Month: November 2018

US equity futures, European and Asian stocks all dropped as nervous investors looked ahead skeptically to a much anticipated meeting between the American and Chinese presidents that could decide the course of the trade war. US Treasury yields dropped and the dollar gained amid a flutter of risk-off sentiment across the globe.

The G20 Summit kicks off today in Buenos Aires, and while the main event will be the Trump-Xi “dinner of the decade” on Saturday, headline risk is high for the entire event. Market participants have every reason to be nervous: heading into the meeting neither side has expressed a willingness to make concession, making the outcome highly uncertain.

Ahead of his Saturday meeting with Xi, Trump said Thursday he’s very close to “doing something” with China as officials work on the contours of a deal that may delay ramping up tariffs on the Asian country in January. Any sign of a trade truce could take the edge off a rampant greenback and boost risk assets including emerging-market currencies and stocks. Goldman Sachs, however, said an escalation of tensions is the most likely outcome. Citi agrees and notes that even a positive statement will likely be faded promptly by markets because as Citi notes, “any material break in the trade war impasse is difficult to achieve, and so any positive response on Monday may ultimately be short-lived.”

US equity futures were down 0.5%, following weakness in Europe where the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped to session lows, falling as much as 0.6% and trimming its weekly gains following a raft of disappointing macro data. Revised data showed Italy’s economy contracted 0.1% q/q in 3Q; German Oct. adjusted retail sales dropped -0.3% m/m; missing estimates of +0.4%. Euro-area inflation slipped to 2% in November from a year earlier, matching estimates, while the core reading unexpectedly dropped to 1%.

Germany’s DAX (-0.6%) felt the burden of falling auto names after Daimler (-2.7%) was downgraded to sell at HSBC, in turn moving the likes of Volkswagen (-1.1%) and BMW (-1.8%) lower in sympathy. Sector wise, consumer discretionary (weighed by auto names) lags, closely followed by financials as Morgan Stanley downgraded the EU banking sector, while Deutsche bank (-3.0%) shares hit an all time low as the bank feels the brunt of a double whammy from the aforementioned downgrade alongside a second day of raids amid the money laundering probe.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded mixed amid a cautious global risk tone with shares gaining in Tokyo, slipping in Seoul and slumping in Sydney, while rebounding in Shanghai and Hong Kong ahead of the US-China showdown at the G20 and as participants digested disappointing Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 (-1.6%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) initially followed suit to the lacklustre lead from their counterparts stateside with Australia the underperformer on broad weakness in which nearly all sectors declined, while Japanese exporters were hampered by recent flows into the JPY before staging a late recovery. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) were initially indecisive due to trade uncertainty amid a ‘hot and cold’ stance by US President Trump who stated he is close to doing something on trade with China but is unsure if he wants to, while reports noted that White House Trade Adviser and ‘China hawk’ Navarro is back on the guest list for the Trump-Xi dinner tomorrow evening. Furthermore, the latest Chinese PMI data left much to be desired as both Official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations with the former at its lowest since June 2016. The indices closed higher on the day, however.

In FX, the dollar rebounded sharply from yesterday’s losses, rising against most G-10 peers in a muted trading session; Treasury yields edged lower while the yen was steady as investors refrained from taking risks ahead of this weekend’s meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. The euro slipped to a day low, holding below the 1.14 handle, after London came into the market. The Norwegian krone crept lower after oil prices resumed their slump, while retail sales contracted in October, missing estimates and unemployment rose in November; DNB finds it likely that Norges Bank will adjust down its rate path in December. The pound remained under pressure, drifting downward as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May continued efforts to win backers for her Brexit deal. Emerging-market equities and currencies dipped.

Finally, Korea’s won held on to this week’s losses as Friday’s interest rate increase did little to assuage concern surrounding the economy.

WTI crude was dragged back under $51 a barrel, on track for the biggest monthly drop in a decade. The euro weakened after data showed inflation in the common-currency region easing.

Looking at this weekend’s key event, Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd told Bloomberg TV that “I wouldn’t be surprised at the end of this weekend if the U.S. and China didn’t announce a concord that basically sat down a path to help resolve the trade frictions. I don’t think that out of the meeting there’s going to come much substance, but there will be a sort of set of principles that will be established to start the process of bringing an end to the trade war.”

Economic data include MNI Chicago Business Barometer.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,734.00
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 356.33
• MSCI Asia down 0.2% to 153.44
• MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.4% to 490.93
• Nikkei up 0.4% to 22,351.06
• Topix up 0.5% to 1,667.45
• Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 26,506.75
• Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 2,588.19
• Sensex up 0.05% to 36,186.77
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 5,667.16
• Kospi down 0.8% to 2,096.86
• German 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 0.312%
• Euro down 0.2% to $1.1374
• Brent Futures down 1.1% to $58.88/bbl
• Italian 10Y yield fell 5.1 bps to 2.837%
• Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 1.506%
• Brent futures down 1.1% to $58.88/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,221.86
• U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 97.00

Top Overnight News

• Federal Reserve officials have stepped off a predictable path of interest-rate increases and are signaling to investors a hard truth about relying on increasingly contradictory economic data: There are no easy answers anymore.
• Waning year-end demand for the U.S. currency is leading to a decline in dollar-funding costs for Japanese and European investors
• Gold may be turning the corner as prices head for the first back-to-back monthly gain since January, holdings in exchange-traded funds expand, and investors reappraise the metal’s prospects in 2019 amid speculation the Federal Reserve will pause its tightening cycle
• The sequence in which the ECB will take its next policy moves “has pretty much been communicated. It’s more about the timing of the various elements,” Estonian central banker Ardo Hansson says in interview with Financial Times
• The first official reading of China’s economy in November showed the manufacturing PMI on the brink of contraction. New export orders contracted for a sixth month while the non-manufacturing gauge, reflecting activity in the construction and services sectors, expanded but at a slower pace

Asian stocks traded mixed amid a cautious global risk tone ahead of the US-China showdown at the G20 and as participants digested disappointing Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 (-1.6%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) initially followed suit to the lacklustre lead from their counterparts stateside with Australia the underperformer on broad weakness in which nearly all sectors declined, while Japanese exporters were hampered by recent flows into the JPY before staging a late recovery. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) were initially indecisive due to trade uncertainty amid a ‘hot and cold’ stance by US President Trump who stated he is close to doing something on trade with China but is unsure if he wants to, while reports noted that White House Trade Adviser and ‘China hawk’ Navarro is back on the guest list for the Trump-Xi dinner tomorrow evening. Furthermore, the latest Chinese PMI data left much to be desired as both Official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations with the former at its lowest since June 2016. The indices closed higher on the day, however. Finally, 10yr JGB traded lacklustre after having failed to benefit from the risk averse tone in Japan and BoJ’s presence in the bond market, as prices marginally pulled back from recent gains which had seen long-term yields hit their lowest levels since the beginning of August.

