WeWork Bonds Plunge As Company Officially Pulls IPO Filing

WeWork Bonds Plunge As Company Officially Pulls IPO Filing

From WeWork Co-CEOs:

“We have decided to postpone our IPO to focus on our core business, the fundamentals of which remain strong.”

We suggest something about the “core” is anything but “remaining strong”…

 

And the reaction was swift with bond prices tumbling to record lows (and the cost of funding for the real estate middle man to record highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

 

 


Tyler Durden

Mon, 09/30/2019 – 10:47

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2owy90f Tyler Durden

There Goes The Second Tech Bubble: 2019 Set To Be The Worst Year For IPOs In History

There Goes The Second Tech Bubble: 2019 Set To Be The Worst Year For IPOs In History

Much has been said about the devastating impact that WeWork’s catastrophic failed IPO has had on capital market sentiment, and one needs look no further than the performance of the latest dismal IPO attempt, that of glorified stationary bike with an iPad superglued to it, Peloton, also known as WeBike, to see how profound the investor carnage has been.

Yet while we discussed extensively the post-WeWork pain spreading across the IPO world – as markets are finally “emerging from a psychotic break with reality” in Scott Galloway’s inimitable words – in “Buyer Beware: Peloton IPO Crash Tells Us The Global IPO Market Is Going Bust“, Goldman has what may be the definitive verdict on just how bad for IPOs 2019 is shaping up to be.

As the following chart shows from Goldman’s David Kostin, the median IPO in 2019 is now drastically underperforming the Russell 3000 relative to history; in fact, the roughly 3% underperformance is the worst on record, and surpasses the negative returns observed at the peak of the financial crisis in 2009 and in the aftermath of the bursting of the first dot com bubble.

Tangentially related to this, Saxo Bank’s Peter Garnry writes that the second largest US industry group, Software & Services, is now valued in the 99% percentile on EV/EBITDA; “not a good recipe for future returns.” As Garnry notes, “we often just talk about valuations as something abstract but one has to realize that EV/EBITDA just above 20x means an implied return expectation by investors of around 4.8%”, which prompts him to ask “is that really a fair hurdle rate to expect for your capital given where we are in the business cycle? Our view is that valuations on software companies have reached unsustainable levels given the outlook and the risk-reward ratio is just terrible.”

So is the party finally over, and did the messianic, and now former, WeWork CEO, Adam Neumann, burst the biggest asset bubble of all time? For now the answer is unclear, but as Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson wrote on Sunday, the recent failure of We Company to go public is reminiscent of past corporate events marking important tops in powerful secular trends:

  • United Airlines’ failed LBO in October 1989, which effectively ended the high yield/LBO craze of the 1980s.
  • The AOL/TWX merger in January 2000, bringing the Dotcom bubble to a close.
  • JPM’s take-under of Bear Stearns in March 2008, which signaled the end of the financial excesses of the 2000s.

“So if this is THE event, what are we ending”, Wilson asked, and answered: 

In my view, the days of endless capital for unprofitable businesses. It was one heck of a run, but paying extraordinary valuations for anything is a bad idea, particularly for businesses that may never generate a positive stream of cash flows. If you ask me, that’s just common sense and it’s a good thing if the markets go back to a more disciplined mindset. The problem is that some stocks in the public markets still need to fall back to earth, and they reside in the secular growth category.

He’s right, of course, but with the fate of the US presidency and the Fed now both dependent on the market not falling, expect one hell of a fight before it all follows WeWork into collapsing into the dust of post-psychotic reality.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 09/30/2019 – 10:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2nQVNV0 Tyler Durden

The World Needs Innovators, Not Lectures From Teens, to Solve Climate Change

Every global climate summit to date has featured lots of tough talk but little action. The United Nations confab in New York that just wrapped up is no different. Nor will anything change in the future unless climate change warriors stop insisting that the world go on an energy diet—and start offering cheaper and cleaner energy options that don’t require a lifestyle where transcontinental travel means a boat like the one that the 16-year-old Greta Thunberg took from Sweden to rebuke the world’s leaders.

Human-caused global warming is real, but activists have to get real too. They think that they can spur action by simply exaggerating the urgency of climate change. Thunberg insisted that if drastic action to cut emissions isn’t taken now, basically the planet as we know it will cease to exist. Likewise, Green New Dealers like Rep. Alexander Ocasio-Cortez (D–N.Y.) have been saying that the planet has an “expiration date.”

But anyone who has watched Game of Thrones knows that dialing up apocalypse talk alone can’t overcome the collective action problem preventing action on climate change. In that drama, Queen Cersei chooses to free-ride rather than join other kingdoms in fighting the forces of Armageddon.

Climate change activists are confronting the same problem—and the more they exaggerate the sacrifices required, the more they’ll exacerbate it.

The Sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that preserving the planet as we know it will require keeping the global mean surface temperature at no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the average temperature in the 19th century before the industrial revolution. This is a more stringent target than that set during the 2015 Paris Accords whose goal was to hold the temperature increase to 2 degrees Centigrade.

