Gartman: “A Global Bear Market Of Some Very Real Consequence Is Developing”

In retrospect, the bond rout which sent 10Y Treasury yields to the highest level since 2011 should have been obvious – after all just over a week ago, Dennis Gartman decided to go long “bonds and bond-link funds” in his retirement account, in addition to gold.

Alas, as so often happens, it didn’t turn out quite as expected, and as the world-renowned commodity guru writes in his note today, half of his bond holdings are now history”:

In our retirement account, we did take some action yesterday given the weakness in the US bond market following the surprisingly stout ADP report and we sold about half of our bond position right on the opening, and swapped that bond position for a position once again in the shares of the US largest producer of ball bearings… the ultimate stock of a company that produces “the things that if dropped on your foot shall hurt,” for what is more central to economic growth than ball bearings? We bought a correction and our risk is only to the lows of last week. We still retain other bond and/or bond like positions and we are still long of gold.

Perhaps that means that going forward the selling pressure on US Treasuries will be only half as big.  Sarcasm aside, for those algos who just need to know which way Gartman is leaning at any given moment, here are his latest market thoughts, which are – needless to say – a little confusing as on one hand he says that “a global bear market of some very real consequence is developing” and on the other “We are long of US shares via the S&P futures.”

STOCKS PRICES AROUND THE WORLD ARE VERY MARGINALLY WEAKER as our International Index has fallen a very modest 6 “points” or far less than 0.1% as 6 of the 9 markets that have been open in the past twenty-four hours have risen, but all of those six were higher by very marginal sums. The markets in Asia… and especially the market in Hong Kong…were weaker, with the latter falling well more than 1%.

In the end, this modest 6 “point” loss puts our Index down 181 points for the year-to-date, or -1.5% for the year; but as we’ve  been noting here on an all-too-regular-basis for the past several months, our index is now down a very material 881 “points” from its high made back in late January, or – 6.9%. Again, we tend to look upon 7% declines from interim peaks as evidence that a  bear market is extant just as we look to a 7% increase from an important interim low as evidence that the market has turned bullish in  the longer term. Given that only a few weeks ago our Index had fallen by well more than 7% from its peak and given that the markets are now in the process of revisiting that low, one cannot but think that a global bear market of some very real consequence is developing. 

We are long of US shares via the S&P futures and we are short of European shares via the EURO STOXX 50 futures and very fortunately since the inception of this trade late last week we’ve been materially profitable. Indeed, the only question facing us is when it is that we are to add to the position. As we said here yesterday, we shall wait for this trade to become materially extended in our favor and for the trade to then “suffer” its inevitable correction. It shall be into that correction that we shall add to the position and not a moment before then, barring surprises along the way.

Good luck.

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World Economy At Risk Of Another Financial Crash, IMF Warns

Authored by Phillip Inman via The Guardian,

Debt is above 2008 level and failure to reform banking system could trigger crisis…

The floor of the New York stock exchange in September 2008. Photograph: Richard Drew/AP

The world economy is at risk of another financial meltdown, following the failure of governments and regulators to push through all the reforms  needed to protect the system from reckless behaviour, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

With global debt levels well above those at the time of the last crash in 2008, the risk remains that unregulated parts of the financial system could trigger a global panic, the Washington-based lender of last resort said.

Much has been done to shore up the reserves of banks in the last 10 years and to put in place more rigorous oversight of the financial sector, but “risks tend to rise during good times, such as the current period of low interest rates and subdued volatility, and those risks can always migrate to new areas”, the IMF said, adding, “supervisors must remain vigilant to these unfolding events”.

A dramatic rise in lending by the so-called shadow banks in China and the failure to impose tough restrictions on insurance companies and asset managers, which handle trillions of dollars of funds, are highlighted by the IMF as causes for concern.

The growth of global banks such as JP Morgan and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to a scale beyond that seen in 2008, leading to fears that they remain “too big fail”, also registers on the IMF’s radar.

The warning from the IMF Global Financial Stability report echoes similar concerns that complacency among regulators and a backlash against international agreements, especially from Donald Trump’s US administration, has undermined efforts to prepare for another downturn.

The former UK prime minister Gordon Brown said last month that the world economy was “sleepwalking into a future crisis,” and risks were not being tackled now “we are in a leaderless world”.

