Hold The Champagne Corks

Hold The Champagne Corks

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Positive Chinese PMI data (which we are sceptical of representing the true state of the economy) and a potential future fiscal shift in Germany (which our rates strategy team do not see heralding upwards pressure on Bund yields) both saw global bond yields up markedly yesterday, even when local data tanked, as in Australia. That lasted right the way through to a series of blows that saw some of the sting come out of bonds (10-year US Treasuries closed up 6bp having been as high as +10bp), but equities still started December in poor form.

First, China countered the US HKHRDA legislation with a banning on US naval vessels making shore-leave in Hong Kong, and banned five US-based NGOs, including Human Rights Watch and Freedom House, from the Special Administrative Region “for inciting separatist activities”. While a relatively mild response in practical terms, the bilateral atmosphere is further strained.

Second, the US ISM data tanked, dropping to a recessionary 48.1 with new orders down to the August low of 47.2 and employment at 46.6. Recall that with US imports from the world ex-China up y/y and Chinese imports from the world ex-US down in most cases, a slight pick-up in China, even if true, is more than outweighed by a down-turn in the US.

Third, US President Trump re-imposed 15% steel and aluminium tariffs on both Brazil and Argentina, claiming that they had both allowed their currencies to depreciate too much. The direct economic effects of that move are limited on all fronts – but at the same time the message is that excess FX weakness vs. the USD will not go unanswered by the White House, even when national security is not being blamed. Factor that in when you think what is bound to happen to CNY at some point if China carries on down its present growth and debt path: yesterday was interesting in that CNY slipped to around 7.04 despite the good Chinese data,…yet the broad DXY saw the USD drop markedly too and JPY gain. In other words, stocks down, bonds down, USD down and CNY down, and risk-off JPY up. Merry Xmas!

Fourth, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross (who for those who recall these things, always looks like John Gielgud’s Spitting Image puppet, having to be woken with a stick at the start of each sketch) stated that Trump is prepared to levy more duties on China if the phase one trade deal is not agreed. That gives us what Ross called “a logical deadline” of 15 December unless things move or are moved. Trump himself stated “The Chinese want to make a deal, we’ll see what happens.” Do they, now Bloomberg suddenly says that China is once again ‘winning the trade war’? (I wish the authors of these puff piece would go to sleep in a corner like John Gielgud.) CNY and CNH will be watching closely, of course, and market chatter is if 15% tariffs go up, then both crosses will be at 7.15 shortly afterwards – and from there….well, let’s see.

Fifth, the US stated it will impose USD2.4bn of 100% tariffs on French products, including champagne and *cheese*, in response to France’s imposition of a digital tax on US tech giants. These measures will happily not take place until well after 1 January, giving us all a chance to enjoy New Year first, but this will of course not go down well in La Belle France. What fun the NATO 70th birthday bash in London today and tomorrow will be, as we noted yesterday: it is likely to have as many fireworks as October’s 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China did – but for all the wrong reasons.

Indeed, all the points above, perhaps the market will now hold the champagne corks that it has been popping for months now in expectation that all is well and yields should be going up, not down?

Elsewhere, we heard ECB President Lagarde testify to the EU parliament, and plead for time to learn German and central-bank speech,….and how to say Green New Deal (or at least Green Bonds) in German given as part of a review of ECB policy it was suggested that climate change will be linked to QE.

And over in the US, the Republicans are reportedly set to release a rebuttal of impeachment charges against President Trump even before they are levelled: expect the Democrats to conclude the complete opposite, and they have the numbers to impeach; but hold the champagne yet again, as it’s and then it’s off to the Senate, where the Republicans have the numbers, and then to the 2020 election, where many talking heads, and the market, are still saying Trump has the numbers.

And this morning starts on the kind of note the Chinese PMI data singularly fail to suggest should be happening: two more bond defaults after non-payment by the close yesterday, totalling around USD500m, following another last week. With the surge in China’s debt in recent years, and the ongoing structural slowdown in growth, this is just the tip of the iceberg.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 12/03/2019 – 07:16

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Overview of Oral Arguments in NYS Rifle and Pistol Association v. City of New York

Yesterday, the Supreme Court heard oral argument in NYS Rifle and Pistol Association v. City of New York. Certiorari was granted in February 2019. After the grant, New York City repealed the challenged provisions of the premise license law. Subsequently, New York State enacted a law that made it impossible for New York City to reenact the challenged provisions. I discuss the background of this case in a Federalist Society SCOTUSBrief video.

