May College Students Sue Pseudonymously to Challenge Discipline for COVID Protocol Violations?

Yes, said Judge Sidney Stein last year in Doe v. NYU (S.D.N.Y.):

Most relevantly, the Court believes that in this action, “identification poses a risk of retaliatory physical or mental harm to the party seeking to proceed anonymously.”  Doe is 19 years old and in her first year of college, and though she of course made the decision to bring this lawsuit, the Court sees no reason to expose her to potential online retaliation for what some might characterize as reckless or selfish conduct. And, given her stated career goals, plaintiff represents that revealing her identity in a lawsuit pertaining to her violations of COVID-19 protocols could impede her progress.

The Court believes that NYU has sufficiently demonstrated the gravity of its COVID-19 disciplinary regime by forcefully litigating, and now prevailing on, Doe’s challenge to its enforcement efforts. The equities here weigh in favor of maintaining Doe’s anonymity.

No, said Magistrate Judge Mark Dinsmore yesterday in Doe v. Trustees of Indiana University (S.D. Ind.), expressly disagreeing with Doe v. NYU:

Plaintiff asks to proceed under a pseudonym “due to the nature of the allegations” in his Complaint and because he “is justifiably concerned about the potential irreparable harm that could further prevent him from proceeding with his future endeavors.” Defendants object, arguing that this case does not present the kind of “exceptional circumstances” that justify anonymity….

Here, Plaintiff argues that pseudonymity is appropriate because “he would be required to disclose information that is highly sensitive and controversial in the present climate, depending on individual views,” namely that he, “a fraternity member, is accused of violating COVID restrictions.” He continues:

COVID is an extremely volatile issue in today’s society with differing opinions as to the need for continued regulations. Every individual, institution, State and political party has differing views on the handling of COVID. Given the sensitive and novel nature of the subject matter, the need for anonymity and protection seems clear. Exposing Plaintiff to such societal differences and potential prejudices justifies the need to proceed anonymously, particularly given the constantly changing laws and CDC recommendations as discussed in more detail in the Complaint.

However, Plaintiff presents no concrete examples of the type of intimate information that revealing his identity would force him to disclose. This is especially clear given that Plaintiff does not dispute that he “and his four housemates, also members of his fraternity, hosted a social gathering in their private off-campus residence” on April 23, 2021, to which the Bloomington Police Department and Indiana University Police Department responded.

Indeed, it appears that Plaintiff would simply prefer not to attach his name to his admitted conduct. “No doubt lots of parties would prefer to keep their disputes private. For example, a plaintiff alleging he was discriminated against by his employer when his employment was terminated will have to disclose the employer’s reason for terminating the plaintiff’s employment—a reason that the plaintiff disputes is the real reason and which is often embarrassing or even damaging to his or her reputation. But there is no suggestion that such a plaintiff may proceed under a pseudonym to protect his or her reputation.” …

Plaintiff argues that, “[i]f the Court requires Plaintiff to reveal his identity, even if he ultimately obtains a favorable verdict on his claims, his future academic and career prospects could be significantly affected, depending on the views of future employers and institutions.” Specifically, Plaintiff asserts that he will suffer harm in the form of “emotional and reputational damages, economic injuries, the loss of educational and career opportunities and future earnings,” and points to “the loss of employment by a big four accounting firm … and the loss of membership in a national fraternity.”

Ultimately, “Plaintiff’s concerns in this case are centered upon his economic well-being and possible embarrassment or humiliation, but courts have generally rejected attempts to proceed under fictitious names based solely on such concerns.” A movant must show that his “specific circumstances demonstrate a risk of serious social stigmatization surpassing a general fear of embarrassment” for a court to consider such harms when deciding whether the movant should proceed anonymously. Plaintiff has not done so here.

Plaintiff additionally elaborates that his violation of COVID restrictions could “subject him to retaliation by students, student groups, and university administrators who are in favor of more restrictive regulations.” It is true that “[t]he danger of retaliation is often a compelling ground for allowing a party to litigate anonymously.” However, “[a] mere potential for retaliation, without more, is not enough to justify an extraordinary departure from public norms.” “To demonstrate retaliatory harm, plaintiffs must generally provide ‘evidence that psychological damage or violent threats are anticipated if a party’s identify is disclosed.'” There is no such evidence here. Further, it is worth noting once more that Plaintiff does not dispute that he hosted the April 23, 2021, party; he is suing on the grounds that the University’s subsequent proceedings deprived him of due process. As such, Plaintiff’s arguments arising from COVID-based stigma are somewhat misplaced.

That said, another relevant factor is “whether the injury litigated against would be incurred as a result of the disclosure of the plaintiff’s identity.” Here, if Plaintiff is successful in proving that Defendants’ procedures violated his due process rights, there is a chance that “the revelation of the Plaintiff’s identity [in the course of this lawsuit] ‘would further exacerbate the emotional and reputational injuries he alleges.'” However, both the Purdue Univ. and Colgate Univ. cases dealt with sexual assault allegations, and the courts were concerned with the possibility of a college student being “marked for life as a sexual predator.”

The same depth of concern is not necessarily present here; a student reprimanded for breaking COVID-19 protocols will not wear the same scarlet letter as a student reprimanded for sexual violence against another student. Ultimately, the potential harm identified by Plaintiff “pales in comparison to the types of harms that typically receive protection.” While Plaintiff’s desire to proceed under a pseudonym is understandable, his reasons “are not sufficient to overcome the strong presumption in favor of requiring parties to sue using their true names.”

