AAPL Pumps’n’Dumps After Boosting Buyback But Pulls Guidance Despite “Seeing Pick-Up In April”

AAPL Pumps’n’Dumps After Boosting Buyback But Pulls Guidance Despite “Seeing Pick-Up In April”

The big kahuna has printed and while at first glance it would appear everything is awesome – bigger dividend, boosted buybacks (by $50 billion), and optimism from CEO Cook – shares have given up the early spike gains.

Apple’s 2Q revenue was $58.3 billion, a gain of 1% from a year ago and better than the $54-billion average analyst prediction.

Net income was $11.2 billion, down from a year ago but still above estimates.

On a regional basis, not entirely surprisingly, China suffered the most:

  • America’s revenue was little changed at $25.47 billion.

  • Europe gained 9.5% to $14.29 billion.

  • Greater China fell 7.5% to $9.455 billion.

  • Japan and the rest of Asia Pacific also posted declines.

Cook on when stores will reopen:

Soon, like within the next 1-2 weeks, we’ll open Austria  Europe and Australia, and I would say by the first half of May, somewhere in that ballpark, I think the initial stores in the U.S. will open, just a few, not a large number, and we’re going to look at the data and make a decision city by city, county by county, depending on the circumstances in that particular place. We probably won’t be the first to reopen probably anywhere.

“In terms of the offices in Cupertino, it will be at least early June.”

By product, there was some ugliness:

  • iPhone revenue dropped from 6.7% from a year ago to $28.96 billion (better than the $25.42 billion expected).

  • Mac sales were down 2.9% to $5.35 billion (well above expectations of $4.52 billion).

  • iPad revenue fell 10% to $4.37 billion (handily better than expected revenues of $3.88 billion)

On products:

“The reception has been very good” for the iPad Pro and Magic Keyboard, iPhone SE, and new MacBook Air.

But on the bright side, AAPL was saved by Services and Wearables:

  • Services surged 17% to a record of $13.35 billion (very modestly worse than the expected $13.36 billion)

  • Wearables jumped 23% to $6.28 billion (worse than the expected $6.41 billion though)

Cook on services:

The pandemic cut both ways. On things like App Store and TV+ and some other of the content businesses, it had a positive effect clearly. And then the negative effect it would have it would have was once the repair locations closed, AppleCare went down. And of course the component of advertising that we have was hit hard in month of march as well.

Services now a record 22.9% of total revenue:

 

So product revenues were lower but beat expectations and wearables and services saw revenues higher but missed expectations.

Of course, boosting the dividend and buyback is all that shareholders would normally care about, and CEO Tim Cook offered some more hope, telling Bloomberg in an interview:

“We’ve seen a further change in the last part of March and first part of April were very depressed and then we’ve seen a pick up relative to that period of time in the second half of April that I would attribute to partially the new products we were able to launch at end of March and early April, the economic stimulus and probably some level of people getting a bit more used to that this is going to last a little while, that’s it not a really short term thing.”

The initial euphoric jump in the stock is fading as despite the bullish uptick in April, Apple pulls it Q3 guidance…

“We’re not projecting what we’re going to do this quarter due to the lack of certainty and the lack of visibility that we got.”

That’s the first time in a long time and will be taken as a negative sign. While most companies have abandoned their outlook for 2020, many have continued to forecast three months out… and that has affected shareholder optimism.

So  – what about that v-shaped recovery he told Trump about?


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 16:52

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J. Crew Preparing To File For Bankruptcy As Soon As This Weekend

J. Crew Preparing To File For Bankruptcy As Soon As This Weekend

Apparel company J. Crew may file for bankruptcy as soon as this weekend, according to CNBC, which notes that the privately held company is scrambling to secure $400 million in financing to fund operations after filing.

CNBC‘s sources, which spoke on condition of anonymity due to the disclosure of confidential information, say the plans are not yet finalized, and that the timing of the filing could change.

The New York-based retailer had already been struggling under a heavy debt load and sales challenges, as it suffered criticism that it fell out of touch with its once-loyal customers. In the past few years, the brand lost both its longtime design chief, Jenna Lyons, and famed retail executive Mickey Drexler.

Those challenges have been exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic that has forced stores to shutter, throwing the retail industry into a state of disarray. –CNBC

The company currently operates 182 J. Crew retail stores and 140 Madewell stores aimed at a younger demographic, which was launched four years ago in the hopes of spinning it off in an IPO which could have helped surmount its crippling debt. The company faced pushback from creditors.

J Crew stunned Wall Street when it swung to a profit of $1.5 million for the fiscal year ended Feb. 1, compared with a $74.4 million loss a year earlier. Total revenues increased 2% to $2.54 billion, though gains were largely driven by the company’s Madewell denim-focused brand, while sales at J Crew have mostly languished.

According to Moody’s, J. Crew had roughly $2.5 billion in sales for its year ending Feb. 1, and an estimated $93 million in total liquidity as 2021 debt maturities approach. In 2011, the company was acquired by TPG Capital and Leonard Green & Partners for $3 billion.

The preppy retailers now-former CEO and longtime creative engine Mickey Drexler stepped aside in 2017 follow a debt swap that staved off a bankruptcy filing, and although his successors have at least managed to wring more growth out of Madewell, the leverage buyout that took the company private more than ten years ago left it with more debt than it can reasonably manage: A nearly $1.7 billion albatross.

Like every other US retailer, J Crew shut its stores in March along with most of its competitors. Sales have plunged, though some see green shoots in some preliminary foot-traffic data.

The company has laid off tens of thousands of workers, and it’s unclear how many of its stores will be operational when all of this is over.

When it became clear in March that the Madewell IPO wasn’t going to happen, J Crew started negotiating with a group of lenders as it scrambled to find capital to pay off a loan maturing later in 2020.

The company, which has been working with advisers from investment bank Lazard and law firm Weil Gotshal & Manges, has a $4 million payment due at the end of April which it says it cannot make.

The company restructured its debt outside of bankruptcy in 2017 in a controversial deal that swapped $500 million of bonds due in 2019 for new securities backed by the intellectual property behind the J.Crew brand. Its lenders include Anchorage Capital Group LLC and Blackstone Group Inc.’s GSO Capital Partners LP.

The company, which was founded in the early 1980s as a catalogue retailer, has long been synonymous with the preppy look in the US.

Of course, this is just the latest bad news for the commercial real estate market and, by extension, the CMBX market which has already been battered by the crisis, making one newly minted Florida billionaire even richer.

