The Average American’s Income Is Unchanged In 30 Years… While The “1%” Have Soared

The Average American’s Income Is Unchanged In 30 Years… While The “1%” Have Soared

According to the latest Census Bureau figures released this month, real American incomes remained essentially flat in 2018 after three straight years of growth. Median household income was $63,179 in 2018, an uptick of 0.9% that census officials said isn’t statistically significant from the prior year based on figures adjusted for inflation.

The new figures showed that the number of full-time, year-round workers increased by 2.3 million. When looked at by race and ethnicity, median household incomes in America were essentially flat in 2018 for all groups except Asians, who saw theirs rise 4.6% from the previous year in real dollars.

The good news is that while income were flat, the poverty rate in 2018 decline modestly to 11.8%, a decrease of a half percentage point from 2017, marking the fourth consecutive annual decline in the national poverty rate. It was the first time the official poverty rate fell significantly below its level at the start of the recession in 2007.

The bad news is that as with all other government data, how one interprets the data matters, and as the Census Bureau explained,  in recent weeks, the government revised downward its estimates for job gains, economic output and corporate profits at various points in time since early last year. Previous government surveys had suggested income growth picked up last year. Without dwelling on the nuances, the result is that without the adjustment, income in 2018 is significantly higher than all years shown prior to 2017. However, with the adjustment, it is higher than all the pre-2017 years except 2007, 2000 and 1999.

In other words, median household income in the US is unchanged since 1989!

Yet while the average American’s income is unchanged in 30 years, some Americans are more equal than others, and as the following chart breaking down incomes by percentiles and quntiles shows, while most incomes remained stagnant, the incomes for the “Top 1” rose nearly 4x since the late 1980s.

Democratic presidential candidate and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders said the figures showed “our rigged system allows billionaires to get richer, while working families struggle to survive.” Note he did not bash millionaires (as he had previously) for the simple reason that he himself is one now.

The report showed little change in the overall distribution of income, but it showed a gain for the second-lowest fifth of all households. The bottom fifth of households—with incomes up to $25,600—accounted for 3.1% of all household income last year. The top fifth of households, which had incomes topping $130,000, collected 52%. The top 5%, with incomes above $248,700, collected 23.1%.

Needless to say, income growth over the past decade hasn’t been as strong as some economists would have expected given the tightness of the U.S. labor market, which in turn has allowed the Fed to cut rates even as the economy continues to hum on all cylinders. The unemployment rate hovered at or below 4% last year.

As the WSJ explains, part of the reason why there has been virtually no income growth in decades, is that employers have become more adept at holding down wages by using technology, and consolidation in industries such as telecommunications and banking also has damped income growth, according to Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist for Northern Trust. The share of workers who are in unions, which push for worker pay raises, also continues to decline steadily.

“We’re better off by almost all measures than we were 10 years ago,” Tannenbaum said. “But there are still some…amber flags that show that economic security remains more elusive for some families.”

Lisa Glivar, a 37-year-old hairstylist in Golden, Colo., said her earnings are being pinched because customers are leaving smaller tips and foregoing treatments.

“I haven’t been able to get ahead,” said Ms. Glivar, who last year began cleaning an Airbnb rental for a client to help boost her income. She also moved to a styling location with cheaper rent to lift her bottom line. “I’ve never been able to hit that next threshold of $50,000 a year,” she said. Last year her income was several thousand dollars below that.

While ignoring the lack of wage growth, the Trump administration pointed to the poverty decline as evidence that its economic agenda is helping the neediest Americans. “Employment is the best way out of poverty, and President Trump’s policies have made the labor market hotter now than during any time in our history,” said Tomas Philipson, acting chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

So yes, Americans may not be getting richer but at least fewer are forced to resort to begging (at least outside of San Francsico).


Tyler Durden

Fri, 09/27/2019 – 17:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2lEUnMu Tyler Durden

How To Get Gonorrhea

Sex ed got a little schizophrenic in the ’70s, tugged in one direction by the sorts of moral strictures that schools had traditionally included in their curricula and in another direction by the anything-goes ethos of the day. That’s how you got classroom filmstrips like the unfortunately titled How To Get Gonorrhea, which sounds at one moment like it might be about to start moralizing (“If you are promiscuous, sooner or later you will encounter a partner who has gonorrhea, and you are going to get it”) but then starts offering teens tips on how to get tested or treated without their parents finding out.

The good folks at Uncommon Ephemera have been digitizing old filmstrips and posting them on YouTube, and this artifact from 1974 is one of their best finds yet. With psychedelic artwork, a jazzy porn-rock soundtrack, and a V.D. monster whose face, visible at the 0:46 mark, bears a striking resemblance to Monty Burns, here is How To Get Gonorrhea:

The company that produced this—Sunburst Communications—is still around today. But it’s now called the Sunburst Technology Corporation, and its chief focus is educational video games. I guess every era tries to shape young minds in its own way.

(For past editions of the Friday A/V Club, go here.)

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Denver’s Proposed $15.87 Minimum Wage Hike ‘Hurts the People It’s Trying To Help’

Denver is mulling new legislation that would increase the minimum wage to $15.87 an hour by 2021, with additional raises every subsequent year.

Introduced by Democratic Mayor Michael Hancock and Councilwoman At-large Robin Kniech, the measure would take effect in January of 2020, when businesses would be required to pay employees at least $13.87 an hour. After the additional $2 raise in 2021, that minimum would increase by 15 percent or $1.75 an hour—whichever is greater—every year after.

The current Colorado minimum wage is $11.10 an hour.

