McCain Associate Subpoenaed Over Trump Dossier

Several months ago it emerged that the Republican sponsor behind the Fusion GPS Trump project was hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer, a fact which surprised many who expected that John McCain would be the GOP mastermind looking for dirt in Trump’s past. However, a new and credible McCain trail has emerged in the annals of the “Trump Dossier” after the Washington Examiner reported that the House Intelligence Committee issued a subpoena to an associate of John McCain over his connection with the salacious dossier containing unverified allegations about Trump and his ties to Russia, which many speculate served as the illegitimate basis for FISA warrants against the Trump campaign – permitting the NSA to listen in on Trump’s phone calls – and which the president yesterday slammed as “bogus” and a “crooked Hillary pile of garbage.”

In the latest twist, committee Chair Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) wants to talk to David Kramer, a former State Department official and current senior fellow at the McCain Institute for International Leadership at Arizona State University, about his visit to London in November 2016. During his trip, at McCain’s request Kramer met with the dossier’s author, former British spy Christopher Steele, to view “the pre-election memoranda on a confidential basis,” according to court filings and to receive a briefing and a copy of the Trump dossier. Kramer then returned to the U.S. to give the document to McCain. McCain then took a copy of the dossier to the FBI’s then-director, James Comey. But the FBI already had the document; Steele himself gave the dossier to the bureau in installments, reportedly beginning in early July 2016.


David Kramer

While McCain, recovering in Arizona from treatments for cancer, has long refused to detail his actions regarding the dossier, his associate Kramer was interviewed by the House Intelligence Committee on Dec. 19. The new subpoena stems from statements Kramer made in that interview. In the session, the Washington Examiner reports, Kramer told House investigators that he knew the identities of the Russian sources for the allegations in Steele’s dossier. But when investigators pressed Kramer to reveal those names, he declined to do so.

Now, he is under subpoena which was issued Wednesday afternoon, and directs Kramer to appear again before House investigators on Jan. 11.

As the ongoing government probe slowly turns away from Trump’s “collusion” with the Russians and toward the FBI “insurance policy” to allegedly prevent Trump from becoming president by fabricating a narrative of Russian cooperation with the Trump, knowing Steele’s sources will be a critical part of the congressional dossier investigation:

“If one argues the document is unverified and never will be, it is critical to learn the identity of the sources to support that conclusion. If one argues the document is the whole truth, or largely true, knowing sources is equally critical.”

There is another reason to know Steele’s sources, and that is to learn not just the origin of the dossier but its place in the larger Trump-Russia affair. As the WashEx adds, there is a belief among some congressional investigators that the Russians who provided information to Steele were using Steele to disrupt the American election as much as the Russians who distributed hacked Democratic Party emails. In some investigators’ views, they are the two sides of the Trump-Russia project, both aimed at sowing chaos and discord in the American political system.

Still, investigators who favor this theory ask a sensible question: “It is likely that all the Russians involved in the attempt to influence the 2016 election were lying, scheing, Kremlin-linked, Putin-backed enemies of America – except the Russians who talked to Christopher Steele?

On the other hand, the theory is still just a theory, for now… and as the Examiner’s Byron York correctly points out, to validate -or refute – it House investigators will seek Steele’s sources – and is why they will try to compel Kramer to talk.

via http://ift.tt/2lfB4VU Tyler Durden

North Korean Defectors Show Signs Of Radiation Exposure

South Korean scientists and doctors who have been examining North Korean defectors have stumbled upon yet another horrifying discovery: At least four of the defectors have shown signs of radiation exposure, the South Korean government said on Wednesday – although researchers could not confirm if the radiation was related to Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program.

Earlier today, we noted that one of the defectors had also tested positive for Anthrax antibodies, suggesting that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has continued his chemical weapons program despite signing an international chemical weapons treaty. Of course, the North Korean government has denied that chemical weapons are being used.

All four men are former residents of Kilju county, an area in North Korea that includes the nuclear test site Punggye-ri. According to Reuters, they were likely exposed to radiation between May 2009 and January 2013. All of the men defected to the South before the most recent test, according to a researcher at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute.

The researcher cautioned that people can be exposed to radiation in many ways, and that none of the defectors who had lived in Punggye-ri itself showed specific symptoms.

Fears that North Korea could unintentionally trigger a nuclear disaster via its nuclear tests have escalated since the North’s Sept. 3 nuclear test, prompting China to increase monitoring of radioactive activity along its border with its restive neighbor. Seismic activity detected in the aftermath of the test suggests the test site is suffering from "Tired Mountain Syndrome" – a condition detected at former Soviet nuclear testing sites. The destabilizing impact of the tests was made evident when a tunnel at Punggye-ri collapsed, killing 200 North Korean workers.

