Month: April 2021

Managing Supply Chain Political Blacklist Risk?

Recent events made me wonder: What good things have been written about how people and organizations—especially ideologically minded organizations—can protect against their suppliers’ blacklisting them because of what they say, or because of what they allow others to say?

The Amazon Web Services shutdown of Parler (for insufficiently policing user posts) is the most obvious recent example; while that was temporary, perhaps it wouldn’t have been if Parler didn’t have deep-pocketed investors. Discord has reportedly shown a similar willingness to cut off organizations for “allowing hate speech.” Visa and Mastercard have apparently at times blocked payments to groups they view as “hate groups” (and had earlier blocked payments to Wikileaks).

Of course, if a supplier is just one of many in a competitive market, blacklisted users can easily switch to a competitor. But sometimes there might be only a few such suppliers in a field, and they might follow parallel ideological paths, whether because they share the same politics or just because they are subject to the same political pressures. (The clearest example of a “blacklist” is if indeed many competitors are going along with each other, formally or informally, so that if a company is dropped by one supplier, other suppliers are likely to follow suit.) Or sometimes transitioning from one supplier to another might be a massive and time-consuming undertaking.

Somewhere in pretty much any organization’s supply chain, I suspect, are companies on which the organization relies, and which (1) can hurt it badly if they cut it off, or (2) can pressure it to change its content by threatening to cut it off. And while many of us may assume that of course these companies won’t go after us, how can we be so sure? We’ve seen how just in the last few years things that were formerly seen as at most controversial have become grounds for firing or boycotts or deplatforming.

If five years ago, someone had said that Parler would be deplatformed by Amazon Web Services for following a say-what-you-like policy of the sort that had been pretty common online until recently, I think many of us would have been surprised. If people had said that some Dr. Seuss books would be pushed out of print for supposedly racist content, I think we’d have been surprised, too. If people had said that Amazon would stop selling books that take one side of the debate about gender identity (the formerly utterly orthodox side), I think we’d likewise have been surprised. And while some such examples don’t involve suppliers, their point is that what content is beyond the pale has been changing quickly. What will be the basis for blacklisting five years from now?

Now these are private companies, and they generally have the legal right to terminate relations with people who say things (or who allow others to say things) that the companies dislike. Perhaps some such decisions by those companies are even on balance good; I’m not focusing on that now.

Rather, my question is this: Are there some thought-through, detailed analyses of how organizations can manage the risk that their suppliers (rightly or wrongly) will turn on them, whether for their views on race or affirmative action or sexual orientation or gender identity or illegal immigration or guns or climate change or vaccination or masks or whatever else?

For instance, one obvious possible answer is to insist on binding long-term contracts without any content limitations (except perhaps for outright illegal content), terminable by the supplier only for specific reasons, such as nonpayment. The University of California Academic Freedom Committee, for instance, has asked the UC administration to negotiate a contract with Zoom that omits Zoom’s standard content limitations (though there doesn’t seem to be a plan to insist on a binding long-term commitment). Are there suppliers of various services (hosting, payment, communications, order fulfillment, etc.) who are known for offering such binding and unrestrictive contracts, while of course still providing high-quality, affordable services?

Or in fields where binding contracts aren’t viable, are there suppliers that are known for standing by their customers even in the face of public pressure? If in some relationships, there has to be some mechanism for termination for non-content-based business reasons, are there arbitral bodies that can quickly and reliably (without ideological spin of their own) resolve disputes about whether the termination was indeed justified?

Are there well-worked-out emergency transition mechanisms, for instance if one has to go without a long-term contract and an entity like Amazon Web Services or Microsoft or whoever else cuts one off? (Obviously, the transition mechanisms would differ depending on the kind of product that’s being supplied.)

One seeming advantage of relying on common carriers, such as phone companies or delivery companies (such as UPS or FedEx) is that their common carrier status generally bars them from blocking customers based on the customers’ ideology (or based on many other reasons). Has that proved reliable, or are the customers’ legal protections more limited than they at first appear?

Are there particular other supplier sectors that so far have taken a hands-off approach to content (at least content that isn’t illegal) but that seem likely to shift to more policing of what their users (or their users’ users) say? For instance, should be worried about Google or Microsoft cutting off e-mail services for entities that they come to view as “extremists” or “hateful”?

I’m sure that savvy techies have already thought through all this; I’m not at all claiming these questions are new. But I suspect that some organizations haven’t focused on this enough, at least yet. I’d love to know whether there are some solid, practical, helpful instructions out there that people can use.

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Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Would Overturn ‘Right-To-Work’ Laws in 27 States


sipaphotosnine901457

Buried inside more than $2 trillion in proposed spending on everything from highways to child care, President Joe Biden’s “American Jobs Plan” would also force non-union workers to pay union dues even in states that have explicitly said that’s not mandatory.

Biden glossed over that detail in Wednesday’s speech outlining the particulars of his “American Jobs Plan.” He made just a single reference to the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, which passed the House earlier this month, calling it a bill that would “help workers organize.”

In reality, the PRO Act strengthens unions by telling workers to pay up. Among other things, the bill would amend parts of the National Labor Relations Act to allow the federal government to stomp out the so-called “right-to-work” laws that forbid unions from forcing non-members to pay a share of union dues. If passed, the PRO Act would roll back the rights of individual workers, who would no longer get to choose whether they want to financially support a union.

Passage of the PRO Act is obviously a major political priority for labor unions—Richard Trumka, president of the AFL-CIO, recently described it as a “game-changer” in an interview with NPR—because it wold provide a new stream of revenue even as the overall number of unionized workers continues to decline.

But it is a strange way to pursue Biden’s ultimate goal improving America’s infrastructure as a form of economic stimulus.

“We view this measure as a significant threat to the viability of the commercial construction industry,” warns Stephen Sandherr, CEO of the Associated General Contractors of America, an industry group. He predicts that passage of the PRO Act would usher in more labor unrest, and observes that it is difficult to complete large-scale infrastructure projects when “work is idled, workers are unpaid, and projects go uncompleted.”