Speaking this week before the fund’s forthcoming annual meeting – taking place next week on the Indonesian island of Bali – the IMF’s head, Christine Lagarde, said she was concerned that the total value of global debt, in both the public and private sectors, has rocketed by 60% in the decade since the financial crisis to reach an all-time high of $182tn (£139tn).

She said the build-up made developing world governments and companies more vulnerable to higher US interest rates, which could trigger a flight of funds and destabilise their economies. “This should serve as a wake-up call,” she said.

The stability report said the development of digital trading platforms and digital currencies such as bitcoin, along with other financial technology companies, had been rapid. It said:

“Despite its potential benefits, our knowledge of its potential risks and how they might play out is still developing. Increased cybersecurity risks pose challenges for financial institutions, financial infrastructure, and supervisors. These developments should act as a reminder that the financial system is permanently evolving, and regulators and supervisors must remain vigilant to this evolution and ready to act if needed.”

In a separate analysis, as part of the IMF’s annual economic outlook, it warned that “large challenges loom for the global economy to prevent a second Great Depression”.

It said the huge rise in borrowing by corporates and government at cheap interest rates had not shown up in higher levels of research and development or more general investment in infrastructure.

This trend since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which triggered the global financial crisis, had limited the growth potential of all countries and not just those which suffered the most in the aftermath of the crash. It had also left the global economy in a weaker position, especially as it enters a period when a downturn is possible.

The IMF said:

“The sequence of aftershocks and policy responses that followed the Lehman bankruptcy has led to a world economy in which the median general government debt-GDP ratio stands at 52%, up from 36% before the crisis; central bank balance sheets, particularly in advanced economies, are several multiples of the size they were before the crisis; and emerging market and developing economies now account for 60% of global GDP in purchasing-power-parity terms – which compares with 44% in the decade before the crisis – reflecting, in part, a weak recovery in advanced economies.”

Like many institutions the IMF has warned that rising levels of inequality have a negative impact on investment and productivity as wealthier groups hoard funds rather than re-invest them in productive parts of the economy. Without a rise in investment, economies remain vulnerable to financial stress.

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Why Traders Are “Whsipering” About A 500,000 Jobs Print Tomorrow

One of the key catalysts for yesterday’s dramatic spike in Trasury yields was the two-punch combo of surprisingly strong September ADP payrolls which came in at 230K (184K expected), and a blowout ISM non-manufacturing report, which printed at 61.6 (58.0 expected), which was the highest reading since August 1997, but it was the employment component which was the highlight of the report and drew traders’ attentions: at 62.4, it printed at the highest level on record.

Between the blockbuster ADP and ISM reports, and together with Fed Chair Powell’s surprisingly hawkish speech after hours, it is probably no wonder that yields moved up as much as they did: after all, if accurate these numbers suggest that the US economy is now well into “overheating” territory.

This morning, SocGen’s FX strategist Kit Juckes tried to put some numbers to this qualification, and in highlighting the ISM employment print, writes that “there’s a strong positive correlation between changes in private sector payrolls and the ISM non-manufacturing employment sub index, though the monthly miss can still be huge too.”

Putting the two series side by side, Juckes writes that “yesterday’s record 62.4 reading for the ISM employment component would ‘imply’ a 500k increase in private sector jobs, which would be the best since 1983.

This is shown in the chart below.

Juckes summarizes the potential for a blockbuster jobs report tomorrow as follows:

I don’t think we’re supposed to rush out and revise our forecasts for tomorrow’s data as a result, but the market will be braced for a strong outcome despite the potential drag from Hurricane Florence, and the underlying message is that the US economy isn’t just in fine fettle, it’s on fire. That has been enough to take 10year Note yields out of their recent range and to levels (2.23% and still rising) that we haven’t seen since 2011. Ed Chairman Powell acknowledges that the funds rate is likely to get above ‘neutral’ (i.e., above 3%) at some point, albeit slowly.

And with emerging markets cracking again as the dollar surges and yields soar sending EM currencies plunging, the cost of gasoline soaring and capital flowing out at an accelerating pace, tomorrow’s jobs report may just be one of the most important, if not for the US economy – which is still basking in the soft glow of Trump’s $1.5 trillion fiscal stimulus – then for the rest of the world, where any print even remotely close to 500,000 will unleash a new market tantrum and economic turmoil.

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The Case Against Government-Provided Paid Parental Leave: New at Reason

In recent months, a vocal group of conservatives has joined with Democrats in arguing that it’s time for the government to correct a blatant market failure: the private sector’s inability to provide sufficient paid leave. But as Veronique de Rugy explains, a government-provided solution on this issue won’t result in the proverbial free lunch that supporters hope for.

