Global Economy Paralyzed In Low-Growth Trap As QE Can’t Ward Off Next Crisis 

Global Economy Paralyzed In Low-Growth Trap As QE Can’t Ward Off Next Crisis 

The global economy is paralyzed, now stuck in a low-growth trap where conventional monetary policy by global central banks is less effective than ever before.

The world is on the brink of a global trade recession, week by week, economic data from Asia, Europe, and the US continues to decelerate into the late year. Despite central banks lowering interest rates and expanding balance sheets, nothing at the moment seems to be working to trough global growth.

Former governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King recognizes that the global economic slowdown is happening because monetary policy isn’t the answer, and argues that other innovative strategies have to be developed to rebalance the world economy.

“The Great Depression was followed by political upheaval and, in economics, an intellectual revolution. This time around, we’ve got the political turmoil but no comparable questioning of the ideas underpinning economic policy. That needs to change.

Modern policymakers operate in a world of radical uncertainty. They simply do not know what might happen next — and under these conditions, economic models need to be seen in a new light. The question isn’t whether the models are right or wrong, but whether they’re helpful or unhelpful. Today, the key features of standard models lead us astray in judging how to get the world economy out of its low-growth trap, and how to prepare for the next financial crisis,” King wrote in a recent Bloomberg Opionion peice.

Astonishingly, central bankers always wait until after they quit their job to drop truth bombs about how their destructive policies are leading to the next financial crash.

And it’s not just one ex-central banker who is sounding the alarm about monetary policy’s inability to save the world from the next financial crisis, Greece’s former finance head Yanis Varoufakis told CNBC last week that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) bond-buying program is no longer enough to save the Eurozone from a collapse.

“QE, the way it has been restructured resembles an antibiotic that has stopped working because the bacteria have grown adapted to it,” Varoufakis said.

A former economist at the ECB, Otmar Issing, told CNBC on Wednesday that the bond-buying program has “no positive effects anymore, but only negative effects.”

Varoufakis said the ECB needs to develop new policy tools because the ones currently deployed won’t save the Eurozone from a recession. 

The ECB first unveiled its bond-buying program in 2015, which led to a partial recovery through mid-2018. But with too much debt and no innovation in monetary policy, the ECB, along with other central bankers and their respected countries across the world, have entered a period where toolkits might not be able to ward off the next crisis. 


Tyler Durden

Sun, 11/03/2019 – 08:45

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French High School Students Will Learn About Bitcoin And Crypto

French High School Students Will Learn About Bitcoin And Crypto

Authored by Joeri Cant via CoinTelegraph.com,

France is about to introduce an educational module to its high school curriculum that covers Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrencies.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

In June, the French Ministry of National Education amended its study plan to incorporate the world’s largest cryptocurrency. French educators are expected to teach an introductory course that will assist students in understanding the impact Bitcoin has on the French and global economies.

The ministry further provides teachers with three educational explainer videos that address questions such as “Is Bitcoin the currency of the future?”, “Can Bitcoin replace the Euro?” and “Do you have trust in your currency?”

According to the ministry’s outline, students will be required to compare Bitcoin with fiat currencies, which will eventually lead to basic knowledge about Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and their role in the traditional financial world.

As it is only an introductory course to Bitcoin, students are not expected to leave the classroom as full-fledged crypto experts. However, teaching young students some of the ins-and-outs of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will provide them with knowledge that grows increasingly relevant as cryptocurrencies become more widely adopted. 

France and Bitcoin adoption

France is seeing a surge in cryptocurrency adoption with the French crypto startup Keplerk relaunching its service at the beginning of October to accept BTC payments in over 5,200 tobacco shops in France. 

In late September, over 25,000 points-of-sale of 30 French retailers including sportswear giant Decathlon and cosmetics store Sephora announced that they will start accepting Bitcoin payments by early 2020.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 11/03/2019 – 08:10

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If There Were A UK General Election Tomorrow…

If There Were A UK General Election Tomorrow…

At the fourth attempt, prime minister Johnson’s wish for a general election was finally granted by Parliament this week.

So what do the most recent voting intention polls say?

When looking at the four selected for this chart, Statista’s Martin Armstrong points out that the Conservatives are well ahead, with an average lead of 14 points over Labour.

