Galloway: Facebook Is Species Failure

Galloway: Facebook Is Species Failure

Authored by Scott Galloway via Medium.com,

Survival – the pursuit of more time – is the most basic instinct. Procreation is a distant number 2. But 1a, making the most of your time, is survival instinct coupled with capitalism. Communism was intended as a more noble system — economic parity that avoids the inequality bound to arise from capitalism. Only the reds failed to recognize we won’t wait in line for fish for the benefit of our comrades. A cocktail of self-interest, cooperation, the assembly line, brand, and the processor has yielded more stakeholder value, as measured by GDP, in the last 50 years than in the previous 2,000.

Religion created a lot of value – it made people feel immortal. Time post death is an asset you’d trade shame for. But the ranks of the faithful are thinning. The opium of the masses no longer provides the same high. Wealthier, more educated societies have turned their focus to time on earth.

Any company that creates more than $10 billion in shareholder value does one of two things: extend time (more time, saving time) or enhance time.

Every firm that has aspirations of creating billions in shareholder value must construct a time machine and be clear on the type of benefit — savings or enhancement. The first trillionaire will build a time machine for the healthcare industry. The T-Man, or woman, won’t reduce costs (this is where the analysts get it wrong), but give us millions of years back, in the pursuit of health, at the same or lesser cost.

I’ve had a cough for the last month. My dad and sister freaked out, as I don’t get sick. They imagined the worst and demanded I get a chest x-ray. The doctor’s visit, two trips to Diagnostic Centers of America, and a consultation cost me 8 hours. An intelligent camera, Prime Health (whenever that arrives), and AI will give me 7 hours back. The best strategy for bringing healthcare costs down is to give time back. The real innovation in healthcare will do more than save money — it will save time.

Time Machines

The economic titans of the 20th century got you places faster (Ford, Boeing) or made your life more enjoyable (P&G, Prada). We’ve now gone gangster. Microsoft saves you years in efficiency (extend). LVMH allows you to enjoy the finest in life and increases your selection set of mates (enhance). Apple skimmed the foam off the top of the Microsoft beer, moving from tech to the luxury sector. Apple offered both faster transactions and an enhanced experience (for a 100% premium). iProducts just worked, made you feel better about yourself, and the global affluent willingly paid.

The sector that has created more value than any other over the last 10 years is the disruptors in media (Google, Facebook, and Netflix). These firms pulled a Robin Hood on the greatest thieves of time in post-WWII America — ad-supported media. Modern Family / ABC values your time at $4.67/hr. They get .70c for reminding you that you suffer from diabetes (9 min of ads). CBS gets a buck a month per viewer for urging us to buy awful beer or cars manufactured in South Korea.

Advertising is a tax the poor and technologically illiterate pay.

Ways to extend life:

Clear: I fly 2.5x/wk. I’ll pay Clear $5,370 over 30 years to not stand in line for 46 days.

Walmart Delivery Unlimited: At $98/year, that’s $2,940 over 30 years to get 120 days of your life back.

Netflix: At $156/yr, I’ll pay Netflix $4,680 over the next 30 years to avoid over a year’s worth of ads. If you could pay $4,680 to extend your life by a year, would you?

2013 Bombardier Challenger 300: Total costs over 10 years — depreciation, operating, and financing costs minus tax benefits = $10 million. (Not that I’ve dreamt of this … every day.) A two-bedroom that can skim the surface of the atmosphere at .83 the speed of sound would give me another 13 days a year at home with my family. So, if you had the money, would you, at the end of life, rather have $10 million or 4 more months with family? Keep in mind, that’s 2.5 dawg years. What Apple is to Android, the Challenger is to JetBlue, times a thousand. People who own jets all describe their bird the same way: Time Machine.

Movies and HBO saved some time, but were relatively expensive. And then came Google, Facebook, and Netflix. I’ll get a year back (time spent not watching ads) in exchange for $4,680 spent on Netflix. How to even think of doing research without Google? Would I have to go to a library and log on to Lexis/Nexis? It’s hard to imagine how much time and life Google has created.

The search firm has violated our privacy, divided us, and hamstrung the economy via monopoly abuse. Yet it’s still likely worth it. This doesn’t mean we should shrug our shoulders and not break up big tech. The combustion engine and fossil fuels have created enormous economic growth across the world, but we should still correct the subsequent global warming.

The biggest unlock in shareholder value in the last 5 years is Walmart’s click & collect and delivery. Walmart gave us 4 days a year back — grocery shopping takes an average of 69 min a week; you grocery shop 1.6 times per week, and the average commute for grocery shopping is 12.5 min each way. That makes the largest dollar-volume category (grocery, 750 billion) less time expensive. Since the introduction of click & collect and grocery delivery, Walmart has added over $100 billion in shareholder value.

RedBook

Facebook is now squarely in the red and a net negative for society. The social network held the promise of enhancing our time here, via connection, and has delivered on much of that. However, most time enhancement has been negated, as the social network is depressing our teens and endangering our most precious asset, girls. Teen suicide has skyrocketed — up 77% for older teen girls and up 151% for younger teens (research by colleague Jonathan Haidt).

