Jim Kunstler Exposes The “Hidden Figures”

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

The fabulous Coen Brothers of Hollywood couldn’t come up with a wackier Deep State than the one depicted on Cable News this week. Thursday’s House Judiciary Committee hearing had Congressman Jim Jordan (R- Ohio) in the role of “The Dude” from The Big Lebowski doing battle with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein as “Osborne Cox” in Burn After Reading. Rosenstein was sure burning, or at least smoldering in his seat, as Jordan badgered him about threatening House staffers by subpoenaing their emails and phone calls…!

The gotcha moment: “You can’t subpoena a phone call,” Rosenstein answered, trying to suppress his mirthful smirk… as in, listen to me, you dim, Rotarian, Buckeye clod, with your worthless JD from the most obscure law school in the darkest corner of your meth-and vicodan-addled state… you can’t subpoena a phone call, ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha…!

Had Mr. Jordan been a little more nimble of mind in his Dude role, had he not, say, downed that Red Bull and Ayahuasca “pick-me-up” before the committee session, he might have come back smartly at Mr. Rosenstein with a simple, “…yes, but you can subpoena the records of phone calls, can’t you?” Schwing. Only the poor clod muffed it, and Rosenstein’s praetorian guard of attorneys in the seats behind him joined in the mirthful smirkery, grand fellows of the Deep State are we, we eat Buckeyes for breakfast!

Now, Mr. Trey Gowdy (R – SC) is a different breed of porpoise among congressmen, kind of legal man-eating orca. In look and demeanor, he comes off as a cross between Atticus Finch and the young feller who played the banjo so well in the opening scenes of Deliverance. Mr. Rosenstein didn’t dare lay any mirthful smirky trips on Mr. Gowdy, who radiated the consolidated wrath of the legislative branch at this flock of executive branch popinjays. Mr. Gowdy, who is declining to run for his seat this year, may be bound for bigger things. Some say he may be the next Attorney General.

In case you’ve forgotten, Rod Rosenstein is not the Attorney General, he’s the Deputy AG. His boss is Mr. Jeff Sessions, an elusive figure for months now in the malarial DC backwaters, like that Louisiana Swamp Thang that turns up in the fake Bigfoot documentaries, looming hairily through the night-vision goggles in a cypress slough. Maybe three or four people have laid eyes on him since sometime back in April. Better check his office, make sure he isn’t hunched over face-down in a take-out order of tonkatsu ramen.

It’s rumored that our president, the Golden Golem of Greatness, can, shall we say, put the Department of Justice and its subsidiary, the FBI, out of their current misery by finally firing a few of these conniving top dawgs. Order Rosenstein to release un-redacted files he’s been sitting on for a year, and fire his ass for cause when he refuses. In the case of Mr. Sessions, for Godsake, call the undertaker.

The figures most hidden these days go by the names Barack Obama, Hillery Clinton, Bill Clinton, John Brennan, James Clapper, James Comey, Loretta Lynch, Huma Abedin, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz.

If or when the dark, tangled, matrix of “matters” at the FBI ever manage to get unraveled, these characters will come tumbling out with the yarn, dropping into the harsh daylight like little squirming larva of Tineola bisselliella, the common wool moth.

Personally, I can’t imagine that the mighty mischief at DOJ and the FBI the past two years was not initially approved before 1/20/17 in some fashion by Mr. Obama and with his explicit knowledge.

There’s little doubt that the “Steele Dossier” was the “insurance policy” that FBI Counter-espionage Chief Peter Strzok and FBI attorney Lisa Page referred to in their famous text exchange about how to deal with the “terrifying” specter of a possible President Trump. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz needs to explain under oath how her humble IT employee, a Pakistani national, become a real estate millionaire in the DC burbs while servicing, shall we say, her laptop. Hillary, of course, is like some mythical Cave of Seven Winds — a boundless dark realm of winged beasts and crawling things. Loretta Lynch still has some public ‘splainin’ to do about meeting certain folks on tarmacs.

The grand juries are begging to be convened.

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GM Warns Auto Tariffs Would Kill Jobs, Lead To “Smaller Company”

Is GM looking to become the next Harley-Davidson? Because the company appears to be doing everything in its power to provoke an angry Trump tweet.

