After Crushing Its Clients, JPMorgan Now Sees 50% Chance Of Zero Rates This Year

After Crushing Its Clients, JPMorgan Now Sees 50% Chance Of Zero Rates This Year

After telling its clients again, and again, and again to short US Treasurys, it’s time to call it: anyone who listened to JPMorgan has been quietly taken to one of the hundreds of portable crematoriums in Wuhan and even more quietly disposed of. Starting in January…

… continuing in early February…

… and again just last week…

… JPM went on a crusade against rates, and lost in epic fashion, with the 30Y going parabolic during JPM’s relentless shorting campaign and printing today at all time highs, which for anyone without an infinite balance sheet (such as, for example JPM thanks to its access to billions in repos after the repo market crisis JPM itself triggered) was a career-ending event.

So what does JPM do after the Fed admitted that any hopes for a mean-reversion are dead and buried, and rates are only going lower from this point on as the world sinks into the Japanification “NIRP trap”? Why it is kind enough to tell all those who listened to it and shorted bonds that its economics team now sees a 50% change that rates return to zero this year (with money markets now signaling ZIRP may be hit as soon as June).

Yet even in crushing defeat, JPM refuses to admit, well, defeat, and in a note published overnight by JPM’s economist and research teams and titled “Could US Treasury yields hit zero?“, and despite saying there is now a 90% chance of a recession, the bank – which until just a few weeks ago was praising the state of the US economy – is quick to point out that “this is not our base-case view, and our US rates team is forecasting 10-year US Treasury yields to reach 1.30% by mid-year 2020 and 1.60% by year-end.”

Oh ok. Unfortunately, with all of its rates clients now broke, it wasn’t exactly clear who, if anyone, will benefit from the bank’s “tremendous insight” and continued optimism about the future even as the entire world now sinks into an imminent virus-led recession.

The full note, for anyone who actually cares and wants to be put money that this time, finally, JPMorgan may be right, is below:

Could US Treasury yields hit zero?

A special message from Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research As 10-year US Treasury yields reached an all-time record low of 1.09% on March 2nd, this report references J.P. Morgan’s latest global research on the risks and implications of returning to the zero lower bound. More of our research offerings can also be found on J.P. Morgan Markets.

In mid-January, we argued that low real interest rates are the preeminent macroeconomic challenge of our time as bond yields have been falling across the world for 40 years to historical lows, accelerating after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. When we published our report posing the question, “What if US yields go to zero?”, the 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 1.80% (see J.P. Morgan Perspectives, What if US yields go to zero?, 16 January 2020). Weeks later, as fears of COVID-19 spreading to the rest of the world have intensified, 10-year US Treasury yields reached an all-time record low of 1.09% on March 2nd. Market pricing has shifted to reflect negative financial market feedback channels and sentiment effects, with many risk markets experiencing their worst drawdown in a decade over the past week. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell implicitly acknowledged that current Fed policy may no longer be appropriate and a return to the zero lower bound must now be considered among the Fed’s appropriate policy responses to the outbreak. Our US economics team is forecasting that today’s emergency 50bp ease will be followed by another 25bp cut in April. We are also penciling in a 25bp rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE) at its March 26th meeting at the latest. Rates markets are pricing in an even greater “pandemic pivot” with the terminal Fed funds rate reaching ~50bp by mid-2021. Outside of the US, the market now prices two 25bp cuts from the BoE, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just eased by 25bp. EM central banks will remain accommodative, with at least 13 (out of 22) EM central banks easing this year. One of the recurring themes in optimal monetary policy near the zero lower bound is that when growth risks occur with policy rates within the neighborhood of zero, then the central bank should act early and aggressively. Our US economics research team sees a 50% chance that policy rates return to zero this year. To be clear, this is not our base-case view, and our US rates team is forecasting 10-year US Treasury yields to reach 1.30% by mid-year 2020 and 1.60% by year-end.

An update of our US recession probability framework based on market pricing as of today finds that rate markets are now implying that something that looks like an average US recession is at a very high 90% likelihood scenario even though we have not altered our full-year US growth forecast that dramatically. The US economy will avoid recession in 2020, but J.P. Morgan economics research now forecasts a 1Q20 stall in global GDP growth, representing the first time global growth has stalled outside of a recession. Our US economics team now expects growth of 0.5% in 1H20, followed by a rebound to 2.25% in 2H20 for a full-year forecast of 1.4% growth. However, given the rising risk of a return to the zero lower bound this year, we include a round-up of the reports published on this topic over the past few months as well as links to flagship publications, PowerPoint and video summaries.

Translation: we were catastrophically wrong about everything, so after you are done calculating your losses for listening to us and shorting the 30Y, here are all our reports on the topic which, you guessed it, were dead wrong too. You can use them for kindling in case you can’t afford to heat your house next winter.

Oh, and before we forget, that’s the real reason why he is richer than you.


Tyler Durden

Wed, 03/04/2020 – 11:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2wwb7ec Tyler Durden

“Imagine The Worst Case Scenario, Protect Yourself” – Ray Dalio Warns Virus Will “Annihilate” Some Markets

“Imagine The Worst Case Scenario, Protect Yourself” – Ray Dalio Warns Virus Will “Annihilate” Some Markets

The coronavirus is a once-in-a-lifetime epidemic that will crush those who don’t defend for a worst-case scenario, Bridgewater co-founder Ray Dalio wrote in a Tuesday LinkedIn post.

I will repeat my overarching perspective, which is that I don’t like to take bets on things that I don’t feel I have a big edge on, I don’t like to make any one bet really big, and I’d rather seek how to neutralize myself against big unknowns than how to bet on them. 

That applies to the coronavirus.  Still, there’s no getting around having to figure out what this situation is likely to mean and how we should deal with it, so here are my thoughts for you to take or leave. In reading them please realize that I’m a “dumb shit” when it comes to viruses, though I do get to triangulate with some of the world’s best experts. So, for the little that they’re worth, here are my thoughts. 

Three Perspectives

As I see it there are three different things going on that are related yet are very different and shouldn’t be confused: 

1) the virus,

2) the economic impact of reactions to the virus, and

3) the market action.  

They all will be affected by highly emotional reactions. Individually and together they lend themselves to a giant whipsaw with big mispricings, with the off chance that it will trigger the downturn that I have been worried would happen with both the big wealth/political gap and the end of the big debt cycle (when debts are high and central banks are impotent in trying to stimulate).

1) The Virus

The virus itself will almost certainly a) come and go and b) have a big emotional impact, which will most likely produce a big whipsaw. 

It will most likely lead to an uncontained global health crisis that could have high human and economic costs, though how it is handled and what the consequences will be will vary a lot by location (which will also affect how their markets behave). Containing the virus (i.e., minimizing its spreading) will occur best where there are:

1) capable leaders who are able to make executive decisions well and quickly,

2) a population that follows orders,

3) a capable bureaucracy to enforce and administer the plans, and

4) a capable health system to identify and treat the virus well and quickly. 

It will require the leaders to turn on “social distancing” quickly and effectively ahead of the virus accelerating and to withdraw it quickly as it declines.  I believe that China will excel at this, major developed economies will be less good but OK, and those who are weaker than them in these respects will be dangerously worse. 

For this reason, I am told that it’s likely that it will spread fast in these other countries and roughly in proportion to those four factors I just mentioned, and likely as a function of the weather (e.g., the hot weather in the Southern Hemisphere is thought to be an inhibitor). Because it is spreading fast to many countries and the reported cases and deaths are likely to increase rapidly, the news is likely to rapidly increase panicky reactions. 

