Month: October 2017

After reluctantly complying with orders to shut down polling places, it appears the local Catalonian police have had enough of the Spanish Civil Guard's brutality. To wit, videos have surfaced showing members of the local police – known as the Mossos – clashing with Civil Guard officers as they try to stop federal police from storming polling stations and attacking peaceful voters.

Public support for the Mossos has remained high despite the crackdown following the terror attack in late August, and video that emerged earlier showed crowds clapping for Mossos officers as they entered a polling station. One video published by the Spain Report shows Civil Guard riot officers physically pushing Mossos officers as they move to enter a polling station in the town. The Mossos officers resist and push back and an angry confrontation ensues for several seconds.

Earlier, Catalan firemen were caught in tape being beaten by Civil Guard officers armed with clubs as the Catalonians tried to protect civilians attempting to vote.

Another video, published by Civil Guard trade union AUGC, showed Mossos officers facing off with Civil Guard riot squad officers, though it didn't specify where the confrontation took place.

Angry confrontation between Civil Guard riot squads and Catalan Police (Mossos) earlier.
Via @AUGC_Comunica http://pic.twitter.com/eQnyPp9IAT

— The Spain Report (@thespainreport) October 1, 2017

As the Spain Report pointed out, the National Police and Civil Guard had managed to close 92 polling stations in Catalonia by 5 pm. The Catalan government had announced on Friday that there would be 2,315 polling station in total, which means state-level policing actions on Sunday only managed to close 4% of the total, across the region.

The physical clashes followed reports of criminal charges being filed by national police trade unions against their Catalonian counterparts. Five National Police trade unions announced they would take legal action, via criminal complaints, against the Catalan Police (Mossos) and Mossos chief Josep Lluis Trapero for what they believe is a dereliction of duty and for preventing National Police officers from carrying out orders in Catalonia.

"Impunity cannot be allowed in a police force, like the Mossos, which held all of our respect", said the statement:

 

"A large number of regional police officers are professional and honourable. But today's actions open an intense debate about the public security model in our country."

National Police trade unions condemned Catalan Police chiefs' commitment to "separatists' political sectarianism".

"There are no half-truths here: either you are with the law or committing a crime."

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Two years ago, long after we first suggested that the transformation of VIX from a measure of implied market volatility to a reflexive instrument that can be traded – and thus influence the underlying assets whose volatility it was supposed to measure – allowed the VIX to serve as the “fulcrum security” for broad asset manipulation, first the FT, then the WSJ confirmed what we said, namely that pervasive market manipulation was not only possible, but took place on a regular basis, courtesy of the VIX (see “Conspiracy “Fact” – VIX Manipulation Runs The Entire Market” and “Another Rigged Market: Scientific Study Finds Systemic VIX Auction Manipulation“).

Today, one of our favorite hedge fund commentators, One River Asset Mgmt CIO Eric Peters, discussed various market “tipping points” in his latest weekly notes, which emphasized why volatility is no longer a “measurement”, as much as a “target.” More his latest Sunday anecdote:

“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure,” said the Englishman, stepping outside of himself.

 

“That’s Goodhart’s Law.” Charles Goodhart observed that central banks measured money supply, and found certain M1 growth rates to be optimal. But once they targeted that optimal range, M1 lost its value as a measure.

 

Market and economic actors adjusted their behavior to game the M1 system. So central bankers shifted to M2, then M3, and M4.

 

“Investing is obviously not a science, but if it were, we would say that you can’t act on something and observe it at the same time.” French colonialists discovered this in rat infested Hanoi, when they offered a bounty for killing rodents. To receive the reward, the Vietnamese were required to produce severed tails. Soon thereafter, tail-less rats scurried throughout the city. The bounty hunters removed their tails and released them to the filthy sewers to breed. Boosting their bounty.

 

“Investors discover pricing anomalies from the past. And they pile into them, ensuring that for a time they persist.”

 

They mistake the distortions of their wall of money for the wisdom of their observations. They interact with the market as if they’re exogenous, when, in fact, they’ve become endogenous.

“Today’s greatest example of Goodhart’s Law in action can be found in volatility markets.”

 

The VIX index measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500, and is calculated by multiplying expected 30-day variance by 100.