It’s also a move that seems to misread obvious economic signals. Not only has the number of states with right-to-work laws been growing, but those states have seen manufacturing employment grow more than twice as fast since 2010 when compared to states without right-to-work laws. If Biden is seeking an economic boost for the country, he’d push to let all workers enjoy the freedom to choose whether to support a union or keep more of their paychecks.

Beyond the right-to-work provision, the PRO Act is a grab bag of policies that would help tip the scales towards unions. It would force employers to turn over employees’ private information—including cellphone numbers, email addresses, and work schedules—to union organizers. It would accelerate the National Labor Relation Board’s official timetable for union organizing elections in non-union workplaces. And it would codify so-called “card check” elections, removing the protection of the secret ballot when a workplace votes to unionize.

The White House says Biden’s “American Jobs Plan” will give workers “a free and fair choice to join a union.” But in calling for the passage of the PRO Act, Biden is actually taking that choice away from many workers who currently enjoy it—and transfer money directly from workers’ paychecks to labor unions’ bottom lines.

“The PRO Act does strengthen unions, but it does so mainly by giving unions more power to force recalcitrant workers to fall in line,” says Sean Higgins, a research fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a free market think tank. “The Biden administration wants to strip workers of their right for their own good.”

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Managing Supply Chain Political Blacklist Risk?

Recent events made me wonder: What good things have been written about how people and organizations—especially ideologically minded organizations—can protect against their suppliers’ blacklisting them because of what they say, or because of what they allow others to say?

The Amazon Web Services shutdown of Parler (for insufficiently policing user posts) is the most obvious recent example; while that was temporary, perhaps it wouldn’t have been if Parler didn’t have deep-pocketed investors. Discord has reportedly shown a similar willingness to cut off organizations for “allowing hate speech.” Visa and Mastercard have apparently at times blocked payments to groups they view as “hate groups” (and had earlier blocked payments to Wikileaks).

Of course, if a supplier is just one of many in a competitive market, blacklisted users can easily switch to a competitor. But sometimes there might be only a few such suppliers in a field, and they might follow parallel ideological paths, whether because they share the same politics or just because they are subject to the same political pressures. (The clearest example of a “blacklist” is if indeed many competitors are going along with each other, formally or informally, so that if a company is dropped by one supplier, other suppliers are likely to follow suit.) Or sometimes transitioning from one supplier to another might be a massive and time-consuming undertaking.

Somewhere in pretty much any organization’s supply chain, I suspect, are companies on which the organization relies, and which (1) can hurt it badly if they cut it off, or (2) can pressure it to change its content by threatening to cut it off. And while many of us may assume that of course these companies won’t go after us, how can we be so sure? We’ve seen how just in the last few years things that were formerly seen as at most controversial have become grounds for firing or boycotts or deplatforming.

If five years ago, someone had said that Parler would be deplatformed by Amazon Web Services for following a say-what-you-like policy of the sort that had been pretty common online until recently, I think many of us would have been surprised. If people had said that some Dr. Seuss books would be pushed out of print for supposedly racist content, I think we’d have been surprised, too. If people had said that Amazon would stop selling books that take one side of the debate about gender identity (the formerly utterly orthodox side), I think we’d likewise have been surprised. And while some such examples don’t involve suppliers, their point is that what content is beyond the pale has been changing quickly. What will be the basis for blacklisting five years from now?

Now these are private companies, and they generally have the legal right to terminate relations with people who say things (or who allow others to say things) that the companies dislike. Perhaps some such decisions by those companies are even on balance good; I’m not focusing on that now.

Rather, my question is this: Are there some thought-through, detailed analyses of how organizations can manage the risk that their suppliers (rightly or wrongly) will turn on them, whether for their views on race or affirmative action or sexual orientation or gender identity or illegal immigration or guns or climate change or vaccination or masks or whatever else?

For instance, one obvious possible answer is to insist on binding long-term contracts without any content limitations (except perhaps for outright illegal content), terminable by the supplier only for specific reasons, such as nonpayment. The University of California Academic Freedom Committee, for instance, has asked the UC administration to negotiate a contract with Zoom that omits Zoom’s standard content limitations (though there doesn’t seem to be a plan to insist on a binding long-term commitment). Are there suppliers of various services (hosting, payment, communications, order fulfillment, etc.) who are known for offering such binding and unrestrictive contracts, while of course still providing high-quality, affordable services?

Or in fields where binding contracts aren’t viable, are there suppliers that are known for standing by their customers even in the face of public pressure? If in some relationships, there has to be some mechanism for termination for non-content-based business reasons, are there arbitral bodies that can quickly and reliably (without ideological spin of their own) resolve disputes about whether the termination was indeed justified?

Are there well-worked-out emergency transition mechanisms, for instance if one has to go without a long-term contract and an entity like Amazon Web Services or Microsoft or whoever else cuts one off? (Obviously, the transition mechanisms would differ depending on the kind of product that’s being supplied.)

One seeming advantage of relying on common carriers, such as phone companies or delivery companies (such as UPS or FedEx) is that their common carrier status generally bars them from blocking customers based on the customers’ ideology (or based on many other reasons). Has that proved reliable, or are the customers’ legal protections more limited than they at first appear?

Are there particular other supplier sectors that so far have taken a hands-off approach to content (at least content that isn’t illegal) but that seem likely to shift to more policing of what their users (or their users’ users) say? For instance, should be worried about Google or Microsoft cutting off e-mail services for entities that they come to view as “extremists” or “hateful”?

I’m sure that savvy techies have already thought through all this; I’m not at all claiming these questions are new. But I suspect that some organizations haven’t focused on this enough, at least yet. I’d love to know whether there are some solid, practical, helpful instructions out there that people can use.

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What To Expect From Today’s OPEC+ Meeting: Another Saudi Surprise?

What To Expect From Today’s OPEC+ Meeting: Another Saudi Surprise?

After Wednesday’s JMMC meeting ended without reaching a recommendation (as is customary and expected), the key decision-making OPEC+ meeting – where ministers will hammer out May’s output quotas – begins at 1pm London Time. As Newsquawk notes, market expectations are skewed towards an extension of current cuts, but a clear stance from Saudi – who have a tendency to surprise in recent months – remains to be seen, namely on the decision regarding the extra 1MM barrels the Kingdom has kept offline since the start of the year.

