Month: March 2018

Responding to public and political outrage, on Wednesday morning Facebook announced a reorganization of the privacy settings that users and have long criticized as a seeming afterthought, and which will provide for better privacy data control and make it easier for users to find, download and delete data — changes that come as the company remains embroiled in a global scandal over its handling of user data which has sent its stock into a bear market in the past week. 

The changes include a new “Privacy Shortcuts” menu with written explanations of each relevant option; an “Access Your Information” feature that lets users easily delete individual posts and “likes”; and what’s billed as a streamlined way for users to download all the data Facebook has on them. The new layout will also result in a redesigned menu on mobile devices will have all sections in one single place under settings tab; users will also be able to review what’s been shared and deleted. The company also proposes updates to terms of service and data policy.

“It’s time to make our privacy tools easier to find,” Facebook officials say in a blog post Wednesday detailing the changes, which are unlikely to satisfy critics who want major reforms in the way the social media giant handles the data of its more than 2 billion users.

However, the section that will attract the most interest is the following:

Tools to find, download and delete your Facebook data. It’s one thing to have a policy explaining what data we collect and use, but it’s even more useful when people see and manage their own information. Some people want to delete things they’ve shared in the past, while others are just curious about the information Facebook has. So we’re introducing Access Your Information – a secure way for people to access and manage their information, such as posts, reactions, comments, and things you’ve searched for. You can go here to delete anything from your timeline or profile that you no longer want on Facebook.

The tweaks come a week and a half after the revelation that the Donald Trump-aligned political data firm Cambridge Analytica had obtained information on about 50 million U.S. users before the 2016 election. The resulting outrage in the U.S. and Europe has given new life to long-standing complaints that it’s too difficult for Facebook users to control or know who can view their posts, messages, photos, “likes” and other content.

The Facebook officials making Wednesday’s announcement, chief privacy officer Erin Egan and deputy general counsel Ashlie Beringer, acknowledged the complaints and confusion.

“The last week showed how much more work we need to do to enforce our policies, and to help people understand how Facebook works and the choices they have over their data,” write Egan and Beringer. “We’ve heard loud and clear that privacy settings and other important tools are too hard to find, and that we must to do more to keep people informed.”

On mobile devices, write Egan and Beringer, “instead of having settings spread across nearly 20 different screens, they’re now accessible from a single place.”

As Politico notes, some of the changes may have been ones Facebook would have made anyway to comply with a sweeping European Union data-privacy rule that takes effect in May. Among other things, it requires companies to request users’ consent for use of their data in an “intelligible and easily accessible form, using clear and plain language.”

The full Facebook post can be found here.

In response to the Facebook announcement, the stock was trading modestly higher, up just over 1% in the pre-market, and while this may be a key first step for the company to put the political scandal behind it, the loss of valuable, and – to advertisers – critical user-level data, means that Facebook’s profit margin will suffer going forward as it becomes just another run-of-the-mill site with far less effective user targeting.

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Following yesterday’s violent and unexpected equity selloff, driven by a so-called “tech wreck” as the FANG+ index dropped by 5.7%, the most on record, and stood on the edge of a key support line precipice…

… this morning, global stocks are predictably lower across the globe, as the tech sector fallout spreads across Asia and Europe…

… although S&P futures are off session lows, with 2,600 providing a support level for the time being, and should that fail, all eyes will be on the 200-DMA, some 15 points lower.

As noted yesterday, on Tuesday US tech shares suffered their worst drop since the February rout, as investors were spooked by bad news from companies including Nvidia, Twitter and Facebook. As Bloomberg notes, the latest leg down for tech shares, which have been the driving force for much of the current bull market in global equities and represent the most popular investment for the hedge fund community, comes at a sensitive time. Stock markets trading with high valuations and tighter liquidity are already being shaken by protectionist moves by Donald Trump. His administration is mulling a crackdown on Chinese investments in technologies the U.S. considers sensitive, the latest step in his plan to punish China for violations of intellectual-property rights.

The tech rout spooked Asia, where the ASX 200 (-0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.3%) tumbled, while weakness in commodities also contributed to the glum. Elsewhere, KOSPI (-1.3%) pharmaceutical and metal stocks joined the tech underperformance after reports stated South Korea steel exports to US would decline 30% under the new trade agreement and that South Korea will amend its premium pricing program for pharmaceuticals to allow participation of US drug makers. Hang Seng (-2.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.4%) were also dragged by the tech slide, while encouraging earnings from big 4 banks ICBC and China Construction Bank only provided brief support and was eventually engulfed by the stock rout.

Europe was no better, with equities (Eurostoxx -1.0%) extending the risk-averse tone seen in the US and Asia, triggered by a tech sell-off which prompted losses within the IT sector in Europe this morning, augmented by month- end flows. As such, semiconductors are the laggards with Dialog Semiconductors (-13.0%), Infineon (-4.0%), ASML Holding (-4.4%) and STMicroelectronics (-5.2%) the worst performers whereas utilities remain slightly supported. In terms of individual movers, Shire (+15.5%) is leading the FTSE 100 and lifting the healthcare sector (+0.5%) after Takeda confirmed to be considering an offer for the company.

Meanwhile, with most attention on equities, the big action overnight was in 10Y yields, where the growing tech turmoil forced 10Y yields out of the 20-bps range that’s held since early February.  On Wednesday, the 10Y benchmark dropped as much as three basis points Wednesday to 2.74 percent, the lowest level since Feb. 6, following an eight basis-point drop Tuesday.

The yield has broken below the key 50-day moving average for the first time since mid-December.

Commenting on the move, FTN strategist Jim Vogel wrote in a note that for those caught off-guard by the extent of the bond rally, the shift is “still not alarming but definitely worth watching current rates if equities can’t find their way home. As various tech and social media stories continue to get pummeled on a regular basis, however, trading at 2.805 percent and below is gaining ground.”

It could get worse: as Mark Cudmore warned this morning, positioning in Treasuries signals a shakeout could be in the offing. As of last week, hedge funds and other large speculators had a net short position in 10-year Treasury futures that was the close to record highs. A break of technical levels like moving averages could shift momentum and lead them to cover their bets to protect from further losses. In this context, BMO Capital now expects 2.671% as the next level in sight for the 10-year maturity, which may pause at 2.752 percent. BMO earlier this month said they’re confident that that yields already peaked for 2018.