While J Crew is more of a specialized retailer, mall anchor tenants – Neiman Marcus, JC Penny –  have been hit especially hard by the outbreak, as malls are transformed into ghost towns as whether or not they can reopen after the crisis will depend entirely on the government. Neiman Marcus is reportedly also in the process of finalizing talks with lenders to allow its stores to continue operating as it prepares a bankruptcy filing. And JC Penney, which is also reportedly preparing to file, is in talks for $1 billion in bankruptcy financing.

But as one twitter wit joked, the company might want to consider updating its website.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 16:48

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A Perspective on the EU

I thought I’d pass along this item from Claire Berlinski‘s newsletter (subscribe here), written by a pseudonymous friend of hers:

The project of a united Europe has never been objectionable to me, despite its status as an object of reflexive loathing on the American right. We’ve forgotten just what a bloody and dangerous font of violence Europe used to be—costing hundreds of thousands of American lives in the process—and so we forget that a deadening bureaucracy suffocating the Continent is a much preferable alternative to the historical precedent.

The European Union then is preferable to the bloc politics and subjugation that characterized most of European history. Churchill understood it, and the French strategists who saw the value in a superstructure tying Germany to themselves understood it.

Nevertheless the EU is dead. Consider:

  • The European Union was unable to prevent or persuade against the secession of one of its largest constituent nations.
  • The European Union was unable to play any meaningful role in a pandemic that ravaged several of its member states.
  • The European Union was unable to prevent or preclude a Russian military mission entering one of its major member states.
  • The European Union was unable to prevent, or bring consequences for, one of its member states from sliding from democratic liberality to authoritarian dictatorship.
  • The European Union was unable to muster the political will to withstand pressure from the Communist Party of China.
  • The European Union was unable to provide credible security guarantees to its member states as NATO went into precipitous decline.

The European Union is dead. Something will arise in its place. But this is Europe: we should be prepared for the possibility it will be something worse.

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Abortion: A Syllabus

This past year, my wife Amanda Schwoerke and I co-taught a reading group on “Abortion: Law, Policy, Ethics.” We taught the course primarily to learn the subject ourselves. Abortion may be central to Supreme Court politics, but it’s outside our academic specialties, and usually too sensitive a topic for the faculty lounge. So, except with family or close friends, we hadn’t had many serious conversations about the ethics of abortion since college.

Law schools generally cover abortion in one of two ways. First, everyone has a few awkward and uncomfortable days on the topic in an introductory Con Law class, where the only people willing to talk about it are those who already have strong views. Neither of us were inclined to discuss the issue much in our own 1L class (where we happened to sit next to each other, something I remind my students whenever they fill out the seating charts). Second, there may be upper-level classes on Reproductive Rights, which often tend—at least from the syllabi we reviewed—to focus on policy and implementation rather than first principles.

This is a problem. Abortion poses important and difficult ethical questions, which lawyers (and others!) should be ready to think through seriously. And with the Court’s membership changing, it’s not enough to just assume the existing doctrinal framework. So we decided to put together our own course—and, below, to share our syllabus and some advice.

The class was intended as a lesson in “how the other half thinks.” We have our own views, of course; but we wanted the students to wrestle with each other’s views. So we taught the course pass/fail, so there wouldn’t be any incentive to agree with us.

To keep the temperature low, class was mostly held in our living room, with coffee and dessert. We tried to balance the readings between pro-choice and pro-life perspectives. The students were roughly even (say, 60-40 pro-choice), helped by informal recruitment efforts on their part. This helped avoid some of the dogpiling one might see in an 80-20 or 90-10 class.

As to how well we did, we’ll have to wait for the student evaluations! Two quick reactions:

  • At the end of the class, a substantial number of students, though not all, found “the personhood question” inescapable. There’s an affectation in modern abortion discourse that we can somehow transcend the hard ethical questions by focusing on policy questions instead. This turned out not to be true, at least for a large group of our students.
  • Covering the constitutional law of abortion is very difficult. As you can see on the syllabus, there’s not enough space to cover everything relevant. Whatever one thinks of Griswold or Roe or Casey on their own terms, there are also deep questions to be asked about Fourteenth Amendment fundamental-rights jurisprudence—about the Slaughterhouse Cases, privileges and immunities, incorporation of the bill of rights, etc. It’s hard for any subject-specific seminar to address all of these at once.

In any case, here’s the syllabus (also available as a pdf). Comments and questions welcome!


Abortion: Law, Policy, Ethics

The law of abortion is in flux. With new appointments to the Court and new legislative initiatives in the states, there is a greater likelihood of significant shifts in constitutional doctrine than at any point in the last few decades. As a result, it has become particularly important for future lawyers to have an opportunity to study the issue in detail and to decide what they think.

This one-credit, ungraded year-long readings course is intended to give students the chance to discuss, in a relaxed academic setting, the difficult and important questions of ethics, policy, and law raised by the issue of abortion. The course meets on eight Wednesday evenings, roughly once a month, from 7:30 to 9:15 p.m. Sessions are held at the instructors’ home—depending on enrollment, either at our dinner table or in our living room. (You should have your dinner beforehand; we provide the coffee and dessert.)

The questions raised by abortion are both highly abstract and deeply personal. While they are the subject of intense and heartfelt commitment on both sides, this course is offered in the belief that they are also a proper subject for intellectual inquiry. We will insist that discussions be conducted in a civil and respectful manner, and that you address and listen to your fellow students, whatever their views, with an open mind. Within each unit, the assigned readings are roughly balanced as to viewpoint; they take deeply conflicting positions, and you will certainly disagree with some of them. The course is offered on a credit/no-credit basis partly to ensure that you are neither penalized nor rewarded for sharing the views of either of the instructors.

Two-page response papers are due 24 hours before each meeting. They may be uploaded to the ‘Forum’ section of the course website, so that you can read your classmates’ papers in advance. Response papers should address some issue raised in your mind by that session’s readings; they needn’t discuss every reading, and they should respond to the readings rather than summarize them. Each student is expected to participate fully in the discussions.

There is one required text, What Roe v. Wade Should Have Said (Jack M. Balkin ed., 2005). Other required readings are available online or in the coursepack. (Because the course focuses on basic principles rather than the details of current doctrine, it leaves out such decisions as Gonzales v. Carhart, Whole Woman’s Health v. Hellerstedt, or Azar v. Garza, as well as a number of important cases in state or circuit courts.)