Commenting on today’s key event, Bloomberg’s Jake Lloyd-Smith reminds us that Saudi Arabia has sprung some big surprises in the oil market already this year, and may do so again today as OPEC+ grapples with a thorny decision on supply. That could make for a volatile session before the long weekend, and already has with oil whipsawing from gains to losses in jittery trading.

As such, while the consensus view is the grouping will stick with deep output curbs to safeguard crude’s recovery, there’s an outside chance of alternative outcomes. These span the twin extremes, from releasing barrels to tightening further.

At issue is the varied recovery across key regions. For every rosy demand metric from the U.S. or China, there’s a poor one from Europe as lockdowns make a comeback. In addition, Riyadh faces a headache from rival Iran, which has been pushing clandestine barrels into China despite U.S. sanctions. This year, Riyadh has cultivated a reputation for surprises, from a unilateral output cut in January to presiding over the OPEC+ decision in March to keep curbs when the market expected an easing. While today’s decision may follow the script for a rollover, traders will be on alert for different story lines.

A quick recap of notable highlights into the meeting, courtesy of Newsquawk:

  • Recent Rhetoric: As a reminder, the prior meeting saw an unexpected rollover of February/March output quotas (Russia and Kazakhstan were allowed incremental increases for domestic demand), with the most notable aspect being Saudi’s surprise extension of its unilateral cut. The most recent source reports suggested that expectations are growing over another rollover of current curbs into May. The reason for the cautious approach reportedly includes fresh lockdowns around the world alongside rising Iranian oil exports.
  • Saudi Arabia: Some sources suggested that Saudi Arabia is reportedly ready to support an OPEC+ oil cut extension into May and June, while it is also ready to extend its voluntary cut as it sees global demand as not yet strong enough to bring back additional supply. However, when a Saudi source was asked about these reports, the response was “we haven’t even started consultations yet”, according to Energy Intel.
  • Russia: Moscow is said to have voiced support for a rollover of the April deal (i.e. with a small increase for itself) into May, according to a source. Russian Deputy PM Novak in early March highlighted concern over the non-OPEC competition.

New Developments

  • COVID: Since the last meeting, the COVID situation in the Euro Zone has continued to deteriorate with further lockdown measures imposed across the region. OPEC, alongside other energy agencies, has previously voiced concern over the fragility of OECD demand. “While some of the improving momentum is assumed to carry over into 2021, another round of lockdowns and social distancing measures in some key OECD economies is likely to dampen 1Q21 momentum.”, said OPEC in its March MOMR – subsequently France, Germany and the Netherlands announced tighter COVID restrictions. It is also worth noting that OPEC’s base case is that COVID-19 will largely be contained at the beginning of H2 2021, with most major economies vaccinated by then, albeit the inoculation drive in the Euro Zone has been slower than some had hoped.
  • Iran: Iran’s oil activities continue to pose a tail risk for OPEC as the country is currently exempt from production quotas amid US sanctions. Iran made a notable strategic shift for its oil exports as it is now attempting to funnel crude via the Gulf of Oman rather than the Persian Gulf, with the former connected to a pipeline capable of delivering 1mln BPD of crude. Furthermore, Tehran signed a 25yr trade deal with Beijing in a pact that could result in increased oil flows from Iran to China. Back to US sanctions, recent reports via Politico suggested that Washington is said to be attempting to break the deadlock with Iran via a new proposal which would include some sanctions relief for Tehran in return for half of some nuclear activities. The source stressed that details are still being worked out.
  • Geopolitics: Tensions in the Middle East persists. Saudi oil facilities remain under threat of attack from Iranian-backed Houthis and the Kingdom has also started naval exercises to defend its facilities. Recent reports have also suggested that Saudi had requested more help from the US to defend its oil infrastructure, underscoring the Kingdom’s concerns. Saudi last week announced a new peace plan to end the Yemeni war, however, Houthis dismissed the proposals as “nothing new”.
  • NOPEC: Last week, US Senator Grassley (R-Iowa) reintroduced the bipartisan “No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels” Act (NOPEC), which made its debut during former President Trump’s tenure and permits the US government to take action against “price-fixing by OPEC”. US Senators suggest OPEC’s coordinated manipulation drives up costs for Americans throughout the economic fallout of the pandemic. “NOPEC would explicitly authorize the Justice Department to bring lawsuits against oil cartel members for antitrust violations”. Although this is unlikely to sway producers at the upcoming meeting, it is one to keep on the radar for influence on future decisions.
  • Suez Canal: The Ever Given container ship has now been re-floated after blocking the global trade choke point in Egypt for almost a week. The Suez Canal provides the shortest link between Europe and Asia and sees about 12% of global trade move through it. Authorities have stated the backlog of ships will take around three-to-four days from Monday to clear. The temporary fallout from the blockade is unlikely to be much of an influence on OPEC’s decision as COVID remains their implied mandate.

HOUSE VIEWS:

Citi has called on OPEC+ to again extend the current cuts or even cut deeper to keep a floor under prices. Although, the latter would be easier said than done as OPEC+ unanimity is needed to roll out policy. Members are tempted to raise output amid the high-price environment, whilst some also recently voiced concern over market share loss to the US.

Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to keep production for May unchanged at the upcoming meeting. The bank views the recent fall in oil prices as overshooting the shifts in oil fundamentals. “In particular, we expect a slower ramp-up in OPEC+ production this spring to help offset both slower EM and EU demand recovery and higher Iranian exports, with global demand still set to increase sharply through the summer.”, the bank says.