Accordingly, because Plaintiff has not provided sufficient evidence of concrete harms he will suffer if made to litigate under his real name, the third factor weighs AGAINST a grant of pseudonymity….

Plaintiff argues that, because “Defendants are already aware of Plaintiff’s true identity,” they will “not be prejudiced in any way by the use of a pseudonym.” However, that is not necessarily true. Defendants argue that they “will be prejudiced at all phases of the litigation” if Plaintiff is allowed to proceed under a pseudonym. Defendants elaborate:

The Defendants may need to gain discovery from third-party witnesses, including depositions and document requests. It is complicated at best for Defendants to obtain third-party discovery pertaining to the Plaintiff if his name is anonymous. Defendants will also be prejudiced by being forced to refer to the Plaintiff by pseudonym at a jury trial. Courts have recognized, for example, that jurors could construe the court’s permission for the plaintiff to conceal his true identity “as a subliminal comment on the harm the alleged encounter … has caused the plaintiff.” Jurors could also interpret the fact that the Plaintiff, who remains anonymous, is more vulnerable and sympathetic than the Defendants who are individually named. The use of a pseudonym will have an unpredictable effect on a jury, which prejudices the Defendants.

These are valid concerns which, ultimately, are not outweighed by Plaintiff’s asserted privacy rights….

[T]he Court will [also] consider “the public interest in guaranteeing open access to proceedings without denying litigants access to the justice system.” “Indeed, ‘lawsuits are public events and the public has a legitimate interest in knowing the facts involved in them. Among those facts is the identity of the parties.'”

Plaintiff argues that “the public’s interest in this matter would not be furthered by disclosing Plaintiff’s identity.” Critically, though, the disclosure of a plaintiff’s identity is the standard which the public is entitled to; pseudonymity is only acceptable in “exceptional circumstances.” As such, the public’s interest in the longstanding notion of openness of federal proceedings would be hampered by allowing Plaintiff to use a fictitious name—especially here, where Plaintiff has failed to establish how his case constitutes an exceptional circumstance warranting anonymity….

In sum, Plaintiff has not established “a privacy right so substantial as to outweigh the ‘customary and constitutionally-embedded presumption of openness in judicial proceedings.'” Plaintiff, as the movant, has failed to meet his burden of “show[ing] that some combination of these factors outweighs the ordinary presumption of judicial openness, justifying the exercise of the Court’s discretion.” As a result, this case does not present the type of “exceptional circumstances” which warrant permitting Plaintiff to proceed under a pseudonym. Plaintiff “must step into the light and sue in the open, or not at all.”

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JPM Urges Clients To “Stay Bullish” As Positive Catalysts “Are Not Exhausted”

JPM Urges Clients To “Stay Bullish” As Positive Catalysts “Are Not Exhausted”

With stocks suddenly swooning today in delayed response to the spike in yields and steepening in yield curves – where various theories have emerged to explain the move, chief among them bets that the spread of omicron will increase inflationary pressures on the US economy – everyone’s favorite market cheerleader is out with a weekly dose of optimism.

Unlike Morgan Stanley, whose chief equity strategist Michael Wilson continues to spew fire and brimstone (see ““Valuations Fully Reset This Spring” – New Year, Same Old Bearish Michael Wilson“), JPMorgan has traditionally been a source of encouragement for market bulls, and today was no difference. Perhaps sensing the skepticism among markets, the bank’s head of global equity strategy Misla Matejka had some words of encouragement in his inaugural for 2022, 190-page Equity Strategy slideshow: “Stay bullish –positive catalysts are not exhausted.

According to the JPMoran strategist, “there is further upside for stocks, despite a strong run so far, and have argued in our  December Chartbook that the dip driven by Omicron scare should be bought into.” Echoing what Marko Kolanovic (and we) said about a month ago, the Croatian strategist writes that Omicron “is proving to be milder than the prior ones and the adverse impact on mobility much more manageable.” As a result, the bank believes that the new variant is unlikely to be a game changer…

… and while COVID cases have spiked, they are unlikely to lead to significant restrictions.

… and even if the Omicron response proves to be more draconian than expected, reopening plays “have been soft ever since last March”, suggesting there is more of a cushion.

Covid aside, JPM believes that fundamentally, the growth backdrop is likely to stay supportive: “We believe that China activity deceleration is by now largely behind us, with more favorable policy backdrop coming up, while Chinese credit concerns are expected to stay contained.”

Echoing what we discussed at the end of December, JPM points out that China’s credit impulse is at the low end of the historical range, and likely bottoming out. As a result, JPM economists are looking for a move up in China real GDP growth, from -3.3% qoqin Q3 ‘21, to +7% in Q2 ‘22.

Additionally, JPM says that there are “signs of supply constraints potentially passing their worst point” (we disagree as we will show in a subsequent post), and of power prices surge easing. Meanwhile, Matejka says that the labor market, key driver of consumer, is staying strong, and the Citigroup Economic Surprise Indexes in main regions are back into positive territory, especially since the mobility dip driven by Omicron is nothing on the scale of the past winter.

Finally, the largest US commercial bank doesn’t see key central banks getting incrementally more hawkish, relative to what is already priced into the futures markets.

