Month: December 2021

Ghislaine Maxwell Joined In Sexual Encounters With Epstein, Accuser Testifies

Ghislaine Maxwell Joined In Sexual Encounters With Epstein, Accuser Testifies

Authored by Dave Paone via The Epoch Times,

The second day of the Ghislaine Maxwell trial started where the first day ended: with direct testimony from Jeffrey Epstein’s pilot, Lawrence P. Visoski, Jr.

U.S. Attorney Lara Pomerantz continued to ask Visoski how Epstein’s various residences, both domestic and international, were laid out.

Visoski had a very clear memory of each, including at times, square footage. The jury often saw photos of the lavish homes.

Then Pomerantz asked him questions about the layouts of Epstein’s various aircraft. Visoski specifically mentioned two types of couches on Epstein’s Boeing 727. The jury viewed photographs of the circular couch in which Visoski called the “round room.”

While Visoski often had meet-and-greets with passengers, he testified that the door to the cockpit was always closed during flights.

Visoski testified that he wrote up passenger manifests for each flight.

In this courtroom sketch, Lawrence Paul Visoski Jr., who was one of Jeffrey Epstein’s pilots, testifies on the witness stand during Ghislaine Maxwell’s sex trafficking trial in New York, on Nov. 29, 2021. (AP Photo/Elizabeth Williams)

Sometimes he only knew a passenger’s first name and if he didn’t know any name at all, he simply wrote male or female.

In order to maintain anonymity, Judge Alison Nathan has allowed witnesses to use either solely their first name or a made-up one.

One such witness will be Jane, who is an alleged victim of Epstein and Maxwell. Her alleged abuse started at age 14.

Visoski recalled meeting Jane once, aboard a plane, while it was still on the ground.

Upon cross-examination, defense attorney Christian Everdell had Visoski look at passenger manifests (not shown to the jury) where Jane’s actual name was listed, but with no last name, for three flights.

Visoski confirmed that there was an employee with the same first name and spelling. Visoski couldn’t confirm which one was on the flights.

Upon further cross-examination, Visoski testified that he never saw an underage girl on a flight without a parent, he had various interactions with passengers, and never saw any sexual activity, or evidence of sexual activity, on the planes.

Visoski also testified that he was never told by Epstein to remain in the cockpit and had the freedom to get coffee from the galley, which was located in the center of Epstein’s Boeing 727, and to use the lavatory in Epstein’s Gulfstream, which was located in the back of the cabin, far from the cockpit.

There was a lighthearted moment with Visoski commenting that all the talk about bathrooms was reminding him he needed to use one. The witness, the defense attorney, and the judge all had a laugh. The judge called for a short recess.

Visoski said some of the more well-known passengers on various flights included President Bill Clinton, Senators John Glenn and George Mitchell, violinist Itzhak Perlman, Donald Trump, Prince Andrew, Duke of York, Kevin Spacey, and Chris Tucker.

Visoski is the father of two girls, who were quite young when he worked for Epstein. He testified that both of them were often alone with Maxwell on Epstein’s Santa Fe, New Mexico ranch, where they played with the horses.

The pilot testified that if he knew of any misconduct with minors going on with people within the organization, he would never have allowed his daughters to associate with them and quit.

Visoski confirmed that years later, Epstein paid for tuition for his two daughters, for both private high school and college. Visoski testified that Epstein made the same offer to all his employees.

Epstein had also purchased several luxury cars (including a Jaguar) and registered them to Visoski for his personal use, but Visoski never felt the cars belonged to him.

Everdell and Visoski spoke about Visoski’s professional relationship with Maxwell. He testified he never saw anything to indicate she was abusing underage girls.

In addition to flying Epstein’s planes, Visoski installed home theater and audio equipment in all of Epstein’s residences.

The second witness for the prosecution was “Jane”—a pseudonym she said she prefers, in part to protect a 22-year acting career. She is the first of four women described as key accusers in the indictment against Maxwell.

In this courtroom sketch, assistant U.S. attorney Alison Moe questions an unidentified victim “Jane” about her experiences with Jeffery Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, in New York, on Nov. 30, 2021. (AP Photo/Elizabeth Williams)

The woman, now in her early 40s, testified about her father’s sudden death when she was 14, her “not great” home life, and how she was first approached by Maxwell at the summer camp for teens at the Interlochen Center for the Arts in Michigan.

