Month: February 2020

Update: Fears that the coronavirus outbreak will be officially declared a global pandemic have grown after the first case was confirmed in sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria’s health ministry said the case was found in Lagos, one of Africa’s biggest cities, with a population of 20 million people.

Africa has recorded only two cases up to now, one in Algeria and one in Egypt.

The spread of contagion to countries with poor public health systems has alarmed the World Health Organization, which said it could “get out of control”.

*  *  *

Via Golem XIV’s blog,

Surely it is time to stop pretending that in all of Africa there are only three cases of Coronavirus (1 in each of Algeria, Egypt, and Nigeria)?  Everything we now know about the virus makes this virtually impossible to believe.

We know that despite alarm being expressed by other African nations, Ethiopia has continued to keep open its air link to China via Bole International airport. The Ethiopian authorities have justified their decision by quoting the WHO president’s ‘expert advice’ that travel bans were not going to stop the virus and therefore were not recommended. As reported by Global Research,

… he made the inexplicable statement that other countries were not warranted to ban air travel to China as precaution. He declared,” It’s not a time for judgment… This is a time for solidarity, not stigma,” refusing to recommend any international restrictions on travel or trade with China.

This seems very odd and ill-advised ‘expert advice’ when at the same time the official line is that while we may not be able to stop the spread of the virus we should strive to slow it down to give us as much time as possible to look for treatments and a vaccine.

What else do we know? Well we can see from recent events in Italy that the virus spreads very fast before anyone is likely to show any symptoms. We also know how easy it is for over-worked doctors to not pay enough attention to symptoms which on their own  are not all that serious to begin with and could be the result of the common cold or ordinary strains of flu.  The Corona virus does not present with the kind of dramatic symptoms that make it easy to spot.

We also know that the two things about this virus which makes it very dangerous and almost impossible to stop. The first is the very  long, unusually long, suspiciously long latency period when someone can carry the virus and be highly infectious without showing any symptoms at all. The second is that Covid19 is easily transmitted and very highly infectious.

Despite having all the advantages of wealth and warning none of the best prepared, best off countries have been able to stop its spread. Is it believable that the Coronavirus is not already spreading in African countries?

If Coronavirus is spreading in Africa then everyday we hear no reports of it, is another day it is spreading unreported and untreated. Is this alarmist?  I certainly hope so but common sense tells me its just tragically very likely.

The latency period before someone shows symptoms means that it is quite possible for someone to be carrying the virus but show no signs whatever when they arrive at the airport and are screened. If they did have the virus then given its infectivity it is highly probable that other passengers being in close contact in a sealed environment like a jet for many hours are going to be infected. None of them will show any symptoms when screened. How many of them will travel on to other airports, other cities other towns where there are fewer if any facilities for testing?

Could this scenario happen? Well  we already have the case of a Chinese worker to flew into Kenya, who was not stopped or quarantined at the airport and travelled on to a road construction site in Kitui county outside Nairobi. Why was he not stopped? Well for the perfectly good reason that he was not showing any symptoms.  The case came to light because when the man arrived at the construction site,

…road workers contracted by Sinohydro Corporation reported a case of a visibly sick Chinese national in their construction camp.

The Kenyan article went on to say that his colleagues were told to isolate him and observe him but not to come into contact with him.

The case made the papers in Kenya because when local police arrived at the camp they were denied admission by the Chinese company Sinohydro Corporation. It was also reported in the Kenyan press that a local medical team were also denied access.

Medics denied entry to Sinohydro Mutomo camp

Kitui County Chief Officer for Health Richard Muthoka confirmed that his medical team was also denied entry to the camp.

“Our medical team wasn’t allowed to access the Chinese camp in Mutomo but we have taken the necessary measures to swiftly establish what is happening and ensure all people working and mingling with the foreigners are safe,” Dr Muthoka stated.

Its interesting and important to note that an article in the ChinaDaily refuted the story the very same day. According to the Chinese article the man was not sick and his quarantine was routine. Which may well be true.

All this was 10 days ago. There has been no update that I can find. But whether the man was carrying the virus and was sick or whether it was all routine precaution is not really the point. Given the long latency of the virus we know from what has happened in Italy that the man could have been carrying and spreading the virus. Even if he was not how likely is it that no one entering Africa has been?

If I am in any way right, and I fervently hope I am not right, then all the headlines telling us how China getting its epidemic under control will not really matter from a global point of view. Of course it will be a huge triumph for China and I hope they succeed. But because the world seems to be turning a  blind eye to what might be going on unreported in Africa,  we could soon find that we have merely substituted one huge reservoir of infection for another. And Africa, unlike China is not going to be able to contain it.