Still, the North has pushed ahead with building new tunnels at the test site, suggesting that – instead of abandoning Punggye-ri altogether, as their Chinese peers have advised, they intend to move the tests to a different part of the mountain.

Ultimately, scientists worry that the mountain could implode, releasing a plume of toxic radioactive dust into the atmosphere that could wreak untold havoc on the health of people across the region.

via http://ift.tt/2Cf9MJI Tyler Durden

California Teachers Deliver Abysmal Performance Compared To Other States

Authored by Grace Carr via The Daily Caller,

California may be a hub for business and technological advancement, but its teachers aren’t matching the success of the state’s entrepreneurs.

A new 2017 survey on teacher effectiveness shows that California teachers are delivering grades just shy of failing. The survey ranked America’s most populous states in teacher preparedness, and California came in multiple letter grades below its companion states according to the 2017 State Teacher Policy Yearbook the Santa Cruz Sentinel reports.

Florida earned a B+, New York a B, Texas a B-, Pennsylvania a C, and California a D-. California also ranks below 31 other public school systems.

The National Council on Teacher Quality’s 2017 survey sought to evaluate states on their levels of teacher aptitude and preparedness, taking into consideration myriad factors — like compensation — that lead to successful or poor teaching.

The council analyzed nine policy areas in its evaluation of every state in order to obtain its results. California earned a failing grade in hiring, teacher and principal evaluation, and ability to keep good teachers. The council’s survey also showed that since it last measured teacher effectiveness in 2015, little progress has been made in California.

“States’ teacher policies have an enormous impact on the quality of education in the state,” council managing director of state policy Elizabeth Ross told the Santa Cruz Sentinel.

 

“The inability of California to name what an effective teacher is creates the conditions where we go round and round,” Tony Smith, a former school superintendent and education regulation backer also said in a critique of the state school systems’ cyclical ineffectiveness, the Sentinel reports.

California earned its best grade — a B — in teacher compensation, largely a result of the state’s extremely high cost of living.

The Golden State has earned D’s since the council’s first survey in 2009.

The survey comes after records showed that the majority of graduating students at Ballou High School in Washington, D.C., did not attend more than six weeks of class but still managed to be accepted into college. Almost half of the graduates had unexcused absences totaling more than three months of missed school and roughly 20 percent were absent more times than they were present for classes.

via http://ift.tt/2Dmx5hD Tyler Durden

Obama Still Most Admired Man in America, Israel Wants Trump Station Near Western Wall, NASA Looking to Alpha Centauri: P.M. Links

  • Barack Obama topped the list of most admired men in the U.S. according to the annual Gallup poll, with President Trump coming in second, the first time since 2008 the incumbent president didn’t top the list. Hillary Clinton topped the list of most admired women for the 15th year in a row, while Bill Clinton fell off the top 10 for the first time in 25 years.
  • Pro-Trump singer Joy Villa has filed a sexual assault complaint against former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski.
  • Hillary Clinton supporters are outraged over a Vanity Fair video poking fun at the failed presidential candidate and suggesting she find new hobbies.
  • At least 10 people were injured in a TNT explosion at a store in St. Petersburg, according to Russian state media.
  • The transport minister of Israel wants to name a planned train station near the Western Wall after Trump.
  • NASA is interested in sending a probe to Alpha Centauri, in 2069.

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter, and don’t forget to sign up for Reason’s daily updates for more content

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/2BZdLuA
via IFTTT

WTI/RBOB Shrug At Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw

WTI/RBOB faded back from yesterday's Libya pipeline headline-driven exuberance ahead of tonight's API inventory data. A bigger than expected crude draw held WTI prices steady but RBOB faded very modestly after API showed a notable gasoline (and distillates) build.

 

API

  • Crude -6mm (-3.75mm exp)
  • Cushing -1.3mm (-590k exp)
  • Gasoline +3.1mm
  • Distillates +2.8mm

Heading into tonight's data, DOE had showed 5 weeks in a row of crude draws and gasoline builds.

WTI/RBOB prices barely reacted to the API data, with RBOB modestly lower…

“The Forties pipeline is coming closer to being back online, so that’s capping some of the price optimism that you might have otherwise seen from the Libya supply outage,” Michael Bokoff, an investment analyst at Manulife Asset Management in Boston, said by telephone.

The market is “probably reassured now,” Ashley Petersen, lead oil analyst at Stratas Advisors in New York, said. “I don’t think it’s going to take a very long time to fix” the Libya pipeline.

