Trump’s Trade Deal With Japan Is Good. Staying in the TPP Would Have Been Better.

President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan have reached a deal that promises to cut tariffs and boost trade between the two nations. That’s good news. But the agreement is also a disappointing reminder of a better deal that could have been.

The pact, announced Wednesday, is an undeniably positive development for American businesses and a rare pro-trade maneuver from the Trump administration. Japan agreed to reduce or eliminate tariffs on many American agricultural exports, including beef, pork, corn, and some fruit. In return, the U.S. will reduce tariffs on Japanese industrial products, bicycles, flowers, tea, and other items. The deal also bars either country from raising duties on digital products, such as streaming videos, music, and video games.

A joint statement issued by the two leaders states that the agreement is a step toward settling other tariff-related issues—a signal that Trump’s threat of hitting Japanese-made cars with tariffs could be off the table now.

“This is a huge victory for America’s farmers, ranchers, and growers,” Trump said at a press conference announcing the deal. “And that’s very important to me.”

Indeed, increasing access to Japanese markets could be a $7 billion boost for American farmers—who have been hit particularly hard by Trump’s trade wars, which have sharply reduced exports to China. But American farmers could already have had greater access to Japan, and to a number of other countries around the Pacific Ocean, if Trump had not yanked America out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) shortly after taking office.

Trump’s opposition to the TPP, a 13-nation trade agreement the Obama administration was trying to put together, was supposedly rooted in his belief that the bilateral trade deals he promised to negotiate would be better for Americans. But the very agricultural tariff reductions Trump is trumpeting as a victory for American farmers in his Japan deal were also part of the TPP.

In other words, if the U.S. had remained in the TPP, American farmers would already be benefitting from lower tariffs on beef and pork exported to Japan. And they would have greater access to other nations too. Trump is celebrating the benefits of a single trade pact when he could have had much more.

“It really is a pretty small-scale trade agreement,” says Clark Packard, a trade policy counsel with the R Street Institute. “The TPP was a better deal than this. It encompassed a lot more areas of trade. It had more members, it was more expansive, and we wasted a lot of time and effort to get to this point.”

The TPP would have eliminated 18,000 tariffs that the partner countries currently impose on American exports. It also would have included soybean exports, which are notably not part of the U.S.–Japan deal.

The TPP was not perfect. Like any trade deal, it would have set rules that favored some politically connected U.S. exporters. It was hundreds of pages long, much of which was dedicated to trying to impose American labor, environmental, and intellectual property rules on other countries. In an ideal world, politicians and bureaucrats would have no role to play in the trade between people and businesses, no matter how many national borders are crossed in the process. If Trump wanted to scrap the TPP in favor of simpler deals that merely reduced tariffs and other barriers to trade, that would have been an improvement.

Instead he has done the opposite. He has raised tariffs on many imports—which means hiking taxes on American consumers and businesses—and his decision to abandon the TPP deprived American businesses of new opportunities in Asian markets.

Signing a trade with Japan is a small step in the right direction, but it only cancels out a portion of the damage Trump has done. “It’s better than the status quo,” says Packard, “but not as good as it could have been.”

 

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The Decentralized Web Is Coming

Google handles 88 percent of search traffic in the United States. Facebook has more than 2.4 billion active monthly users worldwide. Half of all U.S. online retail is projected to go through Amazon by 2021.

Both Democrats and Republicans have called for breaking up the tech giants, holding them legally liable for what others say on their platforms, and imposing new regulations that would stop them from misusing their customers’ personal information. But there’s also a growing movement, which includes some of the web’s early pioneers, to come up with technological ways to counter Facebook, Amazon, Twitter, and Google.

The goal is to build a better, more decentralized web.

“There are so many different possible ways of decentralizing the internet, and what’s lacking is the legal right to interoperate and the legal support to stop dirty tricks from preventing you from exercising that legal right,” says Cory Doctorow, a science fiction author and tech journalist who’s been thinking and writing about the web since Tim Berners-Lee introduced it to the public in the early 1990s.

