TSA Checkpoints Close Amid COVID Outbreak, Adding To Travel Woes 

TSA Checkpoints Close Amid COVID Outbreak, Adding To Travel Woes 

Besides airline crews calling out sick and inclement weather canceling nearly 20,000 flights since Christmas Eve, travelers now have to contend with the closure of security checkpoints at airports. 

Traveling by air has been an absolute nightmare this past holiday season. It could worsen as staffing issues tied to the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in two Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoint closures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. 

“Beginning at 4 a.m. Jan, 7, the B & D Security Checkpoints in Terminal 4 will be closed. A & C will remain open. Wait times for non-PreCheck passengers could be up to 30 minutes & passengers should plan their arrivals accordingly,” Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport tweeted.

The temporary closure of the security checkpoints should increase wait times for travelers entering the airport. 

“We are monitoring this closely, and this situation only seems to affect Phoenix Sky Harbor for now,” R. Carter Langston, TSA spokesman, said in a statement.

“Communities and transportation systems have been hard hit by increasing COVID infections, and we continue to encourage those who are ill to stay home and get tested. Compliance with the federal face mask requirement, social distancing, and checkpoint modifications remain in place for those who choose to travel,” Langston added. 

At the moment, 3,300 employees or about 5% of TSA staff have been infected by the virus. It appears Phoenix Sky Harbor is the only US airport so far that has closed security checkpoints due to staffing issues. Are more closures imminent? 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/07/2022 – 17:40

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The Supreme Court Seems Inclined To Block OSHA’s Vaccine Mandate


John-Roberts-4-23-21-Newscom

The Supreme Court today considered whether it should block enforcement of the Biden administration’s COVID-19 vaccination rule for private employers until the many legal challenges to that policy are resolved. Most of the justices seemed inclined to think that the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) had overstepped its statutory authority by demanding that companies with 100 or more employees require them to be vaccinated or wear face masks and submit to weekly virus testing.

Chief Justice John Roberts noted that the Biden administration has imposed a series of vaccine mandates, covering federal employees, federal contractors, and health care workers as well the companies subject to OSHA’s rule. “It seems to me that the government is trying to work across the waterfront,” he said. “It sounds like the sort of thing that states will be responding to, or should be, or that Congress should be.”

Justice Neil Gorsuch agreed that the administration seems to be using various legal pretexts to create what amounts to a general vaccine mandate that Congress so far has declined to impose or authorize. “Congress has had a year to act on the question of vaccine mandates,” Gorsuch said. “It appears that the federal government is going agency by agency as a workaround.” He noted that OSHA’s rule relies on a statute that is “50 years old” and “doesn’t address the issue.” He added that “traditionally, states have had the responsibility for overseeing vaccination mandates.”

The concerns raised by Roberts, Gorsuch, and other justices echoed the points made by the plaintiffs. “OSHA typically identifies a workplace danger and then regulates this, but here the president decided to regulate a danger and then told OSHA to find a work-related basis for doing so,” said Ohio Solicitor General Benjamin Flowers. “It resulted in the vaccine mandate: a blunderbuss rule, nationwide in scope, that requires the same thing of all covered employers, regardless of the other steps they’ve taken to protect employees, regardless of the nature of their workplaces, regardless of their employees’ risk factors, and regardless of local conditions [that] state and local officials are far better positioned to understand and accommodate.”

OSHA’s mandate, which it published on November 5, is an “emergency temporary standard” (ETS), which circumvents the usual rule-making process. An ETS, which takes effect immediately upon publication, does not require advance notice or allowance for public input and hearings. But to take advantage of that rarely used shortcut, OSHA has to show that its rule is “necessary” to protect employees from a “grave danger” in the workplace.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, which stayed the ETS the day after it was published, said it “grossly exceeds OSHA’s statutory authority.” But after the challenges to the mandate were consolidated and assigned to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit, a divided three-judge panel lifted the 5th Circuit’s stay, which is how the case ended up at the Supreme Court.

Much of the discussion today focused on the “major questions” doctrine, which says Congress must “speak clearly if it wishes to assign to an agency decisions of vast ‘economic and political significance.'” OSHA’s rule—which applies to 84 million employees, two-thirds of the work force, across many different industries and some 2 million workplaces—certainly seems to qualify as such a decision. Justice Brett Kavanaugh suggested that the case involves “broad but arguably cryptic language,” making the major questions doctrine relevant. “If there is an ambiguity,” Gorsuch wondered, “why isn’t this a major question that therefore belongs to the people’s representatives in the states and in the halls of Congress?”

U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar argued that the businesses, employees, and state governments challenging the mandate have not cited “a textual or structural problem” that would justify invoking the major questions doctrine. Confronted by “the biggest threat to workers in OSHA’s history,” she said, the agency is simply exercising powers that Congress gave it.

Several justices seemed skeptical of that position. Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Amy Coney Barrett emphasized that an ETS must be “necessary” to address a “grave danger.” That is more demanding than the standard for an ordinary OSHA rule, which need only be “reasonably necessary or appropriate” to address a “significant risk.”

Scott Keller, a former Texas solicitor general who spoke on behalf of the business groups challenging OSHA’s edict, argued that necessary, in the context of an ETS, “has to mean indispensable or essential,” as opposed to merely “useful.” Otherwise, he said, OSHA could cite COVID-19 as the justification for policies even more sweeping than the vaccine mandate. Under the government’s theory, Keller suggested, OSHA could have imposed “a national work lockdown at the beginning of the pandemic.”