ING has also aligned itself with market expectations; “The weakness in the physical and paper market since the OPEC+ meeting earlier in the month could push the group to roll over the current cuts when it meets next on 1 April.” The bank suggests that if we do see any easing in cuts, it is likely to be very modest, but OPEC+ would want to avoid a sell-off in prices.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/01/2021 – 08:07

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S&P Futures Hit All Time High To Start The New Quarter

S&P Futures Hit All Time High To Start The New Quarter

Now that the quarter-end rebalance malarkey is behind us, it’s full steam ahead into the new quarter and S&P futures hit a new all time high overnight rising as high as 3,984 before stabilizing up 0.3%, breaching Wednesday’s best levels as signs of faster job creation in the US fueled optimism about the global recovery (although all that will change tomorrow if the NFP whisper of 1.8MM jobs is remotely accurate). Oil climbed above $60 per barrel before a meeting of OPEC+ on extending production cuts.

At 7:30 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 12 points, or 0.04%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 12 points, or 0.30%. Nasdaq futures rose as much as 1.1%, as “high flying” FAAMG stocks added between 0.6% and 1.1% after underperforming last month on concerns over elevated valuations. Some notable premarket movers:

  • Micron rose 4.3% after the chipmaker forecast fiscal third-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates due to higher demand for memory chips, thanks to 5G smartphones and artificial intelligence software.
  • Western Digital Corp. gained 1.1% after a report it and Micron were exploring a potential deal for Japan’s Kioxia Holdings Corp.
  • US-listed shares of rival Taiwan Semiconductor also added 2.3% on its plan to invest $100 billion over the next three years to meet the rising chip demand.
  • Uber Technologies Inc rose nearly 2% after Jefferies began coverage on the ride-hailing company’s shares with “buy” and said the company could be profitable soon.
  • Johnson & Johnson slipped 1.1% premarket after the drugmaker said it had found a problem with a batch of the drug substance for its COVID-19 vaccine being produced by Emergent Biosolutions.
  • Microsoft Corp. climbed 1.2% in premarket as the company’s multibillion-dollar deal to build customized versions of its HoloLens goggles for the U.S. Army moved forward.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 hit a new intraday high, but stopped just shy of touching 4,000 points for the first time after President Joe Biden’s unveiled a $2.25 trillion plan to rebuild the world’s largest economy. Biden’s “American Jobs Plan” would put corporate America on the hook for the tab as the government creates millions of jobs building infrastructure, such as roads, tackles climate change and boosts human services like care for the elderly.

“There is still some room for recovery in stocks that will benefit from the economic recovery and the reopening trade,” Ania Aldrich, investment principal at Cambiar Investors LLC, said on Bloomberg TV. “There’s still a lot of growth that has to come and that’s not necessarily reflected in earnings yet.”

With the Archegos fiasco behind us, investors remain focused on inflation risk as central banks reassert their commitment to low interest rates. Traders for now are looking past worsening virus trends, such as lockdowns in France and Canada’s Ontario province.

European equities also traded near session highs, with the Euro Stoxx 600 rising 0.4%, and although it traded higher earlier in the session,  it was headed for the longest streak of weekly gains this year; the  FTSE outperformed at the margin. Real estate, tech and retailers lead gains; autos are the sole sector in the red.  European airline stocks rose (IAG +4.3%, TUI +3.5%, Ryanair +2.6%, Lufthansa +2.5%), lifting the Stoxx 600 travel and leisure subgroup higher, amid positive newsflow around prospects for a travel recovery this year. Goodbody analysts note an interview with Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary on Good Morning Britain on Wednesday, with O’Leary predicting restrictions being removed on flights to Spain, Portugal and Greece this year given the rising vaccination rates. Countries such as Malta, Turkey and Thailand are keen to welcome British tourists, analysts including Mark Simpson write in a note Thursday.

On the Stoxx 600, 447 members were up, 103 down and 50 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Prosus shares jump as much as 5.8% after Tencent closed higher. Additionally, the Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index gains as much as 1.7% after chip stocks rallied, boosted by Micron’s bullish forecast and by TSMC’s spending plans.
  • Quilter shares rise as much as 4.4% after the U.K. wealth manager sold its international unit to Utmost for GBP483m. RBC said the deal price is “fair,” yet also at a discount to the rest of the group.
  • Delivery Hero shares advance as much as 4.9% as stocks that benefited from the pandemic rose, with makers of home- office equipment, food-delivery firms and e-commerce stocks gaining as France and Italy prepare to extend curbs to contain the virus.
  • Vinci shares jump as much as 3.2% after signing agreement to buy ACS’s energy business for about EU4.9 billion in cash, according to statement. The acquisition will be financed through Vinci’s available cash and credit lines.
  • Atos shares plunge as much as 22%, the biggest one-day drop since Oct. 2018, after the IT services firm said

Earlier in the session, an index of Asia-Pacific shares rose for the first time in three days, with Hong Kong leading gains, after data signaled a pick-up in regional manufacturing. The emerging-market equity benchmark rebounded from Wednesday’s losses. Asian stocks climbed after Joe Biden announced a $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan and amid several big news items in the semiconductor industry. Tech stocks were the biggest boost to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index as chip giant TSMC announced plans to spend $100 billion over the next three years to expand capacity. Another lift came from a Dow Jones report that Micron and Western Digital are each exploring potential deals for Kioxia that could value the Japanese memory maker at around $30 billion. Japanese shares gained after the Tankan survey showed the nation’s large manufacturers have turned optimistic for the first time since the fall of 2019. South Korean stocks climbed following a report that the nation’s exports rose the most in more than two years on strong global demand. Hong Kong stocks advanced even as trading in more than 50 companies was halted as a number of firms failed to report earnings in time. Vietnam’s benchmark notched the region’s biggest advance Thursday, hitting a record high. The Philippine market was closed for a holiday, and a number of markets will be shut on Friday

The closely watching Chinese market – where fears of policy tightening has kept a lid on stock gains – advanced on Thursday, starting the month in the green after posting the first quarterly slump in a year. The CSI 300 Index closed 1.2% higher, the most this week, with consumer discretionary and health care firms leading gains. The gauge’s 10-day historical volatility fell to the lowest in six weeks, which coincides with the starting point for the recent selloff. Various benchmarks on the mainland also advanced, though moves remained largely range bound. Turnover in Shanghai and Shenzhen dropped to nearly 628 billion yuan, the lowest in five months. Meanwhile, trading in more than 50 Hong Kong-listed companies was suspended after a number of firms failed to report earnings ahead of the March 31 deadline. The Hang Seng Index was up 1.5% as of 3:09 p.m. local time. The Shanghai Composite advanced 0.7% while the tech-heavy ChiNext rose 2.1%

Back in the US and its holiday-shortened week, Bloomberg notes that traders were jockeying for position before the Easter weekend – US stock markets are closed on Good Friday – after ADP’s March data showed U.S. private employers hired the most workers in six months, leaving a risk that tomorrow’s NFP print will be a blowout number that could spike reflation fears again. Biden’s ambitious plan to rebuild U.S. infrastructure has added to the growth outlook, even though Republican opposition to the plan raises questions about how much can actually be delivered.

