Month: November 2017

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Are we about to see chaos in the streets in major cities all over America? 

Antifa and other radical leftist groups are promising that a series of protests will begin on November 4th that will never end until “the Trump/Pence regime” is “removed from power”.  And as you will see below, Antifa has openly and publicly embraced violence and the Department of Homeland Security says that they have engaged in domestic terrorism.  Hopefully these “protests” will fizzle out after a few weeks, because political organizations that believe in “the necessary use of violence” have no place in our society.

Amazingly, there are still some out there that are claiming that the radical left is not planning anything for November 4th.  The following comes directly from refusefascism.org, which is one of the key websites for Antifa and other radical leftist groups…

ON NOVEMBER 4, 2017:

 

We will gather in the streets and public squares of cities and towns across this country, at first many thousands declaring that this whole regime is illegitimate and that we will not stop until our single demand is met: This Nightmare Must End: the Trump/Pence Regime Must Go!

 

Our protest must grow day after day and night after night—thousands becoming hundreds of thousands, and then millions—determined to act to put a stop to the grave danger that the Trump/Pence Regime poses to the world by demanding that this whole regime be removed from power.

 

Our actions will reflect the values of respect for all of humanity and the world we want—in stark contrast to the hate and bigotry of the Trump/Pence fascist regime.

 

Our determination to persist and not back down will compel the whole world to take note. Every force and faction in the power structure would be forced to respond to our demand. The cracks and divisions among the powers already evident today will sharpen and widen. As we draw more and more people forward to stand up, all of this could lead to a situation where this illegitimate regime is removed from power.

That sounds pretty serious to me.

Hopefully they are not able to back up their words with actions.

I have seen various lists of cities were Antifa protests are planned floating around the Internet, but I felt that it was important to go right to the source.  According to refusefascism.org, this is the official list of cities where activists will be gathering on November 4th…

• Austin
• Atlanta
• Boston
• Chicago
• Cincinnati
• Cleveland
• Honolulu
• Indianapolis
• Los Angeles
• Minneapolis
• New York City
• Omak
• Philadelphia
• Pittsfield
• Portland
• Salem
• San Francisco
• Seattle
• Tucson

Let us hope that none of these events become violent, but we have seen violence from Antifa on numerous occasions since the election, and this is an organization that says that “the use of force is intrinsic to their political philosophy”.  The following comes from a startling article in the Hill…

Anti-fascist activists, or “antifa,” increasingly mobilized in the wake of President Trump’s election, are unapologetic about what they describe as the necessary use of violence to combat authoritarianism.

 

While both experts on the movement and activists within it emphasize that not everyone who participates in anti-fascist activism engages in violence, they say the use of force is intrinsic to their political philosophy.

At this point everyone knows what Antifa is all about, and my hope is that Republicans and Democrats will stand united in denouncing their violent tactics. 

For example, just consider what happened at a recent event in Minnesota…

Hundreds of masked protesters at the University of Minnesota recently conducted a violent protest against a speech by conservative activist and YouTube commentator Lauren Southern.

 

Fights erupted outside the event, forcing police to intervene. Members of the conservative group Collegians for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT), which hosted the event, say they were “tagged” and set upon by masked antifa activists who spat on them, hit them, shoved them off bicycles and maced them.

These crazed lunatics actually believe that Donald Trump is a modern day version of Adolf Hitler, and therefore they believe that the use of violence is justified in order to prevent a new “Nazi regime” from taking over America.

Of course that is complete and utter nonsense, and in their zeal to attack conservatives, Antifa is actually becoming what they say that they hate.  If anyone can be characterized as “brownshirts”, it is the Antifa thugs that are willing to use violence against those that would dare to disagree with their radical leftist agenda.  According to Politico, their increasingly violent tactics have caused the Department of Homeland Security to officially classify their activities as “domestic terrorist violence”…

Federal authorities have been warning state and local officials since early 2016 that leftist extremists known as “antifa” had become increasingly confrontational and dangerous, so much so that the Department of Homeland Security formally classified their activities as “domestic terrorist violence,” according to interviews and confidential law enforcement documents obtained by POLITICO.

Are you starting to understand how dangerous these guys are?

And there is actually evidence that radical leftists have been cultivating ties with Islamic terrorists in the Middle East.  The following comes from a report that was published by the Daily Mail…

A secret FBI investigation of the violent ‘resistance’ movement on college campuses against President Trump has led to an alarming discovery – the collusion between American anarchists and foreign terrorists in the Islamic State and Al qaeda, according to a confidential ‘Informational Report’ by FBI field offices.

