Month: January 2022

Since its arrival in late November, the unquestionably mild Omicron strain of Covid-19 has sent daily new infections to record highs, while hospital admissions – and particularly deaths – have remained relatively low compared to the giant new denominator.

But it was only a matter of time before a new variant hit the scene. Like omicron, it appears this new variant originated in an African country  – Cameroon – after being isolated by scientists in southern France.

The first official case is reported to be a traveler from Cameroon, and it’s now spreading in Southern France where at least 12 people have been infected with it, according to research published on medrvix.

To be clear – we know virtually nothing about this new strain aside from the fact that it exists. Nothing on severity, transmissibility, ‘long covid’, etc. We do know it’s highly mutated from the original strain, much like Omicron. It’s also too soon to tell if it will be classified as a ‘variant of concern.’

In the medrvix preprint, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, experts from a French government-backed program said they had identified 46 mutations in the variant.

“SARS-CoV-2 variants have become a major virological, epidemiological and clinical concern, particularly with regard to the risk of escape from vaccine-induced immunity,” the paper’s authors wrote.

The scientists also postulated that the new variant was probably of “Cameroonian” origin. Readers can find the complete report below. The variant has been given the name B.1.640.2, and was first detected by experts at the IHU Mediterranee Infection Foundation in Marseille.

According to the paper, the scientists’ analysis of the variant’s genome revealed 46 mutations and “37 deletions resulting in 30 amino acid substitutions and 12 deletions. Fourteen 43 amino acid substitutions, including N501Y and E484K, and 9 deletions are located in the 44 spike protein.”

Read the full report below:

2021.12.24.21268174v1.full on Scribd

New variants are discovered frequently, but most don’t go on to become “variants of concern”, like omicron, delta and beta. The WHO has assigned each variant of concern with a name from the Greek alphabet (the first was “alpha”, the second “beta”, while letters “Xi” and “Nu” have been skipped because they are “confusing”, per the WHO).

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column in the Hill on upcoming year for the Supreme Court. The Court’s docket is likely to put the institution at ground zero of a heated election year. Major decisions on abortion and gun rights are expected by June 2022. Even with Chief Justice John Roberts denouncing attempts at “inappropriate political influence” on the Court, the threats of Court packing and other measures are likely to become even more shrill as these decisions rollout in the new year.

Here is the column:

The late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg once observed that “it’s hard not to have a big year at the Supreme Court.” However, there are some years that are bigger than others. That’s what 2022 is likely to be.

The court has accepted a series of transformative cases with few available exit ramps. It recently added to that list.

In other words, it is likely to issue historic rulings on abortion, gun rights and an assortment of other issues.

The fact that the Supreme Court is going to hand down such decisions in a major election year is also noteworthy. The court tends to be more conservative in the selection of cases before major elections, but 2022 will put the court at ground zero in one of the most heated elections in history.

For those calling to pack the court to ensure a liberal majority, the already furious commentary is likely to reach near hysteria if the conservative majority rules as expected in some of these cases in the first half of 2022.

Here’s just a partial list of what is coming in the new year:

Abortion

The country is awaiting a decision by June in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. At issue is whether Mississippi can impose a 15-week limit on abortions. That is earlier than previously allowed by the court, but the United States is one of only seven among the world’s 198 countries to allow abortions after 20 weeks. While the court could simply overturn Roe v. Wade and return the area to the states, it is more likely that the court will increase the authority of the states while recognizing constitutional protections for such reproductive rights. That could result in a major reframing of “previability” cases.

After Dobbs was accepted, advocates sought to enjoin a Texas law that banned abortion after just six weeks. The court ruled 5-4 to allow the Texas law to be enforced. The Biden administration and other litigants then forced a reconsideration of that decision. The court — as expected — allowed the appeal to go forward for some of the litigants in the lower court but again refused to enjoin the law. To make matters worse, it declared the Biden administration’s appeal to be “improvidently granted.”

Gun rights

If Dobbs is a frightening thought for abortion advocates, New York State Rifle and Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen is a virtual heart attack for gun control advocates. In the latest badly drafted gun law to go before the court, New York has forced a challenge that could result in a major ruling reinforcing individual rights under the Second Amendment. The case deals with the Sullivan Act of 1911, giving local officials discretion over who can carry concealed guns based on a showing of “proper cause.” Bruen is likely to reinforce rights for concealed carry permits — negating a host of laws across the country.

