No, Voting Doesn’t Mean You “Support The System”

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

I admit it. I voted…

In my home state of Colorado, all voting is by mailed paper ballots. That means, if you’re a registered voter, the county clerk sends you a ballot every election.

And then — at least in my case — it sits there on a table near my desk.

One is supposed to fill it out and then mail it back. Or drop it off in one of the mailbox-like boxes scattered around the city.

Sometimes I do it.

This time around, as the ballot sat there on the table, I kept thinking about the proposed tax increases I could vote “yes” or “no” on.

Like many states in the Western half of the United States, this state makes frequent use of ballot initiatives and referenda in elections. Voters are asked to vote up or down any number of regulations and taxes which the policymakers will be more than happy to implement if they can muster a “yes” from the majority of voters.

I’m certainly not willing to stand in line at a polling place, and I don’t care about getting an “I Voted!” sticker. But I had to admit the opportunity cost of sending in the ballot was really quite low. So, as I am not a big fan of new taxes, I filled out the ballot according to my whims, and sent it in.

Does Voting Mean You Support the Regime?

Nothing about this little anecdote would strike most people as remarkable in any way.

Since at least the nineteenth century, though, there has been a debate over whether or not voting somehow means the voter has agreed to submit to – or even support – whatever the state does. In some cases, libertarians and anarchists who agree with the “voting = consent” claim conclude that voting is therefore immoral, or perhaps even a form of violence.

Anarchist extraordinaire Lysander Spooner, however, disagreed:

It cannot be said that, by voting, a man pledges himself to the Constitution, unless the act of voting be a perfectly voluntary one on his part. Yet the act of voting cannot properly be called a voluntary one on the part of any very large number of those who do vote. It is rather a measure of necessity imposed upon them by others, than one of their own choice.

In other words, let’s imagine a small business owner were given the choice between Candidate A who promises to tax small businesses into oblivion, and Candidate B, who promises to lower taxes. It hardly follows that the small business owner who casts a ballot in this case was supporting the whole system and apparatus that had put him in such an unenviable position to begin with.

Spooner continues:

In truth, in the case of individuals, their actual voting is not to be taken as proof of consent, even for the time being. On the contrary, it is to be considered that, without his consent having even been asked, a man finds himself environed by a government that he cannot resist; a government that forces him to pay money, render service, and forego the exercise of many of his natural rights, under peril of weighty punishments. He sees, too, that other men practice this tyranny over him by the use of the ballot. He sees further, that, if he will but use the ballot himself, he has some chance of relieving himself from this tyranny of others, by subjecting them to his own. In short, he finds himself, without his consent, so situated that, if he use the ballot, he may become a master; if he does not use it, he must become a slave. And he has no other alternative than these two. In self-defence, he attempts the former.

…it would not, therefore, be a legitimate inference that the government itself, that crushes [the voters], was one which they had voluntarily set up, or even consented to.

In fact, when one adopts the position that voting indicates consent to the regime and all its acts, one is agreeing with the state’s apologists who repeatedly assert that, yes, voting means the voter acquiesces to the results of the election and the state overall.

They don’t stop there, though. Herbert Spencer notes that, in the minds of the voting-as-consent ideologues, not voting counts as consent too. As does voting against the victorious side in any election. Thus, it is claimed:

[T]he citizen is understood to have assented to everything his representative may do, when he voted for him.

But suppose he did not vote for him; and on the contrary did all in his power to get elected some one holding opposite views – what then?

The reply will probably be that, by taking part in such an election, he tacitly agreed to abide by the decision of the majority.

And how if he did not vote at all?

Why then he cannot justly complain of any tax, seeing that he made no protest against its imposition.

So, curiously enough, it seems that he gave his consent in whatever way he acted – whether he said yes, whether he said no, or whether he remained neuter!

A rather awkward doctrine this.

Here stands an unfortunate citizen who is asked if he will pay money for a certain proffered advantage; and whether he employs the only means of expressing his refusal or does not employ it, we are told that he practically agrees; if only the number of others who agree is greater than the number of those who dissent.

And thus we are introduced to the novel principle that A’s consent to a thing is not determined by what A says, but by what B may happen to say!

The only alternative, we are told, is to move thousands of miles from friends, family, and property, learn a new culture (and probably a new language), and take up residence under a different regime..

To define consent in this manner, though, sets the bar of consent so low as to render it utterly meaningless.

“No” Doesn’t Mean “No” After All?

The horrors of such a definition can be plainly seen if applied to the case of women and sexual consent. By the logic of the sort of “consent” Spencer describes, we are forced to conclude: if a women says “yes,” she consents. If she says “no,” she also consents. If she can’t run away, then she’s still consenting.

One suspects that this would not be a terribly successful argument if employed by a rapist in a court of law.

And yet, here we are, being told that no matter what you do at election time, nothing – short of self-imposed exile – is to be interpreted as actual opposition to the state.

Expanding a “No” Vote for Candidates

To be fair, voting for candidates would appear to be harder to defend in this vein than voting against specific policies.

Voting “no” on a tax increase is fairly unambiguous, and can hardly by taken as support for any other policy. With candidates, however, there is far more room for state action. Even a candidate who might campaign on a tax cut will, after winning the election, take his election as a mandate to enact all sort of other objectionable laws that those who voted for him based on the tax issue would oppose.

