‘This Is Ransom’: White House Mulling Direct Foreign Aid To The Taliban

‘This Is Ransom’: White House Mulling Direct Foreign Aid To The Taliban

Is this what America’s “extraordinary success” in Afghanistan looks like? (In the words of President Biden on Tuesday).

White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has offered blunt confirmation in a Wednesday “Good Morning America” interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos that the United States won’t rule out giving aid directly to the Taliban regime in Kabul

A somewhat incredulous looking Stephanopoulos questioned, “We’re gonna work with the Taliban… does that include the prospect of giving them aid?” 

Sullivan without missing a beat responded of the group which was long widely condemned as a terror organization after 9/11:

“Well first of all we do believe that there is an important dimension of humanitarian assistance that should go directly to the people of Afghanistan…”

“We do intend to continue that.”

Sullivan then actually used the unsettling phrase “our economic and development assistance relationship” with the Taliban. 

He continued: 

Secondly, when it comes to our economic and development assistance relationship with the Taliban, that will be about the Taliban’s actions. It will be about whether they following through on their commitments, Their commitments to safe passage for Americans and Afghan allies. Their commitment to not allow Afghanistan to be a base from which terrorists can attack the United States.”

It’s going to be up to them, and we will wait and see by their actions how we end up responding in terms of the economic and developmental assistance relationship.”

This is who US taxpayers will be forced to send “aid” to…

The subtext here is the ‘plan B’ after the US administration is confirmed to have left many Americans behind, with estimates ranging from a couple hundred to multiple hundreds still trapped in the war-torn country. 

Plan B appears to be to literally bribe the Taliban into allowing safe-passage for remaining Americans and local allies in the form of foreign aid, or essentially ransom money.

Sullivan later in the interview tried to clarify that “It’s not going to flow through the Taliban.” 

“As you know, George, when we send humanitarian assistance to countries, we do so through … international institutions like the World Health Organization or the World Food Program, and we do so through a nongovernmental organization who, George, are still operating on the ground in Afghanistan as we speak. It will not flow through the government.” However he clearly laid out that depending on the Taliban’s “actions” and ‘good behavior’ – aid may eventually go to them. “It’s going to be up to them,” he said.

At the same time it must be remembered that some top Taliban officials remain on Washington’s ‘most wanted’ terrorists lists, literally with bounties on their heads

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/01/2021 – 13:55

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Hurricane Ida, Climate Change, and Falling Trends in Global Deaths From Natural Disasters


IdaNASA

Hurricane Ida rapidly spun itself up to a Category 4 tropical cyclone—maximum sustained winds at 150 miles per hour—just before it made landfall on the coast of Louisiana on Sunday morning. Such rapid intensification is consistent with the effects of man-made climate change on hurricanes. The recently released Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted, “It is likely that the proportion of major (Category 3–5) tropical cyclones (TCs) and the frequency of rapid TC intensification events have increased over the past four decades.”

Contrarily, recent research does not yet detect a significant increase in the intensity or frequency of Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States. Some researchers suspect that particulate air pollution combined with natural variation suppressed hurricane activity in the North Atlantic during the mid-20th century. On the other hand, the AR6 projects that “the total global frequency of TC formation will decrease or remain unchanged with increasing global warming (medium confidence). Basically, as a result of man-made warming, hurricanes and cyclones are expected to become fewer but more intense.

As the world continues to warm, the AR6 forecasts that “the proportion of intense TCs, average peak TC wind speeds, and peak wind speeds of the most intense TCs will increase on the global scale with increasing global warming (high confidence).” In addition, tropical cyclones appear to be becoming wetter. “Available event attribution studies of observed strong TCs provide medium confidence for a human contribution to extreme TC rainfall,” observes the AR6. Why? Because, among other things, near-surface atmospheric moisture content increases by about 7 percent for every 1 degree celsius increase in warming.

Hurricane Ida and its remnants have so far knocked out electricity to around 1 million homes and businesses and killed 6 people. In contrast to the Hurricane Katrina disaster (1,833 deaths) 16 years ago, New Orleans’ massively upgraded levees held, so the Big Easy escaped inundation this time. The protection afforded by the improved levees is an example of how increasing wealth and technological prowess over the past couple of centuries is enabling more and more of humanity to survive natural disasters.