Also, in the US there will be much more testing happening over the next couple of weeks, which will dramatically increase the numbers of reported infected people, which will also probably lead to more severe reactions and greater social distancing controls.  I am told that the stresses on hospitals could become very large, which will make handling the cases of all patients more difficult. In short, I am told that we should expect much more serious problems ahead. 

2) The Economic Impact

Reactions to the virus (e.g., “social distancing”) will probably cause a big short-term economic decline followed by a rebound, which probably will not leave a big sustained economic impact. The fact of the matter is that history has shown that even big death tolls have been much bigger emotional affairs than sustained economic and market affairs. My look into the Spanish flu case, which I’m treating as our worst-case scenario, conveys this view; so do the other cases.

While I don’t think this will have a longer-term economic impact, I can’t say for sure that it won’t because, as you know, I believe that history has shown us that when

a) there is a large wealth/political gap and there is a battle against populists of the left and populists of the right and

b) there is an economic downturn, there are likely to be greater and more dysfunctional conflicts between the sides that undermine the effectiveness of decision making, and this is made worse when

c) there are large debts and ineffective monetary policies and

d) there are rising powers challenging the existing world powers.

The last time that happened was during the 1930s leading up to World War II, and the time before that was in the period leading up to World War I. Certainly, the wealth gap and political conflict leading to possible policy changes will be top of mind along with the coronavirus on this Super Tuesday. 

3) The Market Impact

The world is now leveraged long with a lot of cash still on the sidelines—i.e., most investors are long equities and other risky assets and the amount of leveraging that has taken place to support these positions has been large because low interest rates relative to expected returns on equities and the need to leverage up low returns to make them larger have led to this. The actions taken to curtail business activities will certainly cut revenues until the virus and business activity reverse which will lead to a rebound in revenue. That should (but won’t certainly) lead to V- or U-shaped financials for most companies.  However, during the drop, the market impact on leveraged companies in the most severely affected economies will probably be significant. We will show you what that looks like shortly. My guess is that the markets will probably not distinguish well between those which can and cannot withstand well the temporary shock and will focus more on their temporary hit to revenues than they should and underweight the credit impact—e.g., a company with plenty of cash and a big temporary economic hit will probably be exaggeratedly hit relative to one that is less economically hit but has a lot of short-term debt. 

Additionally, it seems to me that this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens.  These folks come in all sorts of forms, such as insurance companies who insured against the consequences that we are about to experience, those who sold deep-out-of-the-money options planning to earn the premiums and cover their exposures through dynamic hedging if and when the prices get near in the money, etc. The markets are being, and will continue to be, affected by these sorts of market players getting squeezed and forced to make market moves because of cash-flow issues rather than because of thoughtful fundamental analysis.  We are seeing this in very unusual and fundamentally unwarranted market action. Also, what’s interesting is how attractive some companies with good cash yields have become, especially as many market players have been shaken out. 

As far as central bank policies are concerned, interest-rate cuts and increased liquidity won’t lead to any material pickup in buying and activity from people who don’t want to go out and buy, though they can goose risky asset prices a bit at the cost of bringing rates closer to hitting ground zero. That’s true in the US. In Europe and Japan, monetary policy is virtually out of gas so it’s difficult to imagine how pure monetary policy will work. In Europe, it will be interesting to see if fiscal policy stimulations can pick up in this political environment.  Also, in all countries, don’t expect much more stimulation coming from rate cuts because most of the rate cuts have already happened via the declines in bond and note yields which is what equities and most other assets are priced off of. So, it seems to me that containing the economic damage requires coordinated monetary and fiscal policy targeted more at specific cases of debt/liquidity-constrained entities rather than more blanket cuts in rates and broad increases in liquidity.

The most important assets that you need to take good care of are you and your family. As with investing, I hope that you will imagine the worst-case scenario and protect yourself against it.


Tyler Durden

Wed, 03/04/2020 – 11:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/38kLOcc Tyler Durden

The Right (& Wrong) Questions To Be Asking About The Fed, The Market, & The Virus

The Right (& Wrong) Questions To Be Asking About The Fed, The Market, & The Virus

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“The Fed’s Shock and Awe emergency rate cut was awesome for all of 20 minutes..”

Yesterday’s 50 bp “emergency rate cut” capitulation by the Fed and the market’s subsequent down-spike tells us a lot about current sentiment. It’s not good. Following the lacklustre G7 call to discuss the crisis and more dither, the market basically concluded: “We don’t believe you can do “whatever it takes” to avoid recession and market crisis. Prove you can!”

The Feb has opened a whole can of worms, just as we face something unknown, unsettling, and completely outside the scope of markets – The Virus. For the Fed to make such a clear mis-step raises all kinds of concerns. The market is uncertain, swirling in doubt, and pondering the following questions: 

  • Why has the Fed had caved into Trump’s demands for easing? The Fed’s credibility being questioned at such an early stage of a developing crisis won’t help.

  • Didn’t the Fed understand you can’t fight an exogenous supply side crisis with crude monetary easing? The sell-off demonstrated the market understands the limitations of monetary policy – pushing a heavy boulder up a hill with a wet length of wool hasn’t worked these past 12 years, why would It work now? The market will need further convincing the authorities can “do whatever it takes” – which means damaging long-term consequences and distortions to solve for short-term weakness.

  • Doesn’t the Fed read the headlines – and grasp the deluge of negative economic reality and remorselessly bad news requires full blooded fiscal and regulatory action? The authorities need to be acting to prevent a cascade of defaults caused by broken supply chains contaminating the whole financial system – potential causing a massive banking crisis. Rate cuts don’t do that. Fiscal measures to stall foreclosures, boost demand, and stimulate activity are required, perhaps with government stimulus through tax measures.  

  • Why is the Fed using up its scarce policy ammunition at this point in a crisis that is still developing? With the 10 year T-bond at sub 1%, the Fed has limited scope for further cuts – what does it do next to try to placate markets? How dangerous is the policy outlook?

  • Does this mean the Fed Put is busted? Are we now likely to see even more manipulative measures – like a full-on QE asset purchase programme. Perhaps Trump will demand the Fed juices the equity markets? This is possible in the wake of a reinvigorated Democrat push. 

And.. the killer conspiracy question: 

  • What does the Fed know about Coronavirus that we don’t? 

I suppose it didn’t help the WHO announced the mortality rate on the virus is more like 3.4% rather than the 1% typical for most categories of the flu soon after the Fed announcement. While China’s draconian containment policies seem to be working, based on slowing infection rates, most governments are planning for the worst case – Pandemic: transmission, infection and swamped hospitals.

Just read through the negative economic consequences being felt across the board. Smart money has completely written off the global cruise business. Airlines are reeling, laying off staff and cancelling flights. Chinese airlines are asking Airbus to delay deliveries. Weather satellites do suggest Chinese factories are re-opening – they can spot the NoX blooms from space! – but it will take time to ramp up supply chains, and they are vulnerable to a potential second wave of infection.

Where does the market go from here?

Some observers have pointed out the global stock markets are getting smaller as more companies go private and stock buybacks have reduced the number of shares in circulation. As 2/3 of S&P500 companies now pay dividends in excess of Treasury Yields, surely there is still upside for stocks, even if the global economy is headed for recession? The low level of bond yields apparently justifies higher P/E multiples. 