  1. Persons
    1. Guttmacher Institute, Fact Sheet: Induced Abortion in the United States (Jan. 2018)
    2. John T. Noonan, Jr., An Almost An Almost Absolute Value in History, in The Morality of Abortion: Legal and Historical Perspectives 51, 51–59 (John T. Noonan ed. 1970)
    3. Mary Anne Warren, On the Moral and Legal Status of Abortion, 57 Monist 43 (1973)
    4. Peter Singer, Germ of a New Debate on the Ethics of Life, The Australian (Canberra), Dec. 23, 2005, at 10
    5. Patrick Lee & Robert P. George, Human-Embryo Liberation, Nat’l Rev. (Jan. 25, 2006 1:29 p.m.)
    6. Sherry F. Colb & Michael C. Dorf, Beating Hearts: Abortion and Animal Rights 13–44 (2016)
  2. Futures
    1. Don Marquis, Why Abortion Is Immoral, 86 J. Phil. 183 (1989)
    2. Colb & Dorf, Beating Hearts 96–115
    3. J Savulescu, Abortion, Embryo Destruction and the Future of Value Argument, 28 J. Med. Ethics 133 (2002)
    4. D Marquis, Savulescu’s Objections to the Future of Value Argument, 31 J. Med. Ethics 119 (2005)
  3. Autonomy
    1. Judith Jarvis Thomson, A Defense of Abortion, 1 Phil. & Pub. Aff. 47 (1971)
    2. John Finnis, The Rights and Wrongs of Abortion: A Reply to Judith Thomson, 2 Phil. & Pub. Aff. 117 (1973)
    3. Don Marquis, Manninen’s Defense of Abortion Rights Is Unsuccessful, 10 Am. J. Bioethics 56 (2010)
    4. Judith Jarvis Thomson, Rights and Deaths, 2 Phil. & Pub. Aff. 146 (1973)
    5. I. Glenn Cohen, Artificial Wombs and Abortion Rights, Hastings Ctr. Rep., July 1, 2017
  4. Equality
    1. Lawrence B. Finer et al., Reasons U.S. Women Have Abortions, 37 Persp. on Sexual & Reprod. Health 110 (2005)
    2. Rachel K. Jones & Jenna Jerman, Population Group Abortion Rates and Lifetime Incidence of Abortion: United States, 2008–2014, 107 Am. J. Pub. Health 1904 (2017)
    3. Sally Markowitz, Abortion and Feminism, in The Problem of Abortion 194 (Susan Dwyer & Joel Feinberg eds., 3d ed. 1997)
    4. Reva B. Siegel, Abortion as a Sex Equality Right, in Mothers in Law (Martha Albertson Fineman & Isabel Karpin eds., 1995)
    5. Robin West, Liberalism and Abortion, 87 Geo. L.J. 2117 (1999)
    6. George A. Akerlof, Janet L. Yellen & Michael L. Katz, An Analysis of Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing in the United States, 109 Q.J. Econ. 277 (1996)
  5. Society
    1. Gallup, Abortion: Gallup Historical Trends (viewed July 25, 2019) (skim)
    2. Judith Jarvis Thomson & Peter de Marneffe, Abortion: Whose Right?, Boston Review, Summer–Fall 1995 (1, 2)
    3. The Pollitt-Douthat Debate (1, 2, 3, 4, 5)
    4. Michelle Alexander, My Rapist Apologized, N.Y. Times, May 26, 2019, at SR1
    5. Ariana Eunjung Cha, Babies with Down Syndrome Are Put on Center Stage in the U.S. Abortion Fight, Wash. Post, March 4, 2018
  6. Roe
    1. Pierce v. Society of Sisters, 268 U.S. 510 (1925)
    2. Buck v. Bell, 274 U.S. 200 (1927)
    3. Griswold v. Connecticut, 381 U.S. 479 (1965)
    4. Eisenstadt v. Baird, 405 U.S. 438 (1972)
    5. Roe v. Wade, 410 U.S. 113 (1973)
  7. Responses
    1. John Hart Ely, The Wages of Crying Wolf: A Comment on Roe v. Wade, 82 Yale L.J. 920 (1973)
    2. What Roe v. Wade Should Have Said: The Nation’s Top Legal Experts Rewrite America’s Most Controversial Decision (Jack M. Balkin ed., 2005) (read as much as seems relevant)
  8. Casey
    1. Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pennsylvania v. Casey, 505 U.S. 833 (1992)
    2. Michael Stokes Paulsen, The Worst Constitutional Decision of All Time, 78 Notre Dame L. Rev. 995 (2003)
    3. Neal Devins, How Planned Parenthood v. Casey (Pretty Much) Settled the Abortion Wars, 118 Yale L.J. 1318 (2009)

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Abortion: A Syllabus

This past year, my wife Amanda Schwoerke and I co-taught a reading group on “Abortion: Law, Policy, Ethics.” We taught the course primarily to learn the subject ourselves. Abortion may be central to Supreme Court politics, but it’s outside our academic specialties, and usually too sensitive a topic for the faculty lounge. So, except with family or close friends, we hadn’t had many serious conversations about the ethics of abortion since college.

Law schools generally cover abortion in one of two ways. First, everyone has a few awkward and uncomfortable days on the topic in an introductory Con Law class, where the only people willing to talk about it are those who already have strong views. Neither of us were inclined to discuss the issue much in our own 1L class (where we happened to sit next to each other, something I remind my students whenever they fill out the seating charts). Second, there may be upper-level classes on Reproductive Rights, which often tend—at least from the syllabi we reviewed—to focus on policy and implementation rather than first principles.

This is a problem. Abortion poses important and difficult ethical questions, which lawyers (and others!) should be ready to think through seriously. And with the Court’s membership changing, it’s not enough to just assume the existing doctrinal framework. So we decided to put together our own course—and, below, to share our syllabus and some advice.

The class was intended as a lesson in “how the other half thinks.” We have our own views, of course; but we wanted the students to wrestle with each other’s views. So we taught the course pass/fail, so there wouldn’t be any incentive to agree with us.

To keep the temperature low, class was mostly held in our living room, with coffee and dessert. We tried to balance the readings between pro-choice and pro-life perspectives. The students were roughly even (say, 60-40 pro-choice), helped by informal recruitment efforts on their part. This helped avoid some of the dogpiling one might see in an 80-20 or 90-10 class.

