British Court Rules Assange Can Appeal US Extradition: “We Won Today”

British Court Rules Assange Can Appeal US Extradition: “We Won Today”

Authored by Jake Johnson via Common Dreams,

A U.K. court ruled Monday that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange can appeal a December decision permitting his extradition to the United States, where the Department of Justice is attempting to prosecute the journalist for publishing classified information that exposed war crimes.

“What happened in court today is precisely what we wanted to happen,” Stella Moris, Assange’s fiancée, said during a press conference outside the Royal Courts in central London following the decision. “Make no mistake, we won today in court.”

Stella Moris, partner of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, speaks outside the High Court in London. AFP via Getty Images

“But let’s not forget that every time we win, as long as this case isn’t dropped, as long as Julian isn’t freed, Julian continues to suffer,” Moris added. “He is suffering profoundly, day after day, week after week, year after year. Julian has to be freed, and we hope that this will soon end.”

Assange has been imprisoned at a high-security London jail since 2019, under conditions that experts and rights groups have denounced as torturous and a violation of international law.

For years, Assange and his legal team have been fighting attempts by the U.S. to extradite him to face charges under the Espionage Act. Because the charges stem from a common journalistic practice—the publication of classified information—advocacy groups have warned that the U.S. prosecution of Assange poses a severe threat to press freedoms worldwide.

“Journalism is not a crime,” British Labour MP Jeremy Corbyn, founder of the Peace and Justice Project, said Monday. “Wikileaks exposed crimes of U.S. empire in Afghanistan, Iraq, and beyond. The perpetrators of these crimes walk free, often still prominent public figures in the U.S., U.K., and elsewhere. They should be held accountable for the lives they destroyed and the futures they stole.”

The court’s decision Monday paved the way for Assange to appeal the U.S. extradition attempt—which began under the Trump administration and has continued under President Joe Biden—before the British Supreme Court. The court must agree to accept the case before the appeal process can move forward.

Robert Mahoney, deputy executive director of the Committee to Protect Journalists, said in a statement Monday that “we are glad that Julian Assange will be allowed to apply to appeal his extradition in the U.K.’s Supreme Court.”

“The prosecution of the WikiLeaks founder in the United States would set a deeply harmful legal precedent that would allow the prosecution of reporters for news gathering activities and must be stopped,” said Mahoney. “We strongly encourage the U.S. Justice Department to halt extradition proceedings and drop all charges against Assange.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/24/2022 – 12:40

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Broad Vaccine Mandates Are a Serious Violation of Civil Liberties


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Washington, D.C., played host to a political rally this weekend, and one you might not have heard much about in the media. If you did hear something, it was probably negative. I speak, of course, about the anti–vaccine mandate rally at the Lincoln Memorial.

Some who attended spread incorrect information about the vaccine, wrongly warning that it was dangerous or had resulted in widespread death. Robert Kennedy Jr., who is perhaps the leading anti-vaccine figure in American political life, spoke at the event. Robert Malone, an immunologist who pioneered mRNA vaccines and recently gained notoriety after appearing on Joe Rogan’s podcast, spoke as well.

Malone is an accomplished man, but he’s wrong to suggest that the COVID-19 vaccines don’t work and cause serious harm. Even today, even with the omicron variant, it remains the case that the overwhelming majority of people who die from COVID-19 are unvaccinated. Moreover, the vaccines are not dangerous—they are certainly not more dangerous than the disease itself.

To the extent that this was a rally against vaccination, it was misguided.

But some of the people who showed up on Sunday were making a narrower point, and one that’s clearly correct: The government should not have the power to force you to make a private medical decision that has little effect on anyone else. Your vaccination status is, by and large, your business. The vaccines are not substantially blocking the spread of COVID-19: We all know countless vaccinated people who’ve caught the disease. This is particularly true of the omicron wave: It’s great to be vaccinated, but the vaccine is not preventing you or your close contacts from contracting COVID-19. The vaccine is a personal health decision. It protects the person who gets it, and thus it’s not really the government’s business.

Yet countless municipalities, including our nation’s capital—the site of this weekend’s protest—are broadly mandating vaccination. In D.C., if you want to enter a restaurant, you have to show not just your vaccine card, but also a photo ID—like a driver’s license—in order to prove that the card is really yours.

Note that D.C.’s COVID-19 mitigation policies have been, at all times, foolish. D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser reimposed a mask mandate to deal with delta, even though the mayor herself had been partying maskless the night before. The district’s vaccine mandate took effect last week, ostensibly to deal with omicron, but guess what? Omicron is largely over in D.C. Cases are plummeting.

We will never stop cases no matter how desperately we mandate vaccines, masks, and everything else. The only thing we can control is deaths, but the government shouldn’t force this choice on people. You shouldn’t have to show identification to participate in social life—to leave your home. Isn’t that something Democrats used to believe—or still pretend to believe? Certainly, in some cases, it is:

That’s an advertisement from the committee to elect Democrats to the House of Representatives. The thrust of the ad is that nefarious, moralizing Republicans are coming between you and your private medical decisions. Is that wrong? Of course. But the Democratic Party, vis-a-vis its leaders at the local level, and its national leader President Joe Biden, is wholly committed to the idea that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, an agency of unelected bureaucrats, gets to interfere in your private medical decisions. You can’t go anywhere without its permission. That’s currently the Democratic Party’s central policy commitment: Anthony Fauci knows best. Democratic leaders will make you provide a vaccine card and ID to participate in social life, civil liberties be damned.