Berners-Lee and other web pioneers intended for their creation to be decentralized and open-source. “The cyber-utopian view was not merely that seizing the means of information would make you free, but that failing to do so would put you in perpetual chains,” says Doctorow.

There are many theories about why the web became centralized. Doctorow largely blames the abuse of intellectual property law to defeat the decentralized “free software” movement championed by the programmer and activist Richard Stallman. Stallman helped create the popular open-source operating system Linux after freely modifying Unix, Bell Labs’ proprietary system.

But the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, passed in 1998, became an impediment to the open and permissionless approach to software development. The law was intended to prevent duplication of copryrighted works and was eventually applied to all software. Breaking “digital locks” to learn from, interact with, and improve upon the code of dominant web platforms became a federal crime. It’s standard practice for today’s tech companies to shield their proprietary code from would-be competitors by wielding the power of an increasingly expansive intellectual property regime.

“And so this thicket of exclusive rights around products that can be invoked to prevent new entrants for making add-ons, compatible products, or even competing products is a really important change in the landscape,” says Doctorow. “One that has made it very hard for new entrants to emerge and I think is in large part responsible for the concentration in the industry.”

Despite these legal and political challenges, innovators are attempting to create new decentralized ecosystems of web services.

Mitra Ardon is the head of decentralization at the Internet Archive, a digital repository of more than 50 petabytes of images, movies, and texts—including more than 330 billion webpages.

“The archive’s mission is to make all of mankind’s knowledge available online forever to everyone for free, which is a pretty big vision, right?” says Ardon.

He says the history of the web is too important to be held in custody by a single organization. So he’s overseeing a plan to migrate the Internet Archive’s more than 50 million gigabytes of data to a distributed network maintained by users.

A beta version of this peer-to-peer network is already operating and publicly accessible.

“I think what [a more decentralized web] would look like is a world where servers were everywhere, that your internet router at home would also be a server,” says Ardon.

Doctorow doesn’t think the decentralized web can take off without government intervention. He agrees with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Josh Hawley (R–Mo.) that the Federal Trade Commission should break up the tech giants.

“[The tech giants] got giant doing what we used to ban and that we stopped banning right when the tech industry started,” says Doctorow, who argues that Ronald Reagan and the federal courts undermined the original intent of the Sherman Antitrust Act during the 1980s using the legal theories of former federal judge Robert Bork:

Every president since Reagan has expanded Bork’s doctrine, allowing for even more aggressive market concentration, producing a country (and a world) where a handful of firms dominate virtually every industry, from telcoms to talent agencieswrestling to eyewear, to Big Tech

But in the October 2019 issue of Reason magazine, economist Thomas Hazlett argues that sweeping antitrust action has often entrenched existing players, largely due to the phenomenon of regulatory capture:

The late Nobel laureate George Stigler started as a “bust ’em up” guy: In 1952 he wrote an article in Fortune stating the “case against Big Business” and calling for the dissolution of General Motors. But through observation and analysis, Stigler’s view progressed until he arrived at an antitrust policy that gave dynamic forces their due and put consumer interests at the center. He came to see government institutions as imperfect, and he posited in a 1971 paper the theory of “regulatory capture,” whereby “regulation is acquired by the industry and is designed and operated primarily for its benefit.”

Arguments about antitrust aside, the technological tools needed to bring about a more decentralized web may already exist, though they’re not yet widely implemented.

“Web 3.0 has this wonderful set of trust baked into the Internet itself,” says Molly Mackinlay, a former Google programmer and a current project lead of the InterPlanetary File System (IPFS), a communications protocol that’s meant to replace the hypertext transfer protocol (HTTP) that most of us use to access the web now. While HTTP connects your computer to a particular server, IPFS scours the network for a piece of content, which gets assigned a unique ID marker and connects you to whomever happens to be hosting it.