Allowing emissions to rise more than that would mean planetary change and disruptions, to be sure. For example, coral reefs would be damaged, storms may be worse, and Arctic ice may melt in summers. But it is not clear that this will lead to planetary catastrophe by making cyclones more fierce or droughts more severe, causing mass death. Climate warriors, however, refuse to make such distinctions.

In order to hold the temperature to the 1.5 degrees threshold, the IPCC calculated that the world would have to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 40 to 50 percent by 2030 and completely by 2050. This will mean a total transition from fossil fuels to renewables like wind and solar by 2050, a goal that Ocasio-Cortez has wholeheartedly embraced for the United States.

What would the price tag for this be?

As per the IPCC’s own calculations, around $2.4 trillion annually between 2016 and 2035 in 2010 dollars—or about 2.5 percent of the global GDP. To understand just how daunting that is, consider that the total energy investments in the world amount to only around $1.7 trillion right now—which means that the world is being asked to make an additional $45 trillion in investments over 19 years to generate the same amount of energy and improve energy efficiency. The higher costs will mean scaling back First World lifestyles, of course. But they will also mean forcing Third World countries, where many people don’t even have electricity, to stay stuck in poverty for many more decades to help out generations a hundred years from now.

This may be a good long-term investment but the upfront costs—both monetary and human—are formidable which makes the politics of climate change intractable. That’s why the New York conference didn’t go anywhere. The U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres asked countries to up the commitments they’d made four years ago in Paris. Only 65 countries obliged. The biggest polluters just shrugged.

America didn’t even request a speaking slot at the event because that would have meant laying out concrete plans for actual cuts. The Australian prime minister was in town but didn’t bother showing up. China failed to announce new targets and renewed its calls that developed countries go first—no doubt because it doesn’t want to put an anchor around its already limping economy. Likewise, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump’s new best friend, outlined more investments in renewables but remains committed to coal projects for the foreseeable future. And the European Union, historically a leader in pushing for emission cuts, didn’t signal any intention to reach carbon neutrality by 2050.

Climate activists are blaming much of this on Trump’s Paris pullout. But that’s head-in-the-sand evasion because even if Trump were the Joan of Arc of climate change, he couldn’t ensure results. America enthusiastically led the way for the 1997 Kyoto Treaty that convinced many countries to pledge cuts, but almost none delivered before President George Bush bailed. And the reason is those that dutifully made the cuts would end up harming their economy for no gain if others didn’t follow through. So it was more expedient to promise and leave.

Climate activists are now counting on woke capital to bring these countries to heel by withholding investments from polluting nations. And several asset fund managers did indeed commit to a net-zero emissions portfolio by 2050. But the investor community as a whole is going to face the same collective action problem that the international community is confronting; namely, that if one of them foregoes lucrative investments, there will be just that much more temptation for others.

The better way might be offering clean fuel options that are so attractive that consumers simply can’t turn them down. Phone users did not switch from landlines to cell phones because they were forced to do so. They did so automatically and voluntarily because the new technology offered massive advantages relative to the costs that the old one didn’t.

Something equivalent needs to happen on the energy front to make fossil fuels obsolete. The most promising alternative on the horizon so far isn’t renewables, but nuclear. Yet environmentalists are mostly opposed to it. This was reasonable when nuclear’s upfront capital costs—namely to build layers of safety in reactors—were astronomical and options to safely dispose of spent radioactive fuel weren’t great. But the new generation of nuclear reactors is overcoming at least some of these problems. For example, Bill Gate’s Terrapower, a traveling wave reactor, is experimenting with using depleted uranium, a waste product leftover from conventional reactors.

The most revolutionary fuels are ones that no one can even imagine yet. But they will only materialize if today’s young environmental activists don’t skip school to spend two weeks boating across the ocean to attend a summit. Rather than lecturing world leaders, they’d help more if they stayed in class, listened, and learned in order to become future innovators.

A version of this column appeared in The Week.

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The World Needs Innovators, Not Lectures From Teens, to Solve Climate Change

Every global climate summit to date has featured lots of tough talk but little action. The United Nations confab in New York that just wrapped up is no different. Nor will anything change in the future unless climate change warriors stop insisting that the world go on an energy diet—and start offering cheaper and cleaner energy options that don’t require a lifestyle where transcontinental travel means a boat like the one that the 16-year-old Greta Thunberg took from Sweden to rebuke the world’s leaders.

Human-caused global warming is real, but activists have to get real too. They think that they can spur action by simply exaggerating the urgency of climate change. Thunberg insisted that if drastic action to cut emissions isn’t taken now, basically the planet as we know it will cease to exist. Likewise, Green New Dealers like Rep. Alexander Ocasio-Cortez (D–N.Y.) have been saying that the planet has an “expiration date.”