In South Africa which is considered one of the African countries better equipped to deal with the virus this was the headline in The South African.

Coronavirus in Africa: Scare in Namibia, as SA hospital ‘not ready’ for cases

Tembisa hospital has been designated as one of the facilities where Cornoa virus victims would be quarantined and treated. The only problem is as the paper reports,

 The 44-bed neo-natal unit is often overcrowded, and staff have previously complained about their working conditions, casting doubt over Tembisa’s ability to host coronavirus patients.

The report goes on,

Jack Bloom, the DA’s leader in Gauteng, is upset that this location was chosen as one of three Gauteng hospitals to house patients with the deadly disease:

“Tembisa Hospital has been identified as one of three hospitals in Gauteng that will treat coronavirus cases, but this hospital is severely overcrowded and is only just recovering from antibiotic-resistant klebsiella infections that caused the deaths of 10 babies.”

“Unlike the other two identified hospitals, Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg and Steve Biko, there is simply no space at Tembisa Hospital to isolate coronavirus patients. It cannot be that Tembisa Hospital was chosen simply because it is near the OR Tambo airport where coronavirus-infected patients could enter the country.”

Meanwhile in Rwanda, 

Rwanda health minister fired

Rwanda’s president Paul Kagame on Sunday … who was speaking at the National Leaders’ Retreat…accused several of them [ministers] including the ex-health minister Diane Gashumba of lying… to him about the availability of kits to test individuals for the deadly Coronavirus, Covid-19.

“One morning, I called one of the leaders and the Prime Minister about the Coronavirus and asked that they examine each one of us ahead of the Leader’s Retreat. I told them to tell the minister of health to ensure this.”

“She responded that we have 3,500 kits, and that using 400 of them to test leaders would seriously deplete the number of kits we have. …

“Later we discovered that we do not have the kits as she said. We have kits for only 95 people and not 3,500.

If the world stands by and allows the virus to spread in Africa then Africa will be the reservoir for the virus from then on.  We will have a situation where every traveller, every migrant and refugee trying to enter Europe from Africa, arriving on beaches in Spain, Italy and Greece, will likely also be a carrier of the Corona virus. That is a situation that will turn very ugly very fast.

Ironic and horrible as it is to say, the only saving grace might be that the virus will have already become endemic in Europe before that happens.

So much for Africa and Europe. What of America? There too the virus is going to reveal ugly things that people don’t want to face up to.  It is just a fact that America has third world levels of poverty and neglect in almost every city. What will happen when the virus gets into those forgotten populations?  Will very crack head and meth tweeker self isolate for the public good? Or will they be driven by hunger and a desperate need for their fix to be out every day, sick or not, many turning tricks and all looking for a fix?  How is that going to work?

Will America lavish upon those people a level of medical care that they have never given them before?  Suddenly the people living in tents and under freeways, defecating on city streets because they have nowhere else, are they going to be given hospital beds and isolation units?

Lets suppose the FEMA camps are opened up. How is it going to work putting those people, the people we prefer to forget, in the same camp as your grandmother?  Social cohesion?

This virus is acting like an x-ray in all our countries and what its showing is not pretty.

A peace deal between the United States and its once sworn enemy the Taliban has been sealed in twin ceremonies, in which the US has agreed to wind down the war in Afghanistan after more than 18 years of fighting that turned into the longest conflict in American history, and to withdraw all of its troops from Afghanistan.

In the historic signing ceremony with the top US diplomat and the Taliban’s second highest-ranking leader, the U.S. and the militant group agreed to begin to end America’s longest war. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met a Taliban delegation during a historic moment which they shared a stage in Qatar’s capital Doha. Pompeo, who called it “a momentous day”, gave a list of pointers to the Taliban to follow to ensure success. 

Included in the deal are the following key clauses:

• Complete withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan in 14 months
• Afghan govt to engage with United Nation Security Council to remove Taliban members from sanctions list by 29 May
• US to reduce troops in Afghanistan to 8,600 within 135 days of – contingent on the Taliban’s fulfilment of its commitments under the agreement
• US to refrain from use of force against territorial integrity of Afghanistan.
• US will not intervene in Afghanistan’s domestic affairs
• US commits to seek annual funds to train, advice, equip Afghan security forces

The deal – signed by US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban political chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar – agrees to the complete withdrawal of US and NATO troops within 14 months, contingent on Taliban following through with its own side of the deal. The US has also agreed to refrain from the use of force against Afghanistan or intervening in its domestic affairs. It has also committed to seeking annual funds to train, advise and equip Afghan security forces.