Thus, voting “yes” for any candidate is inherently more dangerous than simply voting “no” on a tax increase.

For this reason, one might suggest that all ballots offer an “abstain” or “none of the above” option. Even if no further steps were taken — such as requiring a run-off in cases where “abstain” won the a majority — the option of voting against everyone could do wonders to illustrate the lack of legitimacy that political candidates truly have. This of course, is how we ought to interpret the vote of every eligible voter who prefers to not vote at all. Every non-vote is essentially a none-of-the-above vote, and many people choose to express their opposition to the candidates in this way.

That’s a perfectly acceptable course of action. But it’s not the only acceptable one.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2PEWcWX Tyler Durden

Bigfoot Erotica Aficionado Denver Riggleman Beat Olivia Wilde’s Mom in Virginia Congressional Race

Republican Denver Riggleman defeated Democrat Leslie Cockburn on Tuesday night in Virginia’s 5th district.

Or, as you might remember them from the moment a few months ago when the race briefly made national headlines: the guy who was into Bigfoot erotica, and actress Olivia Wilde’s mom.

The race to replace retiring Republican congressman Tom Garrett took a weird turn in late July, when Cockburn’s campaign published drawings of nude Bigfoots lifted from Riggleman’s private Instagram account. The creature’s genitals were censored, and Riggleman’s head was superimposed over them. In the caption on the photos, Riggleman had claimed they could be used as cover art for a book he was writing—a book about, you guessed it, the mating habits of the mythical ape.

Cockburn accused Riggleman of being “a devotee of Bigfoot erotica,” because at least 2018 has a sense of humor. Oh, she also accused him of campaigning with a known white supremacist—which in most normal years would probably have been the bigger story.

The race was considered a toss-up by several national pollsters, because what else could you possible rate a race between a guy who wants to smush with Sasquatch and an Emmy-winning TV journalist running for Congress in rural Virginia?

With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Riggleman had 53.6 percent of the vote.

Not that I’d want to try to draw any more significant meaning out of a congressional race this ridiculous, but Riggleman’s victory was celebrated Tuesday on Twitter by Roy Beck, the founder and CEO of anti-immigrant nonprofit Numbers USA. He credited Riggleman’s win to his support for E-Verify (which doesn’t work) and stricter border control, while claiming Cockburn was “for amnesty.”

But, personally, I think it was the Bigfoot porn.

from Hit & Run https://ift.tt/2qwpYPl
via IFTTT

Sydney’s Housing Crash Could End Up Being The Longest On Record 

After a parabolic rise in Sydney home prices over the past cycle, mostly aided by a fear of missing out, property prices plateaued then rapidly moved lower midway through 2017, catching many by surprise.

Sydney home prices have dropped 7.4% over the past year, according to CoreLogic’s latest Home Value Index, the sharpest annual percentage decline since February 1990.

Cameron Kusher, a Research Analyst at CoreLogic, posted a series of charts on Twitter showing Australia’s largest and most expensive housing market has declined 8.2% from its cyclical peak 15 months ago, making this the fastest reversal in over three decades.

As shown in the next chart by Kusher on Twitter, in the past, it has taken several years for Sydney home prices to revert to prior cyclical peaks whenever values have plummeted.

Following the ugly downturn in the early 1990s, it took five years for home prices to return to their prior nominal peaks.

Many of the country’s top economists forecasted home prices to increase in 2018; one forecaster even expected prices to jump 9%. However, this was not the case, as house prices have experienced their most significant and longest peak to trough decline in modern history – spurred by housing affordability constraints, tightening of lending standards, and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s restrictions on new investor loans.

The Australian Financial Review surveyed five top economists that now expect the national house value index would continue to deteriorate into 2019, with Sydney, the epicenter of the downturn.

Stephen Koukoulas, of Market Economics, was the most downbeat of the bunch, with expectations prices would fall in Sydney between 7.5% and 10% in 2019 after a drop of 7.5% in 2018.

Nationally, he predicted house prices would fall by between 5% and 7.5%

“From the 3rd quarter in 2019, I am forecasting some stability in prices as supply and demand forces underpin new activity,” Koukoulas told The Australian Financial Review.”From the 3rd quarter in 2019, I am forecasting some stability in prices as supply and demand forces underpin new activity,” Koukoulas told The Australian Financial Review.

Once a floor is found in prices, he then expects first-home buyers would enter the market and take advantage of increased levels of affordability.

Five economist predictions for national house prices across 2019

Most of the economists agreed that the downturn has mainly been driven by tighter lending standards, not an interest rate hike cycle seen in prior turning points, there is evidence this bear cycle could be the longest in history.

The official policy rate of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has hovered at 1.50% since September 2016, which is at its lowest point on record, and some economists think the RBA could start hiking to get ahead of the next recession. An obvious negative for real estate markets.

Also, recent tightening in mortgage lending standards has now mostly run its course, at least according to Australia’s banking regulator, it is unlikely that lending standards will be relaxed given Australia’s already-high household debt to income ratio, a tailwind for the real estate market that has now turned into a headwind.

On top of everything mentioned above, an unprecedented supply of new housing is about to come online in Sydney, which will further tilt the supply side of the equation.