She was 14 and she and her two brothers attended as well.

She recalled how she was eating ice cream with her campmates and Maxwell approached them, bringing her pet Yorkie along. Epstein soon joined them.

After her friends left, Jane continued to talk to Epstein and Maxwell. They explained they were benefactors to the camp and awarded scholarships to children. They asked her about her plans.

It turned out all three of them were from Palm Beach, Florida. At this point, Jane’s mother had lost the family house due to lack of funds and the family was living in someone’s pool house, with Jane and her mother sharing a bed.

Jane’s mother also started suffering from depression.

Just after the start of eighth grade, Jane and her mother were invited to Epstein’s Palm Beach estate for tea. Thus began regular visits to the house.

Invitations no longer included the mother. During one visit, Jane testified that while recreating around the pool, four women, plus Maxwell, were either topless or completely naked.

Maxwell, said Jane, showed an interest in Jane’s life and Jane viewed her as an older sister.

Epstein started giving Jane cash and gifts. Then he started buying her clothes and paying for voice lessons. One shopping trip included a stop at Victoria’s Secret.

Jane claims she had her first sexual encounter with Epstein in 1994, at age 14. He took her into the pool house, pulled his sweatpants down, put her on his lap and began to masturbate.

She said she told no one because she “felt gross and ashamed.”

Jane testified that she’d see both Epstein and Maxwell naked soon after.

She recalled when Epstein and Maxwell took her to his bedroom, took off their clothes and fondled each other. “There were hands everywhere,” said Jane.

Epstein asked her to take off her top.

Jane testified that there were more visits, each with more sexual contact. Maxwell introduced her to the “massage room,” and gave Jane instructions on how to massage Epstein, which included breast and penis touching.

Jane claims Epstein regularly touched her breasts and vagina, and Maxwell mainly touched her breasts.

Parties at the estate were orgies, with oral sex and “full-on intercourse,” said Jane.

The abuse continued through age 16, with Maxwell almost always being in the room.

Ghislaine Maxwell, the Epstein associate accused of sex trafficking, watches as Lawrence Visoski, longtime pilot of the late Jeffrey Epstein, is cross-examined during her trial in a courtroom sketch in New York City, on Nov. 30, 2021. (Jane Rosenberg/Reuters)

Jane claims Epstein flew her to his residences in New York City and to the ranch in New Mexico. Each location had a massage room where more sexual abuse took place.

“I felt very ashamed,” said Jane, and felt she’d get in trouble if she told anyone.

Jane said she never told her mother about the abuse because in her family discussing problems was a sign of weakness. They just didn’t talk about their feelings.

Epstein paid for Jane’s tuition at Professional Children’s School in New York City when she was 17.

The “massages” continued through high school, but finally broke off her relationship with Epstein when she moved to California for an acting job in 2002, at age 22.

Eventually, Jane filed two lawsuits, one against Maxwell and one against the estate of Jeffrey Epstein. She had also spoken to the FBI about Epstein in 2019.

However, she dropped the lawsuits after she received $5 million from the Jeffrey Epstein Victim’s Fund. (Her net was $2.9 million.)

Under cross-examination, Laura Menninger asked, “You waited 20 years to present your complaints to law enforcement, correct?” Jane replied, “Correct.”

Menninger confirmed that Epstein was dead and when Jane spoke to the FBI, she was accompanied by two personal injury attorneys.

Menninger attempted to find inconsistencies in Jane’s testimony but was interrupted by a constant stream of objections from the prosecution, most of which were sustained, making the last hour of the day a series of starts and stops while the objections were debated.

Once again, Nathan ended proceedings at 5:00 p.m. sharp.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/01/2021 – 11:25

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More Police Officers Associated with More Black Homicides Prevented

An interesting article cowritten by a UCLA Public Policy school colleague of mine, Police Force Size and Civilian Race, forthcoming from Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily K. Weisburst and Morgan C. Williams, Jr. (I quote below from the May 4, 2021 draft). I’m not an expert on this subject, but I thought it worth passing along; I’d be glad, of course, to also excerpt and link to any articles that point out flaws in this one.

