Iran Demands Trump Be Put On Trial For Soleimani Killing: “Muslims Will Take Revenge”

Iran Demands Trump Be Put On Trial For Soleimani Killing: “Muslims Will Take Revenge”

Iran is marking the second anniversary of the death of its popular commander of the IRGC Quds Force Gen. Qasem Soleimani, killed by US drone strike under the Trump administration while leaving Baghdad airport on Jan.3, 2020.

Large rallies were held in Tehran and across major cities marking the occasion, which included a theme of “we are all Soleimani” and anti-American slogans and signs. Further Iranian leaders, as well as Soleimani’s daughter, Zeinab Soleimani, who has been outspoken since his death – have vowed they will see “vengeance” done against Washington. She said in a Monday speech: “We vow to move closer, hand in hand and step by step, to the horizon of exacting ‘harsh revenge’ on enemies whose hands are stained with their blood,” according to state media.

But the comments from the day which grabbed international headlines, as they were by design meant to get Washington’s attention given the brazenness and outlandish nature of the “threat”, were issued by Iran’s hardline President Ebrahim Raisi. He vowed that Muslims would “take revenge” against the US if Trump and Pompeo aren’t arrested and brought to trial

Source: Salon/AP

“If Trump and (former secretary of state Mike) Pompeo are not tried in a fair court for the criminal act of assassinating General Soleimani, Muslims will take our martyr’s revenge,” Raisi said in a televised speech Monday, according to Reuters.

Of course, no US leader in history has ever been put on trial for any alleged “war crimes” abroad, and Raisi without doubt knows this. But it comes after the Islamic Republic submitted a formal letter to the United Nations demanding that it hold both the US and Israel accountable for the 2020 killing.

Iran and its allies in Iraq have argued that given Soleimani was on a diplomatic mission at the time of his death, the drone killing ordered by then President Trump was essentially an assassination of an active ambassador and top government official. According to Al Jazeera

In a letter to the UN General Assembly published late on Saturday, the legal department of Iran’s presidential office called for “all legal initiatives in its power, including issuing a resolution”” to condemn the US government and discourage similar moves in the future.

The letter said US governments have, for years, displayed an “excessive unilateralism” in their actions that has granted them the power to violate international laws and agreements.

Interestingly and strangely, some Iranian officials took a jab at Trump over the Jan.6 Capitol events…

In the days after the Jan.3rd killing, which shocked many regional leaders given the brazenness and unpredictable nature of the attack, Iran hit back by sending cruise missiles on some American bases in Iraq, specifically at at Al Asad and one in Irbil. Though no casualties were initially confirmed there began to slowly emerge reports of at least dozens of head injuries and concussions suffered by US personnel, described as “Traumatic Brain Injury” – but which the Pentagon tried to downplay.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/03/2022 – 19:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3pOhMJN Tyler Durden

The Truths We Dared Not Speak In 2021

The Truths We Dared Not Speak In 2021

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via AmGreatness.com,

As the long year of 2021 finally came to a close, there were a number of truths Americans on the Left found themselves privately acknowledging but unable to say in public for fear of doing damage to their political cause, their own reputations, or their sense of security.

But as 2022 advances, it will become even more difficult to hide these truths. 

Collusion, RIP

No one wishes to speak of the “dossier” anymore. Everyone knows why: it was never a dossier. It was always a mishmash concoction of half-baked fantasies and outright lies, sloppily thrown together by the grifter and has-been ex-British spy and Trump hater, Christopher Steele—all in the pay of Hillary Clinton, the original architect of the collusion hoax. 

Steele himself admitted that he had no sources or notes to substantiate his “research.” Most of those who had seeded the dossier around Washington now either agree it was fake, or “partially” false, or remain silent in embarrassment. 

The perpetual NeverTrump revisionism is reduced to “The Russian Hoax Hoax,” in pathetic fashion suggesting Putin still colluded with Trump and such “collusion” is provable even without the dossier. 

The logic is Orwellian: in 2017-2020 we heard, “But the dossier shows that ….” In 2020-2021 we heard, “Whoever said the dossier had anything to do with Russian collusion?” 

The FBI—that in part used their paid informant Steele’s lies to birth FISA warrants—now disowns it. The entire 22-month, $40-million Mueller charade ended up in tragicomic style with Robert Mueller under oath denying he knew much of anything about either the purveyor of the dossier, Fusion GPS, or the dossier itself. 

James Comey when asked about it and the investigations it spawned, on 245 occasions under oath claimed he lost his memory or had no knowledge of it. 

The Russian collusion hoax will go down in history as one of the most shameful examples of Washington, D.C. mass hysteria, and of a concentrated effort to destroy an elected president, in modern American political history. 

In the end, we always come back to where we started: Hillary Clinton. 

She used the three firewalls of the Democratic National Committee, the Perkins Coie legal firm, and Fusion GPS, to pay Steele, a foreign national, likely barred by law from providing such dirt to a U.S. presidential campaign. 

