Democrats Still Have a Way To Pass Their Voting Rights Legislation


Voting Rights

Senate Democrats keep trying to change the filibuster rules so they can pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act and the Freedom to Vote Act. They also keep failing, and last week they failed again. So it still takes 60 votes to curtail a filibuster by ending debate on a bill. The Democrats don’t have 60 votes in the Senate, so many people declared both bills dead.

But there is still a conceivable way the Democrats could pass their legislation with a simple majority vote. It would take a marathon “talking filibuster” in true Mr. Smith Goes to Washington fashion.

Under the Senate’s rules, Republicans can delay a vote as long as they keep the debate alive on the Senate floor. And as Sen. Ted Cruz (R–Texas) and others have demonstrated, it is possible to hold the floor for a long time. But Senate Rule XIX limits the number of speeches a senator can make, stating that “no Senator shall speak more than twice upon any one question in debate on the same legislative day.” The Senate’s presiding officer must call a vote on a bill when no senators left on floor can speak within the limitations of the rule. After this, a simple majority can pass a bill.

Could the Republicans simply take turns talking until the day is over, then start over again? No, because the Democrats control when the Senate adjourns. A legislative “day” does not end at 5 p.m. Senators have to vote to adjourn the Senate, and this does not have to happen at the end of the calendar day. Democrats can make a legislative day last for multiple calendar days by keeping the Senate in continuous debate on the bill, or by voting for a temporary recess rather than adjourning.

The Democrats have tried to narrow Rule XIX to create a carveout for this specific legislation. In effect, they wanted to strip away Republicans’ ability to offer amendments, make motions, and raise points of order during the debate. But Sen. Joe Manchin (D–W.Va.) wasn’t on board with this—not because he opposes the “talking filibuster,” but because the proposed rule change would substantially limit Republican participation in the legislative process.

Yet Democrats don’t need to change the rules to block GOP amendments. They can defeat amendments from Republicans with no debate on a simple majority vote. While Republicans may offer different motions to prolong their filibuster once they have exhausted their two speeches, historical precedent suggests that the effort to do so will be futile. When given the opportunity, senators have never offered amendments—or other motions—indefinitely to postpone a vote.

Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D–Ariz.), who have joined the chamber’s Republicans in opposing changes to the filibuster, are more likely to support this strategy, since it keeps the Senate’s current rule in place. Sinema has stated that she supports the two bills and is opposed only to “eliminating the 60-vote threshold.” Manchin has not ruled out supporting the legislation, and he says he supports efforts to increase the pressure on filibustering senators. Speaking on NBC’s Meet the Press last year, Manchin commented, “If you want to make it a little bit more painful, make him stand there and talk.” It seems that Manchin draws the line at “breaking the rules to change the rules,” not at passing voting rights legislation on a simple majority vote.

If Democrats want to pass their voting rights bills, they should listen to Manchin and Sinema and force Republicans to embark on a “talking filibuster”. No matter what happens next, Democrats should remember that the filibuster is not a simple roadblock—it’s a tool in legislators’ arsenal.

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Instagram Bans Healthy Eating Ads for Promoting ‘Negative Self-Perception’


zumaamericasthirtythree535254

Social media companies pull ADHD ads by mental health startup Cerebral. The latest ad ban by Instagram and TikTok highlights the slippery slope of “misinformation” purges as well as the warped way some folks have come to view food and healthy eating in 2022.

Instagram and TikTok are both pulling ads from the mental health company Cerebral for supposedly violating policies related to eating disorders and to misinformation.

The ads suggested people with attention deficit problems may fall victim to impulse eating. They note a link between ADHD and obesity. And they suggest that getting ADHD treatment through Cerebral could help people to “stop overeating.”

Stephanie Chan, a spokesperson for Instagram parent company Meta, said the ads were pulled because the company doesn’t allow “content that promotes misleading health claims” or attempts “to generate negative self-perception in order to promote health-related products. We remove ads that break these rules.”

But research has indeed linked ADHD to obesity, and ADHD forums often discuss impulsive or disordered eating habits among people with the disorder.

And promoting good dietary habits hardly seems like it should be discarded as merely “generat[ing] negative self-perception.” Sure, some people might feel bad whenever they see anything about healthy eating or weight, just like some people might feel bad when they encounter any advice or imagery related to healthy habits they lack or things they wish to change about themselves. But is that really justification for this content—which may actually help some folks—being banned?

Of course, Meta and TikTok are private companies and are allowed to set whatever rules they want on their own platforms. Attempts to force private companies to platform speech they find objectionable are no good.

But tech companies’ ever-increasing pool of things that can’t be said isn’t just the result of their executives’ own beliefs or a simple response to market pressure. It’s come as government officials increasingly demand that they have a say over what can and can’t be found online.

This government pressure and support for it are often pushed as a way to protect people from “misinformation” or to keep teens from doing dangerous things. Arguably, these are neither roles for government nor for tech executives, but let’s put their general desirability or wisdom aside for a moment. The Cerebral ad ban shows the practical problem with such pushes: They inevitably creep far beyond their purported scope.

Supporters of misinformation bans imagine they’ll only snag obvious lies and grifters, like people pushing miracle cures for COVID-19 or ranting that vaccines contain microchips from Bill Gates. But now we’ve got companies pulling content for…lacking context? Not providing as complete a picture as an academic meta-analysis?

Kevin Antshel, a Syracuse University psychology professor and ADHD researcher, suggested to NBC News that the Cerebral ads were bad because they didn’t reference other conditions with which ADHD is linked:

[Antshel] said that Cerebral’s ads painted an incomplete picture of the condition. While research has associated obesity with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, ADHD has been linked to many illnesses, he said.

“ADHD is associated with just about anything else that you can imagine,” he said, including autism, schizophrenia and depression. He added that Cerebral’s ads appeared to be playing on concerns among Americans about “being thin and concerns with diet and weight loss.”

Antshel also complains that TikTok ads from the company Done say ADHD meds can lead to “a quiet mind,” though this may overstate the case and omits information about side effects.

How quickly we’ve gone from shunning outright lies to suggesting maybe mental health content is misinformation for not being as nuanced as a psychology professor may want.

Besides—what’s wrong with concerns about diet and weight loss? While some people may take them too far, they’re certainly not an inherently bad thing. It’s bizarre to suggest that any talk of these topics is dangerous or exists only to promote eating disorders and negative body image. There’s a big difference between pro-anorexia content and pushing counseling to help with ADHD impulse control.

