Month: November 2018

Democrats won the House. Republicans expanded their majority in the Senate.

Votes are still being counted on the West Coast and we won’t have the final numbers for the Democrats’ new House majority until tomorrow (and possibly longer, depending on recounts), but it looks like the Republicans could end up with 55 of the 100 seats in the Senate.

As election results go, that’s about the best possible outcome. Not only that, but it’s an outcome that allows, for one night at least, the faintest hope that the crazy train of American politics over the past two years may be slowing to a more sensible pace.

It’s been clear for some time now that congressional Republicans were either unwilling or unable—probably both—to be a meaningful check on the Trump administration. Regardless of how you might feel about the Trump’s relationship with Russia (or how that relationship might have affected the 2016 election, or the ongoing Mueller investigation), there’s no denying that many other aspects of Trump’s personal and professional finances deserve more scrutiny than they’ve received. Beyond that, his expansive and blunt use of of executive power to restrict immigration and impose tariffs deserves oversight from Congress. While Democrats may also be incapable (or unwilling) to grapple with Trump on policy issues, they can be no worse than House Republicans have been.

Meanwhile, the GOP’s larger majority in the Senate effectively closes the door to any of the Democrats’ more radical policy plans. It means Republicans will be able to confirm additional Trump-appointed judges to the Supreme Court, should another vacancy open up. And it will relieve the pressure on Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R–Ky.) to abolish the legislative filibuster—a maneuver that would almost surely be a mistake in the long run, just as Democrats have quickly come to regret doing away with the filibuster for judicial nominations.

Indeed, Republicans in the Senate deserve some praise for the role they’ve played in constraining Trump during his first two years in office. As Ross Douthat noted last week in the pages of The New York Times, the House had been more “pure, uncut MAGA, more reflexive in its defense of a president whose behavior is often indefensible, more poisoned by the worst Trumpist tendencies.”

Even with the loss of senators like the late John McCain (R–Ariz.) and the retiring Jeff Flake (R–Ariz.) and Bob Corker (R–Tenn.)—three Republicans who served as the primary check against a Senate GOP sliding towards Trumpism—the slightly larger majority may give McConnell a freer hand in negotiations with the White House.

The outcome may also cause Democrats to reexamine their leftward lurch. Winning the Senate in two or four years will require the party to appeal to red state voters, which should bolster the party’s battered moderate wing. And no, it is unfortunately not too early to be talking or thinking about 2020 or 2022.

The run-up to the 2020 presidential election will begin sooner than anyone really wants—and it will be terrible and divisive and bitter. But in the meantime, a split Congress is the best hope for anyone who’s not an unrepentent MAGA-head or outright Democratic Socialist. Whether American politics are chilling out a little bit or the crazies on both sides are now simply cancelling each other out, a stalemate will be a welcome reprieve.

Already, the talking heads on CNN are worrying about complete gridlock in the wake of tonight’s election. But the American people appear to have decided that gridlock is preferrable to allowing Trump to run rampant or handing both chambers to the Democrats.

Neither major party can claim to have a mandate in Washington, D.C., right now. That sounds just fine.

Bethany Baldes, a Libertarian Party state House candidate in Wyoming’s District 55, got so close to defeating incumbent Republican David Miller, who is the House majority leader and has held the seat ever since 2000, that until the absentee ballots were counted local news outlet County 10 was reporting a 54–46 percent win for her. I even erroneously tweeted that news with an announcement of her victory.

Alas, after the absentee votes were counted, what had been a raw vote total of 1,306 to 1,112 for Baldes became a 1,645–1,592 win for incumbent Miller.

The near-win was the fruit of a strategy pushed by Apollo Pazell, a campaign adviser with the national Libertarian Party. “We need to create a narrative of wins,” he said in a phone interview last month. To begin that narrative, he thought the L.P. should find races where the total number of votes needed to win was small and there was only one major party opponent, then find a good candidate with strong local roots, and dig in with retail campaigning.

Baldes, a fifth-generation Wyoming woman, was someone who was “part of the day-to-day life of this small town, and they didn’t ever see David Miller,” Pazell said. Miller didn’t even spend all year in the state, Pazell said, and returned only late in the game to do any campaigning.

Baldes injured her leg during the course of the campaign and had to be wheelchaired or hobble on crutches to personally campaign, which she did. Pazell led a team of six volunteers working full-time for four weeks to hit each and every door in her district, centered on the city of Riverton, three times.

