Month: February 2022

Zelensky Signs Decree Adding 100,000 To Army As Virtual Ukraine Invasion Is Virtually Imminent

Zelensky Signs Decree Adding 100,000 To Army As Virtual Ukraine Invasion Is Virtually Imminent

Despite for much of last week seeking to downplay Washington’s rhetoric of an “imminent” Russian invasion, given the panic it unleashed among the Ukrainian population, President Volodymyr Zelensky is now seeking to greatly expand his army, also a moment Kiev is using the opportunity to gain more US weaponry and money.

On Tuesday Zelensky signed a decree to increase the total size of the armed forces by 100,000 troops, and ordered a pay increase across the ranks over the next three years. Ironically he still sought to calm fears of a Russian military invasion, saying the decision is “not because we will soon have a war… but so that soon and in the future there will be peace in Ukraine.”

Zelensky’s visit to front lines in Donbas last year: Ukraine President’s Office.

While Russia’s armed forces are commonly estimated at just under one million, Ukraine’s military is made up of about 250,000.

According to BBC, “Mr Zelensky told Ukraine’s parliament, the Rada, that he had signed a decree to increase the size of the Ukrainian army by 100,000 active soldiers, with the formation of 20 new brigades over three years while phasing out compulsory military service. Ukraine’s professional army is vastly outnumbered by Russia’s.”

Below is an infographic comparing the two militaries, clearly showing Russia’s overwhelming superiority in terms of equipment and forces, via BBC:

Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrived in Kiev on Tuesday, ironically or perhaps “conveniently” at a moment he’s embroiled in political scandal and calls for his resignation amid ‘partygate’. 

Johnson is said to be in Ukraine’s capital to vow a new pledge of £88m ($118m) to “promote stable governance and energy independence from Russia.” Earlier this month the UK was first out of the gate with frequent military flights delivering arms to Ukraine, believed to be mainly anti-tank and anti-armor missiles and systems.

Though Zelensky and his top officials have continued to say that the Russia threat is less than what the US and UK have been making it out to be, Washington has continued to appear more alarmed than Kiev itself.

For example US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield days ago alleged that Russia would have never amassed the amount of troops they have if they didn’t intend to use them against Ukraine. “We’ve seen the Russian playbook before. They are using disinformation. They’re encouraging Ukrainians not to worry about an attack, but we know that the attack is possible,” she told ABC’s “This Week.” She added: “You don’t amass 100,000 troops if you don’t have intentions to use them.”

But given that the world has now been hearing for weeks about the “imminent” Russian invasion that never seems to materialize, it’s at this point appearing more like a virtual Ukraine invasion is virtually imminent – to borrow a line from The Saker.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/01/2022 – 12:27

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This Texas Town Rejected Stimulus Money to Avoid Vaccine Mandates


texas refusal funds thumb4

The American Rescue Plan Act, which was signed by President Joe Biden on March 11, 2021, allocated $19.5 billion in federal aid to municipalities with populations of less than 50,000.

Brady, Texas, population 5,500, was offered $1.3 million. But it turned the money down.

“Obviously we could have used the money, but at what cost?” Brady-based activist and lobbyist Sheila Hemphill told Reason.

Brady was one of at least 243 small towns across the country to reject or return the federal stimulus aid. Residents were concerned that in return for the money, the government would have the right to audit how the funds were used. They were also worried that the money would allow the Biden administration to force the town to comply with its executive order mandating vaccination for all employees at companies with more than 100 workers. Though it was later struck down by the Supreme Court, the order wouldn’t have had much of an impact on Brady regardless since its school district is the only organization in town large enough to be impacted.

For the residents of Brady, it was the principle that mattered.

“Today it’s about the COVID-19 vaccine mandate. But the big problem is it’s an executive order that could be who knows what, because that comes with the stroke of a pen,” said Hemphill.

Sixty-seven other Texas towns followed suit. Among them was Mason, which has a population of 2,400 and turned down $570,000.

Sue Pledger, a Mason city commissioner, learned about the potential drawbacks of accepting stimulus money from Hemphill. “The federal government has no right to come in and audit us, has no right to our financial records,” she told Reason. “We haven’t entered a contract…We’re separate, and that’s the way we want to keep it here in Mason.”

“We had very strong support in a very short time that we had made the right choice, based on what representing the citizens in this community meant. It meant giving back the funds, staying sovereign, keeping our independence, not giving the federal government a foot in our finances, or over what we do with our contracts.”

Mike Maharrey, the national director of communications for The Tenth Amendment Center, says that the government has a long track record of using federal money to extend its control over states. The Anti-Commandeering Doctrine gives Brady the right to refuse to enforce executive orders, but the stimulus funding gives the federal government the power to say if you don’t “‘enforce these various mandates and regulations…we can take the money back,'” Maharrey told Reason.