At the same time, she said, “you have a few people wrapping up their books” at the end of the year.

via http://ift.tt/2zDPEM3 Tyler Durden

“Everything Has Gone Wrong… We’ve Centralized All Our Data To A Guy Named Zuckerberg”

Authored by The Next Web's Mar Masson Maack via Hackernoon.com,

At its inception, the internet was a beautifully idealistic and equal place. But the world sucks and we’ve continuously made it more and more centralized, taking power away from users and handing it over to big companies. And the worst thing is that we can’t fix it?—?we can only make it slightly less awful.

That was pretty much the core of Pirate Bay’s co-founder, Peter Sunde‘s talk at tech festival Brain Bar Budapest. TNW sat down with the pessimistic activist and controversial figure to discuss how screwed we actually are when it comes to decentralizing the internet.

Forget about the future, the problem is now

In Sunde’s opinion, people focus too much on what might happen, instead of what is happening. He often gets questions about how a digitally bleak future could look like, but the truth is that we’re living it.

Everything has gone wrong. That’s the thing, it’s not about what will happen in the future it’s about what’s going on right now. We’ve centralized all of our data to a guy called Mark Zuckerberg, who’s basically the biggest dictator in the world as he wasn’t elected by anyone.

Trump is basically in control over this data that Zuckerberg has, so I think we’re already there. Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong and I don’t think there’s a way for us to stop it.

One of the most important things to realize is that the problem isn’t a technological one. “The internet was made to be decentralized,” says Sunde, “but we keep centralizing everything on top of the internet.”

To support this, Sunde points out that in the last 10 years, almost every up-and-coming tech company or website has been bought by the big five: Amazon, Google, Apple, Microsoft and Facebook. The ones that manage to escape the reach of the giants, often end up adding to the centralization.

We don’t create things anymore, instead we just have virtual things. Uber, Alibaba and Airbnb, for example, do they have products? No. We went from this product-based model, to virtual product, to virtually no product what so ever. This is the centralization process going on.

Although we should be aware that the current effects of centralization, we shouldn’t overlook that it’s only going to get worse. There are a lot of upcoming tech-based services that are at risk of becoming centralized, which could have a huge impact on our daily lives.

We’re super happy about self driving cars, but who owns the self driving cars? Who owns the information about where they can and can’t go? I don’t want to ride in a self driving car that can’t drive me to a certain place because someone has bought or sold an illegal copy of something there.

Sunde firmly believes that this is a realistic scenario as companies will always have to put their financial gains first, before the needs of people and societies. That’s why there needs to be a greater ethical discussion about technology and ownership, if we don’t want to end up living in a corporate-driven dystopia (worse than our current one, that is).

Making a shitty situation slightly more tolerable

Feeling a bit optimistic, I asked Sunde whether we could still fight for decentralization and bring the power back to the people. His answer was simple.

No. We lost this fight a long time ago. The only way we can do any difference is by limiting the powers of these companies?—?by governments stepping in?—?but unfortunately the EU or the US don’t seem to have any interest in doing this.

So there’s still some chance for a less awful future, but it would require a huge political effort. However, in order to achieve that, the public needs to be informed about the need for decentralization?—?but historically that’s not likely to happen.

I would say we, as the people, kind of lost the internet back to the capitalist society, which we were hoping to take it back from. We had this small opening of a decentralized internet but we lost it by being naive. These companies try to sound good in order to take over, that they’re actually ‘giving’ you something. Like Spotify gives you music and has great passion for music, and all of the successful PR around it.

But what it does to us in the long term is more like smoking. Big data and Big Tobacco are really similar in that sense. Before, we didn’t realize how dangerous tobacco actually was, but now we know it gives you cancer. We didn’t know that big data could be thing, but now we know it is. We’ve been smoking all our lives on big data’s products and now we can’t quit.

And just like with tobacco, it’s governments that need to create the restrictions. However, it’s difficult to see how any government?—?except for big players like US and EU?—?are supposed to be able to restrict the powerful tech giants.

Sunde feels that as the EU behemoth becomes bigger, it will be more difficult to pass laws that are actually for humans and that give people extended right. Which is unfortunate as the EU technically has the legislative power to make an actual difference when it comes to decentralization.

The EU could say that if Facebook wants to operate within the EU, they have to agree that all of the data has to be owned by the user, and not by Facebook. Which would be quite simple for the EU to do, but of course that would make Facebook really upset.

Then every country would be scared to be the first one to implement the law because Facebook would leave and all of its citizens would be without their tobacco. That’s the problem we’ll always have.

