Month: March 2018

What Ordering A Pizza In “Facebook World” Is Like

Submitted by Seabreeze Partners’ Doug Kass,

“A really efficient totalitarian state would be one in which the all-powerful executive of political bosses and their army of managers control a population of slaves who do not have to be coerced, because they love their servitude.”

– Aldous Huxley, Brave New World

Here is a look into the not so distant future:

CALLER:
Is this Tony’s Pizza?
 
FACEBOOK:
No sir, it’s Facebook Pizza.

CALLER:
I must have dialed a wrong number. Sorry.

FACEBOOK:
No sir, Facebook bought Tony’s Pizza last month.

CALLER:
OK. I would like to order a pizza.

FACEBOOK:
Do you want your usual, sir?
 
CALLER: 
My usual? You know me?
 
FACEBOOK:
According to our caller ID data sheet, the last 12 times you called you ordered an extra-large pizza with three cheeses, sausage, pepperoni, mushrooms and meatballs on a thick crust.

CALLER:
OK! That’s what I want …
 
FACEBOOK:
May I suggest that this time you order a pizza with ricotta, arugula, sun-dried tomatoes and olives on a whole wheat gluten-free thin crust?

CALLER:
What? I detest vegetables.
 
FACEBOOK:
Your cholesterol is not good, sir.

CALLER:
How the hell do you know?
 
FACEBOOK:
Well, we cross-referenced your home phone number with your medical records.
We have the result of your blood tests for the last 7 years.

CALLER:
Okay, but I do not want your rotten vegetable pizza!

I already take medication for my cholesterol.

FACEBOOK:
Excuse me sir, but you have not taken your medication regularly.
According to our database, you only purchased a box of 30 cholesterol tablets once, at Drug RX Network, 4 months ago.

CALLER:
I bought more from another drugstore.
 
FACEBOOK:
That doesn’t show on your credit card statement.

CALLER:
I paid in cash.
 
FACEBOOK:
But you did not withdraw enough cash according to your bank statement.

CALLER:
I have other sources of cash.

FACEBOOK:
That doesn’t show on your last tax return unless you bought them using an undeclared income source, which is against the law.

CALLER:
WHAT THE HELL?
 
FACEBOOK:
I’m sorry, sir, we use such information only with the sole intention of helping you.

CALLER:
Enough already!

I’m sick to death of Google, Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp and all the others. I’m going to an island without internet, cable TV, where there is no cell phone service and no one to watch me or spy on me.
 
FACEBOOK:

I understand sir, but you need to renew your passport first.  It expired 6 weeks ago…

via RSS https://ift.tt/2pMHleH Tyler Durden

“Epidemic Of Fatherlessness” – Mike Rowe Reminds The World Of The Importance Of Dads

Dirty Jobs’ Mike Rowe recently noted that he believes  that many Americans are dissatisfied with their lives because they no longer appreciate the intrinsic value of work.

But, overnight, the defender-of-the-average-joe turned his attention to another topic. Mike Rowe begins in the context of bullying (and rehab) but soon gets to another, in his view related, problem rising in America… the epidemic of fatherlessness in America…

Mike’s Facebook post summarizes his views…

Returning the Favor

A couple years ago, when Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt were getting divorced, Jolie was quoted as saying, “It never even crossed my mind that my son would need a father.”

I was struck by her comment, and I remember wondering how many other Americans might share her view. At the time, I didn’t think many. But today, I’m convinced the number is significant. I’m also amazed at how quickly fatherhood has fallen out of favor. Can you imagine a celebrity – or anyone for that matter – saying such a thing just twenty years ago?

This week’s episode of RTF is about a guy named Carlos who found an effective way to deprogram bullies. Please watch it. It’s a great story about a great guy making a real difference around a serious issue. It occurred to me though, half way through filming, that bullying – like so many other social ills in today’s headlines – isn’t really a problem at all; it’s a symptom.

In my view, a symptom of a society that seems to value fatherhood less and less.