Here is a summary of JPM’s key bullish views:

  1. Post the activity deceleration seen in summer, the pace of growth is likely to stabilize into 2022, with a number of areas of concern receding. JPM economists project 2022 to be another year of real GDP growth beating the trend. Eurozone in particular stands out, with 2022 real GDP forecast at 4.6% yoy, above the US for the first time since 2016. Inventories are very low and their replenishing should be a tailwind. Fiscal support is still there and credit spreads remain very well behaved.
  2. Fed is unlikely to keep moving further and further into hawkish territory in the 1H of ‘22, at least relative to what is priced in currently. This holds for ECB too. Headline inflation is likely peaking, which will result in steeper curves => a tailwind for stocks.Inflation forwards and bond yields continue to show a large gap, which could close from both sides. Real rates are likely to move up. USD is not starting this year from record short position, as it did last year.
  3. JPM continues to see gains for earnings, and believe that consensus projections for 2022 will again prove too low. Q4 of 2021EPS is expected by consensus to be sequentially below Q3, which doesn’t typically happen. Strong beats are likely for the Q4 reporting season, where the results will start coming out in next weeks.
  4. In absolute terms, P/E multiples are elevated, but not equity yields vs credit & bond yields. Notably, there was some multiple compression last year,driven by very strong EPS growth, and Matejka expects in 2022 there will be further, mild and benign, P/E compression. The cushion before rising yields hurt the overall market remains significant.
  5. The overall technical picture is favorable, with equities typically performing well at the start of the year.

JPM’s chronically positive outlook comes as stocks in both the U.S. and Europe trade at record highs, following last year’s ferocious rally on the back of unprecedented fiscal stimulus and a solid rebound from the pandemic-induced slump. 

Looking ahead, while JPM sees continued upside in the US, it has US stocks at a Neutral rating, but is especially bullish on Europe (where it is OW) and the UK after 6 years of JPM’s “cautious stance”, while it views EMs/China as an “opportunity” to wit:

  • Since Q2&Q3 of last year, JPM has been highlighting tactical headwinds to EM, ranging from China credit impulse weakening, stronger USD, but also the continued regulatory uncertainty in China, and relatively greater COVID-19 pressure for EM vs DM. Consequently, “EM equities performed poorly last year, down 21% vs DM. This could end up a good entry point, as the various headwinds are likely to become less problematic,” in JPM’s view, which recently exited its cautious EM call, and thinks EM equities are likely to start to perform better in 2022.

  • OW Eurozone. Eurozone backdrop appears very encouraging with respect to vaccinations, pace of growth and the level of policy support. Eurozone is delivering strong earnings rebound, is trading cheap, and is a beneficiary of stable peripheral spreads. The Recovery Fund began to be implemented and the labor market is resilient. Crucially, if real rates start rising, that would be a relative tailwind for the region, as would any turn for the better in China. Within Eurozone, JPM prefers domestic plays to exporters, and periphery to core.
  • OW UK. JPM upgraded the UK to OW last quarter, taking advantage of its 6 years of underperformance. UK is trading at a record discount vs other regions, even when Value sectors are taken out. UK equity performance with respect to a number of macro variables appears to be changing, with correlation to bond yields direction turning positive. According to the bank, BoE hiking is unlikely to be a problem for UK market direction, and there are signs of certain bottlenecks, in labour markets and in power prices, easing. FTSE100 should be helped by potentially weaker GBP, as well as by likely turn in China. Finally, UK offers the highest dividend yield globally, which is well covered this time around. Within UK, JPM is now OW FTSE100vs FTSE250.
  • Neutral Japan. The medium term outlook for Japan doesn’t appear exciting, especially if JGB yields stay constrained. The bank’s FI team is projecting only a few basis points move higher in yields from current levels. JPM economists believe that the policies of the new administration will be less focused on driving growth upside, and more on the redistribution.
  • Neutral US. US had a renewed period of outperformance since March, as FANGs dominated. Big picture, JPM warns that the US is trading at new relative P/E and EPS highs, and could stall relatively if the Tech outperformance starts to wane.
  • UW parts of RoW, given low beta to global equities, and inverse correlation to bond yields, focused on Switzerland, HK and New Zealand.

Looking at the bigger, cross-asset picture, Matejka writes that the yield curve has been flattening since March of last year, given the worsening Growth-Policy tradeoff, and this led to relatively narrow internal leadership since, Quality driven. The strategist believes that this will change again entering 2022, and look for the yield curve to re-steepen, with higher bond yields.

As regards commodity equities, the bank had a non-consensus call entering Q2 ‘21, arguing that their rally was likely to fade, given stretched positioning, peaking China credit impulse and potentially firmer USD. While some of these pressures are not going away, and the structural problems for Energy remain acute, the bank upgraded Energy in August, given its 20-30% underperformance during the summer, as “the gap with the underlying is wide, and could show some catch up.” JPM is also Overweight Mining, upgraded last quarter, on a likely turn up in China activity in the 1H of this year, after a very poor showing in the past few quarters. Beyond this tactical opportunity though, the bank notes a more mixed longer term outlook for China real estate.

Looking at sectors, Matejka has the following recos:

OW Banks. Banks are the key play on potentially rising yields and on the re-steepening of the yield curve this year. They still look very cheap, on 0.7x P/B, their balance sheets are resilient this time around, with no need for dilution, dividends are returning to the sector with a healthy 4.9% yield, and earnings are moving higher.

Consumer reopening trade to pick up again, as 4th wave and Omicron scares subside. As such, JPM is OW Autos on a likely easing in supply pressures and still strong consumer outlook.

Neutral Tech. The bank held an OW Tech in 2020, as well as the whole of 2019, but took profits in Hardware and Software at the start of November ‘20. And while Matejka believes that Tech fundamentals are supportive, through strong balance sheets, significant buybacks and structural tailwinds making this a very different setup to 2001, the relative outperformance was dramatic and the cyclical backdrop for Tech is less positive, especially if real rates start rising.  –see pages 165-167.