Really? Surely lower yields mean a heightened risk environment, which means multiples should fall?

This is what drives yield tourism – artificially low yields forcing investors to take greater and greater risk in the search for returns.  It has massive potential to end badly. Where will the pain strike? 

Asset Managers were once 90% Gilt/Treasury holders have become risk takers and yield tourists. Today they are probably 30% junk and near junk bonds, 30% investment grade and 40% equity. The last 12 years has seen a massive and deliberate transfer of risk from systemically important banks, to a more diverse range of asset managers. 

Banks understood risk. Their businesses were intelligence-led from their on-the-ground bankers and branches, feeding large backroom risk management teams with direct information to monitor every facet of the market. Risk now resides in fund managers, who have small Risk Management departments assessing what they read in the press. MiFid rules ensure they pay for puff put out by the investment bank research departments – many don’t bother. Asset manager risk departments may be good, but they lack the ancestral risk management DNA the banks once had. 

The upside is the allocation of risk across the market has become massively more diverse. If one Asset Manager goes down because of risk management failure to exit in time, its far less damaging to the financial system in terms of contagion than a bank going down.

But what happens when the market basis suddenly shifts and the Asset Management universe suddenly tries to exit Corporate debt – doors locked, Junk bonds – doors locked, and equity markets crash. Who loses? Savers? And what happens then…. 

The next crisis is likely to be on the AM side – and that’s likely to create massive future liabilities for governments as pension saving disappear at a time when debt levels will be under pressure… Another sovereign debt crisis anyone? Just saying…. 

There is still lots of denial across the City about the Coronavirus panic.

A) If your question is: Why is the market panicking about a virus which seems marginally more dangerous than normal flu? …. you are asking the wrong question.

B) If your question is: Has the market over-estimated the economic consequences of the actions taken by the authorities to contain the virus? … you are on the right lines and looking for a buying opportunity. 

C) If your question is: How much more damage can the global economy take before the G7 and central banks can’t help? … you are getting warm, and wondering about the implications if/when this turns into a major crisis… 

Meanwhile – Back in the USA

Well done Mike Bloomberg – he’s won his own South Pacific stronghold in Samoa in last night’s SuperTuesday caucus! I wonder if the US dependency has got an extinct volcano he can model into a nice lair for the billionaire supervillain in waiting? 5 delegates cost Mike a lot. 

The Democrat Party Core finally got its act together just in time to turn the nomination into a drag race between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Biden won Texas, while Bernie stormed California. The endorsements should flow towards Biden. Will Bernie step aside and give him his support? Over the next few weeks there is a real prospect the Democrats will get their act together and make November 2020 a proper race. I expect the pressure will increasingly be on Trump. It all about the Economy Stupid! 


Tyler Durden

Wed, 03/04/2020 – 10:49

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3cutxw5 Tyler Durden

WTI Holds Around $48 After Crude Production Hit New Record Highs, Refined Product Stocks Tumble

WTI Holds Around $48 After Crude Production Hit New Record Highs, Refined Product Stocks Tumble

Oil prices extended gains this morning on the back of hopes for 1.2mm b/d production cut from OPEC+ (and entirely dismissing reports that Russia is against the idea), after a smaller than expected API crude build last night.

“In terms of fundamentals the numbers are being changed very quickly,” says Olivier Jakob, managing director of Petromatrix GmbH.

“It’s going to be about OPEC and the reaction to that. There’s a lot of uncertainty.”

For now we focus on the official inventory data.

API

  • Crude +1.69mm (+3mm exp)

  • Cushing -1.352mm

  • Gasoline -3.9mm (-1.87mm exp)

  • Distillates -1.7mm (-2mm exp)

DOE

  • Crude +784k (+3mm exp)

  • Cushing -1.971mm – biggest draw since Dec 2019

  • Gasoline -4.339mm (-1.87mm exp) – biggest draw since April 2019

  • Distillates -4.008mm (-2mm exp) – biggest draw since March 2019

The sixth weekly crude build in a row (though considerably less than expected) was offset by huge product draws…

Source: Bloomberg

Total crude and product stockpiles were drawn down 11.9 million barrels, the most since June. Big draws in gasoline, distillate and propane/propylene pulled down the total as seasonal refinery maintenance picked up.

US Crude production increased to a new record high…This is even as producers are widely expecting demand destruction from the coronavirus.

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was trading just above $48 ahead of the DOE print, and held their after the data hit…

The crude price reaction is muted, despite the smaller than expected build and big gasoline and distillate draws. Maybe all eyes are on the OPEC meeting; prices were already up this morning. 


Tyler Durden

Wed, 03/04/2020 – 10:38

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2VLRt8m Tyler Durden

The CFPB Needed Better Friends

Yesterday, the Supreme Court heard argument in Seila Law v. CFPB. This case presented a direct challenge to the structure of the CFPB. However, the Trump Administration has declined to defend the agency, as it is currently structured. Specifically, Solicitor General Francisco argued that a sole director, who could only be removed “for-cause,” was inconsistent with the President’s powers. As a result, the Supreme Court appointed an amicus curiae to defend the CFPB.

That choice fell to Justice Kagan, the Circuit Justice for the Ninth Circuit. And she made a strategic decision. Rather than selecting someone like Deepak Gupta, a steadfast defender (and former employee) of the CFPB, she looked to the right, and picked Paul Clement. Yes, she selected the former Scalia clerk who (I suspect) agrees with fellow Scalia clerks, SG Francisco and Kannon Shanmugam.

At the time, I thought it was a shrewd move. Clement would be better served to hand-craft arguments for the conservatives on the bench, particularly Chief Justice Roberts, who may otherwise be inclined to rule against the CFPB. In effect, Kagan chose Clement as the equivalent of a counter-clerk. (I am not sure if Kagan has adopted the sometimes-practice of Justice Scalia, and picked counter-clerks for her own chambers).

Did Kagan’s move pan out? I don’t think so.

First, Paul Clement clashed a bit with Justice Gorsuch. At one point, Clement criticized Solicitor General Francisco’s position. He said, “I offer you two limiting principles, which I think is two more than the Solicitor General’s offered you.” That barb was gratuitous. And Gorsuch was right to put Clement in his place. Bob Barnes offered this account in the Washington Post:

Gorsuch did not seem to appreciate the argument or Clement’s suggestion that the case should be decided in a limited manner without reaching the constitutional issues. He got into a testy and extended exchange about whether Clement, a solicitor general under President George W. Bush who was arguing his 101st case at the court, was avoiding his questions.

“I want to be responsive,” Clement protested. When Gorsuch asked Clement at one point for a ‘limiting principle” for one of his arguments, Clement replied that he had two, which was two more than offered by the government.

“If we could avoid disparaging our colleagues and just answer my question, I would be grateful,” Gorsuch said with a terse smile.

The exchange between Gorsuch and Clement was quite long, and unusually brusque. Did Clement presume a level of familiarity with a Justice usually on his side? I doubt it. Clement has now argued 101 cases. He knows better.

Rather, my impression is that Clement’s argument seemed forced. Of course, Clement had his usual smooth and skillful presentation, and zealously advocated for the case to which he was appointed. But the presentation didn’t come across as genuine. He likely didn’t believe what he was saying, and it showed–at least from my vantage point. I almost felt like Clement was playing a role. He was acting. He was trying to come across as someone who wants the CFPB to survive, when in fact he probably agrees with the petitioners. And sometimes when you are playing a role, you push too hard. You work so hard to fight against your own priors. And in doing so, you think you need to take a more aggressive position than you otherwise would, because your usual lines are blurred. I have no inside knowledge about Clement’s strategy. I can only compare it to the many other arguments I’ve seen him make over the years. And this case felt different.