Top Asian News

• China’s Worsening Economy Adds Pressure on Xi Heading to G-20
• BOJ Governor Kuroda’s Latest Pay Raise Falls Short
• Meitu Sinks on Concern Data Privacy Warning Will Worsen Losses
• Evergrande Leads China Developer Rally; Rhb Cites Policy Hopes

Major European indices are lower across the board (Eurostoxx 50 -0.3%) after the region gave up opening gains amid trade jitters heading the US-Sino showdown at the G20 Summit. UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.7%) underperforms peers as heavyweight miners are pressured by the price action in the base metals complex, while Germany’s DAX (-0.6%) feels the burden of falling auto names after Daimler (-2.7%) was downgraded to sell at HSBC, in turn moving the likes of Volkswagen (-1.1%) and BMW (-1.8%) lower in sympathy. Sector wise, consumer discretionary (weighed by auto names) lags, closely followed by financials as Morgan Stanley downgraded the EU banking sector, while Deutsche bank (-3.0%) shares hit an all time low as the bank feels the brunt of a double whammy from the aforementioned downgrade alongside a second day of raids amid the money laundering probe. In terms of stock specifics, Altice (+8.0%) rose to the top of the Stoxx 600 (-0.5%) after the company sold its 49.9% stake in SFR GTTH for EUR 1.8bln, while Faurecia (-7.1%) is the worst performer in Europe amid a downgrade.

Top European News

• Bayer Gains as Analysts Applaud Surprise Measures: Street Wrap
• The London Housing Market Is Worse Than It Looks. Here’s Why
• Italian Jobless Rate Jumps With More Reentering Labor Market
• SocGen Seeks to Tap African Growth and Shrug Off Europe Woes
• Europe Auto Stocks Drop as China, Trade Prompt PT Cuts at HSBC

In FX, the Greenback remains off pre-Powell highs in wake of the latest FOMC minutes that effectively affirm a shift in the approach towards forward guidance that may start in December after a final rate hike this year, with less pre-set indications and more flexibility to take on board incoming data. However, the Buck is ahead vs all G10 counterparts bar the Kiwi that is benefiting from favourable cross-winds, with the index edging just over 97.000 again. EUR – The single currency has been more volatile than most ahead of the looming G20 Summit and month end, with more spikes vs the Pound through 0.8900 around fixes due to ongoing/residual RHS interest, but another failure at 1.1400 vs the Usd on round number offers and option expiry flows as circa 1.6 bn roll off between the big figure and 1.1410 at the NY cut. Moreover, some Usd12.6 bn SOMA-related Dollar demand coincides with the final trading day of November, and this usually weighs most heavily on Eur/Usd vs potential bids at 1.1350 where another 1.6bn expiries reside. AUD/CAD – Also underperforming vs the Greenback, with the Aud bearing the brunt of a weaker than forecast Chinese manufacturing PMI overnight ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting on Saturday, and struggling top keep hold of 0.7300 as the Aud/Nzd cross pivots 1.0650 and the Kiwi remains within striking distance of its 200 DMA (0.6870). Meanwhile, the Loonie is back below 1.3300 as crude prices resume their slide amidst reports from Russia suggesting that OPEC+ are content with current levels, which have also piled more pressure on the Rub for obvious reasons.

In commodities, WTI (-1.4%) and Brent (-1.0%) lost the USD 51/bbl and USD 60/bbl handles respectively with sentiment  deteriorating as the G20 Summit goes underway, where participants will be looking out for leaks in regard to any potential supply change discussed by key policy makers. Meanwhile, ahead of the Dec 6th OPEC meeting, Russian Energy Ministry stated that OPEC and non-OPEC producers are comfortable with the current oil price, while the country’s Energy Minister Novak said Russia plans to maintain the average oil output level until year-end. Note: yesterday he said Russia proposes an output cut for next year. In the metals complex, gold (-0.2%) erodes post-Powell gains and remains in the November range of USD 1200-1240/oz as the yellow metal mirrors the rising USD, with traders noting a clean break above the top of the range could result in further bullish action. Copper (-0.3%) trade lower amid the cautious risk tone ahead of the Trump-Xi G20 showdown, with moves to the downside exacerbated by the disappointing Chinese manufacturing PMIs overnight. Elsewhere, Shanghai aluminium prices declined to their lowest level in over two years to print their third consecutive monthly decline amid oversupply fused with downbeat Chinese PMIs.

 

US Event Calendar

• 9am: Fed’s Williams Speaks on Global Economy at G30 in New York
• 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, est. 58.5, prior 58.4

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As I peer into the distance toward s snow-covered mountain tops, the last day of November is now upon us and all of a sudden we’re into the final countdown to year-end, my Xmas ski trip, and thus the likelihood of getting reacquainted with my knee surgeon sometime early next year. We noted at the start of this week that there are still a few big events for markets to get past before we can call it a year and the first of those starts today and continues into the weekend with the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires. The G20 overall is a sideshow to the main event, which is the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jingping. Will the two leaders strike a truce and thus a grand bargain on trade or will talks hit another snag? It would take a brave man to predict the outcome and it does feel like messages have been fairly mixed in recent days despite some optimism from the US side, especially from Trump’s economic advisor Kudlow, that a deal can be made. Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the two sides are approaching a deal, possibly to include suspension of any new US tariffs through next spring in exchange for discussions and the lifting of restrictions on US agriculture and energy exports. On the other hand, the President told the very same newspaper earlier this week that it is “highly unlikely” that the next tranche of tariffs, set to take effect on Jan 1, will be delayed. Yesterday’s Reuters headline quoting Trump as saying that he is “close to doing something with China, but he doesn’t know if he wants to do it” perhaps sums up the state of play nicely. Interestingly, the South China Morning Post reported that the White House trade policy adviser, Peter Navarro – who is a known China hawk – is now scheduled to attend the dinner between Trump and Xi having initially been left out. US Trade Representative Lighthizer is still due to attend.

So all to play for and something for everyone in the pre-show headlines. As for timing, the meeting between Trump and Xi is due to take place Saturday evening at some point over dinner, however the exact timing is uncertain. Another potentially interesting meeting on the agenda was that between Trump and Russian President Putin. However, after the Kremlin confirmed yesterday that the meeting was to go ahead tomorrow, President Trump instead said that he had cancelled the meeting, tweeting yesterday that his decision was “based on the fact that the ships and sailors have not been returned to Ukraine from Russia”.

In any case, the tensions between Russia and the Ukraine should also be a focal point along with the trade war, while the  presence of the Saudi Crown Prince could also be another talking point. The event has no shortage of AListers however with Japan’s Abe, Germany’s Merkel, France’s Macron, UK’s May, EC’s Juncker, EU’s Tusk, Italy’s Conte, and Turkey’s Erdogan among the leaders attending so there’s the potential for plenty of newsflow this weekend.

