Flexibility Gave Charter Schools an Edge During the Pandemic


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Experience demonstrates that there are a lot of reasons to support school choice, from escaping curricula wars to seeking academic excellence to adopting preferred teaching methods and schedules. But the last couple of years also demonstrated that relatively small institutions dependent on attracting families that can enroll or disenroll at will are more nimble than traditional public schools in responding to crises.

Starting at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Stanford University’s Center for Research on Education Outcomes (CREDO) examined how charter schools responded to the public health threat in comparison to traditional public schools. Looking at schools in California, New York, and Washington for the period from March to June 2020 and then for the 2020-21 school year, researchers found that charters were able to pivot from in-school teaching to remote instruction remarkably quickly.

“In multiple states and under varying conditions, the majority of charter schools we surveyed demonstrated resilience and creativity in responding to the physical and social challenges presented by COVID,” CREDO announced on February 15. “They reacted strongly and acted quickly to shift to remote instruction. Communication was elevated as a priority. They assessed student and teacher needs for technology and mobilized resources and contacts to distribute technology and subsidize internet access.” Specifically, to keep kids learning, 83 percent of surveyed charter schools provided equipment, such as laptops, while 73 percent offered internet access.

Remarkably, in Spring 2020, charter schools in California took an average of just four days to shift to remote teaching once they closed their doors for fear of viral infection. Charters in New York took an average of three days to make the transition, and those in Washington averaged two days. By contrast, “The Center on Reinventing Public Education (CRPE) found that nearly 70 percent of districts nationally were not providing instruction in spring 2020.”

Charter schools were also nimble in shifting to hybrid models that split student time between remote and in-person teaching. That gave kids some of the benefits of face-to-face interaction while also allowing for social distancing.

One of the challenges of the transition to remote learning was in making sure that students made the effort to sign-in and participate in online classes. “Ninety-five percent of respondents in our study reported using daily touch points (interactions per day, a daily log-in, or logging in to half their classes) counting as present,” reported CREDO. Many traditional district schools let attendance slide, at least in the early days of the pandemic.

Expectations went the other way, too, with charters asking more of educators. Researchers report that “74 percent of charter schools expected teachers to provide instruction during COVID-19 school closures, compared with just 47 percent of school districts.”

This doesn’t mean that charter schools made a seamless transition to the pandemic environment. Schools reported covering just an average 86 percent of the English Language Arts curriculum, 85 percent of math, 78 percent of science, and 80 percent of social studies. Understandably, students suffered. “Overall, the average reported percentage of students with considerable or major academic losses was 43 percent, with 19 percent being reported as having major academic losses.” What those losses constituted isn’t defined in the study.

For context, at the end of the 2020-21 school year, the NWEA testing outfit reported that students in public schools were eight to 12 percentile points behind where they were expected to be in math and three to six percentile points behind in reading. McKinsey similarly found that pandemic disruptions left “students on average five months behind in mathematics and four months behind in reading by the end of the school year.”

Importantly, charter schools are selected (or rejected) by parents and students. Those unhappy with the performance of certain charter schools or policies they adopt (such as not-always-popular remote learning!) have more freedom to seek education elsewhere than those who live where there are few options. That means families can gravitate to learning environments that better suit their preferences. As a result, people tend to be happier with charter schools than with district schools.

In the latest monthly poll for EdChoice by Morning Consult, 92 percent of charter-school parents report being very or somewhat satisfied with their children’s experiences. Homeschooling parents report 90 percent satisfaction, while private schools come in at 88 percent. District-school parents bring up the rear at 76 percent. Admittedly, three-quarters of district-school parents being happy with their choice isn’t terrible, but that option consistently lags the levels of satisfaction reported by those who select their children’s learning environment. Being free to pick what’s right for your kids, and reject what isn’t, obviously has a payoff.

Nationally, while enrollment in traditional public schools has plummeted, charter schools boomed. “During the 2020-21 school year, charter school enrollment grew 7%, the largest increase in half a decade,” according to the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools. Catholic schools, private schoolshomeschooling, and other approaches are also attracting more takers, even though most states make families pay for district schools (through taxes) in addition to their preferred education options. Many people clearly want to choose where and how their kids learn, to the benefit of approaches including charter schools.

CREDO researchers aren’t shy about the reasons why charter schools were so much quicker to respond to the challenges posed by COVID-19.

“Some schools – charter schools – are allowed to operate with considerable discretion. Even in ‘normal’ times, they have greater control over program design and resource allocation than peer district schools,” notes the CREDO report. “In return, they are expected to direct their resources in ways that result in strong student results or potentially face consequences. Under these parameters, their response to COVID is a natural experiment in how leaders and educators embrace the flexibility granted to them so that schooling continues and students are learning.”

That the freedom to make decisions on the ground without waiting for permission from on-high is a good thing shouldn’t be controversial. It’s not even especially important what decisions are made, and if they’re at variance with choices elsewhere, so long as people can pick what’s right for them. Charter schools thrived during the pandemic because they were able to make choices that appealed to like-minded families while leaving others free to seek education options that better suited their needs.

