Did Mueller Just Make A China Deal Impossible?

Though stocks finished off their lows on Wednesday, it’s obvious that investors weren’t happy with Robert Mueller’s remarks. The main benchmarks sunk after Mueller’s statement, as investors perceptively assessed that the special counsel was effectively exhorting Congress to screw its courage to the sticking post and move ahead with impeachment.

With the prospects for impeachment looking greater than ever (even as Pelosi and Schumer continue to resist), it’s easy to see how this could further destabilize markets.

But offering a novel connection between two of the most dominant political narratives of the year, one analyst argued that Mueller’s statement might make it more difficult for the White House to negotiate an amicable resolution to the trade fight while also convincing China to harden its stance.

Mueller

In comments emailed to Bloomberg News on Wednesday, Veda Partners’ Director of Economic Policy Henrietta Treyz claimed that Mueller’s remarks may have hardened China’s stance in the trade negotiations by providing “at least a scant amount of optimism that Trump could be out of office soon”…making Beijing “less likely to capitulate, if they were planning to.”

“The positions of both sides just got a little bit more entrenched,” said Treyz, who believes the market’s midday dip was inspired by Mueller’s comments.

Mueller’s comments likely made it harder for Trump to back down by giving him “an extra story line” beyond the investigations. Trump’s voters would “likely see him as weak if he backed down now.”

Treyz added that the trade war is the “most pressing thing” for markets right now, adding that she expects more selling pressure ahead because investors haven’t fully priced in the third and fourth tranche escalations that could follow over the summer.

While Treyz makes a compelling argument for why the impeachment scrutiny might force Trump to stay the course on trade, if stocks continue to erase more of their Q1 gains and move closer to the 2,300-2,400 level, the pressure on the White House to capitulate might soon become unbearable.

Then again, now that the  departures of two senior NY Fed officials have left the PPT in limbo, who is even left to trigger the ‘Trump put?’

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/30UXZtu Tyler Durden

Direct Democracy Is the Future of Human Governance – Part 2

War is not a foregone conclusion or a national necessity. Each successive occupant of the White House only needs you to believe that in order to centralize the power of an increasingly imperial presidency, stifle dissent, and chip away at what remains of civil liberties.

– Danny Sjursen, retired US Army officer, The Pence Prophecy: VP Predicts Perpetual War at the West Point Graduation

Whenever I mention direct democracy, a certain segment of the population always comes back with a very negative knee-jerk reaction. Since this response tends to center around several concerns, today’s post will dig into them and explain how such pitfalls can be structurally addressed.

Minority Protection

The first thing that worries people is a fear there will be no protections for minority populations within such a system. Take the U.S. for example, where approximately 80% of the population lives in urban areas and only 20% in rural. If we moved to a system where direct popular vote played a meaningful role in deciding the majority of issues, rural populations would lose out every single time. It would end up being an oppressive system for people who live in less populated areas and would tear up the U.S. even faster than is happening now.

continue reading

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Johnstone: Stop Hoping That The Swamp Will Drain The Swamp

Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

If you only tuned into US politics within the last couple of years this will come as a major surprise, but believe it or not there was once a time when both major parties weren’t constantly claiming that imminent revelations are about to completely destroy the other party any minute now. Used to be they’d just focus on beating each other in elections and making each other look bad with smears and sex scandals; now in the age of Trump they’re both always insisting that some huge, earth-shattering revelation is right around the corner that will see the leaders of the other party dragged off in chains forever.

Enthusiastic Trump supporters have been talking a lot lately about the president’s decision to give Attorney General Bill Barr the authority to declassify information regarding the shady origins of the discredited Russiagate hoax, including potentially illicit means used to secure a surveillance warrant on Trump campaign staff. For days online chatter from Trump’s base has been amping up for a huge, cataclysmic bombshell in the same language Russiagaters used to use back before Robert Mueller pissed in their Wheaties.

“There is information coming that will curl your hair,” Congressman Mark Meadows told Sean Hannity on Fox News. “I can tell you that the reason why it is so visceral — the response from the Democrats is so visceral right now — is because they know, they’ve seen documents. Adam Schiff has seen documents that he knows will actually put the finger pointing back at him and his Democrat colleagues, not the president of the United States.”

“There is some information in these transcripts that I think has the potential to be a game changer, if it’s ever made public,” former Republican congressman Trey Gowdy told Fox News, referring to FBI transcripts of recorded interactions with surveilled individuals.

“Sources tell me there will be bombshells [of] information,” tweeted Fox News contributor Sara A Carter of the coming decassifications.

Democrats and Democrat-aligned media are responding with similarly apocalyptic language, playing right along with the same WWE script.

“While Trump stonewalls the public from learning the truth about his obstruction of justice, Trump and Barr conspire to weaponize law enforcement and classified information against their political enemies,” griped congressman, Russiagater and flamboyant drama queen Adam Schiff, adding, “The coverup has entered a new and dangerous phase. This is un-American.”

