Month: January 2022

In yet further signs that Russia’s troop build-up near Ukraine has resulted in significant cracks in the NATO alliance, as days ago leading European countries very visibly broke with the more hawkish agenda of the US, UK, and some Baltic allies (opting instead for diplomacy as opposed to constantly escalating confrontational rhetoric) – Latvia is going on the attack, lashing out at Germany for its seemingly ‘compromised’ relations with Russia and China.

Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks slammed Germany’s “immoral and hypocritical” relationship with Russia and China, accusing Berlin of driving a wedge between eastern and western Europe, at a time that unity is paramount. “It’s immoral and hypocritical. It’s driving a division line between west and east in Europe,” Pabriks said in the Financial Times interview published Friday.

“How are you acting yourself when it comes to Lithuania, Russia, China?” Pabriks asked hypothetically of Germany. He answered his own question: “It’s immoral and hypocritical. It’s driving a division line between west and east in Europe.”

“Germans forgot already that Americans were granting their security in the Cold War,” the defense minister added. “But they should [remember]. It’s their moral duty.” The suggestion was that Germany should stay lockstep with Washington on the issue of Russia’s ‘threat’ to NATO’s “eastern flank”. 

“European security cannot be done without a German leading role. At this moment, when we’re looking at how they’re acting on European defense and NATO, the readiness of the Bundeswehr, the hesitance to use military force, it’s absurd for the current times,” Pabriks described.

Berlin starting last week made it clear that German weapons would never be transferred to Ukraine, and even forbade eastern European allies from making the transfers, instead merely sending a few thousand helmets. Some European officials voiced that the non-lethal shipment was almost an insult, at a moment the UK and US are ramping up anti-tank missile deliveries to Ukraine’s army.

So far, the worst warning issued to Moscow came from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who while under pressure said that in the event Russia invades Ukraine, halting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline would be up for discussion.

That’s the way to go, Latvia! Let’s turn NATO and the EU into a circular firing squad. That will teach Putin and Xi a lesson. Right? “Latvia slams Germany’s ‘immoral’ relationship with Russia and China” https://t.co/r6JPa6zujk via @FT (sarcasm tweet) By the way: What was 16+1?

— Reinhard Bütikofer (@bueti) January 28, 2022

And yet it now appears that the NS2 Russia-to-Germany pipeline which bypasses Ukraine and eastern Europe altogether is poised to receive full certification and begin supplying natural gas. Germany has also been seen as ‘soft’ on China…

As Politico reported, “Officials said Scholz’s office feared the EU was becoming too aggressive in its defense of Lithuania against Beijing’s economic coercion. The chancellery has been ‘calling everyone who speaks German in the [European] Commission’ to tone down the pressure on China, after France last week said Beijing had gone too far with its attacks on the single market, one of the officials said.”

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

The Fed has just released its first public consultation paper on a dollar-based central bank digital currency. For many, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are a means of heading off private sector cryptos, but coincidentally the prices of bitcoin and others have collapsed, losing half their value since early November.

The CBDC proposition is being sold to us by the central banks as keeping up with the times and taking advantage of the opportunities presented by new technologies to evolve payment systems.

The Bank for International Settlements has been coordinating research into CBDCs, and this article gives a brief description of how the BIS and its committee members sees them evolving. It is early days, and there are several important issues yet to be tackled, such as will CBDCs pay interest, and what will be the likely reaction of commercial banks to seeing central banks muscle in on their territory.

There are also two separate CBDC functions to consider. There is retail, whereby individuals have direct access to their central bank as counterparty, and a wholesale function for financial intermediaries for international settlement.

Whether CBDCs will come into existence is doubtful. To have credibility, their introduction will have to be coordinated at G20 level, and they are unlikely to be widely issued before the end of the decade. That will probably be too late to save the world from a developing financial and monetary crisis which threatens to change everything. Furthermore, the Americans will need to be convinced that their dollar hegemony will not be compromised. And what will almost certainly stop it is the powerful US banking lobby, likely to remind politicians presented with the necessary legislation, that a political survivor is one who once bought, stays bought.

Introduction

This month, the credibility of cryptocurrencies came into question as the price of bitcoin and those of its imitators continued to fall heavily. Bitcoin has halved from its peak, which was only two months ago.