As to how well we did, we’ll have to wait for the student evaluations! Two quick reactions:

  • At the end of the class, a substantial number of students, though not all, found “the personhood question” inescapable. There’s an affectation in modern abortion discourse that we can somehow transcend the hard ethical questions by focusing on policy questions instead. This turned out not to be true, at least for a large group of our students.
  • Covering the constitutional law of abortion is very difficult. As you can see on the syllabus, there’s not enough space to cover everything relevant. Whatever one thinks of Griswold or Roe or Casey on their own terms, there are also deep questions to be asked about Fourteenth Amendment fundamental-rights jurisprudence—about the Slaughterhouse Cases, privileges and immunities, incorporation of the bill of rights, etc. It’s hard for any subject-specific seminar to address all of these at once.

In any case, here’s the syllabus (also available as a pdf). Comments and questions welcome!


Abortion: Law, Policy, Ethics

The law of abortion is in flux. With new appointments to the Court and new legislative initiatives in the states, there is a greater likelihood of significant shifts in constitutional doctrine than at any point in the last few decades. As a result, it has become particularly important for future lawyers to have an opportunity to study the issue in detail and to decide what they think.

This one-credit, ungraded year-long readings course is intended to give students the chance to discuss, in a relaxed academic setting, the difficult and important questions of ethics, policy, and law raised by the issue of abortion. The course meets on eight Wednesday evenings, roughly once a month, from 7:30 to 9:15 p.m. Sessions are held at the instructors’ home—depending on enrollment, either at our dinner table or in our living room. (You should have your dinner beforehand; we provide the coffee and dessert.)

The questions raised by abortion are both highly abstract and deeply personal. While they are the subject of intense and heartfelt commitment on both sides, this course is offered in the belief that they are also a proper subject for intellectual inquiry. We will insist that discussions be conducted in a civil and respectful manner, and that you address and listen to your fellow students, whatever their views, with an open mind. Within each unit, the assigned readings are roughly balanced as to viewpoint; they take deeply conflicting positions, and you will certainly disagree with some of them. The course is offered on a credit/no-credit basis partly to ensure that you are neither penalized nor rewarded for sharing the views of either of the instructors.

Two-page response papers are due 24 hours before each meeting. They may be uploaded to the ‘Forum’ section of the course website, so that you can read your classmates’ papers in advance. Response papers should address some issue raised in your mind by that session’s readings; they needn’t discuss every reading, and they should respond to the readings rather than summarize them. Each student is expected to participate fully in the discussions.

There is one required text, What Roe v. Wade Should Have Said (Jack M. Balkin ed., 2005). Other required readings are available online or in the coursepack. (Because the course focuses on basic principles rather than the details of current doctrine, it leaves out such decisions as Gonzales v. Carhart, Whole Woman’s Health v. Hellerstedt, or Azar v. Garza, as well as a number of important cases in state or circuit courts.)

  1. Persons
    1. Guttmacher Institute, Fact Sheet: Induced Abortion in the United States (Jan. 2018)
    2. John T. Noonan, Jr., An Almost An Almost Absolute Value in History, in The Morality of Abortion: Legal and Historical Perspectives 51, 51–59 (John T. Noonan ed. 1970)
    3. Mary Anne Warren, On the Moral and Legal Status of Abortion, 57 Monist 43 (1973)
    4. Peter Singer, Germ of a New Debate on the Ethics of Life, The Australian (Canberra), Dec. 23, 2005, at 10
    5. Patrick Lee & Robert P. George, Human-Embryo Liberation, Nat’l Rev. (Jan. 25, 2006 1:29 p.m.)
    6. Sherry F. Colb & Michael C. Dorf, Beating Hearts: Abortion and Animal Rights 13–44 (2016)
  2. Futures
    1. Don Marquis, Why Abortion Is Immoral, 86 J. Phil. 183 (1989)
    2. Colb & Dorf, Beating Hearts 96–115
    3. J Savulescu, Abortion, Embryo Destruction and the Future of Value Argument, 28 J. Med. Ethics 133 (2002)
    4. D Marquis, Savulescu’s Objections to the Future of Value Argument, 31 J. Med. Ethics 119 (2005)
  3. Autonomy
    1. Judith Jarvis Thomson, A Defense of Abortion, 1 Phil. & Pub. Aff. 47 (1971)
    2. John Finnis, The Rights and Wrongs of Abortion: A Reply to Judith Thomson, 2 Phil. & Pub. Aff. 117 (1973)
    3. Don Marquis, Manninen’s Defense of Abortion Rights Is Unsuccessful, 10 Am. J. Bioethics 56 (2010)
    4. Judith Jarvis Thomson, Rights and Deaths, 2 Phil. & Pub. Aff. 146 (1973)
    5. I. Glenn Cohen, Artificial Wombs and Abortion Rights, Hastings Ctr. Rep., July 1, 2017
  4. Equality
    1. Lawrence B. Finer et al., Reasons U.S. Women Have Abortions, 37 Persp. on Sexual & Reprod. Health 110 (2005)
    2. Rachel K. Jones & Jenna Jerman, Population Group Abortion Rates and Lifetime Incidence of Abortion: United States, 2008–2014, 107 Am. J. Pub. Health 1904 (2017)
    3. Sally Markowitz, Abortion and Feminism, in The Problem of Abortion 194 (Susan Dwyer & Joel Feinberg eds., 3d ed. 1997)
    4. Reva B. Siegel, Abortion as a Sex Equality Right, in Mothers in Law (Martha Albertson Fineman & Isabel Karpin eds., 1995)
    5. Robin West, Liberalism and Abortion, 87 Geo. L.J. 2117 (1999)
    6. George A. Akerlof, Janet L. Yellen & Michael L. Katz, An Analysis of Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing in the United States, 109 Q.J. Econ. 277 (1996)
  5. Society
    1. Gallup, Abortion: Gallup Historical Trends (viewed July 25, 2019) (skim)
    2. Judith Jarvis Thomson & Peter de Marneffe, Abortion: Whose Right?, Boston Review, Summer–Fall 1995 (1, 2)
    3. The Pollitt-Douthat Debate (1, 2, 3, 4, 5)
    4. Michelle Alexander, My Rapist Apologized, N.Y. Times, May 26, 2019, at SR1
    5. Ariana Eunjung Cha, Babies with Down Syndrome Are Put on Center Stage in the U.S. Abortion Fight, Wash. Post, March 4, 2018
  6. Roe
    1. Pierce v. Society of Sisters, 268 U.S. 510 (1925)
    2. Buck v. Bell, 274 U.S. 200 (1927)
    3. Griswold v. Connecticut, 381 U.S. 479 (1965)
    4. Eisenstadt v. Baird, 405 U.S. 438 (1972)
    5. Roe v. Wade, 410 U.S. 113 (1973)
  7. Responses
    1. John Hart Ely, The Wages of Crying Wolf: A Comment on Roe v. Wade, 82 Yale L.J. 920 (1973)
    2. What Roe v. Wade Should Have Said: The Nation’s Top Legal Experts Rewrite America’s Most Controversial Decision (Jack M. Balkin ed., 2005) (read as much as seems relevant)
  8. Casey
    1. Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pennsylvania v. Casey, 505 U.S. 833 (1992)
    2. Michael Stokes Paulsen, The Worst Constitutional Decision of All Time, 78 Notre Dame L. Rev. 995 (2003)
    3. Neal Devins, How Planned Parenthood v. Casey (Pretty Much) Settled the Abortion Wars, 118 Yale L.J. 1318 (2009)

