Month: June 2020

After three months of relentless contrarian bearishness by institutional investors, even as retail investors first, and hedge funds subsequently (latest HF net leverage is 99%-ile) flooded into stocks, large institutions such as vanilla mutual funds and pensions finally capitulated to the Fed which is now openly pushing stock prices higher. In the CFTC’s latest weekly futures data, the amount of net short covering of Emini futures among non-commercial speculative investors exploded, and was the biggest since 2007 and the third highest on record.

As a result, in the week ended June 23, ES net specs surged to -97,078 from -303,305 which was the biggest ES net short position since the Sept 2011 US credit rating downgrade. The collapse in short exposure of more than 206K contracts was the third biggest on record, and was surpassed only by two short-squeezes observed right around the time of the great quant crash in the summer of 2007.

Were capitulating institutions the latest to ring the bell at the top of the market? It certainly seems like it: according to Deutsche Bank’s Parag Thatte, both consolidated….

… discretionary and systematic strategies, have all turned decidedly more bullish in recent days after mostly ignoring the recent market ramp.

That said, Risk Parity funds continue to lag re-entering the market, which means that after suffering substantial losses on the way down, RP funds such as Bridgewater have failed to recover losses on the upside.

The same thing appears true for CTAs, which as we reported last week, have been flip-flopping on either side of bullish or bearish in recent months.

Curiously, the general chaos and lack of directionality across markets means that CTAs have zero conviction about any assets class, not just stocks, with bonds, USD, gold and oil all at roughly 0% exposure.

Incidentally, as MacroCharts showed after we first pointed out this surge in short covering, the last time we observed such a dramatic move higher in net short exposure – which is basically an unwind of downside hedges – the market predictably tumbled. We doubt this time will be different.

And what’s worse: at least in 2007 there was liquidity as markets were still markets, not reliant on the Fed to backstop even a modest 5% drop. Now, between HFTs that turn off at the smallest sign of trouble, and asset managers who go bidless the moments there is a -1000 TICK, liquidity is non-existant. Which is why all that would take to trigger the next crash is some concerted selling.

Authored by Daniel Payne via JustTheNews.com,

Though coronavirus cases are surging in some parts of the United States, many Black Lives Matter activists are nonetheless planning sizable rallies in the near future, defying public health concerns in favor of continuing what has become a month-long streak of aggressive public activism. 

The surge in coronavirus cases in some parts of the country — especially Texas, Arizona and Florida — has brought with it renewed fears that any form of reopening states after months of lockdowns will bring a new wave of COVID-19 infections.

The governors of Texas and Florida imposed fresh restrictions on residents this week in response to rising cases in their states, while other governors such as Washington’s Jay Inslee mandated that all state residents must wear face masks while out in public. 

In spite of those mounting concerns, multiple chapters of Black Lives Matter across the country are still planning rallies and marches, even as officials urge residents to refrain from gathering in large groups. 

‘Community visioning, education, and mobilization’

One chapter, Black Lives Matter Michigan, is hosting a “protest & rally” at the Michigan State Capitol in Lansing on Monday. That event promises “community visioning, education, and mobilization to #DefendBlackLives.” Its Facebook page shows nearly 600 confirmed attendees and 2,800 “interested” in attending,

The event urges attendees to create signs with slogans on them such as “defund the police,” “invest the funds in the Black community,” and “declare racism a public health emergency in Michigan.”

In Minneapolis, meanwhile, a consortium of groups including the Chicago chapter of Black Lives Matter, has planned for a July 12 rally called the “National Mother’s March.” The group specifically invites “families (mothers, fathers, grandmothers, Aunts, Uncles, sisters, brothers spouses, significant others anyone) that have lost loved ones to police violence” to attend. 

An “educational gathering” taking place that weekend will offer participants a host of workshops on subjects such as “the history and role of the police in US society;” “tools for organizing against police violence;” “DO’s and DON’T’s of organizing for families dealing with a more recent loss of a loved one;” and numerous other topics.