 

As a measure of market fear, it was quite useful, until it became something that could be traded. “The sheer size of outstanding positions in VIX futures, VIX options, ETFs, ETNs and bank volatility selling programs is such that those trading these markets can no longer separate the true measure of volatility from their own actions.”

Or, said simpler, “low volatility” is no longer a description of a market state, rather it is a characterization of the one, and perhaps only, trade strategy that has the explicit blessing of central banks, who themselves do everything in their power to crush volatility as Deutsche Bank’s Aleksandar Kocic explained yesterday in his latest observations of a market in which “shocks no longer shock.”

It is also why average September vol was the lowest on record, and will continue to fall until a “tipping point” hits.

It is also why, as Barclays pointed out last week, as absolute notional Vega across levered and inverse ETFs reached an all time high…

 

… the AUM in inverse VIX ETPs has soared over the past few months and is now in line with long vol ETPs, a situation which has previously occurred only twice since 2009, and as we noted, the only two previous occasions when the AUM of inverse ETPs caught up with their long peers, was after the October 2014 Ebola scare and right after the August 2015 ETFlash crash, when vol sellers emerged after the VIX surge (and when VIX was briefly halted for dissemination on August 24, 2015 when the market literally broke).

 

And speaking of tipping points, here are some further observations from Peters on this topic, first, through the lens of the quant blow up in the “Summer of 2007″…

The statistical arbitrage models had made such strong returns. But as money flowed in, their Sharpe ratios declined from exceptional to great. Then great to good. So on, so forth. But by doubling leverage the Sharpe ratios could be magically restored to their former glory. Doubling leverage required doubling positions, which in turn supported prices, and this lowered volatility – producing strong profits without an appearance of an increase in risk. And that all worked incredibly well, as of course it should, until it blew up.

… then, the Merrill convertible arb “Percent Cheap” fair value model:

Merrill produced a measure called “Percent Cheap.” It allowed you to monitor where convertible bonds traded in relation to fair value. The measure explained the profitability of convertible arbitrage strategies throughout the cycle. The strategy was profitable, consistent. As money flowed in, the funds swelled, until the assets of all convertible arbitrage funds multiplied by their leverage equaled more than the sum of all global convertible bonds. Returns naturally declined to zero. Turned negative. Sparking small redemptions. Then it all imploded.

… a curious look at unexpected feedback loops involving cobras in India…

The British Raj grew concerned by the abundance of venomous cobras in Delhi. A reward was offered for every dead snake. And in they slithered. One by one at first. Then in baskets, barrels. “Our strategy has proved a great success,” announced the Raj, yet still the number of captured cobras swelled. You see, the breeders had entered the business. When Raj learned of this betrayal, the law was abruptly abandoned. And the captive snakes, as worthless as they were abundant on a scale never before seen, were set free. Coiled throughout Delhi.

… and finally through the (imminent) folly of the Swedish Central Bank:

“The objective of monetary policy is to maintain price stability,” declared the Sveriges Riksbank Act. Stability is defined as 2% inflation, itself an oxymoron. “Sustainable growth and high employment are to be supported,” says the Act, though they’re of secondary importance. Inflation is now at the 2% target, a consequence of overnight interest rates at -0.50% and central bank bond buying, which weakened the krona, sparked +5.3% IP growth, +4.1% services output, unprecedented real estate speculation, and surging consumer debt.

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After nearly a decade behind bars, the Juice is finally loose.

After serving more than nine years for a Las Vegas kidnapping and armed robbery, OJ Simpson walked out of a Nevada prison early Sunday to start a new life as a parolee, CNN reported. Earlier this week it had been reported that the former NFL and television star who became the focus of the “trial of the century” after the double-homicide of his ex-wife Nicole Brown Simpson and her companion Ron Goldman, could be released as soon as Monday.

Simpson left High Desert State Prison, located near Las Vegas, Nevada, shortly after midnight local time, and was picked up by an unidentified friend, according to Brooke Keast, a spokeswoman for the Nevada Department of Corrections.

"I told him, 'Don't come back,' and he responded, 'I don't intend to,' " Keast said. "He was upbeat, personable and seemed happy to get on with his life."
Keast added that they released Simpson in the middle of the night to help him avoid the paparazzi.

 

"Our biggest concern was our safety and the public's safety and not wanting anybody, paparazzi, to follow him," Keast said. "He left through a big blue door through the front gatehouse and exited quietly. He looked down because he didn't want to be photographed."