Mackinlay wants a decentralized web that relies less on centralized servers and more on distributed storage networks—such as Filecoin, a cryptographic token that rewards users for storing data. This, she says, would be an effective way to sidestep the dangers of censorship and overregulation.

“That’s a better, safer, more resilient world, which doesn’t end up…susceptible to authoritarian manipulation and control,” says Mackinlay.

Produced by Zach Weissmueller. Camera by Alexis Garcia, John Osterhoudt, and Weissmueller. Opening graphic by Lex Villena. Additional graphics by Meredith Bragg.

Photo credits: Preston Ehrler/ZUMA Press/Newscom, Stefani Reynolds/CNP/Polaris/Newscom, ITU Pictures (under CC Attribution 2.0 License), Jeremy Hogan/Polaris/Newscom. 

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September Container Shipping Rates Collapse 43% Forcing Carriers To Slash Capacity

September Container Shipping Rates Collapse 43% Forcing Carriers To Slash Capacity

Container shipping rates continue to move lower into the fourth quarter of 2019, according to FreightWaves. The drop in price comes as a result of the most recent round of tariffs discouraging U.S. importers from front loading orders. As a result, ocean carriers are looking to cut even more shipping capacity in hopes of meeting tepid demand into the back end of the year. 

Spot rates on the Freightos Baltic Daily Index for China-North America West Coast were down 8% from last week, falling to $1,327 per forty-foot equivalent unit. Container rates are down 34% since the beginning of the year, despite the industry now being in peak season. 

The drop is even steeper when compared to last year’s peak season, which had the tailwind of container front-loading from China ahead of tariff increases. September spot rates are down 43% year over year and are down 14% from 2017. 

Freightos Chief Marketing Officer Eytan Buchman says the collapse is likely due to a “tepid response” to the latest round of tariff increases. The increases were supposed to start on October 1, but have been delayed until October 15. The U.S. is set to meet with China for trade talks on October 10. The next round of tariff increases will come on $200 billion in Chinese goods and will see tariffs rise to 30% from 25%.

Tariffs on $188 billion in goods that are slated for December could help revive shipping demand, however. 

Buchman said:

“Trans-Pacific pricing remains at the mercy of the trade tariff war. The most recent tariff change carries less clout than predecessors due to the short, five week notice and the limited scope of goods affected.”

He continued: 

“Given the weak peak season prices, carriers will be banking on post-Golden Week increases, as well as the December 15 tariff change, to shore up prices. With a significantly longer four month notice, there’s a better chance that this tariff increase will lead to increased shipping – and freight rates – come October and November.”

The drop in demand is forcing shippers to cut more capacity. For example, Ocean Alliance plans to cut up to seven sailings between October 15 and December 2 in order to meet the poor demand. This news comes after nine weekly sailings between Asia and the West Coast of the U.S. were cancelled during China’s Golden Week celebration. 

According to FreightWaves, the cancelled sailings include:

  • Two, 8,830 TEU sailings for the Port of Long Beach at the end of November and start of December

  • Two weekly services into the Port of Los Angeles in December, one with 13,940 TEU in capacity, one with 6,680 TEU of capacity

  • A Seattle sailing of a 10,800-TEU capacity service in December.

  • A 9,940 TEU service into Prince Rupert

  • A 5,580 TEU service into Vancouver


Tyler Durden

Fri, 09/27/2019 – 13:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2lGq1cF Tyler Durden

The Decentralized Web Is Coming

Google handles 88 percent of search traffic in the United States. Facebook has more than 2.4 billion active monthly users worldwide. Half of all U.S. online retail is projected to go through Amazon by 2021.

Both Democrats and Republicans have called for breaking up the tech giants, holding them legally liable for what others say on their platforms, and imposing new regulations that would stop them from misusing their customers’ personal information. But there’s also a growing movement, which includes some of the web’s early pioneers, to come up with technological ways to counter Facebook, Amazon, Twitter, and Google.

