“Do You Feel Lucky?” – 8 Reasons To Question The Market’s Recent Rip

“Do You Feel Lucky?” – 8 Reasons To Question The Market’s Recent Rip

Amid an utter shitshow of macro, micro, political, and geopolitical chaos, the S&P 500 is less than 4% from its all-time record closing high in early January…

Source: Bloomberg

It appears Goldman was right since the past 11 days saw a 20%-plus surge in the ‘most shorted’ stocks – the biggest squeeze since the March 2020 lows liquidity-fueled rebound…

Source: Bloomberg

However, as the chart above shows, after getting-back-to-even for the year, the last two days have seen ‘most shorted’ stocks fade fast as perhaps the squeeze ammo has dried up.

So where do we stand?

Bloomberg’s Simon White has some ideas and offers eight reasons why it would be a surprise if the S&P were to make a new high before at least testing the recent low…

1) Poor liquidity.

Global liquidity conditions continue to deteriorate as central banks move into tightening mode, and rising inflation erodes the real value of money growth.

Risk assets will struggle while the impulse from liquidity is falling.

2) Tech sector lags.

While tech has led the most recent bounce in the market, the sector has heavily lagged since last year when the market started to price in higher Fed rates. Tech has one of the highest durations as it has lumpy future cash flows. The chart below shows a clear inverse relationship between duration and sector outperformance since Fed-pricing began to rise.

With tech the single largest sector in the S&P (at ~28%), it will be tough for the market to make a new high while the sector lags.

3) Profit margins fall.

Profit margins had been driving market returns, but high inflation and a tight employment market will soon compress them.

4) P/Es fall. 

P/E multiples are unlikely to be able to pick up the baton from weaker margins. Earnings rise with inflation but the extra risk associated with greater and more variable inflation implies investors pay up less for this rise in (nominal) earnings, and P/Es fall.

5) Revenues fall. 

Revenues track economic growth. Leading indicators such as wider credit spreads and a falling ISM new orders-to-inventory ratio suggest U.S. growth will weaken this year.

6) Buybacks don’t pick up. 

Buybacks were a major driver of stock returns in the last cycle, but they are unlikely to do likewise this cycle. Buybacks will face headwinds from tighter monetary conditions, as well as a Biden plan to limit the amount of buybacks firms can do.

7) Few signs of capitulation. 

We have not seen the signs of capitulation — e.g. sharp rises in number of stocks making new lows, plummets in the advance/decline line, spikes in put/call ratios, etc — normally seen at significant market lows.

8) The war is likely not over. 

The recent bounce was driven by a belief peace will soon break out, but unless Putin has fully recanted his belief that Ukraine is not a de jure nation state, it seems folly to assume the conflict is over.

As White concludes, eight is considered a lucky a number in many parts of the world. Maybe it will be for the bears again in Q2?

As Goldman’s Tony Pasquariello noted, “this is what bear market rallies look like… These types of vicious rips higher are a feature, not an oddity.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/31/2022 – 11:45

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No Pseudonymity as to PTSD-Based Lawsuit About City Siren

From Doe v. City of Ludington, decided today by Judge Hala Jarbou (W.D. Mich.)

Plaintiffs are anonymously suing the City of Ludington for moving and re-connecting a siren in Copeyan Park in downtown Ludington, which allegedly exacerbated Plaintiff John Doe’s post-traumatic stress syndrome (PTSD) from his two tours of duty in Afghanistan and one tour of duty in Iraq with the American Armed Forces. Plaintiffs claim that the City of Ludington has violated Plaintiff John Doe’s rights under the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) and the Federal Fair Housing Act (FFHA) by refusing Plaintiffs’ proposed reasonable accommodation of only using the siren for emergencies. Plaintiffs also allege pendant state claims for nuisance, city code violations, and a request for injunctive relief….

Courts begin with a presumption of open judicial proceedings. The Federal Rules of Civil Procedure generally require a complaint to state the names of all parties. Fed. R. Civ. P. 10(a). A plaintiff may proceed anonymously only in exceptional circumstances …. Plaintiffs have failed to demonstrate that their privacy interests substantially outweigh the presumption in favor of open judicial proceedings….