It’s funny, because in other circumstances, this would be the sort of thing that progressive civil liberties organizations opposed. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) has waged war on the concept of voter ID laws—the idea that you should have to provide a photo ID in order to vote.

“Voter ID laws deprive many voters of their right to vote, reduce participation, and stand in direct opposition to our country’s trend of including more Americans in the democratic process,” writes the ACLU. “Many Americans do not have one of the forms of identification states acceptable for voting. These voters are disproportionately low-income, racial and ethnic minorities, the elderly, and people with disabilities.  Such voters more frequently have difficulty obtaining ID, because they cannot afford or cannot obtain the underlying documents that are a prerequisite to obtaining government-issued photo ID card.”

But when it comes to vaccine passports—a roughly equivalent restriction on people’s civil liberties—the ACLU has not denounced them. On the contrary, it wholeheartedly supports them.

“We see no civil liberties problem with requiring COVID-19 vaccines in most circumstances,” writes the ACLU. “In fact, far from compromising civil liberties, vaccine mandates actually further civil liberties.”

If we lived in a world where progressive defenders of civil liberties were actually doing the right thing and fighting back against vaccine mandates, it would be easier to completely ignore and write off Malone and the anti-vaccine cranks who gathered in Washington, D.C., this weekend. But we live in a world where many of the supposed defenders of civil liberties have sided with the state. COVID-19 mitigation policies grow more unreasonable and oppressive—and more disconnected from reality—with each passing day. What is the ACLU doing about it? Nothing.

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The Democrats’ Voting Bill Is Dead, but Electoral Reform Isn’t


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A defeat for Democratic voting rights legislation could lead to meaningful progress on electoral integrity.

On Wednesday, a Senate effort to amend filibuster rules in a way that would allow Democrats to pass voting rights legislation with fewer than 60 votes was defeated, despite President Joe Biden voicing support for that course of action earlier this month. And without the rule change, the voting bill itself is doomed as well, as Republicans stand fully in opposition.

In a speech in Atlanta, Biden seemed to imply that anybody who did not support his party’s bill, the Freedom to Vote Act, was “on the side of” historical segregationists like George Wallace and Bull Connor. He issued a direct warning to lawmakers: “History has never been kind to those who have sided with voter suppression over voters’ rights. And it will be even less kind for those who side with election subversion. So, I ask every elected official in America: How do you want to be remembered?”

Under that argument, a failure to pass the bill would seem to be devastating to the cause of voting rights. But in the wake of the bill’s defeat, there is a new and potentially more promising development.

Lawmakers in both the House and the Senate are considering modifications to the Electoral Count Act, an 1887 law that details when and how Congress counts and certifies the votes cast by presidential electors. The act dictates that the president of the Senate (the U.S. vice president) reads out the votes from each state, which Congress then counts before certifying the winner. While the vice president’s role seems largely ceremonial, with no ability to alter an election’s outcome, the act does not say so explicitly. Former President Donald Trump and his acolytes seized upon this vagueness when they tried to pressure then–Vice President Mike Pence to either decline to certify the results, or else simply pick a different slate of electors in enough swing states to tip the election to Trump.

Now, lawmakers from both parties are considering reforms to the Electoral Count Act in both the Senate and the House. CNN reports that six Republican senators are planning talks on the law “with the aim of clarifying the process for counting electoral votes.” Sen. Joe Manchin (D–W.Va.), a moderate whose opposition helped sink the filibuster reform, told CNN that reforms to the Electoral Count Act could help reduce the type of confusion that ultimately led, in part, to the false hopes that prompted hundreds of Trump supporters to violently storm the Capitol on the day of the election certification vote.

Meanwhile, the Committee on House Administration released a report detailing potential alterations to the act. The report includes suggestions such as a higher threshold for senators or representatives to register objections to vote counts, and giving states more time to adjudicate disputes before certifying their electoral votes. The Cato Institute’s Andy Craig has previously made many of the suggestions that lawmakers featured in their report and has written extensively on Electoral Count Act reform, which he says is “urgently needed to avoid future constitutional crises.”

Despite Democrats’ urgent messaging about the need for voting rights legislation, their proposed bills are unlikely to achieve meaningful reform. They do not attempt to solve the issues that led rioters to try to undermine the results of the 2020 presidential election. The most direct way to confront those issues is to address the actual law that was used to attempt to undermine the transfer of power. Hopefully, Republicans and Democrats can at least agree on that much.

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Broad Vaccine Mandates Are a Serious Violation of Civil Liberties


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Washington, D.C., played host to a political rally this weekend, and one you might not have heard much about in the media. If you did hear something, it was probably negative. I speak, of course, about the anti–vaccine mandate rally at the Lincoln Memorial.

Some who attended spread incorrect information about the vaccine, wrongly warning that it was dangerous or had resulted in widespread death. Robert Kennedy Jr., who is perhaps the leading anti-vaccine figure in American political life, spoke at the event. Robert Malone, an immunologist who pioneered mRNA vaccines and recently gained notoriety after appearing on Joe Rogan’s podcast, spoke as well.