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In the Middle of a Pandemic, This Alabama Town Is Still Throwing People in Jail for Unpaid Traffic Tickets

Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, several municipal buildings in Montgomery, Alabama, have closed—including the ones where you get new vehicle tags and deal with traffic tickets. That didn’t stop police from pulling over Reunca Lewis for driving without proper tags, or from jailing her over unpaid tickets.

The 23-year-old’s troubles began on April 17. According to a report in Alabama Appleseed, Lewis had already been to the police station that day: Her car had been stolen and involved with a hit-and-run, so she spent a good deal of the day speaking with officers about what had happened. After she left the station, another cop pulled her over and asked why she didn’t have tags.

As she showed the officer her registration and proof of insurance, Lewis explained that she could not obtain new tags because the office that issues them had been closed. The officer then called dispatch, and three additional police vehicles arrived on the scene. Lewis was then arrested for having missed a hearing for unpaid traffic tickets.

She had “missed” the hearing because it had been cancelled. The court had been closed because of the pandemic. Nonetheless, Lewis had to spend three nights in a small cell with other women at the Montgomery City Jail.

Several jurisdictions have tried to reduce their jail and prison populations to combat the spread of COVID-19, but Montgomery was apparently more interested in enforcing traffic violations. Lewis told Alabama Appleseed that most of the women occupying her cell had also been arrested in connection with unpaid traffic tickets.

Lewis also told the website that officers checked temperatures prior to booking but that at least one male inmate with a fever was booked despite the procedure. She added that the jail had tried to separate new arrivals from older inmates—but not, as far as she could see, to separate new arrivals from each other.

WSFA 12 News recently reported that five inmates and five employees at the Montgomery City Jail have tested positive for COVID-19. Because of the threat posed by the coronavirus, Gov. Kay Ivey issued a proclamation on March 26 giving counties and municipalities discretion to issue a summons in lieu of arrest for violations and nonviolent misdemeanors.

Reason reached out to the Montgomery Police Department to see if it has modified its enforcement of the rules around tags and traffic tickets. Michael Briddell, the city’s director of public information and external affairs, responded by sending us a list of 38 open warrants (and 17 closed warrants) against Lewis, dating back to 2015. While this did not address our question, the multitude of license, tag, insurance, and headlight violations do illustrate how fees and fines inadvertently criminalize poverty.

Pressed for more information, Briddell replied that “Montgomery has taken extraordinary steps to minimize the jail population by delaying adjudication and facilitating the early release of non-violent offenders.” Reason asked again if the police department is changing its enforcement policies for traffic violations. The question went unanswered.

Reason also asked the closed Montgomery County Probate Office if there was a temporary extension policy in place for tags. The office said those needing renewals in April will have their fees waived until May 14.

And Lewis? This week she was finally able to have a videoconference with a municipal judge, who confirmed that her March hearing was cancelled and said that she would receive a new date. But the judge did not provide her with a clearance letter, so she now has a suspended license.

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All Of The Coronavirus Models Were Wrong

All Of The Coronavirus Models Were Wrong

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

How is it possible that all of the coronavirus models could have been so completely and utterly wrong about what was going to happen? 

Very early in this pandemic, some models that were predicting millions of deaths caused quite a bit of panic all over the globe.  In fact, a projection done by researchers at the Imperial College of London warned that 40 million people could die from COVID-19 this year alone.  Obviously that estimate was dead wrong, and it has become quite clear that this pandemic is not an “end of the world” scenario. 

But on the other extreme, there have been a lot of models that were forecasting a relatively low death toll, and those models have been proven to be completely wrong as well.

For example, the Los Angeles Times just published a story that discussed the fact that a number of models had projected that the U.S. would not reach 60,000 deaths until “late summer”…

The death toll from COVID-19 reached nearly 60,200 in the United States on Wednesday, and confirmed cases surpassed 1 million, according to Johns Hopkins University. Some models had suggested the U.S. would not reach this milestone until late summer.

Well, we just blew by that figure and we are rapidly moving up toward 70,000 deaths.

During the 24 hour period that just ended, another 2,390 Americans died from COVID-19, and the number of daily deaths is likely to escalate as some states attempt to “reopen” in the weeks ahead.

But a prominent model that the Trump administration has been relying on very heavily had been projecting that there would not be a single U.S. death from the coronavirus after June 21st…

An influential model cited by the White House predicts that coronavirus deaths will come to a halt this summer, with zero deaths projected in the United States after June 21.

Not a single person will die in the ensuing month and a half, according to the model, which makes predictions until August.

Obviously some U.S. officials must strongly disagree with that sort of a projection, because the Wall Street Journal is reporting that the federal government just ordered 100,000 more body bags…

The federal government ordered 100,000 new Covid-19 body bags, in what officials described as preparations for a “worst case” scenario.

The giant order last week for “human remains pouches” comes as more than 58,000 Americans have died from Covid-19, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

That would seem to be a tremendous waste of money if this pandemic is essentially going to be over in June.

Of course the truth is that this pandemic is not going to end any time soon, and every day we continue to get more indications that it is going to be much more grisly than many had originally anticipated.  For instance, on Wednesday police in New York found dozens of dead bodies stored in trucks outside a funeral home…

Police found dozens of bodies being stored in unrefrigerated trucks outside a Brooklyn funeral home and lying on the facility’s floor Wednesday, law enforcement sources told The Post.