As for markets, well the strong three-day winning run for US equities came to an end last night with the S&P 500 (-0.22%), DOW (-0.11%) and NASDAQ (-0.25%) all finishing slightly in the red. As has been the trend recently, tech led the decliners with the NYSE FANG index down -1.13% with Apple (-0.77%) down for the sixth time in the last eight sessions. It was hard to know if the slight riskoff was some pessimism ahead of the G20 or reaction to the news that Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen had pleaded guilty to a new federal charge and also agreed to cooperate with Robert Mueller. Prior to this, Europe had opened strongly, benefiting from the dovish Powell halo effect, though ultimately the moves faded. The STOXX 600 pared gains of as much as +0.75% to close +0.20% and the DAX erased gains of +0.93% to close flat.

This morning in Asia markets are off to a mixed start with the Nikkei (+0.33%), Hang Seng (+0.69%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.23%) all up while the Kospi (-0.26%) is down. In terms of overnight data, China’s official November composite PMI continued to soften at 52.8 (vs. 53.1 last month) as both manufacturing (50.0 vs. 50.2 expected) and non-manufacturing PMIs (at 53.4 vs. 53.8 expected) missed expectations. In the details of the manufacturing PMI, new export orders (at 47.0) printed below 50 for the 6th month in a row with new orders also continuing to soften sequentially with the current reading at 50.4 (vs. 50.8 in last month and 53.8 back in May). Japan’s preliminary October industrial production stood at +2.9% mom (vs. +1.2% mom expected) – the highest since January 2015.

Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (-0.17%) are pointing towards a slightly softer start. The BoJ is also set to release its monthly bond-buying plan for December at 5:00 pm Tokyo time (8:00 am BST) today which is likely to be closely watched for any possible tweaks as the BoJ tries to boost trading in JGBs. The minutes from the November FOMC meeting were released yesterday evening, but didn’t change the debate much, especially when compared to the market-moving comments from Chair Powell earlier this week. The minutes said that many Committee members may want to change the “further gradual increases” language in the policy statement to something that “places greater emphasis on the evaluation of incoming data.” This confirms the renewed emphasis on data dependency that Powell and Clarida pushed this week. The minutes also signaled that a technical adjustment to the rate setting framework would likely be needed at the December meeting, i.e. raising the IOER rate only 20bps rather than the full 25bps in order to keep the effective federal funds rate near the middle of the target range.

There were several notable landmarks in markets elsewhere yesterday. The first was the 10-year Treasury briefly passing below 3% – touching an intraday low of 2.995% – for first time since September 18th and WTI oil passing below $50 – hitting a low of $49.41 – for the first time since October 9th last year. To be fair both rebounded off the lows. Ten-year Treasuries ended the day at 3.026% (still down -3.3bps on the day) while WTI made a full reversal to finish the session back above $51 (+2.11%), which is roughly where it’s trading this morning. That rebound appeared to be helped by a Reuters report suggesting that both Russia and Saudi Arabia were discussing the details behind a cut in production.

The rally for Treasuries was given an added boost by yesterday’s data in the US. The highlight was the soft core PCE print for October (+0.1024% vs. +0.2% expected) which resulted in the annual rate falling by one-tenth from an already downwardly-revised +1.94% yoy to +1.77% yoy, the lowest since February. On the back of a dovish Powell on Wednesday, that data was perhaps more fuel to the fire for the dovish camp and could drive more talk of a pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle. It’s worth noting that the healthcare component of the data was soft and that there could be some seasonality in this data so that is something to keep in mind.

The other interesting data point in the US yesterday was the weekly initial jobless claims print, which jumped 10k to 234k (vs. 220k expected) and the highest in six months. The four-week moving average is now at 223k and the highest since July. There was some talk that the Thanksgiving Holiday may have had an impact on the data, however a persistent uptick in the jobless claims data would definitely be food for thought looking ahead. So worth setting a calendar reminder for this print over the next two Thursdays after a long period where the number has been no more than a mild distraction to lunch or breakfast depending on where you are in the world.

Over in Italy, the Government and the European Commission continued to trade barbs, with Conte saying that they “are not indifferent to the reaction of financial markets [but] we can’t back away from the core promises we made to Italians.” There still seems to be movement toward a budget deficit of 2.2% of GDP rather than 2.4%, but Commission VP Dombrovskis said that would be an insufficient cut. Italian Deputy Premier Salvini said that the Italian government is not considering lowering the budget deficit below 2.2% while adding that “if there is a saving we won’t leave the money there unspent, we will invest it for other spending.” Still, the Italian press reported that the EU could give Italy more time before instigating the Excessive Deficit Procedure, i.e. delaying the decision till February 2019. This helped BTPs rally -5.2bps despite tepid demand as the Treasury auctioned 4.25 billion euros of debt across the 10- and 5-year tenors.

On Brexit, we didn’t get a lot of new information yesterday but the pound nevertheless traded -0.35% weaker versus the dollar. EU Chief Negotiator Barnier said that discussions are over and that the current Withdrawal Agreement is the only possible Brexit deal. DUP Leader Foster reiterated her opposition to the deal, saying that there exists a better option. It’s hard to square those two views, which explains where there is so much uncertainty ahead of next month’s Parliamentary vote. Interesting it looks like we’ll have a live televised debate with May Vs Corbyn on primetime TV on Sunday 9th December. The problem is that May has agreed to have it on the BBC whereas Corbyn is leaning towards ITV as he didn’t want it to clash with the finale of “I’m a celebrity get me out of here”. It rather sums up the process at the moment. Overnight, on her way to the G-20 summit, UK PM May said that national divisions over Brexit will widen if lawmakers fail to back her plans in the parliamentary vote next month while adding that there are no alternatives to her current deal as she ruled out another referendum and said Britain won’t be in a Customs Union with the EU and dismissed the Norway option. She also reiterated that she won’t resign in the event of her Brexit deal getting rejected by the UK Parliament.

Coming back to inflation, there was also some disappointment in the German HICP reading which came in at a below market +0.1% mom (vs. +0.2% expected) – and so pushing the annual rate down two tenths to +2.2% yoy. A reminder that we get the broader Euro Area reading today in addition to country level reports from France and Italy.

Apart from the inflation and jobless claims prints, the US also released personal income and personal spending data, which both surprised to the upside and supported the narrative of continued labour market strength for now. Income rose +0.5% mom, the fastest pace since January, while spending rose +0.6%, fastest since March. The housing market continued to show signs of slowing, as home sales fell -2.6% mom, their sixth consecutive decline. That’s the longest such streak since 2014.