In Philadelphia on Sunday, a “Rally for Political Prisoners” will take place in the city’s Malcolm X Park. That event, which will be co-hosted by Black Lives Matter Philly and six other groups, has just over 200 confirmed attendees, though nearly 1,000 more are “interested” in going. 

The rally will “center the lives and stories of our Political Prisoners in Pennsylvania and incarcerated people as we struggle to defund the police, dismantle the Fraternal Order Police and Abolish Policing,” the Facebook event states. 

Citing the recent removal of former Philadelphia mayor and police commissioner Frank Rizzo, the description continues: “Now that the statue has been brought down, let’s bring home [Rizzo’s] victims.”

A spokeswoman for Black Lives Matter Philly said the group “ask[s] participant to wear masks at every action we plan.”

“We actively pass out masks, sanitizer, and wear gloves when we distribute items,” she said. “We’re very aware and cautious about risk with COVID-19.”

She added that one of the group’s supporters recently mailed the activists 500 masks to pass out to participants at rallies and marches.

On July 4, meanwhile, Black Lives Matter Boston will host an event called the “Say Her Name March & Rally.”

Participants will “gather to center and uplift the lives of ALL Black womxn in a march from Nubian Square to Boston Common, followed by a celebratory rally in the Common where we will share music, food, the arts.”

Nearly 300 participants are scheduled to go, while 2,000 have signaled an interest. 

‘Avoid large gatherings’

The rallies, protests and marches that have rolled throughout the country over the past several weeks broke a months-long moratorium on large public gatherings throughout the United States. Sporting events, concerts, symposiums, conferences and other densely packed affairs were almost entirely cancelled from mid-March onwards, while restaurants and other popular gathering spots were all largely shuttered. 

Federal, state and local politicians from the start of the outbreak aggressively promoted “social distancing” measures, urging and often mandating that citizens avoid each other, shelter in place and refrain from getting together outside of household family units. 

Following the emergence of the protests after the police-involved death of Minneapolis resident George Floyd, however, political leaders rapidly shifted their rhetoric, coming out in tacit and sometimes outward support of the huge, densely crowded demonstrations that spread throughout the United States.

That apparent double standard was checked this week in a New York federal court, when a judge declared that Gov. Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio had unfairly discriminated against religious worshippers while giving preferential government sanction to protesters. 

Though most authorities appear reluctant to criticize the large gatherings, Facebook in its event listings for the upcoming demonstrations still urges potential participants to stay away from them. 

“It’s up to all of us to slow the spread of COVID-19,” a Facebook warning declares atop each event.

“Everyone, including young and healthy people, should avoid large gatherings during this time.”

After years of melting, the Chesapeake icecube is finally history: at exactly 350pm on Sunday afternoon, the company that launched the US shale boom, finally gave up and filed for a pre-packaged bankruptcy in the Southern District of Texas. In so doing, the company with roughly $9.5 billion in debt has become one of the biggest victims of a spectacular collapse in energy demand from the virus-induced global recession, and follows the collapse of another high-flyer in the US oil patch, Whiting Petroleum, which filed for Chapter 11 at the start of April after championing what was once the premiere U.S. shale field, the Bakken of North Dakota.

As part of its prepack agreement, Chesapeake announced that it had entered into a Restructuring Support Agreement (“RSA”) with 100% of the lenders under its revolving credit facility, holders of approximately 87% of the obligations under its Term Loan Agreement, approximately 60% of its senior secured second lien notes due 2025, and approximately 27% of its senior unsecured notes, pursuant to which Chesapeake will implement a Chapter 11 plan of reorganization to eliminate approximately $7 billion of debt.

Of course, since 73% of unsecured bondholders refused to sign off on the deal, expect a very vicious bankruptcy fight over the recoveries, as hedge funds that accumulated positions in the bonds unleash hell in their fight with the secureds (even as the equity committee claims that all classes above it should be unimpaired).

