Month: March 2020

Prison officials in New York are worried that convicted sex offender Harvey Weinstein could end up like Jeffrey Epstein during his stay at Riker’s Island, according to TMZ, which reports that ‘high-ranking officials at NYC’s Department of Corrections’ say there’s ‘anxiety running through the ranks about another “Epstein incident” on their watch.’

For starters, we’re told one possibility is that Weinstein will be housed in a private section of Rikers Island’s North Infirmary Command, which is for high-profile inmates or guys with health issues — Harvey fits both. He could land in the “ANNEX,” with the other dudes falling apart.

Once he’s there and all checked in, our sources say HW will probably get his own cell with round-the-clock surveillance cameras watching his every move. And, when he’s out walking around, we’re told he’ll have DOC officials escorting him. There’s a reason for that. –TMZ

After a series of suspicious failures – including guards who allegedly fell asleep and mysteriously broken cameras – Jeffrey Epstein was found dead in his Manhattan jail cell. It was ruled a suicide.

TMZ reports that Weinstein is ‘milking his stay at the Bellevue Hospital’ after complaining of chest pains. He apparently has his own room there in conditions ‘much nicer than what’s waiting for him at Rikers.’

Weinstein faces at least five years in prison after Monday’s conviction.

Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

What we really need to know about the coronavirus is how it will affect us as individuals. The picture presented by governments is sketchy at best. Driven by agendas such as preventing panic and spinning the ramifications to lessen their toll on financial markets has made what they say unreliable.

The big issue facing all of us is what to expect and how to prepare.

Below is a list of five crucial issues before us.

1. Just how deadly is this thing and what are the odds you will get it?

2. Are we looking at citywide lock-downs such as those that have been instituted in other countries?

3. Is it expected to return time and time again and how long before we know? 

4. If I or someone I know appears to start showing symptoms, what is the best course forward?

5. What are the long and short term economic consequences of this outbreak?

It has become obvious this virus is very easy to contract, one well-respected expert predicted early on that 60 to 80 percent of people would get it before it ran its course. A week ago The Atlantic reported that according to Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch, the coronavirus “will ultimately not be containable.” His number is only slightly less comfortable,

 “Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19.” 

The professor went on to say this doesn’t mean all of those victims will become seriously ill and that “many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic.”

This reinforces what is being reported out of Daegu, South Korea where around 1900 Shincheonji Church members have been tested for coronavirus. 1300 had symptoms & 600 did not. Among those 1331 with symptoms, 87.5% were confirmed with the virus but just as troubling is that of those without symptoms, 70% were confirmed with coronavirus. In short, 420 tested positive but asymptomatic and 1,131 tested positive and symptomatic. This means 1,551 infected out of roughly 1900 plays out to an infection rate of 81%.

I’m not panicked but rather have resolved myself to the fact we are living in a world that may never be the same if this virus is as mean as it appears. Our lifestyles were already facing some rapid social adjustments but concerns of being stalked by such a virus are unsettling, to say the least. It does not help that our government has appeared to make an effort to mask the danger of the coronavirus from the American people not to avert panic but to protect the all-important stock market rally. Thus far many Americans are unaware of or under the impression, we have little to fear from this virus. This attempt to deny the threat raises the question of whether economic and political concerns are pushing common sense aside.

On another site a commentator wrote; Indications are that it generally takes a few weeks for the coronavirus to overwhelm someone and lead to death. If it does, which for many it does not, this implies that when we see deaths, those people have had the virus for weeks. If you don’t get better after two weeks you may eventually find yourself drowning in your own body fluids quarantined in a hospital. If you do get well after viral pneumonia, the virus most likely has permanently damaged your lungs and might just be hiding there in your respiratory cells, waiting to revisit, maybe more than once. If it returns your survival is even less likely.

This virus is particularly dangerous because, as noted, it may cause no symptoms at all in many carriers of the infection. This has lead to stringent measures being taken both inside and outside of China to stop its spread. In Italy people are being prevented from leaving towns, one wonders how severe the panic will be as this spreads across the globe. Store shelves in some areas are already beginning to empty as those most informed begin to plan ahead and take precautions that they may find themselves in a similar situation.

Not Enough Bed- You Don’t Want This!

We do know there are not enough beds to treat all those who react badly to the virus and require intense hospital care and some of these people will still die. The bill for such care will be massive and taxpayers will get stuck with much of it. It appears the best and only way to initially treat this virus is to treat it like the flu and hope for the best. Rest and keeping up your fluid intake is crucial. A big problem with getting good information about how fast this virus is spreading comes from the fact we simply don’t know, how long a person should be quarantined and how long the virus can live on different surfaces is still being debated.