Within Tech, JPM has kept in 2021an OW in Semis, but last month took profits, given very strong outperformance, where European Semis were up 69% in 2021.

Finally, the bank remains UW traditional Defensives–Real Estate, Staples and Healthcare, on unexciting valuations, mixed earnings delivery and potentially rising bond yields.

As Bloomberg notes, JPMorgan’s strategists are not alone in their generally bullish view: Credit Suisse this week reiterated a bullish view on US stocks, while Societe Generale on Tuesday repeated a forecast for a 6.6% return for European stocks this year, writing that “this bull market is not over.” Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and the BlackRock Investment Institute also see upside, albeit at a more muted pace.

The full, 190-page JPM report is available to professional subs in the usual place.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/04/2022 – 14:00

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Trimmed Mean Inflation Is The Ultimate Absurdity In Inflation Measures

Trimmed Mean Inflation Is The Ultimate Absurdity In Inflation Measures

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Just for grins, I started investigating the Dallas Fed’s alternative measurement of core inflation called “Trimmed Mean”…

What is Trimmed Mean PCE?

Fred, the St. Louis Fed website offers this Explanation of Trimmed Mean PCE

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The data series is calculated by the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Calculating the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from “fell the most” to “rose the most,” and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are thrown out or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. The trimmed mean inflation rate is a proxy for true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional “excluding food and energy” measure as a gauge of core inflation.

A Dallas Fed Working Paper offers this assessment. 

Trimmed-mean inflation is the superior communications and policy tool because it is a less-biased real-time estimator of headline inflation and because it more successfully filters out headline inflation’s transitory variation, leaving only cyclical and trend components.  

Measure Comparison

  • Essentially the Dallas Fed says lets throw out the top and bottom items of the PCE and average the rest.

  • The PCE stands for Personal Consumption indicators and is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

  • PCE differs from the CPI in that it counts expenses paid on behalf of consumers such as medical insurance.

  • The Consumer Price Index weights rent much higher than the PCE which in turn weights medical higher. 

Even with that explanation it’s not quite clear how the Dallas Fed fabricates a preposterous 2.8% year-over-year measure of inflation. 

A chart download shows the magic of throwing out “a certain fraction” from both ends to “outperform” conventional measures.

Items Chopped Off the Bottom

I am a bit amused that the price of food supplied to to the military and school lunches went down by 49.2% annualized in one month but hey, OK. 

Items Chopped Off the Top

Inquiring minds who want to see the entire chopping block and what’s included can download the data at from the Dallas Fed

Look for the link that says “components included and excluded“. 

Chopping Methodology

  • The Dallas Fed chopped off items with a combined weight of 24.07% from the low end.

  • This was “balanced” by chopping off items with a weight of 32.50% (100-67.5) at the top end.

  • Everything that went up by more than 9% annualized was chopped off the top culminating with gasoline up 103.5% and air transportation up 112.7%.

Ultimately, the Dallas Fed discarded 56.57% of the entire PCE, heavily weighted by discarding high inflation items to arrive at a preposterous 2.8% year-over-year measure of inflation. 

Looking back, it’s easy to see why they would come up with this. 

Outperformance Then and Now

  • When the CPI peaked at 14.8% in 1980, this brilliantly constructed “designed to outperform” measure peaked at 8.6%. 

  • Today the CPI is 6.8%, trimmed mean PCE at 2.8%, and PCE at 5.7%. 

If that’s not “outperformance” what is? 

Hopefully nobody takes this seriously, but the Dallas Fed pushes this as an alternative measure every month. 

Every Measure of Real Interest Rates Shows the Fed is Out of Control

Bad things happen when the Fed ignores asset bubbles. And the way to ignore asset bubbles is to pretend housing, land prices, speculation in Bitcoin, and insane stock market valuations are not inflation.

It’s difficult to state the inflation effect on stocks or Bitcoin but housing is one most human beings easily see even though the Fed and Martian economists can’t.

On December 29, I commented Every Measure of Real Interest Rates Shows the Fed is Out of Control

My housing-adjusted CPI measure stands at 9.31%. See link for details.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/04/2022 – 13:45

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Columbia University Professor Andreas Wimmer Questions “Race-Centrism”

In the course of the research for my forthcoming book, Classified: The Untold Story of Racial Classification in America (now available for pre-order!), I read several hundred books and articles about race and ethnicity in the United States, some of which turned out be directly related my book; others turned to be more peripheral. One of the more remarkable articles in the latter category is Andreas Wimmer, Race-centrism: A Critique and a Resaerch Agenda, published in Ethnic and Racial Studies in 2015. It’s remarkable both because Wimmer questions accepted truisms among sociologists and anthropologists who write about race, and because Wimmer engaged in such questioning as a professor at Princeton (he is now at Columbia). As VC readers well-know, questioning widely-accepted academic views about race in the United States is not exactly the most direct route to academic prominence.

Here is an excerpt:

[Three prominent recent academic books on race] base their analyses on five axiomatic assumptions that together form what I call the paradigm of race-centrism. First, race is the primary principle of stratification in the USA. Second, all racial inequality can be explained by the racism (explicit or implicit, conscious or not) of the white majority and/or the state
institutions that operate on its behalf. Third, racial inequality has transformed but not lessened, or even worsened over the past fifty years. Fourth, racial groups
represent collective actors with shared interests and outlooks on the world. And fifth, race plays a similarly structuring role around the world.