The facts seem pretty clear.

  • 63% of youth suicides are from fatherless homes – 5 times the average. (US Dept. Of Health/Census)

  • 90% of all homeless and runaway children are from fatherless homes – 32 times the average.

  • 85% of all children who show behavior disorders come from fatherless homes – 20 times the average. (Center for Disease Control)

  • 80% of rapists with anger problems come from fatherless homes – 14 times the average. (Justice & Behavior, Vol 14, p. 403-26)

  • 71% of all high school dropouts come from fatherless homes – 9 times the average. (National Principals Association Report)

  • 43% of US children live without their father [US Department of Census]

Is it really so surprising to learn that a majority of bullies also come from fatherless homes? As do a majority of school shooters? As do a majority of older male shooters?

I know this is controversial, and I’m sorry to inject an uncomfortable element into a post about a “feel-good” show, but I think it’s important to consider the possibility that this thing we like to call “an epidemic of bullying,” is really an “epidemic of fatherlessness.” I also think it’s reasonable to conclude that our society is sending a message to men of all ages that is decidedly mixed.

Think about it. On the one hand, we’re telling them to “man-up” whenever the going gets tough. On the other, we’re condemning a climate of “toxic masculinity” at every turn. If that strikes you as confusing, imagine being a fourteen-year old boy with no father figure to help you make sense of it.

Anyway, the bullying crisis is real, but the root cause has nothing to do with video games, or guns, or social media, or rock and roll, or sugary drinks, or any of the other boogymen currently in fashion. Nor is it a function of some new chromosome unique to the current crop of kids coming of age. Kids are the same now as they were a hundred years ago – petulant, brave, arrogant, earnest, frightened, and cocksure. It’s the parents who have changed. It’s the parents who have put their own happiness above the best interests of their kids. It’s the parents who actually believe “the village” will raise their kids, when the village is profoundly incapable of doing anything of the sort.

Of course, I could be wrong. I often am. But I can tell you with certainty that whatever the root causes of bullying may be, Carlos Flores is part of the solution. Watch the video and see for yourself. And if you’d like to see more men like him, doing similar things in other places, do me a favor and share his story. It’s a good one. And imitation is also part of the solution…

Thanks,
Mike

via RSS https://ift.tt/2GE5UEr Tyler Durden

Shhh! Virginia Bars Can Host Happy Hour, but Can’t Talk About It

In the annals of weird state liquor rules, save a special spot for Virginia’s happy hour regulations. Bars and restaurants are free to offer discounted drinks, and are allowed to advertise those “drink specials” or “happy hour” deals, like anywhere else. But the specifics can get pretty confusing.

For example, advertising “half-price drinks,” is completely legal. Calling the same discount a “two-for-one special,” is, however, a violation of state law and can get an establishment’s license suspended for seven days.

The same punishment applies if a bar is caught advertising deals under terms like “Thirsty Thursday” or “Sunday Funday.”

Weird, yes. But also possibly unconstitutional. A lawsuit filed Wednesday in federal court argues that Virginia’s happy hour advertising restrictions prevent business owners from communicating truthful information about their offerings, and makes it more difficult to attract customers. Geoff Tracy, who owns three businesses in the Washington, D.C., metro area (one of them in Virginia), the plaintiff in the lawsuit, says he cannot legally use the same advertisements for all three of his locations because of the Virginia law. Even posting those ads on social media or his restaurant’s website could run afoul of the state law.

“If the government wants to curb drinking, it can engage in public education campaigns about the dangers of irresponsible alcohol consumption,” says Anastasia Boden, an attorney with the Pacific Legal Foundation, which is representing Tracy in the lawsuit. “It cannot, however, stifle speech; there’s simply no ‘vice’ exception to the First Amendment.”

Virginia’s happy hour rules are actually less restrictive than they once were. Until January 2014, bars and restaurants were only allowed to advertise happy hours or drink specials inside the establishment itself. Even though bars can now announce “happy hour” on social media or advertise it on sidewalk placards, they are still prohibited from specifying what the discounts are—so consumers are still mostly in the dark until they walk inside.

