Month: December 2020

Russell Routed As ‘Most Shorted’ Stocks Suffer Biggest Puke In 6 Months

Russell Routed As ‘Most Shorted’ Stocks Suffer Biggest Puke In 6 Months

Small Cap stocks were clubbed like a baby seal today with the deluge of selling pressure starting the second the cash market opened. Nasdaq 100 futs desperately scrambled to stay green…

Of course, Small Caps had the most to lose after an exorbitant rise this month so this could be related to rebalancing flows…

Source: Bloomberg

But one thing it definitely did, was crash the relative gains against Big Tech…

It would appear the recent surge in the Russell hit longer-term resistance…

Source: Bloomberg

And the last two days have been the biggest plunge in “most shorted” stocks since June…

Source: Bloomberg

Is the market “stuffed” too full of central-bank liquidity?

“Too stuffed”?

Value and Growth fell today but Value stocks are worst on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Industrials and Energy stocks were the laggards today with Healthcare outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were very modestly offered today with long-end yields up only 1bps (NOTE: again we saw overnight weakness and a bid during the US day)…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields continue to slide, signaling gains ahead for gold…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar slipped lower on the day, back near its lowest close since April 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were flat today, apart from Ripple that was monkeyhammered as Coinbase said it would remove the SEC-Suit-facing asset…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold managed very modest gains despite the dollar weakness…

WTI held on to gains to close around $48 ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

Finally, with moar and moar and moar stimulus handouts expected…

…Bitcoin and Gold have already signaled where the dollar is going…

Source: Bloomberg

And investors are positioning for it. As Bloomberg notes, speculative traders are ending the year betting heavily against the dollar. Net short non-commercial positions in futures linked to the ICE U.S. Dollar Index have surged to the most since March 2011, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Source: Bloomberg

And, in case you wanted another sign of the top…

  • *QUEEN’S GAMBIT GROWTH CAPITAL SEEKS TO RAISE $225M IN SPAC IPO

You’re welcome… and trade accordingly!

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/29/2020 – 16:01

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/37XFp9J Tyler Durden

Jeffrey Epstein’s Cellmate Found Dead Following Bout With COVID-19

Jeffrey Epstein’s Cellmate Found Dead Following Bout With COVID-19

The last man to share a cell with deceased pedophile Jeffrey Epstein is dead, following a bout with COVID-19.

51-year-old Efrain Reyes was one of the unlucky < 0.4% in his age group to succumb to the virus, and was found “unresponsive lying on a bed” on November 27 in his mother’s Bronx apartment, according to the Daily Caller, who was told by NYPD spokesman Sgt. Edward Riley that “EMS responded and performed CPR on the individual but the aided was later pronounced deceased.”

Reyes, who pleaded guilty to narcotics conspiracy involving both crack and heroin, was reportedly at higher risk from the virus due to a combination of heart problems and diabetes.

Though the city Medical Examiner has not determined a cause of death, the former Epstein cellmate reportedly caught the coronavirus while he was in a jail for cooperating witnesses, the New York Daily News reported Monday. He had suffered from both heart problems and diabetes, which are both conditions that are associated with more serious coronavirus cases, the News noted.

Reyes shared a cell with Epstein in August 2019 before he was transferred to Queens Detention Facility, according to the News. The day after Reyes was transferred, Bureau of Prison (BOP) records show, Epstein died of an apparent suicide in a federal jail in New York City in August 2019. –Daily Caller

Reyes’s 27-year-old niece said her uncle was chosen as Epstein’s cellmate due to a disability, a “broken leg,” and because he “kept to himself.” 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/29/2020 – 15:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/38MZsXx Tyler Durden

Abnormal Exxon Option Activity

Abnormal Exxon Option Activity

Submitted by SpotGamma

XOM stock has bounced sharply since November as positive news regarding Covid vaccines sparked a relief rally.