But tasking tech companies with perfect content moderation or else they’ll face congressional hearings, more regulation, more lawsuits, etc. invariably leads to this sort of mischief and mission creep.


FREE MINDS

The Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) is back yet again. The deadline for passage of the act expired in 1982. The amendment to the Constitution only got enough states voting to ratify it in 2020. But congressional Democrats say that’s good enough. On Thursday, they introduced a resolution that would recognize the ERA as part of the Constitution.

The resolution says the amendment “has met the requirements of the Constitution and become valid to all intents and purposes as a part of the Constitution.”

The Trump-era DOJ said the ERA was over. Now, the DOJ has issued an opinion saying that decision “does not preclude the House or the Senate from taking further action regarding ratification of the ERA.”

See more on the ERA’s revival here and here.


FREE MARKETS

Marijuana as American as apple pie, says congressional Republican. U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace (R–S.C.) wants to end the federal prohibition on marijuana. “It’s American, it’s uniting,” Mace told Forbes. “There are three things that really bring people together—animals, Britney Spears and cannabis. Those are the three things I’ve found that have struck a chord with the American people and that can bring people together at the dinner table—just like apple pie.” Read more about her cannabis decriminalization efforts here.


QUICK HITS

• A new study published in Free Radical Biology and Medicine finds that “cannabinol protects neurons from oxidative stress and cell death, two of the major contributors to Alzheimer’s disease.” Cannabinol is a compound in cannabis that’s less known (and less researched) than cannabidiol (CBD) and tetrahydrocannabinol (THC).

• No, America is not on the brink of a civil war, writes Musa al-Gharbi in The Guardian. “The perception that we are is almost purely an artifact of people taking poll and survey data at face value despite overwhelming evidence that we probably shouldn’t.”

• A federal judge has halted enforcement of South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem’s executive order changing the rules for obtaining abortion pills.

• Boston’s vaccine mandate for city workers hits a snag. A state “appellate judge has temporarily frozen Mayor Michelle Wu’s coronavirus vaccine mandate, leading the city to suspend enforcement as it gets ready to respond in court,” reports the Boston Herald. “Wu’s December policy changes requiring all municipal workers to get the jab are ‘temporarily stayed pending review’ of a lower court’s ruling on a request by three unions for a preliminary injunction.”

• An Alabama police department is accused of harassing people who criticize it on social media.

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Instagram Bans Healthy Eating Ads for Promoting ‘Negative Self-Perception’


zumaamericasthirtythree535254

Social media companies pull ADHD ads by mental health startup Cerebral. The latest ad ban by Instagram and TikTok highlights the slippery slope of “misinformation” purges as well as the warped way some folks have come to view food and healthy eating in 2022.

Instagram and TikTok are both pulling ads from the mental health company Cerebral for supposedly violating policies related to eating disorders and to misinformation.

The ads suggested people with attention deficit problems may fall victim to impulse eating. They note a link between ADHD and obesity. And they suggest that getting ADHD treatment through Cerebral could help people to “stop overeating.”

Stephanie Chan, a spokesperson for Instagram parent company Meta, said the ads were pulled because the company doesn’t allow “content that promotes misleading health claims” or attempts “to generate negative self-perception in order to promote health-related products. We remove ads that break these rules.”

But research has indeed linked ADHD to obesity, and ADHD forums often discuss impulsive or disordered eating habits among people with the disorder.

And promoting good dietary habits hardly seems like it should be discarded as merely “generat[ing] negative self-perception.” Sure, some people might feel bad whenever they see anything about healthy eating or weight, just like some people might feel bad when they encounter any advice or imagery related to healthy habits they lack or things they wish to change about themselves. But is that really justification for this content—which may actually help some folks—being banned?

Of course, Meta and TikTok are private companies and are allowed to set whatever rules they want on their own platforms. Attempts to force private companies to platform speech they find objectionable are no good.

But tech companies’ ever-increasing pool of things that can’t be said isn’t just the result of their executives’ own beliefs or a simple response to market pressure. It’s come as government officials increasingly demand that they have a say over what can and can’t be found online.

This government pressure and support for it are often pushed as a way to protect people from “misinformation” or to keep teens from doing dangerous things. Arguably, these are neither roles for government nor for tech executives, but let’s put their general desirability or wisdom aside for a moment. The Cerebral ad ban shows the practical problem with such pushes: They inevitably creep far beyond their purported scope.

Supporters of misinformation bans imagine they’ll only snag obvious lies and grifters, like people pushing miracle cures for COVID-19 or ranting that vaccines contain microchips from Bill Gates. But now we’ve got companies pulling content for…lacking context? Not providing as complete a picture as an academic meta-analysis?

Kevin Antshel, a Syracuse University psychology professor and ADHD researcher, suggested to NBC News that the Cerebral ads were bad because they didn’t reference other conditions with which ADHD is linked:

[Antshel] said that Cerebral’s ads painted an incomplete picture of the condition. While research has associated obesity with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, ADHD has been linked to many illnesses, he said.

“ADHD is associated with just about anything else that you can imagine,” he said, including autism, schizophrenia and depression. He added that Cerebral’s ads appeared to be playing on concerns among Americans about “being thin and concerns with diet and weight loss.”

Antshel also complains that TikTok ads from the company Done say ADHD meds can lead to “a quiet mind,” though this may overstate the case and omits information about side effects.

How quickly we’ve gone from shunning outright lies to suggesting maybe mental health content is misinformation for not being as nuanced as a psychology professor may want.

Besides—what’s wrong with concerns about diet and weight loss? While some people may take them too far, they’re certainly not an inherently bad thing. It’s bizarre to suggest that any talk of these topics is dangerous or exists only to promote eating disorders and negative body image. There’s a big difference between pro-anorexia content and pushing counseling to help with ADHD impulse control.

But tasking tech companies with perfect content moderation or else they’ll face congressional hearings, more regulation, more lawsuits, etc. invariably leads to this sort of mischief and mission creep.


FREE MINDS

The Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) is back yet again. The deadline for passage of the act expired in 1982. The amendment to the Constitution only got enough states voting to ratify it in 2020. But congressional Democrats say that’s good enough. On Thursday, they introduced a resolution that would recognize the ERA as part of the Constitution.

The resolution says the amendment “has met the requirements of the Constitution and become valid to all intents and purposes as a part of the Constitution.”

The Trump-era DOJ said the ERA was over. Now, the DOJ has issued an opinion saying that decision “does not preclude the House or the Senate from taking further action regarding ratification of the ERA.”

See more on the ERA’s revival here and here.