The post Flexibility Gave Charter Schools an Edge During the Pandemic appeared first on Reason.com.

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In Historic Breach With Neutrality, Switzerland Joins EU In Sanctions On Russia

In Historic Breach With Neutrality, Switzerland Joins EU In Sanctions On Russia

Switzerland’s historic neutrality is no longer: moments ago Reuters reported that the Swiss government had joined the EU in adopting sanctions on Russia, freezing assets of targeted companies and people effective immediately:

  • SWISS GOVERNMENT SAYS ADOPTS EU SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA
  • SWISS GOVERNMENT SAYS FREEZES ASSETS OF TARGETED PEOPLE AND COMPANIES EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
  • SWISS GOVERNMENT SAYS ADOPTS FINANCIAL SANCTIONS AGAINST PRESIDENT PUTIN AND OTHER RUSSIAN OFFICIALS

Swiss President Ignazio Cassis said that adopting the EU sanctions against Russia was a unique, difficult step that required careful consideration. Previously, on Sunday, he said that Switzerland’s neutrality must be preserved and it stood ready to offer its good offices for diplomacy if talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials on the Belarusian border do not succeed, for example by reaching an armistice.

“That does not prevent us from calling a spade a spade,” he said.

Switzerland had walked a tortuous line between showing solidarity with the West and maintaining its traditional neutrality that the government says could make it a potential mediator. But it faces growing pressure to side clearly with the West against Moscow and adopt punitive European Union sanctions. The government had so far said only that it will not let Switzerland be used as a platform to circumvent EU sanctions.

In the biggest peace march in decades, around 20,000 people demonstrated in the capital Bern on Saturday to support Ukraine, some booing the government over its cautious policy.

Cassis said on Sunday that Ukrainians fleeing the conflict would be welcome “for a transitional period, which we hope will be as short a possible.”

Justice Minister Karin Keller-Sutter said separately that Switzerland was ready to take in those who need protection and also to support the neighbouring countries affected. “We will not leave people in the lurch,” she said.

The Swiss government last week amended its watchlist to include 363 individuals and four companies that the EU had put on its sanctions list to punish Moscow.

Russians held nearly 10.4 billion Swiss francs ($11.24 billion) in Switzerland in 2020, Swiss National Bank data show.

 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 02/28/2022 – 08:41

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Every Bear Market Is Different… And The Same

Every Bear Market Is Different… And The Same

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

A March stock market rally is likely, but does that mean the risk of a bear market is over?

So far, 2022 has been challenging for investors who got lulled into complacency since the March 2020 lows. The massive deluge of liquidity flooded financial markets, providing an effortless trading environment for inexperienced investors.

In “Retail Investors Are Long On Confidence,” we quoted Jason Zweig:

“As surely as the sun rises in the east, promoters will be touting these returns. A small-stock fund manager who’s up 40% over the past year can hype that gain in ads and on social media; 40% is a big, beautiful number! Only by reading the fine print would you be reminded that a 40% return underperformed the average by more than 10 percentage points.

You knew I would tell you this but I’m saying it anyway. These returns won’t last indefinitely. Enjoy them while they last, but you’d be crazy to count on such giant gains becoming common.

At times like these, grounding yourself in realistic expectations is more important than ever. Working in the garden also reminds me that market cycles, like nature’s seasons, can be extended — but not rescinded.”

The biggest problem for most young investors is the lack of research on the stocks they buy. They are only buying them “because they were going up.”

However, as Jason notes, when the “season does change,” the “fundamentals” will matter, and they tend to matter a lot. Such is something that most won’t learn from “social media” influencers.

As of late, with stimulus checks gone and many of the high flying stocks of the last two years decimated, the “season has certainly seemed to change.”

But after two months of bearish action, could a March stock market rally be in the offing?

March Stock Markets Tend To Be Positve

Thispast weekend’s newsletter noted thatthe market had become oversold and well extended below the 50-dma.

“With the market closing firmly higher on Friday, a short-term buy signal, and not overbought yet, there are three rally targets for the market currently:”

  • The 200-dma (red line)

  • The current downtrend line; and,

  • The 50-dma (black line)

Furthermore, along with a conducive technical backdrop, the historical March stock market tendencies are also supportive. As shown, the month of March, which falls within the “seasonally strong” period of the year, has a win rate of 57%.

While not the strongest month of the seasonally strong period, after two months of selling, the odds increase for a more positive month heading into the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on March 15-16th.

If the Fed is more “doveish” in its positioning, the markets are likely to respond positively, given the recent increase in geopolitical risk.

Furthermore, the selloff since January was institutional positioning ahead of a potentially more aggressive Federal Reserve. Those actions created a buildup of negative positioning in the financial markets that could provide the “fuel” for a reasonably sharp rebound.

Hedging For A Crash That Didn’t Come

In the latest “tactical flow-of-funds” report from Goldman Sachs, several graphs show this buildup of negative positioning.