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3 Important Takeaways From The US Yield Shock

Via Bilal Hafeez at Nomura,

Many are likely to claim credit for calling the recent surge in UST 10yr yields. Not only that, but the reason for the move will vary…

Some will say it was due to strong US data or a hawkish Fed, others may attribute it to a return of term premia and others may point to technical factors such as heavy corporate issuance, mortgage convexity hedging or the blow-out in dollar funding basis. While there is some truth in each one of them, there are other more important takeaways from the move:

1. The market is pricing a higher neutral rate (r*). 

Both the real and nominal US real curve have steepened sharply. So the 5y5y US swap real yield has jumped and appears to be breaking out of its range of recent years (see Figure 2). This suggests the market could be pricing a higher neutral rate for the Fed or even a return to the pre-crisis regime. The fact that recent Fed speakers have softened their rhetoric on their own estimates of the neutral rate could have been the context for the market to decouple from previous guidance and try to establish a level.

In macro terms, we think it means the market is starting to price the end of the secular stagnation narrative, even before we have had time to see whether the US economy will be able to cope with the end of fiscal stimulus next year. Crucially, the rates markets are driving real yields higher, meaning tighter financial conditions now too.

2. Euro real yields have also moved.

While tempting to see recent rise as a uniquely US phenomenon – short-term euro real yields have also been moving. So while UST 10yr nominal yields are breaking to new highs – the real 2yr rate differential, a measure of relative monetary policy stances, between the euro area and the US is not breaking out (see Figure 3). In fact, that spread was moving significantly against the euro up until the summer, but recently has been consolidating. This suggests higher UST yields may not be a bullish dollar story against the euro.

3. The real story could be higher Japanese 10yr yields. 

Japanese yields have broken 15bp for the first time since early 2016. The BOJ’s scaling back of bond purchases, rising core inflation and concerns about the liquidity of the cash market have all been contributed to this rise. Now with global yields marching higher, Japanese rates could move further up. As a result, we are now in an environment where yields in the US, euro area and Japan are rising in unison.

This like the rise in UST real yields does not augur well for risk markets. More specifically for fall-out from higher yen rates, crosses such as AUD/JPY could increasingly come under pressure as Japan’s search for yields overseas starts to wane (see Figure 4 above).

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Explosive Report Details Chinese Infiltration Of Apple, Amazon And The CIA

One week ago, President Trump stood up at a meeting of the United Nations Security Council and accused China of attempting to tamper with US elections – mimicking some of the same allegations that had first been levied against Russia nearly two years prior. In his speech, Trump claimed that China was working to undermine Republicans, and even the president himself, warning that “it’s not just Russia, it’s China and Russia.” While the media largely shrugged off this proclamation as more presidential bombast probably inspired by the burgeoning US-China trade beef, the administration continued to insist that it was taking a harder line against Chinese efforts to subvert American companies to aide the Communist Party’s sprawling intelligence apparatus. As if to underline Trump’s point, the FBI had arrested a Taiwanese national in Chicago the day before Trump’s speech, accusing the 27-year-old suspect of trying to help China flip eight defense contractors who could have provided crucial intelligence on sensitive defense-related technology.

But in a game-changing report published Thursday morning, Bloomberg Businessweek exposed a sprawling multi-year investigation into China’s infiltration of US corporate and defense infrastructure. Most notably, it confirmed that, in addition to efforts designed to sway US elections, China’ intelligence community orchestrated a pervasive infiltration of servers used to power everything from MRI machines to the drones used by the CIA and army. They accomplished this using a tiny microchip no bigger than a grain of rice.

BBG published the report just hours before Vice President Mike Pence was expected to “string together a narrative of Chinese aggression” during a speech at the Hudson Institute in Washington. According to excerpts leaked to the New York Times, his speech was expected to focus on examples of China’s “aggressive moves against American warships, of predatory behavior against their neighbors, and of a sophisticated influence campaign to tilt the midterms and 2020 elections against President Trump”. His speech is also expected to focus on how China leverages debt and its capital markets to force foreign governments to submit to its will (something that has happened in Bangladesh and the Czech Republic.

China

But while those narratives are certainly important, they pale in comparison to Bloomberg’s revelations, which reported on an ongoing government investigation into China’s use of a “tiny microchip” that found its way into servers that were widely used throughout the US military and intelligence infrastructure, from Navy warships to DoD server farms. The probe began three years ago after the US intelligence agencies were tipped off by Amazon. And three years later, it remains ongoing.

