CENTCOM Commander Admits Failure In Syria Strategy”

Authored by Geoffrey Aronson via The American Conservative blog,

But Washington will continue to blunder into confrontations in the Middle East without a comprehensive strategy

Appearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee this month, CENTCOM commander General Joseph L. Votel set about talking straight on Syria. Votel, in a colloquy with Senator Lindsey Graham that was refreshing for its brevity and candor, acknowledged that the principal ambition of U.S. policy towards Syria—the removal of President Bashar al Assad at the behest of a motley assortment of Islamist and reformist oppositionists—has failed.

An hour into Votel’s testimony, Graham got to the point:

Graham: “Who is winning in Syria?”

Votel:  “ …It would seem that the regime is ascendant.”

Graham: “Do you see any likelihood that the [opposition] forces…can topple Assad in the next year?”

Votel: “That’s not my assessment.”

Graham: “Is it too strong a statement to say that with Russia’s and Iran’s help Assad has won the civil war?”

Votel: “I do not think that is too strong of a statement. They have provided him the wherewithal to be ascendant.”

Graham: “Is it still our policy that Assad must go?”

Votel: “I don’t know that that’s our particular policy at this particular point.”

Graham: “Thank you for your clarity and honesty; and it is not your mission in Syria to deal with the Iranian, Assad, Russia problem.”

Votel: “That’s correct senator.”

Graham and Votel are to be commended for their no-nonsense effort to inform Americans about Washington’s failure to achieve the strategic objectives underlying the U.S. engagement in Syria these many years. How many remember that the demand for Assad’s departure announced by President Barack Obama in August 2011 sparked a steady, incremental increase in U.S. support for and involvement in the civil war that persists to this day?

But in 2013, ISIS, which threatened to topple the regime in Baghdad, replaced Assad as the enemy du jour. With critical support from newfound Kurdish allies, Washington’s war against ISIS in both Syria and Iraq, has, at least for the moment, been all but won.

Kurdish-led forces control almost a quarter of Syria, while Washington can justly celebrate its military victory. But this achievement, which itself is now threatening to unravel, mistakes a tactical for a strategic success. As it now stands, this military triumph is almost beside the original point, which was regime change, lest one forget.

Indeed, in the next stage of the war over control of the Kurdish zone, our Kurdish allies are abandoning Washington’s fight against ISIS in places like Deir al Zur and are making common cause with Assad to defend Kurdish parts of Syria against Turkey. We have just witnessed their failed campaign in Afrin to repel Turkish forces and agreeable remnants of the inaptly named Free Syrian Army, the former object of Washington’s anti-Assad largesse. Faced with the embarrassing contradiction that the U.S. is enabling a military campaign waged by Kurds, joined at the hip with Turkey’s arch foe the PKK and allies of convenience with Damascus, against its NATO ally Turkey, now in command of the freedom fighters of the FSA, Washington can only stutter.

Votel asserted that Russia’s role in Syria is not his problem. Yet even as Washington pivots away from post-ISIS Syria, the first hot military confrontation between the U.S. and Russia since World War II—for control of oil installations near Deir al-Zour—will be the latest attempt to hit the moving target that is U.S. policy in Syria.

On February 8, Kurdish defenders, with the regime’s support, left Deir al-Zour for the battlefront against Turkey. Damascus may well have made a deal with the Kurds to provide safe passage in return for enabling the regime to take possession of the area’s oil installations.

In any case Washington was having none of it. Close to 200 Russian contractors—aka mercenaries—were killed in airstrikes that included B-52 bombers based in Qatar, a tally that suggests a lopsided blow-out that aimed to send a clear “HANDS OFF” signal to any party attempting to undermine the U.S. effort east of the Euphrates.

The loss of the currently inoperative “Conoco” oil installation to Assad would undermine the latest chapter in Washington’s policy merry-go-round, which is to prevent the regime’s restoration of sovereign control of territory and resources in a battle that Votel acknowledged the regime and its allies have all but won.

Votel in his prepared testimony explained that “the intervention of the Coalition and regional powers in the Syrian conflict has blocked Assad’s ability to recapture major portions of northern Syria, and entrenched opposition fighters and VEOs [Very Extreme Organizations] across Syria continue to challenge regime control.”

The Trump administration is now basing its post-Assad policy on creating an economically viable enclave in Syria’s east – now suitably democratic of course. Votel however, as he admitted on the Hill, had yet to receive the memo outlining the new military mission to confront a resurgent regime and its Iranian and Russian paymasters.

The lack of a clear strategy to achieve well-defined objectives has never been a constraint on Washington’s response to opportunities or challenges produced by the war. Washington, in an unintended show of bipartisan unity, has consistently misapprehended America’s power to achieve regime change, the vitality of the Assad system, the viability of a domestic opposition, and the prospects of Russian intervention.

Have the myriad assumptions and assessments that informed the original (failed) policy been reconsidered and changed to reflect lessons learned? The answer, sad to say, is no.

Like the lobster in the pot of steadily heating water, the U.S. is being cooked in Syria – moving along a ladder of escalation against a changing array of forces and objectives – almost without realizing it.

And now, this lobster is all but cooked.

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Think It Can’t Happen Here? Austin Bomber’s Capture Exposes Depth Of US Surveillance State

Authored by Jeremiah Johnson via SHTFplan.com,

Many have argued that there is neither a surveillance state, nor a concerted effort to disarm the public door-to-door, house by house, etc. Some of these are far-leftists, masquerading as conservatives….. trying to appear “skeptically cynical.”

We’ll “game” the thought, to bring everyone back from opacity to transparency.

  1. The Communists, Marxists, Leftists, Progressives, Liberals, Democrats, and their ilk deliberately try to disguise the true objectives as outlined in the Planks of the Communist Party…passing themselves off as “middle-ground” in their stances.

  2. By denigrating the concept of an imminent surveillance state and ridiculing it, they draw conservatives who are still undecided (“fringe elements”) out of being proponents of the idea…further weakening and obfuscating people’s awareness.

  3. The movement of the groups mentioned never ceases: It hasn’t ceased with the fall of the Berlin Wall and subsequent reunification of Germany in 1990, nor the fall of the Soviet Union…more a “restructuring” than a fall…in 1992. The Communists are alive and well, operating within the United States at the lowest levels of society, and at the highest levels of government. We’ll stay with “Communists” as the label, as they are the end-state and will purge all the others who aren’t in complete lock step with them. They are Communists.

That being mentioned, as they craft their narratives and lie openly upon the television, radio, and within the newspapers, there is a subtle, devious operation going on right before your eyes:

The emplacement of a complete surveillance state of cameras and listening devices, all a part of the “wondrous internet of things.”

For that last paraphrase, thank David Petraeus… former head of the CIA (in name only) yet without the technical alacrity to avoid the very thing he lauded… and hence, his downfall via Paula Bridewell. Thanks, Dave, for your erstwhile contribution to crafting the surveillance state. Dave serves as the prime example: no matter how much of a “big hitter” toward the NWO (New World Order) a globalist or establishmentarian one is, they are always expendable.

The surveillance state has just been proven with the recent string of bombings in Austin, Texas where the protagonist blew himself up when he was tailed and cornered. This article was released by AP, written by Paul J. Weber on 3/22/18, and it seems to have escaped much notice. I am providing an excerpt that is almost the full article. When you read it, you will see why it is so important. Here it is:

How Police Finally Found the Austin Bomber

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — The suspected Austin bomber is dead after terrorizing Texas’ capital city for three weeks. And in the end the manhunt wasn’t cracked by hundreds of phoned-in tips, the big pot of reward money or police pleading to the bomber through TV.

One of the largest bombing investigations in the U.S. since the Boston Marathon attacks in 2013 came to an intense close early Wednesday when authorities say they moved in on Mark Anthony Conditt at an interstate hotel. Austin Police Chief Brian Manley said Conditt blew himself up after running his sport utility vehicle into a ditch.

Here is what’s known about how authorities finally zeroed in on the suspected bomber after 19 days, two dead victims and more than 1,000 calls of suspicious packages around the city:

___

GETTING THE BOMBER ON CAMERA

Conditt had been careful to avoid cameras before entering a FedEx store in southwest Austin this week disguised in a blond wig and gloves, said U.S. House Homeland Security chairman Michael McCaul. The Austin congressman had been briefed by police, the FBI and the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.

McCaul said going into the store was Conditt’s “fatal mistake.” He said authorities previously had leads on a red truck and that the surveillance video from the FedEx store — where Conditt is believed to have dropped off an explosive package destined for an Austin address — allowed investigators to identify him and the truck.

Said Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, “I’m not sure how much they narrowed him down to an exact person of who he was before he went into that FedEx store.”

___

TRACKING THE CELLPHONE

At the FedEx store, McCaul said investigators got from surveillance the truck license plate that linked the vehicle to Conditt, which in turn gave authorities a cellphone number they could track. McCaul said Conditt had powered down his phone for “quite some time” but that police closed in when he switched it back on.

