SUNY Suspends Education Student For Posting Views On Biological Gender

SUNY Suspends Education Student For Posting Views On Biological Gender

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

There could be a significant First Amendment case brewing in New York after the School of Education at the State University of New York-Geneseo suspended student Owen Stevens for posting his view that gender is limited to biologically males and females.  As a state institution, SUNY is subject to the limitations of the First Amendment and Stevens could challenge the action based on his statements on Instagram.

I have not been able to find the letter sent to Stevens by the school but it is quoted on a conservative website, The Daily Wire. According to that report, Owen posted on Instagram that there are only two genders. This may be that posting:

The school reportedly maintains that such statements made on social media are grounds for suspension and other disciplinary action. 

While she did not refer to him by name, SUNY-Geneseo President Denise Battles sent out a message stating that “[y]esterday, I was made aware of a current student’s Instagram posts pertaining to transgender people.” Battles acknowledges that “There are clear legal limitations to what a public university can do in response to objectionable speech.

As a result, there are few tools at our disposal to reduce the pain that such speech may cause.” However, the school then suspended Stevens.

A spokesperson is quoted by the Daily Wire declaring students must follow the “professional standards” of their chosen field by acting and behaving in ways that “may differ from their personal predilections.”

That does not sound like an accommodation of the First Amendment, which protects your right to express your “personal predilections.” Many object to his view of transgender persons, but it is a view that often expresses a myriad of religious, political, social, and biological beliefs.

The suspension letter reportedly states:

You continue to maintain, “I do not recognize the gender that they claim to be if they are not biologically that gender.”

This public position is in conflict with the Dignity for All Students Act requiring teachers to maintain a classroom environment protecting the mental and emotional well-being of all students.

The question is whether holding such beliefs means that Smith is incapable of maintaining a classroom that is respectful and protective of all students, including transgender students. We have previously discussed professors who express animosity toward white students, males, or conservatives but few have been subject to suspension or termination unless they manifest such bias or prejudice in classrooms or on campus. (See stories herehereherehere, and here) I have long opposed discipline for teachers for their expression of political or social views outside of schools. Indeed, as we have previously discussed, one professor called for more Trump supporters to be killed. Another called for strangling police. Rhode Island Professor Erik Loomis, who writes for the site Lawyers, Guns, and Money, said he saw “nothing wrong” with the killing of a conservative protester — a view defended by other academics.  Yet, recently a professor was suspended for writing against reparations.  The result seems like a sharp divergent treatment based on the content of views on the left or the right of the political spectrum in the treatment of faculty members.

The spokesperson told the site that “SUNY Geneseo respects every student’s right to freedom of speech and expression,” but “[b]y choosing to enter into certain professional fields, students agree to abide by the professional standards of their chosen field. At times, these professional standards dictate that students act and behave in certain ways that may differ from their personal predilections.”

Yet, Smith is not saying that he would apply his views in classrooms or refuse to comply with “professional standards.” Instead, the school seems to be saying that one of those professional standards is conforming your views (or at least your public statements) to the accepted views of a “chosen field.” That would seem like the abridgment of free speech.

Again, we do not have to agree with Smith to support his right to speak freely. We often support the free speech rights of individuals who espouse views that we find offensive or even grotesque. You cannot say that you are in favor of free speech so long as you do not use it in a way that we do not like. It is hard to see any limiting principle in the position of SUNY-Geneseo. It would mean that the “chosen field” of any student could limit their ability to speak out on issues in their private lives. The alternative is to enforce “professional standards” by requiring adherence to those standards in the professional setting.

The school may be looking at a substantial free speech challenge in this case and we will continue to follow it.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/27/2021 – 15:30

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“Begging The Fed For Guidance”: BofA Expects The Fed To Address Markets “As Soon As This Week”

“Begging The Fed For Guidance”: BofA Expects The Fed To Address Markets “As Soon As This Week”

In the immediate aftermath of Thursday’s catastrophic 7Y auction – arguably the one Treasury auction that came the closest to failing with a record low bid to cover…

… and a record plunge in Indirect (foreign) demand…

… and which triggered a stop-loss liquidation cascade across the curve, but nowhere more so than in the 5Ys…

… we said that it is of utmost urgency for the Fed to step in and restore some stability in what is – at least in theory – the world’s most liquidity bond market.

So far the Fed has refused to intervene and stabilize the bond market, despite a surge in bond implied volatility that threatens to spillover in deeper into stockland and hammer the VIX.

Curiously, with European nominal rates still deeply negative despite the recent rout, it was an ECB banker – Greek Yannis Stournaras – who yesterday became the first to openly call for more QE in response to the soaring yields (here the “thinking” supposedly goes that when a flood of money finally triggers the inflation central bankers have been demanding for years, they want to add even more money to counterbalance it’s effect. Yes, this idiocy is considered high economic thought these days.)

In any case, on Friday Bank of America agreed with our view that some verbal Fed intervention is paramount, writing that “the market is begging the Fed for greater guidance” – something the Fed has generously provided in the past during times of market stress – and states that it now “expects the Fed to clarify policy expectations in the March FOMC meeting.”

Why? Because, as BofA chief economist Ethan Harris writes, “the Fed is in a bind” since rising interest rates (“shall we say tantrum?”), prompted a tightening of financial conditions, yet at the same time the market is adamant that “higher rates may be justified.”