The agreement allows the US to immediately begin withdrawing some of its roughly 13,000 troops in Afghanistan, fulfilling a key campaign promise of President Donald Trump to start getting the U.S. out of “endless wars.” But it leaves many key details – including a lasting peace agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government, as well as the rights of women – for future negotiations. The deal – which followed a seven-day reduction in violence – is also expected to pave the way toward direct talks between Taliban officials and Afghan leaders in Oslo next month, according to Bloomberg.

Barring complications, US troop levels are expected to decline to about 8,600 within 135 days, with all troops being withdrawn within 14 months. Further declines depend on the Taliban fulfilling their agreement to engage in talks with Afghan officials and confront terrorists, according to U.S. officials.

In exchange for the initial U.S. troop drawdown, the Taliban pledge to sit down to peace negotiations with other Afghans to cut ties with all terrorist groups like al-Qaida – which the Taliban harbored ahead of the Sept. 11 attacks, prompting a US invasion and over 18 years of war, and prevent Afghan territories from becoming militant havens. Despite almost two decades of war and $900 billion in spending by the US, the Taliban are at their strongest since being ousted by American forces in late 2001, after the group refused to hand over al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden following the Sept. 11 terror attacks.

Speaking at a parallel ceremony in Kabul, Afghanistan’s president Ashraf Ghani said: “All the people of Afghanistan are looking forward to a permanent peace.” He said that “today can be the moment of overcoming the past” and called for a moment of silence “in honour of our mutual fallen heroes”.

“The tragedy of 9/11 brought us together. Mutual sacrifice created human bonds between us. Mutual interest, your security and our freedom, sustains our relationship in mutual respect, which has made us partners”, he said.

Calling the relationship “transparent” he said: “NATO and US partners have spared neither blood nor treasure for attaining the goals of the partnership. We ask you to thank the veterans, especially the gold star families, for their service. Our sacrifice has been immense… children, youth in their prime, and men and women in all ages in all walks of life, whose lives have been taken away by senseless acts of violence in terror and public spaces.”

And he said: “We have the political will and the capacity to make peace because of the resilience of our society, the dynamism of our economy and the capability of our state.”

* * *

After over a year and a half of negotiations, details of the final agreement were finally released on Saturday, although there are annexes that will not be released, according to senior administration officials, who said they do not include any U.S. commitments, only enforcement mechanisms.

While many of the steps in the deal are conditioned on actions from both sides, there are some immediate impacts as the ink dries in Doha, Qatar, where chief U.S. negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad, his deputy Molly Phee and their team have spent over a year and a half negotiating with the Taliban’s representatives.

A week-long deal to reduce violence will continue, as the US immediately begins to draw down its approximately 13,000 troops in Afghanistan to 8,600, according to Defense Secretary Mark Esper and other senior administration officials.  That withdrawal will take months to complete, but U.S. officials, including Gen. Scott Miller, commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, have said that new number is still sufficient to carry out their mission.

 Any withdrawal of U.S. forces beyond that is contingent on the Taliban meeting its commitments, according to the deal.

There is “an aspirational timeline for withdrawal that is entirely conditions-based, and it will depend on their performance as we judge their performance,” a senior administration official said. Explicitly, withdrawal is tied to the Taliban meeting its counterterrorism commitments – to repudiate al-Qaida and other terrorist groups and take steps to demonstrate that.

“People are concerned about the historic relationship between the Taliban and al-Qaida. We think think this is a decisive and historic first step in terms of their public acknowledgement that they are breaking ties with al-Qaida,” a senior administration official told ABC News.

There will be verification mechanisms in place to ensure that happens, the official added, including “our military and other asset presence on the ground.” In exchange, they said, the U.S. will eventually start to deconstruct the “edifice” of economic and diplomatic pressure like sanctions.

But any further U.S. troop reduction is also tied to the Taliban’s behavior in Afghan peace negotiations, according to the senior officials, although it is not dependent on any particular outcome of that process.

“If the political settlement fails, if the talks fail, there is nothing that obliges the United States to withdraw troops,” said a second senior administration official, before adding that President Donald Trump still has the “prerogatives as commander-in-chief” to withdraw U.S. forces as he sees fit.

