Judges usually instruct juries using so-called “pattern jury instructions”—instructions prepared by the court system for judges to use. In principle, judges can write their own, or adopt instructions sought by one or both parties, but practically judges and lawyers heavily rely on the pattern instructions.
Until recently, the comments to the California pattern jury instruction for carrying-a-loaded-firearm prosecutions (CALCRIM No. 2530) noted that the instruction should be given in Taser carrying cases, and presumably that the jury should be told,
“[A] Taser is a firearm and can be a loaded firearm within [firearms carrying bans].” (People v. Heffner (1977) 70 Cal.App.3d 643, 652 [139 Cal.Rptr. 45].)
But while Heffner did so state, it was speaking about early Tasers, in which “[t]he contactors [were] deployed … by the electrical ignition of a squib containing four-fifths of a grain of smokeless powder.” But modern Tasers don’t use gunpowder, precisely to avoid a similar 1976 federal decision that held that they were firearms. Today, then, Heffner would likely no longer be binding. But so long as the CALCRIM notes mentioned Heffner, that would increase the likelihood that prosecutors would recommend instructions that said that a Taser was a firearm, judges would adopt them, and then juries would consider them.
I’m pleased to say that the 2019 CALCRIM instructions no longer make this obsolete claim (see also here): they no longer cite Heffner or say that Tasers are firearms. Some time ago, Charles Nichols had mentioned the obsolete instruction to me, I mentioned it to someone I knew who was involved in revising the jury instructions, and apparently the decisionmakers listened (though it may well be that many other people raised similar objections as well). So sometimes things do get better, with urging and patience.
from Latest – Reason.com http://bit.ly/2wrAvOV
via IFTTT
After the U.S. ended all sanction waivers for Iranian oil customers on May 2, Iran’s crude oil exports have been significantly down this month compared to April and more than 2 million bpd off their 2.5-million-bpd peak in April 2018, just before the U.S. withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and moved to re-impose sanctions on Iran’s oil industry.
According to industry sources and tanker-tracking data cited by Reuters on Wednesday, Iran’s oil exports this month have plummeted to 400,000 bpd, which is less than half of Iranian oil exports last month.
The United States had given eight countries six-month waivers to continue buying oil from Iran after the U.S. re-imposed sanctions on the Iranian oil industry in November. The United States, however, pursued a maximum pressure campaign against Iran last month and put an end to all sanction waivers for all Iranian oil buyers, beginning in May.
Most of the Iranian oil shipments are going this month to Asia, according to tanker tracking data from Refinitiv Eikon and to two industry sources.
One of the sources told Reuters they expected Iran’s average oil shipments this month to be around 400,000 bpd, but the other source noted that exports could hit 500,000 bpd.
Some of Iran’s oil exports are believed to have been already under the radar as Iran is said to have increased the use of the ‘switch-off-the-transponder’ tactic, which makes tracking its exports via the AIS systems increasingly difficult and opaque.
Earlier this month, Iran was spotted resuming illicit shipping of oil to Syria, with a million barrels of oil arriving in early May, for a first such delivery since the start of this year. Experts believe that Iran will be re-opening and using more of its illicit oil channels to keep oil trade and continue getting some revenues from its most precious export commodity.
The inability to fully track Iran’s oil supply is making OPEC and allies’ task to asses global supply to the market increasingly difficult, as opaque data about Iran adds to mounting uncertainty over oil supply disruptions elsewhere, clouding OPEC’s outlook on global supply for the rest of this year.
via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2I8RTNE Tyler Durden
Two months ago, analysts at Bank of America proclaimed that “spring is coming” for the European economy after it slipped into a mild recession late last year. Unfortunately, a massive stimulus injection from Beijing has failed to spark a global reflationary wave, and on Wednesday, Germany – the largest and most important constituent of the European economy – revealed that its labor market had hit a major pothole, the latest sign that the economic pain on the Continent may have only just begun.
With global trade in free fall…
…And with slumping sales already weighing on the global auto industry, a critical engine (no pun intended) of Europe’s industrial economy, EU bureaucrats now find themselves in the uncomfortable position: They’re at the mercy of Washington and President Trump, who has been threatening to open up another front in his trade war by slapping ‘Section 232″ national security tariffs on imports of cars and car parts (with exceptions for USMCA partners Canada and Mexico).
But ironically, President Trump’s decision to delay his decision by six months to allow more time for negotiations with Europe and Japan might not make much of a difference: Because, with a leadership change coming in October, Brexit still unresolved and a strong showing by populist parties in the EU Parliamentary vote, Europe simply isn’t in a good position to negotiate
“You’re seeing an EU that is fighting fires on so many fronts that I just don’t think they are going to be confident and able to negotiate that deal” with the U.S., said Heather Conley, head of the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
As Bloomberg explains, Trump’s auto-tariff deadline will hit just as the new European Commission takes over from the body led by Jean Claude Juncker, who successfully negotiated a trade truce with Trump last year during a meeting at the White House. With the current Commission now entering a lame duck phase, its mandate to negotiate will be severely weakened.
Adding another layer of complication, France and Germany have competing priorities that could make it more difficult to reach a final deal.
France’s Emmanuel Macron led some EU member states in resisting U.S. efforts to include agriculture in any transatlantic discussions, something the EU insists Trump gave away last July as part of the Rose Garden truce. Though many in Washington, including Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, have said any deal that didn’t include agriculture wouldn’t get through Congress.
Germany, which exported 27.2 billion euros of cars and car parts in 2018, is more concerned about Trump’s threat of automobile tariffs than protecting European agricultural interests. The home of Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Porsche generated a surplus of 22 billion euros in automotive trade with U.S. last year.
In a discouraging sign of things to come, trade talks in Washington and Paris this month made little progress, which leaves more muddling or a sharp escalation as the most likely paths.
Brussels’ best hope for averting more tariffs would be Trump’s decision to risk angering auto workers in South Carolina and other key states by moving ahead with the auto tariffs, which American car makers like GM and Ford vehemently oppose.