Sunde, however, is slightly optimistic (but not really) as he doesn’t feel that this fight has to necessarily go through monolithic governments to reach some kind of successful result. In fact, it might actually be more likely to succeed on a smaller national level.

In regards to this, Sunde names my beloved Iceland as an example, where the Pirate Party, running on a platform of groundbreaking digital policies, almost got into government. Dramatic changes on a national level, no matter how small the population is, could have great effects in the global community. Basically meaning that countries can lead by example.

Sunde, who’s half Norwegian and half Finnish, says that another good example of leading digital policies on a national level is when Finland made access to the internet a human right in 2010. By giving people these rights, the government had to define what the internet actually is and prevented future discussions about censorship?—?bolstering people’s rights against further centralization.

If nation states can actually facilitate further decentralization, like Sunde suggests, then we might actually be able to hamper the immense power of big corporations. Countries like Estonia have shown that politicians can come up with digital policies that actually preserve citizens’ right in a digital age.

However, we humans are illogical creatures that don’t necessarily do the things that are good for us: “It’s better for the people, but we don’t want to suffer that one single down-time second of our beloved tobacco.”

Check out Peter Sunde’s TNW Answer Session here.

via http://ift.tt/2DmyTan Tyler Durden

Yield Curve Collapses To 10 Year Lows, Stocks Stumble Amid “Unprecedented” Bullish Sentiment

Bonds and Bullion are bid and the yield curve crashed as the Santa Claus rally fails to appear for a second day…

 

Gold's gains are S&P's losses as the two converge for the month of December…

 

For the second day in a row, stocks went nowhere despite the promise of the Santa Claus rally… (NOTE the somewhat ridicluous instaramp in the last 2 minutes to get stocks green)

 

Futures show the week so far better – Nasdaq (green), Dow (blue), S&P (red) (note AAPL was down again today, testing its 50DMA)…

 

Perhaps it is because, as Kevin Duffy noted earlier, "8 out of 10 of the best sentiment indicators are in the 99th percentile of bullishness over the past ten years (a period of mostly bull market optimism!).  This is unprecedented…"

 

FANG Stocks are down for the 6th day in a row… (the longest losing streak since Nov 4th 2016)

 

Banks have been under pressure this week…

 

VIX jumped somewhat notably today (3rd day up in a row) – NOTE the VIX hammering into the European close and then it snapped…

 

Despite a heavy tail in today's 5Y auction, yields crashed across the curve and the yield curve flattened dramatically

 

Perhaps a few funds are seeing the 'value' in bonds?

 

Notably 10Y yields dropped back below 2.4% (YTD unch)…

 

Which is notable, as Strategas points out, a 12/31 close above 2.44% would be the 3rd year of rising rates in a row – the longest stretch since 1981

 

The yield curve crashed most since Brexit to a new cycle low…(lowest close since Oct 2007)

 

There is some serious problems brewing in Japanese liquidity markets as while Euro- and Sterling cross-currency swaps have bounced back, Yen-USD basis swaps have collapsed to a new cycle low suggesting major USD-funding issues for Japanese entities…

 

 

The Dollar Index slipped lower today…lowest close since Dec 5th

 

WTI was unable to extend yesterday's gains above $60…

 

Gold and Bitcoin continued to recouple…

 

As Gold surged above its 100DMA for the first time in a month… (NOTE – gold suffered a death cross as the 50DMA crossed below the 200DMA)

 

Meanwhile copper is at near 4 year highs…

 

The question is – why are bond yields collapsing and not playing along…

 

Cryptos had a mixed day with Ripple ramping, but Ether, Bitcoin, and Litecoin all sliding…

Bitcoin futures volume picked up today but remains notably lower than last week…

As a fional notes, CFTC reports that net speculative positioning in CBOE Bitcoin Futs is -1371 contracts, or Short 6,855 Bitcoins… so prepare yourself for a short squeeze.

Bonus Chart: WTF!!

 

via http://ift.tt/2zDyHBx Tyler Durden

The Great Recession 10 Years Later: Lessons We Still Have To Learn

Authored by Robert Bruner, op-ed via TheHill.com,

Ten years ago this month, a recession began in the U.S. that would metastasize into a full-fledged financial crisis. A decade is plenty of time to reflect on what we have learned, what we have fixed, and what remains to be done. High on the agenda should be the utter unpreparedness for what came along.

The memoirs of key decision-makers convey sincere intentions and in some cases, very adroit maneuvering. But common to them all are apologies that today strike one as rather lame.