Steele then grabbed Clinton and FBI money, and in lazy fashion made a few calls to the now indicted Igor Danchenko, a Russian working in Washington, D.C. at the left-wing Brookings Institution, along with a Clinton crony Charles Dolan doing business in Moscow. Presto, Steele typed up their myths, in scary intelligence white-paper fashion, and passed them off as top-secret “Russian sources.” The dossier became the “proof” needed to show that Trump, in the words of former CIA director John Brennan, was “treasonous” or, as former Director of National Intelligence General (ret.) James Clapper alleged, was a “Russian asset.” 

The Russian collusion hoax is now akin to Joe Biden’s cognitive decline; everyone knows it, but few bother to state the obvious—or rehash their now embarrassing earlier denials.

When the Musical Chairs Music Stops 

Everyone knows the government cannot keep running up astronomical annual deficits. It is piling up a near $30 trillion national debt, printing trillions of dollars—and hoping to keep inflation down to 7 percent per year. Everyone knows that, and no one wishes to talk, much less do anything, about it. 

Instead, we simply will go on redistributing money, inflating the economy, and hoping that the middle classes are naïve enough to believe that their inflated paychecks outpace their greater inflationary costs that, in truth, have more than wiped out all their wage gains. 

When the interest rate hikes invariably come—the longer we wait, the worse will be the reckoning—we will again know the stagflation of the 1970s and 1980s. 

The only calculus the Democrats weigh is whether they can print their way to a semblance of normality through 2022, in hopes the helium-over-inflated economy blows up only after the elections. 

Who knows, maybe then they can blame Joe Biden in 2023 for empowering them to wreck the economy and losing the Congress, as a way of arguing his clear cognitive decline suddenly warrants resignation. 

Spiraling Crimes without Criminals 

Almost every statistic related to violent crime is up. Smash-and-grab has reached tony places like Union Square in San Francisco, Walnut Creek, and Carmel by the Sea. 

Car-jackings are endemic. Gun sales are booming—among terrified upscale white liberals. 

An entire blame-the victim protocol emerges—drive your oldest car, dress down, hide your jewelry, hire security guards for your person and business—because mysteriously there are no victimizers, or at least none that can be mentioned. 

The once popular, but now discredited BLM has been reduced to a caricature, arguing that such violent crimes are constructs created by white people to jail black people, that Jussie Smollett was innocent and a victim of racism, and that the Waukesha massacre was the apparent start of a needed “revolution.” 

Everyone knows that defunding the police failed and dangerously so. The public accepts that the Soros DAs are both incompetent and sinister. People of all classes and races look at crime statistics. They watch internet videos. They compare firsthand experience with robbery, assault, and theft. And they surmise that young black males are disproportionately—in terms of their percentages in the population—responsible for much of the violent crime wave, from murders to car-jackings to smash-and-grab mass thefts.

The more the media fails to print descriptions of suspects in criminal assaults, the more universities cavalierly violate the federal Clery Act by failing to provide their campus communities needed information about criminal suspects’ descriptions, and the more big-city mayors and district attorneys deny an epidemic of violent assault, the more the public knows that crime is even worse than what they hear, see, feel, and experience first-hand.

The public also assumes that voicing the truth is deemed “racist” and thus will earn them a doxing or canceling—and so in Soviet-style keep quiet. We do not dare speak of disproportionate black perpetrators of hate crimes, rare interracial crimes, and the killing of police.

Yet such silence does not hide the truth that cannot be quite smothered . In a recent op-ed, Heather Mac Donald estimated that “A police officer is about 400 times as likely to be killed by a black suspect as an unarmed black is to be killed by a police ­officer.” 

So, we have a crime wave without criminals in the manner we had a SUV on autopilot without a driver that killed six and injured 62 in Waukesha. 

Unofficially, the paradox plays out with the upscale blue-city suburbanite still with the BLM sign on his lawn but with a new 12-gauge under the bed, with the BLM hierarchs and their loud enablers living like Patrisse Cullors, Colin Kaepernick, or LeBron James in rich, mostly white areas, with ample walls and security fences and gates. 

So, the year ended with a near record of black-on-black homicides, and a new record of lethal shootings—of police officers on duty. 

Biden, A Robust 95? 

Everyone knows that Biden may be chronologically 78, but mentally and physically he is at best 95 or more. People sense that he is failing at a geometric rate that makes his ability to last even another year “problematic.”

But no one says much because the nation has never removed a president or, other than Richard Nixon, had a president resign. 

The Left knows that they were on record from 2017-2020 with incessant 25th Amendment coup talk and went so low as to wheel out a Yale psychiatrist to claim Trump was crazy and needed an intervention removal. Their constant haranguing forced Trump to take the Montreal Cognitive Assessment—which he aced and which Joe Biden most assuredly will not take, nor will be encouraged to take. 

Apparently, Biden’s handlers believe in the next three years he can imitate the last few months of Woodrow Wilson’s presidency, where the inactive president was kept incommunicado in bed while the wall of his family and close associates deluded the country and lied about Wilson’s true health condition. 

