Mall Vacancies Hits 6-Year High

A simple Google search of “malls in default”, “mall closing”, or the evergreen “retail apocalypse” will result in a bleak list of dozens of mostly midwest and western-USA newspaper and journal stories with headlines like Rushmore Mall facing foreclosure, $100M in upaid loads or Another one bites the dust and Metro area mall headed for a foreclosure sale as owner faces default on $200M loan

But a casual drive to your local Sears or Dillard’s (or the place where they used to stand) will likely confirm what we’ve long noted — that while mega malls were once the destination of choice for America’s misunderstood youth, they’re bound to suffer the same fate as the big hair, hoop earrings and creepy mustaches that once frequented their food courts in the 80s.

Fast Times at Ridgemont High, 1982, via Universal Pictures

New figures by real estate research firm Reis shows consumer presence in America’s once great cultural icon of 80s-90s suburban chic is at a 6-year low, with the the vacancy rate at metro and regional malls around the country hitting 8.6% last quarter (up from 8.4 percent in the prior quarter), the highest since the end of 2012

“After withstanding the hundreds if not thousands of store closings over the last 18 months, the neighborhood and community shopping center industry suffered its worst quarter in nine years,” the Reis report said. Data from Coresight Research confirms 4,095 store closing announcements and only 1,884 planned openings thus far in 2018.  

The 1990’s through 2000’s had witnessed developers building at a manic rate, blind to the ways the internet and the rise of e-commerce giants like Amazon would soon radically transform the retail space.

Retail chain chapter 11 debt from June 2015 through 2018-to-date surpassed $25 billion in April 2018, after Nine West filed in the SDNY reporting $1.9 billion in total liabilities. Via Reorg First Day
Overview of nearly four decades, Mall vacancy rate, via Reis

And then the great recession hit, immediately after which retail vacancies peaked at 9.4% by the middle of 2011. Left in the wake were mall staples like RadioShack, Curc The Limited, Payless, Sam Goody, Abercrombie & Fitch, Borders, and the now massive empty retail spaces of Toys R Us, Babies R Us, the Gap, Banana Republic, and many more stores closing by the dozens and hundreds

Source: Business Insider, 2018 retail store closings

According to Reis. the liquidation of Toy R Us put the most sizable dent in vacancy rates among retailer closings in the last nine years. If malls and strip centers don’t sparkle like they did in the 90’s, one major element behind the toy giant’s decline is indicative of a broader symptom: as we explained spending the majority of your FCF on debt service while ignoring capital improvements and store remodels in the age of Amazon is a doomed long-term business strategy for a bricks-and-mortar retailer.

Building like there’s no tomorrow is also: retailers were once rewarded for opening as many stores as possible as if square footage was synonymous with success of a business, and then came one-click shopping and an increasing accompanying consumer aversion to visiting stale and aging storefronts.  

As to strip malls, perhaps always considered the least glamorous segment in retail, new figures show they are taking the biggest hit, with their second quarter vacancy rate reaching 10.2% resulting in 3.8 million square feet of empty space. Vacancies increased in 55 of the 77 metropolitan areas studied by Reis, numbers not expected to improve in the near future, as a recent report from Credit Suisse has predicted that 25 percent of U.S. malls will close by 2022 — some 275 shopping centers in the next five years.

So what if anything is filling these spaces? Real estate investment trusts like Simon Property Group and Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield and are taking advantage of the fire sale property deals to work with pop-up shops and service-oriented tenants like gyms, salons, urgent care clinics, even grocery chains and entertainment venues such as the restaurant-arcade hybrid Dave & Buster’s. As for who may aoon be the new anchor tenants in the world’s most obese nation? Who else: restaurants.

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Charles Hugh Smith: We Desperately Need Shared Values, Connection, & Positive Social Roles

Authored by Adam Taggart via Peak Prosperity.com,

Our culture is becoming a “social desert”…

We’ve recently published a series of commentary on PeakProsperity.com addressing the epidemic of disconnection, dissatisfaction and demoralization that society is increasingly suffering from today:

Together, these articles beg the question: In an age of more “prosperity” than the human species has ever experienced, why are so many of us feeling so empty?

And what solutions exist out there to offer us more meaning, connection and purpose in our lives?

Joining us this week is Charles Hugh Smith, who gives a detailed account of the root causes of what’s ailing society, as well as the essential ingredients for repairing it.

Our culture is ill.

Our families have been depreciated and demoralized. A lot of people don’t get along with their families. They don’t have any family connections. Or they see their relatives once every few years or something. 

Of course this is understandable in an economy where we have where people are always moving around. You have to move for your job. Or you have to move for your kids’ schools. There’s a dozen reasons why you’ve got to move far away and then lose connection to your family of origin. Distance makes it much more difficult to maintain. But, however it occurs, this loss of sense of family is a core factor plaguing our culture. 

Then there’s the erosion of values and faith. Those experiences are primary in their participants’ lives. You have got to have faith or value. Something you really value and you’re willing to sacrifice for. You find other people in the same boat. You’re going to have something that’s really exciting and positive. Everyone is going to get positive feedback when they join.