Researchers have long argued over the merits of minimum wage laws: A study from the University of Washington found that Seattle’s minimum wage hurt the city’s low-skilled workers, while a paper from the University of California, Berkeley says such reservations are unfounded, even in rural areas. It’s likely that there’s at least some truth to both conclusions: Some people earn more, some people work fewer hours for a higher hourly wage and end up breaking even, and some others might be shut out of the workforce altogether.

Yet one industry that tends to fall on the losing end of such proposals is the restaurant industry, which operates on skeletal profit margins—usually topping 6 percent at max.

Like much of the country, Denver offers a tipped wage, a lower hourly base pay for servers and bartenders that allows them to make up the rest—and more—in tips. But unlike much of the country, the Colorado Constitution stipulates that the tipped wage cannot be less than $3.02 below the state minimum, putting Denver’s current tipped base at $8.08. That’s already higher than the federal full minimum wage, which sits at $7.25 an hour. (It’s worth noting that, if tips don’t bring workers to the state’s minimum wage threshold, their employers are legally required to make up the difference.)

“The speed with which this hike would be implemented is extreme,” Sonia Riggs, president and CEO of the Colorado Restaurant Association, tells Reason, noting that restaurants would have a grand total of two months to ready themselves for the first hike. The city council is set to vote on the measure in November. If it passes, she assumes that dining establishments across Denver will first find themselves rushing to raise prices.

“People are not willing [to] pay $25 for a cheeseburger,” says Riggs. “Less eating out is bad for everyone in this business.”

That won’t be the only effect. Riggs says that, as it stands, servers in the city make somewhere between $20-40 on average, an even greater sum than Denver’s proposed minimum wage hike. They’ll see a considerable bump in hourly wages. But kitchen staff, who typically make a marginal rate higher than the state’s $15.87 proposal, will receive nothing at all. Back-of-house employees will thus watch front-of-house staff land a sizable raise, even though the latter were already bringing home considerably more cash.

“When the cook making $17 an hour sees the server getting a 50 percent raise to do the same job, the cook is going to want $20/hour,” says Riggs. “But remember, the restaurant has less money to work with here to accommodate that. So again, the restaurant has to raise prices and decrease costs, including cutting staff, in order to survive.”

Survival is the name of the game in the restaurant industry, and it’s a hard one to win. That becomes even less achievable with large minimum wage hikes: A recent study conducted by two researchers at Harvard Business School found that a median-rated restaurant on Yelp was 14 percent more likely to shutter with every dollar added to the tipped wage. For Denver, those odds would reach 67 percent come January 2021, if the legislation sails through the city council.

Riggs also remarks that restaurants in the area face a labor shortage in kitchen staff. Yet the new legislation would just further aggravate that problem, hamstringing the restaurateurs who want to hire more help, but who can no longer afford it.

“In the case of the restaurant industry,” she says “this proposal actually hurts the people it’s trying to help.”

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US Repo-calypse: The Ghost Of Failed Banks Returns

US Repo-calypse: The Ghost Of Failed Banks Returns

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

Last week’s failure in the US repo market might have had something to do with Deutsche Bank’s disposal of its prime brokerage to BNP, bringing an unwelcome spotlight to the troubled bank and other foreign banks with prime brokerages in America. There are also worrying similarities between Germany’s Deutsche Bank today and Austria’s Credit-Anstalt in 1931, only the scale is far larger and additionally includes derivatives with a gross value of $50 trillion.

If the repo problem spreads, it could also raise questions over the synthetic ETF industry, whose cash and deposits may face escalating counterparty risks in some of the large banks and their prime brokerages. Managers of synthetic ETFs should be urgently re-evaluating their contractual relationships.

Whoever the repo failure involved, it is likely to prove a watershed moment, causing US bankers to more widely consider their exposure to counterparty risk and risky loans, particularly leveraged loans and their collateralised form in CLOs. The deterioration in global trade prospects, as well as the US economic outlook and the likelihood that reducing dollar interest rates to the zero bound will prove insufficient to reverse a decline, will take on a new relevance to their decisions.

Problems under the surface

Last week, something unusual happened: instead of the more normal reverse repurchase agreements, the Fed escalated its repurchase agreements (repos). For the avoidance of doubt, a reverse repo by the Fed involves the Fed borrowing money from commercial banks, secured by collateral held on its balance sheet, typically US Treasury bills. Reverse repos withdraw liquidity from the banking system. With a repo, the opposite happens: the Fed takes in collateral from the banking system and lends money against the collateral, injecting liquidity into the system. The use of reverse repos can be regarded as the Fed’s principal liquidity management tool when the banks have substantial reserves parked with the Fed, which is the case today.

Having inflated its balance sheet following the Lehman crisis by buying US Treasury bonds thereby increasing bank reserves, from 2011 the Fed started to increase its reverse repo position until 2017. In other words, it was taking liquidity out of the banking system, having previously injected massive amounts of it by means of quantitative easing following the Lehman crisis. From early-2017 to October 2018, outstanding reverse repos then halved, implying liquidity was being added. Since then they have increased by roughly half to $325bn, reducing liquidity.

What spooked market commentators was the unexpected increase in the repo rate, which on Tuesday 17 September suddenly jumped from the previous Friday’s level of 2.19% to as much as 10%. By escalating its repo position, a targeted liquidity injection from the Fed followed as it struggled to maintain control over the repo rate, taking its outstanding repos from less than $20bn to $53bn. The Fed cut its Fed Funds Rate to a target of 1.75-2.0% the following day.

On Wednesday, 18 September the Fed’s repo position increased again from $53bn to $75 bn. Furthermore, on Thursday and Friday respectively the Fed’s repo position remained elevated, reaching $105bn last Monday. Interestingly, overnight dollar Libor declined slightly, in line with the reduction in the Fed Funds Rate, apparently unaffected by the higher repo rates in the US, confirming it is specifically a US problem involving the large banks.