Much of the way traders expressed their bullish sentiment was in call buying, with 11/9 seeing an incredible surge in XOM calls – but this was also seen in other “back to normal” stocks like Carnival Cruises (CCL). With lack of further clarity around when things actually get back to normal, this call volume was subsided, and the stock is hitting resistance.

Note the chart here which shows XOM vs the preeminent “stay at home” stock, ZM. The 11/9 vaccine news drove a sharp dichotomy in performance.

This rapid call activity has greatly changed its options profile over the last several weeks. You can see in the table below that call volume has greatly outpaced put volume over the last five days.

What is interesting is that despite this heavy call volume the stock has not shifted much higher. Our models indicate $42 as a heavy resistance area due to the concentration of options positions at the 42 strike.

This 5 day chart below that the price rejected several tests of $42, and the stock may further consolidate until more clarity arrives around the country re-opening. Mix in the GA elections which could spark some charging political winds in regards to the oil industry which furthers our view that XOM’s run is due to pause.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/29/2020 – 15:19

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3htVDKM Tyler Durden

Latest Decision in Sarah Palin v. N.Y. Times: N.Y.’s New Anti-SLAPP Law Is Retroactive

Sarah_Palin_by_Gage_Skidmore_2_(cropped_3x4)

[1.] Sarah Palin’s libel lawsuit against the New York Times is proceeding, on the theory that a jury could potentially find that the Times people knew their allegations about Palin were false (or at least were likely false). This is the so-called “actual malice” test, which is applied to libel claims brought by public figures such as Palin on matters of public concern (though it doesn’t actually require malice at all). It’s also called the New York Times v. Sullivan test, after the 1964 case that announced the test as to public officials; later cases extended it to other public figures.

[2.] Palin’s lawyers have argued that the “actual malice” test should be overruled or at least sharply limited, and in principle the Supreme Court could agree with them, after the decision at trial and then an appeal to the Second Circuit. In practice, it’s very unlikely that the Court would grant review in this case, and I don’t see much appetite on the Court for overruling New York Times v. Sullivan. (Justice Thomas seems interested in that, but I don’t think four other Justices will join him.) But there certainly has been talk about trying to tee up a case for the Court to consider whether to revisit the matter.

[3.] Today’s decision by Judge Jed Rakoff (S.D.N.Y.) makes it even less likely that Palin v. New York Times would be a vehicle for the Court to overrule its libel precedents.

Earlier this year, New York enacted a long-discussed revision to its “anti-SLAPP statute”—essentially a protection for defendants in libel cases (and some other similar cases). Part of that revision provides that, as a matter of New York state law, libel plaintiffs suing over speech “in connection with an issue of public interest” may only recover damages if they prove “that any communication which gives rise to the action was made with knowledge of its falsity or with reckless disregard of whether it was false.”

For public-concern cases brought by private figures, this statute imposes the “actual malice” for the first time, at least when it comes to compensatory damages. (Before the new statute was enacted, New York essentially applied a sort of gross negligence standard to private-figure/public-concern/compensatory-damages cases.) But for cases brought by public officials or public figures, this revision just codifies the “actual malice” standard.

In today’s decision, Judge Rakoff held that the anti-SLAPP revision was retroactive, in that it covered cases such as Palin’s, which were pending when the revision was enacted. And if the Second Circuit eventually agrees with him on appeal, then the question whether to overrule New York Times v. Sullivan would become irrelevant to the Supreme Court.

The Supreme Court almost never second-guesses lower courts’ interpretations of state law, so it would treat the “actual malice” rule as an independent state law statutory requirement. And if that’s so, then the question whether the New York Times v. Sullivan standard should be preserved as a federal requirement would become (for this case) moot.

[4.] Judge Rakoff’s decision may end up being very important for many pending New York libel cases (including ones dealing with a different part of the anti-SLAPP statute, which changes various rules as to public figure cases as well). As a federal district court case, it isn’t binding precedent, either in state or federal court, but it’s likely to be quite influential (and will be even more influential in state court, and binding in federal court, if the Second Circuit affirms on this score). But in the Palin case itself, it has only the indirect effect that I described.