As the New York Post reported yesterday, even before leaving prison, Simpson put the squeeze on television networks, asking for millions of dollars for an exclusive interview.

“He’s not talking for free,” a longtime confidant told The Post. “It has to be the big one because he’s only going to do it one time and it has to be worth his while.”

What exactly would “the big one” look like? Simpson is set to ask for $3 million to $5 million to sit down with the likes of NBC’s Matt Lauer, Megyn Kelly or Lester Holt; ABC’s Robin Roberts and Michael Strahan; or CBS’ newest “60 Minutes” correspondent Oprah Winfrey.

According to NYP, Simpson’s team has reached out to several outlets to gauge their interest. It’s not known if the interest is mutual.

While the major networks maintain that they don’t pay for interviews, it’s an open industry secret that popular shows like Good Morning America, Today and others pay big bucks to “license images and video.”

“They pay and he’s got photos from jail with his family and friends; he’s got some other stuff, too, that people have never seen before and this could be a major deal for any network, any show,” the source said.

Simpson was memorably granted parole in July where he maintained that the armed robbery charges that initially landed him in prison were the result of a misunderstanding between himself and his victim, whom he said later apologized to Simpson for taking sports memorabilia belonging to the former NFL star.

The Nevada Board of Parole Commissioners voted unanimously to release Simpson after he had served nine years of a 33-year sentence.

Before his release, prison officials did an inventory of what he wanted to take with him or leave behind. He walked out of prison with paperwork and "three or four boxes about the size of a microwave," according to Keast.

Inside the boxes were items such as a hot plate, clothing and shower shoes, she said.

Simpson also met with one person who'll become a fixture in his after-prison life: His parole officer, CNN reported.

"They went over what he needs for parole and where he needs to check in, what he should do to get a driver's license, et cetera [and] instructions on what to do once he's out there," Keast said.

Now that he's out of prison, those who know him are not expecting him to become a recluse.

"He's not going to hide," said longtime friend Tom Scotto, who attended Simpson's parole hearing this summer.

Simpson eventually plans to move to Florida. But for now, he'll live in a gated residence with unspecified friends in a wealthy Las Vegas suburb.

via http://ift.tt/2yhqE0R Tyler Durden

Authored by Daniel Nevins via FFWiley.com,

 

REPORTER: “Who will win the World Cup playoff?”

 

ZLATAN: “Only God knows who will go through.”

 

REPORTER: “It’s hard to ask him.”

 

ZLATAN: “You’re talking to him.” 

 

REPORTER: “What did you get your wife for her birthday?”

 

ZLATAN: “Nothing. She already has Zlatan.” 

 

ZLATAN: “I can’t help but laugh at how perfect I am.”

In case you don’t pay attention to soccer, here are three things to know about Zlatan Ibrahimovic:

1. He’s an excellent player.
2. His ego, as you can see, is large.
3. He doesn’t appear to have much in common with Yale University’s Robert Shiller.

I’ll start with the third point and the insightful Shiller, in particular. (I’ll get back to “Ibra” in just a moment.) Shiller wrote an article last week warning of the potential hazards of equity investment. As he often does, he shared a chart showing his cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. He reminded us that the CAPE ratio is “somewhat effective at predicting real returns over a ten-year period.” But this particular article had little to do with ten-year forecasts. Here’s the conclusion (with my emphasis):

In short, the US stock market today looks a lot like it did at the peaks before most of the country’s 13 previous bear markets. This is not to say that a bear market is guaranteed: such episodes are difficult to anticipate, and the next one may still be a long way off…

 

But my analysis should serve as a warning against complacency. Investors who allow faulty impressions of history to lead them to assume too much stock-market risk today may be inviting considerable losses.

He likens today’s market to 1929, 2000, 2007 and other scary market peaks of the past, while pointing to characteristics he considers typical of market peaks. A high CAPE ratio stands at the top of his list, although he also mentions strong earnings and low volatility. Effectively, he says those three indicators should cause us to worry that a bear market could be right around the corner. And he makes useful observations about the CAPE ratio typically being high, earnings growth also somewhat high, and volatility low (although only slightly below average) just before bear markets begin.