The background:

While there is now a strong consensus in the academic literature that the number of police officers (McCrary, 2002; Evans and Owens, 2007; Chalfin and McCrary, 2018; Mello, 2019; Weisburst, 2019b) combined with their presence and visibility (Sherman and Weisburd, 1995; Di Tella and Schargrodsky, 2004; Klick and Tabarrok, 2005; Braga et al., 2014; MacDonald et al., 2016; Weisburd, 2016) reduces crime, whether the effect of additional law enforcement is heterogeneous across Black and white Americans remains a surprisingly open question…. Using national data on police employment for a sample of 242 large U.S. cities over a 38-year period, this research provides novel evidence on the racial differences in public safety returns to law enforcement expansion in the United States….

The homicide findings:

We find that each additional police officer hired abates between 0.06 and 0.1 homicides [per year] …. The estimates suggest that investments in police manpower can save a life at a cost of between $1.6 and $2.7 million, far lower than common for accepted estimates of the value of a statistical life which typically exceed $7 million.

Although the total reduction in homicide is roughly equal across Black and white victims, the decline in homicide is twice as large for Black victims in per capita terms. {On a per capita basis, police force expansion has a larger effect on homicide victimization for Black civilians (0.006 − 0.012 homicides per 100,000 population [for each officer per year]) than for white civilians (0.002 − 0.008 homicides per 100,000 population). The per capita racial disparity in the effect of police force size on homicide victimization is significant … (p < 0.001).}

{On average, individuals living in the cities in our sample are 24% non-Hispanic Black, 19% Hispanic, and 49% non-Hispanic white…. In an average city-year in our data, there are 244 homicide victims, of which 138 (57%) are non- Hispanic Black and 64 (26%) are non-Hispanic white. Nationally, approximately half of homicide victims are Black—the proportion in our sample is slightly higher as we focus on large cities. In per capita terms, Black residents are approximately 4 times as likely to be the victim of a homicide compared to white residents….}

The quality of life arrest findings:

Next, we consider the extent to which investments in police manpower expand civilian interactions with the criminal justice system, or create “net widening” effects, focusing on differences by race in police enforcement activity. Here, we find that investments in police manpower lead to larger total numbers of low-level “quality of life” arrests, with each additional officer making 7-22 new arrests. These increases are driven by an increase in arrests for liquor violation and drug possession, with effects that imply that increases in these types of arrests are 2.5-3 times larger for Black civilians.

{[W]hile the racial disparity that we estimate is not significant at conventional levels, this test is likely conservative since, due to arrest data limitations, Hispanic arrestees are overwhelmingly classified as white for this outcome. As research indicates important Hispanic-white disparities with respect to policing outcomes (Sanga, 2009), the white estimate which includes Hispanic arrestees estimate is likely to be larger than the non-Hispanic white estimate.}

{To the extent that policymakers conclude that the costs of making large numbers of arrests for “quality of life” offenses outweigh the potential public safety benefits, we note that a number of different avenues for reform could address racial disparities in the burdens of police enforcement. Consistent with our finding that the racially disparate effects of investments in police manpower are particularly large for drug possession arrests, the decriminalization of the possession of small amounts of drugs may be a particularly promising avenue for reducing racial disparities.}

And the findings on serious “index crimes” (“murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, grand larceny and motor vehicle theft”):

At the same time, we find that arrests for the most serious offenses (so-called “index crimes”) fall with investments police manpower. {Consistent with the prior literature (Evans and Owens, 2007; Kaplan and Chalfin, 2019; Weisburst, 2019b), we find that each police officer abates approximately 18-24 index crimes, an estimate which implies an elasticity of index crimes with respect to police is approximately -1.1. Since larger police forces lead to reductions in index crimes, the decline in index crime arrests that we observe suggests that larger police forces reduce serious crime primarily through deterrence rather than by arresting and incapacitating additional offenders (Nagin, 2013; Chalfin and McCrary, 2017; Kaplan and Chalfin, 2019).}

On a per capita basis, the decline in index crime arrests that we observe is between 4-6 times greater for arrests involving Black suspects. This finding is consistent with the idea that police hiring has the potential to create a “double dividend” (Bratton, 2011; Cook and Ludwig, 2011; Durlauf and Nagin, 2011) for both Black and white Americans by generating reductions in both crime and arrests for serious offenses.

The authors’ remarks on the broader policy implications:

Our estimates capture the historical opportunity cost of policing, by including controls that hold municipal spending fixed. In this vein, our results suggest that “de-funding” the police could result in more homicides, especially among Black victims.