In rates, Treasuries were mixed with the curve flatter as long end holds most of its Asia-session gains, which were led by a broader advance in regional debt markets. 10Y bonds ground higher with longer-dated Treasury yields falling as investors weighed the prospects of President Joe Biden winning approval for his $2.25 trillion stimulus plan. Gilts led a modest bull flattening move, richening ~3.5bps at the long end. Peripheral spreads tighten to core slightly.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gave up an Asia-session gain and the dollar traded unchanged versus G10 peers, with most moves contained in tight ranges; the euro and Scandinavian currencies erased Asia-session losses in early European hours. AUD was the worst performer in G-10, extending Asia’s losses in early London trade before finding support near 0.7532. EUR/USD and cable fade a small pop higher to trade flat. The Turkish lira jumped for a second day, paring some of its world-leading losses since a shuffle in the central bank’s leadership. In China, the yuan slumped to a four-month low after a gauge of manufacturing activity in March fell.

In commodities, crude futures pared earlier gains in London and New York ahead of the OPEC+ meeting set to begin shortly. Brent was up just 0.1% having earlier climbed 2.4%, while WTI traded up 0.2% after earlier climbing as much as 2.5%. Spot gold drifted through Wednesday’s best levels trading near $1,715/oz. Most base metals are on the back foot: LME zinc and copper underperform, aluminum holds in the green

Official data is likely to show that the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits slipped last week. It comes ahead of the closely-watched monthly jobs report on Friday that could show U.S. economy added 647,000 jobs last month after February’s 379,000 rise.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,981.00
  • SXXP Index up 0.5% to 431.89
  • German 10Y yield little changed at -0.30%
  • Euro little changed at $1.1741
  • MXAP up 0.9% to 205.34
  • MXAPJ up 1.2% to 686.01
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 29,388.87
  • Topix up 0.2% to 1,957.64
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.0% to 28,938.74
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,466.33
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 49,872.78
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 6,828.69
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 3,087.40
  • Brent futures up 1.7% to $63.84/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,719.06
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.15

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Chinese sovereign debt is due to face a number of challenges in the second quarter. On top of a longer phase-in period for FTSE Russell’s World Government Bond Index, a surge in supply of local government securities and the narrowing yield premium over U.S. Treasuries are also threatening to reduce China’s appeal
  • The Scottish government is exploring raising funds on capital markets for the first time, ahead of elections that could trigger a renewed standoff with the U.K. over independence
  • The U.K.’s efforts to disentangle itself from sterling Libor by year-end just went up a gear. Starting Thursday, firms should stop issuing new loans, bonds and securitizations tied to the discredited benchmark, according to the Bank of England. It’s ramped up the pressure in recent days, warning bankers that continued use is a risk for business and could cost them their bonuses
  • The ECB will still have more work to do to boost inflation after the pandemic as increased price pressures this year will not be sustained, chief economist Philip Lane wrote in a blog post
  • A bonanza of European debt sales so far this year may be as good as it gets for the market as recovery from the pandemic starts to put the brakes on issuance

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded positively as participants reflected on the busy slate of data releases and US President Biden’s announcement of his two-part spending proposal consisting of the American Jobs Plan and American Family Plan whereby he only provided details of the former which will modernize, repair and upgrade the transportation network, boost the US edge on chips and which will create millions of jobs. Furthermore, President Biden stated that they will make sure to buy American with contracts only to be awarded to US firms and that the capital investment is to be around USD 2tln with spending spread over 8 years, while he also suggested increasing the corporate tax rate to 28% and that they will dramatically raise IRS tax compliance. ASX 200 (+0.6%) was kept afloat with gold miners underpinned after the recent rebound in the precious metal and with tech inspired by outperformance of the sector stateside, although financials were indecisive with CBA and Macquarie pressured from disciplinary actions by regulatory agencies and AMP was boosted after it named ANZ Bank’s Deputy CEO as its next chief. Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) and KOSPI (+0.9%) benefitted from encouraging data including a strong BoJ Tankan report which showed large manufacturers sentiment index at its highest since September 2019 and large non-manufacturers sentiment at its best levels in a year, while South Korea cheered a continued surge in exports. Hang Seng (+2.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) conformed to the upbeat mood following reports that China’s cabinet is to further cut taxes for smaller companies and after China approved the long-planned mega-merger between state-owned SinoChem and ChemChina, although gains were capped following a miss on Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower after the fluctuations in USTs and the BoJ announcement of its purchase intentions for April in which it upped the amount but lowered the frequency which would effectively result to a decline of total purchases from March, although improved results from the 10yr JGB auction helped pare some of the losses.

Top Asian News

  • Masayoshi Son’s ‘Money Guy’ Greensill Went From Hero to Zero
  • Vietnam Stocks Shoot Past Toughest Key Level to Hit Record High
  • Mizuho May Have $90 Million Exposure to Archegos, Nikkei Reports
  • Barclays Plans to Hire Several Private Bankers in Singapore

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.2%) have seen a steady grind higher since the open as markets head towards the end of the holiday-shortened week. In terms of broader macro impulses, a bulk of the news cycle has centred around President Biden’s two-part spending proposal, consisting of the American Jobs Plan and American Family Plan. That said, little follow-through has been observed in Europe as many of the specifics of the release were announced during yesterday’s session. Closer to home, the narrative is somewhat less upbeat after French President Macron announced new measures, including a national lockdown, which will take place from Saturday and last for at least one month. Nonetheless, the CAC 40 (+0.3%) has still managed to eke out mild gains throughout trade, in-fitting with broader sentiment in the region. From a sectoral standpoint, they are broadly firmer with Technology names leading the charge higher. This can also be observed in the US with the e-mini Nasdaq outperforming US peers with gains of 0.9% as the US 10yr yield continues to retreat. Elsewhere, outperformers include Financial Services, Basic Resources and Retail with the latter aided by gains in Next (+2.3%) post-FY earnings. To the downside, Autos is the only sector in the red with Daimler (-2.1%) and Volkswagen (-1.3%) at the bottom of the DAX with market participants still bemused over the latter’s Voltswagen “April fools joke”. Atos (-14.2%) sit firmly at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after announcing that auditors found issues that prompted accounting errors at two of its US subsidiaries.