FREE MARKETS

Marijuana as American as apple pie, says congressional Republican. U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace (R–S.C.) wants to end the federal prohibition on marijuana. “It’s American, it’s uniting,” Mace told Forbes. “There are three things that really bring people together—animals, Britney Spears and cannabis. Those are the three things I’ve found that have struck a chord with the American people and that can bring people together at the dinner table—just like apple pie.” Read more about her cannabis decriminalization efforts here.


QUICK HITS

• A new study published in Free Radical Biology and Medicine finds that “cannabinol protects neurons from oxidative stress and cell death, two of the major contributors to Alzheimer’s disease.” Cannabinol is a compound in cannabis that’s less known (and less researched) than cannabidiol (CBD) and tetrahydrocannabinol (THC).

• No, America is not on the brink of a civil war, writes Musa al-Gharbi in The Guardian. “The perception that we are is almost purely an artifact of people taking poll and survey data at face value despite overwhelming evidence that we probably shouldn’t.”

• A federal judge has halted enforcement of South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem’s executive order changing the rules for obtaining abortion pills.

• Boston’s vaccine mandate for city workers hits a snag. A state “appellate judge has temporarily frozen Mayor Michelle Wu’s coronavirus vaccine mandate, leading the city to suspend enforcement as it gets ready to respond in court,” reports the Boston Herald. “Wu’s December policy changes requiring all municipal workers to get the jab are ‘temporarily stayed pending review’ of a lower court’s ruling on a request by three unions for a preliminary injunction.”

• An Alabama police department is accused of harassing people who criticize it on social media.

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Rabobank: “Prepare For Impact”

Rabobank: “Prepare For Impact”

By Michael Every of Rabobank

“Prepare For Impact”

This is not a Friday brimming with positive developments, to put it mildly. However, at time of writing Asian stocks were following US futures higher on what looks to my jaded eye to be nothing more than a good key earnings report. Here’s a Friday thought: perhaps we should dump all our chattering economic data and burbling/shilling financial reporting and just have the earnings and share price of one firm as a proxy for everything everywhere, the apotheosis of the agglomeration that globalized financial capitalism drives: but why am I even saying “perhaps” when one reads all the rest of the news that apparently doesn’t matter?

For example, US natural gas prices leaped 72% overnight before retreating. Thin markets, yes, and a short squeeze into options expiry.  Regardless, hardly the kind of calm trading in a key commodity that already-rattled markets wanted to see. And hardly a bearish price signal.

Moreover, the Fed might go 50bp in March to get ahead of market expectations and prove that it is still capable of taking its official inflation mandate seriously, mutters a Bloomberg headline. Expect markets to then cling to the meme that if the Fed goes 50, it will mean they don’t then have to keep going 25. Which makes no real sense given we are talking about supply-side inflation the Fed isn’t in control of anyway, at which point the conversation will jump back to agglomerated globalized financial capitalism’s next earning report.

For cryptonites, the US is to regulate Bitcoin and other crypto assets over “national security”, says Barron’s. The White House apparently won’t issue recommendations, but all related government agencies would be given three to six months to come up with proposals, with the White House acting as a policy coordinator. Some will say this is bullish, because: 1) it might give the assets a seal of approval; and 2) it might thin out the competition in a market in which you can create a new ‘currency’ overnight. Both are logical. Yet so is scrutiny of everything crypto then does, and taxation of every transfer, which means it won’t be able to operate at the scale required to ever emerge as a day-to-day rival to state-backed fiat currency and their more efficient, untaxed payment systems. How many times has this Daily warned that while it’s a wonderful feeling to give The Man the finger, The Man has four of his own, and a thumb, and clenched into a fist? (On which note, GameStop fun and games and meme stonks madness was a year ago this week: and RobinHood is today looking a far less merry man.)

Still being underplayed by markets, US President Biden called Ukrainian President Zelensky and reportedly told him to “prepare for impact” as Russian invasion is “inevitable” in February once the ground freezes, and Kyiv might be “sacked”. Many journalists have been leaked details of this call from both sides, and there is disagreement on what was said over the probability of war. Some report it was not stated as “inevitable”, just “virtually certain”; another only “a distinct possibility”. Most agree the call was “tense and difficult”, and that Zelensky disagreed with the US assessment. The Russian foreign ministry has also just stated war with Ukraine is “impossible”. Logically, somebody is either being dishonest or is very badly informed – and either option on either side is of concern for markets given war would imply something similar to what we just saw in US natural gas prices.

On the geoeconomic front, China has been given permission by the WTO to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US. Expect these to now be used as trade war weapons aimed at disarmament. Which we have a lot of right now, and not going well. Also expect fury against the WTO from some in D.C., even if they aren’t running things now. Meanwhile, the EU are to proceed with a WTO case against China over the latter’s actions against Lithuania, saying that Beijing’s actions threaten the integrity of the single market, with even the German Federation of Industry backing this action. China says it is following all WTO rules: Europe says deleting Lithuania entirely because of a political/foreign policy decision is not one of them. Of course, nothing will happen quickly on this front, but it again shows more trade/geopolitical tensions ahead.

It also shows that German Chancellor calling people in Brussels saying ‘Don’t do it’ didn’t do it, which speaks to shifting intra-EU power dynamics: and both global tensions and shifting intra-EU power are evident in French President Macron calling an Indo-Pacific summit on 22 February that has invited everyone from Japan, India, and South Korea through to Comoros and Micronesia – except China!

Potentially the second most significant news after the “inevitability” of war was this shipping headline: “US to get an open register based out of the Virgin Islands. 2021’s ‘In Deep Ship’ focused on the geopolitical drivers of the global shipping/supply-chain crisis and, by looking at maritime history/grand strategy, proposed logical US actions as the ‘ship of things to come’ if it wanted to match its military control of the oceans with commercial power:

  1. Raise tariffs
  2. Use the US market to force global carriers to change pricing/practices to its benefit
  3. Build a rival to China’s marine Belt and Road with others
  4. Force vessels to re-flag to the US
  5. Build a new US merchant marine
  6. Refuse to take goods from some carriers or ports
  7. Charter private firms to bring home key materials (i.e., privateering); and
  8. The US Navy stops protecting certain sea lanes, forcing cost onto others

We already saw #1 a few years ago; the Ocean Shipping Reform Act before Congress addresses #2; there is a lot of talk about #3; and the headline above now speaks to #4.