“He turned it on, it pinged, and then the chased ensued,” McCaul said.

Abbott said police were able to closely monitor Conditt and his movements for about 24 hours before his death. The governor said the phone number was used to tie Conditt to bombing sites around Austin.

“The suspect’s cellphone number showed up at each of the bombing sites as well as some key locations that helped them connect him to the crime,” Abbott said.

___

BUYING BOMB-MAKING MATERIALS

Authorities say they also tracked down Conditt, a 23-year-old unemployed college dropout, through witness accounts and other purchases, including at a Home Depot where McCaul said the suspect bought nails and other bomb-making materials.

Abbott said Conditt’s purchases at the Home Depot also included five “CHILDREN AT PLAY” signs, one of which was used to rig a tripwire that was set off by two men Sunday in a southwest Austin neighborhood. One of them was walking and the other was riding a bike.

William Grote told The Associated Press that his grandson was one of the victims and had nails embedded in his legs from Sunday’s explosion.

The batteries to power the bomb were purchased through the internet, McCaul said.

___

STILL PUTTING TOGETHER A PROFILE

The initial bomber profile sketched out by FBI behavioral scientists was that he was most likely a white male, McCaul said. And while that part was right, the congressman said, a full psychological profile won’t come together until investigators have time to comb through Conditt’s writings and social media posts.

Conditt’s motive is not clear. But on Wednesday, police discovered a 25-minute video recording on a cellphone found with Conditt, which Manley said he considers a “confession” to the bombings. Manley said it described the differences among the bombs in great detail.”

Obviously, someone made a big mistake in revealing this information to the stultified, oblivious public… that self-same public of “We the People” that has the right to know, and yet doesn’t understand what is happening. 

Worse: The public doesn’t care what’s happening.

Let’s summarize what these main points mean, for those of you who docare:

  1. The cellular telephone is nothing more than a tracking device…as mentioned, it “pings” its position and gives away the location of the owner…along with all of his vital information in the file… every four seconds.

  2. The cell phone’s location is tied into the location of every camera, public and private that has a tie-in to the CCTV system monitored by law enforcement in the fusion centers…from the Happy Burger parking lot cameras to the cameras mounted at the intersections in cities, towns, and suburbs. As the happy cell phone passes these locations, the movement is tracked in real time, and recorded.

  3. Granted, they had a suspect, but they can review all of the cameras at any business at any given time…to show what Joe the Plumber-turned-bomber may be purchasing at the friendly store…and they can tie that film in with real-time with the cell phone.

  4. The vehicle is also the “buddy” of the police and the surveillance establishment. They take pictures and film of the license plate, the car, and glimpses of Joe the Plumber driving it…corroborated by the happy, ever-pinging cellular telephone (the tracking device).

  5. All this data for everyone’s movements is recorded, catalogued, and stored…stored away for an indefinite period of time (forever) until the information is needed as evidence or in an investigation. Investigation!  Doesn’t that sound exciting?  Guess what?  Everyone is being investigated, and all of the data on everyone is kept.

  6. Purchases! Everybody has to buy things, stuff, etc.  Every time you pull up to the gas pump, the car is photographed.  The POS (point of sale) at the register tabulates and inventories everything, tying it in to the gas pump, with a picture of Joe and whatever form of fiat he used to pay for the gas and bag of chips.  Purchases track in real time, access whatever form of payment you use, tying you in with others…if you use your spouse’s credit card, for example.

  7. Cops have license plate/tag readers that can read hundreds of different plates, categorizing all of them in accordance with sensitive data that may have nothing to do with driving upon the roads or their record with the vehicle.

  8. Every Internet search, every purchase, every query, every e-mail is saved and read/tabulated into the overall matrix that assesses the potential for an individual to be “harmful” and stored…to be matched against the subject’s behavior and movements at a later date. Systems are already in place that analyze keystrokes for the comparison and narrowing down of who the typist is.

  9. Every library sign-out…film, music, or book…is saved and kept for future reference.

  10. Biometrics are making the “fingerprint” even more specific…with eye to eye distances, ear shapes, and gaits measured.  Any exposed portion of the skin, and the movement and function of the limbs is analyzed and recorded.

  11. Every piece of mail is scanned to save sender and recipient’s addresses and (of course) purchases are recorded within the company and matched against what is sent out and to whom.

  12. Satellites can target and surveil in real time and tie in to all of the little devices just mentioned.

  13. Laptop computers can be traced in accordance with the purchaser’s information from the POS and onward…and the laptops record, photograph, and film as well as putting forth a “ping” of their own…especially when connected to the Internet. All laptop use is matched and corresponded to other places of business (their cameras, etc.)

  14. Association: when you’re on your laptop, and here come Smiling Sam and Brother Bob, each with pinging cell phones…letting the authorities know that in that moment of time (Whitney Houston’s “One Moment in Time”) Sam and Bob were right in front of you. Later they can haul both of them in to corroborate that you were on your laptop in front of HappyBurger at whatever date or time they have on record.

This excerpt shows that all of these items are in place. Yes, they are surveilling you…are watching all of us. The surveillance is not ubiquitous yet. Not yet. It will be, and soon. They utilized every feature mentioned above to find the bomber. Great. Society has triumphed, and the mad bomber has met his end.

But has society really triumphed? That article gives you insight into how the cage is almost completed…the construction is just about finished. What requires further thought is what they will do with this surveillance once it is in place and ubiquitous. Just a few further thoughts for your consideration. You may want to watch what you place into your e-mails and comments. There are techies in the Puzzle Palace and at Ft. Meade whose function is identifying the commenters.

Don’t place anything on the Internet that can come back and bite you later. The most effective means of exchange are not on the Internet when it comes to information. Blogs, writers, and commenters have already been “marginalized” and their effectiveness diminished because it is an open source. Your true effectiveness in getting things done is at the “grass roots” level…locally, in small groups for discussion. Your “tool of transmission” is a manual typewriter.  Need copies?  Get back to Carbon paper. There won’t be a recording of what you copied at your FriendlyCopy center…the one with your information in real-time, right under the eye of the happy surveillance camera in the corner.

The one that superficially is to make sure you don’t take more than 1 or 2 paper clips…but manages to send the fusion centers every bit of data they need to match up their culprit (the copier) to the scene of the crime. They’ll also match up his credit card at the register, tally up his total purchases and copies over a period of time, and get plenty of information as it films him walking through the store and out the door.

Bottom line: we’re all “guilty” according to laws they haven’t even written yet. It is all about building a case against the average citizen. If you’re not the wolves, then you’re one of the cattle, in their eyes.

It will become worse. Much, much worse. If you doubt it and do not take necessary precautions, you may find out it exists when they come knocking on the door. It may already be too late, and their song is “We’ve Only Just Begun,” by Karen Carpenter…. but not to smile. They’ve been doing that for years, as they have taken our taxes to craft the very cages that are almost completed. The next step? Not hard to figure out, and it has happened before…as history repeats itself. Think “Solzhenitsyn,” and think of tomorrow.

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California AG, Eric Holder To Sue Trump Administration Over Citizenship Question On 2020 Census

California’s Attorney General, Xavier Becerra (D) said a new question included on the 2020 census asking for citizenship status is illegal, and he will sue the Trump administration to remove it.

“We’re prepared to do what we must to protect California from a deficient Census. Including a citizenship question on the 2020 census is not just a bad idea — it is illegal,” said Becerra in a statement.

“Including a citizenship question on the 2020 census is not just a bad idea — it is illegal,” Becerra wrote in a Monday San Francisco Chronicle opinion piece along with California Secretary of State Alex Padilla.

“The size of your child’s kindergarten class. Homeland security funds for your community. Natural disaster preparation. Highway and mass transit resources. Health care and emergency room services. 

Vital services such as these would be jeopardized and our voice in government diminished if the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 count resulted in an undercount” -Xavier Becerra

In other words – the U.S. government shouldn’t be allowed to ask if U.S. residents are legal citizens, because it may lead to underreporting and therefore fewer benefits and Congressional representation would go to regions with high concentrations of illegal aliens

Becerra argues that the Constitution requires the government conduct an “actual enumeration” of the total population – which, the California AG argues, should be conducted regardless of citizenship. 

The census has a specific constitutional purpose: to provide an accurate count of all residents, which then allows for proper allotment of congressional representatives to the states. The Census Bureau has a long history of working to ensure the most accurate count of the U.S. population in a nonpartisan manner, based on scientific principles.

Separately, former Obama Attorney General Eric Holder announced that he is also filing a lawsuit to stop the citizenship question from being included in the 2020 census. 