Infographic: UK voting intention | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Calling the election before Brexit has been resolved though, brings the unpredictability of a Nigel Farage-led Brexit Party into the mix. Currently, they are polling at an average of 11 percent, but that figure could increase significantly over the next few weeks.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 11/03/2019 – 07:35

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Foreign Aid Makes Corrupt Countries More Corrupt

Foreign Aid Makes Corrupt Countries More Corrupt

Authored by James Bovard at jimbovard.com,

Any time a government hands out money, not just foreign aid, it breeds corruption… And there are few better examples than Ukraine – just don’t tell the House impeachment hearings.

Barricade with the protesters at Hrushevskogo street on January 26, 2014 in Kiev, Ukraine.Sasha Maksymenko / cc

Counting on foreign aid to reduce corruption is like expecting whiskey to cure alcoholism. After closed House of Representatives impeachment hearings heard testimony on President Trump’s role in delaying U.S. aid to Ukraine, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer declared:

Numbers don’t lie. It’s even more clear now that President Trump is not the anti-corruption crusader he claims to be.”

Most of the press coverage has tacitly assumed that American assistance is vital to fighting corruption in Ukraine. But that ignores foreign aid’s toxic record and Ukraine’s post-Soviet history.

2002 American Economic Review analysis concluded that “increases in [foreign] aid are associated with contemporaneous increases in corruption,” and that “corruption is positively correlated with aid received from the United States.”

That was the year President George W. Bush launched a new foreign aid program, the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA). Bush declared, “I think it makes no sense to give aid, money, to countries that are corrupt.” But the Bush administration continued delivering billions of dollars in handouts to many of the world’s most corrupt regimes. By 2004, the State Department had codified what amounted to backtracking: “The MCA is an incentive-based supplement to other U.S. aid programs.” The Bush team found excuses to give MCA aid to some of the world’s most corrupt governments as well, including Georgia.

In 2010, President Barack Obama proclaimed at the United Nations that America was “leading a global effort to combat corruption.” Obama’s “aides said the United States in the past has often seemed to just throw money at problems,” the Los Angeles Times reported. But the reform charade was exposed the following year when the Obama administration fiercely resisted congressional efforts to curb wasteful aid. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that restricting handouts to nations that fail anti-corruption tests “has the potential to affect a staggering number of needy aid recipients.”

The Obama administration continued pouring tens of billions of American tax dollars into sinkholes such as Afghanistan, which even its president, Ashraf Ghani, admitted in 2016 was “one of the most corrupt countries on earth.” And the deluge of aid the Afghan government received only worsened the corruption. As John Sopko, the heroic Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction (SIGAR), observed, “We need to understand how US policies and practices unintentionally aided and abetted corruption. We must recognize the danger of dealing with characters or networks of unsavory repute, tolerating contracting abuses, accepting shoddy performance and delivering unsustainable projects.”

The closed House impeachment hearings last week heard from acting U.S. ambassador to the Ukraine William B. Taylor Jr., who testified that he “had authority over the bulk of the U.S. effort to support Ukraine against the Russian invasion and to help it defeat corruption.” The Washington Post lauded Taylor as someone who “spent much of the 1990s telling Ukrainian politicians that nothing was more critical to their long-term prosperity than rooting out corruption and bolstering the rule of law, in his role as the head of U.S. development assistance for post-Soviet countries.”

Transparency International, which publishes an annual Corruption Perceptions Index, shows that corruption surged in Ukraine during the late 1990s and remains at obscene levels (though recent years have shown slight improvements). Taylor was ambassador to Ukraine from 2006 to 2009, when corruption sharply worsened despite hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. aid. Ukraine is now ranked as the 120th least corrupt nation in the world—lower than Egypt and Pakistan, two other major U.S. aid recipients. What Washington Redskins owner Dan Snyder is to the NFL, Taylor appears to be to the anti-corruption cause.

Bribing foreign politicians to encourage honest government makes as much sense as distributing free condoms to encourage abstinence. Rather than encouraging good governance practices, foreign aid is more likely to produce kleptocracies, or governments of thieves. As a Brookings Institution analysis observed, “The history of U.S. assistance is littered with tales of corrupt foreign officials using aid to line their own pockets, support military buildups, and pursue vanity projects.” And both American politicians and bureaucrats are want to continue the aid gravy train, regardless of how foreign regimes waste the money or use it to repress their own citizens.

If U.S. aid was effective, Ukraine would have become a rule of law paradise long ago. The country’s new president, Volodymyr Zelensky, may be sincere in his efforts to root out corruption. But it is an insult to both him and his nation to pretend that Ukraine cannot clean up its act without help from Donald Trump. The surest way to reduce foreign corruption is to end foreign aid.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 11/03/2019 – 07:00

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What Is a ‘Well Regulated Militia,’ Anyway?

