America’s Post-Pandemic Reopening Is Passing Public Transportation By


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The country is belatedly shedding its last vestigial pandemic policies and practices. Once shuttered public schools are open for in-person instruction everywhere. Customers are flocking back to restaurants free from capacity restrictions and mandatory vaccine checks. Attendance at concerts and theme parks is booming.

But public transportation remains a rare exception to the opening of America. A federal mask requirement for riders remains firmly in place and ridership is stuck at a terminally depressed fraction of its pre-pandemic levels.

Subway ridership in New York City, America’s transit capital, is about half of where it was pre-pandemic. Rail ridership in Washington D.C. remains at levels not seen since the late 1970s, when the system had about a third of its current number of stations. BART, which services the San Francisco Bay Area, is patting itself on the back for seeing ridership rise to 30 percent of 2019 levels.

One question facing the industry is whether it should ditch its mask requirements as a way of saving resources and winning back a few straphangers or keep them around forever.

In the former camp is a coalition of 21 mostly Republican state attorneys general who filed a lawsuit today aimed at overturning the Biden Administration’s mask mandate for travels aboard airplanes and public transportation.

“Even lockdown States like California have announced the end of their mask mandates. Still, the CDC unabashedly leaves its mandate intact,” reads the complaint filed in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida.

The lawsuit goes on to argue that the mask mandate imposed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is an “arbitrary and capricious” measure that violates numerous federal laws as well as the U.S. Constitution. It demands that the mask mandate be declared unlawful and that the federal government be forbidden from enforcing it.

The transit industry itself has also urged the Biden administration to reconsider masking requirements. Back in early March, the American Public Transportation Association asked that the CDC masking order not be extended beyond its prior March 18 expiration date.

“We know that the Administration is resolute in its efforts to lead the country back to normality and a path to economic recovery. Ceasing the federal mask mandate will support those efforts,” wrote American Public Transportation Association President Paul P. Skoutelas in a March 3 letter to the Biden administration asking that the CDC order be allowed to expire on March 18 as scheduled.

Not everyone is so keen to let mask mandates for travelers go. The Biden administration, contra APTA’s urging, is keeping its mask order in effect until at least April 18.

Writing at Bloomberg today, columnist Justin Fox suggests we go further. While shying away from mandates, he suggests agencies and individual citizens vigorously support a social norm of mask-wearing on public transit.

“In general I’m all for getting back to normal as we figure out how to live with Covid-19,” Fox writes, saying he has returned to the office, restaurants, and shaking hands. Nevertheless, he says “I’d be happy to keep wearing masks on the bus and subway pretty much forever, and would really like it if lots of other people did, too.”

Fox suggests that the minor cost of wearing a mask on a short bus or train ride is worth the modest benefit they might provide in stopping COVID-19 as well as other transmissible viruses like the cold and the flu.

That’s silly. People obviously don’t ride public transit just to ride it. They’re trying to get from somewhere to somewhere. If masks aren’t being worn at one’s origin or destination, their value in suppressing disease for the brief time you’re in transit is probably close to zero.

In New York City, solitary motorists likely did more to drive the early spread of COVID-19 than subway riders. That’s because it matters more where you’re going than how you get there.

The cost of wearing a mask on public transit also increases if nowhere else requires or encourages you to wear one. It’s less likely you’ll remember your mask for the bus and more likely you’ll find it conspicuous and irritating that you put one on once you get there.

This is probably one reason that people’s compliance with mask-wearing on New York’s buses and trains is in free fall, as Fox acknowledges in his column.

Fox suggests a number of other reasons for wearing masks on transit outside of disease prevention. Having one environment where people have to wear masks constantly will shore up demand for the mask industry, meaning it will be ready to meet the demand of the next pandemic, he says. Having riders cover their faces will also stop them eating (which is already against the rules) or talking (which is annoying), he continues.

The first point is hardly convincing. Pre-pandemic, about 5 percent of workers commute via transit. Even if all those workers started taking transit again and all wore their masks every time they did, they wouldn’t sustain production capacity at a level necessary to meet demand during the next pandemic.