It all points to a continuation of the Australian housing market crash, one that will surely go into the record books.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2OoCQRb Tyler Durden

Once Again, Warren Buffett Has Given Us A Major Warning That Everything Is Expensive

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

Buffett’s holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, just announced a blockbuster quarter, earning nearly $7 billion.

And Buffett’s still sitting on over $100 billion of cash. That means he’s got enough money to buy almost any company he wants, anywhere in the world.

But the only move Buffett made in the last quarter was buying $928 million of Berkshire Hathaway stock.

Some people might say this is a sign that Buffett thinks Berkshire’s stock is incredibly undervalued.

To be fair, nobody knows Berkshire better than Buffett. And shares may present a good value at this level – an all-time high price.

But it’s clear to me that Buffett simply can’t find anything else worth buying.

Remember, Buffett’s got over $100 billion in cash (and he could use debt to fund an even larger acquisition).

So he could buy stock in any publicly traded company. Or he could buy most any private company (the last time he did this was Precision Castparts in 2016 for $32 billion).

He’s got so much cash he could even buy any one of the 451 out of 500 largest companies in the US – Nike, Starbucks, Goldman Sachs, etc.

But, nope… He just bought back some Berkshire stock.

In addition, he’s selling longtime holdings like drywall maker USG and IBM (for a $1 billion loss).

I wrote about Buffett and his giant cash pile in February, just after Berkshire released its annual report.

Back then, Buffett had a whopping $116 billion. But still couldn’t find anything to buy. As he said:

In our search for new stand-alone businesses, the key qualities we seek are durable competitive strengths; able and high-grade management; good returns on the net tangible assets required to operate the business; opportunities for internal growth at attractive returns; and, finally, a sensible purchase price.

That last requirement proved a barrier to virtually all deals we reviewed in 2017, as prices for decent, but far from spectacular, businesses hit an all-time high.

As we wrote back then, it seems people are still willing to pay far too high a price for not that great of businesses.

Buffett is famous for saying “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” And he’s sticking by that mantra today.

Like Buffett, I’ve also been raising cash. In fact, I’m sitting on more cash today than at any other time in my life.

And, like Buffett, I’m mostly holding that cash in 28-day T-bills.

However, unlike Buffett, I don’t have $100 billion to spend.

If I make a 20-50% return on a $5 million investment, that’s meaningful to me. But that’s peanuts to a guy like Buffett.

He’s got to put billions of dollars to work to generate enough cash to make a difference. And that severely limits the areas he can hunt for value.

But I’m able to look at all kinds of opportunities – like loans backed by fine wine, loans backed by bullion or European real estate and various, small-cap stocks around the world.

Despite most markets trading at or near all-time highs, there’s still a ton of value if you’re willing to do some extra work and look outside the US.

In The 4th Pillar, Tim Staermose just identified a consumer products company in South Korea trading for a 12% discount to its net cash backing.

He’s also recommended a security that holds portfolio of blue-chip stocks (including companies like Starbucks) trading for over a 20% discount to their market value.

And those are just two of the many opportunities you can take advantage of today in his 4th Pillar portfolio.

Value investing has been left for dead as the dumb money has chased up the value of companies like Uber and Tesla.

But when you can buy a profitable company for less than the amount of cash it has in the bank, it’s pretty hard to go wrong.

I’ll bet Buffett would make those investments if he could.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2QnvdMt Tyler Durden

Libertarians Could Impact as Many as 9 Governor’s Races

When it comes to gubernatorial races tonight, as my colleague Eric Boehm wrote here last week, “the results in Georgia and Wisconsin are likely to drive the narrative on Wednesday morning.” You’ve got the once-presidentialesque career of Scott Walker hanging in the balance up north, and “a potentially history-making candidate in a state that’s crucial to the [Democratic Party’s] hopes of cracking the Republican stronghold in the Deep South.”

And in both states, Libertarian candidates stand ready and willing to take the blame as “spoilers.” In Georgia, as I wrote here two weeks ago, Ted Metz with his 2 percent polling numbers looks poised to drive the toss-up race between Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp and Democratic legislator Stacey Abrams into a runoff, as the Peach State requires a full majority for electoral victory. The headline matchup has stoked understandable amounts of national attention: Kemp has been serially accused of voter suppression and related skullduggeries; Abrams would be the first black female governor in U.S. history.

In Wisconsin, as discussed here three weeks ago, Libertarian Phil Anderson wants to eliminate the income tax, remove state mandates and regulations on localities, and renegotiate Walker’s FoxConn crony capitalism boondoggle. He’s been polling around 4 percent, in a race rated by six of eight forecasters as a toss-up.

And yet neither Anderson nor Metz hold the crown of the Libertarian polling highest above the point spread in the headline Democrat-Republican race. That distinction belongs to Nevada’s Jared Lord, who has been averaging above 4 percent in a neck-and-neck race between GOP comer Adam Laxalt and Democratic Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak. Republican direct mail king Richard Viguerie—a critic of alleged Libertarian electoral spoilage—called this one of today’s “Two Most Important State Races for Conservatives,” arguing that “Adam Paul Laxalt is the only thing standing between the America we had, and the America that George Soros, Tom Steyer, Barack Obama and Eric Holder want to create.”