Advertising specific prices is “never going to happen,” state Del. David B. Albo (R-Fairfax) told The Washington Post in 2015. He said anti-teen-drinking advocates “freaked out” when he proposed a bill to allow such speech.

That makes about as much sense as Virginia’s happy hour laws do in the first place. Teens are already forbidden from consuming alcohol, so how does an additional ban on bars advertising cheap drinks change that? It doesn’t. If teens are going to drink, they’re probably going to do it regardless of what happy hour specials are on-offer at the corner bar, because teens don’t drink at the corner bar.

Meanwhile, real business owners are subjected to unnecessary limitations on their First Amendment rights in order to stop this theoretical threat.

“Virginia is a great place to do business,” says Tracy. “Eliminating this ridiculous law will make it even better.”

from Hit & Run https://ift.tt/2E3jXhh
via IFTTT

Kyle Bass’s Bet Against The Yuan Led To 19% Loss Last Year

Ten years after the financial crisis that minted his reputation, Hayman Capital Management founder Kyle Bass has yet to match – or even come anywhere close to – the success he had during the depths of the crisis, when his tiny $33 million fund’s bets against subprime mortgages more than doubled its AUM in a matter of months.

His performance in recent years has been mixed, and last year was his worst since the fund’s launch in 2006. His Dallas-based fund was off 19%, largely thanks to Bass’s longstanding bet against the Chinese yuan, which strengthened as the US dollar weakened, the Wall Street Journal.

Bass

All of this happened as hedge funds notched their best returns in years.

As Bass explained late last year, he doesn’t regret his bet against the yuan (despite all the pain it has caused him). He merely regrets opening the position when he did.

Previously, Bass described his yuan short as “the greatest investment opportunity right now” adding that betting on a steep devaluation of the yuan was the best way to profit off the Chinese economy’s inevitable “hard landing.”

The crux of his investment thesis hasn’t changed materially since it first appeared in these pages two years ago.

Put simply: China has an enormous debt problem and the rapidly decelerating economy means that the country’s banks will only be able to paper over the soaring NPLs for so long.

If Beijing wants to eliminate the acute overcapacity problem that’s contributed mightily to the global deflationary supply glut, it will mean allowing the market to purge misallocated capital. And that means bankruptcies and a wave of defaults.

“The unwavering faith that the Chinese will somehow be able to successfully avoid anything more severe than a moderate economic slowdown by continuing to rely on the perpetual expansion of credit reminds us of the belief in 2006 that US home prices would never decline,” Bass begins.

China, Bass believes, won’t be able to contain the fallout from this crash without substantially devaluing its currency. Since its banking sector doesn’t have enough capital in reserve, it will need to print money on a massive scale to plug the holes. Bass has said the currency could fall as much as 30% to 40%.

Despite the relative insignificance of Bass’s bearish bet against the flood of capital cycling into and out of China every day, Chinese newspapers have printed editorials condemning Bass and George Soros, another speculator betting against the yuan.

To China, Bass is a “foreign meddler” who is colluding to destabilize the country’s economy and financial markets.

He compared his bet against the yuan to his iconic bet against the US housing market.

“All these things were pointing to such crazy and wretched excess that it was bound to blow up,” Mr. Bass told WSJ.

“The question was, when was it going to break, and what was going to break it.”

Bass, a former Bear Stearns executive, is also remembered for his role in triggering the most acute phase of the crisis. According to documents released recently by the National Archives, Bass was CNBC’s source for a report saying Goldman Sachs had declined to trade with Bear. That report triggered the bank run that many believe pushed Bear into insolvency. It was swiftly bought by JP Morgan for $2 a share.

Bass didn’t confirm or deny this – but did say it was in his interest for Bear to stay alive, and that he warned the firm about its subprime exposure in 2006.

“There are those out there who want to shoot the messenger…but I had every reason for Bear Stearns to stay alive,” he said.