Also notable, as Bloomberg points out it’s not just the 10-year maturity grappling with re-pricing. Eurodollars advanced by as much as five basis points on Wednesday, while the OIS market is now pricing in less than two Federal Reserve rate hikes for the remainder of the year.

In FX, just like yesterday, the USD has rallied against most G-10 peers again, with month/quarter end positioning still providing support, while the Yen is at session lows, with the USDJPY trading just shy of 105.90 after overnight China officially confirmed that Kim Jong Un met with Xi Jinping and discussed the upcoming meeting with Trump and his eagerness to denuclearize the Korean peninsula.

GBP an early outperformer after reports of an imminent proposal on the Irish border issue. In addition to the summit between China and North Korea, the yen also weakened following news that Japan’s Takeda is hoping to acquire the now bigger Shire PLC.

All core fixed income markets well supported, UST 2s10s re-approach flattest level of the year. Crude futures hold overnight losses after bearish API data, spot gold weighted by USD rally.

Bulletin Headine Summary from RanSquawk

• European equities have extended losses after tech slipped on Wall St. and Asia
• USD firmer vs. all G10 approaching quarter and Japanese financial year end
• Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP, PCE Prices, Pending Home Sales, DoEs and Fed’s Bostic

Top Overnight News

• The Trump administration is considering a crackdown on Chinese investments in technologies the U.S. deems sensitive by invoking a law reserved for national emergencies, among other options, according to people familiar with the matter
• China confirmed Wednesday that Kim met with President Xi Jinping on a surprise visit to Beijing, and said the North Korean leader would be willing to give up his nuclear weapons and hold a summit with the U.S.
• In this bull market alone there’s been five other corrections like this one, and it’s taken around seven months on average for equities to climb out of their hole. Based on that path, the current jitters won’t be fully eradicated until August
• Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says sanctions against North Korea must be kept until the country takes concrete steps to abandon nuclear weapons and missiles
• China considers allowing more derivatives trading under bond connect and the country will steadily accelerate pace of bond market opening up, PBOC official Gao Fei says
• Irish officials have been told to expect new plans “imminently” from U.K. on how it plans to avoid a post-Brexit hard border, The Times reports, citing sources
• The U.S. Treasury finished its slate of bill auctions for the month, with their sale Tuesday of 4-week securities seeing good demand
• Thanks to fresh blows to companies from Nvidia Corp. to Facebook Inc., the biggest industry in the S&P 500 Index dropped 3.5 percent, the biggest decline since the broad-market selloff reached its worst point on Feb. 8

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,609.75
• STOXX Europe 600 down 1% to 363.90
• MXAP down 1.4% to 172.41
• MXAPJ down 1.6% to 562.73
• Nikkei down 1.3% to 21,031.31
• Topix down 1% to 1,699.56
• Hang Seng Index down 2.5% to 30,022.53
• Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 3,122.29
• Sensex down 0.4% to 33,035.44
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 5,789.47
• Kospi down 1.3% to 2,419.29
• German 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 0.486%
• Euro down 0.04% to $1.2398
• Italian 10Y yield fell 3.7 bps to 1.619%
• Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.236%
• Brent futures down 0.6% to $69.69/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,340.98
• U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 89.47

Asian equity markets traded negative across the board as the region followed suit from the losses on Wall St where trade concerns lingered and tech sold-off, while some also attributed the exacerbated pressure to flows heading into  month-end and Easter break. As such, ASX 200 (-0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.3%) were lower as tech stocks conformed to the losses in their counterparts stateside, while weakness in commodities also contributed to the glum. Elsewhere, KOSPI (-1.3%) pharmaceutical and metal stocks joined the tech underperformance after reports stated South Korea steel exports to US would decline 30% under the new trade agreement and that South Korea will amend its premium pricing program for pharmaceuticals to allow participation of US drug makers. Hang Seng (-2.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.4%) were also dragged by the tech slide, while encouraging earnings from big 4 banks ICBC and China Construction Bank only provided brief support and was eventually engulfed by the stock rout. Finally, 10yr JGBs saw a tale of two-halves as they initially tracked the gains in T-notes amid a flight to quality from the stock market sell-off and with the BoJ also present in the market under its bond buying program, before gains were then pared on return from the Tokyo break in which prices returned flat

Top Asian News

• JPMorgan Looks Beyond Finance to Hire Tech, Math Grads in Asia
• Bank Indonesia’s Incoming Governor Pledges Growth, Stability
• Time Is Running Out for the Philippine Exchange Merger Deal
• Sri Lanka Plans Dollar Loans and Bonds as Maturing Debt Looms
• Chung Family to Overhaul Hyundai Motor Group Ownership Structure

European equities (Eurostoxx -1.0%) have extended on the risk-averse tone seen in the US and Asia, triggered by a tech sell-off which prompted losses within the IT sector in Europe this morning, augmented by month-end flows. As such, semiconductors are the laggards with Dialog Semiconductors (-13.0%), Infineon (-4.0%), ASML Holding (-4.4%) and STMicroelectronics (-5.2%) the worst performers whereas utilities remain slightly supported. In terms of individual movers, Shire (+15.5%) is leading the FTSE 100 and lifting the healthcare sector (+0.5%) after Takeda confirmed to be considering an offer for the Co., although considerations are at a prelim stage and no approach has been made yet. Elsewhere, Melrose (-0.5%) have continued to defend their approach for GKN ahead of tomorrow’s deadline.