Put Monetization (large unwinds) which created net delta to buy and rich volatility fade strategies. I do not say this often. I think that investors were properly hedged up this time around for a market correction. The “event” was clearing in the sense that it catalyzed unwinds of hedges. We have been averaging $1 Trillion worth of puts per day, the largest notional on record.

We were very close to a “Markets in Turmoil” program on CNBC.

A historically significant amount of puts outstanding provides fuel for a March stock rally as positioning gets reversed. Furthermore, one of the primary supports of the market since 2011, and accounting for 40% of the rally since then, remains corporate share buybacks.

“Corporates have dry powder. 80% of the corporate window is open. Color from our buybacks desk is the number of active programs is currently 2x what we normally see. We anticipate activity increasing 15-20% in the next couple of weeks. Repurchase authorizations have moved ahead of last year’s pace. $230bln vs. $218bln YoY. Furthermore, 2021 was the most active year in history with $1.2tln in authorizations.” – GS Securities Division, Neil Kearns.

Despite the recent negative headlines, net global inflows continue to remain strong. Such a surge is unprecedented, and the eventual reversal will be problematic.

However, one of the best indicators for a rally is negative investor sentiment which is at the lowest levels since the markets wrestled with Brexit in 2016.

Does the current backdrop of a technically oversold market and highly negative sentiment and positioning mean the risk of a “bear market” is gone?

The Risk Of A Bear Market Remains

As noted, the data suggests that we could see a reasonably strong rally over the next few weeks, the risk of a more protected corrective cycle remains. Such is due to the many headwinds still facing a market that remains overvalued by many measures.

  • Geopolitical risk from Russia and Ukraine

  • Rising interest rates

  • Surging inflationary pressures

  • Economic growth slowing

  • Profit margins under pressure

  • A disappointment in earnings growth

  • Reversal of monetary liqudity

  • Surging oil pricesand, of course,

  • The Fed

Notably, the many tailwinds that supported the rapid rise in the markets from 2020 to the present are reversing. As shown, the roughly 120% advance from the March lows should not be surprising given the massive liquidity surge from the Government.

However, the most considerable risk to the markets remains the Fed.

Despite the recent correction, the markets remain convinced the Fed will hike a minimum of four times in 2022 and further in 2023. At the same time, the liquidity support from ongoing “Quantitative Easing” programs will reverse.

While investors hope the Fed will create a “soft landing” in the economy and markets, history clearly shows a track record of poor outcomes.

Every Bear Market Is The Same

The first few rate hikes typically do not disrupt markets. Such is because it takes roughly 9-months for changes to monetary policy to filter into the economy.

The mistake that investors make is assuming that since the first couple of rate hikes didn’t crash the market, “this time is different.”

As noted, with the markets negatively positioned, the markets may seem to “ignore” initial rate hikes. However, they likely won’t ignore tighter policy for very long.

Every bear market in history has an initial decline, a reflexive rally, then a protracted decline which reverts market excesses. Investors never know where they are in the process until the rally’s completion from the initial fall.

The deviation of the market due to Fed stimulus was so extended above long-term trends in March 2020 the depth of that “correction” was not surprising. 

Given that the current deviation dwarfs all others, the following “bear market” will likely be equally deep.

As we concluded this past weekend’s newsletter:

“If you didn’t like the decline in the market in January and February, we suggest using any rally [in March] towards the 200- and 50-day moving averages to further reduce risk and rebalance allocations.”

The financial markets will do one of two things to your future financial security:

  1. If you treat the financial markets as a tool to adjust your current savings for inflation over time, the markets will KEEP you wealthy. 
  2. However, if you try and use the markets to MAKE you wealthy, your capital will shift to those in the first category.

Ample warning signs suggest the risks of having excessive equity exposure to the market outweigh the potential for reward.

At least for now.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 02/28/2022 – 08:25

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Oil Prices ‘Dip’ On IEA SPR Release, OPEC+ Output Headlines

Oil Prices ‘Dip’ On IEA SPR Release, OPEC+ Output Headlines

As expected, OPEC+ delegate sources are being reported as confirming the cartel will boost output by 400k bbl/day. Additionally, it is being reported that IEA members have agreed to release 70 million barrels from their strategic stockpiles in an effort to balance the extreme tightness (seen in the record backwardation) in the energy markets, which has been exacerbated by Russian sanction threats.

The reaction was muted to say the least as WTI dipped less than $1…

At current levels, US gas prices will be north of $3.70 within a week on their way to $4 soon…

As a reminder, gas prices have done nothing but rise, despite the relative collapse in the US SPR…

So what will be different this time?

Tyler Durden
Mon, 02/28/2022 – 08:10

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Futures Bounce From Overnight Lows As New Peace Talks Begin

Futures Bounce From Overnight Lows As New Peace Talks Begin

Global stocks and US futures tumbled on Monday, although they were well off their worst levels as a fresh round of ceasefire talks kicked off on Monday morning offering a glimmer of hope that hostilities will end; sovereign bonds rallied and commodities surged amid heightened uncertainty after a new wave of sanctions against Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.