But anyone who has watched Game of Thrones knows that dialing up apocalypse talk alone can’t overcome the collective action problem preventing action on climate change. In that drama, Queen Cersei chooses to free-ride rather than join other kingdoms in fighting the forces of Armageddon.

Climate change activists are confronting the same problem—and the more they exaggerate the sacrifices required, the more they’ll exacerbate it.

The Sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that preserving the planet as we know it will require keeping the global mean surface temperature at no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the average temperature in the 19th century before the industrial revolution. This is a more stringent target than that set during the 2015 Paris Accords whose goal was to hold the temperature increase to 2 degrees Centigrade.

Allowing emissions to rise more than that would mean planetary change and disruptions, to be sure. For example, coral reefs would be damaged, storms may be worse, and Arctic ice may melt in summers. But it is not clear that this will lead to planetary catastrophe by making cyclones more fierce or droughts more severe, causing mass death. Climate warriors, however, refuse to make such distinctions.

In order to hold the temperature to the 1.5 degrees threshold, the IPCC calculated that the world would have to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 40 to 50 percent by 2030 and completely by 2050. This will mean a total transition from fossil fuels to renewables like wind and solar by 2050, a goal that Ocasio-Cortez has wholeheartedly embraced for the United States.

What would the price tag for this be?

As per the IPCC’s own calculations, around $2.4 trillion annually between 2016 and 2035 in 2010 dollars—or about 2.5 percent of the global GDP. To understand just how daunting that is, consider that the total energy investments in the world amount to only around $1.7 trillion right now—which means that the world is being asked to make an additional $45 trillion in investments over 19 years to generate the same amount of energy and improve energy efficiency. The higher costs will mean scaling back First World lifestyles, of course. But they will also mean forcing Third World countries, where many people don’t even have electricity, to stay stuck in poverty for many more decades to help out generations a hundred years from now.

This may be a good long-term investment but the upfront costs—both monetary and human—are formidable which makes the politics of climate change intractable. That’s why the New York conference didn’t go anywhere. The U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres asked countries to up the commitments they’d made four years ago in Paris. Only 65 countries obliged. The biggest polluters just shrugged.

America didn’t even request a speaking slot at the event because that would have meant laying out concrete plans for actual cuts. The Australian prime minister was in town but didn’t bother showing up. China failed to announce new targets and renewed its calls that developed countries go first—no doubt because it doesn’t want to put an anchor around its already limping economy. Likewise, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump’s new best friend, outlined more investments in renewables but remains committed to coal projects for the foreseeable future. And the European Union, historically a leader in pushing for emission cuts, didn’t signal any intention to reach carbon neutrality by 2050.

Climate activists are blaming much of this on Trump’s Paris pullout. But that’s head-in-the-sand evasion because even if Trump were the Joan of Arc of climate change, he couldn’t ensure results. America enthusiastically led the way for the 1997 Kyoto Treaty that convinced many countries to pledge cuts, but almost none delivered before President George Bush bailed. And the reason is those that dutifully made the cuts would end up harming their economy for no gain if others didn’t follow through. So it was more expedient to promise and leave.

Climate activists are now counting on woke capital to bring these countries to heel by withholding investments from polluting nations. And several asset fund managers did indeed commit to a net-zero emissions portfolio by 2050. But the investor community as a whole is going to face the same collective action problem that the international community is confronting; namely, that if one of them foregoes lucrative investments, there will be just that much more temptation for others.

The better way might be offering clean fuel options that are so attractive that consumers simply can’t turn them down. Phone users did not switch from landlines to cell phones because they were forced to do so. They did so automatically and voluntarily because the new technology offered massive advantages relative to the costs that the old one didn’t.

Something equivalent needs to happen on the energy front to make fossil fuels obsolete. The most promising alternative on the horizon so far isn’t renewables, but nuclear. Yet environmentalists are mostly opposed to it. This was reasonable when nuclear’s upfront capital costs—namely to build layers of safety in reactors—were astronomical and options to safely dispose of spent radioactive fuel weren’t great. But the new generation of nuclear reactors is overcoming at least some of these problems. For example, Bill Gate’s Terrapower, a traveling wave reactor, is experimenting with using depleted uranium, a waste product leftover from conventional reactors.

The most revolutionary fuels are ones that no one can even imagine yet. But they will only materialize if today’s young environmental activists don’t skip school to spend two weeks boating across the ocean to attend a summit. Rather than lecturing world leaders, they’d help more if they stayed in class, listened, and learned in order to become future innovators.

A version of this column appeared in The Week.

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Platts: 4 Commodity Charts To Watch This Week

Platts: 4 Commodity Charts To Watch This Week

Via S&P Global Platt’s ‘The Barrel’ blog,

Asian demand for light crude oil grades and record US gas exports to Mexico are in the sights of S&P Global Platts editors this week. Plus, European gas price trends and the prospects for German power plant fuel switching.