The goal is to build a better, more decentralized web.

“There are so many different possible ways of decentralizing the internet, and what’s lacking is the legal right to interoperate and the legal support to stop dirty tricks from preventing you from exercising that legal right,” says Cory Doctorow, a science fiction author and tech journalist who’s been thinking and writing about the web since Tim Berners-Lee introduced it to the public in the early 1990s.

Berners-Lee and other web pioneers intended for their creation to be decentralized and open-source. “The cyber-utopian view was not merely that seizing the means of information would make you free, but that failing to do so would put you in perpetual chains,” says Doctorow.

There are many theories about why the web became centralized. Doctorow largely blames the abuse of intellectual property law to defeat the decentralized “free software” movement championed by the programmer and activist Richard Stallman. Stallman helped create the popular open-source operating system Linux after freely modifying Unix, Bell Labs’ proprietary system.

But the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, passed in 1998, became an impediment to the open and permissionless approach to software development. The law was intended to prevent duplication of copryrighted works and was eventually applied to all software. Breaking “digital locks” to learn from, interact with, and improve upon the code of dominant web platforms became a federal crime. It’s standard practice for today’s tech companies to shield their proprietary code from would-be competitors by wielding the power of an increasingly expansive intellectual property regime.

“And so this thicket of exclusive rights around products that can be invoked to prevent new entrants for making add-ons, compatible products, or even competing products is a really important change in the landscape,” says Doctorow. “One that has made it very hard for new entrants to emerge and I think is in large part responsible for the concentration in the industry.”

Despite these legal and political challenges, innovators are attempting to create new decentralized ecosystems of web services.

Mitra Ardon is the head of decentralization at the Internet Archive, a digital repository of more than 50 petabytes of images, movies, and texts—including more than 330 billion webpages.

“The archive’s mission is to make all of mankind’s knowledge available online forever to everyone for free, which is a pretty big vision, right?” says Ardon.

He says the history of the web is too important to be held in custody by a single organization. So he’s overseeing a plan to migrate the Internet Archive’s more than 50 million gigabytes of data to a distributed network maintained by users.

A beta version of this peer-to-peer network is already operating and publicly accessible.

“I think what [a more decentralized web] would look like is a world where servers were everywhere, that your internet router at home would also be a server,” says Ardon.

Doctorow doesn’t think the decentralized web can take off without government intervention. He agrees with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Josh Hawley (R–Mo.) that the Federal Trade Commission should break up the tech giants.

“[The tech giants] got giant doing what we used to ban and that we stopped banning right when the tech industry started,” says Doctorow, who argues that Ronald Reagan and the federal courts undermined the original intent of the Sherman Antitrust Act during the 1980s using the legal theories of former federal judge Robert Bork:

Every president since Reagan has expanded Bork’s doctrine, allowing for even more aggressive market concentration, producing a country (and a world) where a handful of firms dominate virtually every industry, from telcoms to talent agencieswrestling to eyewear, to Big Tech

But in the October 2019 issue of Reason magazine, economist Thomas Hazlett argues that sweeping antitrust action has often entrenched existing players, largely due to the phenomenon of regulatory capture:

The late Nobel laureate George Stigler started as a “bust ’em up” guy: In 1952 he wrote an article in Fortune stating the “case against Big Business” and calling for the dissolution of General Motors. But through observation and analysis, Stigler’s view progressed until he arrived at an antitrust policy that gave dynamic forces their due and put consumer interests at the center. He came to see government institutions as imperfect, and he posited in a 1971 paper the theory of “regulatory capture,” whereby “regulation is acquired by the industry and is designed and operated primarily for its benefit.”

Arguments about antitrust aside, the technological tools needed to bring about a more decentralized web may already exist, though they’re not yet widely implemented.