 

‘There is clearly overwhelming evidence that there are growing ties between U.S. radicals and the Islamic State, as well as several [ISIS] offshoots and splinter groups,’ stated the FBI field report, which was delivered to Acting Director Andrew McCabe on July 11, 2017, and which is being published for the first time in my new book All Out War: The Plot to Destroy Trump.

An atmosphere of violence and fear creates an environment in which many conservatives are afraid to speak out.

In fact, a survey that was just released discovered that 58 percent of Americans “believe the political climate prevents them from sharing their own political beliefs”…

The Cato 2017 Free Speech and Tolerance Survey, a new national poll of 2,300 U.S. adults, finds that 71% Americans believe that political correctness has silenced important discussions our society needs to have. The consequences are personal—58% of Americans believe the political climate prevents them from sharing their own political beliefs.

 

Democrats are unique, however, in that a slim majority (53%) do not feel the need to self-censor. Conversely, strong majorities of Republicans (73%) and independents (58%) say they keep some political beliefs to themselves.

But this is not what our founders intended.  Freedom of speech is in the Bill of Rights for a reason, because without it we would be in a world of trouble.

As the radical left becomes more violent, we need to become bolder than ever.  As for me, I will continue to speak out about what we need to do to turn this country around…

No matter how crazy they get, we can never allow Antifa to intimidate us.

We are in a battle for the future of America, and the fate of our children and our grandchildren is hanging in the balance.  The radical left must not win, because if they do they will transform our society into a totalitarian socialist “utopia” that will look nothing like the nation that our forefathers originally founded.

*  *  *

Michael Snyder is a Republican candidate for Congress in Idaho’s First Congressional District, and you can learn how you can get involved in the campaign on his official website. His new book entitled “Living A Life That Really Matters” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.

via http://ift.tt/2z6k6Qm Tyler Durden

Over the past week, rumors have swirled that Amazon may be preparing to accept bitcoin as a form of payment, a decision which would lend immediate credibility and legitimacy to the cryptocurrency. Last week, Die Welt reported that fintech sources in Silicon Valley were suggesting that the global online retail giant could soon integrate Bitcoin as a payment option.

When questioned, an Amazon spokesman replied to the German publication in a predictably generic fashion: “(Amazon) opts to include new products or services only when these are useful for our customers – until that point, we do not engage in rough speculation”, CoinTelegraph reported.

Photo credit: Cointelegraph

Amazon has faced years of lobbying and rumors regarding its Bitcoin relationship ever since smaller competitor Overstock (which recently announced plans to raise capital via an ICO) became a pioneering virtual currency adherent in 2013. While multiple other midsize operators have since engaged with Bitcoin, Amazon’s participation would still be a first-of-its-kind move. Meanwhile, several dedicated services already exist to offer purchases with Bitcoin from their websites through the intermediary of gift cards.

And while Amazon has refused to commit on the record, rumors that the world’s biggest online retailer may be adopting cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ethereum, got a renewed push today when CoinDesk reported that according to industry news site DomainNameWire, Amazon has registered three cryptocurrency-related web domains, online records show.

According to information from Whois Lookup, three domains – “amazonethereum.com,” “amazoncryptocurrency.com” and “amazoncryptocurrencies.com” – were registered on Oct. 31. The domains are linked to Amazon Technologies, Inc., a subsidiary of Amazon.com, Inc. that has been attributed to past patent filings from the e-commerce company.

Phone numbers listed on the registration documents connect to Amazon’s legal department, though a representative of that office could not be reached by press time.

While coindesk admits that as of this moment, “it’s not entirely clear what purpose the domain names will serve” the mere fact that Amazon has telegraphed its intentions vis-a-vis the crypto space may be sufficient to boost demand for the digital currency even more, as the eventual acceptance by Amazon would be widely seen as a universal stamp of approval.  What is interesting is that Amazon may be branching out beyond merely the generic “bitcoin” and into its biggest competitor, which arguable has broader corporate acceptance, ethereum.

Then again, Amazon may be simply moving to safeguard its brand. Back in 2013, Amazon secured “amazonbitcoin.com,” which currently redirects to Amazon’s main page – an arrangement that further suggests the protective intent of the registration.

Alternatively, Amazon could be seeking to avoid confusion between cryptocurrencies and Amazon Coin, a virtual currency product introduced in 2013 that serves as an online payment method for customers.

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In a new bombshell report, Vanity Fair says that for the first time since the Mueller investigation began earlier this year, key Trump allies in the West Wing are starting to worry that the notion of an impeachment might be slightly more than just a Democratic pipe dream.  As former aide Sam Nunberg said, Mueller’s indictment of Paul Manafort has sparked concerns in the White House that Mueller has every intention of parsing through every Trump/Kushner financial dealing until he uncovers something incriminating.