There are many factors, but ground zero is the nuclear weapons we’ve put in girls’ hands to objectify them, perpetually undercut their self-esteem, and enable them to bully each other relationally, 24/7. Hospital admissions due to self-harm are up 50% for 15–19-year-old girls and up 200% for 10–14-year-old girls. At Facebook, a sociopath is wallpapered over by a 700-person corporate communications department and a $2 billion beard (Sheryl Sandberg).

The Dow, GDP, the Iowa polls. We are studying to the wrong tests. There is nothing more important for the future of the country, our society, and the planet than the health and wellbeing of girls. Think about this. The S&P is up 23% YTD, and the number of girls that decide to take their own life is up 151%. Three times more of them self-harm. The pursuit of money at the expense of girls’ wellbeing is the ultimate perversion of our society. We ignore injury to our daughters in exchange for the promise of economic growth.

Facebook is the incorporation of Jeffrey Epstein and Larry Nassar. Ok, that’s not fair. The social network is Jeffrey Epstein and Larry Nassar… times a million.

Facebook, Inc. is species failure.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 12/03/2019 – 16:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/34LWdg7 Tyler Durden

The Madcap Scheme to Take Syria’s Oil

A retired Army intelligence officer, a successful Kurdish-American businessman, a former Syrian diplomat, and an eccentric entrepreneur from New Jersey met in January over food and drinks to discuss a vexing problem: what to do with Syria’s oil.

U.S. troops were guarding the largest oil field in eastern Syria, and in February 2018 they had fought a bloody battle with Russian mercenaries to keep it. But under U.S. sanctions law, no American could invest in or trade Syrian oil, leaving the black gold either untapped or in the hands of smugglers. Mordechai “Moti” Kahana, an Israeli-American rental car tycoon turned philanthropic adventurer, had a plan: He could get a green light from the Trump administration to trade Syria’s oil for humanitarian aid.

Everyone involved disputes what happens next, but it is clear that Kahana took the people around him on a bizarre adventure. By the time it was over, it had led everywhere from a Kurdish president’s motorcade to a Syrian interrogation room.

In July, fragmentary details of the scheme leaked out to the Arabic press, fuelling anti-American conspiracy theories at a delicate time for U.S.–Kurdish relations. And in November, as President Donald Trump talked about taking Syria’s oil, Kahana tried to pitch his scheme again, threatening another public relations catastrophe.

“We are leaving soldiers [in Syria] to secure the oil. And we may have to fight for the oil,” Trump said on October 27. He added that he wants a deal for “an ExxonMobil or one of our great companies to go in there and do it properly.”

Kahana’s saga is now over, but the absurd American policies that led to it are still in place. While Washington deploys possibly hundreds of troops on an indefinite mission to protect Syrian oil, the long arm of the U.S. Treasury continues to slap down attempts to attract investors and buyers who could do something useful with it.

On November 25, fire rained down from the sky on three different towns in a Turkish-controlled part of Syria. The next morning, rescue workers recovered charred bodies from a handful of burned-out oil smuggling facilities. Syrian officials took credit for the airstrike, claiming that it was aimed at a smuggling operation led by “some Kurdish organizations.”

“Strict measures will be taken against any smuggling of stolen oil from Syrian territory outside Syria,” warned the state-run news agency.

America is risking blood—for no oil.

‘The Right to Explore and Develop Oil’

The bulk of Syria’s oil is buried under the Arab-majority province of Deir ez-Zor. ISIS once controlled this oil, smuggling it out to the tune of $1.5 million per day, according to Rear Admiral William D. Byrne Jr. Most of it was processed in dangerously primitive amateur refineries, according to a 2016 report by the Dutch charity PAX.

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) began to seize these oil fields in October 2017 as they moved to crush the remnants of ISIS. The SDF was aligned with the U.S. But the pipelines from Deir ez-Zor ran through territory controlled by Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.

Brett McGurk was former special presidential envoy in charge of the anti-ISIS coalition at the time. He says that former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson actually floated the idea of working with Assad’s Russian backers to sell the oil and put the revenues in escrow for future reconstruction. Russia wasn’t interested.

Indeed, the Russians tried to take the oil by force themselves in a four-hour battle that killed possibly hundreds of Russian private military contractors and Syrian militia fighters. No Americans were harmed in the battle.

So the SDF and the U.S. were left guarding the same hazardous backyard processing operations and small-scale smuggling networks as before. (Soon after the SDF entered Deir ez-Zor, residents of a border town under SDF control protested against the toxic fumes generated by oil smugglers.) A million and a half dollars per day may be a lot for a group like ISIS, but it’s a drop in the bucket for the international oil industry.

“If you look at how that oil market functioned back when ISIS controlled some of the oil fields and was selling it to Turkey and Iraq, it was all really small-scale stuff,” says Peter Harrell, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. “The only way you make money is to develop and export the oil at scale.”

Companies from countries that recognized Assad as a legitimate leader couldn’t buy oil from the SDF. Harrell explains the dilemma for oil companies in China: “Your government still recognizes Assad. Is the government of Syria going to try to sue you and take title to this oil, because Assad never got paid for it?”

U.S. companies couldn’t do anything either, because an August 2011 executive order made it illegal to deal with or invest in Syrian oil without permission from the Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) at the U.S. Treasury.

Harrell is skeptical that any large oil company would want to deal with the “insurmountable practical challenges” around Syrian oil fields. But the lengthy OFAC application process deterred them from even trying.