Gun control advocates love to hate District of Columbia v. Heller, the 2008 case in which the Supreme Court recognized that the Second Amendment protects an individual right to arms. They may be protesting too much. Federal courts in the decade since have found many restrictions on the right to own and use weapons perfectly congruent with that decision. Heller merely says the government can’t enforce laws that prevent (most) Americans from possessing commonly used weapons in their homes for self-defense.

Courts have found that Heller does not preclude laws that prohibit anyone younger than 21 from buying guns in retail stores; laws that bar people who committed a single nonviolent felony from ever owning a gun; laws that severely restrict the ability to carry a gun outside the home; laws that ban commonly owned magazines of a certain capacity; or laws that require handguns to incorporate untested, expensive, and unreliable “microstamping” technology. The Supreme Court so far has avoided taking up any of those questions.

Still, many activists and legal scholars, along with at least two of the Supreme Court justices who dissented in Heller, believe the Second Amendment, properly construed, never guaranteed an individual right at all, or at least not one related to personal self-defense in the home.

Their argument is based on that amendment’s reference to “a well regulated militia,” which they define as a military force organized and supervised by the government. Outside a well-regulated militia, they suggest, the Second Amendment has no practical effect a lawmaker need respect. Some gun control advocates also argue that the descriptor well regulated implies that the government has wide latitude to decide who may have which weapons under what circumstances. But as the Supreme Court correctly concluded in Heller, these arguments are inconsistent with the text and context of the Second Amendment.

The structure of the Second Amendment has invited decades of dueling interpretations. “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State,” it says, “the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”

The part of the amendment that could be its own stand-alone sentence—the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed—is known as the “operative clause.” The well regulated Militia part—the prefatory clause—is understood by enthusiastic gun regulators as defining the only reason for preserving the right to keep and bear arms (as opposed to one of the reasons). Anyone who is not a member of a well-regulated militia would have no such right.

The late Justice Antonin Scalia, who wrote the majority opinion in Heller, thought it made no sense to read the prefatory clause that way, because that would essentially nullify the direct and clear meaning of the operative clause. While the prefatory clause could give insight into some of the specifics of how to apply the operative clause, he argued, it could not make the right to arms contingent on militia service.

Scalia pointed out that the amendment refers to “the right of the people.” When that language is used elsewhere in the Bill of Rights—in the First and Fourth Amendments, for example—it plainly means a right that belongs to every individual, as opposed to a collective with special properties, such as a militia. A prefatory clause mentioning a purpose, Scalia argued, is not sufficient to overwhelm the commonsense and contextual meaning of a right guaranteed to everyone. Furthermore, he said, contemporaneous usage makes it clear that the phrase bear arms cannot be restricted to a military context, as Justice John Paul Stevens suggested it should be in his dissent.

Eugene Volokh, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles School of Law, explored the relationship between the prefatory and operative clauses of the Second Amendment in a 1998 New York University Law Review article that helped lay the groundwork for Heller. While such prefatory phrases were unusual in the U.S. Constitution, Volokh noted, they were common enough in state constitutions that their function can be elucidated by considering how those documents were understood.

Volokh cited dozens of state constitutional provisions from the founding era that used a similar structure: a prefatory clause stating a purpose, followed by a statement of a right. These provisions covered, among other things, freedom of speech, freedom from unjustified searches and seizures, and the right to be tried for a crime in the county where the crime was committed. In such cases, Volokh said, no one could reasonably argue that “only when a judge has concluded that exercising the right furthers the prefatory purpose does the right exist.”

The idea that the Second Amendment applies only to people actively serving in a government-organized militia is based partly on a misreading of the 1939 case U.S. v. Miller. In Miller, the Supreme Court upheld the prosecution of two men who violated the National Firearms Act by transporting an unregistered sawed-off shotgun across state lines. “In the absence of any evidence tending to show that possession or use of a ‘shotgun having a barrel of less than eighteen inches in length’…has some reasonable relationship to the preservation or efficiency of a well regulated militia,” Justice James McReynolds wrote in the unanimous opinion, “we cannot say that the Second Amendment guarantees the right to keep and bear such an instrument.”