Even as the world population nearly quadrupled, the global natural disaster death rates have plummeted, according to Our World In Data.

In fact, the annual number of people dying as a result of natural disasters has fallen by about 90 percent over the past century:

Deaths from weather and climatological events like floods and droughts have especially steeply declined over the past century. As University of Colorado environmental studies professor Roger Pielke, Jr. tweeted:

We may not be any better at preventing extreme weather events, but we are much better at surviving them.

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Hurricane Ida, Climate Change, and Falling Trends in Global Deaths From Natural Disasters


IdaNASA

Hurricane Ida rapidly spun itself up to a Category 4 tropical cyclone—maximum sustained winds at 150 miles per hour—just before it made landfall on the coast of Louisiana on Sunday morning. Such rapid intensification is consistent with the effects of man-made climate change on hurricanes. The recently released Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted, “It is likely that the proportion of major (Category 3–5) tropical cyclones (TCs) and the frequency of rapid TC intensification events have increased over the past four decades.”

Contrarily, recent research does not yet detect a significant increase in the intensity or frequency of Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States. Some researchers suspect that particulate air pollution combined with natural variation suppressed hurricane activity in the North Atlantic during the mid-20th century. On the other hand, the AR6 projects that “the total global frequency of TC formation will decrease or remain unchanged with increasing global warming (medium confidence). Basically, as a result of man-made warming, hurricanes and cyclones are expected to become fewer but more intense.

As the world continues to warm, the AR6 forecasts that “the proportion of intense TCs, average peak TC wind speeds, and peak wind speeds of the most intense TCs will increase on the global scale with increasing global warming (high confidence).” In addition, tropical cyclones appear to be becoming wetter. “Available event attribution studies of observed strong TCs provide medium confidence for a human contribution to extreme TC rainfall,” observes the AR6. Why? Because, among other things, near-surface atmospheric moisture content increases by about 7 percent for every 1 degree celsius increase in warming.

Hurricane Ida and its remnants have so far knocked out electricity to around 1 million homes and businesses and killed 6 people. In contrast to the Hurricane Katrina disaster (1,833 deaths) 16 years ago, New Orleans’ massively upgraded levees held, so the Big Easy escaped inundation this time. The protection afforded by the improved levees is an example of how increasing wealth and technological prowess over the past couple of centuries is enabling more and more of humanity to survive natural disasters.

Even as the world population nearly quadrupled, the global natural disaster death rates have plummeted, according to Our World In Data.

In fact, the annual number of people dying as a result of natural disasters has fallen by about 90 percent over the past century:

Deaths from weather and climatological events like floods and droughts have especially steeply declined over the past century. As University of Colorado environmental studies professor Roger Pielke, Jr. tweeted:

We may not be any better at preventing extreme weather events, but we are much better at surviving them.

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Donda Is a Portal Into Kanye West’s Exquisite Mania 


283713_123_12808_8

Over the last five years, Kanye West has met Donald Trump, flirted with MAGA-ism, gotten divorced from Kim Kardashian West, re-devoted his life to Christianity, produced an award-winning gospel album, and run for president (receiving roughly 60,000 votes). Though West has taken off the red cap, he’s still finding new ways to press people’s buttons, daring fans to keep liking his music, no matter how he presents himself. 

West began his public life as an innovative music producer and rapper, but has since morphed into something grander and weirder—part pop star, part fashion mogul, part social media maniac, part eternal thinkpiece subject. No other contemporary pop star courts controversy quite like Kanye West. Whether by design or by accident, something is always going on with West, and whatever it is, it’s usually too much. It’s also almost always fascinating. 

At times, real-life antics have threatened to overtake the music, but for the last year, the antics and the music have become conjoined. At the end of July, West finally set a release date for Donda, an album he’d been teasing for more than a year.

After a scattered period that included Ye, a brief album that debuted to decidedly mixed reviews, the title alone seemed to promise a return to West’s musical roots: It was named after his mother, Donda C. West, who died in 2007. West rose to fame on the strength of both his behind-the-beats production savvy and his heart-on-the-sleeve intimacy; Donda looked like an opportunity to revisit both. 

Before the album’s official release, however, he planned a show—a livestreamed event in which he simply played the album for a crowd. The resulting performance, in which Kanye wore netting to obscure his face and strolled around a blank, starkly lit Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia, was one of the strangest and most striking mass-audience musical events in recent memory. 