“I was surprised by the sudden crisis,” wrote George W. Bush, “My focus had been kitchen-table economic issues like jobs and inflation. I assumed any major credit troubles would have been flagged by the regulators or rating agencies. … We were blindsided by a financial crisis that had been more than a decade in the making.”

 

Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Fed wrote, “Clearly, many of us at the Fed, including me, underestimated the extent of the housing bubble and the risks it posed.” He cited psychological factors rather than low interest rates, a “tidal wave of foreign money,” and complacency among decision-makers.

 

Timothy Geithner said that, “failures of foresight were primarily failures of imagination … our visions of darkness still weren’t dark enough.”

 

And Henry Paulson explained that “we believed the problem was largely confined to subprime loans. … (Then) the problems were coming far more quickly.”

Surprise, underestimation, poor imagination, and disbelief in an adverse outcome are hallmarks of the onset of a financial crisis.

My studies of the 17 major financial crises since the founding of the Republic reveal that over-optimism is an important driver of the bubbles that eventually become busts. As the legendary investor, Sir John Templeton, once said, “The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘This time is different.’” Such was the mindset that real estate prices could only rise (2008), dot-com companies would forever grow and be profitable (2001), or that the Russian government would never default (1998).

These days, the blogosphere chatters about a coming crash and financial crisis, for the obvious reason that conditions feel bubble-ish. We are in the late stage of the third longest economic expansion and second-longest bull market in U.S. history. Stock prices are high: The cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio is at the third-highest since 1880. Consumer confidence is buoyant. The personal saving rate, 3.1 percent, is near the all-time low. According to the Fed, financial conditions are looser than average. House prices have broken above their peak at the last housing bubble. A Saudi prince paid $450 million for a painting. And nearly every day, Bitcoin sets record prices.

To be sure, regulatory reforms since 2008 have produced more strongly capitalized banks, tests of resilience to shocks, more inter-agency coordination, and some consumer protections. But like the generals who are prepared to fight the last war, these reforms don’t persuade me that we’ll be ready for the next crisis.

History shows that crises arise unexpectedly from corners of the economy that fell beyond the conventional radar screen — in such corners, regulations are light or nonexistent, information is scanty, players are relatively unknown, and flows of capital in and out are particularly hot. Human ingenuity will always create such corners of the economy, either to serve new needs or to arbitrage around regulations. To eliminate every scintilla of systemic risk in the financial sector would be extraordinarily costly and would breed an intolerable regime of surveillance.

Yet I believe that there is one thing that the president and other leaders could do that would help to mitigate the risk of a financial crisis: reinforce a national culture of prudence — this includes the virtues of earning your money before you spend it; saving for a rainy day; investing wisely; honoring your debts; using resources carefully; respecting the property rights of others; and providing for the welfare of family and community. For the president and leaders of Congress to say all of this would evoke gales of laughter in the wake of recent action. Yet the bully pulpit of leadership can set a powerful tone.

At the outset of this tenth anniversary of the Global Financial Crisis, it is well worth remembering that we require not only vigilance from our leaders, but also the ability to articulate enduring values that will assure the sustainability of our society. We have had a culture of prudence in America before: “Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without” was the simple rhyme of the 1930s upon which America built an episode of extraordinary growth to the 1970s.

A culture of prudence is a culture of resilience. Prudence and resilience can trump surprise. Would that the president set this tone.

via http://ift.tt/2CcUWmX Tyler Durden

Ross Ulbricht Files Appeal to the Supreme Court on His Life Sentence Without Parole

Ross Ulbricht was sentenced in May 2015 to life in prison without parole for various crimes connected to his launching the darkweb sales site Silk Road. In May of this year, the Second Circuit Court of Appeals upheld his conviction and his grossly disproportionate sentencing.

Ulbricht has now appealed the Second Circuit’s decision to the Supreme Court.

Kannon K. Shanmugam, the lawyer managing the appeal, summed up the legal issues that require settling by the Supreme Court in a December memo to potential amici in the case. Even those who might never dream of launching a darkweb site facilitating possibly illegal substance sales should be very worried about how the government convicted and sentenced Ulbricht, he explains:

This case presents two important questions of constitutional law with broader significance for the rights of criminal defendants generally. First, the Second Circuit affirmed the government’s warrantless collection of Mr. Ulbricht’s Internet traffic information by relying on the third-party doctrine, which the Court is reviewing in a different context this Term in Carpenter v. United States….This case would afford the Court an ideal opportunity to address how the doctrine applies to Internet traffic information.