Malone is an accomplished man, but he’s wrong to suggest that the COVID-19 vaccines don’t work and cause serious harm. Even today, even with the omicron variant, it remains the case that the overwhelming majority of people who die from COVID-19 are unvaccinated. Moreover, the vaccines are not dangerous—they are certainly not more dangerous than the disease itself.

To the extent that this was a rally against vaccination, it was misguided.

But some of the people who showed up on Sunday were making a narrower point, and one that’s clearly correct: The government should not have the power to force you to make a private medical decision that has little effect on anyone else. Your vaccination status is, by and large, your business. The vaccines are not substantially blocking the spread of COVID-19: We all know countless vaccinated people who’ve caught the disease. This is particularly true of the omicron wave: It’s great to be vaccinated, but the vaccine is not preventing you or your close contacts from contracting COVID-19. The vaccine is a personal health decision. It protects the person who gets it, and thus it’s not really the government’s business.

Yet countless municipalities, including our nation’s capital—the site of this weekend’s protest—are broadly mandating vaccination. In D.C., if you want to enter a restaurant, you have to show not just your vaccine card, but also a photo ID—like a driver’s license—in order to prove that the card is really yours.

Note that D.C.’s COVID-19 mitigation policies have been, at all times, foolish. D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser reimposed a mask mandate to deal with delta, even though the mayor herself had been partying maskless the night before. The district’s vaccine mandate took effect last week, ostensibly to deal with omicron, but guess what? Omicron is largely over in D.C. Cases are plummeting.

We will never stop cases no matter how desperately we mandate vaccines, masks, and everything else. The only thing we can control is deaths, but the government shouldn’t force this choice on people. You shouldn’t have to show identification to participate in social life—to leave your home. Isn’t that something Democrats used to believe—or still pretend to believe? Certainly, in some cases, it is:

That’s an advertisement from the committee to elect Democrats to the House of Representatives. The thrust of the ad is that nefarious, moralizing Republicans are coming between you and your private medical decisions. Is that wrong? Of course. But the Democratic Party, vis-a-vis its leaders at the local level, and its national leader President Joe Biden, is wholly committed to the idea that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, an agency of unelected bureaucrats, gets to interfere in your private medical decisions. You can’t go anywhere without its permission. That’s currently the Democratic Party’s central policy commitment: Anthony Fauci knows best. Democratic leaders will make you provide a vaccine card and ID to participate in social life, civil liberties be damned.

It’s funny, because in other circumstances, this would be the sort of thing that progressive civil liberties organizations opposed. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) has waged war on the concept of voter ID laws—the idea that you should have to provide a photo ID in order to vote.

“Voter ID laws deprive many voters of their right to vote, reduce participation, and stand in direct opposition to our country’s trend of including more Americans in the democratic process,” writes the ACLU. “Many Americans do not have one of the forms of identification states acceptable for voting. These voters are disproportionately low-income, racial and ethnic minorities, the elderly, and people with disabilities.  Such voters more frequently have difficulty obtaining ID, because they cannot afford or cannot obtain the underlying documents that are a prerequisite to obtaining government-issued photo ID card.”

But when it comes to vaccine passports—a roughly equivalent restriction on people’s civil liberties—the ACLU has not denounced them. On the contrary, it wholeheartedly supports them.

“We see no civil liberties problem with requiring COVID-19 vaccines in most circumstances,” writes the ACLU. “In fact, far from compromising civil liberties, vaccine mandates actually further civil liberties.”

If we lived in a world where progressive defenders of civil liberties were actually doing the right thing and fighting back against vaccine mandates, it would be easier to completely ignore and write off Malone and the anti-vaccine cranks who gathered in Washington, D.C., this weekend. But we live in a world where many of the supposed defenders of civil liberties have sided with the state. COVID-19 mitigation policies grow more unreasonable and oppressive—and more disconnected from reality—with each passing day. What is the ACLU doing about it? Nothing.

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Not Looking Good: Goldman Warns Earnings Guidance Is “Disappointing” With 5 of 6 Companies Lowering Expectations

Not Looking Good: Goldman Warns Earnings Guidance Is “Disappointing” With 5 of 6 Companies Lowering Expectations

Late on Sunday, Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin published a note titled “Anatomy of the S&P 500 sell-off and Nasdaq correction: Valuation compression and the re-pricing of equity risk” (available for professional subs) highlighting how the 8% drop in the S&P500 since Jan 3 (as of mid-Monday, the drop is now 10%, with the S&P officially in correction) and the Nasdaq’s 16% drop – matching the drop in December 2018 when Powell was forced to end the Fed’s tightening, has been driven by both increased concerns about future growth and a sharp rise in the equity risk premium (ERP).

As Kostin notes, the speed and breadth of the S&P 500 index decline has made it particularly challenging for fund managers to navigate. While the Energy sector surged by 12% since the index peaked the ten other sectors all declined. The 11% drop in Information Technology accounted for nearly half the index decline during the past 13 trading sessions.

And with the Nasdaq 100 looking at a bear market at some point this week – with less than 4% to go until it is down 20% from its ATH – Kosting notes that share prices for more than half of the index constituents (55 companies) have dropped by 10% or more during the past two months. The NDX carries high concentration and some of the largest constituents corrected dramatically. For example, NVDA (-29%) and AMZN (-22%) were hit particularly hard during the correction while GOOGL (-12%) and MSFT (-14%) fell less sharply.