Until now, Robert Mueller has haunted Donald Trump’s White House as a hovering, mostly unseen menace. But by securing indictments of Paul Manafort and Rick Gates, and a surprise guilty plea from foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos, Mueller announced loudly that the Russia investigation poses an existential threat to the president. “Here’s what Manafort’s indictment tells me: Mueller is going to go over every financial dealing of Jared Kushner and the Trump Organization,” said former Trump campaign aide Sam Nunberg. “Trump is at 33 percent in Gallup. You can’t go any lower. He’s fucked.”

 

The first charges in the Mueller probe have kindled talk of what the endgame for Trump looks like, according to conversations with a half-dozen advisers and friends of the president. For the first time since the investigation began, the prospect of impeachment is being considered as a realistic outcome and not just a liberal fever dream. According to a source, advisers in the West Wing are on edge and doing whatever they can not to be ensnared. One person close to Dina Powell and Gary Cohn said they’re making sure to leave rooms if the subject of Russia comes up.

While he has refrained so far from publicly criticizing Special Counsel Mueller, Vanity Fair says the President is growing increasingly frustrated and privately lashing out at his own legal team and even son-in-law Jared Kushner, who some around Trump have described as the “worst political adviser in the White House in modern history.”

Trump, meanwhile, has reacted to the deteriorating situation by lashing out on Twitter and venting in private to friends. He’s frustrated that the investigation seems to have no end in sight. “Trump wants to be critical of Mueller,” one person who’s been briefed on Trump’s thinking says. “He thinks it’s unfair criticism. Clinton hasn’t gotten anything like this. And what about Tony Podesta? Trump is like, When is that going to end?”

 

According to two sources, Trump has complained to advisers about his legal team for letting the Mueller probe progress this far. Speaking to Steve Bannon on Tuesday, Trump blamed Jared Kushner for his role in decisions, specifically the firings of Mike Flynn and James Comey, that led to Mueller’s appointment, according to a source briefed on the call. When Roger Stone recently told Trump that Kushner was giving him bad political advice, Trump agreed, according to someone familiar with the conversation. “Jared is the worst political adviser in the White House in modern history,” Nunberg said. “I’m only saying publicly what everyone says behind the scenes at Fox News, in conservative media, and the Senate and Congress.”

Focusing on the Kushner angle, Trump is reportedly increasingly blaming his son-in-law for his role in decisions that led to the appointment of special counsel Robert Mueller.  In a call Tuesday to former White House chief strategist Stephen Bannon, Trump put blame on Kushner for the part he took in choices to fire former national security adviser Michael Flynn and former FBI director James Comey, Vanity Fair reported.

Roger Stone also recently said Kushner wasn’t giving Trump good advice — a sentiment which Trump reportedly agreed with, according to someone familiar with the conversation. Sam Nunberg, a former campaign aide to President Trump who was fired, echoed the statement.

“Jared is the worst political adviser in the White House in modern history,” Nunberg said. “I’m only saying publicly what everyone says behind the scenes at Fox News, in conservative media, and the Senate and Congress.”

Meanwhile, former Chief Strategist Steve Bannon is apparently also increasingly concerned that the establishment GOP might jump at the opportunity to “fuck over Trump” by supporting impeachment proceedings.  Among other things, Bannon has proposed that Trump hire a more aggressive head lawyer and go on the offensive to “defund Mueller’s investigation or limit its scope.”

But these soft-power approaches are being criticized by Trump allies including Steve Bannon and Roger Stone, who both believe establishment Republicans are waiting for a chance to impeach Trump. “The establishment has proven time and time again they will fuck Trump over,” a Bannon ally told me.

 

In a series of phone calls with Trump on Monday and Tuesday, Bannon told the president to shake up the legal team by installing an aggressive lawyer above Cobb, according to two sources briefed on the call. Bannon has also discussed ways to pressure Congress to defund Mueller’s investigation or limit its scope. “Mueller shouldn’t be allowed to be a clean shot on goal,” a Bannon confidant told me. “He must be contested and checked. Right now he has unchecked power.”

 

Bannon’s sense of urgency is being fueled by his belief that Trump’s hold on power is slipping. The collapse of Obamacare repeal, and the dimming chances that tax reform will pass soon—many Trump allies are deeply pessimistic about its prospects—have created the political climate for establishment Republicans to turn on Trump. Two weeks ago, according to a source, Bannon did a spitball analysis of the Cabinet to see which members would remain loyal to Trump in the event the 25th Amendment were invoked, thereby triggering a vote to remove the president from office. Bannon recently told people he’s not sure if Trump would survive such a vote. “One thing Steve wants Trump to do is take this more seriously,” the Bannon confidant told me. “Stop joking around. Stop tweeting.”