Slow-moving incompetent overpaid bureaucrats within governments with strong agendas generate and control both the data and the narrative. Whether the goal of a government is to limit panic, deflect criticism from its failings, or simply generate the impression they have control of the situation we pay the price. The fact is, the long latency period before someone shows symptoms makes it is quite possible for someone to be carrying the virus but show no signs whatever when they arrive at the airport and pass through minor screening.

As to the long and short term economic consequences of this outbreak, it is difficult to say. Certain sectors of the economy will without a doubt take it squarely on the chin. Business involved in things where people gather or move about are in peril. Also, the disruption of production and deliveries will have a massive effect on business. Many small businesses without the financial resources to absorb losses and whether this storm will fail thus intensifying the downturn and exacerbate inequality. Companies will look at ways to shorten or reduce the weaknesses in their supply chains. This will have long-term consequences.

True to Erdogan’s prior threat that Europe would see 18,000 to as many as 30,000 refugees pour across European Union borders on Saturday after Turkey ‘opened the gates,’ it’s being reported that the number of migrants at Evros — a key land border between Turkey and Greece —  has now reached 15,000. 

Throughout Saturday the area became a war zone as thousands of refugees, urged on by Turkish authorities, attempted to cross into Greece en masse.

In places like the now completely closed Kastanies crossing (sealed by the Greek side as Turkish guards stood down and let migrants pass freely), thousands are stuck in ‘no man’s land’ between the borders, with the situation fast descending into chaos.

#Exclusive: Number of migrants at #Evros has now reached c. 15.000. Frontex to redeploy forces from other points to assist Greece in guarding EU external border with Turkey, @derspiegel has learned. Frontex Rapid response also a possibility but not yet https://t.co/RZ1G32zwOb

— Giorgos Christides (@g_christides) February 29, 2020

According to the Greek daily Ekathimerini:

This is the first time such a large group of migrants and refugees has attempted a crossing en masse at Evros, a move that Greek authorities are treating as a consequence of the announcement from the Turkish government on Thursday night that it would no longer prevent migrants trying to reach the European Union.

Germany’s Der Spiegal published footage showing migrants hurling tear gas grenades at Greek police, reportedly canisters provided by Turkish security themselves.  

#Evros now: Videos obtained by ⁦⁦@derspiegel⁩ show migrants throwing tear gas used (and acc to GR officials and simple logic provided) by Turkish Gendarmerie at Greek police preventing them from crossing the fence, near Kastanies. Human beings shamelessly weaponized pic.twitter.com/daWRZz9P1M

— Giorgos Christides (@g_christides) February 29, 2020

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis earlier vowed that “no illegal entries into Greece will be tolerated” – and has authorized a militarized response to seal border crossings with Turkey, which has included naval patrols in the Aegean to thwart migrant boats from passing.

At the Kastanies crossing Greek guards were seen firing tear gas on tightly packed groups of hundreds of migrants: 

Guards on Greece’s northeastern land border with Turkey made “deterrent use” of tear gas to disperse some 500 refugees and migrants trying to enter the country and the European Union after Ankara loosened controls on migrant flows.

Turkish border guards “have disappeared since this morning,” the mayor of the Greek border town of Orestiada, Vassilis Mavridis, said, adding that the group tried to enter through the Kastanies crossing.

It’s been confirmed that well over 30,000 mostly Syrian refugees and migrants on the their way to European border areas.

Unconfirmed reports say Athens may now even be sending tanks in support of commandos and helicopters already said to be there assisting in sealing the Evros border area. 

36,776 migrants & refugees have left Turkey for Greece since the 33 Turkish soldiers were killed in Syria on Thursday. Turkey carrying out its threat to open up the migrant trail again in response to lack of Western support for its Syria fight https://t.co/DsY45jBzW2

— Liz Sly (@LizSly) February 29, 2020

Angry over Thursday’s Russian-Syrian airstrike on Turkish troop positions in Idlib, which killed 33 Turkish soldiers, President Erdogan warned Europe to brace itself:

“We will not close these doors in the coming period and this will continue.”

Erdogan continued: “Why? The European Union needs to keep its promises. We don’t have to take care of this many refugees, to feed them,” he said.

1000s of migrants/refugees today again flock to Turkish-Greek border near Edirne. Crowd is growing by the hour.

You can see in this video by @egemengok_ that there are no guards on Turkish side.