Plaintiffs’ fears of social stigma or harm to their reputations fail to outweigh the general interest in favor of open judicial proceedings. Such fears, without more, are not enough to justify an exception. And that is especially true here, where Plaintiffs’ identities are already known. {Justin Cooper, City OKs Settlement Talks with Veteran Triggered by Copeyon Park Siren, Ludington Daily News (Mar. 15, 2022), [URL].} The public interest in guaranteeing open access to judicial proceedings requires a heavy basis to overcome…. “One of the essential qualities of a Court of Justice is that its proceedings should be public.” … Plaintiffs have failed to meet this burden….

If Plaintiffs wish to proceed with this litigation, they shall file an amended complaint in their full names within seven days from the date of this Order. If they fail to comply, the Court may dismiss the case for lack of prosecution….

For more on the case, see the Complaint.

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‘100 Percent’ Vaccinated Cruise Ship Hit With COVID-19 Outbreak

‘100 Percent’ Vaccinated Cruise Ship Hit With COVID-19 Outbreak

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Princess Cruises confirmed that one of its cruise liners, the Ruby Princess, reported a COVID-19 outbreak before docking in San Francisco.

A Princess Cruises ship is seen near Yokohama, south of Tokyo on Feb. 5, 2020, in a file photo. (Hiroko Harima/Kyodo News via AP)

The cruise operator requires passengers and crew members to be fully vaccinated for COVID-19, which is caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus. Princess Cruises also mandates passengers to show a negative COVID-19 test and proof of vaccination to board, according to its website.

Those who tested positive were “isolated and quarantined while monitored and cared for by our shipboard medical team,” Princess Cruises said in a statement to news outlets Monday. It did not say how many people tested positive or when they tested positive during the cruise.

They were all asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic,” the firm said. Some of the passengers who contracted the CCP virus did not finish their quarantine and were either sent home or “were provided with accommodations ashore to hotels coordinated in advance for isolation and quarantine,” the statement added.

“As with all Princess itineraries, this cruise is operated as a vaccinated cruise, as defined by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,” the company told the San Francisco Chronicle. “Guests and crew vaccination rates were at 100 percent.”

The Ruby Princess docked in San Francisco on Sunday, the company said, after the ship was on a 15-day cruise to the Panama Canal. The ship departed later that day on a 15-day cruise to Hawaii, said Negin Kamali, spokesperson for Princess Cruises, in a statement to USA Today.

Under the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) cruise ship monitoring website, the Ruby Princess is described as “under observation” by the federal health agency.

The development comes about two weeks after the CDC lowered its COVID-19 warning for cruise travel to “Level 2,” a “moderate” risk. Previously, the agency gave cruise travel a “Level 4” warning, which is the highest level, as the Omicron variant spread across the United States several months ago.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the cruise industry has been battered by lockdowns and federal restrictions on cruises—amid early speculation that cruise ships were “super spreaders” of the virus. Industry data suggests that cruise companies collectively lost $63 billion in 2020 and 2021.

On March 18, the CDC released new COVID-19 guidelines for the cruise industry, with a spokesman telling USA Today that it entails the agency’s suggestions on social distancing, quarantine requirements, and port agreements.

The Epoch Times has contacted Princess Cruises for comment.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/31/2022 – 11:27

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Putin Orders 134,500 New Conscripts Into Army, But Says They Won’t Go To Front Lines

Putin Orders 134,500 New Conscripts Into Army, But Says They Won’t Go To Front Lines

Amid the ongoing debate over the extent to which Russian forces have actually withdrawn from near Kiev, which has not witnessed any recent shelling of the city itself (but in some suburbs outside the capital), Vladimir Putin has signed a new order that signals Russian forces are ready for further escalation inside Ukraine.

Reuters details Thursday that the new law will add 134,500 conscripts between the ages of 18 and 27 to Russia’s armed forces. It comes in the context of the country’s annual spring draft, but also amid widespread speculation that the military is fairing much more poorly than expected, now firmly into the second month of the Ukraine invasion. 

Kremlin pool/EPA/EFE

However, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu sought to make clear the new recruits won’t be sent to any “hot spots” – meaning they are not expected to enter Ukraine – and it remains that it could take up to six months or a year to process in new military members and get them trained. 

Previously Putin himself had claimed that new conscripts aren’t currently “participating in hostilities” across the Ukraine border. 

According to the most recent numbers from the Ministry of Defense (MoD), the Russian death toll in Ukraine is at least 1,351 killed and 3,825 wounded, as of last week. But NATO officials have said that figure is in reality in the 7,000 to 15,000 range, while Ukrainian sources and some Western media reports have suggested as many as 17,000.

