Month: June 2022

Just moments after Amber Heard was found guilty of defaming Johnny Depp with malice, the stock of Facebook – which bizarrely still calls itself Meta at least until the company decides to change its name back to normal – tumbled on news that Sheryl Sandberg is stepping down as chief operating officer.

Sandberg, who Bloomberg describes as “one of the most recognized figures in global business after helping Facebook transform from a startup into a multibillion-dollar advertising powerhouse” although we are confident others would have less effusive descriptions of the 52-year-old, will remain on the board of Meta according to a post on the social network Wednesday. Javier Olivan, who has led the company’s growth efforts for years, will take Sandberg’s place as COO when she formally steps down in the fall.

Sandberg, a Democrat who previously served as chief of staff for Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, joined Facebook in 2008 and was key to turning it into a social media giant that generated almost $120 billion in revenue last year. Along the way, she became an influential author – publishing “Lean In” in 2013 – and served as the highest-profile face of the company next to CEO Mark Zuckerberg. She also answered for Facebook’s privacy and policy missteps over the years, attempting to improve its relationship with the public and regulators.

In an interview with Bloomberg, Sandberg called her time at Meta the “honor and privilege of a lifetime,” but joked that it’s also “not the most manageable job anyone has ever had.”

“It’s a decision I didn’t come to lightly, but it’s been 14 years,” she said on Wednesday. “I want to make more room to do more philanthropically, to do more with my foundation.”

Sandbery’s farewell Facebook post is below:

Today, I am sharing the news that after 14 years, I will be leaving Meta.

When I first met Mark, I was not really looking for a new job – and I could have never predicted how meeting him would change my life. We were at a holiday party at Daniel L Rosensweig’s house. I was introduced to Mark as I walked in the door, and we started talking about his vision for Facebook. I had tried The Facebook, as it was first called, but still thought the internet was a largely anonymous place to search for funny pictures. Mark’s belief that people would put their real selves online to connect with other people was so mesmerizing that we stood by that door and talked for the rest of the night. I told Dan later that I got a new life at that party but never got a single drink, so he owed me one.

Many months later, after countless – and I mean countless – dinners and conversations with Mark, he offered me this job. It was chaotic at first. I would schedule a meeting with an engineer for nine o’clock only to find that they would not show up. They assumed I meant nine p.m., because who would come to work at nine a.m.? We had some ads, but they were not performing well, and most advertisers I met wanted to take over our homepage like The Incredible Hulk movie had on MySpace. One was so angry when I said no to her homepage idea that she slammed her fist on the table, walked out of the room, and never returned. That first summer, Mark realized that he had never had a chance to travel, so he went away for a month, leaving me and Matt Cohler in charge without a ton of direction and almost no ability to contact him. It seemed crazy – but it was a display of trust I have never forgotten.

When I was considering joining Facebook, my late husband, Dave, counseled me not to jump in and immediately try to resolve every substantive issue with Mark, as we would face so many over time. Instead, I should set up the right process with him. So, on the way in, I asked Mark for three things – that we would sit next to each other, that he would meet with me one-on-one every week, and that in those meetings he would give me honest feedback when he thought I messed something up. Mark said yes to all three but added that the feedback would have to be mutual. To this day, he has kept those promises. We still sit together (OK, not through COVID), meet one-on-one every week, and the feedback is immediate and real.

Sitting by Mark’s side for these 14 years has been the honor and privilege of a lifetime. Mark is a true visionary and a caring leader. He sometimes says that we grew up together, and we have. He was just 23 and I was already 38 when we met, but together we have been through the massive ups and downs of running this company, as well as his marriage to the magnificent Priscilla, the sorrow of their miscarriages and the joy of their childbirths, the sudden loss of Dave, my engagement to Tom, and so much more. In the critical moments of my life, in the highest highs and in the depths of true lows, I have never had to turn to Mark, because he was already there.

When I joined Facebook, I had a two-year-old son and a six-month-old daughter. I did not know if this was the right time for a new and demanding role. The messages were everywhere that women – and I – could not be both a leader and a good mother, but I wanted to give it a try. Once I started, I realized that to see my children before they went to sleep, I had to leave the office at 5:30 p.m., which was when work was just getting going for many of my new colleagues. In my previous role at Google, there were enough people and buildings that leaving early wasn’t noticed, but Facebook was a small startup and there was nowhere to hide. More out of necessity than bravery, I found my nerve and walked out early anyway. Then, supported by Mark, I found my voice to admit this publicly and then talk about the challenges women face in the workplace. My hope was to make this a bit easier for others and help more women believe they can and should lead.