(Getting rid of federal regulations on new mask-making facilities would probably be an easier way of ramping up mask production.)

Meanwhile, APTA specifically cites the costs and hassle of enforcing mask mandates as a reason to get rid of them. They clearly don’t think they’re some magic compliance tool that gets people to follow all the other rules as well.

Again, Fox argues for a permanent masking norm on public transit, not mandates. He suggests transit agencies run public relations campaigns urging people to wear masks.

If that’s how agencies really want to spend their shrinking pile of farebox revenue, they can. It’s unlikely it’ll do much good.

Almost everyone seems to view masks as a temporary expediency that is no longer necessary. The number of people who think that will only grow as the pandemic continues to fade away. It seems more likely that their preferences about the social norms of mask-wearing will win out in the end.

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Xi’s “Maradona Theory” Of Policy Making Needs Tweak

Xi’s “Maradona Theory” Of Policy Making Needs Tweak

By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and analyst

Five weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European stocks have fully recouped their losses and their U.S. counterparts have done even better. In contrast, benchmarks in mainland China and Hong Kong are sitting on the bottom of the performance-ranking table along with Russia, Sri Lanka and Latvia.

Soothing words from Chinese policy makers have stopped the panic. But it will require decisive actions for markets to dig themselves out of the hole. Simply following the “Maradona Theory” of policy making to manage expectations isn’t enough.

Oil tumbled, equities rallied and inflation expectations ebbed Tuesday as the latest round of Russia-Ukraine talks sparked optimism that there’s a path toward peace. It’s far from certain that a cease-fire is within reach or that sanctions will be rolled back. Still, it seems that risk premium stemming from the war has been fading across markets.

Except, of course, for Chinese equities. The CSI 300 Index remains down about 11% down since the war started. The fear that sanctions against Russia may somehow embroil China may be exaggerated, but rolling lockdowns due to Covid outbreaks also are taking a toll on the economy.

Almost all high-frequency activity data tracked by Nomura point to a worsening slowdown in recent weeks. For instance, the average movie box-office revenue in the week through March 26 was 63% below the year-ago levels. The weekly shipment-to-output ratio for cement was down 54% from a year ago, and weekly new-home sales across 30 cities have halved.

Since Vice Premier Liu He and his colleagues at the Financial Stability and Development Committee vowed to stabilize capital markets two weeks ago, actions to counter the slowdown have been conspicuously missing. It’s as if Beijing is a loyal follower of the “Maradona Theory.”

That theory stems from a speech in 2005, when then-Bank of England Governor Mervyn King cited a spectacular solo goal scored by Diego Maradona at the 1986 World Cup to show how a central bank can reach its goal by simply guiding expectations, without actually moving interest rates. The Argentinian legend dumbfounded five English players to score despite running in a straight line. King’s point was that England’s defense expected Maradona to swerve, so he didn’t have to. Likewise, if investors expect the central bank to adjust policies, markets will react accordingly, and the bank doesn’t have to act.

The crucial element backing the theory is policy makers’ credibility. Managing expectations is part of modern finance. But at this point, the Chinese economy needs Beijing to throw its weight behind its words, including accelerating infrastructure spending and credit growth, easing borrowing costs, and supporting small business affected by lockdowns.

The longer it waits, the more likely Beijing scores an “own goal” instead.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/30/2022 – 17:40

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Daily Briefing: What’s Wrong With the Yen, and Why Is It Important?

Daily Briefing: What’s Wrong With the Yen, and Why Is It Important?

The Japanese yen, long a safe haven, is not reacting to crisis this time around the way it has in the past. In fact, the yen just broke through a key long-term level of technical support and is trading at six-year lows versus the U.S. dollar. But Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continues to defend the Bank of Japan’s yield cap, in place to sustain accommodative monetary policy, despite broader risks to the domestic situation. Our man in Japan, Weston Nakamura, joins Maggie Lake to assess the global implications of the country’s continuing efforts to stimulate growth in the world’s third-largest economy. Then, Maggie welcomes Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to talk about the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, the impact of tighter policy on the housing market, and the employment situation in the U.S. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/36Zk3uw

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/30/2022 – 14:38

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Nathan Rabin: Why Gen X Is Super Media-Literate


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“I am a professional rememberer,” writes Nathan Rabin in The Joy of Trash. “It is my duty to remember not just for my own but for society.”