McReynolds was talking about the kinds of weapons covered, not the kinds of people. He repeatedly noted that the “militia” mentioned in the Second Amendment “comprised all males physically capable of acting in concert for the common defense.” In other words, the militia was not limited to a government-supervised fighting force; it consisted of all able-bodied men. The decision is an example of how both clauses of the Second Amendment can be meaningful, with McReynolds using the prefatory clause to help settle a question raised by the operative clause without reducing it to a nullity. What arms do the people have the right to keep and bear? The type used in an organized militia.

When the Second Amendment was written, the idea that Americans had an individual right (and in some cases an obligation) to possess arms for defense of both themselves and the state was widely understood. It had roots in the rights won by the Glorious Revolution of 1688—rights that the American Revolution was dedicated to preserving.

In 1788, as Massachusetts was poised to ratify the U.S. Constitution, Samuel Adams advocated an amendment making it clear that “the Constitution shall never be construed…to prevent the people of the United States who are peaceable citizens from keeping their own arms.” Commenting on the proposed Bill of Rights the following year, Tench Coxe, a member of the Continental Congress, described the Second Amendment this way: “As civil rulers, not having their duty to the people before them, may attempt to tyrannize, and as the military forces which must be occasionally raised to defend our country, might pervert their power to the injury of their fellow citizens, the people are confirmed by the article in their right to keep and bear their private arms.”

After the Bill of Rights was ratified, St. George Tucker, a professor of law at the College of William & Mary, described the Second Amendment as “the true palladium of liberty.” He noted that “the right to self-defence is the first law of nature” and that “in most governments it has been the study of rulers to confine the right within the narrowest limits possible.”

This tradition was reflected in state constitutions that explicitly guaranteed an individual right to armed self-defense. Pennsylvania’s, enacted in 1790, said “the right of the citizens to bear arms in defence of themselves and the State shall not be questioned,” for example, while Vermont’s, enacted in 1777, said “the people have a right to bear arms for the defence of themselves and the State.”

Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution also helps clarify what the Second Amendment was all about. Among other things, that section gives Congress the power “to provide for calling forth the militia to execute the laws of the union, suppress insurrections and repel invasions” and “to provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the militia, and for governing such part of them as may be employed in the service of the United States, reserving to the states respectively, the appointment of the officers, and the authority of training the militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress.”

People who deny that the Second Amendment protects an individual right to armed self-defense often argue that it was actually meant to protect state control of militias. But Article I, Section 8 shows that the states had already lost that battle.

If you believe the Second Amendment is just about state control of militias, it’s an absurd nullity: It lays out a right and a purpose contradicted by the body of the Constitution, which gives the federal government near-total authority over the organized militia. As Scalia put it in Heller, under that interpretation, which the Court was rejecting, “the Second Amendment protects citizens’ right to use a gun in an organization from which Congress has plenary authority to exclude them,” making the right meaningless.

The only sense in which the Second Amendment’s language could logically relate to those clauses is by saying that, notwithstanding the federal government’s authority over the militias, the one thing it may not do is infringe on the people’s right to keep and bear arms. The Senate, in ratifying the Constitution, considered and rejected a proposal that would have added “for the common defense” as a restriction on that right.

The militia, in the classic sense of the mass body of physically able adult citizens, still exists, though state attempts to “regulate” it are actuated through the National Guard nowadays. Is the larger, unorganized militia “well regulated”? Probably not if understood the way the Framers would have: as a wide body of the American people prepared to take up arms in defense of themselves and the state.

But whether we currently have a well-regulated militia doesn’t control whether or not Americans have a right to keep and bear arms. The ideological background of the Second Amendment, the plain meaning of its operative clause, parallel phrasing elsewhere in the Constitution, and the militia clauses of Section I make it clear that they do. The Second Amendment, as Scalia rightly recognized, guarantees an individual right to the people, no matter how the federal government chooses to regulate the organized militia.

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What Is a ‘Well Regulated Militia,’ Anyway?

Gun control advocates love to hate District of Columbia v. Heller, the 2008 case in which the Supreme Court recognized that the Second Amendment protects an individual right to arms. They may be protesting too much. Federal courts in the decade since have found many restrictions on the right to own and use weapons perfectly congruent with that decision. Heller merely says the government can’t enforce laws that prevent (most) Americans from possessing commonly used weapons in their homes for self-defense.

Courts have found that Heller does not preclude laws that prohibit anyone younger than 21 from buying guns in retail stores; laws that bar people who committed a single nonviolent felony from ever owning a gun; laws that severely restrict the ability to carry a gun outside the home; laws that ban commonly owned magazines of a certain capacity; or laws that require handguns to incorporate untested, expensive, and unreliable “microstamping” technology. The Supreme Court so far has avoided taking up any of those questions.