Nested on the servers’ motherboards, the testers found a tiny microchip, not much bigger than a grain of rice, that wasn’t part of the boards’ original design. Amazon reported the discovery to U.S. authorities, sending a shudder through the intelligence community. Elemental’s servers could be found in Department of Defense data centers, the CIA’s drone operations, and the onboard networks of Navy warships. And Elemental was just one of hundreds of Supermicro customers.

During the ensuing top-secret probe, which remains open more than three years later, investigators determined that the chips allowed the attackers to create a stealth doorway into any network that included the altered machines. Multiple people familiar with the matter say investigators found that the chips had been inserted at factories run by manufacturing subcontractors in China.

With those two paragraphs, Bloomberg has succeeded in shifting the prevailing narrative away from Russia and toward China. Or, as Pence is expected to state in Thursday’s speech (via NYT) “as a senior career member of our intelligence community recently told me, what the Russians are doing pales in comparison to what China is doing across this country.”

The story begins with a Silicon Valley startup called Elemental. Founded in 2006 by three engineers who brilliantly anticipated that broadcasters would soon be searching for a way to adapt their programming for streaming over the Internet, and on mobile devices like smartphones, Elemental went about building a “dream team” of coders who designed software to adapt the super-fast graphics chips being designed for video gaming to stream video instead. The company then loaded this software on to special, custom-built servers emblazoned with its logo. These servers then sold for as much as $100,000 a pop – a markup of roughly 70%.  In 2009, the company received its first contract with US defense and intelligence contractors, and even received an investment from a CIA-backed venture fund.

  • Elemental also started working with American spy agencies. In 2009 the company announced a development partnership with In-Q-Tel Inc., the CIA’s investment arm, a deal that paved the way for Elemental servers to be used in national security missions across the U.S. government. Public documents, including the company’s own promotional materials, show that the servers have been used inside Department of Defense data centers to process drone and surveillance-camera footage, on Navy warships to transmit feeds of airborne missions, and inside government buildings to enable secure videoconferencing. NASA, both houses of Congress, and the Department of Homeland Security have also been customers. This portfolio made Elemental a target for foreign adversaries.

Like many other companies, Elementals’ servers utilized motherboards built by Supermicro, which dominates the market for motherboards used in special-purpose computers. It was here, at Supermicro, where the government believes – according to Bloomberg’s sources – that the infiltration began. Before it came to dominate the global market for computer motherboards, Supermicro had humble beginnings. A Taiwanese engineer and his wife founded the company in 1993, at a time when Silicon Valley was embracing outsourcing. It attracted clients early on with the promise of infinite customization, employing a massive team of engineers to make sure it could accommodate its clients’ every need. Customers also appreciated that, while Supermicro’s motherboards were assembled in China or Taiwan, its engineers were based in Silicon Valley. But the company’s workforce featured one characteristic that made it uniquely attractive to China: A sizable portion of its engineers were native Mandarin speakers. One of Bloomberg’s sources said the government is still investigating whether spies were embedded within Supermicro or other US companies).

But however it was done, these tiny microchips somehow found their way into Supermicro’s products. Bloomberg provided a step-by-step guide detailing how it believes that happened.

  • A Chinese military unit designed and manufactured microchips as small as a sharpened pencil tip. Some of the chips were built to look like signal conditioning couplers, and they incorporated memory, networking capability, and sufficient processing power for an attack.
  • The microchips were inserted at Chinese factories that supplied Supermicro, one of the world’s biggest sellers of server motherboards.
  • The compromised motherboards were built into servers assembled by Supermicro.
  • The sabotaged servers made their way inside data centers operated by dozens of companies.
  • When a server was installed and switched on, the microchip altered the operating system’s core so it could accept modifications. The chip could also contact computers controlled by the attackers in search of further instructions and code.

In espionage circles, infiltrating computer hardware – especially to the degree that the Chinese did – is extremely difficult to pull off. And doing it at the nation-state level would be akin to “a unicorn jumping over a rainbow,” as one of BBG’s anonymous sources put it. But China’s dominance of the market for PCs and mobile phones allows it a massive advantage.