With all due respect, though, I think Shiller’s pivot from long-term returns to a short-term outlook was incomplete. Sure, strong earnings and low volatility aren’t necessarily bullish – I get that – but I find it hard to call them bearish, either. My bigger objection, though, is with the CAPE ratio being part of a market-timing argument. (I applaud the “no guarantee” disclaimer, but still.) As a researcher and asset manager, I’ve never found valuation ratios useful for short-term horizons, nor have I found other researchers having much success using them as short-term indicators. From that experience, I would have recommended one more disclaimer for Shiller’s article – that valuation ratios stink for market timing. And I think my disclaimer is more than just a nitpick, for three reasons that I’ll explain with increasing “Ibra-ness.”

“A World Cup without me is nothing to watch, so it is not worthwhile to wait for the World Cup.”

 

—Ibrahimovic after Sweden failed to qualify for the 2014 World Cup finals

First, certain other indicators actually have helped foretell major market turning points. Nearly all of the past 13 bear markets, for example, were explained partly by some combination of sharply rising inflation, high interest rates, poor credit conditions or economic depression. I state that with conviction, but you can judge it yourself by reading our article “Riding the ‘Slide’: Is This What the Next Bear Market Looks Like.” Our research suggests that the most common bear-market conditions are mostly absent today. It uses Shiller’s data, by the way, although it covers bear-market conditions he didn’t consider in his article. Without being as bombastic as Ibra but being self-serving nonetheless, I recommend reading our research alongside Shiller’s for a more complete picture than either article offers on its own. (And while you’re at it, I highly recommend Eric Parnell’s latest for a third perspective.)

“I didn’t injure you on purpose and you know that. If you accuse me again I’ll break both your legs, and that time it will be on purpose.”

 

—Ibrahimovic responding to an accusation from Rafael van der Vaart

Second, the market’s current valuation is like Ibra’s ego – both are inflated. But if you’re Rafael van der Vaart or Pep Guardiola or Lucas Moura and hoping for Ibra to change, you’ll probably be disappointed. He’s not likely to become modest tomorrow just because he’s egotistical today, as if one state triggers the other. And the market won’t become a bear tomorrow just because it’s an expensive bull today. When Ibra’s skills finally erode, though, that’ll be a different story. That’ll be a change in the conditions that feed his ego, just as market forecasters should be concerned with the conditions that feed bulls and bears. In other words, market conditions (such as those mentioned in the preceding paragraph) seem more likely to predict the next bear than indicators calculated from market prices (such as the CAPE ratio).

“First I went left, he did too. Then I went right and he did too. Then I went left again and he went to buy a hot dog.”

 

—Ibrahimovic on how he dribbled around Liverpool defender Stephane Henchoz

Third, the market can be just as tricky as Ibra is with a ball at his feet, which is why you should choose your defenses carefully. In the big picture, your team (portfolio) should have an appropriate balance between attacking and defending elements. When you’re in the moment, though, I would suggest reading short-term outlooks with a degree of skepticism. If you’re prone to biting on feints and head fakes (overtrading), relying on the CAPE ratio for market timing might make it easier for your opponent to dribble around you. And where would that leave you? Apparently, you’d be found somewhere near the hot dog stand.

Conclusions

Like Robert Shiller, we would advise equity investors to have modest expectations for long-term returns (as we advised here). We also advocate diversifying across major asset classes to reduce the damage that could occur in a bear market. But having realistic expectations and diversifying won’t protect against the greatest risk many investors face – the risk of overtrading. Investors tend to sell risky assets at lower prices than they later repurchase them, suggesting that it’s important to build safeguards against overtrading. At a minimum, bullish and bearish indicators should be weighed carefully. By studying which indicators are most likely to predict bulls and bears, investors can build defenses against rash decisions. And that should be especially helpful today, as investors confront an unusually inflated and tricky mark… no, make that a Zlatan Ibrahimovic market.

Author’s note: Shiller’s article caught my attention because he wrote about 13 bear markets shortly after we, too, published an article about 13 bear markets. To identify bear markets, we used Shiller’s data, which he graciously includes on his website. But our 13 bears aren’t exactly the same as his 13 bears, because we defined them differently. If anyone would like to know the differences, just ask and I’ll discuss them in the comments when I have some free time. Also, I took the Ibrahimovic quotes from various websites, such as here, here and here.