Agency deference

While not often discussed with the “matinee” cases of the term, one case on the docket could bring sweeping impacts across various areas — from the environment to financial regulations to public health. American Hospital Association (AHA) v. Becerra raises a highly technical question of a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services rule that cut outpatient drug reimbursements to hospitals. The rule is based on an agency interpretation of vague statutory provisions — an interpretation that was defended under the deference afforded to agency decisions. (Notably, the court has accepted a variety of other cases that could curtail agency authority, including West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency, which could also curtail efforts on climate change.)

The case is technically about outpatient care for Medicare Part B recipients; however, for some justices, particularly Samuel Alito and Neil Gorsuch, it is all about Chevron and agency deference. Chevron USA Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council Inc. is a 1984 administrative law case that has come to embody the role of federal agencies in not just enforcing but creating law. The “Chevron Doctrine” has insulated agency decisions for decades from substantive review, giving federal agencies an overwhelming degree of authority in our system of government. For some of us, the dominance of federal agencies has become equivalent to a fourth branch of government. The question is whether a critical mass has formed on the court to substantially curtail that decision. If so, AHA v. Becerra could be a torpedo in the water for the Chevron Doctrine.

New cases

With these and other important cases on the docket, it is hardly necessary to add anything new to such a momentous year. Yet the court is not done — by a long shot.

At the end of 2021, the Supreme Court dove into the raging debate over vaccine mandates. It ordered an expedited argument in three such cases for Jan. 7. The appeal raises the legality of the emergency temporary standard issued by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration requiring a vaccine-or-test mandate for private employers with more than 100 employees. The case, again, raises core issues of agency deference as well as federal authority in this area. Courts have split on what White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain admits was a “workaround” of the limits on the president’s authority.

The court is still mulling the case of Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College, a Title VI case in which Harvard University is accused of rigging its admissions process against Asian American students. It’s the flip side of past racial preference cases in college admission, an area that has remained a morass of fractured or conflicting decisions for the court.

This is just a partial listing of what is coming in the new year.

It is perhaps not surprising that Democratic members of Congress and liberal groups are threatening the justices of “consequences” or even a “revolution” if they do not vote with the left of the court. Such threats, however, may backfire. Not only is Chief Justice John Roberts the most popular public official today, but even liberal justices have chafed at the claim that this is a “conservative” or biased court.

The new year will test the design of our constitutional system in insulating the court from such public pressures, even direct threats to the court or individual justices from politicians.

With some of the most important decisions coming by June 2022, there will be plenty of time to weaponize the opinions for the midterm elections.

Former President and Chief Justice William Howard Taft once observed that “presidents come and go, but the Supreme Court goes on forever.” That may be reassuring to some justices as the Supreme Court enters one of the most existential years of its history.

As expected, the FDA has finally approved Pfizer’s COVID booster for children between the ages of 12 and 15, despite the fact that certain dangerous side effects are far more likely to occur in young patients.

These dangerous side effects include myocarditis and pericarditis, two forms of heart inflammation that have been found in thousands of patients and have even contributed to some suspicious vaccine-linked deaths.

But don’t worry kids: Dr. Peter Marks, the FDA’s vaccines chief, said that in the overwhelming majority, the cases of heart  inflammation that have afflicted younger patients have been “mild”. 

It’s worth noting that Dr. Robert Malone, the inventor of mRNA technology who was recently banned by Twitter (and is now facing a crackdown by Facebook), has said the exact opposite: that these side effects could present a greater risk to young patients than the virus itself especially for younger patients.

Unfortunately for some, those views are being more or less ignored.

Marks said in his statement that the agency made its decision because a booster “may help provide better protection against both the delta and omicron variants” especially as omicron is “slightly more resistant” to the vaccine-induced antibodies that help fend off infection.

The FDA didn’t just approve boosters for younger patients, it also shortened the time in between shots. In a statement released Monday, the FDA said it had amended the emergency use authorization for the Pfizer vaccine to shorten the time between the completion of primary vaccination and the first booster dose to five months, instead of six. The FDA will also allow a third dose for immunocompromised children 5 through 11 years of age, officially allowing the first patients as young as 5 to receive their first booster doses.