People walking freely into no man’s land only to be blocked by Greek border guards. pic.twitter.com/bZo4fxFWTT

— Jenan Moussa (@jenanmoussa) February 29, 2020

By all accounts of the increasingly chaotic and strained situation on the ground, things are about to break. It does appear we’re seeing Erdogan’s “open the floodgates” in action or at least the very early beginnings.

Happening in Thermis, #Lesvos right now.

Migrants have reached the port in a rubber boat. A crowd is now stopping them from disembarking.

There are reports of violence against journalist. Some roads around #moria camp are being blocked by locals. No authorities on the scene. pic.twitter.com/GEejOnbMAT

— Max Zander (@The_Max_Zander) March 1, 2020

We could soon see disastrous 2015 levels at the worst time imaginable, considering the worldwide threat of the Coronavirus pandemic, health officials’ response to which is based precisely on keeping borders closed and/or tightly monitored.

Update (1100ET): It would appear that last minute panic-buying in stocks on Friday has been erased as spread betting markets are signaling a 500 point Dow futures drop at this evening’s open…

*  *  *

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Just last week, we discussed with our RIAPRO subscribers (Try for 30-days RISK FREE) the risk of the market not paying attention to the virus. To wit:

“With the market now trading 12% above its 200-dma, and well into 3-standard deviations of the mean, a correction is coming.’ But the belief is currently ‘more stimulus’ will offset the ‘virus.’

This is probably a wrong guess.

Extensions to this degree rarely last long without a correction. Maintain exposures, but tighten up stop-losses.”

Unfortunately, it escalated more rapidly than even we anticipated.

“It only took the S&P 500 six days to fall from an all-time high into correction levels, marking the broad index’s fastest drop of that magnitude outside of a one-day crash. Friday’s losses built on this week’s massive losses. The Dow and S&P 500 have fallen 14% and 13%, respectively, week to date. The two indexes were on pace for their biggest one-week loss since the 2008 financial crisis. The Nasdaq has lost 12.3% this week.” – CNBC

If that headline doesn’t startle you, you are also probably lacking a pulse.

However, it was two Monday’s ago, CNBC was cheering the market’s record highs and dismissing the impact of the virus as “it was just people getting sick in China.” We disagreed, which is why over the last several weeks, we have been detailing our warnings.

• Did The Market Just Get Infected?

• Market Believes It Has Immunity To Risks

• Market Vaccine For Virus Is More Fed’s “NotQE”

The correction this past week has been in the making for a while. It is why we have discussed carrying extra cash, adjusting our bond positioning, and rebalancing portfolio risks weekly for the past couple of months. Just as a reminder, this is what we wrote last week:

• We have been concerned about the potential for a correction for the last three weeks.

• We previously took profits near the market peak in January.

• However, we did extend the duration of our bond portfolio a bit, and changed some of the underlying mixes of bonds, to prepare for a correction.

• We are using this correction to rebalance some of our equity risks as well.

• The bull market is still intact, so it is not time to be bearish in terms of positioning, just yet.

• We are maintaining our hedges for now until we get a better understanding of where the markets are headed next.

While those actions did not entirely shield our portfolios for such a steep and swift correction, it did limit the damage to a great degree. 

This now gives us an opportunity to use the correction as an opportunity to “buy assets” which are now oversold and have a much improved “risk vs reward” profile. 

This is the advantage of “risk management” versus a “buy and hold” strategy. You can’t “buy cheap” if you don’t have any cash to “buy” with. 

I want to use the rest the article this week to quickly review the market after the brutal selloff this past week. Here are the questions we want to answer:

1. Is the correction over?

2. Is this a buying opportunity?

3. Has the decade long bull market ended?

Let’s review some charts, and I will answer these questions at the end.

Daily

On a daily basis, the market is back to a level of oversold (top panel) rarely seen from a historical perspective. Furthermore, the rapid decline this week took the markets 5-standard deviations below the 50-dma. 

To put this into some perspective, prices tend to exist within a 2-standard deviation range above and below the 50-dma. The top or bottom of that range constitutes 95.45% of ALL POSSIBLE price movements within a given period. 

A 5-standard deviation event equates to 99.9999% of all potential price movement in a given direction. 

This is the equivalent of taking a rubber band and stretching it to its absolute maximum. 

Importantly, like a rubber band, this suggests the market “snap back” could be fairly substantial, and should be used to reduce equity risk, raise cash, and add hedges.

If we rework the analysis a bit, we can see in both the top and bottom panels the more extreme oversold condition. Assuming a short-term bottom was put in on Friday, a reflexive “counter-trend” rally will likely see the markets retrace back 38.2% to 50% of the previous decline.

Given the beating that many investors took over the past week, it is highly likely any short-term rallies will be met with more selling as investors try and “get out” of the market.