There have been a number of explanations by expert commentators as to why the repo rate rocketed, none of them satisfactory. It reminds one of Verse 29 of Fitzgerald’s Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam:

“Myself when young did eagerly frequent

Doctor and Saint, and heard great Argument

About it and about; but evermore

Came out by the same Door as in I went.”

Instead, I have a strong suspicion we are seeing the ghosts of past bank failures, most recently in the UK the sorry tale of Northern Rock which I closely observed. For non-British readers, a short reminder: as a licensed bank, Northern Rock was a mortgage lender which got into difficulties in September 2007, before being nationalised the following February. An old-fashioned run with customers queuing outside its branches seeking to withdraw their deposits had alerted the general public to Northern Rock’s problems. It was unable to tap wholesale money markets, because other banks were unwilling to lend to it on an uncollateralised basis.

The establishment missed the point. As Gillian Tett wrote in the Financial Times at the time, there were increasing concerns over how Libor was operating.[ii] There was a growing divergence in the rates that different banks were quoting in the various currencies priced in Libor, discriminating against the smaller borrowers (actually, an indication of growing counterparty risk, not a supposed failure of Libor). Furthermore, larger banks were reducing their exposure to Libor by sourcing funds from the treasury operations of large companies and using the developing repo market (which is collateralised, unlike Libor – a further indication of increasing systemic concerns) to maintain their overnight balances instead.

I recall vividly being in RP Martin’s office (then a leading money broker – now part of BGC Partners) in December that year, when all Libor offers mysteriously disappeared, leaving borrowers stranded. Having expected for some time that the credit bubble would come to a head and burst, I took this to be a significant signal of a developing crisis.

The following February, Northern Rock, which had depended on money markets for its financing, collapsed and was nationalised by the government, and the great financial crisis duly followed.

Could the erringly similar repo failure today be the ghost of Northern Rock returning to haunt us in New York? If so, we now have a far larger credit bubble to pop, and the figures in the repo market are in tens of billions, instead of tens of millions. This time it is perhaps less obvious to the general public, because old-fashioned public bank runs are probably a thing of the past.

The crisis brewing in 2007 was attributed to residential property and liar loans in America, securitised into collateralised debt obligations (CDOs), sliced and diced to give the appearance of tranches riskless to investors, while the risk was pushed into smaller equity and mezzanine tranches, retained by the sponsors. If we have a repeat performance of that, it is likely to involve the successor to CDOs, collateralised loan obligations (CLOs). They do roughly the same thing, but with low quality corporate debt.

This is why we must take notice of trouble in the repo market, and not dismiss it as just a one-off. The reason for its failure has little to do with, as some commentators have suggested, a general liquidity shortage. That argument is challenged by the increase in the Fed’s reverse repos from $230bn in October 2018 to $325bn on 18 September, which would not have been implemented if there was a general shortage of liquidity. Rather, it appears to be a systemic problem; another Northern Rock, but far larger. Today we call such an event a black swan.

What is today’s Northern Rock – or is it a Credit-Anstalt?

We cannot dismiss the possibility that a large non-American bank operating through a US-licensed subsidiary is perceived by its peers as too risky as a counterparty. This being the case, the most likely candidate is Deutsche Bank, which may be needing a significant liquidity replacement for fleeing deposits, having just concluded the sale of its prime brokerage to BNP. It is one thing to remove a business from the asset side of a bank’s balance sheet, but another to secure the far larger deposits that go with it.

Last July, Bloomberg reported that when the BNP deal was first mooted, Deutsche Bank clients were pulling out a billion dollars every day[iii]. Presumably, that was manageable, with enough liquidity on the asset side of Deutsche Bank’s very large balance sheet to iron out any difficulties, and it had its access to the US repo market.

Coinciding with current events, the BNP deal was finally signed and announced only last Monday, though it would have been known in New York banking circles last week when the difficulties in the repo market surfaced. Furthermore, large depositors would have almost certainly been made aware of the timing in advance in an effort to keep them onside, and some of them may have chosen to simply withdraw their deposits.

The sums involved could easily be large enough to marry up with the support provided by the Fed through the increased level of its repo exposure. Furthermore, we cannot dismiss the likelihood of the problem spreading to the US primary dealers of other foreign banks, including BNP itself.

For comparison, the time-lapse between the failure of the Libor market and Northern Rock’s nationalisation was less than two months. We cannot know for certain whether the trouble in the American repo market and the obvious difficulties faced by Deutsche Bank are definitely linked, let alone comparable in terms of time and outcome to the Northern Rock experience. But banks, hedge funds and operators of synthetic ETFs will be watching closely.

Synthetic ETFs are comprised of cash, near cash and bonds (which are meant to be liquid but often not), while matching their price performance to an index through derivatives. Having grown to an estimated $4 trillion overall, through synthetic ETFs the industry has accumulated substantial quantities of cash, bank deposits and near-cash at large banks with primary dealerships.

If the repo troubles escalate, there is a danger the investment management industry will start to move these funds from banks perceived to have increasing counterparty and operational risk, with potentially devastating consequences for all involved. Cynics have thought for a long time that the ETF industry would end in disaster for investors, without having a convincing explanation of how it would happen. Perhaps we are now beginning to see early evidence pointing to the ending of the ETF phenomenon, and to therefore be able to anticipate the knock-on effects on financial and derivative markets generally.