The rationale for the new US shipping flag/registry is firmly aimed at the established biggest names in the business, noting they have grown too large for true compliance oversight:

“50% of the ships that traverse our international waterways are registered in just three jurisdictions –Panama, Liberia, and the Marshall Islands– where loosely enforced regulations and lack of due diligence and oversight has created enormous risk to the US and global shipping industry and facilitated illicit activity on the high seas.”

It seems the US will soon ‘incentivise’ vessels to reflag to where they can be better regulated – to US needs/purposes. Having a regulatory hand on the maritime wheel is a necessary but not sufficient condition to take back control of supply chains. Also note this comes at a time when the US already admits it couldn’t fight a major war if it needed to as it couldn’t get the military cargo to do so there via Sealift.

Lastly, the UK is still waiting for ’50 Shades of Gray/Cake’ to decide the fate of PM BYO. And Italy is still unable to decide on a president: what happens constitutionally if we stay in this limbo forever? (I am asking for a friend.)

Happy Friday – and prepare for impact.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/28/2022 – 09:46

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3u5Ma4X Tyler Durden

The Fed’s “Instability Trap”

The Fed’s “Instability Trap”

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

What if the Fed can’t hike rates? It’s an interesting question and one we delved into in Part 1 – “Fed Won’t Hike Rates As Much As Expected.”

With the January FOMC meeting now behind us, we have much better visibility about the Fed’s intentions.

“With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.” – FOMC

The post-meeting statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not provide a specific time frame for increasing the overnight lending rate. However, there are many indications that such could happen as soon as the March meeting. As shown in the charts below courtesy of “The Daily Shot.”

About the Fed’s “Quantitative Easing” program, the FOMC noted its bond-buying program would fall to just $30 billion in February, down from $120 billion a month in 2021. In addition, the Fed will terminate purchases in March consistent with an increase in interest rates.

Interestingly, there was no specific indication of when the Fed might start to reduce its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. The most significant risk to equities is the contraction of liquidity from “Quantitative Tightening. Such is what preceded the market rout in 2018.

However, while the Fed is intent on hiking rates and reducing accommodation, I am reminded of an age-old proverb:

“The road to hell is paved with good intentions.”

While the Fed may intend to hike rates and taper their balance sheet, the real question is, “can they?”

The Fed’s Inflation Trap

There are two primary considerations for the Fed as we progress into 2022. As noted in part-1, the reversal of liquidity is problematic.

As recently discussed, “deflation” is the overarching threat longer-term. However, in the short term, the flood of liquidity into the system created, as expected, surging inflationary pressures. With the measure of money in the system, known as M2, skyrocketing, the resulting surge in inflation is not surprising.

Furthermore, in a previous Bloomberg interview, Larry Summers stated:

“There is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind not seen in a generation. I worry that containing an inflationary outbreak without triggering a recession could be even more difficult now than in the past.”

As we indicated in part-1, inflation surged almost exactly 9-months after the massive infusions of fiscal policy. So while many, including the Fed, suggest inflation is problematic, M2 indicates disinflation remains the most likely outcome.

The current surge in inflationary pressures pushed the Fed to hike rates and reduce its bond-buying program. However, they could be acting precisely at the wrong time. In 1998, Alan Greenspan started aggressively hiking rates to combat an “inflation threat” that never materialized. The resulting consequence was the implosion of the “dot.com” bubble.

However, such is why inflation isn’t the most significant risk limiting the Fed.

The Fed “Instability” Trap

“When it comes to Federal Reserve policy, investors are focused on the wrong question. Investors continue to agonize over when the Fed will trim its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases. A more important question is when will the Fed raise interest rates. More important still: whether the Fed actually can raise rates.” – Joe LaVorgna, Barron’s

That is a critical question. As discussed previously, the Fed is dependent on “stability” to keep the financial “house of cards” from collapsing.

With the entirety of the financial ecosystem heavily dependent on debt, the “instability of stability” is the most significant risk to the Fed.

After more than 12-years of the most unprecedented monetary policy program in U.S. history, the Fed realizes there are significant risks in the financial system. The behavioral biases of individuals remain the most serious risk facing the Fed. 

The Fed’s actions have repeatedly led to adverse outcomes throughout history despite the best of intentions.

  • In the early 70’s it was the “Nifty Fifty” stocks,

  • Then Mexican and Argentine bonds a few years after that

  • “Portfolio Insurance” was the “thing” in the mid -80’s

  • Dot.com anything was a great investment in 1999

  • Real estate has been a boom/bust cycle roughly every other decade, but 2007 was a doozy

  • Today, it’s real estate, FAANNGT, debt, credit, private equity, SPAC’s, IPO’s, “Meme” stocks…or rather…”everthing.”

“If easy money is the bedrock of valuations and the Fed is getting ready to shift the bedrock, investors best pay attention to market forecasts and how the Fed ultimately acts. – Michael Lebowitz

With the Fed now reversing monetary accommodation, the question is how long before something breaks.

Trapped At Zero?

Looking at the long-term history of the overnight lending rate versus its exponential growth trend, it tells an interesting story.

The rise and fall of stock prices have very little to do with the average American and their participation in the domestic economy. Interest rates are an entirely different matter. As discussed in “Rates Do Matter:”

In the short term, the economy and the markets (due to the current momentum) can  DEFY the laws of financial gravity as interest rates rise. However, as interest rates increase, they act as a “brake” on economic activity. Such is because higher rates NEGATIVELY impact a highly levered economy:

  • Rates increases debt servicing requirements reducing future productive investment.

  • Housing slows. People buy payments, not houses.

  • Higher borrowing costs lead to lower profit margins.

  • The massive derivatives and credit markets get negatively impacted.

  • Variable rate interest payments on credit cards and home equity lines of credit increase, reducing consumption.

  • Rising defaults on debt service will negatively impact banks which are still not as well capitalized as most believe.

  • Many corporate share buyback plans and dividend payments are done through the use of cheap debt.

  • Corporate capital expenditures are dependent on low borrowing costs.

  • The deficit/GDP ratio will soar as borrowing costs rise sharply.

The debt problem exposes the Fed’s risk and why they continue to look for excuses NOT to hike rates. (Like “full employment” even though jobless claims are at record lows.) However, given economic stability was not achieved in the last decade, it is doubtful the withdrawal of monetary accommodation will be “risk-free.”

The evidence is quite clear that surging debt and deficits inhibit organic growth, and the massive debt levels are sensitive to increases in interest rates.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat

As we argued in part one, we believe the Fed’s ability to hike rates from the zero bound is minimal before “financial stability” becomes an issue.