Of course, reducing funding for police could allow increased funding for other alternatives. An array of high-quality research suggests that crime can, in certain contexts, be reduced through methods other than policing or its by-product, incarceration. Among the many alternatives to police for which there is promising evidence are place-based crime control strategies such as increasing the availability of trees and green space (Branas et al., 2011), restoring vacant lots (Branas et al., 2016, 2018; Moyer et al., 2019), public-private partnerships (Cook and MacDonald, 2011), street lighting (Doleac and Sanders, 2015; Chalfin et al., 2019), and reducing physical disorder (Sampson and Raudenbush, 2001; Keizer et al., 2008). There is also evidence that social service-based strategies such as summer jobs for disadvantaged youth (Heller, 2014; Gelber et al., 2016; Davis and Heller, 2017), cognitive behavioral therapy (Blattman et al., 2017; Heller et al., 2017), mental health treatment (Deza et al., 2020; Jácome, 2020) and local non- profits more generally (Sharkey et al., 2017) can have important crime-reducing effects. While social service interventions are often difficult to scale (Mofiitt, 2006; Ludwig et al., 2011), the increasing number of studies which show that there are ways to reduce crime outside the deterrence channels of the traditional model of Becker (1968) is encouraging.

Whether communities should invest less in law enforcement and more in alternative strategies remains an open question, as such a material change in our society’s approach to public safety has yet to be implemented at scale. Our research focuses on one crucial aspect of this policy debate—the effect of reducing police employment—an outcome which would likely result if proposals to reduce funding for municipal police departments are adopted in the future. This study provides an estimate of the historical trade-offs of investments in law enforcement and, critically, the resulting implications for communities of color.

To be sure, hiring police officers might also increase the number of blacks killed by police officers; the study notes that it “exclude[s] homicides committed in prisons or jails as well as felons killed in the commission of a crime as these are likely to fall under the legal definition of justifiable homicide” (and of course it’s possible that some of the “felons killed in the commission of a crime” were actually innocent, or at least innocent of any serious crime). It’s also possible that it might decrease that number, for instance by reducing the number of arrests for the serious index offenses, which may be especially likely to lead to police shootings.

But in any event, this feature is unlikely to affect the overall results of this study: The total number of blacks killed by police officers in 2020 was 241 (as compared to 457 whites), for a national average of about 0.5 per 100,000 population. Even if such shootings were positively correlated with additional police officers, that correlation is likely to be swamped by the 0.006-0.012 per 100,000 per police officer decline in homicides that the study observes. (Note that the total number of black murder victims in the U.S. was 9,913, as compared to 7,029 whites.)

 

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Controversial Researcher Driven from Campus at Old Dominion University

Professor Allyn Walker was a sociologist at Old Dominion University. Walker’s research included “minor attracted individuals,” which was the topic of Walker’s new book recently published by a well-respected university press. When Walker’s research came to public attention, it generated immediate controversy, including threats against Walker and the campus and calls for Walker’s immediate termination. The university initially defended its commitment to academic freedom, but soon placed Walker on administrative leave. Walker has now resigned from the faculty.

Cathy Young has recently called “the Allyn Walker story is a test case for both progressives and conservatives,” and she’s right. Old Dominion seems to have failed its test.

When Walker was suspended, the Academic Freedom Alliance warned Old Dominion University that it was caving under pressure and sending a chilling message to every member of the faculty who might be engaged in controversial research. Unfortunately, the university continued down that path and allowed the mob to drive a professor from the campus. Although the Walker case has now been resolved with the professor’s departure from campus, the issues raised by the controversy remain all too relevant.

The AFA has now released publicly the letter that it sent to the administration of ODU. As always, the AFA is not concerned with the substance or merits of a professor’s work or ideas but with the principle that universities should be places that tolerate controversial ideas and that allow free inquiry and debate, not public opinion or political pressure, to separate error from truth. Universities should not allow threats and intimidation to short-circuit that process of critical inquiry and should not allow ideas to be suppressed and scholars defenestrated simply because they are perceived to be heretical or even dangerous.