I am beyond grateful to the thousands of brilliant, dedicated people at Meta with whom I have had the privilege of working over the last 14 years. Every day someone does something that stops me in my tracks and reminds me how lucky I am to be surrounded by such remarkable colleagues. This team is filled with exceptionally talented people who have poured their hearts and minds into building products that have had a profound impact on the world.

It’s because of this team – past and present – that more than three billion people use our products to keep in touch and share their experiences. More than 200 million businesses use them to create virtual storefronts, communicate with customers, and grow. Billions of dollars have been raised for causes people believe in.

Behind each of these statistics is a story. Friends who would have lost touch but didn’t. Families that stayed in contact despite being separated by oceans. Communities that have rallied together. Entrepreneurial people – especially women and others who have faced obstacles and discrimination – who have turned their ideas into successful businesses.

Last week, a friend saw a post about a mutual friend of ours having a baby and told me that she remembers how before Instagram, she would have missed this moment. When the women in Lean In’s global Circles community couldn’t meet in person, they used Facebook to encourage each other and share advice for navigating work and life during the pandemic. At an International Women’s Day lunch, a woman told me that her Facebook birthday fundraiser generated enough money to provide shelter for two women experiencing domestic abuse. Just last month, I heard about how in India, the Self Employed Women’s Association connects over WhatsApp to organize and increase their collective bargaining power. I’ve loved traveling the world (physically and virtually) to meet small business owners and hear their stories – like Zuzanna Sielicka Kalczyńska in Poland, who started a business with her sister selling cuddly stuffed animals that make white noise to sooth crying babies. They began with a single Facebook post in 2014 and have gone on to sell in more than 20 countries and build a workforce mostly made up of moms like them.

The debate around social media has changed beyond recognition since those early days. To say it hasn’t always been easy is an understatement. But it should be hard. The products we make have a huge impact, so we have the responsibility to build them in a way that protects privacy and keeps people safe. Just as I believe wholeheartedly in our mission, our industry, and the overwhelmingly positive power of connecting people, I and the dedicated people of Meta have felt our responsibilities deeply. I know that the extraordinary team at Meta will continue to work tirelessly to rise to these challenges and keep making our company and our community better. I also know that our platforms will continue to be an engine of growth for the businesses around the world that rely on us.

When I took this job in 2008, I hoped I would be in this role for five years. Fourteen years later, it is time for me to write the next chapter of my life. I am not entirely sure what the future will bring – I have learned no one ever is. But I know it will include focusing more on my foundation and philanthropic work, which is more important to me than ever given how critical this moment is for women. And as Tom and I get married this summer, parenting our expanded family of five children. Over the next few months, Mark and I will transition my direct reports and I will leave the company this fall. I still believe as strongly as ever in our mission, and I am honored that I will continue to serve on Meta’s board of directors.
I am so immensely proud of everything this team has achieved. The businesses we’ve helped and the business we’ve built. The culture we’ve nurtured together. And I’m especially proud that this is a company where many, many exceptional women and people from diverse backgrounds have risen through our ranks and become leaders – both in our company and in leadership roles elsewhere.

Thank you to the colleagues who inspire me every day with their commitment to our mission, to our partners around the world who have enabled us to build a business that serves their businesses, and especially to Mark for giving me this opportunity and being one of the best friends anyone could ever have.

FB stock, which has been gotten in 2022, tumbled about 4% on the news.

Authored by Shawn Amick via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Goldman Sachs is reportedly looking to integrate services with Bitcoin and crypto exchange FTX.

• Goldman Sachs is reportedly in talks with FTX to facilitate derivatives trading for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

• FTX is seeking a license modification that will allow it to function as both an exchange and intermediary for derivatives.

• If FTX is successful in acquiring the license, it could begin the removal of intermediaries, such as Goldman, in derivatives markets.

Goldman Sachs is discussing derivatives trading with bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies through a possible partnership with cryptocurrency exchange FTX, according to a report from Barron’s.

“We have multiple FCMs [futures commission merchants] already committed to integrating technologically with the exchange,” Brett Harrison, the president of FTX’s U.S. division, said in an interview with Barron’s.

“There are several large ones you can probably name.”

FTX is reportedly seeking a license modification from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) which would allow the exchange to function as both a cryptocurrency exchange and an intermediary for leveraged derivatives trading (FCM). Interestingly enough, this role is currently held by institutions such as Goldman Sachs.

This denotes a stark wind change in which institutions who would have typically handled counterparty transactions with leverage before are now turning to other, more experienced service offerings. The report noted that FTX seems to be absorbing some of the market share of those who, historically, would be considered direct competition on Wall Street.

Should FTX be successful in this endeavor, this threatens the removal of intermediaries such as Goldman by providing derivatives in-house, as opposed to needing the cooperation of another financial institution. This has led to friction from the Futures Industry Association, which represents many of the intermediaries who would be affected as the association fears FTX could extend past cryptocurrencies into other markets.