It leaves everyone involved with headaches. As the private sector replacement for failing fiat currencies, the credibility of bitcoin may have suffered a mortal blow, with many observers now comparing it not in the context of rapidly expanding quantities of fiat, but with the wilder tech stocks which coincidentally have taken a battering as well. But a few state actors on the fringes have become strong supporters, notably El Salvador.

As El Salvador hoovers up bitcoin, there are other governments seeking to ban or to restrict them. While appearing to be keen to develop its own digital currency, the Russian central bank recently proposed restrictions on crypto trading — admittedly this is an ongoing debate. China, being the ultimate authoritarian state, banned crypto exchanges long ago, and is already testing its own state-sponsored digital currency.

Other governments are treading more carefully, aware that the formally $3 trillion (now $2 trillion) market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies reflects considerable private sector wealth in their own jurisdictions. Surely, major central banks would love to follow the Russians and Chinese in banning bitcoin and its imitators. But instead of a full-frontal attack on distributed ledgers and the threat they mount to their fiat currencies, major governments everywhere appear to be deploying a strategy of gradual strangulation, hoping the crypto phenomenon will subside. After all, currency is the preserve of the state and other than mavericks like El Salvador, who wants a private sector alternative?

This is the statist’s view. But just in case, research is being conducted into central bank digital currencies — CBDCs. Cynics can anticipate how the relationship between private sector distributed ledgers and a centralised state version will evolve. As the development of national CBDCs progresses, increasing restrictions on bitcoin and other rivals will be introduced. There is one thing that governments and central banks cannot abide, and that is private sector rivals to their currency monopolies.

Research into the development of CBDCs is being coordinated by a committee at the Bank for International Settlements, led by the major central banks (with the notable exception of the Peoples Bank of China) and the BIS itself. All other central banks can expect to benefit from the project and follow its recommendations.

Only last week, the US Fed issued the first in what promises to be a series of consultation papers on a US CBDC. The importance of the Fed’s strategic approach is paramount, since the dollar is the big daddy of all currencies through which America controls the world. A CBDC replacement must not threaten the dollar’s hegemony. If it does, then we can assume the whole CBDC concept will end up being stillborn.

What is a CBDC?

A CBDC is a digital form of central bank money that is different from balances in traditional reserve or settlement accounts. It is a digital payment instrument, denominated in the national unit of account and is a direct liability of the central bank.

Two separate functions have been identified. There is a general purpose, or retail function, whereby a CBDC is an alternative to currency cash and commercial bank deposit money. And there is a wholesale function for use between financial intermediaries, incorporating cross-border settlements. Figure 1 above illustrates the flows of these two different functions.

The adoption of a CBDC requires a central bank to upgrade their banking systems to deal with tens or even hundreds of millions of depositors and businesses — a task whose sheer scale and technological challenges should not be underestimated.

Figure 2 illustrates the relationship between a retail CBDC and existing currency liabilities.

CBDCs are intended to be an addition to current settlement systems and currency quantities. Declining use of banknotes and coins, which are a bearer form of central bank liability and a direct claim on it, is being claimed as a justification for a new electronic settlement medium with the same currency standing in the form of a retail CBDC.

The widespread use of debit cards has blurred the distinction between the cash notes and coins issued by a central bank, and deposit money which is a liability of commercial banks. Users of currency in retail transactions are generally unaware of the distinction, and bank regulators believe that their oversight provides justification for the seamless operation between these different risk categories.

Nevertheless, central banks are aware of the potential disruption a CBDC might cause to existing settlement systems, and for this reason amongst others are certain to proceed cautiously.

The wholesale function of a CBDC is a different one to being purely an alternative to bank notes, being more attuned to reserves on a central bank’s balance sheet. If a wholesale CBDC is introduced it will be with the objective of extending a central bank’s function into cross-border settlements, with the intention of making them more efficient with lower transaction fees. That will require the same operational and legal standards between different CBDCs, necessitating international cooperation in the way they are set up — hence the likely future role for the BIS, which already sets out the global regulatory framework under the Basel Committee to which commercial banks must adhere.

Undoubtedly, cross-border cooperation in CBDCs is a multiyear project. All that the BIS committee can do for now is come up with guidelines to which individual central banks can make long term plans, so that different CBDCs might eventually be integrated into a global settlement system. This is also behind an initial phase of designing CBDCs for retail, or domestic use with a view to them being compatible with wholesale use.