Harris then notes that “since the Fed relies on “open mouth operations” to guide markets when the policy winds shift” it has become quite clear that “markets are asking for greater guidance.” Something we tweeted two days ago. Harris’ conclusion: a shift in Fed speak is coming at the upcoming FOMC meeting.

So what could the Fed say?

Looking back at prior policy shifts, BofA notes that the Fed has experimented with different forms of “open mouth operations.”


Early in the cycle, the Fed embraced threshold-based guidance. The prime example was between Dec 2012 and Dec 2013 when the Fed promised to keep rates at the zero-lower-bound until the unemployment rate fell below 6.5%. It turns out that NAIRU was a lot lower than 6.5%.

The Fed then pivoted to qualitative guidance. By March 2014, the Fed noted that rates would remain low for a “considerable time” after the asset purchase program ended. In December 2014, the Fed introduced the idea of “patience” in the path to normalizing rates. The buzz word of patience lasted until the summer when it started to lose favor.

By October 2015, the Fed statement discussed “whether it would be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting.” Back then, it took about 6 months for the Fed to transition the message and set the stage for hikes.

What is the take home lesson to Bank of America from these examples? 

  1. Qualitative guidance works better than quantitative;
  2. “Buzz” words help to set expectations;
  3. Slowly warn about policy changes – a 6 month window to set expectations could be appropriate.

As to why the Fed needs such a lengthy lead-in period, Harris puts it, “don’t tighten before you want to tighten” and explains that “on the one hand ‘open mouth operations’ avoid big market surprises when policy is changed. On the other hand, by shifting guidance slowly and well in advance, markets respond early and financial conditions tighten earlier too.

Indeed, Exhibit 5 and Exhibit 6 show that there is a positive relationship between the change in fed funds expectations and the change in 10Y yields, while there is little to no relationship between the actual change in the fed funds rate and the change in 10Y yields.

“And so by the time the Fed hikes, the market is over it.”

That means that far from the Fed keeping silent until 2023 or even 2022 before addressing the violent tightening in financial conditions – as by then the bond market could well be in ruins – it will instead have to do so as soon as March 17 FOMC meeting which is in two weeks, when BofA warns to “expect the Fed to clarify policy expectations.” In fact, the bank cautions, that “if the abrupt market moves persist, Fed officials might speak up as early as this coming week.”

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/27/2021 – 15:00

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As Lumber Prices Hit Record High, Homebuilders Urge Biden To Intervene

As Lumber Prices Hit Record High, Homebuilders Urge Biden To Intervene

By Robert Dalheim of Woodworking Network,

Lumber prices have hit $1,000 per thousand board feet, an all-time high, according to data from Random Lengths. That’s double the price from three months ago.

“Price increases—some to record-setting levels—and long delivery delays are causing hardships for construction firms that are also experiencing challenges in completing projects with crews limited by illness or new work site procedures resulting from the pandemic,” the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) wrote in a release.

“The extreme price increases, as reflected in today’s producer price index report and other sources, are harming contractors on existing projects and making it difficult to bid new work at a profitable level,” said Ken Simonson, the association’s chief economist. “While contractors have kept bids nearly flat until now, project owners and budget officials should anticipate the prospect that contractors will have to pass along their higher costs in upcoming bids.”

The AGC has joined the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) in urging intervention from President Biden.

“AGC believes the White House can play a constructive role in mitigating this growing threat to multifamily housing and other construction sectors by urging domestic lumber producers to ramp up production to ease growing shortages and making it a priority to work with Canada on a new softwood lumber agreement,” the AGC wrote in a letter.

“We also urge the administration to look for ways to facilitate shortening delivery times of lumber to end users. This could include easing cross-border truck and rail shipments, unloading at ports, hauling of logs and other raw materials to mills and engineered-wood producers, and shipping wood products to distributors and construction sites.”

The NAHB called on the White House the end tariffs on Canadian lumber shipments last week.

“Lumber price spikes are not only sidelining buyers during a period of high demand, they are causing many sales to fall through and forcing builders to put projects on hold at a time when home inventories are already at a record low,” it said in a statement.

Higher prices are likely behind the drop in single-family housing starts for January, which saw a 12 percent dip from December. OSB prices have also tripled since April.

Some of our readers have told us that the rising prices are affecting their woodworking companies. 

“The price increases are also crushing the industrial/furniture market,” one reader wrote. “As a woodworking company we worry that these prices will tip some of our clients towards tooling wood parts in plastic or other materials. Once that happens the clients are lost forever. Many of our clients don’t believe us when we explain the cost of plywood and other sheet products. We send them the invoices so that they can compare what we quoted to what we need based on current plywood prices. Don’t forget that the housing market is always at the front of the line and the woodworkers way at the back – even in good times.”

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/27/2021 – 14:30

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GoFundMe Campaign Seeks $15,000 For Silver Short Squeeze Billboards

GoFundMe Campaign Seeks $15,000 For Silver Short Squeeze Billboards

Thanks to some on r/WallStreetBets (WSB) and others on social media, the wider public is starting to grasp the corruption and cronyism in the financial markets including in the paper gold and paper silver markets. 

The silver bullion market is one of the most manipulated on earth. After WSB ‘Reddit-Raiders’ sent GameStop shares sky-high earlier this month, some on the forum attempted to squeeze banks that are manipulating silver markets.