Still, many activists and legal scholars, along with at least two of the Supreme Court justices who dissented in Heller, believe the Second Amendment, properly construed, never guaranteed an individual right at all, or at least not one related to personal self-defense in the home.

Their argument is based on that amendment’s reference to “a well regulated militia,” which they define as a military force organized and supervised by the government. Outside a well-regulated militia, they suggest, the Second Amendment has no practical effect a lawmaker need respect. Some gun control advocates also argue that the descriptor well regulated implies that the government has wide latitude to decide who may have which weapons under what circumstances. But as the Supreme Court correctly concluded in Heller, these arguments are inconsistent with the text and context of the Second Amendment.

The structure of the Second Amendment has invited decades of dueling interpretations. “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State,” it says, “the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”

The part of the amendment that could be its own stand-alone sentence—the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed—is known as the “operative clause.” The well regulated Militia part—the prefatory clause—is understood by enthusiastic gun regulators as defining the only reason for preserving the right to keep and bear arms (as opposed to one of the reasons). Anyone who is not a member of a well-regulated militia would have no such right.

The late Justice Antonin Scalia, who wrote the majority opinion in Heller, thought it made no sense to read the prefatory clause that way, because that would essentially nullify the direct and clear meaning of the operative clause. While the prefatory clause could give insight into some of the specifics of how to apply the operative clause, he argued, it could not make the right to arms contingent on militia service.

Scalia pointed out that the amendment refers to “the right of the people.” When that language is used elsewhere in the Bill of Rights—in the First and Fourth Amendments, for example—it plainly means a right that belongs to every individual, as opposed to a collective with special properties, such as a militia. A prefatory clause mentioning a purpose, Scalia argued, is not sufficient to overwhelm the commonsense and contextual meaning of a right guaranteed to everyone. Furthermore, he said, contemporaneous usage makes it clear that the phrase bear arms cannot be restricted to a military context, as Justice John Paul Stevens suggested it should be in his dissent.

Eugene Volokh, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles School of Law, explored the relationship between the prefatory and operative clauses of the Second Amendment in a 1998 New York University Law Review article that helped lay the groundwork for Heller. While such prefatory phrases were unusual in the U.S. Constitution, Volokh noted, they were common enough in state constitutions that their function can be elucidated by considering how those documents were understood.

Volokh cited dozens of state constitutional provisions from the founding era that used a similar structure: a prefatory clause stating a purpose, followed by a statement of a right. These provisions covered, among other things, freedom of speech, freedom from unjustified searches and seizures, and the right to be tried for a crime in the county where the crime was committed. In such cases, Volokh said, no one could reasonably argue that “only when a judge has concluded that exercising the right furthers the prefatory purpose does the right exist.”

The idea that the Second Amendment applies only to people actively serving in a government-organized militia is based partly on a misreading of the 1939 case U.S. v. Miller. In Miller, the Supreme Court upheld the prosecution of two men who violated the National Firearms Act by transporting an unregistered sawed-off shotgun across state lines. “In the absence of any evidence tending to show that possession or use of a ‘shotgun having a barrel of less than eighteen inches in length’…has some reasonable relationship to the preservation or efficiency of a well regulated militia,” Justice James McReynolds wrote in the unanimous opinion, “we cannot say that the Second Amendment guarantees the right to keep and bear such an instrument.”

McReynolds was talking about the kinds of weapons covered, not the kinds of people. He repeatedly noted that the “militia” mentioned in the Second Amendment “comprised all males physically capable of acting in concert for the common defense.” In other words, the militia was not limited to a government-supervised fighting force; it consisted of all able-bodied men. The decision is an example of how both clauses of the Second Amendment can be meaningful, with McReynolds using the prefatory clause to help settle a question raised by the operative clause without reducing it to a nullity. What arms do the people have the right to keep and bear? The type used in an organized militia.

When the Second Amendment was written, the idea that Americans had an individual right (and in some cases an obligation) to possess arms for defense of both themselves and the state was widely understood. It had roots in the rights won by the Glorious Revolution of 1688—rights that the American Revolution was dedicated to preserving.

In 1788, as Massachusetts was poised to ratify the U.S. Constitution, Samuel Adams advocated an amendment making it clear that “the Constitution shall never be construed…to prevent the people of the United States who are peaceable citizens from keeping their own arms.” Commenting on the proposed Bill of Rights the following year, Tench Coxe, a member of the Continental Congress, described the Second Amendment this way: “As civil rulers, not having their duty to the people before them, may attempt to tyrannize, and as the military forces which must be occasionally raised to defend our country, might pervert their power to the injury of their fellow citizens, the people are confirmed by the article in their right to keep and bear their private arms.”