The benefit of a retail CBDC for the state

Augustin Carstens, General Manager at the Bank for International Settlements made the following comments in an IMF sponsored video about central bank digital currencies:

“We intend to establish the equivalence with cash, but there is a huge difference there. For example, with cash we don’t know who is using a $100 bill today, we don’t know who is using a MX$1,000 bill today.

A key difference with a CBDC is that a central bank will have absolute control under the rules and regulations that will determine the use of that expression of central bank liability, and we will have the technology to enforce that. Those two issues are extremely important and make a huge difference with respect to what cash is.”

Clearly, the attraction to Carstens is that CBDCs offer the potential for central banks to increase their controls over how currency is used, control not only over markets and economies, but over individuals and businesses. Carstens seems completely unfazed by the issues for personal liberty. However, Figure 1 above suggests there is an option of token based CBDCs to provide anonymity. But given all central banks’ desire for control to minimise criminal transactions and tax evasion, it is unlikely that anonymity will be preserved. And for any jurisdiction where personal freedom might be regarded as important, there’s always the pull of international conformity to ensure that in the name of preventing international fraud and tax evasion personal freedom cannot be protected.

The issue of individual freedom to buy and sell goods and services with the state being automatically informed of every transaction is a huge departure from using banknotes and coin. This could become an impediment to the widespread adoption and success of a retail CBDC in some countries. But for individuals there may be no option if retail CBDCs become the pretext to do away with cash entirely.

Furthermore, while some central banks will be wary of a CBDC interfering with the implementation of monetary policy, other central banks have expressed the desire to use them to extend control over economic outcomes. For example, by deploying CBDCs with an expiry date beyond which they become worthless, it would enable a central bank to accelerate capital spending, employment expansion, or consumer demand in favoured industries, such as green energy, or other sectors deemed worthy of state promotion and protection.

The application of positive and negative interest rates selectively on retail CBDCs might be seen as a further tool for enhancing monetary policies by directing capital investment and economic management. This, surely, is one of several possibilities that will excite the planners as CBDC concepts develop.

That is in the future. For now, the CBDC concept needs to be consistent with promoting improved settlement options. Through commercial bank reserves, central banks supply the ultimate backstop for the banking system, and in respect of settlements generally, they offer guarantees of safety, integrity and access to currency and deposits. Central banks are also tasked with providing sufficient liquidity to ensure the smooth workings of the payments system, ultimately as the lender of last resort. Through their banking regulation, central banks oversee the integrity and efficiency of their national settlement systems.

The introduction of a CBDC must not undermine these functions but be seen to enhance them.

The consequences for commercial banks

One of the problems that is yet to be addressed is the effect of an introduction of retail CBDCs on bank deposits. The origin of bank deposits is always loan creation, acting as the double-entry bookkeeping liability counterpart of bank credit recorded on bank balance sheets as assets. As borrowers draw down their loans to make payments, deposits received by their payees are distributed throughout the banking network, and rebalancing is achieved through wholesale interbank markets.

A new class of central bank liability to be used for electronic settlements risks draining the commercial banking network of deposit money that would otherwise be recycled between them. And while it is tempting to think that deposits at the larger banks are likely to be safe, there will be many smaller ones around the world that could face deposit runs into the relative safety of a CBDC.

The effect of deposit flight into central banks from highly leveraged commercial banking systems, particularly the euro system and the Japanese sector, could be catastrophic. Both sport asset to equity ratios of over twenty times on average with some banks even more highly geared, so a shift of less than 5% of their deposits could tip them into crisis.

Furthermore, for bank depositors the convenience of transferring deposits electronically and immediately for a CBDC without the hassle of queuing up for cash which a bank refuses to release in quantity could turn a bank liquidity crisis into an intraday or overnight event.

For this reason alone, a CBDC giving access to the public without hinderance seems unlikely. Furthermore, when commercial bankers are presented with a CBDC scheme, they are likely to oppose it strongly because of the threat to their customer deposits. This is even likely to be more important to commercial banks than the risk that a CBDC will represent unfair competition with commercial banking, a possibility upon which views are likely to be divided.

In authoritarian regimes, the competition argument might not matter. But in the US, banks are powerful lobbyists paying for politicians’ election spending. It seems likely that their antipathy will become an insurmountable obstacle to the introduction of a dollar CBDC, if proposals get that far.