In terms of the day ahead, as mentioned at the top the G20 Leaders Summit officially gets underway and continues into the weekend, so expect headlines throughout. As for data, shortly after this hits your emails this morning we’ll get November Nationwide house price data in the UK and October German retail sales numbers. Not long after that we get the preliminary November CPI reading for France before the aforementioned Euro Area reading. In the US the only release scheduled is the November Chicago PMI, which is expected to largely hold steady around October’s level. Away from the data we’re finishing the week with two more ECB speakers, with Mersch and Coeure speaking at separate events. Finally the Fed’s Williams will speak this afternoon on the “Global Economy” at an event in New York.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2RpkXEb Tyler Durden

This is terrible news for Marriott shareholders (and great news for the VC backers of Airbnb).

Marriott shares have fallen in premarket trading after the hotel chain announced news of a massive data breach of its guest registration system at Starwood hotels, the hotel chain that it purchased in September 2016. 

According to a press release, Marriott believes the compromised database had information on up to 500 million guests who had made a reservation at a Starwood property. The information compromised includes sensitive details including their passport numbers (for those who booked at foreign hotels) as well as name, date of birth, dates of their reservation, email address and mailing address. The infiltration dates back to at least September 2014 – before Starwood was purchased by Marriott – and continued through September of this year. Payment card numbers and payment card expiration dates belonging to some of those affected were also stolen, but the payment card numbers were encrypted using Advanced Encryption Standard encryption.

To put these numbers in context, going by sheer volume, the Starwood Hotels hack would be the largest since Yahoo announced that information belonging to roughly 3 billion users had been taken by hackers.

Read the full release below:

BETHESDA, Md.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Marriott has taken measures to investigate and address a data security incident involving the Starwood guest reservation database. On November 19, 2018, the investigation determined that there was unauthorized access to the database, which contained guest information relating to reservations at Starwood properties* on or before September 10, 2018.

On September 8, 2018, Marriott received an alert from an internal security tool regarding an attempt to access the Starwood guest reservation database in the United States. Marriott quickly engaged leading security experts to help determine what occurred. Marriott learned during the investigation that there had been unauthorized access to the Starwood network since 2014. The company recently discovered that an unauthorized party had copied and encrypted information, and took steps towards removing it. On November 19, 2018, Marriott was able to decrypt the information and determined that the contents were from the Starwood guest reservation database.

The company has not finished identifying duplicate information in the database, but believes it contains information on up to approximately 500 million guests who made a reservation at a Starwood property. For approximately 327 million of these guests, the information includes some combination of name, mailing address, phone number, email address, passport number, Starwood Preferred Guest (“SPG”) account information, date of birth, gender, arrival and departure information, reservation date, and communication preferences. For some, the information also includes payment card numbers and payment card expiration dates, but the payment card numbers were encrypted using Advanced Encryption Standard encryption (AES-128). There are two components needed to decrypt the payment card numbers, and at this point, Marriott has not been able to rule out the possibility that both were taken. For the remaining guests, the information was limited to name and sometimes other data such as mailing address, email address, or other information.

Marriott reported this incident to law enforcement and continues to support their investigation. The company has already begun notifying regulatory authorities.

“We deeply regret this incident happened,” said Arne Sorenson, Marriott’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “We fell short of what our guests deserve and what we expect of ourselves. We are doing everything we can to support our guests, and using lessons learned to be better moving forward.”

“Today, Marriott is reaffirming our commitment to our guests around the world. We are working hard to ensure our guests have answers to questions about their personal information, with a dedicated website and call center. We will also continue to support the efforts of law enforcement and to work with leading security experts to improve. Finally, we are devoting the resources necessary to phase out Starwood systems and accelerate the ongoing security enhancements to our network,” Mr. Sorenson continued.

Guest Support

Marriott has taken the following steps to help guests monitor and protect their information:

Dedicated Website and Call Center

We have established a dedicated website (info.starwoodhotels.com) and call center to answer questions you may have about this incident. The frequently-asked questions on info.starwoodhotels.com may be supplemented from time to time. The call center is open seven days a week and is available in multiple languages. Call volume may be high, and we appreciate your patience.
Email Notification

Marriott will begin sending emails on a rolling basis starting today, November 30, 2018, to affected guests whose email addresses are in the Starwood guest reservation database.
Free WebWatcher Enrollment

Marriott is providing guests the opportunity to enroll in WebWatcher free of charge for one year. WebWatcher monitors internet sites where personal information is shared and generates an alert to the consumer if evidence of the consumer’s personal information is found. Due to regulatory and other reasons, WebWatcher or similar products are not available in all countries. Guests from the United States who activate WebWatcher will also be provided fraud consultation services and reimbursement coverage for free. To activate WebWatcher, go to info.starwoodhotels.com and click on your country, if listed, for enrollment.
Marriott is furnishing a Form 8-K with the SEC attaching a copy of this press release and presenting certain other information with respect to the incident.

Starwood brands include: W Hotels, St. Regis, Sheraton Hotels & Resorts, Westin Hotels & Resorts, Element Hotels, Aloft Hotels, The Luxury Collection, Tribute Portfolio, Le Méridien Hotels & Resorts, Four Points by Sheraton and Design Hotels. Starwood branded timeshare properties are also included.

 

via RSS https://ift.tt/2KJ2n7n Tyler Durden

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

Julian Assange is not guilty of any crime. But Washington is going to convict him anyway. Documents are being fabricated to show that Assange met inside the Ecuadoran Embassy in London with Paul Manafort and some Russians.

The logs of all visits to the Embassy have been released and show no such meetings.

This latest fabrication was dumped on the public by the Guardian, formerly a leftwing newspaper but today a MI6 asset. Luke Harding who was leaked the fake documents is either extremely gullible or himself a MI6 asset.

The purpose of the leak is to create in the public’s mind that Assange was involved in “Russiagate” along with Trump and Putin. The fact that no evidence has been found that Russiagate exists except as a made-up allegation to justify a special prosecutor to investigate President Trump has not stopped the continued use of this canard.

Washington and London are relying on the public’s insouciance to shield their shamelessness.

Julian Assange’s life has been ruined because he was a professional journalist who told the truth instead of serving as a shill for the ruling elite. Now the intention is to give him a show trial and to convict him without evidence, relying on presstitutes to spread fake evidence that a meeting that did not occur occurred and with no explanation of how such a meeting if it had actuallly occurred would constitute espionage.

Former British ambassador Craig Murry explains the shameful use of government power against an innocent person that has been unfolding under our eyes for the last six years. What is being done to Assange is as bad as any of Stalin’s show trials and is worse because it is happening in full view in front of Western Democracy.

Here is Ambassador Murray:

November 27, 2018

Assange Never Met Manafort. Luke Harding and the Guardian Publish Still More Blatant MI6 Lies

By Craig Murray

The right wing Ecuadorean government of President Moreno continues to churn out its production line of fake documents regarding Julian Assange, and channel them straight to MI6 mouthpiece Luke Harding of the Guardian.