“President Trump’s order allowing Attorney General William P. Barr to declassify any intelligence that led to the Russia investigation sets up a potential confrontation with the C.I.A.,” the New York Times warns.

“National security veterans fear a declassification order could trigger resignations and threaten the CIA’s ability to conduct its core business — managing secret intelligence and sources,” frets Politico.

“William Barr’s New Authority to Declassify Anything He Wants Is a Threat to National Security,” blares a headline from Slate.

Both sides are wrong and ridiculous. Democrats are wrong and ridiculous for claiming a tiny bit of government transparency is dangerous, and Republicans are wrong and ridiculous to claim that game-changing bombshell revelations are going to be brought to the light by these declassifications. Just like with the Mueller report and the “bigger than Watergate” Nunes memo before it, there may be some interesting revelations, but the swamp of DC corruption will march on completely uninterrupted.

Readers keep asking me to weigh in on this whole declassification controversy, but really I have no response to the whole thing apart from boredom and a slight flinch whenever I think about Adam Schiff’s bug-eyed stare. There’s just not much going to come of it.

This is not to suggest that the intelligence communities of the US and its allies weren’t up to some extremely sleazy shenanigans in planting the seeds of the Russiagate insanity which monopolized US political attention for over two years, and it’s not to suggest that those shenanigans couldn’t be interpreted as crimes. Abuse of government surveillance and inflicting a malignant psyop on public consciousness are extremely egregious offenses and should indeed be punished. And, in a sane world, they would be.

But we do not live in such a world. We live in a world where partisan divides are for show only and the powerful protect each other from ever being held to account. Having the swamp of Trump’s Justice Department investigate the swamp of Obama’s intelligence community isn’t going to lead anywhere. Swamp creature Bill “Iran-Contra coverup” Barr isn’t going to be draining the swamp any more than swamp creature Robert “Saddam has WMDs” Mueller. The swamp cannot be used to drain itself.

It is possible that some important information will make its way to public view, like Russiagate’s roots in UK intelligence, for example. But no powerful people in the US or its allied governments will suffer any meaningful consequences for any offenses exposed, and no significant changes in government policy or behavior will take place. I fully support declassifying everything Trump wants declassified (as well as the rest of the 99 percent of classified government information which is only hidden from public view out of convenience for the powerful), but the most significant thing that can possibly come of it is a slightly better-informed populace and some political damage to the Democrats in 2020.

The only people who believe these inquiries will help fix America’s problems are those who believe there are aspects of the DC power structure which are not immersed in swamp. Trump supporters believe the Trump administration is virtuous, so they believe the Justice Department is preparing to hold powerful manipulators to legal accountability rather than cover for them and treat them with kid gloves. Democrats believed that a former FBI Director and George W Bush crony was going to bring the Executive Branch of the US government to its knees, because they thought that swamp monster was in some way separable from the swamp. It doesn’t work that way, cupcake.

If people want to rid their government of the swamp of corruption, they’re going to have to do it themselves. No political insider is going to rise to the occasion and do it for you. They can’t. You can’t drain the swamp when you’re made of swamp, any more than you can wash yourself clean with a turd-soaked loofah.

The only upheaval that is worth buying stock in is the kind which moves from the bottom up. If you really want change, it’s not going to come from the US president or any longtime government insider. It’s going to come from real people looking to each other and agreeing to say that enough is enough, and use the power of their numbers to flush the corrupt power structure down the toilet where it belongs. It will mean ceasing to imbue the fake partisan divide with the power of belief, and it will mean unplugging from official authorized narratives about what’s going on in the world and circulating our own narratives instead.

All political analysis which favors either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party is inherently worthless, because both parties are made of swamp and exist in service of the swamp. If you can’t see that the entire system is one unified block of corruption and that ordinary people need to come together and unite against it, then you really don’t understand what you’re looking at.

*  *  *

Everyone has my unconditional permission to republish or use any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge. My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, liking me on Facebook, following my antics on Twitter, throwing some money into my hat on Patreon or Paypalpurchasing some of my sweet merchandise, buying my new book Rogue Nation: Psychonautical Adventures With Caitlin Johnstone, or my previous book Woke: A Field Guide for Utopia Preppers. The best way to get around the internet censors and make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for my website, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here.

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via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2JJQ8tD Tyler Durden

Mueller Puts Democrats In Tough Spot After Wednesday Speech

Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Wednesday remarks have put new pressure on House Democrats to launch impeachment proceedings against President Trump – an option that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has repeatedly warned would be a trap going into the 2020 election due to the fact that the GOP-held Senate would “vindicate” Trump even if the House impeached. 

Mueller, who officially resigned from the DOJ to return to private life – said that he wouldn’t appear before Congress to discuss the findings from the Justice Department’s multi-year, $25 million investigations into the 2016 election. 

I hope and expect that this will be the only time I will speak to you about this matter,” Mueller told reporters in Washington, adding “the report is my testimony” and “I would not provide information beyond that which is already public.”  

