D.C.’s Anti-Mandate Rally Devolves Into an Anti-Vaccine Rally


reason-dcrally

WASHINGTON, D.C.—Thousands of demonstrators gathered on the National Mall for a “Defeat the Mandates” rally this past Sunday to make their case against both private and public vaccination requirements—though that case more often than not rested on the alleged dangers and ineffectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines themselves.

Through speeches and songs, a diverse roster of musicians, doctors, and professional anti-vaccine activists argued that the government, abetted by the media and medical establishment, has been waging a war on alternative COVID-19 treatments in order to boost the profits of Big Pharma. The victims have been freedom of religion, free expression, and liberty generally, they argue.

“Mandates and freedom don’t mix,” said J.P. Sears, a YouTuber and comedian who emceed the rally, from a podium on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial. “[They say] mandates are in place so freedom comes back. I don’t think we’re dumb enough to believe that.”

His words, amplified by batteries of speakers and displayed on massive Jumbotron screens, easily resonated with the roughly 10,000 people assembled in the January cold, many of whom had traveled long distances to be there.

Organizers billed their event as one that would unify people regardless of their party affiliation, race, religion, or vaccination status. The rally nevertheless attracted an overwhelmingly right-wing crowd.

One could hardly swing an unvaccinated cat without hitting a “let’s go Brandon” sign or a “Trump 2024” flag. Chants of “fuck Joe Biden” and “lock him up” (typically sparked by onstage mentions of Bill Gates or White House COVID-19 adviser Anthony Fauci) regularly broke out.

There was still a lot of diversity on display. Demonstrators were predominately, but hardly exclusively, white. There were far more families with children in attendance than there were masked men in Proud Boys shirts. Christian-themed signs warning of the government’s war on religion were complemented by a few seemingly Eastern-inspired placards about following your inner instincts when it comes to vaccination.

The abiding concern from people in the crowd wasn’t so much partisanship as skepticism of the vaccines themselves.

“It’s not a vaccine. It’s genetic modification. There’s no long-term studies. To do this to our kids is just wrong,” one man from Connecticut told Reason.

“I’ve done my research. I research anything that I put into my body, even though I was just trying to sell you weed,” said another man who’d traveled from Philadelphia (and who started our conversation by offering me pre-rolled joints for $10 a pop). “I believe what’s going on is medical tyranny. I believe in early treatment. Even today, there’s treatments that are being effective that aren’t being delivered.”

These views got generous support from the official speakers at the event.

The first hour of remarks was delivered by a series of heterodox physicians who generally argued that the COVID-19 vaccines were far more dangerous and far less effective than various preexisting drugs that could be repurposed for treating the disease (whether that was ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, or vitamin D).

The most prominent speaker of this group is Robert Malone, a doctor who authored some of the earliest research on mRNA vaccines. Malone has since become a prominent skeptic of the technology—which was used to develop the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.

“Regarding the genetic COVID vaccines, the science is settled. They’re not working. They’re not completely safe,” said Malone to rallygoers. “These genetic vaccines can damage your children.”

(Read Reason‘s Ron Bailey on the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines at keeping people out of the hospital and/or the morgue.)

Mentions of the dangers of the vaccines were contrasted with discussions of the coercion being employed to enforce them on the public. That in turn led to some cringe, and occasionally tasteless, historical parallels.

More than a few speakers compared Sunday’s rally to the famous 1963 civil rights rally at the Lincoln Memorial where Martin Luther King Jr. delivered his “I Have a Dream” speech.

Keynote speaker Robert F. Kennedy Jr. rounded out his remarks about the dangers of the COVID-19 vaccines and the technological surveillance being used to push them on people with a now-viral reference to Nazi Germany.

“Even in Hitler’s Germany, you could cross the Alps to Switzerland, you could hide in the attic like Anne Frank,” he said, which he contrasted to today, when the installation of 5G internet will be used to “harvest our data and control our behavior.”

These comparisons were echoed on signs and chants from many in attendance, which described vaccines as “Tuskegee 2.0” and “Nuremberg 2.0.”

Some of Sunday’s attendees were more measured in their criticisms of the various vaccine mandates being put in place. That includes one D.C. resident who was wearing a shirt with Austrian economist Murray Rothbard on it. He told me that while he was vaccinated, he still viewed mandates as worrisome government overreach.

“I think it’s ridiculous. I mean, I have friends who are not fully vaccinated. It does appear to be a stratified, two-tiered society,” he said of D.C.’s own requirement that people visiting most indoor venues, including bars, restaurants, cafes, and gyms, show proof of vaccination. “I’m not going to call it segregation. I don’t think that’s a reasonable thing to say, but it is an objectively caste-based system.”

This view didn’t get much of an airing among the speakers at the rally. That is probably to demonstrators’ detriment.

All the radicalism and kookiness on display at Sunday’s rally served mostly to obscure the fact that the vast majority of the country has not adopted vaccine passport systems. Federal courts, meanwhile, have been busy ruling against most of the vaccine mandates being issued by the White House.