Kamala Harris plays a bad Spiro Agnew. True, she is so incompetent that calls to ask Biden to step down resemble the early voices who asked the same of Nixon but were met with, “So you want Agnew?” 

But unlike Agnew who resigned in disgrace after pleading nolo contendere to a single charge of tax evasion, Kamala Harris is in no legal jeopardy. And so, the idea of a “President Harris” who is not non compos mentis apparently is more frightening to the public than keeping Joe Biden who is non compos mentis. And thus, talk of Biden’s diminishing capacity always is interrupted by “So you want President Harris?” 

In the end, we are left only with such ironies. The Left, which damned John McCain for selecting Sarah Palin as his running mate, is mute about the far less qualified Kamala Harris as an actual vice president. The matters of race and gender preferences that ensured the incompetent Harris her job are now transmogrified into matters of racism that supposedly explain the charges of her critics. 

The Virus is Dead, But the Virus Will Never Die! 

We all know the administration has little clue how to deal with COVID-19. We nod that it does and meanwhile scramble in “everyman for himself” fashion. Who wishes to say or admit that his own government has no idea how to stop the virus, but has a great number of ideas about how to weaponize it for political purposes?

Now there are more dead from COVID-19 in Biden’s tenure than during Trump’s, despite well over 60 percent of the population being fully vaxxed and 2-years’ experience in treating the virus. A 2020-Biden would demand that 2021-Biden be charged with responsibility for well over 400,000 COVID-19 deaths on his watch and thus should resign. 

Everyone knew Biden had no plan, at least not any different from what Trump was doing. His autopilot agenda was simply to claim ownership of the Warp Speed inoculations and assume that by March 2021 COVID was finally burning itself out as it bumped into too many people with prior natural or vaccinated immunity. 

In Biden’s logic, nature and Trump had stopped COVID-19, but he would credit his own inaction and 90-day miracle leadership from Washington. 

Now Biden is a sanctimonious, Oedipus-like figure, the deliverer who cannot stop the plague that in an eerie way exposes his existential flaws. 

So, Delta and then Omicron arrived. Breakthrough cases accompanied both. Suddenly Biden was calling for the states to step up, given “there is no federal solution” to the crisis. He meant that vaccinations do not guarantee immunity from COVID infections anymore. 

Masks and social distancing do not stop Omicron’s spread. There is no federal success in supplying easy testing and an array of therapeutics and medicines to the public. 

Like the proverbial cranky “get off my grass” neighbor, an oblivious and irate Biden still ignores the shortage of tests, the value of therapeutics and natural immunity, and the reality of thousands of breakthrough infections—caught in his senility warp to croak on about “masks” and “vaccinations.”

In 2020, Biden was attacking Trump as if he were acting under “The Articles of Confederation” in outsourcing authority to governors to adopt and manage the crisis as they saw best. In 2021 Biden was praising such Trumpist federalism as he renounced his former much ballyhooed federal authority when blasting Trump as an anti-Federalist who followed the Articles of Confederation. 

In the end, Americans are in 2022 where they were at the beginning of the virus in March 2020: China has successfully hidden the origins of the COVID. 

The WHO cannot be trusted. 

The CDC, NIH, and NIAID are incompetent and politically weaponized. 

The pharmaceutical industries see relief only in more multi-billion-dollar booster rollouts and $700-a-pill remedies.

Dr. “I am the science” Fauci in cyclical fashion is on TV all day. 

He claims on Tuesday that what he said on Monday needed updating, with the intention of saying on Wednesday that his correction on Tuesday was also wrong, while he awaits more bookings for Thursday’s clarifications—all the while damning the ignorant mob who disseminates supposedly false information. 

The Year’s Ironies 

At the end of this second terrible year, we are left only with ironies. 

Vaccinations are a must for soldiers and federal employees, but no barrier to entry for 2 million illegal aliens (is breaking the law a way to avoid the mandate?). 

If you are vaxxed, you are safe; but if your antibody level is even higher from natural immunity, you are not? 

If you get COVID, you are on your own, given the government has no idea what affordable pill you should swallow or what protocol you should follow. 

Social distancing and masks are vital—unless you go out on the street protesting in concert with BLM or are a California official dining at the French Laundry, or a liberal politician getting your hair done.

Those Americans in 2020 who claimed their president was all too real, know now they voted in a president who is all too false. 

Those Americans who thought up every conceivable legal and illegal way of forcing the hated Trump out of office are racking their brains in vain to use those talents to find just one way of easing out their beloved Joe Biden. 

Those Americans, who love the free cash for staying home, fear that the money they got might help to explain why it is now less valuable. 

Those Americans, who claimed moral superiority for their masks and three shots—and still got COVID—cannot decide whether they were lied to by Donald Trump, lied to by Joe Biden—or simply lied to themselves. 