“Web 3.0 has this wonderful set of trust baked into the Internet itself,” says Molly Mackinlay, a former Google programmer and a current project lead of the InterPlanetary File System (IPFS), a communications protocol that’s meant to replace the hypertext transfer protocol (HTTP) that most of us use to access the web now. While HTTP connects your computer to a particular server, IPFS scours the network for a piece of content, which gets assigned a unique ID marker and connects you to whomever happens to be hosting it.

Mackinlay wants a decentralized web that relies less on centralized servers and more on distributed storage networks—such as Filecoin, a cryptographic token that rewards users for storing data. This, she says, would be an effective way to sidestep the dangers of censorship and overregulation.

“That’s a better, safer, more resilient world, which doesn’t end up…susceptible to authoritarian manipulation and control,” says Mackinlay.

Produced by Zach Weissmueller. Camera by Alexis Garcia, John Osterhoudt, and Weissmueller. Opening graphic by Lex Villena. Additional graphics by Meredith Bragg.

Photo credits: Preston Ehrler/ZUMA Press/Newscom, Stefani Reynolds/CNP/Polaris/Newscom, ITU Pictures (under CC Attribution 2.0 License), Jeremy Hogan/Polaris/Newscom. 

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Nasdaq, Small Caps Plunge Through Key Technical Levels

Nasdaq, Small Caps Plunge Through Key Technical Levels

A ‘bad’ trade headline and suddenly Nasdaq and Small Caps are tumbling below their 50- and 100-day moving averages.

S&P and The Dow have some rom to run yet…

We are going to need a ‘good’ trade headline stat!


Tyler Durden

Fri, 09/27/2019 – 13:01

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2ndwGeK Tyler Durden

Google Rolls Out “Orwellian Nightmare” Technology To Spy On You In Your Home

Google Rolls Out “Orwellian Nightmare” Technology To Spy On You In Your Home

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Google’s new Nest Hub Max is a smart display unit that comes equipped with a 6.5-megapixel facial recognition camera that identifies you and monitors all your actions – inside your own home.

And the Orwellian icing on the cake is that it is not equipped with a physical shutter to forcibly prevent it from monitoring what’s happening in your home.

It’s the first smart home product from Google to include a camera so you can make video calls. It looks like a tablet propped up on its side, and it works similarly to smart speakers, such as Amazon Echo. …

The Nest Hub Max is essentially a smart speaker that lets you control connected smart home devices, and comes with a display and camera.

It’s the first smart home product from Google to include a camera so you can make video calls. It looks like a tablet propped up on its side, and it works similarly to smart speakers, such as Amazon Echo. …

The Nest Hub Max is essentially a smart speaker that lets you control connected smart home devices, and comes with a display and camera.

It’s not too dissimilar from the Google Home Hub, which Google just rebranded as Nest Hub. The new device has a 10-inch HD screen. It looks like a tablet in landscape orientation that’s propped up on a base. The base contains a speaker. At the top of the device are a camera and microphones. The Daily Dot

The device allows you to check in on what’s happening in your home when you’re out, and because of its facial recognition capabilities, will detect when you enter the room and provide personalized information to you, such as your day’s appointments, the weather forecast, and so on, reported Natural News.  The camera also enables two-way video calls over Google Duo and comes loaded with the Google Assistant (which has been the focus of a huge number of privacy issues). While all these functions might sound super convenient and fun, the privacy issues raised by the camera and audio functionality cannot be overlooked.

There are concerns about Google’s face recognition.  The company has struggled to maintain a good reputation. They have proven to be biased toward Communism and authoritarian ideals, big government control over the population, and have even censored those who reject the force and violence inherent in those ideas. Today the face features are only accessible by Google, but what happens when it begins letting other apps and services access your face and you are one of those anti-government dissenters?

Clearly, there are real reasons to be concerned about Google’s latest tech offering, and those who wish to protect their online privacy might do better to steer well clear of it.


