One step that could help prevent another January 6 would be to reform the Electoral Count Act, so as to remove the ability of members of Congress to question or subvert certified election results. This is the argument made in an op-ed by law professors Edward Foley, Michael McConnell, Richard Pildes, and Bradley Smith — four aw professors that span the political spectrum and agree on very little.
Their argument for ECA reform is based upon two principles:
First, to avoid a repeat of Jan. 6, or worse, Congress must rewrite the Electoral Count Act, the outmoded 1887 law that governs the certification of the presidential vote. There is a pressing need for a clear set of rules to govern the certification of the presidential vote.
Second, this revision should be based on the premise that Congress is not a national recount board or a court for litigating the outcome of presidential elections. It is not the role of Congress to revisit a state’s popular vote tally.
As they explain, the current ECA created an opportunity for mischief. Solid reform could make January shenanigans more difficult.
In terms of what reform should look like, the four authors offer several guidelines:
Whenever there is just one submission of electoral votes from a state — in other words, no competing slates of electors — Congress should disavow any power to question those electoral votes on the ground that there was something wrong with the popular vote upon which those electors were appointed. As long as the state itself has settled on who won that state through policies established in advance of the election, Congress has no role other than to accept those as being the state’s electoral votes.
In a situation in which Congress receives conflicting submissions of electoral votes from different institutions of state government — something that has not occurred since 1876 and that we hope remains rare — Congress should incentivize states to identify in advance which institution is entitled to speak for its voters. If states do this, then Congress only has to count the electoral votes sent from the designated part of the state’s government.
If a state has failed to make clear which part of its government is authoritative in determining the popular vote, Congress could set a default rule (awarding power to the governor or state supreme court, for example). Or it could create in advance a nonpartisan tribunal empowered to identify which part of state government has a better legal claim for being authoritative under the specific circumstances.
Whichever approach Congress takes is less important than that the revised statute be unambiguous about how the matter is to be resolved. Uncertainty invites contestation at precisely the most dangerous point, on the eve of inaugurating the new president.
These guidelines seem sensible to me, and appear to represent the sort of reform that might actually obtain bipartisan support. Indeed,
Russia Warns Against Any ‘Foreign Interference’ In Kazakhstan Unrest
It didn’t take long for the Kremlin to chime in on the raging and increasingly violent protests which have rocked its southern neighbor, the former Soviet satellite of Kazakhstan. As we underscored earlier, what began as angry mass protests days ago upon authorities removing a cap on gas prices for the citizenry now appears to be a full-blown push for government overthrow happening in the streets. With state buildings on fire and fierce clashes with police in various cities, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has on Wednesday extended the ‘state of emergency’ across the whole nation.
Already there are rumblings in regional press of possible “foreign manipulation” — causing Russia to warn against any external interference in Kazakhstan’s affairs, according to Reuters citing RIA news agency. At the same time some Western pundits are already making this all about Putin.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov addressed the rapidly moving events which has seen the Kazakh president vow not to leave the capital “no matter what”. Peskov stressed to reporters that the country can “solve its own problems” and that it’s crucial that “no one interfere from the outside.”
And more, the report quoted Peskov as saying “Kazakhstan had not requested Russian help to deal with protests, triggered by a fuel price increase, that prompted the resignation of its government on Wednesday.”
The Russian foreign ministry confirmed separately it’s monitoring the unrest, “We advocate the peaceful resolution of all problems within the constitutional and legal framework and dialogue, rather than through street riots and the violation of laws,” a statement said.
Internet has been blocked across the country for at least a full day at this point, and there were earlier unconfirmed reports that the largest international airport, Almaty Airport, had been stormed and seized by rioters, with all flights canceled.
Hawkish analysts in the West are already linking Kazakh government oppression with who else… Putin
Another country with its border to Russia revolts: because the Beloved Leader stays in power for too long. Not a good sign for Putin, who will clearly intervene, if Nursultan (ruling since Summer 1989!) would disappoint Putin. Long live free Kazakhstan! pic.twitter.com/TAjQHDsewf
For now at this early point, claims of outside or foreign interference remain highly speculative, also given the lack of much if any international correspondents actually on the ground during the unrest.