Those Americans who praised defunding the police and excused looting, arson, and violence are pondering whether it is better to renounce their idiocy, or to stay quiet and take one more carjacking, one more assault, or one more break-in—for the cause.

Those Americans who applauded the disreputable efforts of Michael Avenatti, John Brennan, James Clapper, James Comey, Andrew McCabe, Robert Mueller, Adam Schiff, Christopher Steele, and Alexander Vindman to destroy Trump at all costs, got all they wanted—and thereby have all but destroyed the progressive cause, and likely made Donald Trump all the more powerful, the more so they sought to ruin him.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/03/2022 – 19:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3sOQdC2 Tyler Durden

UAE-Flagged Vessel Hijacked In Red Sea By Iran-Aligned Houthis

UAE-Flagged Vessel Hijacked In Red Sea By Iran-Aligned Houthis

On Monday a United Arab Emirates-flagged cargo ship has been highjacked by Iran-aligned Houthis off Yemen’s coast in the Red Sea, according to statements by the Saudi coalition.

The vessel was taken near the western Yemeni port of Hodeidah, accused by the Houthi military which controls much of the country’s north of conducting “hostile actions” as it “entered Yemeni waters without authorization” overnight.

Illustrative image: AFP

A Houthi military spokesman further alleged upon seizure of the ship’s cargo that the UAE-flagged vessel was transporting military equipment, something denied by the Saudi coalition. The ship was initially bound for the Saudi port of Jizan, which lies just north of the Yemeni border. 

However, a Saudi state media announcement dubbed the incident an act of “armed piracy” by the Houthis and said that the ship had only been carry medical equipment after a Saudi field hospital had been dismantled on the island of Socotra. 

The coalition asserted the ship carried medical equipment from a dismantled Saudi field hospital in the distant island of Socotra, which lies 240 miles south of the Arabian peninsula. 

Saudi Brigadier-General Turki al-Malki in the Monday statement said, “The Houthi militia must immediately release the ship, otherwise the coalition forces shall take all necessary measures and procedures to deal with this violation, including the use of force.”

The stretch of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in question remains a critical route for international trade and energy shipments, but has been scene for occasional vessel attacks in recent years connected to the half-decade, ongoing war in Yemen.

The region also of the Arabian Sea has seen the US Navy conduct multiple intercepts of vessels from Iran – in some cases weapons shipments are recovered that were believed destined for the Tehran-backed Houthis.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/03/2022 – 18:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3mU24ei Tyler Durden

What If The Largest Experiment On Human Beings In History Is A Failure?

What If The Largest Experiment On Human Beings In History Is A Failure?

Authored by Dr. Robert Malone via Substack,

A seasoned stock analyst colleague texted me a link today, and when I clicked it open, I could hardly believe what I was reading.  What a headline.  “Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64”. 

This headline is a nuclear truth bomb masquerading as an insurance agent’s dry manila envelope full of actuarial tables.

People frequently write to Jill and myself. People we have never met.  They call, they arrive at the farm by appointment or unannounced, they fill our email in boxes with their inquiries. They all want something; time, attention, an interview.  Many want to tell us about their fear, illness, nightmares, or (what often seems like) outright paranoid conspiracies.  And then, over time, these fears and “conspiracies” keep getting confirmed.  As Jan Jekielek (a senior editor with The Epoch Times) recently said to me, it is getting harder and harder to tell which ones are mere conspiracy theories and which are true reality. 

One farm visitor told me of his foreshadowing massive numbers of deaths within three years consequent to the genetic vaccines, and that this was all about the “Great Reset” and the depopulation agenda of the World Economic Forum (WEF).  I tried to reassure him that, in my opinion, this was highly unlikely- while privately thinking about how easily people fall into this type of conspiracy ideation, and how I need to be careful to avoid going there when confronting so many public health decisions that appear either incompetent or nefarious.  At the time, I only knew of the WEF as the host of a big annual party in Davos Switzerland where the uber rich and the hoi oligoi of the Western nations went to watch Ted talks, drink the best wine, see and be seen.  Silly me.  What a long, strange trip this has been.  I doubt that even Hunter S. Thompson could have imagined it in his most drug and booze addled state.  Suffice to say, I nominate Ralph Steadman as official illustrator of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.  Or a resurrected Hieronymus Bosch.

But I am wandering from a point that I am afraid to clearly state. 

It is starting to look to me like the largest experiment on human beings in recorded history has failed.  And, if this rather dry report from a senior Indiana life insurance executive holds true, then Reiner Fuellmich’s “Crimes against Humanity” push for convening new Nuremberg trials starts to look a lot less quixotic and a lot more prophetic.

Here is what lit me up in this report from The Center Square contributor Margaret Menge.

“The head of Indianapolis-based insurance company OneAmerica said the death rate is up a stunning 40% from pre-pandemic levels among working-age people.

“We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business – not just at OneAmerica,” the company’s CEO Scott Davison said during an online news conference this week. “The data is consistent across every player in that business.”