That’s probably not because a majority of Americans, or the majority of U.S. Supreme Court justices, have been playing Malone’s Joe Rogan appearance on repeat.

Rather, it would seem that most of the country has settled on the idea that vaccines are a useful (and maybe even vital) personal protection against COVID-19, but that a government requirement that people show their vaccine card to grab a beer or a cup of coffee is government overreach.

That’s an attitude that might even resonate with many residents of large, liberal cities where vaccine passport systems have been implemented. Here in D.C., about a quarter of residents 12 and older are not fully vaccinated, and will therefore be unable to sit down in a restaurant or go to the gym come February 15 thanks to Mayor Muriel Bowser’s vaccine mandate. (Currently, you only need to show proof of one shot to be in compliance with Bowser’s order.)

So, Kennedy has a point when he says that under these passport systems “every right you have is transformed into a privilege contingent on arbitrary government dictates.” Malone, likewise, isn’t wrong when he notes that COVID-19 vaccines do come with some risks, and that “if there is risk, there must be choice.” Speeches from people who had suffered severe adverse reactions to vaccines helped underscore this idea.

Yet these kernels of reason are buried by broadsides against the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines generally and comparisons to Nazi Germany.

It also obscures the reality of these vaccine passport systems as ineffective security theater that many businesses are half-heartedly complying with at best, at least here in D.C.

For instance, after leaving Sunday’s rally, I ducked into a Starbucks to charge my phone. As I sat down at a table to drink my coffee, I had a staff member approach me and ask to see my proof of vaccination.

When I explained that it was on my dead phone, she shrugged and walked away. Someone more committed to following D.C.’s vaccine mandate should have asked me to leave, but she obviously didn’t think it was worth the effort.

Despite this less-than-perfect enforcement, new COVID-19 cases reported in D.C.—which were already falling prior to the city’s mandate going into effect—continue to collapse. The brief uptick in COVID-19 deaths in the District is also subsiding.

Reasonable people could look at this reality and conclude that vaccine mandates are a restriction on people’s liberty that comes with little benefit to public health, and thus should be abandoned. You don’t need to worry about the totalitarian potential of 5G internet to believe that.

Speakers at Sunday’s rally often gave the impression that you do.

The post D.C.'s Anti-Mandate Rally Devolves Into an Anti-Vaccine Rally appeared first on Reason.com.

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“The Market Is Starting To Think Recession”

“The Market Is Starting To Think Recession”

For the past few weeks we have been casually tossing around an apocryphal “modest proposal” – namely that the Fed is either hiking into a stagflation, which will have catastrophic consequences for markets, or worse – it is hiking with hopes of creating a recession. While seemingly ludicrous, this would make sense in light of concessions from bank that US demand remains red hot and is driving inflation higher, and only a sharp slowdown in the US economy could help reset the economy ahead of the midterms.

It now appears that at least one bank is starting to side with this view. Looking at the rout in the Russell 2000 index, which fell at least 1.5% every day last week and today tumbled into an official bear market…

… Jefferies strategists believe this means that a recession is now coming.

Echoing what we said over the weekend in “Here Comes The Pivot: JPM Sees Sharp Slowdown In US Economy” Jefferies notes that while economic data from manufacturing to gross domestic product, the shape of the yield curve and high-yield bond spreads are all far from screaming danger, the scope of the rout in the Russell 2000 Index that depends on an accelerating economy offers a glimpse into investor psychology that’s torn between the lingering threat of the omicron Covid variant, the specter of a faster-than-expected rate hike and signs domestic growth is peaking.

As a reminder, this is what we said on Saturday:

For much of the past month we have been warning that as the broader investing public has been fascinated by the mounting speculation that the Fed will hike 4 times (or even “six or seven” times, thank you Jamie Dimon) and commence shrinking its balance sheet, the US economy had quietly hit a major air pocket  and – whether due to Omicron or because the vast majority of US consumers are once again tapped out (see more below) – US GDP growth is now rapidly collapsing and may turn negative as soon as this or next quarter as the US economy contracts for the first time since the covid shutdowns in Q1/Q2 2020.

Throw in the lack of a new Biden stimulus (BBB is dead as a doornail, courtesy of Manchin), and soaring gas prices (Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America all see Brent hitting triple digits in the near term, while a Russia-Ukraine war would send oil to $150 and crash the global economy), and we are willing to go on the record that a recession before the November midterms is virtually assured.

And while we didn’t say explicitly state that this was the Fed’s ulterior motive, Jefferies has actually gone there.

“We think the market is now thinking the R word. Why else would the Russell 2000 be down as much as it has been?” said Steven DeSanctis, a strategist at Jefferies. “Investors see an aggressive Fed pushing the U.S. economy into a big slowdown or even a recession over the next year.”

And if one believes that the small-cap tracking Russell is indicative of the economy’s prospects, this is hardly a shock.