But as the market fallout from the China trade spat has showed, Trump has increased tolerance for painful decisions. So that’s hardly something Europe can bank on.
via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2XheNJ0 Tyler Durden
Judges usually instruct juries using so-called “pattern jury instructions”—instructions prepared by the court system for judges to use. In principle, judges can write their own, or adopt instructions sought by one or both parties, but practically judges and lawyers heavily rely on the pattern instructions.
Until recently, the comments to the California pattern jury instruction for carrying-a-loaded-firearm prosecutions (CALCRIM No. 2530) noted that the instruction should be given in Taser carrying cases, and presumably that the jury should be told,
“[A] Taser is a firearm and can be a loaded firearm within [firearms carrying bans].” (People v. Heffner (1977) 70 Cal.App.3d 643, 652 [139 Cal.Rptr. 45].)
But while Heffner did so state, it was speaking about early Tasers, in which “[t]he contactors [were] deployed … by the electrical ignition of a squib containing four-fifths of a grain of smokeless powder.” But modern Tasers don’t use gunpowder, precisely to avoid a similar 1976 federal decision that held that they were firearms. Today, then, Heffner would likely no longer be binding. But so long as the CALCRIM notes mentioned Heffner, that would increase the likelihood that prosecutors would recommend instructions that said that a Taser was a firearm, judges would adopt them, and then juries would consider them.
I’m pleased to say that the 2019 CALCRIM instructions no longer make this obsolete claim (see also here): they no longer cite Heffner or say that Tasers are firearms. Some time ago, Charles Nichols had mentioned the obsolete instruction to me, I mentioned it to someone I knew who was involved in revising the jury instructions, and apparently the decisionmakers listened (though it may well be that many other people raised similar objections as well). So sometimes things do get better, with urging and patience.
from Latest – Reason.com http://bit.ly/2wrAvOV
via IFTTT
US equity futures and global stocks rebounded on Thursday as traders took a break from selling stocks and pumping money into safe-haven bonds and the dollar, awaiting the latest headlines in the ongoing trade war.
With just two days left in what has so far been the most turbulent month of the year, investors are busy squaring up positions, shaken by a violent escalation in trade war which has left many traders dazed and confused and the S&P back under 2,800 but above its 200 day moving average for now.
US equity futures drifted higher in the overnight session, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 advanced, with tech among the biggest gainers, a day after posting its biggest drop in nearly three weeks. European stocks nudged 0.2%-0.5% higher having lost a third of the 15% gain they had been carrying into May, the major currencies paused, while German Bund yields climbed for the first time in four days having hit record lows.
Asian stocks were little changed, with MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan slipping to a fresh four-month low before finding a bit of traction to edge up 0.1% into the close. Japan, Hong Kong and Shanghai falling while South Korean, Indian and Indonesian equities advanced as gains in the technology sector were offset by declines in health care and consumer staples. The Topix gauge fell 0.3% to its lowest level since January, led by Japan Communications Inc. and Avant Corp while the Nikkei slumped 0.5%. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.3% after the PBOC’s latest liquidity injection was a sharp dip from Wednesday’s 250bn yuan, with China Life Insurance Co. contributing the most to the index decline.
Elsewhere in Asia, Australian stocks shed 0.85% as local miners suffered the worst month for copper prices since 2016 having slumped over 9%. Indian equities advanced for a fourth day in five amid continued optimism that Prime Minster Narendra Modi will adopt more policies to support economy.
As usual traders were focused on the war of trade, tech and words between Washington and Beijing. “We oppose a trade war but are not afraid of a trade war,” Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Hanhui said on Thursday in Beijing, when asked about the tensions with the United States. “This kind of deliberately provoking trade disputes is naked economic terrorism, economic chauvinism, economic bullying.”
“The equity markets are in the midst of pricing in a long-term trade war, with participants shaping their portfolios in anticipation of a protracted conflict,” said Soichiro Monji, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.
“The upcoming G20 summit could provide the markets with relief, as the United States and China could use the event to begin negotiating again over trade,” he added, referring to the June 28-29 gathering of leaders in Japan.
In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.27% after falling to a nearly two-year low of 2.21% Wednesday, with the 3M-10Y yield curve staying deep in inverted territory, most recently at -10bps.
“What’s going on in Treasury markets is ultimately a repricing of growth expectations,” JPMorgan’s John Bilton said on Bloomberg TV. “We don’t see a recession coming in the next 12 months even allowing for the yield-curve inversion we’ve seen, typically that’s a signal that has a long lead time.”
In FX, the dollar traded at a five-month high ahead of first-quarter revised GDP due later that could give clues on the direction of U.S. interest rates. The dollar was little changed at 109.68 yen after bouncing back from a two-week low of 109.150 and the euro steadied at $1.1132 following three successive days of losses. “The strength in the dollar is surprising given that markets are now expecting multiple rate cuts by 2020,” Commerzbank FX strategist Ulrich Leuchtmann said.