OneAmerica is a $100 billion insurance company that has had its headquarters in Indianapolis since 1877. The company has approximately 2,400 employees and sells life insurance, including group life insurance to employers in the state.

Davison said the increase in deaths represents “huge, huge numbers,” and that’s it’s not elderly people who are dying, but “primarily working-age people 18 to 64” who are the employees of companies that have group life insurance plans through OneAmerica.

“And what we saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter, is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” he said.

“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.””

So, what is driving this unprecedented surge in all-cause mortality?

Most of the claims for deaths being filed are not classified as COVID-19 deaths,

Davison said.“What the data is showing to us is that the deaths that are being reported as COVID deaths greatly understate the actual death losses among working-age people from the pandemic. It may not all be COVID on their death certificate, but deaths are up just huge, huge numbers.””

Take a moment to read the entire article.  Now.  Then let’s continue on, assuming that you have.

AT A MINIMUM, based on my reading, one has to conclude that if this report holds and is confirmed by others in the dry world of life insurance actuaries, we have both a huge human tragedy and a profound public policy failure of the US Government and US HHS system to serve and protect the citizens that pay for this “service”. 

IF this holds true, then the genetic vaccines so aggressively promoted have failed, and the clear federal campaign to prevent early treatment with lifesaving drugs has contributed to a massive, avoidable loss of life. 

AT WORST, this report implies that the federal workplace vaccine mandates have driven what appear to be a true crime against humanity.  Massive loss of life in (presumably) workers that have been forced to accept a toxic vaccine at higher frequency relative to the general population of Indiana.

FURTHERMORE, we have also been living through the most massive, globally coordinated propaganda and censorship campaign in the history of the human race.  All major mass media and the social media technology companies have coordinated to stifle and suppress any discussion of the risks of the genetic vaccines AND/OR alternative early treatments. 

IF this report holds true, there must be accountability.  We are not just talking about running over the first amendment of the Constitution of the United States and grinding it into the mud with an army of artificial intelligence-powered heavy infantry. This article reads like a dry description of an avoidable mass casualty event caused by a mandated experimental medical procedure. One for which all opportunities for the victims to have become self-informed about the potential risks have been methodically erased from both the internet and public awareness by an international corrupt cabal operating under the flag of the “Trusted News Initiative”. George Orwell must be spinning in his grave.

I hope I am wrong.  I fear I am right.

*  *  *

Subscribe to Who is Robert Malone

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/03/2022 – 18:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3sUEXUP Tyler Durden

Daily Briefing: 2022 Outlook: Bond Market Moves & Your Asset Allocation

Daily Briefing: 2022 Outlook: Bond Market Moves & Your Asset Allocation

Alfonso Peccatiello, the author of the Macro Compass, shares his outlook on 2022 on the first trading day of the year, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite inch higher. Peccatiello discusses how he sees the economy moving forward: his view on China’s economy, the property market, and the Evergrande’s debt crisis. Peccatiello also talks about Fed rates, inflation, the bond market, and some of the good news making headlines and reflected in companies like Apple becoming the first company to hit $3 trillion market value and Tesla stocks jumping 9.0% after the company reported record deliveries for 2021. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JFjVPE

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/03/2022 – 14:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3sTVOH3 Tyler Durden

“Valuations Fully Reset This Spring” – New Year, Same Old Bearish Michael Wilson

“Valuations Fully Reset This Spring” – New Year, Same Old Bearish Michael Wilson

The year may be new, but when it comes to Wall Street’s biggest bear, Morgan Stanley US equity strategist Michael Wilson, nothing has changed.

Despite having wildly missed the S&P’s 2021 year-end price which for all intents and purposes was 4,800 – well above Wilson’s bearish expectation (which was 3,900 when the year started, and 4,000 after a modest mid-August upward revision), in his first note of the new year, the Morgan Stanley strategist writes that the average stock had a much more difficult time as investors started to contemplate the removal of monetary accommodation and decelerating growth.

The “good news”, for Wilson’s clients – according to the strategist – is that while he missed badly on his S&P targets, he “traded most of the key rotations well.” This supposedly helped the bank’s Fresh Money Buy List to outperform the S&P 500 by 300bps with much of the outperformance coming in the first half of the year by capturing the high beta cyclical move in 1Q2021 before pivoting to a large
cap quality preference. This recommendation change, Wilson writes, “was made under the assumption we were entering the typical mid cycle transition. This worked well with large cap quality having a very strong run relative to small caps>”

Realizing that it’s prudent to avoid any discussion of his S&P price target, Wilson instead finds some refuge in discussing secondary pair trades he recommended during the year, and notes that after a short reversal in the above Quality Stocks vs Russell 2000 pair trade during the fall, he reiterated his preference for large cap quality over small caps in his year ahead outlook in mid November.

“This was before Omicron hit the scene and was based on the view that the traditional mid cycle slowdown had further to run, especially in the US where fiscal and monetary stimulus were both about to fade” , Wilson writes. This is also why he MS strategist also had a large cap defensive quality preference since his outlook was published. Fast forward to today and that seems to be what’s happening.

