Any Hope For A “V-Shaped Recovery” Has Been Completely Crushed

Any Hope For A “V-Shaped Recovery” Has Been Completely Crushed

Tyler Durden

Fri, 06/26/2020 – 12:37

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

We were supposed to be well into a “recovery” by now, but instead more bad economic news just keeps pouring in.  In fact, the numbers that I am going to share with you in this article are absolutely eye-popping.  Initially, many of the economic optimists had been trying to convince us that we would experience a “short, sharp recession” followed by a “V-shaped recovery”.  Well, at this point it has become quite clear that we can forget all about that scenario.  The mainstream media is increasingly starting to use the word “depression” to describe what is happening to the U.S. economy, and the raw numbers definitely support the use of that label. 

For example, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now projecting that U.S. GDP will decline by 46.6 percent on an annualized basis during the second quarter of 2020…

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -46.6 percent on June 25, down from -45.5 percent on June 17. After this week’s data releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth from -25.9 percent to -35.9 percent was offset by an increase in the nowcast of real business fixed investment growth from -31.1 percent to -28.2 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.30 percentage points to -1.27 percentage points.

If that figure is anywhere close to accurate, this quarter will be remembered as the most disastrous economic quarter that we have ever seen in all of U.S. history up to the point.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits each week continues to surprise most analysts

Jobless claims totaled 1.48 million last week as unemployment related to the coronavirus pandemic remained stubbornly high, though those receiving benefits fell below 20 million for the first time in two months, the government reported Thursday.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting 1.35 million claims.

As I keep reminding my readers, the all-time record for a single week prior to this year was just 695,000, and that record had stood since 1982.

But now we have more than doubled that old record for 14 weeks in a row.

Just think about that.  After laying off tens of millions of workers, you would think that companies would be running out of people to fire, but we continue to see vast hordes of Americans file new claims for unemployment benefits each week.

Overall, more than 47 million Americans have now filed a claim for unemployment benefits since this pandemic began.

If this isn’t an “economic depression”, then how bad would things have to get for us to be in one?

Of course Congress certainly didn’t help matters by giving out such generous unemployment bonuses.  Millions of unemployed workers are now bringing home more money than they did while they were actually working, and this is discouraging many from returning to work.

But that will change very abruptly in just a few weeks

Many out-of-work Americans counting on receiving an extra $600 a week through the end of July may be surprised to discover that benefit will disappear nearly a week earlier than they expected.

The additional $600 in weekly jobless benefits provided by the federal government is officially set to end July 31. But states will pay it only through the week ending July 25 or July 26, a significant blow to unemployed workers counting on that money to bolster state benefits that average just $370 a week.

Starting around the beginning of August, all of a sudden a whole lot of people will be very interested in finding new jobs, but there won’t be many jobs available.

Thousands upon thousands of businesses have already shut down permanently, and more are closing their doors with each passing day.

This new economic downturn has been particularly brutal for small businesses.  Just consider the following numbers from the Wall Street Journal

Roughly 140,000 Yelp-listed businesses that had closed since March 1 remained closed on June 15. A large minority of that set, 41%, has shut for good, according to Yelp.

The figures have improved by about 20% compared with April data, when 175,000 businesses were closed. But the large share of persistent closures, which were spread nationwide, showed the pandemic’s stubborn hindrance to life as normal even as all 50 states have taken steps to reopen.

This isn’t what a “recovery” looks like.

And it isn’t just the private sector that will be shedding jobs like crazy in the months ahead.  As tax revenues collapse, state and local governments all over the nation will be forced to let workers go.  In fact, it is being projected that more than 5 million of them will be laid off…

Right now, sales taxes, real-estate-transfer taxes, income taxes, fines and fees—they are all collapsing, leaving local governments with a budget gap expected to total $1 trillion next year. Without help from Washington, this will necessarily mean massive service cuts and job losses: namely, an estimated 5.3 million job losses.

Those are not jobs that have already been lost.

Those are future job losses that haven’t shown up in the numbers yet.

And those job losses will be particularly painful, because government jobs tend to pay higher than average wages and they tend to come with better than average benefits.

As the job loss tsunami continues to roll on, the number of Americans forced to move back home with their parents or grandparents will continue to soar.  Of course what we have been witnessing already is deeply alarming

A record 32 million American adults were living with their parents or grandparents in April, according to the latest American Community Survey from the U.S. Census Bureau, an increase of 9.7 percent over a year ago. The data, analyzed by Zillow researchers, showed that 2.7 million adults moved back home in March and April, and that about 2.2 million of them were aged 18 to 25 — also known as Generation Z.

One domino after another is tumbling, and obviously economic conditions are not going to return to the way they were previously.

But this wasn’t supposed to happen.