Meanwhile multiple public buildings, including at least one presidential residence, have been torched, according to widely circulating social media videos.
Protesters now storming the main government building in Kazakhstan’s largest city Almaty. pic.twitter.com/lemKcpILL8
Erdogan Tells Banks To Snoop On Dollar Sellers, “Deter” Clients From Hedging Lira Collapse
How do you know the time is almost up for an authoritarian ruler and his crumbling, hyperinflating economy? When said ruler starting taking sales of his imploding currency personally, and instructs banks to prevent the normal functioning of the market.
And just in case it was unclear, we are of course referring to the latest development in Erdogan’s banana republic of Turkey (we only clear this up because this is just as applicable to the banana republics of North America and Europe), where now that the lira is again in freefall mode after the central bank blew billions of dollars on now worthless interventions, authorities have escalated their crackdown on what little is left of the market, and are “keeping tabs” on investors who are buying large amounts of foreign currency while asking banks to deter their clients from using the spot market for hedging-related trades as they scramble to slow the lira’s relentless slide.
According to Bloomberg, the central bank has requested commercial lenders inform them of any big-ticket dollar purchases that may impact the market negatively, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named as the information isn’t public.
Officials also asked banks to advise corporate clients looking to hedge any potential lira losses to use the futures markets or the central bank’s non-delivered forward market, the people said. Why the futures market? Because that’s where Turkey has been manipulating the lira most aggressively as it gets extra bang for its (USD) buck, something it can’t do in the spot market, especially since the central bank’s net actual reserves are now negative. The only question is when will Turkey’s FX swaps stop working – that’s when the lira will reprice from 13 to 100+ in a millisecond.
Meanwhile, after its torrid surge in mid-December when Erdogan unveiled a bizarro scheme involving foreign-currency-linked deposit accounts to “compensate” lira holders for FX losses and which together with billions in central bank interventions sparked a massive short squeeze, the lira has since weakened more than 20% against the dollar over the past two weeks, weighed down by a cycle of aggressive rate cuts that drove inflation to the highest level in two decades, hitting nearly 40% earlier this week. The Turkish currency was trading sharply lower again today, and was last seen at 13.62. At this rate it will be back to its all time low of 18 in no time.
The bottom line is that as long as Turkey fails to do the only thing that can restore some normalcy to the economy, a rate hike, the currency collapse will continue, especially now that Turkish real rates are the lowest they have ever been, prompting a wholesale exodus of both domestic and foreign investors out of the country.
A rate hike however is not happening, as Erdogan has repeatedly said he would rather watch a total economic collapse, as he wants to rid the country of its reliance on short-term foreign capital that flows in when rates are high, and wants to retool the economy by boosting exports. He also believes that high rates spur inflation rater than cool it. Will it work? Check back in a year when Turkey’s currency is north of 1000 to 1.
How are the dollars and cents of your life changing as we move into 2022? Peter Schiff joined University of Miami Business School Dean John Quelch and host Holland Cooke on RT’s “Big Picture” to talk about the year ahead. Peter left us with an ominous warning. 2022 will be worse than 2021 as inflation continues to mount.
The first question posed to Peter was have Americans’ prospects for prosperity become less likely? Peter said he thinks they’ve diminished dramatically and will get even worse as the decade progresses. He pointed out that in the 50s, Americans had much more economic freedom. The government was much smaller. The US was a large industrial nation with big trade surpluses. We had a sounder economy and more savings.
We’re the mirror image of that now. We’re the world’s biggest debtor nation — record trade deficits. We’ve got no savings. We have a complete bubble economy based on artificially low interest rates, excess consumption financed by debt and money printing. And we’re about to pay the piper for that.”
Peter said we’re just now seeing the tip of an inflationary iceberg. And despite pulling back a little bit, the Federal Reserve is still pursuing a highly accommodative monetary policy.
He is throwing more gasoline on the inflationary fire that the Fed lit. So Americans, I think, are going to be dealing with a dramatically diminished standard of living as this decade unfolds. I think the dollar goes down a lot. The cost of living goes up dramatically.”