Also, we have some bad news for Jefferies, which won’t be able to repeat its hilarious attempt to fund the company in bankruptcy by selling stock to Robnhood daytraders: as part of the RSA, the Company has secured $925 million in debtor-in-possession financing lenders under Chesapeake’s revolving credit facility.  The DIP will provide Chesapeake the capital necessary to fund its operations during the Court-supervised Chapter 11 reorganization proceedings.

To summarize: Chesapeake which enters bankruptcy with just over $9.5 billion in debt…

… will eliminate about $7 billion of it, and emerge with a $2.5 billion exit financing, consisting of a new $1.75 billion revolving credit facility and a new $750 million term loan. Additionally, according to the RSA, the Company has the support of its term loan lenders and secured note holders to backstop a $600 million rights offering upon exit.

Doug Lawler, Chesapeake’s President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, “We are fundamentally resetting Chesapeake’s capital structure and business to address our legacy financial weaknesses and capitalize on our substantial operational strengths. By eliminating approximately $7 billion of debt and addressing the legacy contractual obligations that have hindered our performance, we are positioning Chesapeake to capitalize on our diverse operating platform and proven track record of improving capital and operating efficiencies and technical excellence. With these demonstrated strengths, and the benefit of an appropriately sized capital structure, Chesapeake will be uniquely positioned to emerge from the Chapter 11 process as a stronger and more competitive enterprise.”

Lawler concluded, “Over the last several years, our dedicated employees have transformed Chesapeake’s business — improving capital efficiency and operational performance, eliminating costs, reducing debt and diversifying our portfolio. Despite having removed over $20 billion of leverage and financial commitments, we believe this restructuring is necessary for the long-term success and value creation of the business.”

In addition to leverage, Lawler also removed all the equity value, because with $7 billion in senior debt destroyed, there is no question here: the common stock has no value and will almost certainly be delisted immediately to avoid any potential “misunderstandings” should an army of 10-year-old veteran Robinhood traders decided to ramp it up by a few hundred percent.

And speaking of the company’s stock and daytrading activity, it is as if 216,915 Robinhood traders suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.

Why? Because according to RobinTrack, some 216,915 users who held on to the stock as of April 14, and whose number has certainly surged in recent days after the stock soared as high as $84.75 on June 8 during the peak of the retail euphoria boom that sent bankrupt Hertz stock also soaring and inspired Jefferies to read this blog and come up with the now-failed attempt to sell worthless stock to Robinhooders.

That said, in a market as insanely broken as this one, it is certainly possible that CHK stock which the company admits is worth about a negative $7 billion, could surge tomorrow… just because.

* * *

Finally, some corporate history courtesy of Bloomberg:

About a decade ago, Chesapeake was a $37.5 billion giant led by the late Aubrey McClendon, a colorful and outspoken advocate for the natural gas industry, who died on March 2, 2016 in what appeared to be a suicide. It was at the forefront of the fracking revolution that transformed the U.S. oil and gas industry by setting off a scramble for previously untapped shale reserves. The company cut eye-popping checks to Fort Worth businesses and residents as inducements to drill on their land in the Barnett Shale of North Texas, America’s first shale field to hit the big time.

Those heady days didn’t last. U.S. natural gas slumped after the financial crisis as the frackers overwhelmed demand, and prices still haven’t revisited their previous highs. Investors soured on Chesapeake, which by that point wasn’t only debt-laden but saddled with a real estate empire that included shopping centers, a church, and a grocery store. McClendon was ousted in 2013 and was killed in an auto accident three years later.