Rabin is really taking one for the team here, especially since his new book accurately bills itself as the “definitive guide to the very worst of everything.” Among the godawful things he explicates are Academy Award-winning actress Joan Crawford’s bizzare and patently false 1971 lifestyle guide, My Way of Life; the misbegotten Brady Bunch Variety Hour, which improbably included numerous “water ballet” routines along with endless dad jokes; cocaine-addicted movie producer Robert Evans’ 1981 court-ordered, star-studded, anti-drug TV special Get High on Yourself; and the entirety of billionaire Mike Bloomberg’s 2020 presidential candidacy.

Rabin was the headwriter for The A.V. Club for two decades and the inventor of the popular-but-controversial term “Manic Pixie Dreamgirl” to describe a recurring film character who “exists solely in the fevered imaginations of sensitive writer-directors to teach broodingly soulful young men to embrace life and its infinite mysteries and adventures.” He now runs his own website, Nathan Rabin’s Happy Place, where he sifts through all manner of cultural detritus with endless wit and energy. He also co-hosts Travolta/Cage, a podcast about “the greatest actors in history.”

The 45-year-old Rabin talks with Nick Gillespie about how his Gen X roots inform his appreciation for and critique of consumer culture. Kids his age, he explains, learned early on through D.A.R.E. and transparently phony TV shows that adults and other authorities were often lying. Gen X came of age in the 1990s, he says, a time when the belief that technology would make everything perfect was widespread, an optimism severely tested both by the bursting of the tech bubble and the 9/11 attacks. “Irony and satire and comedy,” he says, “can bring light to a very dark situation, and it can be very cathartic being able to laugh at things that you’re not supposed to laugh about or being able to laugh about things that are incredibly dark.”

Rabin also discusses how musician Grimes, who had a widely covered relationship and two children with billionaire Elon Musk, is reclaiming—or perhaps satirizing—the manic pixie dream girl trope and why Weird Al Yankovic, the subject of a good deal of his writing, has had a career far longer than most of the people he parodies.

Watch the video version of this interview here.

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  • Attention, New York City metro-area listeners: Come out on Monday, April 4, to see a live taping of The Reason Interview With Nick Gillespie featuring Columbia neuroscientist Carl Hart, author of Drug Use for Grown-Ups: Chasing Liberty in the Land of Fear. Doors open at 6 p.m. at Caveat Theater and Bar, 21-A Clinton Street in Manhattan’s Lower East Side. Tickets cost $10. Go to reason.com/events for details.

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“Cannibal” Coronal Mass Ejection Detected By NASA, Will Hit Earth Tonight

“Cannibal” Coronal Mass Ejection Detected By NASA, Will Hit Earth Tonight

Powerful geomagnetic storms are set to hit Earth’s magnetic field Wednesday night into early Thursday after the sun ejected nearly 20 solar flares from an Earth-facing single sunspot in recent days. 

The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), a division of NOAA, said a strong geomagnetic storm (rated 3 out of 5) is expected to peak in the early morning hours of Thursday. 

The eruptions on the sun originated Monday from a superactive sunspot called AR2975, expelling as many as 17 flares. SpaceWeather warns “at least two, possibly three, coronal mass ejections (CMEs)” are headed to Earth. 

When one CME slams into Earth’s magnetic field and another one follows, that’s known as a “cannibal CME” and can result in “tangled magnetic fields and compressed plasmas that can spark strong geomagnetic storms” according to SpaceWeather, meaning that the dazzling northern lights will be seen closer to the equator than usual.

“Because these two have merged together or are merging together, that’s often an indication that the CME will be a bit stronger. It’s more stuff coming.