Nationwide, the share of each state’s total revenue contributed by the federal government ranges from nearly half to a quarter, and that money generally comes with conditions.

“Bribery is a very good term for what the federal government is doing,” says Maharrey. “The only way that you can avoid the consequences of being bribed is to not take the bribe.”

He adds: “In a lot of cases you don’t know specifically what those strings are going to be because the federal government writes these contracts or agreements in such a way as to give the federal government a great deal of latitude to kind of retroactively fit in what policies they want in place.”

Maharrey says a system that gives power to local governments is the better of two evils. “I’m not somebody who’s all for decentralization because I think state and local governments are somehow better. They’re just as bad as the federal government. But as with any system, a decentralized system is going to be better for the individual than a monopoly system…I’d rather deal with 50 different states than have everything, one-size-fits-all, emanating from the federal government.”

Produced and edited by John Osterhoudt, camera by Osterhoudt and Zach Weissmueller, additional graphics by Isaac Reese

Photos: Abaca Press/Gripas Yuri/Abaca/Sipa USA/Newscom; Earl S. Cryer/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; MEGA/Newscom; Coolcaesar/CC BY-SA 3.0/Wikimedia Commons

Videos: Brady Chamber of Commerce; City of Brady; Kelly L from Pexels.

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The U.S. Needs To Rethink Its Approach to Ukraine and Russia


zumaamericasthirtythree595389

This week, American and Russian officials are engaged in a diplomatic brawl over rising tensions in Ukraine. While Russia has denied that the 100,000 troops stationed on the Ukrainian border are gearing up for an invasion, President Joe Biden has begun to weigh how the U.S. will respond if Russia does invade. The past month has featured arms shipments to Ukraine, debates about NATO enlargement, and talks of sanctions against Moscow. And while American officials are responding to the situation with a sense of urgency, they’re missing important parts of the big picture.

Rajan Menon, director of the Grand Strategy program at Defense Priorities and expert on Russia and Ukraine, criticizes what he sees as misconceptions and oversimplifications of the conflict. “One of the problems in this crisis is that people have tried to find the magic bullet that explains everything,” Menon tells Reason. “And whether it’s on the Russian side or our side, there are many, many pieces going on.”

There’s no perfect solution to current tensions, but that hasn’t stopped some U.S. officials from quickly looking to American military might. The Pentagon has put 8,500 U.S. troops on “heightened alert” for potential deployment to Eastern Europe, and Biden has said that the U.S. will send troops to NATO countries “in the near term” (but not “a lot” of them). Just last week, the U.S. sent Ukraine a shipment of munitions as part of a $200 million security assistance package.

There are several issues with the instinct to jump straight to military-based actions, whether they involve boots on the ground or not. First, fewer than one in six Americans believes the U.S. should send American soldiers to defend Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion. Second, as Menon argues, “Ukraine is not an ally…an ally is a country to which we have made a defense commitment.” Painting Ukraine as an ally distorts U.S. obligations and “misleads the American public.”

Third—and overlooked by politicians and pundits alike—is that Biden arguably does not have the authority to deploy troops in the way he’s suggested.

Proponents of U.S. involvement have pointed out that Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty—which says an armed attack on one NATO member “shall be considered an attack against them all,” triggering collective self-defense measures—might call the U.S. to act militarily, and allow Biden to do so without congressional approval. But Russian President Vladimir Putin has neither attacked Ukraine nor a NATO ally, rendering this concern moot for now.

What is concerning is Biden’s decision to deploy troops to NATO’s eastern flank without consulting Congress. While the president is authorized under the Constitution to direct the U.S. Armed Forces, he can only do so following a congressional declaration of war. Presidents have deployed U.S. troops across the globe without congressional approval countless times since the last official declaration of war, which came during World War II. Lawmakers passed the 1973 War Powers Act in an attempt to restrict such presidential overreach in conflicts, requiring the executive to remove any troops he’s deployed after 60 days if Congress doesn’t grant an extension.

Since 1973, the legislation has done little to restore Congress’ rightful war-making powers, and it likely won’t limit Biden’s Ukraine-adjacent deployment. “The War Powers Act has almost pretty much become meaningless, because presidents have clever lawyers who make the case that this is not actually a war,” says Menon. “The imperial presidency has, in this respect, kind of sidelined Congress.”