Once the coronavirus lockdowns ended, we were told that the U.S. economy was supposed to snap back very rapidly.

Unfortunately, the truth is that our economic pain is just beginning.  We have entered an extended economic downturn, and our society is not equipped to handle such a downturn at all.

As I have warned so many times, what we are facing is going to make the last recession look like a Sunday picnic, but most Americans continue to hold out hope that some sort of a “recovery” is still on the horizon.

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Watch Live: White House Task Force Delivers First Public Briefing In Months

Watch Live: White House Task Force Delivers First Public Briefing In Months

Tyler Durden

Fri, 06/26/2020 – 12:34

In the task force’s first public briefing since suspending its daily acrimonious press briefings, VP Pence is leading a team that, without President Trump (though he did just cancel a weekend trip to NJ) is expected to discuss the recent upsurge in cases, and a new potential strategy leaked to the press called “pool testing”. We have more on that here.

Watch live below:

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New on NRO: “Justice Gorsuch’s Half-Way Textualism Surprises and Disappoints in the Title VII Cases”

Randy Barnett and I published a new essay in National Review Online, titled “Justice Gorsuch’s Half-Way Textualism Surprises and Disappoints in the Title VII Cases.” We spent some time thinking about Bostock, and recognized precisely where Justice Gorsuch went wrong.

Here is the introduction:

Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 made it unlawful for employers to “discriminate against” employees “because of . . . sex.” Did that landmark statute also prohibit discrimination against employees because of their sexual orientation or gender identity? In Bostock v. Clayton County, the Supreme Court answered yes by a 6–3 vote. Justice Neil Gorusch wrote the majority opinion, which was joined by Chief Justice John Roberts, and the Court’s four progressives. Justices Alito, Thomas, and Kavanaugh dissented.

But we were both surprised and disappointed by Justice Gorsuch’s majority decision. And after some reflection, we think we know where he went wrong. Justice Gorsuch’s analysis did not begin with first principles. Rather, he simply assumed that decades of case law accurately interpreted Title VII. Indeed, he treated decades of precedent as part of the “law’s ordinary meaning” in 1964. Moreover, Justice Gorsuch failed to recognize the relationship between two essential phrases in Title VII: “discriminate against” and “because of.” These terms cannot be considered in splendid isolation. When combined, they reference discrimination based on bias or prejudice. In short, Justice Gorsuch built an elaborate textualist framework on a shaky foundation. Regrettably, this half-way textualism led Justice Gorsuch astray.

And the conclusion:

During oral argument in October, Justice Gorsuch suggested that this “case is really close, really close, on the textual evidence.” Something apparently changed between October and June when he concluded that the “law’s ordinary meaning” in 1964 was “unambiguous.” But that meaning only seemed unambiguous because it was premised on a faulty foundation: moving from the ordinary meaning of the phrase “discriminate against because of sex” to a technical meaning of “because of.”

In the wake of Bostock, some political conservatives have started to question the merits of textualism itself. We understand the visceral reaction to this surprising decision, but we think this criticism is overstated. Textualism provides the strongest basis to criticize Justice Gorsuch’s majority’s decision in Bostock.

In dissent, Justice Alito charged that Justice Gorsuch’s opinion “sails under a textualist flag,” but is more like a “pirate ship.” Justice Alito’s metaphor is half-right. Justice Gorsuch flew the textualist flag at half-mast.

We welcome any comments or feedback.

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New on NRO: “Justice Gorsuch’s Half-Way Textualism Surprises and Disappoints in the Title VII Cases”

Randy Barnett and I published a new essay in National Review Online, titled “Justice Gorsuch’s Half-Way Textualism Surprises and Disappoints in the Title VII Cases.” We spent some time thinking about Bostock, and recognized precisely where Justice Gorsuch went wrong.

Here is the introduction:

Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 made it unlawful for employers to “discriminate against” employees “because of . . . sex.” Did that landmark statute also prohibit discrimination against employees because of their sexual orientation or gender identity? In Bostock v. Clayton County, the Supreme Court answered yes by a 6–3 vote. Justice Neil Gorusch wrote the majority opinion, which was joined by Chief Justice John Roberts, and the Court’s four progressives. Justices Alito, Thomas, and Kavanaugh dissented.

But we were both surprised and disappointed by Justice Gorsuch’s majority decision. And after some reflection, we think we know where he went wrong. Justice Gorsuch’s analysis did not begin with first principles. Rather, he simply assumed that decades of case law accurately interpreted Title VII. Indeed, he treated decades of precedent as part of the “law’s ordinary meaning” in 1964. Moreover, Justice Gorsuch failed to recognize the relationship between two essential phrases in Title VII: “discriminate against” and “because of.” These terms cannot be considered in splendid isolation. When combined, they reference discrimination based on bias or prejudice. In short, Justice Gorsuch built an elaborate textualist framework on a shaky foundation. Regrettably, this half-way textualism led Justice Gorsuch astray.