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In an incident that's being investigated as a possible "act of terrorism", an unnamed suspect stabbed an Edmonton police constable late Saturday night before trying to ram a truck into a crowd of pedestrians while being chased by police through downtown Edmonton Saturday night, according to the Globe and Mail.

Ultimately, four pedestrians and the officer were injured when the U-Haul truck being driven by the suspect struck them before speeding away down Jasper Avenue, Edmonton police chief Rod Knetch told reporters. The officer is not in critical condition. Knetch could not provide more details about the condition of the pedestrians. The suspect is in custody and appears to have acted alone, the police chief said.

Knetch said an Islamic State flag was found inside the suspect's vehicle, had been seized and was part of the investigation, which now involves the the RCMP-led counterterrorism unit the Integrated National Security Enforcement Team. Knecht said the incidents are being investigated “as an act of terror” and that the attacker acted alone.

The incident happened at 8:15 pm local time near Commonwealth Stadium, when the suspect slammed his Chevy Malibu into a police barricade outside an Edmonton Eskimos-Blue Bombers game, throwing an officer 15 feet into the air. The game was designated military appreciation night.

The driver got out of the Malibu holding a knife and stabbed the officer several times, Knetch said.

The suspect then fled on foot, and, after searching the Malibu, police found identification papers for the suspect – a man in his 30s. Later Saturday night, a police officer stopped a white U-Haul truck at a police checkpoint while the manhunt was still happening, and recognized that the driver's ID bore the same name as the suspect.

The U-Haul driver sped off, leading police on a high-speed chase through downtown Edmonton, which was packed with crowds enjoying a Saturday night on the town. During the chase, the suspect tried to hit pedestrians as he passed by crosswalks and alleyways, before swerving into Jasper Avenue in downtown Edmonton where the truck overturned, and skidded into four people.

According to the Globe and Mail, Austin Elgie, manager of The Pint bar just west of the downtown core, witnessed the truck hitting the crowd.

"We were just standing out front here and basically a U-Haul was heading north down 109th Street and peeled into this smoking alley here where people were having a smoke," he said.

 

"There was like 10 cop cars following him.

Witness Kim Anderson told the Edmonton Sun: "There were people flying and everything. I'm shocked – I just see people flying."

 

Elgie said after the vehicle passed by the steps of the bar, the view was obscured by the corner of the building. But he said it hit a man who was a bar patron.

"I have a registered nurse on my bar team and I grabbed her and had her look after the guy until the ambulance came."

 

"He was breathing and we got him in the ambulance and he was still breathing."

Witnesses told local media they saw a suspect being pulled from the vehicle through the broken windshield and then placed in handcuffs.

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley tweeted her well-wishes to the injured officer.

Our thoughts are with @edmontonpolice member injured on duty tonight & hoping for a speedy recovery. Grateful for our first responders. #yeg

— Rachel Notley (@RachelNotley) October 1, 2017

In a statement issued Sunday morning, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also condemned the violence in Edmonton as a "terrorist attack".

We'll never let violent extremism win. Canadians stand with the injured in Edmonton: https://t.co/4jZLhhbbla

— Justin Trudeau (@JustinTrudeau) October 1, 2017

"The Government of Canada and Canadians stand with the people of Edmonton after the terrorist attack on Saturday that sent an Edmonton Police Service officer to hospital and injured a number of innocent people who were out to cheer on their football team and to enjoy an evening in their city. I am deeply concerned and outraged by this tragedy," he said.

""We cannot – and will not – let violent extremism take root in our communities. We know that Canada's strength comes from our diversity, and we will not be cowed by those who seek to divide us or promote fear. Edmonton is a strong and resilient city, and I am confident that its citizens will support one another to overcome this tragic event."

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Via OilPrice.com,

Fresh off the news of North Korea claiming that the United States has declared war due to U.S. President Trump’s military positioning and contentious rhetoric, a report from FireEye has suggested that the DPRK may be mining something other than coal.

With tensions at an all-time high, North Korea is looking towards new means of pursuing their economic and defensive goals, and following increased cyber-attacks on South Korean cryptocurrency exchanges, it may be possible that North Korea is eyeing bitcoin as a hedge against geopolitical turmoil or even a means of skirting sanctions.