1. Asian crude buying helps widen spread between light and heavy grades

What’s happening? Asia was quick to respond to the growing uncertainty over Arab Light and Arab Extra Light crude supplies following the September 14 attacks on core Saudi oil facilities, with Southeast Asian refiners among the first group of buyers to secure alternative light oil cargoes from the spot market. The apparent shortage in supply of light Saudi crude to Asian refiners has boosted demand for distillate-rich grades in the global spot market. As a result, the outright price spread between Murban crude and Iraq’s heavy sour Basrah Heavy staged a sharp rebound this week, settling at $4.60/b Friday, Platts data showed, having touched a record low of $2.35/b on August 19.

What’s next? The rise in Asian buying activity potentially sets the tone for light/heavy sour crude price spreads to widen in the short run – how long exactly depends on how fast Aramco can fully restore production from the damage. In addition, the spread between the official selling price of Arab Extra Light and Arab Heavy could widen in the coming months if Chinese end-users continue to face a shortage of lighter-end Saudi term crude supply, according to multiple refinery and trade sources surveyed by Platts.

2. US exports record gas volumes to Mexico as pipeline availability rises

What’s happening? US natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico climbed to a record high last week propelled by the recent addition of new transmission capacity on the 2.6 Bcf/d Sur de Texas-Tuxpan marine pipeline. However, the record 6 Bcf/d export figure came not from an increase in exports on Sur de Texas, but rather from a recovery in transmission volumes on other southbound pipelines. The recent growth in US export volumes to Mexico has bolstered South Texas gas prices and could be a contributing factor behind the recent rise in cash prices at the US benchmark Henry Hub. In the week since the start of commercial service on the pipeline, spot market prices were up as much as 20 cents/MMBtu compared to prior 30-day averages.

What’s next? With recent maintenance- and commissioning-related declines on the NET Mexico and Nueva Era pipelines coming to an end, US exports to Mexico could remain around 5.8 Bcf/d to 6 Bcf/d or potentially move even higher in the days and weeks ahead. As export volumes continue to grow, gas prices in South Texas and at the Henry Hub could be expected to remain around current levels or possibly gain additional momentum.

3. Full stocks, LNG outlook weigh on European gas curve

What’s happening? European prompt gas prices remain at historically low levels of around just Eur10/MWh given a well-supplied market, with storage facilities filled to almost 100% capacity and LNG expected to come to Europe in ever bigger quantities through the fourth quarter.

What’s next? Winter 19 prices are also trending downward – though they are still trading at a healthy premium to prompt prices – and are now at parity with prices for Summer 20. A mild start to winter in Europe, forecast last week by The Weather Company, could see the contract move closer to the prompt and bring down Summer 20 with it if storages remain well stocked.

4. German lignite, coal plant profitability poised to recover this winter

What’s happening? Cheap gas and rising CO2 prices have pushed German coal- and lignite-fired power generation down the merit order this summer. Year to date coal/lignite generation is down 26%, while that for gas-fired generation is up 67%. Combined conventional generation, meanwhile, is down 13% on year as wind and solar continue to grow.

What’s next? The thermal merit order is due to switch into the fourth quarter of 2019 and Q1 2020, with German lignite plant firmly back in the money, and hard coal plant increasingly so as the quarter matures. Gas is not as cheap on the curve as the market prices in a breakdown in Russia-Ukraine gas contract talks, as well as winter heating demand.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 09/30/2019 – 10:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2n5gr3y Tyler Durden

Maybe the Media Mishandled the New Brett Kavanaugh Book Because It’s Mostly a Dud

Two weeks have elapsed since New York Times writers Robin Pogrebin and Kate Kelly reported on a fresh accusation of sexual misconduct against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh from his time at Yale University.

The information was contained in an excerpt from their newly released book, The Education of Brett Kavanaugh: An Investigation. Its rollout has produced one media failure after another, which is probably at least partly the fault of the authors. The book itself is inconsequential and likely to disappoint all those seeking some new, key insight into the man who joined the Supreme Court last year.

The book excerpt first appeared in the New York Times’ Sunday Review—the opinion section. Top editors evidently did not think the new information about a previously unreported sexual misconduct allegation warranted coverage on the news side of the paper, “let alone a big one-page treatment,” according to Vanity Fair.

Almost immediately, the news side’s judgment rang true—to borrow a phrase Pogrebin and Kelly make liberal use of in their book—thanks to the Sunday Review’s clumsy handling of the excerpt. The version that appeared in the paper omitted a key detail about the new accusation: Though a supposed witness of the misconduct, Democratic lawyer Max Stier, had allegedly seen Kavanaugh’s friends take hold of his penis and push it toward a woman at a Yale dormitory party in the 1980s, the victim herself told friends she did not remember the encounter. Pogrebin and Kelly concede this in the book, but the Times’ version left out the important clarification, prompting much-deserved criticism from Kavanaugh defenders and right-leaning media folks.