And the conclusion:

During oral argument in October, Justice Gorsuch suggested that this “case is really close, really close, on the textual evidence.” Something apparently changed between October and June when he concluded that the “law’s ordinary meaning” in 1964 was “unambiguous.” But that meaning only seemed unambiguous because it was premised on a faulty foundation: moving from the ordinary meaning of the phrase “discriminate against because of sex” to a technical meaning of “because of.”

In the wake of Bostock, some political conservatives have started to question the merits of textualism itself. We understand the visceral reaction to this surprising decision, but we think this criticism is overstated. Textualism provides the strongest basis to criticize Justice Gorsuch’s majority’s decision in Bostock.

In dissent, Justice Alito charged that Justice Gorsuch’s opinion “sails under a textualist flag,” but is more like a “pirate ship.” Justice Alito’s metaphor is half-right. Justice Gorsuch flew the textualist flag at half-mast.

We welcome any comments or feedback.

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Facebook Tumbles As Unilever Joins List Of Ad-Boycotting Virtue-Signalers

Facebook Tumbles As Unilever Joins List Of Ad-Boycotting Virtue-Signalers

Tyler Durden

Fri, 06/26/2020 – 12:20

The growing number of companies that are pausing ads on Facebook in response to the social media giant’s handling of hate speech and violence is starting to have a notable effect on the company’s share price.

Today’s addition is perhaps a straw to break the camel’s back as consumer-good giant Unilever joins Verizon as two major companies pausing ads on the social network in a grand virtue-signaling show.

“Based on the current polarization and the election that we are having in the U.S., there needs to be much more enforcement in the area of hate speech,” said Luis Di Como, Unilever’s executive vice president of global media, in an interview.

“Continuing to advertise on these platforms at this time would not add value to people and society,” the company said in a statement. Its Facebook ban also will cover Instagram.

Mr. Di Como said Unilever would like to see a reduction in the level of hate speech on the platforms and wants independent companies to measure and confirm that progress has been made. As Fortune reports, the movement was launched last week by advocacy groups including the Anti-Defamation League, the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, and Common Sense Media.

They asked businesses to pause their advertising on Facebook in July to send a “powerful message”:

“Your profits will never be worth promoting hate, bigotry, racism, antisemitism, and violence.”

So far, more than 10 companies, including REI, Patagonia, North Face, Eddie Bauer, Verizon, Upwork, and Unilever’s Ben & Jerry’s, have joined the campaign.

“Facebook, Inc. must take the clear and unequivocal actions to stop its platform from being used to spread and amplify racism and hate,” Ben & Jerry’s tweeted on Tuesday after joining.

Analysts have claimed this virtue-signaling is a nothingburger from a financial perspective

“It’s not going to do anything to the company, financially,” said Brent Thill, an analyst at investment banking firm Jefferies.

“You have 8 million advertisers. If a handful leave, there’s a short-term air pocket, but it’s minor.”

But, Facebook shares are down over 6% on the headline:

The avalanche has started now and remember “silence is violence” is the new normal, so if you’re a CEO who advertises on Facebook, how do you not boycott now?

And finally, one can’t help but wonder whether these companies are using the riots as an excuse to cut marketing budgets at a time when that action would not be taken as symbolic of a problem for the company.

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DraftKings Insiders Dump $596 Million Of Stock On Unsuspecting Robinhood Daytraders 

DraftKings Insiders Dump $596 Million Of Stock On Unsuspecting Robinhood Daytraders 

Tyler Durden

Fri, 06/26/2020 – 12:16

DraftKings Inc. filed several Form 4s with the Securities and Exchange Commission this week regarding insider selling by the president of the company, Paul Liberman, and others. 

Insider Transactions 

It turns out, as more than 100,000 Robinhood daytraders panic bought DraftKings since its Nasdaq debut in April, soaring 237% in months – Liberman and other insiders dumped a whopping $596 million worth of shares.

Robinhood Track 

On the pump, Liberman sold $31 million worth of stock, with about $15 million left. CEO Jason Robin sold $70 million worth of stock, while director Hany Nada liquidated $37 million. 

Clearly, by now, readers should understand the parabolic rise in DraftKings’ shares was nothing more than a spectacular pump – as what comes next is likely the dump. 

But wait, there are more insiders dumping stock: Director Steven Joseph Murray sold $40 million worth of shares, while directors Shalom Meckenzie and John Salter sold collectively around $125 million. 