[Thanks to Gage Skidmore / Wikipedia for the photo of Palin that I’m using here as a featured image.]

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Latest Decision in Sarah Palin v. N.Y. Times: N.Y.’s New Anti-SLAPP Law Is Retroactive

Sarah_Palin_by_Gage_Skidmore_2_(cropped_3x4)

[1.] Sarah Palin’s libel lawsuit against the New York Times is proceeding, on the theory that a jury could potentially find that the Times people knew their allegations about Palin were false (or at least were likely false). This is the so-called “actual malice” test, which is applied to libel claims brought by public figures such as Palin on matters of public concern (though it doesn’t actually require malice at all). It’s also called the New York Times v. Sullivan test, after the 1964 case that announced the test as to public officials; later cases extended it to other public figures.

[2.] Palin’s lawyers have argued that the “actual malice” test should be overruled or at least sharply limited, and in principle the Supreme Court could agree with them, after the decision at trial and then an appeal to the Second Circuit. In practice, it’s very unlikely that the Court would grant review in this case, and I don’t see much appetite on the Court for overruling New York Times v. Sullivan. (Justice Thomas seems interested in that, but I don’t think four other Justices will join him.) But there certainly has been talk about trying to tee up a case for the Court to consider whether to revisit the matter.

[3.] Today’s decision by Judge Jed Rakoff (S.D.N.Y.) makes it even less likely that Palin v. New York Times would be a vehicle for the Court to overrule its libel precedents.

Earlier this year, New York enacted a long-discussed revision to its “anti-SLAPP statute”—essentially a protection for defendants in libel cases (and some other similar cases). Part of that revision provides that, as a matter of New York state law, libel plaintiffs suing over speech “in connection with an issue of public interest” may only recover damages if they prove “that any communication which gives rise to the action was made with knowledge of its falsity or with reckless disregard of whether it was false.”

For public-concern cases brought by private figures, this statute imposes the “actual malice” for the first time, at least when it comes to compensatory damages. (Before the new statute was enacted, New York essentially applied a sort of gross negligence standard to private-figure/public-concern/compensatory-damages cases.) But for cases brought by public officials or public figures, this revision just codifies the “actual malice” standard.

In today’s decision, Judge Rakoff held that the anti-SLAPP revision was retroactive, in that it covered cases such as Palin’s, which were pending when the revision was enacted. And if the Second Circuit eventually agrees with him on appeal, then the question whether to overrule New York Times v. Sullivan would become irrelevant to the Supreme Court.

The Supreme Court almost never second-guesses lower courts’ interpretations of state law, so it would treat the “actual malice” rule as an independent state law statutory requirement. And if that’s so, then the question whether the New York Times v. Sullivan standard should be preserved as a federal requirement would become (for this case) moot.

[4.] Judge Rakoff’s decision may end up being very important for many pending New York libel cases (including ones dealing with a different part of the anti-SLAPP statute, which changes various rules as to public figure cases as well). As a federal district court case, it isn’t binding precedent, either in state or federal court, but it’s likely to be quite influential (and will be even more influential in state court, and binding in federal court, if the Second Circuit affirms on this score). But in the Palin case itself, it has only the indirect effect that I described.

[Thanks to Gage Skidmore / Wikipedia for the photo of Palin that I’m using here as a featured image.]

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US Troops In S.Korea First To Receive Mass Vaccination As Host Country Cases Soar

US Troops In S.Korea First To Receive Mass Vaccination As Host Country Cases Soar

The first large-scale Pentagon vaccination effort of US troops stationed abroad is focusing on units stationed in South Korea, according to US Forces Korea (USFK), where they daily stare down a nuclear North Korea. 

An official USFK statement reported in AFP said the military “administered initial doses of the Moderna vaccine for military and civilian healthcare workers, first responders and command staff across its medical treatment facilities in the country” at a moment the host country is experiencing a third devastating wave of coronavirus infections. 