A strong belief in a value system will allow you to congregate around things. Like for artists it’s about finding a cheap place to live and sharing your art with other people who are just as excited about doing their art. That’s a value system. I will sacrifice everything else to support this. Shared values are the anchors or magnets for social engagement. 

And when people congregate around shared values, there are positive social roles for everyone. In other words, you could be unemployed. You could be at a low point in your family.  You could have a lot of things going wrong in your life. But when you show up for that organizational meeting, people brighten, “Hey, you’re here! We need you. Your contribution is important.”

It just makes an enormous difference in your outlook on life. Your demoralization goes away — at least, as long as you’re participating in community groups with positive social roles.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris’ interview with Charles Hugh Smith (53m:56s).

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Son Of ISIS Leader Reported Killed In Suicide Attack

While his father has been declared dead many times, only to miraculously reemerge in defiance of western (and Russian) media reports, Hudhayfah al-Badri, the son of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was recently killed in an “Inghimasi” operation in Homs province while fighting against Russian and Syrian forces, according to the Telegraph, which cited an official ISIS announcement. An “Inghimasi” attack is essentially a suicide mission where ISIS soldiers fight for as long as they can until they are either gunned down, or detonate suicide vests as a last stand.

The statement announcing his death was circulated on Telegram, a popular chat app that’s also regularly used for spreading terrorist propaganda.

“The son of the Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in the “Nasiriyah” at the hotspot location in the state of Homs,” the ISIS statement said. According to Al Arabiya, the term “Nasiriyah” refers to the Alawite sect, of which Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad is a member.

ISIS

Badri is believed to have been born in 2000 to an Iraqi woman named Asmaa Fawzi Mohammed al-Kubaisi, which would make him 18 at the time of his death. In a photograph released by ISIS, he can be seen as a teenager holding an assault rifle, although that image may have been digitally altered. The ISIS statement didn’t say when Badri was killed. Badri was born in the Iraqi City of Samarra before his father became a senior al-Qaeda leader. Al Baghdadi is believed to have at least four other children.

However, according to Al Arabiya, some have raised doubts about the circumstances of Badri’s death, claiming that the story circulated by ISIS could be propaganda intended to drive recruitment.

While ISIS has lost nearly all of its territory in Iraq and Syria, Baghdadi – who is rumored to have been badly injured in an airstrike – is believed to be hiding out in a remote area somewhere near the Syria-Iraq border. He hasn’t been heard from since September, when he released a recording exhorting ISIS members and sympathizers to continue their attacks against the West in Syria, Iraq and across the world.

Baghdadi
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

Baghdadi rose to global prominence in 2014 when he delivered a speech at the Great Mosque in Mosul declaring himself the leader of a new Islamic State. Several years later, ISIS forces destroyed the mosque as a last act of defiance as they were being driven out of Mosul. He is believed to have had at least two other Arab wives and possibly also a young German woman who traveled to Iraq to join ISIS.

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Rediscovering America: A Quiz On The Fourth Of July

Authored by Robert McDonald via InsideSources.com,

Independence Day is filled with parades and picnics, fireworks, fairs and other festivities. Amid these celebrations, however, it’s important to remember that the Fourth of July commemorates a very important historical event: our nation’s declaration of its independence from Great Britain.

The quiz below, from the Ashbrook Center at Ashland University in Ashland, Ohio, provides an opportunity for you to test your knowledge of the Fourth of July and the Declaration of Independence.

1. Nearly 15 months prior to the Declaration of Independence, fighting between British Redcoats and colonial militiamen began at:

A. Bunker Hill

B. Fort Ticonderoga

C. Lexington and Concord

D. Long Island

 

2. Congress temporarily set aside this man’s June 7, 1776, resolution that “these United Colonies are, and of right ought to be, free and independent States”: 

A. Light-Horse Harry Lee

B. Robert E. Lee

C. Francis Lightfoot Lee

D. Richard Henry Lee

 

3. In Jefferson’s original rough draft of the Declaration of Independence, he wrote “We hold these truths to be” not “self-evident” but:

A. “common sense”

B. “sacred & undeniable”

C. “obvious & atrocious”

D. “proved by Britannic blood & plunder”

 

4. The draft of the Declaration of Independence presented to Congress blamed England’s King George III for the slave trade, which Jefferson described as “a cruel war against human nature itself.” Delegates from these two states insisted this passage be removed:

A. Georgia and South Carolina

B. South Carolina and North Carolina

C. North Carolina and Virginia

D. Virginia and Maryland

 

5. As delegates signed their names to the Declaration of Independence, which man supposedly said, “We must all hang together or, most assuredly, we will all hang separately”?