In subsequent years, management sought to compensate for the decline in its gas fortunes by shifting into oil exploration as fracking turned the U.S. into the world’s largest producer of crude as well as a major exporter. However, any optimism about that strategy evaporated with oil’s recent price collapse amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

Lawler took over Chesapeake in 2013 with an aim of reducing its debt load that was larger than Exxon Mobil Corp.’s, a company 29 times Chesapeake’s market value at the time. He had counted on capital spending cuts and asset sales to cover debt obligations. The company was in talks last year with Jerry Jones, the billionaire Dallas Cowboys owner, about a $1 billion sale of shale assets, but no deal resulted.

In May, Lawler was forced to discard his company’s full-year outlook and write down the value of $8.5 billion in assets as energy demand tumbled amid the Covid-19 lockdown. By then, the producer’s market value had dropped to less than $200 million.

Two weeks ago the Fed sparked a mini market rally after it again announced that it would buy corporate bonds (not just ETFs), something it had said it would do three months prior yet which either the algos or the Robinhooders never quite grasped and which sent stocks soaring, even though it wasn’t actual news.

That said, there was some actual news in the Fed’s announcement.

Recall that initially, the Fed’s Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility, or SMCCF was structured to hold two types of investments, “Eligible Individual Corporate Bonds” and “Eligible ETFs”. On Monday, June 15, the Fed introduced a third category: “Eligible Broad Market Index Bonds”. This new category allows the Fed to immediately begin buying individual corporate bonds in much larger volume than previously anticipated (for more read “The Fed’s $250 Billion Debt-Buying “Index” Loophole“).

And while it remains unclear just how static the index is or will be, on Sunday the Fed finally unveiled the constituents of said Index of “Eligible Broad Market” bonds: it consists of 794 names ranging from auto giants Toyota, Volkswagen and Daimler at the top, all the way through Valspar, Washington Gas Light and Westside Intermodal. This is what the Fed said:

The Broad Market Index is intended generally to track the composition of the broad, diversified universe of secondary market bonds that meet the criteria specified in the Term Sheet for Eligible Broad Market Index Bonds, subject to generally applicable issuer-level caps specified by the Term Sheet. It will be recalculated at least every 4-5 weeks, and the list of bonds that are eligible for purchase will be refreshed more frequently to add or remove those bonds that newly meet or no longer meet the eligibility requirements. The Broad Market Index will be published roughly once a month.

The top 30 constituents by index weight are shown below:

Of note: just 6 names comprise 10% of the entire index, and as noted above, these are led by Toyota, Volkswagen, Daimler – all of which are foreign companies and thus will beg the question how do purchases of foreign corporate bonds help the American middle class.

Additionally, the Fed is buying a lot of AT&T, Apple And Verizon. While these are at least US companies, the next question is how does the Fed purchasing Apple bonds, and enabling the company to fund even more buybacks, help Main Street America?

As Bloomberg further observes, “of the $207 million of purchases made on the first day of buying, about 21% were of debt issued by firms in the consumer non-cyclical sector, while 15% were of consumer cyclical debt and 10% were of technology debt.”

And something else rather interesting: junk-rated issues comprised 3.6% of the securities acquired. Surely purchases of junk bonds will help the US no longer be a banana republic, whose disappearing middle class is now on par with that of China, Turkey and Russia.

Separately, the Fed also listed which banks were most active in selling bonds to the Fed: the list is below, and is headed by Morgan Stanley, BofA, RBC and Barclays – 4 banks of which 2 are foreign.

Still, it’s good to know that besides the companies directly benefiting from the Fed artificially propping up their bond prices which thereby become even further disconnected from fundamentals, at least a handful of other – both US and foreign – companies benefit from the US taxpayer’s generosity. Of course, here we arbitrarily assume that the Fed is an institution that operates on behalf of US taxpayers, even though by now everyone knows that the Fed is a private institution, owned by a handful of commercial banks, as the Bank of England was so kind enough to remind us last year.

Authored by Chetan Ahya, Chief Economist and Global Head of Economics at Morgan Stanley

Will the V Disrupt the V?