Damon Root reported from the Supreme Court earlier this month on the oral arguments in that Carpenter case, which hinges on a warrantless search of cellphone records in a bank robbery conviction. As Root wrote:

The government insists that this warrantless search did not violate Carpenter’s Fourth Amendment rights because, in the words of the Supreme Court’s 1979 ruling in Smith v. Maryland, “a person has no legitimate expectation of privacy in information he voluntarily turns over to third parties.” In other words, Carpenter has no Fourth Amendment right to privacy in his cellphone records because he voluntarily used his cellphone, thus voluntarily disclosing his location to the various cellphone towers that handled his calls.

Throughout the November 29 oral arguments, Justice Alito was perhaps the most supportive of the government’s position and the most critical of Carpenter’s arguments. Justice Gorsuch, on the other hand, seemed extremely skeptical of the government’s stance. Gorsuch even suggested at one point that the government’s position was at odds with the “original understanding of the Constitution”—not exactly a compliment, since Gorsuch is a self-professed originalist.

Root went on to explain how in the oral arguments in the case, Gorsuch seemed to believe that Americans ought to have a defensible property right in such digital information analogous to the classic analog “papers and effects.” As Root wrote, “Gorsuch proffered a property rights argument that might allow Carpenter to win the case.” The Supreme Court’s decision in Carpenter has not yet been issued.

Shanmugam, a former law clerk to the late Justice Antonin Scalia, has argued 21 previous cases before the Supreme Court, has had at least five wins there, and has a good record of a 36 percent success rate in having cert petitions granted by the Court from 2012-2015.

He says those Fourth Amendment questions related to digital information, ripe for reappraisal, are not the only issue at stake in Ulbricht’s case:

Second, the Second Circuit affirmed the sentencing court’s determination of facts never submitted to the jury, which significantly altered the Guidelines range and ultimately led the court to impose a life sentence—a sentence the Second Circuit admitted “condemn[s] a young man to die in prison.” Several justices have previously questioned whether this kind of judicial factfinding violates the Sixth Amendment. For both these reasons, this case warrants Supreme Court review.

The certiorari filing in Ulbricht’s case has not yet appeared on the Supreme Court’s online docket. But its primary contentions are that the warrentless pen/trap search orders on both Ulbricht’s home IP address and his laptop represent a fresh and more extreme government intrusion into private information than recognized by past phone-based precedent.

Why We Need a Fresh Fourth Amendment Doctrine for the Digital Age

In rejecting Ulbricht’s earlier appeal, the Second Circuit held to the “third party doctrine,” which says any information you voluntarily passed along to or through a third party, like a phone company (as in the initial invention of the doctrine in the 1979 Smith case, or by modern analogy, internet service providers), is information over which you no longer have any Fourth Amendment privacy right.

Ulbricht’s cert petition tries to argue that the Court should at the very least “hold this case pending its decision in Carpenter, which may articulate principles applicable here.”

As the cert petition goes on to explain, the pre-existing, telephone-based, criteria to judge the “third party doctrine” in the computer age is one courts of appeals “have largely felt constrained by” and “have signaled the need for this Court to address whether, and how, those precedents apply in the context of modern Internet technology.”

In that earlier Smith decision, “the Court emphasized the pen register’s ‘limited capabilities,’ noting that “a law enforcement official could not even determine from the use of a pen register whether a communication existed.”

The cert petition lists and quotes various cases in which circuit courts of appeal have clearly questioned whether all the information we are “willingly” giving to third parties in the internet age are indeed things over which we have no Fourth Amendment interest, if the Fourth Amendment is to retain any strength at all in the 21st century.

The very confusion in the lower courts on this question, the petition argues:

only underscore the necessity of this Court’s intervention. Calling the Internet traffic information collected by pen/traps today “constitutionally indistinguishable” from the list of telephone numbers at issue in Smith is “like saying a ride on horseback is materially indistinguishable from a flight to the moon”: “[b]oth are ways of getting from point A to point B, but little else justifies lumping them together.” (Riley, 134 S. Ct. at 2488).

Ulbricht’s case is “an appropriate companion case to Carpenter because the Internet traffic information at issue here is broader in important ways than the cell site location information at issue in Carpenter. In addition to allowing the government to determine when petitioner was accessing the Internet from the privacy of his own home, the information gathered by the pen/traps here permitted the government to determine the websites to which petitioner connected, the length of the connections, and the port of transmission of the data. As this Court has recognized, the collection of such Internet information could reveal ‘an individual’s private interests or concerns.’ (Riley, 134 S. Ct. at 2490).” (The 2014 Riley case quoted did apply Fourth Amendment protections to searches of cell phones incident to an arrest.)