“We will litigate to stop the Administration from moving forward with this irresponsible decision,” Holder said in a Tuesday morning statement. “The addition of a citizenship question to the census questionnaire is a direct attack on our representative democracy. This question will lower the response rate and undermine the accuracy of the count, leading to devastating, decade-long impacts on voting rights and the distribution of billions of dollars in federal funding. By asking this question, states will not have accurate representation and individuals in impacted communities will lose out on state and federal funding for health care, education, and infrastructure.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced the reinstatement of the citizenship question in a post to the department’s website (here). The question last appeared on the 1950 census.

As The Hill notes, the DOJ under Attorney General Jeff Sessions pushed for the inclusion of the question – arguing that it would allow Justice to better enforce the Voting Rights Act. 

The census question has led lawmakers and pundits alike to opine on the legality, morality and practicality of such a move: 

It will be interesting to see how this is somehow spun as a Russian trick by the usual suspects… 

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How To Think About The Americans’ Final Season: Podcast

Since 2013, FX’s The Americans has revisited 1980s America and Cold War politics with a depth and nuance usually reserved for PBS documentaries. The first season begins in the early Reagan years, when the Cold War seemed forever on the verge of escalating into nuclear war. The sixth and final season debuts on Wednesday, March 28.

The show follows the lives of Elizabeth and Philip Jennings, two Soviet sleeper agents whose cover is running a travel agency in the Northern Virginia suburbs near Washington, D.C. Their days are spent booking vacation packages and schlepping kids to school, and their nights are filled with deadly honeypot espionage setups, betrayals by and of close associates, and thefts of state secrets. Complicating matters is the presence of Stan Beeman, their neighbor who just happens to be an FBI agent working to infiltrate Soviet spy rings in America.

The Americans is at once deeply serious and darkly comic, a domestic drama that plays out against the backdrop of the 20th century’s twilight struggle. Gillespie recently sat down with Joe Weisberg, the show’s creator, and Joel Fields, an executive producer and one of its lead writers, to discuss the genesis and meaning of the series, their thoughts on the Cold War, how changing technology is leading to better television, and what we can expect from the series’ final season.

“This is a profoundly political show,” says Fields, but it’s not political necessarily in the sense of a lot of what we’ve been talking about, about which country is better, or how do the two systems compare. It’s political simply in terms of our perspective. It’s political in the sense that the two main characters…are driven by politics. Their motivation in life—not just in work, but their motivation in life—is ideological. They are political beings of a kind that you rarely see.

“They’ve come all the way across the world and started this whole family and done everything for political reasons. Their hearts and souls are political. So in the final season, when Gorbachev has now come to power and is starting to change their country in very profound ways, Philip and Elizabeth are going to react to it differently. And so, imagine how that’s going to impact their marriage. And that’s really what the final season is going to be about.”

Audio production by Ian Keyser.

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Video version producted and edited by Meredith Bragg. Cameras by Bragg, Jim Epstein, and Mark McDaniel. Go here to watch.

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The interview has been edited for clarity. Check all quotes against the audio for accuracy. For an audio version, subscribe to the Reason Podcast.

Nick Gillespie: Joe, you were actually in the CIA for a number of years, and you’ve said that the agency, of all things, is what got you started thinking about doing something about your time in the agency. What was going on there?

Joe Weisberg: One of the things that I sort of absorbed when I was there— I didn’t think I was going to ever write about spies, or anything like that, but I still absorbed a lot that came out later. So, I was very, I worked with a lot of people who were married and had families, and like me, were lying to the people around them. And I didn’t have kids, and I wasn’t married at the time, but colleagues of mine had to lie to their kids about what they did—couldn’t tell them they worked at the CIA, until a certain point that was known inside the agency as “the talk.”

When you sat down with your kids—and nobody told you what age to do it or anything like that, you had to determine for yourself when your kids were mature enough to keep it secret. And then you sat down, and you told them what you really did for a living. And if you thought your kids were maybe never mature enough for that, there were even occasionally some people who never told their kids.

But that idea, even when I was there, I thought that was like, pretty intense. And after I’d left the CIA and sort of was no longer a part of that culture, the further away I got, the… In a way… I don’t want to… It’s not just that it seemed odd to me, it started to seem really like the most emotional and dramatic thing. And when I was later going to write a series about spies, it seemed to me that was something that had never been explored, and something that could form almost a perfect dramatic spine for a television series.

Gillespie: And then you upped the ante by taking Russian spies and putting them here, and so they’re hiding from their kids. What was the starting point? Did you have a kind of goal in mind? And then, has that changed as the series has developed over the years?

Weisberg: What happened was, if you remember, a lot of Russian sleeper agents—or “Illegals,” they’re called—were arrested in 2010. And I was working on the science fiction show called Falling Skies, and I got a call from some of the producers of that show, and they said, “Why don’t you develop a series based on this thing that just happened?” And I said, “Well, I don’t know, things aren’t really that bad between Russia and America, I’m not sure that’s really a good idea, but let me think about a little bit.”

And I started wandering around the streets a little bit, and after a couple hours, I suddenly thought, “Oh, you just put it back in the Cold War,” and suddenly that’s a really good idea. And you make the KGB spies themselves the heroes, rather than the FBI or anything like that, and that’ll make it a very interesting twist. And you really center it on the marriage, about this couple, and about these things I was talking about, about the family lying to the kids, and suddenly you’ve got a very new, original show.

Gillespie: Setting it in the ’80s is a stroke of genius. You guys are both in your early 50s, so that’s a period that you know extremely well.

Weisberg: Right.

Gillespie: And we didn’t know it at the time—I’m in the same age range—we didn’t know at the time that it was the last decade of the Cold War. But what… I mean, Joel, what, you know, in the ’80s, what were you thinking? Did you care about the Cold War at that point? Or were you more into parachute pants and the band Living Colour, or something like that? And hair product?

Joel Fields: Boy, don’t ask my mom for the photos, but they do not involve parachute pants.

I remember really hoping that we didn’t all blow each other up. And it’s been hard to explain to some of the writers on the show, over the years, that there was a time when we really felt like we were on the verge of thermonuclear armageddon. And The Day After, remember, played a prominent role—

Gillespie: Right.

Fields: —in the show itself. Testament was a big movie at the time.

Gillespie: And The Day After was a TV movie about what happened if there was a kind of exchange of nuclear weapons, and then after that, there was a panel with, what, it was like Elie Wiesel and William F. Buckley, Jr., and people discussing what it would be like.

Fields: That’s right, it was a huge—

Gillespie: And Testament was similar.

Weisberg: Yeah.

Fields: And The Day After was a huge national event. It became part of our show, the family’s experiencing it.

Gillespie: Right.

Fields: I know for both of us, ’cause we’ve talked about it, it was a pivotal thing for us and for the nation. And you ask, “What was it like, to be young at that time, that looming sense of the Cold War as a real threat?” Boy, it was a powerful part of what formed you.

Gillespie: One of the things that’s fantastic about this show is that it is, it’s not by any stretch a booster, you know. It’s not some kind of vapid boosterism of, like, “America, fuck yeah.” But it’s Reagan… I mean, after the ’70s, there was a palpable sense that America was in decline. The Soviets in ’79 invaded Afghanistan, they seemed to be on the march.

Reagan took office and was kind of largely seen as a madman who was capable of discussing limited nuclear war in Europe and whatnot. And his first few months, or year really, in office was kind of a disaster. He got a lot of things done, but the economy was still tanking. But then, very quickly, America was back.

So, you know, what were the tensions on the Soviet side? Obviously, by the end of the decade, everything had gone to hell for them, but what were the ’80s like for Soviet people?

Weisberg: Well, I mean, that was an incredible decade for them. You know, in the early ’80s, up through when Gorbachev came to power in ’80, there was a kind of stasis, and a kind of economic malaise and decline, but I don’t think we were aware of it to that much of a degree. We still felt incredibly threatened by them, as they went through the final years of Brezhnev and Andropov and Chernenko. We weren’t seeing them as in decline at all, and I think it’s hard to say what their own sense of themselves was.

You know, I think they had to be on some level aware that their economy was continuing to go down, or not do very well, but they were a superpower, and they were aware of it. And they had nuclear weapons, they could challenge the United States. But obviously, something happened, they had some level of awareness, because in 1985, they knew they needed to bring in a younger generation of leader, and not just that, but one who was willing to start embarking on some kind of change.

Gillespie: You went into the CIA because you felt that we were in a kind of twilight struggle and we needed to win, and you saw things in very binary terms. The show certainly doesn’t reflect that kind of moral certitude. What changed?

Weisberg: I had a very black-and-white vision of things. I saw the Soviet Union as an evil empire. I was a Cold Warrior. I loved Ronald Reagan’s views on foreign policy. When he talked about an evil empire, that resonated with me. I thought that’s what it was.

And I started to, particularly after I left the CIA, I started to open up. I think first as a person in general, as a human being I started to open up. And I think that allowed me to open up more politically, and stop seeing… Once I stopped seeing the whole universe in black-and-white terms, I was able to see the world of politics in less black-and-white terms, too.