Quelch sounded a more optimistic tone. He said Americans’ propensity to innovate and competition with China will help drive the US economy forward. He said the US has always done a tremendous job of innovating itself out of difficulty.
Yet we have this inflation problem. Cooke reminded us that the Fed has called inflation “transitory.” Peter said it’s intractable.
And despite what a lot of people think, the economy wasn’t strong before the pandemic. It was a great big fat ugly bubble.
We really couldn’t survive the economic downturn. So, the Fed bailed us out with more money printing. You know, we haven’t been innovating our way out of crisis. We’ve been printing our way out. But we’ve printed out way into an even bigger crisis because now we’re paying the piper. Because this inflation acts as a lag. In fact, I think we’re still dealing with the inflation that was created before the pandemic. Wait until we catch up to the even greater inflation that we created after.”
Prices going up are merely a result of inflation.”
Prior to the pandemic, much of the inflation was manifesting itself in asset prices – real estate, stocks and bonds. Consumer prices didn’t go up as much. (Although they went up more than the government admitted with its rigged CPI.)
I think right now prices are rising at a faster rate than in any year during the 1970s. But instead of being on the verge of doing something to contain inflation, we’re just getting ready to make it worse.”
The Fed can’t do anything about inflation because of the level of debt in the economy.
Peter also pointed out that you can’t consume if you don’t produce.
Our productivity is collapsing and America is reliant now more than ever before on the productivity of foreign countries because our trade deficits are exploding. Wait until the dollar implodes. Because the only thing that’s been keeping a lid on inflation has been a relatively strong dollar. Well, I think the dollar is going to roll over and fall dramatically over the next several years, and that is going to cause this inflation problem to be much much worse because it’s really going to push up the price of all of our imports.”
Quelch said he thinks about 30 to 40% of the current inflation is due to supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic, not underlying forces.
Peter took issue with the “supply chain” disruption excuse for rising prices.
Sure, when you shut down an economy, it’s obvious that you’re going to have less supply. You’re producing less. You’re working less. But what should have happened is demand should have gone down too. But unfortunately, the Fed did not allow a healthy decline in demand to meet up with the decline in supply. The Fed made the mistake of showering the economy with money — the worst monetary policy probably in history. When people were not at work and home, the Fed was printing money so the government could mail them checks so they could go out and buy stuff even though they weren’t working to help produce stuff. And so that is the problem. It is all a demand problem created by the Fed — created by money printing. And the money that the Fed is printing is going to continue to lose value, and that’s going to be reflected in rising prices.”
EU NatGas Rally Continues Amid Russian Shipment Plunge; More LNG Tankers Come To Rescue
European natural gas prices soared for the third consecutive session as Russian shipments to the fuel-starved continent remain muted. Elevated gas prices have slapped a hefty price premium, opening up massive arbitrage opportunities for international commodity traders.
Dutch month-ahead gas, the European benchmark, has rallied as much as 42% this week from 65 euros a megawatt-hour to 92 euros on slumping pipeline supply from Russia.
For context, this shift is the BTU/Barrel of oil equivalent of a move from $100 to a $180 barrel of oil…
Russia’s ability to control the European gas market comes as the continent has mismanaged its power grid through green initiatives. With cold weather returning, Europe will deplete even more gas inventories. This may suggest gas is headed back over 100 euros.
Europe’s energy crisis has been a boon for energy traders who have access to liquefied natural gas (LNG) and LNG cargo vessels.
We first reported a flotilla of US LNG tankers were headed to Europe a few weeks ago. Now shipping data from Kpler and Bloomberg show 13 LNG carriers from the U.S. and West Africa are rerouting to Europe instead of Asia. Gas prices in Europe are more expensive relative to Asia, which is why LNG ships are being rerouted to collect a hefty premium. It’s called arbitrage.
Here’s one ship that recently rerouted from Asia to Europe.
So the question Europeans want to know is when will the energy crunch end. Well, the saving grace for the fuel-starved continent is Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline that might not come online until July. It seems like the energy crisis in Europe is far from over.