There is a second reason why Kagan’s selection of Clement didn’t pan out: Clement’s position was informed by his own position on the separation of powers. One of the most important questions in the case was whether “for-cause” protections could be added to cabinet members. Recently, Cass Sunstein argued that Congress could place “for-cause” protections for the Attorney General. I responded that this position is inconsistent with both the majority and dissent in Morrison v. Olson. But this argument is premised on the unique role the President plays in deciding whether to prosecute someone for criminal offenses. I don’t know that the Morrison majority supports the same argument for other cabinet positions. And I think Humprey’s Executor could be read to support for-cause provisions for certain cabinet officials. (Under Myers v. U.S., Justice Scalia’s Morrison dissent, all principal officers must be removable at will.)

A full-throated defender of the CFPB would have bit the bullet, and said that Morrison would allow placing “for-cause” protections on most, if not all cabinet officials, with the possible exception of the Attorney General. Indeed, an advocate like Sunstein (or perhaps Elizabeth Warren) would have said that even the Attorney General could be protected by a “for-cause” standard.

But Clement did not take that position. Instead, he developed a limiting principle about the removal power that I hadn’t considered before. (Indeed, it was this limiting principle that Gorsuch repeatedly asked about).

Clement explained:

Second, there’s a constitutional backstop, an absolute constitutional backstop, which is those authorities that the Constitution assigns directly to the President –so the State Department, the Defense Department, pardon power; there’s a few others –those cannot be subject under any circumstances to anything other than at-will removal.

In other words, if the Constitution assigns a power to the President, then the President’s supervision of the agencies that execute that power cannot be limited by a “for-cause” provision. Clement lists a few examples. First the State Department presumably premised on the President’s powers over foreign affairs. Second, the Defense Department, which involves the President’s powers as Commander in Chief. Third, the pardon power, which I think would relate to DOJ. These cabinet positions must be removable “at will.” I did not see this argument made in Clement’s brief; it was reserved for argument.

Justice Alito followed up and asked about “the EPA or Homeland Security.” Clement replied:

I think EPA is something that they probably could make subject to for-cause removal. I think Homeland Security, in its current form, they couldn’t, because some of the powers that were given to the Homeland Security Secretary by Congress were powers that were borrowed from the Defense Department.

And I think, if any of the authorities that are being exercised by a cabinet secretary are authorities that the Constitution assigns directly to the President, you probably can’t make that subject to -[for-cause removal standards].

Clement may be right. I need to give this limiting principle some more thought. But this argument goes beyond what the Morrison majority held. Chief Justice Rehnquist did not say that the removal power is limited where “the Constitution assigns [powers] directly to the President.” That position is much closer to Justice Scalia’s dissent, and takes a very unitary-executive flavor feel.

I think the natural response to Clement’s position is that the CFPB can take enforcement actions, and the discretion to bring those actions closely resembles the Attorney General’s decision to bring criminal prosecutions. I think a credible argument can be made that the Constitution does assign the relevant prosecutorial discretion to the President with respect to the CFPB. Congress can define the agency’s jurisdiction, but the decision whether to exercise that prosecutorial discretion belongs to the executive. Under that theory, the CFPB Director could not be protected by a “for-cause” standard.

These thoughts are tentative. But Clement’s Scalian limiting principle, in some regards, weakens the defense. What the CFPB needed was a Sunsteinian defender, who argued that even the Attorney General could be restricted. The Court would have rejected that argument, but the argument was a reasonable one, and should have been made. Here, Clement’s understanding of the separation of powers did not serve the CFPB well.

Ultimately, I think Kagan’s selection of Clement was too-shrewd-by-half. She would have been better off picking someone like Deepak Gupta, who could have given the CFPB the defense it needed. I suspect there are some defenders of the CFPB who will quietly agree with me.

The Supreme Court also gave some argument time to the House of Representatives as amicus curiae. Douglas Letter argued on behalf of the House. This was his third argument before the Supreme Court. I’ll be blunt: he was not effective. His argument stretches from pp. 66-77 of the transcript.

At several junctures, Justice Gorusch asked Letter the same question he asked Clement: what line would he draw. This question was very, very obvious. Everyone could have seen it coming. But Letter was either unable, or unwilling to answer the question. Consider this exchange between Letter and Justice Gorsuch:

Justice Gorsch: So where … would you draw the line, Mr. Letter, then? If –I guess I have two questions for you. First, if –if the standard isn’t watered down, what does that standard mean for removal in your mind? And, number two, what would be the stopping point for Congress’s ability to place high levels, serious impediments to presidential removal powers of -of members of the cabinet and other executives –what we think of traditionally as executive agencies?

MR. LETTER: Your Honor, I’m going to start with the second one. I don’t know the answer of how far Congress could –could go, Congress and the President together could go.

JUSTICE GORSUCH: Isn’t that a pretty vital question for us to be able to answer to decide this case?

MR. LETTER: I don’t think so, Your Honor, because you have decided in Humphrey’s Executor, Wiener, Buckley, Free Enterprise, Morrison versus Olson, you’ve decided all of those cases and you’ve said that removal protections are constitutional without answering that question.

I –I searched in vain. In none of those decisions have you –

JUSTICE GORSUCH: No, fair enough. But you’re at the podium, so take a shot at it.

(Laughter.)

After the laughter, Letter cited Morrison, but declined to address the specific question about whether cabinet officers, other than the Attorney General, could be protected:

MR. LETTER: They –I’m going to pick up on a word that –that I believe this Court has used, which is they should be modest. I think the test is, Your Honor, what –again, this Court has said, I believe it’s in Morrison, but you’ve said it in various situations, is it –does it so interfere with the executive’s ability to carry out his constitutional responsibilities?

I think that’s the test that this Court has –has said in a variety of separation-of-powers cases. I know that’s -that’s vague, but I can’t do better than what -what you have said.

Yes, you could do better. Clement did it. After some cross-talk, Justice Gorusch said:

JUSTICE GORSUCH: I’m sorry. I hope you’ll get to my first question at some point, but I–

Letter had forgotten the question:

MR. LETTER: Justice Gorsuch, would you mind repeating your first question? I apologize.

JUSTICE GORSUCH: Sure. What does that removal standard mean to you? If –if we shouldn’t water it down, what does it mean?

Occasionally, I’ve seen advocates get lost in a multi-page Breyer hypothetical. Gorsuch had two questions, which were fairly predictable. I was stunned he had forgotten the threshold question about the removal standard.

His answer was even more perplexing. The House of Representatives wrote the “for-cause” standard in the Dodd-Frank Act. Gorsuch asked the lawyer for the House what that provision meant. And Letter couldn’t, or wouldn’t answer the question:

MR. LETTER: Your Honor –and, again, I’m going to agree with Mr. Clement insofar as this. A lot of times, this is going to depend on context.

So, for example, and –and, again, this Court hasn’t defined what it means, so I don’t have a great answer yet from you all. You tell us what the Constitution –

It is not the Court’s job to tell the House what a statute means. That is the House’s job.