Prior to oral argument, I predicted that the Supreme Court would dismiss the case as moot. My prediction has not changed after reading the transcript.

No “Collateral Consequences”

Chief Justice Roberts will likely cast the deciding vote. He did not ask any questions of Paul Clement, who represented the plaintiffs, or of Deputy Solicitor General Jeff Wall. He asked a few questions of Richard Dearing, who represented New York City.

First, Roberts asked if “there [is] any way in which any violation” of the repealed ordinance in the past “could prejudice a gun owner” in the future? Dearing replied, “Not that I can think of. The city is committed to to closing the book on that old rule and we’re not going to take it into effect.” Second, Roberts followed up, and asked, “Is there any way in which a finding of mootness would prejudice further options available to the Petitioners in this case, for example, seeking damages?” Dearing didn’t think so. He stated that the Plaintiffs “never made any allegations related to damages” prior to the grant of certiorari. Dearing also stated that the Plaintiffs had never asserted that “past violations” could prejudice them in the future.

At that point, Justice Gorsuch interjected. He asked if there would be any “collateral consequences to anyone for violating the city’s prior ban, any kind of collateral consequences.” Dearing replied that there wouldn’t be.

Chief Justice Roberts asked one final question. Would anyone be “prejudiced in any way, for example, with respect to qualifying for a  premises license under the new law” based on violating the old law.” That is, would violating the old law justify the denial of a new license?  Dearing replied that no would be prejudiced. Roberts asked no further questions.

This representation reminded me of a similar colloquy from NFIB v. Sebelius. Solicitor General Verrilli represented that there were no “collateral consequences” for going uninsured. From pp. 179-180 of Unprecedented:

But if there was no mandate, what would happen if a person failed to purchase insurance? Justice Sotomayor asked the solicitor general whether there was any “collateral consequence for the failure to buy” health insurance—that is, would there be any criminal penalties for not buying insurance? The solicitor general responded, emphatically, “No.” The only consequence would be that the person would have to pay a tax. . . .

Verrilli then offered an important “representation” to the Court on how the Obama administration viewed the law. This representation proved pivotal. The “only consequence” of not having health insurance was the “tax penalty.” Verrilli noted that the government “made a representation, and it was a carefully made representation, in our brief that it is the interpretation of the agencies charged with interpreting this statute, the Treasury Department and the Department of Health and Human Services, that there is no other consequence apart from the tax penalty.” In other words, there was no mandate or legal requirement to buy insurance, despite the statute stating that there was such a requirement.

Roberts’s saving construction in NFIB relied on this representation:

While the individual mandate clearly aims to induce the purchase of health insurance, it need not be read to declare that failing to do so is unlawful. Neither the Act nor any other law attaches negative legal consequences to not buying health insurance, beyond requiring a payment to the IRS. The Government agrees with that reading, confirming that if someone chooses to pay rather than obtain health insurance, they have fully complied with the law. Brief for United States 60–61; Tr. of Oral Arg. 49–50 (Mar. 26,2012).

I think New York persuaded the Chief that there are no possible “collateral consequences” for past violations, and this controversy is no longer live. Justices Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan seemed to agree with New York. There are at least five votes for this position. What about the newest member of the Court? Justice Kavanaugh was silent. He did not say a word.

DIG or Decide?

If a majority of the Court agrees that the case is moot, there are two options going forward. First, the Court could simply dismiss the petition as improvidently granted at the December 6, 2019 conference. (This move is known as a DIG.) We would learn of the dismissal with the next release of orders, probably on December 9, 2019. These sorts of dismissals are unsigned. Justices can register their dissents from the DIG.

The upshot of this approach is that the Court could add another Second Amendment case to its docket, with an argument scheduled for March or April. Indeed, there are many gun cases that are fully briefed, that have been hanging in SCOTUS purgatory for months. There was obviously some appetite to weigh in on the Second Amendment, after nearly a decade of silence following McDonald v. Chicago. A quick DIG would allow the Justices to address another live case now.