In commodities, oil prices rose modestly following volatile trading on Wednesday, when oil prices fell to near three-month lows at one point as trade war fears gripped the commodity markets. WTI futures were up 0.66% at $59.20 per barrel after brushing $56.88 the previous day, their lowest since March 12. Brent crude added 0.37% to $69.71 per barrel. Trade worries have weighed on oil but supply constraints linked to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ output cuts and political tensions in the Middle East have offered some support.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,790.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 371.84
MXAP down 0.09% to 152.43
MXAPJ up 0.2% to 498.00
Nikkei down 0.3% to 20,942.53
Topix down 0.3% to 1,531.98
Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 27,114.88
Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 2,905.81
Sensex up 0.9% to 39,853.99
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 6,392.13
Kospi up 0.8% to 2,038.80
German 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to -0.16%
Euro up 0.05% to $1.1137
Italian 10Y yield fell 4.1 bps to 2.269%
Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.742%
Brent futures down 0.2% to $69.34/bbl
Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,276.30
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 98.16
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
A succession of domestic dilemmas on both sides of the Atlantic threaten to frustrate efforts at a U.S.-EU trade pact before they’ve even begun. It’s been 10 months since talks have gone anywhere meaningful with European officials frustrated with a Trump administration that’s distracted by the breakdown in talks with China and also issues with Japan
China’s grip on the global market for rare-earth metals gives it the ability to target American weaponry in its trade war with the U.S. Rare earths have been thrust into the spotlight by a series of media reports in China signaling Beijing is gearing up to use the minerals as a counter in its trade battle with Washington
Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of investment management firm Bridgewater Associates, said Wednesday that he viewed the U.S.-China conflict as more than a “trade war” and that increasing export controls would be a major escalation
A second referendum is preferable to a general election to resolve Brexit, according to U.K.’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond. Candidates to succeed Theresa May are honing their pitches amid deep divisions over whether to leave the European Union without a deal in October
Italy will tell the European Commission that any budget tightening this year would jeopardize a sluggish economic recovery, pushing back in its reply to a demand from Brussels to explain the nation’s increasing debt load, newspapers reported Thursday
The U.K. will need interest-rate increases if Brexit goes ahead smoothly, according to Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden. His comments echo those of BOE Governor Mark Carney, who spent much of his last press conference making the case for faster rate hikes than money markets imply
Australia’s GDP growth will slow to a decade low despite cushioning provided by de-synchronized movements in house prices and commodity prices, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. Australia 1Q business investment falls the most since Sept. 2016
The slump in global yields as investors seek out trade-war havens is increasing speculation in Tokyo that the Bank of Japan may cut bond purchases again in June. The central bank could lower the target purchase range for 10-25 year maturities in its monthly plan on Friday, according to Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities
Oil rebounded to climb back above $59 after the release of an industry report showing a much bigger than expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to form a government by Wednesday’s deadline, opting instead for new elections that thrust both his future and the Trump administration’s peace plan into question
Asian equity markets mostly tracked the declines of their counterparts on Wall St where all majors extended on losses amid little in the way of catalysts to inspire a rebound and as participants looked ahead to upcoming US GDP and PCE inflation. Furthermore, trade uncertainty lingered, and technical selling was at play in which the DJIA briefly slipped below the 25K level and the S&P 500 tested its 200DMA to the downside. As such, ASX 200 (-0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) were subdued following the weak lead from their global peers with only the telecoms sector bucking the trend in Australia, while sentiment in Tokyo continued to be hampered as USD/JPY remained at a sub-110.00 level. Hang Seng (-0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) were negative amid no signs of trade tensions abating as China’s Global Times Editor suggested US is shifting from protecting its interest to destroying China in its crackdown on Huawei. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower as they tracked the pullback in T-notes but with downside stemmed by support around the 153.00 level and after improved results at the 2yr auction.
Top Asian News
Sakurai’s Caution on Stimulus Signals Diverging Opinions at BOJ
Short Seller Aandahl Targets China Apparel-Maker Anta Sports
Anta Slumps Most in 15 Months as Blue Orca Recommends Short
Singapore Minister Bats Away Criticism Over GIC, Temasek Pay
Major European Indices [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%] opened, and have remained, positive; diverting from the poor performance seen overnight in Asia-Pac indices which were largely subdued in sympathy with Wall St. As such, sectors are predominantly in the green with some outperformance in Energy names, although the sector has been weighed on by the recent sell off in oil prices, with Brent currently in negative territory. While the defensive utilities and healthcare sectors are underperforming given the broad risk-on sentiment this morning. In spite of the positivity across bourses, notable individual movers are sparse. Axel Springer (+21.3%) have moved substantially higher following reports that KKR are to make a bid to take the Co. private, with the Co. having been valued at EUR 4.9bln. Separately, Daily Mail & General Trust (+9.6%) have printed higher this morning post results, where they stated FY outlook is currently in-line with guidance. Also, post-earnings, but at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 are Johnson Matthey (-4.1%). Finally, Wirecard (1.3%) are at the top of the DAX (+0.6%) after announcing a strategic partnership with XBN relating to international e-commerce.
Top European News
Italy Set to Warn Against Budget Tightening in Reply to EU
U.K. Will Need Hikes If Brexit Goes Smoothly, BOE’s Ramsden Says
ECB Seen Offering Generous Loans to Banks to Boost Feeble Growth
Watches of Switzerland Gains After London Share Offering
In FX, the broad Dollar and the index trades relatively flat thus far, albeit still north of the 98.000 level, as participants await a barrage of tier 1 US data in the form of Q1 GDP (2nd estimate), Core PCE, advances goods trade balance and initial jobless claims. DXY fluctuated between a reasonable 98.08-24 band for now, ahead of some mild resistance around the 98.37-40 mark. US-China news-flow has consisted of MOFCOM reiterations wherein the Chinese noted that tariffs will not solve trade imbalance and will not accept a deal which hurts sovereignty and pride. Nonetheless, focus of today will remain on the aforementioned US data with expectations for the GDP figure to be revised marginally lower (3.1% vs. Prev. 3.2%) whilst the Core PCE Q1 prelim figure is expected to be unchanged at 1.3% (FOMC noted that the recent dip in PCE is transitory) and initial jobless claims are expected to tick slightly higher to 215k from 211k. Elsewhere, Citi’s month-end FX hedge rebalancing model indicates moderate buying of the USD at month end, with the signal (ex-USD/JPY) measuring just over +0.5 historical standard deviations across all crosses.
AUD,NZD,CAD – A firmer risk appetite or perhaps some consolidation from yesterday’s decline sees the risk currencies on a firmer footing this morning. AUD/USD has shrugged off the dismal Building Approval figures overnight ahead of the much anticipated RBA meeting next week. UBS believes the AUD is “too short for its own good” heading into the weekend, adding that “only a complete equity meltdown could drive the Aussie lower at this stage”. In terms of technicals, AUD/USD trades within a relatively tight 0.6917-36 range ahead of resistance at 0.6940. Meanwhile, the Kiwi is largely moving in tandem with its Aussie counterpart after showing little reaction to the NZ budget, in which it sees the 2018/19 cash balance at -2.785bln vs. the Prev. forecast of -4.993bln. NZD/USD also remains within a tight range with the antipodeans eyeing Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI following the aforementioned US data. Elsewhere, the Loonie nurses some of yesterday’s post-BOC loses, with the aid of rising oil prices amid a much wider than expected build in crude stocks reported by APIs last night. In terms of technical, USD/CAD hovers around the 1.3500 mark having moved in a 1.3493-3520 range, with support flagged at 1.3490. Looking ahead for the CAD, current account data is due at 1330BST whilst BoC’s Wilkins is due to give a speech around 1930BST.