Prelogar conceded that a showing of necessity requires “some measure of tailoring.” But she rejected the plaintiffs’ argument that OSHA has to distinguish between industries and workplaces based on the COVID-19 risks they face.

“The grave danger exists, based on how this virus is transmitted, anywhere people gather indoors together,” Prelogar said. “There are certain workplaces—factories, assembly lines—where the risk is graver [and] the chance of transmission is heightened. But I don’t think that that in any sense calls into question [OSHA’s] determination that there is a baseline grave danger in any work site where that inside risk of transmission can occur.”

As Justice Stephen Breyer noted, OSHA’s rule includes exceptions for employees who work exclusively at home or exclusively outdoors. But Keller pointed out that the vast majority of people who work in outdoor occupations, such as landscapers and highway workers, are still covered by the mandate because they may be indoors “a little bit of time” each day. OSHA failed to do “an industry-by-industry analysis” of COVID-19 risk, Keller said, and it arbitrarily exempted companies with fewer than 100 employees, even though the “grave danger” it describes does not suddenly disappear below that threshold.

OSHA’s “internally inconsistent positions,” Keller said, also include its determination that middle-aged workers who are vaccinated do not face a “grave danger” from COVID-19 but younger workers who are not vaccinated do, even though the government’s data show that the two groups are about equally likely to die from the disease. He also noted that vaccinated people who are 65 or older face a much higher risk from COVID-19 than unvaccinated 18-to-49-year-olds.

While Justice Sonia Sotomayor suggested that such “apples to oranges” comparisons are not relevant, they go to the heart of the legal justification for the vaccine-or-test requirement. As Prelogar conceded, “the ‘grave danger’ finding is limited to unvaccinated workers.” OSHA is focusing both on the risk they face and the danger they pose to other unvaccinated workers, she said, but its rule is not aimed at protecting vaccinated workers, although it may incidentally have that effect.

Keller questioned the assumption that vaccination prevents virus transmission, noting that vaccinated employees can be infected, especially by the highly contagious omicron variant. Breyer, by contrast, cited the current omicron surge as a reason for allowing the mandate to take effect. He said the legal questions raised by the mandate are “difficult” and “could take time” to address. But with cases skyrocketing and hospitalizations rising, he wondered, “how can it conceivably be in the public interest” to impose an immediate stay? “To me,” he said, “it’s unbelievable.”

The plaintiffs argued that they need relief now because businesses otherwise will be required to submit their plans for complying with OSHA’s mandate by Monday and will immediately have trouble retaining workers who object to vaccination. As soon as the ETS takes effect, Keller warned, “workers will quit,” and there will be “national economic consequences.”

Sotomayor argued that the ETS “is not a vaccine mandate,” since employers can instead require testing and masking. But that option imposes additional burdens on employers, who may therefore decide that a vaccine requirement is easier to manage. And while OSHA has always required employers to pay for workplace safeguards, in this case it is allowing them to impose the cost of testing on workers, giving them an added incentive to be vaccinated.

The Biden administration has described the ETS as part of its plan for “vaccinating the unvaccinated,” and OSHA itself says its policy is designed to further that goal. Prelogar conceded that “encouragement of vaccination” is central to OSHA’s rule, which Justice Elena Kagan said aims to “strongly incentivize vaccination,” because that is the best protection against COVID-19.

As several justices noted, OSHA has never before required or encouraged employers to make vaccination mandatory, even when it issued a COVID-19 ETS for health care workers in June and when it addressed bloodborne pathogens through the usual rule-making process in the 1990s. “This is something the federal government has never done before,” Roberts said. Alito argued that the vaccination rule is “fundamentally different from anything OSHA has done before” because the safeguards it has previously mandated, such as protective clothing, were limited to the workplace. Vaccination, by contrast, “affects employees all the time.”

Gorsuch made a similar point about the risk OSHA is trying to reduce. “Traditionally,” he said, “OSHA has had rules that address workplace hazards that are unique to the workplace and don’t involve hazards that affect people 24 hours a day.” Flowers likewise noted that exposure to the coronavirus is “a risk we face when we wake up, when we’re with our families, when we stop to get coffee on the way to work at work, when we go to lunch and in the evening, if we go to a sporting event or a concert.” To justify an ETS, he said, OSHA would have to “cite a particular aspect of the workplace that creates a risk of a different nature.”

Sotomayor countered that argument by noting that, unlike many other situations where people might be exposed to COVID-19, work is not optional, and it involves “the combination of lots of people all going into one indoor space and having to deal with each other for eight hours.” She noted that “you have to be there with a bunch of people you don’t know, and who might be completely irresponsible.” Given that reality, she said, it makes sense to treat COVID-19 as a risk that is especially acute in the workplace.

Kagan argued that courts should not be second-guessing OSHA’s judgment because they lack the requisite expertise and are politically unaccountable. “Courts have not been elected [and] have no epidemiological expertise,” she said. “Why in the world would courts decide this question?”

Gorsuch noted that the issue is not what the decision should be but who is legally authorized to make it. “The question is not, ‘What is this country going to do about COVID?'” he said. “It’s who gets to decide that….It’s not that judges are supposed to decide some question of public health. It’s about regulating the rules of the system to ensure that the appropriate party does.”