A. Benjamin Franklin

B. Benjamin Rush

C. Edward Rutledge

D. George Wythe

 

6. Which two future U.S. presidents crossed the Delaware and fought at the 1776 Battle of Trenton?

A. John Adams and John Quincy Adams

B. John Adams and George Washington

C. George Washington and Thomas Jefferson

D. George Washington and James Monroe

 

7. When told that George Washington  would return to private life and not remain in power if the United States won the American Revolution, this man reportedly said, “Then truly he is the world’s greatest man”:

A. John Adams

B. Marquis de Lafayette

C. George III

D. Lord Cornwallis

 

8. In addition to the Declaration of Independence, what other famous document emerged from the Assembly Room of the Pennsylvania State House?

A. The Stamp Act Resolves

B. The U.S. Constitution

C. George Washington’s Farewell Address

D. The Treaty of Ghent

 

9. Founded by Thomas Jefferson, which institution of higher learning officially commenced operations on July 4, 1802:

A. University of Virginia

B. College of William and Mary

C. United States Military Academy

D. United States Naval Academy

 

10. Both these men died on July 4, 1826 — the 50th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence:

A. Thomas Jefferson and John Adams

B. Thomas Jefferson and George Washington

C. John Adams and James Monroe

D. James Monroe and John Quincy Adams

*  *  *

Answers: 1-C, 2-D, 3-B, 4-A, 5-A, 6-D, 7-C, 8-B, 9-C, 10-A

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UK Couple Falls Critically Ill In “Major Incident” Miles Away From Skripal Poisoning

UK counterterrorism detectives and local police are investigating after a couple in their 40’s fell critically ill from exposure to an unknown substance, just a few miles from where former Russian double-agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter were poisoned with a suspected nerve agent in early March – exactly four months ago.

Authorities have not yet identified the substance, while some have speculated that the couple may have been sickened by residue from the poison which nearly killed the Skripals eight miles away in Salisbury. 

Police were initially summoned to the scene Saturday morning about the collapsed woman, and then returned that evening after a man fell ill at the same address. At first, police thought that Dawn Sturgess, 44, and Charlie Rowley, 45, had taken a contaminated batch of crack or heroin. 

“However, further testing is now ongoing to establish the substance which led to these patients becoming ill,” said Deputy Chief Constable Paul Mills. “At this stage it is not yet clear if a crime has been committed.”

Sam Hobson, a friend of the couple, said he was with them on Saturday, when Sturgess fell ill first. He told Sky News she was “having a fit, foam coming out of her mouth.” Rowley collapsed later the same day.

He was sweating loads, dribbling. … He was rocking backwards and forwards,” Hobson said. “There was no response from him. He didn’t even know I was there.” –AP via ABC

Wiltshire police have declared the sickening which happened four days ago a “major incident,” after the man and women were found collapsed inside of an Amesbury residential building. That designation will allow UK authorities to utilize more than one emergency agency to respond. 

The incident has residents worried that history may be repeating itself. 

“With the Russian attack happening not long ago, we just assumed the worst,” said student Chloe Edwards, who said police and fire engines descended on a quiet street of newly built homes in Amesbury on Saturday evening.

Edwards said she saw people in green suits — like those worn by forensics officers — and her family was told to stay indoors for several hours. –AP via ABC

London’s Metropolitian Police noted that “given the recent events in Salisbry,” local police efforts were being aided by counterterrorism officers, while UK media is reporting that the mystery substance has been sent to the Porton Down defense research laboratory for testing – the same lab which has been unable to verify the source of the nerve agent used on the Skripals.

Prime Minister Theresa May said that the Amesbury incident “understandably is being treated with the utmost seriousness.” 

The emergency services’ response echoes that in the case of Sergei Skripal, 67. The former Russian intelligence officer was convicted of spying for Britain before coming to the U.K. as part of a 2010 prisoner swap.

He had been living in Salisbury, a cathedral city 90 miles (145 kilometers) southwest of London, when he was struck down along with his 33-year-old daughter Yulia, who was visiting him.

The Skripals’ illness initially baffled doctors after they were found unconscious on a park bench in Salisbury. Scientists at Porton Down concluded they had been poisoned with Novichok, a type of nerve agent developed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. –AP via ABC

Police from 40 departments in England and Wales only just returned home last month from working the Skripal case, while specially trained workers have been decontaminating areas around Salisbury for months. 

Rob Slane of TheBlogMire.com has written a five part series “Joining some dots on the Skripal” case which can be read here: 

The UK government has pledged $3.3 million to local businesses to make up for lost revenue in the area. 

“Amesbury’s a lovely place — it’s very quiet, uneventful,” said resident Rosemary Northing. “So for this to happen, and the media response and the uncertainty, it’s unsettling.”

Neighbor Justin Doughty, who lives across the street from the cordoned-off house, said residents want to know what’s going on.

“We don’t know, to be honest now, because is it linked to Salisbury or is it drug-related?” he said. “None of us is being told anything by the police, and it would be nice to know something.