Aiming for March 10, those peace negotiations will bring together the Taliban and representatives of Afghanistan, including government officials, civil society leaders and women, the senior officials said, to determine the future Afghan government and a “road map” for the country. But government officials will attend in a “private” capacity, as the Taliban still refuses to recognize the government or the constitution — a concession that has angered many Afghan officials.

Esper is in Kabul to sign a joint declaration with President Ashraf Ghani and his rival and chief executive Abdullah Abdullah to reassert US support for the Afghan government and commit Ghani, Abdullah, their supporters and others to backing the next steps. Expected to take place in Oslo, Norway, the negotiations will be facilitated by the U.S., along with the United Nations, Norway, Germany, Indonesia and Uzbekistan, among others, the first senior official said.

Both senior officials cautioned those talks could be delayed, especially as post-election fighting between Ghani and Abdullah continues. Khalilzad will return to Kabul after the signing ceremony to push them to select an inclusive delegation to the negotiations, but it may prove difficult as Abdullah continues to claim to have won the presidency, five months after the votes were cast and 11 days after Ghani was declared the winner despite concerns over the count.

U.S. military commanders long ago assessed that the war would be unwinnable absent the presence of tens of thousands of more troops and a broad political accord. At its peak the U.S. had over 100,000 troops based in Afghanistan, but peace remained elusive in a country long known as the “graveyard of empires.”

More than two decades before U.S. forces arrived, Afghans had to contend with the Soviet Union’s invasion, a searing experience that led to a humiliating defeat for Moscow. As the Taliban consolidated power in the late 1990s, they became known for enforcing an extreme version of fundamentalist Islam that denied girls the right to an education and banned women from working.

* * *

Ahead of the signing of the Doha deal, U.S. officials described the agreement as the beginning of an effort to reach a broader political solution to a war that has spanned three U.S. presidencies and killed or injured more than 100,000 Afghans over the past decade alone, while costing the lives of over 2,400 American troops. Even as Taliban and U.S.-backed Afghan forces have fought to a stalemate, Islamic State terrorists gained a foothold in the country.

“Everyone is tired of war,” said Masood Mahfuz, a 42-year-old Afghan whose brother was killed in a Taliban bombing three years ago. “We are thirsty for peace. The only way is to make peace with the Taliban and forget the past.”

The signing ceremony Saturday came only after a week-long truce to reduce violence across the country was deemed successful. The Taliban agreed not to undertake major attacks, while the U.S. and Afghan security forces pledged to hold any airstrikes or raids on Taliban facilities, according to the second senior official, who said the reduction showed the Taliban had “both the commitment and the capability to enforce” that kind of truce.

 With the deal signed, there will be a further reduction of violence, the first senior official said, that is supposed to last as the Afghan peace negotiations take place. Both senior administration officials said the U.S. will push the parties to extend that reduction into a complete ceasefire across the country as quickly as possible — and for the protection of women’s and minorities’ rights, which critics say should have been a precondition all along.

But Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Tuesday, “Our mission set there has been much broader than that,” later adding “the Afghans will drive the solution,” including on women’s rights. Senior officials have said the U.S. will use its financial assistance as leverage to ensure those protections make it into the new government.

London plans to turn Hyde Park into a giant morgue in the event of a worst-case coronavirus scenario, reports Bloomberg.

“We have contingency plans to open up a morgue in Hyde Park, in tents,” said MP Nickie Aiken, whose district includes the 350-acre open space which was used as a refuge from the plague in the 17th century. “We would run the morgue for most of central London.”

As of Friday, 19 cases of the coronavirus, known as COVID-19, have been confirmed in the UK since it began spreading from China in January – where 78,000 cases have been confirmed.

The message from central government is to avoid panic, while behind the scenes officials are making just-in-case plans for a mass outbreak.

If it does turn into a pandemic, the U.K. is the best country to be in, because “we are so on it for contingency planning,” Aiken, an MP for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party, said in an interview on Friday. But Aiken, who is also a councilor for the Westminster area which includes the park, said she’s alert to the risk of contagion in the U.K. capital. –Bloomberg

“I was on the Tube yesterday going to the City, and I was thinking this is a nightmare,” said Aiken. “In the worst-case scenario, it’s going to be horrendous.”

Late on Friday, the Emerald Princess cruise ship docked in Los Angeles port, hours before its scheduled arrival. The LA City Fire Department said that it received a “call for help” just before 8PM local time and deployed four ambulances to Berth 93, where the ship was docked. 

Upon arriving, paramedics found two people suffering from “unknown injuries” and two others suffering from “unknown illnesses”. The four patients were taken to nearby hospitals “without lights or sirens”, according to KCAL Los Angeles. 