Baldes sought and received endorsements from the majority of the Riverton City Council, the county attorney, and more than one former mayor. A couple of weeks before tonight’s squeaker, Pazell said they already had over 250 signs up in a town of about 2,500 houses, and had run three local radio ads.

While Pazell says they did not necessarily fly the Libertarian label all the time, neither did they shy away from it. (It did appear, albeit not very large, on some of the mailers for the campaign I saw.) Pazell says it was often a benefit in this race, as having been a Democrat might have gotten doors slammed in their face in the current political climate. Hearing Baldes was a Libertarian was actually “often incredibly disarming” to voters, Pazell says, though he grants that won’t be true in all districts at all times, but “this time it was seen as an asset.”

Pazell detailed in last month’s phone interview a multi-layered campaign starting with overall voter data, followed by a generic first round of door-knocks to learn more about specific voters’ concerns and attitudes. That resulted in six separate mailers for six distinct groups and get out the vote reminders. The campaign raised around $6,000, which is a big deal for a Wyoming state race, he says.

One of the mailers emphasized that “Bethany served six years in the Wyoming National Guard. She currently serves on the Riverton Parks Committee and the Board of Directors for the Riverton Children’s Museum. She is dedicated to diversifying our economy, opposes a state income tax, advocates for local health care access, and is a very active part of our community. Bethany will spend time in the community discussing the needs of our neighbors.”

Another such mailer was more policy-based, noting that “I want to see more money stay in the hands of the hard working men and women of Wyoming. A Diverse economy does not require higher taxes, as my opponent claims, The best way to diversify our economy is to empower Wyomingites to invest in their communities and their families. While I advocate for reduced regulations on agriculture, tourism, and crowd-sourced industries, my opponent stands in the way of a better economy and more jobs! We need a budget hawk in office who is watching out for your money….”

Miller had generally run unopposed in his 18 years in the House. Baldes and a Democrat went up against him in 2012. Neither she nor the Democrat did any real campaign work or spending at all, yet they still reduced Miller to just 58 percent of the vote. This time she came within 60 votes of victory.

On Tuesday voters in Utah approved a ballot measure that allows patients to use marijuana as a medicine if their doctors approve it. Proposition 2, which was favored by 54 percent of voters with two-thirds of precincts reporting, makes Utah the 33rd state to allow medical use of cannabis.

Proposition 2 authorizes the production and distribution of marijuana for patients with qualifying conditions and recommendations from their doctors. The Utah Department of Health is supposed to start issuing medical marijuana cards to patients by March 1, 2020. Dispensaries will initially be capped at 15 statewide. As of 2021, state-approved patients will be allowed to grow up to six plants at home if they do not live within 100 miles of a licensed dispensary.

The specifically identified qualifying conditions are cancer, HIV or AIDS, Alzheimer’s disease, amytrophic lateral sclerosis, cachexia or other wasting diseases, nausea or malnutrition associated with chronic disease, gastrointestinal disorders such as Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis, epilepsy or other seizure disorders, multiple sclerosis or other conditions causing muscle spasms, post-traumatic stress disorder, autism, “any rare condition or disease affecting less than 200,000 individuals in the U.S.,” and “chronic or debilitating pain if a physician determines that the individual is at risk of becoming dependent on or overdosing on opiate pain medication or is otherwise unable to use opiates.” The Department of Health can add conditions to the list based on the recommendations of a Compassionate Use Board.

Under Proposition 2, Medical marijuana cardholders will be allowed to buy up to two ounces of buds (or other marijuana products containing no more than 10 grams of THC or cannabidiol) every two weeks. They will not be allowed to smoke marijuana, but vaping and edibles are OK. Medical marijuana is exempt from state and local sales taxes.

Utah is the third red state to legalize medical marijuana this year, following Oklahoma, where an initiative passed last June, and Missouri, where voters approved one earlier on Tuesday. The success of the Utah measure is especially striking because it was opposed by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, which deemed the rules too loose. About 63 percent of Utah residents were LDS members as of 2014.

The Salt Lake Tribune reports that “state legislators are expected to overwrite Prop 2,” a prospect welcomed by the LDS church. “Our expectation is that prompt legislative action will address the shortfalls of the initiative,” Marty Stephens, the church’s director of community and government relations, said in a press release. “The legislative alternative is better public policy and has broad support among Utahns.”