One country in particular has an advantage executing this kind of attack: China, which by some estimates makes 75 percent of the world’s mobile phones and 90 percent of its PCs. Still, to actually accomplish a seeding attack would mean developing a deep understanding of a product’s design, manipulating components at the factory, and ensuring that the doctored devices made it through the global logistics chain to the desired location – a feat akin to throwing a stick in the Yangtze River upstream from Shanghai and ensuring that it washes ashore in Seattle. “Having a well-done, nation-state-level hardware implant surface would be like witnessing a unicorn jumping over a rainbow,” says Joe Grand, a hardware hacker and the founder of Grand Idea Studio Inc. “Hardware is just so far off the radar, it’s almost treated like black magic.”

But that’s just what U.S. investigators found: The chips had been inserted during the manufacturing process, two officials say, by operatives from a unit of the People’s Liberation Army. In Supermicro, China’s spies appear to have found a perfect conduit for what U.S. officials now describe as the most significant supply chain attack known to have been carried out against American companies.

Some more details from the report are summarized below:

The government found that the infiltration extended to nearly 30 companies, including Amazon and Apple.

  • One official says investigators found that it eventually affected almost 30 companies, including a major bank, government contractors, and the world’s most valuable company, Apple Inc. Apple was an important Supermicro customer and had planned to order more than 30,000 of its servers in two years for a new global network of data centers. Three senior insiders at Apple say that in the summer of 2015, it, too, found malicious chips on Supermicro motherboards. Apple severed ties with Supermicro the following year, for what it described as unrelated reasons.

Both Amazon and Apple denied having knowledge of the infiltration (Amazon eventually acquired Elemental and integrated it into its Amazon Prime Video service). Meanwhile, the Chinese government issued a conspicuous non-denial denial.

  • In emailed statements, Amazon (which announced its acquisition of Elemental in September 2015), Apple, and Supermicro disputed summaries of Bloomberg Businessweek’s reporting. “It’s untrue that AWS knew about a supply chain compromise, an issue with malicious chips, or hardware modifications when acquiring Elemental,” Amazon wrote. “On this we can be very clear: Apple has never found malicious chips, ‘hardware manipulations’ or vulnerabilities purposely planted in any server,” Apple wrote. “We remain unaware of any such investigation,” wrote a spokesman for Supermicro, Perry Hayes. The Chinese government didn’t directly address questions about manipulation of Supermicro servers, issuing a statement that read, in part, “Supply chain safety in cyberspace is an issue of common concern, and China is also a victim.” The FBI and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, representing the CIA and NSA, declined to comment.

Bloomberg based its story on interviews with 17 anonymous sources, including 6 former government intelligence officials. One official told BBG that China’s long-term goal was “long-term access” to sensitive government secrets.

  • In all, 17 people confirmed the manipulation of Supermicro’s hardware and other elements of the attacks. The sources were granted anonymity because of the sensitive, and in some cases classified, nature of the information.
  • The companies’ denials are countered by six current and former senior national security officials, who – in conversations that began during the Obama administration and continued under the Trump administration – detailed the discovery of the chips and the government’s investigation. One of those officials and two people inside AWS provided extensive information on how the attack played out at Elemental and Amazon; the official and one of the insiders also described Amazon’s cooperation with the government investigation. In addition to the three Apple insiders, four of the six U.S. officials confirmed that Apple was a victim. In all, 17 people confirmed the manipulation of Supermicro’s hardware and other elements of the attacks. The sources were granted anonymity because of the sensitive, and in some cases classified, nature of the information.

One government official says China’s goal was long-term access to high-value corporate secrets and sensitive government networks. No consumer data is known to have been stolen.

Notably, this revelation provides even more support to the Trump administration’s insistence that the trade war with China was based on national security concerns. The hope is that more US companies will shift production of sensitive components back to the US.

  • The ramifications of the attack continue to play out. The Trump administration has made computer and networking hardware, including motherboards, a focus of its latest round of trade sanctions against China, and White House officials have made it clear they think companies will begin shifting their supply chains to other countries as a result. Such a shift might assuage officials who have been warning for years about the security of the supply chain—even though they’ve never disclosed a major reason for their concerns.

As one government official reminds us, the extent of this attack cannot be understated.

  • With more than 900 customers in 100 countries by 2015, Supermicro offered inroads to a bountiful collection of sensitive targets. “Think of Supermicro as the Microsoft of the hardware world,” says a former U.S. intelligence official who’s studied Supermicro and its business model. “Attacking Supermicro motherboards is like attacking Windows. It’s like attacking the whole world.”