EUR,GBP – Little changed and trading mostly at the whim of the Greenback amid tentative newsflow. EUR/USD remains within a tight 20 pip range (1.1125-45) with support flagged at 1.1125 and 1.1105. In terms of upside, resistance levels are noted at 1.1155 ahead of 1.1170 (with 1bln in option expiries at strike 1.1175-85). Similarly, the Pound has done little on the day thus far and GBP/USD remains within a 1.2612-39 band with little new to report on the Brexit front. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP is currently flat on the day around within a 0.8810-25 with resistance around 0.8845-50.
CHF,JPY – Both safe haven currencies are marginally weaker vs. the Buck amid the rebound in risk sentiment in early EU trade. USD/JPY remains above 109.50, having tested the level overnight, with resistance flatted at 109.80-85, whilst USD/CHF eyes 1.01 to the upside as it flirts around the top of today 1.0072-94 range.
EM – Lira remains the outperformer amongst its EM counterpart as the US-Turkey does not seem to be detreating as (fast as) expected, following a phone call between the two President yesterday in which they agreed to meet on the side-lines of the G20 summit in June. USD/TRY is not back below the 6.00 figure and closer to 5.95, ahead of President Erdogan’s presentation of his judicial reform strategy programme at the presidential palace at 1200BST following by a meeting of the National Security Council at 1300BST.
In commodities, WTI (+0.3%) and Brent (-0.8%) futures are mixed with the former relatively flat whilst the latter has failed to hold onto its post-API gains in which US crude stocks showed a wider-than-forecast drawdown (-5.27mln vs. Exp. -0.9mln). This mornings downside in Brent was exacerbated as 69.0/bbl was taken out to the downside, with Brent currently trading around 68.80/bbl. News-flow for the complex has been light, although amidst the little clarity in regard to the OPEC/OPEC+ meeting schedule, the Azeri Energy Minister noted that the meeting will likely take place in early July (touted dates include July 3rd/4th). As a reminder, the DoEs will be release later today at 1600BST amid US’ market absence on Monday. Elsewhere, gold prices (-0.2%) are marginally pressured amid the improvement in the risk tone. Meanwhile, copper prices remain near 4-month lows due to a weak performance in China. Further for the red metal, supply side disruptions are to keep an eye on after Chile’s CODELCO mine workers voted in favour of a strike in the Chuquicamata mine which is the largest open-pit copper mine in the world.
US Event Calendar
8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 3.0%, prior 3.2%; Personal Consumption, est. 1.2%, prior 1.2%; Core PCE QoQ, est. 1.3%, prior 1.3%
8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 214,000, prior 211,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.66m, prior 1.68m
8:30am: Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.3%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.1%
9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 60.3
10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 3.8%; NSA YoY, est. 0.1%, prior -3.2%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Today sees the start of the cricket World Cup here in England. A massive event for a large part of the global population and a complete nonevent for an even bigger part of the global population. I’ve mentioned this before so apologies if you remember the story but the last time it was hosted in England 20 years ago I was on the brink of pop stardom as I sang on the Barmy Army’s (England’s supporters club) “Come on England” pop song. We were lined up to appear on all the major UK TV current affairs and pop shows the week of the release. I was extremely excited. However, the problem was we delayed the release of the single to the start of the knockout stages to ensure maximum publicity. The flaw in the plan that no-one considered at the time was that England might get knocked out in the group stages. Sadly they did, one day before the song was released and the knockout stages begun. So the wave of publicity shrivelled up and died just as record shops got their deliveries. In all fairness, it did shoot into the national charts that week at a very respectable no.45, which at least allows me to say I’ve sung on a top 50 single. For those who want to see the awful video, please feel free to see the link on my Bloomberg page header or email me and I’ll send it to you. I appear for a few frames throughout with the first glance at 22 seconds. It was a low budget affair with the theme being based on “goodies” versus “baddies” from history as that’s what the prop team had in their cupboard. The star turn was Faye from pop band Steps who was captain of the goodies from history for some reason. Joining her were the likes of Winston Churchill. On the baddies side Saddam Hussein was captain. It has a few celebrities in it but in reality it’s truly awful. Anyway good luck to England over the next 6 weeks!!
Unlike England in 1999, there’s no doubt that the global risk sell-off has gathered momentum this week but as we’ll see later risk assets did bounce off their lows after Europe went home last night. The next big event will be the latest Chinese PMI early tomorrow morning, which is expected to dip from 50.1 to 49.9 and below the psychologically important 50 level, which normally indicates contraction. In reality, the relationship isn’t quite that simple but there’s no doubt that recession fears are rising across markets. As for other imminent events to look out for, I was speaking to DB’s man in Washington (Frank Kelly) last night and he pointed out that US VP Pence will give a very important speech on US-China relations on Tuesday (June 4th), which is the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square incident. Frank was of the opinion that it could be pretty hawkish given the signs out of Washington and his previous speeches on the matter. So watch this space.
Back to the recession fears and two of the Fed’s preferred yield curve measures – the 3m10y and 18m3m 3m – hit new lows yesterday at -9.5bps (-1.1bps on the day) and -50.1bps (-7.6bps), respectively. Both have now eclipsed their March lows and in fact you have to go back to the depths of the financial crisis to find the last time they were lower. A quick look at our screens now shows that all measures of 3m, 6m and 1y curves from 1y to 10y are inverted. The 2y curve is inverted at 3y and 5y but marginally positive at 2y7y (at 5.1bps) while the closely followed 2y10y is at 15.2bps and in fact was marginally steeper on the day yesterday (+1.4bps). This still remains our favourite recession indicator as we discussed in our “Yield Curve 101” note here . Indeed ahead of the last 9 recessions, this measure of the curve has always inverted beforehand with the earliest inversion to recession timing being 8 months and the average being nearer 12-18 months. As mentioned in our spread forecasts update, I think we still have a minimum of 12 months left in this US cycle (outside of a complete and sudden meltdown in global trade) but my confidence of an extended cycle beyond that is low given we’re close to an inversion and with other indicators we have previously discussed suggesting we are quite late cycle. So my views of a sell-off this summer are trade oriented at the moment rather than end of cycle oriented. However, the economic worries are building.