Similar to my exercise with Libertarian Senate candidates earlier today, here’s a list of gubernatorial candidates ranked by the relationship between their poll numbers and the spread between the top two candidates. There are other so-called “spoilers” running for the statehouse tonight—most notably independent Greg Orman in the bitterly contested Kansas race—but these are the ones wearing gold. And of course, no single candidate or political party is entitled to the votes of anyone, let alone those of us who prefer a more competitive politics.

1) Jared Lord, Nevada, +3.8 points

D Steve Sisolak 41.8%, R Adam Laxalt 41.4%, L Lord 4.2% (5 polls), I Ryan Bundy 3%, IA Russell Best 1.5% (2 polls)

Last poll: Sisolak 46%, Laxalt 45%, Lord 2%, none of the above (an option in Nevada) 5%, undecided 2% (Oct. 24-29 CNN/SSRC, which two months prior had the percentages 45-41-5-7-1).

Forecast: 6/8 Toss-up on Wikipedia’s page of collated election prognosticators, 1 Lean D, 1 Tilt D. FiveThirtyEight has it a toss-up, and projects the narrowest of Sisolak wins, 49%-48.7%, with 2.5% other. Election Betting Odds: Sisolak 54.9%.

2) Wisconsin, +2.4

D Tony Evers 47.3%, R Scott Walker (Incumbent) 45.5%, Anderson 4.2% (6 polls), G Michael White 1% (2 polls)

Last poll: Evers 47%, Walker 47%, Anderson 3%, undecided 0% (Oct. 24-28, Marquette University, which three weeks prior had the percentages at 49-44-6-1).

Forecast: 6/8 Toss-up, 2 Lean D. FiveThirtyEight says toss-up, but also projects Evers up 49.2%-47.5%, with 3.3% other. Election Betting Odds: Evers 58.3%.

3) Travis Irvine, Ohio, +2

D Richard Cordray 42.8%, R Mike DeWine 41.2%, Irvine 3.6%, G Constance Gadell-Newton 1.8% (5 polls)

Last poll: Cordray 48%, DeWine 45%, Irvine 5%, Gadell-Newton 1% (Change Research, Nov. 2-4).

Forecast: 7/8 Toss-up, 1 Lean D. FiveThirtyEight is one of the tosser-uppers, but projects a Cordray win at 49.8%-48.3%, with 2% other. Election Betting Odds: Cordray 67%.

Note: If Irvine gets 3 percent tonight, the Libertarian Party, which has spent six-figure sums fighting Ohio’s draconian ballot access laws, would have automatic ballot status for the 2020 presidential election.

4) Billy Toien, Alaska, +2

R Mike Dunleavy 43%, D Mark Begich 42%, Toien 3% (1 poll)

Forecast: 5/8 Lean R, 2 Toss-up, 1 Tilt R. FiveThirtyEight projects a GOP win, 50.8%-46.8%, with 2.4% other. Election Betting Odds: Dunleavy 71%.

This is one of the wildest races going tonight. Alaska’s incumbent governor, Bill Welker, is an independent, and an unpopular one at that. He was vying for second place in the polls with Democrat Mark Begich, 20 points behind frontrunner Republican Mike Dunleavy, when he abruptly exited the race Oct. 19 and endorsed Begich. There has only been one poll taken since that news, and you can see it above. Wheeeee!!!

5) Jake Porter, Iowa, +1.7

D Fred Hubbell 46%, R Kim Reynolds 43.7% (I), Porter 4% (3 polls), I Gary Siegwarth 1% (1 poll)

Last poll: Hubbell 49%, 46%, Porter 3%, Seigwarth 1% (Nov. 2-4, Change Research).

Forecast: 6/8 Toss-up, 1 Lean D, 1 Tilt D. FiveThirtyEight rates it a toss-up, but projects a narrow Hubbell victory, 49.7%-48.6%, with 1.7% other. Election Betting Odds: Hubbell 67.3%.

Note: Just 2 percent from Porter gets the L.P. ballot access in Iowa for 2020.

6) Ted Metz, Georgia, +1

R Brian Kemp 47.3%, D Stacey Abrams 46.3%, Metz 2% (8 polls)

Last poll: Kemp 49%, Abrams 47%, Metz 1%, undecided 2% (Oct. 29-31, Emerson College).

Forecast: 6/8 Toss-up, 1 Lean R, 1 Tilt R. FiveThirtyEight projects it outright for Kemp, 50.5%-48.3%-1.1%. Election Betting Odds agrees: Kemp 65.2%.

7) Jeff Caldwell, Kansas, +1ish?

D Laura Kelly 40.5%, R Kris Kobach 39.5%, I Greg Orman 9% (4 polls), Caldwell n/a, I Rick Kloos n/a.

Forecast: 7/8 Toss-up, 1 Lean D. FiveThirtyEight says toss-up, but projects Kobach a tick up at 44.9%-43.6%-9.8%, with 1.6% other. Election Betting Odds: Kobach 54.5%.

Kobach, arguably the country’s most prominent hunter of ever-illusive illegal-immigrant voter fraud, is high on the wish-list of Democratic targets. Orman, an entrepreneur who earned 43 percent running as an independent for the U.S. Senate in 2014, is a “sensible centrist”-style candidate, and is polling far ahead of any Libertarian gubernatorial candidate. Democrats will surely eviscerate him should the hated Kobach sneak through.