Of note, Mueller said that he didn’t question Attorney General William Barr’s handling and release of the Special Counsel’s report, contradicting statements by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and turncoat Republican Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI) – the latter of whom said Barr “deliberately misrepresented key aspects.” 

To impeach, or not to impeach 

By specifically pointing out that the special counsel didn’t levy charges at Trump due to longstanding DOJ policy not to prosecute a sitting president, Mueller effectively laid out a path to impeachment for Democrats to follow

It wasn’t lack of evidence. It was DOJ policy” tweeted Rep. Val Demings (R-FL). 

Mueller’s refusal to testify also puts House Democrats in a tough spot. With a growing number of Democratic lawmakers pushing for leadership to launch impeachment proceedings, Pelosi and House Judiciary Chairman Rep. Jerrold Nadler of New York are now left to decide whether Mueller gave them enough ammunition to move forward without his testimony, which Pelosi said would have been useful. 

Rep. Eric Swalwell told CNN that “Seeing is believing…hearing Bob Mueller raise his right hand, testify to Congress, seeing the news capture that, that would be quite illuminating for most Americans.” In other words, Mueller’s refusal to testify will now be blamed for robbing Democrats of their opportunity to impeach, if they choose not to move forward with that option. 

In Wednesday comments, Nadler was far more confrontational than Pelosi – saying that “All options are on the table and nothing should be ruled out” in terms of impeachment, adding “not event the president of the United States is above the law.”

Staging a press conference Wednesday afternoon in New York, Nadler was similarly vague, sidestepping questions about whether he will compel Mueller’s testimony with a congressional subpoena.

Mr. Mueller told us a lot of what we need to hear today,” Nadler said.

Before Mueller’s remarks, at least 37 House Democrats were on record backing the launch of an impeachment inquiry into Trump. Afterward, Reps. Betty McCollum (D-Minn.) and Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) added their names to the list, though most Democratic lawmakers responded by holding firm to Pelosi’s favored approach of continuing with investigations without making the leap to impeachment. –The Hill

“We must remain committed to aggressively investigating the president’s wrongdoing and we will not rest until the American people have answers,” insisted Rep. Katherine Clark (D-MA), vice chairwoman of the Democratic Caucus – who apparently presumes guilt until proven innocent. 

So Democrats are left with a special counsel who won’t testify, and who just gave the left plenty of ammunition to impeach since Mueller implied that Trump may have committed crimes. And if they do launch impeachment proceedings, they might reach the Senate just in time for Trump to be vindicated in the court of public opinion. 

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2HK52xK Tyler Durden

“This Is Not “Normal”: US Suffers More Than 500 Tornadoes In The Last 30 Days

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

The mainstream media has been using the term “uncharted territory” to describe the unusual tornado outbreaks that have been happening in the middle of the country, but I don’t think that truly captures the historic nature of what we are witnessing.  Over the last 30 days, there have been more than 500 tornadoes in the United States.  That is not normal.  In fact, Tuesday was the 12th day in a row when at least eight tornadoes were spawned, and that is a new all-time record.  Community after community in the Midwest now looks like a “war zone”, and billions upon billions of dollars of damage has already been done.  But this crisis is far from over, because forecasters are telling us that more powerful storms will roar through the middle of the country on Wednesday.

Since 1998, there has been an average of 279 tornadoes during the month of May.  So the fact that we have had more than 500 over the last 30 days means that we are running way, way above normal

In the last week alone, the authorities have linked tornadoes to at least seven deaths and scores of injuries. Federal government weather forecasters logged preliminary reports of more than 500 tornadoes in a 30-day period — a rare figure, if the reports are ultimately verified — after the start of the year proved mercifully quiet.

The barrage continued Tuesday night, as towns and cities across the Midwest took shelter from powerful storms. Tornadoes carved a line of devastation from eastern Kansas through Missouri, ripping trees and power lines in Lawrence, Kan., southwest of Kansas City, and pulverizing houses in nearby Linwood.

According to the National Weather Service, there were more than 50 tornadoesover Memorial Day weekend alone, and at this point there have been at least 8 tornadoes in the U.S. for 12 consecutive days

Tuesday was the 12th consecutive day with at least eight tornado reports, breaking the record, according to Dr. Marsh. The storms have drawn their fuel from two sources: a high-pressure area that pulled the Gulf of Mexico’s warm, moist air into the central United States, where it combined with the effects of a trough trapped over the Rockies, which included strong winds.

The devastation that has been left behind by these storms has been immense.  When Dayton assistant fire chief Nicholas Hosford appeared on ABC’s “Good Morning America”, he told viewers that in his city there are “homes flattened, entire apartment complexes destroyed, businesses throughout our community where walls have collapsed”.

Countless numbers of Americans have had their lives completely turned upside down, and of course the Midwest has already been reeling from unprecedented flooding in recent months.