And then, a couple of things happened at once. One, I was able to go back and revisit all the things I’d seen and studied and learned about the Soviet Union again, and start to see them differently. And then, two, I started to learn new things about the Soviet Union, and see them now with a new open mind. Everything started to look differently.

So instead of seeing this sort of simplistic evil-empire totalitarian society where everybody was repressed and the Communist Party, the government, were just these terrible people and everybody there suffered, I started to see a real society. A real place with real complexity, and many layers of society, with many people who felt many different ways and had many different experiences, just like, really, any large society. Like our society as well. And so, I just started to not have those simplistic views anymore.

Gillespie: It’s a weird irony of kind of 1980s discourse, conservative discourse, certainly, that the American government was always inefficient and kind of stupid, Reagan famously said, “Government isn’t the solution, government is the problem.” But then, when we talked about the Soviet Union, it was a well-oiled machine, right?

Fields: Right.

Gillespie: Nothing ever went wrong, and everything happened according to what they planned.

Fields: Yeah.

Gillespie: In the ’80s, certainly in the United States, there was a very clear para— Or, not a parallelism, but, anti-communists were… If you said anything that equated the United States with the Soviets, you were morally bankrupt, you were a relativist, you know, to make any kind of similarities.

The series, though, and one of the things that’s rich about it, is that there’s all of these parallels. You know, obviously, Soviet spies, FBI counterintelligence people. But even the opening of the show begins with kind of scenes from a Soviet childhood and an American childhood. I mean, do you see the systems as kind of morally equal?

Weisberg: That’s a great question.

Fields: Yeah. For me, no. It’s not at all about moral equivalence. It’s about human equivalence. And I think that’s what… I’d be interested to see whether Joe feels the same way, after all these years of working together, ’cause nobody’s ever quite asked that question.

But to me, it’s actually really important not to get, not to confuse human equivalence with moral equivalence. There are better and worse ways for human beings to experience the world, and there are better and worse systems. And we can argue about those, and test those, and see how they function in the world, and there are different kinds of people, but all people are human. And I think that’s what’s been exciting about, to explore in the show.

Everybody who has a family, has a family. Everybody who’s in a marriage struggles with marriage, and it may be in their own individual ways, but there’s a universality to the human experience. Whether or not you’re a deep-cover Soviet agent, or an American counterintelligence officer, those two characters, they should be the most different, but at their core, they’re still human, and exploring that is at the heart of things for us.

Gillespie: Yeah, and I mean, I think this is something that, now that the ’80s and the Cold War are past a little bit, we can actually explore that, rather than worrying that we’re getting a little bit too soft on communism. To go to your point, Joel, of, there are better and worse ways. And I’m sure we all agree that, broadly speaking, the American way was superior, because one of the reasons is, it allowed people to become more human, or to kind of express their humanity more than a more rigid Soviet system. But part of what the show seems to be about is that Philip and some of the other characters on the Soviet side are able to express themselves more freely, in a kind of modern consumer economy.

Weisberg: It’s a very complicated question. You know, there are all sorts of people here who express themselves freely, and all sorts of people who don’t. Certainly, that society put a lot of restrictions on how people express themselves, but there were all kinds of ways that people expressed themselves that we probably didn’t quite understand, or didn’t quite see, that did happen in that society, too.

But probably, what is unquestionable is that the ability to be free and creative in the economic sphere, and in the scientific sphere, things like that, allows a capitalist economy to thrive in ways that their economy didn’t allow.

Gillespie: So, well—

Fields: But I’ll tell you, in terms of getting to a better place for the human condition, the story is still being written, as we all know. We read a really interesting piece of research that people were having more, better sex in East Germany than the next generation did, after the wall fell. And they interviewed some people, and one of the interviews said, “You know, we couldn’t get good jobs. We didn’t have much. But now my daughter has all of these professional opportunities, and she’s a vice president of the company, and she comes home and she’s exhausted. And they have less sex, she and her husband have a worse sex life than I had under the East German jackboot.” So, you know, we’re all still figuring these things out.

Gillespie: Yeah.

Fields: I don’t think, unfortunately, we haven’t reached nirvana yet.

Gillespie: For sure. Do you think, though, I guess in the long run, that the Soviet Union collapse— Did it collapse, ultimately, because it couldn’t produce enough blue jeans and cigarettes for people? Did it collapse because it bankrupted itself, trying to keep up with Reagan defense initiatives? I mean, these are two counternarratives, and it seems…

I mean, the show is certainly not a political treatise in any way. It’s a great drama because it is moving out from individuals and the way they interact. But, you know, why did the Soviet Union collapse, then?

Fields: I mean, you get me started on this, I’ll go for an hour. But I’ll give you the short version: that I don’t think it was about trying to keep up with Reagan’s defense initiatives and the economic pressure from the West. I don’t think there’s any real evidence to support that, although a lot of Americans do think that, and a lot of—

Gillespie: Well, it’s flattering to us, to think that way.

Weisberg: It’s flattering to us, right, and a lot of people want to, in a way, think that we drove that to happen, and that Reagan’s pol— And, by the way, it wasn’t just the defense initiatives. You know, Reagan drove a lot of covert action specifically designed, with the specific plan, to bring down the Soviet Union.

But I don’t see any convincing evidence that any of that really was responsible for it, whereas Gorbachev coming to power and making all these changes, with glasnost and perestroika, to open things up and change the economy, seems fairly… I mean, there’s a clear story you can see taking place there, where society started to open up, people started to talk about all the problems.

It opened up both in Eastern Europe and through all the non-Russian republics for the nationalist sentiments started to open up, and those places just started to break away and break free. And for the economic sphere, as it tried to reform itself, to start to break apart and crumble as it tried to reform itself, instead. And you can just see how that kind of unfolded and the country started to break apart. So.

Fields: Here’s another theory I like. Someone once said that it wasn’t Ronald Reagan and nuclear weapons that brought down the Soviet Union, it was Aaron Spelling and the VCR.

Gillespie: Mm-hmm [affirmative].

Fields: And just the fact that Dynasty became available, and those tapes could be shuffled around from house to house. Once you start looking at that, it’s a little harder to support your Soviet lifestyle.

Gillespie: Let’s talk a little bit about the marriage that’s at the center of the show. I mean, one of the things that’s really delightful is that these are spies who are like, “Who’s got the kids tonight? Because I’ve got to go and fuck some guy to get information and then kill him, but Paige has to be at a band practice at a certain time.” Where does that come from, and how do you come up with scenarios for that?

Weisberg: We really asked ourselves a lot of questions about, “If this were really happening, what would it feel like? What problems would they face? Which situations would they be in?” And then just, you know, along with other writers, tried to just run the scenarios. It’s really just what we came up with.

There’s a great, the head KGB archivist, a guy named Mitrokhin, stole the entire archives of the KGB and brought them over to the West. So we had a really good resource material that told us about a lot of things that Illegals actually did. So we were able to take certain things, like, for example, the marriage to Martha was built on an actual story of how KGB Illegals did—not often, but a couple of times, very occasionally—did marry women in order to get intelligence.

So we had things like that that we could build on. But we’d take things like that, and say, “Well, what would happen next? What would happen next?” And made that stuff up. But it felt real to us.

Gillespie: Did, you know, on some level, the kind of long-term… I don’t want to say it’s a plot arc, it’s kind of a moral arc of the show, and this gets to some of the points you were making. It’s really about the individuals being committed to one another, rather than ideological promises. How does that inform the final season of the show?

I don’t think this is giving anything away to say that, at the opening of the season, Philip is kind of done with spy work. His wife is not. There are also larger complications that come from Gorbachev and Reagan actually getting together to talk about limiting nuclear weapons and whatnot.

But how does that commitment to an individual rather than an ideology inform the final season?

Weisberg: We ask that question specifically in terms of the characters in our show and their ideologies. But we also like to kind of step back, and just look at it generally, in terms of what marriages are like. The truth is, we’re all spies in our own lives.

We all have our secret inner lives, and even those of us who try to share as much as possible with our spouses have a part of us that we don’t know how to express, or that gets repressed because we’re expressing so much, and there’s a part we have to hold back. So we all struggle with questions of our true identity, our identity with our loved ones, and our public personas. And that just gets magnified a billionfold when you’re a deep-cover spy, because it’s actualized.

So in this final season, that all comes to a head for the characters, who have to deal with it in their careers as spies, challenging their loyalty to their family but also testing it against their loyalty to one another in their marriage, and their loyalty to their country, and their core idealistic beliefs.

Fields: I’ll just add, in a way, this is a profoundly political show, but it’s not political necessarily in the sense of a lot of what we’ve been talking about, about which country is better, or how do the two systems compare. It’s political simply in terms of our perspective. It’s political in the sense that the two main characters, Philip and Elizabeth, are driven by politics. Their motivation in life—not just in work, but their motivation in life—is ideological. They are political beings of a kind that you rarely see.