Howard Lindzon, the co-founder of StockTwits, recently noted the meteoric rise in DraftKings share price happened at a time when most sporting events were canceled because of the virus pandemic:

 “The chart of the day is Draft Kings, which has quadrupled to $12 billion now since it reverses merged into a shell and then changed ticker to $DKNG…unbelievable outcome considering the long regulated road and the fact that NO SPORTS !? Face with tears of joy.”

What goes up must come down: Robinhood traders will soon learn a painful lesson on gravity. 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2YyVYUU Tyler Durden

Biden’s Basement Strategy: Just Say Nothing

Biden’s Basement Strategy: Just Say Nothing

Tyler Durden

Fri, 06/26/2020 – 11:54

Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

Some polls now have Joe Biden running ahead of Donald Trump by 10 points and sweeping the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. This vindicates the strategy Biden’s advisers have adopted:

Confine Joe to his basement, no press conferences. Trot him out to recite carefully scripted messages for the cameras. Then lead him back to his stall.

This enables Biden to avoid the blazing questions that are dividing not only Democrats and Republicans but liberals and leftists. And most of these issues touch on the explosive subject of race.

Consider. California’s legislature just voted to put to a statewide ballot in November a return to the racial preferences that were banned as discriminatory in a statewide referendum, 25 years ago.

The proposal would reverse the 1995 constitutional amendment, approved by 55% of voters, which outlawed “preferential treatment” based on “race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin.”

If the measure carries, California returns to a racial spoils system.

Race preferences are being pushed because they are needed to bring about greater representation of Blacks and Hispanics in the student bodies of elite schools of the state university system like UCLA and the University of California, Berkeley.

Asian students are today “overrepresented” in these prestigious schools, because of their superior test scores.

Where does Biden stand on anti-Asian discrimination?

Earlier this June, the California Assembly voted to establish a task force to make recommendations for reparations for slavery.

Now, California did not enter the Union until 1850, and slavery was outlawed in the state constitution, though several thousand slaves were brought there during the 1849 Gold Rush.

Where does Biden stand on reparations for slavery?

Many of the recent protests in the wake of George Floyd’s death have involved the desecration and destruction of monuments.

What does Biden think about tearing down statues of Christopher Columbus and Robert E. Lee? Where does Biden stand on destroying statues of Presidents Washington, Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Lincoln, Grant and Theodore Roosevelt?

What did Biden think of the removal of the statue of Caesar Rodney, Delaware statesman and slave owner, who, despite a grave illness, rode to Philadelphia to sign Jefferson’s Declaration of Independence and cast his lot with the American Revolution?

Understandably, Biden would prefer not having to choose between Caesar Rodney and BLM.

Black men are arrested and incarcerated more often than whites because of the systemic racism of law enforcement officials, we are told.

Does Biden believe white cops are congenital racists?

In the great cities where the killing of Black men is today all too common, the regimes that have ruled them for decades have been almost wholly Democratic.

Does Biden believe there is systemic racism in the ruling circles of all these Democratic-run cities?

Over the last month, there has been an explosion of shootings and killings. In Chicago, over Memorial Day, 84 people were shot, 24 mortally.

Last weekend in Chicago, 106 people were shot and 14 killed. New York City is experiencing the worst shooting violence in a quarter century.

Is there systemic racism in the police departments of our great cities? Again, who has been running those cities, if not Democrats?

Is there inequality in wealth between Black and white America because of systemic racism? If so, why did that inequality persist through two terms of our first Black president, with Biden as his VP?

Does Biden believe, with Elizabeth Warren, in wealth taxes on the rich and wealth transfers to close the Black-white wealth gap?

Is there systemic racism in American media?

Our dominant media institutions include The Washington Post, New York Times, ABC, CBS and NBC. All are controlled by liberals.

Is there systemic racism in our great universities and colleges? Yet, Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Columbia, and the rest of the Ivy League have long been run by an entrenched liberal elite.

Is our huge federal workforce permeated by racism?

Though African Americans are 13% of the U.S. population, they occupy 18% of all federal jobs.

Is there systemic racism in our public schools? Who controls the teachers unions? Who fills almost all of the teaching positions?

Is there systemic racism in California? If so, who is at fault? The governor, both senators, both houses of the legislature, all statewide offices, and 46 of 53 U.S. House seats in California are held by Democrats.

If Biden emerges, then he will have to answer why all these institutions where his party and people are predominant — the media, Hollywood, the academic community, public schools, big-city governments, the big foundations, the federal bureaucracy — are apparently shot through with systemic racism after decades of Democratic dominance.

And, more precisely, what he intends to do about it.

Perhaps it’s better to shelter in place in the basement.