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Heterodox Academy Fights For Intellectual Freedom and Diversity Among Professors: Podcast

For all the student speech that’s being squashed on college campuses these days, higher education faces an even-more serious threat: intellectual conformity among professors, researchers, and scholars. Over the past 25 years, for instance, the “American academy went from leaning left to being almost entirely on the left. Similar trends and problems are occurring in the UK and Canada.”

Enter Heterodox Academy, a group of academics and scholars in the humanities, social sciences, and research sciences that has its origins in a blog started in 2015 by New York University’s Jonathan Haidt. The group currently claims over 1,800 professors and graduate students as members whose mission is “to improve the quality of research and education in universities by increasing viewpoint diversity, mutual understanding, and constructive disagreement.”

“Ideological frameworks, including political orientation, powerfully inform the assumptions scholars and professors make, the questions they ask, the outcomes they value, and the way they interpret their data and their world,” Heterodox’s founding documents argue. “When campuses don’t include ideologically diverse voices and don’t engage seriously with dissenting ideas, students and scholars miss the opportunity for their thinking to be challenged.” The group offers a wide-range of resources, ranging from a blog to a podcast to an online library of texts and videos, that are designed to help start and sustain wide-ranging, serious conversations among academics.

Headquartered in New York, Heterodox Academy recently sponsored a day-long “Open Mind” conference (you can watch the whole thing on the group’s website) featuring scholars and journalists from all over the political spectrum.

I spoke with Heterodox Academy’s Deb Mashek about her goals for the conference and the group. A Ph.D. in social-and-health psychology who was a full professor at Harvey Mudd College in California, she became Heterodox Academy’s first full-time executive director earlier this year.

Audio production by Ian Keyser.

Subscribe, rate, and review our podcast at iTunes, Google Play Music, or wherever works best for you.

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This Is How Much U.S. Households Lose As Gas Prices Rise

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

U.S. gasoline prices are at a four-year-high this year as a result of the higher price of oil which has reached a three-and-a-half-year high in recent weeks.

The increased pump prices are now eating into the disposable income of the average American household that will have a total of $440 less to spend this year on other goods and services because this money is expected to go for buying higher-priced gasoline.

The higher spending on gas could offset one-third of the gains from the tax cuts, with low- and middle-income families feeling the pinch much more than higher-income earners, according to S&P Global economists Beth Bovino and Satyam Panday.

“This would be tantamount to a tax increase for American households,” the economists wrote in a recent report, quoted by Bloomberg. “This is especially true for middle- to low-income Americans.”

The higher-income families, on the other hand, will be less affected by the increase in pump prices because spending on gasoline accounts for a smaller share of their total disposable income.

“The income tax cut is virtually compensating those who were hurt least from the oil-price change, which may result in even larger inequality,” according to Bovino and Panday.

Despite the higher spending on gasoline, however, the overall U.S. economy is now less oil-dependent than in the past, so oil prices in the $70s will have a more mitigated impact on economic growth than it would have in previous years, the S&P Global economists and Fed economists say.

For this year’s April–September driving season, the EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.87/gallon (gal), up from an average of $2.41/gal last summer, mostly due to expectations of higher crude oil prices. According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from June, monthly average gasoline prices may have peaked in June at $2.92/gal and are expected to drop gradually to $2.84/gal in September.

For this year’s July 4 holiday, U.S. drivers will be paying the highest Independence Day average gas prices since 2014 – at $2.90/gal, compared to $3.66/gal for July 4 in 2014, when oil prices were $100 a barrel, according to GasBuddy.

Although current national average gas prices are below the May peak of $2.98/gal, a price jump may be looming, due to OPEC’s announcement of a smaller-than-expected oil production increase, the U.S. push to have Iran oil exports down to “zero”, and significant U.S. crude oil stockpiles draws, GasBuddy says.

According to AAA, last week the United States saw the largest one-week reduction—9.9 million barrels—in crude inventories for the first summer driving season in five years. “If the decline in inventories continues and oil prices remain high, motorists could see a spike in gas prices later this summer despite the anticipated increase in production from OPEC and its partners,” AAA said last week.

Still, the higher oil prices now have a more muted impact on the U.S. economy than before, Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan wrote in an essay last month.

Several factors have mitigated that impact over time. One is U.S. shale production—higher domestic oil production means that a larger share of the economy is helped by higher oil prices. Then, reduced crude oil imports benefit the U.S. trade balance. Finally, the U.S. economy is less oil-intensive now than in the past, because of higher fuel efficiency, other forms of energy substituting part of the oil dependence, and higher share of less-energy-intensive services sector as a share of the overall economy, Kaplan argues.

For example, in 1970, the U.S. consumed 1.1 barrels of oil for every $1,000 of gross domestic product (GDP). By 2017, only 0.4 barrels of oil were consumed for every $1,000 of GDP, the Dallas Fed president says.

“Based on these various factors, it is the view of Dallas Fed economists that the negative impact of higher oil prices on GDP growth is likely to be more muted than in the past.

It is our view that a 10 percent increase in the oil price should have a relatively modest negative impact on U.S. GDP growth. This negative impact should further diminish as the U.S. continues to grow its domestic oil production,” Kaplan writes.