Weekly

On a weekly basis, the rising “bull trend support” from the 2016 lows is clear. That trend also coincides with our longer-term moving average which drives our allocation models.

Importantly, the market decline this past week DID NOT violate that trend currently, which suggests maintaining our allocation to equity risk in portfolios currently. However, the two longer-term sell signals, bottom panels, are close to registering a “risk reduction” change to our portfolios. (This will reduce our model from 100% to 75%) 

With the market currently very oversold, individuals are quick to assume this is 2018 all over again. However, the technical backdrop from where the signals are being triggered is more akin to 2015-2016 (yellow highlights). Such suggests that a rally will likely give way to another decline before the final bottom is in place.

Monthly

This chart has ONE purpose, to tell us when a “bear market” has officially started. 

On a monthly basis, the bulls remain in control. The decline in the market this past week wiped out all the “Fed Repo” gains from last October. 

However, there are some VERY important points of concern that we will likely see play out over the rest of 2020.

The most important WARNING is the negative divergence in relative strength (top panel).  This negative divergence was seen at every important market correction event over the last 25-years. 

As we have noted previously: 

“The market had triggered a ‘buy’ signal in October of last year as the Fed ‘repo’ operations went into overdrive. These monthly signals are ‘important,’ but it won’t take a tremendous decline to reverse those signals.

It’s okay to remain optimistic short-term, just don’t be complacent.”

As shown in the bottom two panels, both of the monthly “buy” signals are very close to reversing. It will take a breakout to “all-time highs” at this point to keep those signals from triggering. This lends support to our thesis of how the rest of 2020 will play out.

Let’s Answer Those Important Questions

Is the correction over?

Given the extreme 5-standard deviation below the 50-dma, combined with the massive short-term oversold condition discussed above, it is very likely we have seen the bulk of the correction on a short-term basis. 

This is NOT an absolute statement, promise, or guarantee. It is the best guess. If there is a major outbreak of the virus in the U.S., or the Fed fails to act, or a myriad of other factors, another wave of selling could easily be sparked. 

Is this a buying opportunity?

For longer-term investors, people close to, or in, retirement, or for individuals who don’t pay close attention to the markets or their investments, this is NOT a buying opportunity. 

While we have, and will, likely add some “trading rentals” to our portfolio for a reflexive bounce, they will be sold appropriately, risk reduced, and hedges added accordingly. 

Let me be clear.

There is currently EVERY indication given the speed and magnitude of the decline, that any short-term reflexive bounce will likely fail. Such a failure will lead to a retest of the recent lows, or worse, the beginning of a bear market brought on by a recession.

Please read that last sentence again. 

Has the decade long bull market ended?

As noted in the last chart above, the bull market that began in 2009 has NOT ended as of yet. This keeps our portfolios primarily long-biased at the current time. 

With that said, our primary concern is that the impact on the global supply chain in China, South Korea, and Japan will have much more severe economic impacts than currently anticipated which will likely push the U.S. economy towards a recession later this year. (This is something the collapsing yield curve is already suggesting.)

Importantly, the global supply chain is an exogenous risk that monetary interventions can NOT alleviate. (Supplying liquidity to financial markets does not fix plants being closed, people slowing consumption, transportation being halted, etc.)

As noted in the monthly chart above, it is entirely possible that by mid-summer we could well be dealing with a recessionary economic environment, slower earnings growth, and rising unemployment. Such will cause markets to reprice current valuations leading to the onset of a bear market.

The purpose of the analysis above is to provide you with the information to make educated guesses about the “probabilities” versus the “possibilities” of what could occur in the markets over the months ahead.

It is absolutely “possible” the markets could find a reason to rally back to all-time highs and continue the bullish trend. (For us, such would be the easiest and best outcome.)

However, the analysis currently suggests the risks currently outweigh potential reward and a deeper correction is the most “probable” at this juncture.

Don’t take that statement lightly.

I am suggesting reducing risk opportunistically, and being pragmatic about your portfolio, and your money. 

Here are our rules that we will be following on the next rally.

1. Move slowly. There is no rush in making dramatic changes. Doing anything in a moment of “panic” tends to be the wrong thing.

2. If you are over-weight equities, DO NOT try and fully adjust your portfolio to your target allocation in one move. Again, after big declines, individuals feel like they “must” do something. Think logically above where you want to be and use the rally to adjust to that level.

3. Begin by selling laggards and losers. These positions were dragging on performance as the market rose and they led on the way down.

4. Add to sectors, or positions, that are performing with, or outperforming the broader market if you need risk exposure.