Amazingly, more Ecuadorean Government documents have just been discovered for the Guardian, this time spy agency reports detailing visits of Paul Manafort and unspecified “Russians” to the Embassy. By a wonderful coincidence of timing, this is the day after Mueller announced that Manafort’s plea deal was over.

The problem with this latest fabrication is that Moreno had already released the visitor logs to the Mueller inquiry. Neither Manafort nor these “Russians” are in the visitor logs.

This is impossible. The visitor logs were not kept by Wikileaks, but by the very strict Ecuadorean security. Nobody was ever admitted without being entered in the logs. The procedure was very thorough. To go in, you had to submit your passport (no other type of document was accepted). A copy of your passport was taken and the passport details entered into the log. Your passport, along with your mobile phone and any other electronic equipment, was retained until you left, along with your bag and coat. I feature in the logs every time I visited.

There were no exceptions. For an exception to be made for Manafort and the “Russians” would have had to be a decision of the Government of Ecuador, not of Wikileaks, and that would be so exceptional the reason for it would surely have been noted in the now leaked supposed Ecuadorean “intelligence report” of the visits. What possible motive would the Ecuadorean government have for facilitating secret unrecorded visits by Paul Manafort? Furthermore it is impossible that the intelligence agency – who were in charge of the security – would not know the identity of these alleged “Russians”.

Previously Harding and the Guardian have published documents faked by the Moreno government regarding a diplomatic appointment to Russia for Assange of which he had no knowledge. Now they follow this up with more documents aimed to provide fictitious evidence to bolster Mueller’s pathetically failed attempt to substantiate the story that Russia deprived Hillary of the Presidency.

My friend William Binney, probably the world’s greatest expert on electronic surveillance, former Technical Director of the NSA, has stated that it is impossible the DNC servers were hacked, the technical evidence shows it was a download to a directly connected memory stick. I knew the US security services were conducting a fake investigation the moment it became clear that the FBI did not even themselves look at the DNC servers, instead accepting a report from the Clinton linked DNC “security consultants” Crowdstrike.

I would love to believe that the fact Julian has never met Manafort is bound to be established. But I fear that state control of propaganda may be such that this massive “Big Lie” will come to enter public consciousness in the same way as the non-existent Russian hack of the DNC servers.

Assange never met Manafort. The DNC emails were downloaded by an insider. Assange never even considered fleeing to Russia. Those are the facts, and I am in a position to give you a personal assurance of them.

I can also assure you that Luke Harding, the Guardian, Washington Post and New York Times have been publishing a stream of deliberate lies, in collusion with the security services.

I am not a fan of Donald Trump. But to see the partisans of the defeated candidate (and a particularly obnoxious defeated candidate) manipulate the security services and the media to create an entirely false public perception, in order to attempt to overturn the result of the US Presidential election, is the most astonishing thing I have witnessed in my lifetime.

Plainly the government of Ecuador is releasing lies about Assange to curry favour with the security establishment of the USA and UK, and to damage Assange’s support prior to expelling him from the Embassy. He will then be extradited from London to the USA on charges of espionage.

Assange is not a whistleblower or a spy – he is the greatest publisher of his age, and has done more to bring the crimes of governments to light than the mainstream media will ever be motivated to achieve. That supposedly great newspaper titles like the Guardian, New York Times and Washington Post are involved in the spreading of lies to damage Assange, and are seeking his imprisonment for publishing state secrets, is clear evidence that the idea of the “liberal media” no longer exists in the new plutocratic age. The press are not on the side of the people, they are an instrument of elite control.

*  *  *

Craig Murray is an author, broadcaster and human rights activist. He was British Ambassador to Uzbekistan from August 2002 to October 2004 and Rector of the University of Dundee from 2007 to 2010.

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Forget “keep calm and carry on” – the message from The Bank of England is simple – Panic!

Bank of England governor Mark Carney said yesterday that a no-deal Brexit could send the pound plunging and trigger a worse recession than the financial crisis as it seems Project Fear is well and truly back in play as Theresa May approaches the vinegar strokes of this Brexit debacle.

As The BBC reports, Carney said the UK economy could shrink by 8% in the immediate aftermath if there was no transition period, while house prices could fall by almost a third. The Bank of England also warned the pound could fall by a quarter.

The Bank’s analysis comes after the Treasury said the UK would be worse offunder any form of Brexit. This Bank’s scenario is not what it expects to happen, but represents a worst-case scenario, based on a so called “disorderly Brexit”. The scenario looks at the five-year period after the UK leaves the EU. But by the end of 2023, the economy is expected to resume growing.

Scared? You should be! Remember this is from the smartest men in the room that told you stocks would crash and the economy collapse if you merely voted for Brexit in 2016.

But, at least one former central banker has come clean this week to admit that The Bank of England’s fearmongering is utter garbage.

As FT Adviser reports, Andrew Sentance, a former Bank of England official and government adviser, dismissed the BoE’s forecasts as “bogus” and politically motivated.

“The reputation of economic forecasts has taken a bad blow today with both UK government and Bank of England appearing to use forecasts to support political objectives. Let’s debate Brexit – which I strongly oppose – rationally without recourse to bogus forecasts.“

“The analysis is highly speculative and extreme. It will add to the view that the Bank is getting unnecessarily involved in politics and that will further undermine perceptions of its independence and credibility.”

Mr Sentance served on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England, the body that sets interest rates, from 2006 to 2011, and was an adviser to UK government in the 1990s and 2000s.

While BoE unleashed its panic forecasts, the bank also carried out “stress tests” on UK banks. This involves assessing whether the banks would withstand a range of economic outcomes, including the hard Brexit scenario outlined above. The Bank of England concluded that all UK banks would be able to survive such an outcome without requiring a bailout.

So all the worst parts of the bible will hit the British economy if a no-deal Brexit occurs… but don’t pull your deposits from UK banks because they’re fine – trusts us!?

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Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

Swiss voters have resoundingly rejected a referendum calling for the Swiss Constitution to take precedence over international treaties and law.

Two-thirds (66.2%) of voters in the November 25 referendum opposed the “self-determination” initiative, put forward by the eurosceptic Swiss People’s Party (Schweizerische Volkspartei, SVP), the largest party in the Swiss parliament.

SVP leaders had argued that the new law was necessary to safeguard national sovereignty from further encroachment by supranational organizations such as the European Union and the United Nations.

The Swiss government countered that the proposal would undermine Switzerland’s economic stability as it would require Bern to amend existing bilateral agreements with the EU, the country’s largest trade partner, to bring them into compliance with the Swiss Constitution.

The proposal’s defeat comes ahead of pending decisions by the Swiss government over whether to sign a wide-ranging EU “framework agreement,” and a controversial UN “migration pact.”

Switzerland is not a member of the EU, but has gained access to the European single market by signing a series of bilateral agreements in which Switzerland has given away large slices of its national sovereignty, including control over boundaries and immigration. In all, Switzerland has more than 120 bilateral agreements that govern its relations with the European Union.