Top European News

• Banca Carige Says Conditions Not Right for Planned Tier 2 Deal
• Faurecia Says Signed Record Contract for Seats With BMW
• It’s Back to the 80s for Brexit-Hit Broadcasters Without Deal

In FX, another rebalancing model is Usd positive for month, quarter and Japanese financial year end, albeit ‘moderately’, while a separate bank is looking to buy the Greenback vs the Pound, Loonie, Aud and Nok if global stocks fall further. Hence, the Dollar retains an underlying bid on dips and is firmer vs all G10 peers bar the Gbp, which is deriving some independent support on latest Brexit headlines (reports that an Irish border resolution is in the offing). Cable and Eur/Gbp are bucking the broader trend, with the former hovering just below 1.4200 after a retreat to test the first layer of bids said to be macro-related in the 1.4135-25 area, and the latter seeing some resistance around 0.8750. Eur/Usd is also holding up relatively well near 1.2400 where decent option expiry interest lies (1.6 bn), but also as tech support at the 100 HMA (1.2379) holds. In fact, the Eur is defying some end of March ‘strong’ selling calls and outperforming other majors, like the Sek and Nok in wake of weaker than expected retail sales data from  both Scandi nations overall. Even the Chf is weaker despite the resurgence of risk aversion, while its traditional safe- haven counterpart, Jpy, is caught between the aforementioned downturn in sentiment and more positive geopolitical vibes on the NK-SK-US front. Usd/Jpy rangy between 105.69 and 105.96 200 HMA and Fib levels respectively. Usd/Cad is back around 1.2900 despite constructive NAFTA negotiations, while Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd remain bearish, as the former has breached its recent 0.7672 low and the latter tests support/bids at 0.7250.

In commodities, the commodities complex continues to be subdued amid the dampened risk appetite. WTI (-0.9%) and Brent (-0.6%) futures are extending losses with prices pressured by the surprise build in API crude inventories (5.321M vs. Exp. -0.300M). Additionally, the Iraqi oil Minister Luaibi stated that Iraq will not deviate from any OPEC decisions on crude supply; this follows the Saudi Crown Prince stating OPEC seeks a 10 to 20-year supply co-operation with Russia as well as other producers. Gold (-0.1%) slipped from a 5-week high as a firmer dollar is weighing on the yellow metal. Fears of a trade war continue to cast a shadow over the base metal market with copper (-0.6%) lower and Dalian iron ore futures slipping to their lowest since June shortly after the open.

Looking at the day ahead, datawise all eyes will be on the US with the third and final revisions due to be made for Q4 GDP, while the February advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and pending home sales data are also   due out. The Fed’s Bostic is due to again make comments in the late afternoon.

US event calendar

• 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.7%, prior 2.5%
  • Personal Consumption, est. 3.8%, prior 3.8%
  • GDP Price Index, est. 2.3%, prior 2.3%
  • Core PCE QoQ, est. 1.9%, prior 1.9%
• 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $74.4b deficit, prior $74.4b deficit, revised $75.3b deficit
• 8:30am: Retail Inventories MoM, prior 0.8%, revised 0.7%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.8%
• 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 2.0%, prior -4.7%; NSA YoY, prior -1.7%

DB’s Craig Nicol concludes the overnight wrap

Well, at least we can say that we’re getting used to this now. After things appeared eerily quiet throughout the morning and all the way up until the European close, US equities suffered more huge falls last night, undoing much of  the good work on Monday. The S&P 500 finished -1.73% – although stayed just above the 200-day moving average – and the Dow ended -1.43%. To put some perspective on things, the last four days have seen points moves for the  Dow of 345, 669, 425 and 724. That’s an average of 541 points. The average daily move in 2017 was just 68 points and there were only 3 days last year when there was a move of at least 300 points. Incredible.

What was striking about yesterday though was that bonds also finally got in on the act with 10y Treasury yields finally snapping out of a 22-day range to close below 2.80% for the first time since February 5th, eventually finishing at 2.776% (-7.7bps). The curve flattened too with 2s10s 7.0bps flatter. That puts it at the flattest since early January. Bunds also crept under 0.50% for the first time since January and they are now down 26bps from the 2018 high. We also couldn’t help but notice that the value of negative yielding bonds around the globe is back up to $8.8tn. This is after the combined value fell below $7.0tn in early February.

Anyway, the blame yesterday for equity markets – and the broader risk-off tone – was firmly placed at the hands of the tech sector again where it appears that there are more than a few chinks in the armour now. Indeed, tech names were down -3.47% in the S&P 500 while the Nasdaq tumbled -2.93% and notched up its fourth consecutive session whereby the index has moved at least 2% in either direction. The last time that happened was in late September 2011. The NYSE FANG index – which includes 10 of the largest global tech names – fell a whopping -5.63% and the most since 2014 when the index first started. It also lost a combined $134bn in market cap yesterday, which now means those names have lost $320bn in value since the index peaked back on March 12th. Facebook tumbled -4.87% and seems to be at the centre of any selloff related to the sector at the moment however news that Nvidia was suspending self-driving car testing and Tesla was undergoing another investigation related to a crash last year just compounded the pain. The Nasdaq equivalent of the VIX rose to 29.01 last night (up nearly 4 points from Monday) and is closing back in on the February high of 33.89.

Overnight, some of the focus has shifted to the news that China has confirmed North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un has indeed visited Beijing and met with China’s President Xi. Local Chinese press Xinhua reported Kim as saying that “the issue of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula can be resolved, if South Korea and the United States respond to our efforts with goodwill, create an atmosphere of peace and stability while taking progressive and synchronous measures for the realization of peace”. While there is no sign that an agreement has been made, the language is clearly a lot more conciliatory ahead of a proposed meeting between Kim and President Trump. Despite that development, bourses in Asia have followed the negative US lead from last night and are trading lower with the Nikkei (-1.77%), Kospi (-1.32%), Hang Seng (-1.03%), ASX 200 (-0.68%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.61%) all down as we type. The Yen is a shade weaker while the Korean won has been the biggest gainer this morning.

Moving on. As we noted at the top the wave of selling really started after Europe went home yesterday with the Stoxx 600 and DAX actually rebounding with +1.21% and +1.56% gains. There was a slight mid-afternoon blip which  came after headlines hit the wires saying that the US was moving to curb Chinese investments in the US. However, that news was nothing new and it was pointed out that the share of foreign direct investment held by China in the US, while growing, is still very small and the bigger issue remains trade policies in this ongoing game of chess between the two nations.

So, while the moves late in the evening for the tech sector dominated, there were some other snippets worth highlighting from the last 24 hours. Over at the Fed, an interview by the WSJ with Atlanta Fed’s Bostic  (neutral/voter) revealed that the Fed President is an advocate of gradually raising rates, however cited that he was unsure over how the economy might respond to the planned tax cuts and increased government spending next year, which in turn could complicate the outlook for monetary policy.