Judging by the unprecedented flows into the Silver ETF (SLV) weeks ago, almost double the previous record inflow for this 15-year-old ETF, the awareness only continues to grow. 

Despite the dismal squeeze on the paper markets, there was an “unprecedented” grab for physical silver, according to BullionStar.com

Just as Redditors bought billboards in Times Square and across the country, urging people to buy GameStop – it appears someone and a whole lot of donors is raising money to fund “Silver Squeeze” billboards. 

On popular crowdfunding platform “GoFundMe,” someone named Ivan Bayoukhi created a campaign to raise money to fund billboards for the awareness of “Silver Squeeze.” 

So far, 310 donors have raised $12,513 out of the $15,000 goal – and while billboard ad space is cheap because of the crushing virus pandemic denting the ad space – why the hell not. 

Here’s what the description of the “Silver Squeeze” GoFundMe campaign says:

Silver movement will be Epic..

Couple of months or years down the lane and people will look back and say how this whole thing started..some 20000 like-minded guys, got tired of manipulation and started doing something that banks had no defense for..buy physical!! We chose to play the game on our turf and theirs.

Its matter of days or months when this community gets to million+ and imagine the horsepower when all these guys start buying..

THIS IS A FUNDRAISER FOR BILLBOARDS SO WE CAN RAISE AWARENESS TO THE MASSES 

Average people banning together in a collective manner against Wall Street hedge funds are epic – can almost describe these folks as ‘decentralized hedge funds’ of the people for the people waging war on big bankers. 

Donors of the “Silver Squeeze” commented as saying:

“Slv options are gonna pop!!,” Tom Johnsohn Hiscock who donated $50 to the cause. 

“A very very effective location for you would be the Trans Canada Highway between Calgary and Banff!! 33,000 vehicles per day average. There is a row of billboards there,” said donor Jeremy Tufts. 

“Time for main street to overtake wall street,” said Brian Berkley who donated $100.

F@ck JPM,” donor ian farmer who gave $20 to the cause. 

With another round of stimulus checks coming down the pipe – the question is what will people buy – more GameStop, other ‘meme stonks,’ long volatility ETFs, physical silver, and or SLV. 

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/27/2021 – 14:00

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Jerome ‘Von Havenstein’: Inflation… Or Bust!

Jerome ‘Von Havenstein’: Inflation… Or Bust!

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

This week brought forth new evidence that – to be perfectly frank – we’re all screwed.

On Thursday, the yield on the 10 year Treasury note topped 1.55 percent.  Subsequently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, after hitting an all-time high on Wednesday, dropped 559 points.  Wall Street must not be listening to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Earlier in the week, Powell, in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, confirmed that the central bank would keep the federal funds rate near zero until maximum employment is achieved.  In addition, the Fed, in its recently released semiannual Monetary Policy Report, confirmed it would continue to create credit from thin air to buy $80 billion per month of Treasuries and $40 billion per month of mortgage backed securities (MBS).

What’s more, the Report specified the Fed’s purchases of Treasuries and MBS “…will continue at least at this pace until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals.”  The operative words being, “at least.”

What to make of it…

Central banking is a form of central planning.  And central planning is a form of state control.  And state control, as practiced in the United States, pertains not so much to the economics of producing income; but, rather, the methods for redistributing it.

State control, through inflationism, takes money saved and earned by individuals and covertly redistributes it to the central authority – i.e., Washington.  There it is consumed by ever expanding government social programs and colossal pentagon budgets.  What remains is wasted away by the endless array of bureaucracies and agencies.

Powell, without question, is a man of unyielding principles.  His core beliefs align with the central authority.  They also align with the twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks, which, according to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals“are independent, privately owned and locally controlled corporations.”

Hence, Powell endeavors to keep Federal Reserve Banks and their member banks flush with cash and liquidity.  He also endeavors to provide Washington an endless supply of cheap credit.

The point is, the higher interest rates run, the more Powell will intervene in credit markets, via Treasury and MBS purchases, to hold rates down.  The goal of maximum employment is merely a cover for what will be several trillion dollars more in quantitative easing.

Powell, we presume, grasps the importance of history.  He surely knows all fiat money is doomed to failure.  And he surely knows the dollar’s current place in a fiat money’s lifecycle.

Powell, no doubt, recognizes the dollar’s end is nigh.  But what can he really do?  He has a tiger by the tail.  He can’t reverse course.  Like others before him, he must ride it to the bitter end…

The Grandmaster of Monetary Stimulus

Rudolf von Havenstein had been president of the Reichsbank – the German central bank – since 1908.  He knew the workings of central bank debt issuances better than anyone.  He was a central banker’s central banker.  He was good at it.

Thus, when he was called upon by history to deliver a miracle for the Deutches Reich in the aftermath of WWI, he knew exactly what to do.  He’d deliver monetary stimulus.  In fact, he’d already been at it for several years.

On August 4, 1914, at the start of the war to end all wars, the Goldmark – or gold-backed Reichmark – became the unbacked Papermark.  With gold out of the picture, the money supply could be expanded to meet the endless demands of war.

To this end, von Havenstein took public debt from 5.2 billion marks in 1914 to 105.3 billion marks in 1918.  Over this time, he increased the quantity of marks from 5.9 billion to 32.9 billion.  German wholesale prices rose 115 percent.