Top European News

  • U.K. Manufacturing Growth Reaches Decade High as Lockdown Eases
  • Atos Shares Drop the Most in Over Two Years on Accounting Errors
  • Commerzbank Loses Three More Board Members as Upheaval Deepens
  • Vinci Seals $5.8 Billion Deal to Bolster Renewable Construction

In FX, the Aussie is still underperforming, but some way off overnight lows vs the Greenback within a 0.7601-0.7532 range in wake of trade data revealing a 1% fall in exports due mainly to iron ore, though the partial recovery to 0.7550+ is mainly down to another pull-back in its US counterpart rather than anything else. However, retail sales were not quite as weak as forecast and some are touting a hawkish shift from the RBA next week given tangible evidence of a rapid recovery in the domestic economy via the labour market and booming building permits.

  • CHF/NZD/CAD – Also weaker vs their US adversary despite the DXY stalling ahead of yesterday’s high and recoiling into a tighter band between 93.338-122 compared to Wednesday’s 93.437-92.082 extremes. Moreover, the Franc is straddling 0.9450 even though the Swiss manufacturing PMI was considerably firmer than forecast in March to offset mixed CPI and weak retail sales for the prior month, while the Kiwi has not been able to take advantage of Aud/Nzd tailwinds to retest 0.7000. Elsewhere, the Loonie has lost post-Canadian GDP momentum ahead of building permits and the Markit PMI, albeit holding above 1.2600 with the aid of firmer oil prices, as BoC Governor Macklem expresses concern about an unsustainable house price bubble and resultant rising levels of household debt. Nevertheless, Usd/Cad may be capped by decent option expiry interest extending from 1.2600-10 (1.5 bn) through 1.2630-45 (1.2 bn) to 1.2600-75 (1.3 bn) in the event of a bullish reaction to any of the Canadian or US releases that also include Challenger layoffs, jobless claims, Markit’s final manufacturing PMI, construction spending and the ISM before Fed speakers in the form of Harker and Kaplan.
  • GBP/EUR/JPY – The Pound remains propped near 1.3800 vs the Dollar and 0.8500 against the Euro, but unable to breach either psychological barrier on the back of an upgrade in UK manufacturing PMI, and aside from the obvious swathe of bids in Eur/Gbp just under the current 2021 low, Eur/Usd resilience on the 1.1700 handle is also keeping Sterling at bay. Similarly, the Yen continues to repel offers into 111.00 and an upbeat Japanese Tankan survey may be helping alongside a strong 10 year JGB auction and some bull re-flattening across the US Treasury curve.
  • SCANDI/EM – Momentum and the pendulum is still swinging away from the Sek towards the Nok, as evident by Eur/Sek remaining elevated around 10.2500 following a considerably better than anticipated Swedish manufacturing PMI in contrast to Eur/Nok continuing to hover over 10.0000. Meanwhile, the Cnh has been ruffled by China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations and slowing from the previous month, but the Try is paring more losses after a firmer Turkish manufacturing PMI and an extension of the reduction to withholding taxes for bank deposits through the end of May.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have opened the session on a firmer footing, but off initial highs, following on from Asia’s positive lead. Fundamental support for price action resides around the OPEC+ meeting, where expectations remain that OPEC+ will maintain its output cuts. Following the JMMC, alleged not to be very upbeat, Eurasia Group reported “the most likely outcome is no significant changes in production and any decisions on tapering will likely be delayed to the May meeting.” Moreover, this decision would come amid growing COVID infection rates, in some regions, hindering demand. As such, OPEC+ continuing the supply cuts has had less of an impact on the complexes’ price as usual, due to the growing concerns surrounding the economic outlook and the global recovery. The May WTI contract trades on a mid USD 60.00/bbl handle (vs low USD 59.26/bbl) whilst its Brent counterpart trades marginally north of USD 64.00/bbl (vs low USD 62.81/bbl). Spot gold and spot silver have both benefitted modestly from a pause in USD strength, with the former seeing more pronounced gains on the day and rebounding from its 3-week low while silver is more contained in comparison. At the time of writing, spot gold trades at USD 1,715/oz (vs low USD 1,706/oz) and silver trades just shy of USD 24.40/oz (vs low USD 24.26/oz). Onto base metals, LME copper is softer on the session and nearing 1-month lows after Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:30am: March Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -39.1%
  • 8:30am: March Initial Jobless Claims, est. 675,000, prior 684,000; Continuing Claims, est. 3.75m, prior 3.87m
  • 9:45am: March Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 59.2, prior 59.0
  • 10am: March ISM New Orders, prior 64.8;
  • ISM Employment, prior 54.4;
  • ISM Prices Paid, est. 83.5, prior 86.0;
  • ISM Manufacturing, est. 61.5, prior 60.8
  • 10am: Feb. Construction Spending MoM, est. -1.0%, prior 1.7%

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday marked a pretty eventful end to the first quarter, as not only did we get the announcement of Biden’s infrastructure package, but multiple European countries moved to toughen up restrictions as the continent has been forced to grapple with a rising 3rd wave of the virus. This led to a pretty divergent performance for equities on either side of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 (+0.36%) climbing to just short of an all-time high and at one point hitting its highest ever intraday level of 3994, just shy of breaching the 4,000 mark for the first time. Over in Europe however, the STOXX 600 (-0.24%) fell back from its post-pandemic high the previous day, as the prospect of fresh restrictions risked dampening economic activity further. A large rally in technology shares drove much of the divergence as the NASDAQ rose +1.54% and the NYFANG index gained +1.65%, while US banks stocks (-1.00%) and their European counterparts (-1.22%) fell back even as rates rose.

