Month: August 2018

Cyber group Anonymous Greece have brought down the website of Greek government over the dozens of victims in the Athens wildfires. Access to the website “government.gr” was denied for a period of time and showed “Forbidden.”

As KeepTalkingGreece.com reports, in a post on their Facebook page, Anonymous Greece sent their own message to the disaster. Expressing condolences for the victims, the group blamed the government for the unfair death of  more than 90 people. “Responsibility lies on the government that remained idle at the time of disaster and did not inform the citizens letting them burn alive,” the group argued.

“It is obvious that nobody would have died had the state reacted in time. People didn’t know the fire was approaching and we came to the point to mourn more than 90 dead families and children,” the message read.

The group claimed that “that was the goal” of the government.

The group also criticized the attitude of the Church and especially Bishop Ieremias who claimed three days after the tragedy that the people who died in the fires “with their death they cleaned their sins.”

“Dear Church, instead of offering help to the fire-stricken people you started accusing the citizens. ‘They were burned because of their sins’. What sins did the twin angels have?” the group notes with reference to the 9-year-old twin girls who died in the fires.

“Close to God is someone who offers to his fellow man and helps as much as possible for a better world. Who loves and offers support. You are just  pawns of the state, “the group concluded its message.

The message was uploaded on Sunday evening, the government website was down on Monday afternoon. The group page on Facebook has been closed down, notes newsit.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2O1kBkP Tyler Durden

After China’s Manufacturing PMI tumbled to 8mo lows overnight (joining Japan in its demise to 13mo lows), US Manufacturing PMI for July has not been weaker since Dec 2017.

Markit’s Manufacturing PMI signals stagflation with output prices at their highest since June 2011, production slide, and supplier delivery times fall to a record low.

And after decoupling from reality in the last two months, ISM Manufacturing tumbled back to ‘hard data’ at 58.1 (dramatically below expectations)…

ISM’s survey suggests prices paid and new orders dropped in July…

ISM New Orders at their weakest since May 2017…

All ISM respondents can talk about is tariffs…

“Global demand is still strong. Working on contingency plans for the Chinese tariffs. We will probably onshore most of that material. Labor availability is becoming an issue.” (Computer & Electronic Products)

“As a result of new tariffs on materials to/from China, we are taking measures to move impacted materials ahead of effective dates, which in some cases is resulting in holding higher inventories.” (Chemical Products)

“Reviewing the business case for importing manufactured parts from China, as new tariffs will lead to increased costs that we will pass along to our domestic customers.” (Transportation Equipment)

“The steel tariffs are a concern to us. We have already seen steel prices increase due to the threat of the tariffs and are seeing kickback from our customers due to the higher prices. We are concerned that the end customer will go to off shore to purchase the finished product.” (Fabricated Metal Products) 

“Tariffs are [resulting in] customs inspection-time increases on imported raw materials from China. Logistics seems to be improving, but we are seeing a [continuing] tight chemical bulk tanker market.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)  

“Our customer demand is high, but supply of aluminum is tight. Also, tariffs are negatively affecting our bottom line, as we are unable to pass increases to all of our customers. Plus, we are seeing increases in our construction costs because of the steel price increases. Labor market is extremely tight for professional personnel, plant technicians and support associates.” (Primary Metals)  

“The so-called trade war is now taking its toll on business activity, resulting in substantial reductions to new export orders. China has all but stopped taking orders, causing inventories to build up in the U.S. Domestic business is steady. However, it is too small to carry the load that export markets have retreated from. As a result, we will be meeting as a corporation next week to recast our second-half sales and revenue projections.” (Wood Products)

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“The US manufacturing sector continued to expand in July, but shows increasing signs of struggling against headwinds of supply shortages, rising prices and deteriorating exports.

“The latest survey showed output rising at a rate roughly equivalent to an annualised 1% pace of expansion, which is the weakest since late last year. While a weakening of new export orders for a second successive month suggested foreign demand has waned compared to earlier in the year, the slowdown can be also in part attributed to increased difficulties in sourcing sufficient quantities of inputs. Suppliers’ delivery delays were more widespread than at any time in the survey’s history. With producers often scrambling to buy enough raw materials, suppliers enjoyed greater pricing power. Not surprisingly, with tariffs also kicking in, cost pressures spiked higher again.

“Some relief for manufacturers came from strong domestic demand, which meant firms were increasingly able to pass higher costs on to customers. Average prices charged for goods consequently rose at the steepest rate for seven years, which is likely to feed through to higher consumer prices in coming months.”

Does that sound like a sustainable 4% economy?

via RSS https://ift.tt/2M9YVmb Tyler Durden

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Market Wizards, a best-selling investment book written by Jack Schwager, is a must-read for investors looking to improve their performance. Each chapter of the book provides a biography and an interview of a highly successful trader/investor. Originally published in 1989, the book is full of valuable lessons from some of the best in the business, including Paul Tudor Jones, Jim Rogers, Marty Schwartz, and Ed Seykota.