By the war’s end, Germany’s economy was in shambles.  Industrial production in 1920 had slipped to just 61 percent of the level seen in 1913.  With a weak economy, and under the crushing weight of debt, it was time for von Havenstein to really crank up the money printers.

In truth, he didn’t have much of a choice.  The limits of fiscal and monetary prudence had been crossed when the Goldmark was replaced with the Papermark.  Reversing course now would have brought an immediate economic collapse and societal discord.

Von Havenstein, faced with the choice of post-war depression or inflation, chose what he thought would be the easier softer way.  He considered inflation the lesser of two evils.  Plus it would lighten Germany’s war debt.

Jerome von Havenstein: Inflation Or Bust

Initially, the ill effects of the Reichsbank’s money supply inflation seemed to be limited.  As real, inflation adjusted wages declined, unemployment actually fell to record lows.  But, alas, a real McCoy crack-up boom was underway.

As the value of the Papermark continued to decline wage earners were continually shredded.  To combat the increasing destruction to wage earners the German government introduced mandatory wage indexing.  Upon this government intervention, unemployment immediately soared…running from record lows to record highs within just two years.

At the same time the decline in the Papermark’s purchasing power and external value accelerated until the currency, for all practical purposes, ceased to function as a viable medium of exchange.

Indeed, printing money can be stressful.  But printing extreme amounts of money can be downright terminal.

By the time von Havenstein died in late-November 1923 of a myocardial infarction, the central bank of Germany had printed over 500 quintillion marks.  Moderate inflation transformed to hyperinflation.  One U.S. dollar was worth 4.2 trillion marks by December 1923.

Moreover, the destruction of the mark brought destruction of society…and the rise of national socialism.  The medium-term political repercussions of this economic catastrophe soon engulfed the whole world.

Jerome Powell, like Rudolf von Havenstein, knows exactly what he’s doing.  In fact, he’s told the world what he’s doing.  It’s inflation or bust.

The gold market, which has slumped to below $1,800 per ounce, must think he’s bluffing.  This is a mistake.  If you understand nothing else understand this: Powell’s pursuit of inflation is as serious as a von Havenstein heart attack.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/27/2021 – 13:30

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The State of the Legal Struggle Over the CDC Eviction Moratorium

Eviction Moratorium

As co-blogger Josh Blackman notes, a federal district court ruling recently concluded that the Center for Disease Control nationwide moratorium on evictions is unconstitutional, in Terkel v. CDC (Eastern District of Texas). On the other hand, two earlier district court decisions—Chambless Enterprises v. Redfield (W.D. Louisiana), and  Brown v. Azar (N.D. Georgia)—have upheld the legality of the CDC order. Technically, these rulings addressed the original CDC moratorium enacted in September under the Trump administration, rather than its extension by Biden. But they nonetheless address essentially the same policy, because Biden’s version is simply an extension of Trump’s.

While the three cases  consider the same CDC order, they actually deal with different types of arguments against it. Brown and Chambless primarily focus on claims that the CDC exceeded its authority under the relevant federal law and that interpreting the law broadly enough to allow the eviction moratorium would violate the “nondelegation” doctrine (which limits the extent to which Congress can delegate its lawmaking authority to the executive branch). By contrast, Terkel considers the argument that the moratorium exceeds the power of the federal government under its authority to regulate interstate commerce, even as augmented by the Necessary and Proper Clause. If that argument (the only one made by the plaintiffs in Terkel) prevails, the eviction moratorium would be unconstitutional even if properly authorized by Congress.

In my view, which on this point aligns with that of most other academics, the nondelegation and statutory arguments rejected in Brown and Chambless are much stronger than the limited power theory that prevailed in Terkel. But I have to admit that, so far, the arguments I like better have not done as well as the one I am much more skeptical about. It could be just a function of the particular judges who heard the three cases. Judge J. Campbell Barker, who heard the Texas case is a conservative Trump appointee; but the same is true of Judge J.P. Boulee, who decided Brown v. Azar. So I have to admit that this might be a situation where judges’ views of which arguments are best don’t align with those of legal scholars. If so, it would be far from the first such occasion!

Nonetheless, I continue to think that the Brown and Chambless rulings were too quick to dismiss the statutory and nondelegation theories, while the limited power argument is more problematic. In my view, the judges in Brown and Chambless, fail to take sufficient account of the fact that the government’s interpretation of the relevant authorizing statute would give the CDC the power to suppress almost any human activity at any time. If the government is right to argue that the statutes and regulations in question give the CDC the power to impose a nationwide eviction moratorium, as opposed to more narrowly targeted local measures, the same logic would give it virtually unlimited authority to ban other economic and social activities. I explain the point here:

[U]nder the text of the regulation [and the authorizing statute], the CDC need not prove that the regulations in question really are “reasonably necessary” or that state restrictions really are “insufficient.” They need only assert (“deem”) that such is the case.

This broad interpretation of the regulation would give the executive the power to restrict almost any type of activity. Pretty much any economic transaction or movement of people and  goods could potentially spread disease in some way. Nor is that authority limited to particularly deadly diseases such as Covid-19. It could just as readily apply to virtually any other communicable disease, such as the flu or even the common cold.