Just a week after revealing that it would build the new Chevy Blazer in Mexico, the company said Friday that it could reduce US jobs if the US imposes tariffs on auto imports.  Trump famously threatened to impose a 20% tariff on cars and other automobiles imported from the EU after the trade bloc unveiled retaliatory tariffs on $3.2 billion of US goods.

An industry group known as the Auto Alliance has seized on a figure, arguing that auto tariffs could increase the average car price by nearly $6,000, costing the American people an additional $45 billion in aggregate.

According to Reuters, the company said auto tariffs being considered by the Trump administration could lead to “a smaller GM” and also risk isolating US companies from the global market and – more importantly – killing US jobs. Back in late May, the Commerce Department launched an investigation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to determine whether imported cars and auto parts “threaten to impair national security” (the rationale the administration has used to justify all its trade “investigations”). GM’s comments were issued in response to the investigation.

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Laws That Are ‘Impossible’ to Follow Can Still Be Constitutional, Says California Court

ConfusedJust because a law is impossible to follow is not enough of a reason for a court to throw it out. So California’s Supreme Court ruled on Thursday.

On the face the ruling sounds utterly absurd, but there’s a deeper explanation that makes it a little less silly and much more deeply concerning about the deference granted to lawmakers.

Some context: California passed a law a decade ago that demanded gun manufacturers implement microstamping technology that would imprint identifying information on bullets as they were shot from semi-automatic weapons. Gun manufacturers say the technology hasn’t advanced enough to comply with the law. Smith & Wesson announced in 2014 that they would be pulling some guns from the market in California rather than complying with the law (a cynic might theorize that this is the law’s actual intent).

The National Shooting Sports Foundation sued to block the law. California’s Civil Code contains a section that simply reads, “The law never requires impossibilities.” So the question the state’s Supreme Court was addressing was whether the courts can invalidate this law because it is impossible for people to comply with it.

Not only did the California Supreme Court rule that it cannot invalidate the law, but it ruled so unanimously. To be clear: The court does not suggest that people can face punishment for being unable to comply with impossible laws. Instead, the court says, “impossibility can occasionally excuse noncompliance with a statute, but in such circumstances, the excusal constitutes an interpretation of the statute in accordance with the Legislature’s intent, not an invalidation of the law.” Essentially, it’s not unconstitutional to pass impossible laws, but the courts can exempt people from the consequences of those laws without overturning the laws themselves.

Strip away the absurdity, and it’s essentially a very technical ruling. The court acknowledges its role in making sure that people are not punished for being unable to comply with a law because it’s impossible—that would be an unconstitutional violation of a person’s rights. It just can’t use that basis for invalidating the law itself.

This is all of interest because California lawmakers regularly pass terrible laws that interfere with markets and individuals’ choices for the expressed purpose of controlling how the state develops. Often the laws are impractical in the current environment and are designed to push technological development in certain directions that appeal to certain political (and politically connected) constituencies.

The most obvious example is California setting extremely high renewable energy goals by law in order to control how the market develops. It may be currently impossible for the state to get all its energy from renewable sources, but because these laws exist, it necessarily means that the state’s public and private development is going to be deliberately focused in such a way that compliance eventually becomes possible, and then mandatory.

Indeed, Attorney General Xavier Becerra made it clear in his statement praising the ruling that this is entirely the point. Lawmakers pass laws that have currently “impossible” technological standards for the purpose of controlling what the private sector develops and how the private sector is regulated.

“Today’s ruling confirms that California can create incentives for the gun industry to make products that serve the public’s needs,” Becerra said in a prepared response. “Innovation and technology will continue to drive California to be a leader. We will not go backwards. The California Department of Justice is committed to reducing gun violence and improving the ability of law enforcement to fight crime and hold accountable those who commit firearm murders and assaults.”

California is far from alone in the attitude that technological development should be directed to serve political constituencies. The result is that various interests lobby the government to control how these goals are set so that they are likely able to meet them and cash in—and perhaps their competitors are not.