Even stranger, in some ways, was that the promised album did not materialize the next day, on its scheduled release date. Instead, West announced another show, and another release date. The version of Donda he’d played had its moments but sounded decidedly unfinished. West indicated he was still working on it, supposedly from his cell-like quarters inside the stadium itself. 

For West, this was par for the course; he’s delayed or failed to produce albums before. When it comes to records, he’s a famous procrastinator, always tweaking and revising right up to the last minute, and sometimes even making post-release changes, as on his 2016 album The Life of Pablo, which West edited on streaming services after it came out. 

So it wasn’t all that surprising that Donda didn’t materialize after the first live performance—or the second one, in which West replicated the sparse bed-and-boots layout of his stadium quarters in the middle of the field, surrounded himself with dancers, and, in the final moments, launched himself through the sky. 

The show, like the first one, was idiosyncratic in the extreme, a magnetically bizarre spectacle that became one of Apple’s most-watched livestreams ever. It was mesmerizing—part goofy performance art piece, part soul-baring musical demo reel.

Later in the month, West scheduled yet another live stadium performance, this time in his hometown of Chicago where he had a replica of his childhood home built in the middle of the field. At the end of the show, which was again watched by millions, he appeared with shock rocker Marilyn Manson, who is facing several lawsuits for alleged sexual assaults, and rapper DaBaby.

The latter was recently booted from a string of festival performances following after video emerged that he’d been shouting “If you didn’t show up today with HIV, AIDS, any of them deadly sexually transmitted diseases that’ll make you die in two, three weeks, then put your cellphone light up,” at a Miami music festival. But both Manson and DaBaby ended up appearing on the record. Was West making some sort of oblique statement by partnering with these figures? Did he just like associating with controversial people? Was this the 2021 music-world equivalent of donning the MAGA cap? Or was there something more? 

The day after the third show, the album once again failed to materialize. And it began to seem as if it might never come out, that it might exist only as a series of temporary installations seen at fantastically odd stadium performances and livestream recordings of questionable legality passed around by fans. The performances of the album might be what Donda actually was.

West was Truman Show-ing himself, presenting himself as a guileless not-quite everyman, a weirdo in an elaborate bubble living his life for our entertainment and amusement. How could the album ever be released, let alone finished? Kanye West, the person, never was.  

When Donda finally hit streaming services last Sunday, West immediately claimed that the studio had released the album without his permission. One of the album’s tracks disappeared, then reappeared the following morning. Even in release, the album wasn’t finished. With Kanye West, nothing ever is. 

But maybe that’s the point. 

What’s there for us to listen to now is just as fascinating and weird as the process that led to its release—a sprawling, ambitious, intimate, epic sketchbook of an album. Clocking in at more than two dozen songs and over 100 minutes long, it’s overstuffed and somewhat under-developed yet packed with moments of exuberant revelation. It synthesizes musical elements from the gospel tradition, classic soul, film scores, scuzzy trap-rap, industrial metal, and radio-pop. As always with West, it’s entirely too much—and also fascinating.

The album opens with a repeated incantation of the word “Donda,” then proceeds to a grand opening number, the stadium-rock anthem “Jail,” in which West offers the half-hearted contradiction, “I’ll be honest, we all liars.” The song ends with a guest verse by fellow rap royalty and recurring West collaborator Jay-Z. The guest verse looks back not only on their work together, grandiosely comparing the duo to Moses and Jesus but on West’s political flirtations. “Told him, “Stop all of that red cap, we goin’ home,” Jay-Z raps, before moving on to complaining about thinkpieces.

It’s funny, on-the-nose, vainglorious, self-referential, and self-aware without being self-critical, which makes it a fitting frame for the rest of the record. Despite the name and the evocative stadium setpiece, Donda, it turns out, isn’t a deep-dive into West’s history. Although the album draws from his past, it’s not a memoir or a story of self-creation. West isn’t reflecting on himself so much as simply being himself.

The ecstatic musical highs are still there—anyone who has ever enjoyed a Kanye West record will find some beat, some chorus, some expertly twisted synth hook to appreciate—and the messy, unfinished nature of the record makes it feel even more personal and more appropriate. West may not have finished the album to his liking, but like him, it’s out there, in all its shaggy, half-genius glory for all of us to experience and argue about.