Every year, thousands of people die because of the flu, and restrictions on mobility or on economic and social activity could  be seen as “reasonable” ways to limit its spread. 42 CFR Section 70.1 (on which the definition of disease in Section 70.2 is based) in fact defines “communicable diseases” as “illnesses due to infectious agents or their toxic products, which may be transmitted from a reservoir to a susceptible host either directly as from an infected person or animal or indirectly through the agency of an intermediate plant or animal host, vector, or the inanimate environment.” Notice that this applies to any disease spread by “infectious agents,” regardless of severity. The flu and the common cold clearly qualify!

If Trump can use this authority to impose a nationwide eviction moratorium, Joe Biden (or some other future president) could use it to impose a nationwide mask mandate, a nationwide lockdown, or just about any other restriction of any activity that could potentially reduce the spread of the flu, the common cold, or any other disease.

Such virtually limitless executive authority to impose restrictions and mandates would make a hash of the separation of powers, enabling the president to circumvent Congress’s authority on a massive scale. It also would completely undermine any semblance of “nondelegation” restrictions on grants of power to the executive.

In Chambless, the court nonetheless concluded that there is no nondelegation problem here, because regulation relied on by the CDC still provides an “intelligible principle” for the exercise of executive discretion, as required by Supreme Court precedent. Specifically, it gives the CDC the authority to “take such measures to prevent such spread of the [communicable] diseases as he/she deems reasonably necessary.” But there can be no intelligible principle where the supposed limitation on discretion gives the executive the power to suppress virtually any activity it wants, simply by “deeming” that they are “reasonably necessary” to stop the spread of disease—an assertion that can be made at any time. The whole point of the “intelligible principle” rule is to limit the delegation of congressional power to executive discretion. That rule, therefore, cannot be used to uphold a delegation that imposes no meaningful limit on discretion of any kind.

In Brown v. Azar, the court doesn’t directly consider nondelegation at all, focusing strictly on statutory arguments of the sort summarized by co-blogger Josh Blackman here. But the judge should have considered the nondelegation issue when analyzing the plaintiffs’ statutory arguments because of the longstanding rule that statutes should be construed in a way that, if possible, avoids constitutional problems. Nondelegation is, obviously, a serious constitutional problem. The law authorizing CDC public health measures should be construed in a way that avoids potentially violating nondelegation rules, if possible.

By contrast, I have more reservations about the argument that prevailed in Terkel: that federal government did not have the power to authorize the eviction moratorium under the Commerce Clause, which gives Congress the authority to regulate “commerce with foreign nations, and among the several states.” I actually agree that the eviction moratorium exceeds congressional power under the text and original meaning of the Commerce Clause. A nationwide moratorium on evictions—which usually involve transactions within a single state—is not a regulation of interstate commerce. Rather, it restricts commercial transactions within a single state involving an asset that cannot even move across state lines.

Unfortunately, various Supreme Court precedents interpret the Commerce Clause as giving Congress the authority to regulate many in-state activities that, in the aggregate, have a “substantial effect” on interstate commerce. In cases like United States v. Lopez and Gonzales v. Raich, the Supreme Court also indicated that this category includes nearly all “economic activity.”

In Terkel, Judge Barker concludes that the eviction moratorium is not a regulation of economic activity because it only restricts evictions, but does not suspend the requirement that tenants continue to pay rent. Thus, the CDC order doesn’t regulate economic activity because  does not have “any effect on the parties’ financial relationship.”

This strikes me as unpersuasive. Preventing eviction has an obvious effect on financial obligations, because it terminates the landlord-tenant relationship, thus ending any obligation the tenant might have to continue paying rent in the future. Eviction is, therefore, economic activity in much the same way as firing an employee is. Neither changes the two parties’ obligations during the period when their commercial relationship was still in effect. The employer must still pay the employee any salary she was owed for the period before she was fired, and the tenant still owes rent for the period prior to eviction. But both nonetheless qualify as economic transactions on any plausible sense of the word.

If an eviction moratorium is not a regulation of economic activity because it doesn’t change financial obligations in the sense described by Judge Barker, the same can be said of federal laws restricting the firing of employees and the termination of various other economic relationships. I doubt the Supreme Court will be willing to go there.

That said, the concept of “economic activity,” as used by the Supreme Court, is far from a model of clarity. There may be other ways to distinguish eviction moratoria from other types of in-state transactions that the federal government regulates. Among other things, eviction moratoria regulate the use of real estate, which is a quintessentially immobile local asset, not a commodity or service that can be shipped across interstate lines. While out-of-staters can rent or buy property, they cannot move it. That makes federal land-use regulation different from federal regulation of the production of goods and services that move across state boundaries. This distinction could potentially justify giving a narrower scope to federal power over the former under the Commerce Clause, without greatly disturbing existing Supreme Court precedent.

Much more can be said about all three of the decisions on the legality of the CDC  eviction moratorium. There are also other lawsuits out there challenging the order. I addressed some of the issues involved in greater detail here and here (and also explaining why I am skeptical that the eviction moratorium is actually needed to protect needy tenants and prevent the spread of disease).

For now, I will only add that it is likely the legal battle over this issues is likely to continue. All three cases could eventually make their way to appellate courts. While Biden’s extension of the initial Trump moratorium only lasts till March 31, there is a good chance it will be extended further at that time. It is also possible that Congress will impose a statutory eviction moratorium by passing the relevant provision of the Biden Administration’s stimulus bill (which would impose a statutory moratorium until September). If that happens, it would moot out the statutory and nondelegation issues raised in Brown and Chambless. But the federalism argument addressed in Terkel would remain a live issue, as it applies even if Congress has clearly authorized the moratorium and done so in a way that avoid nondelegation problems.