U.S. policy was left with an absurd contradiction. While the U.S. government was pursuing a policy of “maximum pressure” against Assad, smugglers continued to sell oil from SDF-controlled oil fields to the Assad regime, under the protection of U.S. forces.

Kahana, who had previously been involved in controversial “freelance” rescue missions to Syria, saw an opportunity.

He says “the Israelis” had asked him to get the SDF to stop selling oil to the Iranian-backed Assad government, so he came up with a plan to partner with private military contractors and send Syrian oil to the Palestinian Territories in exchange for humanitarian supplies.

Kahana sprang into action in December 2018, when Trump declared that “it’s time for our troops to come back home” from Syria. American officials soon walked back the president’s statement, leaving about a thousand U.S. troops in northeast Syria without a clear plan for the future.

Îlham Ahmed—executive president of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the political wing of the SDF—was visiting the United States in the aftermath of Trump’s first withdrawal announcement, and Kahana somehow scored an audience with her to push his oil scheme. Both of them admit to meeting in January, but they tell different stories about what happened next.

Ahmed admits to hearing out Kahana’s ideas but denied approving any further relationship with him. According to WhatsApp messages provided by Kahana, they discussed meeting again, but they never agreed on a time and place.

Kahana, on the other hand, says he obtained an English-language letter directly from the SDC giving him “the right to explore and develop oil that is located in areas that we govern.” The letter, which Kahana showed to Reason, was signed (or appears to have been signed) on January 21 by Jihad Omar, listed as the SDC’s “puplic [sic] relations officer.”

“I did not sign any document. I don’t know this individual,” Omar subsequently said to Reason, speaking Arabic by phone from Syria. “My work is political work. It is not [economic] development work. I do not have authorization to do development work.”

Omar did not appear to speak any English.

“It’s true I do not know or spoke to [sic] Omar,” Kahana then admitted via WhatsApp, but he insists that the letter was directly from Syria.

Kahana also provided a letter he sent to OFAC on February 6, outlining a plan to truck Syrian oil into Iraqi Kurdistan and trade it for Israeli agricultural technology—with Jihad Omar and SDF leader Mazloum Abdi as his Syrian contacts.

“I amended my application yesterday,” Kahana wrote to Reason on November 21, forwarding another letter he had purportedly sent to OFAC. The letter, which does not mention Omar or Mazloum, was also dated February 6.

A spokesperson for the Treasury refused to confirm or deny that Kahana had made an OFAC application, citing the agency’s policy on trade secrets. Robert Seiden, Kahana’s attorney, confirmed that Kahana had filed an OFAC application. Seiden did not respond to follow-up questions.

“Filing was undertaken by major law firm which certainly would not file a false document,” Kahana wrote to Reason in a series of WhatsApp messages. “Again I will NOT LIE TO USA GOVERNMENT.”

‘All This Mess’

Whatever Kahana was told in January, he began to claim he had the SDF’s permission to sell Syrian oil—and to pitch an oil-trading scheme to various well-connected figures.

President Barack Obama’s sanctions order had carved out a “favorable licensing policy” for “petroleum or petroleum products of Syrian origin for the benefit of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces or its supporters.” Or as Harrell summarizes the policy: “if you want to go in and buy some oil from the U.S.-backed opposition in Syria, and you’re willing to do due diligence…come in and have a conversation.”

Kahana knew plenty of opposition-connected Syrian-Americans, including former Syrian diplomat Bassam Barabandi, who had helped more than 100 dissidents escape the country before defecting to America himself in 2013. Barabandi then served as political advisor to the High Negotiations Committee that represents the National Coalition abroad.

Today, the National Coalition is a paper tiger. While the High Negotiations Committee grinds away in molasses-paced peace talks, the National Coalition’s armed wing has mostly been absorbed into a Turkish-backed rebel army fighting the SDF in northeast Syria. But under U.S. law, it is still the sole representative of the Syrian opposition, at least when it comes to oil sanctions.

“The Kurds were never really included under the umbrella of that statement of licensing policy, which is sort of a historical fluke,” Harrell explains. “That was set up very early in the civil war, before all the lines became clear.”

Kahana tried to bring together his Syrian opposition contacts with the Kurds and the SDF.

Barabandi, who has family connections to Deir ez-Zor, had given a former U.S. Army officer named Luke Calhoun a recommendation allowing him to get into eastern Syria for humanitarian work. (Both Barabandi and Calhoun confirm this, though Barabandi insists that it happened “long before all this mess.”) Calhoun introduced Kahana to Kurdish-American businessman Hoger Dizayee, as both Kahana and Dizayee confirm.

And then all four of them had a meal together: Kahana, Barabandi, Calhoun, and Dizayee.

“They told me that they have an agreement with the Syrian Democratic Council, that they gave them permission to market their oil,” Dizayee claims. “I told them that, OK, I’m interested, but before this, because it is a sensitive thing…I have to look at the legality side of it.”

“It was a dinner…attended by many people. They were discussing many different issues: historical, personal,” Barabandi says. “They just touched upon that [oil] issue. I didn’t follow up.”

Barabandi admits that he had sent Dizayee’s contact information to the SDC, hoping that an alternative buyer would provide a chance for the SDF to sell oil to someone other than Assad.