The agency said the protective health benefits and the “continued protection against COVID and the associated serious consequences that can occur including hospitalization and death, outweigh the potential risks in individuals 12 through 15 years of age” outweighed any risks from side effects.

All of this was based on “real-world data from Israel, including safety data from more than 6,300 individuals 12 through 15 years of age who received a booster dose of the vaccine at least 5 months following completion of the primary two-dose vaccination series.”

Additionally, the FDA said, “peer-reviewed data from multiple laboratories indicate that a booster dose of the Pfizer vaccine greatly improves an individual’s antibody response to be able to counter the omicron variant. Authorizing booster vaccination to take place at five months rather than six months may therefore provide better protection sooner for individuals against the highly transmissible omicron variant.”

The CDC must now review the FDA’s recommendations and its director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, must sign off – but this is considered largely a formality.

As for the children as young as five who are now eligible to get boosted, these patients include “children 5 through 11 years of age who have undergone solid organ transplantation, or who have been diagnosed with conditions that are considered to have an equivalent level of immunocompromise, may not respond adequately to the two-dose primary vaccination series.”

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney asserted that Donald Trump should never be allowed to run for president again over his alleged failure to stop the January 6th raid on the Capitol.

Cheney, daughter of accused war criminal and former VP Dick Cheney, made the comments during an interview with ABC News on Sunday.

“The Briefing Room at the White House is just a mere few steps from the Oval Office,” said Cheney.

“The president could have at any moment walked those very few steps into the Briefing Room, gone on live television, and told his supporters who were assaulting the Capitol to stop, and he failed to do so.”

Cheney went on to baselessly accuse Trump of provoking the raid, conveniently failing to mention countless examples of footage that shows the rioters being invited to enter the building.

On ABC, Liz Cheney says Jan 6 committee has first-hand testimony that Trump watched assault on the Capitol on TV & resisted pleas from McCarthy & Ivanka asking he call for a stop to the violence.

Cheney adds that she thinks Trump returning to office could be the end of democracy pic.twitter.com/iz8Ibydb3u

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) January 2, 2022

The Congresswoman said Trump was “clearly unfit for future office” and “can never be anywhere near the Oval Office ever again.”

She ended by echoing Hillary Clinton’s alarmist warning that democracy would be dead in America if Americans chose to return Trump to office via a democratic vote.

With the January 6th anniversary coming up on Thursday, Democrats are doing everything they can to milk it as if it was the first anniversary of 9/11 or the attack on Pearl Harbor.

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are set to give comments offering a “solemn observance” for “officers who died protecting the Capitol from rioters,” despite the fact the only people who died on the day were Trump supporters.

One of those supporters, Ashli Babbitt, was brutally shot in the neck at close range by a Capitol Police officer.

Don’t expect Biden or Harris to offer solemn condolences to her family.

*  *  *

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European natural gas prices jumped as much as 25% to 80 euros a megawatt-hour, reversing a nine-day slide after increasing concerns about declining Russian gas supplies to the fuel-starved continent. 

“While Russian pipe supply to northwest Europe has been incredibly low since the start of the new year, should this persist in the coming days, this will undoubtedly provide bullish support once demand begins to pick up again,” Tom Marzec-Manser, an analyst for European gas and LNG at pricing agency ICIS, told Bloomberg. 

Russia’s gas pipeline bookings remain mute to start the week, indicating markets will stay tight, forcing Europe to eat through depleted inventories. Gas flows exiting Ukraine through Velke Kapusany in Slovakia plunged to lows not seen since early last year. 

 Another transit route for gas is Russia’s Yamal-Europe link halted for two weeks. Gazprom PJSC has only been sending fuel to clients under long-term contracts.

European gas prices have been on a wild rollercoaster. A flotilla of US LNG tankers headed toward Europe sent prices tumbling from an all-time high of 180 euros on Dec. 21. The combination of warmer temperatures also helped to pressure prices lower. However, now, the brief period of warm weather appears to be coming to an end later this week. 

Natural gas prices on the fuel-starved continent should remain elevated throughout winter and into spring as supplies are well below adequate levels. Relief is expected once Europe certifies Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but that might not happen until July. 

Via QTR’s Fringe Finance substack,

I’m expecting one of the largest mainstream media pivots in history in 2022, catalyzed by capitalism and common sense…

A couple of things all happened together over the last 48 hours.