After the Bill of Rights was ratified, St. George Tucker, a professor of law at the College of William & Mary, described the Second Amendment as “the true palladium of liberty.” He noted that “the right to self-defence is the first law of nature” and that “in most governments it has been the study of rulers to confine the right within the narrowest limits possible.”

This tradition was reflected in state constitutions that explicitly guaranteed an individual right to armed self-defense. Pennsylvania’s, enacted in 1790, said “the right of the citizens to bear arms in defence of themselves and the State shall not be questioned,” for example, while Vermont’s, enacted in 1777, said “the people have a right to bear arms for the defence of themselves and the State.”

Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution also helps clarify what the Second Amendment was all about. Among other things, that section gives Congress the power “to provide for calling forth the militia to execute the laws of the union, suppress insurrections and repel invasions” and “to provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the militia, and for governing such part of them as may be employed in the service of the United States, reserving to the states respectively, the appointment of the officers, and the authority of training the militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress.”

People who deny that the Second Amendment protects an individual right to armed self-defense often argue that it was actually meant to protect state control of militias. But Article I, Section 8 shows that the states had already lost that battle.

If you believe the Second Amendment is just about state control of militias, it’s an absurd nullity: It lays out a right and a purpose contradicted by the body of the Constitution, which gives the federal government near-total authority over the organized militia. As Scalia put it in Heller, under that interpretation, which the Court was rejecting, “the Second Amendment protects citizens’ right to use a gun in an organization from which Congress has plenary authority to exclude them,” making the right meaningless.

The only sense in which the Second Amendment’s language could logically relate to those clauses is by saying that, notwithstanding the federal government’s authority over the militias, the one thing it may not do is infringe on the people’s right to keep and bear arms. The Senate, in ratifying the Constitution, considered and rejected a proposal that would have added “for the common defense” as a restriction on that right.

The militia, in the classic sense of the mass body of physically able adult citizens, still exists, though state attempts to “regulate” it are actuated through the National Guard nowadays. Is the larger, unorganized militia “well regulated”? Probably not if understood the way the Framers would have: as a wide body of the American people prepared to take up arms in defense of themselves and the state.

But whether we currently have a well-regulated militia doesn’t control whether or not Americans have a right to keep and bear arms. The ideological background of the Second Amendment, the plain meaning of its operative clause, parallel phrasing elsewhere in the Constitution, and the militia clauses of Section I make it clear that they do. The Second Amendment, as Scalia rightly recognized, guarantees an individual right to the people, no matter how the federal government chooses to regulate the organized militia.

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How Controlling Syria’s Oil Serves Washington’s Strategic Objectives?

How Controlling Syria’s Oil Serves Washington’s Strategic Objectives?

Authored by Nauman Sadiq,

Before the evacuation of 1,000 American troops from northern Syria to western Iraq, the Pentagon had 2,000 US forces in Syria. After the drawdown of US troops at Erdogan’s insistence in order for Ankara to mount a ground offensive in northern Syria, the US has still deployed 1,000 troops, mainly in oil-rich eastern Deir al-Zor province and at al-Tanf military base.

Al-Tanf military base is strategically located in southeastern Syria on the border between Syria, Iraq and Jordan, and it straddles on a critically important Damascus-Baghdad highway, which serves as a lifeline for Damascus. Washington has illegally occupied 55-kilometer area around al-Tanf since 2016, and several hundred US Marines have trained several Syrian militant groups there.

It’s worth noting that rather than fighting the Islamic State, the purpose of continued presence of the US forces at al-Tanf military base is to address Israel’s concerns regarding the expansion of Iran’s influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

Regarding the oil- and natural gas-rich Deir al-Zor governorate, it’s worth pointing out that Syria used to produce modest quantities of oil for domestic needs before the war – roughly 400,000 barrels per day, which isn’t much compared to tens of millions barrels daily oil production in the Gulf states.

Although Donald Trump crowed in a characteristic blunt manner in a tweet after the withdrawal of 1,000 American troops from northern Syria that Washington had deployed forces in eastern Syria where there was oil, the purpose of exercising control over Syria’s oil is neither to smuggle oil out of Syria nor to deny the valuable source of revenue to the Islamic State.