The primary bullish argument for owning stocks over the last decade is that low-interest rates support high valuations.

If that is the case, higher rates will undermine the financial markets.

With exceptionally high market valuations, Fed rate hikes historically led to events that devastated investors. Those events created the Fed’s repetitive cycle of monetary policy.

  1. Monetary policy drags forward future consumption leaving a void in the future.

  2. Since monetary policy does not create self-sustaining economic growth, ever-larger amounts of liquidity are needed to maintain the same level of activity.

  3. The filling of the “gap” between fundamentals and reality leads to economic contraction.

  4. Job losses rise, wealth effect diminishes, and real wealth reduces. 

  5. The middle class shrinks further.

  6. Central banks act to provide more liquidity to offset recessionary drag and restart economic growth by dragging forward future consumption. 

  7. Wash, Rinse, Repeat.

Conclusion

“Financial markets’ sensitivity to monetary policy has never been higher. The Fed’s balance sheet doubled since the end of the last financial crisis and is now 40% of gross domestic product. By buying massive amounts of bonds, the Fed lowered rates and used asset prices, like stocks, as the primary tool for monetary policy. That’s through the so-called wealth effect, or the tendency for consumers (two-thirds of GDP) to spend more as their assets grow.” – Joe LaVorgna

Therein lies the problem.

If the Fed tightens, the existing debt pile becomes more expensive to service, and stocks fall, hampering consumer confidence and economic growth.

On the other hand, if the Fed doesn’t tighten, debt across households, companies, and the government will continue to grow, making it more challenging for the Fed to act in the future

The Fed has put itself in a box that will be difficult to get out of, especially if economic growth slows, which is almost a certainty.

As we concluded previously:

Unfortunately, we doubt the Fed has the stomach for “financial instability.” As such, we doubt they will hike rates as much as the market currently expects.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/28/2022 – 09:24

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3KTXcjK Tyler Durden

Pittsburgh Bridge Collapses Hours Before Biden Visit

Pittsburgh Bridge Collapses Hours Before Biden Visit

10 people were injured when a snow covered bridge in Pittsburgh collapsed Friday morning, just hours before President Joe Biden is scheduled to visit for a previously arranged trip to discuss infrastructure.

According to Pittsburgh Fire Chief Darryl Jones, three people were taken to local hospitals though none had life-threatening injuries.

Photo Credit: Jeremy Habowski

“It sounded like a huge snow plow … pushing along the surface with no snow,” said neighbor Wendy Stroh. “I didn’t know what it was … It was very frightening.”

Several cars and a Port Authority bus – which contained the three individuals who have been hospitalized – were involved in the collapse.

And of course, Mayor Ed Gainey used the collapse to highlight the city’s infrastructure funding needs!

Just hours before President Joe Biden’s scheduled speech in Pittsburgh about the historic $1.2 trillion infrastructure plan, Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey said the bridge over Hot Dog Dam Dog Park was inspected just last September.

“This bipartisan infrastructure law is critical,” Gainey said. “At the end of the day it’s critical that we get this funding.” CBS2 Pittsburgh

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/28/2022 – 09:07

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Consequences, Consequences, Who Would Have Guessed…

Consequences, Consequences, Who Would Have Guessed…

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“The downright bleeding obvious is often a surprise!”

Markets are great at reacting to a single stimulus but are like a frog in a pan of warming water when it comes to consequential events. Forget “Black Swans” or “no-see-ums”, but figure out how the increasingly complex picture of unfolding events and consequences are driving markets!

This morning I am struggling to find a single topic for my usual Friday rant. There are literally so many separate threads driving markets, from recession/recovery indicators, company earnings reports, domestic politics, geopolitics, and rising dissent, that it’s difficult to focus on any one point and paint it as the dominant factor.

But, one month in, I’ve formed a pretty unshakable view on the year ahead: 2022 is going to be very different. That does not necessarily mean very bad. Different and Bad are not mutually reinforcing unless you let them be… Whatever happens in coming months, this will be a year of tremendous opportunity… but also danger.

When we think about volatility, we tend to think about steep lines on a price and volume chart, and the Vix fear index. Fast moving prices mean opportunities to extract extra value from the market – or lose more. However, we need to think more about event volatility – if that is the right expression.

Events generate consequences, which are often unforeseen and unpredictable. We tend to think of events in binary terms of “no-see-ems”, or Black Swans as they’re now called – things that come out of no-where to shock markets. Markets are far less unsettled by consequential effects – where small events occur, follow and reinforce each other. The cumulative negative effects from a cascade of small events, each of which will have spawned consequences of their own – can suddenly result in catastrophe. They can become slow moving train-wrecks, but are often retrospectively completely predictable – meaning they fail the black swan test.

In many ways markets can be a bit like the proverbial frog in a pan of water. It seems utterly unconcerned and unaware as the heat is turned up. But, threaten a frog with a sudden sharp pointy knife, and you won’t see it for slippery dust… Or maybe markets are like kids stretching a rubber band, knowing it’s going to snap, but still excitedly pulling it.

The way which markets suddenly break down is a branch of chaos theory. In a stable market the amplitude of prices moves within an apparently predictable band (to which analysts assign standard deviation, sigma, risk labels). The point where markets suddenly break out is usually unexpected. Suddenly the price will pass the chaos point. What triggers these chaotic break outs? Market over-exuberance and/or the multiplying consequences of events on prices.

What never ceases to surprise me about markets is how quickly prices can rise and fall on a single piece of company news, a single line on the annual report, a single word from a central banker, or a single (one of many) mistake by a politician. Yet, show markets a series of unfolding events and there is a stubborn reluctance to put them together in the bigger jigsaw of the economy. We understand single events better than a complex series of events – because that’s the way we’re programmed; survive the immediate fight or flight threat and face the next set of consequences.

Looking at the markets this morning and trying to figure out where its all going, I can’t think when I’ve ever seen the picture look so complex. We’ve got so many “events” happening, each of which will trigger ripples and consequences across markets – that the possibility of chaotic break-out seems very high.

Let me try to explain with a snapshot: (I could probably spend hours writing pages on each of these, and others, but I’ve a got a day-job to do):

  • Over the past few days we’ve seen various firms, including Apple and Tesla, post stronger earnings despite supply chain problems. Yet the world’s second largest economy, China, remains in effective lockdown and supply chains multiply. Successful firms are finding new ways to operate – which has massive consequences for those that don’t.

  • We’ve seen analysts predicting stronger US and UK recovery in months ahead (although the IMF recently knocked back estimates for both countries). House prices remain unaffordable. Inflation, increased taxes, energy bills are all set to eliminate discretionary consumer spending.