So what comes next: is the end nigh for the Trump administration, torn apart by internal strife and intrigue, especially if it fails to pass tax reform, or will the administration simply slam Vanity Fair’s reporting – as Bannon did three weeks ago after the publication reported that the former chief strategist had lost faith in Trump’s ability to complete his current term – and press on (with or without Kushner)?  And how will Mueller’s probe impact any/all of this? We look forward to the answer, knowing that no matter the final outcome, stocks will simply keep grinding to new, record highs.

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In a surprising development that could undercut Gov. Andrew Cuomo's insistence that there was "no evidence of a wider plot" in connection with last night's grisly rampage in Lower Manhattan, the FBI is reportedly looking for information on a second man in connection with the attack that left eight people dead and nearly a dozen injured.

The bureau on Wednesday issued a poster saying it is seeking the public’s help with information about 32-year-old Uzbek Mukhammadzoir Kadirov. The poster doesn’t say why investigators want to know more about the man.

BREAKING: The FBI is seeking information about a second individual in relation to Tuesday's attack in Manhattan https://t.co/IwbeZeM6O5 http://pic.twitter.com/L6wsXO3A07

— CNN (@CNN) November 1, 2017

The poster says Kadirov was born in Uzbekistan, like 29-year-old Sayfullo Saipov, the suspected terrorist who drove a rented Home Depot truck down a bike lane on the West Side Highway running over pedestrians and cyclists before colliding with a school bus. aipov was charged Wednesday in a criminal complaint in the Tuesday afternoon attack that was the deadliest terror attack in NYC since 9/11.

 

 

via http://ift.tt/2lH9NiO Tyler Durden

After years of surging premiums and deductibles, will 2018 finally be the year that America’s middle class throws in the towel and brings the whole scheme crashing down? 

While we won’t know the answer to that question for at least a couple of months, one thing is certain…if it happens it will most definitely be the result of the Trump administration’s efforts to undermine the legislation and not the culmination of years of soaring costs that has rendered healthcare unaffordable for most American families.  Well, at least that’s the The Wall Street Journal‘s assessment of the situation:

Consumers will begin signing up Wednesday to take part in the Affordable Care Act next year, kicking off a crucial six-week stretch that could test the law’s durability amid Republican leaders’ continuing desire to see it repealed.

 

This year’s annual open-enrollment period, the fifth in the ACA’s history, faces more uncertainty than previous years, since the Trump administration has opted to cut the sign-up period by half and pull back $116 million that had been designated for advertising and outreach.

 

Health analysts widely expect the number of people who purchase insurance through the law’s exchanges to dwindle as a result, fueling a partisan debate over whether the Obama-era law is sinking of its own accord or being undercut by the administration’s actions.

 

About 12 million people selected or were re-enrolled in the exchanges last year, with about 10.3 million of those actually paying premiums and obtaining coverage in 2017. Analysts expect the number of sign-ups to fall by at least one million during this open-enrollment period, which extends from Nov. 1 through Dec. 15.

Of course, as Bloomberg crisply demonstrated by highlighting the health insurance experience of Richard Taylor, Obamacare’s surging premiums had already rendered the product completely unobtainable for a broad swath of the American middle class long before Trump moved into the White House.  As Bloomberg notes, Taylor is one of the unfortunate Americans who makes too much money to qualify for subsidies but is self-employed and thus forced to purchase insurance on the private exchange.

For some lower-income people in Obamacare, the rising premiums President Donald Trump has talked so much about will barely be felt at all. Others, particularly those with higher incomes, will feel the sharp increases when insurance sign-ups begin Wednesday.

 

Richard Taylor is one of the people on the wrong end. The 61-year-old, self-employed Oklahoman has meticulously tracked his medical costs since 1994. In 2013, he signed up for an Affordable Care Act plan for the law’s first year offering coverage to millions of Americans.

 

Four years ago, annual premiums for a mid-level “silver” plan to cover his family totaled $10,072.44. For 2017, they were $21,392.40—up 112 percent.

 

“This is crazy. This is absolutely crazy,” Taylor said. “All I’m waiting on is to get on Medicare.”

Alas, fixing a broken system is hardly the concern of Washington D.C. politicians who will inevitably continue to ignore the consequences of a failed piece of legislation and focus instead on clever media attack ads and tweets designed to make sure the blame falls on the opposite party.