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Strzok May Tell House To Pound Sand After Tuesday Subpoena

Beleaguered FBI agent Peter Strzok may not comply with a Congressional subpoena issued Tuesday to testify in public at a joint hearing slated for 10 a.m. on July 10.

Speaking with CNN’s Chris Cuomo on Tuesday, Strzok’s attorney Aitan Goelman said “My client will testify soon, somewhere, sometime. We just got this subpoena today, so I don’t know whether or not we are going to be testifying next Tuesday in front of these two particular House subcommittees.”

When asked by Cuomo why the answer wasn’t an “automatic yes,” Goelman replied “Because we have come to the conclusion, forced to come to the conclusion, that this is not a search for truth, it is a chance for Republican members of the House to preen and posture before their most radical, conspiracy-minded constituents.”

To be clear, Peter Strzok’s attorney just suggested that members of Congress who suspect that his client’s well-documented hatred of Donald Trump affected the Trump investigation he spearheaded are “radical” and “conspiracy-minded.” 

“From our experience with the committee thus far, it is obvious that they don’t want the truth. They don’t want to hear what Pete has to say,” added Goelman. 

Actually, we suspect they do – as evidenced by the subpoena for open testimony from “Pete.” 

As we reported on Tuesday, Strzok testified last Wednesday in a closed door session a week after declaring he would do so “without immunity” and without invoking his Fifth Amendment right not to incriminate himself during questioning over his anti-Trump / pro-Clinton bias while heading up investigations into both candidates.

On Monday, Goelman said in a letter to the committee that they have “sharpened their knives behind closed doors” and will spring a trap on Strzok by seizing “on any tiny inconsistencies” with last week’s testimony “to ‘prove’ that he perjured himself or made false statements,” Goelman wrote in the letter somehow obtained by CNN

Having sharpened their knives behind closed doors, the Committee would now like to drag back Special Agent Strzok and have him testify in public — a request that we originally made and the Committee denied” 

Sounding suspiciously like Rudy Giuliani, he continued: “What’s being asked of Special Agent Strzok is to participate in what anyone can recognize as a trap.”

In his email, Goelman wrote that it was “generous to characterize many of these inquiries as ‘questions’” — suggesting instead that the GOP’s closed-door queries had been “political theater and attempts to embarrass the witness” through various leaks.

Among the questions Goelman complained Republicans put to Strzok were one about whether he loved Lisa Page, the recipient of his anti-Trump texts with whom he was having an affair, and another asking “what DO Trump supporters SMELL like, Agent?” — a reference to an August 2016 text Strzok sent in which he told Page he could “SMELL the Trump support” at a Walmart in southern Virginia. –WaPo

Gunpowder and freedom?

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Libertarian Party Rebuffs Mises Uprising

Nicholas Sarwark ||| Matt WelchThe Libertarian Party on Monday afternoon re-elected in a surprising first-ballot landslide incumbent Chair Nicholas Sarwark to an unprecedented third consecutive two-year term. In doing so, the nation’s third-largest political party swatted down what was supposed to be the most contentious challenge at its biannual national convention—to a leadership that was considered by various critics to be too operationally incremental, too ideologically tepid, and too (in the words of Ludwig von Mises Institute Senior Fellow and popular podcaster Tom Woods at a nearby New Orleans rally Saturday) “SJW-friendly.”

Instead, Sarwark’s main opponent, the Mises Caucus-endorsed Joshua Smith, stumbled badly in a defensive debate performance at the New Orleans Hyatt Regency Sunday night, and ended up Monday on the business end of a 65 percent-22 percent rout. In the vice chair race, two-term incumbent Arvin Vohra, who has become a lightning rod over the past year-plus for intentionally provocative public comments such as “Bad Idea: School Shootings. Good Idea: School Board Shootings,” was resoundingly drummed out of office, never receiving more than 11 percent of the vote in three rounds of balloting that ended Tuesday with a positivity-exuding 33-year-old finance/tech/consulting guy named Alex Merced squeaking past the 50 percent finish line.

“What I think the race shows is that if you want to change the direction of the Libertarian Party, if you have new ideas about how we can grow and reach new members, the election of Merced to vice chair shows that the delegates want that kind of change,” Sarwark told me Tuesday afternoon. “If your campaign is seen, or has themes of trying to kick people out, of trying to attack people like Gov. Weld, or… basically anyone—if your campaign was seen as trying to drive people out of the party, the delegates soundly rejected that. And I think that that is the biggest takeaway from the convention.”

Bill Weld and 2016 Gary Johnson campaign honcho Ron Nielson ||| Matt WelchWeld, the controversial-within-the-party 2016 vice presidential nominee and former moderate Republican Massachusetts governor who is laying the groundwork for a possible 2020 presidential run (and was everywhere to be seen at the convention, amiably taking on all skeptical comers), played a pivotal role in the decisive debate. Candidates had the opportunity to ask their opponents one question, and when it was Smith’s turn, a delegate in the audience shouted out, “What do you think about Bill Weld?!” (Weld-heckling was a sporadic feature throughout the three-day event.) Smith decided to make that his question.