Practical and political considerations

While some central banks might find there is minimal political opposition, most jurisdictions will require enabling legislation to be passed without which a global CBDC regime cannot proceed. The course of action is probably as follows:

1. With the agreement of the major central banks, the BIS finalises draft proposals for CBDCs to present to finance ministers at a G20 meeting. At the earliest, this initial step will be put before the G20 Summit in 2023 in India. More likely, it will be 2024 or 2025. Bear in mind that Basel 3, which was the response to the 2008—2009 financial crisis, is still not fully implemented more than a decade later.

2. Central banks will want to reassure their legislators that their proposed systems are thoroughly tested, secure and robust before framing the necessary legislation. Testing by pilot schemes could start as early as next year in some cases but given the seriousness of this issue and the bureaucratic nature of the introduction and implementation of government IT systems, and the sheer scale of opening accounts for the entire population and its businesses, it is likely to take some time.

3. The earliest an international agreement for CBDCs on common standards and the necessary legislation passed in the G20 nations and their implementation is unlikely to be before the end of this decade at the earliest, if not well into the 2030s.

To complicate matters, objections could arise from Russia and China. As a G20 member, Russia ploughs its own furrow, with the West periodically threatening to cut it off from SWIFT and imposing other penalties — hardly conducive to international cooperation. China is already testing her version of a CBDC, so is unlikely to conform to a BIS template which does not yet exist. But by far the most serious problem is likely to be with the US.

From remarks on the subject by Jay Powell, the Fed is taking a very cautious line. Earlier this month the Fed issued what promises to be only the first in a series of public consultation papers, and from reading it there emerges an impression of a reluctance to engage with the real issues. A suggested list of twenty questions to be answered makes the point, so that this CBDC plan is likely to be kicked into the long grass.

That the Fed is dragging its heels is obviously a matter of opinion. A crucial issue behind this opinion is the effect of CBDCs on the dollar’s existing hegemony. While the Fed might engage with a retail dollar CBDC, arguing it will offer the prospects of an improved settlement system, we can be reasonably sure that the Treasury will balk at the BIS setting the agenda for a wholesale version of the American currency. For international settlements, the dollar is already under attack from the renminbi and the euro, a rot which the Treasury will be keen to contain.

We cannot guess the outcome of this issue. And there are also the spanners to be thrown into the works by powerful commercial banking interests, which will not want to see their credit creation monopoly threatened because of the drain on their deposits.

The threat to state fiat currencies from bitcoin

That central banks are banding together to provide a viable alternative to bitcoin and its imitators before banning them from being used as media of exchange is a supposition supported by the interests and actions of the central banks. If this is indeed the case, we should not be surprised, given that the monetary authorities have demonstrated that they do not admit to the relationships between money, currency, and credit. They are therefore unable to decide on whether bitcoin fits into any of these categories, and therefore the seriousness of the threat.

To act as the principal media of exchange as a replacement for government fiat, bitcoin must fulfil all these functions. Through millennia, gold has been money without counterparty risk, more recently as the backing for currency substitutes with only small quantities of physical gold actually circulating. In theory, bitcoin in a wallet could fulfil that role of traditional money, backing a currency system based upon it. This backing would also be fundamental to its backing for a new currency, perhaps in the form of an obligation to deliver bitcoin held in custody by a trusted counterparty. Where it will fail is as the medium of credit due to its inflexibility compared with gold.

Besides its physical qualities, gold’s success as money is because the quantity of above ground stocks used as money is flexible and demand for the money function is set by its users (not the state, which is the important distinction from fiat currencies). The quantity of gold circulating as money draws upon reserves used mainly for ornamentation. Consequently, over the centuries there has been remarkable price stability for commodities and products exchanged by those dividing their labour measured in gold.

This is not possible with bitcoin, whose quantity is finite, and if it was to be adopted as money its purchasing power measured in goods would rise inexorably as billions of people build their cash reserves. This would continue after the shock of the collapse of the fiat regime because of the hard limit on bitcoin’s quantity, while the purchasing power of gold and its substitutes can be expected to stabilise.

A borrower of bitcoin investing in production would be faced with repayments of uncertain value measured against his final output, making it impossible to conduct the economic calculations necessary for the investment.