Of timely interest is a quote from William O’Neil:

“Another way to determine the direction of the general market is to focus on how the leading stocks are performing. If the stocks that have been leading the bull market start to break down, that is a major sign the market has topped.”

The “leading” stocks that O’Neil mentions are commonly referred to as the “Generals.”

On the heels of recent weakness in some of today’s Generals, we examine whether these stocks are sending us a signal to seek shelter or if their lower prices are temporary and a rallying call for the troops.

FAANG Stocks

The Generals leading the market higher over the last couple of years go by the acronym of FAANG. FAANG is composed of Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (APPL), Netflix (NFLX), and Google (GOOGL). To understand the outsized effect they have on the S&P 500 consider the following:

• Per Bloomberg data, the five FAANG stocks currently account for 13.5% of the weighting of the S&P 500.

• The combined market cap of the FAANG’s is equal to that of the smallest 252 S&P 500 constituents.

• On average, each FAANG stock has over 13 times the effect on the S&P 500 index than the average stock in the index.

The popularity of the FAANG stocks has risen substantially over the last few years as witnessed by a futures contract and multiple ETFs that track the performance of these five stocks’. Further, the Bank of Montreal now offers 3x leveraged ETF’s (FNGU and FNGD) that triple the performance of the five stocks.

The following paragraphs provide a summary of the most recent earnings announcements and the stock price activity for each FAANG stock. This analysis will help us appreciate what is driving these stock prices over the last two weeks and by default driving the markets.

Facebook – Facebook fell over 20% on July 26, 2018, erasing almost $120 billion in market capitalization. The decline was the largest one-day loss of market value in one stock in the history of the U.S. equity markets.Interestingly, the two runners-up are Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT), both occurring in the year 2000. At the time, they were five-star Generals that ultimately led their troops over a cliff.

Largely responsible for the drop was Facebook’s second-quarter earnings announcement which reported weaker than expected revenue and daily active users as well as corporate guidance lowering those metrics in the third and fourth quarters. The stock was also downgraded by a few Wall Street analysts.

While the decline was severe, FB is still flat this year and up over 50% since January 2017.

Netflix – Netflix has fallen 7% since a lackluster earnings report on July 23, 2018. While earnings beat estimates, they only added 670,000 U.S. subscribers in the second quarter, missing projections of 1,200,000. This was the first time in five years they fell short of their user projections. Given that Netflix is trading at valuations that portend significant user growth, any signs that they are approaching product saturation should be especially concerning.

Despite the loss, Netflix is still up nearly 200% since January 2017 and over 85% this year.

Amazon – Amazon released its quarterly earnings on July 26, 2018. The stock closed the following day up about half a percent but since then has given back over 2%. While the market initially seemed to focus on a massive beat in earnings versus projections, investors seemed to gravitate to the company’s missed revenue expectations and guidance lower for the next quarter. Given that a large chunk of the bottom line EPS rise was attributable to a sub-3% tax rate, it is likely concerns over forward guidance are justified.

For the year to date, Amazon is up almost 60%, trading near its all-time high and showing few signs of weakness.

Google – Like Amazon, Google smashed earnings expectations, and the stock rose nearly 5% on the day following the announcement. Unlike Amazon, their sales also beat expectations, and they did not lower forward earnings guidance. Google is up 20% year to date and is perched near its all-time highs. Google appears to be the strongest of the Generals.

Apple – Apple’s second quarter earnings per share and sales surpassed Wall Street’s expectations and they raised revenue guidance for earnings for next quarter. The only wrinkle was iPhone sales, which account for more than half of their revenue, came up slightly short of expectations. As of writing this the stock is up 2.50% and within a few cents of its all-time high.

The following table summarizes the FAANG’s stock performance since July 1, 2018.

Summary

Some of the Generals are flashing signs of weakness. That said, two weeks and one-quarter of earnings do not make a trend. Despite large price losses for two of the Generals, the S&P 500 took these drops and earnings announcements in stride. For the week of July 23-27, in which all but one of the FAANGs released earnings, the S&P 500 was up 0.61%.

Currently, we are focused on the price action of FB and NFLX. Given the “buy the dip” reflexivity that has pervaded the market and these stocks in particular, their price action in the weeks ahead will be telling. If they remain at current levels or drift lower, we would regard this as a signal that all is not well. On the other hand, if the FAANG stocks that are struggling start to recoup losses and resume their role leading the market higher again, we will have to wait on the wisdom of William O’Neill.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2Ax5a22 Tyler Durden

President Trump was later then normal to take to his Twitter account this morning, but nevertheless provided a triumvirate of tweets that doubled down on his views of the Russia probe and what should be done about it.