Though sidelined in this conversation, Congress hasn’t been much better in its own approach to the conflict. The Intercept reported last week that House Democrats were planning to expedite a massive bill that would greatly expand U.S. security assistance to Ukraine and map out dramatic sanctions on Russia. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D–Calif.) reportedly told her colleagues that she hoped to skip the markup stage. “This is how the space for nonmilitary options gets slowly closed off in Washington, without any real debate,” a senior Democratic aide told The Intercept. A Senate bill, meanwhile, would send $500 million in military aid to Ukraine and give it priority status for excess defense equipment.

Concerned politicians have invoked “the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan” and warned of a rising “new Iron Curtain” if the U.S. doesn’t forcefully (and militarily) counter Russia. This, too, puts matters in overly simplistic terms. “The question’s not abandonment versus sending American troops to fight on Russia’s doorstep,” says Menon, pointing to a “continuum of measures” that Biden could take instead.

Right now, the U.S. should be doing all it can diplomatically to avoid conflict with Russia. That could take a number of forms: prioritizing U.S.-Russia bilateral talks, offering Russia a moratorium on Ukrainian NATO admission, and halting U.S. military aid to Ukraine in exchange for Russia stopping its military buildup on the border. Russia is chiefly responsible for current tensions, and Putin’s finger is on the trigger, but compromise will be necessary to prevent a full-blown invasion.

Russian and American envoys met yesterday in the United Nations Security Council to discuss tensions in Ukraine, though the talks featured little more than harsh words. “We’re going to go in the room prepared to listen to [Russia],” America’s U.N. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said in advance of the meeting. “But we’re not going to be distracted by their propaganda, and we’re going to be prepared to respond to any disinformation that they attempt to spread during this meeting.”

“If anything, the strident rhetoric might get—unless it’s carefully done—the two sides to go further out and take positions that they’ll have a hard time climbing back from,” Menon says.

Even if U.S. politicians do end up rethinking their approach to the conflict, they will still need to tackle their underlying assumptions. This is a prime opportunity to reconsider U.S. military obligations (perceived or real) to war-prone nations, the tendency to address tensions with soldiers and weapons rather than negotiations and compromise, and America’s deep involvement in European security. As with so many other aspects of Ukraine-Russia tensions, American lawmakers ignore the bigger picture at their own peril.

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Stocks Slide After Manchin Confirms ‘Build Back Better’ Bill Is “Dead”

Stocks Slide After Manchin Confirms ‘Build Back Better’ Bill Is “Dead”

Having experienced the usual BTFD bounce this morning after opening weakness, US equity markets are sliding after reports that Senator Joe Manchin has unequivocably stated that President Biden’s Build Back Better bill is “dead.”

We are not exactly sure what the market was expecting but this was enough to send stocks lower…

Developing…

Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/01/2022 – 12:17

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/yCO5S6EH9 Tyler Durden

The U.S. Needs To Rethink Its Approach to Ukraine and Russia


zumaamericasthirtythree595389

This week, American and Russian officials are engaged in a diplomatic brawl over rising tensions in Ukraine. While Russia has denied that the 100,000 troops stationed on the Ukrainian border are gearing up for an invasion, President Joe Biden has begun to weigh how the U.S. will respond if Russia does invade. The past month has featured arms shipments to Ukraine, debates about NATO enlargement, and talks of sanctions against Moscow. And while American officials are responding to the situation with a sense of urgency, they’re missing important parts of the big picture.

Rajan Menon, director of the Grand Strategy program at Defense Priorities and expert on Russia and Ukraine, criticizes what he sees as misconceptions and oversimplifications of the conflict. “One of the problems in this crisis is that people have tried to find the magic bullet that explains everything,” Menon tells Reason. “And whether it’s on the Russian side or our side, there are many, many pieces going on.”

There’s no perfect solution to current tensions, but that hasn’t stopped some U.S. officials from quickly looking to American military might. The Pentagon has put 8,500 U.S. troops on “heightened alert” for potential deployment to Eastern Europe, and Biden has said that the U.S. will send troops to NATO countries “in the near term” (but not “a lot” of them). Just last week, the U.S. sent Ukraine a shipment of munitions as part of a $200 million security assistance package.

There are several issues with the instinct to jump straight to military-based actions, whether they involve boots on the ground or not. First, fewer than one in six Americans believes the U.S. should send American soldiers to defend Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion. Second, as Menon argues, “Ukraine is not an ally…an ally is a country to which we have made a defense commitment.” Painting Ukraine as an ally distorts U.S. obligations and “misleads the American public.”

Third—and overlooked by politicians and pundits alike—is that Biden arguably does not have the authority to deploy troops in the way he’s suggested.

Proponents of U.S. involvement have pointed out that Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty—which says an armed attack on one NATO member “shall be considered an attack against them all,” triggering collective self-defense measures—might call the U.S. to act militarily, and allow Biden to do so without congressional approval. But Russian President Vladimir Putin has neither attacked Ukraine nor a NATO ally, rendering this concern moot for now.