  • While the UK economy slides into a backchannel in terms of trade treaties – the prime concern of the political classes is to not let Boris have his cake or eat it. The US has failed to pass critical infrastructure development funding due to political gridlock. Political failure has massive forward consequences – which will magnify ahead of this year’s mid-terms.

  • We’ve got the Bank of England and the Fed both expected to tighten. After 12 years of over-easy money and cheap capital, the consequences on markets are obvious in terms of inflated financial assets – but there are equally dangerous consequences from unwinding over-abundant capital in the ways companies have reacted to it – most visibly in profitless tech sectors and speculative bubbles like crypto.

  • We’ve got a real or imagined threat of war in Ukraine from which a billion potential consequences will flow.. Even if nothing happens (my call) the growing tension in Ukraine, rising tension on Taiwan, while Russia and China apparently come together, could spell distraction disaster for US policy, Biden and the dollar.

  • Marcelo Claure of Softbank walking out after he didn’t get a $1 bln bonus from Masayoshi-Son.

Curiously, I have suspicion it’s all going to go badly wrong in the UK first as we approach a political chaotic break. Nothing surprises me in the news anymore. How did we ever get here? Let me explain.

Later today I will pay taxes to HMRC. Worst day of the year.

If you are a large supranational you might decide to make a token payment, and instruct your Panama based lawyers to come to an arrangement with your tame tax inspector. You might suggest you cover the inconvenience with, say £1 in ever £1000 the HRMC has assessed your taxes due from UK earnings. The HMRC will be pragmatic – and accept the deal, even give you a certificate of tax compliance or some such paper you can wave at protesters to conclusively demonstrate you are not a tax dodger. The HMRC doesn’t have the time or money to waste chasing down expensively lawyered-up corporates.

They chase the low hanging fruit instead.

If you are a barely solvent middle class family juggling escalating bills and fees, it’s about this time you get hit with an additional surcharge or payment, or a demand for money on account. There is no appeal – pay or expect to suffer. Young professionals working in London (I am de-facto banker to two of them), have been surviving on stale bread since last Wednesday, wondering how they are going to pay next month’s gas bill, and how they can afford their flat after their earnings are slashed when taxes and national insurance hikes kick in. They are living anything but “Their Best Lives” the glossy mags and social media show everyone else is having…

And if you are a struggling single parent trying eke out any kind of life on your wholly inadequate benefits, it’s about this time of year the HRMC sends you a letter saying a clerical error means you’ve been overpaid £100 per month for the last 18 months, and you have 3 days to repay the entire £1800 with interest – if not the bailiffs will attend and throw you and your brood out into the snow. There is no appeal and even though the bulk of such demands that taken up by MPs are subsequently dropped, the HMRC follow a proud tradition of tax-gatherers through history – pick on the weak.

And then you might pick up the papers and read how the much the PPE companies that secured Fast-track VIP government contracts (because they were friends of Tory MPs), have made from the pandemic.

Or maybe you will read about how the bounce-back loan programme became a fraudsters dream – £47 bln of credit given to 1.6mm applicants – of which £20 bln is never going to be repaid. We’re all familiar with stories like the small businessman next door who suddenly bought a Porsche, or the family that got the new holiday home in Rock. Lord Agnew, the counter-fraud minister, resigned, citing “desperately inadequate” efforts to stop tax-payers money being effectively stolen.

Or maybe it will be the news well fancied Tory Leadership contender Nadhim Zahawi was apparently instrumental in speeding Greensill loans to the crooked Sanjeev Gupta’s steel businesses last summer, after former PM David Cameron had trousered millions working for Greensill? Or that Lynn Truss spent £500k flying herself to Australia or back..? Or maybe it will be the local authority officers on the Isle of Wight taking bungs from Big Pharma to push drugs on the Island? And, I haven’t even mentioned Party Gate.

The point is that news is cumulative. I suspect the Tory strategists are betting we don’t see that. I’m betting the Brits are approaching that chaotic breaking point when it comes to political patience. If there was an election tomorrow, I have some pretty harsh questions for my Tory MP… and I won’t be making the mistake of voting for Boris again – back to Labour for me. I suspect many more of my neighbours will just vote Liberal instead.

And I can’t think of anything worse….

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/28/2022 – 08:50

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Fed’s “Favorite” Inflation Indicator Highest In 38 Years, Personal Spending Drops Most Since Feb

Fed’s “Favorite” Inflation Indicator Highest In 38 Years, Personal Spending Drops Most Since Feb

Analysts expected a mixed picture from income and spending data in December (with spending expected to drop and incomes rise – an odd pairing during the Christmas month) and they were right with incomes rising 0.3% MoM (slightly less than expected) but spending tumbling 0.6% MoM (meeting expectations). That is the first drop in spending since Feb 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

On the income side, private workers wage growth continues to slow…

  • Wages of private workers up 10.0% Y/Y, down from 10.2% in Nov and the lowest since  March 2021

  • Wages of public workers up 4.4% Y/Y, up from 4.2% in Nov (which was lowest since march 2021)

Of course, adjusted for inflation, real personal spending was down 1.0% MoM (after being down 0.2% MoM in November). Real Personal Spending is still up 7.1% YoY however…

Source: Bloomberg

Which – in a fiscally responsible way – is a positive for Americans’ pocketbooks as the savings rate picked up…

With all eyes on The Fed’s next steps, today’s Q4 Employment Cost Index (wages and benefits measures) data are of particular interest which saw ECI QoQ slow modestly from +1.3% to +1.0% (still the second highest since 2006). On a YoY basis, employment costs rose 4.0% – the highest since 2001…

Source: Bloomberg

While the base case forecast from Powell is for inflation to recede in the second half of the year as more supply chain pressures ease, the Fed chair was cognizant of the more structural upside risks to inflation that would stem from persistent wage growth. So, today’s ECI will be critical for assessing whether the more aggressive policy tightening is warranted.

SGH Macro’s Tim Duy recently noted that “it will be challenging to manage wage inflation greater than 5% with 2% inflation (unless there has been a big boost in trend productivity growth), and there will be pressure this year from labor looking to be compensated for high inflation.

Duy warns, “My central concern is that the Fed expects wage growth to slow largely endogenously whereas historically it hasn’t outside of a recession.”

Today’s modest slowdown in the pace of ECi is a positive (at the margin).