Returning to the subject of bank relationships, a more worrying comparison between Deutsche Bank and the Northern Rock episode could be with the Credit-Anstalt crisis of May 1931. It was the largest bank in Austria, just as Deutsche is the largest in Germany, a far larger country with a more important economy. Then in Austria and today in Germany, European economies were tipping into recession, forcing large losses onto their banks. Following the 1931 crisis, within months not only Austria but other European countries endured financial distress, the gold exchange standard began to disintegrate, and the international flow of goods was disrupted by growing protectionism as governments tried to batten down the hatches.

The flight of foreign creditors triggered by these events rapidly turned a major crisis in a minor country into a major crisis for all Europe and beyond. Today, if the same fate were to happen to Deutsche Bank, not only would it be on a far larger scale, but there is the additional question of the gross notional value of its derivatives book of nearly $50 trillion and the future of the euro itself. Is it any wonder, if Deutsche is indeed at the centre of last week’s repo crisis, that other major banks, have decided to step back and refused to accept its collateral in a repo?

The other major banks appear to have left the Fed to pick up the pieces by taking over the repo market. Another potential problem is China, with the Financial Times reporting only eleven days ago that Chinese groups are shedding $40bn in global assets, with a sub-heading that warned US divestments are soaring[iv]. Then there is the unexpected escalation of domestic funding requirements faced by Saudi Arabia in the wake of the attack on her oil refining facilities, almost certainly being covered by the sale of dollar balances in New York.

This confirms that some of the liquidity problems exposed by the repo market may be due to a reduction in dollar balances by both foreign corporations and governments, contrary to a wide-held belief that in a crisis, foreigners should be scrambling to buy dollars. It could throw an unexpected spotlight on US banks, including those with foreign ownership, with direct and indirect Chinese and Saudi connections. Though as mentioned below, with $307.9bn withdrawn in the year to July, foreign withdrawals appear to be a more widespread problem than exposed by current events. Whether it is the major force behind the repo crisis should be considered in the light of the dollar’s performance on the foreign exchanges, which has been remarkably steady in recent weeks.

Collateralised and leveraged loans may be to follow

The course of a credit crisis often starts with an initial shock followed by the uncovering of deeper problems. Almost everyone is taken by surprise by the initial shock, not realising its importance as a signal for a change in bankers’ attitudes to risk. The expression of purely technical reasons for the disruption in the repo market assume that what was known before still applies and there are no other factors involved; just an error of judgement by the authorities in managing markets. This is likely to be a mistake because markets are dynamic, and we can identify three separate reasons why no one should be complacent:

1. A slowdown in the US economy, yet to be reflected in backward-looking statistics, leads to a reduction in corporate cash levels and a drawdown of revolving credit to finance accumulating inventory. US banks may be already seeing evidence of this in some sectors.

2. There has been a reduction in dollar balances by foreign corporations and governments held through correspondent banks (note that in the twelve months to July 2019, there have been net withdrawals of $307.9bn[v]). Bankers will have been assuming that this is a temporary phenomenon, given the dollar’s reserve status. That hope is now being dispelled.

3. American banks are becoming more cautious of counterparty risk in wholesale money markets generally.

Following the current repo hiatus, a combination of all three is likely to lead to a change in the thinking of commercial bankers, with the first two fuelling the third. As to whether the problem is regarded as temporary or rings serious alarm bells, we need to dig more deeply into the marginal loan business which could tip the banks into a collective crisis, even if the immediate repo problem subsides. An obvious candidate is CLOs and uncollateralised leveraged loans.

According to the Bank for International Settlements, outstanding collateralised loan obligations are split with approximately $1.2 trillion in US dollars, and $200bn equivalent in euros[vi]. The dollar exposure accounts for half of all leveraged loans in the US financial system, so the total size of the US leveraged loan market is more like $2.4 trillion, which compares with the book value of total equity capital for commercial banks in the US of $1.95 trillion. While direct bank exposure to CLOs is estimated at only $250bn, they are bound to have the lion’s share of the rest of the leveraged loan market, giving them a total exposure of up to $1.5 trillion without indirect exposure being taken into account. Most of American banks’ equity capital is therefor at risk.

Collateralised or not, leveraged loans are bank loans to highly indebted corporations with high interest servicing costs barely covered by earnings, and mostly rated at less than investment grade. In an economic downturn these are the businesses that are the first to fail, and underlying asset quality is already reported by the BIS to be deteriorating. Furthermore, as global interest rates and bond yields have fallen towards and into negative territory, the demand for higher yielding CLOs has increased and the underlying quality decreased. The debt to earnings ratio of leveraged borrowers securitised in CLOs has risen and CLOs without maintenance covenants have grown from 20% in 2012 to 80% in 2018.

In its report, the BIS warns that there are additional spill-overs that could arise from disruptions in market liquidity, a statement that is particularly apt considering the current disruption in the repo market. Given the involvement of hedge funds, fixed income mutual funds and bank loan funds, when the credit cycle has more obviously turned there will almost certainly be a rush to sell these CLOs, likely to lead to fire sales with a potential to cascade losses in the manner seen with residential property CDOs eleven years ago.

Consider, for a moment, the position of a typical large US bank and the changing commercial motivations of its directors. Following the Lehman crisis, lending margins to non-financial corporations never really compensated for the risk of extending credit to anything other than large corporations and consumers prepared to pay credit card rates of interest. As the economy gradually recovered, loans to investment grade borrowers increased. Along with higher yields and with a AAA rating attached, lending to sub-investment grade borrowers became increasingly available through CLOs. Once the CLO ice was broken, even better yields were available by lending directly to sub-investment grade borrowers, the key being improving economic prospects underpinning the borrowers’ earnings. Furthermore, the bank’s competitors were also allocating increasing amounts of credit towards borrowers of this sort, so it is nearly impossible for our typical large bank not to follow them.