Tyler Durden

Fri, 09/27/2019 – 12:56

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2naUCPT Tyler Durden

Prosecution for Rifle-UC-Rifle Gun Control Sticker

The sticker appears to be a version of this:

But of course this is constitutionally protected, given the Court’s decision in Cohen v. California (1971) that a jacket bearing the words “Fuck the Draft” was constitutionally protected. Indeed, it’s not even barred by the relevant Tennessee statute (Tenn. Code § 55-8-187), which reads,

To avoid distracting other drivers and thereby reduce the likelihood of accidents arising from lack of attention or concentration, the display of obscene and patently offensive movies, bumper stickers, window signs or other markings on or in a motor vehicle that are visible to other drivers is prohibited and display of such materials shall subject the owner of the vehicle on which they are displayed, upon conviction, to a fine of not less than two dollars ($2.00) nor more than fifty dollars ($50.00). “Obscene” or “patently offensive” has the meaning specified in § 39-17-901 [which restates the First Amendment test for obscenity, and defines “patently offensive” as “that which goes substantially beyond customary limits of candor in describing or representing such matters,” apparently referring to sexual matters.

The word “fuck” in this context doesn’t fall within the First Amendment obscenity test, as the Court recognized in Cohen:

This is not … an obscenity case. Whatever else may be necessary to give rise to the States’ broader power to prohibit obscene expression, such expression must be, in some significant way, erotic. It cannot plausibly be maintained that this vulgar allusion to the Selective Service System would conjure up such psychic stimulation in anyone likely to be confronted with Cohen’s crudely defaced jacket.

The same logic applies here; indeed, the Tennessee Attorney General’s office has acknowledged (Tenn. Op. Atty. Gen. No. 88-44) that

The [statute] will not reach bumper stickers that are in extremely poor taste but are not obscene [under the Supreme Court’s obscenity precedents]. For example, bumper stickers such as “s..t happens,” although unquestionably in poor taste, do not meet the constitutional or statutory standards for obscenity because they do not appeal to the purient interest. Consequently, they cannot be banned as obscene.

See also Cunningham v. State (Ga. 1991) (“Shit Happens” bumper sticker constitutionally protected).

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American Woman Tells Hongkongers ‘Safety Is More Important Than Freedom’

Footage went viral this week of a woman, apparently from the United States, telling off some Hong Kong protesters for desecrating their city with protest posters and graffiti.

“Is this OK? Is this respectful?” she asks, pointedly gesturing to a defaced nearby wall, before trailing off with a tone-deaf trump card, “If my mother saw me write this…”

The woman then questions Hongkongers about the aims of their protests, which are now in their 16th week. The protests started over an extradition bill that would have allowed suspected criminals to be sent to mainland China, but they have expanded to embrace broader demands for more liberty and self-government.

Hong Kong is technically part of China, but the city’s citizens are allowed far more freedom—including freedom of the press and the right to elect some of their legislators—under the “one country, two systems” policy, which will be sunsetted in 2047. Many Hongkongers fear being placed under authoritarian Chinese rule, knowing that on the mainland censorship is the norm, the Communist Party must be appeased at every twist and turn, and political opponents get disappeared (often before showing up on state-run TV with a tearful coerced confession or histrionic display of remorse).

“Find me one case where violence led to a solution,” the woman in the video challenges the Hongkongers. “What a waste of time for everybody,” she says of the demonstrations. In fact, the protests have had at least one significant, if tentative, success: Hong Kong’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, conceded one of the movement’s five demands three weeks ago by withdrawing the bill that set off the protests.

“You guys value freedom more than safety. Do you agree? I think safety is more important than freedom,” the American says. “If you have a safe environment, you can communicate.”