It’s ending up being the kind of election where everybody declares victory. President Donald Trump earlier tweeted what he saw as a “success” in the election, probably due to the Republican Party’s strong showing in the Senate elections. Meanwhile Democrats are celebrating their House win.

This post is being updated throughout the night as results come in.

Update (12:30 a.m.): Some odds and ends as the election coverage winds down.

Senate: Former Florida Republican Gov. Rick Scott seems poised to take incumbent Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson’s seat, further securing the GOP control over the Senate. In Arizona, Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema are in a near-tie. In New Mexico, Gary Johnson did not turn out to be anything like a spoiler as a Libertarian Party candidate as Democratic incumbent Sen. Martin Heinrich easily kept his seat. But Johnson did get 15 percent of the vote. Thanks to California’s top-two election system, Sen. Dianne Feinstein is fending off a fellow Democrat, but so far she appears to be winning.

House: Democratic control of the House is near-certain. Only one seat has so far shifted in favor of the Republicans. In Maine, the state’s new ranked choice voting system may affect the outcome of the vote to represent the state’s Second District. Republican Bruce Poliquin currently leads a four-person race, but he doesn’t have 50 percent of the vote. If that stands, there will be an instant runoff tally that could change the results (and not in his favor). Details on how Maine’s ranked-choice system works can be found here. And Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) had been behind his Democratic challenger, but he appears to be recovering to keep his seat.

Ballot initiatives: California can be slow to count its ballot initiatives. Currently an economically illiterate effort to expand rent control in the state is failing (thank heavens). But so is an attempt to repeal some of the state’s super high gas taxes. Oregon voters appear to be rejecting an effort to repeal its “sanctuary state” law that stops law enforcement there from arresting people for the sole crime of being in the country illegally. And Washington State voters appear to be poised to change the state’s laws on police deadly force that keeps prosecutors from charging officers with crimes for killing people in the line of duty unless they can show malice or evil intent, as opposed to just recklessness or incompetence.

UPDATE (11:45 p.m.):

“Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!” Trump tweeted.

In the Senate, Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley will defeat incumbent Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill as Republicans continue to defend their majority. Elsewhere, Republican Rep. Martha McSally has a narrow lead over Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona. Democrats have yet to flip a GOP-held Senate seat.

CNN has finally called the Florida gubernatorial race for Ron DeSantis. In Michigan, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer will easily defeat Republican Bill Schuette. It’s the first time Michigan will have a Democratic governor in eight years. Democrat Tony Evers, meanwhile, it beating incumbent Republican Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker by less than 3,000 votes, with about 75 percent of the vote in.

In the House, which Democrats should easily win, controversial Republican Rep. Steve King (Iowa) has a slim lead over Democrat J.D. Scholten.

Finally, voters in Michigan appear to have passed a ballot measure legalizing marijuana for recreational use.

Update (11 p.m.): To the extent that there is a blue wave, it has claimed Texas Republican Rep. Pete Sessions, who chairs the House Rules Committee and was notable for his role in preventing medical marijuana-friendly legislation from being brought to a vote. He is being projected to lose to Democrat Colin Allred. He currently trails 52 to 46 percent. Libertarian Party candidate Melina Baker is getting 1.7 percent of the vote.

Meanwhile in Montana, GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte, well-known for having body-slammed a journalist, is behind Democrat Kathleen Williams. Libertarian Party candidate Elinor Swanson is currently getting 2.7 percent of the vote, but that’s not enough to cover the spread.

The Democrats needed to pick up 23 to take control of the House, and it seems this point to be extremely likely they’re going to reach that goal. CNN reports they need just four more seats and polls are just now closing on the West Coast.

In the governor’s races, incumbent Republican Scott Walker in Wisconsin is still slightly behind Democratic challenger Tony Evers. Libertarian Phil Anderson may end up covering the spread there. And in Iowa, Republican incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds is lagging behind Democratic challenger Fred Hubbell. Republicans will keep control of the governor’s seat in Ohio. Mike DeWine is poised to succeed current Republican Gov. John Kasich. And CNN has just projected that Republican Ron DeSantis has won the title of governor in Florida.