Other Hayman Capital plays have netted the firms a tidy profit, including bets on Greek debt and the Japanese yen. Meanwhile, bets on an oil price recovery proved premature.

The fund is still focused on China, but Bass said he has recently invested more energy in another focus: His bullish take on Southern Europe.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2E2rFbB Tyler Durden

The Life And Death Of Social Networks In One Chart

This time it’s different…

The graph show search interest on Google, based on data from Google Trends.

The shown plots are based on a moving average of 6 months to reduce noise.

Source: Reddit

Is what’s old about to become new again? Futurism  urges ” Help us, Tom Anderson (MySpace Tom). You’re our only hope…”

 

via RSS https://ift.tt/2E2oalC Tyler Durden

Backlash? NRA’s Political Fund Donations Spike In Wake Of Parkland Shooting

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

It probably wasn’t the shooting at a Florida high school itself that caused donations to the NRA to triple since Valentine’s Day. But it was more likely than not the wave of anti-gun illogical and emotionally charged outbursts demanding those who are innocent of the shooting give up their rights that did it.

Supporters of the Second Amendment donated about $779,000 in February to the NRA’s political arm, the Political Victory Fund, according to recent Federal Election Commission (FEC) data. The figure marked a more than threefold increase compared to January when the PAC received nearly $250,000 in donations and was the fund’s second-best month over the last year.

Last weekend, thousands of people rallied in support of gun control during the “March for Our Lives” protest, with many placards openly attacking the NRA. The increasing onslaught against the organization, however, correlated with more donations going to the group’s PAC.

According to the Center for Responsive Politics, two weeks before the fatal school shooting, the NRA’s PAC received $27,100 from itemized contributions – donations that exceed $200 – from 51 donors. Over the next two weeks after the shooting, the itemized contributions skyrocketed to nearly $71,000 from 226 donors.

Most donations to the group – totaling $685,099 – came in small donations that did not exceed $200. This means that normal, average, everyday Americans propped up the NRA in the wake of protests. Multiple politicians are facing the fury of anti-gun activists who criticize them for accepting the NRA’s support and donations. Yet there’s little to no criticism of the Antifa thugs who accept money from George Soros to fund their violent Communist temper tantrums.

The NRA is obviously not going anywhere, and this wave of marches has only added to their funding.  NRA memberships have been on the rise as well.

NRA (National Rifle Association) memberships have skyrocketed in recent weeks since the mainstream media has been ramping up their anti-gun agenda. As the media continues to weaponize the news in the form of gun control propaganda, the NRA’s profiting continues to go up. –SHTFPlan

There’s nothing like a little scapegoating when it comes to placing the blame for mass shootings.  It seems like the blame falls always on the NRA and law-abiding gun owners, not the psychopaths who shoot up schools. And that’s exactly why NRA memberships and donations are skyrocketing.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2GCMHD2 Tyler Durden

Inspector General’s Office to Investigate FBI Surveillance of Carter Page

The Justice Department’s Office of the Inspector General announced today it will be doing its own review of whether the FBI followed proper procedures when it applied to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) for permission to wiretap former Donald Trump campaign aide Carter Page.

The announcement was short and actually didn’t use Page’s name, nor does it use the name of former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele, whose dossier of information about the relationship between Trump’s circle and Russian interests played a role in the wiretapping. (Just how big a role it played is under dispute.)

Even without the names, it’s obvious from just this one-paragraph memo that it’s about Page and Steele:

Memo

A refresher for those who have forgotten: Page left Trump’s presidential campaign after his close ties to Russian interests were publicized. The FBI subsequently requested permission from FISC to wiretap him in order to investigate his relationship with Russia. The Steele dossier was used as part of the submission to the court to justify the wiretap. The dossier also has political roots, with links to the Democratic Party and the Hillary Clinton campaign. Now Republicans in the House Intelligence Committee (and the Trump administration itself) and Democrats are fighting over whether the FBI misled the court and whether they had valid reasons to be surveilling Page.