The Supreme Court has a great opportunity to clarify further for law enforcement the meaning of the Fourth Amendment in the Internet age, the petition argues.

These are some of the reasons why Ulbricht’s legal team thinks the warrantless searches in his case deserve to be distinguished from the telephone records at issue in 1979’s Smith case:

unlike in Smith, the government could identify the “purport of any communication” at issue here, because it collected the ports of transmission of petitioner’s Internet activity. A “port” is a piece of information used to identify the purpose of a particular packet of data being transmitted between computers….More broadly, an individual’s Internet traffic information is far more sensitive than the telephone routing information at issue in Smith. As this Court has observed, “an Internet search and browsing history * * * [can] reveal an individual’s private interests or concerns—perhaps a search for certain symptoms of disease, coupled with frequent visits to WebMD.” Riley….

Extending Smith and Miller to Internet traffic information would allow the government to access significant information about an individual’s Internet habits without a warrant and without probable cause. For example, the government could learn that the individual regularly visits websites associated with a particular political party or sexual orientation, “enabl[ing] the Government to ascertain, more or less at will, [people’s] political and religious beliefs, sexual habits, and so on.” United States v. Jones…(2012) (Sotomayor, J., concurring)….

What is more, pen/traps revealing IP address information can also allow the government to identify an individual’s general location, as the government demonstrated at petitioner’s trial….In that respect, the government turned petitioner’s laptop into an analogue of the tracking device at issue in United States v. Karo… (1984). In that case, the Court held that the government conducted an unconstitutional search when it monitored a signal from a tracking device in the defendant’s home without a warrant.

When agents can gather an individual’s Internet traffic information upon only the minimal showing required by the Electronic Communications Privacy Act, little beyond their discretion constrains their ability to monitor citizens’ private lives. And an agent’s choice to exercise discretion is no substitute for clear limits imposed by an impartial magistrate.

The Sixth Amendment Implications of Ulbricht’s Life Sentence Without Parole

The Shanmugam memo sums up the legal issues raised by Ulbricht’s life sentence without parole. While “Ulbricht’s Sentencing Guidelines range would have resulted in a recommended sentence of, at most, 30 years in prison,” the sentencing judge considered various allegations that Ulbricht paid for (uncommitted) murders, allegations never actually tried in court. The Second Circuit in his initial appeal “reluctantly affirmed, concluding that the alleged murders for hire separated the case from an ordinary drug crime.”

From this layman’s perspective, it seems hideously unjust that a judge can sentence based on crimes never proven in court. Shanmugam explains in the memo however that “the Court has previously declined to grant certiorari on petitions presenting this question” (of sentences based on unadjudicated accusations).

Importantly, “Justice Gorsuch has…expressed interest in this issue, and may spur a renewed interest in granting certiorari. Writing for a Tenth Circuit panel in 2014, then-Judge Gorsuch…wrote that ‘[i]t is far from certain whether the Constitution allows’ a judge to increase a defendant’s sentence within the statutorily authorized range ‘based on facts the judge finds without the aid of a jury or the defendant’s consent.’ United States v. Sabillon-Umana…(10th Cir. 2014) (Gorsuch, J.) (citing Jones).”

Technically, the sentence Ulbricht received was within the range of possible, though not recommended, sentences for the crimes for which he was actually convicted. As explained in the memo:

Even though a particular sentence may fall within the statutory range, the sentencing court is not free to impose that sentence without taking account of the Guidelines range and explaining any variance. To do otherwise constitutes procedural error and results in an unlawful sentence. Thus, even within the statutory range, there are sentences that would be unlawful but for a court’s factfinding and explanation. Under this Court’s Sixth Amendment precedents [such as Apprendi and Alleyne] those factual findings that justify the otherwise unlawful sentence must be found by a jury or admitted by the defendant before they can be used by the judge to increase the defendant’s sentence. The practice of relying on judicial factfinding to sustain an otherwise unreasonable sentence is unconstitutional.

As the cert petition explains, “it is hard to imagine a better example of the consequences of runaway judicial factfinding than this case. Petitioner, a young man with no criminal history, was sentenced to life imprisonment without the possibility of parole for drug crimes that do not ordinarily carry that sentence, based substantially on numerous factual findings made by the sentencing judge by a preponderance of the evidence.”

In the 2007 Rita case, the late Justice Scalia and current Justice Clarence Thomas both expressed concerns about judge’s imposing sentences that are only reasonable because of “judge-found facts.” Both of them in the 2014 Jones case “noted the pressing need for the Court to resolve the question.”