They’ve come all the way across the world and started this whole family and done everything for political reasons. Their hearts and souls are political. So in the final season, when Gorbachev has now come to power and is starting to change their country in very profound ways, Philip and Elizabeth are going to react to it differently.

And so, imagine how that’s going to impact their marriage. And that’s really what the final season is going to be about.

Gillespie: What do you think explains the appeal of the show? I mean, the show is airing now, at a time when the American economy is kind of messed up. We have a threat from Russia, as well as communist China. You know, I mean, there’s a lot. We have a madman in the White House, etc. What do you think is appealing about this show? What does it allow us to do that less successful shows don’t?

Fields: When you put it that way, it just puts me into a panic. And I don’t want to watch.

Weisberg: I thought the economy was good, is the economy messed up?

Fields: Apparently, there’s a madman in the White House. We’ve been too busy making the show.

Gillespie: Yeah, yeah.

Fields: Someone get us a paper, or an internet connection.

You know, I think, clearly, there’s all of that, everything that you said. At the end of the day, for us, it’s the human story, and the marriage story, and the family story.

We had a great moment in season one, where we sent one of our rough cuts in, I forget which episode—Philip and Elizabeth had just done something horrible, honeytrap, murder, something terrible. And they had this argument about how it went. And we get a call from the network executive, who gave us his reaction to the episode.

And he said, “You’re going to get a call later with all of our notes, and thoughts, and comments, but I just wanted to tell you: I saw that episode, and I thought, ‘That’s exactly the fight I had with my wife last night.'” And we thought, “OK, now we’re cooking with gas. Because if we can take this crazy spy story and make it about the universals of marriage, then the show just might be able to work.”

Gillespie: We’ve talked about the content of the show, let’s talk about the distribution and the possibilities. This is a show that would not have been possible 15 years ago, 20 years ago. You’re on FX, which is putting out cutting-edge material on basic cable, as opposed to something like HBO. How have you benefited from creative freedom in order to tell these types of stories?

Weisberg: Just start to finish. I mean, what you’re saying, first of all, is, this show wouldn’t have been on the air, really, at any other time. And we were able to go on the air, we were able to stay on the air. You know, at the beginning, there was pretty, not the highest-rated show, at the beginning. And to some degree, it was never the highest-rated show. But really, with just critical acclaim, and then a kind of growing audience, we were able to have a full run of six seasons.

And also just the support from the network, telling us: “Do whatever you want to do. Just make it a great show. Don’t stress out. Don’t worry about the numbers.” And that, it’s hard to even express, as writers, the freedom you get from that. The feeling that instead of sitting there panicking about, “We have to do this this episode, or this this season, to try and draw in more viewers.” All we had to do was try to make it good. And that was, by the way, John Landgraf said that to us. He said, “Don’t worry about anything, just make it good, and then that’s where success will lie.”

Fields: I tell a story about John Landgraf, actually—

Gillespie: And explain who he is.

Fields: John Landgraf is the chairman, guru, head of everything at FX.

Weisberg: That’s his title.

Fields: That’s his title. I’m going to tell you a story about John Landgraf, who’s the head of FX, and something that happened in-between season one and season two. Because you asked what it’s like with all this creative freedom, and we do have a great amount of creative freedom, but I would put it differently. I’d say we have creative support, that support comes with freedom.

And it almost became a joke with us, that all the notes, calls would start and finish with either John, or whoever was giving notes, they would start and finish with them saying, “It’s your show, these are our comments, take them for what you want, but you make the choices you want to make.”

So we had that freedom, but the freedom comes with an incredible dramaturgical support from them. Incredible insight. And they all spend a lot of time talking and thinking about the show from a perspective that we can’t have. They’re really our first audience, and that’s so valuable.

Between seasons one and season two—remember, as you said, we had a wonderful critical response to season one, but not the greatest of ratings—and we had this talk with John Landgraf as we were figuring out where we wanted to go in season two. And he said that he’d given the show a lot of thought. And that means a lot, ’cause John gives everything a lot of thought, but when he says he’s given it a lot of thought, it’s a lot of thought.

And remember, he said, “I’ve tried to think about things you guys could do, or that we could do for the show, that would boost the ratings. But I can’t come up with any ideas that won’t ruin your show, and we don’t want to do that. So let’s just keep making it good.” And that was really liberating.

And so, that’s… Again, it’s not just freedom, it’s support that we had from the network. A lot of insight along the way, from the beginning, really through the final episode. But also the wisdom to let the show be what it wants to be.

Gillespie: Let me ask you, though, because you, more than Joe, have a background in TV, and you’ve been in it for what, 25 years? Something like that?

Fields: Well, my post-CIA cover runs—

Weisberg: Your effort to get out of that question is failing, by the way.

Gillespie: Is it easier—and it’s never easy to make a good show, much less a great show—but do you feel like the medium has really matured in your lifetime? When you go back and look at stuff, you know, I’m thinking of 25 years ago, I was interviewing Alf as an entertainment reporter.

Fields: Right.

Weisberg: Hey, that was a great show.

Gillespie: And that’s not a bad show, but like—

Weisberg: No.

Fields: We like Alf.

Weisberg: That was really funny.

Gillespie: But it’s not as good as what we’ve got now, is it?

Fields: Well, there’s… Look, there’s been a real cycle. First of all, it’s easy to forget all the great shows that came before. I mean, we’re here on the shoulders of Hill Street Blues and NYPD Blue. Norman Lear made some of the greatest comedies ever made.

There was great TV. And none of this would be possible without it. That said, gosh, when I think about all the years that I’ve made TV, what cycles I’ve been through. When I started, I started in TV movies, because that was the place you could do really exciting work. That’s where The Day After had been made, and that’s where The Burning Bed had been made. And you could tackle important contemporary issues. You could tackle important dramatic issues. You could do romantic comedy. You could do a thriller.

And I had a great time in that world, and then it slowly kind of changed and I cycled into the TV series world. But I never could imagine that, where the TV series world was headed was this incredible world of drama. When I pivoted to TV series, I hoped to work on good ones, but the really great dramas were being made in feature films.

And today, we’re very lucky. Suddenly, we found ourselves in this place where, when we started making The Americans, we were trying to figure out what the stories were, week-to-week. And by the time we got to the second year, we found ourselves letting go of the week-to-week storytelling and just telling this long story following the drama of these characters. And there was this total liberation that came with where we happened to find ourselves, in the landscape of TV. So, it’s been a pretty great journey.

Gillespie: Do you think that, in a broader sense, the type of show that you’re talking about here, which is this incredibly rich and complex, multilayered story that unfolds over years—is that kind of serial TV playing the role that the novel might have in 19th-century Europe and America? You know, this thick slice of a whole society, in the way that it fits together. And if that’s true, why are we watching now, rather than reading? And what is gained, and what is lost in that transition?

Weisberg: That’s interesting. I mean, this show does feel novelistic, to me at least. Specifically in the sense that it doesn’t feel… It feels leisurely in its pacing, it doesn’t feel like it has to get anywhere. It doesn’t… You know, some novels have cliffhangers, and some don’t, but this one doesn’t feel like it has to. Every season doesn’t have to end in a certain place. It just sort of…

In particular, it’s character-based, and it just goes on telling the lives of these characters, and it could end anywhere. Now by the way, again, all novels aren’t that way, but some certainly are. And this show has always felt that, from the beginning.

But why there’s a move to that, or why that’s becoming such a popular form of storytelling right now, I don’t know. I can only tell you that I’ve found something very interesting for myself, which is: I’ve always been a big reader, and I find myself now going back and forth in phases. I find myself having a heavy TV phase, where I’ll watch a lot of serialized TV, and then I’ll stop watching TV and start reading books again. And then I’ll go back to TV, and back to books. And I can’t figure out what any of it means.

Fields: I think one reason for that may be technological. Fifteen years ago, you couldn’t do that. The option wasn’t there, of getting into something and just binging it. You know, I think… It’s actually changed the process for us in a different way. Which is: When we make the show, there’s less of a creative feeling that it has to achieve something in a particularly urgent way that’s going to get everybody to scramble to watch the next episode. But that we can tell the story that feels right to us, and if somebody finds the show in two years, or in five years, or in 10 years, it’s going to be there. And knowing that is very reassuring, and I think it does impact the storytelling a bit.

Fields: A related thing is that we’re not really under pressure to bring the episodes in at a particular length. We can pretty much go as long as we want on any episode, and that is fantastic. That really allows us to just do what we want in episodes, and it’s great.

Gillespie: As a kind of final question, you have created this incredible world. And you know, it’s a world that people can recognize, because we kind of lived in it. But it’s a fictional universe that is, you’ve mapped in incredible detail and nuance and sophistication, and it’s kind of a great place to hang out. It’s true, you know, sometimes, you want to be like, “OK, I’ve got to go step outside and take a deep breath or snort some cocaine and clear my head,” but… What is it like to walk away from it? I mean, at the end of this. It is hard to say, “OK, we’re shutting the door here”?