Democrats complain that President Donald Trump’s actions are prompting the very problems Republicans cite as evidence of the law’s failure. “In the end, if Republicans can tank open enrollment, they can get more momentum to try repeal again,” said Brad Woodhouse, executive director of protect Our Care, a Democratic advocacy group.

 

The Trump administration has pared funds for publicizing the open-enrollment dates and for paying on-the-ground assisters who help people shop for coverage. The Department of Health and Human Services also plans to take down the law’s main website, healthcare.gov, from midnight to noon on nearly every Sunday of the sign-up period.

 

Advocates also say the ACA’s online window-shopping tool, which allows customers to compare plans ahead of open enrollment, has been malfunctioning, sowing further confusion. Federal health officials have acknowledged the issues.

For those who missed it, before you rush out to buy your Obamacare plan today you should probably take a peak at the preview below of how much your premiums are going to increase in 2018…

* * *

A new study conducted by Avalere and released earlier today found that Obamacare rates will surge an average of 34% across the country in 2018.  Of course, this is in addition to the 113% average premium increase from 2013 and 2017, which brings the total 5-year increase to a staggering 185%.

Meanwhile, and to our complete shock no less, Avalere would like for you to know that the rate increases are almost entirely due to the Trump administration’s “failure to pay for cost-sharing reductions”…which is a completely reasonable guess if you’re willing to ignore the fact that 2018 premium increases are roughly in-line with the 29% constantly annualized growth rates experienced over the past 4 years before Trump ever moved into the White House…but that’s just math so who cares?

New analysis from Avalere finds that the 2018 exchange market will see silver premiums rise by an average of 34%. According to Avalere’s analysis of filings from Healthcare.gov states, exchange premiums for the most popular type of exchange plan (silver) will be 34% higher, on average, compared to last year.

 

“Plans are raising premiums in 2018 to account for market uncertainty and the federal government’s failure to pay for cost-sharing reductions,” said Caroline Pearson, senior vice president at Avalere. “These premium increases may allow insurers to remain in the market and enrollees in all regions to have access to coverage.”

 

Avalere experts attribute premium increases to a number of factors, including elimination of cost-sharing reduction (CSR) payments, lower than anticipated enrollment in the marketplace, limited insurer participation, insufficient action by the government to reimburse plans that cover higher cost enrollees (e.g., via risk corridors), and general volatility around the policies governing the exchanges. The vast majority of exchange enrollees are subsidized and can avoid premium increases, if they select the lowest or second lowest cost silver plan in their region. However, some unsubsidized consumers who pay the full premium cost may choose not to enroll for 2018 due to premium increases.

Of course, not all residents are treated equally when it comes to premium hikes.  So far, Iowa is winning the award for greatest percentage increase at 69%, with Wyoming, Utah and Virginia close behind. 

On an absolute basis, Wyoming wins with the average 50 year old expected to drop nearly $1,200 per month (or roughly the cost of a mortgage) on health insurance premiums. 

So what say you?  Have we finally reached the tipping point where enough full-paying Obamacare customers will simply forego insurance that they can no longer afford and cause the whole system to come crashing down?

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Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

Here’s the story in a nutshell: Ultra low interest rates mark a shift away from people’s wealth residing in their savings and pension plans, and into to so-called wealth residing in their homes, which are bought with ever growing levels of debt. When interest rates rise, they will lose that so-called wealth.

It is grand theft auto on an unparalleled scale, and it’s a piece of genius, because while people are getting robbed in plain daylight, they actually think they’re winning. But as I wrote back in March of this year, home sales, and bubbles, are the only thing that keeps our economies humming.

We haven’t learned a thing since March, and we haven’t learned a thing for many years. People need a place to live, and they fall for the scheme hook line and sinker. Which in a way is a good thing because the economy would have been dead without that ignorance, but at the same time it’s not because it’s a temporary relief only and the end result will be all the more painful for it.

Whatever Yellen decides as per rates, or Draghi, it doesn’t really matter anymore, this sucker’s going down something awful. This is a global issue. Housing bubbles have been blown not only in the Anglosphere, though they are strong there, many other countries have them as well, Scandinavia, Netherlands, even Germany and France. It’s what ultra low rates do.

First, here’s what I said in March:

Our Economies Run On Housing Bubbles

What we have invented to keep big banks afloat for a while longer is ultra low interest rates, NIRP, ZIRP etc. They create the illusion of not only growth, but also of wealth. They make people think a home they couldn’t have dreamt of buying not long ago now fits in their ‘budget’. That is how we get them to sign up for ever bigger mortgages. And those in turn keep our banks from falling over.