While we’re still waiting for the Department of Justice to decide what it can declassify and reveal from the underlying warrant documents about Page, the Office of the Inspector General will pursue its own investigation to determine whether anybody in the FBI behaved inappropriately.

from Hit & Run https://ift.tt/2IaIdk6
via IFTTT

Musk Massacred, Bezos Battered, & Zuck Still F**ked As Stocks Fail To Bounce

WTF, NO BTFD? LOL, STFU!

 

Well, that wasn’t supposed to happen…NO DIP BOUGHT! NO DEAD CAT BOUNCE AT ALL…

 

The Dow is still green on the week, Nasdaq red…

 

The S&P 500 managed to hold above its 200DMA once again…

 

FANG Stocks sank again – down 15.5% from the highs at the lows today…

 

Amazon was ugly – biggest 2-day drop in 4 years – but bounced a little when The White House said any impact on Bezos wasnt planned … yet…Remember as goes Amazon, so goes the market…

 

Not a great day for Elon Musk…

 

Bank stocks trod water today too…

 

LIBOR-OIS resumed its spike higher today and so did global bank credit risk…

 

IG Credit spreads continue to widen in US and Europe…

 

European HY spreads are accelerating up to US HY spreads…

 

Bonds led stocks lower once again…

 

Treasury yields were mixed today with the long-end lower and the short-end higher…

 

Flattening the curve dramatically to fresh 11 year lows…

2s30s is now 72bps!!

 

NOTE – the probability of 4 rate hikes in 2018 (i.e 3 more) has tumbled below 20%…

 

The Dollar Index spiked again as a flight to quality continued – erasing the post-Fed-rate-hike plunge…

 

Yen tumbled, Yuan fell, and Hong Kong Dollar slumped back towards the low-end of the peg band…

 

RBOB ended the day higher (decent draw today) but WTI was lower – pump-and-dumping after inventory data, then drifting higher all day after Europe closed…

 

Copper stabilized but crude and PMs were monkeyhammered as the dollar rallied…

 

Gold has erased its post-Fed rate hike gains…

 

Ripple and Bitcoin trod water today but the rest of crypto was ugly with Litecoin worst…

 

Nasdaq has caught back down to cryptos…

 

Finally, Jay Powell better stop this insanity soon or else…

 

Bonus Chart: Will it happen again? US 1929, US 1987, and Japan 1990…

via RSS https://ift.tt/2pQ9ssD Tyler Durden

“The Jig Is Up For The Dollar” – Andrew Maguire

Via Greg Hunter’s USA Watchdog blog,

Will physical gold and silver prices ever break free of manipulation and price suppression?

Renowned gold expert Andrew Maguire with Tom Coughlin, who is CEO of Kinesis that will be rolling out a gold backed currency in the fall, both say yes.  So, what is it about?  Coughlin explains, “It’s actually classified as a monetary system, and it’s called Kinesis.  The reason we call it Kinesis is that it actually stimulates the flow of money.  We see this as reintroducing the gold and silver standard through this monetary system.”

Maguire says there will be actual precious metal backing it up. Maguire says,

“The backup will be gram for gram.  This is the interesting part about it.  We all know that the paper markets (for gold) have leverage of 500 to 1.  We actually think it is much closer to 1,000 to 1 when you account for all the derivatives…

Here’s the thing about Kinesis.  We’re talking about a market that is at the margin.  It’s so tight this physical/paper market is already at the margin.  We are witnessing right now real competing physical demand, and that is forcing discipline on the paper market, and it raises the point where the lines cross…

What’s it going to do to the paper market?  It’s going to raise the offer to sell immediately deliverable physical gold…Kinesis is going to be a game changer.”

So, has Comex and the LBMA already lost control? Coughlin says,

“Not necessarily.  My view is they will control it until the very end, until you basically get a market failure or defaulted delivery.  There is a lot of defaulted delivery going on right now or delayed delivery.”