Goldman’s market crash post-mortem aside (which Kostin failed to predict in his barrage of bullish notes even as Goldman was selling billions in stocks), what we found most interesting in Goldman’s note is that five out of the 6 companies providing 1Q22 guidance so far this earnings season have lowered expectations, and alongside the broader market rout, the forward P/E multiple for the S&P500 index has fallen by 2 points to 19.6X from 21.5X. But even after the multiple contraction, equity valuations remain high on a historical basis, (~94th percentile vs. the last 40 years).  

Before we look at the guidance, Goldman notes that earnings season has been so far characterized by positive sales and EPS revisions but falling share prices, with Kostin adding that “sharp declines in stock prices can reflect a jump in the cost of equity or reduced growth expectations. S&P 500 aggregate sales and EPS estimate revisions for 2022 have been positive during the past 1-month and 3-month periods. However, recent market rotations and investor conversations indicate concern about the growth outlook.”

With that in mind, here is a look at what even Kostin admits is “Disappointing guidance. Investors are most interested in forward-looking guidance from managements, and recent information on that front has been concerning. Five of the six S&P 500 firms that provided formal 1Q 2022 guidance following 4Q results lowered expectations.”

Drilling into that critical point, the GS strategist notes that following the release of 4Q results, only six companies in the S&P 500 provided formal near-term guidance for 1Q 2022. Unfortunately, five of the six firms guided below consensus for next quarter, including three of the stocks that actually beat expectations in 4Q. Only Micron Technology (MU) “beat-and-raised.”

Here Kostin reminds us that the most notable firm to provide updated guidance was Netflix which “stunned investors by dramatically lowering its expected rate of net subscriber growth in 2022. The shares plummeted by 22% the following day and $50 billion of equity cap was erased on Friday. The stock price has plunged by 33% since the S&P 500 peaked in early January and by 41% since NDX hit its all-time high in November.”

Why are investors obsessed with guidance? Because while cynical investors often quip, “Managements are the last to know” Goldman notes that “executives also have line-of-sight on their supply chains, customer orders, and other operating trends.” Multiple headwinds exist that make providing forward guidance challenging for executives, including labor (costs, recruitment, and retention), public health (the Omicron variant and shifting local government regulations, and travel restrictions), supply chains (cost and space availability on ships, railroads, and trucks), and monetary policy (pace of Fed hikes and the path of long-term interest rates).

And then there is the Fed, whose increasingly hawkish shift has alarmed equity investors. According to Goldman calculations, two months ago, when the NDX traded at a record high, interest rate futures implied two hikes during 2022. Today it stands at four 25 bp hikes (one per quarter) that would leave the funds rate at 1.0%-1.25% by year-end. Although their baseline forecast is also four hikes, Goldman’s US Economists have raised the prospect that the Fed could hike five times (with a hike in May) and perhaps even tighten at every meeting this year starting in March.

Needless to say, elevated core PCE and labor inflation are the proximate causes for the expected tightening. The uncertain path of future inflation explains the range of forecasts around the pace and duration of tightening following liftoff.

And despite the compression in PE multiples, valuation metrics remain sky high: while the forward P/E multiple for the S&P500 index has fallen by 2 points or 9% since the start of the year (from 22x to 20x) in absolute terms, equity valuations remain at near record levels, in the 94th percentile vs. the last 40 years.

One final highlighted observation from Kostin (there is much more in the full report) and it has to do with investor positioning.

Although equity investor length has declined in recent weeks, it still remains elevated versus history. High frequency hedge fund leverage data from Goldman’s Prime Services desk shows that hedge funds have cut net leverage from 86% on December 30th to 80% today. This de-risking has brought net leverage to the lowest level in the past year. However, relative to the last 3 years, net leverage ranks in the 57th percentile. As Kostin warns, “above-average positioning suggests that investors will require a catalyst in the near-term to add length, but few obvious catalysts are evident in the near-term.

One potential catalyst would be a slowdown in inflation, but Goldman economists – who were dead wrong in 2021 on inflation, expecting it to be transitory only to be proven laughably incorrect when even Powell said it is time to retire the word “transitory” – do not expect that will occur until 2Q (of course, once the current market crash translate in inflation terms, expect a major drop in inflationary pressures). That said, and quite obviously, “dovish commentary from the Fed or an extremely strong earnings season could potentially lead investors to increase equity allocations in coming weeks.”

* * *

So how to position in light of all this? Given the prospect of tightening financial conditions, Goldman recommends investors own stocks with ‘quality’ attributes (such as strong balance sheets) at moderate valuations. Meanwhile, economically-sensitive small-cap and value stocks tend to suffer amid tightening financial conditions. However, many strong balance sheet stocks today are fast growing and trade at elevated valuations, explaining why weak balance sheet stocks have outperformed YTD. And with uncertainty around margins, Goldman also recommends investors own stocks with strong pricing power.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/24/2022 – 12:20

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Virginia’s Awful Alcohol Laws Could Finally Get Fixed, Thanks to COVID and Gov. Youngkin


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Perhaps more than any other state, Virginia is the cradle of American history. Four of the first five presidents hailed from Virginia, and its countryside is dotted with famous Founding Father estates, pivotal Civil War battlefields, and Virginia Alcoholic Beverage Control (ABC) Authority liquor stores. These government-run booze stores are a direct descendant of Virginia’s deep prohibition heritage.