Libertarian Jeff Caldwell has not been polled, but Keen Umbehr won 4.1 percent running for this seat in 2014.

8) Kurt Evans, South Dakota, +0.3

D Billie Sutton 46.7%, R Kristi Noem 45.7%, L Kurt Evans 1.3% (3 polls)

Last poll: Sutton 51%, Noem 45%, Evans 2% (Nov. 2-4, Change Research).

Forecast: 3/8 Lean R & Toss-up, 1 Tilt R, 1 Likely R. FiveThirtyEight projects 50.5%-48%-1.5%.

9) Chris Powell, Oklahoma, -0.1

R Kevin Stitt 46.7%, D Drew Edmondson 43.3%, L Chris Powell 3.3% (3 polls)

Last poll: Stitt 47%, Edmondson 44%, Powell 3%, undecided 6% (Oct. 31-Nov. 3, Sooner Poll, basically the same as its two prior polls).

Forecast: 7/8 Safe R, 1 Likely R. FiveThirtyEight projects 52.9%-45.7%-1.4%.

There are plenty of interesting races among the remaining 13 Libertarian gubernatorial candidates, not least of which is New York nominee Larry Sharpe, about whom we’ll be reporting later. But. with the important caveat that polling has been meager, the rest of the field has not been within four percentage points of the polling spread between Democrats and Republicans.

from Hit & Run https://ift.tt/2PFRbNT
via IFTTT

Former Deputy AG Joins Goldman Legal Team As 1MDB Criminal Charges Loom

With federal prosecutors finally handing down indictments in the long-running 1MDB probe, the Vampire Squid is lawyering up. And in typical Goldman fashion, the investment bank is hiring only the best, most politically-connected defense attorneys to join its legal team. 

As the DOJ was preparing to file the first batch of federal charges against two former Goldman employees accused of conspiring to steal money and violate foreign anti-bribery laws, the investment bank retained Mark Filip, a prominent defense attorney and former deputy attorney general who was once the boss of the DOJ’s head of criminal investigations. For those who are unfamiliar with the DOJ’s depth chart, that’s the division tasked with overseeing the case against the two former Goldman managing directors, a case that the bank warned could lead to criminal charges against senior employees, or maybe even the bank itself.

According to the Financial Times, the bank hired Filip in the months before the charges, which were filed last week, became public. By bringing on Filip, the bank has put Brian Benczkowski, the DOJ’s criminal division chief, in a tough spot. Because back when Filip was a deputy AG, Benczkowski was his chief of staff. This obvious conflict of interest will likely force Benczkowski ro recuse himself from the case, creating disarray in the senior ranks of the DOJ.

Filip

Mark Filip

But as if this savvy maneuver didn’t offer the bank enough of an advantage over the federal government, Goldman’s new hire brings with him a particular set of skills that will definitely help the bank mitigate any blowback from the prosecution. Filip helped burnish his reputation as a prosecutor in the aftermath of the financial crisis by effectively writing the DOJ playbook for pursuing cases against major corporations – experience will no doubt come in handy when Filip joins the Goldman legal team for a sit-down with the DOJ later this month.

Goldman is scheduled to meet later this month in Washington with DOJ prosecutors to argue that it should not face criminal charges in connection to the 1MDB affair. Mr Filip will be part of the Goldman legal team making its presentation.

Such a presentation is known colloquially as a “Filip Factors” presentation because of a 2008 memo that Mr Filip wrote when he was deputy attorney-general. The memo outlined the factors prosecutors should weigh when deciding whether to charge a corporation.

The bank refused to elaborate on the reasons for Filip’s hiring when approached by the FT. saying only that he had been brought in to “supplement our legal team.”

“We’ve brought in Mark Filip to supplement our legal team,” said a spokesperson for Goldman Sachs. The bank approached Mr Filip before last week’s charges against the former Goldman employees, said one person familiar with the situation.

That Benczkowski will recuse himself isn’t just likely – it’s a virtual certainty. That’s because Trump Administration ethics guidelines bar DOJ officials from working on matters involving a former employer for at least two years after their confirmation. Benczkowski was nominated in June 2017, but his confirmation was held up for a year by Democrats concerned with his work for Russian bank Alfa Bank.

While there’s a slight chance that the DOJ or the White House could authorize a waiver, few believe this is likely – and Goldman is probably banking on the likelihood that they won’t.

During the confirmation process, he promised to recuse himself from any matters involving Alfa-Bank and said that, in any other cases where he felt he may have to recuse, he would consult with career ethics officials at the DOJ. He took up his post at the DOJ in July 2018 from Kirkland & Ellis, where he was a partner.

A Trump administration executive order bars executive branch officials from participating in matters for two years after their appointment if a party is represented by their former employer. Justice department ethics rules bar officials from such matters for one year.

The White House may issue a waiver to the order, while DOJ ethics officials can override the justice department’s bar “if the interest of the department outweighs the appearance of a conflict.”