So far this year, much of the focus has been on the historic flooding along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers, but now severe flooding along the Arkansas River is threatening to break all-time records

Heavy rainfall over the past few weeks is threatening all-time May records and swelling rivers to record levels in parts of Arkansas and Oklahoma.

The National Weather Service in Little Rock, Arkansas, didn’t mince words Sunday, expecting historic, record flooding along the Arkansas River from Toad Suck Reservoir northwest of Little Rock to the Oklahoma border that could have impacts lasting well into the summer.

In fact, USA Today is plainly stating that both states are “bracing for their worst-ever flooding”…

Oklahoma and Arkansas were bracing for their worst-ever flooding as a new wave of storms forecast to roll through the region threatened to further bloat the Arkansas River that already has reached record crests in some areas.

Forecasters reported tornadoes, high winds, hail and heavy rain across the region on Monday, triggering evacuations and high-water rescues. The storms are the latest to rip through the Midwest over the past two weeks, leaving at least nine dead and a trail of damage from high winds and flooding.

Of course let us not forget what is happening along the Mississippi River either.  The flooding has been called “the worst in over 90 years”, and in some parts of the river new records are already being set

For example, In Vicksburg, Mississippi, the river went above flood stage on Feb. 17, and has remained in flood ever since. The weather service said this is the longest continuous stretch above flood stage since 1927.

In Baton Rouge, Louisiana, the Mississippi first rose above flood stage in early January, and has been above that level ever since, the National Weather Service said. If this record-long stretch extends well into June, it would break the record from 1927, according to the Weather Channel.

And farther north, the Mississippi River at the Quad Cities of Iowa and Illinois saw its longest stretch above major flood stage ever recorded, even surpassing that of 1927.

None of this is “normal”, and prior to the month of May we had already witnessed the wettest 12 months in all of U.S. history.

All of this wet weather has been absolutely disastrous for Midwest farmers, and so far in 2019 agricultural production is way, way below expectations.  In the months ahead, we should all be prepared for much higher prices at the grocery store.

Unfortunately, more wet weather is on the way.  According to the Weather Channel, another series of very powerful storms will rip through the middle of the country on Wednesday…

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday night from Iowa to Oklahoma, which may produce areas of locally heavy rain and flash flooding. Some clusters of storms may persist into Wednesday morning in the Ozarks.

Then, another rash of thunderstorms with heavy rain is expected Wednesday and Wednesday night from North Texas into Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri that could only trigger more flash flooding and aggravate ongoing river flooding.

Weather patterns are going absolutely crazy, and we have never seen a year quite like this in modern American history.

So what is going to happen if weather patterns get even crazier and natural disasters just continue to become even more frequent and even more powerful?

You may want to start thinking about that, because that is exactly what many people believe is going to happen.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2XdusZT Tyler Durden

A 16-Year-Old Girl Is Facing Child Pornography Charges for Making a Sex Video of Herself

Maryland’s highest court will soon decide whether a 16-year-old girl, “S.K.,” can face child pornography charges for taking a video of herself performing a sex act and sending it to a few of her close friends.

S.K. shared the video, in which she performs consensual oral sex on an unidentified male, with two close friends and fellow students, who later reported her to the school resource officer. S.K. was the only person charged in connection with the alleged crime.

The Special Court of Appeals upheld S.K.’s conviction, ruling that the consensual nature of the sex act in question was irrelevant, as was the fact that it was not illegal for S.K. to perform the act. Taking a video of the act and sending it to other people constituted distribution of child pornography, according to the court’s decision.

“The First Amendment to the United States Constitution did not protect conduct of a minor who distributed a digital video file of herself engaged as a subject in consensual sexual conduct,” wrote the court.

The Maryland Court of Appeals’ ruling is expected later this year. The court, which is Maryland’s equivalent of a state supreme court, heard oral arguments in February. The proceedings are recorded here. S.K.’s attorney, Public Defender Claudia Cortese, argued that the statute in question was not intended to punish minors for being featured in pornographic materials, but rather, to protect them. Punishing S.K., as the state has attempted to do, is cruel and authoritarian.

The state, on the other hand, has asserted that S.K. needs guidance, and that probation and a mandatory mental health evaluation were reasonable outcomes, The Washington Post reports:

At her initial hearing, the prosecutor said the state was not “trying to prove a point in going forward with this case,” but that “the state believes that the respondent is in need of some guidance, rehabilitation for something deeper” and “is just trying to help her.”

Because her case on the distribution of child pornography was in juvenile court, the teen never faced a mandatory sentence or the possibility of having to register as a sex offender. She was put on probation and referred for a mental health evaluation.

That teens shouldn’t send sexy videos to each other—because they are bound to get out, cause embarrassment, and raise legal issues—is something S.K.’s parents, teachers, and school administrators could have impressed upon her without the heavy-handed involvement of the police and courts. It is draconian to charge a 16-year-old girl with trafficking in child pornography because she willingly filmed herself performing oral sex. Upholding S.K.’s conviction would set a disturbing precedent.