But perhaps the most galling aspect of this whole scandal is that the Obama Administration should have seen it coming.

  • Well before evidence of the attack surfaced inside the networks of U.S. companies, American intelligence sources were reporting that China’s spies had plans to introduce malicious microchips into the supply chain. The sources weren’t specific, according to a person familiar with the information they provided, and millions of motherboards are shipped into the U.S. annually. But in the first half of 2014, a different person briefed on high-level discussions says, intelligence officials went to the White House with something more concrete: China’s military was preparing to insert the chips into Supermicro motherboards bound for U.S. companies.

And thanks to Obama having dropped the ball, China managed to pull off the most expansive infiltration of the global supply chain ever discovered by US intelligence.

  • But that’s just what U.S. investigators found: The chips had been inserted during the manufacturing process, two officials say, by operatives from a unit of the People’s Liberation Army. In Supermicro, China’s spies appear to have found a perfect conduit for what U.S. officials now describe as the most significant supply chain attack known to have been carried out against American companies.

The inconspicuous-looking chips were disguised to look like regular components but they helped China open doors that “other hackers could go through” meaning China could potentially manipulate sensitive defense-related operations.

  • The chips on Elemental servers were designed to be as inconspicuous as possible, according to one person who saw a detailed report prepared for Amazon by its third-party security contractor, as well as a second person who saw digital photos and X-ray images of the chips incorporated into a later report prepared by Amazon’s security team. Gray or off-white in color, they looked more like signal conditioning couplers, another common motherboard component, than microchips, and so they were unlikely to be detectable without specialized equipment. Depending on the board model, the chips varied slightly in size, suggesting that the attackers had supplied different factories with different batches.
  • Officials familiar with the investigation say the primary role of implants such as these is to open doors that other attackers can go through. “Hardware attacks are about access,” as one former senior official puts it. In simplified terms, the implants on Supermicro hardware manipulated the core operating instructions that tell the server what to do as data move across a motherboard, two people familiar with the chips’ operation say. This happened at a crucial moment, as small bits of the operating system were being stored in the board’s temporary memory en route to the server’s central processor, the CPU. The implant was placed on the board in a way that allowed it to effectively edit this information queue, injecting its own code or altering the order of the instructions the CPU was meant to follow. Deviously small changes could create disastrous effects.

Shortly after the report was published, the US Department of Defense has scheduled a national-security related press conference for 9:30 am ET on Thursday. It didn’t reveal the subject of the briefing, but the timing is certainly suspicious…

But regardless of what is said on Thursday, one thing probably won’t change: Expect to hear a lot less about Russia, and a lot more about China as the deep state’s interference myopic focus on the former shifts to the latter. As Kevin Warsh framed the question during a Thursday interview with CNBC where he asked “are we at the beginning of a 20-year Cold War?” in response to a question about curbing China’s influence – both economically and defensively. We imagine we’ll be hearing a lot more about the breach from senior US officials, including both the vice president and the president himself, in the very near future.

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JPMorgan Downgrades China Stocks, Forecasting “Full-Blown Trade War”

Late last week, JPMorgan’s strategist John Normand announced that the largest US bank “adopted a new baseline that assumes a US-China endgame involving 25% US tariffs on all Chinese goods in 2019” because “the US and China will not resolve their differences this year and that the Administration will make good on its threats to escalate.” Such a full-blown trade war “could take $8 off consensus 2019 EPS projections of $179 and reduce next year’s EPS growth from 10% to 5% year-on-year” with JPMorgan predicting that this could “potentially end the US stock market rally even assuming a forward multiple of 17, unless some other offset materializes.”

JPMorgan wasn’t finished, however, and around 2pm on Wednesday, JPMorgan took its “new baseline” call further when it announced that as a result of its new baseline assumption for a “full-blown trade war” next year between the world’s two largest economies, the bank downgraded its bullish call on Chinese stocks. Echoing what it said previously in the context of US stocks, JPMorgan strategists including Pedro Martins Junior, Rajiv Batra and Sanaya Tavaria wrote that the trade conflict will only escalate as the U.S. maxes out tariffs on Chinese imports, the dollar strengthens and the yuan weakens further.

JPMorgan became only the latest bank to downgrade Chinese stocks – which earlier in 2018 slumped into a bear market as a result of trade war fears and a sharp slowdown in China’s economy as a result of the crackdown on shadow credit – following similar moves by Morgan Stanley, Nomura and Jefferies earlier this year.