Besides this hurdle the promoters of bitcoin would have to convince most of the inhabitants of this planet that it is the only replacement for fiat currencies when they fail. Unlike the promoters, people dividing their labour are not speculators, only seeking a stable means of exchange. Indeed, the speculators’ motives are to encourage as high a price for bitcoin as possible, which is not the function of money.

It should therefore be obvious that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are incapable of providing a monetary role because of their unsuitability as media of exchange. This being so we can only surmise that cryptocurrencies are little more than a concept which has succeeded in attracting speculation on a scale seen only when currency and credit to inflate it are available in unlimited quantities. In short, the phenomenon is a bubble that eclipses most of those seen hitherto.

As such, cryptocurrencies do not pose a threat to fiat currencies. It is gold the authorities should look out for, and there is no sign of them doing so.

The economic and monetary consequences of CBDCs

It is clear from Augustin Carsten’s comments quoted above that the objective is to use CBDCs to increase state control over how currencies are used. That being the case, personal freedom and free markets will be further suppressed through their introduction. All the evidence is that state-determined economic outcomes are failures. We can explain this simply by pointing out that only acting individuals can take the decisions that lead to economic progress, while government plans always lack the basis of economic calculation.

Instead of providing solutions for failing economic and monetary policies, CBDCs are a continuing move in the same direction. Nowhere in all the literature emanating from the BIS, or in the Fed’s consultation paper, is there any suggestion that an expansion of the quantity of CBDCs will be offset by a contraction in central bank balance sheets or in the quantity of bank credit. The only offset is the declining use of banknotes and coins, which is a minor portion of the circulating currency.

Therefore, CBDCs represent an additional source of inflationary finance, reminding us of the fate of mandats territoriaux in revolutionary France in 1796, when they replaced the assignat which had become virtually worthless. The mandats lasted barely six months. The only material difference is that CBDCs are planned to be issued contemporaneously with existing fiat currencies while they still retain public credibility.

There can be no doubt that the expansion of currency and bank credit since the Lehman crisis in 2008 has instilled in all major states an enhanced dependency on inflationary financing of government spending. Rather than raising taxes or cutting spending, it is far easier to cover their deficits by expanding the media of exchange, and while notionally independent from the political class, central bankers have fully embraced this use of inflation.

But inflation is an invidious tax, eventually realised by those who suffer under it. A lethal combination of the monetary arithmetic that an expansion of currency invokes, together with a loss of all confidence in the integrity of the issuer is always the death knell for fiat currencies. The only question remaining is the time taken for the public to realise that far from its government providing free lunches ad infinitum, they are not only paid for through their taxes but also through currency debasement.

There comes a point where this realisation leads to a widespread revulsion and rejection of the currency, when it then becomes worthless. The best that might be said of CBDCs is that by adding a layer of confusion, the final rejection of government fiat by the public might be delayed briefly. But as the experience of revolutionary France showed, the replacement of one fiat currency with it in another form changes nothing.

Existing currency problems are more immediate than plans for the adoption of CBDCs can possibly allow. In the coming months, a fatal destabilisation of fiat currencies is in prospect as central banks are forced to choose between submitting to the inevitability of interest rates rising to reflect the loss of their currencies’ purchasing power or continuing to provide inflationary finance for their governments. Without doubt, the problem is becoming urgent. Only this week, we have seen the hold fire in the face of rising interest rates, leaving US Treasuries on negative yields of over six per cent, according to official CPI figures.[iv] On an independent estimate of price inflation, negative bond yields for US Treasury debt exceed double that.

Clearly, a consequence of monetary policies is that markets now fail to function. The Eurozone and Japan face the additional difficulty of surmounting negative interest rates as well as negative nominal yields on government bonds. We can only surmise that these extraordinary conditions persist due to the success of central bank propaganda backed by false and misleading statistics, while the financial world is in thrall to the false gods of Keynesianism.

As pointed out above, a further falsity is the belief that cryptocurrencies could become a viable medium of exchange. It is those dividing their labour who decide their medium of exchange, and not a shadow issuer comprised of technology enthusiasts who have achieved no more than create a bubble to end all bubbles. Bitcoin is simply another form of fiat, and as fiat dies, we can expect bitcoin and its imitators to do so as well.

And given the time taken to introduce CBDCs, not only will we be writing a further chapter on extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds over the entire cryptocurrency phenomenon, but we will have found CBDCs to be stillborn.