There is no denying the fact that the remnants of the Islamic State militants are still found in Syria and Iraq but its emirate has been completely dismantled in the region and its leadership is on the run. So much so that the fugitive caliph of the terrorist organization was killed in the bastion of a rival jihadist outfit, al-Nusra Front in Idlib, hundreds of kilometers away from the Islamic State strongholds in eastern Syria.

Much like the “scorched earth” battle strategy of medieval warlords – as in the case of the Islamic State which early in the year burned crops of local farmers while retreating from its former strongholds in eastern Syria – Washington’s basic purpose in deploying the US forces in oil and natural gas fields of Deir al-Zor governorate is to deny the valuable source of income to its other main rival in the region, Damascus.

After the devastation caused by eight years of proxy war, the Syrian government is in dire need of tens of billions dollars international assistance to rebuild the country. Not only is Washington hampering efforts to provide international aid to the hapless country, it is in fact squatting over Syria’s own resources with the help of its only ally in the region, the Kurds.

Although Donald Trump claimed credit for expropriating Syria’s oil wealth, it bears mentioning that “scorched earth” policy is not a business strategy, it is the institutional logic of the deep state. President Trump is known to be a businessman and at least ostensibly follows a non-interventionist ideology; being a novice in the craft of international diplomacy, however, he has time and again been misled by the Pentagon and Washington’s national security establishment.

Regarding Washington’s interest in propping up the Gulf’s autocrats and fighting their wars in regional conflicts, it bears mentioning that in April 2016, the Saudi foreign minister threatened that the Saudi kingdom would sell up to $750 billion in treasury securities and other assets if the US Congress passed a bill that would allow Americans to sue the Saudi government in the United States courts for its role in the September 11, 2001 terror attack – though the bill was eventually passed, Saudi authorities have not been held accountable; even though 15 out of 19 9/11 hijackers were Saudi nationals.

Moreover, $750 billion is only the Saudi investment in the United States, if we add its investment in Western Europe and the investments of UAE, Kuwait and Qatar in the Western economies, the sum total would amount to trillions of dollars of Gulf’s investments in North America and Western Europe.

Furthermore, in order to bring home the significance of the Persian Gulf’s oil in the energy-starved industrialized world, here are a few stats from the OPEC data: Saudi Arabia has the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves of 265 billion barrels and its daily oil production exceeds 10 million barrels; Iran and Iraq, each, has 150 billion barrels reserves and has the capacity to produce 5 million barrels per day, each; while UAE and Kuwait, each, has 100 billion barrels reserves and produces 3 million barrels per day, each; thus, all the littoral states of the Persian Gulf, together, hold 788 billion barrels, more than half of world’s 1477 billion barrels of proven oil reserves.

No wonder then, 36,000 United States troops have currently been deployed in their numerous military bases and aircraft carriers in the oil-rich Persian Gulf in accordance with the Carter Doctrine of 1980, which states: “Let our position be absolutely clear: an attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.”

Additionally, regarding the Western defense production industry’s sales of arms to the Gulf Arab States, a report authored by William Hartung of the US-based Center for International Policy found that the Obama administration had offered Saudi Arabia more than $115 billion in weapons, military equipment and training during its eight-year tenure.

Similarly, the top items in Trump’s agenda for his maiden visit to Saudi Arabia in May 2017 were: firstly, he threw his weight behind the idea of the Saudi-led “Arab NATO” to counter Iran’s influence in the region; and secondly, he announced an unprecedented arms package for Saudi Arabia. The package included between $98 billion and $128 billion in arms sales.

Therefore, keeping the economic dependence of the Western countries on the Gulf Arab States in mind, during the times of global recession when most of manufacturing has been outsourced to China, it is not surprising that when the late King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia decided to provide training and arms to the Islamic jihadists in the border regions of Turkey and Jordan against the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the Obama administration was left with no other choice but to toe the destructive policy of its regional Middle Eastern allies, despite the sectarian nature of the proxy war and its attendant consequences of breeding a new generation of Islamic jihadists who would become a long-term security risk not only to the Middle East but to the Western countries, as well.

Similarly, when King Abdullah’s successor King Salman decided, on the whim of the Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, to invade Yemen in March 2015, once again the Obama administration had to yield to the dictates of Saudi Arabia and UAE by fully coordinating the Gulf-led military campaign in Yemen not only by providing intelligence, planning and logistical support but also by selling billions of dollars’ worth of arms and ammunition to the Gulf Arab States during the conflict.