Second, the Court could issue a signed opinion to explain why the controversy is moot. That decision would take some time to prepare, and would likely occasion a written dissent. The Court’s mootness doctrine is quite muddled. Perhaps the Court could clean up the doctrine. However, this case is a terrible vehicle. The facts of this case are so unique. I’m not sure these specific conditions–the City repealed the ordinance, and the State prevented its re-enactment–would ever recur.

Mooting the Case

I can see one or more possible dissents. Justice Gorsuch seemed to accept Dearing’s representation about the lack of collateral consequences. But on three occasions, he asked if there was some “delta” (that is, difference) between the relief the plaintiffs currently have, and the relief that could be awarded with a permanent injunction. Gorsuch may go along with the Chief here. Though, he was far more cynical about New York’s post-certiorari strategy. He chastised the City’s “herculean, late-breaking efforts to moot the case.” Clement twice used the phrase “post-certiorari maneuvers.” Wall used the term “post-grant maneuvering.”

Justice Alito was, by far, the most critical of New York’s strategy. He suggested that it is unfair to hold the Plaintiffs to a precise pleading standard, and demand “specific allegations in the complaint to defeat a claim of mootness that the plaintiffs had no reason whatsoever to anticipate until after we granted certiorari and the city decided to try to moot this case.” He added “how could any plaintiff possibly have anticipated” they would need to seek damages “until you took the quite extraordinary step of trying to moot the case after we granted review?

Dearing replied, that the New York “state legislature has passed a new State law here,” not New York City. Alito interjected, “Yeah. And did the city have nothing to do with the enactment of that law?” Dearing said that the City “supported the law,” but there was nothing nefarious about this support. The new law was “a good thing, not a bad one. The government should respond to litigation, should assess its laws or other -or political subdivisions’ laws when they are challenged.” Dearing made a similar point earlier: “it’s a good thing and not a cause for concern when the government responds to litigation by resolving matters through the democratic process.” Justice Breyer likewise found New York’s strategy was praiseworthy: “I don’t think it’s bad when people who have an argument settle their argument.”

Text and History

There were a few colloquies about the merits. Paul Clement made a broader point of how the lower courts have approached the Second Amendment. He explained that the lower-courts have only used history to uphold laws; not to declare them unconstitutional:

The way the lower courts have interpreted Heller is like text, history, and tradition is a one-way ratchet.

If text, history, and tradition sort of allow this practice, then they’ll uphold the law. But if text, history, and tradition are to the contrary, then the courts proceed to a watered-down form of scrutiny that’s heightened in name only.

And I think this Court should reaffirm that text, history, and tradition essentially is the test and can be administered in a way that provides real protection for Second Amendment rights.

Jeff Wall presented a similar argument:

If I could turn to the merits for just a minute, I think all that the Petitioners are asking for, and it’s a fairly modest ask, is for the Court to reiterate what it said in Heller, that the lower courts have been correct in starting with text and history and tradition, but they have created, as Mr. Clement said, this sort of asymmetry where they find that history and tradition can give a thumbs up to a law but not a thumbs down.

Justice Sotomayor was extremely skeptical about the Plaintiff’s historical-based approach. She stated that the Court does not use such a framework in the First Amendment context:

In what other area, constitutional area, the First Amendment in particular, have we decided any case based solely on text, history, and tradition?

This seems sort of a made-up new standard. And I thought Heller was very careful to say we don’t do that. We treat it like any other constitutional provision. And if I analogize this to the First Amendment, which is what Heller suggested we should do, this seems to me to be a time, place, and manner restriction. It may not pass any of the standards of scrutiny, but, if you’re looking at a First Amendment right to speak, it’s never absolute. There are some words that are not protected. We’re going to have a different fight about that at some point. Or there are some weapons that are not protected, just like there might be some words that are not protected.

The emphasized sentences look like an aside about future battles to come. We can speculate about what “words” she is talking about. Justice Sotomayor’s Iancu v. Brunetti dissent suggested that “one particularly egregious racial epithet” should not be protected by the First Amendment.