The market outlook for 2022 remains bullish, as Wall Street veterans suggest that Fed tightening won’t hurt stocks bullish advance. From JP Morgan’s target of 5050 to BMO’s forecast of 5300 on the S&P index, there is little concern that stocks could be lower next year.
Such is undoubtedly understandable after more than a decade of advancing markets, with the last 3-years seeing the market advance more than 50%. The market has weathered 20% corrections from a Fed “taper tantrum” to a 35% rout from a pandemic-driven shutdown. Each time the market rebounded quickly as the Fed jumped into the fray providing accommodative policies.
Our market outlook for 2022 is a bit more conservative than much of Wall Street. While 2022 could be another bullish year for stocks, as bull markets are tough to kill, my job as a portfolio manager is to ensure our clients don’t suffer a permanent impairment to their investment capital.
Given that our client’s portfolios remain allocated toward equity risk, our market outlook focuses on what could go wrong. Such seems a more pragmatic approach than just “hoping” things go right.
While we should always “hope for clear skies and calm seas,” a captain navigates away from the risks to his vessel.
So, what are the risks in 2022 that we should steer clear of?
Market Outlook – The Risk To The Bullish Thesis
Over the last few years in particular, as valuations have become more extreme, the consistently bullish media continue to invent rationals for higher stock prices.
Low interest rates justify high valuations.
There is no alternative (T.I.N.A.)
Monetary policy supports higher prices.
Low inflation supports higher prices
Notably, those rationalizations appeared correct due to the massive flood of monetary and fiscal policy during that period.
So, as we head into 2022, here is a shortlist of the things we are either currently hedging portfolios against or will potentially need to in the future.
Economic growth slows as year-over-year comparisons become far more challenging.
Inflationary pressuresremain more persistent than anticipated which impedes consumption and compresses profit margins.
While analysts on Wall Street are confident the bull market will continue uninterrupted into 2022, there are more than enough risks to derail that market outlook. Importantly, none of these independently suggest a significant correction is imminent. However, the risk is that they will undermine the bullish “psychology” of the market.
The critical component of the “bullish thesis” has been the psychology of the “Fed put.” Regardless of valuation levels, deteriorating fundamentals, or simple logic, the excuse for continuing to take on increasing levels of risk was “Don’t fight the Fed.”
However, therein lies the irony as we head into 2022, the Fed is expected to tighten policy rather quickly. If the logic of rising prices was “don’t fight the Fed’s liquidity,” the argument now is to “fight the Fed’s tightening regime.”
As is always the case, you can’t have it both ways.
A Reversal Of Fortune?
As noted, the unexpected “pandemic-driven economic shutdown” sent the Federal Reserve and Government into fiscal and monetary policy overdrive. Such led to an unimaginable influx of $5 trillion into the economy, sending the “money supply” surging well above the long-term exponential growth trend.
The importance of that “sea of liquidity” is both positive and negative. In the short term, that liquidity supports economic growth, the surge in retail sales into this year, and the explosive recovery in corporate earnings. That liquidity is also flowing into record corporate stock buybacks, retail investing, and a surge in private equity. With all that liquidity sloshing around, it is of no surprise we have seen a near-record surge in the annualized rate of change of the S&P 500 index.
However, as stated, there is a dark side to that liquidity. With the Democrats struggling to pass another stimulus bill, a looming debt ceiling, and the Fed beginning to “taper” their bond purchases, liquidity will reverse next year. As shown below, if we look at the annual rate of change in the S&P 500 compared to our “measure of liquidity” (M2 less GDP), it suggests stocks could be in trouble heading into next year.
While not a perfect correlation, it is high enough to warrant attention. With global central banks cutting back on liquidity, the Government providing less, and inflationary pressures taking care of the rest, it is worth considering increasing risk-management practices.
Sailing In Unchartered Waters
Returning to our “navigation” metaphor, trying to predict what will happen in 2022 is a futile exercise. There are too many variables that can occur that could change outcomes for the better or worse. As I discussed previously, risk management is a process:
First, the only certainty is that there is no certainty. Second, every decision, as a consequence, is a matter of weighing probabilities. Third, despite uncertainty we must decide and we must act. And lastly, we need to judge decisions not only on the results, but on how they were made.