What is concerning is Biden’s decision to deploy troops to NATO’s eastern flank without consulting Congress. While the president is authorized under the Constitution to direct the U.S. Armed Forces, he can only do so following a congressional declaration of war. Presidents have deployed U.S. troops across the globe without congressional approval countless times since the last official declaration of war, which came during World War II. Lawmakers passed the 1973 War Powers Act in an attempt to restrict such presidential overreach in conflicts, requiring the executive to remove any troops he’s deployed after 60 days if Congress doesn’t grant an extension.

Since 1973, the legislation has done little to restore Congress’ rightful war-making powers, and it likely won’t limit Biden’s Ukraine-adjacent deployment. “The War Powers Act has almost pretty much become meaningless, because presidents have clever lawyers who make the case that this is not actually a war,” says Menon. “The imperial presidency has, in this respect, kind of sidelined Congress.”

Though sidelined in this conversation, Congress hasn’t been much better in its own approach to the conflict. The Intercept reported last week that House Democrats were planning to expedite a massive bill that would greatly expand U.S. security assistance to Ukraine and map out dramatic sanctions on Russia. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D–Calif.) reportedly told her colleagues that she hoped to skip the markup stage. “This is how the space for nonmilitary options gets slowly closed off in Washington, without any real debate,” a senior Democratic aide told The Intercept. A Senate bill, meanwhile, would send $500 million in military aid to Ukraine and give it priority status for excess defense equipment.

Concerned politicians have invoked “the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan” and warned of a rising “new Iron Curtain” if the U.S. doesn’t forcefully (and militarily) counter Russia. This, too, puts matters in overly simplistic terms. “The question’s not abandonment versus sending American troops to fight on Russia’s doorstep,” says Menon, pointing to a “continuum of measures” that Biden could take instead.

Right now, the U.S. should be doing all it can diplomatically to avoid conflict with Russia. That could take a number of forms: prioritizing U.S.-Russia bilateral talks, offering Russia a moratorium on Ukrainian NATO admission, and halting U.S. military aid to Ukraine in exchange for Russia stopping its military buildup on the border. Russia is chiefly responsible for current tensions, and Putin’s finger is on the trigger, but compromise will be necessary to prevent a full-blown invasion.

Russian and American envoys met yesterday in the United Nations Security Council to discuss tensions in Ukraine, though the talks featured little more than harsh words. “We’re going to go in the room prepared to listen to [Russia],” America’s U.N. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said in advance of the meeting. “But we’re not going to be distracted by their propaganda, and we’re going to be prepared to respond to any disinformation that they attempt to spread during this meeting.”

“If anything, the strident rhetoric might get—unless it’s carefully done—the two sides to go further out and take positions that they’ll have a hard time climbing back from,” Menon says.

Even if U.S. politicians do end up rethinking their approach to the conflict, they will still need to tackle their underlying assumptions. This is a prime opportunity to reconsider U.S. military obligations (perceived or real) to war-prone nations, the tendency to address tensions with soldiers and weapons rather than negotiations and compromise, and America’s deep involvement in European security. As with so many other aspects of Ukraine-Russia tensions, American lawmakers ignore the bigger picture at their own peril.

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Fauci Knew About Likely Lab-Leak From Secret Teleconference, Pushed Alternate Narrative Instead

Fauci Knew About Likely Lab-Leak From Secret Teleconference, Pushed Alternate Narrative Instead

Authored by Katabella Roberts and Joshua Philipp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Dr. Anthony Fauci was told in a secret teleconference that the CCP virus had very likely leaked from a laboratory in China, yet still pushed the alternate narrative that it had originated naturally, new evidence allegedly shows.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testifies at a Senate Health, Education, and Labor and Pensions Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington on Sept. 23, 2020. (Graeme Jennings- Pool/Getty Images)

Redacted emails that were recently made public suggest that Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), initiated efforts to cover up evidence pointing to a laboratory leak as the origin of Covid-19.

Evidence suggests that Fauci also actively shaped a highly influential academic paper first published on Feb. 16, 2020, before later being printed in the prominent science journal Nature which excluded such a possibility.

The article, titled “The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2,” was co-authored by five virologists, four of whom joined Fauci in a Feb. 1, 2020, teleconference.

During the phone call, at least three authors of the paper said they were 60 to 80 percent sure that the CCP virus had originated from a laboratory, something that they also reiterated in emails following the call.

At the time, public reports also emerged of a potential link between the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China and the CCP virus outbreak, yet these reports were dismissed by Fauci and other medical professionals as conspiracy theories.