Kahana and Barabandi “were friends somehow,” says Dizayee. “I don’t know how they got associated together.”

Barabandi did not explain to Reason how he knew Kahana. Asked by text message, Kahana called Reason by phone to offer some “friendly advice.”

“Everyone trying to be the king. Everyone trying to sell the oil. Everyone trying to be the next prime minister. Everyone kvetching about someone else. My advice? Stay out of it,” he said. “Let me tell you about Bassam. I’m not going [unintelligible] into detail. There was an incident when the Israelis came to me [unintelligible] and tell me, ‘Why are you helping Mouaz Moustafa?’ You know who is Mouaz Moustafa?”

Mouaz Moustafa is executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, which brought the late Sen. John McCain (R–Az.) to rebel-held parts of Syria in May 2013. Kahana claims to have funded Moustafa’s travels with McCain.

Kahana “was definitely in touch with Mouaz throughout the whole trip,” says Elizabeth O’Bagy, a former Syrian Emergency Task Force member who later joined McCain’s staff. “Mouaz kind of tolerated [Kahana] and was always very gracious, because [Kahana] was contributing money, which we can always use to help support refugees.”

“Moti played no role in the planning of the McCain trip to Syria,” Moustafa says. “He funded hotel rooms when he could, but not projects of” the Syrian Emergency Task Force.

Moustafa had worked with Barabandi in their pre-2013 effort to rescue Syrian dissidents.

At the same time that they were talking to Kahana about oil, Calhoun and Dizayee were in discussions with Ahed Al Hendi—a Syrian-American activist who had been imprisoned by the Assad regime—about working together on post-ISIS reconstruction projects.

Calhoun and Dizayee traveled to the Middle East on February 17 to meet Al Hendi. They were planning to enter northeast Syria through Iraqi Kurdistan. On February 24, Kahana asked Calhoun on WhatsApp for his ID in order to “make sure someone will be [expecting] you all.”

Calhoun sent back a photo of his passport, but added that Al Hendi was inviting him to join Ahmed’s presidential convoy: “if so we may be able to cancel the SDF escort.”

What happened after the group arrived in Syria is shrouded in mystery.

“I found from the officials there, from the SDC, that they [Barabandi and Kahana] are not welcome there,” Dizayee says cryptically.

According to Al Hendi and Calhoun, this is because the SDF detained and interrogated the group.

“[T]hey asked us to bar Moti from crossing the border from the [Iraqi] Kurdistan side,” Calhoun says, because Kahana “fabricated documents and was lying about the nature of his relationship with the SDC.”

“I met Moti in 2013,” Al Hendi says. “It took me [some time] until I knew that he is not a serious man.”

Kahana offered his own version of the story, claiming that Dizayee and Calhoun had needed Kahana’s contacts to get into Syria.

“They decided, fuck Moti, we can do it ourselves,” Kahana claims. “Ahed Al Hendi also wanted to do the oil. Maybe that’s why he’s trashing me.”

“We started our charity while we were [in Syria],” Calhoun says. “Although oil was definitely a component, the reason was that oil sales would generate roughly half a million dollars a day for reconstruction, filling the gaps that the international community weren’t filling.”

Dizayee and Al Hendi deny that their current reconstruction projects, which are funded by the United States Agency for International Development, involve oil.

“I got advice from my lawyer that before we start anything [with oil], we have to obtain an approval from the Treasury Department,” Dizayee says. “After [traveling to Syria] I stopped communication with [Kahana].”

Al Hendi claims that the SDC—which he has worked with since January 2018—rejected many legitimate businessmen’s proposals for the oil due to OFAC licensing problems, “especially when the mandate of the U.S. forces was to fight [ISIS], not to secure the oil.”

“The U.S should modify the [OFAC guidelines] on Syria and provide the SDC with exemption,” he adds.

‘A Very Troubled Region Full of Paranoid Actors’

Whatever the SDF had told Kahana in January and February, they were clearly tired of him by March.

Ahmed sent Kahana an image of the alleged letter from Omar via WhatsApp on March 1, along with a warning: “I ask that you stop using this document.”

“Good morning. I am confused. I obtained it a week ago. I don’t understand. Can I or can’t I buy the fuel? Sorry, I really don’t understand,” Kahana wrote back in Arabic.

Ahmed did not respond.

“Stop spreading [the letter] around….That’s how I took it,” Kahana says, explaining that he had shown the letter to potential investors. He also claims that he cannot read or write Arabic and was messaging Ahmed with the assistance of Google Translate.

In July, word of Kahana’s plan resurfaced in an unlikely place. Al-Akhbar, a Lebanese newspaper with anti-Israel views, published an alleged letter from Ahmed to Kahana, nearly identical to the one Kahana provided Reason.

Iranian state-run media jumped on the letter as proof that the “Washington-backed SDF” was conspiring with “enemies of Syria” to steal the country’s oil. At the time, SDC and SDF officials were concerned that the U.S. “maximum pressure” campaign could drag the Syrian Kurds into a war with Iran.

When the story broke, Kahana denied being involved in oil sales to Israel but took the opportunity to pitch Israeli media his plans for keeping the oil out of Iran and Assad’s hands.

Then, on October 8, Trump gave Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan the green light to send troops across the U.S.–controlled border of Syria and attack the SDF. The SDF turned to Assad for protection.