Just days after UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel joined roughly two dozen other Italian captains of industry for a virtual meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Italian banking executive said during an earnings call Friday morning that Italy’s largest lender had decided to abandon its pursuit of Russian bank Otkritie, blaming the situation in Ukraine.

UniCredit’s pursuit of the deal had been reported earlier this month by Reuters and others. Right off the bat, European regulators (including the ECB) apparently interpreted the news as a sign of disrespect toward NATO, and the central bank reminded UniCredit of the severe economic sanctions that could apply should Putin make a move. A few days ago, Reuters added that plans for a buyout were on the rocks, and that UniCredit was now “unlikely” to pursue the deal with the Moscow-based lender.

Now, UniCredit is reassuring its shareholders that the deal is dead due to the “geopolitical environment”.

“Given the geopolitical environment we decided to withdraw from the data room,” Orcel said Friday.

To be clear: UniCredit’s decision to abandon the deal means it has decided that now is not the time to expand its business in Russia. The Italian lender has been doing business in Russia since 1989 (before the fall of the Soviet Union) and it continues to operate a brisk business in the country.

Given it’s exposure to Russia, UniCredit included a detailed warning about the potential blowback it might face from conflict in Ukraine.

“The negative economic impact is expected to mainly come from a potential energy shock, especially for countries more vulnerable such as Germany, possible tensions in financial markets and, to a lesser extent, through the trade channel,” the bank said.

European banking analysts have warned that any expansion in Russia would threaten UniCredit’s ability to return billions of euros to shareholders by 2024, as management has pledged to do.

As we explained (via Politico) earlier this week, business ties between Italy and Russia have been strong since the Soviet era, going all the way back to the 1960s.

Even from the days of the Cold War, Italy has had unusually tight links with Russia. In the 1960s Fiat produced cars in the Russian town of Tolyatti, named after Italian communist leader Palmiro Togliatti. Eni has also been operating there since the 1960s, while a Pirelli factory received the Soviet Union’s Order of Lenin award in the same decade. “Among European countries, Italy is probably the closest to Russia for economic and cultural ties,” noted Aldo Ferrari, a Russia expert at think tank ISPI and professor at Ca’ Foscari University in Venice.

While Italy has maintained a much warmer relationship with China and Russia than many of its European neighbors to the north, the country’s brief flirtation with an anti-establishment government ended nearly one year ago when Mario Draghi was installed by the country’s elites to implement a “reform” agenda. From that point on, the writing was on the wall for Italian businesses.

In other news, Russia’s Interfax reported Friday morning that Russian gas giant Gazprom is planning to issue a large euro-denominated bond next month (so long as geopolitical conditions allow). If anything, this is just another reminder that Europeans need to get their natural gas from somewhere, and shipping crates of LNG across the Atlantic simply isn’t sustainable from a financial or logistical standpoint.

Authored by ‘NAMCIOS’ via BitcoinMagazine.com,

The game-theoretic aspect of Bitcoin adoption is shown as politicians around the world race to establish the most welcoming place for the industry.

Christophe De Beukelaer, a Brussels member of parliament, announced he will take his full 2022 salary in bitcoin in an effort to raise awareness about the digital currency in Europe and spark conversations around its usage across different areas of society.

“I am the first in Europe, but not in the world, to want to shine the spotlight on cryptocurrencies with such an approach,” De Beukelaer said in a blog post.

“I think it’s not too late for Brussels and Belgium to be at the forefront of the cryptocurrency industry. We already have some great companies in the field but it’s time to position ourselves clearly and create a real ecosystem.”

A wave of politicians has recently made the headlines with similar announcements, but while most of these pioneers had been from North America, De Beukelaer is taking the initiative to the East. The Brussels deputy said his move intends to wake up Europe to the potential benefits of Bitcoin in the region as the U.S. and Canada have so far led with clear actions to get ahead in terms of adoption.

Mayor of Miami Francis Suarez last year set out on a mission to make his city the U.S. capital of Bitcoin after pushing welcoming legislation that would allow city employees to get paid in the digital currency and enable citizens to pay city fees in bitcoin. Despite the suggested laws being stalled, Suarez took the initiative to get paid in bitcoin indirectly by converting his paycheck into BTC through the Lightning payments app Strike.