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A 16-Year-Old Girl Is Facing Child Pornography Charges for Making a Sex Video of Herself

Maryland’s highest court will soon decide whether a 16-year-old girl, “S.K.,” can face child pornography charges for taking a video of herself performing a sex act and sending it to a few of her close friends.

S.K. shared the video, in which she performs consensual oral sex on an unidentified male, with two close friends and fellow students, who later reported her to the school resource officer. S.K. was the only person charged in connection with the alleged crime.

The Special Court of Appeals upheld S.K.’s conviction, ruling that the consensual nature of the sex act in question was irrelevant, as was the fact that it was not illegal for S.K. to perform the act. Taking a video of the act and sending it to other people constituted distribution of child pornography, according to the court’s decision.

“The First Amendment to the United States Constitution did not protect conduct of a minor who distributed a digital video file of herself engaged as a subject in consensual sexual conduct,” wrote the court.

The Maryland Court of Appeals’ ruling is expected later this year. The court, which is Maryland’s equivalent of a state supreme court, heard oral arguments in February. The proceedings are recorded here. S.K.’s attorney, Public Defender Claudia Cortese, argued that the statute in question was not intended to punish minors for being featured in pornographic materials, but rather, to protect them. Punishing S.K., as the state has attempted to do, is cruel and authoritarian.

The state, on the other hand, has asserted that S.K. needs guidance, and that probation and a mandatory mental health evaluation were reasonable outcomes, The Washington Post reports:

At her initial hearing, the prosecutor said the state was not “trying to prove a point in going forward with this case,” but that “the state believes that the respondent is in need of some guidance, rehabilitation for something deeper” and “is just trying to help her.”

Because her case on the distribution of child pornography was in juvenile court, the teen never faced a mandatory sentence or the possibility of having to register as a sex offender. She was put on probation and referred for a mental health evaluation.

That teens shouldn’t send sexy videos to each other—because they are bound to get out, cause embarrassment, and raise legal issues—is something S.K.’s parents, teachers, and school administrators could have impressed upon her without the heavy-handed involvement of the police and courts. It is draconian to charge a 16-year-old girl with trafficking in child pornography because she willingly filmed herself performing oral sex. Upholding S.K.’s conviction would set a disturbing precedent.

from Latest – Reason.com http://bit.ly/2JKmVyD
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WTI Extends Gains After Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw

WTI bounced hard after testing $57 today as a pipeline that drains crude from the key Cushing, Oklahoma, supply hub was said to be ready to restart Thursday.

OPEC’s “wishy-washy” stance on simply setting a new date is adding to uncertainty, said Michael Loewen, a commodities strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto.

“The macroeconomic overlay is affecting everything,” he said.

“If China starts restricting that flow of rare earths, that will materially restrict economic growth.”

But inventory concerns remain high on the agenda…

API

  • Crude -5.265mm (-500k exp)

  • Cushing -176k

  • Gasoline +2.711mm

  • Distillates -2.144mm

Crude inventories were expected to draw modestly in the last week after 4 builds in the last 5 weeks but surprised with a big draw, just as gasoline surprised with a big build…

WTI hovered just shy of $59 ahead of the API print, after ramping off the lows (below $57) intraday on MPLX reopening rumors, but the machines could not make up their minds after the data showed a bigger than expected crude draw which limped WTI back to $59…

 

 

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2YVkRY4 Tyler Durden

Globalists Only Need One More Major Event To Finish Sabotaging The Economy

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

As I predicted in my article ‘Trump Trade Wars A Perfect Smokescreen For A Market Crash’, published in March of 2018, as well as in my article ‘The Trade War Distraction: Huawei And Linchpin Theory’, published in December of 2018, the US/China trade dispute has escalated into an all out war with no end in sight. The claims of many analysts and skeptics a year ago that the trade war would be over quickly and that China would fold to US tariffs has been proven incorrect.

The reason why these analysts got it so wrong centers primarily on their misunderstanding of the true purpose behind the events.

The goal of this war is NOT to balance the US trade deficit or pursue more fair circumstances for US exports and imports. The intention of the Trump Administration is NOT to fight back against Chinese “exploitation” of US markets, this kind of rhetoric is pure theater.  Nor is it Trump’s intention to undermine globalist structures or agreements in order to bring back American manufacturing (a carrot that has been flaunted in front of American faces for a long time to lure them into supporting destructive policies such as dollar devaluation). On the contrary, the real purpose of Trump’s trade war is to provide a distraction massive enough to cover for the controlled demolition of the US economy and parts of the global economy by globalists and the central banks they control.

The tariff soap opera and most of Trump’s other foreign and domestic policies are eerily similar to those of Herbert Hoover just before the advent of the Great Depression. This is not a coincidence. The narrative for an economic collapse rivaling that of the Great Depression has been set, and the root circumstances are very similar.