With its epic running time and its not-quite-complete feel, Donda is a pure reflection of the artist; it’s a little like getting a glimpse into Kanye West’s musical diary. In that way, at least, it lives up to the implied promise of the title. Donda is a journey into Kanye West’s exquisitely tortured psyche. West has done what only the most powerful pop stars ever manage to do: He’s brought us into his mania. The man, the music, the antics, and the experience of watching him live and listening to his music have fused. Donda is too much in every way. But for Kanye West, too much is barely enough. 

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Ethereum Explodes Higher On Furious Short Squeeze

Ethereum Explodes Higher On Furious Short Squeeze

Just two days ago, when Ethereum suddenly broke away from the gravitational pull of its bitcoin correlation, we wrote that “Ethereum Blasts Higher, Decoupling From Bitcoin, As Attention Turns To Unprecedented NFT Frenzy“, and pointing to the accelerating institutional adoption and surging one-month forward swap, we predicted much more upside for the second largest cryptocurrency which serves as the platform for the latest NFT craze.

Predictably, the post promptly generated the requisite critical commentary among the peanut gallery, where traders are so brilliant they can’t be bothered to even consider an outside view. Maybe they should have, because fast forward two days when we find that not only did Bloomberg catch up to what we said on Monday

… but with Ethereum moving sharply higher this week, the moment it cross the critical resistance level of 3,600 it triggered a furious short squeeze which pushed it just shy of 3,800 – the highest price since May – and just a few hundred dollars away from its all time record high.

And yes, those who were busy explaining why Ethereum is garbage, shitcoin, etc, and why only they know better, would have been 10% richer in just 2 days. But they don’t need the money…

Finally, those wondering what happens next, here are three observations.

First, the NFT frenzy is only just starting to move:

Second, the “max gamma” for Ether is far above the spot price and it could send the crypto currency as high as $6,000, if some enterprising market manipulator decided to force a gamma squeeze.

Finally, futures traders remain extremely bullish with the 1 month premium to spot near all time highs, while the ratio of ETH to BTC open interest is now matching record levels, meaning that not only is sentiment shifting even more away from BTC and toward ETH, but that the futures market see much more upside for ethereum in the coming weeks.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/01/2021 – 13:31

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3t3BmSe Tyler Durden

Police Investigate Reported Shooting At North Carolina High School

Police Investigate Reported Shooting At North Carolina High School

Now that summer is over and students are returning to classrooms, school shootings are returning to the headlines as well.

A North Carolina high school is on lockdown after a shooting on school property.

Mount Tabor High School’s campus has been secured and police “are doing everything possible to keep students safe,” the Winston-Salem Police Department tweeted.

“We are actively investigating what happened and will share confirmed information when available,” police added.

 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/01/2021 – 13:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3jA0MnB Tyler Durden

Vaccines Are Good. Vaccine Mandates From the Government Are Bad.


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Politicians love force.

The idea of leaving us alone to make our own decisions goes against their nature.

To be sure, civilized society sometimes needs government force: police to punish killers, soldiers to protect us from foreign invaders, environmental police to stop my smoke from flowing to your lungs…

But the political class always goes too far.

Now some want medical police to force everyone to get vaccinated. I’m surprised it hasn’t happened already.

“It has!” you say. “I have to get vaccinated to keep my job, for my kids to attend school, to go to the movies, a restaurant, etc.”

That’s force, absolutely. But it’s not mandatory. There’s an out—we don’t have to work for the government, eat indoors, or go to a movie theater. We can homeschool our kids. We still have choice.

So far, politicians haven’t sent police into homes to force everyone to get vaccinated.

They did do that once.

In Philadelphia 30 years ago, a measles outbreak sickened 1,400 people, mostly children, and killed nine. The outbreak spread because leaders of two fundamentalist churches told congregants to refuse the vaccine; God would do the healing.

Philadelphia’s health department got a court order that compelled parents to allow their kids to be vaccinated.

Remarkably, “They complied with the law,” says vaccine expert Dr. Paul Offit in my new video. “They were law-abiding.” The Philadelphia parents didn’t fight the order. That ended the epidemic.

But I doubt that vaccine-resistant Americans would be similarly compliant today. Now there’s an anti-vaccine movement. I’m surprised by the outpouring of hatred for Offit on my YouTube and Facebook channels that follows my video.