Weisberg: It’s horrible. We’re like, suffering with that, right now we’re suffering with it. I mean, just yesterday, we watched them filming literally the last scene of the show, except we’re still filming for two more weeks. ‘Cause you know, we don’t shoot the scenes in order. So now, even that is so weird, and so confusing. And in a couple weeks, that world is closing its doors. I’m dying, I…

Fields: Yeah, it’s tough, and emotional. Literally across the street, they’re tearing down our sets right now, as we speak. And it’s been, it’s been such a wonderful and gratifying experience, been a gratifying experience creatively, and personally. And I’m just in denial, that it’s an end. I’m just going to hang onto denial as long as possible, and keep making the show, until it runs out.

Gillespie: So you’ll have nostalgia for making The Americans.

Weisberg: Oh, yes. We will definitely have nostalgia for making Americans. Hey, maybe our next show will be about making The Americans. You think that’s kind of an universal nostalgic thing?

Fields: I’m in.

Weisberg: OK, done.

Gillespie: Well, we’ll leave it there. We’ve been talking with Joel Fields, and Joe Weisberg, the creators, showrunners, of The Americans, whose final season starts at the end of March on FX network. Guys, thanks for talking.

Weisberg: Pleasure, thank you.

Fields: Thank you so much. It was fun.

Gillespie: For Reason, I’m Nick Gillespie.

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‘The Saker’ Mourns: “What Happened To The West I Was Born In?”

Via The Saker,

Frankly, I am awed, amazed and even embarrassed.  I was born in Switzerland, lived most of my life there, I also visited most of Europe, and I lived in the USA for over 20 years. 

Yet in my worst nightmares I could not have imagined the West sinking as low as it does now.  I mean, yes, I know about the false flags, the corruption, the colonial wars, the NATO lies, the abject subservience of East Europeans, etc.  I wrote about all that many times.  But imperfect as they were, and that is putting it mildly, I remember Helmut Schmidt, Maggie Thatcher, Reagan, Mitterrand, even Chirac!  And I remember what the Canard Enchaîné used to be, or even the BBC.  During the Cold War the West was hardly a knight in white shining armor, but still – rule of law did matter, as did at least some degree of critical thinking.

I am now deeply embarrassed for the West.  And very, very afraid.

All I see today is a submissive herd lead by true, bona fide, psychopaths (in a clinical sense of the word)

And that is not the worst thing.

The worst thing is the deafening silence, the way everybody just looks away, pretends like “ain’t my business” or, worse, actually takes all this grotesque spectacle seriously.  What the fuck is wrong with you people?!  Have you all been turned into zombies?!  WAKE UP!!!!!!!

Let me carefully measure my words here and tell you the blunt truth.

Since the Neocon coup against Trump the West is now on exactly the same course as Nazi Germany was in, roughly, the mid 1930s.

Oh sure, the ideology is different, the designated scapegoat also.  But the mindset is *exactly* the same.

Same causes produce the same effects.  But this time around, there are weapons on both sides which make the Dresden Holocaust looks like a minor spark.

So now we have this touching display of “western solidarity” not with UK or the British people, but with the City of London.  Now ain’t that touching?!

Let me ask you this: what has been the central feature of Britain’s policies towards Europe, oh, let’s say since the Middle-Ages?

That’s right: starting wars in Europe.

And this time around you think it’s different?

Does: “the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior” somehow not apply to the UK?!

Let me also tell you this: when Napoleon and Hitler attacked Russia she was undergoing deep crises and was objectively weak (really! research it for yourself!).  In both cases Russian society was deeply torn by internal contradictions and the time for attack as ideal.

Not today.

So I ask this simple question: do you really want to go to war against a fully united nuclear Russia?

You think that this is hyperbole?

Think again.

The truth is that the situation today is infinitely worse than the Cuban missile crisis. First, during the Cuban missile crisis there were rational people on both side.  Today there is NOT ONE SINGLE RATIONAL PERSON LEFT IN A POSITION OF POWER IN THE USA.  Not ONE!  Second, during the Cuban missile crisis all the new was reporting on was the crisis, the entire planet felt like we were standing at the edge of the abyss.

Today nobody seems to be aware that we are about to go to war, possibly a thermonuclear war, where casualties will be counted in the hundreds of millions.

All because of what?

Because the people of the West have accepted, or don’t even know, that they are ruled by an ugly gang of ignorant, arrogant psychopaths.

At the very least this situation shows this:

  • Representative democracy does not work.

  • The rule of law only applies to the weak and poor.

  • Western values have now been reduced to a sad joke.

  • Capitalism needs war and a world hegemony to survive.

The AngloZionist Empire is about to collapse, the only open question is how and at what cost.

Right now they are expelling Russian diplomats en masse and they are feeling very strong and manly. Polish and Ukrainian politicians are undergoing a truly historical surge in courage and self-confidence! (hiding, as they do, behind Anglo firepower)

The truth is that this is only the tip of a much bigger iceberg.  In reality, crucial expert-level consultations, which are so vitally important between nuclear superpowers, have all but stopped a long time ago.  We are down to top level telephone calls.  That kind of stuff happens when two sides are about to go to war.  For many months now Russia and NATO have made preparations for war in Europe.  And Russia is ready.  NATO sure ain’t!  Oh, they have the numbers and they think they are strong.  The truth is that these NATO midgets have no idea of what is about to hit them, when the Russians go to war these NATO statelets won’t even understand what is happening to them.  Very rapidly the real action will be left to the USA and Russia.  Thus any conflict will go nuclear very fast.  And, for the first time in history, the USA will be hit very, very hard, not only in Europe, the Middle-East or Asia, but also on the continental US.

I was born in a Russian military family and I studied Russian and Soviet military affairs all my life. I can absolutely promise you this, please don’t doubt it for one second: Russia will not back down and, if cornered, she will wipe out your entire civilization. The Russians really don’t want war, they fear it (as they should!) and they will do everything to avoid it.  But if attacked then expect a response of absolutely devastating violence.  Don’t take it from me, take it from Putin who clearly said so himself and who, at least on that issue, is supported by about 95% of the population.  From the Eastern Crusades to the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union, enough is enough, and the Russians will not take one more western attack, especially not one backed by nuclear firepower.  Again, please ponder Putin’s words very, very carefully: “what need would we have a world if there is no Russia?

All that for what?  The USA and Russia have NO objective reasons to do anything but to collaborate (the Russians are absolutely baffled the fact the leaders of the USA seem to be completely oblivious to this simple fact).  Okay, the City of London does have a lot of reasons to want Russia gone and silent. As Gavin Williamson, the little soy-boy in charge of UK “defense”, so elegantly put it, Russia should “go away and shut up”.  Right.  Let me tell you – it ain’t happening!  Britannia will be turned into a heap of radioactive ashes long before Russian goes away or shuts up.  That is simply a fact.

What baffles me is this: do American leaders really want to lose their country in behalf of a small nasty clique of arrogant British pompous asses who think that they still are an Empire?  Did you even take a look at Boris Johnson, Theresa May and Gavin Williamson?  Are you really ready to die in defense of the interest of these degenerates?!

I don’t get it and nobody in Russia does.

Yeah, I know, all they did is expel some diplomats.  And the Russians will do the same.  So what?  But that’s missing the point!

LOOK NOT WHERE WE ARE BUT WHERE WE ARE HEADING!!

You can get 200,000 antigun (sigh, rolleyes) protesters in DC but NOBODY AT ALL ABOUT NUCLEAR WAR?!

What is wrong with you people?!

What happened to the West where I was born in in 1963?

My God, is this really the end of it all?

Am I the only one who sees this slow-motion train-wreck taking us all over the precipice?

If you can, please give a reason to still hope.

Right now I don’t see many.

The Saker

PS: yes, I know. The rules of the blog prohibit CAPS as this is considered shouting.  Okay, but this time around I AM TRYING TO SHOUT!  So, for this one time only, feel free to use caps if you want.  The world badly needs some shouting right now, even virtual shouting.

 

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Ex-Supreme Court Justice Calls For Repeal Of Second Amendment

Retired U.S. Supreme Court justice John Paul Stevens, 97, called for the repeal of the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution – which gives Americans the right to own and bear firearms. 

Stevens, who sat on the country’s highest court for 35 years prior to his 2010 retirement, contends that repealing the Second Amendment “would eliminate the only legal rule that protects sellers of firearms in the United States – unlike every other market in the world.” 

It would also give criminals dominance over law-abiding victims who are unable to match force, not to mention the historical precident of governments disarmaming a population before committing atrocities. 

Stevens’ comments were prompted by the response to the Parkland shooting, in which 17 students and faculty were gunned down at Florida high school on Valentine’s day – sparking a national debate over gun control in which several students from Marjory Stoneman High have risen to instant fame, becoming overnight celebrities in the push to erode the Second Amendment. 