“Also, it means that there’s a better chance that the magnetic field will disturb the Earth’s magnetic field,” said Alex Young, a solar astrophysicist at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Young said this CME activity was also accompanied by a “solar tsunami” (also known as an EIT wave, so named for its discovery using the EUV Imaging Telescope), a shock wave that typically indicates an energetic CME. Satellite data show the shock wave propagating across the sun. –WaPo

Northern light sightings are possible for Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, and Massachusetts. 

SWPC has warned of a “shortwave radio blackout over the Americas.” They pointed to a blackout map that engulfed much of the Eastern Hemisphere. 

None of this should be surprising as Sunspot Cycle 25 has already begun and is expected to be an active one could be terrible news for the digital economy as disruptions sparked by geomagnetic storms create economic damage. Because it’s a “cannibal CME,” more potential energy could spark a rather powerful geomagnetic storm. 

Last month, Elon Musk’s satellite internet service Starlink lost 40 satellites after a geomagnetic storm knocked them out of orbit. The question for Starlink customers is if they can still maintain a downlink during tonight’s storm. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/30/2022 – 17:20

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America’s Post-Pandemic Reopening Is Passing Public Transportation By


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The country is belatedly shedding its last vestigial pandemic policies and practices. Once shuttered public schools are open for in-person instruction everywhere. Customers are flocking back to restaurants free from capacity restrictions and mandatory vaccine checks. Attendance at concerts and theme parks is booming.

But public transportation remains a rare exception to the opening of America. A federal mask requirement for riders remains firmly in place and ridership is stuck at a terminally depressed fraction of its pre-pandemic levels.

Subway ridership in New York City, America’s transit capital, is about half of where it was pre-pandemic. Rail ridership in Washington D.C. remains at levels not seen since the late 1970s, when the system had about a third of its current number of stations. BART, which services the San Francisco Bay Area, is patting itself on the back for seeing ridership rise to 30 percent of 2019 levels.

One question facing the industry is whether it should ditch its mask requirements as a way of saving resources and winning back a few straphangers or keep them around forever.

In the former camp is a coalition of 21 mostly Republican state attorneys general who filed a lawsuit today aimed at overturning the Biden Administration’s mask mandate for travels aboard airplanes and public transportation.

“Even lockdown States like California have announced the end of their mask mandates. Still, the CDC unabashedly leaves its mandate intact,” reads the complaint filed in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida.

The lawsuit goes on to argue that the mask mandate imposed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is an “arbitrary and capricious” measure that violates numerous federal laws as well as the U.S. Constitution. It demands that the mask mandate be declared unlawful and that the federal government be forbidden from enforcing it.

The transit industry itself has also urged the Biden administration to reconsider masking requirements. Back in early March, the American Public Transportation Association asked that the CDC masking order not be extended beyond its prior March 18 expiration date.

“We know that the Administration is resolute in its efforts to lead the country back to normality and a path to economic recovery. Ceasing the federal mask mandate will support those efforts,” wrote American Public Transportation Association President Paul P. Skoutelas in a March 3 letter to the Biden administration asking that the CDC order be allowed to expire on March 18 as scheduled.

Not everyone is so keen to let mask mandates for travelers go. The Biden administration, contra APTA’s urging, is keeping its mask order in effect until at least April 18.

Writing at Bloomberg today, columnist Justin Fox suggests we go further. While shying away from mandates, he suggests agencies and individual citizens vigorously support a social norm of mask-wearing on public transit.

“In general I’m all for getting back to normal as we figure out how to live with Covid-19,” Fox writes, saying he has returned to the office, restaurants, and shaking hands. Nevertheless, he says “I’d be happy to keep wearing masks on the bus and subway pretty much forever, and would really like it if lots of other people did, too.”

Fox suggests that the minor cost of wearing a mask on a short bus or train ride is worth the modest benefit they might provide in stopping COVID-19 as well as other transmissible viruses like the cold and the flu.

That’s silly. People obviously don’t ride public transit just to ride it. They’re trying to get from somewhere to somewhere. If masks aren’t being worn at one’s origin or destination, their value in suppressing disease for the brief time you’re in transit is probably close to zero.

In New York City, solitary motorists likely did more to drive the early spread of COVID-19 than subway riders. That’s because it matters more where you’re going than how you get there.