 

Record low interest rates have become the only way that private banks can create new money, and stay alive (because at higher rates hardly anybody can afford a mortgage). It’s of course not just the banks that are kept alive, it’s the entire economy. Without the ZIRP rates, the mortgages they lure people into, and the housing bubbles this creates, the amount of money circulating in our economies would shrink so much and so fast the whole shebang would fall to bits.

 

That’s right: the survival of our economies today depends one on one on the existence of housing bubbles. No bubble means no money creation means no functioning economy.

What we should do in the short term is lower private debt levels (drastically, jubilee style), and temporarily raise public debt to encourage economic activity, aim for more and better jobs. But we’re doing the exact opposite: austerity measures are geared towards lowering public debt, while they cut the consumer spending power that makes up 60-70% of our economies. Meanwhile, housing bubbles raise private debt through the -grossly overpriced- roof.

 

This is today’s general economic dynamic. It’s exclusively controlled by the price of debt. However, as low interest rates make the price of debt look very low, the real price (there always is one, it’s just like thermodynamics) is paid beyond interest rates, beyond the financial markets even, it’s paid on Main Street, in the real economy. Where the quality of jobs, if not the quantity, has fallen dramatically, and people can only survive by descending ever deeper into ever more debt.

Australia’s housing boom has been a thing of beauty, with New Zealand, especially Wellington and Auckland, following close behind. UBS now says the Oz bubble is over. Prices are still rising quite a bit though.

Fresh New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern has announced new policies to deter foreign buyers from purchasing more property in the country. She may not like what that does to the country’s economy. Most new Zealanders can no longer afford property in major centers, and forcing prices down this way will expose many present owners to margin calls and foreclosures.

Moreover, because Australian banks own their New Zealand peers, if the Aussie boom is really gone, these banks are going to get hit so hard they’ll take down New Zealand with them. Close your eyes and put your fingers in your ears.

Australia’s Housing Boom Is ‘Officially Over’

The housing boom that has seen Australian home prices more than double since the turn of the century is “officially over,” after data showed prices now flatlining, UBS said. National house prices were unchanged in October from September, while annual growth has slowed to 7% from more than 10% as recently as July, CoreLogic data released Wednesday showed. “There is now a persistent and sharp slowdown unfolding,” UBS economists led by George Tharenou said in a report. “This suggests a tightening of financial conditions is unfolding, which we expect to weigh on consumption growth via a fading household-wealth effect.”

 

An end to Australia’s property boom will be welcome news for first-time buyers, who have struggled to break into the market after surging prices propelled Sydney past London and New York to be the second-most expensive housing market. Less impressed may be property investors, already squeezed by regulatory lending curbs that drove up mortgage rates. The cooling housing market may encourage the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates at a record low. A rate hike would be undesirable as it would put further downward pressure on dwelling prices, said Diana Mousina, senior economist at AMP Capital Investors.

But perhaps a bigger, and more surprising, story is shaping up in the US. Looks like the American housing bubble is back with a vengeance. It’s always amusing to see claims that this is due to a lack of supply. The real problem is not supply, but artificially fabricated demand. Fabricated by low rates. Though the NAR is not known for its accuracy (it’s a PR firm), this Bloomberg piece is still relevant.

Homes Are Getting Snapped Up at the Fastest Pace in 30 Years

Homes are sitting on the market for the shortest time in 30 years, according to an annual report on homebuyers and sellers published today by the National Association of Realtors. The typical home spent just three weeks on the market, according to the report, which focused on about 8,000 homebuyers who purchased their home in the year ending in June. That was down from four weeks in the year ending June 2016 and 11 weeks in 2012, when the U.S. housing market was still reeling from the foreclosure crisis.

 

It was the shortest time since the NAR report began including data on how long homes spend on the market, in 1987. Buyers are snapping up homes quickly at a time when for-sale listings are in short supply, forcing them to compete. The number of available properties declined in September, according to NAR’s monthly report on existing home sales, marking the 28th consecutive month of year-on-year decline in inventory. In addition to moving fast, buyers also had to pony up to close the deal. 42% of buyers paid at least the listing price, the highest share since the NAR survey started keeping track in 2007.

Where the fine bubble plan runs astray is in affordability. Ultra low rates can encourage sales, but that also raises prices, and if and when wages do not keep up there must be a point where you hit a wall. In the US that wall is fast approaching, suggests Tyler Durden:

US Homes Have Never Been More Unaffordable

Just under a year ago, US home prices finally surpassed their prior all time highs, one decade after the 2006 bubble… and haven’t looked back since. Which, all else equal, would be great news for America, where the bulk of middle-class wealth is not in the stock market contrary to conventional wisdom, but in its biggest, and most illiquid asset-cum-investment: one’s home. There is just one problem: while house prices are once again hitting new all time highs every month, household incomes have failed to keep up; in fact, as the Political Calculations blog shows, in the past two years there has been a distinct trend in home affordability, or lack thereof.