Keller, for his part, questioned whether OSHA—rather than, say, the Department of Health and Human Services—actually has the appropriate expertise. “Is this the agency that has expertise over communicable diseases?” he asked. “No, it’s not.” He argued that “a single federal agency tasked with occupational standards cannot commandeer businesses economy-wide into becoming de facto public health agencies.”

Flowers conceded that OSHA may have authority to address COVID-19 in a more carefully calibrated way, but he argued that its ETS neglects distinctions that the agency is legally required to consider. “So sweeping a rule is not necessary to protect employees from a grave danger, as the emergency provision requires,” he said. “I want to be clear [that] the states share OSHA’s desire to bring this pandemic to a close. But the agency cannot pursue that laudable goal unlawfully.”

The post The Supreme Court Seems Inclined To Block OSHA's Vaccine Mandate appeared first on Reason.com.

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Daily Briefing: What Does the December Jobs Report Tell Us About Growth?

Daily Briefing: What Does the December Jobs Report Tell Us About Growth?

Non-farm payrolls in the U.S. rose by 199,000 in December, which pales in comparison to the original estimate of 422,000. Despite the actual numbers landing below expectations, unemployment in the country fell to 3.9%, which was actually better than the estimated 4.1%. Wages increased 4.7% year-over-year according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The industries that reaped the benefits the most were leisure and hospitality. Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and author of The Boock Report, joins to examine the U.S labor force and inflation. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been slipping all week and is now below $42,000, levels not seen since September last year. This too is the result of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes hinting at earlier- and faster-than-expected rate hikes. In Europe, inflation hit a record high of 5% in December, leaving people debating whether the European Central Bank should be more aggressive at combating price hikes. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3f3eIDe

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/07/2022 – 14:02

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The Supreme Court Seems Inclined To Block OSHA’s Vaccine Mandate


John-Roberts-4-23-21-Newscom

The Supreme Court today considered whether it should block enforcement of the Biden administration’s COVID-19 vaccination rule for private employers until the many legal challenges to that policy are resolved. Most of the justices seemed inclined to think that the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) had overstepped its statutory authority by demanding that companies with 100 or more employees require them to be vaccinated or wear face masks and submit to weekly virus testing.

Chief Justice John Roberts noted that the Biden administration has imposed a series of vaccine mandates, covering federal employees, federal contractors, and health care workers as well the companies subject to OSHA’s rule. “It seems to me that the government is trying to work across the waterfront,” he said. “It sounds like the sort of thing that states will be responding to, or should be, or that Congress should be.”

Justice Neil Gorsuch agreed that the administration seems to be using various legal pretexts to create what amounts to a general vaccine mandate that Congress so far has declined to impose or authorize. “Congress has had a year to act on the question of vaccine mandates,” Gorsuch said. “It appears that the federal government is going agency by agency as a workaround.” He noted that OSHA’s rule relies on a statute that is “50 years old” and “doesn’t address the issue.” He added that “traditionally, states have had the responsibility for overseeing vaccination mandates.”

The concerns raised by Roberts, Gorsuch, and other justices echoed the points made by the plaintiffs. “OSHA typically identifies a workplace danger and then regulates this, but here the president decided to regulate a danger and then told OSHA to find a work-related basis for doing so,” said Ohio Solicitor General Benjamin Flowers. “It resulted in the vaccine mandate: a blunderbuss rule, nationwide in scope, that requires the same thing of all covered employers, regardless of the other steps they’ve taken to protect employees, regardless of the nature of their workplaces, regardless of their employees’ risk factors, and regardless of local conditions [that] state and local officials are far better positioned to understand and accommodate.”

OSHA’s rule, which it published on November 5, is an “emergency temporary standard” (ETS), which circumvents the usual rule-making process. An ETS, which takes effect immediately upon publication, does not require advance notice or allowance for public input and hearings. But to take advantage of that rarely used shortcut, OSHA has to show that its rule is “necessary” to protect employees from a “grave danger” in the workplace.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, which stayed the ETS the day after it was published, said it “grossly exceeds OSHA’s statutory authority.” But after the challenges to the mandate were consolidated and assigned to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit, a divided three-judge panel lifted the 5th Circuit’s stay, which is how the case ended up at the Supreme Court.

Much of the discussion today focused on the “major questions” doctrine, which says Congress must “speak clearly if it wishes to assign to an agency decisions of vast ‘economic and political significance.'” OSHA’s rule—which applies to 84 million employees, two-thirds of the work force, across many different industries and workplaces—certainly seems to qualify as a major question. “If there is an ambiguity,” Gorsuch wondered, “why isn’t this a major question that therefore belongs to the people’s representatives in the states and in the halls of Congress?”

Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar argued that the businesses, employees, and state governments challenging the mandate have not cited “a textual or structural problem” that would justify invoking the major questions doctrine. Confronted by “the biggest threat to workers in OSHA’s history,” she said, the agency is simply exercising powers that Congress gave it.

Several justices seemed skeptical of that position. Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Amy Coney Barrett emphasized that an ETS must be “necessary” to address a “grave danger.” That is more demanding than the standard for an ordinary OSHA rule, which need only be “reasonably necessary or appropriate” to address a “significant risk.”