The cost of wearing a mask on public transit also increases if nowhere else requires or encourages you to wear one. It’s less likely you’ll remember your mask for the bus and more likely you’ll find it conspicuous and irritating that you put one on once you get there.

This is probably one reason that people’s compliance with mask-wearing on New York’s buses and trains is in free fall, as Fox acknowledges in his column.

Fox suggests a number of other reasons for wearing masks on transit outside of disease prevention. Having one environment where people have to wear masks constantly will shore up demand for the mask industry, meaning it will be ready to meet the demand of the next pandemic, he says. Having riders cover their faces will also stop them eating (which is already against the rules) or talking (which is annoying), he continues.

The first point is hardly convincing. Pre-pandemic, about 5 percent of workers commute via transit. Even if all those workers started taking transit again and all wore their masks every time they did, they wouldn’t sustain production capacity at a level necessary to meet demand during the next pandemic.

(Getting rid of federal regulations on new mask-making facilities would probably be an easier way of ramping up mask production.)

Meanwhile, APTA specifically cites the costs and hassle of enforcing mask mandates as a reason to get rid of them. They clearly don’t think they’re some magic compliance tool that gets people to follow all the other rules as well.

Again, Fox argues for a permanent masking norm on public transit, not mandates. He suggests transit agencies run public relations campaigns urging people to wear masks.

If that’s how agencies really want to spend their shrinking pile of farebox revenue, they can. It’s unlikely it’ll do much good.

Almost everyone seems to view masks as a temporary expediency that is no longer necessary. The number of people who think that will only grow as the pandemic continues to fade away. It seems more likely that their preferences about the social norms of mask-wearing will win out in the end.

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The Nones and the Religion Clauses

One of the most discussed trends in American religion at the start of the 21st Century is the so-called “Rise of the Nones,” the sharp increase, since the 1990s, in the percentage of Americans who tell pollsters they have no religious affiliation. Depending on the study, Nones now make up about a quarter to a third of Americans, up from something like six percent a generation ago. The category is quite broad, comprising militant secularists, atheists, agnostics, and the “spiritual but not religious”—persons who reject formal religious affiliation but nonetheless believe in some supernatural power or powers. Often, Nones mix and match elements of different traditions to come up with their own, DIY forms of religion—what one scholar has referred to as a kind of spiritual “bricolage.”

A couple of fascinating new articles by law professors Gregory Sisk (St. Thomas) and Michael Heise (Cornell), available here and here, shed light on the ways Nones have started to influence religion cases in the federal courts. For years, Sisk and Heise have done empirical research on the effect of religious affiliations—the judges’ and the parties’—in such cases. Their new articles contain some surprising, and some not so surprising, observations about the growing impact of the Nones.

First, the not-so-surprising: just as the percentage of Nones in the general population has increased over the past few decades, so has the percentage of Nones among federal judges. The percentage of Nones among judges in Sisk and Heise’s current study, which covers the years 2006-2015, is 11.5%, double the percentage in their first study, which covered the years 1986-1995. Nones are more likely to have been appointed to the bench by Democratic presidents (though Sisk and Heise point out that Nones also number among GOP-appointed judges), which is to be expected, given the comparatively prominent role secular Americans have in the Democratic Party.

In addition, although Sisk and Heise didn’t observe a large effect in their study, Nones on the bench appear comparatively hostile to religious accommodations under the Free Exercise Clause. Perhaps Nones, who reject traditional religion, object to such accommodations as a form of special pleading, especially because—and this a final, unsurprising observation—Nones are comparatively unsuccessful when they themselves seek such accommodations in the courts. Nones have a success rate of 25% in such cases, Sisk and Heise report, while claimants from traditional religions have a success rate of 39%.

Now for the surprising observation. One might expect judges who reject organized religion to favor Establishment Clause claims. For example, one might expect such judges to rule that public displays of religion violate the separation of church and state. But that is not what Sisk and Heise found. In fact, they report, Nones on the bench are significantly less likely than religiously affiliated judges to favor Establishment Clause claims. “Holding other variables constant,” they write, “the predicted probability that a judge without a religious affiliation would approve an Establishment Clause challenge was 24.9 percent,” while judges “with a religious affiliation approved such claims at a 40.0 percent rate.”