So far, all lending will appear to conform to the bank’s lending risk criteria, assuming of course that economic prospects are improving. The moment that stops, the directors of the bank will feel exposed and try to contain, then reduce their exposure to loan risk. In this respect, the change in the Fed’s interest rate policy is the clearest signal of an economic slowdown and rings the bell on the soundness of lending assumptions. This also includes considerations of systemic risk, in other words the risk of lending money to other banks and financial institutions deemed to be exposed to both CLOs and other leveraged loans.

As with all humanity, the rapid transposition from greed to fear afflicts bankers as well. If anything, given their tight group-thinking it is especially acute, turning on a dime. The expectation that the Fed was going to cut its Fed Funds Rate could act as a catalyst for fear, instead of laying concerns to rest over lending margin prospects. And bankers have good reason to be extremely concerned when they cast their attention towards geopolitics, the global and domestic economic outlook, and the growing threat of negative interest rates. And here, the news is not encouraging.

Geopolitics and the destruction of global trade

When President Trump embarked on a policy of penalising China with tariffs, the general assumption in financial markets was that a settlement would be achieved before long. Instead, the situation has deteriorated and realistically is nowhere nearer resolution. The effect of the trade dispute has been not only to harm both parties but has resulted in collateral damage as well.

Germany, whose fastest growing market was China, has been driven into recession, with last Monday’s purchasing managers’ index headlined as “simply awful”. With Germany being the locomotive pulling along all the other Eurozone members, this is already leading to deepening concerns for the Eurozone’s outlook and a resumption of asset purchases by the ECB (quantitative easing) is now due in November. It is also very bad news for Germany’s hard-pressed banking community, represented in New York by Deutsche Bank.

US banks will undoubtedly be increasingly aware of the negative impact of Trump’s tariffs on international trade through the credit demands of their customers. Now they see America drifting towards a new conflict in the Middle East against Iran. Saudi’s oil production has been hit by drones and missiles, allegedly from Iran, and the oil price could well increase substantially as a result. It could even drag Russia and China into a conflict. Hong Kong has been paralysed by riots, with China suspecting American provocation.

Clearly, the conflict between America and China has escalated well beyond just tariffs, making it difficult to visualise how the damage to global trade can be corrected. The economic outlook is therefore set to deteriorate further, with no end to it in sight. From a banker’s viewpoint, a global recession is the greatest threat to his business as a financial intermediary between failing borrowers and nervous depositors. He can only survive by taking anticipatory action to avoid potential losses.

Some bankers will have been clinging to the hope that the Fed, by reducing interest rates and if necessary, reintroducing quantitative easing, will rescue the US economy from outright recession and that economic growth will resume. Without doubt, this is the advice being given to management by in-house economists, unfamiliar with today’s destructive dynamics of tariffs combining with a failing late-stage credit cycle. These conditions were last seen in 1929, when Smoot-Hawley tariffs coincided with the end of a long phase of credit expansion. However, there is little statistical evidence so far that the US economy faces anything more than a pause in economic growth, which is why stock prices and other collateralised assets have held their values.

The reality is that a credit crisis cannot be avoided, only deferred. It is also hard to see how zero interest rates reduced from current levels can be enough to rescue markets that, on the evidence from the repo market, are beginning to price growing counterparty risk into interbank loans. Recent experience and central banking models suggest that dollar interest rates should be reduced by at least four or five per cent to stabilise the situation, putting them deep into negative territory. And as for negative rates, there is no development more likely to drive depositors into gold, silver and other media to escape from the taxation of negative rates on deposits.

Outcomes and their timing

Having been warned that not all is hunky-dory in Repo-land, the more forward-thinking bankers will begin to foresee the risks this reality will bring. One hopes that Deutsche Bank does not suffer a fate similar to that of Austria’s Credit-Anstalt in 1931 with the consequences that followed, but one cannot rule the possibility out, given that Germany is already in recession and the outlook for her weakened, undercapitalised banks is exceedingly grim.

That being the case, a new banking crisis is not only in the making, for which the repo problem serves as an early warning, but it could escalate quite rapidly. Given the rethinking that must be taking place in the boardrooms at all the major US banks, bankers will be looking at not only their exposure to Deutsche, but also the implications for their wider lending exposure to other American counterparties, particularly those owned by foreign banks.

Understanding there will be a transition of attitudes from investing in CLOs and leveraged loans to a concern over their soundness is the key to realising how a credit crisis evolves. This time, as well as a mountain of derivative contracts, there is the further problem of synthetic ETFs, many of which are sponsored and managed by the same bank. For example, Deutsche Bank controls 42 ETFs in the US market alone, worth $14.6bn, all of which appear to be synthetic.

Assuming this analysis is correct, there is probably not much the Fed can do, other than react to events. Like all central banks, the Fed relies on models that cannot incorporate the changing attitudes of market participants. Just imagine, if the Fed did spot a developing crisis in advance and called in the major bankers in an effort to get them to help stabilise the situation, they would likely leave the meeting with the clear impression things are worse than they thought, and their clear duty to their shareholders is to liquidate all positions at risk.

If it took two months between Libor freezing in December 2007 and Northern Rock being rescued by the UK government and if that timing is replicated today, a new banking crisis will hit in November. It could easily take longer to materialise, but there’s no guarantee it won’t escalate even more rapidly than that.


Tyler Durden

Fri, 09/27/2019 – 17:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2nf6qAO Tyler Durden

Denver’s Proposed $15.87 Minimum Wage Hike ‘Hurts the People It’s Trying To Help’

Denver is mulling new legislation that would increase the minimum wage to $15.87 an hour by 2021, with additional raises every subsequent year.