This includes Peter Daszak, founder of EcoHealth Alliance, the nonprofit that funneled United States grant money to scientists in Wuhan and the other authors, who published a statement that read, “We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.”

In an interview with EpochTV’s “Crossroads” program, Jeff Carlson and Hans Mahncke, hosts of “Truth Over News,” said that the latest evidence suggests that Fauci was well aware that the CCP virus had likely leaked from a laboratory in China, but actively pushed an alternate narrative.

“Proximal origin takes the firm side of the natural origin for the virus. And it’s been used by the media and by the government to debunk any talk of a lab leak. As a matter of fact, that’s what was used to push back on anybody saying anything like that was the established science,” Carlson said.

“Well, the first version of proximal origin was finished on the very same day as the teleconference. So just sort of let that sink in, at the time that Fauci and Collins [National Institutes of Health head Francis Collins] and Farrar [Jeremy Farrar, the head of the UK’s Wellcome Trust], the senior funding, the heads of our health institutions are being told privately that it’s anywhere in the range of 60 to 80 percent likely that this virus has a lab origin, they complete the first draft of proximal origin, which is later used to promote a narrative of a natural origin as opposed to a lab leak origin for the virus,” Carlson said.

Carlson and Mahncke said that despite evidence pointing to the contrary, Fauci then adopted the public stance that he was unaware of the claims that were made by authors on the teleconference.

“What’s new about these emails are the details that have come out through these unredacted emails. Before when there was that email dump, all the emails were basically redacted 95 percent or so or just gray, gray, gray… so now we know what’s behind those redactions, some of them, and what we found out is the level of detail that the scientists already knew at the time about the engineered features of the virus,” Mahncke said.

“So all the stuff that we’ve found out in the past two years, they knew all that on Feb. 1, 2020 … and instead of alerting the world to the fact that there’s an engineered virus that’s hitting the world, Fauci does the exact opposite. He goes out there and says, ‘No, this is all natural,’” Mahncke said.

At a Feb. 3 meeting at the National Academy of Sciences, just two days after the teleconference with the authors of “The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2,” Fauci was asked to assist in drafting a response letter to an inquiry made by the Trump White House regarding the virus’s origins.

Again, he doubled down on his stance that the CCP virus had originated naturally and not from a lab.

“So right there from the start Fauci is pushing really hard and in various forums, all in the same direction, natural, natural, natural, but at the same time, not only was he told it’s very likely that it came out of the lab, he was told the details; that to me is very fascinating,” Mahncke said.

When asked directly while testifying before Congress earlier this month, Fauci denied having communicated with the authors.

U.S. intelligence officials and multiple experts have since obtained evidence suggesting that the CCP virus originated in a lab, but other officials maintain that it has a natural origin.

In September, documents obtained by The Intercept in connection with a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit brought by the publication against the National Institutes of Health showed that EcoHealth Alliance used federal money to fund research into bat coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

The Epoch Times has contacted NIAID for comment.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/01/2022 – 12:08

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Brickbats: February 2022


bb4

Police in Bedfordshire, -England, were mocked on Twitter after posting a picture of a flintlock pistol they seized during a drug raid. The photo of the pistol showed that it had no trigger and no hammer.

David and Paula Knight were dumbfounded when they received a ticket for driving in a bus lane in Bath, England, about 125 miles away from their home in Dorking. The ticket included a photo from a traffic camera that was supposed to be proof of the violation. Instead, it showed a woman wearing a T-shirt with the word knitter written on it walking in the lane. Somehow, her shirt had been confused with the Knights’ license plate, which reads “KN19 TER.”

Former Pulaski County, Kentucky, constable Michael “Wally” Wallace has been sentenced to 11 years and eight months in prison after being convicted of planting drugs on suspects so that he could seize their property. Kentucky constables are elected officials who aren’t paid a salary, but their office can keep a share of money or other goods seized during investigations.

In Ontario, Canada, the Waterloo Region District School Board has begun a review of every book in every library in the school system to identify and remove books the school board deems “harmful to staff and students.” “As our consciousness around equity, oppression work and anti-racist work has grown, we recognize some of the texts in some of the collections that we have are not appropriate at this point,” said Graham Shantz, coordinating superintendent in human resources and equity services.

The school board in Brevard County, Florida, has opened an investigation after a father claimed educators at Ocean Breeze Elementary School were not only forcing his daughter to wear a mask but also tying it to her head, ignoring her medical exemption to the school’s mask mandate. Jeffrey Steele said his daughter has Down syndrome and breathes through her mouth, making mask wearing dangerous for her. He said when he went to the school to confront them about it, school personnel admitted they had been tying the mask to the girl’s face for about six weeks.