JUSTICE GORSUCH: Your client wrote it. So I’m –I’m just wondering what your client’s view is. And you say you disagreed with Mr. Clement on this, and now you say you agree. So I’m really quite confused.

Then things take a turn for the surreal.

MR. LETTER: I –I disagree with Mr. Clement about watering it down. We don’t think that it should be made basically at will.

But the –I –I will agree –

JUSTICE KAGAN: I don’t think Mr. Clement said that either.

At this point, I have no idea what Letter’s position is. It gets worse.

MR. LETTER: Oh, I –I apologize. I thought he was saying a watered-down version.

But, Justice Kagan, I will very strongly agree with Mr. Clement. It does depend on the –the circumstances.

Agree? Disagree? Who knows.

Later in the argument, Justice Kavanaugh asked another predictable question: the current CFPB director will remain in office after the 2020 election, when another President may be inaugurated:

JUSTICE KAVANAUGH: The next President in 2021 or 2025, or whenever, will have to deal with a CFPB director appointed by the prior President potentially for his or her whole term without being able –given your answer to Justice Alito –being able to do anything about that difference in policy.

Are you comfortable with that result? Does that give you any concern? Should we be concerned about that?

MR. LETTER: It does give me concerns but –and I’m –I’m very glad you brought that up because you’ve asked that and it’s a very key question, Your Honor.

What I would say, though, is let’s compare it to, for example –may I finish my

At that point, I think he ran out of time. Roberts let him finish his argument:

MR. LETTER: If you compare it to, for instance, the Fed, that has seven members who serve 14-year terms.

A President who serves a four-year term is, therefore, very likely to have almost no influence over the Fed. They won’t –I’ve not –I’m not a good mathematician, but I don’t think that means that they get to come anywhere close to appointing a majority of the Fed members.

So this is a problem that you have already decided to –to recognize.

What is that answer? Congress designed the CFPB’s terms (5-years) to straddle administrations. The answer should have been, “no, that was our design, we are not concerned.” But he didn’t say that. Also, with limited time, he said that Justice Kavanaugh’s question was a “very key question.” No kidding.

During my first moot court competition as a 1L, I responded to a question by saying, “your honor, that is a very important question.” During the feedback afterwards, the judge criticized me. He said, “I know it is important, that is why I asked it.” Often, when one of my student responds to a question with “that’s a good question,” I know he is unprepared, and is trying to buy time. When Justice Kavanaugh asks a question, it is “very key.” You don’t need to acknowledge it. And Kavanaugh wanted an answer.

Finally, after Letter’s extended time wound down, Roberts asked once again about Justice Gorsuch’s first question, which was not answered:

CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS: Mr. Letter, I think Justice Gorsuch’s first question is still on the table.

MR. LETTER: As I said what we –

JUSTICE GORSUCH: Thank you.

MR. LETTER: –what we think it means will be fact-dependent. It will depend –as I say, if it is –it can’t just be we have a policy difference. You’ve already –you’ve told me that.

You’ve already told me that it can’t simply be I don’t like you. We –we know that.

But, for example, if it’s a situation where the –the –the President says you are doing something that undermines national security, one of my core functions, or undermines foreign relations and I want –and I direct you to stop, an agency that says, no, I believe that that would be, Your Honor, cause for –that would meet the standard.

I will need to listen to the audio. This statement is really hard to follow from the transcript. I think he is hinting at Clement’s “constitutional backdrop” standard, with the reference to “foreign relations.” But I’m not sure.

Letter was not ready for this landmark case. His advocacy was not effective. The Respondent needed better friends. Truly, Super Tuesday was a bad day for the CFPB, all around.

In July, I watched Letter argue the ACA case before the Fifth Circuit. He was also ineffective. My impression at the time was that Letter simply wasn’t prepared to answer what were entirely predictable questions from the bench.

I’ll close with some free legal advice to Speaker Nancy Pelosi: if the House gets argument time in the Obamacare case (your petition was not granted), let former Solicitor General Donald Verrilli argue. He will do a better job. He saved Obamacare once. He is the person best suited to do it again. And this statement is against my own interest: I support Texas’s challenge. But I want the best possible advocacy for this important case. And Letter has not demonstrated he can provide it.

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Negative interest rates in the US are virtually guaranteed now

On October 19, 1987, the US stock market suffered the worst crash in its more than 200 year history, dropping more than 23% in a matter of hours.

It wasn’t just in the United States, either. More than 20 major stock markets around the world, from London to Hong Kong to Australia, fell by similar amounts.

And economists estimate that stocks worldwide lost roughly $1.7 trillion of value (approximately 10% of global GDP at the time) during the October 1987 crash.

The next morning on October 20th, the Federal Reserve announced that they would do whatever it takes to support the economy.

And ten days later they cut interest rates by 0.5%.

Yesterday the Federal Reserve did the same thing. Stock markets worldwide have been jittery lately due to Corona Virus fears, so the Federal Reserve stepped in and cut interest rates by 0.5%.

Honestly there are so many things that are remarkable about this—

First, the Fed already has a regularly scheduled meeting coming up in two weeks on March 17th. But apparently they thought the situation was so severe that they held an emergency meeting yesterday and hastily voted to cut interest rates by 0.5%.

Just think about what that means: 30+ years ago, the Fed cut rates by half a percent after, literally, the worst day in the history of the stock market.

Today’s stock market turmoil is nowhere near as bad as it was in 1987. Sure, the market is down around 10% over the past two weeks.  But where is the law that says the stock market isn’t allowed to fall? Capitalism is all about risk and reward. There are supposed to be periods of decline.

But to the Fed, a 10% correction is catastrophic… SOOOOO catastrophic, in fact, that they couldn’t even wait two more weeks for their regularly scheduled meeting. They had to take immediate action to prop up the stock market.

Ironically, this interest rate cut caused investors to panic even more. After the Fed made its announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted another 800 points.

It’s as if the entire market collectively thought, “Holy cow, if the Fed is taking EMERGENCY action, things must be even worse than we thought.” So the rate cut had the opposite effect as intended.

The Fed also managed to confuse the hell out of everyone… which is something they’ve been doing a lot of lately.

Last year, for example, even when they insisted that the US economy was booming and the unemployment rate was at a record low, they still cut rates by 0.75%… which is typically something they would only do when there’s economic weakness.

And then, yesterday at 10am, the Fed announced that “the fundamentals of the US economy remain strong. . .” But just an hour later they changed their tune and said, “risks to the US outlook have changed materially.”

Go figure, the market tanked even more.

Perhaps most comical is that the entire episode was forgotten by this morning… and the only story that seems to be driving the market is the resurrection of Joe Biden.

So the Fed basically blew a 0.50% rate cut and has absolutely nothing to show for it.

Here’s why that matters—

In the crash of 1987 when the Fed cut interest rates, its benchmark rate was 7.25%. So a half-percent cut was not especially significant.

In 2000 when the US economy entered recession (and the stock market started to fall from its peak), the Fed’s benchmark rate was 6.5%.  So they had plenty of room to cut rates.

In 2007 when the US economy entered recession yet again (and the stock market started to fall from its peak), the Fed’s benchmark rate was 5.25%– still plenty of room to cut rates.

But as of yesterday morning, the Fed’s benchmark interest was just 1.75%. So a 0.5% cut is pretty huge. Do the math– they cut interest rates by nearly a third, down to 1.25%.

This gives them VERY little room to cut rates further when the US economy enters recession, virtually guaranteeing that interest rates in the Land of the Free will go negative.