First, I came up with the idea of writing 100 predictions for the year 2022 – a blog post that I might still wind up finishing at some point. And second, I listened to the Joe Rogan Experience podcast interview of mRNA inventor Dr. Robert Malone, M.D., hours after the doctor was banned from Twitter for having opinions on Covid that stood at odds with the mainstream narrative.

The opinions that Malone echoed during his Rogan appearance included, but were not limited to:

• Calling the government “out of control” and “lawless” in their Covid response

• Stating mandates of “experimental” vaccines are “explicitly illegal”

• Noting that India had success in treating Covid early with drugs like ivermectin

• Saying “half a million” excess deaths have occurred due to government actions

• Arguing those with natural immunity have higher risk of vaccine adverse events

• Alleging that people are living through a mass formation psychosis

I’m not going to rehash all of the doctor’s points about Covid, but instead will say that I believe he made an extraordinary amount of thoughtful points that the mainstream media and “big tech” are too scared (and/or too stupid) to touch on themselves.

You can watch clips and read a full writeup of Malone’s interview here and read a detailed thread of the interview here.

Among the 100 predictions I was going to make in my blog post was going to be calling for a drastic shift in the mainstream media in the coming year. Instead of 100 predictions, I decided to instead write this piece.

Here’s how it came to be.

*  *  *

When the last hour of the podcast was coming to its conclusion as I was finishing an 8 mile run, a thought dawned on me: this interview with Malone is now officially out there and, no matter how much anyone tries to censor it, it can’t be taken back.

As we all know, nowadays when you make it on JRE, you’ve officially “made it”.

Putting aside the obvious irony of Twitter attempting to ban somebody and the person in question going viral as a result, I also thought about how, despite the fact that Malone’s opinions put him at odds with the mainstream media (who would never dare to have him on), Joe Rogan launched him past the usual media suspects and into the real “mainstream”.

I then thought to myself that in 2022, the mainstream media as we know it today (CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, etc.) is going to be forced to change its narrative on Covid.

“It’ll never happen,” you’re thinking to yourself, right? Let me explain.

*  *  *

The idea of the media being forced to change its tune on Covid is something I touched upon a couple of days ago when I wrote about the Omicron variant and how the media is creating a mass hysteria mountain out of a mole hill.

But after listening to Dr. Robert Malone‘s well reasoned arguments, delivered for three straight hours, concisely and calmly, it became clear to me that the entire mainstream media machine could wind up falling at the hands of content creators like Joe Rogan.

It’s an interesting little piece of game theory, when you think about it.

Rogan generates so many views and has grown so quickly – strictly because he allows open dialogue, civil discourse and approaches things with honest intent – that there is no financial incentive to de-platform him. Ever notice how YouTube apparently had no problem taking down Rogan’s interview with Malone, but hasn’t banned Rogan’s channel from the site yet?

One issue for media and political elites to consider is the fact that Rogan has supporters on both sides of the aisle. These supporters watch him because he routinely touches on topics that are considered faux pas or irreverent. The question of whether or not Rogan’s legacy and impact are here, and are going to remain here, can be answered with a resounding “yes”.

Rogan has thrived, whether intentionally (bringing on people specifically because they are being censored) or unintentionally (shooting the shit with people he finds interesting), from the start, by shining light in the dark areas that the mainstream media refuses to discuss.

In the same way that bitcoin unintentionally became a global phenomenon as a result of the negative consequences of central banking, Joe Rogan has become a global phenomenon at the hands of the negative consequences of how the mainstream media and “big tech” does business.

It reminds of me the scene in the 1989 version of Batman where Batman tells the Joker, “I’m going to kill you”, to which the Joker retorts:

“You IDIOT! You made me. Remember? You dropped me into that vat of chemicals! That wasn’t easy to get over, and don’t think that I didn’t try!”

And so now, as it stands, knob-heads like Brian Stelter and his merry band of buffoons over at CNN – who spent 2021 attacking Rogan – have little choice but to fall in line behind him.

You see, one of the great things about being the leader in an industry (in this case, media), is that you set the pace, you dictate the tone and you become the bar of expectation for integrity, honesty, open-mindedness, truthful dialogue and creating discussion that benefits the greater good, and not just those who you serve.