5. Move “stop-loss” levels up to recent lows for each position. Managing a portfolio without “stop-loss” levels is like driving with your eyes closed.

6. Be prepared to sell into the rally and reduce overall portfolio risk. There are a lot of positions you are going to sell at a loss simply because you overpaid for them to begin with. Selling at a loss DOES NOT make you a loser. It just means you made a mistake. Sell it, and move on with managing your portfolio. Not every trade will always be a winner. But keeping a loser will make you a loser of both capital and opportunity. 

7. If none of this makes any sense to you – please consider hiring someone to manage your portfolio for you. It will be worth the additional expense over the long term.

While we remain optimistic about the markets currently, we are also taking precautionary steps of tightening up stops, adding non-correlated assets, raising some cash, and looking to hedge risk opportunistically on any rally.

Everyone approaches money management differently. This is just our approach to the process of controlling risk.

We hope you find something useful in it.

Summary:

• Rhode island announces “presumptive” case; patient recently visited Italy
• South Korea confirms 18th death, officials seek murder charges for founder of church at epicenter of outbreak
• American Physical Society cancels major scientific conference
• Juventus quarantines U23 squad
• Iran death toll hits 54 as Trump offers aid
• Thailand, Australia report first deaths
• Spain case count hits 73; France hits 100
• Independent scientist says it could have been spreading in WA for six weeks, with hundreds infected
• Italian cases number more than 1,100; South Korea reports more than 3,700
• Italian death toll hits 29
• Luxembourg reports first cases, says it’s linked to Italy
• UK cases rise to 35 as 12 new cases confirmed; 2 cases infected inside UK
• UK health secretary says China-style lockdowns “an option”

* * *

If there’s one thing we’ve learned since the coronavirus outbreak went global in January, it’s that a lot can change in 24 hours. Seemingly overnight, the viral hysteria has apparently arrived in the US, alongside the news of the first virus-related death in Washington State.

Hoarding has already begun. President Trump has issued “do not travel” warnings affecting ‘hot zones’ in Italy and South Korea. In Italy, the Level 4 State Department advisory affects the hardest-hit provinces of Lombardy and Veneto, where ‘community transmission’ has already been confirmed.

In South Korea, it affects the city of Daegu. In Europe, France and Switzerland have banned large gatherings over 5,000, and cancelled all sporting events. Games, events and conferences across the world have been cancelled as airlines continue to cut back on routes, with the focus turning to Italy and South Korea.

Adding to the growing list of cancellations, the American Physical Society has cancelled one of the world’s major international scientific conferences just a day before it was supposed to begin.

In South Korea, Samsung announced that a worker at its smartphone plant in Gumi had contracted the virus. The pace of newly confirmed cases is growing so rapid, it’s becoming difficult to keep up: The number of confirmed cases worldwide has reached nearly 87,000, with more than 7,000 cases outside mainland China. The virus has now been detected in at least 60 countries and/or territories. South Korea remains home to the biggest outbreak outside of China with more than half of all cases outside the mainland. As of Sunday afternoon in Rome, Italian health authorities had reported 1,128 cases, while the death toll climbed to 29, according to Al Jazeera.

As frustration against a strange cult-like church at the center of the country’s outbreak intensifies, officials are pushing for the leaders of a church at the center of the country’s outbreak be investigated on murder charges as the country’s death toll hit 18.

With 71 cases confirmed in the US (73 if you count the “presumptive” case announced by Illinois public health officials late last night and a new case in Rhode Island), the outbreak has spread much more quickly than most Americans had realized, though we should also point out that the bulk of these cases were already quarantined when they were confirmed, since they were evacuees from either the ‘Diamond Princess’, or ‘Wuhan’.

Perhaps the most shocking news out of Italy on Sunday was that Juventus, the Serie A soccer club based in the northern city of Turin, has quarantined its entire under-23 squad after 3 players on an opposing team and their coach tested positive for the virus. The team has also cancelled training and suspended matches, including amatch against Inter Milan, a team that recently played a match before an empty stadium has been postponed.

According to the Daily Mail, the Serie A outfit announced the decision after their youth team played Serie C Pianese, a team that has seen three players and a manager test positive for the virus, causing an uproar in European soccer.

Following President Trump’s Saturday press conference, where he and Vice President Mike Pence acknowledged the virus coronavirus-related death outside Seattle in Washington State (note: the deceased was identified as a male, following earlier inaccurate reports claiming the victim was female), the president attended CPAC’s annual conference, where he claimed during his keynote address that the US would be willing to help the Iranians contain their brutal outbreak, the NYT reports. Officials in Washington State fear the virus may have been circulating in the state for weeks.