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Mexico City Police Chief Wounded In Daylight Assassination Attempt Using .50 Cal Rifles & Grenades

Mexico City Police Chief Wounded In Daylight Assassination Attempt Using .50 Cal Rifles & Grenades

Tyler Durden

Fri, 06/26/2020 – 11:35

Amid Mexico’s spiraling cartel and drug war violence, and the police and military’s uphill battle to get a handle on surging crime especially in sprawling urban poor neighborhoods, a brazen and shocking assassination attempt has targeted Mexico’s City’s chief of police on Friday.

Mexico City’s public security chief, Omar Garcia Harfuch, survived the attack and his now considered “out of danger” according to Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum. The top cop was wounded and is in the hospital, while at least two of his police bodyguards were killed.

Mexico City police chief Omar Garcia Harfuch, via Especial

Though details remain sparse, the attack appears to have been a major public street shootout scenario, akin to much of the cartel violence Mexican towns have been prone to, given the mayor also said an “undetermined number of people were killed” in the morning shootout.

“The police say that gunmen armed with .50 caliber sniper rifles and grenades exchanged fire with the chief’s security detail,” AP reports. A woman who happened to be driving by was also shot and killed.

Local media says the attack occurred at around 6:30am, shocking the wealthy neighborhood district of Lomas de Chapultepec. Interestingly, such a violent scene is said to be extremely rare in the that part of the city. Gunshots were reportedly heard ringing out for several minutes as the streets erupted in chaos.

It’s as yet unclear who the assassins or perpetrators were, however, Reuters described based on local officials that arrests have been made

Separately, Ernestina Godoy, attorney general of Mexico City, said 12 people had been arrested.

Speaking at a regular government news conference, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador attributed the outbreak of violence to the work of local officials to establish order in the city.

Residents said heavy gunfire rang out for several minutes during the attack in Lomas de Chapultepec, which is home to many wealthy residents and the location of ambassadorial residences.

Aftermath and massive police presence at the upscale Lomas de Chapultepec district:

And further police are now blaming a powerful cartel

Mexico City police chief Omar Garcia Harfuch blamed the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) for attempting to assassinate him early on Friday when he was shot and injured in an attack in a wealthy part of the capital.

“This morning we suffered a cowardly attack by the CJNG, two colleagues and friends of mine lost their lives,” Garcia said in a post on Twitter.

Some local reports described that high-power weapons used in the assault, including 50 caliber machine guns, account for the high casualty toll, including among innocent passersby.

Typically such scenes have only play out in poorer neighborhoods. 

Via Explica.co: “They attacked with high power weapons”

It’s perhaps a sign that organized crime elements are becoming more daring in targeting high level law enforcement authorities that they would go after the country’s most visible city police chief and in broad daylight in an upscale neighborhood.

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As New York City Reopens, Businesses Balance Public Health and Staying Afloat

NYC Phase 2

On Monday, New York City officially entered Phase 2 of its reopening plan, having recorded record-low COVID-19 infection rates in the previous week.

The new phase expands which types of businesses can open their doors. Salons, barbershops, offices, and retail stores are all allowed to reopen with proper precautionary measures, as are playgrounds and places of worship.

The previous phase had been restricted to low-contact industries such as construction, with retail service limited to curbside pickup.

In addition, the city’s Open Restaurants plan will allow restaurants to expand from takeout and delivery to limited outdoor dining. Restaurants have particularly suffered from coronavirus-related loss of business: According to the Wall Street Journal, 53 percent of shuttered restaurants on Yelp have permanently gone out of business, compared to 35 percent of closed retail outlets.

The Open Restaurants program would allow restaurants to use sidewalks and curbs, as well as existing patio space, to set up tables and chairs for outdoor dining this week; seating is supposed to expand to open streets on nights and weekends by July. Mayor Bill de Blasio believes the plan could save up to 5,000 businesses and 45,000 jobs.

Phase 2 also allows many more New Yorkers to return to the workspace after three months of remote work or joblessness. De Blasio estimates that 300,000 people could get back to work following this loosening of restrictions.

The reopenings will also benefit New York’s public transit system, which has suffered heavy financial losses due to underuse. The MTA expects Phase 2 to increase daily subway ridership to 1 million New Yorkers—a far cry from last year’s average of 5.5 million, but a change from just 366,000 at the peak of New York’s outbreak.

New York’s Phase 2 guidelines are still as arbitrary as one could expect from a state reopening plan. While offices, salons, and retail stores have been permitted to operate at half capacity, churches are restricted to just 25 percent. Playgrounds will finally reopen (with appointed “social distancing ambassadors” at New York’s 1,700 parks), but team sports are banned.

In light of unclear city guidelines and lingering uncertainty about the pandemic’s path, businesses continue to set their own safety criteria beyond the government’s recommendations, permitting many employees to work from home for the foreseeable future.