While North Korea has only limited access to petroleum due to increased sanctions and zero proved reserves of its own, the country isn’t without resources. South Korean estimates suggest a possible trillions of dollars’ worth of rare earth minerals waiting to be dug up. These include iron ore, zinc, copper, graphite, gold, silver, magnesite, and approximately $9.7 trillion worth of coal and limestone.

North Korea’s increased belligerence, however, has put a damper on hopes to rebuild the country’s mining sector. As North Korea became increasingly aggressive, the UN began placing bans on the country’s metal exports. And this year, following the increase in weapons testing, the UN upped the restrictions, including fresh bans on coal, iron, and iron ore exports, with China soon following suit.

Now, North Korea is completely shut off from, or with very limited access to the import or export of nearly every conceivable commodity.

Many countries have even imposed harsher financial sanctions on North Korea as global pressure for action intensified. Japan and China have suspended all North Korean transactions and on Tuesday, September 26, the United States imposed greater sanctions, targeting North Korean financial institutions and regime members acting as representatives for the country’s banks in China, Russia, Libya and the United Arab Emirates

So not surprisingly, Kim Jong-Un is looking for a solution, and cryptocurrencies seem to have peaked his interest.

King Jong-Un’s regime is certainly no stranger to cryptocurrencies. Between 2013-2015, the country hacked South Korean bitcoin exchanges, stealing approximately 100-million won (nearly US$90,000) in Bitcoin every month. Additionally, the country was linked to the Lazraus Group which was reportedly behind the WannaCry ransomware that infected over 200,000 computers across 150 countries.

With the country’s tech-smart regime, and coal exports banned, North Korea may have found a use for its most abundant resource – bitcoin mining.

Recorded Future, an intelligence research firm backed by Google Venture and In-Q-Tel (a venture capital firm funded by the CIA), released a report on North Korean internet activity, including what was identified as the start of bitcoin mining by users on May 17.

In an interview with VOA Korean, Priscilla Moriuchi, the director of strategic threat development at Recorded Future explained: "We weren't able to determine the volumes, like how many bitcoin they can generate per certain time period. We could just see activity.” Moriuchi added that the intelligence firm had two hypotheses regarding the activity – the first being a group connected to the government, the other being an individual who had access to the internet.

Speculation leans to a connection to high-ranking officials in Kim Jong-Un’s regime, Moriuchi noted. Due to the limited access individuals have to the internet in North Korea, and especially the lack of expensive equipment necessary to pull off such a feat, it is likely that the government played a significant role in the mining activity noted by Recorded Future and In-Q-Tel.

North Korea’s biggest trading partner and de facto leader in the Bitcoin world, China, may also play some role in this developing story.

The founder of Bitcoin NYC Meetup, Jonathan Mohan, noted: "It wouldn't surprise me if, perhaps, hypothetically, North Korea were to have pre-existing business relationships in China that wouldn't mind purchasing bitcoin from them, and then just disseminating it to the Chinese market as you would with any other bitcoin."

Interestingly, this string of news comes just after China’s clamp down on cryptocurrencies, with many of its major exchanges planning to shut down at the end of the month. CNBC has noted that the Chinese general administration of customs did not respond to requests for comment.

“North Korea using these technologies is not exactly a loophole to the sanctions — that could be overstating the power of bitcoin itself,” Yaya Fanusie, a former CIA counterterrorism analyst, told The Washington Times. “But you have a cat-and-mouse game evolving, and this is just the type of emerging technology that the [U.S. intelligence community] needs to develop expertise to understand."

As geopolitical rules and boundaries become grayer, how this situation unfolds will surely be something to keep an eye on.

Luke McNamara, a researcher at FireEye and author of the September 11 report notes “There are variety of things they could do to cash out.”

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One day after Rex Tillerson revealed for the first time that the US has been in direct – if secret – contact with the government of North Korea over its missile and nuclear tests, a stunning revelation considering that administration officials have until this point insisted that there has been only limited, indirect contact between the White House and the Kim regime,  Trump, in his latest Sunday morning tirade, tweeted his Secretary of State to effectively stop negotiating with “Little Rocket Man” and to save his energy as Save your energy as Trump will “do what has to be done.”

“I told Rex Tillerson, our wonderful Secretary of State, that he is wasting his time trying to negotiate with Little Rocket Man… Save your energy Rex, we’ll do what has to be done!”