Scott Keller, a former Texas solicitor general who spoke on behalf of the business groups challenging OSHA’s edict, argued that necessary, in the context of an ETS, “has to mean indispensable or essential,” as opposed to merely “useful.” Otherwise, he said, OSHA could cite COVID-19 as the justification for policies even more sweeping than the vaccine mandate. Under the government’s theory, Keller suggested, OSHA could have imposed “a national work lockdown at the beginning of the pandemic.”

Prelogar conceded that a showing of necessity requires “some measure of tailoring.” But she rejected the plaintiffs’ argument that OSHA has to distinguish between industries and workplaces based on the COVID-19 risks they face.

“The grave danger exists, based on how this virus is transmitted, anywhere people gather indoors together,” Prelogar said. “There are certain workplaces—factories, assembly lines—where the risk is graver [and] the chance of transmission is heightened. But I don’t think that that in any sense calls into question [OSHA’s] determination that there is a baseline grave danger in any work site where that inside risk of transmission can occur.”

As Justice Stephen Breyer noted, OSHA’s rule includes exceptions for employees who work exclusively at home or exclusively outdoors. But Keller pointed out that the vast majority of people who work in outdoor occupations, such as landscapers and highway workers, are still covered by the mandate because they may be indoors “a little bit of time” each day. OSHA failed to do “an industry-by-industry analysis” of COVID-19 risk, Keller said, and it arbitrarily exempted companies with fewer than 100 employees, even though the “grave danger” it describes does not suddenly disappear below that threshold.

OSHA’s “internally inconsistent positions,” Keller said, also include its determination that middle-aged workers who are vaccinated do not face a “grave danger” from COVID-19 but younger workers who are not vaccinated do, even though the government’s data show that the two groups are about equally likely to die from the disease. He also noted that vaccinated people aged 65 or older face a much higher risk from COVID-19 than unvaccinated 18-to-49-year-olds.

While Justice Sonia Sotomayor suggested that such “apples to oranges” comparisons are not relevant, they go to the heart of the legal justification for the vaccine-or-test requirement. As Prelogar conceded, “the ‘grave danger’ finding is limited to unvaccinated workers.” OSHA is focusing both on the risk they face and the danger they pose to other unvaccinated workers, she said, but its rule is not aimed at protecting vaccinated workers, although it may incidentally have that effect.

Keller questioned the assumption that vaccination prevents virus transmission, noting that vaccinated employees can be infected, especially by the highly contagious omicron variant. Breyer, by contrast, cited the current omicron surge as a reason for allowing the mandate to take effect. He said the legal questions raised by the mandate are “difficult” and “could take time” to address. But with cases skyrocketing and hospitalizations rising, he wondered, “how can it conceivably be in the public interest” to impose an immediate stay? “To me,” he said, “it’s unbelievable.”

The plaintiffs argued that they need relief now because businesses otherwise will be required to submit their plans for complying with OSHA’s mandate by Monday and will immediately have trouble retaining workers who object to vaccination. As soon as the ETS takes effect, Keller warned, “workers will quit,” and there will be “national economic consequences.”

Sotomayor argued that the ETS “is not a vaccine mandate,” since employers can instead require testing and masking. But that option imposes additional burdens on employers, who may therefore decide that a vaccine requirement is easier to manage. And while OSHA has always required employers to pay for workplace safeguards, in this case it is allowing them to impose the cost of testing on workers, giving them an added incentive to be vaccinated.

The Biden administration has described the ETS as part of its plan for “vaccinating the unvaccinated,” and OSHA itself says its policy is designed to further that goal. Prelogar conceded that “encouragement of vaccination” is central to OSHA’s rule, which Justice Elena Kagan said aims to “strongly incentivize vaccination,” because that is the best protection against COVID-19.

As several justices noted, OSHA has never before required or encouraged employers to make vaccination mandatory, even when it issued a COVID-19 ETS for health care workers in June and when it addressed bloodborne pathogens through the usual rule-making process in the 1990s. “This is something the federal government has never done before,” Roberts said. Alito argued that the vaccination rule is “fundamentally different from anything OSHA has done before” because the safeguards it has previously mandated, such as protective clothing, were limited to the workplace. Vaccination, by contrast, “affects employees all the time.”

Gorsuch made a similar point about the risk OSHA is trying to reduce. “Traditionally,” he said, “OSHA has had rules that address workplace hazards that are unique to the workplace and don’t involve hazards that affect people 24 hours a day.” Flowers likewise noted that exposure to the coronavirus is “a risk we face when we wake up, when we’re with our families, when we stop to get coffee on the way to work at work, when we go to lunch and in the evening, if we go to a sporting event or a concert.” To justify an ETS, he said, OSHA would have to “cite a particular aspect of the workplace that creates a risk of a different nature.”

Sotomayor countered that argument by noting that, unlike many other situations where people might be exposed to COVID-19, work is not optional, and it involves “the combination of lots of people all going into one indoor space and having to deal with each other for eight hours.” She noted that “you have to be there with a bunch of people you don’t know, and who might be completely irresponsible.” Given that reality, she said, it makes sense to treat COVID-19 as a risk that is especially acute in the workplace.

Kagan argued that courts should not be second-guessing OSHA’s judgment because they lack the requisite expertise and are politically unaccountable. “Courts have not been elected [and] have no epidemiological expertise,” she said. “Why in the world would courts decide this question?”

Gorsuch noted that the issue is not what the decision should be but who is legally authorized to make it. “The question is not, ‘What is this country going to do about COVID?'” he said. “It’s who gets to decide that….It’s not that judges are supposed to decide some question of public health. It’s about regulating the rules of the system to ensure that the appropriate party does.”