The broad curve flattening (with the exception of 2y10y) came despite fairly small eventual moves in cash treasuries, where the 10-year yield fell -0.5bps and the 2-year yield fell -1.8bps. That still took the 10-year to a new 20-month low, but it was well off the intraday trough of being -5.8bps on the day. Bunds also hit -0.1797% intraday yesterday – before closing at -0.1788% – and as a reminder the low mark back in July 2016 was -0.189%. So we’re only a sneeze away from those levels now. The rest of the European sovereign market rallied as well,including -4.2bps rally for BTPs despite the risk-off, and a -6.8bps rally in Portugal. The S&P 500 (-0.69%), DOW (-0.87%) and NASDAQ (-0.79%) all ended in the red, though they all rallied off their lows. Counterintuitively, cyclical sectors, including materials, financials, and industrials, actually outperformed, with losses instead concentrated in defensives and real estate. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (-1.43%) had its worst day in nearly 3 weeks – albeit partly as a result of playing catch up to the moves in the US late Tuesday. The move in rates also saw European Banks fall -1.56%, which puts them down now -15.77% from the April highs. For comparison, US Banks are down -7.60% from the recent highs. Meanwhile, the VIX rose +0.4pts to 17.87 yesterday, while EM FX and equities ended up +0.21% and +0.65%, respectively.
WTI oil prices initially fell as much as -3.82% before rallying back as investors first digested the news that Russia is pushing back against holding an OPEC+ meeting on June 25-26, pushing instead for July 3-4. This seemingly routine discussion has been interpreted by some as a tacit signal that Russia does not want to renew the December 2018 supply agreement. However, prices bounced back to end the day only -0.6% lower and are up +0.7% in Asia after a bigger fall than expected in US inventories.
This morning in Asia markets are trading on the softer side with the Nikkei (-0.85%), Hang Seng (-0.28%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.83%) all lower while the Kospi (+0.33%) is up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.18% continuing a little of the late rally back from last night. In other news, negative rhetoric around the US-China trade war continues with China’s Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Zhang Hanhui saying at a briefing today that deliberately provoking trade disputes is economic terrorism, economic hegemony and economic chauvinism. Note that it’s Ascension Day across parts of Europe today so there will be some countries out on holiday.
Back to yesterday and in truth there wasn’t a great deal of new news. The price action more appeared to reflect some of the fallout from recent reports of China potentially cutting exports of rare earth materials, adding to the long line of evidence that de-escalation is no nearer. The move below 2,800 on the S&P 500 was also seen as an important technical break at the same time as curves flattened. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that the US had warned Europe that its Iran ‘workaround’ could face sanctions. Elsewhere, it’s worth noting that yesterday’s BoC meeting – while not hugely interesting – was the first G7 central bank meeting since the recent trade escalation period. However, the comments on trade were fairly balanced, with the BoC noting that “the recent escalation of trade conflicts is heightening uncertainty about economic prospects. In addition, trade restrictions introduced by China are having direct effects on Canadian exports. In contrast, the removal of steel and aluminum tariffs and increasing prospects for the ratification of CUSMA will have positive implications for Canadian exports and investment.”
Turning to US politics, where attention was dominated by Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s first public comments in almost two years. He said that “under long-standing department policy, a president cannot be charged with a federal crime while he is in office,” though “if we had had confidence that the president clearly did not commit a crime, we would have said so.” President Trump greeted the remarks by tweeting “Nothing changes from the Mueller Report (…) The case is closed!” On the other hand, leading Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden said via a spokesman that impeachment “may be unavoidable.” It is likely that this drama will continue to linger over the coming months.
In European politics, the EU Commission formally sent Italy a letter confirming that the country risks disciplinary action unless it takes remedial actions. This was a legal requirement under the EU’s governing treaties, and Italy now has two days to respond. The more interesting item to watch will be Italy’s 2020 budget, due by end of September, which could include fiscally costly items like the flat tax and no VAT, which is more likely to spark a substantive confrontation with the Commission.
In other news, it was a quiet day for data yesterday with the only release in the US being the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, which rose +2pts to 5 in May, albeit below expectations for a 7 reading. That’s unlikely to move the dial much for expectations for next week’s ISM print. Prior to this in Europe we saw the May CPI reading in France rise only +0.2% mom (vs. +0.3% expected) while unemployment in Germany in May unexpectedly rose one-tenth to 5.0%. That’s the first time unemployment has ticked higher since November 2013; however, it appeared to be mostly down to a technical reclassification. Swedish GDP printed at 0.6% qoq, compared with expectations for 0.2%, but the details of the report showed a deterioration in consumption and investment, with the outperformance driven almost entirely by net exports.
Looking ahead to the rest of today, we’ll have to wait until this afternoon for the main data highlights with the second reading of Q1 GDP due in the US. Following a stronger than expected +3.2% qoq saar preliminary reading, the consensus expects a small downward revision to +3.0%; however, our economists note that in light of last week’s downward revisions to core durable goods orders and the latest quarterly services survey, it is possible that Q1 growth slips below 3%. Also due out this afternoon will be the latest claims reading, April advance goods trade balance, April retail and wholesale inventories and April pending home sales. Away from that, we’re due to hear from Fed Vice Chair Clarida at 5pm BST when he speaks to the economic club of New York, while US Secretary of State Pompeo is due to travel to meet German Chancellor Merkel in Berlin.
via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2HKwbjZ Tyler Durden
What had been advertised as a ‘great trade debate’ between Fox Business prime time host Trish Regan and CGTN host Liu Xin was broadcast last night on Fox Business. But anybody who was expected a heated exchange was probably disappointed.
Instead of a politically charged back-and-forth, Regan ended up interviewing Liu, asking her to share Beijing’s perspective in the trade fight, which Liu did without employing any of the strident rhetoric that has lately been employed by Beijing.
Liu started by correcting Regan, who had said that Liu was a member of the Chinese Communist Party. Liu asserted that this isn’t true. What followed was a staid discussion about tariffs, the nature of state capitalism, Beijing’s forced technology transfers and other important issues in the trade fight.