The EU is now pressing Switzerland to sign a comprehensive “framework agreement” that would require Bern to cede even more sovereignty to Brussels. The EU, for instance, wants Switzerland to subject itself to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). If Switzerland complies with the demand, the ECJ would outrank the Swiss Supreme Court as the final arbiter of legal disputes in the country.

The EU has now increased the pressure by resorting to blackmail: Brussels is making its continued recognition of Switzerland’s SIX Swiss Exchange, the fourth-largest stock market in Europe, contingent on Swiss acceptance of the framework agreement. Switzerland’s current stock exchange agreement with the EU expires at the end of December; failure to renew it would deprive the Swiss exchange of EU-based business that generates more than half its volume.

Swiss leaders have said they doubt that any proposed treaty could win the backing of parliament or voters in a referendum under the Swiss system of direct democracy.

Bloomberg News encapsulated the dilemma facing Switzerland:

“The Swiss government now faces the prospect of choosing between two evils: agree to the EU framework deal only to have it torpedoed by voters in a referendum, or renege on the treaty and risk reprisals from Brussels that hurt the economy.“

A key point of contention in Swiss-EU relations revolves around a long-running dispute over the EU’s “Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons.” The agreement, which Switzerland signed in June 1999, allows EU citizens to live and work in Switzerland, and vice versa. The original agreement applied to 15 EU member states, but with the enlargement of the European Union in 2004, 2007 and 2013, the agreement now applies to 28 EU member states, including the poorer countries in Eastern Europe.

In an effort to curb the increasing amount of crime associated with immigration, Swiss voters in November 2010 approved a referendum to deport foreigners who commit serious crimes in Switzerland.

The EU warned that deporting EU citizens for any reason would be a violation of Switzerland’s treaty obligations regarding the free movement of persons. The Swiss parliament, seeking to avoid economic reprisals, eventually passed a watered-down law aimed at reconciling the will of Swiss voters with Switzerland’s obligations under EU law.

SVP MP Adrian Amstutz argued that in its zeal to please the EU, the Swiss parliament’s new deportation law would prove to be worthless in practice:

“According to the parliament’s implementation of the law for the deportation initiative, courts would have the possibility to put aside a deportation — even in the case of the most serious offenses — via the hardship clause. Current legal practices show that judges would frequently make use of this option. As a consequence, hardly any foreign criminals would be deported.”

In February 2014, Swiss voters approved a referendum to reintroduce quotas for immigration from EU countries. Proponents of the quotas argued that foreign workers were driving down wages and increasing demand for housing, health, education and transport.

The EU warned that any restrictions on access to the Swiss labor market would violate the agreement on the freedom of movement of persons, and threatened“serious consequences.” The Swiss parliament again yielded to EU pressure, this time by passing watered-down restrictions on immigration.

Another flashpoint in bilateral relations involves the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). In November 2014, the ECHR prohibited Switzerland from sending Afghan asylum seekers back to Italy. Although Italian authorities had agreed to take them back, the ECHR ruled that doing so would violate Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights (Prohibition of Inhuman and Degrading Treatments) because of overcrowding and poor conditions at Italian asylum facilities.

SVP leader Christoph Blocher criticized the ECHR for ignoring the principle of subsidiarity, which holds that decisions should be taken, if possible, at the local level:

“Don’t we trust federal judges to decide on human rights issues? We had those principles written into our constitution well before the ECHR. The problem with the convention is that it decides things from far away. The consequences, what happens next, don’t concern the judges.”

Martin Schubarth, a former Swiss federal judge, echoed those concerns:

“It is unacceptable that a small panel of [ECHR] judges, who generally lack the expert knowledge about the [Swiss] legislative authority, handle matters in an undemocratic way instead of the [Swiss] authority itself.”

In February 2018, Swiss public television SRF reported that the European Commission had presented the Swiss government with a 19-page “sin list” of Swiss violations of EU law.

Switzerland’s ongoing disputes with the EU, and the concomitant erosion of Swiss sovereignty, prompted the SVP to sponsor the referendum to ensure the precedence of Swiss law.

The sponsor of the initiative, SVP MP Hans-Ueli Vogt, expressed surprise at the scale of the defeat — a rare setback for the SVP, one of the most successful anti-EU parties in Europe — but said he would continue to fight against “creeping EU accession.”

The measure was opposed by a coalition of Swiss business groups, which convincingly argued that the referendum was a question of economics and access to international markets for the export-dependent country. “Ultimately, it is about maintaining prosperity in Switzerland and keeping the companies and jobs here,” said Monika Rühl, director of the business group Economiesuisse.

Some Swiss newspapers described result of the referendum as a “fiasco” and a “serious setback” for the SVP. Others were more circumspect. “The object of the initiative was very legitimate: it was about national sovereignty and its relationship with international law in a globalized world,” noted La Liberté, a paper based in Fribourg. The Geneva-based L’Express added:

“The SVP suffered a defeat because it failed to mobilize and convince beyond its base. The voters wanted a pragmatic assessment between international law and national law. Depending on the situation, one or the other should apply. The definitive prevalence of one over the other, on the other hand, is not shared by the majority.”

La Tribune de Genève wrote: “What the Swiss have supported this Sunday is a pragmatic, negotiated, piecemeal approach to our national interests. Voting is in no way a declaration of love to a European Union in crisis.”

The Swiss People’s Party said that despite the loss, the referendum “brought a welcome and suppressed debate about the relationship between Swiss law and international law and the importance of direct democracy.” The SVP added that its fight for Swiss self-determination would continue:

“First of all, the SVP demands that Switzerland not join the UN migration pact. We are counting on the pledges of the representatives of the other parties, that at the very least it is presented to the parliament with the aim of holding a referendum on the matter, so that Swiss voters can have their say about such a far-reaching pact.

“Secondly, the SVP rejects a one-sided submission to EU institutions, aimed at establishing an institutional connection of Switzerland to the EU apparatus, with a dynamic EU legal takeover and, ultimately, the subordination of Switzerland to the EU Court of Justice. A dynamic adoption of EU law would be another massive erosion of our direct democracy.”

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A very mysterious bluish-green fireball seen streaking above Russia’s high-tech scientific city has sparked a debate that President Vladimir Putin could be developing space weapons.

The flash was spotted by stunned motorists with dashboard cameras mounted on their windshields near the research town of Akademgorodok, an educational and scientific hub in Siberia.

According to the Daily Mail, educational and scientific institutes in the area have been called Putin’s “secret weapon,” which have aided in the development of the country’s high-tech weapons.

The video was caught on several dashcams in the early morning on Tuesday.

The state-run Russia Today reported it as a meteor but acknowledged that scientists were confused by the incident. The video sparked rumors on social media that Moscow was testing “extremely advanced weapons,” while others put on their tinfoil hats and suggested it was a UFO.