Some of it is nonsense from ignorant anti-vaxxers. But I respect commenters expressing versions of the chant, “My body, my choice!”

That slogan makes a good point.

We are not really free if we don’t own our own bodies. (It’s another reason to oppose the Drug War.) Individuals should get to decide what’s put in our own bodies.

But a deadly pandemic is a special case.

COVID-19 continues to kill, partly because some people refuse the vaccine. “This virus has a great many friends,” complains Offit. “Science denialists, conspiracy theorists, political pundits. It’s hard to watch.”

“People have reason to be suspicious!” I say. “The government has experimented on people and lied to people.”

(Officials once promised Black syphilis patients treatment but gave them empty pills. The CIA sneaked LSD into people’s drinks. More recently, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Americans don’t need to wear masks, and then he said we should wear masks.)

“I’m not saying that the government hasn’t done things that make one trust them less,” Offit responds. “Or that the CDC hasn’t made statements that were incorrect, [but] such is the nature of science. You do learn as you go.”

What we have learned now is that the vaccine does dramatically reduce hospitalization and death, and we’d all be better off if more people took it.

Vaccine skeptics point to media reports of “breakthrough” cases, vaccinated people who get COVID-19 anyway. Offit’s reply? “I’m on CNN and MSNBC a lot…I think they want to scare people.”

They do. It raises ratings, and it makes reporters feel important.

But Offit points out that even after delta, “99.5 percent of people killed by this virus are unvaccinated! Ninety-seven percent of those hospitalized are unvaccinated! No vaccine works 100 percent.”

Today’s COVID-19 vaccines have now been tested on millions of people. It’s clear that they are very safe and that they save lives.

It’s why Offit would mandate vaccinations.

That’s where we disagree.

I consider vaccine refusers foolish and selfish. I got vaccinated, and I wish you would.

But government should never force a treatment on people. That’s tyranny.

That said, I shouldn’t say “never.”

If you are proven a direct threat to others—if your behavior kills—then the safety police do have a right to step in to stop you from hurting others.

Short of that, politicians should never force us to put anything into our own bodies.

COPYRIGHT 2021 BY JFS PRODUCTIONS INC.

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Donda Is a Portal Into Kanye West’s Exquisite Mania 


283713_123_12808_8

Over the last five years, Kanye West has met Donald Trump, flirted with MAGA-ism, gotten divorced from Kim Kardashian West, re-devoted his life to Christianity, produced an award-winning gospel album, and run for president (receiving roughly 60,000 votes). Though West has taken off the red cap, he’s still finding new ways to press people’s buttons, daring fans to keep liking his music, no matter how he presents himself. 

West began his public life as an innovative music producer and rapper, but has since morphed into something grander and weirder—part pop star, part fashion mogul, part social media maniac, part eternal thinkpiece subject. No other contemporary pop star courts controversy quite like Kanye West. Whether by design or by accident, something is always going on with West, and whatever it is, it’s usually too much. It’s also almost always fascinating. 

At times, real-life antics have threatened to overtake the music, but for the last year, the antics and the music have become conjoined. At the end of July, West finally set a release date for Donda, an album he’d been teasing for more than a year.

After a scattered period that included Ye, a brief album that debuted to decidedly mixed reviews, the title alone seemed to promise a return to West’s musical roots: It was named after his mother, Donda C. West, who died in 2007. West rose to fame on the strength of both his behind-the-beats production savvy and his heart-on-the-sleeve intimacy; Donda looked like an opportunity to revisit both. 

Before the album’s official release, however, he planned a show—a livestreamed event in which he simply played the album for a crowd. The resulting performance, in which Kanye wore netting to obscure his face and strolled around a blank, starkly lit Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia, was one of the strangest and most striking mass-audience musical events in recent memory. 

Even stranger, in some ways, was that the promised album did not materialize the next day, on its scheduled release date. Instead, West announced another show, and another release date. The version of Donda he’d played had its moments but sounded decidedly unfinished. West indicated he was still working on it, supposedly from his cell-like quarters inside the stadium itself. 

For West, this was par for the course; he’s delayed or failed to produce albums before. When it comes to records, he’s a famous procrastinator, always tweaking and revising right up to the last minute, and sometimes even making post-release changes, as on his 2016 album The Life of Pablo, which West edited on streaming services after it came out. 