The ECB’s Nowotny also spoke yesterday morning and stuck to the largely consensus playbook that the ECB should be able to cut stimulus after September, with a decision likely to be made in the summer. Nowotny also cited that there are two lessons to learn from the Fed, one being to act when necessary and the other is to be careful and communicate in a timely fashion. There was also some data in Europe yesterday and it was a touch on the softer side. The first was the economic sentiment index for the Euro area which fell a little bit more than expected in February to 112.6 (vs. 113.3 expected) from 114.2 in January – matching the decline in the PMIs somewhat. The money and credit aggregates report from the ECB also showed a deceleration in M3 money supply to 4.2% yoy from 4.6% while on the credit side growth slowed to 3.0% from 3.2%. It’s worth pointing out that a measure of economic surprises in the Eurozone is hovering at the lowest since March 2016 right now which is in contrast to a similar  measure in the US which is only just off the December 2017 highs and the highest since the GFC.

Staying with Europe, local Italian press and Bloomberg reported yesterday morning that Five Star was supposedly offering some ministerial positions to the Northern League. The read-through was that this showed 5SM’s intention to win support from the NL and in turn pressing the latter to form a government, but without the whole centre-right. The bigger question is how the NL balance potentially trying to reach a deal with the 5SM, but without losing centre-right support, which could jeopardize Salvini’s (leader of the NL) ability to become prime minister. As we said yesterday there is still a long way to go so it’s likely that this ebbs and flows for some time.

Here in the UK, the Times newspaper has reported overnight that the UK is to offer a hard border resolution imminently, with details beyond just the so-called backstop plan. Sterling is up another +0.22% this morning and is approaching the February highs again of $1.426.

For completeness, in terms of the remaining data flow from yesterday, in the US the March conference board consumer confidence index fell 2.3pts from last month’s 17 year high to a still solid level of 127.7 (vs. 131.0 expected), with a modest mom decline in both the present situation and expectations index. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index was below consensus at 15 (vs. 22 expected) while the January S&P Corelogic house price index was above market at +0.75% mom (vs. +0.6% expected), leading to annual growth of +6.4% yoy. Back in Europe, the final reading on the Euro area’s March consumer confidence was unrevised at 0.1 while the business climate index was a touch below at 1.34 (vs. 1.36 expected). Elsewhere, Spain’s March CPI was below market at +1.3% yoy (vs. 1.5% expected).

Looking at the day ahead, datawise all eyes will be on the US with the third and final revisions due to be made for Q4 GDP, while the February advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and pending home sales data are also   due out. The Fed’s Bostic is due to again make comments in the late afternoon. In Europe consumer confidence prints in Germany and France as well as March CBI retail sales data in the UK is due.

 

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Japan’s Takeda Pharmaceutical said it is considering the acquisition of Shire PLC whose market cap of $40 billion (before the announcement) makes it one of the world’s largest pharma companies. Takeda said a deal with Shire would create a global biopharmaceutical leader, strengthening the Japanese company’s core therapeutic areas of oncology, gastrointestinal disorders, and neuroscience.

The acquisition would leave Takeda with a portfolio of specialty drugs with a particular focus on gastrointestinal diseases and nervous system ailments, according to Bloomberg and WSJ. Takeda said it hasn’t approached Shire’s board yet and the proposal is at a “preliminary and exploratory” stage. The Japanese pharma didn’t disclose any financial details of a potential offer.

Japan’s biggest drugmaker has signaled it’s ready to take on more deals and partnerships as it seeks to build an identity beyond its home market, where a shrinking population limits growth opportunities. With a market value of about $42 billion, Takeda is smaller than the potential takeover target after Shire’s rally Wednesday, which has pushed Shire’s market cap to approximately $50 billion.

Shire’s shares soared more than 20% on the news before paring back some gains.

Still, with today’s move the stock price of Shire is only back to where it was at the beginning of the year.

The Massachusetts-based, London-listed Shire previously tried and failed to complete an “inversion” deal with AbbVie after the Obama administration introduced new rules to discourage inversions.

Takeda also said acquiring Shire would balance its geographic focus to align with the market opportunity in the US. The potential deal would unfold against a backdrop of other pharma mergers and buyouts – including GSK’s $13 billion agreement to buy out its joint venture with Novartis.

This is just the latest transaction for Takeda which made a slew of deals in 2018: it announced an offer to acquire TiGenix NV, a Belgian maker of stem-cell therapies, for 520 million euros ($645 million) in January, as well as a $150 million initial payment to Denali Therapeutics Inc. for a partnership to develop drugs for neurodegenerative diseases. In February, Takeda promised another $230 million to Wave Life Sciences for a pact on treatments for disorders of the central nervous system.

According to Bloomberg, Takeda still has the scope for acquisitions after the $4.7 billion purchase of U.S. biotech Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc. last year, Chief Executive Officer Christophe Weber said in a November interview. He said then that the company is mainly focused on forming more research partnerships and moving its pipeline products into later stages of development to help drive growth.  Shire would give Takeda a broader portfolio in the U.S. as well as an entree to the hemophilia market, which fits Weber’s stated goal of expanding in more expensive drugs targeted to small patient groups.

A deal for Shire would surpass Takeda’s 2011 acquisition of Nycomed for $13.7 billion including debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Japanese companies have announced $26.5 billion of overseas acquisitions this year, up from $17.8 billion in the same period a year earlier.

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One day after he correctly warned that equities have not yet bottomed – just hours before the Dow Jones tumbled from up over 200 to down over 400 points at one point as the tech sector imploded – this morning former Lehman trader and current Bloomberg macro commentator Mark Cudmore issues another warning, this time about Treasuries, which he thinks may be poised for a sharp spike higher as yields tumble. He explains why in his latest Macro View column below:

Treasuries Jump May Be the Start of Something Bigger: Macro View

The probability of Treasury 10-year yields collapsing is much higher than most investors seem to realize. The readjustment in pricing may be just getting started.

It’s not going to take too much for serious discussion to begin over the possibility the Fed’s hiking cycle may be at an end, or near an end, already.