Joe Rogan has raised the bar, whether people on the left, on the right, in the media or in politics care, or not.  Not only has Rogan taken the lead by several lengths like Smarty Jones breaking loose around the final turn at the Preakness, he has also inspired and created a whole new crop of content creators that are following his model. In other words, it isn’t just Joe Rogan that the mainstream media is up against, it’s the hundreds, if not thousands, of content creators that are either looking to build media empires themselves, or are simply just inspired by open dialogue, like myself.

In the words of Grace Wheelberg:

“He’s very popular, Ed. The sportos, the motorheads, geeks, sluts, bloods, wastoids, dweebies, dickheads – they all adore him. They think he’s a righteous dude.”

 

I think the result of the seismic shift is going to be several-fold, but the most important revelation I’ve come to is that the mainstream media is losing the fight of its life over the Covid narrative.

 

If there’s one thing we can agree one, it’s that Covid is a tie that binds all 7 billion people on Planet Earth right now: everybody knows about it, everybody is concerned about it and everybody, to some degree, wants to stay informed about it. 

In fact, health officials and the media have made it this way.

What they may not have known they were inadvertently doing, however, was opening up communication veins for people with integrity and honesty like Joe Rogan to dose them with a them with a look at reason and honest inquiry. This, in turn, created a benchmark for the world to compare the mainstream media to, revealing them to be the hysterical, sensational maniacs that they’ve become.

The media has already taken a couple of serious L’s during the Trump Administration. When it came to Donald Trump, they manufactured most of the Russiagate story, they pushed the now-debunked Steele dossier, they covered up the Hunter Biden laptop story leading up to the election and routinely mangled Trump’s words to make it look as though he was an open supporter of white supremacy, despite him actually saying just the opposite.

The media got away with it and always had an audience because half the country hated Donald Trump to begin with. But now, on a global scale, everybody is interested in developments pertaining to Covid and whether we know it or not – and no matter how different our opinions are on Covid – we’re all still unified by the same desires: we all want health, we all want security, we all want to love our families, we all want to be productive members of our community and we all want to live a life with purpose and meaning. Covid has unified us more than we know.

These tenets usurp our political biases, whether we know it or not. They also become vessels for earnest discussion about finding objective truths about Covid that will collectively benefit mankind.

And if you think the numbskulls in the mainstream media had the four dimensional chess skills necessary to see this coming, you’ve obviously never watched Don Lemon’s analysis of…well, anything.

And don’t try to tell me change isn’t being affected already.

Have you seen recent reports about CNN essentially changing its entire programming lineup, likely due to a major ratings collapse?

As reported by Zerohedge in November, citing former Mediaite and IJR managing editor (and former breaking news editor at the DC Examiner) Jon Nicosia:

“CNN is going to revert to a 100% news channel, and a ‘good number’ of CNN‘s’ ‘talent/staff’ will be fired as part of a major shakeup.

Have you seen the rise of sites like Substack, which you are reading this article on right now, because of the censorship that the mainstream media’s narrative has forced onto the populace?

Have you seen the customers and the subscribers willing to pay for content because even if you’re not always right, they know that you have a vested interest in finding the truth and trying to speak about it honestly?

I have. When I started this blog in August, 2021, I didn’t expect anybody would sign up. Much like my podcast, my goal was only to speak openly and honestly about the issues that I thought were important and were not being covered extensively enough. Four years after starting my podcast, I have over more than 5 million listens. Six months after the launch of my blog, I have about 10,000 people on my email list – more than I thought I’d have in 10 years of writing.

Is it because I’m some great thought leader? Hell no. It’s because people are desperate for truth and honesty, and its a perfect example of how powerful the new wave of media is that’s on its way.

Again, I don’t want to harp on the details of Robert Malone’s interview. I encourage you to watch it here.

But what I do want to say is that I’m predicting for 2022 that the media is going to make one of the biggest pivots on any topic it has ever made, on Covid.

“Shouldn’t be a problem,” you’ll think to yourself. “After all, the media follows the truth, so what’s so tough about making a pivot on a story?”

Let’s get real. We all know that the media – both sides of the aisle – hates to correct itself, hates to pivot and hates to do anything but double down on narratives that it is being fed regardless of whether or not they are objectively true.