“Rarely in my lifetime have I seen the type of civic engagement schoolchildren and their supporters demonstrated in Washington and other major cities throughout the country this past Saturday,” Stevens wrote in a NYT op-ed. “These demonstrations demand our respect.”

Not all Parkland students agree, however. Kyle Kashuv, a pro-2nd Amendment survivor of the shooting, has been virtually ignored by the liberal mainstream media due to his divergent opinion on gun control. Kashuv has been asking why people are protesting guns when the Valentine’s Day massacre was entirely preventable had the Broward Sheriffs Department and FBI simply done their jobs amid several reports that suspect Nikolas Cruz was likely to shoot up a school

Of note, Parkland gun-control advocate Cameron Kasky backed out of a debate wiith Kashuv.

Meanwhile, Kashuv has been calling out David Hogg and other Parkland survivors over Twitter, along with CNN’s Brian Stelter who recently admitted that he allowed the Florida wing of the Mickey Mouse gun control club spew false information over his network (shocker!). 

Ex-justice Stevens noted in his op-ed how the Supreme Court had already curbed the Second Amendment’s reach during the 20th century, and suggested that the threat of a tyrannical federal government was “a relic of the 18th century.” 

By repealing the Second amendment, writes Stevens, the United States “would make our schoolchildren safer than they have been since 2008 and honor the memories of the many, indeed far too many, victims of recent gun violence.” 

A repeal of the Second Amendment can be proposed with a two-thirds vote in the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate, or by a constitution convention assembled by two-thirds of the states, and ratified by three-fourths of the 50 states. 

Or, they can just whittle down the Amendment until it’s unrecognizable and effectively neutered. 

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Socialist Utopia: Child Gangs Fight For “Quality Garbage” With Machetes In Venezuela

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

While many politicians and civilians in the United States focus on making the country a socialist regime, Venezuela’s children are forming gangs and using machetes to fight each other for “quality garbage” so they have something to eat.

Socialism is only good for those already at the very top.  It’s a very important lesson for anyone seeking to “remove the wealth” from the 1%.  Never assume that the rich will allow you vote their money away in the first place. The other issue most socialists forget that the 1% is made up the very wealthy politicians from both parties who will profit immensely from the implementation of socialism.  Of course, when that does happen children starve and become violent as a means to survive and have just one more meal.

The Miami Herald has detailed the lives of children forced to live under the harsh realities of socialism. Liliana, at the age of only 16, has become the mother figure for a gang of Venezuelan children and young adults called the Chacao, named after the neighborhood they’ve claimed as their territory. The 15 members, ranging in age from 10 to 23, work together to survive vicious fights for “quality” garbage in crumbling, shortage-plagued, socialist dystopia of Venezuela. Their weapons are knives and sticks and machetes. And their only prize is garbage that contains food scrapes barely good enough to eat.

Many of the children in the Chacao gang flock to a life of violence but a family-oriented one because there’s no other option if they want to eat.  There are at least 10 gangs in the capital of Caracas according to social workers and police estimate. “There were always children on the street in Venezuela but now we are seeing a new phenomenon — kids who get more food on the street than at their homes,” says Beatriz Tirado, who leads “Angeles de Calle,” or Street Angels, a non-governmental charity.

“Our kids are finding ways to survive because neither in their homes nor in their communities is there enough food,” explains social worker Roberto Patino, who has established 29 public diners all over the country to feed the massive numbers of hungry children. But Patino also bemoans that there are not enough resources to help the children get their lives back on track let alone feed them properly. For now, many have turned to trash bags as a source of nutrition.

But the gang life is dangerous for the children. Often, they venture into the more affluent neighborhoods of the politicians. One of those territories is Las Mercedes. It has high-end restaurants that attract the political elite Venezuelans. Because garbage bags there often contain leftovers and even untouched food, they are sought after by a number of the gangs. The clashes over bags of trash can be deadly.

The children often take to the consumption of street drugs at an early age as well.  They become criminals, tossing the law out the window to survive.  They steal, assault people, and use drugs like crack, sometimes smoked in makeshift pipes made from the parts of discarded plastic dolls, but for a very disturbing reason. “When you smoke you don’t feel hungry,” explains Patricio.

The few failures of capitalism are much preferable to the few success of socialism. Although one can argue that there haven’t been any successes with regards to socialism unless you count the lining of the pockets of the politicians who rule over everyone else.

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“The Days Of Giving Them A Pass Are Over” – Advertisers Demand More Transparency From Facebook, Google

Even before the New York Times and the Guardian published their bombshell exposes about Cambridge Analytica, data published by market observers showed that the advertising “duopoly” of Facebook and Google had seen its market share slip in 2017 for the first time ever.

And while some advertisers, including Mozilla and Commerzbank, have already pulled advertising campaigns from Facebook after the Cambridge Analytica scandal highlighted the fact that the company has for years aggressively marketed users’ data with little transparency or agency, other large advertisers are taking advantage of an opportunity to squeeze better rates – or more bespoke service – from both of the ad behemoths, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Firms like Proctor & Gamble and Subway are cutting back on ad spending on one or both of the two platforms because data has allowed them to more efficiently allocate their ad spending dollars.

Facebook

The demands for more accountability and better service started two years ago after Facebook revealed that its metric for the average time users spend watching videos was artificially inflated because the company was only counting views of more than three seconds. Then it continued last year following revelations that some advertisers content posted on YouTube appeared near video content that was deemed to be either racist or otherwise extreme.

Following this string of run ins and scandals, WSJ says large advertisers are fundamentally reshaping their relationship with the two advertising behemoths – even leveraging their rivalries with smaller firms like Twitter and Snapchat to further pressure the market leaders.

Madison Avenue’s increasing uneasiness with the platforms and its moves to push back aggressively are fundamentally reshaping the relationship. Advertisers’ broad push for changes has played out in behind-the-scenes dust-ups, veiled and overt threats and advertising boycotts, and has extracted some concessions from the tech giants. Among the leaders is P&G, the world’s largest advertiser.

Many companies are actively policing their ad purchases to ensure they avoid objectionable or irrelevant content. Some are cutting budgets. And they are demanding far more transparency from Google and Facebook about the performance of their ad campaigns to make sure they aren’t wasting money.

During a meeting of the Association of National Advertisers, companies staged a mini-revolt after Facebook tried to convince them that its video advertising remained effective even if customers only watched for a few seconds. Advertisers were miffed at what appeared to be Facebook trying to justify offering misleading data about its video ads. So Facebook relented and offered to provide more transparent data.

Facebook told advertising giant Publicis Groupe that average video viewing time was likely overestimated by 60% to 80%. Other miscues followed. Facebook fixed the problems as they arose and said they didn’t affect billing, but trust with advertisers had frayed.

“The days of giving digital a pass are over—it’s time to grow up,” Mr. Pritchard said publicly at an industry trade group meeting in January 2017.

The following month, at a meeting of the Association of National Advertisers, the group wanted to know when Google and Facebook would allow the industry’s measurement watchdog, the Media Rating Council, to audit some of their metrics.

Instead, Facebook executives including Carolyn Everson, vice president for global marketing solutions, launched into a presentation about how video ads were effective on Facebook, even if users only watched them for a very short time, said people familiar with the meeting, frustrating some attendees.

“If our boards come to us and ask us, ‘Do you know where these dollars went’ and we cannot confirm it, we have a problem and therefore you do,” said Deborah Wahl, who was then U.S. marketing chief of McDonald’s Corp. , according to one of those people.

Facebook executives got the message and laid out a plan to give more measurement data to third-party companies and promised to undergo an audit of its measurement processes.

Offering more precise metrics has allowed advertisers on both Facebook and Google’s platforms to better measure engagement, allowing them to save money in the process.

P&G this month said it cut more than $200 million in digital ad spending in 2017, including 20% to 50% cuts at “several big digital players,” partly because better data showed it was wasting money. P&G found that the average view time for a mobile ad appearing in the news feed on platforms such as Facebook is only 1.7 seconds.

Restaurant chain Subway plans to cut back on Facebook spending this year because of concerns about whether its ads are being viewed sufficiently, according to a person familiar with the matter. One global beverage company is planning to cut its spending on Facebook ads by about 30% in the U.S. and the U.K. this year because of a decline in effectiveness, according to a person familiar with the matter.

But making sure – for example – that advertisements for Tide-branded products don’t appear alongside videos of teenagers attempting “the Tide pod challenge’ – is just the beginning. Both advertising behemoths have gotten the message that they can no longer take their customers for granted.

The question now is, with Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and several of his peers likely headed for a Congressional hearing later this year, will we see more advertisers jump ship?

One thing’s for sure: Media companies – which have suffered enormously as Facebook and Google have siphoned off the ad revenue on which they once depended – will be watching closely for even the slightest opening.