UPDATE (10:33 p.m.): Democrats’ most recent pickups in the House include seats in Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Kansas, and New York. More than half the vote is in for Utah’s Fourth Congressional District, and Republican Mia Love is losing by about 10 points to Democratic challenger Ben McAdams. GOP Rep. Dave Brat, meanwhile, is locked in a tight battle against Democratic challenger Abigail Spanberger, who leads by a little more than 2,000 votes with 98 percent of the vote in.

In Texas, it looks like Republican Sen. Ted Cruz will hold off Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke (ABC projects Cruz will win). North Dakota Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp will lose re-election to GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer. No doubt in large part due to those results, CNN now projects that Republicans will keep control of the Senate.

Two races that were never really in doubt have also been called: Democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will win a House seat in New York, and former Massachusetts Gov. and 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney will be the next senator from Utah.

In Georgia’s gubernatorial race, Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp continues to lead Democratic state Rep. Stacey Adams. Incumbent GOP Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, meanwhile, trails Democrat Tony Evers by about 5 points.

UPDATE (10:05): Democrat Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania has defeated Keith Rothfus to represent the 17th District. And Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has defeated Carlos Curbelo in Florida’s 26th District.

Republican Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner has lost his re-election, falling to Democrat J.B. Pritzker, the first change of party for a governor seat. But it may not be the last. Republican Scott Walker is slightly behind Democratic challenger Tony Evers in Wisconsin. Republican Kris Kobach, meanwhile, has lost to Democrat Laura Kelly.

In New Jersey, scandals did not sink Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez. He has handily won re-election.

We noted earlier that Floridians have voted in favor of granting felons back their voting rights after they’ve served their time. They are also close to passing Amendment 11, which is just as important. Amendment 11 will allow the state to retroactively reduce the sentences of already prosecuted prisoners when they change the laws. The vote currently stands at 61 percent. It needs a 60 percent approval vote to pass.

Meanwhile in Louisiana, voters are so far favoring by 61 percent an amendment that would require unanimous jury verdicts to convict somebody of a felony. They are only one of two states (Oregon is the other) that allow defendants to be convicted with less than unanimous jury.

UPDATE (9:45 p.m.): With the GOP wins in the Indiana and Tennessee Senate races, the chances of Democrats taking back the Senate appear to be slim to none. To be clear, races in Texas and Florida are both too close to call, but the 2018 map really favored Republicans. Democrats had little room for error, and in losing both toss-up races, they probably won’t be able to win a majority.

Things are less clear in the House. Republican Rep. Andy Barr has been re-elected in Kentucky, though FiveThirtyEight currently gives Democrats a 56.5 percent chance of claiming a majority.

We also have updates on several ballot initiatives of note: A measure to legalize marijuana for recreational use is winning in Michigan. However, an initiative that would decriminalize weed is currently losing in North Dakota.

In Colorado, Democrat Jared Polis will become the first openly gay man to be elected governor in American history. Finally, libertarian-leaning Republican Rep. Justin Amash is projected to win re-election in Michigan’s Third Congressional District.

Update (9:15 p.m.): Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in Texas and Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo fended off challengers and will serve another term. Outlets are declaring that Democratic New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich has been re-elected, but numbers aren’t out yet to see what sort of role Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson played in the outcome. CNN is reporting that Democrat (but Trump-friendly) West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin will keep his seat.

UPDATE (8:45 p.m.): It looks like Shalala will defeat Maria Elvira Salazar in the race to fill retiring Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen’s seat. In Oklahoma’s Fifth Congressional District, Democrat Kendra Horn has a 9-point lead over the Republican incumbent, Rep. Steve Russell.

Back in Florida, both the gubernatorial and Senate races are very close. In the Senate race, Republican Gov. Rick Scott is leading Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson by about 1 point. In the race for governor, Democrat Andrew Gillum is trailing Ron DeSantis by a narrow margin. Both Gillum and Nelson led in most polls in the lead-up to Election Day.

In other Senate races, Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke has a narrow lead over GOP Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas, while early results show Rep. Marsha Blackburn beating former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredensen. It’s early in New Jersey, but incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez is winning over GOP challenger Bog Hugin.

UPDATE (8:15 p.m.): As a whole bunch of polls close in the East, South and Midwest, let’s take a quick look at a couple of relevant ballot initiatives and some governor’s races.

Ballot initatives: In Ohio, a ballot measure to reduce criminal penalties for drug crimes is losing badly with early results, 60 percent saying no.

In Florida, an initiative to restore voting rights to felons after they complete their sentences is faring better, with 64 percent voting yes. But so far that’s only 9 percent of the vote.