She continued:

We know under the First Amendment that there are time, place, and manner restrictions that a government can impose on the basis of safety and other things. On the basis of safety, you can’t have a demonstration at will. You need a permit, and you have to have certain equipment and certain protections and certain things.

So, if I treat it in that way, we might have a fight about whether text, history, and tradition permits a time, manner, and place restriction of this type, but I don’t know why that’s a free-standing test.

Jeff Wall replied:

I understand the requirement that you carry the gun unloaded or that you do it in a locked container. But a ban is not a time, place, or manner restriction. And in determining which category it falls into and what’s permissible, Heller said you start with text, history, and tradition.

And the Court commonly does that, even under the First Amendment with respect to categories, the Fourth Amendment for a search, the Seventh Amendment for the jury trial right. Heller just says you start here. And starting here, I think this is a straightforward case. There is no historical analogue and a contrary tradition.

Scrutiny

Justice Alito asked Dearing how the Court should review gun control laws.

JUSTICE ALITO: Well, how should -what methodology should the courts use in approaching Second Amendment questions?

If they conclude that text and history protect a –the text and history of the Second Amendment protect a particular activity, is that the end of the question or do they then go on and apply some level of scrutiny?

Dearing replied that history plays some role in the inquiry:

MR. DEARING: I think –I think, first, we look –we look to history and determine whether history answers the question one way or the other, whether it’s constitutional or unconstitutional. . . .And in a significant number of cases, history will not speak with one voice or conclusively on that subject and then the right step is to move on to an assessment of justification and fit under a means and scrutiny approach.

Justice Alito also seemed to suggest that the now-repealed law was completely irrational, because it never actually promoted public safety:

JUSTICE ALITO: Mr. Dearing, are the –are people in New York less safe now as a result of the enactment of the new city and state laws than they were before?

MR. DEARING: We –we –no, I don’t think so. We made a judgment expressed by our police commissioner that –that it was consistent with public safety to repeal the prior rule and to move forward without it.

JUSTICE ALITO: Well, if they’re not less safe, then what possible justification could there have been for the old rule, which you have abandoned? …

JUSTICE ALITO: So you think the Second Amendment permits the imposition of a restriction that has no public safety benefit?

I don’t expect the Court to address the merits. Justice Breyer, if he is so inclined, may perpetually dissent from Heller. At one point, Dearing described Heller. Breyer said that he still did not agree:

MR. DEARING: If history conclusively shows that the restriction is impermissible, then I –I think –as in Heller, Heller is an example of that phenomenon. Heller determined without consulting means and scrutiny, that the –that the law in question sort of went to the core of and destroyed, in essence, the -the –the –the Second Amendment right and, therefore, was –and more severe than any -any historical, any analogous or prior law and its degree of burden on the Second Amendment –

JUSTICE BREYER: No –

MR. DEARING: –right.

JUSTICE BREYER: –you’re supposed to do there, because you’re correctly stating the views of some judges.

MR. DEARING: Right.

JUSTICE BREYER: And some judges had an opposite view.

MR. DEARING: I’m aware –I’m aware of that, that’s correct.

(Laughter.)

Staten Island

My hometown of Staten Island was also referenced several times:

JUSTICE ALITO: Why will they have to work harder? Somebody who lives in midtown is stopped and –with a gun and the officer says, where are you going? I’m going to a firing range in Jersey City, which is right across the river.

That’s tougher than, I’m going to a firing range in Staten Island. And I think three of your seven ranges are in Staten Island; am I right?

MR. DEARING: Two –two are in Staten Island. JUSTICE ALITO: Two are in Staten Island?

MR. DEARING: I think it is a little bit tougher but of course the –the person may not say Jersey City either.

JUSTICE ALITO: All right. How about somebody who lives in the north Bronx says, I’m going across the border to Westchester County. That’s tougher for you to –to look into than,

yes, I’m going all the way to Staten Island?

MR. DEARING: Well, still the –still what happens in Staten Island is within the Police Department’s jurisdiction.

Growing up, I was not even aware Staten Island had any shooting ranges.