Between 40 to 60 bodies were discovered either stacked up in U-Haul box trucks outside Andrew Cleckley Funeral Services in Flatlands or on the building’s floor, after neighbors reported a foul odor around the property, sources said.

And the entire nation was stunned to learn that almost 70 people have died at a home for aging veterans in Massachusetts

Nearly 70 residents sickened with the coronavirus have died at a Massachusetts home for aging veterans, as state and federal officials try to figure out what went wrong in the deadliest known outbreak at a long-term care facility in the U.S.

While the death toll at the state-run Holyoke Soldiers’ Home continues to climb, federal officials are investigating whether residents were denied proper medical care and the state’s top prosecutor is deciding whether to bring legal action.

While it is true that this pandemic is not “the end of the world”, nobody out there should be attempting to claim that it is a “nothingburger” either.  Just check the carnage that authorities in Ecuador have been dealing with

Front line medics in one of Latin America’s coronavirus epicenters are lifting the lid on the daily horrors they face in an Ecuadoran city whose health system has collapsed.

In one hospital in Guayaquil overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients, staff have had to pile up bodies in bathrooms because the morgues are full, health workers say.

In another, a medic told AFP that doctors have been forced to wrap up and store corpses to be able to reuse the beds they died on.

The only reason why we haven’t seen a lot of other health systems around the world get overwhelmed is because most of the planet is shut down right now.

As some parts of the globe attempt to “reopen”, it is inevitable that cases will start to surge again in those areas.  In fact, that is precisely what is starting to happen in Germany.

Sadly, this pandemic has become highly politicized at this point, and there are many out there that would love to exploit it for their own nefarious purposes.  For example, Hillary Clinton told Joe Biden during an online town hall that “this would be a terrible crisis to waste”

This is a high-stakes time, because of the pandemic. But this is also a really high-stakes election. And every form of health care should continue to be available, including reproductive health care for every woman in this country. And then it needs to be part of a much larger system that eventually — and quickly, I hope — gets us to universal health care. [Biden nods] So I can only say, “Amen,” to everything you’re saying, but also to, again, enlist people that this would be a terrible crisis to waste, as the old saying goes. [Biden nods] We’ve learned a lot about what our absolute frailties are in our country when it comes to health justice and economic justice.

Instead of dividing us even more deeply as a nation, this pandemic should be bringing us together.  And hopefully that will happen, because even greater challenges are in our future.

But for now, we still have a very long battle with this virus ahead of us.

Many more Americans are going to get sick and many more Americans are going to die, and we really don’t have any idea what the final numbers are going to look like because all of the “scientific models” have been dead wrong so far.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 16:35

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2SjKqBi Tyler Durden

Amazon Tumbles After Projecting Shrinking Profits On Billions In Pandemic Costs

Amazon Tumbles After Projecting Shrinking Profits On Billions In Pandemic Costs

Heading into today’s earnings call, Amazon had emerged as the one FAAMG stock that bucked the recent downward trend, and despite a drop in its consensus earnings estimates…

… the stock soared to a new all time high – resulting in a market cap of $1.2 trillion – on expectations that the online retailer would be the biggest beneficiary of the countrywide quarantine which shut down virtually all traditional retail outlets and forced Americans to go on an online shopping spree from home.  Furthermore, heading into earnings after hours, options traders were positioning for even more gains in Amazon with calls outnumbering puts by a rate of 1.4-to-1 among the contracts expiring tomorrow, while the implied post-earnings move in the share price was about 6.5%.

Was this optimism justified? Well, this is what Amazon just reported.

  • Q1 EPS of $5.01, missing estimates of $6.27
  • Q1 Net Sales of $75.5B, smashing estimates of $73.74B
  • Q1 AWS Net Sales of $10.22BN, missing estimates of $10.3BN, and up +2.7% Q/Q
  • Q1 Operating Income of $4.0BN, down from $4.4BN a year ago.

In other words, Amazon missed on the bottom line and AWS growth, but beat on revenue. But it wasn’t Amazon’s solid Q1 earnings that were the focus but rather its outlook that spooked investors, because while the company now expects solid revenue growth in Q2, the midline of its profit guidance (-$1.5BN to +1.5BN) was just $0.0, as the “guidance assumes approximately $4.0 billion of costs related to COVID-19.

  • Sales between $75.0 billion and $81.0 billion, or up 18% and 28% Y/Y, vs Ext of $77.93BN
  • Operating income (loss) is expected to be between $(1.5) billion and $1.5 billion, compared with $3.1 billion in second quarter 2019. This guidance assumes approximately $4.0 billion of costs related to COVID-19.

In other words, as Bloomberg puts it, the costs of managing online shopping demand in the Covid-19 era will be huge and could push Amazon into the red this quarter, spooking investors about the high cost of delivering essentials. Meanwhile, as shown in the chart below…

… Q2 revenue growth of 23% (taking the midline) was clearly solid and indicates the company does not expect any headwinds on the topline, however it is the concerns about covid expenses and profits that have spooked investors and are outweighing the upside of strong revenue growth

There was more good news in the company’s profit margin which rose sequentially to 5.3% but dipped from 7.4% a year ago.

What is also clear is that the coronavirus has impacted the company, as the following headlines suggest:

  • Amazon Sees Spending $4B or More on Covid-Related Expenses
  • Amazon Says Has Procured 100M Face Masks
  • Amazon Says Requiring Masks for Associates, Drivers, Staff
  • Amazon Sees $4B in Covid-19 Costs Affecting Guidance
  • Amazon Says Doubled Regular Hourly Base Pay for Overtime
  • Amazon Says Has Hired 175,000 for Higher Demand, Assistance

As usual AWS was the primary source of profit, and with $3.1BN in operating income (up from $2.2BN a year ago) or 77% of the company’s total operating income of $3.989. Meanwhile, the international division continues to burn cash, and despite generating $19.1BN in sales, it resulted in yet another loss of ($398MM) in Q1.

To summarize, AWS revenue growth:

  •     Q1 2018: 48%
  •     Q2 2018: 49%
  •     Q3 2018: 46%
  •     Q4 2018: 46%
  •     Q1 2019: 42%
  •     Q2 2019: 37%
  •     Q3 2019: 35%
  •     Q4 2019: 34%
  •     Q1 2020: 33%

The good news however is that after declining for a year, AWS operating margin finally posted a modest rebound:

  •     Q1 2018: 25.7%
  •     Q2 2018: 26.9%
  •     Q3 2018: 31.1%
  •     Q4 2018: 29.3%
  •     Q1 2019: 28.9%
  •     Q2 2019: 25.3%
  •     Q3 2019: 25.1%
  •     Q4 2019: 26.1%
  •     Q1 2020: 30.1%

Meanwhile, Amazon’s North America segment margins dipped to 2.84% from 3.54%, the lowest in three years.