At this moment the vaccine remains voluntary among the some 28,500 US troops stationed in South Korea. “I want you to make an informed decision for you and your family regarding the vaccine,” USFK Commander Robert Abrams said in a statement.

Gen. Abrams was earlier photographed personally receiving the vaccine in order to encourage all personnel to follow. Moderna is reportedly being administered at four US locations abroad based on FDA emergency authorization issued a week-and-a-half ago.

Meanwhile South Korea on Tuesday announced a record single-day number of deaths:

South Korea on Tuesday announced a record 40 deaths from COVID-19, as daily coronavirus cases rose to more than 1,000 again and the government moved to procure more vaccines.

The daily death toll – the highest since the country reported its first case of coronavirus in late January – comes amid a stubborn third wave of infections that have forced the authorities to tighten social-distancing measures, amid what the Yonhap news agency described as a “looming medical system crisis”.

Via US Forces Korea

President Moon Jae-in and Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel agreed on a video call Monday for the country to procure enough vaccine doses for 20 million South Koreans, expected to be delivered by the second quarter of 2021.

Alongside other vaccine agreements for procurement, South Korea is expected to eventually have enough shots to cover over 50 million South Koreans.

On Tuesday the country announced 1,046 more cases, taking the number of confirmed infections to 58,725, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA).

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/29/2020 – 15:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3hq7KIQ Tyler Durden

More Terrorism On The Tracks? Officials In Washington Investigate Latest Train Derailment

More Terrorism On The Tracks? Officials In Washington Investigate Latest Train Derailment

By Bill Wilson of RT&S,

Officials are trying to figure out how a BNSF train carrying crude oil derailed in Whatcom County, Wash., on Dec. 22. The accident caused a fire that lasted well into the night. First responders eventually got the fire under control.

About seven railcars left the tracks near Custer, Wash. No injuries were reported and the scene was still being cleaned the morning of Dec. 23.

Everyone within a half-mile radius was asked to evacuate, and the Whatcom County Sheriff’s Office told people to stay away from the accident scene. Interstate 5 was closed between Grandview Road and Birch Bay Lynden Road for about one hour.

BNSF says two workers were on the train when it derailed. The train was traveling to a refinery in Ferndale and was pulling 108 cars.

The Washington Department of Ecology was on the scene to determine if there was any damage to the environment, and a spokesperson said it could take months to return the area to the condition it was in prior to the derailment.

The state of Washington has been experiencing deliberate acts to paralyze trains over the past year. Since January there have been 41 incidents of shunts placed on BNSF tracks in Whatcom and Skagit counties.

The FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force has been investigating the placement of shunts on the BNSF tracks since Jan. 19.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/29/2020 – 14:42

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3aNYD3z Tyler Durden

COVID-19 Herd Immunity Is Possible Before Spring If the FDA Gets Out of the Way

COVIDGenericVaccineLeighPratherDreamstime

Twenty million Americans will not be vaccinated by the end of this year as promised by the federal government. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) just over 2.1 million Americans have received the first dose COVID-19 vaccines and nearly 11.5 doses have been distributed. That number is tens of millions fewer vaccinated people than is needed to reach the herd immunity threshold that would effectively stop the pandemic.

Herd immunity is the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease that results if a sufficiently high proportion of a population is immune to the illness. Some people are still susceptible, but they are surrounded by immune individuals who serve as a barrier, preventing the microbes from reaching them. Epidemiologists typically estimate that the COVID-19 threshold for herd immunity is around 60 to 70 percent.

Independent data scientist Youyang Gu over at the COVID-19 Projections website takes a heavily caveated but informative stab at calculating when the U.S. might achieve herd immunity to the coronavirus in the next year. The upshot: “We estimate COVID-19 herd immunity (>60% of population immune) will be reached in the US during summer 2021 (Jun-Aug 2021).” Achieving that goal means that approximately 200 million Americans will be immune to the virus by summer. Let’s take a look at how Gu and his colleagues navigate the pathway to COVID-19 herd immunity in the U.S.