March contracts on the S&P 500 Index declined as much as 2.9% before trimming losses to 1%, or down 43 points as of 745 a.m. in New York. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow were each down 1.4%. European stocks also recovered from an earlier as banks with exposure to Russia led declines, while utilities and defense stocks gained. Oil, natural gas, wheat and palladium jumped, as Brent crude soared to about $103 a barrel on fears of commodity-supply disruptions. Rallies in the dollar, gold and Treasuries underlined the demand for havens.

Over the weekend, Western nations agreed on new sanctions to further isolate Russia, by seeking to prevent its central bank from using foreign reserves to blunt sanctions and excluding some Russian lenders from the SWIFT messaging system that underpins trillions of dollars worth of transactions. Below is a summary of the biggest Russian updates over the past 24 hours:

  • Russian negotiator at the Ukrainian discussions says Russia is interested in coming to an agreement with Ukraine as soon as possible, via Ifx.
  • Russian President Putin ordered to place Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces on high alert citing aggressive statements by NATO leaders and severe economic sanctions against Moscow, according to Sky News.
  • Kremlin declines to elaborate on Russian President Putin’s decision on “special regime” for nuclear forces; declines to comment on the risk of confrontation between Russian and NATO; weapons supplies to Ukraine is hostile towards Russia.
  • Russia was reportedly struggling to take Kyiv and Kharkiv but was pushing across the Black Sea coast, while Maxar satellite imagery showed a large convoy of Russian ground forces and tanks are moving towards Kyiv, according to Reuters.
  • Russia’s Medvedev said diplomatic relations are not especially needed anymore and that it is time to padlock the embassies; subsequently, Russia is not considering recalling ambassadors from European nations, according to Russian news outlet IFX.
  • Russian Defence Ministry has declared full control over the airspace of Ukraine, via an envoy cited by Sky News Arabia.
  • US official said Belarus is preparing to join the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to Washington Post.
  • Israeli PM Bennet spoke with Russian President Putin in which he proposed that Israel mediate the Russian-Ukraine crisis and stated that President Putin was “open” to mediate with Ukraine, according to an Israeli official.
  • Websites belonging to Tass, Izvestia, Fontaka, RBC and Kommersant have been hacked, via MiddleEastEye’s Soylu.

“The news flow on the conflict will dominate short-term market fluctuations,” said Patrick Moonen, principal strategist of multi-asset at NN Investment Partners. “We expect a period of high volatility and higher equity risk premia. Commodity prices are the main transmission channel and the risk of supply disruptions will keep these high. This can lead to sustained high inflation numbers and can weigh on the growth outlook.”

Big U.S. tech stocks are lower in premarket trading (iPhone maker Apple -1.5%, chipmaker Nvidia -2.1%, Facebook owner Meta Platforms -1.2%, Microsoft -1.3%, electric vehicle maker Tesla -1.7%), while defense names including Lockheed Martin and Raytheon are set to climb as European defense stocks jumped after Germany said it will increase defense spending. Shares in Yandex, which operates a search engine and web portal in Russia, fell as much as 31% in premarket.

Bank stocks tumbled in premarket trading Monday as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falls to its lowest level in nearly a month amid a broader move away from risk assets, after Western nations increased sanctions on Russia. All of the biggest U.S. bank stocks are lower this morning with Morgan Stanley sliding 2.7%, JPMorgan dropping 2.4%, Citigroup slipping 2.4%, Bank of America dropping 2.3%, Goldman Sachs falling 2.2% and Wells Fargo losing 2%.

“With the recent increase in geopolitical risk, we believe market levels could remain under pressure and capital markets activity may remain volatile, which could negatively impact the near-term revenue outlook for Universal banks including Trust banks,” KBW analysts including Chris McGratty and David Konrad wrote in a note.

“KBW remains constructive on U.S. financials, but the yield curve and credit spreads represent potential negative risk factors that could be amplified if geopolitical tensions accelerate and are worse than the market anticipates,” they added.

Shares of cybersecurity software companies could advance as the removal of some Russia banks from the SWIFT financial messaging system, along with sanctions on Russia’s central bank, will likely result in a significant ramp-up of cyber warfare targeting U.S. and Europe enterprises and government agencies, analysts say.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 is down 0.9%, paring a much bigger earlier loss and still much higher than last week’s lows, with banks, autos and insurance the worst performing sectors. BP Plc shares dropped after its decision to offload its stake in Russia’s Rosneft. Even though stock futures are well off their overnight lows, the early-morning risk-off mood in European markets is clear: Russia is and will be the focus of investor attention. As Bloomberg notes, German yields are sharply lower at the front end, in line with Treasuries, despite the region’s inflation woes being emphasized by consumer prices in Spain rising faster than forecast in February. Italian stocks are lagging, while the FTSE 100 is outperforming, helped by defense stock BAE. S&P 500 futures are down but near session highs.