Even if new conscripts are not sent to the front lines, a large influx of new recruits can serve to open up troop flows into the conflict, by manning crucial bases at home, and serving pressing logistical needs.

After Putin signed the law Thursday, CNN and other mainstream networks presented that it was done in direct response to massive losses on the Ukraine battlefield, however…

By the start of this week, Russia’s military command had made clear that strategic efforts will focus on fully liberating the Donbas, which would require ‘redeployments’ from near Kiev and Chernihiv. It remains unclear if this marks a complete shift in scope, or if perhaps this was the plan from the beginning. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday Chernihiv’s mayor said the city came under “colossal attack” – suggesting there’s actually been little that’s changed.

Kiev officials have also pointed to Russia’s willingness to employ more long-range bombardment of Ukrainian cites, increasing the dangers to the civilian population, while at the same time keeping Russian ground forces at a further distance from Ukrainian resistance. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/31/2022 – 11:05

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Gigi Sohn, Biden’s Pick for FCC Vacancy, Is Still Pushing Pointless ‘Net Neutrality’ Regulations


spnphotosten652323

When a federal appeals court in 2010 gutted a series of regulations related to what we now call “net neutrality,” Gigi Sohn predicted a bleak future for web users in which most of us would be relegated to a slower experience while a few powerful online firms had access to the speediest connections.

“You can’t have innovation if all the big companies get the fast lane,” Sohn, then-president of Public Knowledge, a progressive consumer rights group, told The New York Times. “Look at Google, eBay, Yahoo—none of those companies would have survived if 15 years ago we had a fast lane and a slow lane on the Internet.”

Sohn, who is now President Joe Biden’s nominee to fill a crucial, tiebreaking vacancy at the Federal Communications Commission, was a crucial player in the Obama administration’s efforts to reinstate net neutrality regulations in 2015. After that version of rules for internet service providers (ISPs) was scrapped by the Trump administration in 2017, she went right back to predicting a worsening online experience with consumers getting unfair treatment. “Those ‘fast lanes’ will put those who won’t or cannot pay in the slow lane,” Sohn told CNN in 2018.

Federal regulations for online traffic have come and gone, and the online ecosystem is constantly in flux. But about the only constant over the past decade or so has been a steady increase in both internet speed and overall bandwidth. “From 2010 to 2020, average data consumed by U.S. households rose 37-fold,” economist Thomas W. Hazlett noted in the August 2021 issue of Reason. The online applications available to any internet user today pale in comparison to what was available around the time that Sohn was first fretting about “fast lanes” for some users. The average home internet speed in 2009 was just five megabits per second—barely enough to stream Netflix in high definition, as long as you weren’t doing anything else at the same time. Even the sudden surge in working and schooling from home due to the COVID-19 pandemic was no problem with today’s connections.

You might say that we all ended up in the “fast lane.”

But the Biden administration seems determined to reimpose net neutrality, a catchall term for a variety of federal regulations that effectively require ISPs to operate as public utilities. It might be more accurate to say that the Biden administration—and Sohn, whose nomination could go before the Senate for a final vote within the next few days or weeks, according to The Wall Street Journal—is stuck in the past, pushing a solution to a problem that never really existed and certainly doesn’t right now.

That’s not too surprising, considering that Biden’s approach to tech regulation has mostly involved getting the band back together from the Obama years. Sohn was an aide to Tom Wheeler when he was Obama’s FCC chairman, and she played a crucial role in crafting the agency’s 2015 net neutrality order. Jessica Rosenworcel, the current FCC chairwoman, was originally appointed to the commission by Obama in 2011 (and reappointed by President Donald Trump in 2017). Tim Wu, the Obama administration adviser who is widely credited with coining the term net neutrality, now sits on Biden’s National Economic Council.

So we’re doing this all over again. But the major blind spot in Sohn’s net neutrality crusade is the same as it’s ever been—and the same one that beguiles many pro-regulation advocates, regardless of the specific industry or situation. It’s a zero-sum mentality that assumes private businesses will conspire against consumers to expand their market share in the absence of direct government regulation.

In reality, however, internet providers haven’t spent the past decade fighting over slices of the pie but rather have worked to greatly expand the size of the pie itself—benefiting their bottom lines, of course, but also greatly enhancing what consumers and internet-based businesses get to experience.