NOTE: The plaintiffs in some of the lawsuits against the eviction moratorium (though not those in the three cases discussed above) are represented by the Pacific Legal Foundation, where my wife works. I myself have played a minor (unpaid) role in advising PLF on this litigation.

 

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The State of the Legal Struggle Over the CDC Eviction Moratorium

Eviction Moratorium

As co-blogger Josh Blackman notes, a federal district court ruling recently concluded that the Center for Disease Control nationwide moratorium on evictions is unconstitutional, in Terkel v. CDC (Eastern District of Texas). On the other hand, two earlier district court decisions—Chambless Enterprises v. Redfield (W.D. Louisiana), and  Brown v. Azar (N.D. Georgia)—have upheld the legality of the CDC order. Technically, these rulings addressed the original CDC moratorium enacted in September under the Trump administration, rather than its extension by Biden. But they nonetheless address essentially the same policy, because Biden’s version is simply an extension of Trump’s.

While the three cases  consider the same CDC order, they actually deal with different types of arguments against it. Brown and Chambless primarily focus on claims that the CDC exceeded its authority under the relevant federal law and that interpreting the law broadly enough to allow the eviction moratorium would violate the “nondelegation” doctrine (which limits the extent to which Congress can delegate its lawmaking authority to the executive branch). By contrast, Terkel considers the argument that the moratorium exceeds the power of the federal government under its authority to regulate interstate commerce, even as augmented by the Necessary and Proper Clause. If that argument (the only one made by the plaintiffs in Terkel) prevails, the eviction moratorium would be unconstitutional even if properly authorized by Congress.

In my view, which on this point aligns with that of most other academics, the nondelegation and statutory arguments rejected in Brown and Chambless are much stronger than the limited power theory that prevailed in Terkel. But I have to admit that, so far, the arguments I like better have not done as well as the one I am much more skeptical about. It could be just a function of the particular judges who heard the three cases. Judge J. Campbell Barker, who heard the Texas case is a conservative Trump appointee; but the same is true of Judge J.P. Boulee, who decided Brown v. Azar. So I have to admit that this might be a situation where judges’ views of which arguments are best don’t align with those of legal scholars. If so, it would be far from the first such occasion!

Nonetheless, I continue to think that the Brown and Chambless rulings were too quick to dismiss the statutory and nondelegation theories, while the limited power argument is more problematic. In my view, the judges in Brown and Chambless, fail to take sufficient account of the fact that the government’s interpretation of the relevant authorizing statute would give the CDC the power to suppress almost any human activity at any time. If the government is right to argue that the statutes and regulations in question give the CDC the power to impose a nationwide eviction moratorium, as opposed to more narrowly targeted local measures, the same logic would give it virtually unlimited authority to ban other economic and social activities. I explain the point here:

[U]nder the text of the regulation [and the authorizing statute], the CDC need not prove that the regulations in question really are “reasonably necessary” or that state restrictions really are “insufficient.” They need only assert (“deem”) that such is the case.

This broad interpretation of the regulation would give the executive the power to restrict almost any type of activity. Pretty much any economic transaction or movement of people and  goods could potentially spread disease in some way. Nor is that authority limited to particularly deadly diseases such as Covid-19. It could just as readily apply to virtually any other communicable disease, such as the flu or even the common cold.

Every year, thousands of people die because of the flu, and restrictions on mobility or on economic and social activity could  be seen as “reasonable” ways to limit its spread. 42 CFR Section 70.1 (on which the definition of disease in Section 70.2 is based) in fact defines “communicable diseases” as “illnesses due to infectious agents or their toxic products, which may be transmitted from a reservoir to a susceptible host either directly as from an infected person or animal or indirectly through the agency of an intermediate plant or animal host, vector, or the inanimate environment.” Notice that this applies to any disease spread by “infectious agents,” regardless of severity. The flu and the common cold clearly qualify!

If Trump can use this authority to impose a nationwide eviction moratorium, Joe Biden (or some other future president) could use it to impose a nationwide mask mandate, a nationwide lockdown, or just about any other restriction of any activity that could potentially reduce the spread of the flu, the common cold, or any other disease.

Such virtually limitless executive authority to impose restrictions and mandates would make a hash of the separation of powers, enabling the president to circumvent Congress’s authority on a massive scale. It also would completely undermine any semblance of “nondelegation” restrictions on grants of power to the executive.

In Chambless, the court nonetheless concluded that there is no nondelegation problem here, because regulation relied on by the CDC still provides an “intelligible principle” for the exercise of executive discretion, as required by Supreme Court precedent. Specifically, it gives the CDC the authority to “take such measures to prevent such spread of the [communicable] diseases as he/she deems reasonably necessary.” But there can be no intelligible principle where the supposed limitation on discretion gives the executive the power to suppress virtually any activity it wants, simply by “deeming” that they are “reasonably necessary” to stop the spread of disease—an assertion that can be made at any time. The whole point of the “intelligible principle” rule is to limit the delegation of congressional power to executive discretion. That rule, therefore, cannot be used to uphold a delegation that imposes no meaningful limit on discretion of any kind.