In rates, Treasuries remained richer across the curve, although futures are off best levels of the day, after opening gap higher following weekend announcements of new sanctions against Russia for the invasion of Ukraine. Yields lower by 3bp to 7bp across the curve led by front-end, steepening 2s10s spread by more than 2bp, 5s30s more than 3bp on the day; 10-year ~1.92% after dropping as low as 1.885% in early Asia session. Funding stress remains priced into front-end with March eurodollars lower and front-month FRA/OIS wider. The first-month FRA/OIS remains wider by 5.5bp on the day at ~19bp after opening as high as 21bp; the Mar22/Jun22 eurodollar futures spread is flatter by 7bp.

Meanwhile, the flight-to-quality across the front-end has further eroded rate-hike premium in overnight swaps; around 28bp remains priced into the March FOMC meeting (vs 31bp Friday), 145bp into December (vs 155bp prior). Odds of a 50bps rate hike are around 15%, after dropping as low as 9% overnight.  German yields are sharply lower at the front end, in line with Treasuries, despite the region’s inflation woes being emphasized by consumer prices in Spain rising faster than forecast in February.

In FX, the dollar has rallied in haven demand. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped as much as 0.7% and the greenback rose against all its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Swiss franc and yen, while Treasuries gained after Western nations agreed to penalize Russia’s central bank and exclude some of the country’s banks from the SWIFT messaging system. The trading session calmed down slightly after an initial shock by the scale of sanctions on Russia that aim to cripple the country’s financial system and its central bank.

The ruble has somewhat calmed down, with the onshore trading at 99 per dollar after the Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate to the highest in almost two decades and imposed some controls on the flow of capital. The ruble lost a third of its value in offshore markets at one point on Monday, plunging as low as 109 as the cost of insuring the government debt signaled a 56% probability of default.

The euro slipped below $1.12 falling on worries about risks for Europe’s economy, which relies on Russian energy.  Euro hedging costs remain underpriced on a relative basis even as they extend their recent advance after Western nations escalate sanctions on Russia. cost of converting euro payments into dollars using three-month cross-currency basis swaps soars at the European open as demand for the greenback surged. Sweden’s krona was the worst G-10 performer, dropping by as much as 2.5% against the dollar before paring. Japan’s bond volatility surged to a one-year high as worsening tensions over Ukraine drove up oil prices and boosted inflationary pressures. The yen was steady versus the dollar.

In commodities, crude futures advance. WTI drifts 5.3% higher to trade ~$96. Brent rises 5.2% at $103. Spot gold rises roughly $15 to trade above $1,900/oz. Most base metals trade in the green; LME aluminum outperforms peers. European natural gas surged.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1% to 4,337.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.1% to 446.23
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.17%
  • Euro down 0.9% to $1.1171
  • Brent Futures up 4.6% to $102.47/bbl
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 181.89
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 595.31
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 26,526.82
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,886.93
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 22,713.02
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,462.31
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 56,312.72
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,049.13
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,699.18
  • Brent Futures up 4.6% to $102.47/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,899.80
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.59% to 97.19

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Bank of Russia raised the key rate to 20% from 9.5% after the ruble fell by as much as 29% against the greenback after the new sanctions were imposed on the nation. Starting Feb. 28, Russian companies will be obliged to sell 80% of their FX-denominated revenue, Finance Ministry says in emailed statement

  • Ukraine said a delegation led by its defense minister had arrived at the border with Belarus for talks with Russian officials aimed at ending a conflict that’s triggered sanctions against Moscow and sent the ruble into a tailspin

  • Gold has replaced Treasuries as the haven of choice as the conflict in Ukraine worsens, with surging oil prices diminishing the appeal of bonds

  • ‘Too risky to deal in’ is the mantra from foreign-exchange to equities trading floors as investors step back from dealing with Russian assets

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded cautiously after Russian President Putin ordered nuclear forces to be placed on high alert and with the west imposing further sanctions such as excluding some Russian banks from SWIFT and restrictions targeting CBR’s international reserves. ASX 200 shrugged off early weakness, helped by the commodity-related sectors and stronger than expected Retail Sales.
Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with pressure from the haven flows into JPY. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded mixed with Hong Kong dragged lower by large tech and virus concerns with a lockdown for the city said to not be ruled out during mass COVID testing, while losses in the mainland were limited after the PBoC continued its firm liquidity effort and China’s Politburo reiterated to step-up implementation of macro policies to stabilise the economy

Top Asian News

  • Ukraine Crisis Risks Pushing Sri Lanka Closer to Default
  • Sunac Said In Talk to Sell Two Projects to Chinese AMC: REDD
  • Chinese Developers’ Dollar Bond Woes Deepen: Evergrande Update
  • Biocon Shares Tumble on $3.3 Billion Viatris Biosimilars Deal

European bourses are pressured amid geopolticial tensions and SWIFT sanctions, Euro Stoxx 50 -3.0%; albeit, bourses are off worst levels as negotiations commence. Sectors has Banks as the laggard given SWIFT restrictions while Energy has been torn between benchmark pricing and BP exiting Rosneft. US futures are, in-fitting with European comparables, subdued but off worst levels, ES -1.4%.