After Prohibition, Virginia maintained a powerful temperance mindset, which let government-operated stores have complete control over the sale of distilled liquors. But what may have started as an understandable offshoot of a bygone era is now a woefully antiquated relic. Almost 90 years since the end of Prohibition, Virginia may finally upgrade its alcohol laws for the 21st century.

Virginia is one of 13 states that has government-run retail stores for liquor. Because distilled spirits can only be sold in government stores, every distillery that offers spirits on-site must become an ABC “agency store.” Distilleries are forced to invite ABC into their businesses, which gives the state influence, albeit subtle. Distilleries must honor state-mandated markups on each bottle sold, which erodes the profits of the state’s entrepreneurial craft distillers. The state also layers on additional excise taxes, giving Virginia the third-highest taxes on distilled spirits in America.

The ABC system, which exercises near-universal control over alcohol sales in the state, has proven notoriously resistant to change over the years. Not only does Virginia ABC employ close to 5,000 people, but it pads the state’s general fund with hundreds of millions of dollars.

Few politicians can turn down the double-allure of government-backed jobs and built-in revenue streams, creating decades-long resistance to overhaul the state’s booze business. Some politicians have resorted to invoking the language of the temperance movement, growling about the potential horrors of “saloons” overtaking every street corner.

Before COVID-19, Virginia ABC’s idea of modernizing its system primarily consisted of trying to have a hip Twitter account—an experiment that predictably ended in disaster. But at the onset of the pandemic, Virginians started clamoring for real change. As more and more states began to green light things like to-go cocktails and home delivery from distilleries and breweries, Virginia followed suit via emergency orders.

These temporary authorizations will eventually expire. But between the recently elected Gov. Glenn Youngkin—who has repeatedly emphasized that Virginia is now “open for business“—and a new political makeup in the state legislature, Virginia has the chance to finally update incoherent alcohol laws. And numerous bills are already swirling around Richmond.

An easy win would be to extend the ability for Virginia restaurants and bars to sell to-go and delivery cocktails through 2024. Virginia declined to enshrine to-go cocktails in state law permanently—like many other states have done—because some legislators were timid about ignoring Virginia ABC’s recommendation.

Virginia ABC is also attempting to join the modern-day delivery economy. A few state stores started pilot programs to ship spirits directly to customers, and some Richmond-based stores started offering same-day delivery. The state legislature may have even more good news for the distilling community this week after hearing a bill that would allow all distillers to ship their products directly to customers.

Delegate Nick Freitas filed a bill to privatize the Virginia ABC system entirely. Abolishing Virginia ABC does not have enough political support right now, but as national supply chain issues persist and cause more alcohol shortages in state stores, more groups may come to their senses. Politicians and consumers are starting to question the legitimacy of giving the government a monopoly over the sale of private goods like liquor.

COVID-19 upended alcohol markets across America and ushered in a wave of previously unobtainable changes in the regulation of alcohol. The American Prohibition experiment is not a part of history worth preserving. Nine decades later, Virginia may finally loosen its reins on the sale of alcohol.

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Virginia’s Awful Alcohol Laws Could Finally Get Fixed, Thanks to COVID and Gov. Youngkin


thumbnail

Perhaps more than any other state, Virginia is the cradle of American history. Four of the first five presidents hailed from Virginia, and its countryside is dotted with famous Founding Father estates, pivotal Civil War battlefields, and Virginia Alcoholic Beverage Control (ABC) Authority liquor stores. These government-run booze stores are a direct descendant of Virginia’s deep prohibition heritage.

After Prohibition, Virginia maintained a powerful temperance mindset, which let government-operated stores have complete control over the sale of distilled liquors. But what may have started as an understandable offshoot of a bygone era is now a woefully antiquated relic. Almost 90 years since the end of Prohibition, Virginia may finally upgrade its alcohol laws for the 21st century.

Virginia is one of 13 states that has government-run retail stores for liquor. Because distilled spirits can only be sold in government stores, every distillery that offers spirits on-site must become an ABC “agency store.” Distilleries are forced to invite ABC into their businesses, which gives the state influence, albeit subtle. Distilleries must honor state-mandated markups on each bottle sold, which erodes the profits of the state’s entrepreneurial craft distillers. The state also layers on additional excise taxes, giving Virginia the third-highest taxes on distilled spirits in America.

The ABC system, which exercises near-universal control over alcohol sales in the state, has proven notoriously resistant to change over the years. Not only does Virginia ABC employ close to 5,000 people, but it pads the state’s general fund with hundreds of millions of dollars.

Few politicians can turn down the double-allure of government-backed jobs and built-in revenue streams, creating decades-long resistance to overhaul the state’s booze business. Some politicians have resorted to invoking the language of the temperance movement, growling about the potential horrors of “saloons” overtaking every street corner.

Before COVID-19, Virginia ABC’s idea of modernizing its system primarily consisted of trying to have a hip Twitter account—an experiment that predictably ended in disaster. But at the onset of the pandemic, Virginians started clamoring for real change. As more and more states began to green light things like to-go cocktails and home delivery from distilleries and breweries, Virginia followed suit via emergency orders.