From the letter:

It cannot be consistent with academic freedom for a university to cave in to hostile reaction on and off campus to a professor’s scholarly work. The fact that students or members of the public might be offended or disturbed by a professor’s research agenda, arguments or terminology is no basis for sanctioning the professor. The fact that they might express their outrage by making threats to the professor or to the campus only heightens the responsibility of the university to ensure that the professor is capable of continuing to perform their academic duties unmolested. For a university to validate such a “heckler’s veto” by suspending rather than protecting the faculty member will only encourage such campaigns of threats and intimidation. There are far more appropriate steps for a university to take in response to credible threats of violence or disruption that would be compatible with rather than contrary to academic freedom and the university has a responsibility to take such steps.

. . .

There is no doubt that the questions being examined by Professor Walker are important ones. Academia should be a place where such difficult questions can be boldly and honestly investigated. If a scholar’s analysis is mistaken, then it should be rebutted or ignored. But the scholar should not be driven from campus for daring to ask such difficult questions or for reaching the wrong or unpopular answers.

Read the whole thing here.

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Controversial Researcher Driven from Campus at Old Dominion University

Professor Allyn Walker was a sociologist at Old Dominion University. Walker’s research included “minor attracted individuals,” which was the topic of Walker’s new book recently published by a well-respected university press. When Walker’s research came to public attention, it generated immediate controversy, including threats against Walker and the campus and calls for Walker’s immediate termination. The university initially defended its commitment to academic freedom, but soon placed Walker on administrative leave. Walker has now resigned from the faculty.

Cathy Young has recently called “the Allyn Walker story is a test case for both progressives and conservatives,” and she’s right. Old Dominion seems to have failed its test.

When Walker was suspended, the Academic Freedom Alliance warned Old Dominion University that it was caving under pressure and sending a chilling message to every member of the faculty who might be engaged in controversial research. Unfortunately, the university continued down that path and allowed the mob to drive a professor from the campus. Although the Walker case has now been resolved with the professor’s departure from campus, the issues raised by the controversy remain all too relevant.

The AFA has now released publicly the letter that it sent to the administration of ODU. As always, the AFA is not concerned with the substance or merits of a professor’s work or ideas but with the principle that universities should be places that tolerate controversial ideas and that allow free inquiry and debate, not public opinion or political pressure, to separate error from truth. Universities should not allow threats and intimidation to short-circuit that process of critical inquiry and should not allow ideas to be suppressed and scholars defenestrated simply because they are perceived to be heretical or even dangerous.

From the letter:

It cannot be consistent with academic freedom for a university to cave in to hostile reaction on and off campus to a professor’s scholarly work. The fact that students or members of the public might be offended or disturbed by a professor’s research agenda, arguments or terminology is no basis for sanctioning the professor. The fact that they might express their outrage by making threats to the professor or to the campus only heightens the responsibility of the university to ensure that the professor is capable of continuing to perform their academic duties unmolested. For a university to validate such a “heckler’s veto” by suspending rather than protecting the faculty member will only encourage such campaigns of threats and intimidation. There are far more appropriate steps for a university to take in response to credible threats of violence or disruption that would be compatible with rather than contrary to academic freedom and the university has a responsibility to take such steps.

. . .

There is no doubt that the questions being examined by Professor Walker are important ones. Academia should be a place where such difficult questions can be boldly and honestly investigated. If a scholar’s analysis is mistaken, then it should be rebutted or ignored. But the scholar should not be driven from campus for daring to ask such difficult questions or for reaching the wrong or unpopular answers.

Read the whole thing here.

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Police Bodycam Footage Of MSNBC ‘Producer’ Who Tailed Rittenhouse Jury Way Worse Than Reported

Police Bodycam Footage Of MSNBC ‘Producer’ Who Tailed Rittenhouse Jury Way Worse Than Reported

Less than two weeks ago MSNBC was banned from the Kyle Rittenhouse trial after James Morrison, an employee claiming to be a producer, was busted running a red light while tailing the jury van.

 The network issued a carefully worded apology – that a ‘freelancer’ had simply ‘received a traffic citation’ and that he ‘never contacted or intended to contact the jurors during deliberations.”

“We regret the incident and will fully cooperate with the authorities on any investigation.”

Now, police bodycam footage from the incident reveals that the network was doing exactly what we thought: spying on the jury.

Officer: Were you following a vehicle?

Morrison: I was trying to see – I was being called by New York, going, “maybe, we need to follow. I was tryin’ ta…

Officer: You were trying to what?

Morrison: Just do what they told me to do.

Officer: New York told you to follow a vehicle?

Morrison: Yes.