Facing domestic backlash, Trump decided to keep several hundred U.S. troops—along with a fresh new deployment of Bradley Fighting Vehicles—in the “oil region” of Syria. They would not stop Turkey, but they would keep the oil in U.S. hands.

Pentagon officials insisted to the media that the benefits from the oil would be “going to the SDF,” but they were short on details.

Kahana took the opportunity to pitch his scheme one last time. He showed his alleged letter from the SDC to the Los Angeles Times, which mentioned it in a November 4 story. Kahana then planned to hold a press conference in Israel on November 13 unveiling a partnership with the SDC.

“Due to the confusion that is being caused by Kahana’s rumor, the Syrian Democratic Council is committing effort to dispeling [sic] these false assertions,” Syrian Kurdish diplomat Sinam Mohamad wrote on November 11, adding that “there will be no relationship with Kahana in the future.”

The Jerusalem Press Club cancelled Kahana’s conference on November 12, citing the security situation in Israel.

“Just finished a meeting in ISRAEL few like the idea of cheaper oil for Gaza and west bank it will help their economy as I said win win and Iran and Assad lost ????,” Kahana wrote to Reason the next day.

“I understand [the SDC decided] to partner with Assad Iran and Russia,” Kahana said in a WhatsApp message a few days later, insisting that his relationship with the SDC was over. “Your dreams come crushing [sic] down when you tow the wrong path.”

“His allegations harmed the Kurds and SDC. Pro-Iran media portrayed the allegation as a real Israeli-Kurdish plot,” Al Hendi says. “The Kurds and SDC live in a very troubled region full of paranoid actors. Erdoğan, Assad, and even Putin take [the rumors about Kahana] seriously.”

Kahana himself acknowledges that “it’s not helping to show that [Ahmed] is talking to an Israeli” while the SDC negotiates with Assad and Russia.

For now, the feud between the SDC and Kahana appears to be over. But the Trump administration continues its own bizarre crusade for Syrian oil. American troops are risking their lives to keep Assad and Russia away from the oil fields, as the fighting between Turkey and the SDF rages on around them.

McGurk calls it a “Fort Apache scenario.” Syrian Kurdish officials insist that the deployment is unhelpful. And no one seems to know where the oil will go—only that the U.S. controls it.

“The oil is secure,” Trump said during a November 13 meeting with Erdoğan. “We left troops behind only for the oil.”

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WTI Extends Gains After Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw

WTI Extends Gains After Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw

Oil prices managed a modest gain today, after Friday’s big plunge (and yesterday’s modest gains) thanks to investors hope that the upcoming OPEC+ meeting that could lead to deeper supply cuts by some of the world’s biggest crude producers.

“With the OPEC meetings coming up, there are expectations that not only will there be an extension of the existing cuts but also a further production cut,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston.

Crude also bounced above its 50-day moving average – and the dollar was weaker – which both helped technically but all eyes are once again on inventories tonight…

API

  • Crude -3.72mm (-1.5mm exp) – biggest draw since September

  • Cushing

  • Gasoline

  • Distillates

After 5 straight weeks of builds, API reports that crude inventories drew down more than expected in the last week (-3.72mm vs -1.5mm exp)…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering around $56.20 ahead of the data, and rose modestly on the API-reported bigger than expected draw

NOTE the chaotic spike as headlines that OPEC+ did not discuss deeper cuts hit.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 12/03/2019 – 16:37

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2remcOq Tyler Durden

How To Discuss “Climate Change” With A ‘Woke’ Teenager

How To Discuss “Climate Change” With A ‘Woke’ Teenager

Via ArmstrongEconomics.com,

After our daughter of fifteen years of age was moved to tears by the speech of Greta Thunberg at the UN the other day, she became angry with our generation “who had been doing nothing for thirty years.”

So, we decided to help her prevent what the girl on TV announced of “massive eradication and the disappearance of entire ecosystems.”

We are now committed to give our daughter a future again, by doing our part to help cool the planet four degrees.

From now on she will go to school on a bicycle, because driving her by car costs fuel, and fuel puts emissions into the atmosphere. Of course it will be winter soon and then she will want to go by bus, but cycling through the freezing builds resilience.

Of course, she is now asking for an electric bicycle, but we have shown her the devastation caused to the areas of the planet as a result of mining for the extraction of Lithium and other minerals used to make batteries for electric bicycles, so she will be pedaling, or walking.

Which will not harm her, or the planet. We used to cycle and walk to school too.

Since the girl on TV demanded “we need to get rid of our dependency on fossil fuels” and our daughter agreed with her, we have disconnected the heat vent in her room. The temperature is now dropping to twelve degrees in the evening, and will drop below freezing in the winter, we have promised to buy her an extra sweater, hat, tights, gloves and a blanket.

For the same reason we have decided that from now on she only takes a cold shower. She will wash her clothes by hand, with a wooden washboard, because the washing machine is simply a power consumer and since the dryer uses natural gas, she will hang her clothes on the clothes line to dry, just like my parents and grandparents used to do.

Speaking of clothes, the ones that she currently has are all synthetic, so made from petroleum. Therefore on Monday, we will bring all her designer clothing to the secondhand shop.