We received a stark reminder this week that the fight against COVID-19 is not over, as new cases globally thrice reached new highs. Unsurprisingly, the number one question we get from investors is whether this resurgence disrupts our call for a V-shaped recovery. The answer is no. We remain confident that the global economy will regain its pre-COVID-19 levels in four quarters and DM economies in eight quarters.

Three debates dominate our dialogue with investors – the impact of the surge in new cases on growth, continuing high unemployment and flagging resolve for fiscal stimulus.

First, the resurgence: Local officials in new US hotspots have paused plans for reopening and are re-emphasising the need for face coverings and social distancing. This will likely lead to some loss of economic momentum in those areas, but continued improvement in most other states should lift the aggregates. We’d note that social distancing is less likely to exert a drag on overall consumption spend than expected, as consumers have adapted. The dollars not spent on segments like travel and dining out are being diverted to other categories.

Looking at the top 20 states by GDP, the majority have achieved higher levels of mobility and economic activity without a rise in new cases, pointing the way to renewed economic activity without a significant rise in infections. In particular, the reopening in the Northeast will bolster overall economic activity.

In Asia and Germany, expanded testing and tracing allow policy-makers to quickly zero in on new COVID-19 clusters. Until a vaccine is broadly available, we could see similar selective and rolling responses, but in aggregate we see global economic activity continuing to improve.

Progress on treatment and vaccines is also encouraging. Our US biotechnology analyst Matthew Harrison sees a high probability of success for antibody approaches to treatment, with availability by the end of August. He continues to expect that a vaccine could be approved for emergency use by healthcare workers in autumn 2020, with vaccines available to the general population by 1Q21 and herd immunity achievable by summer 2021.

Second, unemployment: Investors are worried that high unemployment will constrain the pace of recovery in consumption. We argue that the link between the labour market and consumption is looser than commonly thought. During the GFC, for example, consumption in the US had already recovered to pre-recession levels by 3Q10, even though the unemployment rate remained just 50bp off its peak at 9.5%. Similarly, consumer spend in the euro area had almost recovered to pre-recession levels by 4Q10, although unemployment continued to hover around 10%.

Moreover, the starting point for household balance sheets suggests that they are in far better shape coming into this recession. Higher- and middle-income segments of the workforce, which account for the larger share of consumption, have been less impacted. And lower-income households, while disproportionately affected, have been shielded from the worst effects of the recession, with two-thirds of the eligible unemployed in effect collecting more than their pre-recession earnings.

Third, policy stimulus: As our head of US public policy Michael Zezas wrote in last week’s Sunday Start, most investors believe that further fiscal expansion could face political roadblocks. In contrast, we think that policy-makers have rediscovered active fiscal policy, using it without hesitation this time around – particularly as the recession was triggered by an exogenous shock in the form of a public health crisis. We expect US policy-makers to enact an additional US$1 trillion in fiscal stimulus. While investors are laser-focused on how the virus outbreak will influence the outlook, we think that they should not forget about the sizeable policy backstop, which is a key driver in supporting the recovery.

Looking ahead, we do expect new clusters of infections to emerge, and our base case assumes a second wave in the autumn and winter. However, we think that public health systems will be better positioned to manage the second wave. Testing and tracing capacity are ramping up, the authorities are more attuned to potential strains on medical equipment and services, and we believe that they will stockpile supplies ahead of the autumn. We think that renewed social distancing and selective and rolling lockdowns will keep outbreaks in check without strict nationwide measures (like the ones we saw in March-April this year). Hence, we believe that the global economy will be able to sustain its recovery and avoid a double dip, keeping us firmly in the V camp.

In the wake of countrywide protests surrounding the killing of George Floyd, questions around the militarization of police forces have taken center stage once again.

How did so many police departments across the United States end up with bomb-proof trucks and night vision goggles? Where are departments acquiring this equipment, and at what cost?

Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley notes that these questions and more are answered by data from the Defense Logistics Agency, which oversees the 1033 Program. The visualization above tracks the flow of military equipment to law enforcement over the past decade.