The bear market plunge in the Russell 2000, darling of the market for the first half of 2021 as the economy boomed, has pushed it to a one-year low and put it on track for its worst January in history. According to Bloomberg, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, the largest exchange-traded fund tracking the index, saw the biggest outflow since April last month and is on pace for a $1.4 billion withdrawal in January, with six more sessions to go.

As Bloomberg adds, small-cap investors’ concern is warranted, as the performance of the Russell 2000 — whose constituents rely heavily on borrowing — tends to be poor immediately after the Fed hikes interest rate for the first time in the cycle. Long-term bulls may find solace in the fact that a year later, the group usually gets all of the losses back and then some more, advancing 12% on average after the first rate hike, data compiled by Jefferies show.

However, that would require the Fed to concede yet another policy error, and to make a dovish relent. While that has yet to be seen in the US, and everyone will be closely following what Powell will say on Wednesday, this reversal appears to already be taking place in Europe:

  • *BETS ON 10BPS ECB HIKE PUSHED BACK TO DECEMBER FROM OCTOBER

To those who read BofA’s note from Friday, the US slump into a recession will not be a surprise. As a reminder, the bank’s CIO Michael Hartnett wrote that   “End of Pandemic = US Consumer Recession” (more here) noting that “retail sales 22% above pre-COVID levels…

…payrolls up 18mn from lows, inflation annualizing 9%, real earnings falling a recessionary 2.4%, stimulus payments to US households evaporating from $2.8tn in 21 to $660bn in 2022, with no buffer from excess US savings (savings rate = 6.9%, lower than 7.7% in 2019 & and the rich hoard the savings), and record $40bn MoM jump in borrowing in Nov’21

… “shows US consumer now starting to feel the pinch.”

The silver lining is that alongside the realization that an exit from covid means the US is entering a consumer recession, comes Hartnett’s admission that any Fed hiking cycle will be short (it not sweet) and will be followed by easing as soon as 2023!  Indeed, according to Hartnett, while the broader economy certainly needs more hikes to contain inflation, it will take far fewer rate hikes to crash markets, because “when stocks, credit & housing markets have been conditioned for indefinite continuation of “Lowest Rates in 5000 Years” might only take a couple of rate hikes to cause an event (own volatility)”.

Of course, there is always the risk that Joe Biden, who clearly instructed Powell to spook markets until it sees the whites in the bulls’ eyhes, is playing 10-D chess, and is willing to add a market crash and recession to the stagflationary inferno currently gripping the US economy. Whether that is the case, we will find out on Wednesday when Powell may or may not validate speculation that the Fed will hike not just four times in 2022 but at every Fed rate hike. If that is the case, then all bets are off.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/24/2022 – 11:20

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Watch: Fauci Declares It “Entirely Conceivable” That A Fourth Booster Vaccine Will Be Needed

Watch: Fauci Declares It “Entirely Conceivable” That A Fourth Booster Vaccine Will Be Needed

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Appearing on ABC’s This Week Sunday, Anthony Fauci declared that it is “entirely conceivable” that a fourth booster vaccine will soon be needed by all Americans who wish to be considered ‘fully vaccinated’.

“We may need to boost again. That’s entirely conceivable,” Faiuci said, adding “Before we make that decision about yet again another boost, we want to determine clearly what the durability of protection is of that regular boost.”

Watch:

Fauci’s comments come hours after CDC head Rochelle Walensky announced an update to the definition of ‘fully vaccinated’.

“What we are really working to do is pivot the language to make sure that everybody is as up to date with their Covid-19 vaccines and they personally could be based on when they got their last vaccine,” Walensky said Friday.

She added “So importantly right now, we are pivoting our language, we really want to make sure people are up to date. That means if you recently got your second dose, you are not eligible for a booster, you’re up to date. If you are eligible for a booster and you haven’t gotten it, YOU’RE NOT UP TO DATE and you need to get your booster in order to be up to date.”

Watch:

According to an Economist/YouGov survey released last week, almost one-third of Americans (31 percent) say they have not received a COVID vaccination, with 64 percent of those people saying they do not plan on getting any of the shots, and just 20 percent noting they “might” get one in the future.

Israel has instituted a fourth booster shot, and has just become the number one country in the world for new coronavirus infections per capita.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/24/2022 – 11:00

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EU Foreign Policy Chief Suggests US & UK Are ‘Dramatizing’ Ukraine Situation

EU Foreign Policy Chief Suggests US & UK Are ‘Dramatizing’ Ukraine Situation

Amid what appears to be the beginnings of a NATO military build-up in Eastern Europe in “response” to Russia’s own troop placements near the Russia-Ukraine border, Moscow is continuing to urge the West to halt its “hysteria” – which itself is fueling the crisis. 