Trump began with a two-fer tweet, quoting Alan Dershowitz:

“FBI Agent Peter Strzok (on the Mueller team) should have recused himself on day one. He was out to STOP THE ELECTION OF DONALD TRUMP. He needed an insurance policy. Those are illegal, improper goals, trying to influence the Election. He should never, ever been allowed to remain in the FBI while he himself was being investigated. This is a real issue. It won’t go into a Mueller Report because Mueller is going to protect these guys. Mueller has an interest in creating the illusion of objectivity around his investigation.”

“FBI Agent Peter Strzok (on the Mueller team) should have recused himself on day one. He was out to STOP THE ELECTION OF DONALD TRUMP. He needed an insurance policy. Those are illegal, improper goals, trying to influence the Election. He should never, ever been allowed to……..

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 1, 2018

…..remain in the FBI while he himself was being investigated. This is a real issue. It won’t go into a Mueller Report because Mueller is going to protect these guys. Mueller has an interest in creating the illusion of objectivity around his investigation.” ALAN DERSHOWITZ….

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 1, 2018

And then Trump took aim at his own AG, demanding the probe be shut down “right now”…

..This is a terrible situation and Attorney General Jeff Sessions should stop this Rigged Witch Hunt right now, before it continues to stain our country any further. Bob Mueller is totally conflicted, and his 17 Angry Democrats that are doing his dirty work are a disgrace to USA!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 1, 2018

And cue the hysterical calls of “obstruction” from the liberal media and Chuck and Nancy.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2M6GPkN Tyler Durden

Day after day, the newly minted hordes of ‘Democratic Socialists’ proclaim “free stuff” for all as their platform to grabbing the greater fool’s marginal vote.

And finally, after Ocasio-Cortez’ embarrassing display of ignorance, Mike Shedlock notes, cost estimates for “free stuff” are pouring in. The sticker price for “Medicare for All” is shocking.

“Medicare for All” sounds great. And every unthinking socialist wants it. But here’s the deal: ‘Medicare for All’ Would Cost $32.6 Trillion Over 10 Years.

Sen. Bernie Sanders’ “Medicare for all” plan would boost government health spending by $32.6 trillion over 10 years, requiring historic tax hikes, says a study released Monday by a university-based libertarian policy center.

That’s trillion with a “T.”

The latest plan from the Vermont independent would deliver significant savings on administration and drug costs, but increased demand for care would drive up spending, according to the analysis by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Virginia. Doubling federal individual and corporate income tax receipts would not cover the full cost, the study said.

The Mercatus analysis estimated the 10-year cost of “Medicare for all” from 2022 to 2031, after an initial phase-in. Its findings are similar to those of several independent studies of Sanders’ 2016 plan. Those studies found increases in federal spending over 10 years that ranged from $24.7 trillion to $34.7 trillion.

Ron Paul raged on his Facebook page:  $32 Trillion! … that’s how much “FREE” costs.

Government intrusion (often welcomed by crony corporations) has ruined the healthcare industry in America.

The idea that government needs to go all the way with “FREE” care is preposterous, and deadly.

The solution is in the opposite direction.

Get government OUT of healthcare, and return it to the free marketplace.

*  *  *

Mish exclaims, I am not at all surprised by the estimated cost but I do have a question: How do we afford $3.4 trillion a year for 10 years of “free” stuff?

via RSS https://ift.tt/2n3EJYg Tyler Durden

As we noted here, the Treasury announced it would raise the amount of long-term debt it sells to $78 billion this quarter, up from $73 billion last quarter, while launching a new two-month bill. 

The surprise is that whereas consensus had expected 5-year auctions to increase by $1 billion in the quarter, the Treasury will now increase the auction amount by $1bn every month in the quarter, for a total of $3 billion, which in turn will put extra pressure on the belly of the curve.   

And that extra supply has prompted weakness across the Treasury curve, pushing 10Y Yields back above 3.00% for the first time since The Fed hiked rates in June…

And the yield curve is steepening…

All of this ahead of The Fed this afternoon.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2LHaCVg Tyler Durden

Earlier this week, the Treasury surprised the market and sent bond yields higher, when it unexpectedly reported that in the current quarter, US funding needs would increase by $56 billion to a $329 billion, and in the second half of the year will be the most since the financial crisis a decade ago, with the Treasury expecting to issue $769 billion in net marketable debt in the second half, the most since the financial crisis.

But how would the US Treasury adjust its debt auction pattern to fund this growing debt requirement?

We got the answer this morning, when in the quarterly refunding announcement, the Treasury announced it would raise the amount of long-term debt it sells to $78 billion this quarter, up from $73 billion last quarter, while launching a new two-month bill. The department is also extending out to the five-year maturity where it’s concentrating its increases to coupon-bearing debt.