These axioms of race-centrism, I suggest, need to be opened up to critical scrutiny and the empirical exploration of alternative possible interpretations, empirical
generalizations and analytical stances. In other words, rather than treating them as axiomatic truths, to be defended against the common intellectual-political enemy of
‘colour-blindness’, they should be taken as argumentative tenets in search of confirmation. I will discuss each of these five assumptions subsequently, explore
what empirical and analytical questions they raise, and discuss which other processes and mechanisms need to be brought into the analytical and empirical picture and
properly disentangled from the ones that race-centrism focuses upon.

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Andrew Cuomo Skates On Breast-Fondling Case After Albany DA Drops Sexual Assault Charges

Andrew Cuomo Skates On Breast-Fondling Case After Albany DA Drops Sexual Assault Charges

Andrew Cuomo may have resigned amid a flood of sexual harassment allegations, but the former Democratic Governor of New York will skate on criminal sexual assault charges filed in late October, which Attorney General Letitia James sought to have dismissed.

Former Cuomo staffer Brittany Commisso filed the criminal complaint

According to a one-page complaint from the Albany County Sheriff’s Office, Cuomo is accused of forcibly touching “Executive Assistant #1” – later identified as Brittany Commisso, while in a ‘forced hug. ‘

The unidentified victim lodged the most serious accusation against the governor detailed in AG James’ report, alleging he pulled her in for a hug, reached under her blouse and fondled one of her breasts in the Executive Mansion in Albany on Nov. 16.

The victim also told investigators that Cuomo groped her after asking her to snap selfies inside his office at the Executive Mansion on Dec. 31, 2019. –NY Post

None of that matters now, however.

“Albany County District Attorney David Soares announced today that a thorough and independent review of the investigation into the allegations against former Governor Andrew Cuomo has concluded,” the DA’s office said in a statement. “While many have an opinion regarding the allegations against the former Governor, the Albany County DA’s Office is the only one who has a burden to prove the elements of a crime beyond a reasonable doubt. While we found the complainant in this case cooperative and credible, after review of all the available evidence we have concluded that we cannot meet our burden at trial,” DA David Soares said in a Tuesday statement reported by the NY Post.

As such we have notified the Court that we are declining to prosecute this matter and requesting the charges filed by the Albany County Sheriff be dismissed.”

Sources confirmed Brittany Commisso — the former Cuomo staffer and current state worker who filed the criminal complaint against Cuomo with the Albany Sheriff’s Office for groping her in the Executive Mansion in Albany — met with the Albany DA’s office on Monday and was told the office would not prosecute the case. -NY Post

“I, like most New Yorkers, remain deeply troubled by allegations like the ones at issue here. Such conduct has no place in government or in any workplace. Although avenues for criminal prosecution in these cases are sometimes limited, I encourage victims of workplace harassment and abuse to continue to come forward and bring these issues to light so that these important discussions can continue,” said DA Soares.

“The decision to discontinue criminal prosecution is unrelated to any possible civil liability, which is beyond the scope of a District Attorney’s jurisdiction.”

According to Commisso’s attorney, Brian Premo, “In this case my client had no control over the filing or prosecution of criminal charges. She had no authority or voice in those decisions. The only thing she has any power over is her resolution to continue to speak the truth and seek justice in an appropriate civil action, which she will do in due course.”

More cleanup

As the Post also notes, it was revealed on Monday that the Manhattan DA has dropped its probe into Cuomo’s nursing home scandal. Meanwhile, last week the former Governor was let off the hook for inappropriately touching a female state trooper and kissing random women while he was in office.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/04/2022 – 13:21

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3eQnF2P Tyler Durden

Columbia University Professor Andreas Wimmer Questions “Race-Centrism”

In the course of the research for my forthcoming book, Classified: The Untold Story of Racial Classification in America (now available for pre-order!), I read several hundred books and articles about race and ethnicity in the United States, some of which turned out be directly related my book others more peripheral. One of the more remarkable articles in the latter category is Andreas Wimmer, Race-centrism: A Critique and a Resaerch Agenda, published in Ethnic and Racial Studies in 2015. It’s remarkable both because Wimmer questions accepted truisms among sociologists and anthropologists who write about race, and because Wimmer engaged in such questioning as a professor at Princeton (he is now at Columbia). As VC readers well-know, questioning widely-accepted academic views about race in the United States is not exactly the most direct route to academic prominence.

Here is an excerpt:

[Three prominent recent academic books on race] base their analyses on five axiomatic assumptions that together form what I call the paradigm of race-centrism. First, race is the primary principle of stratification in the USA. Second, all racial inequality can be explained by the racism (explicit or implicit, conscious or not) of the white majority and/or the state
institutions that operate on its behalf. Third, racial inequality has transformed but not lessened, or even worsened over the past fifty years. Fourth, racial groups
represent collective actors with shared interests and outlooks on the world. And fifth, race plays a similarly structuring role around the world.

These axioms of race-centrism, I suggest, need to be opened up to critical scrutiny and the empirical exploration of alternative possible interpretations, empirical
generalizations and analytical stances. In other words, rather than treating them as axiomatic truths, to be defended against the common intellectual-political enemy of
‘colour-blindness’, they should be taken as argumentative tenets in search of confirmation. I will discuss each of these five assumptions subsequently, explore
what empirical and analytical questions they raise, and discuss which other processes and mechanisms need to be brought into the analytical and empirical picture and
properly disentangled from the ones that race-centrism focuses upon.

The post Columbia University Professor Andreas Wimmer Questions "Race-Centrism" appeared first on Reason.com.