It responded to NATO’s fresh albeit very limited deployments of jets and ships Monday with the following: “As for specific actions, we see statements by the North Atlantic Alliance about reinforcement, pulling forces and resources to the eastern flank. All this leads to the fact that tensions are growing,” according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

“This is not happening because of what we, Russia, are doing. This is all happening because of what NATO and the U.S. are doing and due to the information they are spreading.” Peskov denounced what he dubbed the “information hysteria” emanating from the US and West.

Josep Borrell visits a checkpoint in the settlement of Stanytsia Luhanska in Luhansk Region, Ukraine early this month. Reuters

And as part of this general atmosphere of hype and build-up, both the US and UK embassies have begun drawing down some of their non-essential staff and diplomats’ family members from Ukraine. “Officials say there have been no specific threats to British diplomats, but about half of the staff working in Kyiv will return to the UK,” BBC noted of the move. This after the US claimed starting last week that a Russian invasion could come “at any time”.

Israel has also entered high level discussions over a possible airlift of Jews from the country, citing the possibility of a Russian invasion, according to Haaretz on Monday:

With a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine looming, a briefing held Sunday by top officials in the Israeli government and Jewish organizations discussed the level of threat to Jewish communities in Ukraine and the possibility that Israel will facilitate an evacuation program.

But interestingly, so far it appears the EU at this point actually agrees with Russia concerning the overblown and unnecessary ‘hysteria’ surrounding the Ukraine situation. 

According to AFP/Reuters reporting, Europe’s top diplomat Josep Borrell said Monday there’s not need to “dramatize” the situation while confirming that EU diplomats will not follow the US and UK in drawing down their presence in Ukraine

The EU is not following the US in withdrawing its diplomats’ families from Ukraine, top European diplomat Josep Borrell said on Monday (24 January), adding that there was no need to “dramatize” the situation while talks with Russia continue.

“We are not going to do the same thing because we don’t know any specific reasons,” Borrell said as he arrived for a meeting of EU foreign ministers which will include videolink participation by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

“I don’t think we had to dramatize as far as the negotiations are going on — and they are going on.”

Borell urged that diplomacy be given a chance, as the US and Russia – as well as NATO – continue to directly engage over the crisis in ongoing direct talks.

Below is Borell on Monday suggesting that some Western countries and officials are overly dramatizing the situation…

Crucially, Normandy format talks are set to kick off in Paris on Tuesday and Wednesday, which has been pushed by Germany who has largely stayed neutral as Western allies escalate their response, where German, Russian, Ukrainian and French officials will tackle the Ukraine crisis.

Reuters had earlier reported that “Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to Ukraine’s chief negotiator Andriy Yermak, confirmed that a meeting in Paris was planned but told Reuters a preliminary date had been set for Jan. 26.” The Kremlin had over the weekend stated the sides “agreed on further contacts, including the participation of the Ukrainian leadership so as to end [the conflict in eastern Ukraine] as soon as possible.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/24/2022 – 10:40

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Rabo: For Much Of History, War Used To Be The Mechanism For Giving Stupidity The Boot

Rabo: For Much Of History, War Used To Be The Mechanism For Giving Stupidity The Boot

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Das Boot

A disclaimer: today’s Daily won’t be half as enjoyable for people who don’t like to watch films with subtitles; which is ironic, because the content is not going to be at all enjoyable for people who do like to watch films with subtitles. Consider this a trigger warning before proceeding.

Bloomberg starts the week by telling us that “CRYPTO CRUMPLES”. Bitcoin is down over 50% from its all-time high; all the other ‘coins’ and ‘currencies’ are slumping too; over $1 trillion of “wealth” has disappeared; and El Salvador is looking about as smart as US sports-star Odell Beckham, Jr., who on 12 November signed a contract for $750,000 in Bitcoin, which is now worth half that in dollars – and yet he is going to be taxed at 50.3% federal and local, which means he will net $35,703. I am sure the techno sophisticates, the crypto bros, and the early Meta adopters wandering around in headsets wondering where everyone else is will try to re-boot, but this looks like a crash for now, even before we get to regulatory blue screens of death.

Of course, the timing is not a coincidence. The Fed meets this week. The Fed is worried about inflation, because the White House is too. The Fed is going to make that clear, even if it does not move this month. Some on The Street say they are going to keep hiking rates all year. If they do, it won’t address underlying supply-chain issues at all; but, on past form, it will probably crash just about everything else. Crypto and the NASDAQ (-12% year-to-date) are just a warning.

The non-financial ignores crypto and press beats the drums of war with Russia – the closest cryptonites have come to showing concern about being when Moscow just banned crypto mining.

Ukraine states it is taking UK government allegations of a Russian plot to instigate a coup and set up a puppet government seriously. The UK government may not be able to tell a booze-laden party from a day at the office: but this serious accusation implies either Russia or the West, or both, are trying to stir things up rather than take a step back.