This doesn’t even need to become the base case for yields to slump, it just needs to become a plausible- enough outcome for the market to squeeze out the large speculative short position in Treasuries.

The building blocks for this narrative are already in place. Thursday’s PCE inflation data may provide the required catalyst.

Financial conditions have tightened considerably in the last two months. Libor spreads have widened significantly — because of structural issues — but that still acts as effective policy tightening.

Trade, politics and commodities are all going to start weighing on the growth outlook. The slump in equities may soon be significant enough to be a concern for the Fed because of the impact on consumer sentiment, which has remained a bright spot in U.S. data, and the wealth effect.

As the manufacturing center for so much that the U.S. consumes, China’s PPI has had an excellent correlation with U.S. CPI in recent years. The former is still trending down after both measures peaked in February 2017. The March data for both is due April 11. Given how industrial metals and agricultural prices have slumped this month, there are strong reasons to expect China PPI to slide again.

The technical break lower in yields was made Tuesday. Fundamentals are supportive of the move. Positioning is offside and therefore any related corrective adjustment will quickly add downside momentum to yields.

Tomorrow brings February’s PCE data, supposedly one of the Fed’s preferred inflation measures. The consensus forecast is for the core number to climb to 1.6% year-on-year. That paltry rate of inflation would still be the highest since since March last year.

A miss of just 0.1 of a percentage point and investors will start considering the possibility that inflation may already have peaked, and hence perhaps so has the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle. That would put the cat amongst the short Treasury pigeons (positions).

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Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

There are numerous ways to define the Precautionary Principle. It’s something we can all intuitively understand, but which many parties seek ways to confuse since it has the potential to stand in the way of profits. Still, in the end it should all be about proof, not profits. That is exactly what the Principle addresses. Because if you first need to deliver scientific proof that some action or product can be harmful to mankind and/or the natural world, you run the risk of inflicting irreversible damage before that proof can be delivered.

In one of many definitions, the 1998 Wingspread Statement on the Precautionary Principle says: “When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are not fully established scientifically.”

Needless to say, that doesn’t easily fly in our age of science and money.

Cigarette makers, car manufacturers and oil companies, just to name a few among a huge number of industries, are all literally making a killing while the Precautionary Principle is being ignored. Even as it is being cited in many international treaties. Lip service “R” us. Are these industries to blame when they sell us our products, or are we for buying them? That’s where governments must come in to educate us about risks. Which they obviously do not.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb -of Black Swan and Antifragile fame- has made the case, in his usual strong fashion, for applying the Precautionary Principle when it comes to GMOs. His argument is that allowing genetically modified organisms in our eco- and foodsystems carries unknown risks that we have no way of overseeing, and that these risks may cause irreversible damage to the very systems mankind relies on for survival.

Taleb is not popular among GMO producers. Who all insist there is no evidence that their products cause harm. But that is not the point. The Precautionary Principle, if it is to be applied, must turn the burden of proof on its head. The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Monsanto et al must prove that their products do no harm. They can not. Which is why they have, and need, huge lobbying, PR and legal departments.

But I didn’t want to talk about GMOs today, and not about Precautionary Principle alone. I wanted to talk about this: Paragraph 2 of article 191 of the European Union’s Lisbon Treaty (2009) states that:

“Union policy on the environment shall aim at a high level of protection taking into account the diversity of situations in the various regions of the Union. It shall be based on the precautionary principle and on the principles that preventive action should be taken, that environmental damage should as a priority be rectified at source and that the polluter should pay.”

In other words, the EU has committed itself to the Precautionary Principle. Well, on paper, that is. However, then we get to a whole series of reports on wildlife in Europe, and they indicate all sorts of things, but not that Brussels cares even one bit about adhering to the Precautionary Principle, either for its people or its living environment. One voice below calls it a “state of denial”, but I would use some other choice words. Let’s start with the Guardian this morning, because they have an interesting perspective:

Most Britons remain blithely unaware that since the Beatles broke up, we have wiped out half our wildlife…

…since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the number of flying insects on nature reserves in Germany had dropped by at least 76% – more than three-quarters…

Things like ‘since you were born’, ‘since man landed on the moon’, ‘since the wall came down’ or ‘since 9/11’ may be a bit clearer than 100 years, or 25 years. Moreover, I read somewhere that since Columbus landed in 1492, America has lost on third of all its biodiversity, but that doesn’t yet explain the rate of acceleration that is taking place.

In October last year, the Guardian had this:

Three-Quarters Of Flying Insects In Germany Have Vanished In 25 Years

The abundance of flying insects has plunged by three-quarters over the past 25 years , according to a new study that has shocked scientists. Insects are an integral part of life on Earth as both pollinators and prey for other wildlife and it was known that some species such as butterflies were declining. But the newly revealed scale of the losses to all insects has prompted warnings that the world is “on course for ecological Armageddon”, with profound impacts on human society.

The new data was gathered in nature reserves across Germany but has implications for all landscapes dominated by agriculture, the researchers said. The cause of the huge decline is as yet unclear, although the destruction of wild areas and widespread use of pesticides are the most likely factorsand climate change may play a role. The scientists were able to rule out weather and changes to landscape in the reserves as causes, but data on pesticide levels has not been collected.

“The fact that the number of flying insects is decreasing at such a high rate in such a large area is an alarming discovery,” said Hans de Kroon, at Radboud University in the Netherlands and who led the new research. “Insects make up about two-thirds of all life on Earth [but] there has been some kind of horrific decline,” said Prof Dave Goulson of Sussex University, UK, and part of the team behind the new study. “We appear to be making vast tracts of land inhospitable to most forms of life , and are currently on course for ecological Armageddon. If we lose the insects then everything is going to collapse.”

[..] When the total weight of the insects in each sample was measured a startling decline was revealed. The annual average fell by 76% over the 27 year period, but the fall was even higher – 82% – in summer, when insect numbers reach their peak. Previous reports of insect declines have been limited to particular insects, such European grassland butterflies, which have fallen by 50% in recent decades. But the new research captured all flying insects, including wasps and flies which are rarely studied, making it a much stronger indicator of decline.