The video then fast forwards to Morrison handing his phone to the officer so he could speak with NBC News’ booking producer Irene Byon.

The officer asks Byon why the network ‘has a reporter following vehicles,’ to which she replies: “We, we, we were just trying to respectfully… just trying to see if it’s possible to, um, find any leads about, um, about the case, and so we were just keeping our distance just to see where people involved in the trial, um, are positioned. By no means are we trying to get in contact with any of the jury members or whoever’s in the car, we just were, um, trying to see where, um, where key players in the trial may be at.”

When the officer asks if she knew it was the jury, Byon replied: “We just have our people positioned in different areas of the courthouse to, um, to see if anyone like, um, would be able to, um, in different areas -“

Watch:

Shortly after the call, Irene nuked her Twitter and LinkedIn accounts… 

Earlier last month, a self-described ‘honorary nephew of George Floyd’ identified as Cortez Rice posted a disturbing video threatening to doxx Rittenhouse jurors if they don’t return a guilty verdict. 

Surely the network can explain why this wasn’t jury intimidation…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/01/2021 – 11:05

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A “Witch Hunt” at the University of Illinois at Chicago

Nearly a year ago, University of Illinois at Chicago law professor Jason Kilborn came under criticism from students, administrators and colleagues for including a hypothetical on his civil procedure exam involving an individual telling an investigating lawyer that former co-workers “expressed their anger at Plaintiff, calling her a “n____” and “b____” (profane expressions for African Americans and women) and vowed to get rid of her.” Once complaints surfaced, Kilborn apologized but the controversy and allegations only grew. Students eventually brought in Jesse Jackson to bolster their demands that Kilborn be fired. Kilborn was suspended and investigated. He eventually reached a settlement with the university that would allow him to return to his teaching duties, but the university has subsequently reneged on that agreement. It continues to single him out for opprobrium, discipline, and reeducation. The chancellor of UIC has now dug in his heels on the matter. Northwestern University law professor Andy Koppelman has written about this case from the beginning and has appropriately decried the university’s actions as a “witch hunt.”

The Academic Freedom Alliance has released the letter that it sent to law school dean at UIC. From the letter:

For the University of Illinois at Chicago to retaliate against and sanction Professor Kilborn for constitutionally and contractually protected classroom speech would be a grave violation of academic freedom. The Academic Freedom Alliance stands firmly behind Professor Kilborn in this matter, calls on the University of Illinois at Chicago to adhere to its academic freedom principles and to abandon any conditions on his full return to his academic duties, and to publicly and emphatically reaffirm that professors at the university are free to conduct classroom discussions and to draft class exams that engage relevant but controversial language and materials.

Read the whole thing here.

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TransitoRIP: “In Just A Few Days, The Market Was Treated With Two Big Shocks”

TransitoRIP: “In Just A Few Days, The Market Was Treated With Two Big Shocks”

By Michael Every of Rabobank

TransitoRIP

In a matter of just a few days, the market has been treated with two big shocks. Last Friday, it was the omicron scare that got markets re-pricing the risks of more restrictions and hence a slowdown for the global economy. But yesterday it was Fed Chair Powell, who added fuel to the fire. In a testimony before the Senate Banking Committee he pledged to bury the term “transitory” and instead recommends Fed policy makers to consider explaining more clearly what the Fed thinks/means when it is talking about inflation. Or was Powell running out of dollar bills to put in the Atlanta Fed’s swear jar? We wonder if Powell now still owes Bostic a dollar for using the word while retiring it.

More importantly, a lot of folks will now surely be looking forward to know what the Fed really thinks! For example, did Powell mean to say that the effects of the temporary price rises will remain and not fade after a while? That would be more dovish than meaning inflation has reached a higher ‘plateau’.

As a corollary of the acknowledgment that inflation is, at least, not transitory, the Fed Chair suggested that it would be appropriate to “consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases, which we actually announced at the November meeting, perhaps a few months sooner.” That remark shook markets, after they were lulled into a bit of a slumber a day earlier, when Powell suggested that omicron posed downside risks to the Fed’s employment mandate, and more general uncertainty about the inflation outlook. Clearly, the Fed is now moving closer to an inflation fighting mode as it has become more concerned about inflation in recent months.

Does this mean that an accelerated taper is now all but a given? Or did Powell make a BoE-like faux pas, where it turns out in December that the FOMC does not want to follow through with this faster taper? The market surely seems to think the former. Does that then leave the risk that the Fed is embarking on a policy error by tightening into a potential economic slowdown?