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Young Americans Oppose Mandatory National Service, Military or Otherwise

Are Americans eager to be forced to surrender labor and years of their lives to work on government projects? Not so much, a recent survey reveals. When asked about a reinstated draft, roughly a third of of those in the age range most likely to be affected say they would resist—and their opposition extends beyond military conscription to all sorts of mandatory service.

Young Americans are particularly unthrilled at the prospect of a reinstated draft. Thirty-one percent of “male Millennials say that they would ‘try to avoid being conscripted into the armed forces,'” the polling firm YouGov reported last week. Just as interesting, only 23 percent of male millennials said they would not try to avoid conscription (other respondents answered “don’t know” or “not applicable”).

Thirty-two percent of female millennials also said they would try to avoid conscription, while only 15 percent said they would not.

An even higher percentage of male respondents in the post-millennial Gen Z said they would try to avoid conscription, but their representation in the survey was too small to be considered representative.

Opposition to conscription unsurprisingly dropped among older generations, who are almost certainly beyond draft age.

“Wait a minute!” national service advocates complain. “We never said it had to be the military! It could be all sorts of peaceful government busywork.”

South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg—whose presidential campaign recently reached double-digit support nationally for the first time, after first showing signs of life in Iowa polls—specifically calls for the creation of new agencies, including a Community Health Corps, Intergenerational Corps, and Climate Corps, to facilitate non-military forms of national service. On his website, the Navy veteran emphasizes “a universal, national expectation of service for all 4 million high school graduates every year, such that the first question asked of every college freshman or new hire is: ‘where did you serve?'”

Back in April, Buttegieg told MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow that he wanted “to make it, if not legally obligatory but certainly a social norm, that anybody after they’re 18 spends a year in national service.”

Coy phrases like “if not legally obligatory” make it unclear as to whether that “universal, national expectation of service” will be enforced by government or by magic. (Fellow Democratic hopeful John Delaney, who is allegedly still in the race, makes no bones about the “mandatory” nature of the national service he favors.) In a large, diverse, and factionalized country, it’s difficult to imagine how you arrive at “universal” anything without (perhaps conscripted) enforcers.

Unfortunately for Buttigieg and other advocates of national service, the people who would be drafted into those non-military “service opportunities” don’t seem to like them better.

“Almost half (49%) of Americans favor requiring young men and women to give a year of service to the nation,” Gallup reported in 2017. “But a majority (57%) of the group most likely to be affected—those under the age of 30—oppose the idea.”

An earlier survey found similar results.

“While solid support exists for voluntary service, 71 percent say they would oppose a system of national service if it were mandatory,” Hart Research reported in 2013. “More than half (52 percent) are strongly opposed to the idea. Younger voters, age 18 to 39, most strongly oppose a mandatory system (59 percent), compared with 42 percent of voters over 65.”

Basically, if you want enthusiastic support for compelled labor, ask those who won’t have to do it. The folks who will be subject to involuntary servitude are largely resentful of the idea of compulsory national service. Any why wouldn’t people oppose compelled service, no matter how well-intentioned, and even if it somehow rises above the level of inefficient busywork that inevitably accompanies every large-scale government project? After all, the core component of these schemes of mandatory national service is to take away the participants’ freedom to choose.

“What is freedom? It is the right to choose one’s own employment. Certainly it means that, if it means anything,” Frederick Douglass, the 19th century escaped slave, writer, and reformer responded to the U.S. Army’s Civil War-era policy in Louisiana of extracting one year of forced (albeit compensated) agricultural labor from freedmen on behalf of the federal government. “And when any individual or combination of individuals, undertakes to decide for any man when he shall work, where he shall work, at what he shall work, and for what he shall work, he or they practically reduce him to slavery.”

It wasn’t just life-long chattel slavery that Douglass opposed, it was compulsion that deprived people of their right to choose where and how to work.

Plenty of the people that Pete Buttigieg and other oh-so-concerned politicians and pundits would conscript into government service obviously agree with Douglass. In large numbers, they say they would resist a military draft. But they also oppose any sort of compelled labor on behalf of the government (or anybody else, we can assume).