But even though the Stier scoop left much to be desired, it’s easy to see why Pogrebrin and Kelly selected it for prominent promotion: There just isn’t much else of interest in their book. Unfortunately, The Education of Brett Kavanaugh: An Investigation tells readers very little that they didn’t already know about President Donald Trump’s second Supreme Court appointee. Sparse insights into Kavanaugh’s time at Mater Dei School, Georgetown Preparatory School, and Yale University do little to justify the book’s ambitious title. For all the effort, Education is mostly a tedious retelling of last September’s bitter confirmation hearings.

To their credit, Kelly and Pogrebin do approach their subject with a refreshing lack of bias, and are often fair to him. They do not turn Kavanaugh into a monster, and they flatly reject several of the more sensational allegations against him—including those made by controversial celebrity attorney Michael Avenatti through his unreliable client, Julie Swetnick. The book itself generally avoids making unfounded allegations, and the significant amount of reporting is not to be discounted.

Even so, the book’s conclusion makes clear that Pogrebin and Kelly come down right where you would expect.

“As people, our gut reaction was that the allegations of Ford and Ramirez from the past rang true,” they write. “As reporters, we uncovered nothing to suggest that Kavanaugh has mistreated women in the years since. Ultimately, we combined our notebooks with our common sense and came to believe an utterly human narrative: that Ford and Ramirez were mistreated by Kavanaugh as a teenager, and that Kavanaugh over the next thirty-five years became a better person. We come to this complicated, seemingly contradictory, and perhaps unsatisfying conclusion based on the facts as we found them.”

These facts, though, are essentially the same ones reported exhaustively in major media outlets last year, when every journalist worth his or her salt made attempts to determine the location of the house where Christine Blasey Ford was allegedly assaulted by Kavanaugh and his friend, Mark Judge. Aside from Ford, everyone allegedly present for the incident in question—Kavanaugh, Judge, friend P.J. Smyth, and notably, Leland Keyser, a close female friend of Ford’s—denies any memory of it having occurred. Maybe they are wrong or lying. But neither Kavanaugh skeptics nor Kavanaugh defenders nor even Kavanaugh undecideds will change their minds based on the information in Education. We’ve heard most of it before.

Pogrebin and Kelly do break some new ground in recounting the tales of Kavanaugh’s youth, though again—despite the title—the future justice’s teenage years constitute significantly less than half of the book. Here, mundane aspects of adolescence are treated like revelations. Take how the authors describe the environment at Georgetown Prep:

Students could be cruel and combative, and competitive. Tensions sometimes became inflamed on the weekends because of excessive drinking. Many of the Prep boys were also ill-equipped for socializing with girls. An environment with limited sex education, no female students, and just a handful of female educators, some alumni say, became a breeding ground in the early 1980s for a casual brand of misogyny.

Among Prep’s alpha males, there was a sense of entitlement—over girls, younger students, smaller boys, public school graduates, and non-athletes. A military-style social hierarchy was immediately evident to freshmen. First-years were treated like plebes, to be picked on and pushed around by the upperclassmen, some of whom had suffered the same hazing rituals. The more diminutive students were sometimes deposited into campus trash cans or stuffed into lockers. The bigger boys and those who had standing because of older brothers or ties to Mater Dei were inoculated.

The above could be a description of any boys high school in the U.S., but Pogrebin and Kelly write as if Kavanaugh was the product of some uniquely violent, misogynistic culture. In reality, it appears from their own reporting that he had one of the most normal upbringings imaginable, and showed completely typical interest in sports, drinking, girls (though he was awkward around them), and male camaraderie. It quickly becomes clear that this information is only of interest because the authors implicitly treat it as circumstantial evidence that Ford’s account should be considered credible.

Pogrebin and Kelly are also inclined to condemn Kavanaugh for his hostile and combative temperament during the Senate Judiciary Committee’s questioning relating to the Ford allegation. In fact, it is here that they engage in their most aggressive editorializing. They accuse Kavanaugh of “brazenly [violating] his very own principles about ‘proper demeanor'” when he thunderously denied the accusations and lashed out at Democrats for scrutinizing him. They exhaustively quote Democratic politicians and left-of-center media folks asserting that Kavanaugh’s aggressive temperament was itself disqualifying.

“Above and beyond the accusations of misdeeds, the charges of telling falsehoods, and the theme of heavy drinking sits another, more encompassing, dilemma: Kavanaugh’s temperament,” they write. “Despite superlative marks from the American Bar Association and many associates, Kavanaugh’s usual evenness was absent from the September 27 hearing.”

Far from being a “more encompassing dilemma” than potential sexual misconduct, Kavanaugh’s anger was completely understandable. It did not remotely constitute some betrayal of principle. Yes, judges should keep an even temperament and a civil tone in their role as impartial moderators, but Kavanaugh was not occupying the moderator role during the September 27 hearing: On the contrary, he was playing the part of the defendant.


Education is largely a dud, which helps explain why its authors have had to make mountains out of molehills. The Sunday Review’s mistake was soon compounded by a similar misunderstanding elsewhere in the media. When asked if they interviewed Kavanaugh for the book, Pogrebin and Kelly said they could not agree on the terms of the discussion. “He wanted us to say we hadn’t spoken to him,” Pogrebin explained.