For Goldman, a lot is riding on this case. While the bank paid billions of dollars in fines to settle civil actions after the financial crisis, it avoided criminal charges. The 1MDB scandal could change that. And with prosecutors reportedly setting their sights on a “mystery” senior banker (believed to be one of the bank’s former co-heads of investment banking), the pressure being brought to bear is intensifying. And the bank is clearly doing everything within its considerable means to fight back.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2zzwUPN Tyler Durden

Is This “The Most Important Election Of Our Lives” Or Just Another Distraction?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The problem isn’t polarization; the problem is neither flavor of the status quo is actually solving any of the nation’s most pressing system problems.

As I write this at 5 pm (Left Coast) November 6, the election results are unknown. While various media are trumpeting this as “the most important election of our lives,” the less eyeball-catching, emotion-triggering reality is this election is nothing but another distraction. No matter who “wins,” none of our systemic problems will be addressed, much less solved.

Does either party have the will or coherent grasp of what’s broken to fix America’s healthcare mess? No. The Democrats’ “solution” is to take the bloated, ineffective Medicare system that incentivizes blatant fraud, overbilling and profiteering and increase the sickcare cartels’ power and profits via “Medicare for All.”

This is akin to giving defense contractors the power to set the Pentagon budget. Oh, wait, they already have that power.

In the exact same fashion, Medicare’s soaring budget is set by profiteering’ cartels. Nothing will change in “Medicare for All” except taxes will go up and the cartels will skim additional billions in rentier profits.

The Republican solution is to call quasi-monopolies and cartels “markets.”Since turning everything into a market solves all problems, that’s the “market-based “solution.” But since healthcare is run by cartels, which fix the “market” to their own benefit, there really is no “market” in healthcare, and nobody’s interested in establishing one because that would crater cartel profits.

As I’ve noted many times, our dysfunctional healthcare will bankrupt the nation all by itself. Sickcare Will Bankrupt the Nation–And Soon (2011)

U.S. Healthcare Isn’t Broken–It’s Fixed (May 16, 2018)

How about a systemic solution for opioid addiction? If you believe either party has a solution,” you need to reduce your Ibogaine intake. Opioids and other addictions (like social media and mobile phones) are immensely profitable and so the cartels and monopolies profiting from addictions fund politicos in both parties to insure their profits aren’t reduced.

How about a dysfunctional weapons procurement system? Both parties love trillion-dollar weapons programs as long as the money sluices into enough Congressional districts. So what if the weapon system is defective, already outdated, poorly designed, the wrong system for the challenges ahead or simply not cost-effective– as long as the campaign contributions are gushing into D.C. and politicos can brag about “jobs” created by building failed weaponry, nothing will change. The Pentagon can beg Congress to stop building the darn thing and the Pentagon will be ignored: there’s simply too much money at stake to care whether it actually serves military needs.

How about soaring debt loads on every sector of the economy? Money that goes to pay interest can’t be invested or spent elsewhere, and that starves the economy of productive investment. The super-wealthy own much of the debt and receive much of the interest income. This is a systemic problem that isn’t viewed as a problem because the super-wealthy own the political process.

The “solution” to crushing student loan debt ($1.4 trillion and counting) is to transfer the entire debt to the taxpayers, meaning the federal government issues another $1.4 trillion in debt to pay the super-wealthy who own all the student loans. Nice for the super-wealthy and politicos, not so nice for future taxpayers burdened with trillions more in debt.

Neither party can accept that higher education is a failed, dysfunctional system. And so the “solution” is borrow another couple trillion and pay interest to the super-wealthy who own the debt, all for an “education” that often has little value in either the economy or the debt-serf students’ lives.

The problem isn’t polarization; the problem is neither flavor of the status quo is actually solving any of the nation’s most pressing system problems. This is why we’re coming apart at the seams: problems are being left unaddressed and so they only become more entrenched and destructive.

*  *  *

My new mystery The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake is a ridiculously affordable $1.29 (Kindle) or $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) My book Money and Work Unchained is now $6.95 for the Kindle ebook and $15 for the print edition. Read the first section for free in PDF format. If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2F85KWr Tyler Durden

Crown Prince Launches Saudi Arabia’s First Nuclear Reactor On Very Day Sanctions Hit Iran

In but the latest after an insane month of news featuring the kingdom since the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the AP reports Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman laid the ceremonial foundation stone for Saudi Arabia’s first nuclear research reactor on Monday. 

The site is the first of 16 planned reactor sites to be built over the next two decades, and is raising fears that it could mark the start of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, especially given the timing as November 5th was the very day severe U.S. sanctions on Iran targeting the energy industry took effect, precisely over the White House accusation that it is not serious about de-nuclearization. 

MbS at the inaugural ceremony on Monday. Image source: SPA

The official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported that the reactor is part of seven major projects launched as he visited Riyadh’s King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology. The kingdom is seeking to diversify the way it meets its energy needs, currently driven by oil and gas. The SPA report did not indicate when the research reactor would go online, but did mention it is the start of a 20-year, $80bn project to build 16 nuclear reactors

According to a joint AP/Times of Israel report

Prince Mohammed said in March that if Iran develops a nuclear weapon, Riyadh will do so too. In an interview with CBS television, he likened regional rival Iran’s supreme leader to Hitler, saying he “wants to create his own project in the Middle East.”

Riyadh held deep reservations over the 2015 accord aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions and hailed US President Donald Trump’s announcement in May that the United States was withdrawing from the deal.

During that CBS/60 Minutes interview MbS said“Saudi Arabia doesn’t want to own a nuclear bomb. But without a doubt, if Iran develops a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.”