Introduced by Democratic Mayor Michael Hancock and Councilwoman At-large Robin Kniech, the measure would take effect in January of 2020, when businesses would be required to pay employees at least $13.87 an hour. After the additional $2 raise in 2021, that minimum would increase by 15 percent or $1.75 an hour—whichever is greater—every year after.

The current Colorado minimum wage is $11.10 an hour.

Researchers have long argued over the merits of minimum wage laws: A study from the University of Washington found that Seattle’s minimum wage hurt the city’s low-skilled workers, while a paper from the University of California, Berkeley says such reservations are unfounded, even in rural areas. It’s likely that there’s at least some truth to both conclusions: Some people earn more, some people work fewer hours for a higher hourly wage and end up breaking even, and some others might be shut out of the workforce altogether.

Yet one industry that tends to fall on the losing end of such proposals is the restaurant industry, which operates on skeletal profit margins—usually topping 6 percent at max.

Like much of the country, Denver offers a tipped wage, a lower hourly base pay for servers and bartenders that allows them to make up the rest—and more—in tips. But unlike much of the country, the Colorado Constitution stipulates that the tipped wage cannot be less than $3.02 below the state minimum, putting Denver’s current tipped base at $8.08. That’s already higher than the federal full minimum wage, which sits at $7.25 an hour. (It’s worth noting that, if tips don’t bring workers to the state’s minimum wage threshold, their employers are legally required to make up the difference.)

“The speed with which this hike would be implemented is extreme,” Sonia Riggs, president and CEO of the Colorado Restaurant Association, tells Reason, noting that restaurants would have a grand total of two months to ready themselves for the first hike. The city council is set to vote on the measure in November. If it passes, she assumes that dining establishments across Denver will first find themselves rushing to raise prices.

“People are not willing [to] pay $25 for a cheeseburger,” says Riggs. “Less eating out is bad for everyone in this business.”

That won’t be the only effect. Riggs says that, as it stands, servers in the city make somewhere between $20-40 on average, an even greater sum than Denver’s proposed minimum wage hike. They’ll see a considerable bump in hourly wages. But kitchen staff, who typically make a marginal rate higher than the state’s $15.87 proposal, will receive nothing at all. Back-of-house employees will thus watch front-of-house staff land a sizable raise, even though the latter were already bringing home considerably more cash.

“When the cook making $17 an hour sees the server getting a 50 percent raise to do the same job, the cook is going to want $20/hour,” says Riggs. “But remember, the restaurant has less money to work with here to accommodate that. So again, the restaurant has to raise prices and decrease costs, including cutting staff, in order to survive.”

Survival is the name of the game in the restaurant industry, and it’s a hard one to win. That becomes even less achievable with large minimum wage hikes: A recent study conducted by two researchers at Harvard Business School found that a median-rated restaurant on Yelp was 14 percent more likely to shutter with every dollar added to the tipped wage. For Denver, those odds would reach 67 percent come January 2021, if the legislation sails through the city council.

Riggs also remarks that restaurants in the area face a labor shortage in kitchen staff. Yet the new legislation would just further aggravate that problem, hamstringing the restaurateurs who want to hire more help, but who can no longer afford it.

“In the case of the restaurant industry,” she says “this proposal actually hurts the people it’s trying to help.”

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Beto Goes to Kent State, Argues Only the Government Can Be Trusted With Guns

Of all the places to argue that only the government should be trusted with guns, Beto O’Rourke picked…Kent State University.

Kent State is, of course, the location of the infamous 1970 shooting that left four students dead and nine others injured. The shots were fired not by private citizens but by members of the Ohio National Guard, who shot at a crowd protesting America’s involvement in the Vietnam War.

Invoking armed agents of the state gunning down unarmed civilians is an interesting way to argue that Americans would be better off if the government forcefully disarmed private citizens. But hey, I guess that’s why we keep being told Beto’s an “unconventional” candidate.

Since the mass shooting at a Walmart in his hometown of El Paso, Texas, former congressman O’Rourke has tried to jump-start his flailing presidential campaign by being the candidate who is most gung-ho about gun control. He made headlines at the most recent Democratic debate by promising, “Hell yes, we’re going to take your AR-15.” More specifically, he is proposing a ban on “the manufacturing, sale, and possession of military-style assault weapons”—that is, semiautomatic rifles with certain cosmetic characteristics.

“Americans who own AR-15s [or] AK-47s will have to sell them to the government,” O’Rourke has explained. “We’re not going to allow them to stay on our streets, to show up in our communities, to be used against us in our synagogues, our churches, our mosques, our Walmarts, our public places.”

As J.D. Tuccille pointed out last month, there’s scant evidence to suggest that such a policy could be implemented effectively, and it’s pretty unclear how O’Rourke would get gun owners to comply with the law.

When New Jersey implemented a similar policy in the early 1990s, the state obtained a mere 18 guns of the estimated 100,000 to 300,000 firearms owned by Garden State residents—and only four were turned over voluntarily. Australia’s much ballyhooed gun buyback program netted between 650,000 and 1 million firearms, about a quarter of the estimated number of guns owned by Australians at time. There are believed to be more than 350 million privately owned guns in the United States.

Taking the rest would require a massive mobilization of federal, state, and local law enforcement.

O’Rourke’s plan to take guns out of private citizens’ hands would not have prevented the Kent State massacre. But it would create lots of new opportunities for agents of the state to point guns at Americans who aren’t a threat to anyone.

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Beto Goes to Kent State, Argues Only the Government Can Be Trusted With Guns

Of all the places to argue that only the government should be trusted with guns, Beto O’Rourke picked…Kent State University.