Governor’s races: In Georgia, Republican Brian Kemp, who has garnered plenty of controversy over his role in handling the elections themselves as the secretary of state, is ahead of Democrat Stacy Abrams 66 to 33 percent. Libertarian “spoiler” Ted Metz so far has only half a percent of the vote.

In Florida, Democrat Andrew Gillum and Republican Ron DeSantis are tied. Gillum had been ahead but then votes from the panhandle started coming in.

UPDATE (7:53 p.m.): In Virginia’s Seventh Congressional District, Rep. Dave Brat is leading Democratic challenger Abigail Spanberger by a slim margin. In Kentucky, meanwhile, Democrat Amy McGrath now has a 4-point lead over GOP Rep. Andy Barr.

In Indiana, Republican Mike Braun is leading Democrat Sen. Joe Donnelly by about 18 points. Florida Republican Gov. Rick Scott is trailing Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson by a little less than 3 points in that state’s Senate race.

In terms of gubernatorial races, Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, Republican, is leading Democratic state Rep. Stacey Abrams in the early results. Andrew Gillum, meanwhile, has a narrow lead over Ron DeSantis in the race for Florida governor.

UPDATE (7:25 p.m.): On the basis of early returns, the media is declaring that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) is safe. In Florida, Republican former Gov. Rick Scott and incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson are trading positions as the numbers are tallied. It’s too close to call early. In Indiana, Republican Mike Braun remains ahead of incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly.

In the House, Rep. Andy Barr (R–Ky.) and Democratic challenger Amy McGrath continue to change leads.

UPDATE (7 p.m.): Three-term Republican incumbent Rep. Andy Barr has a slim 0.1 percent lead over Democratic challenger Amy McGrath in Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional District, with roughly 2 percent of the votes counted. If McGrath wins, it could be an early indication that Democrats are on their way to taking back control of the House. President Donald Trump won this district by 15 points in 2016.

Meanwhile, Sen. Joe Donnelly (D–Ind.) is trailing his GOP opponent, former state Rep. Mike Braun, by a significant margin. Braun leads Donnelly 59.4 percent to 36.6 percent with 3 percent of the vote in. A loss by Donnelly could indicate that the Senate will not be in play for Democrats, who probably need to hold onto his seat if they want to flip the upper chamber of Congress. Libertarian candidate Lucy Brenton, meanwhile, has garnered 4 percent of the vote in what was expected to be a very close race.

In Kentucky’s Fourth Congressional District, libertarian-leaning Republican Rep. Thomas Massie has a sizable lead over Democrat Seth Hall. Massie leads by almost 20 points with 2 percent of the vote in.

UPDATE (6 p.m.): The first polls are now closing (in parts of Indiana and Kentucky). Many Americans will now begin the waiting and watching of election results to see if there’s a “blue wave” transferring control of the House of Representatives from the Republicans to the Democrats, whether some important ballot measures get passed, and to be told what this election “means” for the state of the government. Undoubtedly those who do not get the outcomes they want will be quick to declare America’s democracy to be at risk. It is, after all, the “most important election ever” until 2020, when that will most obviously be the most important election ever.

Or, if they’re not masochists, Americans might be binge watching the latest season of Daredevil on Netflix instead. We certainly would not judge or blame them. And if they’re libertarians, sitting through the endless blue vs. red narratives that spin out of midterm elections might not hold much appeal.

So if you’re one of those folks, welcome to Reason‘s election results liveblog. The two of us will be staying attuned to the outcomes so you can just check in as you please and otherwise live a happy, fulfilling evening doing as you choose. Various Reason writers will be weighing in at Hit & Run with deeper analysis of what election results mean. But this post is going to mostly revolve around simply reporting the outcomes of races and ballot initiatives that we think are significant, and that includes how high-profile libertarian candidates end up performing. We will be updating regularly. Remember the golden era of live-blogging? Consider this post to be a throwback.