So it wasn’t all that surprising that Donda didn’t materialize after the first live performance—or the second one, in which West replicated the sparse bed-and-boots layout of his stadium quarters in the middle of the field, surrounded himself with dancers, and, in the final moments, launched himself through the sky. 

The show, like the first one, was idiosyncratic in the extreme, a magnetically bizarre spectacle that became one of Apple’s most-watched livestreams ever. It was mesmerizing—part goofy performance art piece, part soul-baring musical demo reel.

Later in the month, West scheduled yet another live stadium performance, this time in his hometown of Chicago where he had a replica of his childhood home built in the middle of the field. At the end of the show, which was again watched by millions, he appeared with shock rocker Marilyn Manson, who is facing several lawsuits for alleged sexual assaults, and rapper DaBaby.

The latter was recently booted from a string of festival performances following after video emerged that he’d been shouting “If you didn’t show up today with HIV, AIDS, any of them deadly sexually transmitted diseases that’ll make you die in two, three weeks, then put your cellphone light up,” at a Miami music festival. But both Manson and DaBaby ended up appearing on the record. Was West making some sort of oblique statement by partnering with these figures? Did he just like associating with controversial people? Was this the 2021 music-world equivalent of donning the MAGA cap? Or was there something more? 

The day after the third show, the album once again failed to materialize. And it began to seem as if it might never come out, that it might exist only as a series of temporary installations seen at fantastically odd stadium performances and livestream recordings of questionable legality passed around by fans. The performances of the album might be what Donda actually was.

West was Truman Show-ing himself, presenting himself as a guileless not-quite everyman, a weirdo in an elaborate bubble living his life for our entertainment and amusement. How could the album ever be released, let alone finished? Kanye West, the person, never was.  

When Donda finally hit streaming services last Sunday, West immediately claimed that the studio had released the album without his permission. One of the album’s tracks disappeared, then reappeared the following morning. Even in release, the album wasn’t finished. With Kanye West, nothing ever is. 

But maybe that’s the point. 

What’s there for us to listen to now is just as fascinating and weird as the process that led to its release—a sprawling, ambitious, intimate, epic sketchbook of an album. Clocking in at more than two dozen songs and over 100 minutes long, it’s overstuffed and somewhat under-developed yet packed with moments of exuberant revelation. It synthesizes musical elements from the gospel tradition, classic soul, film scores, scuzzy trap-rap, industrial metal, and radio-pop. As always with West, it’s entirely too much—and also fascinating.

The album opens with a repeated incantation of the word “Donda,” then proceeds to a grand opening number, the stadium-rock anthem “Jail,” in which West offers the half-hearted contradiction, “I’ll be honest, we all liars.” The song ends with a guest verse by fellow rap royalty and recurring West collaborator Jay-Z. The guest verse looks back not only on their work together, grandiosely comparing the duo to Moses and Jesus but on West’s political flirtations. “Told him, “Stop all of that red cap, we goin’ home,” Jay-Z raps, before moving on to complaining about thinkpieces.

It’s funny, on-the-nose, vainglorious, self-referential, and self-aware without being self-critical, which makes it a fitting frame for the rest of the record. Despite the name and the evocative stadium setpiece, Donda, it turns out, isn’t a deep-dive into West’s history. Although the album draws from his past, it’s not a memoir or a story of self-creation. West isn’t reflecting on himself so much as simply being himself.

The ecstatic musical highs are still there—anyone who has ever enjoyed a Kanye West record will find some beat, some chorus, some expertly twisted synth hook to appreciate—and the messy, unfinished nature of the record makes it feel even more personal and more appropriate. West may not have finished the album to his liking, but like him, it’s out there, in all its shaggy, half-genius glory for all of us to experience and argue about.

With its epic running time and its not-quite-complete feel, Donda is a pure reflection of the artist; it’s a little like getting a glimpse into Kanye West’s musical diary. In that way, at least, it lives up to the implied promise of the title. Donda is a journey into Kanye West’s exquisitely tortured psyche. West has done what only the most powerful pop stars ever manage to do: He’s brought us into his mania. The man, the music, the antics, and the experience of watching him live and listening to his music have fused. Donda is too much in every way. But for Kanye West, too much is barely enough. 