Remember that, in a typical recession, the Fed cuts interest rates by an average of 5%.

Rates right now are only 1.25%… so we could easily see rates at MINUS 3 to 4%.

Just imagine paying money to deposit your savings at the bank (Wells Fargo will have so much fun), or being paid to borrow money…

That is now a very likely possibility in the most advanced economy in the world.

I probably don’t have to tell you this, but negative interest rates will almost certainly be very positive for gold prices, and gold-related investments.

More on that soon… because this emotional roller coaster is far from over.

Source

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The CFPB Needed Better Friends

Yesterday, the Supreme Court heard argument in Seila Law v. CFPB. This case presented a direct challenge to the structure of the CFPB. However, the Trump Administration has declined to defend the agency, as it is currently structured. Specifically, Solicitor General Francisco argued that a sole director, who could only be removed “for-cause,” was inconsistent with the President’s powers. As a result, the Supreme Court appointed an amicus curiae to defend the CFPB.

That choice fell to Justice Kagan, the Circuit Justice for the Ninth Circuit. And she made a strategic decision. Rather than selecting someone like Deepak Gupta, a steadfast defender (and former employee) of the CFPB, she looked to the right, and picked Paul Clement. Yes, she selected the former Scalia clerk who (I suspect) agrees with fellow Scalia clerks, SG Francisco and Kannon Shanmugam.

At the time, I thought it was a shrewd move. Clement would be better served to hand-craft arguments for the conservatives on the bench, particularly Chief Justice Roberts, who may otherwise be inclined to rule against the CFPB. In effect, Kagan chose Clement as the equivalent of a counter-clerk. (I am not sure if Kagan has adopted the sometimes-practice of Justice Scalia, and picked counter-clerks for her own chambers).

Did Kagan’s move pan out? I don’t think so.

First, Paul Clement clashed a bit with Justice Gorsuch. At one point, Clement criticized Solicitor General Francisco’s position. He said, “I offer you two limiting principles, which I think is two more than the Solicitor General’s offered you.” That barb was gratuitous. And Gorsuch was right to put Clement in his place. Bob Barnes offered this account in the Washington Post:

Gorsuch did not seem to appreciate the argument or Clement’s suggestion that the case should be decided in a limited manner without reaching the constitutional issues. He got into a testy and extended exchange about whether Clement, a solicitor general under President George W. Bush who was arguing his 101st case at the court, was avoiding his questions.

“I want to be responsive,” Clement protested. When Gorsuch asked Clement at one point for a ‘limiting principle” for one of his arguments, Clement replied that he had two, which was two more than offered by the government.

“If we could avoid disparaging our colleagues and just answer my question, I would be grateful,” Gorsuch said with a terse smile.

The exchange between Gorsuch and Clement was quite long, and unusually brusque. Did Clement presume a level of familiarity with a Justice usually on his side? I doubt it. Clement has now argued 101 cases. He knows better.

Rather, my impression is that Clement’s argument seemed forced. Of course, Clement had his usual smooth and skillful presentation, and zealously advocated for the case to which he was appointed. But the presentation didn’t come across as genuine. He likely didn’t believe what he was saying, and it showed–at least from my vantage point. I almost felt like Clement was playing a role. He was acting. He was trying to come across as someone who wants the CFPB to survive, when in fact he probably agrees with the petitioners. And sometimes when you are playing a role, you push too hard. You work so hard to fight against your own priors. And in doing so, you think you need to take a more aggressive position than you otherwise would, because your usual lines are blurred. I have no inside knowledge about Clement’s strategy. I can only compare it to the many other arguments I’ve seen him make over the years. And this case felt different.

There is a second reason why Kagan’s selection of Clement didn’t pan out: Clement’s position was informed by his own position on the separation of powers. One of the most important questions in the case was whether “for-cause” protections could be added to cabinet members. Recently, Cass Sunstein argued that Congress could place “for-cause” protections for the Attorney General. I responded that this position is inconsistent with both the majority and dissent in Morrison v. Olson. But this argument is premised on the unique role the President plays in deciding whether to prosecute someone for criminal offenses. I don’t know that the Morrison majority supports the same argument for other cabinet positions. And I think Humprey’s Executor could be read to support for-cause provisions for certain cabinet officials. (Under Myers v. U.S., Justice Scalia’s Morrison dissent, all principal officers must be removable at will.)

A full-throated defender of the CFPB would have bit the bullet, and said that Morrison would allow placing “for-cause” protections on most, if not all cabinet officials, with the possible exception of the Attorney General. Indeed, an advocate like Sunstein (or perhaps Elizabeth Warren) would have said that even the Attorney General could be protected by a “for-cause” standard.

But Clement did not take that position. Instead, he developed a limiting principle about the removal power that I hadn’t considered before. (Indeed, it was this limiting principle that Gorsuch repeatedly asked about).

Clement explained:

Second, there’s a constitutional backstop, an absolute constitutional backstop, which is those authorities that the Constitution assigns directly to the President –so the State Department, the Defense Department, pardon power; there’s a few others –those cannot be subject under any circumstances to anything other than at-will removal.

In other words, if the Constitution assigns a power to the President, then the President’s supervision of the agencies that execute that power cannot be limited by a “for-cause” provision. Clement lists a few examples. First the State Department presumably premised on the President’s powers over foreign affairs. Second, the Defense Department, which involves the President’s powers as Commander in Chief. Third, the pardon power, which I think would relate to DOJ. These cabinet positions must be removable “at will.” I did not see this argument made in Clement’s brief; it was reserved for argument.

Justice Alito followed up and asked about “the EPA or Homeland Security.” Clement replied:

I think EPA is something that they probably could make subject to for-cause removal. I think Homeland Security, in its current form, they couldn’t, because some of the powers that were given to the Homeland Security Secretary by Congress were powers that were borrowed from the Defense Department.

And I think, if any of the authorities that are being exercised by a cabinet secretary are authorities that the Constitution assigns directly to the President, you probably can’t make that subject to -[for-cause removal standards].

Clement may be right. I need to give this limiting principle some more thought. But this argument goes beyond what the Morrison majority held. Chief Justice Rehnquist did not say that the removal power is limited where “the Constitution assigns [powers] directly to the President.” That position is much closer to Justice Scalia’s dissent, and takes a very unitary-executive flavor feel.

I think the natural response to Clement’s position is that the CFPB can take enforcement actions, and the discretion to bring those actions closely resembles the Attorney General’s decision to bring criminal prosecutions. I think a credible argument can be made that the Constitution does assign the relevant prosecutorial discretion to the President with respect to the CFPB. Congress can define the agency’s jurisdiction, but the decision whether to exercise that prosecutorial discretion belongs to the executive. Under that theory, the CFPB Director could not be protected by a “for-cause” standard.

These thoughts are tentative. But Clement’s Scalian limiting principle, in some regards, weakens the defense. What the CFPB needed was a Sunsteinian defender, who argued that even the Attorney General could be restricted. The Court would have rejected that argument, but the argument was a reasonable one, and should have been made. Here, Clement’s understanding of the separation of powers did not serve the CFPB well.

Ultimately, I think Kagan’s selection of Clement was too-shrewd-by-half. She would have been better off picking someone like Deepak Gupta, who could have given the CFPB the defense it needed. I suspect there are some defenders of the CFPB who will quietly agree with me.