Kent State is, of course, the location of the infamous 1970 shooting that left four students dead and nine others injured. The shots were fired not by private citizens but by members of the Ohio National Guard, who shot at a crowd protesting America’s involvement in the Vietnam War.

Invoking armed agents of the state gunning down unarmed civilians is an interesting way to argue that Americans would be better off if the government forcefully disarmed private citizens. But hey, I guess that’s why we keep being told Beto’s an “unconventional” candidate.

Since the mass shooting at a Walmart in his hometown of El Paso, Texas, former congressman O’Rourke has tried to jump-start his flailing presidential campaign by being the candidate who is most gung-ho about gun control. He made headlines at the most recent Democratic debate by promising, “Hell yes, we’re going to take your AR-15.” More specifically, he is proposing a ban on “the manufacturing, sale, and possession of military-style assault weapons”—that is, semiautomatic rifles with certain cosmetic characteristics.

“Americans who own AR-15s [or] AK-47s will have to sell them to the government,” O’Rourke has explained. “We’re not going to allow them to stay on our streets, to show up in our communities, to be used against us in our synagogues, our churches, our mosques, our Walmarts, our public places.”

As J.D. Tuccille pointed out last month, there’s scant evidence to suggest that such a policy could be implemented effectively, and it’s pretty unclear how O’Rourke would get gun owners to comply with the law.

When New Jersey implemented a similar policy in the early 1990s, the state obtained a mere 18 guns of the estimated 100,000 to 300,000 firearms owned by Garden State residents—and only four were turned over voluntarily. Australia’s much ballyhooed gun buyback program netted between 650,000 and 1 million firearms, about a quarter of the estimated number of guns owned by Australians at time. There are believed to be more than 350 million privately owned guns in the United States.

Taking the rest would require a massive mobilization of federal, state, and local law enforcement.

O’Rourke’s plan to take guns out of private citizens’ hands would not have prevented the Kent State massacre. But it would create lots of new opportunities for agents of the state to point guns at Americans who aren’t a threat to anyone.

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Rashida Tlaib Pushes “Impeach The Mother*****r” T-Shirts

Rashida Tlaib Pushes “Impeach The Mother*****r” T-Shirts

Referring to a controversial comments she exclaimed on her first day in office, Democratic Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib is cashing in on Speaker Pelosi’s decision to begin an impeachment inquiry into President Trump.

The outspoken muslim congresswoman has launched her own t-shirt line with her infamous emblazoned across the chest – “Impeach The MF.”

“Lean in with me to hold this lawless President accountable,” Tlaib, who represents Michigan’s 13th Congressional District, asked on Twitter.

Stay classy, Michigan!


Tyler Durden

Fri, 09/27/2019 – 16:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2nX1z7D Tyler Durden

Indian Airline Passenger ‘Busted’ Smuggling Gold In His Man-Boobs

Indian Airline Passenger ‘Busted’ Smuggling Gold In His Man-Boobs

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

Are you ready for this week’s absurdity? Here’s our Friday roll-up of the most ridiculous stories from around the world that are threats to your liberty and finances.

And for our Jewish readers, l’shanah tovah tikatev v’taihatem.

NBC news wants you to confess your climate sins

Bless me media, for I have sinned.

NBC news is soliciting comments from readers on how they could do more to prevent climate change.

“Even those who care deeply about the planet’s future can slip up now and then,” the website reads, “Tell us: Where do you fall short in preventing climate change? Do you blast the A/C? Throw out half your lunch? Grill a steak every week? Share your anonymous confession with NBC News.”

One man confessed to using k-cups, the individual serving plastic coffee cups, at work, and hiding this fact from his wife.

Another read, “I claimed that I’m vegan but secretly still eating chicken and I feel terrible!”

Doesn’t it feel good to confess your climate sins?

Yeah, this is definitely not a cult.

Click here for the full story.

Airline passenger caught smuggling gold in his man boobs

Customs officials at Indira Gandhi International Airport in Delhi received a tip about a passenger who had just arrived on Aeroflot flight 272 from Moscow yesterday.

Upon a thorough inspection, the customs officers found nearly $50,000 worth of gold hidden in the man’s brazier… as well as a lady’s purse that was packed in his suitcase.

This is actually an offense in India, which has completely Draconian and idiotic laws related to gold.

People in India do not trust their money; they know the government plays games with the currency, and that’s why they’ve traditionally diversified their savings into gold.

It’s so ridiculous that, in 2016, the Indian government even cancelled the 500 and 1,000 rupee notes. They thought they were combating tax fraud. But given India’s vast, unbanked population, they just ended up plunging the country into chaos.

Indian officials further screw over their citizens by heavily regulating the movement of gold into/out of India.

Key lessons: It makes sense to store some gold in a safe place overseas, away from your home country. And… never travel with gold through India.

Click here for the full story.

UK’s Labour Party wants to ban private schools

The United Kingdom’s Labour Party approved a new platform at last week’s annual conference.

The party pledged to ban private schools and “absorb” them into the public education system if they come to power in the next election.

The platform states, “the ongoing existence of private schools is incompatible with Labour’s pledge to promote social justice”.

So the plan is to nationalize private schools, and seize their assets to be “redistributed democratically and fairly across the country’s educational institutions”.

It’s the only fair way to bring down “systems of privilege”.

Click here for the full story.

Cop arrests 6 year old girl for throwing a tantrum

A six year old girl kicked someone at school while throwing a tantrum.

So the school resource officer handcuffed her, brought here to a juvenile detention facility where she was fingerprinted and had a mugshot taken.

Then they informed the family about the arrest, and allowed them to take the little girl home.