Then last week from AFP:

France’s Bird Population Collapses As Pesticides Kill Off Insects

Bird populations across the French countryside have fallen by a third over the last decade and a half, researchers have said. Dozens of species have seen their numbers decline, in some cases by two-thirds, the scientists said in a pair of studies – one national in scope and the other covering a large agricultural region in central France. “The situation is catastrophic,” said Benoit Fontaine, a conservation biologist at France’s National Museum of Natural History and co-author of one of the studies. “Our countryside is in the process of becoming a veritable desert,” he said in a communique released by the National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), which also contributed to the findings.

The common white throat, the ortolan bunting, the Eurasian skylark and other once-ubiquitous species have all fallen off by at least a third, according a detailed, annual census initiated at the start of the century. A migratory song bird, the meadow pipit, has declined by nearly 70%. The museum described the pace and extent of the wipe-out as “a level approaching an ecological catastrophe”. The primary culprit, researchers speculate, is the intensive use of pesticides on vast tracts of monoculture crops, especially wheat and corn. The problem is not that birds are being poisoned, but that the insects on which they depend for food have disappeared.

“There are hardly any insects left, that’s the number one problem,”said Vincent Bretagnolle, a CNRS ecologist at the Centre for Biological Studies in Chize. Recent research, he noted, has uncovered similar trends across Europe, estimating that flying insects have declined by 80%, and bird populations has dropped by more than 400m in 30 years. Despite a government plan to cut pesticide use in half by 2020, sales in France have climbed steadily, reaching more than 75,000 tonnes of active ingredient in 2014, according to EU figures. “What is really alarming, is that all the birds in an agricultural setting are declining at the same speed, even ’generalist’ birds,” which also thrive in other settings such as wooded areas, said Bretagnolle.

Not that it’s just Europe, mind you. Still ‘ove’ this one from Gretchen Vogel in ScienceMag, about a year ago, on a phenomenon most of you stateside will have noticed too:

Where Have All The Insects Gone?

Entomologists call it the windshield phenomenon. “If you talk to people, they have a gut feeling. They remember how insects used to smash on your windscreen,” says Wolfgang Wägele, director of the Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity in Bonn, Germany. Today, drivers spend less time scraping and scrubbing. “I’m a very data-driven person,” says Scott Black, executive director of the Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation in Portland, Oregon. “But it is a visceral reaction when you realize you don’t see that mess anymore.”

Some people argue that cars today are more aerodynamic and therefore less deadly to insects. But Black says his pride and joy as a teenager in Nebraska was his 1969 Ford Mustang Mach 1—with some pretty sleek lines. “I used to have to wash my car all the time. It was always covered with insects.” Lately, Martin Sorg, an entomologist here, has seen the opposite: “I drive a Land Rover, with the aerodynamics of a refrigerator, and these days it stays clean.”

Though observations about splattered bugs aren’t scientific, few reliable data exist on the fate of important insect species. Scientists have tracked alarming declines in domesticated honey bees, monarch butterflies, and lightning bugs. But few have paid attention to the moths, hover flies, beetles, and countless other insects that buzz and flitter through the warm months. “We have a pretty good track record of ignoring most noncharismatic species,” which most insects are, says Joe Nocera, an ecologist at the University of New Brunswick in Canada.

After all those numbers, and before they get worse -which they will, it’s already baked in the cake-, you would expect the EU to remember the Precautionary Principle all its member nations signed on to for the Lisbon Treaty. You would expect wrong. Instead Brussels vows to continue with the exact same policies that have led to its mind-boggling biodiversity losses.

EU In ‘State Of Denial’ Over Destructive Impact Of Farming On Wildlife

Europe’s crisis of collapsing bird and insect numbers will worsen further over the next decade because the EU is in a “state of denial” over destructive farming practices, environmental groups are warning. European agriculture ministers are pushing for a new common agriculture policy (CAP) from 2021 to 2028 which maintains generous subsidies for big farmers and ineffectual or even “fake” environmental or “greening” measures, they say. In a week when two new studies revealed drastic declines in French farmland birds – a pattern repeated across Europe – the EU presidency claimed that the CAP continued to provide safe food while defending farmers and “protecting the environment”.

“The whole system is in a state of denial,” said Ariel Brunner, head of policy at Birdlife Europe. “Most agriculture ministers across Europe are just pushing for business as usual. The message is, keep the subsidies flowing.”Farm subsidies devour 38% of the EU budget and 80% of the subsidies go to just 20% of farmers , via “basic payments” which hand European landowners £39bn each year.

Because these payments are simply related to land area, big farmers receive more, can invest in more efficient food production – removing hedgerows to enlarge fields for instance – and put smaller, less intensive farmers out of business. France lost a quarter of its farm labourers in the first decade of the 21st century, while its average farm size continues to rise.

A smaller portion – £14.22bn annually – of EU farm subsidies support “greening” measures but basic payment rules work against wildlife-friendly farming: in Britain, farmers can’t receive basic payments for land featuring ponds, wide hedges, salt marsh or regenerating woodland. Signals from within the EU suggest that the next decade’s CAP [..] will continue to pay farmers a no-strings subsidy, while cash for “greening”, or wildlife-friendly farming, may even be cut. Birdlife Europe said the “greening” was mostly “fake environmental spending” and wildlife-friendly measures had been “shredded” by “loophole upon loophole” introduced by member states.

[..] This week studies revealed that the abundance of farmland birds in France had fallen by a third in 15 years – with population falls intensifying in the last two years. It’s a pattern repeated across Europe: farmland bird abundance in 28 European countries has fallen by 55% over three decades, according to the European Bird Census Council. Conservationists say it’s indicative of a wider crisis – particularly the decimation of insect life linked to neonicotinoid pesticides.

20% of farmers work 80% of the land in Europe. That is used as an argument to single them out to pay them billions in subsidies. But it simply means these 20% use the most detrimental farming methods, most pesticides, most chemicals. The subsidies policy guarantees further deterioration of an already disastrous situation. The polluter doesn’t pay, as the Lisbon Treaty demands, but the polluter gets paid.

And even that is apparently still not enough for the fast growing bureaucracy. In a move perhaps more characteristic of the EU than anything else, it approved something last week that a million people had vehemently protested: the Bayer-Monsanto merger. The European parliament may have thrown out all Monsanto lobbyists recently, and voted to ban Roundup, but the die has been cast.