No doubt the symbolism of MbS laying the foundation stone for the kingdom’s first nuclear reactor on the very day aggressive sanctions on Iran snapped back will not be lost of Tehran.

Given the timing it appears the Saudis were positively celebrating the sanctions and even provoking Iran. All of this means that the nuclear arms race between Iran and Saudi Arabia is officially on, even as much of the Middle East and the world is spotlighting the crimes  of both. However, it will likely come slowly at first and under the guise of “peaceful” energy development of a “research” nature. 

And guess which Western country is inking deals with the Saudis for nuclear reactors? We don’t expect the global outrage over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi to ultimately halt such deals, even if they slow for the time being. The AP reports:

Trump reportedly refused a March request by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a commitment to halting an emerging deal to sell further nuclear reactors to Saudi Arabia, telling the prime minister that if the US did not supply the reactors, then the Russians or Chinese would.

Netanyahu and his team reportedly requested that, if the Americans insist on going ahead with building reactors, Saudi Arabia be prevented from enriching uranium by itself.

Currently, the only Arab Gulf country to have previously launched a nuclear power project is the United Arab Emirates, which is constructing four South Korea-designed reactors.

Meanwhile Iran has long claimed its own nuclear initiatives were purely to pursue energy needs much like the Gulf countries are seeking to diversify away from sole reliance on oil and gas. While the West has always refused to take Tehran’s word for it, it will be interesting to see if there’s any eventual shift in opinion concerning the Saudis’ pursuit of large reactors given the current scrutiny over the kingdom’s dismal human rights record in the wake of the Khashoggi affair. 

via RSS https://ift.tt/2OrkOgZ Tyler Durden

CIA’s ‘Surveillance State’ Is Operating Against Us All

Authored by Sharyl Attkisson, op-ed via The Hill,

Maybe you once thought the CIA wasn’t supposed to spy on Americans here in the United States.

That concept is so yesteryear…

Over time, the CIA upper echelon has secretly developed all kinds of policy statements and legal rationales to justify routine, widespread surveillance on U.S. soil of citizens who aren’t suspected of terrorism or being a spy.

The latest outrage is found in newly declassified documents from 2014. They reveal the CIA not only intercepted emails of U.S. citizens but they were emails of the most sensitive kind — written to Congress and involving whistleblowers reporting alleged wrongdoing within the Intelligence Community.

The disclosures, kept secret until now, are two letters of “congressional notification” from the Intelligence Community inspector general at the time, Charles McCullough. He stated that during “routine counterintelligence monitoring of government computer systems,” the CIA collected emails between congressional staff and the CIA’s head of whistleblowing and source protection.

McCullough added that he was concerned about the CIA’s “potential compromise to whistleblower confidentiality and the consequent ‘chilling effect’ that the present [counterintelligence] monitoring system might have on Intelligence Community whistleblowing.”

“Most of these emails concerned pending and developing whistleblower complaints,” McCullough stated in the letters to lead Democrats and Republicans at the time on the House and Senate Intelligence Committees — Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.), and Reps. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) and Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Md.).

The March 2014 intercepts, conducted under the leadership of CIA Director John Brennan and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, happened amid what’s widely referred to as the Obama administration’s war on whistleblowers and mass surveillance scandals.

Is that legal?

According to the CIA, the spy agency has been limited since the 1970s to collecting intelligence “only for an authorized intelligence purpose; for example, if there is a reason to believe that an individual is involved in espionage or international terrorist activities” and “procedures require senior approval for any such collection that is allowed.”

But here’s where it gets slippery. It turns out the CIA claims it must engage in “routine counterintelligence monitoring of government computers” to make sure certain employees aren’t doing bad things. Poof! Now, all kinds of U.S. citizens and their communications can be swept into the dragnet — and it’s deemed perfectly legal. It’s just an accident or “incidental,” after all, if the CIA happens to pick up whistleblower communications with the legislative branch.

Or maybe it’s a lucky break for certain CIA officials.

The only reason we know any of this now is thanks to Sen. Chuck Grassley(R-Iowa), whose staffers were among those spied on. Grassley says it took four years for him to get the shocking “congressional notifications” declassified so they could be made public. First, Grassley says, Clapper and Brennan dragged their feet, blocking their release. Their successors in the Trump administration were no more responsive. Only when Grassley recently appealed to current Intelligence Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson, who was sworn in on May 17, was the material finally declassified.

“The fact that the CIA under the Obama administration was reading congressional staff’s emails about Intelligence Community whistleblowers raises serious policy concerns, as well as potential constitutional separation-of-powers issues that must be discussed publicly,” wrote Grassley in a statement.

Legal or not, there was a time when this news would have so shocked our sensibilities — and would have been considered so antithetical to our Constitution by so many — that it would have prompted a swift, national outcry.

But today, we’ve grown numb. Outrage has been replaced by a cynical, “Who’s surprised about that?” or the persistent belief that “Nothing’s really going to be done about it,” and, worst of all, “What’s so bad about it, anyway?”

Some see the intel community’s alleged abuses during campaign 2016 as its own major scandal. But I see it as a crucial piece of a puzzle.