In Brown v. Azar, the court doesn’t directly consider nondelegation at all, focusing strictly on statutory arguments of the sort summarized by co-blogger Josh Blackman here. But the judge should have considered the nondelegation issue when analyzing the plaintiffs’ statutory arguments because of the longstanding rule that statutes should be construed in a way that, if possible, avoids constitutional problems. Nondelegation is, obviously, a serious constitutional problem. The law authorizing CDC public health measures should be construed in a way that avoids potentially violating nondelegation rules, if possible.

By contrast, I have more reservations about the argument that prevailed in Terkel: that federal government did not have the power to authorize the eviction moratorium under the Commerce Clause, which gives Congress the authority to regulate “commerce with foreign nations, and among the several states.” I actually agree that the eviction moratorium exceeds congressional power under the text and original meaning of the Commerce Clause. A nationwide moratorium on evictions—which usually involve transactions within a single state—is not a regulation of interstate commerce. Rather, it restricts commercial transactions within a single state involving an asset that cannot even move across state lines.

Unfortunately, various Supreme Court precedents interpret the Commerce Clause as giving Congress the authority to regulate many in-state activities that, in the aggregate, have a “substantial effect” on interstate commerce. In cases like United States v. Lopez and Gonzales v. Raich, the Supreme Court also indicated that this category includes nearly all “economic activity.”

In Terkel, Judge Barker concludes that the eviction moratorium is not a regulation of economic activity because it only restricts evictions, but does not suspend the requirement that tenants continue to pay rent. Thus, the CDC order doesn’t regulate economic activity because  does not have “any effect on the parties’ financial relationship.”

This strikes me as unpersuasive. Preventing eviction has an obvious effect on financial obligations, because it terminates the landlord-tenant relationship, thus ending any obligation the tenant might have to continue paying rent in the future. Eviction is, therefore, economic activity in much the same way as firing an employee is. Neither changes the two parties’ obligations during the period when their commercial relationship was still in effect. The employer must still pay the employee any salary she was owed for the period before she was fired, and the tenant still owes rent for the period prior to eviction. But both nonetheless qualify as economic transactions on any plausible sense of the word.

If an eviction moratorium is not a regulation of economic activity because it doesn’t change financial obligations in the sense described by Judge Barker, the same can be said of federal laws restricting the firing of employees and the termination of various other economic relationships. I doubt the Supreme Court will be willing to go there.

That said, the concept of “economic activity,” as used by the Supreme Court, is far from a model of clarity. There may be other ways to distinguish eviction moratoria from other types of in-state transactions that the federal government regulates. Among other things, eviction moratoria regulate the use of real estate, which is a quintessentially immobile local asset, not a commodity or service that can be shipped across interstate lines. While out-of-staters can rent or buy property, they cannot move it. That makes federal land-use regulation different from federal regulation of the production of goods and services that move across state boundaries. This distinction could potentially justify giving a narrower scope to federal power over the former under the Commerce Clause, without greatly disturbing existing Supreme Court precedent.

Much more can be said about all three of the decisions on the legality of the CDC  eviction moratorium. There are also other lawsuits out there challenging the order. I addressed some of the issues involved in greater detail here and here (and also explaining why I am skeptical that the eviction moratorium really does much to prevent the spread of disease).

For now, I will only add that it is likely the legal battle over this issues is likely to continue. All three cases could eventually make their way to appellate courts. While Biden’s extension of the initial Trump moratorium only lasts till March 31, there is a good chance it will be extended further at that time. It is also possible that Congress will impose a statutory eviction moratorium by passing the relevant provision of the Biden Administration’s stimulus bill (which would impose a statutory moratorium until September). If that happens, it would moot out the statutory and nondelegation issues raised in Brown and Chambless. But the federalism argument addressed in Terkel would remain a live issue, as it applies even if Congress has clearly authorized the moratorium and done so in a way that avoid nondelegation problems.

NOTE: The plaintiffs in some of the lawsuits against the eviction moratorium (though not those in the three cases discussed above) are represented by the Pacific Legal Foundation, where my wife works. I myself have played a minor (unpaid) role in advising PLF on this litigation.

 

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“Early Spring, Winter Is Over?” – New Weather Models Suggest Warmer Weather Nears 

“Early Spring, Winter Is Over?” – New Weather Models Suggest Warmer Weather Nears 

After a brutal February plunged much of the US into a deep-freeze with multiple winter storms due to the split in the polar vortex (something we warned about in early January), one group of meteorologists are suggesting winter could be over for some areas as spring is ahead. 

“So early spring, winter is over? There is literally no winter in those maps – we think winter cold is wrapped up overall,” said BAMWX’s Kirk Heinz

Heinz, the chief meteorologist at the weather service firm, said, “with the remnants of the polar vortex forecast to move north of Alaska, the MJO focused in the Maritime Continent ahead and the atmospheric state quite La Niña ahead…warmth is expected to expand widespread across the central and easter US in the exact areas that have run over 10 degrees below normal on average most of February to date.” 

BAMWX’s weather model titled “Week 2 Temperature Departures & Week 2 % Of Normal Precipitation” shows between Mar. 5 to Mar. 11 that temperatures across West Central, Southwest, East Central, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast will be well above average — drier conditions are expected for much of the country through the period. 