Maybe Pete Buttigieg really is the less-awful presidential candidate when compared to a host of unimpressive rivals. But if he wants to convince voters that he’s the guy they should put in the White House, he should drop his unpopular scheme to conscript the country into his pet projects.

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Trump Unloads On “Very Nasty” Macron, Insists France “Is Not Doing Well Economically At All”

Trump Unloads On “Very Nasty” Macron, Insists France “Is Not Doing Well Economically At All”

With his allies up in arms over his latest tariff threats directed at France, President Trump landed in London early Tuesday, accompanied by First Lady Melania Trump, for a two-day summit marking the 70th anniversary of the military alliance’s birth. Trump is notorious for blaming America’s NATO partners for not paying their fair share when it comes to financing the military alliance.

Sitting alongside NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg at Winfield House in London, Trump delivered a rambling address that marked the beginning of the summit, bragging about his progress with China, and claiming that the US is doing ‘very well’ when it comes to the still-unsigned ‘Phase One’ trade agreement.

There was talk of arms control progress, with Trump insisting that “Russia wants to do something badly and so do we.”

During previous administrations, summits like this one would have been a snoozefest. But President Trump has spiced up several NATO summits by starting drama with one or more of his fellow Nato leaders.

Justin Trudeau and Angela Merkel have been favorite targets of his in the past; but Trump is focusing his ire on French President Emmanuel Macron.

The problem is that Macron apparently told The Economist Magazine that Nato was experiencing “brain death,” and warned that members of the alliance could no longer rely on the US.

Unsurprisingly, Trump took umbrage at this, and dedicated a few minutes of his opening press conference to trashing Macron, accusing him of being “very, very nasty” and that it was “very insulting” for the French president to label Nato “brain dead.”

Watch a clip of Trump’s remarks below:

Trump added that relations between the US and European Nato members were not causing any divide, except with France. He could even envision France ‘breaking’ away from the military alliance.

“I do see France breaking off. I’m looking at him and I’m saying he [Macron] needs protection more than anybody and I see him breaking off, so I’m a little surprised at that,” Trump said.

Returning to the tariffs once more, Trump slammed France for trying to raise money via a “digital tax” levy on US tech giants like Facebook and Google.

“They are starting to tax other people’s products, so we are going to tax them,” Trump said

He also took a swipe a France’s economy, with its high unemployment rate, claiming that the country was “not doing well economically at all.” There’s some truth to that: The Q3 unemployment rate climbed o 8.6%.

Of course, some of the most scathing criticism of Nato has come from President Trump, with the president repeatedly declaring the alliance obsolete.

The president also made some comments about the possibility of delaying notifications.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 12/03/2019 – 06:30

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How To Reverse an Opioid Overdose

The overdose-reversal drug naloxone is available without a prescription at most CVS and Walgreens pharmacies. It’s legal to carry it, and having some on hand could help you save a life.

Naloxone comes in two formulations: an intramuscular injector and a nasal spray. That means reversing an overdose is as simple as jabbing a needle into someone’s arm, thigh, or buttocks or squirting the drug up the person’s nose.

Signs of an overdose include nonresponsiveness, cold and clammy skin, and shallow or stopped breathing.

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How To Reverse an Opioid Overdose

The overdose-reversal drug naloxone is available without a prescription at most CVS and Walgreens pharmacies. It’s legal to carry it, and having some on hand could help you save a life.

Naloxone comes in two formulations: an intramuscular injector and a nasal spray. That means reversing an overdose is as simple as jabbing a needle into someone’s arm, thigh, or buttocks or squirting the drug up the person’s nose.

Signs of an overdose include nonresponsiveness, cold and clammy skin, and shallow or stopped breathing.

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Futures Tumble After Trump Says “Better To Wait Until After The Election” For China Trade Deal

Futures Tumble After Trump Says “Better To Wait Until After The Election” For China Trade Deal

On Tuesday morning, President Trump tells reporters in London that his administration is progressing “very well with China right now” in formulating a trade deal. Futures jump on the news then fade it hard. Then moments later, he spills the beans of how there’s actually no trade deal in sight. 