Before we go into what happened yesterday, the start of the month means that we’ll shortly be releasing our latest performance review of financial assets for March and Q1. Risk assets were the winners in Q1, with equities, oil and HY credit mostly recording a positive performance. Conversely, safe havens had a less good time, with gold ending a run of 9 successive quarterly advances, and sovereign bonds also losing ground on the back of optimism over the economic recovery, as markets brought forward their expected timing for future rate hikes. See the full report out soon for more info.

Of course, one of the biggest stories of the quarter happened right at the beginning, as the Democrats won both of the Georgia Senate races that gave their party overall control of the chamber thanks to Vice President Harris’ casting vote. In turn, this paved the way for much bigger stimulus, and yesterday we heard the administration’s latest plans from President Biden, who outlined his “American Jobs Plan” that would see $2.25 trillion invested over the next eight years. The overall price tag breaks down into $620 billion for transportation and $650 billion for measures including clean water and high-speed broadband. The bill would earmark $580 billion for American manufacturing, including $180 billion in the biggest non-defence R&D program on record. Lastly there is an expected $400 billion toward care for the elderly and disabled. Unsurprisingly there was also emphasis on sustainability and the green economy, with money for modernising the electric grid, as well as building, preserving and retrofitting homes and commercial buildings.

In his speech, President Biden said the plan would “bring everybody along” and would “build our economy from the middle out.” And there was also a nod to foreign policy objectives, with the administration’s fact sheet noting how China was “investing aggressively in R&D” as it called for further investment by the United States, while President Biden said the “rest of the world is closing in and closing in fast.” This comes following reports that both Democratic and Republican Senators said they were discussing proposals to fund semiconductor research and better compete, though worries about overall costs remain. It is uncertain what parts would get tied into the “American Jobs Plan”, but Majority Leader Schumer plans to incorporate many China-related bills into one package that would go through a bipartisan committee later this month, according to Bloomberg reports. That would include $50 billion for semiconductor manufacturing and $50 billion for the National Science Foundation.

In terms of how it’s all being paid for, the plan included a number of changes to the corporate tax code, including an increase in the corporate tax rate to 28%, and a global minimum tax of 21%. The administration said that this would “be fully paid for within the next 15 years and reduce deficits in the years after.” President Biden said he would meet with Congressional Republicans on the proposal and would engage in “good faith negotiations” with lawmakers on a path forward. However, it’s still expected that there’ll be strong Republican opposition thanks to the tax increases, and Senate Minority Leader McConnell has already responded negatively, saying that “It’s called infrastructure, but inside the Trojan horse it’s going to be more borrowed money, and massive tax increases on all the productive parts of our economy.” In terms of timelines, multiple outlets said that House Speaker Pelosi told her caucus that her aim was to have the bill voted on in the House by July 4, which would allow it to be taken up by the Senate prior to the chamber’s month-long recess in August.

Overnight in Asia, markets have followed Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (+0.69%), Hang Seng (+1.13%), Shanghai Comp (+0.25%) and Kospi (+0.59%) all seeing gains, as a number of positive data releases were reported in the region this morning. Firstly, the BoJ’s Tankan survey showed that large Japanese manufacturers have turned optimistic for the first time in six quarters with businesses of all kinds saying that they plan to boost investment by the most in decades. Additionally, we have already seen the March manufacturing PMIs in Asia which mostly printed in expansionary territory. Japan’s final PMI came in at 52.7 (vs. 52.0 in flash) while the numbers from South Korea (at 55.3 vs. 55.3 last month) , Vietnam (53.6 vs. 51.6) and Indonesia (53.2 vs. 50.9) all remained in expansionary territory. China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI was relatively weaker however at 50.6 (vs. 50.9 last month and 51.4 expected). Outside of Asia, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.02%) are trading broadly flat but those on the Nasdaq (+0.26%) are pointing higher.

Back to yesterday now, and US Treasury yields rose against the backdrop of Biden’s announcement, with 10yr yields up +3.8bps at 1.740%, to their highest closing level in over a year, albeit still beneath the intraday high of 1.774% reached on Wednesday. Inflation expectations were responsible for the rise, and 10yr breakevens climbed +2.7bps to 2.37%, their highest level since 2013, whereas real yields saw a slight rise of +0.8bps. As with equities however, it was a different story for sovereign bonds in Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds (-0.5bps), OATs (-0.3bps) and BTPs (-1.2bps) all saw modest declines.

There were some pretty major developments regarding the pandemic yesterday, as governments across Europe moved to respond to a third wave of the virus. In France, President Macron announced a four-week nationwide lockdown of schools and businesses, while warning that “the virus is more contagious and deadlier” during the current wave. He called on residents to take extra effort, even as restrictions will be somewhat flexible over the holiday weekend. Meanwhile in Italy, the government extended their own national restrictions on movement and businesses, while also being one of the first countries to make the vaccine mandatory for healthcare workers. Finally it’s been reported by Canada’s CBC News that the Canadian province of Ontario would go into a 28-day lockdown from Saturday. On the topic of the vaccine, there was some bad news out of the US, where a manufacturing error affected 15 million doses of the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine. This is not expected to meaningfully affect US vaccination efforts according to reports, with the majority of the country still relying on Moderna’s and Pfizer’s jabs. Both of those companies met their first quarter targets of 100mn and 120mn shots respectively.

In more positive news though, a final-stage trial of the Pfizer vaccine in 12-15 year olds in the US found that it was 100% effective and saw robust antibody responses. The trial enrolled 2,260 children, and while there were 18 Covid cases among the placebo group, there were no cases in the vaccinated group. At the moment, the vaccine is only authorised among those 16 and older in the US and the EU, but Pfizer said they planned to submit the data to the FDA and EMA for authorisation as soon as possible.