“What I think about Bill Weld,” Sarwark started slowly, building into a feisty crescendo, “is that he is still in the Libertarian Party, while many of his opponents are not. [He’s been] raising money for and endorsing Libertarian candidates. He is fundraising for us. And the exposure of Bill Weld to the Libertarian Party has not made the Libertarian Party more like an establishment Republican, but has made Bill Weld a lot more like a Libertarian….He knows something about winning public office, and [we need to] learn how to do that from anybody who will help us, anybody who will join us. And we should not PUSH PEOPLE OUT who are willing to help!”

As New York gubernatorial candidate and popular party organizer Larry Sharpe, who had backed Smith, commented later, after that exchange it was “game over.”

Smith, an energetic and rough-hewn Washington-based activist and co-founder of the libertarian news site Think Liberty, was both magnanimous and defiant after his defeat at the hands of man he had criticized during the campaign for prioritizing “virtue signaling, identity politics, and battles for infamy.”

“Look, no one knew who I was eight months ago,” Smith told me. “We came in here and took 22 percent of the vote…from the most popular chair that we’ve ever had in 46 years. I’m not mad!”

Smith won the consolation prize of an at-large national committee berth Tuesday evening. “I like Nick, I’ve always liked Nick,” he said. But as a party, “we’re not going up. We’re just not, you know. He sits up there and talks a big game….We [have] a small budget, small membership base, and we’ve got to grow that. So I hope that me being an at-large will help us accomplish those goals, and, you know, if he wants to take credit for that, that’s fine.”

Sarwark’s resounding victory—he received more votes than he did in a far smoother race in 2016—was hailed by the L.P.’s more prominent elected officials, whose approach toward voter outreach tends to dovetail more with the Libertarian Pragamatist Caucus than, say, the Misesites or the in-your-face Audacious Caucus.

“This gives us a chance as a party to have some consistency and get to the next level,” said Calimesa, Calif. Mayor Jeff Hewitt, an L.P. star and successful policy reformer who is neck-and-neck in a two-man race to get on the Riverside County Board of Supervisors in November. “We’ve got the right guy in as chair, and it’s really going to make us grow.”

The contest between Sarwark, a careful and smooth-talking 38-year-old lawyer/car dealer who is also running for mayor of Phoenix, and the 35-year-old Navy veteran Smith was so nasty and upsetting for some delegates that vendors were hawking “I survived the Libertarian National Chair campaign 2018” T-shirts. But to the extent that it was a proxy war between the party’s new influx of elbow-throwing Tom Woods listeners and its older cohort of more patient coalition-builders, the pragmatists won in a rout.

As longtime L.P. hand and 2016 Gary Johnson right-hand man Tom Mahon sang to me right after the vote:

The Mises came over the mountain

The Mises came over the mountain

The Mises came over the mountain

and the Praggies kicked their ass

The Praggies kicked their ass

The Praggies kicked their ass

The Mises came over the moun-tain…..

and the Praggies kicked their ass

The respective leaderships of the Libertarian National Committee and the Ludwig von Mises Institute (LVMI) have been hurling insults at each other since the Unite the Right rally and subsequent riots in Charlottesville, Virginia last Aug. 11-12. Two days after protester Heather Heyer was rammed and dragged to death by an automobile driven by reported neo-Nazi James Alex Fields, Jr., Sarwark dinged Mises Institute President Jeff Deist for blaming the conflict on politicization without uttering the name “Donald Trump.” Then Sarwark took a swing at Woods for defending Murray Rothbard’s controversial “paleolibertarian” push toward the reactionary right in the late-1980s and early ’90s.

Woods responded by calling Sarwark a “pansy” with “a very low IQ;” Sarwark accused the LVMI of being “the preferred choice of actual Nazis,” and then Vohra issued a stinging denunciation of a pro-nationalism speech Deist had given two weeks before Charlottesville that had concluded with the line, “blood and soil and God and nation still matter to people. Libertarians ignore this at the risk of irrelevance.” Retorted Vohra: “‘Blood and soil’ is a central Nazi and nationalist idea….[A]t the current time, Mises Institute has been turned into a sales funnel for the White Nationalist branch of the Alt Right.”

Libertarian Party Executive Director Wes Benedict made the distancing exercise complete with an Aug. 15 press release stating, “There is no room for racists and bigots in the Libertarian Party. If there are white nationalists who — inappropriately — are members of the Libertarian Party, I ask them to submit their resignations today. We don’t want them to associate with the Libertarian Party, and we don’t want their money. I’m not expecting many resignations, because our membership already knows this well.”