Curiously, while JPMorgan slashed its target and earnings estimates for the MSCI China Index which was already down 24% from its peak in January, the strategists still expect the gauge to rebound 8.9% from Wednesday’s close.

“A full-blown trade war becomes our new base case scenario for 2019,” the strategists wrote in a note dated Wednesday, replicating the language we highlighted over the weekend. “There is no clear sign of mitigating confrontation between China and the U.S. in the near term.”

JPM also revised its forecast for economic growth in China next year to 6.1% from 6.2%, and said that without accounting for countermeasures such as more fiscal or monetary stimulus, the trade war represents a 1% hit to growth.

“Higher tariffs are squeezing Chinese manufacturing’s profit margin, reducing the investment incentive and hiring, which would then drag on consumption via reduced income.”

Tensions with China have deteriorated sharply in recent days, and in addition to the escalating trade war which recently saw the US impose 10% tariffs on $200BN of Chinese imports, we have seen the following events take place in recent days:

  • Pence is expected to lay out allegations of Chinese election-meddling in an 11am speech at the Hudson Institute later today
  • A CNN report about the U.S. proposing a “major show of force” to warn China
  • Jack Ma’s comments that the U.S.-China trade war could last 20 years, and then this: “When trade stops, sometimes the war starts. So trade is the way to stop wars.”
  • A Bloomberg scoop that a China hack has infiltrated several top U.S. companies

What was most interesting from the JPM announcement, is that with Chinese mainland markets shut all week for a holiday, traders took to punishing the iShares China Large-Cap ETF, which dropped to a two-week low in New York as shown below.

And, according to some analysts, yesterday’s sharp, late day selloff in US stocks may have been precipitated by precisely this sudden reversal in sentiment vis-a-vis China as suddenly the realization that trade war with China is actually going to have stock market casualties.

 

 

 

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On NAFTA, Trump Averts the Danger He Created: New at Reason

As a candidate, Donald Trump reserved special disgust for NAFTA, which he called “the worst trade deal maybe ever.” He vowed that he would withdraw if Mexico and Canada wouldn’t accept major changes. As president, he repeated his threats, raising fears among automakers and other companies that their carefully constructed transnational supply chains would be tied in knots.

But last month, observes Steve Chapman, the administration reached an agreement with the Mexican government, allowing Trump to crow about his deal-making prowess. “A lot of people thought we’d never get here,” he said. Letting Trump conduct negotiations with foreign governments is like leaving teenagers unsupervised at home for a weekend. You don’t expect to find the place in better condition when you return; you just hope it hasn’t burned down. It came as a relief that Trump averted the disaster he had threatened to unleash.

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Peter Schiff: “We’re On The Precipice Of A Much Bigger Crisis Than The Last One”

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Money manager Peter Schiff was in a small group warning of a coming financial meltdown that happened in 2008.

Schiff says, “I was kind of a fixture on financial cable TV giving these warnings. My thought was the bubble would burst, and I knew that it would…”

Once the housing bubble burst and we had this financial crisis, I knew it would follow along with the Great Recession. I thought the Federal Reserve would try the best it could to reflate the bubbles in the stock markets and housing markets. But my thought was that their efforts would fail. The markets would not allow it and that a dollar collapse would intervene and would prevent new debt from being issued to fully reflate those bubbles. I was actually wrong. They didn’t just try to reflate the bubbles, they actually succeeded in blowing them bigger than ever.”

Ten years later, Schiff is warning of another financial calamity bigger than the last one.

Schiff says, “The problem is now we are on the precipice of a much bigger crisis than before...”

The next time, if they try to reflate those bubbles, which they will, it will be a spectacular failure because the markets are now prepared for the opposite. Everybody, right now, assumes the Fed is going to be able to keep raising rates. They assume they are going to shrink its balance sheet and that we have this booming economy that will never bust.

When the Fed has to reverse course abruptly, acknowledge the underlying weakness that everybody has been oblivious to and they start cutting rates and launching another round of quantitative easing (money printing), I think the dollar is going to fall through the floor. I think the inflationary fires that are already burning pretty hot are going to ignite. It’s not going to be like 2008 where the dollar went up and consumer prices inched down a little bit. I think the dollar is going to tank and consumer prices are going to soar, and it’s going to be stagflation. When the markets get a whiff of that, they are not going to like the way it smells.