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Fed’s Rate Corridor 1 Basis Point Away From Breach Amid Record Liquidiuty Glut

Fed’s Rate Corridor 1 Basis Point Away From Breach Amid Record Liquidiuty Glut

The biggest monetary circle jerk in world history, where the Fed floods the system with billions in liquidity in the form of its daily QE, and then quickly mops it up when that same liquidity is parked right back at the Fed by dozens of banking counterparties in the form of reverse repos is getting so bloated it is about to break the Fed’s key rates pathway.

On Tuesday, the Fed’s reverse repo facility saw a record $1.190 trillion in funds dumped at the Fed – inert cash which earns 0.05% annually courtesy of the Fed – and a jump of $49 billion overnight.

A big reason behind the jump was the traditional month-end liquidity scramble (whether that is the case or not we will find out in a few minutes when we get the Sept 1 ON RRP usage), but whatever the specific reason there is no denying that the Fed’s most important liquidity facility is rapidly headed to $2 trillion if not more.

The problem is whether we can get there without the Fed’s most important rates corridor getting breached in the process.

That’s because on Tuesday, the key benchmark that the Federal Reserve targets to control monetary policy slid to just 0.06% – a whopping 2bps drop from the 0.08% the day before. Whopping because while 1 basis point may not sound like much, when one applies millions of turns of leverage to this core liquidity rate, it starts to add up.

In any case, the effective fed funds rate – which is bounded in loose terms by the Fed’s lower and upper fed funds corridor or 0.00% to 0.25%, and framed in a functional sense by the Reverse Repo rate on the bottom and the IOER rate on top, closed the gap to the offering yield on the Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility, which is supposed to act as a floor for the front end, to just 1 basis point! As a reminder, the Fed raised its administered rates in the June FOMC precisely to avoid a scenario where the effective Fed Funds rate encroaches on the lower end of the Fed’s rate corridor…

… and yet here we are.

To be sure, many expect the rate to rebound to 0.07% or 0.08% today now that the month-end liquidity glut has passed. Indeed, Wrightson ICAP said it expects fed funds and OBFR to settle in at Monday’s levels of 0.08% and 0.07% for the first half of September

As for the earlier decline in the fed funds rate, the culprit appears to be excess liquidity that is sending the Federal Home Loan Bank discount rates lower amid continued reserve expansion and bill paydowns, according to Credit Suisse

“This has been evident over the last couple weeks, with FHLB Chicago’s overnight discount rate falling from 4.5bp to 2bp,” strategist Jonathan Cohn writes in a note. “At these lower rates, the trade borrowing dollars via overnight discount notes and lending into FF can earn the same spread at a lower FF rate.” FHLBs are the primary lenders in the fed funds market, so it’s no surprise that such a change in funding rates could move the market.

Cohn added that the dynamic shouldn’t worry the Fed as long as the arbitrage trade that defines the fed funds market remains intact and the reverse repo counterparty limits don’t bind the GSEs. However, with just 1 basis point of buffer between the effective Fed Funds and the Reverse Repo rate, there is virtually no margin of error left and should we get a convergence then the Fed may have to scramble to hike its administered rates once again, pushing the Reverse Repo rate to 0.1% or more.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg explains the pressure pushing down overnight rates toward zero is proving a major headache for money-market funds as it “hampers their ability to invest profitably, and can lead to further disruptions as they begin to waive fees to avoid passing on negative rates to shareholders. A number of firms including Vanguard Group shut down prime money-market funds last year after struggling to cover operating costs in the low-interest-rate environment.”

As discussed here previously, money-market rates have been under pressure all year as a result of the central bank’s long-standing asset purchases and drawdowns of the Treasury’s cash account, which is jamming reserves into the system, and the only outlet is the Fed’s own reverse repo facility.

At the same time, supply of much needed collateral has been dwindling as the Treasury cuts bill supply to create more borrowing room under the debt ceiling, leaving investors scrambling for places to park cash. And, as noted above, those that have access to the Fed’s so-called RRP facility have opted to leave money there, pushing balances to all-time highs in recent days.

“The system certainly remains very flush with liquidity,” said Credit Suisse’s Cohn. “That said, the capacious RRP facility, as well as apparent Fed willingness to lift counterparty limits should they result in downward pressure on overnight rates, definitely reduces the risk associated with such a backdrop.”