“If we can help the Iranians, we have the greatest health care professionals in the world,” he said, adding that “we would love to be able to help them.”

“All they have to do is ask,” he said.

Trevor Bedford, a cancer researcher, claimed that the virus may have been spreading in Washington for as long as six weeks, and said that hundreds of people may already be infected.

An update, because I see people overly speculating on total outbreak size. Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections. Expect more analyses tomorrow.

— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) March 1, 2020

Over in Iran, officials said the total number of confirmed cases had climbed to 978, with 54 confirmed deaths, just days after government officials denied reports that 50 had died in the city of Qom. Recently, the BBC reported that the true death toll has already surpassed 200.

Hoping to quell the growing sense of panic following a brutal week for US stocks, Trump appealed to the press and politicians in Washington to “not do anything to incite a panic” during his press conference, where he also said he was ‘considering’ closing the southern border, a remark that elicited a frustrated response from the Mexican foreign ministry.

Courtesy of NYT

During separate Sunday appearances on Fox News, HHS Secretary Alex Azar said 75,000 test kits are now available to detected cases of the virus, while VP Pence said a vaccine won’t be available this season (some experts are saying it won’t be ready for next season, either). More cases are expected, Azar said, adding that “we don’t know where this will go,” as public health officials in Washington, California, Oregon, Illinois and Rhode Island scramble to trace the contacts and movements of the newest cases.

About 90 minutes ago, public health officials in Rhode Island announced the state’s first “presumptive” case of the virus, reporting that the individual is in their 40s and recently returned from a trip to Italy in mid-February, before the outbreak in that country had accelerated, Boston 25 News reports. That’s a relief: The clear path of origin means that the latest American patient isn’t another case of “unknown origin”. Health officials are still assuming the worst: That the lack of a clear source of transmission for at least 4 American patients indicates that potentially dozens of others might also be infected, even if they aren’t yet exhibiting symptoms.

After emerging as a model of outbreak suppression, Thailand reported its first virus-linked death on Sunday.

Elsewhere, Australia, a country with only 25 confirmed cases (several from the ‘Diamond Princes’), has reported its first COVID-19-linked death: An elderly man from the remote city of Perth who had traveled aboard the Diamond Princess became the first Australian to die from the virus. The 78-year-old man and his 79-year-old wife were among the 164 Australians who traveled aboard the ‘Diamond Princess’. According to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, the elderly couple were initially flown to Howard Springs in the Northern Territory where Australia’s Diamond Princess evacuees were sent.

Speaking of the Diamond Princess, Japan’s Health and Labor Minister Katsunobu Kato said Sunday that the last passengers and crew, including the captain, had disembarked on Sunday.

Great, now go out and find that thing an iceberg! https://t.co/K0vGzJmzkD

— Mark B. Spiegel (@markbspiegel) March 1, 2020

While Italy remains the uncontested epicenter of the outbreak in Europe, twelve more people have tested positive for the virus in the UK, including a second case of an individual believed to have caught the virus inside the country, bringing the total to 35. Health officials are trying to trace a 35-year-old man from Shenzhen who had reportedly been working in Bristol, the Guardian reports.

 

During an appearance on the Andrew Marr, the UK’s premier political talk show, on Sunday, UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock confirmed that the NHS is bringing doctors out of retirement to fight a potential outbreak, before adding that the UK is leaving the option of China-style, city-wide lockdowns on the table, saying the government needs to consider all available tools:

Marr asked Hancock: “China, of course, isolated entire cities. Is it conceivable under any circumstance, you try and cut off the city in this country?”

Hancock replied: “There’s clearly a huge economic and social downside to that. But we don’t take anything off the table at this stage, because you’ve got to make sure that you have all the tools available, if that is what’s necessary. But I want to minimise the social and economic disruption.”

As of Sunday, Spain has confirmed 73 cases, according to Fernando Simón, the head of the country’s Center for the Coordination of Health Emergencies and Alerts. He added that 90% of the cases were imported or related to imported cases of the virus.

In France, which has reported 100 cases, the Louvre Museum closed on Sunday, and said it would remain shut as workers objected to the risk of catching the virus while working among the millions of visitors who pass through the museum, the AP reports. Luxembourg has reported its first case, a traveler who recently returned from Italy. Health Minister Paulette Lenert told reporters the patient is a man in his 40s, per Al Jazeera.

As Brazil confirms a second case, international health authorities pointed out that the fact Africa has only reported 3 cases so far, one in Egypt, one in Algeria and one in Nigeria, is something of a miracle, even as the Nigerians have identified 100 people who may have come into contact with the sick individual, as France 24 reports.