Against the backdrop of a market that was still trading the omicron story one can imagine that there was suddenly a lot of sigma. EUR/USD fell almost 1 big figure on the back of Powell’s comments, but more noteworthy even was the strong risk-off reaction in asset markets, with US equity markets down nearly 2% and a flattening Treasury curve. 10y yields were down 5bp on the day, whilst the yield on the 2y note rose 5bp. In fact, the Treasury curve reached its flattest level since the onset of the pandemic. Concerns expressed by Moderna executives on the efficacy of the vaccine on the new strain may have played a role here as well, although  a BioNTech co-founder said that shots may still be quite effective. Uncertainty remains high in any case.

Despite the change of tack at the Fed and elevated uncertainty, a broad based reaction in emerging market currencies failed to materialize. Indeed, some EM currencies actually performed well, such as India’s rupee, which has benefited from the decline in oil prices. Moreover, a good number of Asian economies have been reporting stronger manufacturing activity in PMI surveys (although China’s Caixin survey for November disappointed), which is seen as a sign that supply-bottlenecks have started to ease, albeit gradually. This obviously does not include the potential impact of the potential omicron wave.

The Turkish lira, though, is a whole different story. President Erdogan seems to be doubling down on his promise that rate cuts will bring rampant inflation to an end and thereby more stability in the currency. In an interview with TRT yesterday he also argued that the country needs to rid itself of “hot money” from foreign investors and that the country should not try to attract foreign funding. Market participants still think otherwise and have sent the Turkish lira into a tail-spin. Yesterday TRY lost another 5% against the dollar, potentially aggravating the inflation situation, which is already running at four times the official target of 5%. What is interesting, though, is that the country’s current account balance (and FX reserves) have been steadily improving since early 2020. Not fighting inflation does appear to have boosted the country’s competitive position. But the ultimate cost of its policy choices could be significant.

Talking about inflation, the Eurozone preliminary estimate jumped by a hefty 0.8%-points to 4.9%, making this one of the biggest upside surprises in recent history. And – for good measure – this is also more than twice the central bank’s long-term target. The core estimate rose by no less than 0.6%-points. Consensus was far off in both cases, although German data – released the other day, had already given market participants a pre-warning. The biggest single contributor was, unsurprisingly, energy, with a 0.4%-points contribution to that 0.8%. October and November were the months where the gas and electricity price hikes really kicked in. However, services provided another 0.24%-points, although the data from Germany had already indicated that the recreation and culture sector – which can be very volatile due to seasonal effects – was probably the main culprit. Food and non-energy industrial goods both added 0.1%-points. In other words, this was a fairly broad-based increase in prices. Full stop.

Will this challenge the ECB’s ‘transitory’ story as well come the December meeting? We still expect the Council to hold on to this line of reasoning, but even the Bank of Japan may be throwing in the towel.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/01/2021 – 10:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3d7Zhsv Tyler Durden

WTI Slips After US Crude Production Rise, Big Product Inventory Builds

WTI Slips After US Crude Production Rise, Big Product Inventory Builds

After yesterday’s plunge, crude prices rebounded overnight after a modest API draw, helped by a Goldman report putting the plunge in context as being dramatically overdone. OPEC+ uncertainty is weighing on prices this morning however ahead of today’s official inventory/production data.

OPEC+ has “erred on the side of caution since it began slowly boosting supplies,” said Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates.

A potential decision to shelve January’s planned increase and keep quotas flat “comports with its cautious approach.”

While OPEC+ and the omicron variant dominating the market, there is also another wildcard in the background – the Iranian nuclear deal. Diplomats are working on a draft agreement, state-run Press TV reported, but there was little sign of an imminent deal after talks resumed on Monday. 