Interestingly, Gu estimates that roughly half of herd immunity will be achieved through natural infection, that is, he calculates that around 105 million Americans will have been infected before the end of 2021, most of them by April. That’s up from an estimated 66 million infected as of mid-December. As a result of the additional infections, the final death toll from the disease will rise to around 500,000 people. For context, diagnosed cases are just over 19 million with 332,000 deaths so far.

Unfortunately Gu expects that the U.S. vaccine campaign’s slow start will result in only 2 percent of Americans gaining full two-dose vaccine immunity by the end of January. Less pessimistically, he estimates that 25 million Americans will have gotten at least the first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of January. One of Gu’s big caveats is that he only counts the immunity that was acquired first (e.g., if an individual has both immunity from natural infection and immunity from vaccination, Gu only counts the immunity from infection). Basically, lot of people who have become immune due to having been previously infected (many asymptomatic) will also end up being vaccinated.

As more Americans get vaccinated, Gu projects that the rate of daily COVID-19 infections will begin a steep decline in April. Consequently, his best estimate of a complete “return to normal” in the U.S. is mid-summer 2021 (June/July). He defines “normality” as the removal of all COVID-19-related restrictions and interventions.

However, Gu suggests that there is a way for the U.S. to reach the herd immunity threshold of 60 percent as early as March. How? Since one-dose of both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are nearly 90 percent effective, just give each person one-dose instead of requiring two. The problem is that hyper-cautious Food and Drug Administration regulators are unlikely to risk taking this step. In addition, Gu suggests prioritizing people for vaccination who have not already been infected.

Another big caveat is that Gu’s calculations take into account just the rollout of the two currently approved vaccines. He notes if additional vaccines—such as those developed by AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson—become available in early 2021 that will increase vaccine uptake, thus speeding up the process of reaching herd immunity.

According to recent news reports, AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot believes that his company has worked out a dosing formula that boosts its two-dose virus-vector vaccine to around 90 percent efficacy at preventing COVID-19 infections. The U.K. is reportedly on the verge of approving it for distribution as early as this week. The U.S. government has agreed to purchase as many 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine. If the data from Johnson & Johnson’s clinical trial for its one-dose virus-vector vaccine shows that it provides significant protection against COVID-19, it could be approved before the end of January. The company has contracted with the federal government to provide 100 million doses of its vaccine.

If government regulators cut through bureaucratic red tape, the U.S. would have a good chance to essentially end the pandemic before spring. Will they? Probably not.

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Poetry Tuesday!: “The reticent volcano keeps…” by Emily Dickinson

In this age of Internet and social media, Emily Dickinson tells us to be as quiet as a volcano.

Here’s “The reticent volcano keeps…” (1897) by Emily Dickinson (1830-1886).

For the rest of my playlist, click here. Past poems are:

  1. “Ulysses” by Alfred, Lord Tennyson
  2. “The Pulley” by George Herbert
  3. “Harmonie du soir” by Charles Baudelaire
  4. “Dirge Without Music” by Edna St. Vincent Millay
  5. “Clancy of the Overflow” by A.B. “Banjo” Paterson
  6. “Лотова жена” (“Lotova zhena”, “Lot’s wife”) by Anna Akhmatova
  7. “The Jumblies” by Edward Lear
  8. “The Conqueror Worm” by Edgar Allan Poe
  9. “Les Djinns” by Victor Hugo
  10. “I Have a Rendezvous with Death” by Alan Seeger
  11. “When I Was One-and-Twenty” by A.E. Housman
  12. “Узник” (“Uznik”, “The Prisoner” or “The Captive”) by Aleksandr Pushkin
  13. “God’s Grandeur” by Gerard Manley Hopkins
  14. “The Song of Wandering Aengus” by William Butler Yeats
  15. “Je crains pas ça tellment” by Raymond Queneau
  16. “The Naming of Cats” by T.S. Eliot