She also misses the consequences of government regulation, which tend to keep the pie from growing. Private firms have invested more than $1.7 trillion in building out wired, wireless, and cable internet since 1996. But during the two years when Sohn’s preferred net neutrality rules were on the books, private investment in expanded internet service notably declined. “Only the dot-com bust and the Great Recession have triggered such declines in the past,” Mark Jamison, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, summarized at the time.

Finally, the bigger pie caused by greater private investment creates more opportunities for innovation. No one can seriously look at the internet of 2022 and say, as Sohn worried in 2010, that innovation has stagnated in the absence of government regulation. Uber, TikTok, and other widely used online services of today not only didn’t exist in 2010 but would have been impossible under the speed and bandwidth available to most users at the time. To favor regulation is to favor stagnation, and stagnation would have robbed us of those innovations, and whatever comes next.

But Sohn only knows one song, and she’s going to keep singing it. “I am very concerned that broadband, an essential service, has been without any oversight for four years,” she told members of the Senate at her confirmation hearing in December.

If ISPs were going to create the “slow lanes” that she’s been worried about for years, one might wonder, why haven’t they done so in the five years since the FCC’s net neutrality rules were repealed? The best evidence that Sohn and other pro-regulation forces can muster are anecdotal situations in which consumers and ISPs came into conflict over the terms of service—including one high-profile case where Verizon was accused of throttling broadband service to the Santa Clara County Fire Department while it battled a major wildfire. That’s a problem, of course, but it’s not at all clear that the appropriate response is widespread government regulation of the internet as a public utility—and, regardless, the Federal Trade Commission already has the ability to settle those types of disputes when they arise.

The nightmare scenarios that net neutrality advocates have been warning about for decades still haven’t come to pass. In fact, they were always figments of the imagination.

In that same New York Times piece that quoted Sohn in 2010, reporter Edward Wyatt included an important caveat to the prevailing doom and gloom: “As a practical matter,” he wrote, “the court ruling will not have any immediate impact on Internet users, since Comcast and other large Internet providers are not currently restricting specific types of Web content and have no plans to do so.”

The internet has changed a lot since 2010. This political debate, dishearteningly, has stayed the same.

The post Gigi Sohn, Biden's Pick for FCC Vacancy, Is Still Pushing Pointless 'Net Neutrality' Regulations appeared first on Reason.com.

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Gigi Sohn, Biden’s Pick for FCC Vacancy, Is Still Pushing Pointless ‘Net Neutrality’ Regulations


spnphotosten652323

When a federal appeals court in 2010 gutted a series of regulations related to what we now call “net neutrality,” Gigi Sohn predicted a bleak future for web users in which most of us would be relegated to a slower experience while a few powerful online firms had access to the speediest connections.

“You can’t have innovation if all the big companies get the fast lane,” Sohn, then-president of Public Knowledge, a progressive consumer rights group, told The New York Times. “Look at Google, eBay, Yahoo—none of those companies would have survived if 15 years ago we had a fast lane and a slow lane on the Internet.”

Sohn, who is now President Joe Biden’s nominee to fill a crucial, tiebreaking vacancy at the Federal Communications Commission, was a crucial player in the Obama administration’s efforts to reinstate net neutrality regulations in 2015. After that version of rules for internet service providers (ISPs) was scrapped by the Trump administration in 2017, she went right back to predicting a worsening online experience with consumers getting unfair treatment. “Those ‘fast lanes’ will put those who won’t or cannot pay in the slow lane,” Sohn told CNN in 2018.

Federal regulations for online traffic have come and gone, and the online ecosystem is constantly in flux. But about the only constant over the past decade or so has been a steady increase in both internet speed and overall bandwidth. “From 2010 to 2020, average data consumed by U.S. households rose 37-fold,” economist Thomas W. Hazlett noted in the August 2021 issue of Reason. The online applications available to any internet user today pale in comparison to what was available around the time that Sohn was first fretting about “fast lanes” for some users. The average home internet speed in 2009 was just five megabits per second—barely enough to stream Netflix in high definition, as long as you weren’t doing anything else at the same time. Even the sudden surge in working and schooling from home due to the COVID-19 pandemic was no problem with today’s connections.

You might say that we all ended up in the “fast lane.”

But the Biden administration seems determined to reimpose net neutrality, a catchall term for a variety of federal regulations that effectively require ISPs to operate as public utilities. It might be more accurate to say that the Biden administration—and Sohn, whose nomination could go before the Senate for a final vote within the next few days or weeks, according to The Wall Street Journal—is stuck in the past, pushing a solution to a problem that never really existed and certainly doesn’t right now.