A million citizens can protest in writing, many millions in France and Germany and elsewhere may do the same on the street, none of it matters. The people who brought you WWII nerve gases and Agent Orange can now come together to take over your food supply.

EU Approves Buyout Of Monsanto By German Chemical Firm Bayer

German conglomerate Bayer won EU antitrust approval on Wednesday for its $62.5bn (£44.5bn) buy of US peer Monsanto, the latest in a trio of mega mergers that will reshape the agrochemicals industry. The tie-up is set to create a company with control of more than a quarter of the world’s seed and pesticides market. Driven by shifting weather patterns, competition in grain exports and a faltering global farm economy, Dow and Dupont, and ChemChina and Syngenta had earlier led a wave of consolidation in the sector. Both deals secured EU approval only after the companies offered substantial asset sales to boost rivals.

Environmental and farming groups have opposed all three deals, worried about their power and their advantage in digital farming data, which can tell farmers how and when to till, sow, spray, fertilise and pick crops based on algorithms. The European Commission said Bayer addressed its concerns with its offer to sell a swathe of assets to boost rival BASF [..] “Our decision ensures that there will be effective competition and innovation in seeds, pesticides and digital agriculture markets also after this merger,” European Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager said in a statement. “In particular, we have made sure that the number of global players actively competing in these markets stays the same.”

[..] Vestager said the Commission, which received more than a million petitions concerning the deal, had been thorough by examining more than 2,000 different product markets and 2.7 million internal documents to produce a 1,285-page ruling. [..] Online campaigns group Avaaz criticised the EU approval. “This is a marriage made in hell. The Commission ignored a million people who called on them to block this deal, and caved in to lobbying to create a mega-corporation which will dominate our food supply,” Avaaz legal director Nick Flynn said.

Dow-Dupont, ChemChina and Bayer Monsanto have a lot more political influence than a million Europeans, or ten million Americans. They have even convinced numerous, if not most, people that without their products the world would starve. That their chemicals are needed to feed a growing human population. Farming based on algorythms.

They are not ‘seed companies’. They are ‘seeds-that-need-our-chemicals-to-grow’ companies. And they are out to conquer the entire world. A 100-times worse version of Facebook. And our governments subsidize the use of their products. As we not-so-slowly see our living world be massacred by those products.

We don’t know how bad GMOs will turn out to be. Which is in itself a very good reason to ban them. Since once they spread, they can’t be stopped anymore. Then the chemical boys will own all of our food. But we do know how bad the pesticides and other chemicals they produce are. And we’re not even banning those. We just eat all that sh*t and shut up.

It’s a failure to understand what science is: that you must proof harm first before banning stuff. The only real science is the one that has adopted the Precautionary Principle. Because science is supposed to be smart, and there’s nothing smart about destroying your own world. Because science should never be used to hurt people or nature. Science can only be good if it benefits us. Not our wallets, but our heads and hearts and forests, and our children. Do no harm.

Yeah, I know, who am I fooling, right?

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With several weeks remaining until steel and aluminum tariffs introduced a few weeks ago by the Trump administration take effect, the US and its largest trading partners are mired in behind-the-scenes negotiations to strike a deal that could win them an exemption from some or all of the tariffs.

And while recent leaks have focused primarily on the talks between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin,Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese economy czar Liu He, Bloomberg today reported that there’s a growing rift between Germany and France regarding how they should respond to the US tariffs.

Germany is willing to offer the US some concessions to protect its export-led economy; however, other EU members – including France – believe the bloc should offer no concessions. The EU is still trying to work out a common response to the Trump tariffs.

At stake is a trade relationship worth some $640 billion in 2016. Germany is in favor of any EU deal covering new rules on tariffs for a series of products including cars, machinery, foodstuffs and pharmaceuticals. That stance is not shared by France, which wants to focus on pressuring China over issues such as subsidies and overcapacity in the steel industry.

Chancellor Angela Merkel and her government are already feeling out the German car industry and whether they might be able to convince it to support a reduction to the EU’s 10% tariff on auto imports. Carmakers reportedly responded positively to the idea.

“Dialogue with the US must continue at the highest political level,” the VDA German car industry body said in a statement when asked about the report. “We advocate sustainable and reliable agreements that are WTO-compliant. In the interests of fair and free trade, it is necessary to dismantle each other’s trade barriers and to agree a new framework.”

German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, who met last week with US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, recently told reporters that he hadn’t made an offer. He later denied reports that he pitched lowering auto tariffs.

“It is only the EU which negotiates, united and together. I have neither made any offers nor any promises,” he said. A spokeswoman for his ministry added that he had kept EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom fully informed on the discussions.

Trump spoke on Tuesday with both Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, according to separate statements from the White House. Trump and Merkel discussed joining forces to counter China. Macron reminded Trump that European steel and aluminum exports are not a security threat to the US. Trump has largely predicated his protectionist push on national security concerns.

Merkel is trying to persuade Trump to give up on forging bilateral agreements with each European state and instead agree to common EU guidelines in accordance with WTO rules. Under those rules, countries can only offer concessions that lower trade barriers below the WTO standard if the reduction covers “substantially all” commerce – not individual products and sectors. The average EU tariff on US imports is around 3%, while the US average duty is around 2.4%.

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Authored by Jim Jatras, op-ed via RT.com,

The expulsion of 60 Russian diplomats from the US, along with dozens of others from various other countries, should be a sobering moment for all of mankind. It’s a sign of how close to the brink of a major war the world is coming.

To start with, this current episode is not comparable to the 55 Soviets expelled by Ronald Reagan in 1986 or the 50 or so thrown out by George W. Bush in 2001. Those actions were directly related to spying activities – which all governments engage in, directed against their friends as well as enemies. The Russians do it, the Americans do it, everybody does it. There’s nothing remarkable about cutting the numbers down now and then, particularly after a major embarrassment like the 2001 Robert Hanssen scandal.

But these latest expulsions have nothing to do with how many of the Russians might be actual spies. Nor with the nonsensical accusations of Russian election interference to “sow discord” and “discredit democracy.”