These temporary authorizations will eventually expire. But between the recently elected Gov. Glenn Youngkin—who has repeatedly emphasized that Virginia is now “open for business“—and a new political makeup in the state legislature, Virginia has the chance to finally update incoherent alcohol laws. And numerous bills are already swirling around Richmond.

An easy win would be to extend the ability for Virginia restaurants and bars to sell to-go and delivery cocktails through 2024. Virginia declined to enshrine to-go cocktails in state law permanently—like many other states have done—because some legislators were timid about ignoring Virginia ABC’s recommendation.

Virginia ABC is also attempting to join the modern-day delivery economy. A few state stores started pilot programs to ship spirits directly to customers, and some Richmond-based stores started offering same-day delivery. The state legislature may have even more good news for the distilling community this week after hearing a bill that would allow all distillers to ship their products directly to customers.

Delegate Nick Freitas filed a bill to privatize the Virginia ABC system entirely. Abolishing Virginia ABC does not have enough political support right now, but as national supply chain issues persist and cause more alcohol shortages in state stores, more groups may come to their senses. Politicians and consumers are starting to question the legitimacy of giving the government a monopoly over the sale of private goods like liquor.

COVID-19 upended alcohol markets across America and ushered in a wave of previously unobtainable changes in the regulation of alcohol. The American Prohibition experiment is not a part of history worth preserving. Nine decades later, Virginia may finally loosen its reins on the sale of alcohol.

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Russia Planning “Lightning War” To Take Out Ukraine’s Capital: UK’s Johnson In Dramatic Claim

Russia Planning “Lightning War” To Take Out Ukraine’s Capital: UK’s Johnson In Dramatic Claim

As we detailed earlier, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell during Monday statements to the press appeared to openly mock the UK and US for their dramatic announcements of embassy personnel evacuations due to threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. He said there’s no need to “dramatize” the situation given there’s high hopes that ongoing diplomacy will prevail. Moscow too has continued to condemn what it called “disinformation hysteria” prevailing in the West, which is fueling the crisis further.

But it seems London is content to hype things further, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday citing “gloomy” intelligence from UK intel officials warning that Russia is planning a “lightning war” to take out Ukraine’s capital of Kiev. Johnson said in a message directed at Russia that an offensive would be a “disastrous step” and “bloody business”

Getty Images

While confirming that some British diplomatic staff have begun to exit the embassy in Kiev and depart of the country, Johnson affirmed “We do think it prudent to make some changes now.”

That’s when he said in dramatic fashion

“The intelligence is very clear that there are 60 Russian battle groups on the borders of Ukraine, the plan for a lightning war that could take out Kyiv is one that everybody can see.”

“We need to make it very clear to the Kremlin, to Russia, that that would be a disastrous step.”

He added during the comments that “from a Russian perspective, (it) is going to be a painful, violent and bloody business.” He concluded with: “I think it’s very important that people in Russia understand that this could be a new Chechnya.”

More than just issuing jingoist rhetoric, threats, and claims, the UK has over the past week been flying military plane-loads of weaponry into Kiev, something Russia has condemned as a highly dangerous escalation. This is mostly believed to be anti-take and anti-armor systems, missiles, and munitions.

Over the weekend the Kremlin accused Britain of unnecessarily stoking tensions even as London remained on the sidelines of the direct diplomacy currently taking place, which has involved talks between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian FM Sergey Lavrov in Geneva. Further Normandy format talks will be held in Paris this week, involving the Russians, Ukrainians, French, and Germans. According to the news wires, Biden will also hold a call with European leaders today:

BIDEN TO HOLD VIDEO CALL W/EUROPEAN LEADERS ON UKRAINE TODAY  

The New York Times had observed over the weekend that the UK has pursued a much “more muscular” stance on Russia in recent days. “Britain seized the world’s attention on Saturday by accusing President Vladimir Putin of plotting to install a pro-Russian leader in Ukraine, a dramatic late-night announcement that instantly thrust it on to the front lines of the most dangerous security crisis in Europe in decades,” the Times wrote. 

Russia has of course, denied both of these latest bombshell accusations, which included the following: “We have information that indicates the Russian Government is looking to install a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv as it considers whether to invade and occupy Ukraine,” the UK statement published Saturday began. Interestingly, EU countries appear to be moving away from this type of charged rhetoric, also with NATO showing it’s not ready to present a unified position of “military options” on the table, given especially Germany has lately broken with its Western allies on the question of arming Ukraine.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/24/2022 – 12:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3fQu0Mj Tyler Durden

Peter Schiff: Has Fed Talk Pricked The Mother Of All Bubbles?

Peter Schiff: Has Fed Talk Pricked The Mother Of All Bubbles?

Via SchiffGold.com,

It appears talk of looser monetary policy has pricked the bubble. Peter Schiff talked about it in a recent podcast.

We’ve seen a significant rotation out of the overpriced, high-risk momentum stocks that enjoyed the benefit of the bubble. They are now collapsing – not because the Fed has actually tightened monetary policy, but just because it talked about it.

That’s all it took to prick the mother of all bubbles. But as the air is coming out, that air is flowing into the ‘value’ sector of the global markets, which have been overlooked for the entirety of the move up as people were using those stocks as a source of funds, selling value dividend-paying stocks to free up the capital in order to invest in the momentum stocks.”