That’s a rather sinister way of describing a common demand made by interviewees for anonymity—a promise that what they say will not be attributed to them, or will be used only for background purposes. It’s not exactly clear what the sticking point was, and if Kavanaugh demanded that exact phrasing as a condition of the interview, the authors were right to insist on something more technically accurate, along the lines of Kavanaugh declined to comment on the record. But it’s far from established that Kavanaugh did so: As The Washington Examiner‘s Becket Adams pointed out, the declined-to-comment language may have come from a Kavanaugh representative, and not the justice himself. We don’t know whether this representative worked for Kavanaugh personally or for the Supreme Court. In any case, HuffPost led with the maximally inflammatory headline: “NY Times Reporters Say Kavanaugh Asked Them to Lie in Exchange for an Interview.”

The book, of course, makes no mention whatsoever of such a lie being requested.

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CIA Whistleblower’s Attorney: ’60 Minutes’ Federal Protection Story Is Fake News

CIA Whistleblower’s Attorney: ’60 Minutes’ Federal Protection Story Is Fake News

An attorney for the CIA whistleblower at the heart of the Trump-Biden-Ukraine scandal said Sunday that CBS‘ “60 Minutes” had “completely misinterpreted” a letter to acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire, which the news outlet construed to mean the whistleblower was now under federal protection, according to Politico

On Sunday night, CBS wrote on Twitter: “‘60 Minutes’ has obtained a letter that indicates the government whistleblower who set off the impeachment inquiry of President Trump is under federal protection because they fear for their safety.

Contained within the misinterpreted letter is a statement that the attorneys “appreciate your office’s support thus far to activate appropriate resources to ensure (the whistleblower’s) safety,” which ’60 Minutes’ construed as federal protection. 

The attorneys noted that President Trump had exacerbated concerns over the whistleblower’s safety, after he said “I want to know who’s the person that gave the Whistleblower, who’s the person thatgave the Whistleblower the information, because that’s close to a spy. You know what we used to do in the old days when we were smart? Right? With spies and treason,right? We used to handle them a little differently than we do now.”

On Friday, President Trump blasted the whistleblower over Twitter, saying “Sounding more and more like the so-called Whistleblower isn’t a Whistleblower at all,” adding “In addition, all second hand information that proved to be so inaccurate that there may not have even been somebody else, a leaker or spy, feeding it to him or her? A partisan operative?”

And following a bombshell report by The Federalist which revealed that the intelligence community changed their requirement for first-hand whistleblower knowledge right as the CIA whistleblower’s second-hand report was filed, Trump tweeted “WOW, they got caught. End the Witch Hunt now!”

Trump addressed this again on Monday, tweeting in ALL CAPS: 

“WHO CHANGED THE LONG STANDING WHISTLEBLOWER RULES JUST BEFORE SUBMITTAL OF THE FAKE WHISTLEBLOWER REPORT?”


Tyler Durden

Mon, 09/30/2019 – 09:55

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2nV0eho Tyler Durden

Maybe the Media Mishandled the New Brett Kavanaugh Book Because It’s Mostly a Dud

Two weeks have elapsed since New York Times writers Robin Pogrebin and Kate Kelly reported on a fresh accusation of sexual misconduct against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh from his time at Yale University.

The information was contained in an excerpt from their newly released book, The Education of Brett Kavanaugh: An Investigation. Its rollout has produced one media failure after another, which is probably at least partly the fault of the authors. The book itself is inconsequential and likely to disappoint all those seeking some new, key insight into the man who joined the Supreme Court last year.

The book excerpt first appeared in the New York Times’ Sunday Review—the opinion section. Top editors evidently did not think the new information about a previously unreported sexual misconduct allegation warranted coverage on the news side of the paper, “let alone a big one-page treatment,” according to Vanity Fair.

Almost immediately, the news side’s judgment rang true—to borrow a phrase Pogrebin and Kelly make liberal use of in their book—thanks to the Sunday Review’s clumsy handling of the excerpt. The version that appeared in the paper omitted a key detail about the new accusation: Though a supposed witness of the misconduct, Democratic lawyer Max Stier, had allegedly seen Kavanaugh’s friends take hold of his penis and push it toward a woman at a Yale dormitory party in the 1980s, the victim herself told friends she did not remember the encounter. Pogrebin and Kelly concede this in the book, but the Times’ version left out the important clarification, prompting much-deserved criticism from Kavanaugh defenders and right-leaning media folks.

But even though the Stier scoop left much to be desired, it’s easy to see why Pogrebrin and Kelly selected it for prominent promotion: There just isn’t much else of interest in their book. Unfortunately, The Education of Brett Kavanaugh: An Investigation tells readers very little that they didn’t already know about President Donald Trump’s second Supreme Court appointee. Sparse insights into Kavanaugh’s time at Mater Dei School, Georgetown Preparatory School, and Yale University do little to justify the book’s ambitious title. For all the effort, Education is mostly a tedious retelling of last September’s bitter confirmation hearings.