A note on the data: Much of the equipment acquired through the program is already used – and often obsolete by military standards. As well, the 1033 dataset captures shipments of equipment. Over time, items can be transferred between departments, meaning these official records may be less reflective of specific police department inventories as time goes on. For these reasons, we decided to cap our analysis to looking at the last decade (2010-2020) of transfers.

Free Military Surplus for Law Enforcement

The 1033 Program was conceived in the years following Operation Desert Storm, just as America’s violent crime rate was hitting an all-time high. During this era, America’s “war on drugs” and tough-on-crime political platforms provided the impetus for the militarization of police forces around the country.

The 1033 program has been likened to Craigslist’s “Free Stuff” section, and the comparison is apt. The mechanics of the program are relatively straightforward. Outdated military gear is transferred (at no cost) to state and local law enforcement agencies who go through the application process. The equipment is loaned to agencies, who are only responsible only for shipping and subsequent operating costs (e.g. fuel, spare parts).

Law enforcement agencies gain access to a vast array of military surplus, from office supplies and thermal underwear up to armored vehicles and multi-million dollar communications systems. Also included in the mix are medical supplies and gear to aid in search and rescue operations. Since the program’s inception, over $7.4 billion worth of property has been transferred.

One of the most popular items acquired by police departments is the Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle, or MRAP. Over the past decade, over 1,000 of these vehicles were transferred from the military to law enforcement agencies. This includes places like Monett, Missouri (population 9,000), which is on record as receiving two MRAP vehicles.

Night vision equipment is extremely popular as well. Items like goggles, scopes, and surveillance equipment – which can run thousands of dollars per unit – have been shipped to police departments around the country.

Of course, military surplus isn’t just about fancy vehicles and weaponry. The Meade County Sheriff’s Office in Kentucky is on record for ordering a single box of toilet paper just as COVID-19 was on the rise in that state.

Shipments at the State Level

Since the army is willing to part with excess equipment, cash-strapped police departments are happy to oblige. More than $1.7 billion of surplus has been transferred over to police around the country over the past decade.

The two biggest spenders, California and Texas, combined to acquire a total of $271 million in equipment, but looking at things on a per capita basis helps to show the states that were most enthusiastic about the 1033 Program in more relative terms.

Tennessee had by far the highest spending considering its population, with police departments in the state acquiring $20 worth of equipment per person. With the exception of Arizona, all the states that rank highly in that metric have per capita police spending that sits well below the U.S. average.

On the flip side, New York came in at a fraction of that amount, acquiring only $1.74 worth of equipment for every person in the state. Of course, it’s worth noting that New York had the highest police expenditure in the country (after Washington DC).

Who got the Goods?

Not surprisingly, state-level law enforcement agencies topped the list. For example, the Arizona Department of Public Safety received multiple airplanes valued at $17 million per unit. California’s highway patrol received the most expensive single item on the list – a $22 million aircraft.

For a more local perspective, here’s a look at the top 20 police departments by value of military equipment acquired:

On its own, Houston police department received as much as the bottom five states combined. Nearly 400 other police departments also broke the $1 million barrier, and over 2,026 departments around the country received over $100,000 in goods.

Via SchiffGold.com,

Earlier this week, we reported Goldman Sachs now forecasts record gold prices within the next 12 months. Well, Goldman isn’t the only mainstream player turning more bullish on gold.

In a note published Tuesday, Bank of America said gold can hit record highs before the end of 2020 if its rally continues to breach key resistance levels.

The breakout occurring now that is ending Q2 completes an eight-week trading range that has resumed higher,” Paul Ciana, technical strategist at Bank of America, wrote.

“These patterns say gold can make a new all-time high in [the second half of 2020] with Q3 on our mind.”

Ciana said $1,800 will be a key resistance level to keep an eye on.