The ship reportedly had doctors and medical staff on board, but the ship still returned almost a full day early. The ship was on a 28 day cruise to Hawaii and the South Pacific. 

The port of LA commented that all remaining passengers were being kept on the ship as a precaution, and because many cannot get off without going through customers. Port police also said the ship would “go back out to sea tomorrow, as scheduled.”

The full report from CBS 2 KCAL Los Angeles can be seen here:

Via The Saker blog,

The murder of the Iranian hero-martyr General Soleimani created a situation in which a war between Iran and the Axis of Kindness (USA/Israel/KSA) became a real possibility but, at the very last minute, Uncle Shmuel decided that he had no stomach for a full-scale war against Iran. 

Wise decision.

This, however, does not at all imply that the AngloZionist Empire decided to stand by idly, far from it.  The need to take quick and determined action became particularly acute following the huge anti-US demonstrations in Iraq (well over one million people in the streets!) which directly put at risk the US occupation (the MSM would call it “presence”) in both Iraq and Syria.

At the same time, Turkish President Erdogan’s refusal to remove all the “bad terrorists” from the Idlib province eventually resulted in a joint Syrian-Russian offensive to liberate the province.  That offensive, in turn, clearly infuriated the Turks who warned of a major military operation to prevent the Syrians from liberating their own country.

This begs the question: are Russia and Turkey really on a collision course?

There are certainly some very worrying warning signs including a number of very harsh statements by Erdogan himself, and a suddenly re-kindled Turkish interest for the US “Patriots”.

On the ground in Idlib, the Turks have clearly provided the “bad terrorists” with a lot of support including equipment, MANPADs, tanks and armored personnel carriers.  The Turks actually went as far as sending special forces to assist the “bad terrorists” directly.  Finally, from footage taken by Russian and Syrian drones, and even the “bad terrorists” themselves, it appears undeniable that Turkish MLRS and regular artillery provided the “bad terrorists” with fire support.

Both sides also agree that a number of Turkish personnel were killed (they only disagree on how many and what these Turks were doing in Syria).

Finally, and most ominously, there is even a video circulating on the Internet which appears to show a US “Stinger” being fired by the “bad terrorists” at a Russian aircraft which, thank God, managed to evade it (unlike 2 Syrian Army helicopters which were shot down).

So the first conclusion that we can come to is that the Turks are already engaged in combat operations against the Syrians.  For the time being, these combat operations are just below the threshold of “credible deniability”, but not by much.  For example, if the Turks had shot down a Russian aircraft you can be pretty certain that the Russian public opinion (which has still not forgiven Erdogan for the downed Su-24) would have demanded that the Russian Aerospace Forces massively retaliate (just as they have every time Russian military personnel have been killed) kill scores of Turks.

The Russian position is very straightforward.  It goes something like this:

The Turks committed to remove all the “bad terrorists” from the Idlib province, leaving only the “good terrorists” who are committed to a ceasefire and a political peace process in place.  That did not happen.  In this case, the Syrians clearly have to do themselves what the Turks refused (or could not) do.  The Russian military presence in Syria, and the Russian military operations, are all absolutely legitimate and legal: the legitimate government of Syria invited the Russians in, and the UNSC agreed to back the Syrian peace process.  Thus the Russian Aerospace Forces’ strikes against the “bad terrorists” are absolutely legal.  Furthermore, Russia very much deplores the presence of regular Turkish units among the “bad terrorists” which is both illegal and very unhelpful.  Finally, the Russian Aerospace forces have no way to determine who sits in which tank, or who provides artillery cover for the operations of the “bad terrorists”.  Thus, if Turkish military personnel are killed in Syrian or Russian operations, this would be entirely the fault of Ankara.

So far the Turkish military operation has been rather unsuccessful and limited.

But Erdogan is now promising a major attack.

Will that happen and what can the Turks really do?

First and foremost, Turkey does not have the means to enter into a full-scale conflict with Russia.  Turkey cannot do that for political, economic and military reasons:

Political: the simple truth is that Turkey (and Erdogan) desperately need Russian political support, not only towards the West, but also towards Iraq, Iran or Israel.  Furthermore, Erdogan has now clearly deeply alienated the Europeans who are fed up with Erdogan’s constant threats to open the “refugees” spigot.  As for the Turks, they have already known for years that the EU will never accept them and that NATO will not support Turkey in its (very dangerous) operations in Iraq and Syria.