This same officer had actually arrested an eight year old boy earlier the same week. Both times he failed to get the required approval from his boss before arresting the children, and no one from the school saw fit to step in.

And no, this is not the same incident we talked about a couple weeks ago where a school resource officer handcuffed an autistic 8 year old boy.

This officer was hired to work in a school with young children, despite having previous complaints for tasing someone five times unnecessarily, and being charged with abusing his own child back in the 90s.

Click here for the full story.


Tyler Durden

Fri, 09/27/2019 – 16:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2ms4RiP Tyler Durden

Prisons Are the Hardest Places to Read About Mass Incarceration

The prison staff carted the books away in late January, removing more than 200 titles from a small library inside the Danville Correctional Center in Illinois.

The library was part of the Education Justice Project (EJP), a college education program for inmates run by the University of Illinois. The prison removed the books without notice; Rebecca Ginsburg, director of the program, says it took weeks to get an answer about why the library had been pillaged. She was eventually told that prison officials had decided the books hadn’t gone through the proper review process. Emails obtained through public records requests later revealed that they had been concerned about “racially motivated” materials in the library.

According to Ginsburg, the removal followed months of increased scrutiny that included rejecting books from the proposed curriculum for the upcoming semester. Among the rejected or removed titles: W.E.B. Du Bois’s The Souls of Black Folks, the autobiography of Frederick Douglass, and Booker T. Washington’s Up From Slavery.

“At one point they actually threatened to throw away the books that they had confiscated, over 200 books,” Ginsburg says. “I’m a professor, so to me books are this magical thing, and to talk about throwing books away…it was extraordinary.”

The censorship drew national headlines and brought embarrassing attention to the state prison system. The Illinois Department of Corrections has since revised its literature policies, although the books taken from EJP were never returned.

The incident at Danville was just one of several stories about prison censorship to make the national news this year, and only a small example of the unmitigated power of prison censors across the country, according to a new report released this week by PEN America.

The report details how U.S. prisons arbitrarily apply book bans in the name of institutional security. Texas, for example, bans The Color Purple but not Mein Kampf. Michelle Alexander’s The New Jim Crow was banned in prisons in North Carolina, Florida, Michigan, and New Jersey, although those bans were reversed after they received media attention. A New York prison tried to ban a book of maps of the moon, claiming it presented an escape risk.

The PEN America report concludes that prison book censorship policies across the country “are almost uniformly overbroad, arbitrary, under-examined, under-challenged, and maximally restrictive well past the point of reason.”

Other state prison systems have tried to ban donations of used books to inmates, citing flimsy concerns over contraband. And publications that report aggressively on the criminal justice system, such as Reason, are often impounded by prison censors. Prison Legal News, a vital source of legal information for inmates, is completely banned in Florida prisons.

“We see over and over again that it’s disproportionately books by or about people of color, books that are critical of the criminal justice system, and books that advocate minority or controversial political or social views,” says David Fathi, director of the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) national prison project. “This is the kind of content-based and viewpoint-based censorship that is most inimical to First Amendment values.”

The result is that the hardest place to read about the U.S. criminal justice system—the subject of bestselling books, a glut of podcasts, and prestige television shows and documentaries—is from inside the U.S. criminal justice system.

For example, earlier this year the Arizona’s Department of Corrections (ADOC) banned Paul Butler’s Chokehold: Policing Black Men, a nonfiction book about race and policing. The ACLU sent a demand letter arguing the ban violated the First Amendment. The ACLU was preparing to litigate when the ADOC relented and reversed the ban in June.

In April, the ACLU sent a letter to the Chatham County Sheriff in Georgia urging him to rescind a policy that banned almost all books except for the sparse few already on the jail’s book cart.

Maryland officials also briefly floated a proposal to severely limit from its prisons. They scrapped the idea after receiving a swift public backlash.

Last year, Pennsylvania and Washington both attempted to ban donations of used books to inmates. All books would have to be purchased through approved vendors, which often offer limited selections at high prices or require inmates to purchase electronic tablets. The prisons cited security concerns over contraband, but news investigations showed there was little actual evidence of smuggling via donated dictionaries.

Nonprofit groups like Books to Prisoners, which sends thousands of volumes a year to inmates who request them, say such policies have been getting more restrictive in recent years.

“Prison book programs have been having to deal with this for years and years and years, and it just seems to be getting worse since the end of 2017,” says Michelle Dillon, a board member of Books to Prisoners.

Dillon says Books to Prisoners spends about $70,000 a year sending packages of books to inmates, roughly $45,000 of which goes toward shipping costs. It doesn’t have the money or resources to keep track of shifting mailroom policies and book ban lists. (Kansas prisons, for example, banned 7,000 different titles until recently.)

“We just have to cross prisons off the list at some point and redirect our limited money towards those prisons where we can be assured that we’ll get in,” Dillon says. “It’s unfortunate of course for the people who are incarcerated in that state, because I know they want books, and we want to send them books. But oftentimes you just have to send a little note card back to say, ‘Hey, we’re sorry, but your facility does not allow our program.'”

For inmates, more than 95 percent of whom will be released at some point, books more than just a temporary mental escape from confinement.

“Those books tell people who are incarcerated not to give up,” Jarrett Adams, a formerly incarcerated civil rights attorney, told PEN America. “I would not be where I am today if it weren’t for having been able to read certain books that addressed systemic racism and mass incarceration.”

While what goes on behind prison walls may seem like a distant concern for people on the outside, Fathi says it is quite the opposite.

“Prisoners are the canary in the coal mine,” Fathi says. “When you look at how the government treats prisoners, you see what unchecked, arbitrary government power looks like. And it’s not pretty.”

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