We have found an eco store where the only clothing they sell is made from undyed and unbleached linen and jute. Also can’t have clothes made on wool, because the emissions from farting sheep are supposedly causing bad weather.

It shouldn’t matter that it looks good on her, or that she is going to be laughed at, dressing in colorless, bland clothes and without a wireless bra, but that is the price she has to pay for the benefit of The Climate.

Cotton is out of the question, as it comes from distant lands and pesticides are used for it. Very bad for the environment.
We just saw on her Instagram that she’s pretty angry with us. This was not our intention.

From now on, at 7 p.m. we will turn off the WiFi and we will only switch it on again the next day after dinner for two hours. In this way we will save on electricity, so she is not bothered by electro-stress and will be totally isolated from the outside world. This way, she can concentrate solely on her homework. At eleven o’clock in the evening we will pull the breaker to shut the power off to her room, so she knows that dark is really dark. That will save a lot of CO2.

She will no longer be participating in winter sports to ski lodges and resorts, nor will she be going on anymore vacations with us, because our vacation destinations are practically inaccessible by bicycle.

Since our daughter fully agrees with the girl on TV that the CO2 emissions and footprints of her great-grandparents are to blame for ‘killing our planet’, what all this simply means, is that she also has to live like her great-grandparents and they never had a holiday, a car or even a bicycle.

We haven’t talked about the carbon footprint of food yet.

Zero CO2 footprint means no meat, no fish and no poultry, but also no meat substitutes that are based on soy (after all, that grows in farmers fields, that use machinery to harvest the beans, trucks to transport to the processing plants, where more energy is used, then trucked to the packaging/canning plants, and trucked once again to the stores) and also no imported food, because that has a negative ecological effect. And absolutely no chocolate from Africa, no coffee from South America and no tea from Asia.

Only homegrown potatoes, vegetables and fruit that have been grown in local cold soil, because greenhouses run on boilers, piped in CO2 and artificial light. Apparently, these things are also bad for The Climate. We will teach her how to grow her own food.

Bread is still possible, but butter, milk, cheese and yogurt, cottage cheese and cream come from cows and they emit CO2. No more margarine and no oils will be used for the frying pan, because that fat is palm oil from plantations in Borneo where rain forests first grew.

No ice cream in the summer. No soft drinks and no energy drinks, as the bubbles are CO2.

We will also ban all plastic, because it comes from chemical factories. Everything made of steel and aluminum must also be removed. Have you ever seen the amount of energy a blast furnace consumes or an aluminum smelter? All bad for the climate!

We will replace her memory foam pillow top mattress, with a jute bag filled with straw, with a horse hair pillow.

And finally, she will no longer be using makeup, soap, shampoo, cream, lotion, conditioner, toothpaste and medication. Facewashers will all be linen, that she can wash by hand, with her wooden washboard, just like her female ancestors did before climate change made her angry at us for destroying her future.

In this way we will help her to do her part to prevent mass extinction, water levels rising and the disappearance of entire ecosystems.

If she truly believes she wants to walk the talk of the girl on TV, she will gladly accept and happily embrace her new way of life.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 12/03/2019 – 16:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2LkpK8S Tyler Durden

Tariff-Tantrum Sparks Worst Start To December For S&P Since 2008

Tariff-Tantrum Sparks Worst Start To December For S&P Since 2008

Trump’s trade-deal-related comments, combined with Pence and Ross confirmations that Dec 15th tariffs are still on the table unless a deal is struck imminently, sent the market’s expectations for a trade deal tumbling….

Source: Bloomberg

Sparking the worst start to December since 2008…

Source: Bloomberg

As US equities caught down to bond-land’s all-knowing levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Dow Transports are suffering most since the start of December (and Small Caps are relative outperformers, but still down hard)…

Source: Bloomberg

Trannies briefly broke below their 200DMA…

Notably, today’s bounce took the S&P futs back to VWAP (and tried to get back to the critical 3100 gamma level, after bouncing off the 3070/75 gamma-flip level)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cyclicals were monkeyhammered today…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets slid as Trump raises the threat of tariffs of EU exports…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX spiked to 17.99 intraday before fading back (and the short-end term structure inverted briefly intraday)…

Source: Bloomberg

Are stocks getting ready to catch down to credit?

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields plunged today (biggest daily drop since mid-August)…

Source: Bloomberg

With 30Y Yields tumbling to their lowest since early October

Source: Bloomberg

And the yield curve flattened dramatically (most since early August)…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar dived again to its lowest in a month…

Source: Bloomberg

And offshore yuan suffered its biggest drop in 2 months to 7 week lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos dumped and pumped intraday but remain lower on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold and Silver soared intraday and copper was clubbed like a baby seal…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI ended higher on OPEC production extension hopes…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver surged higher (best day in 2 months)…

And gold rallied back to a key resistance level (best day on over a month)…

 

Finally, this seemed appropriate…

Of course, one wonders if Trump’s delay comments might be a way to force The Fed back to its Dovish ways – and the market has added half a rate-cut to expectations in the last two days….

Source: Bloomberg

And the real QE4 continues to placate the repo markets – for now…

And don’t forget this is, by far, the longest bull market without a 20% correction in history…

Source: Goldman Sachs


Tyler Durden

Tue, 12/03/2019 – 16:01

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/34NZN9j Tyler Durden

“Giving Tuesday”

I’ve gotten dozens of pitches for donations from various nonprofits today, on the theory that today (following Thanksgiving Thursday, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday) is supposedly Giving Tuesday.