Top European News

  • CRH to Sell Unit to KPS for $3.8b Enterprise Value: M&A Snapshot
  • Europe Autos Fall; Firms With Most Russia Exposure Lead Declines
  • Russia, Belarus Central Banks Hike Interest Rates: Map
  • Yandex Tumbles in U.S. as Russian Companies Come Under Pressure

In FX:

  • Rouble plunges to fresh all time low before drastic CBR intervention via a hike in key rate to 20% from 9.5% – Usd /Rub off 100.0000+ peaks, but still elevated.
  • Renminbi rallies towards record peak vs Dollar and remains in demand as a regional safe haven even though major state-owned Chinese banks reportedly bought USD/Cny at 6.3100.
  • Buck bid elsewhere, but off best levels as DXY slips below the 97.000 handle.
  • Euro underperforming on Russia-Ukraine headwinds, while Franc outperforms unchecked by official selling it seems – Eur/Usd capped at 1.1200, Usd/Chf and Eur/Chf eyeing 0.9200 and 1.0300 respectively.
  • Aussie gets some retail therapy ahead of RBA policy meeting, Aud/Usd holding around 0.7200
  • Major Chinese state-owned banks seen buying USD at around 6.31 in USD/CNY, according to Reuters sources.

In commodities, WTI and Brent are bolstered amid the geopoltical tensions, though off best levels as negotiations commenced and Brent May’22 fails to hold onto USD 100/bbl. OPEC+ revised its 2022 oil market surplus forecast down to 1.1mln bpd from 1.3mln bpd and it missed oil output targets by 972k bpd in Jan vs. 824k bpd in December, according to the JTC. BP (BP/ LN) is to exit its 20% shareholding in Russian oil major Rosneft and will write down as much as USD 25bln at the end of Q1 as a result of its Rosneft exit. North Sea Troll crude oil stream is to load 6 cargoes in April vs. 7 planned in March, according to Reuters sources. UK Ministers are said to be preparing to release over 1mln barrels of the UK’s strategic oil reserve to tackle rising fuel prices, according to The Times. Spot gold is bid alongside haven-FX, regaining the USD 1900/oz mark though remains capped by overnight highs at 1931/oz. China state planner will step up supervision of iron spot and futures markets to ensure stable market operation, while it will hold a meeting with the market regulator and the Dalian exchange to look into irregular trading in iron ore spot and futures markets. Traders warned they are unlikely to make wheat offers from the Black Sea region at Monday’s Egyptian buying tender, according to Bloomberg.

US Event calendar

  • 8:30am: Jan. Retail Inventories MoM, prior 4.4%
  • 8:30am: Jan. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$99.2b, prior -$101b, revised -$100.5b
  • 8:30am: Jan. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.2%, prior 2.2%
  • 9:45am: Feb. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 62.0, prior 65.2
  • 10:30am: Feb. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 3.5, prior 2.0

Tyler Durden
Mon, 02/28/2022 – 08:09

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Discrimination Between Muslim Prisoners’ Kufis and Jewish Prisoners’ Yarmulkes Is Unconstitutional

From Moore v. Washington, decided Wednesday by Judge George Caram Steeh (E.D. Mich.):

Plaintiff John Patrick Moore, II is in the custody of the Michigan Department of Corrections (“MDOC”)…. Moore is a devout, practicing Sunni Muslim who alleges violations of his religious rights due to MDOC policies that limit his ability to wear a kufi in the prison. {The MDOC changed their policy in February 2021 and now permits male Muslims to always wear a kufi.} …

The magistrate judge found that existing legal precedent would have given officials ample warning that prohibiting Muslim prisoners from wearing their kufi at all times would violate their constitutional rights. In reaching this conclusion, the court looked to Sixth Circuit caselaw which holds that the Free Exercise Clause of the First Amendment prohibits prison regulations that infringe on prisoners’ sincerely held beliefs “without any valid penological justification.”

To be permissible under the First Amendment, MDOC’s regulation must have had a “valid, rational connection” to a “legitimate governmental interest,” and “the governmental objective must be a legitimate and neutral one.” Turner v. Safley (1987) (citation and quotation marks omitted). Defendants relied on Adrian Dirschell, the current special activities coordinator of MDOC, who testified that he did not believe that Islamic law required followers to always wear a kufi, that kufis and yarmulkes were “very similar,” that “a lot of times you can’t tell the difference,” and that there was no distinguishable security concern between the two headgear. The Sixth Circuit holds that it is the sincere religious belief of the individual that determines what is required by that religion, and not what MDOC thinks is required by that religion.