A German admiral just rightly got Das Boot (that’s the subtitle part) for giving a speech in which he declared himself to be a deeply religious Catholic who believes Europe needs to do a deal with ‘fellow-Christian’ Putin, who also deserves our respect, in order to stand up to non-Christian China. All ‘Clash of Civilizations’/not-so-closet prejudice aside, if there was ever a window for an ‘inverse-Nixon’ strategy to ‘flip’ Russia it surely closed in 2016, when some decided the best response to Brexit and a shocking election loss was not to admit the campaigns, candidates, or policies were to blame, but Russia was.

Amazingly, that wasn’t the silliest thing a senior German official said about this crisis this weekend. That award goes to Economy Minister Habeck, who wants to engage Russia economically by cooperating on renewable energy supplies to help de-escalate tensions over Ukraine, noting “We should also think about new business areas that can help lead both sides out of this confrontational position.” In short, the best way to stop a war is for Germany to sell Russia solar panels and wind turbines(!) Of course, this crisis is about carbon – just not in the way the minister thinks: Germany is paying for any Russian invasion with its gas purchases; the question is if it will be prepared to impose biting sanctions on Moscow in that case as even Der Spiegel worries that:

“In German political circles, all kinds of people are currently talking not about what Berlin will do in response to a Russian attack. Rather, they are focusing on what they won’t do. That doesn’t just apply to politicians belonging to the coalition parties, but is also true of Friedrich Merz, who is set to be voted in as the next leader of the conservative CDU – the country’s leading opposition party – in the coming days. Last weekend, he expressed his opposition to excluding Russia from the global payment system SWIFT, which is one of the most painful potential sanctions that has been proposed. Such a step would block the access of Russian banks and companies to international payment flows. And ruling out all kinds of tough sanctions both relieves pressure on Moscow and sends a clear message: Russia can rely on Berlin’s inactivity.”

Which brings me to a recent Twitter thread from @marceldirsus discussing German politics in which he stresses that from the safe, comfortable, prosperous German perspective, war is entirely illogical; that “History matters. There’s an obligation in the minds of many Germans not to go too hard on Russia because Germans killed millions of Russians during WWII. That same way of thinking doesn’t extend to Ukraine even though Germans also killed millions of Ukrainians. It just doesn’t.”; and that “Moral superiority aside, nothing is more important to Germany than the pursuit of short-term economic interests. If you can trade freely with everyone and afford not to worry about security or other political considerations, why wouldn’t you? That’s what Germany is doing.”

Allow me to give this attitude a name: “champagne pacifism”. (The cousin of the champagne socialism of those who can easily afford to pay higher taxes, or who avoid paying them while backing them.) Now don’t get me wrong, pacifism is great. But, like all virtues, it means far more when you have to risk something for it. It’s easy to be a pacifist in Bavaria; much harder in Brovary, outside Kyiv; and Bialystok, on Poland’s eastern border.

The current crisis is proving a shock to eastern EU members. It’s one thing to see one-rule-for-me-and-another-for-you stances during a financial crisis caused by German intra-EU trade surpluses that didn’t impact them; or to clash over cultural or rule-of-law issues; but it’s another to have Russian tanks potentially roll up to your doorstep only to have parts of Berlin look stressed at the idea of standing alongside you if it means economic pain to them. The potential long-term damage to the EU from this cannot be dismissed lightly. And, more concretely, if we were to see war start soon, EUR is unlikely to be the safe haven it has been in the recent past.

While peace is always the goal, one thing is worth noting. For much of history, war used to be the underlying mechanism for giving institutional stupidity the boot: mismanage your state finances? You lose the war, and your country; treat your peasants too badly? They won’t fight for you – you lose the war, and your country; listen to idiot experts who pretend they know what they are doing/following? You lose the war, and your country; appoint idiot generals who only look good in uniform? You lose the war, and your country.

Alongside nuclear weapons, we moved to a Cold War economic contest, which the West won, and then a Pax Americana where markets were supposed to do this institutional-stupidity-thinning job for us bloodlessly. Until we ruined them too with QE. Nothing now seems able to sort the wheat from the chaff anywhere we look. Even crises on the scale of the GFC and Covid fail to generate any key changes “because markets”, and where we do see radical change there appears no joined-up thinking to broader issues.

Yet Russia now suggests we are back to a more bare-knuckle Great Power global contest again. That offers a steely litmus test for what policies do and don’t work, and are and aren’t relevant. If so, we will see some institutional-stupidity given the boot. Or we will listen out for the jackboots.

That process will ultimately prove as disruptive to markets as any Fed hikes.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/24/2022 – 10:23

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Capitulation Bloodbath: Stocks Crash After Most Negative Opening TICK Of 2022, Russell Enters Bear Market As VIX Explodes

Capitulation Bloodbath: Stocks Crash After Most Negative Opening TICK Of 2022, Russell Enters Bear Market As VIX Explodes

It’s official: as of this morning, the S&P is in a correction, having tumbled 10% from its all time high recorded at the start of the month…

… with the Russell suffering an even more humiliating fate, as it entered a bear market at roughly the same time, tumbling 20% from its early November all time high.