  • 03-Dec-2019 05:09:09 AM – TRUMP SAYS WE ARE DOING VERY WELL WITH CHINA RIGHT NOW
  • 03-Dec-2019 05:09:18 AM – TRUMP SAYS CHINA TRADE DEAL IS DEPENDENT ON WHETHER I WANT TO MAKE IT
  • 03-Dec-2019 05:09:47 AM – TRUMP SAYS I HAVE NO DEADLINE ON TRADE

Equity futures in Europe and the US slide after Trump says, “better to wait until after the election for the China trade deal. 

  • 03-Dec-2019 05:10:00 AM – TRUMP SAYS PROBABLY BETTER TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION FOR THE CHINA DEAL
  • 03-Dec-2019 05:10:10 AM – TRUMP SAYS WE WILL SEE WHETHER THE CHINA DEAL IS GOING TO BE RIGHT
  • 03-Dec-2019 05:10:23 AM – TRUMP SAYS I HAVE NO DEADLINE ON CHINA DEAL AND IT MIGHT BE BETTER TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER NOVEMBER 2020 ELECTION

E mini S&P500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 slide on the news that a trade deal could occur after the 2020 election. 

E mini S&P500 testing 20ema on the daily timeframe. 


Tyler Durden

Tue, 12/03/2019 – 05:32

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Britain’s First Transgender Couple to Allow Their 5-Year-Old Child To Begin Transition

Britain’s First Transgender Couple to Allow Their 5-Year-Old Child To Begin Transition

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Britain’s first transgender couple have stoked controversy by revealing that they will allow their 5-year-old child to also begin gender transition.

Jody, 21, and Greg Rogers, 27, from Glasgow in Scotland went public with the announcement that their son Jayden has begun transitioning into a girl.

The couple claimed that they were subjected to abuse since making the announcement and that they had also been reported to social services.

The couple denied claims they had encouraged the transition, with Greg Rogers telling the Daily Record, “We’ve had people saying we’re using Jayden for attention and that she just wants to be a girl because I changed sex…It’s ridiculous. Jayden knows nothing about my past. She just knows me as dad.”

According to the couple, Jayden is adamant he is a girl and loves dressing up as Princess Anna from the Disney film Frozen.

“They say it’s cruel we let her wear a dress but is it not more cruel to do nothing when you’ve got a kid who’s so adamant she’s a girl she’s ripping her hair off and banging her head off the walls?” said Rogers.

Earlier this year, it was revealed that five people working at Britain’s only NHS transgender clinic had quit after children as young as three were being through unnecessary gender reassignment treatment.

“Referrals to the clinic risen in recent years, with 94 in 2010, rising to 2,519 by last year, with the youngest patient aged just three,” reported the Daily Mail.

You can’t stop progress!

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Tyler Durden

Tue, 12/03/2019 – 05:00

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UK Retail Sales Collapse In November By Most On Record

UK Retail Sales Collapse In November By Most On Record

Retail sales in Britain crashed by 4.9% YoY (on a like-for-like basis) in November – the biggest drop in the 25 year history of The British Retail Consortium’s reporting…

Source: Bloomberg

However, as Paul Martin, Partner, UK Head of Retail, KPMG, notes:

At first glance, November’s decline in like-for-like retail sales of -4.9% will leave retailers reaching for the smelling salts, but context is key. If adjusted for the later timing of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, sales are more likely to have increased by a more palatable 0.4% like-for-like.”

But added that:

“The key question will be whether demand can rebound enough to make up for several disappointing months of trading this year.”

Susan Barratt, CEO, IGD, notes that “Food and grocery sales saw a continued slowdown in November and it is unclear if it will pick back up as the festive season approaches…”

Shoppers’ financial confidence remains subdued, with a slight improvement recently as the focus moves away from Brexit to Christmas.”

Finally, Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, warned that:

If the next Government wishes to see retail spending remain healthy in 2020 it is essential they clarify our future relationship with the EU as soon as possible. If consumers are to avoid price rises, and reduced availability, politicians must put frictionless, tariff-free trade at the top of their new agenda. “

Retailers have their foot to the floor during this critical trading period, but it won’t be until Christmas trading reports land in January that we’ll truly know whether their strategies have proved fruitful.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 12/03/2019 – 04:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/33KU2ry Tyler Durden