We would not be so sanguine: in the minutes of the July 27-28 FOMC meeting, we read that Lorie Logan, manager of the System Open Market Account at the New York Fed, said that it may become appropriate to lift the RRP counterparty limit from $80 billion if a number of users reached their threshold.  And with just 1 basis point away from “crossing the streams”, the Fed may have no choice but to do everything it can to ease liquidity constraints in a system which is bursting at the seams with the Fed’s trillions in excess liquidity.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/01/2021 – 13:04

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3t4zZml Tyler Durden

Vaccines Are Good. Vaccine Mandates From the Government Are Bad.


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Politicians love force.

The idea of leaving us alone to make our own decisions goes against their nature.

To be sure, civilized society sometimes needs government force: police to punish killers, soldiers to protect us from foreign invaders, environmental police to stop my smoke from flowing to your lungs…

But the political class always goes too far.

Now some want medical police to force everyone to get vaccinated. I’m surprised it hasn’t happened already.

“It has!” you say. “I have to get vaccinated to keep my job, for my kids to attend school, to go to the movies, a restaurant, etc.”

That’s force, absolutely. But it’s not mandatory. There’s an out—we don’t have to work for the government, eat indoors, or go to a movie theater. We can homeschool our kids. We still have choice.

So far, politicians haven’t sent police into homes to force everyone to get vaccinated.

They did do that once.

In Philadelphia 30 years ago, a measles outbreak sickened 1,400 people, mostly children, and killed nine. The outbreak spread because leaders of two fundamentalist churches told congregants to refuse the vaccine; God would do the healing.

Philadelphia’s health department got a court order that compelled parents to allow their kids to be vaccinated.

Remarkably, “They complied with the law,” says vaccine expert Dr. Paul Offit in my new video. “They were law-abiding.” The Philadelphia parents didn’t fight the order. That ended the epidemic.

But I doubt that vaccine-resistant Americans would be similarly compliant today. Now there’s an anti-vaccine movement. I’m surprised by the outpouring of hatred for Offit on my YouTube and Facebook channels that follows my video.

Some of it is nonsense from ignorant anti-vaxxers. But I respect commenters expressing versions of the chant, “My body, my choice!”

That slogan makes a good point.

We are not really free if we don’t own our own bodies. (It’s another reason to oppose the Drug War.) Individuals should get to decide what’s put in our own bodies.

But a deadly pandemic is a special case.

COVID-19 continues to kill, partly because some people refuse the vaccine. “This virus has a great many friends,” complains Offit. “Science denialists, conspiracy theorists, political pundits. It’s hard to watch.”

“People have reason to be suspicious!” I say. “The government has experimented on people and lied to people.”

(Officials once promised Black syphilis patients treatment but gave them empty pills. The CIA sneaked LSD into people’s drinks. More recently, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Americans don’t need to wear masks, and then he said we should wear masks.)

“I’m not saying that the government hasn’t done things that make one trust them less,” Offit responds. “Or that the CDC hasn’t made statements that were incorrect, [but] such is the nature of science. You do learn as you go.”

What we have learned now is that the vaccine does dramatically reduce hospitalization and death, and we’d all be better off if more people took it.

Vaccine skeptics point to media reports of “breakthrough” cases, vaccinated people who get COVID-19 anyway. Offit’s reply? “I’m on CNN and MSNBC a lot…I think they want to scare people.”

They do. It raises ratings, and it makes reporters feel important.

But Offit points out that even after delta, “99.5 percent of people killed by this virus are unvaccinated! Ninety-seven percent of those hospitalized are unvaccinated! No vaccine works 100 percent.”

Today’s COVID-19 vaccines have now been tested on millions of people. It’s clear that they are very safe and that they save lives.

It’s why Offit would mandate vaccinations.

That’s where we disagree.

I consider vaccine refusers foolish and selfish. I got vaccinated, and I wish you would.

But government should never force a treatment on people. That’s tyranny.

That said, I shouldn’t say “never.”

If you are proven a direct threat to others—if your behavior kills—then the safety police do have a right to step in to stop you from hurting others.

Short of that, politicians should never force us to put anything into our own bodies.

COPYRIGHT 2021 BY JFS PRODUCTIONS INC.

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