Keller, for his part, questioned whether OSHA—rather than, say, the Department of Health and Human Services—actually has the appropriate expertise. “Is this the agency that has expertise over communicable diseases?” he asked. “No, it’s not.” He argued that “a single federal agency tasked with occupational standards cannot commander [Is this the wrong word/does it merit a sic?] businesses economy-wide into becoming de facto public health agencies.”

Flowers conceded that OSHA may have authority to address COVID-19 in a more carefully calibrated way, but he argued that its ETS neglects distinctions that the agency is legally required to consider. “So sweeping a rule is not necessary to protect employees from a grave danger, as the emergency provision requires,” he said. “I want to be clear [that] the states share OSHA’s desire to bring this pandemic to a close. But the agency cannot pursue that laudable goal unlawfully.”

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Jeff Deist: How We Will Win

Jeff Deist: How We Will Win

Authored by Jeff Deist via The Mises Institute,

You do not defend a world that is already lost. When was it lost? That you cannot say precisely. It is a point for the revolutionary historian to ponder. We know only that it was surrendered peacefully, without a struggle, almost unawares. There was no day, no hour, no celebration of the event—and yet definitely, the ultimate power of initiative did pass from the hands of private enterprise to government.

There it is and there it will remain until, if ever, it shall be reconquered. Certainly government will never surrender it without a struggle.

We enter 2022 with the hope and optimism made possible only by the most clear-eyed assessment of reality. Garet Garett’s remarkable words, published in 1938, are right at home in the new year. They are also liberating. There is no going back, no restoration, no “reform”—the America we thought we knew is gone. Tens of millions of Americans now believe both the US federal government and the major institutions in this country—from media to big corporations to universities to Hollywood to Big Pharma and the medical establishment—are actively working against their interests. They have no self-interest in defending a world already lost.

We can be melancholy about this or we can be happy and confident about the opportunities presented. Those same millions who no longer believe the system works are eager to build a new one. America is barely a country at this point, beyond a pure economic arrangement. Without material abundance (no small thing, of course), what really connects us? America certainly is not a cohesive nation in any meaningful way—and why should it be, given its vast geography and enormous (real) diversity? This reality, not pining for some fuzzy, long-lost constitutionalism, should inform us, as per Garett’s admonition.

A compelling and viable path forward starts with identifying and coalescing around the many de facto smaller nations which already exist within the US.

The covid regime, for starters, has allowed federalism to reassert itself in ways few of us could have imagined two years ago. Even hapless Joe Biden recently admitted there is no federal solution to a virus, that covid must be “solved” by the states. Governors now openly snipe at one another on social media, and encourage competition among businesses and families looking to relocate. The moving company United Van Lines happily provides with its annual survey. Those who can, given their economic and family situations, are voting with their feet. Regionalism has a new energy not seen for many decades.

Among those nations, two broad paths forward present themselves. One America intends to make 2022 another covid year, complete with business and school lockdowns, mask requirements, and vaccine passports. Another America wants to get back to normal as much as possible, and deal with the virus as a permanent but manageable part of the landscape (like existing flu viruses). This fork in the road forms a flash point simply because the two paths are incompatible, but also because they provide real-time opportunities to apply different policies (often de facto, such as when businesses simply disregard covid rules) in different states and locales. These opportunities in turn provide a blueprint for how intractable issues like abortion and gun control might be addressed more locally, rather than by nine black-robed superlegislators.

These two covid trajectories are almost metapolitical at this point, but they demonstrate the inescapable choice: organize society around the state or organize it around individuals, families, markets, and the institutions of civil society. We can live in a political world or in an economic world. Mixing the two is not working.

Politics won’t go away, of course. But it will remain a lagging indicator.

  • The Left is hopelessly consumed by hatred and ingratitude, mired in identity, and animated by a desire to hurt and vanquish the Deplorables (Trump voters, antivaxxers, covid deniers, et al.) as an act of revenge.

  • The Right is lost in Trumpian dysfunction, moving further and further from any coherent message about economics or opportunity while allowing neoconservatives to regroup and promote bellicosity toward Russia, China, and Iran. Libertarians, too, have lost the plot—navel-gazing over what kind of circumstances would justify lockdowns and mandates, cheering the deplatforming (even the debanking) of alternative and dissident voices by tech companies, and accepting progressive framing of “climate change” and the like, all while failing to focus on the threats of empire and central banking.

Both “sides” are led by deeply unserious people who are congenitally unfit to organize a sandwich shop, much less lord over 330 million people.

But if politics cannot be eliminated, it can be made more tolerable by an aggressive push toward subsidiarity. Americans already sensed this, but covid accelerated it. Giving up on political universalism is a bitter pill for the political class, but one that must be swallowed. It’s the pill Mises prescribed a century ago in his radically decentralist calls for “liberal nationalism” and the right of self-determination as the hallmark of a decent society. Does this mean America must break up into new political entities, as the Austro-Hungarian empire did? Not necessarily, but it does mean accepting a far greater degree of federalism and localism and a dramatically diminished national government. The way forward is apart.

“We Will Win” is a ubiquitous hashtag on Twitter lately, code for the sense of change so many Americans feel but can’t yet articulate.

  • We will win because socialism is incompatible with human nature and a productive material economy.