Then something interesting happened: People didn’t leave. In fact, they kept coming in. The Mises Caucus has continued to be one of the fastest growing blocs within the party, even as the war of words between the L.P. and the LVMI (and Mises allies, such as the libertarian comic Dave Smith) raged on. Joshua Smith announced his candidacy for chair in September, winning an early endorsement from the caucus, and included in his critique of Sarwark “the fights with Tom Woods” and “telling people that maybe you’re not the kind of people we want in the Libertarian Party,” statements Smith characterized as “a huge ball-drop.”

Woods, not previously noted for his party-related activities, organized the day before the convention a raucous Take Human Action Bash a few blocks away, featuring a lively mix of speakers such as anti-war author Scott Horton and a piped-in Ron Paul. Unusually for both Woods and Paul, their speeches each made first-person plural references to capital-L Libertarians, and were basically pleas to make the party more like, well, Ron Paul.

“Most people change or adopt ideologies, not because they’re gently led by some stuffed shirt, but because they’re jolted by an articulate true believer,” said Woods, who spent a good deal of time eviscerating the philosophical and policy errors of Bill Weld, to an audience that occasionally broke out in “Tom Woods for president!” chants. “I mean, is the idea that we should be trying to trick people into voting Libertarian?”

Paul, too, urged the 200 or so people in the room—who he called “the libertarian wing of the Libertarian Party”—to focus on the basics of property rights, volunteerism, and being anti-war and anti-Federal Reserve. “Congratulations for being in the Mises Caucus, keep up the good work, and keep everybody honest,” he concluded.

Woods, a gifted and funny speaker with a loyal flock, painted a picture of a modern L.P. too far adrift from the non-aggression principle, too wracked by “fear of seeming unfashionable in elite circles.”

“When it comes to pot smoking and gay marriage, everybody has accepted those by now. What is the point? That horse is dead,” he said at one point. At another: “Now, I’ve heard it said that the Libertarian Party ought to avoid certain issues, because it will make it more difficult to make the party appeal to the LGBT community, [that] the party should be pro-LGBT. But, my answer to that is that Libertarians are not pro-LGBT. Libertarianism and the Libertarian Party are pro-humanity, period.”

She won. ||| Matt WelchMeanwhile, at the convention over the subsequent days, the party adopted new platform language defending sex workers, and removed old platform language that had supporting “control over the entry into our country of foreign nationals who pose a credible threat to security, health or property” (a change that Sarwark in particular finds significant in the current political climate). The party retained its usual support for “free market banking” and condemnation of the “use of force.”

Heading into the convention, there were two main chunks of dissatisfaction with Sarwark that translated into a widespread belief that Smith had at least a puncher’s chance to knock him out: The Mises/Charlottesville fracas, and an impatience about growing the party faster. But by the time Sarwark filleted Smith on the debate stage—and not incidentally, wielded an expert gavel during the cat-herding that passes for parliamentary procedure debates among Libertarians—the Mises Caucus just didn’t have enough bodies.

“The people who were mad about the Charlottesville and near-Charlottesville comments, that was the core of the support that on the ballot ended up voting for my competitor,” the chair said. “The people who wanted more growth, I believe that after the debate performance, and after hearing the actual numbers about how we’ve been doing, realized that we’re actually on that good trajectory for growth, and decided to stick with Nick.”

What does that trajectory look like? The 2018 L.P. convention was by far the largest of any of the party’s midterm gatherings, doubling the size of 2014. Fundraising at the convention gala possibly eclipsed even 2016—”I think we might have raised over $100,000 last night at a whack, which is amazing,” Sarwark said. There has been a post-2016 downturn in active dues-paying membership at the national level, but the party has been winning more and more local elections, getting a record number of state legislators to switch parties, and is already attracting national interest in its presidential deliberations for 2020. Most of the long-term metrics look good.

“There aren’t really words to describe how well we are doing,” Sarwark said. “The excitement we’ve had in the midterms with the number of candidates we have running and the number of Libertarians who are elected to office who are running for re-election, it has generated an energy and a buzz that I’ve never seen.”

Factionalism and bitter fights are just as prevalent in the Libertarian Party as they are in the broader lower-case-l libertarian movement, if a tad more colorfully dressed. But unlike the latter grouping, the former has a single banner under which they all manage to cooperate, with a charming and idiosyncratic affection for their occasionally vast differences. For now, the direction seems to be people coming in the tent to fight for their beliefs, rather than taking their balls and going home.

“I’m not going to leave these values, I love these values,” Hewitt said. “And no matter what person come in, I love even the crazy people in there. That won’t even become a problem once we get some wins. They’ll be whimsical then, or whatever else. People come to see that we’ll be winning, and we are that sexy party, we are that fun party. We’ve just got to start having confidence in ourselves, and taking a bit more of a patient approach to get a load of global offices.”

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Bill Bonner Asks “Would The Founding Fathers Recognize Modern America?”

Authored by Bill Bonner via Bonner & Partners,

The metamorphosis of a caterpillar into a butterfly is one of the most remarkable things in nature. The animal apparently digests itself, using enzymes triggered by hormones. Then, from the pupa, a whole new animal develops – one with wings.