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE Deflator – surged more than expected to +4.9% YoY, its highest since April 1983…

Source: Bloomberg

Not much here for the doves to cling to… which probably explains why the markt is now pricing in 5 full rate-hikes by year-end…

 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/28/2022 – 08:43

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3IHWYKw Tyler Durden

The Right to Defy Criminal Demands: Possible Limits on the Right to Defy (Part II)

I’ve just finished up a rough draft of my The Right to Defy Criminal Demands article, and I thought I’d serialize it here, minus most of the footnotes (which you can see in the full PDF). I’d love to hear people’s reactions and recommendations, since there’s still plenty of time to edit it. You can also see previous posts (and any future posts, as they come up), here.

[* * *]

I’ve shown in earlier posts, I think, that the law at least sometimes expressly or implicitly recognizes a right to defy. But not always, and not everywhere. Let me speculate on a few more particular circumstances that might lead courts and legislatures to reject such a right (whether or not soundly).

[D.] Whether the Defiant Conduct Is Constitutionally Protected

Some of the examples given above involve people insisting on engaging in behavior that is constitutionally protected against government restriction: the abortion clinic refusing to give in to demands to close; the bookstore refusing to give in to demands to stop selling blasphemous books; the speaker refusing the demands of hecklers; Simone Greenway showing romantic affection to Carrie Randall-Evans (indeed, in Greenway’s own home); perhaps the Kentucky Fried Chicken employee refusing to turn over property to the robber; or perhaps Celia Diaz letting her niece stay with her. Some might argue that these cases offer the most compelling rationale for a right of defiance, but the right shouldn’t extend to cases involving legal but constitutionally unprotected behavior.

Yet I don’t think that’s right. There might not be a constitutional right, for instance, to sell fur or do animal experimentation for medical research. If the democratic process led to such behavior being outlawed, all of us would have to comply with such legal constraints. But it doesn’t follow that the fur store or the medical research facility should have to close—or face legal liability for staying open—when the demands come not from the law but from the lawless. So long as we are doing what we are legally entitled to do, we have an important interest in not having to give in to criminals’ demands, and all of us have an important interest in not creating an additional legal incentive for the criminals to make more such demands.

[E.] Unreasonable Defiance / Foreseeable Harm

Of course, many possible restrictions on the right to defy involve situations where defiance is seen as “unreasonable” and the harm stemming from the defiance is “foreseeable”: Mabel Ganal and Simone Greenway were accused of unreasonably provoking their estranged husbands; Kentucky Fried Chicken was accused of unreasonably failing to comply with the robber’s demands; Daniel McBrayer was accused of unreasonably creating a risk of harm to his abortion clinic’s neighbors. Negligence law generally requires unreasonableness and foreseeability for liability, and so does nuisance law.

The criminal cases—disturbing the peace prosecutions of people whose speech provokes violent hecklers, or the loss of the right of deadly self-defense on the part of people who fail to retreat or comply with demands—might likewise have an implicit “unreasonableness” dimension: For instance, the duty to retreat doesn’t include a duty to retreat when doing so is unsafe. And in all those cases, the possible consequences of refusal to retreat, comply, or shut up are foreseeable.

One could argue that the right of defiance should extend only to reasonable defiance (including cases where the harm is unforeseeable), as determined by a jury. Or one could argue this at least as to defiance of demands that are backed by a concrete threat of highly likely and imminent violence (as in Kentucky Fried Chicken), rather than just a foreseeable threat of possible future retaliation (as in Touchette or in the abortion clinic case). Indeed, one school of thought in torts cases is that many disputes—normative and not just factual—ought to be resolved through case-by-case balancing by juries. And that was an explicit part of the dissent’s argument in Kentucky Fried Chicken v. Superior Court: “the question of whether the restaurant breached [its duty of care] and failed to use due care when its cashier initially refused to comply with the robber’s demands is a question for the jury.”

But the premise of this article is that refusal to comply with criminals’ demands should not be seen as unreasonable, even when it creates or increases a risk of harm (imminent or otherwise). In negligence cost-benefit balancing terms, the costs of taking such a precaution must include the dignitary costs of being forced to subordinate oneself to a criminal’s will. And the law should conclude that, as a matter of law, such costs cannot be legally required, rather than just leaving it to case-by-case jury decisionmaking.

Indeed, tort law often recognizes that certain kinds of decisions about duty should be made as a matter of law by judges, rather than left to jury discretion; to quote the Restatement (Third) of Torts, “In exceptional cases, when an articulated countervailing principle or policy warrants denying or limiting liability in a particular class of cases, a court may decide that the defendant has no duty or that the ordinary duty of reasonable care requires modification.” This rule supports deciding whether certain kinds of behavior should be immunized from tort liability “as a categorical matter under the rubric of duty, and a court’s articulating general social norms of responsibility as the basis for this determination.” I have argued throughout this Article that people generally should not be seen as having “responsibility” to obey criminals.

[F.] Special Relationships Creating a Duty to Protect

Of course, in practice people sometimes do feel a moral or personal obligation to comply with criminals’ demands, even heinous demands. That is particularly likely, I expect, when people are trying to protect their children; one hears stories, for instance, of mothers even accepting being raped in order to shield their daughters. And, at least when something less awful is at stake, we might expect people to sometimes go along with criminal demands to protect someone with whom they have some special relationship, especially a family relationship.

But whatever one might think is right as a matter of moral obligation, or just personal emotional response, I don’t think this extends to a legal obligation. Even a parent, I think, should not be viewed as legally required to comply with criminal demands to protect their child (though I expect that legal pressures would have very little relevance to a parent’s decision in such a situation, and emotional reactions would overwhelmingly predominate). And the same is true for other relationships, whatever other legal significance they might have. Store owners may have duties to reasonably protect their business visitors, for instance by hiring guards or putting up security features. But I think the KFC court (and the others it followed) was right to say that this duty to prevent crime doesn’t extend to a duty to obey criminals.

Likewise for another kind of special-relationship-based duty, the psychiatrists’ duty (recognized in many states) to reasonably protect third parties from foreseeable violent attack by the psychiatrists’ patients. The psychiatrist may have a duty to warn the prospective target about the threat from a patient. The psychiatrist may even have a duty to try to get the patient committed. But the psychiatrist shouldn’t have a duty to obey the patient’s demands; if, for instance, Lawrence Moore (the psychiatrist in Tarasoff) had been told by Prosenjit Poddar (the patient), “I’ll kill Tatiana Tarasoff unless you tell me I’m Jesus”—or “I’ll kill Tatiana Tarasoff unless you renounce Jesus”—that should not create a legal obligation on Moore to give in to that threat.