DOE

  • Crude -909k (-1.45mm exp, -700k API)

  • Cushing +1.159mm

  • Gasoline +4.059mm – biggest build since June

  • Distillates +2.16mm – biggest build since July

A smaller than expected crude draw and major product builds are not what the bullsih doctor ordered…

Source: Bloomberg

Cushing stocks continue to hover near multi-year lows (anything below 30m bbls is considered significantly low) but rose for the 3rd straight week (the longest streak since August)…

Source: Bloomberg

Many eyes were on gasoline inventories and demand to gauge the state of consumption over last week’s Thanksgiving holiday. It’s typically a major travel season, particularly driving. For many Americans, it would be the first time for air travel before the pandemic triggered widespread restrictions. Gasoline demand for Thanksgiving week dropped significantly, it weakest level since 2012 (ex- COVID)

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production rose to its highest since May 2020, amid the ongoing rise in rig counts…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering between $68 and $69 ahead of the official print and slipped lower after the data…

Although oil remains in backwardation – a bullish structure with near-term contracts trading above later-dated ones – differentials have narrowed.

The question is, will gas prices at the pump follow wholesale and crude prices, or will the latter rebound before the supply chain can catch down…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/01/2021 – 10:39

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3I9aS92 Tyler Durden

A “Witch Hunt” at the University of Illinois at Chicago

Nearly a year ago, University of Illinois at Chicago law professor Jason Kilborn came under criticism from students, administrators and colleagues for including a hypothetical on his civil procedure exam involving an individual telling an investigating lawyer that former co-workers “expressed their anger at Plaintiff, calling her a “n____” and “b____” (profane expressions for African Americans and women) and vowed to get rid of her.” Once complaints surfaced, Kilborn apologized but the controversy and allegations only grew. Students eventually brought in Jesse Jackson to bolster their demands that Kilborn be fired. Kilborn was suspended and investigated. He eventually reached a settlement with the university that would allow him to return to his teaching duties, but the university has subsequently reneged on that agreement. It continues to single him out for opprobrium, discipline, and reeducation. The chancellor of UIC has now dug in his heels on the matter. Northwestern University law professor Andy Koppelman has written about this case from the beginning and has appropriately decried the university’s actions as a “witch hunt.”

The Academic Freedom Alliance has released the letter that it sent to law school dean at UIC. From the letter:

For the University of Illinois at Chicago to retaliate against and sanction Professor Kilborn for constitutionally and contractually protected classroom speech would be a grave violation of academic freedom. The Academic Freedom Alliance stands firmly behind Professor Kilborn in this matter, calls on the University of Illinois at Chicago to adhere to its academic freedom principles and to abandon any conditions on his full return to his academic duties, and to publicly and emphatically reaffirm that professors at the university are free to conduct classroom discussions and to draft class exams that engage relevant but controversial language and materials.

Read the whole thing here.

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Biden Admin Unleashes Omicron Dragnet: CDC Demands Airlines Hand Over Names Of All Southern African Passengers

Biden Admin Unleashes Omicron Dragnet: CDC Demands Airlines Hand Over Names Of All Southern African Passengers

We can almost feel the xenophobia intensifying.

As we wait for President Biden to confirm the new travel restrictions that have been reported Tuesday and Wednesday (the president is expected to announce them on Thursday) Reuters reported Wednesday morning that it has seen a copy of a letter from the CDC asking airlines to turn over the names of all passengers who traveled to the US from any of the southern African nations.

Once it has all the names, the CDC plans to turn them over to state and local public health departments. These authorities may then require these travelers to be retested, or perhaps even ask them to quarantine – measures they intend to enforce. Keep in mind, the US still hasn’t confirmed a single case of omicron.

The south African countries in the blue ring believed to pose the highest risk of infection…despite the fact that the UK has reported the highest number of confirmed omicron cases with 22, while the Netherlands has confirmed cases of omicron stretching back at least two weeks ago. Evidence suggests the new variant has likely already gone global.

This dichotomy between how the world is treating southern African countries vs. developed nations like the UK is making some people increasingly uncomfortable.

Others have posited that the EU and US are using omicron as an excuse to tighten restrictions on the border and on society and businesses amid the EU’s most recent resurgence in cases.

Some 56 countries were reportedly implementing travel measures to guard against Omicron as of Nov. 28, the WHO said, and WHO head Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said he was concerned that several member states were “introducing blunt, blanket measures”, which “will only worsen inequities”.

In Germany, which is battling a surge in COVID cases and deaths, recently announced that four fully vaccinated people had tested positive for omicron in the south, but they had only moderate symptoms.

The CDC lists about 80 foreign destinations as “Level Four” countries, the highest level of COVID transmissibility. The US discourages Americans from traveling to those destinations, and also would prefer if people who live in those countries don’t travel to the US right now.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/01/2021 – 10:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3loQYNw Tyler Durden