There are costs borne by the public due to these impossible laws. For example, California passed a law in 2006 calling for the state to reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly by 2020. No, this isn’t an “impossible” law on its face, but the result was a whole host of regulatory and policy changes implemented to make what was impossible in 2006 much more possible in the future. That goal was one of the ways the terrible high-speed rail boondoggle was sold to Californians. The state claimed it would reduce greenhouse gases. Those claims are very dubious, but Californians are still, at the moment, stuck with an expensive, unneeded train proposal that will cost more than $100 billion and won’t be finished for decades. The state’s citizens are getting bilked due to the costs of meeting this arbitrary goal.

And what if some companies are able to innovate to reach these “impossible” goals and others are not? That’s what we’re seeing in the European Union as it implements a vast, confusing data-privacy law that may well end up being impossible for some businesses to comply with. Big names like Google and Facebook—with all their money and lawyers—are able to comply. Smaller businesses are not, or at least it is much more difficult for them to do so. When the government sets impossible goals in order to force businesses to make the government’s future agenda possible, some firms are going to be left behind. It’s another way for the government to choose winners and losers.

Laws that are “impossible” to comply with do, in subtle ways, threaten the livelihoods of citizens as they struggle to adjust to these demands. They do challenge our freedom as citizens by attempting to force markets and innovators to dance to the government’s tune—or the tune of the people with powerful government connections. There’s a saying: “Nothing’s impossible for the person who doesn’t have to do it.” Some of those people have the power to enshrine the impossible as law and leave the rest of us figuring out how to adapt.

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Comcast Hit By “Nationwide Service Interruption”

Perhaps because US telecom giant Comast has decided to dedicate most of its budget to acquiring Fox instead of actually spending it on maintaining its sprawling infrastructure and CapEx, moments ago the second-largest multichannel video service provider in the US by total subscribers (with over 22.5 million) announced it was experiencing a “nationwide service interruption.”

The company’s help account, @ComcastCares said in response to a customer inquiring about the outage that they are working to “have this resolved as quickly as possible.”

The website Down Detector, which crowdsources outage reports, shows highly concentrated Comcast outages in the northeast, parts of California and in the Chicago and Denver areas.

Making matters worse, it appears the outage has also affected the company’s customer service number with customers complaining the could not reach the company.

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Pennsylvania Officer Tases Suspect in the Back Because He Didn’t Cross His Ankles Quickly Enough

A Pennsylvania police officer tased a sitting suspect in the back, and video of the incident is going viral.

A Facebook video shows a man since identified as Sean Williams, 27, on a sidewalk as a Lancaster police officer, identified as Philip Bernot, gives him instructions to sit on the curb.

Bernot can be seen pointing his Electronic Control Device (ECD) towards Williams while he speaks. Bernot tells Williams to put his legs “straight out,” which he does. Bernot then tells Williams to cross his ankles. As Williams begins to pull his legs back, Bernot, who is standing behind the seated man, shoots his ECD into Williams’ back.

“Oh come on, bruh. You’re really going to tase him? He was sitting down,” shouts the bystander who captured the incident on camera. “That’s crazy. That’s why I record everything.”

Lancaster Mayor Danene responded to the incident after the video circulated. Sorace said in her own Facebook video that she was “upset” by the initial video. She went on to say that the use of force was taken “very seriously” and announced an investigation was underway. Sorace also mentioned communication with civil rights groups and confirmed her support for a body camera initiative.

A report from the Lancaster police offers one explanation for the events leading up to the tasing. An Officer Mazzante responded to an initial call in the area about a disturbance. The caller accused Williams of going after them on the street. Mazzante came across a group fitting the caller’s description and told Williams to sit down after he repeatedly told one of the females in the group that he wanted his Social Security card.

Mazzante repeated her instructions “several times” before Bernot took over. The subsequent events were captured on video and posted online.

Emergency medical services followed protocol by performing a check on Williams. Officers took him into custody after finding an outstanding warrant, which charges were listed as “Possession of a Controlled Substance (PCP) and Public Drunkeness.” He was later released on a $5,000 bail.

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“Something Unusual Is Happening” – The High Yield Of Investment Grade Debt

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,

The US stock market is on fire.