Economic: Turkey’s economy really suffered from the sanctions introduced by Russia following the shooting down of the Russian Su-24 by Turkish aircraft (backed by USAF fighters).  What was true then is even more true now, and the Turkish public opinion understands that.

Military: the past years have been absolutely disastrous for the Turkish armed forces which were purged following the coup attempt against Erdogan.  This sorry state of affairs is indirectly confirmed by the very poor performance of Turkish forces in Syria.

What about a conflict limited to Syria?

Again, Turkey is in a bad position.  For one thing, the Syrians and, even more so, the Russians control the airspace above Idlib.  The Turks are so frustrated with this state of affairs that they have now reportedly asked the US to deploy Patriot missiles in southern Turkey.  This is a rather bizarre request, especially considering that Turkey purchased S-400s from Russia or how pathetically the Patriots actually performed (recently in the KSA and elsewhere before that).  This, by the way,  might well be a case of fake news since, apparently, there are no Patriots available for Turkey even if the US agreed to sell.

Then there is the bellicose rhetoric we hear from Erdogan.  For example, he recently declared that:

“The regime, backed by Russian forces and Iran-backed militants, are continuously attacking civilians, committing massacres and shedding blood, (…) I hereby declare that we will strike regime forces everywhere from now on regardless of the [2018] deal if any tiny bit of harm is dealt to our soldiers at observation posts or elsewhere.”

That kind of language is, of course, very dangerous but, at least so far, the Turkish operation has been both limited and unsuccessful.  Syrian President Assad was not impressed and declared that:

It also means that we must not rest idle, but prepare for the battles to come. As a result, the battle to liberate the Aleppo and Idlib countryside continues regardless of some empty sound bubbles coming from the north (vain threats from Erdogan), just as the battle continues to liberate all of Syrian soil, crush terrorism and achieve stability.

In the meantime, in Iraq, the US has apparently dug-in and categorically refuses to leave.  In practical terms this means that the Iraqis will have to step up their anti-US campaign both politically (more protests and demonstrations) and militarily (more IEDs, convoy attacks and, probably soon, drone, cruise missile and ballistic missile attacks on US targets in Iraq).  I don’t believe that the US will be able to sustain that kind of pressure in the mid to long term, especially not in an election year (which promises to be hellish anyway).  Right now, the Idiot-in-Chief seems to think that threatening Iraq with “very big sanctions” is the way to restore good relationships.  In reality, all this will do is to further inflame anti-US feelings in Iraq and the rest of the region.

Then there is the tactical situation.  Please check these two maps: (click on map for a higher resolution)

The part in red shows the government controlled areas.  The light blue (or light green on the 2nd map) show the Turkish deployment.  The part in olive green (or darker green on the 2nd map) shows the parts of the Idlib province which are still under Takfiri occupation.  Finally, the small region around Tell Rifaat are controlled by the Kurds.

The Syrian forces, backed by Russia, have now pushed back the latest Turkish+Takfiri attack north and west of Aleppo and they are now attacking the southern tip of the Takfiri occupation zone around the Zawiya mountain and highlands, see here:

The Syrians have options here.  They can either gradually push north, or they can try to envelop the Takfiri forces in a “cauldron”.  Finally, the Syrians would score a major victory if they succeeded in regaining control of the highway between Aleppo and Latakia (in blue on the map).

As for the Turkish-backed Takfiris, they are pushing very hard towards Idlib, so far with only moderate and temporary successes (they typically take a location at huge cost in lives and equipment and then cannot hold on to it as soon as the Syrians and Russians bomb the crap out of their newly conquered positions).

All of this is taking place while Syrian, Russian, Turkish and US patrols are regularly meeting, often in rather tense situations which could quickly escalate into a firefight or, even worse, an open battle.  There is also the risk of an incident in the air since these four nations also conduct air operations over Syria.  And, just like in the case of the ground operations, Syrian and Russian air operations are legal under international law, Turkish, US or Israeli operations are not and constitute an act of “aggression” (n.b: the highest crime under international law).

So far, the various negotiations between the parties have not yielded any result.  This might change on March 5th when a conference on Syria attended by Turkey, Russia, France and Germany will meet (probably in Istanbul) to try to find a negotiated solution.  Considering that Turkish soldiers are killed every day and already that 2 Syrian helicopters have been shot down, this might be too late to avoid an escalation.