Is it really effective, though, for groups to send out their pitches on the same day that lots of other groups are doing it? Wouldn’t it make more sense for each to try to do it on some day when it doesn’t think the targets are already being asked by lots of other groups? I might well be missing something here—this isn’t my field of expertise, and it is the fundraisers’ field of expertise—so I’d love to hear others’ thoughts on this.

 

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“Giving Tuesday”

I’ve gotten dozens of pitches for donations from various nonprofits today, on the theory that today (following Thanksgiving Thursday, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday) is supposedly Giving Tuesday.

Is it really effective, though, for groups to send out their pitches on the same day that lots of other groups are doing it? Wouldn’t it make more sense for each to try to do it on some day when it doesn’t think the targets are already being asked by lots of other groups? I might well be missing something here—this isn’t my field of expertise, and it is the fundraisers’ field of expertise—so I’d love to hear others’ thoughts on this.

 

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Here’s What Happens When a Government Demands a ‘Fake News’ Label on Social Media

“Facebook is legally required to tell you that the Singapore government says this post has false information.”

That’s the wonderfully passive-aggressive note the social media giant has appended to Facebook shares within Singapore of an online news story by Alex Tan, a critic of Singapore’s government living in Australia. Facebook has added the note to comply with a law Singapore passed earlier in the year granting itself the authority to demand the social media platform “correct” what the government deems fake news—or else face huge penalties.

The law—the Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act (POFMA)—was passed in part due to Tan’s regular criticism of the government. Last November, Tan’s site, States Times Review, claimed that Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong was being investigated over financial corruption in Malaysia and that his country’s banks may be involved in money laundering. Singapore’s central bank objected to this characterization and demanded that Facebook remove a post promoting Tan’s story. Facebook refused to comply.

So Singapore passed POFMA and thus ordered Facebook to comply or else face hundreds of thousands of dollars in fines. The law even calls for possible imprisonment for violators.

On Nov. 23, Tan reported that a whistleblower was arrested in Singapore for revealing that a candidate supported by the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) was an evangelical Christian. Tan, without explaining why, suggested that the candidate’s history of attempting to convert people to Christianity marked her as a “religious extremist” trying “to remove the secular status of the country.” Singapore disputes that this arrest actually happened and has invoked POFMA to order Facebook to “correct” what it deems to be “fake news.” BuzzFeed reports that users in Singapore (and only in Singapore) are now seeing the Facebook note stating that the government says the story isn’t true.

Tan has acknowledged to BuzzFeed that he’s not sure the arrest happened. He wrote the story based on a tip-off. The Singapore government runs its own fact-checking site called Factually, which insists no such arrest happened and that the government didn’t order (as Tan claims) Facebook to shut down a page for a National University of Singapore student group. Facebook shut the page down for violating the site’s “authenticity” guidelines after the college’s student union said the page wasn’t official and was posting misleading articles.

Tan clearly has an axe to grind with the current government of Singapore and is calling for PAP’s removal from power and the arrest of Loong for abuse of his position. He may well have been a little quick to believe accusations of bad behavior on the part of Singapore officials.

But that’s actually what makes Singapore’s behavior all the more concerning. Tan is in exile, living in Australia, and is about to become a citizen there. He’s not returning to Singapore. He’s not terribly concerned about possible jail time. But he’s also small fish compared to the Singapore government (BuzzFeed notes that his site has 53,000 likes on Facebook). It is disturbing to see the government take such heavy-handed actions—including jail threats—to protect its grasp on political power. If the government is threatening Tan over something as small as whether somebody has been arrested or not, is there any sort of fact that would be beneath its observation and interference?

Outside of Singapore, it’s hard to look at the information presented here and determine what the “facts” actually are. The Singapore government and PAP have a lengthy history of overly sensitive responses to criticism. Loong has a history of suing critics who accuse him of misconduct. Tan, however, may actually be wrong about the facts in this one story. Would you be comfortable from this distance deciding who is right? Would you be willing to decide which version of the story should be “allowed” to be shared on social media?

The fight now unfolding in Singapore should give people like Sacha Baron Cohen doubts about granting any government—whether in the United States, United Kingdom, or elsewhere—the authority to force Facebook (or any online platform) to fact-check political speech. Such authority will not be used to help the public become more informed about what our politicians and governments are doing. It will inevitably be used to stifle criticism. In Singapore, we already have a real world example of how such power can be abused.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2LjahFT
via IFTTT

Here’s What Happens When a Government Demands a ‘Fake News’ Label on Social Media

“Facebook is legally required to tell you that the Singapore government says this post has false information.”

That’s the wonderfully passive-aggressive note the social media giant has appended to Facebook shares within Singapore of an online news story by Alex Tan, a critic of Singapore’s government living in Australia. Facebook has added the note to comply with a law Singapore passed earlier in the year granting itself the authority to demand the social media platform “correct” what the government deems fake news—or else face huge penalties.

The law—the Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act (POFMA)—was passed in part due to Tan’s regular criticism of the government. Last November, Tan’s site, States Times Review, claimed that Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong was being investigated over financial corruption in Malaysia and that his country’s banks may be involved in money laundering. Singapore’s central bank objected to this characterization and demanded that Facebook remove a post promoting Tan’s story. Facebook refused to comply.