[..] starting in September 2015, the TTM average median new home sale price in the U.S. has been rising at an average rate of $906 per month. That’s the good news; the bad news is that in terms of affordability, the ratio of the trailing twelve month averages of median new home sale prices to median household income in the U.S. has risen to an all time high of 5.454, which following revisions in the data for new home sale prices, was recorded in July 2017. The initial value for September 2017 is 5.437. In other words, the median new home in the US has never been more unaffordable in terms of current income.

Never more unaffordable is a bold statement, but it’s probably correct. The graph only goes back as far as 1987, but that should do. Another angle on the same issue, also from Tyler:

Home Prices In All US Cities Grow Faster Than Wages… And Then There’s Seattle

US national home prices are up 6.07% YoY in August – the fastest rate since June 2014. We note this data is for August – before the hurricanes. Seattle (up 13.2%), Las Vegas (up 8.6%), and San Diego (up 7.8%) were the top three cities in terms of year-over-year price appreciation; all cities showed gains of at least 3%. Pushing home prices to a new record high…

 

“Home-price increases appear to be unstoppable,” David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee, said in a statement. “At the same time, “measures of affordability are beginning to slide, indicating that the pool of buyers is shrinking, and the Fed’s interest-rate hikes are likely to push mortgage rates higher over time, “removing a key factor supporting rising home prices,” he said.

There’s nothing anyone can do to raise wages, and while Yellen may claim not to understand why wages and inflation refuse to shine, it’s not that hard. Whatever is called a job these days is America didn’t use to be labeled that. We’ve all been conned into redefining what a job is, but the benefits and security and all that have still vanished. So what can people afford? They can’t even afford to rent anymore:

Renting In The US Has Never Been More Unaffordable

Over the weekend, when looking at the record high ratio in median new home sale prices to household incomes in the US, we concluded that US homes have never been more unaffordable for the average American. What about renting? Isn’t it intuitive that if buying a house has never been more expensive, then at least renting should be cheap(er). Unfortunately no, because not only is renting not cheap(er) in either absolute or relative terms, but when observed through the prism of the only thing that matters, namely disposable income, renting – just like buying a house – has never been more unaffordable.

Now remember what I said before: millions upon millions see their savings and pensions melt away before their eyes, while at the same time they are forced to spend ever more on housing costs. And when that scheme hits the wall, the economy will remember it’s alive only because of the housing bubble, and then croak. Leaving both renters and owners without jobs and eventually places to live.

A lovely example of where all this is heading comes from a Statista report on the Netherlands 3 weeks ago. The Dutch have tons of interest-only mortgages, just like the Australians, but you can take this graph as a general model for what many of not most countries that have low interest rates and thus housing bubbles, will face:

Heading Towards A Mortgage Crisis In The Netherlands?

Bank it or bust. In October 2017, the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) issued a warning on mortgages in the Netherlands. They claimed that almost 55% of the aggregate Dutch mortgage debt consisted of interest-only and investment-based mortgage loans, which did not involve any contractual repayments during the loan term. As prices in the the European housing, or residential real estate, market increase and mortgage rates decrease due the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) of the ECB, interest-only mortgages became more and more popular.

 

In addition, the Dutch government encouraged home ownership for many years, offering tax exemptions on Dutch mortgage payments alongside other benefits for homebuyers in the Netherlands. Consequently, the total mortgage debt from households in the Netherlands increased from approximately €548 billion in 2006 to approximately €664 billion in 2016. However, the debts must still be repaid when the interest-only mortgages expire.

 

The DNB stated there could be a risk that the households in question may not have the means to repay their debts before or when their loans expire, risking a new mortgage crisis. Lenders, they say, must actively alert customers to this risk and help them find a suitable solution. Unfortunately, the value of mortgages in 2017 is forecasted to increase with approximately 3.9% compared to 2016.

The debt accumulation is insane. Combine that with the wholesale erosion of savings and pensions, and you have an economy with either a lot of foreclosures and homelessness in its future, or a bankrupt banking system. More people should, before purchasing property, be shown graphs like that. But that would kill the bubble scheme, wouldn’t it?

Is there a way out of this mess? Well, there is in theory. Just grow your economy, and your wages etc., by let’s say 6.8% per year for decades on end. Problem with that is it’s possible only in a country like China, and that only because whatever Beijing says the growth rate is, goes. But that doesn’t make it real. Still, it entices Chinese grandmas into buying apartments.