In today’s note, Wilson further addresses why this defensive pivot should continue to work with a few nuances.

As noted above, one mitigating factor to Wilson’s failure to predict the broader market’s meltup is that much of the move was on the back of a handful of stocks as discussed recently when we noted that “51% Of All Market Gains Since April Are From Just 5 Stocks.

Indeed, despite the very strong year for the large cap indices, most individual stocks have gone nowhere since March with many in a bear market. As Wilson explains, in many ways, 2021 looked a lot like 2018, a year of rolling corrections and rotations as investors continually sought out higher ground, i.e., the ‘quality’ trade. In fact, the breadth in 2021 was even narrower than 2018 through early December, and as we enter 2022, “the key question for investors is to decide if they want to stay with the relative winners, or is it time to start bottom fishing the losers.” According to Wilson, new calendar years tend to support the latter strategy as the pressure of keeping up with the index eases.

And so while the MS strategist continues to favor the large cap defensive tilt that has been working, he recommends creating a barbell with stocks that have already been hammered but offer good prospects at a reasonable valuation. Over the past 9 months, the quality bias has driven more and more money into a handful of large cap growth stocks. This can be seen in the lower panel of the chart below as a period of massive outperformance of large cap growth over small cap growth, further highlighting the importance of favoring large over small since March.

Curiously, as seen above, this rally essentially clawed back all the underperformance during the original reopening trade after the vaccines were announced in mid November 2020. However, small cap value versus small cap growth looks very different than its large cap brethren. Despite the quality bias since March 2021, small cap value has outperformed small cap growth by 25 percentage points—the mirror image of large.

That, to Wilson, “is some serious alpha” and he thinks it’s related to his other key view – valuation once again matter.

Bottom line, when looking for the other side of the large cap defensive barbell, focus more on small/mid cap value rather than small/mid cap growth, particularly with the Fed and other central banks tightening policy.

In short, large cap growth is expensive, but it’s much more reasonable relative to smaller cap growth stocks and this relative outperformance suggests the market is much more focused on valuation than what one might realize from simply looking at the headline index P/E. Said otherwise, Wilson does not think the de-rating process is complete and he looks for a full “valuation reset” this Spring.

There is much more in the full Morgan Stanley note which is available to all professional subs in the usual place.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/03/2022 – 18:01

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/32DLtEN Tyler Durden

What We Got Right and Wrong About 2021 (and What We Predict for 2022)


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The Reason Roundtable is back! After a week off from being affected by the pandemic one way or another, Matt Welch, Katherine Mangu-Ward, Peter Suderman, and Nick Gillespie discuss the new COVID-19 variant and their predictions for 2022.

Discussed in the show:

1:44: The new COVID-19 variant and the latest policy changes.

19:50: Weekly Listener Question: Help me understand something. Anthony Fauci is in charge of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. As such he has almost no statutory authority. He can’t make anybody do anything. In his role as White House adviser his job is to dispense advice. That’s it. He has the moral authority of someone who led his agency through the AIDS crisis and the intellectual authority of someone who has done actual science in service of human health, but he can’t give an order that anyone has to obey. So why has Reason (maybe not all of its writers, but I’m lookin’ at you Mr. Soave) jumped on the bandwagon to cast him as a comic book supervillain? There are people and agencies of the government that bear direct responsibility for obstructing solutions to this crisis and exploited it for political gain. Good on you for calling them on it. But why has this man become the target of choice for vilification, when really all he can do is make suggestions?

31:05: 2022 predictions!

57:34: Media recommendations for the week. (And click here for all of the Roundtable‘s media recommendations, ever.)

This week’s links:

Send your questions to roundtable@reason.com. Be sure to include your social media handle and the correct pronunciation of your name.

Today’s sponsors:

  • We all want to make sure our family is protected in a medical emergency. What many of us don’t realize is that health insurance won’t always cover the full amount of an emergency medical flight. Even with comprehensive coverage, you could get hit with high deductibles and co-pays. That’s why an AirMedCare Network membership is so important. As a member, if an emergency arises, you won’t see a bill for air medical transport when flown by an AMCN provider. Best of all, a membership covers your entire household for as little as $85 a year. Now, as a listener of our show, you’ll get up to a $50 Visa or Amazon gift card with a new membership. Simply visit AirMedCareNetwork.com/reason and use offer code REASON.
  • If you feel something interfering with your happiness or holding you back from your goals, BetterHelp is an accessible and affordable source for professional counseling. BetterHelp assesses your needs and matches you with a licensed therapist you can start talking to in under 24 hours, all online.

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Assistant production by Regan Taylor
Music: “Angeline,” by The Brothers Steve

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Texas Relies More On Wind Than Coal For Its Energy… But Is It Ready For Another Winter Storm?

Texas Relies More On Wind Than Coal For Its Energy… But Is It Ready For Another Winter Storm?