I told Rex Tillerson, our wonderful Secretary of State, that he is wasting his time trying to negotiate with Little Rocket Man…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 1, 2017

…Save your energy Rex, we’ll do what has to be done!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 1, 2017

According to a handful of kneejerk reactions by conflict analysts, Trump’s statement is effectively an admission that war appears inevitable as diplomatic negotiations, largely for optical purposes, are doomed to failure. Of course, this could be just Trump’s latest attempt at posturing, coupled with a resumption in bilateral escalations with North Korea. It is also a very troubling, and cavalier way to gamble with millions of people’s lives.

Trump is now basically saying that he wants nuclear war with N. Korea ???? https://t.co/4KqHxwemSG

— Gissur Simonarson (@GissiSim) October 1, 2017

As reported yesterday, during a press conference on Saturday in China, Tillerson said “we are probing, so stay tuned,” when asked about how he might begin a conversation with Kim Jong-un. Following Tillerson’s surprising admission of high level contact with Pyongyang, the NYT compared the secret backchanneling to a strategy used by the Obama administration to help forge what became the Iran deal – a comparison that Tillerson swiftly pushed back against. “We are not going to put a deal together with North Korea that’s as flimsy as the one in Iran,” he said. He added that the situation is different and that the North already has nuclear weapons, while Iran was still years away from obtaining them. 

“We ask, ‘Would you like to talk?’ We have lines of communication to Pyongyang – we’re not in a dark situation, a blackout. We have a couple, three channels open to Pyongyang,” he added, speaking at the residence of the US ambassador to Beijing after a meeting with China’s top leadership. He would not say if the North Koreans had responded, beyond a heated exchange of threats in recent weeks. Trump has repeatedly threatened to “totally destroy” North Korea, while the North has threatened to conduct a nuclear test over the Pacific Ocean, and to shoot down US aircraft flying in international waters if they come uncomfortably close to North Korean territory. 

When asked whether those channels ran through China, he shook his head. “Directly,” he said. “We have our own channels.”Tillerson added that the most important thing was to lower the tensions between the two countries.

“I think everyone would like for it to calm down.” Everyone, except for Trump it appears, who is now – at least based on his public tweeting – attempting to sabotage the diplomatic process and proceed right to the next step. Which merely further underscores why, as the WaPo reported last week, North Korea has been quietly seeking the help of Republican-linked analysts in Washington to “figure out Trump.”

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We noted yesterday that "if Catalonia secedes from Spain…in terms of the debt sustainability parameters laid down by the Treaty of Maastricht, it’d be the Eurozone debt crisis 2.0…" and it is clear by the thuggish brutality of Spain's police that Rajoy will do anything to ensure this vote does not go ahead as the latest poll data shows a massive surge in favor of independence, as government fascism has clearly triggered unintended consequences that look set to spirtal out of control.

As MishTalk.com's Mike Shedlock notes, numerous sites keep posting stats that claim a majority in Catalonia want a vote but do not support independence. I have stated those polls are old and likely wrong thanks to the pitiful tactics of prime minister Mariano Rajoy.A new last-minute poll suggests I have this correct.
 

Please consider Huge upsurge in support for independence is revealed in world exclusive final Catalan poll.

A SENSATIONAL new poll which The National is publishing on the eve of the Catalan independence referendum shows an upsurge in support for independence that varies dramatically depending on whether or not Spain’s central government boycotts the vote.

 

The telephone poll was carried out over the last three weeks and completed on Thursday, but the results could not be published in Catalonia. They were released to The National yesterday.

 

Two scenarios were put to a sample of nearly 3300 voters: “With the current situation in Catalonia, with Spanish government and main Spanish political parties calling for a boycott of the referendum,” and “a referendum agreed with the Spanish authorities”.

 

Jordi Sanchez, president of the Catalan National Congress, welcomed the results and told The National: “This poll confirms there’s a majority of people that want to vote and will vote, and this can’t be stopped by any police or state of emergency.

Ok Rajoy, what are you going to do?

If there is a vote, the expected results are pretty clear.

The Spanish government claims most of the polling places are closed?

 

The Catalonia government says the vote will take place and millions will show up.

Which side is correct?

We will find out within hours. Voting day has arrived in Spain.

 

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