Commenting on the results, Jeff Bezos had this to say:

From online shopping to AWS to Prime Video and Fire TV, the current crisis is demonstrating the adaptability and durability of Amazon’s business as never before, but it’s also the hardest time we’ve ever faced.

If you’re a shareowner in Amazon, you may want to take a seat, because we’re not thinking small. Under normal circumstances, in this coming Q2, we’d expect to make some $4 billion or more in operating profit. But these aren’t normal circumstances. Instead, we expect to spend the entirety of that $4 billion, and perhaps a bit more, on COVID-related expenses getting products to customers and keeping employees safe. This includes investments in personal protective equipment, enhanced cleaning of our facilities, less efficient process paths that better allow for effective social distancing, higher wages for hourly teams, and hundreds of millions to develop our own COVID-19 testing capabilities.

I’m confident that our long-term oriented shareowners will understand and embrace our approach, and that in fact they would expect no less.”

The results show that investors got a little carried away with their rosy projections about Amazon’s performance in the Covid-19 era. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos sees the big opportunity in front of him and is willing to spend as much as it takes now to keep customers happy and win market share long term. Investors always seem to forget that part of his personality even though he does this habitually.

In any case, after hitting an all time high just before earnings, the stock has since dropped some 5% after hours as investors digest the somewhat gloomy forecast.

That said, this is likely only temporary. As Bloomberg puts it, Amazon shares are falling, “but this is a smart move for Amazon from a public perception standpoint. The company has been under assault from some activist workers and unions who say it is skimping on worker protections and forcing people to risk their loves so customers can get patio umbrellas and other non-essential items during the lockdown.”

If Amazon operates at a loss, it helps their public perception that they aren’t profiteering from the crisis. U.S. regulators taking steps to shut Amazon down, like they have in France and India, is a much bigger threat to Amazon right now. Spending heavily on making its operations safe sends a strong message to regulators.

And speaking of employees, Amazon now has a record 840K workers.

In other words, despite the earnings drop, we expect the monopoly online retailer to trade at all time highs within a few days.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/30/2020 – 16:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2SDOhcP Tyler Durden

In the Middle of a Pandemic, This Alabama Town Is Still Throwing People in Jail for Unpaid Traffic Tickets

Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, several municipal buildings in Montgomery, Alabama, have closed—including the ones where you get new vehicle tags and deal with traffic tickets. That didn’t stop police from pulling over Reunca Lewis for driving without proper tags, or from jailing her over unpaid tickets.

The 23-year-old’s troubles began on April 17. According to a report in Alabama Appleseed, Lewis had already been to the police station that day: Her car had been stolen and involved with a hit-and-run, so she spent a good deal of the day speaking with officers about what had happened. After she left the station, another cop pulled her over and asked why she didn’t have tags.

As she showed the officer her registration and proof of insurance, Lewis explained that she could not obtain new tags because the office that issues them had been closed. The officer then called dispatch, and three additional police vehicles arrived on the scene. Lewis was then arrested for having missed a hearing for unpaid traffic tickets.

She had “missed” the hearing because it had been cancelled. The court had been closed because of the pandemic. Nonetheless, Lewis had to spend three nights in a small cell with other women at the Montgomery City Jail.

Several jurisdictions have tried to reduce their jail and prison populations to combat the spread of COVID-19, but Montgomery was apparently more interested in enforcing traffic violations. Lewis told Alabama Appleseed that most of the women occupying her cell had also been arrested in connection with unpaid traffic tickets.

Lewis also told the website that officers checked temperatures prior to booking but that at least one male inmate with a fever was booked despite the procedure. She added that the jail had tried to separate new arrivals from older inmates—but not, as far as she could see, to separate new arrivals from each other.

WSFA 12 News recently reported that five inmates and five employees at the Montgomery City Jail have tested positive for COVID-19. Because of the threat posed by the coronavirus, Gov. Kay Ivey issued a proclamation on March 26 giving counties and municipalities discretion to issue a summons in lieu of arrest for violations and nonviolent misdemeanors.

Reason reached out to the Montgomery Police Department to see if it has modified its enforcement of the rules around tags and traffic tickets. Michael Briddell, the city’s director of public information and external affairs, responded by sending us a list of 38 open warrants (and 17 closed warrants) against Lewis, dating back to 2015. While this did not address our question, the multitude of license, tag, insurance, and headlight violations do illustrate how fees and fines inadvertently criminalize poverty.

Pressed for more information, Briddell replied that “Montgomery has taken extraordinary steps to minimize the jail population by delaying adjudication and facilitating the early release of non-violent offenders.” Reason asked again if the police department is changing its enforcement policies for traffic violations. The question went unanswered.

Reason also asked the closed Montgomery County Probate Office if there was a temporary extension policy in place for tags. The office said those needing renewals in April will have their fees waived until May 14.

And Lewis? This week she was finally able to have a videoconference with a municipal judge, who confirmed that her March hearing was cancelled and said that she would receive a new date. But the judge did not provide her with a clearance letter, so she now has a suspended license.

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A Formerly Secret Memo Explains the DEA’s Long Delay in Approving New Producers of Marijuana for Research

Since the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) was founded in 1973, it has allowed only one entity to produce marijuana for research: the National Center for Natural Products Research at the University for Mississippi, which grows cannabis under a contract with the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA). According to a newly disclosed 2018 memo, the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) thinks that 47-year-old arrangement has always been illegal.

The OLC does not think this marijuana monopoly is too restrictive. It thinks the arrangement is not restrictive enough.

The memo, which says an international treaty requires tighter controls on the production and distribution of marijuana, explains why the DEA has been so slow in following through on a 2016 commitment to allow alternatives to NIDA’s supply. The DEA agreed to disclose the memo yesterday as part of a settlement agreement with Arizona’s Scottsdale Research Institute (SRI), which is investigating marijuana’s potential as a treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder.