Here’s some helpful pre-reading while you’re awaiting results:

• Ten House Races Libertarians Should Watch on Election Night
• Control of the Senate Could Depend on These 10 Races
• The 3 Libertarian Senate Candidates Most Likely to Be Called Spoilers
• Libertarian Larry Sharpe Has Raised a Record $450,000 in New York Governor’s Race
• Boston Globe Endorses Libertarian Dan Fishman for Massachusetts State Auditor
• 4 More States Could Legalize Medical or Recreational Marijuana Next Week
• Louisiana Voters May Dump Rule Allowing Convictions Without Unanimous Verdicts
• Ohio Will Vote on a Sentencing Reform Bill in November
• A Florida Amendment Seeks to Restore Voting Rights to Ex-Cons Who’ve Paid Their Dues
• California Is Starting to Make Halting Progress Toward Alleviating Its Housing Shortage. This Ballot Initiative Could Kill That Progress.

Check in regularly for the latest.

Michigan just became the 10th state, and the first in the Midwest, to legalize the recreational use of marijuana. On Tuesday, the state’s Marijuana Legalization Initiative, a.k.a. Proposal 1, was favored by 57 percent of voters with two-thirds of precincts reporting.

Proposal 1 allows adults 21 or older to possess 2.5 ounces or less of marijuana in public, transfer that amount to other adults “without remuneration,” possess up to 10 ounces at home, and grow up to 12 plants for personal consumption. The initiative charges the Michigan Department of Licensing and Regulatory Affairs with creating a licensing system for commercial production and distribution, subject to a 10 percent tax on retail sales. The department can issue special licenses allowing on-site consumption, subject to local approval. Municipalities can choose to ban or restrict marijuana businesses within their borders.

The initiative takes effect 10 days after the vote is certified, which usually happens about three weeks after the election. The provisions related to personal consumption therefore should take effect in early December. The licensing authority is required to start accepting applications from would-be marijuana merchants with a year of that date, meaning that legal sales might begin sometime in 2020.

Medical marijuana has been legal in Michigan since 2008, when 63 percent of voters approved it. Michigan joins nine states in legalizing recreational use: Alaska, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington. All but Vermont legalized commercial production and distribution, although licensing is still pending in Maine. Vermont, like Washington, D.C., allows possession, home cultivation, and noncommercial transfers.

“Western and Northeastern states have led the way on legalizing marijuana, but the victory in Michigan powerfully demonstrates the national reach of this movement,” Maria McFarland Sánchez-Moreno, executive director of the Drug Policy Alliance, said in a press release. “With such overwhelming public support for marijuana legalization, even including majorities of Republicans and older Americans, there’s only so long that the federal government can continue to hold out.”

The four Democratic senators facing competitive races who voted against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh lost their seats in Tuesday’s midterm elections, while the sole Democratic senator who supported the judge—West Virginia’s Joe Manchin—claimed victory.

Indiana’s Joe Donnelly, Missouri’s Claire McCaskill, North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp, and Florida’s Bill Nelson all lost their re-election bids.

In North Dakota, voters who were especially concerned about the Kavanaugh proceedings—which featured a dramatic series of late-breaking sexual assault allegations, at least two of which now seem highly questionable—voted GOP by a two-to-one margin, according to the Associated Press.

Michael Avenatti, who first gained fame as the attorney of alleged Trump mistress Stormy Daniels, also represented Julie Swetnick, who accused Kavanaugh of participating in serial sexual assault and drugging young women at house parties. The sheer ludicrousness of the charge, coupled with the fact that Swetnick repeatedly contradicted her story, likely provided cover for swing vote Sen. Susan Collins (R–Maine) to confirm Kavanaugh. Sen. John Kennedy (R–La.) told MSNBC, “I think this process changed dramatically when Mr. Avenatti entered the picture. I think a lot of people, including many of my Democratic colleagues, felt like we had gotten into the foothills of preposterous.”

Between Kavanaugh’s confirmation and Republican dominance in the Senate, Avenatti is the gift that keeps on giving for the right.

Until tonight, Brandon Phinney was a model for one genre of elected Libertarian: The party-switcher.

The New Hampshire state representative, elected to the 400-member body in 2016 as a Republican, switched to Libertarian in June 2017 after watching the machinery of allegedly small-government Republicanism up close. “I saw how they wanted to spend all of our money,” he recalled to me in an interview this summer, “and that immediately set off every red flag imaginable.” He targeted archaic laws to be stricken from the books, helped effectively legalize visiting bands drinking beer on stage, and prepped for his first election wearing the “L” right there on his sweater.

With a win tonight, Phinney could demonstrate that the most libertarian among Republicans can safely switch to the more ideologically sympatico smaller party, and still protect a seat. Other major-party politicians, surely, would take note in these polarizing times.