The American economy is clipping along at the best pace in a long while. Financial conditions are still easy. Not surprisingly, high-yield bond spreads are within spitting distance of recent tights (lows).

This is all to be expected in an environment of economic expansion.

Investment-grade not playing ball

As a macro guy, there is nothing unexplained with this picture. But I must admit, I don’t follow the day-to-day movements of different parts of the bond market as much as I should. Luckily, I have friends at credit shops who recently brought to my attention the divergence between investment-grade OAS (Option Adjusted Spread) and high-yield OAS. For those not familiar with OAS, think about it as the spread you earn on top of the risk-free government rate for taking the credit risk of a corporate bond. For example, if government bonds yield 2.25% and the comparable high-yield index yields 5.50%, then the OAS is 3.25%.

Obviously investment-grade bonds (those with a credit rate BBB- or higher) will typically trade at a lower OAS than high-yield bonds (those rated below BBB-). But generally you would expect the two indexes to follow each other relatively closely. And in fact, stresses often show up first in the high-yield market.

Yet, something unusual is happening in investment-grade bonds. Even though most other risk indexes are well bid, investment-grade bonds are struggling.

Here are the two different indexes since 2010.

Let’s drill in on the action over the past year and a half.

The past five months have been brutal to investment-grade credit investors. IG OAS has risen from 95 bps in late January, to 140 bps today. This is a big move for investment-grade bonds. it is an especially big move considering the fact that most other risk assets are not following suit.

In fact, if we look at the ratio of high-yield OAS to investment-grade OAS, we are sitting at the lowest level since 2009 (chart from Barclays):

Something unusual is happening.

Is the investment-grade sell-off overdone? Or is high-yield due for some catch-up on the downside?

I don’t have any answers, but it is interesting that investment-grade bonds are having such a difficult half-year. Maybe we look back at this period and say it was a great buying opportunity. But maybe we look back and say, the investment-grade bond market knew something way sooner than the rest of us.

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Jerry Brown Signs Soda Tax Ban (Yay!) So That California Cities Can Tax Other Things (Boo.)

California Gov. Jerry Brown signed a bill into law Thursday that prevents cities and counties in the state from levying sales taxes on groceries, including soda and other sugary beverages, through 2030.

Sounds great, right? On the surface, yes, but Brown and other Democratic lawmakers in the state weren’t motivated by a desire to protect citizens from excess taxation. Rather, Brown signed Assembly Bill 1838 in an effort to ensure that California localities can keep on increasing other types of taxes.

The bill, which passed with overwhelming support in both houses of California’s legislature, is the result of a compromise between lawmakers and the beverage industry, which was supporting a statewide ballot measure that would have made it difficult for cities and counties to raise all local taxes. Had the ballot measure passed, local tax increases would have needed the approval of two-thirds of voters rather than just a simple majority.

In a signing statement addressed to the California State Legislature, Brown assured lawmakers he understands that soda taxes “combat the dangerous and ill effects in the diets of children,” but indicated he had no choice in the matter. Just four cities in the state are currently passing soda taxes, he wrote, while indicating that the tax initiative had the potential to affect all 482 cities in California.

He also noted that the ballot measure would have restricted “the normal regulatory capacity of the state by imposing a two-thirds legislative vote on what is now solely within the competency of state agencies.” Such a restriction, Brown believes, “would be an abomination.”

The ballot initiative, which was formally withdrawn within minutes of Brown signing AB-138 into law, would have had a significant impact on local tax increases. According to California’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO), about half of local tax measures approved by voters since 2012 did not receive two-thirds support. Those measures have raised hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenue each year, the LAO said.

The initiative did have some support in the state legislature, particularly among several Republicans who weren’t happy it was withdrawn and didn’t think AB-1838 was a particularly good compromise.

“This bill tells one million people that signed this petition to make it harder to raise their taxes that their voices don’t matter,” said state Sen. Jeff Stone (R–Temecula), according to the Los Angeles Times.

Assemblyman Matthew Harper (R–Huntington Beach), blasted Democrats who voted in favor of AB-1838 even though they support soda taxes. “Don’t cry your crocodile tears at me,” Harper said.