As for defendants’ legitimate penological interest in support of the policy, MDOC Deputy Director of Correctional Facilities Administration, Jeremy Bush, testified that any time a prisoner adds a layer of clothing it presents an opportunity for the prisoner to conceal contraband. The magistrate discounted this evidence because Bush acknowledged he did not know much about kufis and knew nothing about MDOC’s reasoning for limiting when they could be worn. On the other hand, defendant Campbell, the ARF warden, denied that discussions about the limitation on wearing kufis were about hiding contraband. There was further testimony from MDOC officials that kufis and yarmulkes are “very similar” and that there was no distinguishable security concern between the two headgear. Defendants have not shown a legitimate penological interest in overcoming Moore’s sincerely held religious belief.

Next, defendants argue that the law was not clearly established prior to February 22, 2021 that prisoners had a right to always wear a kufi. The relevant analysis is whether defendants can proffer a legitimate penological interest for restricting Moore’s right to always wea a kufi. As discussed above, defendant’s penological reason proffered for treating Muslims’ and Jews’ headgear differently is not sufficiently supported for the Court to conclude that defendants did not violate Moore’s constitutional rights….

[As to the Equal Protection Clause, o]nce again, defendants rely on their understanding of Muslim law and on their alleged rational penological reason to support a good faith basis for treating Muslims’ and Jews’ headgear differently. However, courts “treat as presumptively invidious those classifications that disadvantage a ‘suspect class,’ or that impinge upon the exercise of a ‘fundamental right.'” The policy at issue made a facially discriminatory distinction between Jewish men, who could wear their religious head coverings at all time, and Muslim men, who could wear a kufi only in their cells or around religious activities….

The post Discrimination Between Muslim Prisoners' Kufis and Jewish Prisoners' Yarmulkes Is Unconstitutional appeared first on Reason.com.

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Harlan Institute-Ashbrook Virtual Supreme Court Round of 8

The topic for the 10th Annual Harlan InstituteAshbrook Virtual Supreme Court competition is NYS Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen. This past weekend, the top eight teams of high school students presented oral arguments. Truly, these high school students could compete in any law school moot court competition, and in some federal courts of appeals. The Round of 4 will be held in two weeks.

Round of 8 Match #1

Team 8882 v. Team 8889

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7HZJtneC6Y

 

Round of 8 Match #2

Team 8478 v. Team 9135

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgQdcruNLG8

 

Round of 8 Match #3

Team 8955 v. Team 9129

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7J4qnvL2dI

 

Round of 8 Match #4

Team 8673 v. Team 8886

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14LhDoLaszE

 

The post Harlan Institute-Ashbrook Virtual Supreme Court Round of 8 appeared first on Reason.com.

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Discrimination Between Muslim Prisoners’ Kufis and Jewish Prisoners’ Yarmulkes Is Unconstitutional

From Moore v. Washington, decided Wednesday by Judge George Caram Steeh (E.D. Mich.):

Plaintiff John Patrick Moore, II is in the custody of the Michigan Department of Corrections (“MDOC”)…. Moore is a devout, practicing Sunni Muslim who alleges violations of his religious rights due to MDOC policies that limit his ability to wear a kufi in the prison. {The MDOC changed their policy in February 2021 and now permits male Muslims to always wear a kufi.} …

The magistrate judge found that existing legal precedent would have given officials ample warning that prohibiting Muslim prisoners from wearing their kufi at all times would violate their constitutional rights. In reaching this conclusion, the court looked to Sixth Circuit caselaw which holds that the Free Exercise Clause of the First Amendment prohibits prison regulations that infringe on prisoners’ sincerely held beliefs “without any valid penological justification.”

To be permissible under the First Amendment, MDOC’s regulation must have had a “valid, rational connection” to a “legitimate governmental interest,” and “the governmental objective must be a legitimate and neutral one.” Turner v. Safley (1987) (citation and quotation marks omitted). Defendants relied on Adrian Dirschell, the current special activities coordinator of MDOC, who testified that he did not believe that Islamic law required followers to always wear a kufi, that kufis and yarmulkes were “very similar,” that “a lot of times you can’t tell the difference,” and that there was no distinguishable security concern between the two headgear. The Sixth Circuit holds that it is the sincere religious belief of the individual that determines what is required by that religion, and not what MDOC thinks is required by that religion.

As for defendants’ legitimate penological interest in support of the policy, MDOC Deputy Director of Correctional Facilities Administration, Jeremy Bush, testified that any time a prisoner adds a layer of clothing it presents an opportunity for the prisoner to conceal contraband. The magistrate discounted this evidence because Bush acknowledged he did not know much about kufis and knew nothing about MDOC’s reasoning for limiting when they could be worn. On the other hand, defendant Campbell, the ARF warden, denied that discussions about the limitation on wearing kufis were about hiding contraband. There was further testimony from MDOC officials that kufis and yarmulkes are “very similar” and that there was no distinguishable security concern between the two headgear. Defendants have not shown a legitimate penological interest in overcoming Moore’s sincerely held religious belief.