What Beijing doesn’t tell them, or us, is how much debt the grandmas have gone into by now to buy all those new nice and shiny apartments. But since stocks and bonds are still not their thing, it’s all they have. Property in China is all on red. In the US about one quarter of household wealth is in housing, in China it’s three quarters.

 

So no, there’s no way out. My best guess is the first country to deal with this in an aggressive manner will be the -relative- winner. All others are goners. The governments and politicians who’ve lured their people into this biggest Ponzi in human history will probably be long gone when the house comes down, and if they know what’s good for them will have moved to some street with no name in a land far away.

via http://ift.tt/2iW5HSY Tyler Durden

Content originally published at iBankCoin.com

Just weeks after surviving the Las Vegas massacre at the Route 91 Harvest country music festival, a married couple from California died in a fiery wreck when their car rammed into the gate of their gated community and burst into flames less than a mile away from their Riverside County home.

Dennis Carver, 52, famously jumped on top of his wife Loraine, 53, to shield her from the gunfire during the Vegas massacre.

When Dennis Carver realized the loud cracks weren’t fireworks but instead rapid gunfire, he jumped on top of his wife, Lorraine (Lora) Carver, to shield her from the bullets. –Las Vegas Review-Journal

Officials report it took firefighters over an hour to put out the fire caused by the Carvers’ wreck. Their 16-year-old daughter, Madison Carver described hearing a “loud bang,” and saw her parents’ crashed car in flames when she went to investigate.

The Carvers’ eldest daughter, Brooke, 20, posted the following on Facebook Oct 20:

“This week we have been through more pain than we have ever been and probably will ever go through again. It’s hard to see Gods (sic) plan right now and how this was all part of it, but through the support of family and friends we have been pushing through.”

Other mysterious deaths

Granted – any event with 20,000 attendees will statistically have a few people who don’t make it to Christmas, however two other survivors of the Vegas massacre who notably said they saw multiple shooters have died weirdly, and one of them was trying to organize a survivors’ group to coordinate accounts of the incident when she died.

Kymberley Suchomel

Vegas survivor Kymberley Suchomel died October 9 in her Apple Valley, CA home just five days after she posted her version of events to Facebook. Her grandmother told the Victorville Daily Press that Kymberley appeared to have died in her sleep:

“Kymberley had epilepsy and she’s always been prone to seizures — she told her friend that she recently had three focal seizures,” Julie Norton said. “I believe the stress from the shooting took her life.”

Kymberley’s said on Facebook that “every single survivor I have talked to also remembers multiple shooters, and at least one from the ground.” 

A longtime friend of Suchomel’s also posted screenshots of a conversation with Kymberley in which she said she was planning to “organize a group of survivors” in order “to piece things together.”

“You can share my comment for sure,” Suchomel told her friend,  “And you can leave my name” she added. “I’m trying to organize a group of survivors so if anyone wants to contact me they can. Because this fucked up shit doesn’t make sense and we are trying to piece things together.”

Five days later Suchomel was dead.

Danny Contreras

The next mysterious death of a Vegas massacre survivor is Danny Contreras – who described multiple shooters as well. The 35 year old reported his account all over – with one of his tweets shared hundreds of times which stated “can’t believe i got out of concert alive! 2 men chasing me with guns.”  

CRAZY! Danny Contreras, #LasVegasShooting survivor.. Was found dead with gun shot wounds in his home. He reported TWO shooters chasing him!! http://pic.twitter.com/ql06DCKSwO

— ???????? Big Will ???????? (@WillontheRadio) October 28, 2017

Contreras was found dead in a vacant Las Vegas home with multiple gunshot wounds.

Police said 35-year-old Danny Contreras was found dead at 7:05 a.m. Monday. A woman who thought she heard a man groaning had called 911 requesting a welfare check on the 5800 block of East Carey Avenue, near North Nellis Boulevard.

Contreras died of multiple gunshot wounds, and the coroner ruled his death a homicide. –Las Vegas Review Journal

Las Vegas Police homicide Lt. Dan McGrath said it’s possible Contreras had gang ties based on the fact that he had tattoos, though the killing was likely related to narcotics rather than gang activity.

Neighbors said they did not hear any gunshots, however they heard arguing and a dog barking.

While the fiery death of the Carvers’ after careening into the gate of their gated community is indeed mysterious, the couple did not post publicly about multiple shooters. Kymberley Suchomel and Danny Contreras, on the other hand, most certainly did before their untimely deaths.

What do you think – multiple shooters or lone gunman with unknown motive?

 

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