Since the crash of 2008, the US has been suffering a slow grinding decline in fundamentals (the collapse of an empire often takes time). The response of central banks was to slow the crash using stimulus measures and near zero interest rates, but this strategy was not meant to reverse US economic decline. The purpose of QE was meant to inflate an even larger bubble than before, one that would encompass every aspect of the economy including the dollar; a bubble that when popped would devastate the US specifically and create panic around the world.

Now the stimulus phase of the globalist agenda is over. US M2 money supply growth has been decelerating and is hovering near 10 year lows, while stimulus measures have evaporated in most countries except China. Global dollar liquidity has been dwindling as the Federal Reserve continues to cut its balance sheet unabated.

This would explain why US equities are struggling to stay afloat despite the fact that corporate buybacks of stocks have increased to historic highs in 2019. Central banks, most importantly the Fed, are no longer propping up the system; the life support has been pulled and the parts of the economy that have been dependent are taking their last breaths.

The trade war situation as it is now is not enough of a distraction in my view, however. At least one more major event with global ramifications (or perceived global ramifications) is needed by the elites before they can implode the ‘Everything Bubble’ without taking the blame for the consequences.

There are several powderkegs that exist today that would serve the purpose of occupying the minds of the masses while the globalists finalize the crash. As noted, I continue to predict the trade war as it stands will accelerate unabated until the plunge in fundamentals and equities is complete.

Trade War Shock And Awe

We haven’t seen anything yet as far as trade war chaos.

The US/China conflict has the potential to become an economic world war, with multiple countries beginning to take sides. Japan and the UK have opted to support US interests, which is not surprising since China and Japan have hated each other for generations and the US is the UK’s strongest economic partner in the wake of the Brexit. Already some people are declaring this to mean that the US will gain the majority of global support and crush China.

But keep in mind, as I outlined and evidenced in my recent article ‘America Will Lose The Trade War Because That Is What Globalists Want To Happen’, the trade war itself is a farce on both sides of the Pacific, as both China and the US are controlled by the same financial power centers (such as the Bank for International Settlements).  The fact that some people are jumping on the patriot bandwagon to cheer for expanded confrontation with China as if a globalist engineered war is a war we can “win” is disturbing and sad to witness.  My suspicion is that there is a concerted disinformation campaign in play on the internet to drum up the false impression of consensus support for the trade war while the activities of the real villains (the international banks) are ignored.

As this Kabuki theater moves forward, I think many analysts will find themselves shocked as more and more nations start taking China’s side in the conflict.

The most powerful option China has at its disposal is the dumping of US Treasuries and the dollar as the world reserve mechanism, but it is likely to use this tactic only when the US economy is at its most unstable. China is the number one exporter/importer in the world and the US consumer is ready to tap out as retail numbers stumble and household debt skyrockets. The US market is only 18% of Chinese exports, a sizable piece of the pie, but hardly a devastating blow to the Chinese economy should it be denied to them.

The bottom line is that China will ultimately dictate global trade terms as they possess the largest manufacturing base, they decide what currency they will accept, and whose debt they will prop up.  China has also established very close economic ties with key nations over the past decade, including Russia, Germany, India, Australia, and even Saudi Arabia. Do not be surprised if most if not all of these nations eventually support China in the trade war, dropping the dollar as the reserve currency and following China’s lead.

Skeptics of this outcome are pretty much the same people that originally claimed the trade war would be over by now and that Trump would be victorious.  They will cry foul today at the idea that the globalists have rigged the game and that the US is being set up to fail, but when they are shown to be wrong once again they will state proudly that they “saw it coming all along”.

China has yet to fully retaliate against the latest increase in US tariffs. When it does, the attack will be far larger than cutting off purchases of US agricultural goods. The next escalation could be the trigger than sends the crash into overdrive.

Iran War Looming

War with Iran at this time makes no sense whatsoever unless you look at it from a globalist perspective. The globalists are the only group that stands to gain from such catastrophe, as war with Iran would seal the fate of the US economy. The most immediate threat would be the potential shutdown of the Straight of Hormuz by Iran, which would take nothing more than sinking a few large cargo vessels along the narrow and more shallow portions of the straight, placing mine fields, or staging anti-ship missiles within striking range. The subsequent explosion in oil prices would be devastating to the global economy and the US economy would struggle under high energy prices even with expanded domestic oil drilling.

In the longer term complete destabilization of the Middle East would result, well beyond what we have already seen, and the costs to taxpayers as well as the cost in American lives would be high. Beyond this, the distraction would be epic and very effective. This event coupled with the trade war would fulfill the globalist narrative that the Trump Administration and the conservatives that support him are a “menace” to global stability. Any financial crash at that point would undoubtedly be blamed on Trump as well as his supporters.

Currently, the mainstream media is very quiet on the Iran situation despite the sudden shift of US military resources to the region, which leads me to believe that a conflict is being planned in the near term.