Looking at yesterday’s data, the Euro Area flash CPI reading for March came in at +1.3% (vs. +1.4% expected), which is its highest rate in over a year. Core inflation unexpectedly fell back however, declining to +0.9% (vs. +1.1% expected). Meanwhile in the US ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, the ADP’s report of private payrolls said that the US added +517k jobs in March (vs. +550k expected), which is the fastest pace since September. Other releases included German unemployment for March, which fell by -8k (vs. -3k expected), while data revisions in the UK showed the economy grew by +1.3% in Q4 (vs. +1.0% at previous estimate), and the overall 2020 contraction was revised to -9.8% (vs. -9.9% previously).

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the manufacturing PMIs from around the world, as well as the ISM manufacturing reading from the US. Other data releases include German retail sales for February, and the US will be releasing their weekly initial jobless claims and February’s construction spending. From central banks, Philadelphia Fed President Harker will be speaking, while the OPEC+ group will be discussing oil production.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/01/2021 – 07:55

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3doz88G Tyler Durden

Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Would Overturn ‘Right-To-Work’ Laws in 27 States


sipaphotosnine901457

Buried inside more than $2 trillion in proposed spending on everything from highways to child care, President Joe Biden’s “American Jobs Plan” would also force non-union workers to pay union dues even in states that have explicitly said that’s not mandatory.

Biden glossed over that detail in Wednesday’s speech outlining the particulars of his “American Jobs Plan.” He made just a single reference to the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, which passed the House earlier this month, calling it a bill that would “help workers organize.”

In reality, the PRO Act strengthens unions by telling workers to pay up. Among other things, the bill would amend parts of the National Labor Relations Act to allow the federal government to stomp out the so-called “right-to-work” laws that forbid unions from forcing non-members to pay a share of union dues. If passed, the PRO Act would roll back the rights of individual workers, who would no longer get to choose whether they want to financially support a union.

Passage of the PRO Act is obviously a major political priority for labor unions—Richard Trumka, president of the AFL-CIO, recently described it as a “game-changer” in an interview with NPR—because it wold provide a new stream of revenue even as the overall number of unionized workers continues to decline.

But it is a strange way to pursue Biden’s ultimate goal improving America’s infrastructure as a form of economic stimulus.

“We view this measure as a significant threat to the viability of the commercial construction industry,” warns Stephen Sandherr, CEO of the Associated General Contractors of America, an industry group. He predicts that passage of the PRO Act would usher in more labor unrest, and observes that it is difficult to complete large-scale infrastructure projects when “work is idled, workers are unpaid, and projects go uncompleted.”

It’s also a move that seems to misread obvious economic signals. Not only has the number of states with right-to-work laws been growing, but those states have seen manufacturing employment grow more than twice as fast since 2010 when compared to states without right-to-work laws. If Biden is seeking an economic boost for the country, he’d push to let all workers enjoy the freedom to choose whether to support a union or keep more of their paychecks.

Beyond the right-to-work provision, the PRO Act is a grab bag of policies that would help tip the scales towards unions. It would force employers to turn over employees’ private information—including cellphone numbers, email addresses, and work schedules—to union organizers. It would accelerate the National Labor Relation Board’s official timetable for union organizing elections in non-union workplaces. And it would codify so-called “card check” elections, removing the protection of the secret ballot when a workplace votes to unionize.

The White House says Biden’s “American Jobs Plan” will give workers “a free and fair choice to join a union.” But in calling for the passage of the PRO Act, Biden is actually taking that choice away from many workers who currently enjoy it—and transfer money directly from workers’ paychecks to labor unions’ bottom lines.

“The PRO Act does strengthen unions, but it does so mainly by giving unions more power to force recalcitrant workers to fall in line,” says Sean Higgins, a research fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a free market think tank. “The Biden administration wants to strip workers of their right for their own good.”

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4 Killed, Including A Child, In Shooting At SoCal Office Building

4 Killed, Including A Child, In Shooting At SoCal Office Building

Not that anybody is counting, but the US suffered its 4th mass shooting since most states started reopening their economies and schools when 4 people – including a child – were shot and killed Wednesday night after a gun man shot up an office building in Orange, Calif., about 30 miles southeast of Los Angeles. a fifth victim (an adult woman) was hospitalized with life-threatening injuries due to a gunshot wound, the NYT reports.

The gunfire started around 1730PT. The suspect was also hospitalized with a gunshot wound, but authorities couldn’t say whether it was self-inflicted or not. A firearm was recovered from the scene, which spanned two floors and a courtyard.

Orange Police Department spokeswoman Lt. Jennifer Amat said during a news conference on Wednesday night that officers had responded to the area of 202 West Lincoln Avenue near Glassell Street. Shots were still being fired when officers arrived at the scene, she said.

NYT reporters talked to a witness who lives in an apartment near the building.

Emma Soto, 26, who lives in an apartment near the building, was doing laundry when she said she heard seven to 10 gunshots.

“It just sounded like a popping sound,” she said. “It didn’t really sound like how you would imagine it, like in the movies. We’re hearing of all these shootings going on, so I just thought, ‘Another shooting.’ But we never imagined it would be that close to us.”

Another witness said they believed the shooting took place at a roofing business located on the first floor of the building. Police didn’t release much information, so whether or not this is accurate is unclear. They also said the woman who runs that office often brings her son to work.

Hector Gomez and Edgar Gonzalez work at a roofing business located on the first floor of the building where the shooting occurred. The two men, along with residents who were at the scene on Wednesday night, said they believed the shooting had unfolded at a real estate office on the second floor. The windows of the office appeared to have been shot out.

Mr. Gomez said the woman who ran the office sold mobile homes and would often bring her son with her to the building.

“He’s a cute little boy,” Mr. Gomez said.

The two men said they were convinced the woman and her son were among the victims. The woman’s S.U.V. was still in the parking lot as the police conducted their investigation late into the evening.

Orange is a city of 139K less than six miles from Disneyland. About a dozen police and fire vehicles blocked Lincoln Avenue, a main thoroughfare in the town, as they responded to the shooting at the squat office building, which is mostly surrounded by apartment buildings.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/01/2021 – 07:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3sL8EEW Tyler Durden