Asked whether the trade war could reach an amicable resolution, Liu said the “Chinese government has made its position very clear…US negotiators must treat China with respect.”
Earlier, Regan stressed that “trade wars are never good…they’re not good for anyone.”
Liu apparently surprised Regan by saying that she believes Beijing should lower some of its tariffs as well.
Responding to a question from Regan, Liu said that tariffs should be lifted altogether. Offered a hypothetical about Huawei possibly being granted access to the American market in exchange for sharing its technology (effectively putting the ‘forced technology transfer’ shoe on the other foot), Liu said that would be fine – so long as Huawei was paid for its technology.
As we explained last night, Regan challenged Liu to a debate after Liu accused her of ‘economic warmongering’ and being “all emotion and accusation supported with little substance.”
According to a writeup about the debate in China’s Global Times, the fact that the debate made headlines shows “that there was too little effective communication between Beijing and Washington.”
Anyway, the debate has made headlines. This shows that there was too little effective communication between Beijing and Washington. The US is a country where the press is largely free but their reports about the trade war and China have been colored with views of the US political elite. The voice that reflects China’s views can hardly spread in the US. American media outlets would censor China’s voices to fit the agenda set by the US administration, thus rendering the message going across almost ineffectual.
There were no big flaws in the anchors’ performance in the debate. Regan was aggressive while talking about China in an earlier broadcast, but this time she was restrained – more like an anchor. In the meantime, Liu was humble and candid. The whole dialogue was cordial.
GT also accused Regan and millions of Americans of not understanding how the Chinese system works, as evidenced by Regan’s mistaken assumption that Liu is a member of the Communist Party. Though its 16 minute run time was ‘much shorter than people expected,’ GT said the debate was ‘conducive to better trade relations’. “It is better to make such efforts rather than desisting from not trying to have effective communication between China and the US.”
Once the debate was confirmed, a post announcing the debate on Sina Weibo swiftly went viral. But unfortunately for Chinese viewers, the debate won’t be aired in China (CGTN said it couldn’t carry the footage because Fox owns the copyright).
Because of the satellite delay between New York and Beijing, the flow of the interview was repeatedly interrupted by the two hosts accidentally interrupting each other.
At the close of the interview, Liu invited Regan to Beijing for further debate.
via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2WrXmIL Tyler Durden
There is a pall hanging over North London this morning we shall not dwell upon.
Instead, let’s be gloomy about markets and prospects instead. With much of Europe out on holiday – which means the weekend has effectively started – stocks continue to wobble to the China trade war beat. We have the added spice of Europe being unable to coordinate any particular response to renewed US trade threats. US numbers look likely to be weaker – which will no doubt please stock markets on the basis lower for longer rates mean buy more stocks.. Oh dear – I suspect they are fooling themselves.
Listening between the lines, Special Counsel Robert Mueller pretty much as said Trump should go to jail when his presidency is over, but the Democrats will now be utterly sidelined trying to impeach him instead of coordinating proper policies on care, education, health and planning how to unseat him. Nothing is likely to change. 4 more years…. Here it comes.
Back here in Blighty, I’m getting more and more depressed about the prospects for the UK. Boris being sued for lying while in public office? Heaven forbid! The courts will be jammed with politicians for eternity. Please put me on the jury!!!
Up in the Northlands, Wee Nicola Krankie has confidently laid out her plans for Neferendum No 2 (or is it 3?) on Scottish Independence. She is a gallus, naughty wee minx; stirring up the pot just as we looked for it to settle. She is not daft. Her plan plays straight into a UK general election – we can guess what she is willing to promise Corbyn in return for his support for a second Scottish Vote. Labour could well lose a general election, but with the Calendonian hordes/MPs on his side, he could still end up in No 10! Wouldn’t that be worthy of a film – blue-arsed Scots descend on Westminster en-masse to demand they can leave.
As I’ve said many times, you really cant make this up..
Of course, all the daily stuff is just noise. More nonsense for us to cut through and wonder what it actually means. The bottom line – and sorry if it sound like I’ve said this before – is that only 3 things actually matter Long Term.
1. Trade War is becoming a Cold War.
The escalating China/US conflict has enormous implications for global trade and is likely to scale back global growth significantly. It could change utterly the current Tech supply chains, concentrate demand on compliant products and lead to a massive realignment of trade flows.
Some say the world will coalesce around 3 groups: the US and Allies, China and its Asia Co-prosperity sphere, and non-aligned including Europe. I suspect it’s more likely to be a US Pacific Rim anchored on Japan and Korea, with an aligned Europe. The economic efforts will be to undo Chinese debt diplomacy in Africa and Middle East, and determined efforts by both sides to woo India and SE Asia. Its going to be fascinating. Tough for economies like Australia that need China to maintain their current growth, but it’s the opportunity for pivot. That’s what happens to supply chains.
There have been a number of articles quoting “Thucydides Trap” – but I have to credit a risk manager at L&G for pointing it out to me 2 years ago. The trap it refers to the Spartans deciding the only way to constrain Athens growing power was to take them out – leading to years of Greek unpleasantness. A Harvard professor dug back into the histories and came out with 16 other classic situations where a long established incumbent power faces an emerging power. He concluded there is a 75% likelihood of war (hot or cold). It looks like the US vs China will be example 17.
2. Monetary Distortion
The key issue since the post Global Financial Crisis has been monetary distortion – the effects of QE, artificially low interest rates, and subsequent impact on prices and price inflation across all financial assets. The unintended consequences of QE have still not been addressed, and Central Banks look trapped in low inflation/low rate impotence. They are struggling to put any momentum into economies like Japan and Europe. Where do we go from here? Modern Monetary Theory looks to be a convenient log to cling to, but I reckon we ought to check it isn’t just a resting crocodile!
3. Climate Change and the Environment
I was having an “argument” with an old chum about climate warming yesterday. I came up with the easy simile we are like the Frogs in the Pan of Water. The smarter frogs, the scientists, are warning the water is getting warming because their instruments show it to be so. But the Big Orange Frog says he can’t feel any change, so there is nothing to worry about and don’t change anything.