Ilya Orlov, deputy director of the Big Novosibirsk Planetarium, told the Daily Mail it was a “beautiful phenomenon” but could not explain what caused it.

“Most likely, this is a flash of bolide, that is, the fall of a bright meteor with a flash,” Orlov said.

“It is all the more surprising because there are no active meteor showers now. It can be either the tail of a [Leonid] meteor shower or a lone meteor. We need to find out,” he added.

Local media outlets said no traces of space rock was found in the region, nor were there any reports of rocket launches or missile tests when the fireball was spotted Tuesday, which has undoubtedly excited the tinfoil hat community – believing that it could have been a UFO.

This is not the first time fears of Russia’s secretive weapons have been raised. Putin used his state-of-the-nation speech in March to deliver a stern warning to the US that Russia possesses hypersonic weapons that can render NATO’s US-led missile defense system completely “useless.”

Russia has “successfully” test-fired hypersonic missiles, one, in particular, the high-precision Kinzhal (Dagger) hypersonic missile was fired from a MiG-31 supersonic interceptor jet in late March that took off from an airfield in the South Military District in Russia’s southwest.

There was evidence from China last month that a similar fireball was indeed a Chinese People’s Liberation Army hypersonic missile, confirmed by Chinese state-run media outlets.

We’ll let you decide what lit up the night sky over Russia earlier this week…

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Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

The deal has been agreed, subject to Parliament. Mrs May now has the uphill task of selling the deal to MPs. The overwhelming majority who have expressed an opinion including both Remainers and Brexiteers have condemned it. As has President Trump. She will be praying for no further asides from him at the G20 in Buenos Aires.

The vote is scheduled for 11 December, after a five-day debate. The Government’s tactic is to rely on Mrs May’s deal being the only one on offer, the alternative being the supposed abyss of a no-deal. The risk to this strategy is that Brexiteers expose the choice as being false and that Mrs May should go back to Brussels and renegotiate. The EU stands ready to reaffirm they will not accept any other deal to cut off this option.

The Treasury and the Bank of England have cranked up their economic and financial models again to forecast maximum disruption in the event Parliament fails to support Mrs May’s deal. However, in the Commons, the Treasury backed off from its responsibility for its post-Brexit forecasts, saying it was based on analysis involving a wide range of government departments. One is left wondering why the Treasury Secretary felt unable to give it his wholehearted support.

The Bank of England has been less delicate in its approach, by claiming we are all doomed. The result after only one day of airing its forecast is a loss of public credibility for the Bank and particularly for Mark Carney, its Governor.

The frighteners extend to a hodgepodge of claims of many things vital to life and employment, put together by government quangos. Shortages of medicines, transport disruption, chemicals for water purification and many more are all documented in eighty different official papers. The deceit is to assume these supplies are provided at an inter-governmental level, and not by profit-seeking businesses, which would surely do everything in their power to secure continuing sales. The Port of Calais is expected to cut off its nose despite its face and turn away traffic.

This line of propaganda seems to be an irresistible line of attack for the Government, accustomed to frightening the populous into a preferred course of action. This is despite the failure of this tactic ahead of the Brexit referendum, when the public decided it was a stinking rat.

What is the deal, and why the fuss?

Britain leaves the EU on 29 March next year and under Mrs May’s plan enters an implementation period when there is no change in current trade arrangements, until at least 1 January 2020. After that, if the trade agreement is not in place (highly unlikely – it takes years to get the EU to agree to trade deals), Britain can either extend the implementation period for a time, or the backstop on the Irish border will be implemented.

The backstop ensures the Irish border would remain open to EU trade, as it is today, until a trade agreement is finally agreed and implemented. Until then, either the whole of the UK continues to be in the customs union, or Northern Ireland alone remains in it, effectively putting a border down the Irish Sea. The backstop, if it is implemented, can only be turned off “when we have fulfilled our commitments on the Irish Border.”

The agreement states that both the EU and the UK will use best endeavours to reach a trade agreement. But given it can be blocked by EU member countries which are not a party to the agreement, this reassurance must be worthless. Even before the ink was dry, Spain forced concessions on Gibraltar, and President Macron of France made it clear France would withhold its consent to a trade agreement if French fishing vessels were denied fishing rights in British waters.

The problem with the agreement is that by not agreeing, EU member states can ensure, in the words of Boris Johnson, Britain remains a vassal state. Worse than that, with this agreement it is a zombie state, a walking-dead captive of the customs union.

Even the Remainers don’t like it, because it is as plain as a pikestaff that Britain is in a far worse position with this agreement than it would be remaining in the EU. It is chained to the customs union with no influence over the regulations imposed upon it. Accordingly, Remainers of all parties are united in the call for a second referendum, which they hope will reverse the first, allowing Britain to remain as a full member of the EU. But to concede a second referendum would be unprecedented, and also an admission of failure by the government. Furthermore, it would take months to go through Parliament, time which it does not have. With no practical alternative, many prominent Remainers are expected to vote against the agreement.

For the Brexiteers, it is already an admission of failure, particularly since the Prime Minister always refused to consider a Plan B. Britain has agreed unconditionally to pay the EU £39bn as the divorce settlement and will continue to pay into Brussels the annual tribute of roughly £9bn until the new trade terms are agreed and implemented (which could be never). While the agreement generally limits the European Court of Justice’s powers to adjudicate on trade and related matters, it means Britain does not have control over future trade arrangements during implementation and backstop periods, and it will be impossible for Britain to strike her own trade deals until that time has passed. Hence President Trump’s remarks.

We have confirmation it is Hotel California: you can check out but never leave. The deal is so unpopular that already the media are saying it will never get through Parliament. The Daily Telegraphhas aggregated various sources of information to estimate 221 MPs will vote for it and 418 against. But much can change in a short fortnight.

Let us look at it from Downing Street’s point of view, to try to understand the Government’s strategy. 96 Conservative MPs have said they will vote against, out of a parliamentary party of 314 (excluding Speaker Bercow). The Democratic Unionist Party, with ten MPs who provide the Conservatives with their slim Commons majority, have also vowed to vote against it. The Labour Party with 257 MPs have said they will vote against it, but there are perhaps 60 Labour rebels. The Scottish National Party has 35 MPs, who will also vote against it. Liberal Democrats, with 12 are probably against it, but may not be united on the threat of no deal.

That leaves 216 Conservatives likely to support the Government (including 94 Ministers), perhaps 240 after the whips have done their work. 74 MPs from the other parties are then required, at least 60 of which must be Labour MPs. It is worth recalling that 64 Labour MPs defied the Labour whip over an amendment tabled to remain in the customs union last December, close to the number of Labour MPs required to rebel this time for Mrs May to win the vote. And that’s assuming Labour isn’t persuaded to abstain, which would guarantee Mrs May gets it passed by a comfortable margin.