Peloton’s announcement that it will stop production of its bikes was one of the catalysts for last week’s sell-off.

I think that caused people to worry. Hey, look what’s happening to Peloton. This could happen to other stocks. Demand is not what we thought, and this could apply to a lot of companies, not just Peloton. So, I think other stocks were sold in sympathy.”

Peloton rallied a bit on Friday when the company’s president did some damage control. But that didn’t help the rest of the market. The Dow was down 450 points and the NASDAQ plunged 385 points (2.7%). Friday’s carnage was sparked by Netflix’s 4th quarter report revealing weakening subscriber additions. Netflix stock lost about 20%.

Looking at some of the yearly numbers, the Dow is down 5.7% on the year and 7.3% from its peak. The S&P500 is down 7.7% on the year and 8.7% from the high. The NASDAQ is down 11.6 year-to-date and 14% from its peak. That means the NASDAQ is in correction territory. The Russell 2000 is doing even worse. It’s down 11.5% so far this year and 19.2% from its previous high.

Peter said the dip in the Russell 2000 isn’t because of declining tech stocks. It’s more a reflection of the real US economy.

This really tells the story of what’s going on, and we are almost in bear market territory.”

Then we have the Ark Innovation Fund. It reflects these momentum tech stocks. It was down 5.7% on Friday alone. It plunged 10.9% on the week. Year-to-date, Ark is down 24.4%. And from the high — it’s down 55.2%.

Some of the “stay-at-home” stocks are also getting clobbered. Zoom video is down 65% from its top. DocuSign is down 63%. Teladoc is down 77%.

Peter noted that this isn’t a global selloff. This isn’t like 2008 when everything tanked along with the US stock market and the dollar went through the roof. In fact, the dollar was down slightly on Friday, and it’s also down a bit on the year. Investors certainly aren’t taking refuge in the dollar at this point.

What’s more significant is it’s not up.”

Gold and silver both finished with gains on the week.

There is some tremendous underlying strength in that sector that I think is going to manifest itself in a much bigger way in the weeks and months ahead.”

And Peter said it’s not too late to get in on this rotation.

This creates a dilemma for the Fed. It is about to embark on a monetary tightening campaign even as the economy and the markets are rolling over. That’s why the Fed has telegraphed this incremental tightening even though a more aggressive approach is warranted with 7% inflation. It doesn’t want to spook the markets. But they’ve already caused a selloff in the market simply by talking about raising rates. The same dynamic happened in 2018, but the Fed was actually able to raise rates a few times before the market broke.

But at this point, the bubble is now so big that the market breaks even before you raise rates. The market breaks just on the talk that in the future, the Fed may raise rates, which means they may never get around to doing it. Because, what’s going to happen in March, when everybody expects the Fed to raise rates if we’re in a bear market in stocks? If the economy is rolling over? Will the Fed raise rates? I doubt it. And in fact, what the Fed will say is they will claim that the weakness in the economy, the reverse wealth effect from falling stocks, the increase in unemployment, that will take care of the inflation problem.”

Well, they’re wrong.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/24/2022 – 11:42

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3nSmfcW Tyler Durden

D.C.’s Anti-Mandate Rally Devolves Into an Anti-Vaccine Rally


reason-dcrally

WASHINGTON, D.C.—Thousands of demonstrators gathered on the National Mall for a “Defeat the Mandates” rally this past Sunday to make their case against both private and public vaccination requirements—though that case more often than not rested on the alleged dangers and ineffectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines themselves.

Through speeches and songs, a diverse roster of musicians, doctors, and professional anti-vaccine activists argued that the government, abetted by the media and medical establishment, has been waging a war on alternative COVID-19 treatments in order to boost the profits of Big Pharma. The victims have been freedom of religion, free expression, and liberty generally, they argue.

“Mandates and freedom don’t mix,” said J.P. Sears, a YouTuber and comedian who emceed the rally, from a podium on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial. “[They say] mandates are in place so freedom comes back. I don’t think we’re dumb enough to believe that.”

His words, amplified by batteries of speakers and displayed on massive Jumbotron screens, easily resonated with the roughly 10,000 people assembled in the January cold, many of whom had traveled long distances to be there.

Organizers billed their event as one that would unify people regardless of their party affiliation, race, religion, or vaccination status. The rally nevertheless attracted an overwhelmingly right-wing crowd.

One could hardly swing an unvaccinated cat without hitting a “let’s go Brandon” sign or a “Trump 2024” flag. Chants of “fuck Joe Biden” and “lock him up” (typically sparked by onstage mentions of Bill Gates or White House COVID-19 adviser Anthony Fauci) regularly broke out.

There was still a lot of diversity on display. Demonstrators were predominately, but hardly exclusively, white. There were far more families with children in attendance than there were masked men in Proud Boys shirts. Christian-themed signs warning of the government’s war on religion were complemented by a few seemingly Eastern-inspired placards about following your inner instincts when it comes to vaccination.

The abiding concern from people in the crowd wasn’t so much partisanship as skepticism of the vaccines themselves.

“It’s not a vaccine. It’s genetic modification. There’s no long-term studies. To do this to our kids is just wrong,” one man from Connecticut told Reason.