  • We will win because the Fed’s crazed monetization of Treasury debt and its maniacal fetish for low interest rates are unsustainable.

  • We will win because Uncle Sam will run out of (valuable) money.

  • We will win because entitlements ultimately are unpayable, at least in real terms.

  • We will win because war, empire, and nation building have exhausted themselves and Americans of all political stripes want us out of the Middle East.

  • We will win because woke will fail of its own internal contradictions and infighting.

  • And we will win because the digital age is inexorably decentralizing virtually every aspect of human life, and governments cannot escape this forever.

So, We Will Win. But how long will it take, and at what price victory?

No one can know. But great things are happening, and we should take good cheer with us into 2022!

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/07/2022 – 17:20

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Move Over Farmers, The Fully Autonomous, Self-Driving Tractor Has Officially Arrived

Move Over Farmers, The Fully Autonomous, Self-Driving Tractor Has Officially Arrived

It’s not often you hear the words “John Deere” and “controversy” together, but that’s exactly what is coming to pass as the agricultural staple looks to debut its first fully autonomous tractor.

Equipped with six pairs of stereo cameras and AI, John Deere’s new 8R tractor can both perceive its environment and navigate, according to a new writeup by Wired. It relies on neural network algorithms analyzing data streaming into its cameras.  

In fact, it can even “find its way to a field on its own when given a route and coordinates, then plow the soil or sow seeds without instructions, avoiding obstacles as it goes,” the report says.

This is a far cry from the autonomous tractors available today, many of which can only operate in limited situations. 

Jahmy Hindman, Deere’s chief technology officer, said at CES 2022: “It’s a monumental shift. I think it’s every bit as big as the transition from horse to tractor.”

The benefits of such tractors are obvious: they could help lower labor costs for farmers significantly. The negative consequences around such tractors includes the very same labor that would be threatened from the innovation. 

Technical issues with the tractor have “largely been solved,” according to Qin Zhang, director of the Center for Precision & Automated Agricultural Systems at Washington State University.

The question now is whether some farmers find the tractor either too expensive, or too difficult to program. And not everybody is on board with the innovation, Wired noted. Kevin Kenney, an agricultural engineer who has criticized Deere’s limits on farmers’ ability to repair their own equipment, says that the tractors could make farmers more reliant on Deere for repairs, similar to the way newer vehicles need to be taken to the dealership more than they used to. 

“I’m all for innovation, and I think John Deere is a helluva company, but they’re trying to be the Facebook of farming,” he said. 

Its autonomous tractor could just be the beginning, too. Wired says that the introduction of this tractor also “provides a virtuous cycle for training new AI algorithms and developing new products.”

Deere hasn’t disclosed a price for its new tractor yet.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/07/2022 – 17:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3F5Lgat Tyler Durden

Why Don’t We Cut Out The Middleman And Just Elect Pfizer & Merck?

Why Don’t We Cut Out The Middleman And Just Elect Pfizer & Merck?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

If we no longer have the capacity to distinguish between moral legitimacy and self-serving corruption, then we might as well eliminate the Middleman and vote directly for Pfizer or Merck.

There’s a fancy word for cutting out the Middleman: disintermediation. Removing intermediaries who take a cut but neither produce nor add value makes perfect sense, reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

Maybe it’s time to eliminate the politicians who soak up hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign contributions from corporations and the super-wealthy and just elect Pfizer, Merck, Amazon, General Dynamics, etc. directly. Since corporate lobbyists write most of the legislation anyway, why not cut out the intermediaries in the process?

The super-wealthy buy political power via Political Action Committees (PACs and Super-PACs), think tanks and philanthro-capitalist foundations (Gates Foundation, et al.). Now that it takes tens of millions of dollars to buy the conventional “winning campaign,” the political class spends much of its time fund-raising, i.e. lavishing kisses on the derrieres of corporations and the super-wealthy, implicitly promising to do their bidding better than the alternative candidates that the corporations and super-wealthy could buy.

Recall Smith’s Neofeudalism Principle #1: If the citizenry cannot replace a kleptocratic authoritarian government and/or limit the power of the financial Aristocracy at the ballot box, the nation is a democracy in name only.

The reality that our elected government doesn’t respond to voters has been well-established: Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens.

Politics has been reduced to claiming to serve the public while serving as handmaidens to a neofeudal autocracy. The public would be well-served by stripping away the obfuscating artifice and fakery and revealing just who’s in charge.

Our “democracy” is nothing but an invitation-only auction of political power cloaked with fine-sounding excuses. Politics has always been about money, so this is nothing new; I would love to serve the public interest but gosh-darn it, I need to raise $30 million pronto or I’ll lose my seat at the banquet; we’re the party of noble idealism and public service, blah blah blah….

America is nothing but a vast moral cesspool that the public is told is a pristine pond of wonderfulness. The secular religion is self-interest cloaked as caring, profiteering sold as “value,” fraud packaged as “finance” and rapacious monopolies marketed as “enterprise.”

Many wonder why the nation is fracturing, but few bother to look at the collapse of moral legitimacy as a primary factor. Does anyone ask why trust in institutions and government has collapsed? The reason is these institutions have become little more than rackets enriching insiders and middleman-grifters; they have lost moral legitimacy which is the fundamental foundation of democracy and a market-based economy.