The next weather model titled “Week 3/4 Temperature Outlook & Week 3/4 Precipitation Outlook” shows between Mar.12 to Mar. 25 above-average temperatures will be seen across the country — drier conditions in the Rockies but wetter in the Southwest. 

BAMWX suggests an “early start to the planting year” is possible. 

We told readers last Monday to expect warmer weather between Feb. 23 to Mar. 10, though with the addition of BAMWX’s data, perhaps warmer weather for the country could persist through the entire month of March. As we are all aware, weather modeling is difficult and subjected to change.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/27/2021 – 13:05

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Powell’s Plan Has A Blind Spot And It Means Market Violence

Powell’s Plan Has A Blind Spot And It Means Market Violence

Authored by Oliver Renick via LinkedIn,

There is a logical blind spot in the Fed’s framework that will create forced selling of bonds even without changes to the Fed’s balance sheet or stated hiking plans. It stems from the notion that without a defined counteracting force to inflation, the risk/reward of holding bonds when growth is trending as it is now is so skewed towards selling that it’s likely to create severe spikes in yields until some equilibrium is reached, likely through yield-curve control.

Here’s what I see.

The central bank has told us they’re not going to fight inflation until it runs at their target for some undefined period of time. So policymakers have unprecedented free reign to throw everything they can at the economy to get it going. That means that if there is some theoretical way to generate upward price pressure greater than the deflationary forces of demographics and technology, we are going to find it. You don’t have to have some strong view on the economy to see this. It’s a Murphy’s Law-type principle that over a long enough time horizon, if it’s possible, it will happen. As Ian Malcolm says in Jurassic Park, life will find a way. So will inflation. Whether it’s this year, next, in 5 or 100, the Fed has promised it won’t get in the way until we find it. So we can be absolutely certain we will find it.

And there’s the glitch. Markets are not supposed to have absolute certainty.

By telegraphing its plan to let inflation run past the 2% target, the Fed has given investors exploitable asymmetric knowledge by reducing the number of actions it can possibly take by eliminating the possibility of a hike until sustained inflation. By turning a defined barrier into a flexible one, the economy and the market will naturally discover the limit of that flexibility.

An analogy: if a kid knows his parent will ground him if he curses more than five times a day, he’ll stop cursing at four. But if they say they’ll ground him after a certain number of curse words between five and ten, and the kid likes to curse, he’s naturally going to figure out where the grounding threshold is, i.e., he’ll go until he gets slapped. Bonds will not stop selling until they find out where they make daddy Powell uncomfortable.

Perhaps more attuned to markets, think about it through poker. If I know the most important player at the table doesn’t play a certain hand, I’m going to make above my expected value because I have information I’m not supposed to. It changes the game in a way that I can manipulate. The most important player in the bond market is the Fed, and because investors know Powell’s hands are tied, they can exploit this knowledge by selling their bonds in advance of the inflation that we can assume to be inevitable. Why buy a bond now if I know it’s going to be cheaper later on? Maybe if I like the income, but, 1.5% ain’t too hot. So we’re unlikely to reach a natural equilibrium anytime soon.

The mistake I see investors making right now is connecting the long bond with the Fed’s commitment to low rates. The most common thing I hear from guests is “yields won’t rise too much because Powell isn’t hiking.” Yet long-term yields literally bottomed this summer as Powell unveiled his plan! And now they’re spiking without any hot inflation prints — just expectations and improving economic data. It’s quite clear that the market will determine rates outside of the Fed’s overnight purview.

I joked today that the only thing that may calm the stock market’s response to rates is if Jay Powell talks about hiking. It’s actually not even that crazy. The ascent in yields will be relentless under average inflation targeting because it removes the counteracting force (hikes) that would otherwise slow the economy. So when the time comes and the Fed talks hikes, yields will finally slow their ascent as investors process the notion of hikes slowing down the economy.

If it sounds backwards, it’s because it is. It’s been that way since the Fed caved to investors and reversed course in December 2018, not because of any issues with the economy (loosest financial conditions for rate cuts ever in 2019), but because markets and the President pressured Powell to do so. That skewed the risk/reward too far in favor of buying bonds for investors not to do so. If the economy is bad, the Fed cuts; if economy is good, Fed cuts anyway. We then had a year-long period of falling ten-year yields despite rising inflation, and it’s been upside down ever since. There’s no reason not to expect the same speed to the downside as we got on the upside.

I’m not saying the Fed is doing a poor job today; it’s clear we needed to boost our economy and not fretting over inflation seems like an OK approach in this snapshot of time. But the price investors pay will be unprecedented bond volatility, and that’ll likely hurt the stock market by transition. There is no magic wand of words Jay Powell can use to stop bonds from trading with inflationary prospects, in fact it seems like the more dovish he gets, the harder bonds drop (which makes total sense according to my thesis). If he wants to stop yields from spiking in a way that disrupts the market, it’s going to take another wall of money and he’s going to have to buy the bonds himself. Maybe Powell knows this and it’s not a blind spot. Maybe he plans on yield-curve control after all.

Bottom line: policymakers are playing with matches and Thursday is an example of what happens when investors smell smoke. Yes, growth and recovery are driving the direction of yields, but the severity of the moves will in part be due to inefficient market dynamics fostered by the Fed since 2018.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/27/2021 – 12:40

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