The opening puke was precipitated by a marketwide flush, manifesting in the most negative opening TICK in a year at -1,897…

… which was also the 2nd most negative TICK of 2022 as everyone hit the sell button at the same time.

And as stocks (and cryptos) crash, and yields tumble, the VIX is exploding above 35, the highest since Jan 2021, and the level which DataTrek said would likely mark the bottom in sentiment.

Commenting on today’s market technicals, SpotGamma writes that Fridays expiration leads to a reduction in gamma, but we still anticipate high volatility for today. Resistance is at 4400 followed by 4453. Support lies at 4356 and 4330. We are now clearly below both supports.

As SG warns, “This is a very fragile, unstable market which is likely prone to large, directional swings” and continues:

As there was a substantial expiration on Friday, we expect that many hedges need be settled across indicies and single stocks. Based on this we anticipate some opening chop due to these hedge adjustments. For example TSLA, which had nearly $20bn in call deltas expiring Friday, is quoted in premarket trading at ~$900 (-4.5%)

However, we generally believe that the expiration of large put options can lead to a short cover rally in markets. Due to large negative gamma position, we think these rallies could be violent, but offer little stability and could mean revert quickly.

Echoing Goldman, SpotGamma notes that it does not think there can be a material rally in stocks until after Wednesdays FOMC. Aside from investors waiting to assess various policy implications, its likely that traders are hedging the event which will hold implied volatility high. This limits the positive vanna flows that could enter the market.

With this in mind, both short dated S&P options & the VIX are at 30 which implies a 1.8% 1 day move. This places the term structure in a backwardated position, which suggests a fair amount of fear in markets. Again, given the FOMC, we think that traders may look to sell very short dated “pre-FOMC” IV which could provide a brief market tailwind, too.

And with stocks taking out low after low, SpotGamma cautions that there are essentially 2 zones for support. One is at 4275, and the other is well south at 4080. If traders elect to initiate new put positions that would pressure markets lower, and increase elevated IV levels. This could accelerate the velocity of any downside move.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/24/2022 – 10:02

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Supreme Court Agrees To Hear Case That Could End Use Of Race In College Admissions

Supreme Court Agrees To Hear Case That Could End Use Of Race In College Admissions

Following a handful of landmark cases brought by the DoJ accusing colleges of unfairly disadvantaging Asian and White applicants, the Supreme Court has just decided to hear arguments that could result in it radically breaking with precedent to ban the consideration of race in college applications.

The AP reported that SCOTUS had agreed to hear the challenge to the status quo, which could result in the biggest change to the legal framework surrounding college admissions – seen as a key gateway to the meritocratic American dream – since 2003, when Grutter v. Bollinger reasserted that universities may take race into account to create a “racially diverse” student body, to the benefit of all students. But the precedents go back decades, all the way to the 1964 Civil Rights Act.

The court has chosen to hear an appeal from Students for Fair Admissions, an activist group working to end bias against Asian applicants at top universities, It has also opted to hear appeals from Harvard and other prestigious universities urging that the precedent be upheld.

“Grutter is wrong, immoral, and unpersuasive, and has not aged well,” argued the group, Students for Fair Admissions, run by longtime preferences opponent Edward Blum.

Unfortunately for Students for Fair Admissions, the Biden Administration is taking the other side, with the administration’s lawyers filing appeals alongside Harvard and its coterie of elite schools.

In her landmark opinion for the majority, Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, a Republican appointed by President Ronald Reagan, predicted that racial preferences would no longer be necessary in 25 years. However, Harvard insists that these methods are still absolutely necessary.

“Universities across the country have followed this precedent in structuring their admissions processes,” Harvard argued. “And the American public has looked to this precedent for assurance that the nation recognizes and values the benefits of diversity and that the path to leadership is open to all.”

Many lower courts have rejected SFA’s challenge, including the Boston-based 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which upheld the Harvard policy in a 2-0 ruling. The case will turn on the Court’s interpretation – or reinterpretation – of the 1964 Civil Rights Act’s Title VI, which bars racial discrimination by universities that receive federal funding.

The case will likely be heard during the Court session beginning in October.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/24/2022 – 10:00

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Smile! The IRS Wants You To Send Selfies to a Facial Recognition Company


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“No Identity Left Behind.” Americans who want to access tax return transcripts, check on child tax credits, or do other tasks through the IRS website will have to turn over their image to a facial recognition company called ID.me.

To get verified through ID.me, a person must “provide a photo of an identity document such as a driver’s license, state ID or passport” and “take a selfie with a smartphone or a computer with a webcam,” the IRS website explains.

“The IRS emphasizes taxpayers can pay or file their taxes without submitting a selfie or other information to a third-party identity verification company,” an IRS spokesperson said.

But that’s not so for tasks like accessing tax account information—including your tax records—online, using the Child Tax Credit Update Portal, setting up an online payment plan, or getting an identity protection pin. And “additional IRS applications will transition to the new method over the next year,” the agency says.