But it’s freedom of speech that lets people be free of legal retribution for the words they say. It’s freedom of speech that allows people wide latitude in how they express themselves, and where, and to whom. A “safety” enforced and ensured by an authoritarian police force is a fickle promise if you piss off the people in charge, and it doesn’t necessarily mean safety for everyone. Sometimes one person’s feeling of safety comes at the expense of other people’s freedoms. Hongkongers, attempting to keep Beijing’s influence at bay, are keenly aware of this.

“China’s thinking is safety is more important than freedom,” the woman claims, before beginning to chip away at posters with her nail. “We shouldn’t do this! This is my city, too!”

At one point she speaks something that sounds like Cantonese. So she could be an expat living in Hong Kong, concerned about the degree to which the city’s been torn apart by civil unrest. But her safetysplaining makes it clear that she either doesn’t understand or just doesn’t care about how high the stakes are. One gets the impression that she hasn’t had her freedom seized for the sake of someone else’s safety.

Under full Chinese rule, Hongkongers will get neither freedom nor safety. An authoritarian regime that forces subservience to the party cannot be trusted to provide either one.

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Short Circuit Podcast on the First Amendment and Student Newspaper Funding,

I much enjoyed participating in this podcast, which was taped in front of a student audience Wednesday here at UCLA; here is IJ’s summary of the three cases my UCLA colleague Richard Re, Robert Everett Johnson (Jones Day), and I discussed:

After a student newspaper at the University of California, San Diego published a piece satirizing safe spaces and trigger warning, the student newspaper pulled funding for all print media. A First Amendment violation? And…

When doling out federal grant money for community policing efforts, the DOJ gives preference to local departments that promise to cooperate with federal immigration efforts. Which, says Los Angeles, would actually undermine community trust in police. Did the DOJ exceed the powers delegated to it by Congress? And …

Religious organizations need not comply with some aspects of the Americans with Disabilities Act. But does the so-called “ministerial exception” extend to a Catholic school that fired a fifth grade teacher who needed time off for chemotherapy?

 

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Prosecution for Rifle-UC-Rifle Gun Control Sticker

The sticker appears to be a version of this:

But of course this is constitutionally protected, given the Court’s decision in Cohen v. California (1971) that a jacket bearing the words “Fuck the Draft” was constitutionally protected. Indeed, it’s not even barred by the relevant Tennessee statute (Tenn. Code § 55-8-187), which reads,

To avoid distracting other drivers and thereby reduce the likelihood of accidents arising from lack of attention or concentration, the display of obscene and patently offensive movies, bumper stickers, window signs or other markings on or in a motor vehicle that are visible to other drivers is prohibited and display of such materials shall subject the owner of the vehicle on which they are displayed, upon conviction, to a fine of not less than two dollars ($2.00) nor more than fifty dollars ($50.00). “Obscene” or “patently offensive” has the meaning specified in § 39-17-901 [which restates the First Amendment test for obscenity, and defines “patently offensive” as “that which goes substantially beyond customary limits of candor in describing or representing such matters,” apparently referring to sexual matters.

The word “fuck” in this context doesn’t fall within the First Amendment obscenity test, as the Court recognized in Cohen:

This is not … an obscenity case. Whatever else may be necessary to give rise to the States’ broader power to prohibit obscene expression, such expression must be, in some significant way, erotic. It cannot plausibly be maintained that this vulgar allusion to the Selective Service System would conjure up such psychic stimulation in anyone likely to be confronted with Cohen’s crudely defaced jacket.

The same logic applies here; indeed, the Tennessee Attorney General’s office has acknowledged (Tenn. Op. Atty. Gen. No. 88-44) that

The [statute] will not reach bumper stickers that are in extremely poor taste but are not obscene [under the Supreme Court’s obscenity precedents]. For example, bumper stickers such as “s..t happens,” although unquestionably in poor taste, do not meet the constitutional or statutory standards for obscenity because they do not appeal to the purient interest. Consequently, they cannot be banned as obscene.

See also Cunningham v. State (Ga. 1991) (“Shit Happens” bumper sticker constitutionally protected).

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