For 2022, I’m gonna make a bold prediction. The media, and maybe even politicians, are going to start to realize that the narratives that they have been pushing with regard to Covid, lockdowns, vaccinations and our economy are no longer being accepted at face value by their viewers.

The same capitalistic engine keeping Joe Rogan on the air is going to force the change in legacy media.

While they may not correct themselves totally or do a full 180°turn, they will fall in line behind those breaking new ground in the space – content creators like Rogan – and they will start to commit more to reason and less to political narratives.

I feel confident in making this prediction because I’m confident that the survival of many media empires depends on it.

I know a lot of my readers are going to tell me that this is nonsense and that I’ll be eating crow in a year. That’s fine. I won’t be surprised if a major change doesn’t happen, either. But I felt strongly enough about it that I wanted to put it down and timestamp it today.

If not for any other reason, than to start the year with an optimistic outlook that positive change could be on its way.

*  *  *

Today’s blog post was free, because I believe the content to be important enough to not place behind a paywall. If you’d like to support my work and subscribe, however, I’d be happy to offer you 22.20% off a subscription to welcome you to 2022:

The key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing report on Tuesday and the employment situation report on Friday.  The minutes from the December FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. There are a few speaking engagements from Fed officials this week.

Monday, January 3

• 09:45 AM Markit manufacturing PMI, December final (consensus 57.7, last 57.8)
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, November (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.7%, last +0.2%): We estimate a 0.5% increase in construction spending in December.

Tuesday, January 4

• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, December (GS 60.0, consensus 60.2, last 61.1): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index declined 1.1pt to 60.0 in December, reflecting the pullback in other business surveys and a drag from seasonality.
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, November (last 11,033k)
• 5:00 PM Wards total vehicle sales, December (GS 12.5m, consensus 13.1m, last 12.86m)

Wednesday, January 5

• 08:15 AM ADP employment report, December (GS +400k, consensus +360k, last +534k): We expect a 400k rise in ADP payroll employment for the month of December. Our forecast assumes firm underlying job gains and a boost from lower jobless claims but a drag from prior-month payrolls in the ADP model.
• 09:45 AM Markit US services PMI, December final (consensus 57.5, last 57.5)
• 02:00 PM Minutes from the December 14-15 FOMC meeting: The FOMC revised its statement at the December meeting to drop its previous intention to maintain an accommodative policy stance in order to keep inflation  above 2 percent for some time, and Chair Powell’s hawkish tone at the press-conference suggested that he might conclude that the maximum employment requirement for liftoff has been met even earlier than previously expected.  We continue to expect three rate hikes in 2022, and that balance sheet runoff will begin in 2022Q4.

Thursday, January 6

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 1 (GS 180k, consensus 199k, last 198k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended December 25 (consensus 1,715k, last 1,716k); We estimate initial jobless claims declined to 180k in the week ended January 1.
• 08:30 AM Trade balance, November (GS -$77.5bn, consensus -$74.7bn, last -$67.1bn)” We estimate that the trade deficit increased by $10.4bn to $77.5bn in November, reflecting an increase in imports and a decrease in exports in the advanced goods report.
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, November (GS +1.6%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.0%); Durable goods orders, November final (last +2.5%)
  We estimate that factory orders increased 1.6% in November following a +1.0% increase in October.  Durable goods orders increased 2.5% in the November advance report, but core capital goods orders declined by 0.1%.
• Durable goods orders ex-transportation, November final (last +0.8%); Core capital goods orders, November final (last -0.1%); Core capital goods shipments, November final (last +0.3%):
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, December (GS 66.0, consensus 67.0, last 69.1): We estimate that the ISM services index retrenched 3.1 points to 66.0 in December after surging to an all-time high in November. Our services tracker fell 0.5pt to 59.0, and we also expect a drag from Omicron on survey responses.
• 01:15 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will discuss the U.S. economy and monetary policy during a virtual event hosted by the CFA Society St. Louis. Prepared text and Q&A are expected.