Andrew Maguire adds, “We are very close to a price reset (in gold and silver)…

“What is a price reset?  It is no more than settling… close to a trillion dollars of derivatives that are underwater and unable to be delivered.  It is going to be a simple paper market reset. 

I suggest it will likely happen on a Friday…and there will be a known default and a price adjustment for Monday morning…

You will be into a bid only market.  There would not be any offers to sell gold…I am not going to guess on a price…

I know of two investor groups that are buying physical gold because they know there is going to be a physical price reset.”

In closing, Maguire says,

“The jig’s up for the American dollar. Obviously, it’s not going to be overnight, but it is happening.  Gold has to appreciate in this environment.”

Join Greg Hunter as he interviews gold expert Andrew Maguire with Kinesis CEO Tom Coughlin.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2pOIAtf Tyler Durden

Satellite Images Reveal “Massive Show Of Force” By 40 Chinese Warships, Aircraft Carrier

In what Reuters has dubbed a massive “show of force“, dozens of Chinese warships have been observed on satellite imagery, exercising with an aircraft carrier and warplanes above the heavily-disputed South China Sea, as part of the previously noted  massive military drills, which the PLA ominously said were “in preparation for war.”

The four images, provided by Planet Labs for Reuters confirms the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning joined the annual naval war drill earlier this week.

According to the Taiwan Defense & National Security ministry, late last week Taiwan sent two ships and military aircraft to shadow the Chinese aircraft carrier group through the narrow Taiwan Strait.

The images, taken on Monday by Planet Labs flock of miniature satellites, show at least forty naval vessels, submarines, and aircraft in what some military strategist “described as an unusually large display of the Chinese military’s growing naval might,” said Reuters.

Up to forty naval vessels can be seen in a line formation, while submarines flank the aircraft carrier called Liaoning labeled below.

Jeffrey Lewis, the director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), told Reuters: “It is an incredible picture. That is the big news to me. Confirmation that, yes, the carrier participated in the exercise.”

Liaoning, a Type 001 aircraft carrier, is the first aircraft carrier commissioned into the People’s Liberation Army Navy Surface Force, a branch of the People’s Liberation Army Navy.

Some military strategists believe that China could use the carrier group and its militarized islands to defend its maritime territorial and exclusive economic zone (EEZ), as well as claims in the East China (ECS) and the South China Sea (SCS).

Collin Koh, a security expert at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told Reuters that the deployment of warships is “unusual for its size and scope.”

“Judging by the images, it does seem they are keen to show that elements of the South Sea Fleet are able to routinely join up with the carrier strike group from Dalian in the north,” he said.

“It does seem they want to show inter-fleet interoperability – something the (Chinese) navy has been quietly working on for some time.”

Koh further said the show of naval force was also accompanied by “destroyers, frigates and submarines” that would normally support a carrier group, the flotilla even included a “large oiler for re-supply as well as smaller corvettes and possibly fast attack catamarans.”

“While it highlights an extensive ability to deploy, we are still left to guess at China’s combat readiness,” Koh said. 

There are still many unknowns surrounding the final destination and duration of the exercise. Nevertheless, Marine Traffic shows that the drill is being conducted in some of the busiest shipping lanes in the world.

The drill comes amid increasing tensions in the South China Sea, with Vietnam, China, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan; which all have overlapping claims to the resource-rich waterway. Claims on the South China Sea explained below:

What does this all mean? For China to keep peace in the South China Sea, it requires Beijing to conduct continuous large-scale deterrence naval operations in the region. This will be the first of many such “deterrence” ops in which China will parade its massive fleet of warships throughout the heavily contested waters.

However, neither Beijing nor Washington want war in the region; at least for the foreseeable future. Still, China’s worst-case scenario, in which someone does take it on its dare, might have been realized with the new addition of President Trump’s new National Security Advisor John Bolton.

For that reason, the situation in the South China Sea will continue becoming tenser in the months ahead.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2E69Ico Tyler Durden