What might judges who are Nones view Free Exercise and Establishment Clause claims differently? Sisk and Heise believe that Nones, who are detached generally from organized religion, may be more or less indifferent to public displays of religiosity. Recall that many Nones do not reject religion as such and even adopt elements of traditional faiths as their own. But Nones are very concerned about enforcing non-discrimination laws, which of course have been the focal point for many recent controversies regarding religious accommodations.

This is only one study, of course. But Sisk and Heise’s observations are worth considering. A few years ago, I predicted that the rise of the Nones would portend sharp controversies in our culture and our law. I still think that’s likely to be the case with respect to religious accommodations, and Sisk and Heise’s data seem to bear that out. But, if Sisk and Heise are right, the effect of the Nones on Establishment Clause conflicts may be more irenic. We’ll see.

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The Nones and the Religion Clauses

One of the most discussed trends in American religion at the start of the 21st Century is the so-called “Rise of the Nones,” the sharp increase, since the 1990s, in the percentage of Americans who tell pollsters they have no religious affiliation. Depending on the study, Nones now make up about a quarter to a third of Americans, up from something like six percent a generation ago. The category is quite broad, comprising militant secularists, atheists, agnostics, and the “spiritual but not religious”—persons who reject formal religious affiliation but nonetheless believe in some supernatural power or powers. Often, Nones mix and match elements of different traditions to come up with their own, DIY forms of religion—what one scholar has referred to as a kind of spiritual “bricolage.”

A couple of fascinating new articles by law professors Gregory Sisk (St. Thomas) and Michael Heise (Cornell), available here and here, shed light on the ways Nones have started to influence religion cases in the federal courts. For years, Sisk and Heise have done empirical research on the effect of religious affiliations—the judges’ and the parties’—in such cases. Their new articles contain some surprising, and some not so surprising, observations about the growing impact of the Nones.

First, the not-so-surprising: just as the percentage of Nones in the general population has increased over the past few decades, so has the percentage of Nones among federal judges. The percentage of Nones among judges in Sisk and Heise’s current study, which covers the years 2006-2015, is 11.5%, double the percentage in their first study, which covered the years 1986-1995. Nones are more likely to have been appointed to the bench by Democratic presidents (though Sisk and Heise point out that Nones also number among GOP-appointed judges), which is to be expected, given the comparatively prominent role secular Americans have in the Democratic Party.

In addition, although Sisk and Heise didn’t observe a large effect in their study, Nones on the bench appear comparatively hostile to religious accommodations under the Free Exercise Clause. Perhaps Nones, who reject traditional religion, object to such accommodations as a form of special pleading, especially because—and this a final, unsurprising observation—Nones are comparatively unsuccessful when they themselves seek such accommodations in the courts. Nones have a success rate of 25% in such cases, Sisk and Heise report, while claimants from traditional religions have a success rate of 39%.

Now for the surprising observation. One might expect judges who reject organized religion to favor Establishment Clause claims. For example, one might expect such judges to rule that public displays of religion violate the separation of church and state. But that is not what Sisk and Heise found. In fact, they report, Nones on the bench are significantly less likely than religiously affiliated judges to favor Establishment Clause claims. “Holding other variables constant,” they write, “the predicted probability that a judge without a religious affiliation would approve an Establishment Clause challenge was 24.9 percent,” while judges “with a religious affiliation approved such claims at a 40.0 percent rate.”

What might judges who are Nones view Free Exercise and Establishment Clause claims differently? Sisk and Heise believe that Nones, who are detached generally from organized religion, may be more or less indifferent to public displays of religiosity. Recall that many Nones do not reject religion as such and even adopt elements of traditional faiths as their own. But Nones are very concerned about enforcing non-discrimination laws, which of course have been the focal point for many recent controversies regarding religious accommodations.