To their credit, Kelly and Pogrebin do approach their subject with a refreshing lack of bias, and are often fair to him. They do not turn Kavanaugh into a monster, and they flatly reject several of the more sensational allegations against him—including those made by controversial celebrity attorney Michael Avenatti through his unreliable client, Julie Swetnick. The book itself generally avoids making unfounded allegations, and the significant amount of reporting is not to be discounted.

Even so, the book’s conclusion makes clear that Pogrebin and Kelly come down right where you would expect.

“As people, our gut reaction was that the allegations of Ford and Ramirez from the past rang true,” they write. “As reporters, we uncovered nothing to suggest that Kavanaugh has mistreated women in the years since. Ultimately, we combined our notebooks with our common sense and came to believe an utterly human narrative: that Ford and Ramirez were mistreated by Kavanaugh as a teenager, and that Kavanaugh over the next thirty-five years became a better person. We come to this complicated, seemingly contradictory, and perhaps unsatisfying conclusion based on the facts as we found them.”

These facts, though, are essentially the same ones reported exhaustively in major media outlets last year, when every journalist worth his or her salt made attempts to determine the location of the house where Christine Blasey Ford was allegedly assaulted by Kavanaugh and his friend, Mark Judge. Aside from Ford, everyone allegedly present for the incident in question—Kavanaugh, Judge, friend P.J. Smyth, and notably, Leland Keyser, a close female friend of Ford’s—denies any memory of it having occurred. Maybe they are wrong or lying. But neither Kavanaugh skeptics nor Kavanaugh defenders nor even Kavanaugh undecideds will change their minds based on the information in Education. We’ve heard most of it before.

Pogrebin and Kelly do break some new ground in recounting the tales of Kavanaugh’s youth, though again—despite the title—the future justice’s teenage years constitute significantly less than half of the book. Here, mundane aspects of adolescence are treated like revelations. Take how the authors describe the environment at Georgetown Prep:

Students could be cruel and combative, and competitive. Tensions sometimes became inflamed on the weekends because of excessive drinking. Many of the Prep boys were also ill-equipped for socializing with girls. An environment with limited sex education, no female students, and just a handful of female educators, some alumni say, became a breeding ground in the early 1980s for a casual brand of misogyny.

Among Prep’s alpha males, there was a sense of entitlement—over girls, younger students, smaller boys, public school graduates, and non-athletes. A military-style social hierarchy was immediately evident to freshmen. First-years were treated like plebes, to be picked on and pushed around by the upperclassmen, some of whom had suffered the same hazing rituals. The more diminutive students were sometimes deposited into campus trash cans or stuffed into lockers. The bigger boys and those who had standing because of older brothers or ties to Mater Dei were inoculated.

The above could be a description of any boys high school in the U.S., but Pogrebin and Kelly write as if Kavanaugh was the product of some uniquely violent, misogynistic culture. In reality, it appears from their own reporting that he had one of the most normal upbringings imaginable, and showed completely typical interest in sports, drinking, girls (though he was awkward around them), and male camaraderie. It quickly becomes clear that this information is only of interest because the authors implicitly treat it as circumstantial evidence that Ford’s account should be considered credible.

Pogrebin and Kelly are also inclined to condemn Kavanaugh for his hostile and combative temperament during the Senate Judiciary Committee’s questioning relating to the Ford allegation. In fact, it is here that they engage in their most aggressive editorializing. They accuse Kavanaugh of “brazenly [violating] his very own principles about ‘proper demeanor'” when he thunderously denied the accusations and lashed out at Democrats for scrutinizing him. They exhaustively quote Democratic politicians and left-of-center media folks asserting that Kavanaugh’s aggressive temperament was itself disqualifying.

“Above and beyond the accusations of misdeeds, the charges of telling falsehoods, and the theme of heavy drinking sits another, more encompassing, dilemma: Kavanaugh’s temperament,” they write. “Despite superlative marks from the American Bar Association and many associates, Kavanaugh’s usual evenness was absent from the September 27 hearing.”

Far from being a “more encompassing dilemma” than potential sexual misconduct, Kavanaugh’s anger was completely understandable. It did not remotely constitute some betrayal of principle. Yes, judges should keep an even temperament and a civil tone in their role as impartial moderators, but Kavanaugh was not occupying the moderator role during the September 27 hearing: On the contrary, he was playing the part of the defendant.


Education is largely a dud, which helps explain why its authors have had to make mountains out of molehills. The Sunday Review’s mistake was soon compounded by a similar misunderstanding elsewhere in the media. When asked if they interviewed Kavanaugh for the book, Pogrebin and Kelly said they could not agree on the terms of the discussion. “He wanted us to say we hadn’t spoken to him,” Pogrebin explained.