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times,

Texas power regulators announced significant changes in December focused on shoring up problems with its electricity grid that narrowly escaped a catastrophic total blackout when Winter Storm Uri hit in February.

With natural gas generating most of the state’s electricity, much of the talk has focused on how to make sure natural gas providers and generators are prepared against freezing and supply issues should another storm like Uri sweep through Texas.

But little has been said about what wind power – the second-largest producer of energy for Texas’ independent grid – will do to winterize to keep the grid stable in an emergency, even as some wonder why Texas, rich in fossil fuels, is relying so heavily on wind in the first place.

Wind turbines are viewed at a wind farm in Colorado City, Texas, on Jan. 21, 2016. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

The Texas grid, unique in its independence from the rest of the country, is managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which is governed by the Public Utility Commission of Texas.

The grid is powered mainly by natural gas, which generated 46 percent of the electricity in 2020. But the grid’s share of renewable power has been increasing over the past decade, with wind providing 23 percent, surpassing coal which supplies 18 percent. Another 11 percent is supplied by nuclear, and the remainder comes from other sources.

All sectors of the grid struggled to supply electricity during the storm that contributed to more than 200 deaths and cost the state billions in financial losses.

In an email response to The Epoch Times, Mike Hoke, a public utility spokesman, said wind power producers were not exempt from winterization rules mandated by state regulators in wake of Uri.

Wind farms had to implement weather emergency preparation measures intended to ensure the sustained operation of all cold weather critical components during winter weather conditions and provide training, according to an email from ERCOT Corporate Communications.

Additionally, wind power CEOs or Texas leaders were required to submit attestations to ERCOT by Dec. 1 regarding their winterization efforts in the same way that leaders of conventional resources such as natural gas did, according to ERCOT.

Jennifer Garber, a spokeswoman for Duke Energy, which runs the Sweetwater Wind Farm in Nolan County, Texas, said in an email that their wind turbines performed within expectations during Uri.

“Since February, we have reviewed our operational winterization procedures and our Texas renewable resources met the requirements as outlined by the Texas PUC,” she wrote.

Criticism has been leveled at wind power’s performance during the deep freeze due to ice accumulation on turbine blades and frozen gear-boxes hindering or stopping production—something that doesn’t happen in wind farms in northern states and countries such as Canada.

Josh Rhodes, an energy expert with the Webber Energy Group at the University of Texas, Austin, said during an interview with The Epoch Times that retrofitting Texas wind farms to deal with freezing could be costly.

People seeking shelter from sup-freezing temperatures gather at a make-shift warming shelter at Travis Park Methodist Church in San Antonio, Texas, on Feb. 16, 2021. (Eric Gay/AP Photo)

“It is pretty expensive to retrofit,” he said, adding there are probably 10,000 to 15,000 wind turbines in Texas.

Wind turbines can be outfitted with cooling or heating equipment that can be placed in the gear-boxes on turbines, Rhodes said, but added that some turbines may not be designed to accommodate both systems.

That would leave a few other options, such as adding heating strips to turbine blades to keep them ice-free just like a defroster in a car windshield, or coating the blades with a Teflon-like substance, he added.

“If they can add that coating after the fact, that would probably be one of the cheapest options,” Rhodes said.

Another method he heard that was actually used in some Texas wind farms was to get the blades spinning and then throw the brake which would sometimes shake the ice off.

But even if wind farms are fully protected against cold weather, there is apprehension that Texas’ growing reliance on wind energy could cause trouble down the road. If enough wind power drops off the grid in just a few minutes, there wouldn’t be enough time for thermal plants to power up to take up the slack.

While on national television, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), for example, emphasized renewable energy’s failure during the storm.

“Our wind and our solar got shut down,” Abbott said during a February appearance on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show.

“It just shows fossil fuel is necessary for the state of Texas as well as other states to make sure we will be able to heat our homes in the wintertime and cool our homes in the summertime.”

Pike Electric service trucks line up after a snowstorm in Fort Worth, Texas, on Feb. 16, 2021. (Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)

Despite the blowback against renewable energy, the Texas legislature actually stripped language from Senate Bill 3 this spring, which addressed the grid crisis, that would have added incentives for natural gas-fired power plants.

For David Blackmon, an independent energy analyst and consultant based in Mansfield, Texas, that omission from the bill was a missed opportunity for the state to stabilize its grid.

“Unfortunately ERCOT has fallen into the trap of relying on wind energy,” Blackmon said, adding that climate change politics has impacted Texas’ grid.

“It’s such a strange thing to me,” he said. “It’s as if no one takes a step back and says: What are we doing here? At what point does Texas become like California?”

Cows stand in a field on the ranch of cattle rancher Bob Helmers, who recently allowed utility company Engie to build several wind turbines on his land near Eldorado, Texas, on April 16, 2021. (Sergio Flores /AFP via Getty Images)

Jason Modglin, president of Texas Alliance of Energy Producers, echoed those concerns, saying that it was natural gas that took on the lion’s share of the load when wind power dropped off during Uri.