The Treasury announced increases to nominal coupon auction sizes and FRNs over the upcoming quarter as follows: 

• Over the next three months, Treasury anticipates increasing the sizes of the 2-, 3-, and 5-year note auctions by $1 billion per month.  As a result, the size of 2-, 3-, and 5-year note auctions will increase by $3 billion, respectively, by the end of October. 
• In addition, Treasury will increase the auction size of the next 2-year FRN auction by $1 billion in August.
• Finally, Treasury will increase auction sizes by $1 billion to each of the next 7- and 10-year notes and the 30-year bond auctions in August, and hold the auction sizes steady at that level through October.

Here the surprise is that whereas consensus had expected 5-year auctions to increase by $1 billion in the quarter, the Treasury will now increase the auction amount by $1bn every month in the quarter, for a total of $3BN, which in turn will put extra pressure on the belly.

Specifically, the Treasury will sell $34 billion in three-year notes on Aug. 7, compared with $33 billion it sold last month and $31 billion in May. The 10-year note auction will be increased to 26 billion on Aug. 8, from $25 billion last quarter, and sell $18 billion in 30-year bonds on Aug. 9, up from $17 billion in May. The sales will raise new cash of $39.8 billion, according to Bloomberg.

The Treasury again left unchanged the size of TIPS auctions, and said it is studying whether to introduce a second new five-year TIPS to its auction calendar.

Furthermore, having previously disclosed plans to sell 2-Month Bills, today the Treasury unveiled plans to begin selling 2-month bills on October 15, and will settle on Tuesdays unlike the traditional bill settlement day of Thursday.  In order to enhance the liquidity of the new 2-month tenor, Treasury is also announcing changes to the 1-month bill auction cycle beginning in November. After a period of transition, 1-month bill will be a reopening of the 2-month and will also settle on Tuesdays. The TBAC also recommended new bill issuance be kept at “a quarter to a third of new issuance over the intermediate term.”

Given seasonal patterns, “bill supply is anticipated to gradually increase,” Treasury said. “This increased bill supply will include the launch of the new benchmark 2-month bill in October.” Treasury said it will meet any unexpected change in financing needs with increased bill sales.

Several other recommendations from the TBAC:

• Treasury should consider increasing TIPS issuance gradually over intermediate term so that they remain at about 7% of outstanding debt on average over time
• Noted that Treasury should “remain flexible given the substantial uncertainties in the outlook for financing needs over the next few years”
• Regarding 2-month bills, Treasury official briefing the TBAC emphasized the theme of auction sizes needing to be large enough to support market liquidity; committee agreed the 2-month bill should be “well received”
• On TIPS, the committee said further study and outreach by the Treasury is warranted

TBAC also discussed commercial bank demand for high quality liquid assets (HQLA) and the role Treasuries are likely to play in portfolios in the context of the Fed’s balance sheet normalization.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2vrDki1 Tyler Durden

Via Global Macro Monitor,

In case you missed Charlie B.’s excellent table from yesterday, which illustrates the S&P500 has not closed below its 200-day moving average in 526 days, here you go.

Stunning, especially given Joltin’ Joe’s hitting streak lasted 526 consecutive games.  Coincidence?   You decide.

We do have the S&P500 closing below its 200-day April 2, 2018, however.  Not the case for the exponential 200-day versus the simple 200-day,  but moving to the exponential opens up earlier days for such a breach.   The same holds for the  SPY, the S&P500 ETF.  We have the question into Charlie.

Even so, the simple 200-day has been the steel curtain of support for the stock market over the past two years.   The classic moving average took a massive pounding late March to early May yet still held, which we noted in our,  Stock Bull & Bear Traps Galore post in early May,

Relentless Pounding Of The 200-day Moving Average

A lower swing high, that is below 2.717,  will almost seal the fate the bears will take out the 200-day sometime very soon.  They have been relentlessly pounding the 200-day during this correction.

In bull markets, the 200-day may be tested maybe once or twice over a short period then bounce big and continue the uptrend.  Not test it every third day as it seems to be doing recently.

Some believe what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.

Personal character?  Absolutely.

Technical support levels?  We don’t think so.

Eventually,  the front line will crack, even if it is the robots defending it.  And, what if they decide to all retreat at the same time and go offer only, as they did in the flash crash?

When contemplating the constant hammering of the S&P500’s 200-day moving average, think the financial equivalent of Chairman Mao’s “human wave theory.”

“overwhelm the defenders by the sheer weight of numbers” – Wikipedia 

-Global Macro Monitor,  May 7

We concluded wrongly.   Thank you ‘bots, algos, machines, drones or whatever the hell you want to call them.

We do expect the 200-day to be breached  sometime before the year-end, however, with a higher probability of it happening in August or September.  In case you’re wondering, the current S&P simple 200-day is at 2698,  or about 4 ½ percent below today’s close.

Stay tuned.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2OviOWi Tyler Durden