Indeed, there were many Democrats who said publicly they didn’t like AB-1838 but ultimately voted yes on the measure.

“I think this is a terrible decision that we’re making,” said Assemblyman Kevin McCarty (D–Sacramento), who still supported the bill.

“What on Earth has happened here?” said Assemblyman Richard Bloom (D–Santa Monica), who also voted yes.

State Sen. Scott Wiener (D–San Francisco), couldn’t bring himself to support AB-1838, but said he understood many of his colleagues felt like they had to do so. He claimed the beverage “industry is aiming basically a nuclear weapon at governing in California and saying if you don’t do what we want, we’re going to pull the trigger and you are not going to be able to fund basic government services.”

“This is a pick-your-poison kind of situation, a Sophie’s choice. What the legislature is doing is perfectly reasonable,” Wiener added, according to The Sacramento Bee.

In essence, Brown and other lawmakers supported AB-1838 because they didn’t want to give taxpayers a bigger say in government. The result is passage of a bill that no one seems to actually like.

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Nashville Government Employees Tasked With Impounding Dockless E-Scooters Caught Riding Them Instead

Government workers tasked with taking prohibited e-scooters off Nashville’s streets have been caught riding them instead.

Nashville’s NBC affiliate WSMV aired surveillance footage yesterday of employees from the city and county’s shared Metro Public Works department having a grand old time riding confiscated e-scooters in a Metro-owned parking lot while on duty.

Now, it’s certainly hard to fault anyone for enjoying themselves on these e-scooters, which are owned by scooter company Bird. They’re a breeze to ride. But Metro employees doing so is a bit awkward given the agency’s aggressive crackdown on these same vehicles.

In May, Bird launched in Nashville, dropping hundreds of their dockless e-scooters in and around the city’s downtown. One day later the company was hit with a cease and desist letter from Metro attorney Theresa Costonis demanding that the scooters be taken off public sidewalks until a permitting and regulatory framework could be put in place.

Costonis expressed shock and dismay at the idea that Bird hadn’t asked for permission before they littered their scooters all over town, telling the Tennessean, “This is completely new and we didn’t know this was coming. We don’t have anything in place that would allow them to have started operating right off the bat.”

What followed was a sweep of Nashville’s streets that saw Metro impound over 400 of Bird’s scooters on the grounds that they were unlawfully obstructing public rights-of-way.

Bird’s own legal counsel Sam Jackson said Metro was “grossly exceeding” its authority with these sweeps, arguing that the city’s code governing right-of-way obscurations only deals with fixed objects like signs, trees, and banners. Seizing the company’s property without a court order was “unconstitutional” said Jackson. In early June the company agreed to suspend its operations while the city drafts regulations for dockless e-scooters. Currently there are no Bird scooters on the streets of Nashville.

Metro has stressed that its employees’ joyriding was an isolated incident that would not be repeated.

“These were unanticipated and unique circumstances,” the agency said in a statement adding that “we have spoken with the employees and they have assured us that nothing like this will happen again.”

The stern warning is nice. What would be better still is if the agency would stop its crackdown and allow Nashville residents—government workers and private citizens alike—the same freedom to ride clearly irresistible e-scooters.

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Watch As Hong Kong Real Estate Agent Brawl For A Client’s Business

While America, and more recently Canada, have both had their ups and downs with housing bubbles, nothing in the world compares to what is going on in Hong Kong, that mecca of overpriced real estate: overnight the Rating and Valuation Department announced that Hong Kong’s private home prices rose 1.7% in May, 15% higher from a year ago. This was the 19th consecutive record price, and a non-stop advance since April 2016.

“Hong Kong’s home prices have smashed records every month this year and we do not see the increase ending any time soon,” said Derek Chan, head of research at Ricacorp Properties. “One record high after another is making people panic.”

The unprecedented surge in prices, means that Hong Kong has persistently been among the cities identified by UBS as being in a real estate bubble.

It is also the world’s most unaffordable city: the same UBS report found that a skilled service worker would need to work 20 years to buy a 650-square-foot (60 square meter) apartment near the city center.