Meanwhile, SGMC Capital Founder & CEO Massimiliano Bondurri told Bloomberg he thinks gold may hit close to $2,000 by the end of this year and could rally further due to dollar weakness.

It can rally much, much further than here, for a number of reasons. First of all, we expect dollar depreciation to continue, so that’s likely to benefit gold. This uncertainty overall on the market, on the economic environment, is just going to keep the price of gold supported as a safe haven. Eventually, there are going to be people starting to worry about inflation. Not now, but probably more down the road. And again, gold is a good hedge for that. Therefore, we can very easily see it close to $2,000, even by year-end, and potentially even breaking out more, because the dollar depreciation, once it comes … is going to have some way to go.”

Bondurri also said there is a major disconnect between the stock market and the actual economy.

The reason for that is the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus that we are experiencing. And therefore, even though the economic numbers will be appalling this year because of the virus, valuations are likely to anyways remain supported thanks to the very large amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus, the amount of liquidity which is being injected into the system. And overall, just the signals by central banks and governments that they’re always there ready to do more.”

Bondurri reiterated that the market has “gone ahead of itself” in terms of valuations.

There will come a time of reckoning with this.”

Edison Investment Research is even more bullish, saying gold has the potential to go as high as $3,000.

In its gold report, Edison director Charles Gibson wrote that Federal Reserve monetary policy is extremely supportive of gold.

With the total US monetary base now at US$5.1tn (and given the close historical correlation between the two), the gold price could very reasonably be expected to rise to US$1,892/oz and potentially as high as US$3,000/oz.”

Gibson emphasized the historical correlation between the money base and the price of gold.

The reason this is significant is because, since 1967, the price of gold has shown an extremely strong (0.909) correlation with the total US monetary base. Gibson. The more dollars that either are, or could be, in circulation, the higher the expected gold price.”

He said with the Fed engaged in QE infinity – essentially unlimited bond-buying – the sky’s the limit.

Anecdotally, there is some evidence to suggest the Fed has already spent close to US$2tn buying bonds to date, which, all other things being equal, should take the total US. monetary base to a record US$5.5tn and the gold price to over US$2,000/oz and potentially as high as US$3,281/oz.”

A popular bar near Michigan State University’s campus in East Lansing was site of a recent ‘super spreader’ event. 

This single location has been reportedly linked to at least 85 confirmed COVID-19 cases, a number expected to climb given that health authorities are now desperately announcing that anyone who visited Harper’s Restaurant and Brew Pub between June 12 and June 22 immediately self-quarantine for 14-days.

Local media said further that a recent cluster of 30 infections 100 miles away are also linked to the bar.

According to Fox News: 

Eighty of the cases involve individuals who visited the bar and then tested positive, WLIX-TV reported. Most of those infected have only shown mild symptoms. At least 10 have been asymptomatic.

College students without masks could be seen in photos on social media crowded together on a line to get into Harper’s after the bar reopened June 12 when Michigan eased coronavirus restrictions that had shuttered bars and restaurants for three months.

The business closed again June 22, shortly after two people tested positive for the coronavirus, the station reported.

Some of the bar’s patrons later held other parties and bonfires in the area, which reportedly caused further infections. 

Ingham County Health Department, which includes the state capital of Lansing, said on Saturday of the pub: “Cases linked to Harper’s are currently at 85 total.”

Local media commented that despite the bar implementing social distancing measures and complying with state health guidelines in reopening, few patrons were actually seen wearing masks.

The bar owners have since said they are taking drastic steps to limit future exposure, including new heating and cooling systems, and high-tech means of crowd control, especially limiting the ability of lines to extend out the doors. 

It’s temporarily closed again in order to “implement a program to eliminate lines, and to modify our HVAC system to install an air purifying technology while the air is being conditioned and re-circulated, according to a Facebook statement. “When we have finished implementing these two strategies, we will have the most state-of-the-art neighborhood venue for you to visit safely.”