Finally, we’d like to leave readers with a glimpse of levity before we go: We’d like to draw readers’ attention to the front page of the Saturday Star, a Canadian daily. 

This is the only way Canadians can process any type of information pic.twitter.com/jAs29Le9si

— Chase Mitchell (@ChaseMit) February 29, 2020

You know it’s bad when the Canadian newspaper editors start whipping out the Wayne Gretzky comparisons.

The dangerous situation and open state of war between Turkey and Syria, and increasingly by extension with Russia backing its ally Damascus, has continued to escalate dramatically in the last 24 hours. Hours after Syrian national forces brought down yet another Turkish drone operating over Idlib province, and following last Thursday’s major air attack which killed 33 Turkish troops, two Syrian Air Force jets have been shot down reportedly by Turkey’s military.

Turkey’s defense ministry said in a Twitter post on Sunday it downed two SU-24 aircraft in response to its drone being earlier shot down. It took place over western Idlib.

Syria’s SANA news agency confirmed the shoot downs but said the pilots escaped unharmed. Images of two pilots parachuting safely to the ground were also widely circulated in the wake of the incident. 

Damascus has announced it is prepared to down any foreign aircraft over Idlib province, saying a No Fly Zone is in effect, with a defense official telling SANA any aircraft “that violates our airspace will be treated as a hostile flight that must be shot down and prevented from achieving its objectives.” 

Turkey for its part is attempting to cool tensions with Russia, declaring over the weekend its forces only intend to target “regime soldiers” and with “no intention of clashing with Russia,” according to new statements by Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar.

pic.twitter.com/LH51C9EWeJ

— Danny Makki (@Dannymakkisyria) March 1, 2020

Akar also claimed the following disputed casualties Turkey has inflicted on the Syrian Army in response to last Thursday’s Turkish troop deaths:

• 2,212 Syrian soldiers
• 8 Syrian helicopters
• 103 tanks
• 72 artillery and rocket launchers 
• 3 air defense systems

Military analysts have pointed out that Turkey’s claims have been hugely inflated over the past days, with Damascus yet to confirm Turkey’s claimed numbers.

SYRIA – 2 regime jets downed in southern Idlib. pic.twitter.com/zb0KdhY3Mx

— Ali Özkök (@Ozkok_A) March 1, 2020

Meanwhile, the air war over Idlib centered on growing Turkish intervention looks to continue in the coming week, and the big question remains the extent to which Russia will allow it.

And according to regional war correspondent Elijah Magnier, Syria is ready to engage further: “The Syrian Army and its allies have installed their own anti-air missile defense system over Idlib and Saraqeb to continue the military operation. Any drone or jet is expected to be downed,” he said.

Authored by Eric Zuesse via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

The events that led to this critical impasse were reported by me here on Friday night, and that report thus continues here, in order to provide context to these events.

The spokesperson for the Islamist party of Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan has called upon all of NATO to go to war against Syria for Syria’s having killed dozens of Turkey’s troops in order for Syria to defeat Turkey’s invasion and military occupation of Syria’s Idlib Province, which borders on Turkey. Going to war against Syria would mean going to war also against Russia, which is in Syria to protect Syria’s sovereignty over its own territory. If the United States accepts that Turkish proposal, then World War III will consequently result.

Darius Shahtahmasebi reported for Russia’s RT News on the morning of February 28th,

Turkey is calling for NATO’s protection after 33 of its soldiers were killed in an apparent Syrian airstrike in Idlib, allegedly while fighting in terrorist ranks. In the regional chaos that ensues, only one player stands to gain.

Speculation over what’s to come next has seen #article 5 trending on Twitter in the hours following the attacks, after Omer Celik, spokesman for Turkey’s ruling AKP party, indicated to reporters in Ankara that he was looking at requesting formal NATO protection against Damascus and, by proxy, the Russian air force.

“We call on NATO to [start] consultations. This is not [an attack] on Turkey only, it is an attack on the international community. A common reaction is needed. The attack was also against NATO,” Celik told Turkish media.

Article 5 of the NATO treaty says an attack on one member is an attack on them all.

The US State Department also condemned the attack, stating that it stands by its “NATO ally Turkey.” It further stated that it continues to “call for an immediate end to this despicable offensive by the Assad regime, Russia and Iranian-backed forces.” Never one to let us down, the US envoy to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchinson also told journalists that “everything is on the table.”