The evidence points to bad actors targeting candidate Donald Trump and his associates in part to keep them — and us — from learning about and digging into an even bigger scandal: our Intelligence Community increasingly spying on its own citizens, journalists, members of Congress and political enemies for the better part of two decades, if not longer.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2DnJ9n7 Tyler Durden

China’s Middle Class Is Again Desperate To Move Its Money Out Of The Country

The Chinese middle class is again taking substantial risks to move their money out of China. As a result, Chinese investors are blowing up foreign real estate markets while risking getting ripped off at the same time. 

The South China Morning Post recently highlighted one such example, profiling several Chinese citizens who purchased property in Australia to safeguard their wealth, only to see the well-known Australia-based property agent suddenly shutter its doors in August, leaving behind about $50 million in missing deposits and failed settlements.

This kind of “unexpected” event is just one example of the risks that Chinese mainlanders face while trying to protect themselves by moving assets overseas, especially in light of Beijing’s strict capital controls on outbound capital. Many Chinese citizens even seek out citizenship or visas in nearby friendly foreign countries to diversify away from investment options at home.

And in China, this isn’t just some basic diversification strategy like it is elsewhere around the globe. Instead, it is a direct response to growing fear that the Chinese quality of life is deteriorating. It’s also a result of growing frustration that there are so few opportunities to invest at home. And the government isn’t making it easy: China severely restricts capital flows out of its country, stating that it wants the cash to stay domestic for productivity and development purposes.

It also means that those who accrued their wealth through the country’s real estate “boom” really don’t have a way to feel financially secure, as their proceeds must stay within the country, subject to several additional growing bubbles inevitably waiting to pop in China. And it isn’t just for economic reasons – Chinese citizens are also starting to look abroad as a result of the country’s authoritarian political climate, heavy pollution and national food safety and vaccine scandals.

Faced with increasingly draconian capital controls, China’s citizens are growing desperate to move their money offshore and doing silly things to achieve it. Take Raymond Zhang who was in his early 40s when he paid to join a real estate investment tour of Australia. He was thinking he would diversify his finances to safeguard them.

“It had been arranged for us to visit a dozen property projects in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, including flats, villas and houses with land packages. I loved Australia as soon as I landed there. The [prices of the] properties and living costs were quite affordable for us, not to mention the good air, legal system and education system for my family,” he told the SCMP.

The company that took them overseas asked for a $29,000 deposit, to be returned to 35 days after the investors returned back to China. Zhang says the money was never returned.

Meanwhile, the door to get money out of the country is closing as Beijing has dramatically increased the way it polices efforts to skirt capital controls and even “names and shames” people involved in this effort in order to warn the country’s middle class. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, or SAFE, told the SCMP that at the end of August, there were 23 such cases outstanding. Five of them involved Chinese individuals trying to buy property overseas, others were using “underground banks” to buy property and move large chunks of money out of the country.

To limit capital flight, Beijing grants every individual a mere $50,000 foreign exchange quota, and buying beyond that amount requires special approval from SAFE. In addition to an annual cap on foreign exchange purchases, Beijing also limits individuals’ overseas withdrawals using a Chinese bank card at 100,000 yuan (US$14,400) per year.

* * *

The effect of China’s capital flight isn’t confined just to the mainland. Those looking to buy real estate outside of the country have negatively impacted many local economies, sometimes causing housing markets to bubble.

In response, Australia has tried to tighten its foreign investment rules in response to Chinese capital inflows. In 2016, the land Down Under even made it illegal for the country’s four major banks to lend to foreign property buyers without domestic incomes. New Zealand went so far as to simply prohibit foreigners from buying property altogether because the demand was driving property prices out of the reach of locals. Canada did something similar, canceling its Canadian Federal Immigrant Investor program because of the huge backlog and bubbly real estate markets in places like Vancouver and Toronto.

Hundreds of Chinese “investors” who had put down deposits or bought homes in Malaysia also found themselves scrambling after new Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad stated his country would not allow foreigners to buy residential units in a forthcoming $100 billion real estate project, which is being developed by a Chinese firm.

Laura Zhang, who already bought a home in the project told SCMP: “What Mahathir said has definitely had a negative impact on the demand from and aspirations of middle-class investors from China. We feel we are not welcome here and there is growing uncertainty and risk for our long-stay visas and investments.” 

In the United States, the EB-5 investor visa seems to finally have fallen out of favor given how immigration law under President Trump has tightened significantly. Approval for this visa can take up to 10 years and the huge backlog has deterred people from signing up.

None of these developments have quenched Chinese citizens’ thirst to move their savings overseas. Raymond Zhang, who lost his nearly $30,000 deposit, concluded by telling the SCMP that even if he cannot get his money back, he still wants to buy property abroad: 

“I’m really worried about the worsening economic situation on the mainland, so that is really my main driver to have another go,” he said.

In light of this pent up capital flight, one wonders how long before enterprising Chinese citizens rediscover cryptos and some novel way of bypassing China’s firewall, and resume buying and sending cryptocurrencies outside the country. As a reminder, it was Chinese citizens that back in late 2015 first catalyzed the next massive move in bitcoin from $230 all the way up to $20,000 – a move which was subsequently joined by Japan and South Korea – before a global coordinated crackdown was required to halt interest in and purchases of cryptocurrencies.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2Ou5ss1 Tyler Durden