Clearly, the key to success is Labour’s intentions, which is why Downing Street is wooing their MPs. However, two weeks ahead of the vote, talk of a heavy defeat for the government looks, on Downing Street’s likely assessment, wide of the mark.

All this assumes Labour will resist the temptation to topple Mrs May and create havoc for the Tories. That is a big assumption, because it is definitely in Labour’s interest to defeat the government to see what opportunities might arise. Consequently, while the Downing Street assessment may turn out to be too optimistic, the Brexit camp cannot afford to be complacent.

Brexiteer tactics

The Brexiteers will concentrate on mustering as much support as possible to reject the proposed agreement. They already have the ten DUP members on side, and 96 Conservatives who have said they will vote against. They need to work on the other 218 Conservative MPs, of which 94 are ministers, leaving a pool of 124 possible votes.

It would help their case enormously if more Brexit-supporting ministers resigned from the government ahead of the vote, so they are likely to be privately encouraged to do so. This would benefit the Brexit cause by fatally undermining the Government’s claim that the agreement is in the spirit of Brexit.

Brexiteers will also have to build cross-party alliances. Above all, they must come up with an alternative strategy acceptable to both Brexiteers and Remainers to force the Government to return to Brussels for better terms, despite Brussels saying the only alternative is no deal.

To achieve the necessary parliamentary support, Brexiteers are likely to focus on the least contentious issue, being the failure to achieve total parliamentary sovereignty in the draft agreement. Even Jeremy Corbin and others on the far left of the Labour Party can agree on this, because they want to be free from all Brussels regulations so that they can nationalise and subsidise unionised industries.

Sovereignty is the one issue the Government cannot argue convincingly, which is why it deflects the issue into one of taking control of immigration. The economic effects, which are a transitional problem, are less important to the bigger picture, but are more immediate to the electorate. For these reasons the Government is focusing on the economic effects, promoting hypothetical problems that grab the headlines and divert attention from the sovereignty issue.

The scope for half-truths and downright deception is enormous and is being exploited by both the Government and allegedly independent analysts. In the last few days, we have been told that stockpiling food has left Amazon short of warehouse space. This follows earlier assertions from Barclays Bank research that extra tariffs on food and drink imports could cost £9.3bn per annum, leading to higher food prices.

This must assume the Chancellor imposes, Trump-like, yet higher import tariffs on food than the ones being dropped on a no-deal Brexit. It might assume sterling will crash (we’ve heard that one before) but ignores the possibility the euro will fall even more. These scare stories are easy to counter and should be given no credence, but the media is always more likely to take as gospel truth the information spoon-fed to it by background government briefings, while questioning reasoned argument from Brexiteers with relative scepticism.

Mrs May’s future

Press reports suggest that Downing Street believes that if the vote is not passed, Mrs May could probably survive if it is rejected by less than a hundred votes. Any more than that, and she is toast.

This is probably too simplistic, and ignores the fact that David Cameron immediately resigned when he lost the Brexit referendum, irrespective of margins. It also relies on the ten DUP MPs continuing to give her a majority, which they have already withdrawn. If she relies on Labour votes, having failed to get sufficient support from her own party (which Downing Street is already doing), she will be ejected whatever the outcome. For the moment, everyone is being very polite, saying she has admirable qualities of perseverance and determination against all odds. And don’t we all love a fighter. This can rapidly elide into being pig-headed, domineering and deliberately misleading.

Act too early, and MPs who wish to ditch her will be accused of disloyalty and naked ambition. Furthermore, Brexiteers do not have control of the agenda. For these reasons, rival candidates for the leadership remain in the shadows. But they will be watching for that change of emphasis, which is likely to come in the wake of the Commons vote, if not before.

The only way Mrs May can save herself and the integrity of the Conservative Party is to cancel the debate and tell Brussels it simply won’t wash. She must remind them of the consequences of their rejection of David Cameron’s demands, and tell them they will have to come up with better terms, otherwise it is no deal.

Will she do it? We shall see. She has some leverage, if she can understand it. Brussels is bust and needs money urgently. The knock-on effects of a no deal might be unpredictable for the UK, but, and this is the point few have taken on board, it would be catastrophic for the EU.

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Some of America’s most influential think tanks and the Pentagon have likely underestimated the number of Chinese nuclear submarines under construction, a new report suggests. 

Satellite imagery of the Bohai Shipyard and Longpo Naval Facility taken by Planet Labs shows that “China does not yet have a credible sea-based deterrent,” Catherine Dill of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey told Defense One. Two of China’s four Jin-class submarines “appear to not be in operation and are undergoing maintenance or repairs at the Bohai shipyard, suggesting to us that credibility is still in question.”

Defense One said that contradicts the US Defense Department’s 2018 China Military Report and the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) report, which had stated that China had four operational Jin-class subs.

The report said there is one additional submarine under construction that the Pentagon missed.

Jeffrey Lewis, a colleague of Dill, discovered that China had one more nuclear submarine in development than previously believed. He observed a total of five submarine hulls in production, three at Longpo and two at the Bohai shipyard, indicating that China’s modernization efforts are ahead of schedule to meeting its goal of eight.

“China is continuing to modernize its nuclear weapons program, broadly,” Dill said. “There’s a big emphasis on the SSBN program because all of their deliverable nuclear weapons are on land-based systems. Expanding into these SSBNs gives China more flexibly and credibility.”

She added, “These observations would not have been possible without the high cadence of the Planet imagery, which gave us 244 days of exploitable imagery to monitor from July 2017 to November 2018.”

By comparison, the US nuclear-armed submarine fleet features 14 Ohio-class subs, which are comparable in size to China’s Jin-class sub and Russia’s Borey-class. 

Boston College Geopolitical Professor Robert Ross, an expert on Chinese defense and security policy, released a new report entitled “The End of US Naval Dominance in Asia,” it warns that at the current rate of modernization by China, US Navy’s global dominance could be displaced sometime in the mid/late 2020s. 

“The rapid rise of the Chinese Navy has challenged US maritime dominance throughout East Asian waters,” Ross writes. “The US, though, has not been able to fund a robust shipbuilding plan that could maintain the regional security order and compete effectively with China’s naval build-up.”

“The resulting transformation of the balance of power has led to fundamental changes in US acquisitions and defense strategy. Nonetheless, the US has yet to come to terms with its diminished influence in East Asia.”

Ross provides documentation that shows China is well on its way to deploying a naval fleet that could rival the US, but increasingly more modern. 

Sometime around 2038, roughly two decades from now, China will surpass the US in military spending, and become the world’s dominant superpower not only in population and economic growth – China is set to overtake the US economy by no later than 2032 – but in military strength and global influence as well.

While it might not seem like much when American think tanks and the Pentagon underestimated the number of Chinese nuclear submarines in development, it could otherwise show how unprepared the West is for a rising China. 

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