This is the opportunity for U.S. President Donald Trump to join his opposition, Democratic Party’s, and even his own Party’s, hate-Russia campaign, by unleashing World War III, if he wants to. (For example, it was a unified Congress, both Parties, that forced him, on 17 July 2018, to reverse himself and say that Russia had assisted in his having become the U.S. President. He needed to be forced in order to say he agreed with that statement.)

Internally, within Islamist-ruled Turkey, the official Anadolu Press Agency sub-headlined one English-language news report, “Crisis in Idlib has crossed all limits, says presidential spokesman after regime attack martyrs 33 Turkish troops” and opened, “Turkey’s presidential spokesman on Friday called on the international community to take measures to de-escalate tensions in Syria after dozens of Turkish soldiers were martyred in a late night attack by the regime forces.” No mention was made about those ‘martyrs’, that this had occurred in Syrian territory, where Turkish forces were invaders and military occupiers, and that the ‘regime’ they referred to is Syria’s committedly and ideologically secular, non-sectarian, Government, which is the only internationally recognized Government that Syria has (but from which Islamist Turkey is now trying to seize Syria’s Idlib Province and to include it within Turkey’s own territory).

By 7PM Turkish time on Friday the 28th, Firat Kozok of Bloomberg News headlined “Turkey Says It Has No Choice But to ‘Loosen’ Stance on Refugees” and reported that

Turkey is pressed by developments in Syria’s Idlib and has no choice but to “loosen” its policy of preventing refugees from travelling on to Europe, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s communications director Fahrettin Altun told reporters in Ankara.

“If Idlib falls, then millions of Syrian refugees will try to escape to Turkey and Europe. Turkey no longer has the possibility to provide resources for and help these people,” Altun said.

This is applying pressure upon the European member-nations in NATO to either join Turkey’s now very hot war against both Syria and Russia, or else to become faced with Turkey’s release of the tens of thousands of ‘rebels’ (mainly jihadists) whom Turkish forces in Syria’s Idlib Province have been protecting against military fire from Syria’s Army and from Russia’s Air Force.

With Italian cases of coronavirus surpassing 800 on Friday and 21 dead, life inside northern Italy’s so-called ‘red zone’ has ‘taken on a surreal air,’ according to the Washington Post.

With 50,000 people under a quarantine 40 miles southeast of Milan – stretching across 11 villages and towns – a network of dozens of roadblocks are operated by the police and army in order to keep residents from traveling, and prohibit visitors from entering. The situation has caused residents obvious distress.

Outside a small bar on the edge of northern Italy’s coronavirus “red zone,” patrons watch as paramedics head-to-toe in protective suits, gloves and face masks attend a house call across the street.

One of the figures in white describes the patient’s cough to a colleague over the phone. The bar flies with rumors.

“We’re all going to get it,” said 22-year-old Claudi Ghidoni, sitting at a plastic table with two friends, the first time she said she’s been out of the house since Italian cases of covid-19 dramatically jumped last week. –WaPo

Disturbingly, however, the Post notes that the checkpoints “have become handover points with the outside world. Some come to give their relatives or friends gifts of cheese, other hand over documents caught up on the other side. A woman comes to collect specialist cat food dropped off by a friend.”

The Post interviewed 20 residents inside the quarantine zone by phone or across roadside checkpoints, some of whom said that the initial panic had morphed into ongoing concern and confusion.

In San Fiorano village, the mayor announced three elderly deaths from coronavirus but that he’s unable to find out how many people in the village have tested positive. He added that with funerals and burials suspended, the dead are still awaiting proper burials.

Only the most necessary stores, like pharmacies and supermarkets, remain open and have limits on the number of customers that can enter at a time. Residents are asked to avoid gatherings and crowds.

With post offices closed, the elderly are unable to pick up their pensions.

“Everyone struggles,” said Mario Ghidelli, the San Fiorano mayor, saying other mayors are frustrated with the level of information they were receiving. “We need to give answers to our citizens.”

He said that last blessings were given for the three residents who died, all over the age of 69, in the presence of a few family members, but the coffins had to be placed in a municipal crypt until undertakers are available. –WaPo

“People are getting a little crazy,” said 49-year-old Guiseppe Malusardi as he rode his bicycle past a police checkpoint in the village of Casalpusterlengo. “Everything’s closed.“

Still, some Italians are making the best of the situation.

“It’s fantastic,” said 54-yeawr-old Ambrogio Pezzi as he walked along with his golden retriever – adding that he’s enjoyed the two-week break from his dentistry work and more time with his family. “We are like hamsters in a wheel, running around and around and not realizing we are always running in the same spot. Maybe this is a lesson to slow down and enjoy things.“

Read the rest of the report here.