The Supreme Court also gave some argument time to the House of Representatives as amicus curiae. Douglas Letter argued on behalf of the House. This was his third argument before the Supreme Court. I’ll be blunt: he was not effective. His argument stretches from pp. 66-77 of the transcript.

At several junctures, Justice Gorusch asked Letter the same question he asked Clement: what line would he draw. This question was very, very obvious. Everyone could have seen it coming. But Letter was either unable, or unwilling to answer the question. Consider this exchange between Letter and Justice Gorsuch:

Justice Gorsch: So where … would you draw the line, Mr. Letter, then? If –I guess I have two questions for you. First, if –if the standard isn’t watered down, what does that standard mean for removal in your mind? And, number two, what would be the stopping point for Congress’s ability to place high levels, serious impediments to presidential removal powers of -of members of the cabinet and other executives –what we think of traditionally as executive agencies?

MR. LETTER: Your Honor, I’m going to start with the second one. I don’t know the answer of how far Congress could –could go, Congress and the President together could go.

JUSTICE GORSUCH: Isn’t that a pretty vital question for us to be able to answer to decide this case?

MR. LETTER: I don’t think so, Your Honor, because you have decided in Humphrey’s Executor, Wiener, Buckley, Free Enterprise, Morrison versus Olson, you’ve decided all of those cases and you’ve said that removal protections are constitutional without answering that question.

I –I searched in vain. In none of those decisions have you –

JUSTICE GORSUCH: No, fair enough. But you’re at the podium, so take a shot at it.

(Laughter.)

After the laughter, Letter cited Morrison, but declined to address the specific question about whether cabinet officers, other than the Attorney General, could be protected:

MR. LETTER: They –I’m going to pick up on a word that –that I believe this Court has used, which is they should be modest. I think the test is, Your Honor, what –again, this Court has said, I believe it’s in Morrison, but you’ve said it in various situations, is it –does it so interfere with the executive’s ability to carry out his constitutional responsibilities?

I think that’s the test that this Court has –has said in a variety of separation-of-powers cases. I know that’s -that’s vague, but I can’t do better than what -what you have said.

Yes, you could do better. Clement did it. After some cross-talk, Justice Gorusch said:

JUSTICE GORSUCH: I’m sorry. I hope you’ll get to my first question at some point, but I–

Letter had forgotten the question:

MR. LETTER: Justice Gorsuch, would you mind repeating your first question? I apologize.

JUSTICE GORSUCH: Sure. What does that removal standard mean to you? If –if we shouldn’t water it down, what does it mean?

Occasionally, I’ve seen advocates get lost in a multi-page Breyer hypothetical. Gorsuch had two questions, which were fairly predictable. I was stunned he had forgotten the threshold question about the removal standard.

His answer was even more perplexing. The House of Representatives wrote the “for-cause” standard in the Dodd-Frank Act. Gorsuch asked the lawyer for the House what that provision meant. And Letter couldn’t, or wouldn’t answer the question:

MR. LETTER: Your Honor –and, again, I’m going to agree with Mr. Clement insofar as this. A lot of times, this is going to depend on context.

So, for example, and –and, again, this Court hasn’t defined what it means, so I don’t have a great answer yet from you all. You tell us what the Constitution –

It is not the Court’s job to tell the House what a statute means. That is the House’s job.

JUSTICE GORSUCH: Your client wrote it. So I’m –I’m just wondering what your client’s view is. And you say you disagreed with Mr. Clement on this, and now you say you agree. So I’m really quite confused.

Then things take a turn for the surreal.

MR. LETTER: I –I disagree with Mr. Clement about watering it down. We don’t think that it should be made basically at will.

But the –I –I will agree –

JUSTICE KAGAN: I don’t think Mr. Clement said that either.

At this point, I have no idea what Letter’s position is. It gets worse.

MR. LETTER: Oh, I –I apologize. I thought he was saying a watered-down version.

But, Justice Kagan, I will very strongly agree with Mr. Clement. It does depend on the –the circumstances.

Agree? Disagree? Who knows.

Later in the argument, Justice Kavanaugh asked another predictable question: the current CFPB director will remain in office after the 2020 election, when another President may be inaugurated:

JUSTICE KAVANAUGH: The next President in 2021 or 2025, or whenever, will have to deal with a CFPB director appointed by the prior President potentially for his or her whole term without being able –given your answer to Justice Alito –being able to do anything about that difference in policy.

Are you comfortable with that result? Does that give you any concern? Should we be concerned about that?

MR. LETTER: It does give me concerns but –and I’m –I’m very glad you brought that up because you’ve asked that and it’s a very key question, Your Honor.

What I would say, though, is let’s compare it to, for example –may I finish my

At that point, I think he ran out of time. Roberts let him finish his argument:

MR. LETTER: If you compare it to, for instance, the Fed, that has seven members who serve 14-year terms.

A President who serves a four-year term is, therefore, very likely to have almost no influence over the Fed. They won’t –I’ve not –I’m not a good mathematician, but I don’t think that means that they get to come anywhere close to appointing a majority of the Fed members.

So this is a problem that you have already decided to –to recognize.

What is that answer? Congress designed the CFPB’s terms (5-years) to straddle administrations. The answer should have been, “no, that was our design, we are not concerned.” But he didn’t say that. Also, with limited time, he said that Justice Kavanaugh’s question was a “very key question.” No kidding.

During my first moot court competition as a 1L, I responded to a question by saying, “your honor, that is a very important question.” During the feedback afterwards, the judge criticized me. He said, “I know it is important, that is why I asked it.” Often, when one of my student responds to a question with “that’s a good question,” I know he is unprepared, and is trying to buy time. When Justice Kavanaugh asks a question, it is “very key.” You don’t need to acknowledge it. And Kavanaugh wanted an answer.

Finally, after Letter’s extended time wound down, Roberts asked once again about Justice Gorsuch’s first question, which was not answered:

CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS: Mr. Letter, I think Justice Gorsuch’s first question is still on the table.

MR. LETTER: As I said what we –

JUSTICE GORSUCH: Thank you.

MR. LETTER: –what we think it means will be fact-dependent. It will depend –as I say, if it is –it can’t just be we have a policy difference. You’ve already –you’ve told me that.

You’ve already told me that it can’t simply be I don’t like you. We –we know that.

But, for example, if it’s a situation where the –the –the President says you are doing something that undermines national security, one of my core functions, or undermines foreign relations and I want –and I direct you to stop, an agency that says, no, I believe that that would be, Your Honor, cause for –that would meet the standard.

I will need to listen to the audio. This statement is really hard to follow from the transcript. I think he is hinting at Clement’s “constitutional backdrop” standard, with the reference to “foreign relations.” But I’m not sure.

Letter was not ready for this landmark case. His advocacy was not effective. The Respondent needed better friends. Truly, Super Tuesday was a bad day for the CFPB, all around.

In July, I watched Letter argue the ACA case before the Fifth Circuit. He was also ineffective. My impression at the time was that Letter simply wasn’t prepared to answer what were entirely predictable questions from the bench.

I’ll close with some free legal advice to Speaker Nancy Pelosi: if the House gets argument time in the Obamacare case (your petition was not granted), let former Solicitor General Donald Verrilli argue. He will do a better job. He saved Obamacare once. He is the person best suited to do it again. And this statement is against my own interest: I support Texas’s challenge. But I want the best possible advocacy for this important case. And Letter has not demonstrated he can provide it.