“Numerous judges in the lower courts have urged a different approach or specifically importuned this Court to provide guidance, noting the importance of the question and the attendant uncertainty surrounding sentencing practices while the question remains open,” Ulbricht’s cert petition says. “This Court should grant review and definitively hold that the practice of sustaining an otherwise unreasonable sentence through judicial factfinding is unconstitutional.

Ulbricht’s case is a perfect opportunity for the Court to protect the integrity of a justice system that should be sentencing based only on facts considered and proven in court.

As Ulbricht said to the District Court in his initial trial, “I remember clearly why I created the Silk Road. I had a desire to—I wanted to empower people to be able to make choices in their lives for themselves and to have privacy and anonymity.”

If not for those principles, then at least for the clear constitutional issues raised by the specifics of his prosecution and sentencing, the Supreme Court should take up Ulbricht’s case.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/2lhKYqc
via IFTTT

Tax Plan Jitters Cause Sudden Collapse In Manhattan Apartment Prices In 4Q

Apparently the combination of a massive flood of excess supply in the form of new luxury developments and a Trump tax plan that penalizes people living in expensive cities by capping SALT, mortgage interest and property tax deductions was simply too much for the Manhattan real estate market to ignore in 4Q 2017.  After reaching an all-time high of nearly $1.2 million in 2Q 2017 (chart per Douglas Elliman)…

…the Wall Street Journal this morning notes that median Manhattan apartment prices have dropped to $1.08 million in 4Q 2017, down 9.8% compared to the peak set earlier this year.

Not surprisingly, Pamela Liebman, the president of New York real estate broker The Corcoran Group, attributed the pause by Manhattan buyers to the tax bill and said that folks are increasingly convinced that prices peaked in 2017 and may continue to be under pressure.

“We lost a lot of deals in the fourth quarter, while people waited to see the outcome of the tax bill,” she said. “Now that the uncertainty is gone they will be able to make a decision.”

 

She said buyers were active but “focused on value and reasonable pricing.”

 

“The good news is there are a lot of buyers who are ready to purchase next year,” Ms. Liebman said. “Sellers who don’t overshoot the mark should do well.”

Apartment

Of course, the New York real estate market wasn’t universally rosy during the first half of the year as another broker, Donna Olshan, who produces a weekly report on contract signings above $4 million, said there were worrying signs in the luxury market, including an increase in the average time a listing spent on the market of nearly four months, from about 10 months in 2016 to 14 months this year.  As the following chart from Douglas Elliman highlights, luxury prices in Manhattan peaked 2 quarters before overall prices and have been plummeting ever since.

Meanwhile, new development prices have also been on the decline as the market contends with a steady stream of new buildings coming online.

Of course, the fact that Manhattan real estate prices are coming under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive maps from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a handful of expensive cities like New York and San Francisco.

Among 2,022 counties included in this analysis and at least 50 home purchase loans so far in 2017, those with the highest share of loan originations above $750,000 were New York County (Manhattan), New York (63.8 percent); San Francisco County, California (58.0 percent); Nantucket County, Massachusetts (57.3 percent); San Mateo County, California (55.2 percent); and Marin County, California (50.o percent). Among those same 2,022 counties, those with the highest number of purchase home loan originations above $750,000 so far in 2017 were Los Angeles County, California (9,197); Santa Clara County, California (5,543); Orange County, California (4,450); Maricopa County, Arizona (3,723); and King County, Washington (3,715).


Meanwhile, the second proposed change in the GOP tax plan involved a cap on the deductibility of property taxes at $10,000.  And, much like the impact of mortgage interest above, the map of who’s most impacted looks eerily similar to the 2016 electoral college map.

The county-level heat map below shows the share of single family homes and condos in each county where the most recent property tax bill available was more than $10,000.

 

Among the 1,731 counties analyzed, those with the highest share of homes with property taxes above $10,000 were Westchester County, New York (73.4 percent); Luna County, New Mexico (68.7 percent); Rockland County, New York (60.0 percent); Mathews County, Virginia (54.4 percent); and New York County (Manhattan), New York (52.5 percent). Among those same counties those with the highest volume of homes with property taxes above $10,000 were Nassau County (Long Island), New York (176,946); Los Angeles County, California (165,078); Suffolk County (Long Island), New York (155,592); Bergen County, New Jersey (126,096); and Harris County (Houston), Texas (125,792).


Conclusion: Low-tax, cheap cost of living states (i.e. “Red States”) are suddenly starting to look a lot more attractive to liberal “millionaire, billionaire, private jet owners” in New York who aren’t so keen on “spreading their wealth around” as their rhetoric would have you believe.

via http://ift.tt/2Dmh2jS Tyler Durden