As I explain in my new book Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United Statescivic virtue is the foundation of social cohesion. Once moral legitimacy and civic virtue–the obligation of elites to serve the common good–have been lost, social cohesion unravels and the nation falls.

Those waiting around for campaign finance reform to actually have any positive consequences are delusional. The system serves the Corporatocracy and the super-wealthy, period, and those in power have zero incentive to do more than present threadbare simulations of “reform” to generate a short-lived illusion that we’re not living in a neofeudal autocracy.

All we will have is a neofeudal autocracy until we stop voting for candidates who accept contributions from corporations and the shills and front organizations of the super-wealthy. Nothing will change for the better in America until only candidates who accept zero dollars from corporations and the super-wealthy win elections and every candidate who accepted corrupt money and tried to hide it loses by a landslide.

We don’t need more toothless campaign reform; we need a populace who starts voting exclusively for candidates who only accept small contributions from the public and accept absolutely zero dollars from corporations and the super-wealthy. All the tiresome political theater serves to obscure what really matters: the difference between hard-earned moral legitimacy and the self-serving corruption of the neofeudal autocracy.

If we no longer have the capacity to distinguish between moral legitimacy and self-serving corruption, then we might as well eliminate the Middleman and vote directly for Pfizer or Merck. At least the corruption, neofeudalism and autocracy would finally be transparent.

Come on, Merck: fund a new stadium for our gladiators and you’ll get my vote.

*  *  *

My new book is now available at a 20% discount this month: Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $8.95, print $20). If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/07/2022 – 16:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/34pOLvz Tyler Durden

Weather and Climate Disasters Are Declining Globally


BadWeatherDreamstime

“The number of weather, climate and water extremes are increasing and will become more frequent and severe in many parts of the world as a result of climate change,” declared World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Petteri Taalas last August. He was making the statement in conjunction with the release of a 2020 WMO report that claimed that the number of weather disasters has “increased by a factor of five over the 50-year period, driven by climate change, more extreme weather and improved reporting.” Keep that last caveat in mind. Below is a chart of the weather and climate disasters tallied in the WMO report.

The WMO report relies largely on the disaster data collected by the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) established in 1988 by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. The EM-DAT compiles and reports natural disasters from 1900 until today. However, the compilers acknowledge that the increase over time of the disasters included in the database could in part be the result of improved reporting around the globe.

Similarly, in 2020, the United Nations released its Human Cost of Disasters report, also using EM-DAT data, which parsed global disaster trends between 2000 and 2019. Below is that report’s chart tracking the annual toll of disasters around the globe.

 

Unlike the WMO chart, the U.N. report included disasters caused by geophysical events including earthquakes, volcanoes, and landslides. Interestingly, six of the 10 deadliest disasters in the past 20 years were earthquakes, killing 657,000 out of 943,000 wiped out by those events (70 percent).

So what does the recent trend in weather and climate disasters look like if the geophysical ones are excluded from the EM-DAT dataset? University of Colorado political scientist Roger Pielke Jr. has done just that and updated it through 2021.

“The data show that from 2000 to 2021, the number of global weather and climate disasters declined by about 10%, which is very good news and completely contrary to conventional wisdom,” notes Pielke over at his new Honest Broker Substack. “The period since 2000 is viewed as the most reliable for data reliability, but it is safe to say that even since 2000, coverage has improved. So the 10% decline is possibly an underestimate.” Note that even the WMO report shows a decline between the 2000–2009 and 2010–2019 periods.

Pielke properly cautions, “Of course, don’t use data on disasters to say anything about changes in weather or climate — data on specific weather and climate variables are always more appropriate for tracking changes in climate.” Data such as global temperature and precipitation trends. Humanity is losing more houses and infrastructure to bad weather largely because a richer and more populous world has put much more property in harm’s way. Despite the alarmism about increasing weather disaster damages, toting up their costs cannot serve as reliable proof for man-made climate change.

The post Weather and Climate Disasters Are Declining Globally appeared first on Reason.com.

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Weather and Climate Disasters Are Declining Globally


BadWeatherDreamstime

“The number of weather, climate and water extremes are increasing and will become more frequent and severe in many parts of the world as a result of climate change,” declared World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Petteri Taalas last August. He was making the statement in conjunction with the release of a 2020 WMO report that claimed that the number of weather disasters has “increased by a factor of five over the 50-year period, driven by climate change, more extreme weather and improved reporting.” Keep that last caveat in mind. Below is a chart of the weather and climate disasters tallied in the WMO report.

The WMO report relies largely on the disaster data collected by the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) established in 1988 by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. The EM-DAT compiles and reports natural disasters from 1900 until today. However, the compilers acknowledge that the increase over time of the disasters included in the database could in part be the result of improved reporting around the globe.

Similarly, in 2020, the United Nations released its Human Cost of Disasters report, also using EM-DAT data, which parsed global disaster trends between 2000 and 2019. Below is that report’s chart tracking the annual toll of disasters around the globe.

 

Unlike the WMO chart, the U.N. report included disasters caused by geophysical events including earthquakes, volcanoes, and landslides. Interestingly, six of the 10 deadliest disasters in the past 20 years were earthquakes, killing 657,000 out of 943,000 wiped out by those events (70 percent).

So what does the recent trend in weather and climate disasters look like if the geophysical ones are excluded from the EM-DAT dataset? University of Colorado political scientist Roger Pielke Jr. has done just that and updated it through 2021.