This is because real incomes have virtually stagnated in Hong Kong for many years, with UBS noting that “housing is less affordable here than in any other city we considered, and the average living space per person amounts to only 14m2 (150 sqft).”

So if it is not rising median wealth, what is behind this torrid demand for HK real estate? According to UBS “the latest boom stemmed from strong investor demand, general positive sentiment and the “fear of missing out” on capital gains. This is reflected as well in a frozen secondary market in which people hold on to their properties, expecting prices to rise further.”

In its latest attempt to moderate the housing bubble, on Thursday Hong Kong’s Executive Council approved several proposals, one of which includes introducing a vacancy tax on newly built flats that remain unsold, to cool down the overheating property market. Additionally, it is expected that Hong Kong’s flat-hoarding developers will face an annual vacancy tax amounting to double a property’s annual rental income.

However, according to analysts and agents the policy is not a long-term fix to the city’s housing crisis and urged the government to boost land supply.

“The extra supply of 9,000 [vacant] flats is even less than one third of the annual housing supply expected to offer by developers,” said Vincent Cheung, deputy managing director for Asia valuation and advisory services at Colliers International. “It would only work together with other mid- to long-term policies, such as reducing land premium and increasing the ratio of public land supply to private land supply.”

Until a solution is found, amid this “frozen” bubble of a housing market where normal buyers and Chinese oligarch sellers can rarely if ever that scenes such as the following are a common occurrence: watch as Hong Kong real estate agents literally throw punches, kick each other to the ground and otherwise pull their best kung fu moves as they brawl with one another to get a client’s business.

 

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Trump’s Plan To Privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Leaves Taxpayers on the Hook for Future Bailouts

Back in November of 2016, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, announced that the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be a “top 10 priority” for the new administration.

Eighteen months later, the Trump administration has finally outlined a plan to reshape the two government-backed mortgage firms. But, like other aspects of the administration’s recent proposal to overhaul the federal government, the suggested reshaping of Fannie and Freddie doesn’t go nearly far enough.

“It’s not removing government from the housing sector; it may shift government subsidies from Fannie and Freddie to other entities, but that’s it,” says John Berlau, senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

While the Trump administration’s plan does advocate terminating the conservatorship of Fannie and Freddie, the proposal would also permit new firms to apply for the same type of charter, creating an environment where many more of these corporations might proliferate, bankrolled by the government. More importantly, the proposal does little to ameliorate the “affordable housing goals” that lend themselves to dangerous lending policies.

“They’re saying they will make the implicit support for the GSEs explicit,” says Berlau. “It’s going to be something the government commits to and taxpayers are going to be on the hook for.”

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs)—that is, corporations created by an act of Congress—that purchase mortgage loans on the secondary market from banks, which they generally sell to investors in the form of mortgage-backed securities. While these GSEs don’t engage in the business of loaning themselves, they put money back into the hands of the bank to engage in more lending, often more than would be permitted under general market conditions.

They can do that because their securities are considered low-risk, like government bonds. They hold a multi-billion dollar line of credit with the U.S. Treasury, essentially guaranteeing taxpayer bailouts to these corporations in the event of another economic downturn.

By artificially boosting mortgage lending, Fannie and Freddie inflate home prices, and—largely thanks to the political pressures—encourage banks to lend to borrowers more likely to default. Those factors played a role in the mortgage crisis that triggered the 2008 financial collapse.

In the wake of that economic catastrophe, the federal government took Fannie and Freddie into conservatorship. It now backs even more mortgages than it did before the financial crisis. If another mortgage crisis hits, Fannie and Freddie might need $100 billion in new bailout money, according to a stress test conducted by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

The solution to problems created by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac isn’t simply restructuring government programs, but instead completely eliminating them. In a recent piece for Forbes, Heritage Foundation Research Fellow Norbert Michel described the dangers of the GSEs: “The legacy of the GSEs, as it would be with any such private-public partnership, is crony capitalism, higher mortgage debt, higher home prices, taxpayer bailouts, and no appreciable expansion of homeownership.” Trump has a historic opportunity to affect real change in a sector that’s been devoid of sensible reform for a long time.

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