“I’ve done my research. I research anything that I put into my body, even though I was just trying to sell you weed,” said another man who’d traveled from Philadelphia (and who started our conversation by offering me pre-rolled joints for $10 a pop). “I believe what’s going on is medical tyranny. I believe in early treatment. Even today, there’s treatments that are being effective that aren’t being delivered.”

These views got generous support from the official speakers at the event.

The first hour of remarks was delivered by a series of heterodox physicians who generally argued that the COVID-19 vaccines were far more dangerous and far less effective than various preexisting drugs that could be repurposed for treating the disease (whether that was ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, or vitamin D).

The most prominent speaker of this group is Robert Malone, a doctor who authored some of the earliest research on mRNA vaccines. Malone has since become a prominent skeptic of the technology—which was used to develop the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.

“Regarding the genetic COVID vaccines, the science is settled. They’re not working. They’re not completely safe,” said Malone to rallygoers. “These genetic vaccines can damage your children.”

(Read Reason‘s Ron Bailey on the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines at keeping people out of the hospital and/or the morgue.)

Mentions of the dangers of the vaccines were contrasted with discussions of the coercion being employed to enforce them on the public. That in turn led to some cringe, and occasionally tasteless, historical parallels.

More than a few speakers compared Sunday’s rally to the famous 1963 civil rights rally at the Lincoln Memorial where Martin Luther King Jr. delivered his “I Have a Dream” speech.

Keynote speaker Robert F. Kennedy Jr. rounded out his remarks about the dangers of the COVID-19 vaccines and the technological surveillance being used to push them on people with a now-viral reference to Nazi Germany.

“Even in Hitler’s Germany, you could cross the Alps to Switzerland, you could hide in the attic like Anne Frank,” he said, which he contrasted to today, when the installation of 5G internet will be used to “harvest our data and control our behavior.”

These comparisons were echoed on signs and chants from many in attendance, which described vaccines as “Tuskegee 2.0” and “Nuremberg 2.0.”

Some of Sunday’s attendees were more measured in their criticisms of the various vaccine mandates being put in place. That includes one D.C. resident who was wearing a shirt with Austrian economist Murray Rothbard on it. He told me that while he was vaccinated, he still viewed mandates as worrisome government overreach.

“I think it’s ridiculous. I mean, I have friends who are not fully vaccinated. It does appear to be a stratified, two-tiered society,” he said of D.C.’s own requirement that people visiting most indoor venues, including bars, restaurants, cafes, and gyms, show proof of vaccination. “I’m not going to call it segregation. I don’t think that’s a reasonable thing to say, but it is an objectively caste-based system.”

This view didn’t get much of an airing among the speakers at the rally. That is probably to demonstrators’ detriment.

All the radicalism and kookiness on display at Sunday’s rally served mostly to obscure the fact that the vast majority of the country has not adopted vaccine passport systems. Federal courts, meanwhile, have been busy ruling against most of the vaccine mandates being issued by the White House.

That’s probably not because a majority of Americans, or the majority of U.S. Supreme Court justices, have been playing Malone’s Joe Rogan appearance on repeat.

Rather, it would seem that most of the country has settled on the idea that vaccines are a useful (and maybe even vital) personal protection against COVID-19, but that a government requirement that people show their vaccine card to grab a beer or a cup of coffee is government overreach.

That’s an attitude that might even resonate with many residents of large, liberal cities where vaccine passport systems have been implemented. Here in D.C., about a quarter of residents 12 and older are not fully vaccinated, and will therefore be unable to sit down in a restaurant or go to the gym come February 15 thanks to Mayor Muriel Bowser’s vaccine mandate. (Currently, you only need to show proof of one shot to be in compliance with Bowser’s order.)

So, Kennedy has a point when he says that under these passport systems “every right you have is transformed into a privilege contingent on arbitrary government dictates.” Malone, likewise, isn’t wrong when he notes that COVID-19 vaccines do come with some risks, and that “if there is risk, there must be choice.” Speeches from people who had suffered severe adverse reactions to vaccines helped underscore this idea.

Yet these kernels of reason are buried by broadsides against the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines generally and comparisons to Nazi Germany.

It also obscures the reality of these vaccine passport systems as ineffective security theater that many businesses are half-heartedly complying with at best, at least here in D.C.

For instance, after leaving Sunday’s rally, I ducked into a Starbucks to charge my phone. As I sat down at a table to drink my coffee, I had a staff member approach me and ask to see my proof of vaccination.

When I explained that it was on my dead phone, she shrugged and walked away. Someone more committed to following D.C.’s vaccine mandate should have asked me to leave, but she obviously didn’t think it was worth the effort.

Despite this less-than-perfect enforcement, new COVID-19 cases reported in D.C.—which were already falling prior to the city’s mandate going into effect—continue to collapse. The brief uptick in COVID-19 deaths in the District is also subsiding.

Reasonable people could look at this reality and conclude that vaccine mandates are a restriction on people’s liberty that comes with little benefit to public health, and thus should be abandoned. You don’t need to worry about the totalitarian potential of 5G internet to believe that.

Speakers at Sunday’s rally often gave the impression that you do.

The post D.C.'s Anti-Mandate Rally Devolves Into an Anti-Vaccine Rally appeared first on Reason.com.

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