That’s a rather sinister way of describing a common demand made by interviewees for anonymity—a promise that what they say will not be attributed to them, or will be used only for background purposes. It’s not exactly clear what the sticking point was, and if Kavanaugh demanded that exact phrasing as a condition of the interview, the authors were right to insist on something more technically accurate, along the lines of Kavanaugh declined to comment on the record. But it’s far from established that Kavanaugh did so: As The Washington Examiner‘s Becket Adams pointed out, the declined-to-comment language may have come from a Kavanaugh representative, and not the justice himself. We don’t know whether this representative worked for Kavanaugh personally or for the Supreme Court. In any case, HuffPost led with the maximally inflammatory headline: “NY Times Reporters Say Kavanaugh Asked Them to Lie in Exchange for an Interview.”

The book, of course, makes no mention whatsoever of such a lie being requested.

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Chicago PMI Re-Slumps Back Into Contraction

Chicago PMI Re-Slumps Back Into Contraction

Despite hope that August’s bounce back into expansion would continue, September saw the key survey slump back into contraction (47.1 vs 50.0 exp) for the 3rd month in the last four…

Source: Bloomberg

This was at the very low end of the forecast range (47 – 52.2 from 27 economists surveyed).

Under the hood, things were not pretty:

  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

  • New orders fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction

  • Employment fell at a slower pace, signaling contraction

  • Inventories fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction

  • Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • Production fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction

  • Order backlogs fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction

Getback to work Mr.Powell!


Tyler Durden

Mon, 09/30/2019 – 09:50

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2mVD76B Tyler Durden

Trump’s Civil War Tweet Is Bad. This Other Tweet Might Be Unconstitutional.

Who had “Civil War fetishizing by the executive branch” on their 2019 bingo card? Because that’s where we find ourselves this Monday morning after President Donald Trump spent the weekend (per usual) watching TV and tweeting furiously.

“If the Democrats are successful in removing the President from office (which they will never be), it will cause a Civil War like fracture in this Nation from which our Country will never heal,” Trump tweeted on Sunday night, quoting what Pastor Robert Jeffress said on Fox News. This followed Trump tweets accusing Rep. Adam Schiff (D–Calif.) of treason and fraud and saying Democrats were trying to “destabilize” America.

While the Civil War tweet is getting more attention, the Schiff tweet may be a bigger deal. The president accusing a member of Congress of treason for something they said on the House or Senate floor is unconstitutional. “Trump’s tweet is by itself arguably impeachable,” suggested political science professor Jacob Levy

The relevant part of the U.S. Constitution is known as the speech and debate clause. It says:

For any Speech or Debate in either House, [members of Congress] shall not be questioned in any other Place.

This clause “serves various purposes: principally to protect the independence and integrity of the legislative branch by protecting against executive or judicial intrusions into the protected legislative sphere,” notes Todd Garvey of the Congressional Research Service.

The Schiff tweet has been overshadowed by Trump’s subsequent mention of civil war. Many are insisting that Trump was threatening to start one and has violated a law against inciting “rebellion or insurrection against the authority of the United States.”

The president didn’t directly threaten to start a civil war, of course, nor make an actual attempt to incite one (yet). But Trump even broaching it as a possibility is disturbing and provides yet more evidence of his truly twisted, selfish way of looking at things.

“Even by Trump standards, this is a remarkably irresponsible tweet,” said National Review‘s David French of this civil war quote. “The impeachment inquiry should focus not just on abuse of power but also fitness for office. This is repugnant.”

“This what he wants from you, Republicans,” tweeted Will Wilkinson of the Niskanen Center. “He literally wants you to fight & die in a bloody civil conflict to bail him out of the mile-deep mineshaft he’s dug with a lifetime of bottomless corruption. That’s how he sees your life: a human shield for him, worthless in itself.”

In between his busy schedule of making unconstitutional statements and walking the line on inciting violence, Trump took time this weekend to highlight the thoughts of randos who dislike the same people as he dislikes and a “Trump But About Sharks” parody account.


FREE MINDS

The Federalist is being investigated over an anti-union tweet. In June, publisher (and co-founder of the site) Ben Domenech tweeted:

Now, the National Labor Relations Board is “prosecuting a case against the publication’s parent company, FDRLST Media LLC, alleging the tweet violates federal labor laws that give private-sector workers the right to unionize and act collectively for protection without interference from their employer,” Bloomberg reports.

The case shows that the board “will enforce the law against similar comments made on social media, so long as it’s reasonable to believe that employees will see or learn about their superiors’ statements,” notes Hassan A. Kanu, Bloomberg legal reporter.

Yikes.

“This is a situation where someone, on their personal Twitter account, expressed a viewpoint, so any action against that kind of speech would implicate First Amendment concerns,” Aditya Dynar, one of The Federalist‘s attorneys on this case, told Bloomberg. “We’re thinking of filing a motion to dismiss where we’ll flesh out all our arguments.”


FREE MARKETS

No, Google isn’t stealing ad revenue that rightfully belongs to news organizations. A thread:

Read more here.


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