That’s not too surprising, considering that Biden’s approach to tech regulation has mostly involved getting the band back together from the Obama years. Sohn was an aide to Tom Wheeler when he was Obama’s FCC chairman, and she played a crucial role in crafting the agency’s 2015 net neutrality order. Jessica Rosenworcel, the current FCC chairwoman, was originally appointed to the commission by Obama in 2011 (and reappointed by President Donald Trump in 2017). Tim Wu, the Obama administration adviser who is widely credited with coining the term net neutrality, now sits on Biden’s National Economic Council.

So we’re doing this all over again. But the major blind spot in Sohn’s net neutrality crusade is the same as it’s ever been—and the same one that beguiles many pro-regulation advocates, regardless of the specific industry or situation. It’s a zero-sum mentality that assumes private businesses will conspire against consumers to expand their market share in the absence of direct government regulation.

In reality, however, internet providers haven’t spent the past decade fighting over slices of the pie but rather have worked to greatly expand the size of the pie itself—benefiting their bottom lines, of course, but also greatly enhancing what consumers and internet-based businesses get to experience.

She also misses the consequences of government regulation, which tend to keep the pie from growing. Private firms have invested more than $1.7 trillion in building out wired, wireless, and cable internet since 1996. But during the two years when Sohn’s preferred net neutrality rules were on the books, private investment in expanded internet service notably declined. “Only the dot-com bust and the Great Recession have triggered such declines in the past,” Mark Jamison, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, summarized at the time.

Finally, the bigger pie caused by greater private investment creates more opportunities for innovation. No one can seriously look at the internet of 2022 and say, as Sohn worried in 2010, that innovation has stagnated in the absence of government regulation. Uber, TikTok, and other widely used online services of today not only didn’t exist in 2010 but would have been impossible under the speed and bandwidth available to most users at the time. To favor regulation is to favor stagnation, and stagnation would have robbed us of those innovations, and whatever comes next.

But Sohn only knows one song, and she’s going to keep singing it. “I am very concerned that broadband, an essential service, has been without any oversight for four years,” she told members of the Senate at her confirmation hearing in December.

If ISPs were going to create the “slow lanes” that she’s been worried about for years, one might wonder, why haven’t they done so in the five years since the FCC’s net neutrality rules were repealed? The best evidence that Sohn and other pro-regulation forces can muster are anecdotal situations in which consumers and ISPs came into conflict over the terms of service—including one high-profile case where Verizon was accused of throttling broadband service to the Santa Clara County Fire Department while it battled a major wildfire. That’s a problem, of course, but it’s not at all clear that the appropriate response is widespread government regulation of the internet as a public utility—and, regardless, the Federal Trade Commission already has the ability to settle those types of disputes when they arise.

The nightmare scenarios that net neutrality advocates have been warning about for decades still haven’t come to pass. In fact, they were always figments of the imagination.

In that same New York Times piece that quoted Sohn in 2010, reporter Edward Wyatt included an important caveat to the prevailing doom and gloom: “As a practical matter,” he wrote, “the court ruling will not have any immediate impact on Internet users, since Comcast and other large Internet providers are not currently restricting specific types of Web content and have no plans to do so.”

The internet has changed a lot since 2010. This political debate, dishearteningly, has stayed the same.

The post Gigi Sohn, Biden's Pick for FCC Vacancy, Is Still Pushing Pointless 'Net Neutrality' Regulations appeared first on Reason.com.

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22,000 Union Workers At 29 West Coast Ports May Strike

22,000 Union Workers At 29 West Coast Ports May Strike

By Dees Stribling of Bisnow National

The international supply chain crisis that has impacted U.S. logistics firms, retailers and consumers could intensify this summer.

West Coast union dockworkers may strike if they don’t come to an agreement to replace their existing contract with marine terminals. The contract is set to expire at the end of June.

Major retail chains have already ordered extra goods from Asia as insurance against a breakdown in contract talks, keeping the goods at newly developed storage yards near the twin California ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles. Such lots allow retailers to move containers more quickly, preventing them from being delayed under piles of cargo at congested ports.

Walmart alone has room for 4,000 shipping containers at the ports’ overflow yards, Pacific Terminal Services Vice President of Commercial Operations Sepehr Matinifar told The New York Times.