Phinney did not win. He got trounced.

“After two years of voting to protect personal freedom, control spending, provide transparency and after two years of proposing legislation to do the same (with two bills as a prime sponsor signed into law),” Phinney wrote on his Facebook page, “my district rewarded me with 377 votes.” It got more bitter from there:

As the incumbent State Representative who is capable of thinking for himself, isn’t a brainless pawn for a political party and works very hard for all NH residents, this election sent me the message that they do not want that kind of representation.

The Democratic candidate, who barely campaigned, received 1,548 votes. The Republican, who did NOTHING but put out yard signs, received 1,720 votes.

I received 377 votes.

In another post, Phinney complained that “voters care more about party than literally anything else and that’s the biggest problem in this country. The Republican victor is going to be just another pawn for the party, going along with whatever they say.”

We’re still waiting to hear on Phinney’s fellow N.H. state-rep party-switcher Caleb Dyer. Stay tuned to this space for news of Nebraska State Sen. Laura Ebke.

ORLANDO, Fla. — Florida voters approved a ballot measure Tuesday night that will restore voting rights to an estimated 1.4 million people with felony records in the critical swing state.

Amendment 4 passed by 64 percent and would re-enfranchise all felons in the state, save those convicted of murder or sex offenses. The amendment was supported by progressive groups, civil liberty organizations, conservative groups aligned with the Koch brothers, and a bevy of celebrities. It also received a groundswell of grassroots support from ex-offenders and their families, who say those who paid their debt to society should be returned to full citizenship.

“We have returned!” Desmond Meade, president of Florida Rights Restoration Coalition, told a room of overjoyed supporters, some of them teary-eyed, at an election night watch party in Orlando. Drake’s “Started From The Bottom” blared over the sound system.

“This was a campaign about inclusion,” Meade continued. “Those numbers represented what happens when we come together along the lines of humanity and reach each other where we’re at. That’s what happens when we’re able to transcend partisan politics and bickering, when we’re able to transence racial anxieties and discourse, when we’re able to come together as God’s children.”

Florida was one of four states that impose lifetime bans on voting for people with felony records. The two remaining states are Iowa and Kentucky. Virginia has a similar provision, but the last two governors have used their executive powers to restore voting rights of those affected.

Thirty-three states have various laws disenfranchising felony offenders and those under law enforcement supervision, impacting an estimated 6.1 million potential voters, according to a 2016 Sentencing Project report.

Former offenders in Florida could petition the governor for clemency to have their voting rights restored, but in 2011 then-governor Rick Scott, who is running for the U.S. Senate this year, rewrote the rules, making Florida the toughest state in the U.S. for felons to regain their voting rights.

“Ultimately, we are citizens, we are in the community, we do want to have a say—I know I do—and this is a great way to have that opportunity,” says Bryan Russi, 42, of Orlando, an ex-felon and current real estate agent. “It’s not Republican or Democrat, it’s a human thing. Everyone has people who have been affected.”

Kim Lawrance, an activist whose 18-year-old daughter is currently incarcerated, would like to see her child be able to vote one day. “They should be able to come home and get reintegrated into society,” Lawrance says. “When you’re time is done, it’s done.”

One estimate says that 10 percent of all Floridians who are otherwise eligible to vote have been disenfranchised by the law.

Felon disenfranchisement also disproportionately affects black residents. One out of every 13 African-Americans in the U.S. has lost their voting rights due to felony disenfranchisement laws, compared to one in every 56 non-black voters, the Sentencing Project report said.

Florida’s felony disenfranchisement laws were, like those in many other states, a vestige of the its racist 19th century “Black Codes,” which attempted to systematically criminalize freed slaves following the Civil War, and then bar them from voting.

In a statement, ACLU of Florida Executive Director Howard Simon celebrated what he called “one of the largest expansions of the franchise in our nation’s history” but warned that the fight was not over.

Shortly after Amendment 4 passed, Trump-aligned Republican Ron DeSantis narrowly defeated progressive Democrat Andrew Gillum in the race for Florida governor.

“The constitutional amendment the voters have now approved is not the end of this saga; it is more like the end of the beginning,” Simon said. “In the days and weeks ahead we will seek to work with newly elected Governor to ensure that Amendment 4 is implemented as intended by the Floridians who placed it on the ballot and voted to approve it—without delay and without imposing more burdens on the process to register to vote.”