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Trump Slams ‘SPOILER’ Elizabeth Warren For Sinking Sanders

Trump Slams ‘SPOILER’ Elizabeth Warren For Sinking Sanders

President Trump spent Wednesday morning opining on the outcome of Super Tuesday, which saw former Vice President propelled to the top of the pack as Trump’s likely opponent (for now) in November.

“The Democrat establishment came together and crushed Bernie Sanders, AGAIN! Even the fact that Elizabeth Warren stayed in the race was devastating to Bernie and allowed Sleepy Joe to unthinkably win Massachusetts,” Trump tweeted just before 7 a.m.

20 minutes later, Trump tweeted that it was “So selfish for Elizabeth Warren to stay in the race,” as she has “Zero chance of even coming close to winning, but hurts Bernie badly.”

“So much for their wonderful liberal friendship. Will he ever speak to her again? She cost him Massachusetts (and came in third), he shouldn’t!”

Three hours later, Trump tweeted: “Wow! If Elizabeth Warren wasn’t in the race, Bernie Sanders would have EASILY won Massachusetts, Minnesota and Texas, not to mention various other states. Our modern day Pocahontas won’t go down in history as a winner, but she may very well go down as the all time great SPOILER!


Tyler Durden

Wed, 03/04/2020 – 10:33

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Canada Shock And Awe: BOC Unexpectedly Cuts By 50bps, Most Since Crisis; “Ready To Adjust Further”

Canada Shock And Awe: BOC Unexpectedly Cuts By 50bps, Most Since Crisis; “Ready To Adjust Further”

With Wall Street consensus expecting nothing from the Bank of Canada today, and even money markets were at beast hoping for a modest easing, moments ago the Bank of Canada “pulled a Fed” when it shocked traders after cutting rates by an unexpected 50bps, from 1.75% to 1.25% (with expectations for an unchanged print), citing the COVID-19 virus as “a material negative shock to the Canadian and global outlooks,” and as a result “monetary and fiscal authorities are responding.”

The 50bps rate cut was the biggest since the financial crisis.

If that wasn’t enough of an easing shock, in an even more foreceful dovish surprise, the bank said that “in light of all these developments, the outlook is clearly weaker now than it was in January. As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target. While markets continue to function well, the Bank will continue to ensure that the Canadian financial system has sufficient liquidity.

Some more highlights from the statement:

  • While Canada’s economy has been operating close to potential with inflation at target, the virus is a material negative shock to the Canadian and global outlooks
  • Before the outbreak, the global economy was showing signs of stabilizing. However, COVID-19 represents a significant health threat to people in a growing number of countries
  • Business activity in some regions has fallen sharply and supply chains have been disrupted, reflective in CAD and commodities
  • It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity
  • Consumption was stronger than expected, supported by healthy labour income growth
  • Residential investment continued to grow, albeit at a more moderate pace than earlier; meanwhile, both business investment and exports weakened
  • Rail line blockades, strikes by Ontario teachers, and winter storms are dampening economic activity in the Q1.
  • In light of all these developments, the outlook is clearly weaker now than it was in January
  • Bank will continue to ensure that the Canadian financial system has sufficient liquidity

While USDCAD sold off very modestly into the announcement to around 1.3330, it then spiked higher on the 50bp cut to 1.3415.

And with the central bank now clearly in dovish mode, the OIS is pricing in over 50% chance of an additional 25bps cut in April as the entire world sinks into a Japanese trap.


Tyler Durden

Wed, 03/04/2020 – 10:13

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Mike Bloomberg Is Suspending His Campaign, Endorses Biden

Mike Bloomberg Is Suspending His Campaign, Endorses Biden

Never in American history has a presidential candidate spent more to get less than Mike Bloomberg, making his buy-a-nomination bid a big bust.

Bloomberg spent $600 million to win as many states as every American who chose not to run: zero. (He has American Samoa to show for it.)

Is it any wonder that billionaire Mike Bloomberg, according to Axios, is suspending his campaign

Full Statement from Bloomberg Campaign:

“Three months ago, I entered the race for President to defeat Donald Trump. Today, I am leaving the race for the same reason: to defeat Donald Trump — because it is clear to me that staying in would make achieving that goal more difficult.

“I’m a believer in using data to inform decisions. After yesterday’s results, the   delegate math has become virtually impossible — and a viable path to the nomination no longer exists. But I remain clear-eyed about my overriding objective: victory in November. Not for me, but for our country. And so while I ill not be the nominee, I will not walk away from the most important political fight of my life.

“I’ve always believed that defeating Donald Trump starts with uniting behind he candidate with the best shot to do it. After yesterday’s vote, it is clear that candidate is my friend and a great American, Joe Biden.

“I’ve known Joe for a very long time. I know his decency, his honesty, and his commitment to the issues that are so important to our country — including gun safety, health care, climate change, and good jobs.

“I’ve had the chance to work with Joe on those issues over the years, and Joe as fought for working people his whole life. Today I am glad to endorse him — and I will work to make him the next President of the United States.

“I am immensely proud of the campaign we ran, the issues we raised, and the sweeping and achievable plans we proposed — including our Greenwood Initiative to right historic wrongs, fight racial inequality, and make the promise of equal opportunity real for the Black communities that have endured centuries of exploitation and discrimination. That work is fundamental to the future of our country — and to the more perfect union that each generation is called to build.

I am deeply grateful to all the Americans who voted for me — and to our incredibly dedicated staff and volunteers all around the country, who knocked on more than two million doors and held 12 million voter conversations in an incredibly short amount of time. No one outworked our team, and I couldn’t be prouder of everyone who was part of it. And I will be forever grateful to all the mayors, local and state legislators, Members of Congress, and many others who believed in me, endorsed my candidacy, and worked hard to unite voters around our vision. Your support and trust sustained me, and I look forward to working with you in the months and years ahead.

We made our campaign slogan a clear, simple promise: Mike will get it done. And I intend to keep working on the “it.” I will continue to work for sensible, common sense policy solutions that can get done. That includes passing gun safety laws that save lives. Fighting climate change. Improving health care. Making college more accessible and affordable. Creating economic opportunity for all. And helping mayors and local leaders across the country who are doing so much important work on all of these issues.

The past few months have been some of the most inspiring of my life, and I want to thank the tens of thousands of Americans, from Maine to California, whom I was privileged to meet — and who every day, with their voices and their ideas, made this campaign such a powerful experience. And I am intent on making it a lasting experience: I want my supporters to stay engaged, stay active and stay committed to our issues. I will be right there with you. And together, we will get it done.

After Senator Warren destroyed him in the last two debates, his odds collapsed in the prediction markets and last night was a disaster for the self-proclaimed ‘moderate’

Some other things ‘Mike’ said…

  • Bloomberg bet Joe Biden was toast. He was wrong. 

  • Bloomberg bet Democrats would rally around him as the Electable One. He was wrong.

  • Bloomberg bet he could buy support with TV ads, while avoiding tough media interviews. He was wrong.

  • Bloomberg bet on a brokered convention. That could still happen, but he appears dead wrong that Democrats would turn to him as their savior.

Finally, we are note that Americans may be breathing a sigh of relief after this announcement, as Mitch Nemeth recently noted, “given how drastically the scope of the president’s executive authority has grown, it is undeniable that a President Bloomberg would seek to bypass congressional action.”


Tyler Durden

Wed, 03/04/2020 – 10:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/32PLOj0 Tyler Durden