I will conclude here by posting a (minimally corrected) machine translation of a Russian translation of a text originally written by a Turkish political commentator and translated into Russian by a Telegram channel: (emphasis added)

Russia’s strategy from the very beginning was to return full control of Syrian territories to Assad. And Moscow was implementing its plans, getting closer to the goal step by step.  As long as Damascus will not take Idlib, the operation will continue. You don’t need to be an expert in this field to understand this. This is obvious.  Someone says that Erdogan’s trip to Ukraine played a role in the offensive operations of Damascus. In fact, this visit is the result of the Syrian army’s offensive. The Turkish President went to Kiev just after tensions rose between the Turkish armed forces and the Russian side. Erdogan is in Ukraine made statements that have caused irritation in Moscow.

Turkish diplomacy was at an impasse. We discussed for a long time that you can’t put all your eggs in one Russian basket. And they said: we will buy the S-400, build a nuclear power plant, and develop tourism. And Putin was made a hero in our country.  And now the defense Secretary is talking about buying American patriot air defense systems. And the President is talking about acquiring Patriot. “We did not succeed with Russia, we will get closer to the United States” – this is not how foreign policy is done. We need consistency in foreign policy. It is not appropriate for a country with a strong military power to change sides between world powers once a week.

What we are still discussing these days: we need to get closer to Europe and the US against Russia. These discussions worry our entrepreneurs who work with Russia. The tourism sector is concerned. Without Russian tourists, our tourism sector cannot fill all the volumes and make a profit.  We have not yet been able to resolve these issues, and we are discussing a clash with Russia. Let’s remember what happened after Turkey shot down a Russian plane. Our tourism sector could not recover for two years. What to expect from a military clash. We have to talk about it.

The goal of our state: to live in peace on our land, and keep all the troubles away from yourself, while doing this to attract new troubles – this is not an indicator of a good military strategy or a well-thought-out diplomatic strategy. Everyone should understand this.

The risk for Erdogan is obvious: in case of a serious confrontation with Russia (and Syria AND Iran, don’t forget them!), the consequences for Turkey might be severe, resulting in a sharp rise in anti-Erdogan feelings in Turkey, something he can hardly afford.

And that brings us to the current US/NATO/CENTCOM posture following the assassination of General Soleimani I mentioned in the beginning of this article.  The risks of a quick and dangerous escalation involving the USA and Iran are still extremely high.  The same can be said for the risks of a resumption of anti-US attacks by Iraqi Shia forces.  Then there are the conflicts in both Afghanistan and Yemen, which Uncle Shmuel probably would prefer to end, but has no idea how.  In these countries a rapid escalation could occur at any time, especially following Iran’s officially declared goal to kick the US out of the Middle-East.  And now, there is a risk of major escalation between Turkey, Syria and Russia: such an escalation would have a major potential to suck in the US forces in the region, even if nobody does so deliberately (or if the Iranians do that very deliberately).

Right now Uncle Shmuel is busy with a strategic PSYOP trying to get Russia and Iran into a conflict (see this propaganda piece for example).  That will not work, as both the Russians and the Iranians are waaaaaaay too savvy to fall for such primitive things.  The US also tried to instigate riots inside Iran, but they quickly petered out (as did the rumors about the US deliberately shooting down the Ukrainian airliner).

The Middle-East is impossible to predict, it is too complex and there are too many possible factors which influence the situation.  Still, my guess is that the March 5th conference, assuming it takes place, will force Erdogan to back down and re-pledge his commitment to bringing back security to the Idlib province.  That is, as far as I can see, the only way for Erdogan to avoid an embarrassing military defeat with possibly very serious political consequences.

Conversely, should there be an open clash between Turkey and Syria+Russia, then I don’t see NATO intervening to back Turkey.  At the most, the US/NATO can send forces to “protect” Turkey and equipment, but in both cases these would not be effective (the problems of the Turkish military are too big to be solved by such mostly symbolic actions).  While some more rabid countries (Poland, Netherlands, UK and, of course, the USA) might be tempted to get a major NATO action going against Syria and, through that, against Russia, the mentally saner EU countries have exactly zero desire to end up in a war against Russia, not over the Ukraine, and not over Syria.

Thus while Erdogan is desperately trying to pit the USA against Russia, this will not work, especially since this latest pro-US “zag” will only further alienate Iran (and the rest of the region).  I predict that after the March 5th conference, Erdogan will be forced to resume his “friendship” with Putin and basically cave in.

If that does not happen, for whatever reason, an escalation will be pretty close to inevitable.