But climate change, and its effects on markets are real. We know fuel prices will be impacted by new rules governing carbon scrubbers and clean fuels at sea. We are seeing the price of Carbon offset go through the roof in economies with governments are enacting carbon taxes to clean the environment. We are going to see the costs of waste treatment to clean the oceans escalate dramatically.
There was a great line in an article I was reading in Forbes on Climate Change Investments– “Carbon will be treated as a costly waste product that needs to be captured and stored.” Its just one of may opportunities..
The challenge for the whole investment community is to strip out the current political noise, and focus on how the world changes and what investment opportunities it throws up as a result of a 1) Global Trade Cold War, 2) Ongoing Financial Asset Distortion and the 3) Long Term Implications of Climate Change and protecting the Environment. Easy, eh?
Out of time.. and time to save the world.
via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2WysgPI Tyler Durden
As the father of a toddler, I am uncomfortably familiar with parenting in an age of fear. I bristle when my son runs (always without looking) out of my sight, even though I know that parents overestimate the risks to their children’s safety. And while I’m familiar with the reasons that parents shouldn’t always solve their children’s problems for them, I confess that when some kid snatches something from my son, I have to suppress the instinct to intervene.
So I looked forward to reading Kim Brooks’ Small Animals: Parenthood in the Age of Fear, and the book did not disappoint. Brooks is a mother of two who, faced with a time crunch and an uncooperative 3-year-old, went into a Target store for around 10 minutes while her child played in the car on a tablet. A “concerned citizen” saw her leave the car without her kid, snapped a photo, and called the police. In the world we live in, Brooks was seen as the one in the wrong; the busybody who called the cops was just doing the right thing.
Small Animals is Brooks’ attempt to figure out what happened, not just to her but to us. Intertwined with her own story, told from incident to aftermath, she talks with people who know something about parenting in this fearful culture. They include a social worker, a cognitive psychologist who has studied how parents appraise risk, a lawyer, and many parents—including Reason columnist Lenore Skenazy—who have similarly been accused of (and in some cases arrested for) supposed parental negligence.
Two things must be said at the outset. First, Brooks is not writing simply to vent her frustrations or shock readers with stories about “parents and cops these days.” She really is trying, as sympathetically as possible, to understand the modern trend of fearful parenting. Second, she does not hold herself above the trends she laments. Some of the most intriguing and relatable parts of the book come when she discusses her own internal tensions—knowing how absurd some parental worries are while not being able to free oneself from them.
For instance, after an initial chapter rehearsing the incident that led to the book, she recalls her days as a mother-to-be. This, she tells us, is where it started. Every doctor’s visit or talk with experienced parents turned into advice sessions of stern do’s and don’ts. Doctors gave her pamphlets; parents recommended the latest manuals. What Brooks realized only afterward is that “knowing, as anyone with an anxiety disorder can tell you, is one step away from controlling.” As kids get older, the expectation that we keep this control intensifies: We send them to schools that micromanage how they learn and behave, schedule them for after-school activities controlled by adults, and feel persistent pressure never to let them too far out of reach.
Brooks notes that, by and large, we are doing this to ourselves. Yes, her Target incident led to an unfortunate run-in with the police, but it was a citizen who snapped a pic and called the authorities. And much of the pressure that parents face doesn’t involve the government at all. As Brooks writes, “If parenthood is no longer just a relationship or a part of ‘ordinary life’ but instead a new kind of secular religion, then true tolerance of each other’s parenting differences becomes a lot more complicated and a lot less common.”
So what happened to us? Brooks offers many theories. The media exaggerate the dangers of the modern world, and we seem to have responded accordingly. As the race for jobs and college admissions grows (or at least appears to grow) more competitive, parents worry that easing back means sabotaging their children’s futures. There may even be some sexism here—there is evidence that women experience much more negative judgment than men when they aren’t attending to their children.
One of the most compelling parts of the book comes toward the end, when Brooks discusses what this cultural shift does to parents and to kids. One mother suggests to Brooks that parenting in an age of fear means that she remembers precious little of her children’s actual childhoods; she just remembers the fear and anxiety. “Perhaps this was the greatest cost of fear,” reflects Brooks, “the way it blots out everything it touches—drowning out the joys of parenthood, deadening the very thing we hoped it would protect.” Children experience a similar deprivation: the loss of self-efficacy, of the confidence and ability to solve their own problems, of knowing any aspect of life free from adult monitoring.
As a side note, Brooks mentions that when she started writing on these issues, she noticed to her surprise that libertarian outlets like Reason were sympathetic. To her mind, overprotective parenting just wasn’t an obvious libertarian issue, since “the parent-child relationship makes it impossible to talk about parenting strictly in terms of individual liberty.” Yet when Brooks tells stories of hovering parents and overprotected kids, she is telling stories about individual liberty, where neither parent nor child is terribly free. In an age of fear, “whatever [parents] have to do to feel safe…we vow to do it, to pay whatever price is set for a feeling of safety, a feeling of control.” Yet again, prizing safety above all else is how liberty is lost.
Reading Small Animals was a sort of therapeutic catharsis. Brooks is short on solutions, but her gifts at introspection in telling her own parenting story are sure to resonate with parents. They certainly did with me.
from Latest – Reason.com http://bit.ly/2KiyMUh
via IFTTT
As the father of a toddler, I am uncomfortably familiar with parenting in an age of fear. I bristle when my son runs (always without looking) out of my sight, even though I know that parents overestimate the risks to their children’s safety. And while I’m familiar with the reasons that parents shouldn’t always solve their children’s problems for them, I confess that when some kid snatches something from my son, I have to suppress the instinct to intervene.
So I looked forward to reading Kim Brooks’ Small Animals: Parenthood in the Age of Fear, and the book did not disappoint. Brooks is a mother of two who, faced with a time crunch and an uncooperative 3-year-old, went into a Target store for around 10 minutes while her child played in the car on a tablet. A “concerned citizen” saw her leave the car without her kid, snapped a photo, and called the police. In the world we live in, Brooks was seen as the one in the wrong; the busybody who called the cops was just doing the right thing.