Time and growth produce changes in institutions, too. Sometimes, they merely get bigger and older. Sometimes, they go through a metamorphosis and change into something very different.

We recently moved back to France for the summer. We lived here for nearly 20 years… and still have a house in the country, to which we retire every summer.

Here, we find our old friends and acquaintances… our old clothes and shoes… our tools and workshop… our tractor… and our favorite office.

And what a pleasure… there, on the table next to the bed, was a copy of Michel De Jaeghere’s great book, Les Derniers Jours: La Fin de l’Empire Romain d’Occident (The Last Days: The End of the Roman Empire in the West).

We picked it up and found where we left off a year ago… page 321.

Roman Example

Many of the founders of the American Republic were readers and scholars. “I can’t live without books,” said Jefferson.

He, Monroe, Madison, Adams, and others were much more aware of Roman history than our leaders today. Most had studied Latin and/or Greek.

They had read Plutarch, Seneca, Sallust, Suetonius, and Cicero.

Much was known about the Roman era… and much was discussed. People believed they could learn from it and do better.

In the same year that the Declaration of Independence was adopted, Edward Gibbon published the first volume of his masterpiece, The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.

The Founding Fathers were well aware of the transition – natural, and perhaps inevitable – from republic to empire. They had studied it in the Roman example. They had seen how it drew power into a few hands… and corrupted them.

They tried to prevent it from happening in the New World, putting in place limits… circuit breakers… and checks and balances… to keep the government from becoming too big, too ambitious, or too powerful.

Even then, they were doubtful that it would stick. “We give you a republic…” Franklin wrote to posterity, “if you can keep it.”

America did keep it… for nearly 100 years. Maybe a few more. Then, the metamorphosis occurred. And, like Rome, it was not very pretty.

Metamorphic Change

When a man has a wife, he has a more or less agreeable situation, depending on the circumstances. But if he has two wives, he doesn’t simply have twice as much wife. Or twice as much marriage. Or twice as much satisfaction. Or twice as much misery, such as the case may be. It is something altogether different.

Likewise, going to a small airport is very different from going to a large one. And a small, modest country has little in common with a big, aggressive, worldwide empire.

The point we have been making in our Diary is that time and scale have changed the nature, not just the age and the size, of the United States of America. It has become something the Founding Fathers had tried to avoid… and almost certainly wouldn’t like.

It was a metamorphic change, not just more of the same thing. But unlike Jesus, who turned water into wine… or nature, which turns an ugly caterpillar into a beautiful butterfly… the change from modest republic to aggressive empire was not necessarily for the better.

The Constitution was twisted into a new shape; like when an alcoholic chaperones a school party after he has had a few drinks, the kids can get away with anything.

The Bill of Rights, too, was run through the wringer. Citizens still have the right to life, liberty, and property – but only to the extent that the feds allow.

They can keep their firearms, for example, but under the Obama Doctrine, the feds can label them terrorists… and kill American citizens.

They still have the right to express themselves under the protection of the First Amendment, unless their opinions are considered “hate speech,” or the feds – or their agents at Facebook and Google – just don’t like what they say.

Your property is still safe, too; but under the doctrine of civil forfeiture, the police can take your money, your cars, and your house… with no due process of law.

Thus, were Americans mugged, mangled, and manacled. And then, the feds hit them in the face with a shovel.

Beginning in 2008, they distributed nearly $4 trillion to America’s wealthy stock- and bond-owners. Trillions more were taken from savers (most of us) by reducing interest rates… and given to big borrowers (corporations, Wall Street, and the feds themselves).

Is it any wonder that ordinary Americans are feeling a little testy?

Almost everything seems to be subject to the law of declining marginal utility. Power is no exception. And like desserts, wives, and shots of whiskey, it doesn’t take too long before the returns to additional power diminish so much that they are no longer positive.

They fall below the zero line. There, another drink is not merely useless, it could be fatal… and more power turns you into a Hell-bound bully.

Evolution of Power

That is the insight we’ve struggled to bring to light. As America evolved into an aging empire, it left behind it the laws, rules, customs, and instincts of its youth, much like Rome did after the death of Crassus in 53 BC.

The U.S. empire is now more than 100 years old. It began in the late 1890s, with the annexation of the Philippines. (Some people put the start date much earlier… when the North brought the South into imperial submission.)

Empires are very different from republics. They are no longer by, for, and of the people. They’re too big… too complex… with too many fingers in too many pies for the people or their elected representatives to keep up with.

So power migrates to the center. There, where the CIA, NSA, Pentagon, NIH, FBI, IRS, and dozens of other agencies… along with the corporate headquarters of hundreds of big industries… and thousands of pressure groups, lobbyists, factotums, hacks, think tanks, NGOs, powerful families, and apparatchiks reside, is where the real power flows.

There, too, in Rome as in Washington, the power congeals.

De Jaeghere… along with hundreds of other historians, ancient and modern… brings the process to light.

After reading them, reading the news today is almost like watching an old movie. We’ve seen it before, but we may still laugh… or shed a tear.

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