This is only one study, of course. But Sisk and Heise’s observations are worth considering. A few years ago, I predicted that the rise of the Nones would portend sharp controversies in our culture and our law. I still think that’s likely to be the case with respect to religious accommodations, and Sisk and Heise’s seem to bear that out But, if Sisk and Heise are right, the effect of the Nones on Establishment Clause conflicts may be more irenic. We’ll see.

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He Spent 28 Years Behind Bars for a Murder He Didn’t Commit and Died Before Seeing Justice


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William Virgil spent almost three decades behind bars for a murder he didn’t commit. That guilty verdict came down after police in Kentucky withheld evidence that may have exonerated him during trial.

Yet Virgil won’t see any justice for that police misconduct, as he is now dead—the government roadblocks to his lawsuit so long and winding that they outlived him.

Such is the case with qualified immunity, the legal doctrine that allows local and state actors to violate your rights without fear of having to pay for it in civil court if the government misbehavior in question has not been “clearly established” in a prior court ruling.

But the cops at the center of Virgil’s story did violate “clearly established” law.

In April of 1987, Retha Welch was found dead in her Newport, Kentucky, home after she was stabbed repeatedly, hit on the head, and raped. Virgil was almost immediately pinpointed as a suspect, having developed a sexual relationship with Welch after Welch’s work in a jail ministry brought the two in contact. Based on circumstantial evidence, he was convicted the following year and was not released until December of 2015 after DNA testing excluded him as the killer.

Whether or not Virgil would have spent time in prison were it not for government malfeasance is impossible to say. But the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit ruled in 2018 that it should have been plainly obvious to any reasonable police officer—even in 1988—that withholding evidence from a defendant is unconstitutional. Specifically, former Newport Police Department officer Norman Wagner declined to disclose that he paid a jailhouse informant named Joe Womack to testify against Virgil after Wagner allegedly fed Womack details about the crime and promised to put in a good word with the parole board if Womack obliged. What’s more, Wagner, along with former officer Marc Brandt, failed to tell the defense about a serial killer investigation possibly connected to Welch’s murder, and that other suspects had been identified as a part of that effort.

“[Virgil] alleges, for example, that the officers tried to frame him; that they coerced an inmate to testify falsely that Virgil had confessed to the murder; and that they then deliberately suppressed exculpatory evidence regarding alternative suspects,” wrote Judge Joan Larsen for the 6th Circuit in December of 2018. “Such conduct, if proved, would surely amount to bad faith or its functional equivalent; and there can be little question that it was well established before September 1988 that police officers could not deliberately conceal material, exculpatory evidence.”

Virgil died in January of this year—almost three years after that decision came down, and even longer after a lower court came to the same conclusion. But his case was still prohibited from going before a jury, as the government insisted on appealing again to the same court which already ruled in Virgil’s favor.

“A reasonably trained police officer in 1988 would have certainly known that you have to disclose exculpatory evidence implicating other people in a homicide investigation,” says Elliot Slosar, an attorney at Loevy & Loevy, who is representing Virgil. “That type of law was clearly established not only by 1988, but by 1968. Because of that, we do view their appeal as frivolous.”

The suit was first filed in early 2016. Virgil’s estate is not expected to go to trial until 2023, with the government invoking its special protections to continue delaying a claim that multiple courts have already said should proceed to a jury trial. “Qualified immunity…enable[s] defendants who have been plausibly accused of misconduct to stretch out the litigation, to make it longer and more expensive than it would be,” says Clark Neily, senior vice president for legal studies at the Cato Institute. “Unfortunately, some plaintiffs do end up dying during litigation….It’s a real tragedy.” Meanwhile, Virgil overcoming qualified immunity did not entitle him to any sort of judgement—it merely afforded him the privilege to impanel his peers and state his case, something his cousin will now do in his stead.

“William just always wanted justice, which means a lot of different things,” says Slosar. “He wanted his day in court. He wanted for the public to see how he was framed for a crime he did not commit. He wanted for the public to see evidence of who really committed this tragic murder. More than anything, William always wanted these police officers to be held accountable for every single day that he was ripped away from his family and spent wrongfully incarcerated.”