Next, defendants argue that the law was not clearly established prior to February 22, 2021 that prisoners had a right to always wear a kufi. The relevant analysis is whether defendants can proffer a legitimate penological interest for restricting Moore’s right to always wea a kufi. As discussed above, defendant’s penological reason proffered for treating Muslims’ and Jews’ headgear differently is not sufficiently supported for the Court to conclude that defendants did not violate Moore’s constitutional rights….

[As to the Equal Protection Clause, o]nce again, defendants rely on their understanding of Muslim law and on their alleged rational penological reason to support a good faith basis for treating Muslims’ and Jews’ headgear differently. However, courts “treat as presumptively invidious those classifications that disadvantage a ‘suspect class,’ or that impinge upon the exercise of a ‘fundamental right.'” The policy at issue made a facially discriminatory distinction between Jewish men, who could wear their religious head coverings at all time, and Muslim men, who could wear a kufi only in their cells or around religious activities….

The post Discrimination Between Muslim Prisoners' Kufis and Jewish Prisoners' Yarmulkes Is Unconstitutional appeared first on Reason.com.

from Latest https://ift.tt/4TMaYtD
via IFTTT

Harlan Institute-Ashbrook Virtual Supreme Court Round of 8

The topic for the 10th Annual Harlan InstituteAshbrook Virtual Supreme Court competition is NYS Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen. This past weekend, the top eight teams of high school students presented oral arguments. Truly, these high school students could compete in any law school moot court competition, and in some federal courts of appeals. The Round of 4 will be held in two weeks.

Round of 8 Match #1

Team 8882 v. Team 8889

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7HZJtneC6Y

 

Round of 8 Match #2

Team 8478 v. Team 9135

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgQdcruNLG8

 

Round of 8 Match #3

Team 8955 v. Team 9129

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7J4qnvL2dI

 

Round of 8 Match #4

Team 8673 v. Team 8886

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14LhDoLaszE

 

The post Harlan Institute-Ashbrook Virtual Supreme Court Round of 8 appeared first on Reason.com.

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The Trials of Rasmea Odeh, Part One — Joining the PFLP 

Many thanks to Eugene for giving me an opportunity to blog about my new book, The Trials of Rasmea Odeh. It is the story of a Palestinian woman who faced two wrenching trials in her lifetime, over forty years apart. The first trial was for the bombing of a Jerusalem supermarket in 1969, which took the lives of two Hebrew University students. She was convicted in that case, partly on the basis of a coerced confession, and sentenced to life in prison. Odeh was released after ten years in a prisoner exchange with the PFLP. She immigrated to the United States in 1996 and became a naturalized citizen in 2005, both times falsely denying that she had ever been convicted of a crime or imprisoned (as well as other false denials on the visa and citizenship applications).

Rasmea Odeh was born in 1947 in the village of Lifta, on the outskirts of Jerusalem. Her family was evacuated to Ramallah in early 1948, shortly before the fighting began between the nascent state of Israel and Arab and Palestinian forces. As refugees, the Odeh family lived for a time in a tent, eventually becoming prosperous enough to buy a house in nearby al-Birah.

Odeh grew up in the West Bank, which was then under Jordanian rule. According to a 1980 interview she gave to a Lebanese journalist, she began attending Communist Party meetings, which were illegal under Jordanian law, as a young teenager.

Israel occupied the West Bank, including Ramallah/al-Birah, in the June 1967 war. Odeh almost immediately became involved in resistance activities, such as organizing and stone throwing, but she had become, in her words, “convinced that military action was more important than social or political work” as the means of Palestinian liberation. She joined the Arab National Movement, a precursor of the PFLP, and undertook clandestine weapons training with arms abandoned by the fleeing Jordanians.

Soon, however, Odeh decided that she could best serve the movement by attending medical school in Lebanon. She obtained an exit permit from the Israeli military government and left for Beirut that fall. In fact, she had a dual agenda. With assistance from her contacts in the ANM, she arranged to meet with Dr. Wadi Haddad, a Palestinian physician who was then, together with Dr. George Habash, in the process of founding the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.

Odeh became one of the PFLP’s early West Bank recruits. She returned home at the end of the academic year, traveling through Jordan, where she met with other PFLP operatives. Back in Ramallah, she continued her clandestine activities, which included preparations for “military operations” that her accomplices would carry out in the late winter of 1969.

Unbeknownst to Odeh, Israeli intelligence operatives were aware of her meetings with Haddad in Beirut and guerrilla leaders in Amman. She was under scrutiny from the time she returned to Ramallah from Lebanon, making her a logical suspect when a bomb ripped through the Jerusalem Supersol, the largest supermarket in Israel.

The following posts will cover Odeh’s apprehension and trial in Israel, her arrest in the U.S. for immigration fraud, the rallying of American progressives to her defense, and the prosecution and defense cases at her U.S. criminal trial.

The post The Trials of Rasmea Odeh, Part One — Joining the PFLP  appeared first on Reason.com.

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