For decades, medical researchers have complained about the quality and variety of the marijuana provided by NIDA, which is notably inferior to the offerings of state-licensed dispensaries on both counts. SRI President Sue Sisley found that the marijuana she was compelled to use for her federally approved PTSD study was a “powdery mishmash of stems, sticks and leaves.” Laboratory tests detected relatively high levels of mold, which the researchers ultimately decided did not pose a threat to the subjects. The tests also found that the THC and CBD concentrations were not quite what NIDA had promised, which already was not quite what the researchers had wanted.

NIDA’s monopoly also creates an insurmountable obstacle for anyone planning to market cannabis as a medicine, since the marijuana it supplies cannot be used for commercial purposes. The Food and Drug Administration, meanwhile, requires that clinical studies be conducted with the same product that would be used by patients if the drug is approved.

The solution to these problems seems obvious: Instead of requiring researchers to use inferior marijuana from a government-created monopoly, allow competing producers to suppy what scientists actually want. But while the DEA has long permitted more than one organization to produce other Schedule I substances for research, marijuana was always an exception.

The Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, together with University of Massachusetts horiticulturist Lyle Craker, began trying to break NIDA’s monopoly in 2001, and it obtained a favorable ruling from an administrative law judge in 2007. But Michele Leonhart, then the DEA’s acting administrator, overrode that decision in 2009, and Craker could not persuade federal courts to intervene.

All of that seemed to change in August 2016, when the DEA announced that it would begin accepting applications from additional marijuana suppliers. Three dozen would-be producers sought the DEA’s approval, but their applications seemed to go nowhere, notwithstanding multiple, bipartisan inquiries from members of Congress and a 2019 order by a federal appeals court demanding that the DEA explain itself. Press reports suggested that the DEA had encountered resistance from the new attorney general, Jeff Sessions, an old-fashioned drug warrior who as a senator had famously declared that “good people don’t smoke marijuana.”

In April 2018, Sessions testified that the DEA and the DOJ were “moving forward” with the licensing process but alluded to an “international treaty” that required revision of “the previous proposal.” Two months later, the OLC issued its memo, in which Deputy Assistant Attorney General Henry Whitaker fleshes out what Sessions had in mind.

Breaking with nearly half a century of policy under administrations of both parties, Whitaker concludes that the federal government’s handling of research marijuana is inconsistent with the Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs of 1961, an international treaty that the Senate approved in 1967. Three years later, Congress incorporated the Single Convention’s requirements into parts of the Controlled Substances Act. The Single Convention allows the cultivation of marijuana for scientific or medical purposes, but it requires that it be done in accordance with the same restrictions that apply to opium poppies.

Among other things, those rules require that “a single government agency” oversee cultivation and “take physical possession of such crops as soon as possible, but not later than four months after the end of the harvest.” The Single Convention also requires that the agency “have the exclusive right of importing, exporting, wholesale trading and maintaining stocks other than those held by manufacturers” of medical products. Whitaker concludes that the longstanding DEA/NIDA arrangement with the University of Mississippi’s marijuana growers does not meet those requirements.

First, the program involves more than one federal agency: While the DEA, a division of the Justice Department, licenses the University of Mississippi’s marijuana growers, NIDA, part of the Department of Health and Human Services, oversees production. Second, the DEA never “take[s] physical possession” of the crops, which the National Center for Natural Products Research ships directly to scientists approved by NIDA. Third, the DEA does not have “exclusive right[s]” when it comes to “wholesale trading and maintaining stocks,” which are handled by the center under NIDA’s supervision.

Whitaker concedes that the International Narcotics Control Board, which is supposed to monitor compliance with the Single Convention, has never objected to the U.S. marijuana program or to similar arrangements in other countries. But he says the treaty’s requirements, which are mandatory under the Controlled Substances Act, clearly rule out the current approach.

The OLC’s position clarifies the motivation for the little-noticed marijuana regulations that the DEA published on March 23. According to the summary of the proposed rule, the DEA wants to “amend its regulations to comply with the requirements of the Controlled Substances Act, including consistency with treaty obligations, in order to facilitate the cultivation of marihuana for research purposes and other licit purposes.” The DEA noted that the Justice Department “undertook a review of the CSA, including the provisions requiring consistency with obligations under international treaties such as the Single Convention, and determined that certain changes to its 2016 policy were needed.”

Under the proposed rule, “all registered manufacturers who cultivate cannabis shall deliver their total crops of cannabis to DEA.” It adds that the DEA “may accept delivery and maintain possession of such crops at the registered location of the registered manufacturer authorized to cultivate cannabis consistent with the maintenance of effective controls against diversion.” In other words, the DEA is still reading “physical possession” as requiring something short of what that phrase seems to imply. “If DEA determines that no suitable location exists at the registered location of the registered manufacturer authorized to cultivate cannabis,” the rule says, “then DEA shall designate a location for the authorized grower to deliver the crop.”

Similarly, the DEA plans to assert its “exclusive right” over “importing, exporting,
wholesale trading, and maintaining stocks,” which “shall not extend to medicinal cannabis or cannabis preparations,” by “authorizing the performance of such activities by appropriately registered persons.” Their transactions must have the DEA’s “express written authorization.”

The upshot is that the DEA plans to insert itself as a middleman in the distribution of marijuana for research, although it’s not clear how much more onerous that arrangement will be than the current DEA/NIDA system. In a letter she sent members of Congress yesterday, SRI’s Sisley criticizes a “highly irregular administrative process” based on “a secret re-interpretation of an international treaty from 1961.” She notes that Congress could streamline production and distribution of research marijuana through new legislation. But she also argues that the DEA could use a different provision of the Controlled Substances Act to achieve a similar result.

That provision says “the Attorney General may, by regulation, waive the requirement for registration of certain manufacturers, distributors, or dispensers if he finds it consistent with the public health and safety.” Unlike the part of the law that the OLC was interpreting, Sisley notes, this provision “does not mention international treaty obligations.” Given “the undisputed urgency of the need for this research,” she argues, “waiving certain registration requirements to allow already-licensed Schedule I researchers obtain marijuana” from other sources “would be ‘consistent with the public health and safety.'”

Sisley suggests the DEA could, for example, “exempt licensed Schedule I marijuana researchers from having to obtain a separate registration to manufacture marijuana, provided those researchers agree not to distribute any marijuana they manufacture.” Alternatively, she says, “it could permit licensed Schedule I marijuana researchers to obtain marijuana from state-legal dispensaries.”

One way or another, it looks like the DEA is finally “moving forward” with approval of alternative marijuana suppliers. But given decades of intransigence, followed by years of foot dragging, one could be forgiven for being skeptical.

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