Early signs suggest that a lot of those workers will stay at home even if the government says they’re welcome to commute. One real estate company reported that just 5.2 percent of its employees reported back to its reopened offices on Monday. And a survey by the Partnership for New York City found that across 60 Manhattan-based businesses, just 10 percent of the workforce will return to the office by August.

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N.Y. Officials’ Endorsement of Anti-Racism Protests Leads to Successful Religious Freedom Challenge to Gathering Ban

From Judge Gary Sharpe’s opinion today in Soos v. Cuomo (N.D.N.Y.):

Pending is an application for preliminary injunctive relief filed by plaintiffs Reverend Steven Soos, Reverend Nicholas Stamos, Daniel Schonbrun, Elchanan Perr, and Mayer Mayerfeld … seek an order restraining and enjoining defendants Andrew M. Cuomo, Governor of the State of New York; Letitia James, Attorney General of the State of New York; and Bill de Blasio, Mayor of the City of New York: (1) from enforcing any gathering limits to outdoor religious gatherings; and (2) from imposing any limitation on indoor gathering … for religious gatherings in parity with the 100% occupancy allowed for favored “essential businesses,” day camps and special education classes, or, alternatively, at least 50% occupancy in keeping with what is permitted for “non-essential” businesses and every other indoor activity allowed to continue under Phases Two and Three except religious activity, which alone is still arbitrarily confined to 25% occupancy.

The judge’s statement of the facts noted the government’s response to the anti-racism protests:

Mass race-related protests have erupted across the nation, including in the State of New York, in response to the death of African-American George Floyd on May 25, 2020. Protesters, sometimes in groups of thousands, have taken to the streets of New York City as well as other major cities in the State of New York. During this time, a “social media campaign” has encouraged theaters in New York, which are to be closed until “Phase Four” of New York’s reopening plan, to open their lobbies and restrooms for protesters.

[1.] [Response to the Protests by] Governor Cuomo

During a press conference held on June 1, 2020, when asked if he would “suggest people not go out and protest,” Governor Cuomo answered: “No, I think you can protest, but do it smartly and intelligently…. There were protests all across the country. Protest. Just be smart about it. With this virus, you can do many things now as long as you’re smart about it, right? You can reopen, you can go into a store and you can do a lot of things, just be smart.”

When asked what the difference is “between protesting and a business, say, in the city who wants to reopen smartly if it’s not at the phase yet that they’re technically allowed to,” Governor Cuomo answered: “Well, that’s where we’re at, but it has to be a business where you can be smart. Be smart, meaning socially distant. You don’t conduct business in a way where you have people within six feet. You have to wear the mask. You have to do the hand sanitizer. That’s where we’re going to be.”

During a press conference held on June 4, 2020, when asked about his reopening plans, and if there was a way to “allow high school graduation ceremonies with social distancing,” Governor Cuomo remarked: “Did you hear anything that we’ve been talking about for the past 96 days? … [Y]eah I know everybody wants to go to a high school graduation, I get it. Not if they’re going to die.” When asked how he is able to justify opening a patio for outside dining, but will not allow high school graduation ceremonies with social distancing, Governor Cuomo answered: “What difference does it make? … The issue is a public health issue and you don’t want people sick and dead. It’s about death, it’s about balancing the risk versus the reward, balancing the desires and wants versus the consequences.”

During this same press briefing, Governor Cuomo also stated, “I want to thank the protestors…. I stand with the protestors on the point that we need meaningful reform.”

When explaining the modification of non-essential gatherings for houses of worship to no greater than 25% of the indoor capacity of such location, provided in Order 202.38, Governor Cuomo explained, in part: “We are going to accelerate the opening of temples, mosques, [and] churches…. 25 percent occupancy is not as easy as 100 percent occupancy but 100 percent occupancy is a mass gathering and you really can’t do social distancing.” He further advised New Yorkers to “[b]e smart. It does not mean you go to a temple or a mosque and you sit right next to a person. You have to socially distance.”

[2.] [Response to Earlier Gatherings and Then to the Protests by] Mayor de Blasio

On April 28, Mayor de Blasio appeared in Williamsburg at a Jewish funeral gathering, which was dispersed by the New York Police Department (NYPD). Via Twitter, Mayor de Blasio wrote: “Something absolutely unacceptable happened in Williamsburg tonite [sic]: a large funeral gathering in the middle of this pandemic. When I heard, I went there myself to ensure the crowd was dispersed. And what I saw WILL NOT be tolerated so long as we are fighting the Coronavirus.” This was followed by another tweet: “My message to the Jewish community, and all communities, is this simple: the time for warnings has passed. I have instructed the NYPD to proceed immediately to summons or even arrest those who gather in large groups. This is about stopping this disease and saving lives. Period.”