Space constraints in the area led to the rise of the new storage yards. By Q2 2021, industrial vacancy near the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach was below 1%, according to CBRE.

Even with beefed-up orders kept in storage yards, a slowdown or strike by West Coast dockworkers would compound the pandemic-induced supply chain woes that have seen record backlogs of container ships off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach waiting to be unloaded.

The International Longshore and Warehouse Union, which represents nearly 22,000 workers at 29 ports along the West Coast, recently put together its contract negotiating team. Nearly three-quarters of those workers are employed at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, the major nexus for goods shipped from Asia to North America.

In 2014, the last time the union and shipping companies negotiated a contract, a labor slowdown brought activity at Pacific ports nearly to a standstill.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/31/2022 – 10:45

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Nomura “Seeing Clear Signs Of A Pre-Emptive ‘Defensive’ Trade Brewing”

Nomura “Seeing Clear Signs Of A Pre-Emptive ‘Defensive’ Trade Brewing”

Besides yesterday being an obvious downtrade in Equities after a torrid rally, Nomura’s Charlie McElligott warns in today’s note that it continues to jump off the page that we are seeing clear signs of a pre-emptive “Defensive” trade brewing.

The bid in bonds overnight (and the curves flattening) is being attributed to a bunch of bullish fixed-income dynamics listed below…

  • The final push from the month- / quarter- end pension rebal- AND duration- extension “bid”;

  • A signif drop in Crude Oil overnight, after reports that the Biden Admin is looking at yet another US SPR release, targeting perhaps as much as 180mm barrels over six months (~1mm b/d), in an effort to alleviate energy price inflation–which of course does absolutely ZERO as it pertains to structural supply deficits;

  • NATO’s Stoltenberg saying that Russia’s pullback is merely a regroup ahead of an offensive into Donbas

  • Chinese official PMIs dropping into full-tilt CONTRACTION, crunched by ZCS and the ongoing contraction of the property sector;

  • BoJ announcing an upgraded notional amounts of 10Y bond purchases in their April / June JGB ops schedule in order to “achieve yield target”;

  • Relief in Europe after French and Italian March HICP came in relatively “in-line” against expectations (vs the shock upside surprises seen in Ger and Spa CPI data yday);

  • The reality of pnl management in consensus “short” positioning, seeing ongoing dribs-and-drabs of monetization

But, as McElligott notes, in the scheme of things, the overnight rally seem shockingly puny and reiterates just how much “Bond Hate” there is out there…

Source: Bloomberg

Nonetheless, the real Delta of the eventual Fed pivot DOVISH soon thereafter (now pricing in 3 rate-cuts) evidences a market where there continues to be real buy-in to the idea of a “hard landing” slow-down / recession, due to the Fed’s planned “restrictive” rate policy and upgraded Street view of the eventual terminal rate…

Source: Bloomberg

But, it is on the US Equities thematic-factor / risk-premia level, that the pre-emptive ‘Defensive’ trade is most obvious (and confirms the Eurodollar market’s thoughts above on a “hard-landing” as the Fed’s plans to run restrictive policy will push the economy into recession

McElligott points to the old-school “Duration Barbell” approach of “Low Risk,” “Size” and “Quality” relative leadership being paired with “Growth” and “LT Momentum”… all despite a session where “WTI Crude Sensitive” factor was +2.6% and where “Energy” was the S&P’s best performing sector, +1.2% on the day…

This “Energy” and “Crude” running higher while “Low Vol” and “Quality” outperform is a tell-tale sign of a market which believes we are late-cycle, and where the Fed’s perceived tightening path is going to crunch the economy into contraction.

And what is the “real” contraction signal?  Not the curve inversions (although they are a critical part of the overall sequencing, of course)….

…but instead, the signal is when we get the STEEPENING (a likely “bull steepening” in this case, potentially as soon as late 2H22) which tells you that the market is “smelling the recession”.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/31/2022 – 10:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/QvG1L9h Tyler Durden

It’s OK To Say “Gay” But Please Don’t Use Offensive Words Like “Boy” Or “Girl”

It’s OK To Say “Gay” But Please Don’t Use Offensive Words Like “Boy” Or “Girl”

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Extreme woke madness and hypocrisy continues. Florida leads the way in Controversy…

Sign paid for by the Southern Progress Pac from its website. 

On Monday, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law a controversial law dubbed the “Don’t Say Gay” bill. 