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“Fake It Till You Make It”: The Holmes Conviction Is An Indictment Of Business And Media Practices

“Fake It Till You Make It”: The Holmes Conviction Is An Indictment Of Business And Media Practices

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The conviction of Elizabeth Holmes in 4 out of 12 counts was a measured verdict by the jury which spent weeks combing through the debris from her epic fall. Indeed, as with other high-profile cases in 2021, this jury showed our system at the best in carefully deliberating and reaching balanced conclusions. The jury saw criminal fraud in Holmes’ dealings with investors while rejecting such claims with regard to patients. (It also hung on three counts). The distinction between the investors and patients was nuanced but principled. What the jury did not consider are those who helped Holmes create her elaborate scam. In many ways, the conviction is an indictment of those in business and the media who helped create the massive fraud that was Elizabeth Holmes.

Holmes was convicted of defrauding investors with false claims that the start-up Theranos company would revolutionize blood testing using a few drops of blood in a so-called “nanotainer.”

The three counts of wire fraud come with a 20-year maximum penalty while a conspiracy count has a maximum five-year penalty. Often courts will have the counts run concurrently, so she would be looking at a horizon of 20 years with an expectation of much less as a first offender. However, that is not a given. Holmes was convicted of Bernie Madoff sized fraud with hundreds of millions lost to investors. Just under these counts, there was $144 million in losses. She also has denied all of the allegations, including on the stand. That might prompt the Court to consider a more severe framing of the sentencing in the case.

Holmes can expect a long prison stint, but she was able to engage in this fraud to build a counterfeit $9 billion company with the help of equally dishonest business and media cultures.

Silicon Kabuki

The prosecution put a spotlight on the fraudulent practices rampant in Silicon Valley where executives often invoke the rule that, to be successful, you have to “fake it till you make it.” The idea is that you can get away with fraudulent pitches as long as you use the money to make good on the pitch in the end. Under this logic, big frauds are better than small frauds.  If you get billions investments, it is hard not to make something worth selling. Moreover, flaming out on a product is treated as a cost of doing business. Few executives are forced to account for their early pitches when their products flop.

Yet, few flame out like Holmes because she never really had a workable concept, let alone a product.  The case showed how she and her underlings sent out blood to be tested by more conventional means and did not have a working model. What she had was buzz, not a business.

Holmes was the perfect image of Silicon Valley shtick in her Steve Jobs black turtlenecks and child-genius act. This was performance art that followed the kabuki of the Valley for the techno super-wealthy class.

While everyone is focused on Holmes at the trial, they forget that she assembled a who’s who of powerful business and political board members who lent credibility to the scam. That included former U.S. Secretaries of State George Shultz and Henry Kissinger, former Secretaries of Defense William Perry and James Mattis as well as an assortment of business and political elite. They furthered the mythology and Holmes was Jobs2.0. William Perry told The New Yorker in 2014 that Ms. Holmes “has sometimes been called another Steve Jobs, but I think that’s an inadequate comparison. She has a social consciousness that Steve never had. He was a genius; she’s one with a big heart.”

The Media Myth

Holmes would have been a modest fraudulent enterprise without the help of the media. The image of a young woman leading a multi-billion dollar corporation was “a fact to good to check.” Holmes was showered with attention from being featured by Bill Clinton to breathless features on virtually every network and newspaper.  With dozens of journalists doing puff pieces, virtually none actually looked into her product or the underlying technological claims.

Holmes knew her audience. She was celebrated as the “new generation” of women in business, the brilliant female successor to Jobs.  To even question that narrative was to risk being accused of sexism. After all, would you have questioned Steve Jobs when he was developing Apple?

The answer is yes. Jobs faced huge skepticism over his company’s viability. Yet, Holmes was a fait accompli, she was proof in itself. After all, she was a beautiful 19-year-old Stanford dropout who dressed like Jobs and spoke in soundbites.

Soon Holmes was on the cover of Fortune, which proclaimed “This CEO’s out for blood.” Glowing cover features would follow with Forbes and Inc. Television hosts cooed and columnists clamored over the carefully constructed image of a “female Steve Jobs.”

The Holmes story is all too familiar in the age of advocacy journalism. Coverage is now often about advancing a narrative and achieving social progress. Reporting has been supplanted by promoting images and messages. As Stanford journalism professor Ted Glasser explained “journalists need to be overt and candid advocates for social justice, and it’s hard to do that under the constraints of objectivity.” Celebrity journalism has many of the same flaws where images transcend the facts. In this case, Holmes was both a cause and a celebrity.

Holmes knew the media would shed the constraints of objectivity in favor of her irresistible story. She was the hero that the times called for, including Time magazine itself. Time gushed that Holmes was “striking, somewhat ethereal, iron-willed, she is on the verge of achieving her vision.” That fact that that vision turned out to be fraud in just another inconvenient fact. F. Scott Fitzgerald once said, “show me a hero and I’ll write you a tragedy.” Neither Holmes nor her scam were self-made. It took a collective effort and this verdict should have come with a list of unindicted co-conspirators

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/04/2022 – 13:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3sRDr5M Tyler Durden

“Your Kids Are Safer In School” – NYC Reopens Schools As Thousands Of Districts Remain Closed During Omicron Surge

“Your Kids Are Safer In School” – NYC Reopens Schools As Thousands Of Districts Remain Closed During Omicron Surge

Eric Adams, a former cop and Brooklyn borough president who, as of Jan. 1, took over as the mayor of NYC, has pledged – alongside his predecessor, Bill de Blasio – to keep students safe and schools open.