In this reciprocal relationship, the US provides security to the ruling families of the Gulf Arab states by providing weapons and troops; and in return, the Gulf’s petro-sheikhs contribute substantial investments to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars to the Western economies.

Regarding the Pax Americana which is the reality of the contemporary neocolonial order, according to a January 2017 infographic by the New York Times, 210,000 US military personnel were stationed all over the world, including 79,000 in Europe, 45,000 in Japan, 28,500 in South Korea and 36,000 in the Middle East.

Although Donald Trump keeps complaining that NATO must share the cost of deployment of US troops, particularly in Europe where 47,000 American troops are stationed in Germany since the end of the Second World War, 15,000 in Italy and 8,000 in the United Kingdom, fact of the matter is that the cost is already shared between Washington and host countries.

Roughly, European countries pay one-third of the cost for maintaining US military bases in Europe whereas Washington chips in the remaining two-third. In the Far Eastern countries, 75% of the cost for the deployment of American troops is shared by Japan and the remaining 25% by Washington, and in South Korea, 40% cost is shared by the host country and the US contributes the remaining 60%.

Whereas the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) – Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar – pay two-third of the cost for maintaining 36,000 US troops in the Persian Gulf where more than half of world’s proven oil reserves are located and Washington contributes the remaining one-third.

*  *  *

Nauman Sadiq is an Islamabad-based attorney, columnist and geopolitical analyst focused on the politics of Af-Pak and Middle East regions, neocolonialism and petro-imperialism.


Tyler Durden

Sat, 11/02/2019 – 23:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2WDHvo3 Tyler Durden

Visualizing The Massive Cost Of Cybercrime

Visualizing The Massive Cost Of Cybercrime

What do Equifax, Yahoo, and the U.S. military have in common? They’ve all fallen victim to a cyberattack at some point in the last decade – and they’re just the tip of the iceberg.

Today’s infographic from Raconteur delves into the average damage caused by cyberattacks at the organizational level, sorted by type of attack, industry, and country.

Rising Cybercrime Costs Across the Board

The infographic focuses on data from the latest Accenture “Cost of Cybercrime” study, which details how cyber threats are evolving in a fast-paced digital landscape.

Overall, Visual Capitalist’s Imam Ghosh notes that the average annual cost to organizations has been ballooning for all types of cyberattacks. For example, a single malware attack in 2018 costed more than $2.6 million, while ransomware costs rose the most between 2017–2018, from $533,000 to $646,000 (a 21% increase).

Both information loss and business disruption occurring from attacks have been found to be the major cost drivers, regardless of the type of attack:

  • Malware
    Major consequence: Information Loss
    Average cost: $1.4M (54% of total losses)

  • Web-based attacks
    Major consequence: Information Loss
    Average cost: $1.4M (61% of total losses)

  • Denial-of-Service (DOS)
    Major consequence: Business Disruption
    Average cost: $1.1M (65% of total losses)

  • Malicious insiders
    Major consequences: Business Disruption and Information Loss
    Average cost: $1.2M ($0.6M each, 75% of total losses)

In 2018, information loss and business disruption combined for over 75% of total business losses from cybercrime.

Cybercrime Casts a Wide Net

No industry is untouched by the growing cost of cybercrime—the report notes that organizations have seen security breaches grow by 67% in the past five years alone. Banking is the most affected, with annual costs crossing $18 million in 2018. This probably comes as no surprise, considering that financial motives are consistently a major incentive for hackers.

Here is the average cost of cyberattacks (per organization) across 15 different industries:

Interestingly, the impact on life sciences companies rose the most in a year (up by 86% to $10.9 million per organization), followed by the travel industry (up 77% to $8.2 million per organization). This is likely due to an increase in sensitive and valuable data being shared online, such as clinical trial details or credit card information.

So What Can Companies Do?

Accenture analyzed nine cutting-edge technologies that are helping mitigate cybercrime, and calculated their net savings: the total potential savings minus the required investment in each type of technology or tool.

With almost $2.3 million in net savings, many companies recognize the high payoff that comes with security intelligence. On the other hand, leveraging automation, artificial intelligence, and machine learning can potentially save over $2 million—however, only 38% of businesses have adopted this solution so far.

Cybercrime will remain a large-scale concern for years to come. From 2019–2023E, approximately $5.2 trillion in global value will be at risk from cyberattacks, creating an ongoing challenge for corporations and investors alike.


Tyler Durden

Sat, 11/02/2019 – 23:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/33aQoIj Tyler Durden