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COVID-19 Herd Immunity Is Possible Before Spring If the FDA Gets Out of the Way

COVIDGenericVaccineLeighPratherDreamstime

Twenty million Americans will not be vaccinated by the end of this year as promised by the federal government. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) just over 2.1 million Americans have received the first dose COVID-19 vaccines and nearly 11.5 doses have been distributed. That number is tens of millions fewer vaccinated people than is needed to reach the herd immunity threshold that would effectively stop the pandemic.

Herd immunity is the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease that results if a sufficiently high proportion of a population is immune to the illness. Some people are still susceptible, but they are surrounded by immune individuals who serve as a barrier, preventing the microbes from reaching them. Epidemiologists typically estimate that the COVID-19 threshold for herd immunity is around 60 to 70 percent.

Independent data scientist Youyang Gu over at the COVID-19 Projections website takes a heavily caveated but informative stab at calculating when the U.S. might achieve herd immunity to the coronavirus in the next year. The upshot: “We estimate COVID-19 herd immunity (>60% of population immune) will be reached in the US during summer 2021 (Jun-Aug 2021).” Achieving that goal means that approximately 200 million Americans will be immune to the virus by summer. Let’s take a look at how Gu and his colleagues navigate the pathway to COVID-19 herd immunity in the U.S.

Interestingly, Gu estimates that roughly half of herd immunity will be achieved through natural infection, that is, he calculates that around 105 million Americans will have been infected before the end of 2021, most of them by April. That’s up from an estimated 66 million infected as of mid-December. As a result of the additional infections, the final death toll from the disease will rise to around 500,000 people. For context, diagnosed cases are just over 19 million with 332,000 deaths so far.

Unfortunately Gu expects that the U.S. vaccine campaign’s slow start will result in only 2 percent of Americans gaining full two-dose vaccine immunity by the end of January. Less pessimistically, he estimates that 25 million Americans will have gotten at least the first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of January. One of Gu’s big caveats is that he only counts the immunity that was acquired first (e.g., if an individual has both immunity from natural infection and immunity from vaccination, Gu only counts the immunity from infection). Basically, lot of people who have become immune due to having been previously infected (many asymptomatic) will also end up being vaccinated.

As more Americans get vaccinated, Gu projects that the rate of daily COVID-19 infections will begin a steep decline in April. Consequently, his best estimate of a complete “return to normal” in the U.S. is mid-summer 2021 (June/July). He defines “normality” as the removal of all COVID-19-related restrictions and interventions.

However, Gu suggests that there is a way for the U.S. to reach the herd immunity threshold of 60 percent as early as March. How? Since one-dose of both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are nearly 90 percent effective, just give each person one-dose instead of requiring two. The problem is that hyper-cautious Food and Drug Administration regulators are unlikely to risk taking this step. In addition, Gu suggests prioritizing people for vaccination who have not already been infected.

Another big caveat is that Gu’s calculations take into account just the rollout of the two currently approved vaccines. He notes if additional vaccines—such as those developed by AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson—become available in early 2021 that will increase vaccine uptake, thus speeding up the process of reaching herd immunity.

According to recent news reports, AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot believes that his company has worked out a dosing formula that boosts its two-dose virus-vector vaccine to around 90 percent efficacy at preventing COVID-19 infections. The U.K. is reportedly on the verge of approving it for distribution as early as this week. The U.S. government has agreed to purchase as many 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine. If the data from Johnson & Johnson’s clinical trial for its one-dose virus-vector vaccine shows that it provides significant protection against COVID-19, it could be approved before the end of January. The company has contracted with the federal government to provide 100 million doses of its vaccine.

If government regulators cut through bureaucratic red tape, the U.S. would have a good chance to essentially end the pandemic before spring. Will they? Probably not.

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