Friday, January 7

• 8:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, December (GS +450k, consensus +400k, last +210k); Private payroll employment, December (GS +425k, consensus +370k, last +235k); Average hourly earnings (mom), December (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), December (GS +4.2%, consensus +4.2%, last +4.8%) ;Unemployment rate, December (GS 4.1%, consensus 4.1%, last 4.2%)
  • We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 450k in December (mom sa). We believe the pre-Omicron payroll trend was much firmer than the 210k pace reported for November—perhaps as high as +600k—and we note that most of the virus-related slowdown in dining activity occurred after the December survey week. Big Data labor market indicators were generally firm in the month, and the number of year-end layoffs was well below normal. This report also reflects the third month of hiring following the expiration of federal enhanced unemployment benefits. By industry, we look for a weather-related boost in the construction industry and a ~50k rebound in education employment (public and private)—the latter reflecting fewer janitors and support staff departing for the holidays. However, we expect another modest decline in retail jobs due to labor supply constraints, and we are assuming only a modest pickup in leisure-sector job growth. Finally, we believe upward revisions to prior-month payrolls are fairly likely.
  • We estimate a one-tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, reflecting a firm household employment gain and a stable or higher labor force participation rate—the latter driven by expiring UI benefits. We estimate a 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings (mom sa) that lowers the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 4.2%, reflecting mixed calendar effects and a waning boost from low-end wage pressures.
• 10:00 AM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will take part in a virtual panel on U.S. monetary policy at the annual meeting of the AEA.
• 12:15 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will chair a virtual panel discussion on black entrepreneurs and financial constraints at the annual AEA conference.

Source: Goldman

The death rate vs. pre-pandemic levels for those aged 18-64 has risen 40% over pre-pandemic levels, according to the CEO of Indianapolis-based insurance company OneAmerica.

“We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business – not just at OneAmerica,” said Scott Davidson, head of the $100 billion insurance company that’s been in operation since 1877 and has approximately 2,400 employees.

The increase represents “huge, huge numbers,” among “primarily working-age people” who have employer-sponsored group life plans through OneAmerica, according to The Center Square.

“And what we saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter, is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” Davidson said during an online news conference last week. “Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic.”

“So 40% is just unheard of.“

So the CEO in his own words. They are mandating vaccines in the workplace and raising premiums in lower vaccinated counties because they are mistakenly guessing here initially. The premiums will change to higher vaccinated areas as time moves on is my guess. He missed the plot. pic.twitter.com/avjFxkn7su

— Ed ☯️Free Thinker & Oracle (@DowdEdward) January 3, 2022

I can’t emphasize how big of a deal this is…actuaries just assess risk with math. They will be pushing the costs on to employers. Don’t trust VAERS?…well the actuaries trust math so they don’t care what you think.

— Ed ☯️Free Thinker & Oracle (@DowdEdward) January 2, 2022

According to Davidson, the majority of deaths being filed are not classified as due to Covid-19.

“What the data is showing to us is that the deaths that are being reported as COVID deaths greatly understate the actual death losses among working-age people from the pandemic. It may not all be COVID on their death certificate, but deaths are up just huge, huge numbers,” he said, adding that the company has seen an “uptick” in disability claims – at first short-term, and now long-term.

It’s hard to hide 3 sigma events from actuaries with bullshit media propaganda…take note friends & read the thread this tweet is in. This actuarial datapoint is a game changer in the debate. https://t.co/JWH6eNjWR8

— Ed ☯️Free Thinker & Oracle (@DowdEdward) January 2, 2022

“For OneAmerica, we expect the costs of this are going to be well over $100 million, and this is our smallest business. So it’s having a huge impact on that,” he said, adding that the costs will be passed on to employers purchasing the group life insurance policies.

At the same news conference where Davison spoke, Brian Tabor, the president of the Indiana Hospital Association, said that hospitals across the state are being flooded with patients “with many different conditions,” saying “unfortunately, the average Hoosiers’ health has declined during the pandemic.”

In a follow-up call, he said he did not have a breakdown showing why so many people in the state are being hospitalized – for what conditions or ailments. But he said the extraordinarily high death rate quoted by Davison matched what hospitals in the state are seeing.

“What it confirmed for me is it bore out what we’re seeing on the front end,…” he said. -The Center Square

The number of those hospitalized in Indiana are now higher than before the Covid-19 vaccine was introduced a year ago, and is in fact higher than at any point in the past five years, according to Dr. Lindsay Weaver, Indiana’s chief medical officer.

Meanwhile, the article can’t be viewed in the UK.

Can’t access the article from the U.K. pic.twitter.com/ohJUV9PKl9

— Lulu (@LuluToast) January 2, 2022