Brexit Finalized

This event may not be concluded until the end of this year, but I still maintain as I always have that the Brexit and the growth of populism in Europe is a distraction that has actually been encouraged by globalists through the use of forced mass immigration measures to terrify the citizenry.  I successfully predicted the outcome of the Brexit vote in 2016 based on this theory, and it still holds true so far today.

The “rise of the populists” in Europe and the US at the exact same time that central banks are withdrawing liquidity and at the exact same time that fundamentals are plummeting is yet another unlikely coincidence.

The only event that was needed to fulfill the populist takeover narrative was a major win by a nationalist party on the European mainland.  Thanks to French president Macron being the worst leader in recent French history, that event has occurred.  Marine Le Pen’s National Rally Party has overtaken Macron’s LREM party in the EU parliamentary elections.  The populists have gained ground in Italy and Germany as well; not enough to retain any real influence, but enough to get blamed for the financial disaster that is about to happen.

The final plot twist the elites need in the EU, I believe, is a no-deal Brexit.  I predict the Brexit will conclude and that the UK will indeed break with the EU. The latest announcement of Theresa May’s resignation seems to indicate that this will be the case, and that a no-deal scenario is the most probable scenario. The EU has publicly stated that there will be NO renegotiations of the Brexit deal after May leaves.  Sovereignty activists will cheer the Brexit outcome, and then things will start to go horribly wrong. European markets will tank and certain major banks (Deutsche Bank and Italian majors?) will announce insolvency. The panic felt in 2008 will return and hit the EU and the UK hard, and the Brexit movement will get the blame while central banks escape any culpability.

Only one of these events is needed to initiate the next stage of economic collapse, but it is possible we will see all three occur in due course. While the current crash started at the end of 2018, the year of 2019 will probably be the one that is most remembered in history books as the beginning of Great Depression 2.0.

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In Defense of “Virtual Briefing” (i.e. Blogging, Tweeting, Podcasting About Supreme Court Cases).

Two great experts on the Supreme Court, Alli Orr Larsen and Jeffrey Fisher, have posted a draft of a new article, Virtual Briefing at the Supreme Court, which argues that there is a widespread practice of trying to influence the Supreme Court through the internet, and that this practice “is at least worth a serious pause.” Here’s the abstract:

The open secret of Supreme Court advocacy in a digital era is that there is a new way to argue to the Justices. Today’s Supreme Court arguments are developed online: They are dissected and explored in blog posts, fleshed out in popular podcasts, and analyzed and re-analyzed by experts who do not represent parties or have even filed a brief in the case at all. This “virtual briefing” (as we call it) is intended to influence the Justices and their law clerks but exists completely outside of traditional briefing rules. This article describes virtual briefing and makes a case that the key players inside the Court are listening. In particular, we show that the Twitter patterns of law clerks indicate they are paying close attention to producers of virtual briefing, and threads of these arguments (proposed and developed online) are starting to appear in the Court’s decisions.

We argue that this “crowdsourcing” dynamic to Supreme Court decision-making is at least worth a serious pause. There is surely merit to enlarging the dialogue around the issues the Supreme Court decides—maybe the best ideas will come from new voices in the crowd. But the confines of the adversarial process have been around for centuries, and there are significant risks that come with operating outside of it particularly given the unique nature and speed of online discussions. We analyze those risks in this article and suggest it is time to think hard about embracing virtual briefing—truly assessing what can be gained and what will be lost along the way.

The article will be important reading for anybody who is interested in Supreme Court decisionmaking, and I learned quite a bit from it. But, perhaps unsurprisingly, my general attitude is somewhat more favorable to the practice of “virtual briefing,” and I thought I’d offer a few of my own observations. (Full disclosure, I have of course blogged, tweeted, and podcasted about Supreme Court cases, and my Twitter feed is mentioned in the article, though I find it extremely unlikely that any Supreme Court case has ever been influenced by my Twitter feed. The Court isn’t even influenced by my occasional amicus briefs!)

1. Regardless of whether one shares the article’s normative cautions, the article documents an important phenomenon. A minor but important point for Supreme Court law clerks: even if your account is private, thorough investigation may be able to figure which lawyers, professors, or news sources you follow.

I’m also quite sure there are examples of blog posts or other online media having an effect on Supreme Court arguments or opinions, though I’m not sure that all of the examples documented in the article—Walter Dellinger’s comments on NPR, the federalism argument in U.S. v. Windsor, or a Heritage Foundation report about Masterpiece Cakeshop—are the best examples. In each case, I strongly suspect that these points had made it to the Justices through other fora, though I suppose we don’t know. But I’m sure there are other examples, even if we aren’t sure which they are. (See point #4, below.)

Indeed, one thing that the article acknowledges, but I want to emphasize, is that many arguments that are made on the internet are also made in other more traditional fora—they make their way to amicus briefs, to newspaper columns, etc. Blogs and twitter provide much faster, and more accessible, ways to make, respond to, and curate these arguments, and maybe a different kind of emphasis or focus, but they really are just part of the ecosystem, and it may be hard to prove exactly what part.