British Justice Minister David Wolfson said female inmates who refer to transgender inmates by the wrong pronoun could face extra prison time. Wolfson said that those who make an innocent mistake won’t be punished but those whom guards believe deliberately refer to a trans woman as “he” or “him” could be punished under rules barring “threatening, abusive or insulting words or behavior.”

Missouri’s Republican governor, Mike Parson, has called for the investigation and possible prosecution of a reporter who uncovered a security flaw on the website for the state Department of Elementary and Secondary Education that exposed the Social Security numbers of state teachers. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch alerted the state and allowed the problem to be fixed before publishing a story about the issue. But Parson insisted the reporter had committed a crime and should be punished.

In India, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has warned that those who celebrated Pakistan’s win over India in a cricket match could be charged with sedition. Police in the state arrested five people in October for celebrating the win. India’s colonial-era sedition law bars “words either spoken or written” that cause “hatred or contempt, or excites or attempts to excite disaffection” toward the government.

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Brickbats: February 2022


bb4

Police in Bedfordshire, -England, were mocked on Twitter after posting a picture of a flintlock pistol they seized during a drug raid. The photo of the pistol showed that it had no trigger and no hammer.

David and Paula Knight were dumbfounded when they received a ticket for driving in a bus lane in Bath, England, about 125 miles away from their home in Dorking. The ticket included a photo from a traffic camera that was supposed to be proof of the violation. Instead, it showed a woman wearing a T-shirt with the word knitter written on it walking in the lane. Somehow, her shirt had been confused with the Knights’ license plate, which reads “KN19 TER.”

Former Pulaski County, Kentucky, constable Michael “Wally” Wallace has been sentenced to 11 years and eight months in prison after being convicted of planting drugs on suspects so that he could seize their property. Kentucky constables are elected officials who aren’t paid a salary, but their office can keep a share of money or other goods seized during investigations.

In Ontario, Canada, the Waterloo Region District School Board has begun a review of every book in every library in the school system to identify and remove books the school board deems “harmful to staff and students.” “As our consciousness around equity, oppression work and anti-racist work has grown, we recognize some of the texts in some of the collections that we have are not appropriate at this point,” said Graham Shantz, coordinating superintendent in human resources and equity services.

The school board in Brevard County, Florida, has opened an investigation after a father claimed educators at Ocean Breeze Elementary School were not only forcing his daughter to wear a mask but also tying it to her head, ignoring her medical exemption to the school’s mask mandate. Jeffrey Steele said his daughter has Down syndrome and breathes through her mouth, making mask wearing dangerous for her. He said when he went to the school to confront them about it, school personnel admitted they had been tying the mask to the girl’s face for about six weeks.

British Justice Minister David Wolfson said female inmates who refer to transgender inmates by the wrong pronoun could face extra prison time. Wolfson said that those who make an innocent mistake won’t be punished but those whom guards believe deliberately refer to a trans woman as “he” or “him” could be punished under rules barring “threatening, abusive or insulting words or behavior.”

Missouri’s Republican governor, Mike Parson, has called for the investigation and possible prosecution of a reporter who uncovered a security flaw on the website for the state Department of Elementary and Secondary Education that exposed the Social Security numbers of state teachers. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch alerted the state and allowed the problem to be fixed before publishing a story about the issue. But Parson insisted the reporter had committed a crime and should be punished.

In India, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has warned that those who celebrated Pakistan’s win over India in a cricket match could be charged with sedition. Police in the state arrested five people in October for celebrating the win. India’s colonial-era sedition law bars “words either spoken or written” that cause “hatred or contempt, or excites or attempts to excite disaffection” toward the government.

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S&P Levels To Watch As “Fed Speakers Lunge Around Like ‘Short Gamma’ Traders”

S&P Levels To Watch As “Fed Speakers Lunge Around Like ‘Short Gamma’ Traders”

After the epic melt-up into month-end, during which the world and their pet rabbit was forced to cover or roll any and all downside hedges, the question now is what happens next?

Ahead of the now ‘common knowledge’ that Friday’s payrolls print is going to be a disaster (potentially a negative number) – and reassurances from various ‘experts’ that this will be ‘transitory’, Nomura’s Charlie McElligott comments that Fed Speakers are lunging around like “short Gamma” traders:

The Bostic “50bps” mis-headline-ing episode over the wknd having to then be “walked back” yesterday – followed by Fed’s Daly also then having to clarify early comments made just hours before yesterday as well – are stark reminders that the months ahead are going to get ugly w.r.t. Fed speak being over-interpreted as “forward guidance,” when in reality, their commentary is merely a reflection of extremely high inflation – and wages – convexity month-to-month.

I’ll say it again, they have to maintain “max optionality” for each meeting, and it will be completely dependent upon new data – thus, forward guidance beyond March is DEAD.