“The data show that from 2000 to 2021, the number of global weather and climate disasters declined by about 10%, which is very good news and completely contrary to conventional wisdom,” notes Pielke over at his new Honest Broker Substack. “The period since 2000 is viewed as the most reliable for data reliability, but it is safe to say that even since 2000, coverage has improved. So the 10% decline is possibly an underestimate.” Note that even the WMO report shows a decline between the 2000–2009 and 2010–2019 periods.

Pielke properly cautions, “Of course, don’t use data on disasters to say anything about changes in weather or climate — data on specific weather and climate variables are always more appropriate for tracking changes in climate.” Data such as global temperature and precipitation trends. Humanity is losing more houses and infrastructure to bad weather largely because a richer and more populous world has put much more property in harm’s way. Despite the alarmism about increasing weather disaster damages, toting up their costs cannot serve as reliable proof for man-made climate change.

The post Weather and Climate Disasters Are Declining Globally appeared first on Reason.com.

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Nasdaq 100 Suffers Worst Start To Year Since 2000; Rates & Risk-Parity Routed

Nasdaq 100 Suffers Worst Start To Year Since 2000; Rates & Risk-Parity Routed

Investors appear to be starting the year with an aversion to long duration stocks and instead are leaning into Value stocks with closer ties to an economic recovery. Growth stocks fell to a key technical level this week relative to Value stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq down 7 of the last 8 days and was by far the week’s worst performer as The Dow clung to unchanged on the year today (but faded into the close to end red like the rest). The S&P ended down 2% and Small Caps down 3% on the week. That is Nasdaq’s worst week since Feb 2021…

“Many retail investors have arguably too high exposure to speculative growth equities and thus they have high interest rate exposure without knowing it,” writes Peter Garnry, Saxo Bank’s head of equity strategy.

“As we have said for a year now, it is wise to begin balancing the portfolio blending growth with more low equity duration assets and especially those with supposedly inflation hedging capabilities.”

For context, this is the worst start to a year for the Nasdaq 100 since 2000…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy and Financials outperformed this week as Tech and Healthcare lagged…

Source: Bloomberg

FAAMG+T Stocks (which represent 25%+ of the S&P 500 market cap) were a disastrophe this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Erasing all the Santa Claus rally…

Nasdaq Biotech Index is on track to close 5.8% lower in its worst weekly drop since March 2020, breaking below key support back to Dec 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P Airlines Index rose over 7% this week – its best week since early November – as Omicron anxiety began to fade and several nations lifted travel restrictions…

Source: Bloomberg

Risk-Parity and vol-focused funds were clubbed like a baby seal this week with one example, RPAR, suffering its biggest weekly drop since the COVID collapse in March 2020..

This helps explain why both bonds and stocks were hammered (obviously along with the hawkish tilt from policymakers) as RP funds force-delevered. The start of 2022 saw the worst aggregate weekly loss for bonds and stocks since the market carnage in March 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

On the bond side of the world, it was a bloodbath with the belly clubbed like a baby seal (7Y +26bps on the week, 2Y +13bps, 30Y +20bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y Yield broke out to its highest in 2 years while 30Y remains below the Oct 2021 highs for now…

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. interest-rate swap spreads were wider across the curve today as corporate treasurers braced for another swath of high-grade corporate supply while money managers hedge interest-rate risk. That widening kept pressure on Treasuries. Higher rates inspired corporate borrowers to pay in 30-year swaps and sell cash bonds about 30 minutes after the December labor market data. That means they are locking in rates in the long-end ahead of future issuance. Next week’s issuance is expected at ~$30b, but if this week’s more than $60b in issuance is any guide, that number is likely to rise, especially given the increase in borrowing rates.

All of which explains why the yield curve suddenly flipped from flattening (a fundamental-based move driven by policy-error fears) after the payrolls print to steepening – a technically-driven move…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, after 2 last peaks in COVID-19 cases, 10-year yields jumped 50-60bps following 3 months…

Source: Bloomberg

This morning’s sent STIRs soaring, pushing the odds of a March 2022 rate-hike above 90%! and a 50% chance of a 4th rate-hike by Dec 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the week only marginally higher, oddly giving the week’s gains back today after the ‘hawkish’ jobs data…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were ugly this week to start 2022, with Ethereum the worst performer…

Source: Bloomberg

With Bitcoin breaking down to a $40,000 handle today, its lowest since late September 2021…’

Source: Bloomberg

Notably The US session is dominating the selling pressure on cryptos, perhaps suggesting this is more related to mega-cap tech liquidation

Commodity markets were very mixed with crude surging while precious metals and copper were sold…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI rallied up to $80 this week, erasing all concerns over Omicron impacting demand and any short-term gain from Biden’s cunning plan to cut gas prices…

 

Finally, we note that Sentimentrader points out there is a massive meltdown in Nasdaq stocks:

“After Wednesday’s post-FOMC selloff, more than 38% of stocks trading on the Nasdaq are now down 50% from their 52-week highs. Only 13% of days since 1999 have seen more stocks cut in half.”

And in case you believe in BTFD, you probably should consider this: “When at least 35% of stocks are down by half, the Composite has been down by an average of 47% (!) from its 3-year high.”

And there is simply no way that a modest 2% drop in the S&P will trigger the Powell Put!

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/07/2022 – 16:01

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3HQ3Fdf Tyler Durden