Soon after Suarez took large strides to attract the cryptocurrency industry to his city, New York City Mayor Eric Adams joined the friendly competition by announcing similar measures, mostly around the intention to become an innovation hub for Bitcoin-related products and services. Adams also converted some of his paychecks to bitcoin.

De Beukelaer said getting paid in bitcoin during this year serves as a means to attract attention to the peer-to-peer currency in the Old Continent which, despite housing notable companies in the industry, risks lacking behind North American markets.

The Brussels deputy said in the blog post that in addition to raising interest in cryptocurrency by policymakers, he intends to show “confidence in this new world” and encourage “deep reflection on our monetary system.”

“Monetary policy is a political subject…which has been left in the hands of technocrats for too long,” the blog post said. “All economists warn us that we are entering a very risky period: loss of confidence, inflation, printing of banknotes like never before, digital euro… However, these subjects are never addressed in the democratic debate. What is currency? What’s the point? What role for a Central Bank? I want to put these topics in the public square in 2022.”

Each year, the Edelman Trust Barometer report helps gauge the level of trust people place in various systems of power.

As Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley details below, the report is also a useful tool to gauge the general mood in countries around the world – and when it comes to how people in developed economies feel about the near future, there’s a very clear answer: pessimistic. In fact, optimism about respondents’ economic prospects fell in the majority of countries surveyed.

Here’s a full look how many respondents in 28 countries feel they and their families will be doing better over the next five years. Or, put more simply, what percentage of people are optimistic about their economic circumstances?

 

Interestingly, nine countries (those with checkmarks above) are polling at all-time lows for economic optimism in survey history.

 

Whose Glass is Half Empty?

Japanese respondents were the most pessimistic, with only 15% seeing positive economic prospects in the near term. Only 18% of French respondents were economically optimistic.

While most developed economies were slightly more optimistic than Japan and France, all are still well below the global average.

As tensions between China and the U.S. continue to heat up in 2022, there is one thing that can unite citizens in the two countries—a general feeling that economic prospects are souring. As the U.S. heads into midterm elections and China’s 20th National Party Congress takes place, leaders in both countries will surely have the economy on their minds.

Whose Glass is Half Full?

Of course, the mood isn’t all doom and gloom everywhere. The United Arab Emirates saw a 6 percentage point (p.p.) jump in their population’s economic prospects.

Indonesia saw an 11 p.p. increase, and in big developing economies like Brazil and India, the general level of optimism is still quite high.

In some ways, it’s no surprise that people in developing economies are more optimistic about their economic prospects. Living standards are generally rising in many of these countries, and more opportunities open up as the economy grows. Even in the most pessimistic African country surveyed, South Africa, the majority of people still see improving circumstances in their near future. In Kenya and Nigeria, an overwhelming majority are optimistic.

Diverging Outcomes

One major prediction that experts agreed on for the year ahead is that economic outcomes will begin to diverge between countries with differing levels of vaccine access.

While this doesn’t seem to have affected attitudes towards economic optimism yet, it remains to be seen how this will play out as the year progresses.

Thousands of flights within, into, or out of the US have been canceled across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states due to a major “bomb cyclone” producing blizzards. 

Winter storm warnings cover millions of people across ten states, including Ocean City, Maryland; Atlantic City, New Jersey; New York’s Long Island; Boston and Cape Cod, Massachusetts; and Portland, Maine. 

Flight tracking website FlightAware reports 3,500 flight cancellations within, into, or out of the US (as of 0720 ET). Flight delays within, into, or out of the US are 220. 

A bulk of the delays are centered in the Northeast. John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City has canceled 457, Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey canceled 322 flights, and Boston Logan International Airport canceled 309 flights. 

“The heaviest snowfall is likely to fall across a swath extending from the Eastern Shore of Maryland up through most of Maine where 6-12 inches are likely. Parts of coastal New England, where blizzard conditions are forecast, may see between 1-2 feet of snow with locally higher amounts possible, specifically over coastal Massachusetts,” the National Weather Service said. 

Early snowfall totals show accumulating snow: 

• 12.5″ in Forked River, New Jersey
• 11.4″ in Port Republic, New Jersey
• 10″ in Cape May, New Jersey
• 9.3″ in Eldora, New Jersey
• 7.0″ Babylon, New York

The winter storm is expected to dissipate by Sunday. In some areas in the coastal regions of the Northeast, more than two feet could fall and produce ‘historic’ blizzards.