Even this blog, which is sometimes alleged to have an influence on the the justices, usually contains arguments that can also be found in the authors’ other writing, such as Sam’s article on the national injunction, Orin’s many articles on the digital Fourth Amendment, Randy’s and Jonathan’s articles and briefs on health care, and so on.

2. In any event, I think it is entirely understandable that the same people who occasionally care about amicus briefs, and who occasionally show some indication of having read the newspaper or listened to the radio, would also want to know if they are missing some part of the conversation that is happening online, where many serious lawyers now spend their time. Sometimes the Justices need information, and I do not think we should fault them for seeking it as widely as possible.

It’s true that having more and more sources of information or argument about a case means that the parties have less and less control over what the Court can hear, or what it might be convinced to focus on. The authors make the point that this can be bad for the parties, who might well have made strategic choices to focus on one argument rather than another. But I am not convinced it is bad for the country. For better or worse, Supreme Court opinions are taken to resolve major legal issues for the whole country, not just the parties. So it seems perverse to let the strategic interests of a few parties keep the rest of us out of the conversation. When we rethink the stare decisis effect of Supreme Court opinions, I will reconsider outside briefing, virtual or otherwise.

I’d also add that I think it’s a mistake to ask whether any of this writing persuades the Court. Even when the Court has already decided on a basic outcome and line of reasoning, it may run into collateral issues in collateral areas of law where its opinion could have unintended consequences. Having a lot of available information and commentary about possible landmines or implications helps the Court avoid accidentally doing harm to other areas of law.

3. Ultimately, part of the reason I am relatively unconcerned about “virtual briefing” and similar writing about the Court is that it takes place out in the open, where anybody can see it and anybody can respond. The latter point makes virtual briefing potentially more reliable than amicus briefs, where the briefing schedule and page limits makes it difficult or impossible for parties to respond to all of the briefing, or for the amici to respond to each other. And let’s not even get into the “amicus machine” or the favor economy that allow some parties to take much better advantage of harnessing amicus support than others. (This does feed into the authors’ discussion of whether the parties can or should engage in “virtual briefing,” which is important. See #4 below.)

Similarly, I think “virtual briefing” fares much better than some of the older methods of influencing the Court outside of the briefs, such as the President’s having private chats with the Justices, or fancy law professors’ indoctrinating their students and then trying to slip the most loyal ones into clerkships. And I think it fares far far better than having the Justices simply fall back on what they remember learning in law school, or on their own imaginations.

The point of the regular briefing process is to give the parties a guaranteed opportunity to communicate with the court. The point of page limits is to make sure the court isn’t overly burdened by such communications. Ditto oral argument and time limits. Were there world enough and time and attention, we’d want infinite arguments and infinite amici. But the briefing and argument rules are not like the rules of evidence at trial, which are supposed to stop the Court from considering facts outside of them. We don’t have rules of evidence with respect to legal conclusions, for good reasons.

By taking place in public, and with tons and tons of adversaries on all sides, “virtual briefing” is harder to abuse and more legitimate than many of the alternatives. If it is unhelpful, I am confident the Court can ignore it, but if it is helpful, we ought to regard it as a public service.

4. In my view, the only real problem with “virtual briefing” is that we worry about it too much. We don’t know how well “virtual briefing” works, or which arguments have really been found to be helpful or effective, because the Justices are unlikely to cite or acknowledge any of it. At least they discuss amicus briefs and legal scholarship occasionally.

Moreover, parties and Supreme Court advocates don’t know whether it is appropriate to join the fray, even though they might often have useful responses to some points raised online. Should the parties keep quiet? Find friendly law professors to parrot their talking points online? Or start up a blog and post anything helpful that got cut from the briefs?

But it seems to me that these problems are exacerbated by suggestions that these blogs/tweets/podcasts are somehow shady, or less deserving of consideration than amicus briefs, news reports, law review articles, and all the rest. So I hope that the article does not have the effect of making it seem—in 2019—like the internet is anything other than a totally natural place for people to be trying to advance the best arguments they can about the things they care about.

To their great credit, Fisher and Larsen ultimately conclude that “perhaps the most sensible and realistic way forward” is for the Supreme Court to simply promote transparency by asking for supplemental briefing when a Justice sees a new and relevant argument online. But even this norm, it seems to me, is more likely to have a chilling effect than to be helpful to the Court or the country. Better to stick with the status quo: The Justices have the discretion to ask for supplemental briefing when they think they need it, and they don’t have to tell us what sources inspired them to ask for it. The rest of the time, they don’t usually tell us what they’re thinking about while the case is still pending, and if they did have to tell us, that would probably chill free deliberation more than it promoted knowledge.

Maybe we should have more supplemental briefing orders than we do. But we don’t need and shouldn’t have any special rules for online sources compared to anything else.

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