In fact, they have almost nothing to do with the US State Department’s unsupported claim that “Russia used a military-grade nerve agent to attempt to murder a British citizen and his daughter in Salisbury.”  The absence of evidence that the Russians were behind the attack is no more relevant than repeated, equally evidence-free accusations of chemical weapons use by the Syrian government. Whatever happened to the Skripals and whoever is behind it, Salisbury is a mere pretext.

No, the real purpose is much simpler. Decrying the American action, Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov stated that he had told his US interlocutors that “the United States took a very bad step by cutting what very little still remains in terms of Russian-American relations.”

But severing the last vestiges of that relationship is what the expulsions are designed to do. Disrupting US-Russia ties isn’t a means to an end – it is the end.

For several years, many commentators and analysts have pondered whether the US and Russia are already in a new Cold War, and if so when things will get better. The crystal-ball gazing can now stop. The answers are all too clear.

Yes, we are in a new Cold War and have been for some time. Indeed, it is foolish to think that on the US side the first Cold War ever really stopped. As long as we had a puppet government in Moscow under Boris Yeltsin in the 1990s, we could do as we pleased. Plunder Russia’s resources with the assistance of corrupt oligarchs installed by Western “experts.” Expand NATO to the east after promising we wouldn’t. Bomb Serbia. Invade Iraq. Expand NATO some more. Stage regime change operations in the name of “democracy.” Declare that Ukraine and Georgia will be members of NATO.

As for the second question – no, things will not get better. Perhaps never.

What about President Donald J. Trump, the man who is supposed to be the Leader of the (anachronistically named) Free World? Hasn’t he repeatedly said he wants better relations with Russia?

The answer is supplied by the former State Department spokesman under the Obama administration, Admiral John Kirby, who said the expulsions were “… embraced by our European allies because they’ve been worried that with some of the things they’ve heard or haven’t heard from this president about Russian President Vladimir Putin means he might be soft on Moscow. But this tells them that the national security professionals they’ve been talking to behind closed doors really have held sway and the US policy is following what they have always promised, which is to crack down.”

Perhaps Kirby overstates how much some of our European satellites really want more confrontation with Moscow, but he’s absolutely right about the role of the “national security professionals” operating “behind closed doors.” Make no mistake, of all of Trump’s 2016 heresies against the bipartisan establishment, none was of more concern than what seems to be his sincere wish for a new détente with Moscow.

When all is said and done, there are lots of reasons the political class hates Trump. His views on immigration and trade are near the top of the list. But for the deep state and its mainstream media arm, demonizing Russia and President Vladimir Putin personally is a dangerous obsession – and Trump presented a threat. Hence the entire Russiagate/FISAgate hysteria launched by the Steele dossier, an effort that incidentally has British (particularly MI6) fingerprints all over it. Its main goal was always to box Trump in and prevent him from pursuing any path other than the disastrous course laid out by Bill Clinton, George Bush, and Barack Obama.

Recently, one prominent Democratic senator expressed his concern over the appointment of the hawkish John Bolton as Trump’s new national security adviser, suggesting that Trump was “lining up his war cabinet” that might “blunder us into another terrible conflict.” But where was that senator and his leftish colleagues in the self-declared “#Resistance” to Trump when they insisted on new legislatively mandated sanctions, demanded we send lethal weapons to Ukraine, called for bombing Syria, and generally accused Trump of being a traitor in collusion with Putin?

Well, the Trump critics have got their wish. The Democratic left, along with their GOP “Never Trump” neoconservative allies, have won and Trump has lost. As far as foreign and security policy goes, Trump might as well not be president.

The result is a world that is one “Sarajevo” moment from a new (nuclear) 1914, but not because Trump is an unpredictable, irrational “madman” who needs to be restrained by the “adults in the room.” That notion that is exactly backwards, as evidenced by the fact that the same “professionals” were aghast at his agreement to meet North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. (In my estimation chances that the meeting will actually take place are only 50 percent and falling fast with Bolton’s appointment. Look for a “provocation” by Pyongyang that will scotch the summit. Or if the meeting does take place, look for Trump to be loaded up by his team with non-negotiable demands that will guarantee failure.)

Moscow will now consider its response to the expulsions of its diplomats, but it is in a no-win situation. If, based on past practice, the Russians respond with “proportionate” restraint so as not to permanently alienate their Western so-called “partners,” they can be sure of more of the same – and worse. On the other hand, if they hit back asymmetrically and hard – for example cancelling overflight rights of flag carriers of sanctioning states – the howls of Russian “rogue behavior” will intensify, leading to yet more and harsher sanctions, such as SWIFT cutoff. Look for a stepped-up boycott campaign against the 2018 World Cup as well as stronger calls to neutralize Moscow’s veto in the UN Security Council. Or another chemical weapons false flag in Syria. Or a possible “Krajina scenario”launched by Kiev against Donbass – in the expectation that Putin will step aside the way that Slobodan Milosevic did.

Those behind this global campaign think we can treat Russia as though it were a minor power of the magnitude of Serbia, Iraq, Libya, or Syria, or even Iran. They think if we just keep pushing, pushing, pushing, either the Russians will collapse or back down. They can see no other acceptable outcome than removing Putin and returning Russia to the condition of a Yeltsin-era vassal state – a term Putin used in his interview with Oliver Stone – or, better yet, its territorial breakup along the lines suggested by the late Zbigniew Brzezinski.

Things are going to get worse. Maybe a lot worse.  

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For most of civilized history, life expectancy fluctuated in the 30 to 40 year range.

Child mortality was all too common, and even for those that made it to adulthood, a long and healthy life was anything but guaranteed. Sanitation was poor, disease was rampant, and many medical practices were based primarily on superstition or guesswork.

But, as Visual Cpitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes, by the 20th century, an explosion in new technologies, treatments, and other science-backed practices helped to increase global life expectancy at an unprecedented rate.

From 1900 to 2015, global life expectancy more than doubled, shooting well past the 70 year mark.

IMPORTANT BREAKTHROUGHS

What were the major innovations that made the last century so very fruitful in saving lives?

Today’s infographic from AperionCare highlights the top 50 breakthroughs, ranging from pasteurization to the bifurcated needle, that have helped propel global life expectancy upwards.

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