The Saker

*  *  *

PS: Colonel Cassad (aka Boris Rozhin) has published on his blog an interesting article which looks at a theory which, apparently, is popular in the Middle-East and Russia.  This theory says that what is taking place is a gigantic show, a deception, in which both Russia and Turkey appear to be at odds, but in reality are working hand in hand to disarm the Takfiris and exchange territory.  Here are, in his opinion, the possibly indications of such a collaboration: (machine translated and minimally corrected)

1. After some formalities, Turkey resumed joint patrols with the Russian military in Rojava, which is carried out in a routine manner.

2. Russia has increased the quota for the supply of Turkish tomatoes to Russia despite the fact that Russia threatened to block the supply of Turkish tomatoes.

3. USA did not give Turkey patriot missile, which was described in the Turkish media referring to anonymous sources in the Turkish government. No actual support from the United States and NATO, Turkey has not received.

4. Despite the fact that the SAA was not going to stop the offensive and continued to surround the Turkish observation points, Turkey has effectively given Assad’s carte blanche for all of February, stating that no major combat operation will be initiated before the beginning of March.

5. The main chain of the new observation points were deployed by Turkey to the North of highway M-4. The southern direction is not actually strengthened. Attempts to cover the Kafr will Sagna or Kafr Nabl were not undertaken, although this is more important points than Nairab.

6. The bulk of the Pro-Turkish militants were drawn to Idlib and Carmine, while the southern front was actually exposed for Assad there is a situation of maximum favour for liberation dozen cities and towns.

7. The battle of Niravam turned into a week-long meat grinder, where the militants engaged in stupid frontal assaults against Syrian positions with heavy losses but capturing Neirab, there is virtually nothing on the operational level, they did not win – losing people and most importantly – time.

8. The Russian and Turkish military keep all channels of communication and exchange information, including on the movement of Turkish columns. The Russian military help to supply the surrounded Turkish observational points in the rear of Assad.

9. Moscow and Ankara have repeatedly stressed that not to seek a military conflict with each other, preferring to seek resolution of disputes through diplomatic means.

And Rozhin adds:

Why all this may be part of a backroom deal? Because such a scenario would allow Turkey to look like a defender of Idlib, which is in strong opposition to the plans of Assad and Putin. At least visually. As for Assad and Putin, they can claim to have liberated part of the Idlib province. The battle of Niravam in this logic allow Erdogan to save face before “in the interests of peace and security,” to sign a new deal with Russia with a new line of demarcation, which officially has already been discussed at negotiations in Moscow on 17-18 February. Officially, the Turks rejected it. But it’s official. And if we assume that the agreement already exists and this just fixed sight 5 March, while Assad released another piece of Idlib and the militants “An-Nusra” will be partially disposed in the battles with the SAA in Idlib and in the southern frontal attack on the front under Niranam.  In favor of this version may indicate the previous experience of transactions between Russia and Turkey, when Ankara loudly growled at Assad, but de facto did not prevent the Assad regime to clean up the enclaves and win the battle for Aleppo.  Against this version can play what the Turks themselves are suffering losses in manpower, and further concessions to Russia may undermine Erdogan’s positions in Idlib, so he tries to bargain.

I personally doubt this version, if only because this is a very tricky and dangerous way to get things done, and because of the many threats and even ultimatums Erdogan is constantly spewing.  A more likely explanation for all of the above is that 1) the Takfiris are desperate and are running out of steam and 2) the Turks are afraid of a serious confrontation with Russia.  Rozin concludes:

I think that by March 5 the question of whether there is was a secret deal or not will finally be clarified, since Erdogan’s threats are all focusing on early March, at which point he will have to either attack or chose to play the role of peacemaker, which “diplomatically” stopped the advance of Assad.

Here I can only agree with him.

*  *  *

PLEASE Tip The Saker Ammunition Chest To HELP Keep The Good Fight Alive!

Sports fans might want to get used to this.

Italian Serie A soccer team Inter Milan cemented its spot in the next round of the Europa League last night, but not a single fan was present at San Siro Stadium to watch, according to CNN.

As Lombardy, Italy’s hardest-hit region, struggles to contain the virus before a cluster emerges in Milan, Italy’s most densely populated city, the Milanese football club was forced to play the match without anybody there to witness it, as Italians wrestle with the fact that these ’emergency measures’ will likely remain in place for some time.

Across the world, in Japan, China, South Korea and elsewhere, sporting events have been cancelled as part of containment measures targeting large crowds and gatherings where the virus could easily spread.

This weekend, five more Serie A matches will be contested before empty stadiums.

Inter Milan triumphed over Bulgaria’s Ludogorets in the match, 2-1.