Former NYC schools chancellor Meisha Porter and incoming Schools Chancellor David Banks pledged last week that Adams’ team would pursue a multi-pronged approach for safely returning to school in-person this January following winter break. While the city’s Department of Education has encouraged all faculty and students to get vaccinated, they stopped short of making it a requirement (presumably for fear that it would prevent faculty from returning to work).

What’s more, the city is adding city-run testing sites this week, while the DOE will double the in-school surveillance testing programs and deploy millions of at-home rapid tests to allow students to continue learning in school.

In a statement released late last week, de Blasio, Adams and Porter all shared statements about the city’s plans for keeping schools open, come hell or high water.

  • “Schools are among the safest places to be throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and we’re working closely with the incoming administration to keep it that way,” said Mayor Bill de Blasio. “By doubling COVID-19 testing in schools, getting our students vaccinated, and sending students, teachers and staff home with at-home test kits, we can keep everyone healthy and finish out this school year strong.”

  • “The numbers speak for themselves – your kids are safer in school,” said Mayor-Elect Eric Adams. “Thanks to testing, vaccinations, and at-home testing kits we’ll keep it that way. We’re working closely with the de Blasio Administration and we’ll be ready to bring students and staff back to the classroom on January 3rd.  This is how we move our city forward.”

  • “The safety of our students, staff members, and communities is our top priority,” said Schools Chancellor Meisha Porter. “Thanks to our multi-layered, gold standard approach to health and safety, New York City’s schools continue to be some of the safest places to be during this pandemic. These new measures in school testing build on our high standards for safety, protects our communities, and allows for students to continue receiving an excellent education in-person.”

Meanwhile, Adams told Bloomberg TV on Monday that public sector employees are required to be fully vaccinated. A vaccine mandate for private sector workers went into place on Dec. 27, with employees required to get their second dose within 45 days or they won’t be allowed to enter their workplaces,

Just as Wall Street banks and insurance companies delay their employees’ return to the office, Adams said he was urging banks and other businesses who are letting employees work from home during the winter COVID surge to instead bring those workers back to the office.

“That accountant from a bank that sits in an office, it’s not only him, it’s our financial ecosystem. He goes out to the restaurant. He brings the business travel, which is 70% of our hotel occupancy. He participates in the economy,” Adams said.

NYC’s positivity rate has climbed to a staggering 33% as one in every three COVID tests administered in the city has come back positive, according to data from Reuters. That’s substantially higher than the 18% rate nationwide.

Outside of the city, thousands of schools across the US ended up delaying the scheduled return to classroom.

This week’s scheduled return to classrooms following the holiday break or switched to remote learning as the omicron variant of the coronavirus pushed COVID cases to record levels. Nationally, there were more than 2,750 school closures this week.

The speed of omicron’s spread has created what Reuters described as “a broadening sense of chaos in the first few days of 2022.” The number of new COVID cases has doubled during the past week to a record-setting average of 418,000 a day.

Cities including Milwaukee, Cleveland and Detroit either implemented online instruction or canceled school altogether this week for tens of thousands of students, citing both staff shortages and the threat of omicron.

Across New Jersey, which has seen some of the highest case rates in recent weeks, most urban school districts have returned to virtual learning to start the year, including the Garden’s State’s biggest district, Newark.

Down in Atlanta, Anna Beale Smith, a mother of two, told Reuters that while she supports the decision to switch the city’s public schools to remote learning this week, she wishes the district made the announcement earlier. The Saturday night announcement left too many parents like herself scrambling, she said.

“I’ve been really disappointed and frustrated in the lack of communication and the lack of clear planning,” said Smith, 41, who works in healthcare.

During the past week, the number of hospitalized COVID patients rose 40%, up to 72% of the previous peak seen in January 2021, according to Reuters. COVID deaths in the US have held fairly steady at 1,300 lives lost on average each day. Still, the sheer number of new cases has alarmed health officials with hospital systems in many states already strained. Maryland, Ohio, Delaware and Washington DC are all at, or near, record number of beds filled with COVID patients. Staffing shortages and a snowstorm moving through the eastern US created further travel woes, with more than 4.4K flights canceled on Monday worldwide, including nearly 3K flights in the US, according to the tracking website FlightAware.

Finally, the schools that are pressing ahead with reopening have apparently gotten their hands on thousands of take-home rapid tests. For example, Boston distributed 55K tests to students ahead of the winter break. Schools are still scheduled to open on Tuesday, though the superintendent of schools, Brenda Cassellius, told reporters on Monday that she anticipates omicron-related staff shortages. “If I have to go out and teach in a classroom, I’m going to do that,” the superintendent said. .

Across the pond, the situation is more dire for educators, as lockdowns in European countries leave students stuck at home. However, in the Netherlands, officials have ordered students to return to school. After two weeks of living under strict lockdown conditions, the Netherlands will reopen primary and secondary schools on Jan. 10 despite coronavirus infections remaining high, the government said on Monday.

The government added that hospital admissions had fallen substantially since the lockdown’s start. Meanwhile, in England, authorities have said they will now require students to wear face coverings.

“We want to maximize the number of children in school and college for the maximum amount of time,” said Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi during an interview with the Sunday Telegraph. “One of the additional, temporary measures that will help achieve this in light of the omicron surge is recommending face coverings are worn in secondary school classrooms and teaching spaces for the coming weeks – although not for longer than they are needed.”

Prior to this change, England was the only one of the UK’s four constituent nations that hadn’t required students to wear masks in class.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/04/2022 – 12:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3FXgPEv Tyler Durden

Schiff: 2021 Was A Year Of “Peak Speculation”

Schiff: 2021 Was A Year Of “Peak Speculation”

Via SchiffGold.com,

As 2021 goes into the history books, Peter Schiff looks back over what he calls “a year of peak speculation.”