If there are no absolutes, then all decisions become matters of judging the probability of different outcomes, and the costs and benefits of each. Then, on that basis, you can make a good decision.
Managing risk does not mean “being all in cash;” it only means navigating the risks that could cause permanent impairment to your financial plans.
If nothing happens and 2022 is another bullish year. Fantastic. Such will make my job very easy.
However, if an unexpected storm appears on the horizon, taking some actions to navigate safety will provide a much better outcome.
Step Aside “Transitory” Inflation: The Fed Wants To Be Dead Wrong About “Easing Supply Chains” Next
In 2021 the reverse-Robinhood wealth transfer mechanism better known as the Federal Reserve destroyed what little credibility it has by claiming, arrogantly and foolishly, that inflation is transitory for months and month, only to see inflation keep rising in a very non-transitory fashion, until one day Powell bit the bullet and admitted that the Fed – and assorted macrotourist hangers on – had been dead wrong all along and it was now time to “retire” the word “transitory.”
So having learned absolutely nothing from 2021, and eager to continue exposing its career academics in charge of the world’s biggest economy as a bunch of idiots, on Tuesday the New York Fed released a new index meant to evaluate the pressure on global supply chains. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) surged early in the pandemic when China imposed lockdown measures, but pressures eased as production resumed , then picked back up during the winter of 2020 as COVID-19 infections jumped.
The good news: the historically high pressures on global supply chain networks that have contributed to shortages of key goods and materials and a surge in inflation – the same inflation that the Fed claimed all along was “transitory” mind you – may have peaked.
“More recently, the [index] seems to suggest that global supply chain pressures, while still historically high, have peaked and might start to moderate somewhat going forward,” the researchers wrote in a blog post which we will certainly timestamp and revisit in six months time at which point we fully expect global supply chains to be orders of magnitude worse than they are now.
Cynicism aside, the Fed’s supply chain index is based on 27 variables such as shipping rates…
… and air freight costs between the United States, Asia and Europe.
Researchers – who apparently had access to a Bloomberg terminal where the information is literally one click away – found “enormous growth” in shipping costs since the beginning of the recovery from the lows at the start of the pandemic. But that growth has started to slow in recent months.
The researchers also noted that container shipping rates rose more significantly during the most recent economic recovery than after the Global Financial Crisis. But the costs of shipping raw materials, such as coal or steel, rose “on par” with the post-GFC recovery, they added.
Fed researchers said they adjusted for shifts in demand, but noted that the index is “not a perfect” measure and likely still reflects some demand factors. Such as Biden’s trillions made possible by… the Fed’s monetization of the US debt and deficit following the US descent in post-covid MMT idiocy.
One thing that the career academics at the NY Fed who have never had to actually ship any product from Point A to Point B in the world got right is that the index, drawing on data going back to 1997, shows global supply chain pressures are substantially higher now than in previous times of stress.
For example, pressures rose in 2011 after two natural disasters, including an earthquake in Japan and flooding in Thailand. The index rose again during the U.S.-China trade war in 2017 and 2018. But those spikes “pale in comparison to what has been observed since the COVID-19 pandemic began,” researchers wrote.
Of course, even the Fed can get something right. But, more importantly, is it right that global supply chain pressures have peaked and it’s all downhill from here?
Well, let’s look at the evidence. First, as the latest Wells Fargo Supply Chain pressure gauge (yes, the private sector was well ahead of the Fed in coming up with a supply chain congestion index), it’s about as ugly as it has ever been across virtually every vertical: time, volume, price, inventory and labor.
So yes, one can easily claim that just because a series is at its all time high it is bound to reverse, but one can also be very wrong if said series keep rising. Which, incidentally, is what the far more likely case because as Citi’s economists wrote at the end of December, there are no signs of easing in supply chain congestion:
We update our weekly freight data tracker which covers both sea and air freight. In sea freight, US West Coast port congestion has continued to decrease compared to last week. The seven day moving average of vessel capacity at port/anchorage for this week is 0.80m TEU vs. last week’s 0.82m TEU. It is a similar on the US East Coast, with the seven day moving average for this week at 0.71m TEU vs last week’s 0.74m TEU.