The IRS began rolling out the new requirement for child tax credit accounts last summer. By this upcoming summer, it will be required for all IRS online service accounts (existing online account credentials will no longer work). “The new process is one more step the IRS is taking to ensure that taxpayer information is provided only to the person who legally has a right to the data,” states the IRS website.

Of course, turning over private data to ID.me—including Social Security numbers, ID documents, etc.—risks exposing them through security breaches and through the company’s own policies.

ID.me offers relatively broad criteria under which it can share your data.

“Information we receive about you can be accessed and preserved for an extended period when it is the subject of a legal request or obligation, governmental investigation, or investigations of possible violations of our terms or policies, criminal and other investigations, or otherwise to prevent harm,” states its privacy policy (emphasis mine).

We access, preserve and share your information with regulators, government agencies, law enforcement and other third parties if we have a good faith belief:

  • It is required to meet or comply with any applicable law, regulation, legal process, or enforceable governmental request (like a search warrant, discovery request in a civil proceeding, court order or subpoena).
  • It is necessary to investigate, detect, prevent and address fraud, suspected or actual prohibited activities, unauthorized use of the ID.Me Service, violations of our Terms of Service or policies, or other harmful, criminal or illegal activity.
  • It is necessary to protect ourselves (including our rights, property or the ID.Me Service), you or others, including as part of investigations or regulatory inquiries or in response to requests from law enforcement; or to prevent financial loss, property damage, death or imminent bodily harm.”

As for security, ID.me notes that “no data transmission over the Internet or any wireless network can be guaranteed to be 100% secure. As a result, while we employ commercially reasonable security measures to protect data and seek to partner with service providers that do the same, we cannot guarantee the security of any information transmitted to or from the Website, and are not responsible for the actions of any third parties that may receive any such information.”

In a press release (which touts something the company calls its “No Identity Left Behind initiative”), ID.me CEO and founder Blake Hall said, “privacy is core to our mission and we do not sell the personal information of our users.”


FREE MINDS

With Russia potentially preparing to invade Ukraine, the Biden administration is threatening more economic sanctions against Russia and has sent two shipments of weapons to Ukraine. (Surely, none of those will get in the wrong hands…). Still, some on the right are accusing President Joe Biden of being weak. But what more would they actually have him do?

A lot of critics’ pronouncements about what should be done are vague/platitudes (“we simply need to let Putin know that the United States stands with our Ukrainian friends,” Iowa Republican Sen. Joni Ernst told ABC’s This Week on Sunday) or stress steps Biden has taken or is considering taking. The real aim seems to be scoring political points, using a pending war across the globe as yet another opportunity to trash the Biden administration. But while there are plenty of things to criticize the administration for, not being more hawkish toward Russia-Ukraine is certainly not one of them.

Whether reasonable responses will prevail in the face of all this is unclear. The New York Times reported yesterday that “Biden is considering deploying several thousand U.S. troops, as well as warships and aircraft, to NATO allies in the Baltics and Eastern Europe, an expansion of American military involvement amid mounting fears of a Russian incursion into Ukraine.”

More Ukraine-related commentary and news:


FREE MARKETS

America’s geriatric music market. Information from music analytics firm MRC Data shows that 70 percent of the U.S. music market is composed of old songs. And “the news gets worse: The new-music market is actually shrinking,” notes The Atlantic.

All the growth in the market is coming from old songs.

The 200 most popular new tracks now regularly account for less than 5 percent of total streams. That rate was twice as high just three years ago. The mix of songs actually purchased by consumers is even more tilted toward older music. The current list of most-downloaded tracks on iTunes is filled with the names of bands from the previous century, such as Creedence Clearwater Revival and The Police.


QUICK HITS

• America is bombing a Syrian prison where hundreds of kids are housed.

• Older women share tales of abortion in a pre–Roe v. Wade world. (Saturday marked the 49th anniversary of that decision.)

• How cryptocurrency is helping Afghan families.

• “No, there were no litter boxes on school grounds for students to use if they identified as furries”: The rumor was bred by people opposed to unisex bathrooms in Michigan schools.

• West Virginia is doubling down on fentanyl myths.

• Legislation in Florida would ban schools from discussions of sexuality and gender identity.

• When people are symptomatic and have high viral loads, rapid tests are proving about as effective at detecting omicron as they were other COVID-19 variants. But tests may not be as effective at picking up on omicron more generally.

The post Smile! The IRS Wants You To Send Selfies to a Facial Recognition Company appeared first on Reason.com.