Of course, the big story of the year was inflation.

A lot of the things Peter has been predicting came to pass in 2021. But it was a frustrating year for like-minded investors because the markets didn’t respond as you would expect them to. Even with the highest inflation in 40 years, gold was rangebound most of 2021 in anticipation of monetary tightening. Peter said given what happened, you would have expected a down year for the dollar and an up-year for gold. Instead, we got the reverse. The dollar gained ground.

Now, of course, the dollar didn’t gain purchasing power. The dollar lost a lot of purchasing power. That’s obvious. But on a relative basis against other fiat currencies, the dollar appreciated. The price of gold also dropped. I mean, it wasn’t a collapse, but still gold was down about 5% on the year.”

Peter said even with the dip last year, $1,800 is a good base from which to build a rather spectacular rally.

Of course, the real story of 2021 was inflation. It’s not just a story covered by the business networks. Everybody is talking about rising prices today. But if you turn the clock back to 2020, nobody was worried about inflation.

I mean, nobody other than me and maybe a few other people — lone voices crying in the wilderness. But the vast majority of people, including the central bankers, were actually worried that we didn’t have enough inflation. They were worried about a lack of inflation and they were doing everything they could to create more inflation, especially in the aftermath of COVID.”

The central bank stepped on the gas and flooded the world with cash so people would keep spending. Meanwhile, the pundits only focused on the demand side. The mainstream ignored the obvious consequences of the economy basically shutting down.

If people aren’t going to work, they’re not producing stuff. And if people aren’t producing stuff, well, now there’s a shortage of stuff.”

But there was no corresponding drop in demand. Everybody had their pockets stuffed full of stimulus money.

In aggregate, consumers were spending a lot more during the pandemic than they spent before the pandemic. So, what happened is we had an increase in demand. At the same time, we had a decrease in supply. Now, you don’t have to be a PhD in economics to understand what that’s going to do to prices. … All you need is a brain and some common sense to realize that if demand goes up and supply goes down, price is going to go way up. And that is exactly what happened in 2021.”

With supply dropping, we needed to demand to go down — even if it resulted in a recession. Instead, the government made things worse.

Instead of people reducing their consumption along with their production, they wanted to consume more. They were spending more because of the asinine monetary and fiscal stimulus that took place during the pandemic.”

At first, the Fed said there wasn’t any inflation to worry about. Then when it reared its head, it insisted that inflation was “transitory.” Finally, the Fed pivoted again and conceded that inflation isn’t transitory. But the central bank still claims to be confident it can solve the problem by speeding up its taper and interest rate hikes a little bit. Of course, it won’t. In order to fight inflation, the Fed needs to drive real interest rates above the rate of inflation. It can’t do that without collapsing the economy which is predicated on easy money and borrowing.

Peter said it’s extremely frustrating that he was right about inflation and that it is a much bigger problem than the government admits, we haven’t seen the results you would have expected in the dollar and in gold.

The reason that we haven’t seen this is because the markets still believe the Fed and they are discounting into the exchange rate of the dollar and the price of gold this tight monetary policy that they expect. But we’re not going to get tight money. Even if we get money that’s less loose, it’s still not tight. And in fact, even if it’s less loose for a while, it’s ultimately going to be even looser in the future than it is right now. Any progress that the Fed makes in reducing the amount of accommodation that it is supplying will be unwound as soon as we see adverse reactions in either the market or the economy. Eventually, it’s got to happen. It always does.”

So, at some point, either after the Fed reverses or before because the markets accurately anticipate it, Peter thinks we’ll get the reaction that he’s been expecting all along.

In this podcast, Peter also talks about how the Fed is re-rigging the CPI year again to hide increasing inflation, the ever-growing trade deficits, surging commodity prices, and Bitcoin.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/04/2022 – 12:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/34lGvwO Tyler Durden

World’s Largest Coal Exporter Warns Of Energy Crunch, Imposes Export Ban 

World’s Largest Coal Exporter Warns Of Energy Crunch, Imposes Export Ban 

Chinese coal futures rose on Tuesday on Indonesia’s export ban over the weekend. Indonesia is the largest exporter of dirty fossil fuel, stoking fears of supply woes as the Northern Hemisphere winter is underway. 

Bloomberg Intelligence notes ever since China suspended coal imports from Australia in 2020, Indonesia has become an important source, making up 70% of China’s total thermal coal imports.

Indonesia’s export ban sent the most active coal contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange soaring as much as 6% on Tuesday. 

On Monday, Indonesia’s state utility provider warned the country was facing a “critical period” of supply woes. The export ban will enable power plants to restock domestic coal supplies to avoid rolling blackouts. 

“The move could potentially have knock-on effects in China and India, which are the usual destinations for Indonesian coal,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING.

China has increased domestic production in recent months ahead of winter. Chinese coal miners should benefit from Indonesia’s disruption as prices and sales increase. 

Indonesia’s export ban will only last through January but could slash global seaborne supply by 45%. Indonesia is the largest exporter of coal in the world. 

Coal prices in other regions have received a boost. Taking a look at the US, Peabody Energy Corporation, the largest private-sector coal company globally, shares jumped 12% on Monday.

Even though dozens of countries have joined international alliances to phase out coal, the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel is going nowhere for the time being as an energy crisis continues to ripple through the world. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/04/2022 – 12:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3JAnPcR Tyler Durden