Small Animals is Brooks’ attempt to figure out what happened, not just to her but to us. Intertwined with her own story, told from incident to aftermath, she talks with people who know something about parenting in this fearful culture. They include a social worker, a cognitive psychologist who has studied how parents appraise risk, a lawyer, and many parents—including Reason columnist Lenore Skenazy—who have similarly been accused of (and in some cases arrested for) supposed parental negligence.
Two things must be said at the outset. First, Brooks is not writing simply to vent her frustrations or shock readers with stories about “parents and cops these days.” She really is trying, as sympathetically as possible, to understand the modern trend of fearful parenting. Second, she does not hold herself above the trends she laments. Some of the most intriguing and relatable parts of the book come when she discusses her own internal tensions—knowing how absurd some parental worries are while not being able to free oneself from them.
For instance, after an initial chapter rehearsing the incident that led to the book, she recalls her days as a mother-to-be. This, she tells us, is where it started. Every doctor’s visit or talk with experienced parents turned into advice sessions of stern do’s and don’ts. Doctors gave her pamphlets; parents recommended the latest manuals. What Brooks realized only afterward is that “knowing, as anyone with an anxiety disorder can tell you, is one step away from controlling.” As kids get older, the expectation that we keep this control intensifies: We send them to schools that micromanage how they learn and behave, schedule them for after-school activities controlled by adults, and feel persistent pressure never to let them too far out of reach.
Brooks notes that, by and large, we are doing this to ourselves. Yes, her Target incident led to an unfortunate run-in with the police, but it was a citizen who snapped a pic and called the authorities. And much of the pressure that parents face doesn’t involve the government at all. As Brooks writes, “If parenthood is no longer just a relationship or a part of ‘ordinary life’ but instead a new kind of secular religion, then true tolerance of each other’s parenting differences becomes a lot more complicated and a lot less common.”
So what happened to us? Brooks offers many theories. The media exaggerate the dangers of the modern world, and we seem to have responded accordingly. As the race for jobs and college admissions grows (or at least appears to grow) more competitive, parents worry that easing back means sabotaging their children’s futures. There may even be some sexism here—there is evidence that women experience much more negative judgment than men when they aren’t attending to their children.
One of the most compelling parts of the book comes toward the end, when Brooks discusses what this cultural shift does to parents and to kids. One mother suggests to Brooks that parenting in an age of fear means that she remembers precious little of her children’s actual childhoods; she just remembers the fear and anxiety. “Perhaps this was the greatest cost of fear,” reflects Brooks, “the way it blots out everything it touches—drowning out the joys of parenthood, deadening the very thing we hoped it would protect.” Children experience a similar deprivation: the loss of self-efficacy, of the confidence and ability to solve their own problems, of knowing any aspect of life free from adult monitoring.
As a side note, Brooks mentions that when she started writing on these issues, she noticed to her surprise that libertarian outlets like Reason were sympathetic. To her mind, overprotective parenting just wasn’t an obvious libertarian issue, since “the parent-child relationship makes it impossible to talk about parenting strictly in terms of individual liberty.” Yet when Brooks tells stories of hovering parents and overprotected kids, she is telling stories about individual liberty, where neither parent nor child is terribly free. In an age of fear, “whatever [parents] have to do to feel safe…we vow to do it, to pay whatever price is set for a feeling of safety, a feeling of control.” Yet again, prizing safety above all else is how liberty is lost.
Reading Small Animals was a sort of therapeutic catharsis. Brooks is short on solutions, but her gifts at introspection in telling her own parenting story are sure to resonate with parents. They certainly did with me.
from Latest – Reason.com http://bit.ly/2KiyMUh
via IFTTT
Trump’s farm-state supporters have already been struggling with a dip in agriculture exports to China, which has exacerbated the low commodity prices that have pushed thousands of American farmers to the brink of bankruptcy. America’s farmers are extremely vulnerable right now, which is probably why Beijing has opted for this latest precision strike in the trade conflict: Bloomberg reports that China’s largest state-run grain buyers have been instructed to halt the ‘goodwill’ purchases of American soybeans as Beijing ratchets up the pressure on the White House, which could soon approve new tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese imports.
Thanks to February’s pledge to buy another 10 million tons of American soybeans, sales to Chinese grain buyers by American soybean farmers started to recover during the opening months of 2019. Since President Trump and Xi called the trade-war truce back in December, China has bought some 13 million tons of soybeans from American farmers. Data from the Department of Agriculture show that China’s grain buyers have yet to take delivery on about 7 million tons of US soybeans that it has committed to buying.
The timing of Beijing’s latest blow is notable: Friday marked the conclusion of a two-week tariff ‘grace period’ (since the higher rates didn’t apply to goods already in transit, analysts speculated that the two sides would have roughly two weeks to find a resolution before the new levies were actually imposed), which suggests that more retaliation from Beijing could be in the offing.
Last night, Washington imposed preliminary anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese mattresses and beer kegs (the keg tariffs will also impact Mexico and Germany), though a final decision isn’t expected until October.
As it ratchets up the pressure on the administration with one hand, Beijing is trying appeal to potentially sympathetic voices with the other by reportedly asking state media organizations to soften their criticism of the US in the hopes of keeping open the possibility that tensions with Washington could ease.
“We have been told not to use ‘the US side’ generally in our copy because there are many different voices within the US,” one unidentified official reportedly told the SCMP.
At the same time, Beijing is keeping up its threats about a possible rare earth export ban, much to the chagrin of the American defense and tech industries. Ministry of Commerce Spokesman Gao Feng said Thursday during a regular press briefing that China can’t accept its rare earth metals being used against itself, though it remains willing to meet other countries’ demands for the metals. Gao added that China will fight “until the end” if the US continues to escalate the trade fight, adding that China won’t tolerate US bullying.
via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2WxcmF5 Tyler Durden
Two things must be said at the outset. First, Brooks is not writing simply to vent her frustrations or shock readers with stories about “parents and cops these days.” She really is trying, as sympathetically as possible, to understand the modern trend of fearful parenting. Second, she does not hold herself above the trends she laments. Some of the most intriguing and relatable parts of the book come when she discusses her own internal tensions—knowing how absurd some parental worries are while not being able to free oneself from them.