So Singapore passed POFMA and thus ordered Facebook to comply or else face hundreds of thousands of dollars in fines. The law even calls for possible imprisonment for violators.

On Nov. 23, Tan reported that a whistleblower was arrested in Singapore for revealing that a candidate supported by the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) was an evangelical Christian. Tan, without explaining why, suggested that the candidate’s history of attempting to convert people to Christianity marked her as a “religious extremist” trying “to remove the secular status of the country.” Singapore disputes that this arrest actually happened and has invoked POFMA to order Facebook to “correct” what it deems to be “fake news.” BuzzFeed reports that users in Singapore (and only in Singapore) are now seeing the Facebook note stating that the government says the story isn’t true.

Tan has acknowledged to BuzzFeed that he’s not sure the arrest happened. He wrote the story based on a tip-off. The Singapore government runs its own fact-checking site called Factually, which insists no such arrest happened and that the government didn’t order (as Tan claims) Facebook to shut down a page for a National University of Singapore student group. Facebook shut the page down for violating the site’s “authenticity” guidelines after the college’s student union said the page wasn’t official and was posting misleading articles.

Tan clearly has an axe to grind with the current government of Singapore and is calling for PAP’s removal from power and the arrest of Loong for abuse of his position. He may well have been a little quick to believe accusations of bad behavior on the part of Singapore officials.

But that’s actually what makes Singapore’s behavior all the more concerning. Tan is in exile, living in Australia, and is about to become a citizen there. He’s not returning to Singapore. He’s not terribly concerned about possible jail time. But he’s also small fish compared to the Singapore government (BuzzFeed notes that his site has 53,000 likes on Facebook). It is disturbing to see the government take such heavy-handed actions—including jail threats—to protect its grasp on political power. If the government is threatening Tan over something as small as whether somebody has been arrested or not, is there any sort of fact that would be beneath its observation and interference?

Outside of Singapore, it’s hard to look at the information presented here and determine what the “facts” actually are. The Singapore government and PAP have a lengthy history of overly sensitive responses to criticism. Loong has a history of suing critics who accuse him of misconduct. Tan, however, may actually be wrong about the facts in this one story. Would you be comfortable from this distance deciding who is right? Would you be willing to decide which version of the story should be “allowed” to be shared on social media?

The fight now unfolding in Singapore should give people like Sacha Baron Cohen doubts about granting any government—whether in the United States, United Kingdom, or elsewhere—the authority to force Facebook (or any online platform) to fact-check political speech. Such authority will not be used to help the public become more informed about what our politicians and governments are doing. It will inevitably be used to stifle criticism. In Singapore, we already have a real world example of how such power can be abused.

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via IFTTT

Trump Hints At Use Of Military Force If North Korea Backtracks On Commitments

Trump Hints At Use Of Military Force If North Korea Backtracks On Commitments

President Trump hinted on Tuesday that the United States may be forced to use military force against North Korea if Pyongyang doesn’t temper their rhetoric, according to Yonhap.

Trump revived the threat of military action as negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang have stalled over how to match the North’s denuclearization steps with U.S. concessions.

But the U.S. president also emphasized his close personal relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, saying he hopes Kim will abide by his commitment to dismantle his country’s nuclear weapons program. –Yonhap

After Trump said Kim Jong Un “likes sending rockets up, doesn’t he?” adding “That’s why I call him Rocket Man,” Trump told reporters at this week’s NATO gathering:

“Now we have the most powerful military we’ve ever had and we’re by far the most powerful country in the world,” adding “And, hopefully, we don’t have to use it, but if we do, we’ll use it. If we have to, we’ll do it.”

In 2017, Trump threatened to “totally destroy” the communist regime, before he and Kim conducted several summits aimed at salvaging the increasingly contentious relationship between the two nations.

Earlier Tuesday, North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister Ri Thae-song urged the United States increase efforts to mend fences.

Since the collapse of Trump and Kim’s second summit in Vietnam in February, the North has warned that it will seek a “new way” if the U.S. fails to come up with an acceptable proposal by the year-end.

The DPRK has done its utmost with maximum perseverance not to backtrack from the important steps it has taken on its own initiative,” Ri said, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. He was apparently alluding to the North’s suspension of nuclear and long-range missile tests since 2017.

“What is left to be done now is the U.S. option and it is entirely up to the U.S. what Christmas gift it will select to get,” Ri continued, in an apparent warning that unless the U.S. comes up with a new offer this month, Pyongyang could restart its nuclear weapons and long-range missile tests. –Yonhap

North Korea has conducted a series of short-range ballistic missile tests since May – with some experts suggesting they are covertly advancing their weapons technology while simultaneously pressuring the Trump administration to grant sanctions relief and security guarantees in exchange for partial denuclearization.

The most recent test involved a super-large multiple rocket launcher.

“My relationship with Kim Jong-un is really good, but that doesn’t mean he won’t abide by the agreement we signed,” said Trump. “You have to understand. You have to go and look at the first agreement that we signed. It said he will denuclearize. That’s what it said. I hope he lives up to the agreement, but we’re going to find out.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 12/03/2019 – 15:45

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