During a June 2, 2020 media conference, when asked: “What about the retail store owner facing imminent financial ruin or the religious person who cannot [attend a] house of worship? What about their pain and anger?” Mayor de Blasio replied, in part: “When you see a nation, an entire nation simultaneously grappling with an extraordinary crisis seeded in 400 years of American racism[,] I’m sorry[,] [t]hat is not the same question[] as the understandably aggrieved store owner, or the devout religious person who wants to go back to services.”

On June 4, 2020, Mayor de Blasio, without a mask, attended and addressed a political gathering, held in memory of George Floyd. Neither the ten-person limit on outdoor gatherings, nor the social distancing protocols, were adhered to….

The court then turned to the legal analysis:

Having carefully reviewed the relevant issues, and with a firm understanding that the executive branch response to the pandemic has presented issues with a degree of complexity that is unrivaled in recent history, it is plain to this court that the broad limits of that executive latitude have been exceeded. That is not to say that Governor Cuomo or Mayor de Blasio have utterly failed in their reaction to COVID-19. To the contrary, the State of New York, at the moment anyway, is among the best situated states in terms of infection and mortality rates. While there is more clarity every day with respect to the best practices for slowing the spread of COVID-19, there is wide and reasonable disagreement about exactly how to implement rules and regulations to achieve those ends, and, as is particularly present in this case, even more so with respect to reopening in a way that promotes safety, economic viability, and the enjoyment of all the rights that the people of this country and the State of New York are guaranteed. As the Chief Justice recognized in Newsom, it is not the judiciary’s role to second guess the likes of Governor Cuomo or Mayor de Blasio when it comes to decisions they make in such troubling times, that is, until those decisions result in the curtailment of fundamental rights without compelling justification….

“The general applicability requirement [under the Free Exercise Clause] prohibits the government from ‘in a selective manner impos[ing] burdens only on conduct motivated by religious belief.'” “It ‘protect[s] religious observers against unequal treatment, and inequality [that] results when a legislature decides that the governmental interests it seeks to advance are worthy of being pursued only against conduct with a religious motivation.'” “While ‘[a]ll laws are selective to some extent, … categories of selection are of paramount concern when a law has the incidental effect of burdening religious practice.'” “A law is therefore not generally applicable if it is substantially underinclusive such that it regulates religious conduct while failing to regulate secular conduct that is at least as harmful to the legitimate government interests purportedly justifying it.”

“Individualized exemptions are [another] way in which a law can fail to be generally applicable.” In Smith, the Supreme Court explained that, “where the State has in place a system of individual exemptions, it may not refuse to extend that system to cases of ‘religious hardship’ without compelling reason.” Case law within this Circuit supports the notion that individualized de facto exemptions can demonstrate that a challenged law is not generally applicable, and is therefore subject to heightened scrutiny. Along these lines, when the challenged law does not carve out an exemption on its face, the history of enforcement is relevant to the existence of an exemption….

The State argues, in overly-simplistic fashion, that the challenged laws only incidentally impose a burden on religious exercise, and they are neutral and generally applicable, and therefore, only rational basis need be shown, which is self-evident: preventing the spread of COVID-19.

The State was silent with respect to the mass race protests in its written submissions until it filed a supplemental memorandum of law following the return on the motion. In that supplement, the State argues that Governor Cuomo’s “political speech” cannot support a de facto exemption vis-à-vis the mass race protests.

The City initially responded with respect to only the ten-person indoor/outdoor limitation that was applicable in New York City during Phase 1. It argues, like the State, that the challenged laws are neutral and generally applicable, but, unlike the State, the City initially acknowledged the mass race protests and contended that they are not comparable because protests occur outside and religious activity typically occurs inside. Further the City asserts, relying on Calvary Chapel Dayton Valley v. Sisolak (D. Nev. June 11, 2020), that the enforcement of the challenged laws against protesters creates safety concerns and, absent clear patterns of unconstitutional selective enforcement, the court should not second guess the State’s determinations. In its supplemental submission, the City contends that the orthodox Jewish plaintiffs “may no longer seek redress for their alleged injuries” because, as of June 22, New York City has entered Phase 2, which lifts the ten-person indoor/outdoor limitation and imposes a 25% indoor capacity limitation. The City also amplifies its contention, explained for the first time during the motion return, that a de facto exemption has not been created for mass race protesters.

In light of the developments and natural progression of the challenged laws since the motion return, the restrictions and limitations at issue are: (1) a 25% indoor capacity limitation for Phases 2 and 3; (2) a twenty-five-person outdoor gathering limit in Phase 3 locations; and (3) a ten-person outdoor gathering limit in Phase 1 and 2 locations. And the  City’s argument that Schonbrun, Perr, and Mayerfeld “may no longer seek redress” because their region has gone into Phase 2, is rejected. While it is true that their allegations are tailored to the ten-person indoor/outdoor limitation that existed when this matter was commenced, it is readily and reasonably inferable from their allegations that the 25% indoor capacity limitation would continue to burden their free exercise of religion.