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“Please Remain Cool” Fund Managers Beg As FANG+ Index Drops Most On Record

Echoing the immortal words of Bob Pisani, “the most important thing is to remain coolaccording to Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, Birmingham, Alabama-based senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management, who helps oversee about $17 billion.

“Cool” will be an important word for tomorrow, after NYSE’s FANG+ index crashed 5.6% today – its biggest drop ever – putting the widely-owned index of mega-tech, ultra-high P/E names deep in correction territory (down almost 14% from its highs)…

Volume was extremely high compared to yesterday’s practically-silent melt-up…

And as Bloomberg notes, in this bull market alone there’s been five other corrections like this one, and it’s taken around seven months on average for equities to climb out of their hole. Based on that path, the current jitters won’t be fully eradicated until August… just in time for MidTerms to spike volatility once again.

“People’s muscle memories spaz,” said Michael Purves, Weeden & Co.’s chief global strategist. “It’s like going to the gym and lifting weights after you haven’t been to the gym for two years. Part of it is just a very normal psychological, emotional reaction to a very stressful thing.”

But tomorrow is critical as the index of tech stocks sits at the intersection of two critical support levels – a two-year trendline connected higher lows from early 2016 and The Shanghai Accord and the crucial 100-day moving-average…

Volatility is back with a vengeance. Bloomberg points out that there have already been 22 days in which the S&P 500 moved more than 1 percent in the first three months of the year, triple the total for all of 2017.

“You had this incredible low-volatility environment, but markets are supposed to go up and down,” Michael O’Rourke, Jones Trading’s chief market strategist, said by phone. “Relative to how markets should be and how they behaved most of my career, thus far this selloff is not a major event. At this point the selloff relative to history is just a blip.”

So the rupture is back-to-normal, and normal is usually hard as the FANG+ index lost $180 billion in market cap today alone (and just the four FANG names are now down over $260 billion in the last 10 days).

“So much of the money was directed toward tech stocks, and there is a much greater emotional identification for investors in these household names,” said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG LLC In New York.

‘‘People are incrementally more agitated than they were during February’s leg down because everyone believed the coast was clear. People are optimistic by nature, so when corrections hit, they are largely unexpected and emotionally jarring.

One other point of note – Nasdaq futures were up over 3% yesterday and down 3% today – that hasn’t happened since 2011 – and, as @Dburgh notes, is not a great signal for the weeks ahead judging by the last 14 occurrences.

Consider, as @L0gg0l noted, in 13 of the 14 occurrences, the US economy had entered a recession.

Finally, we circle back to “Bucky” – our hero wealth manager from the beginning of this note. He has some final reassuring words for all of his clients (and potential clients):

“I keep the checklist of things that went wrong during the financial crisis, and I look at it from time to time to see where we stand. We’re nowhere close…”

Of course, we don’t want to break it to “Bucky” that valuations are off the charts compared to ‘the last financial crisis’ and correct us if we’re wrong, there wasn’t $20 trillion of assets purchases by central banks creating the greatest potemkin village market the world has ever known.

Still, probably nothing.

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How The ECB Helped A Tiny Latvian Bank Become A Haven For Drug Barons, Oligarchs, & North Korea

Of the many long-simmering scandals that have surfaced so far this year, the story of the collapse of an obscure Latvian bank after its history of aiding the world’s criminals was laid bare by the Treasury, which imposed sanctions against the bank on Feb. 13, precipitating its collapse.

A month after the chief of the country’s central bank – also an ECB governing council member – was arrested by anti-corruption authorities on suspicion of accepting a bribe worth more than 100,000 euros, triggering a banking crisis in the tiny post-Soviet state, the Wall Street Journal has published a comprehensive account of how ABLV emerged following the collapse of the Soviet Union and developed into a haven for criminals trying to move illicit money into and out of Europe.

Latvia

So as not to understate the threat posed by the bank, WSJ explains how rare it is for the Treasury Department to pursue sanctions against a fellow NATO member.

ABLV, Latvia’s third-largest lender by assets, is based in Riga but has an office in Luxembourg and a subsidiary in the U.S. It is also supervised directly by the ECB under a new system of eurozone bank supervision introduced during the region’s recent financial crisis, under which national authorities remain responsible for enforcing money-laundering laws.

That the U.S. invoked a rare sanction in a fellow NATO member-country shows the scale of the threat it perceives from this small corner of the European Union. A parade of American diplomats have visited Latvia in recent years saying that lax regulation allowed criminal or sanctioned entities to sneak ill-gotten fortunes into Europe.

“It’s a national security issue,” U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan told Latvian reporters in February, during a visit to Riga days after the U.S. sanctioned ABLV. “Security threats can take many forms, including corruption and efforts to undermine the integrity of the financial system,” he said.

ABLV is accused of working with shell companies linked to North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, as well as functioning as a clearinghouse for the ill-gotten fortunes of post-Soviet kleptocrats.

Before it collapsed, the bank denied the charges with its last gasp, saying they were “inaccurate in important respects” and pledged to work “quickly and cooperatively with US regulators to resolve their concerns.” Of course, that’s not happening; instead the ECB has opted to dissolve the bank.

And the ECB should handle it, because it’s a problem that was inadvertently created by the EU when it deliberately ignored flagrant AML vulnerabilities endemic to Latvia’s banking system when it was evaluating the Baltic state for EU membership, which Latvia received in 2004.

In 1998, as the EU was becoming a cogent force, Latvia created a regulator to combat money laundering, knowing it would be a membership requirement. The regulator set modest fines for money laundering: a maximum of €142,000 for the bank, and €350 for the employee involved, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Yet no national law explicitly banned opening bank accounts in fake names. Foreigners who’d never set foot in the country could open accounts with ease at foreign bank branches.

After a 2000 inspection lasting three days, an EU anti-money-laundering team vetting Latvia’s application to join the bloc praised the country for “a very comprehensive structure for the protection of the financial system.” By the time Latvia joined the EU four years later, the assets held by its banks were slightly larger than the country’s entire economy thanks to a profusion of foreign business conducted mostly through anonymous shell companies. ABLV, whose founder was by now one of the country’s richest men, set about trying to win clients in its post-Soviet neighbors. It was successful. And even its legitimate foreign customers generally sent their money to Latvia via third-party nations that allowed them to easily disguise the source. Soon, more than 80% of the bank’s clients were based outside of Latvia, with nearly 90% using shell companies, according to the country’s Financial Intelligence Unit.

Still, bankers insisted they possessed the tools to root out money laundering.

In an interview in February, ABLV’s Chief Executive Vadims Reinfelds said the bank believed it had the cultural know-how to separate criminal clients from the ones who merely wanted to legally get their money out of Russia. “We know when Russians are lying,” he said. He added that “there is no recommendation that we have not implemented…to combat money laundering,” he said.

ABLV became a correspondent bank for 49 lenders, including Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan, opening a secure path to the West for its clients. In 2001, the bank helped a Colombian cocaine baron move $697,000, according to U.S. prosecutors charging the Colombian man. The bank says it couldn’t have known the transfer was connected to criminal activity. Later, authorities uncovered a child pornography ring that routed money through the bank.

All the while, the EU praised the country’s banking standards, even as the US became increasingly wary.

A 2004 report found Latvia compliant with all EU anti-money laundering standards, as US intelligence agencies warned about possible links with North Korea.

In 2004, shortly after Latvia joined NATO, the US offered the country military aid, but insisted that Latvia allow US auditors to examine the country’s banks.

ABLV

Daniel Glaser, then the U.S. Treasury’s No. 2 terror-finance official, flew to Riga to oversee the work. In 2005, he declared two Latvian banks money launderers, and restricted them from dealing with American banks. Still, that didn’t put a stop to the problem.

At this point, Latvian banks were reporting tens of thousands of suspicious transactions a year. Regulators could barely afford to follow up on a fraction of those. By this time, the European banking crisis was in full swing, and regulators shifted their attention away from money laundering.

That only encouraged the problem to fester.

In one incident, a US probe into a Ukrainian gas tycoon allied with former President Yanukovich prompted ABLV to drop the client.

The bank said it had hired 109 anti-money-laundering specialists to sift through its client list by 2017, and trimmed a fifth of its customers by the end of that year. It also hired Glaser to review its  finances, and declared a “zero tolerance” policy toward North Korea.

But that wasn’t enough to stop the US from dropping the hammer.

Latvia’s regulators tried to keep the bank afloat, and spent days considering a $590 million emergency loan. But the ECB announced that ABLV would be liquidated. Most depositors will receive no more than €100,000.

The fallout from the scandal is hardly over. Prosecutors are looking into claims of extortion and bribery involving local officials. Meanwhile, the country’s prime minister continues to nervously reassure his constituents that the country isn’t vulnerable to a banking crisis, following a series of vicious bank runs.

For now, at least, the house of cards that is the country’s banking system remains intact.

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