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US Services PMI Crashes To 18-Month Lows As Omicron Strikes

US Services PMI Crashes To 18-Month Lows As Omicron Strikes

With US macro data serially disappointing in recent weeks, it should come as no surprise that analysts expected both Services and Manufacturing surveys from Markit to slide further in preliminary January data. The analysts were right in direction but the magnitude was dramatically worse with Manufacturing dropping from 57.7 to 55.0 (worse than the 56.8 expected) while Services collapsed from 57.6 to 50.9 (hugely worse than the 55.0 expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the lowest Services print since July 2020 and lowest Manufacturing since October 2020, which combined dragged the US Composite PMI down to July 2020 lows – now second only to Japan for the weakest economy in the developed world.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

“Soaring virus cases have brought the US economy to a near standstill at the start of the year, with businesses disrupted by worsening supply chain delays and staff shortages, with new restrictions to control the spread of Omicron adding to firms’ headwinds.

“However, output has been affected by Omicron much more than demand, with robust growth of new business inflows hinting that growth will pick up again once restrictions are relaxed. Furthermore, although supply chain delays continued to prove a persistent drag on the pace of economic growth, linked to port congestion and shipping shortages, the overall rate of supply chain deterioration has eased compared to that seen throughout much of the second half of last year. This has in turn helped lift manufacturing optimism about the year ahead to the highest for over a year, and has also helped bring the rate of raw material price inflation down sharply. Thus, despite the survey signalling a disappointing start to the year, there are some encouraging signals for the near-term outlook

Nevertheless, Q1 GDP looks like it’s going to be a big disappointment…

Will The Fed be hiking rates in a recession?

Finally, we note that this trend in PMIs is not a good sign for US equity markets…

In fact, perhaps it is the market that is leading Markit lower.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/24/2022 – 09:54

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/35nLDkF Tyler Durden

NATO Puts Forces On Standby, Deploys More Jets & Ships – Russia Responds With 20 Warships In Baltic

NATO Puts Forces On Standby, Deploys More Jets & Ships – Russia Responds With 20 Warships In Baltic

On Monday NATO announced it has put its forces on “standby” while initiating deployment of additional ships and fighter jets to Eastern Europe. “NATO will continue to take all necessary measures to protect and defend all Allies, including by reinforcing the eastern part of the Alliance,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement.

    “We will always respond to any deterioration of our security environment, including through strengthening our collective defense,” Stoltenberg added, while discussing the ongoing Russia-Ukraine showdown, which the Kremlin has denounced as hype and based on false allegations it’s planning an invasion. The Kremlin has further reiterated its plea for Western countries to stop the “hysteria”, which itself is hyping the crisis further. One NATO diplomat has been cited in reports Monday saying the Biden administration is mulling a move to transfer some troops from Western Europe to Eastern Europe in the coming weeks.

    NATO jets file, Flickr

    But the Western allies are also pointing to the additional Russian military units now deployed to Belarus in preparation for the announced joint war games to be held there next month. “We are reaching the point where continuous Russian and Belarusian military buildup in Europe needs to be addressed by appropriate NATO countermeasures,” Latvia’s Foreign Affairs minister Edgars Rinkēvič stated Monday.

    In its official statement, NATO headquarters detailed which assets that European alliance members have begun to send toward the region, including to the Baltic Sea and Eastern Europe

    In the past days, a number of Allies have made announcements regarding current or upcoming deployments. Denmark is sending a frigate to the Baltic Sea and is set to deploy four F-16 fighter jets to Lithuania in support of NATO’s long-standing air-policing mission in the region. Spain is sending ships to join NATO naval forces and is considering sending fighter jets to Bulgaria. France has expressed its readiness to send troops to Romania under NATO command. The Netherlands is sending two F-35 fighter aircraft to Bulgaria from April to support NATO’s air-policing activities in the region, and is putting a ship and land-based units on standby for NATO’s Response Force. The United States has also made clear that it is considering increasing its military presence in the eastern part of the Alliance. 

    Thus given the scant number of actual aircraft and ships being sent, it appears the above is part of yet more posturing on the level of a ‘threatened’ military build-up… rhetoric that’s become almost the norm for the past days and weeks.

    Still, it’s a dangerous enough situation for some countries to begin drawing down embassy staff in Kiev. After Sunday it was confirmed the US has begun ordering families of diplomatic personnel out of Ukraine, and the UK Foreign Office also announced Monday that some of its staff and dependents are withdrawing.

    “Officials say there have been no specific threats to British diplomats, but about half of the staff working in Kyiv will return to the UK,” BBC noted of the move. This after the US claimed starting last week that a Russian invasion could come “at any time”. 

    Meanwhile, it appears Russia’s response to the NATO build-up will come in the form of naval drills, with Interfax reporting Monday that twenty Russian Navy ships have deployed to conduct drills and movements in the Baltic Sea.

    The carrier group led by the USS Truman is at the same time spearheading NATO military exercises in the Mediterranean, to the south… A Pentagon statement said, “Starting Monday, NATO allies, including the United States, kick off the 12-day maritime exercise Neptune Strike ’22 in the Mediterranean Sea, Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby said during a briefing today.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/24/2022 – 09:45

    via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3rEh8hu Tyler Durden