The court then held that the restrictions likely weren’t generally applicable, and thus likely violated the Free Exercise Clause:

Assuming, without deciding, that the challenged laws are neutral, plaintiffs have demonstrated a likelihood of success on the merits with respect to their free exercise claim because it appears that the challenged laws are not generally applicable, and that they would fail strict scrutiny.

[1.] 25% Indoor Capacity Limitation

On its face, the 25% indoor capacity limitation applies only to houses of worship. Indeed, that limitation is the only one of its kind in the tangle of executive orders and the Guidance Document that have been issued in response to the pandemic; in other words, no other secular entity, save for those that remain closed in their entirety until Phase 4 or beyond, are limited to only 25% capacity. The “nonessential businesses,” dubbed “Phase 2 industries” by executive order, that enjoy a 50% capacity limitation are, however, not justifiably different than houses of worship.

For example, offices, retail stores that are not inside of shopping malls, and salons were permitted to open at 50% capacity beginning in Phase 2. To a greater or lesser degree, the Phase 2 industries involve the congregation of people for a length of time. And restaurants in Phase 3 locations are permitted to open at 50% capacity indoors. Restaurant patrons sit and congregate with family and friends in close proximity for a lengthy period of time, and have close contact with their hosts and servers. Face coverings may be removed while seated. Additionally, special educational services will be permitted during “the summer term in school districts” with no indoor capacity limitations.

All of this is to demonstrate that these secular businesses/activities threaten defendants’ interest in slowing the spread of COVID-19 to a similar or greater degree than those of plaintiffs’, and demonstrate that the 25% indoor capacity limitation on houses of worship is underinclusive and triggers strict scrutiny review.

{There is also an arguable basis to find a de facto exemption in light of the open lobbies social media campaign. In light of the court’s conclusion that the 25% indoor capacity limitation is not generally applicable because it is underinclusive, it need not reach the individualized exemption argument. Admittedly, the basis of such an argument here is on far shakier footing, given the lack of acknowledgment or endorsement by defendants, than it is with respect to the mass race protests discussed below.}

[2.] Twenty-Five-Person Outdoor Limitation in Phase 3; Ten-Person Outdoor Limitation in Phases 1 and 2

Despite the State’s claim that enforcement power rests with local authorities in an effort to show that selective enforcement against mass race protesters is not a de facto exemption imposed by Governor Cuomo or Attorney General James, Governor Cuomo clearly has authority over the New York State Police and broad powers of enforcement. And, in any case, Governor Cuomo’s comments, which applauded and encouraged protesting and discouraged others from violating the outdoor limitations, likely demonstrate the creation of a de facto exemption.

Mayor de Blasio is a “local authority” with clear enforcement power and has at his disposal one of the largest municipal police departments in the world, and has also actively encouraged participation in protests and openly discouraged religious gatherings and threatened religious worshipers as set forth above. The City’s argument that temporary selective enforcement of the challenged laws with respect to mass race protests is a matter of public safety based on the rationale of Sisolak would perhaps be legitimate but for Mayor de Blasio’s simultaneous pro-protest/anti-religious gathering messages, which clearly undermine the legitimacy of the proffered reason for what seems to be a clear exemption, no matter the reason.

Governor Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio could have just as easily discouraged protests, short of condemning their message, in the name of public health and exercised discretion to suspend enforcement for public safety reasons instead of encouraging what they knew was a flagrant disregard of the outdoor limits and social distancing rules. They could have also been silent. But by acting as they did, Governor Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio sent a clear message that mass protests are deserving of preferential treatment.

Another case of individualized exemption seems even more obvious. The State has specifically authorized outdoor, in-person graduation ceremonies of no more than 150 people beginning today, June 26.  This is an express exemption from the ten- or twenty-five-person outdoor limits that apply across Phases 1, 2, and 3, and the State must extend a similar exemption to plaintiffs absent a compelling reason to the contrary. And there is nothing materially different about a graduation ceremony and a religious gathering such that defendants’ justifications for a difference in treatment can be found compelling.

The judge therefore restrained the defendants

  • from enforcing any indoor gathering limitations against plaintiffs greater than imposed for Phase 2 industries, provided that plaintiffs follow social distancing requirements as set forth in the applicable executive orders and guidance; and
  • from enforcing [presumably, also just against plaintiffs -EV] any limitation for outdoor gatherings provided that participants in such gatherings follow social distancing requirements as set forth in the applicable executive orders and guidance ….

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