It’s OK to say gay. It’s more than OK. It’s encouraged,” Ally Sammarco, a volunteer for the PAC, told NBC affiliate WESH of Winter Park

What Does the Bill Really Do?

The law goes into effect starting July 1. It’s actually called the “Parental Rights in Education” Law. 

The seven pages never mention the word gay. 

The most controversial measure states “Classroom instruction by school personnel or third parties on sexual orientation or gender identity may not occur in kindergarten through grade 3 or in a manner that is not age appropriate or developmentally appropriate for students in accordance with state standards.”

President Biden Calls the Bill Hateful 

Offensive Words Like “Boy” or “Girl”

Extreme liberals want to teach first graders about being gay, and encourage the use of the word gay. 

But please don’t use offensive terms like boy and girl.

Disney leads the way. 

The company has eliminated all mentions of “ladies,” “gentlemen,” “boys,” and “girls” in its theme parks in order to create “that magical moment” for children who do not identify with traditional gender roles.

Magical Moment

Yes “folks” we have arrived at that magical moment in Florida where it’s OK to say gay but not boy. It’s also OK to say lesbian but not girl. 

The words boy and girl are clearly offensive but gay and lesbian aren’t.

Hopefully, the irony of this asinine development sinks in to those who wish to remove all gender references, but don’t hold your breath earthlings. 

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/31/2022 – 10:06

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The College Campuses That Still Force Students To Wear Masks


USA-The_George_Washington_University

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, Washington, D.C., remained one of the most aggressively pro-masking municipalities in the country, and brought back the indoor mask mandate twice, for the delta and omicron waves. Mayor Muriel Bowser finally rescinded the mandate—hopefully for good—beginning on March 1, though masks remain compulsory for many school kids, commuters, and library visitors.

Across the country, government-mandated masking is mostly over, with air travel being a notable exception. But that doesn’t mean mask mandates are dead and gone. Indeed, many college campuses still have mask mandates in place, even though their student populations are almost entirely vaccinated and at low risk of negative COVID-19 health outcomes.

George Washington University (GWU), for instance—located in Washington, D.C.—still has a universal indoor mask mandate in place and has no plans as of yet to get rid of it. This, despite the fact that the university requires students to be vaccinated and boosted, and tests them every other week.

Jack Elbaum, a sophomore at GWU, attempted to press the university administration for more details about why the mask mandate wasn’t going away. He did not receive a satisfying response.

“I was, first, directed to the university’s previous statements and, second, informed that GW has not changed its Covid-19 restrictions because of ‘our recent spring break and the rise of the BA.2 variant [a subvariant of Omicron],'” he wrote in a piece for The Federalist. “To put it bluntly: this is not sufficient justification.”

Elbaum tells Reason that GWU’s policies make absolutely no sense.

“In practical terms, COVID-19 poses zero threat to the G.W. community, yet the administration keeps a policy in place that ensures the virus is on people’s minds every day,” Elbaum says.

GWU is hardly alone. Connecticut College still requires indoor masking, unless a student is eating or drinking, using the bathroom, or in his room with the door closed. Masks are still mandatory in the gym; they are even required while outdoors if students are in “close proximity” to each other.

New York University (NYU) forces students to wear masks unless actively eating or drinking, or unless they are shut away in their dorm rooms. The university is even picky about what kind of masks the students wear: no bandanas, scarves, or cloth masks.

The University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) is similarly picky about masks and isn’t planning to ease its mandate until April 11. “UCLA plans to relax its mandatory indoor masking requirements on April 11 for most students, faculty and staff who are up to date with their COVID-19 vaccinations (including boosters), although indoor masking remains strongly recommended,” wrote the university. “Until that date, please continue to follow the guidance below.”

Many college campuses that have rescinded the mask mandate still require masks in the classroom, including the University of Michigan.

“I feel like the classroom requirement is burdensome on a lot of students,” Mason Hinawi, a Michigan student, told The Michigan Daily. “(COVID-19) has been a cloak over everyone’s social lives. I feel like it’s time for things to start moving in the right direction here.” The administration apparently disagrees.

Every college that still clings, desperately, to mask mandates must ask itself one simple question: If not now, when? Students are as safe as they can be, but the policies at GWU and other places treat them like the most uniquely fragile population on the earth.

The post The College Campuses That Still Force Students To Wear Masks appeared first on Reason.com.

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