That’s perhaps a modest list for someone who spent 28 years behind bars paying for a murder he didn’t take part in. And yet asking the government to pay for its part in ruining Virgil’s life is apparently too big an ask.

The post He Spent 28 Years Behind Bars for a Murder He Didn't Commit and Died Before Seeing Justice appeared first on Reason.com.

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The Global Rush To Own Gold Has Only Just Begun

The Global Rush To Own Gold Has Only Just Begun

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

Judging by the action in gold over the last two days, one might assume that rate hikes have been implemented (and worked) and that Russia and Ukraine have declared a cease-fire.

Neither of those things have happened and so (it’ll come as zero surprise to my readers) that I found the nearly $70 peak-to-trough sell off in gold over the last two days to be misguided.

I added exposure to gold with some GLD calls yesterday (yes, I know it is paper gold and a claim to physical that may not exist, I just wanted speculative options exposure) with the equity trading at about $177.75.

The slams lower in gold are as predictable as they are irrational.


Following a melt up/short squeeze in the equity markets over the last two days, ostensibly due to positive sounding cease-fire talks that I am still skeptical of and wrote about this week and last (here and here), gold sold off by about $70 within the course of less than two trading sessions.

The combination of the Fed finally embracing rate hikes and the Russia/Ukraine conflict potentially slowing down has the market thinking that safe havens may not be necessary going forward.

This perception that gold is trading on is far from the reality of the situation. As we just learned this morning, Russia has said “nothing very promising” has taken place in peace talks so far, and the Fed hasn’t even begun to approach the problem of inflation yet.

Regardless of whether or not there is eventually a cease-fire or Russia decides to back off the gas in Ukraine, it doesn’t mean that the economic sanctions that have been put in place against the country are going to be withdrawn. These sanctions have forced Russia and China to cross the Rubicon, in my opinion, where it appears to me that Russia and China may challenge the U.S. dollar and that Russia is trying to back the ruble with gold.

This isn’t going to change anytime soon, regardless of whether or not the physical conflict in Ukraine continues.

And there was a lot of bluster yesterday from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, who said that he was “open to the idea of more aggressive rate hikes” and that the “U.S. can avoid a recession”. It was the usual line of bullshit from someone at the Fed: lots of confident-sounding lip on how to quell inflation, but little action.

The truth is we have only seen one 25 bps hike (which should have been a 50 bps hike). Real rates are still drifting between -6% and -8%. This is about as bullish of a scenario for gold as you can possibly get, and it isn’t going away anytime soon. Real rates are going to remain negative for the foreseeable future. If they don’t, it means that the Fed has raised rates so high that we’re going to have a massive debt crisis, which will then eventually become systemic, forcing people back into gold as a sovereign debt crisis safe haven, after they first sell it in a rush to deleverage.


The truth is that I think the gold rush has only just begun. 

Watching one major selloff like we saw on Monday was fine with me – I chalked it up to regular market gyrations. But once gold made a $70 dive in the course of less than two trading sessions, I had to pull the trigger on some speculation.

I’m not sure what the gold market is perceiving when it comes to the world of macro, but whatever it is, it certainly stands at odds with my analysis that both key outstanding risks – Russia and inflation – lead back to gold moving higher.

In the case of Russia, I expect permanent changes to the way the country conducts business globally (i.e. sells oil and natural gas) that will be bullish for gold.

With regard to inflation, I think the Fed will hike until the market crashes at some point this year. It’ll then be forced to retake a dovish stance on monetary policy, while hoping that CPI starts to turn slightly lower so that they can claim victory in the face of perversely negative real rates. A situation like this, in my opinion, isn’t just the likeliest outcome for how the inflation problem will be dealt with, it is also the most bullish scenario for gold.

No matter what, it feels to me like a new, bifurcated global economy waits in the wings and that it is only a matter of time before gold once again gets the starting nod to do what it does best: preserve wealth, store value and help act as sound money.

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Disclaimer: I am long gold and miners seven ways from Sunday. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities. I own or will own all names I mentioned or linked to in this piece. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I get shit wrong a lot.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/30/2022 – 17:00

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