“Natural gas ramped up 400 percent in February, but we needed it to ramp up 500 percent,” said Modglin.

Modglin added that only a few peaker gas plants—those that are used in emergencies—have been built in the last decade and coal-burning plants are being phased out in Texas.

“The money has been chasing wind and solar,” Modglin said.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/03/2022 – 17:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/32LLkz0 Tyler Durden

What We Got Right and Wrong About 2021 (and What We Predict for 2022)


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The Reason Roundtable is back! After a week off from being affected by the pandemic one way or another, Matt Welch, Katherine Mangu-Ward, Peter Suderman, and Nick Gillespie discuss the new COVID-19 variant and their predictions for 2022.

Discussed in the show:

1:44: The new COVID-19 variant and the latest policy changes.

19:50: Weekly Listener Question: Help me understand something. Anthony Fauci is in charge of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. As such he has almost no statutory authority. He can’t make anybody do anything. In his role as White House adviser his job is to dispense advice. That’s it. He has the moral authority of someone who led his agency through the AIDS crisis and the intellectual authority of someone who has done actual science in service of human health, but he can’t give an order that anyone has to obey. So why has Reason (maybe not all of its writers, but I’m lookin’ at you Mr. Soave) jumped on the bandwagon to cast him as a comic book supervillain? There are people and agencies of the government that bear direct responsibility for obstructing solutions to this crisis and exploited it for political gain. Good on you for calling them on it. But why has this man become the target of choice for vilification, when really all he can do is make suggestions?

31:05: 2022 predictions!

57:34: Media recommendations for the week. (And click here for all of the Roundtable‘s media recommendations, ever.)

This week’s links:

Send your questions to roundtable@reason.com. Be sure to include your social media handle and the correct pronunciation of your name.

Today’s sponsors:

  • We all want to make sure our family is protected in a medical emergency. What many of us don’t realize is that health insurance won’t always cover the full amount of an emergency medical flight. Even with comprehensive coverage, you could get hit with high deductibles and co-pays. That’s why an AirMedCare Network membership is so important. As a member, if an emergency arises, you won’t see a bill for air medical transport when flown by an AMCN provider. Best of all, a membership covers your entire household for as little as $85 a year. Now, as a listener of our show, you’ll get up to a $50 Visa or Amazon gift card with a new membership. Simply visit AirMedCareNetwork.com/reason and use offer code REASON.
  • If you feel something interfering with your happiness or holding you back from your goals, BetterHelp is an accessible and affordable source for professional counseling. BetterHelp assesses your needs and matches you with a licensed therapist you can start talking to in under 24 hours, all online.

Audio production by Ian Keyser
Assistant production by Regan Taylor
Music: “Angeline,” by The Brothers Steve

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Biden Gives Ukraine’s President ‘Assurances’ Of What US Will Do To Russia

Biden Gives Ukraine’s President ‘Assurances’ Of What US Will Do To Russia

In a Sunday phone call Joe Biden told Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky that the US and its allies will “respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine.” Crucially, Biden pledged that the US would not go over Ukraine’s head in reaching any final resolutions with Russia during upcoming negotiations and talks over the crisis. Biden vowed to Zelensky that key to US-Ukraine relations would being “nothing about you without you” would be done.

Ukraine has in the past months on numerous occasions expressed fear of such a scenario as the White House engaging Putin but without the direct input of Kiev. Zelensky himself has echoed the concern of being “sidelined” on issues directly pertaining to Ukraine’s security.

But as with prior instances of Biden phone calls and summits with Putin, Zelensky’s call came days after the Thursday one-hour phone dialogue with Putin. Typically Ukraine is consulted after the two superpowers engage, in a pattern that has frustrated Kiev, also at a moment it believes Russia’s military is preparing for an offensive into Donbass by month’s end. 

Biden further pledged to look out for Ukraine’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity” and “He also expressed support for confidence-building measures to de-escalate tensions in Donbas and active diplomacy to advance the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, in support of the Normandy Format,” according to the White House call read-out.

Special talks in Geneva where the Russian, US and NATO sides are expected to engage on Moscow’s submitted “security guarantees” draft document will kick off Jan.9-10. Central to Russia’s position is that it receive legally binding commitments of no further NATO expansion eastward. Further it wants to see prior historic verbal pledges given to Georgia and Ukraine of a “path to NATO membership” ultimately rescinded. 

Zelensky for his part, issued a message on Twitter on Sunday evening, describing the Biden call as affirming “the special nature of our relations.” He added that “Joint actions of Ukraine, United States and partners in keeping peace in Europe, preventing further escalation, reforms, deoligarchization were discussed.”

In terms of specific warnings that Biden delivered to Putin last week, Russia was warned of a “heavy price to pay” if there’s any offensive into Ukraine, which so far has included talk of “heavy economic sanctions” – which likely means Iran-style sanctions involving export controls. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/03/2022 – 17:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3qF2HcG Tyler Durden