Or how about Goldman: yes, the vampire squid which has spawned its share of NY Fed presidents desperately tries to pain a rosy picture, writing in its own weekly “GS Supply Chain Congestion Scale monitor” the following silver lining:
Our weekly congestion index showed sequential improvement once again, and the pace of improvement was greater last week. The 2.7% sequential decline in Week 8 versus Week 7’s 0.3% decline comes with significantly better intermodal rail traffic volumes and continued easing of ocean container shipping rates.
… which is great until one reads the fine print, to wit:
With 97 container ships still waiting to dock, we think those inland trends did not improve materially over last week – but we also take the lack of significant coastal buildup as a sign that things are not getting worse either…. our overall congestion scale remains at level ‘10’ or ‘fully bottlenecked.’
And Goldman is also kind enough to point out the weakest link in all projections of improvement: the Chinese New Year…
… we continue to see the recent sequential improvements as indicative of where supply chains could head by mid year-2022 (barring any major re-spikes in shipping ahead of Chinese New Year).
… and spiking new cases which most likely will lead to new port shutdowns, and even greater transportation bottlenecks.
Oh and incidentally, for the benefit of our friends at the Fed who are taking the modest dip in shipping rates and extrapolating a full-blown normalization, some advice: back in October we warned that what so many then viewed as a major inflection point in shipping rates and a “clear” indication that the worst was behind us, was just a headfake (see “A Dip In Shipping Rates: The End Of The Nightmare, Or Just The Eye Of The Hurricane“). And sure enough…
Then again, NY Fed economists shouldn’t feel too bad: after all upward failing Bloomberg macrotourists such as this one were all too quick to make a similar flawed extrapolation and take the drop in lumber prices as a victory for camp transitory, not to mention trolling an entire audience too dumb to realize it…
When I was tweeting about lumber going up, some people were snarking that that was the sign of the top. And now I’m tweeting about it going down and people are saying that’s the sign of the bottom. Folks, I just like to tweet whether the line is moving up or down.
A January 6 defendant being held in Virginia is extremely ill and at risk of dying because the jail refuses to provide proper medical care and a special diet for his celiac disease, New York attorney Joseph McBride alleges.
“They’re starving the guy out,” McBride told The Epoch Times.
“They have moved him six times since he’s been detained. We can’t send him to a facility that’s not going to be able to take care of him.”
Quaglin’s case is the most recent in a series of allegations that January 6 defendants have been beaten, tortured, and denied food and proper medical care in federal custody. A group of 14 lawmakers on Jan. 3 sent a letter (pdf) to Michael Carvajal, director of the federal Bureau of Prisons, demanding “you use your authority to investigate this abuse or we will use our authority to investigate your failure.”
“Many instances of physical and psychological abuse, denial of medical care, 24-hour solitary confinement, denial of basic personal hygiene, denial of access to legal counsel, destruction of records, and general abuse of rights and mandated standards for prisoners have been brought to our attention,” the lawmakers wrote. The letter was organized by Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Louisiana) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Georgia).
Christopher J. Quaglin of New Jersey is charged in federal court with assaulting multiple law enforcement officers during rioting at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. He is being held pending trial at the Northern Neck Regional Jail in Warsaw, Va., the sixth facility to house him since he was charged in April.
McBride said the jail has not provided the gluten-free diet Quaglin needs to survive, and exposed him to inmates and guards with coronavirus that caused him to develop COVID-19. He was then placed in solitary confinement, McBride said.
“If somebody has celiac disease, the food has to be prepared the same way a Jewish person’s kosher food would be prepared: separate,” McBride said. “Everything needs to be separated, because if there is cross-contamination you can kill him. He lost close to 20 pounds now since the 21st of December.”
McBride said if Quaglin isn’t moved to a hospital for treatment and given a proper diet, he could die. Repeated complaints to the jail have gone nowhere, he said.
McBride sent a certified letter on Dec. 31 to Ronald Jett, vice-chairman of the Northern Neck Regional Jail Board, alleging that Quaglin’s civil rights are being violated. That letter came after a sharply worded email exchange between McBride and Ted Hull, superintendent of the Northern Neck Regional Jail.