But in order to gauge where we are, McElligott explains first how we got here:

The story of Equities the past two days is one of a scramble to get Net Exposure back “up” and not get hurt both ways (after getting smacked on the move lower, they don’t want to miss the bounce higher either)—so yesterday saw funds cover Shorts / monetize Hedges and extend repositioning to play “Offense”—but DEFINITELY with a risk that funds are chasing a “mechanical” bid to a certain extent. Thus:

1) an absolutely explosive short-covering rally (reducing dynamic hedges across singles, baskets, ETFs and futures)…

…crunched further by “mechanical” bid from 2) relentless “Long Delta” options expressions (Sell Puts / Monetize Hedges, Buy Calls / RRs) creating futures to BUY

and 3) Vols getting absolutely cratered (VIX term structure sees spot below futs for the first time in 2w),

4) ongoing resumption of large $buyback flows as we roll through earnings’ blackouts—all of which fed into one-another and exacerbated 5) ongoing Dealer “short Gamma” trading then chasing to the upside (albeit now sharply off worst levels and with spot closer now to “Gamma neutral” levels for the first time in weeks)

This was particularly obvious in “eye of the Equities storm” Growth / Tech via Nasdaq QQQ options, where already entering the day, Dealers were “max short Gamma vs spot” (ref QQQ @ $352 as of Friday’s close) – which matters massively when the associated Net (short) $Delta was so extreme as well (entering Monday at -$31.1B, 0.5%ile)

This above extreme “short Gamma, max short Delta” dynamic wass pure “fuel for a melt-up,” as Dealers had to chase higher prices to stay hedged, hence dreaded “accelerant flows” which buy into strength—but ESPECIALLY against the backdrop of the ENORMOUS market impact created by the rolling-down in the big QQQ Put Spread over the past 3 days, which net / net bot about ~$3B in Delta and yesterday alone sold ~ $3.5mm Vega; now, look at the move off the prior “extremes” in both $Gamma and $Delta.

So, “real pain” in Downside Puts from capitulation / monetization, where Vols were face-melted and then exacerbated in conjunction with the Spot rally = which meant substantial “Vanna” impact on Dealer covering of short-hedges as those out-of-the-money Puts lost Delta, bleeding & decaying; ultimately, it is forcing owners of downside hedges to close or roll.

The recent grab into puts (10-day average volume) has collapsed the spread versus calls…

…and helped create the energy for an explosive rally.

Generally speaking, McElligott notes that any and all “dynamic hedges” laid out in previous days were blistered on Monday – look at the 1d returns across the Nomura + Wolfe “Shorting Baskets,” which mind-you have been PHENOMENAL in “doing their jobs” over the past few months and mitigating the destruction in popular “longs”:

  • Unprofitable IPO Basket +8.7% / + 4 z-score (1Yr rel)

  • Short Hit List Basket +8.4% / +3.6 z-score

  • IPO Lockup Basket +6.2% / +3.3 z-score

  • Potential Tax Loss Basket +6.1% / +3.6 z-score

  • Fusion Short Basket +4.7% / +3.8 z-score

  • Highest Short Interest Basket +4.0% / +2.8 z-score

  • Pricing-Power Basket +3.6% / +3.1 z-score

And to be fair, anything that has been hammered per recent market zeitgiest was absolutely RIPPED HIGHER:

  • Unprofitable Tech +10.1%

  • ARKK +9.3%

  • Post-SPAC Merger +9.0%

  • Recent IPOs +7.2%

  • High Realized Vol +6.7%

  • Retail Favorites +5.4%

  • NYFANG+ 5.4%

  • High Options Volume Basket +5.3%

  • Hedge Fund Overweights +4.5%

Which, the Nomura strategist notes, has pushed equity indices nearer to “flip long” levels for CTA positioning:

  • Nikkei 225, currently -100.0% short, [27050.0], buying over 27402.32 (+1.30%) to get to -62% , more buying over 29257.07 (+8.16%) to get to 38% , flip to long over 29257.07 (+8.16%), max long over 29257.07 (+8.16%)

  • S&P 500, currently -23.4% short, [4504.25], more selling under 3680.15 (-18.30%) to get to -62% , max short under 3679.7 (-18.31%), buying over 4581.42 (+1.71%) to get to 38% , more buying over 4581.87 (+1.72%) to get to 100% , flip to long over 4581.42 (+1.71%), max long over 4581.87 (+1.72%)

  • Euro Stoxx 50, currently -23.4% short, [4143.0], more selling under 3359.24 (-18.92%) to get to -62% , max short under 3358.83 (-18.93%), buying over 4235.07 (+2.22%) to get to 38% , more buying over 4235.49 (+2.23%) to get to 100% , flip to long over 4235.07 (+2.22%), max long over 4235.49 (+2.23%)