It is going to create a dollar crisis. I think the Fed has put itself between a rock and a hard place. There is no way out this time… This time, you really have to be positioned because this time is going to be the end of it. This is not going to be a hat trick or third time is a charm when it comes to reflating these bubbles.

On gold, Schiff contends, “People are going to be dumping their dollars and buying gold…”

If you understood what the Fed was doing, you would be buying gold, but most people don’t understand. You can look at what has happened to gold prices in terms of other currencies, such as emerging markets. Obviously, gold prices in those countries measured in those currencies have gone up dramatically. So, gold has acted as a store of value and a store of purchasing power in every country where the currency has come down.

The same thing is going to hold true of the United States…We could do a reset. We could go back to sound money. We could go back on a gold standard, and we could devalue the dollar officially. I don’t know exactly how high the price of gold would have to be, $10,000 per ounce, $20,000 per ounce, who knows, but there is a price where we could go back to a gold standard. If we want to stay on a gold standard, that means the government would have to live within its means. That’s why governments hate gold standards because it provides discipline to government.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Peter Schiff, founder of Euro Pacific Capital and Schiff Gold.

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US Sanctions Against Russia Are “A Colossal Strategic Mistake”, Putin Warns

As Russia is preparing plans to wean its banking system off the dollar, advancing a trend of de-dollarization among the US’s largest economic and geopolitical rivals, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Washington of making a “colossal” but “typical” mistake by exploiting the dominance of the dollar by levying economic sanctions against regimes that don’t bow to its whims.

“It seems to me that our American partners make a colossal strategic mistake,” Putin said.

“This is a typical mistake of any empire,” Putin said, explaining that the US is ignoring the consequences of its actions because its economy is strong and the dollar’s hegemonic grasp on global markets remains intact. However “the consequences come sooner or later.”

These remarks echoed a sentiment expressed by Putin back in May, when he said that Russia can no longer trust the US dollar because of America’s decisions to impose unilateral sanctions and violate WTO rules.

While Putin’s criticisms are hardly new, these latest remarks happen to follow a report in the Financial Times, published Tuesday night, detailing Russia’s efforts to wean its economy off of the dollar. The upshot is that while de-dollarization may be painful, it is, ultimately doable.

The US imposed another round of sanctions against Russia over the summer in response to the poisoning of former double-agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia, and the US Senate is considering measures that would effectively cut Russia’s biggest banks off from the dollar and largely exclude Moscow from foreign debt markets.

Putin

With the possibility of being cut off from the dollar system looming, a plan prepared by Andrei Kostin, the head of Russian bank VTB, is being embraced by much of the Russian establishment. Kostin’s plan would facilitate the conversion of dollar settlements into other currencies which would help wean Russian industries off the dollar. And it already has the backing of Russia’s finance ministry, central bank and Putin.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin is also working on deals with major trading partners to accept the Russian ruble for imports and exports.

In a sign that a united front is forming to help undermine the dollar, Russia’s efforts have been readily embraced by China and Turkey, which is unsurprising, given their increasingly fraught relationships with the US. During joint military exercises in Vladivostok last month, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that their countries would work together to counter US tariffs and sanctions.

“More and more countries, not only in the east but also in Europe, are beginning to think about how to minimise dependence on the US dollar,” said Dmitry Peskov, Mr Putin’s spokesperson. “And they suddenly realise that a) it is possible, b) it needs to be done and c) you can save yourself if you do it sooner.”

Still, there’s no question that US sanctions have damaged Russia’s currency and contributed to a rise in borrowing costs. And whether Russia – which relies heavily on energy exports – can convince buyers of its oil and natural gas to accept payment in rubles remains an open question. Increased trade with China and other Asian countries has helped reduce Russia’s dependence on the dollar. But the greenback still accounted for 68% of Russia’s payment inflow.

Trade

But, as Putin has repeatedly warned, that won’t stop them from trying. The fact is that Russia is a major exporter, with a trade surplus of $115 billion last year. As the FT pointed out, Russia’s metals, grain, oil and gas are consumed around the world – even in the west, despite the tensions surrounding Russia’s alleged involvement in the Skripal poisoning and its annexation of Crimea.

To be sure, abandoning the dollar as the currency of choice for oil-related payments would be no easy feat. But China has already taken the first step and show that it can be done by launching a yuan-denominated futures contract that trades in Shanghai – striking the most significant blow to date against the petrodollar’s previously unchallenged dominance.

That should embolden Putin to continue with his experiment – not that the US is leaving him much choice.

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