In his first email reply on Dec. 28, Hull complained about McBride’s tone. “You are NOT in a position to demand anything and you will find me less than helpful if you continue to act in this manner,” Hull wrote, according to a copy of the email provided to The Epoch Times.
“For the record, while New York has the reputation of being filled with people like you, as a rule y’all neither impress nor intimidate anyone,” Hull wrote. “Document anything you like or call anybody you like … it will not change anything. The inmate is receiving the appropriate level of cate (sic). Stating completely fictitious assertions is nothing more than an obvious attempt at intimidation. And unfortunately, you lack the ability to intimidate anyone.”
In a Dec. 30 email, McBride made a legal demand that Quaglin be moved to a hospital for emergency care and be given a celiac-safe diet. He also alleged the jail eavesdropped on an attorney-client conversation and is preventing McBride from having regular video contact with Quaglin.
“We remind you that Mr. Quaglin is a pretrial detainee, not an inmate, as such it is illegal to punish him,” McBride wrote.
A Dec. 30 email reply from Hull called McBride’s demands “pointless” and said Quaglin’s needs “are being addressed.” He said Quaglin “is just another inmate and he will receive exactly what every other inmate receives. Which is exactly what he is supposed to … nothing more, nothing less.
“If you want to take legal action … then take it,” Hull wrote. “Politeness and professional courtesy preclude me from telling you how I feel about your ‘demands’ and your obvious lack of manners. However, my oh-so-subtle disregard for both might provide you a clue on to (sic) how I feel about them. You will do well to understand that ‘please’ is a much more useful word. Without it, I afraid (sic) it is going to be tough sledding for you.”
Celiac disease is an autoimmune disorder that causes small-intestine damage when a person eats food containing gluten, a protein found in wheat, barley, and rye. The intestinal damage can prevent absorption of nutrients and cause symptoms such as weight loss, fatigue, diarrhea, bloating, and anemia, according to the Mayo Clinic.
Quaglin had been housed at the District of Columbia jail and met with U.S. Reps. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas) and Greene when they made an investigatory tour of the jail. His photo was included on the cover of “Unusually Cruel,” a report (pdf) on the jail issued by Greene in December.
“The jail retaliated against him,” McBride said. “Marjorie and Louie were there on the 4th. Christoper was moved from there in the middle of the night to Lewisburg on the 9th. From Lewisburg, he was moved to Alexandria and from Alexandria to Northern Neck. This is all retaliatory, punitive.”
“Every time he’s moved to a new facility, he has had issues,” McBride said. “Sometimes they get it right after a while, but that requires him to suffer for a month or so. Other times they don’t even have time to get it right because by the time they get close to getting it right, they move him again. He has been moved three times since Nov. 9. This facility has been far and away the worst in terms of his food.”
McBride said lacking a resolution of his concerns, he will file a writ of habeas corpus and seek Quaglin’s release.
WTI Slides Back Below $78 As Gasoline Demand Plunges
Oil prices extended their recent gains overnight with WTI topping $78 after very mixed data from API. The recent rally comes as OPEC+ continue to drip-feed production output at 400,000 barrels a day, as the cartel estimates a crude surplus in the first quarter.
Concerns about the Covid-19 omicron variant effect on demand may be somewhat overblown if it broadly continues to yield less-severe illness, which bodes well for crude-oil demand in the long term.
Still Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Energy Analyst Vince Piazza may face near-term headwinds from U.S. monetary policy.
API
Crude -6.432mm (-3.65mm exp) – biggest draw since Aug 2021
Cushing +2.268mm
Gasoline +7.061mm – biggest build since April 2020
Distillates +4.38mm – biggest build since June 2021
DOE
Crude -2.144mm (-3.65mm exp)
Cushing +2.577mm – biggest build since Feb 2021
Gasoline +10.128mm – biggest build since April 2020
Distillates +4.418mm – biggest build since June 2021
Airline staffing shortages and weather disruptions forced thousands of flight cancellations over the past two weeks appear to have impacted product inventories dramatically, along with the plunge in gasoline demand…
Source: Bloomberg
US gasoline demand fell by the most since April 2020…
Source: Bloomberg
Cushing crude stocks grew another week, making it now two months of growing inventories at the commercial storage hub. The storage depot is now sitting at the largest volume since July, after the biggest increase since February.