The one possible exception might be for people specifically hired to be ransom funders, or perhaps guards, who have expressly contracted to go along with such demands. If a ransom insurance company has agreed to pay ransom in the event of a kidnapping, it has given up its right not to pay (unless, of course, there is a law precluding such ransom insurance, on the theory that allowing ransom insurance encourages kidnappings). Likewise, one can imagine a similar deal for security guards or bodyguards, though again that might be limited by public policy (agreements to hand over property, if that’s what it takes to protect the principal, might be enforceable, but agreements to do anything—down to submission to rape or other serious abuse—might not be). But allowing such a contractual obligation, justified by an express promise, shouldn’t lead to imposing such obligations as a matter of tort law or criminal law.

[G.] Defiance as Provocation Mitigating Attacker’s Guilt

Say Craig makes certain kinds of criminal demands of Danielle, such as that she not leave him or else he’ll kill her; she defies those demands; and then he kills her. Some cases would treat Danielle’s defiance as a basis for downgrading Craig’s crime from murder to voluntary manslaughter. Likewise, some cases have treated such supposed “provocation” as a basis for reducing the sentence for a nondeadly physical attack.

The same has at times been done or proposed with regard to offensive political or religious speech, providing a sort of limited immunity to violent hecklers as an analog to a “heckler’s veto.” Following the Supreme Court’s flagburning decisions, there were calls to sharply decrease punishments for beating someone who burns the American flag. Likewise, in State v. Elbayomy, a judge imposed a reduced punishment on someone who physically attacked a “Zombie Mohammed” who was marching in a Halloween parade, on the grounds that the parader’s behavior was blasphemous and therefore provoking.

I’m inclined to think that such downgrading of the punishment should be rejected as a matter of law, and that the victim’s defiance of the attacker’s criminal demands shouldn’t diminish the price that the attacker must pay for making good on the threat (or for attempting to do so). The right to defy criminals’ demands should include the right to equal protection of the law from criminals’ retaliation for such defiance (whether such a right is framed as a constitutional equal protection right or just as a subconstitutional legal principle). Victoria Nourse has articulated this particularly well with regard to the voluntary manslaughter scenario.

The post The Right to Defy Criminal Demands: Possible Limits on the Right to Defy (Part II) appeared first on Reason.com.

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Imposing Virtue by Government Edict Is Impossible


mike-petrucci-c9FQyqIECds-unsplash

During my first trip to Salt Lake City, I wandered from my hotel room in search of a drink, found a modest pub, and went to order a beer or three. “Sir, this is a private club,” the bouncer told me. I headed toward the door feeling dejected and confused. This certainly doesn’t look like an exclusive joint.

At that point, the bouncer started laughing, realizing that I was the latest out-of-towner who was unaware of Utah’s Mormon-inspired booze laws. He could sell me a temporary membership for five bucks, to which I happily obliged. I still have that membership card in a drawer somewhere.

To reduce drinking, Utah banned bars, but allowed an exception for private clubs—so bar owners came up with a workaround that accomplished nothing other than adding a fee on bar hoppers. It was a reminder of Dwight D. Eisenhower’s words: “We have never stopped sin by passing laws; and in the same way, we are not going to take a great moral ideal and achieve it merely by law.”

Utah eliminated that silly private-club requirement in 2009, although states still have vestiges of these so-called “blue laws,” which refer to Puritan-era relics that restrict alcohol sales and certain activities such as shopping on Sundays (to observe the Sabbath). The term likely is “based on an 18th-century usage of the word blue meaning ‘rigidly moral’ in a disparaging sense,” according to Brittanica.

Oddly enough, a new group of post-liberal (in the free-market sense of the word) conservatives is pushing for a restoration of these religious-based laws. Pressed for policy prescriptions in their traditionalist agenda, Harvard Law Professor Adrian Vermeule and the New York Post’s Sohrab Ahmari floated the idea of restoring the sanctity of the Sabbath.

“A campaign for the Sabbath can bring together labor unions, religious conservatives, and small-business owners (that last group historically opposed abolishing blue laws for lack of ability to compete),” Ahmari wrote this month in The American Conservative. Yet Ahmari inadvertently points to one of the major problems with these laws.

Instead of promoting virtue, they become a means by which special interests—such as small businesses and beer distributors—abuse the legislative process to limit competition. For instance, alcohol distributors and unions have united to oppose California legislation that allows distillers and breweries to ship their products directly to consumers. It’s a cynical—not moral—effort.

Likewise, small businesses try to ban Sunday store hours to give them a leg up in competing with big-box stores. Plenty of crazy blue laws still exist, of course, especially in the Bible Belt. States impose myriad limitations on liquor sales, car sales, and other activities on Sundays, most of which are the result of interest group jockeying. These days, such laws will only move more commerce online.

These rules merely annoy the public. If you want to abstain from drinking or observe the Sabbath, then abstain from drinking and observe the Sabbath. California has relatively few such restrictions (although our state has plenty of other asinine restrictions on work and commerce) and other states have been relaxing them over the years.

“Texans can buy beer on Sundays but not diapers,” noted a 1984 article in The New York Times. “A woman in Mississippi cannot pick up a pair of stockings on her way to church. In New Orleans, people can buy anything on Sundays, but they are compelled to go to…the French Quarter to do so.” Why would anyone want a return to those days?

The goal of using government to achieve socially conservative ends is, as conservative writer Thomas Fitzgerald argued, “another bit of modernist utopianism, sure to be as brutal, yet brittle, when confronted with political reality.” Americans simply will find absurd workarounds—just as drinkers had done for decades in Utah. Government will have more reasons to control, fine, and harass us.

These Christian conservatives ought to ponder Jesus’ dealings with the rule-bound Pharisee religious leaders, who were aghast after he healed a man on Sabbath. “Which of you, having a son or an ox that has fallen into a well on a Sabbath day, will not immediately pull him out?” Jesus retorted. He was concerned about our inner selves, not our outward piety.

Even non-conservatives are toying with the idea because of its goal of reducing the burden on workers. “Rest is hard to come by these days,” wrote Joel Mathis in a column arguing that blue laws might help. “Post-religious American capitalism doesn’t leave us much room to just relax.” Yet few people are working seven days a week.

Mandating that businesses close Sunday won’t do anything other than reduce jobs and give the rest of us fewer opportunities to go shopping and live our lives as we choose. Then again, I don’t want the government to make us virtuous. I just want it to leave us alone.

This column was first published in The Orange County Register.

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