  • Russell 2000, currently -100.0% short, [2024.4], buying over 2079.58 (+2.73%) to get to -62% , more buying over 2311.95 (+14.20%) to get to 38% , flip to long over 2311.95 (+14.20%), max long over 2311.95 (+14.20%)

  • HangSeng CH, currently -100.0% short, [8365.0], buying over 8840.16 (+5.68%) to get to -38% , more buying over 10686.66 (+27.75%) to get to 62% , flip to long over 8841.0 (+5.69%), max long over 10686.66 (+27.75%)

  • NASDAQ 100, currently -23.4% short, [14905.0], more selling under 13072.21 (-12.30%) to get to -62% , max short under 13070.72 (-12.31%), buying over 15759.93 (+5.74%) to get to 38% , more buying over 15761.42 (+5.75%) to get to 100% , flip to long over 15759.93 (+5.74%), max long over 15761.42 (+5.75%)

 CTA Trend positioning still largely “short” across Global Equities signals:

SpotGamma confirms McElligott’s view that this most recent meltup move as primarily short covering (i.e. puts closed = dealers buy back short stock), which makes the rally unstable. Closing above 4500 likely changes the mechanics of dealer flow from negative to positive gamma, which when combined with a decline in implied volatility[IV] could add to an equity tailwind.

4500 is a critical level for the S&P. As you can see in the chart below, at strikes >=4500 the size of the call gamma bars increases substantially. It is call gamma that supplies volatility-suppressing hedging flow and an equity tailwind. In that same light we do see 4500 as something of a resistance area, and the primary equity inflow will need to transition from short covering to real buyers to puncture this area.

However, from an options perspective there does not appear to be anything to materially support the markets below. As it does seem that puts have been closed (or at least “weakened” through time & IV reduction), a subsequent selloff could be more violent, and have a lower, lower bound.

So, 4581 is a key level for the S&P 500 to extend gains; 4500 is the line in the sand; and to the downside triggers,  4480 is the Vol Trigger, and 4437 is the 200DMA.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/01/2022 – 11:53

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/B5vYFGCKX Tyler Durden

New York Times Sues To Get Hunter Biden Information

New York Times Sues To Get Hunter Biden Information

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We have repeatedly discussed the virtual news blackout on the influence peddling by the Biden family, particularly Hunter Biden.

Despite overwhelming evidence of millions given by foreign companies and officials, the media has preferred to cover literal scoops over a story of breathtaking levels of self-dealing and corruption by the Bidens.

Now, however, the New York Times has sued to force the Biden Administration to turn over information on Hunter Biden’s Romanian dealings.

The lawsuit comes after another report that, in 2019, the FBI subpoenaed JP Morgan for records on Hunter Biden’s Chinese dealings.

In a new lawsuit on Monday, the Times sued the State Department to obtain emails from Romanian embassy officials sent between 2015 and 2019 mentioning a number of international business figures, including the president’s son and his former business associate Tony Bobulinski.

While the request was sent in December 2021, the Biden Administration told the Times that the soonest that it could possibly turn over the information is April 15, 2023. That is after the mid-term elections.

This story could be a bit awkward for the White House staff.

When the New York Times Ken Vogel wrote about Hunter Biden’s dealings as a potential “significant liability,” Biden officials viciously attacked him while others suggested that he was a pawn of Russian or Trump disinformation.

Of course, the allegations proved to be true and the infamous laptop is now considered authentic.

One of the most outspoken aides denying the entire story was Kate Bedingfield, who is now the director of White House Communications. She denounced the story as an “egregious act of journalistic malpractice.”

Andrew Bates, who is now deputy director, tweeted  “SCOOP from Philadelphia: KEN VOGEL (@kenvogel ) is a COWARD.”

They will now handle questions on this story as White House officials. That includes why President Biden repeatedly said that no one had accused Hunter or his family of “doing anything wrong” when he was presumably aware of the FBI subpoena and the seizure of the laptop. Given these investigations, there is also the question of why a special counsel has not been appointed given President Biden’s past comments that have been contradicted by witnesses (as well as references to his own financial accounts in these emails).

The media and FBI investigations now cover transactions ranging from China, Ukraine, Russia, Romania, and other countries. Millions flowed to the Biden family while Joe Biden was Vice President and later as he prepared for a presidential run. Biden is still running out for ice cream and the media is dutifully covering it. The question however remains whether this will remain just desserts . . .  or whether Hunter and others will receive their just deserts for influencing peddling.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/01/2022 – 11:24

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/RVl0T8PnU Tyler Durden