Crude production was flat week over week, at its highest since May 2020…
WTI slipped back below $78 after the big surprise product builds….
Lawrence Alexander is a professor at the University of San Diego School of Law. He is known for having co-authored an infamous article in The Philadelphia Inquirer with University of Pennsylvania law professor Amy Wax arguing that the decline of “bourgeois values” in the U.S. was associated with various negative social developments. They wrote:
That culture laid out the script we all were supposed to follow: Get married before you have children and strive to stay married for their sake. Get the education you need for gainful employment, work hard, and avoid idleness. Go the extra mile for your employer or client. Be a patriot, ready to serve the country. Be neighborly, civic-minded, and charitable. Avoid coarse language in public. Be respectful of authority. Eschew substance abuse and crime.
These basic cultural precepts reigned from the late 1940s to the mid-1960s. They could be followed by people of all backgrounds and abilities, especially when backed up by almost universal endorsement. Adherence was a major contributor to the productivity, educational gains, and social coherence of that period.
Now Alexander is facing an even more obvious violation of basic principles of academic freedom; he was recently asked by the Emory Law Journal—a publication of Emory University’s law school—to contribute to a “festschrift” on the works of Michael Perry, an Emory law professor. A festschrift is a collection of writings intended to honor a particular scholar, even if they critique elements of that scholar’s thinking.
Alexander’s contribution was indeed critical of Perry’s work on disparate racial impact and equal protection. “I focus on it, not to find a bone to pick somewhere in Michael’s
impressive body of work, but because his error in that early work has an analogue in today’s political discourse, which makes that error of many years past of contemporary importance,” wrote Alexander.
He writes from a conservative perspective, and undoubtedly takes a view that the presumably liberal editors of the Emory Law Journal disagree with. But they did not merely register that disagreement and proceed with publication: They told Alexander the essay was racist and would have to be substantially revised.
“We take issue with your conversation on systemic racism, finding your words hurtful and unnecessarily divisive,” wrote Danielle Kerker Goldstein, the editor in chief. “Additionally, there are various instances of insensitive language use throughout the essay (e.g., widespread use of the objectifying term ‘blacks’ and ‘the blacks’ (pages 2, 3, 6, 8, etc.); the discussions on criminality and heredity (pages 11 and 14), the uncited statement that thankfully racism is not an issue today (page 18)). And, crucially, the discussion on racism is not strongly connected to your commentary on Professor Perry’s work, which is the focus of the Issue and the purpose behind the publication opportunity offered.”
Kerker Goldstein did not respond to a request for comment.
Readers can take a look at the essay and judge for themselves. Speaking only for myself, I have a hard time agreeing that the language is insensitive and objectifying. Alexander does indeed refer to “black” and “blacks,” but he also refers to “white” and “whites.” He invokes criminality and heredity merely to set the matter aside entirely. And his views on whether racism is an important issue today are certainly relevant to his rejection of Perry’s philosophy.
Alexander refused to modify the piece. “I wrote about how I see the racial situation in the U.S. today,” he tells Reason. “The editors found my views to be ‘hurtful’ and refused to publish them, despite the fact that I had been invited to write for a festschrift issue in their journal.”
Two other contributors have withdrawn their submissions in protest of how the journal treated Alexander. The point of the festschrift is to include a range of perspectives on Perry; singling out Alexander’s undermines the validity of the project.
“This opera isn’t over,” wrote Gail Heriot, a professor of law at the University of San Diego Law School and a contributor to the Volokh Conspiracy, which is hosted on this website. “Two law professors (one conservative and one liberal) have withdrawn their essays from the ELJ in protest over its treatment of Larry. Two more professors, both of whom I believe to be left of center, have said that they will publish only if they can include a blurb in front of their essays that protests the decision not to publish Larry. They do not necessarily agree with everything in Larry’s essay. But standing up for him doesn’t require agreement.”