Reportedly, the FTX integration could include directly trading futures contracts, the intermingling of clientele, a possible on-ramp being provided to Goldman to access the exchange, or providing capital top ups (stock options to increase equity positions) for clients. 

When it comes to forecasts for the price of oil, two distinct camps have emerged on Wall Street. In one, we have Citi, whose chief commodity strategist, Ed Morse, has been pounding the table calling for lower oil and most recently telling BBG TV that the fair value of Brent futures is in the $70 range even though the international benchmark is trading around $120 a barrel. Needless to say, Morse has been dead wrong so far, and anyone who listened to him has suffered catastrophic losses on the short side, although maybe he will be correct in the end: his forecast is predicated on unprecedented demand destruction, with Citi cutting its demand estimate for products to 2.2 million barrels a day, down from 3.6 million barrels at the start of the year. Alas, despite record prices for every energy product, there has so far been zero demand destruction as even Bloomberg’s resident in-house commodity expert Javier Blas pointed out earlier today.

OIL MARKET: After a short-lived correction in late May, refining margins are rocketing again, with the WTI 3-2-1 crack margin surging above $52.5 a barrel. The refined products markets continues to lead (where’s the demand destruction?), encouraging higher refinery runs #OOTT

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) June 1, 2022

In the other corner, we have pretty much everyone else, including such commodity bulls as Goldman and JPMorgan, the latter of which just published a note (available to ZH pro subs in the usual place), in which the bank’s oil analyst, Natasha Kaneva, writes that while the recent decision by the EU to ban Russian oil as part of its sixth package of sanctions, sent the price of oil to the highest level in two months, “where prices go from here will depend on whether Russia can divert its oil to China.”

First, some background.

According to JPM, Russia has so far been able to find plenty of willing buyers for its deeply discounted crude oil, and has so far not only been able to fully offset the 0.7 mbd crude export loss to its traditional customers in the US and Europe, but has managed to sell an additional 1.4 mbd to Asia buyers! Accordingly, Russian oil production has stabilized, and after averaging about 1 mbd lower in April, it has increased 200-300 kbd MoM in May, with more volumes expected to be restored next month.

While India has been snapping up distressed crude cargoes from Russia to feed its giant refining complexes, the increase to China, the world’s biggest importer, has been more modest—just 165 kbd—and has come chiefly from Eastern Russia ports rather than Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea ports which traditionally fed into Europe. India’s daily shipments from Russia have surged from zero in the weeks prior to the invasion to 953 kbd in April and have come from Western Russia ports, replacing some European demand.

What does that mean for the price of oil? Well, according to JPM, given time, and given large discounts to encourage exports to Asia, Russia will be able to redirect most of its exports and peg maximum impact on Russian production at 1.5 mbd (Exhibit 1). As such, the bank maintains its Brent price forecast of $114/bbl for 2Q22, with a peak month average of $122/bbl in June and averaging $104/bbl for 2022. For its view to materialize, the largest US commercial bank assumes India’s purchases of Russian crude will stabilize at a pace of around 500 kbd, and that, as Chinese demand recovers from nearly two months of COVID lockdowns, China would add another 1 mbd to its crude imports of Russian origin.

However, more demand is coming from China which is reportedly looking to increase its purchases to replenish its strategic crude stockpiles and talks are ongoing at government level. JPMorgan estimates that China can easily add another 1 mbd of Russian crude to its diet, although so far we have only seen marginal China purchases of crude from Western Russia ports. And while shipping oil under these latest sanctions will be more difficult, Russia still has the ability to get its exports to their destinations.

As such, JPM estimates Russia will be able to find shipping capacity to transport about 3 mbd of its crude oil to Asia and that sovereign insurance will be provided by the receiving countries. Both Indian and Chinese governments had previously approved coverage from state-run insurers setting a precedent that it could be done again in the future should the need arise and should the price be advantageous.

But were China to disappoint, and not ramp up purchases of Russian crude, JPM sees Brent prices averaging $122/bbl in 2Q22, peaking at monthly average of $136/bbl in June, followed up by $118/bbl in 3Q22, and $105/bbl in 4Q22.

The result – according to JPM who echoes what we said 3 months ago…

Russian oil bidless, non-Russian oil offerless https://t.co/2n6o258AGE

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 3, 2022

… will be “a bifurcated market: on one side Europe and the US in need of more domestic and OPEC supply to fill the gap and on the other side Russia, selling oil at large discounts to Asia.”

Russian Urals crude is already trading at a $30/bbl discount to Brent. While the OPEC reference price for Venezuela’s Merey crude, also under sanctions, is about $30/bbl lower than Brent, the actual purchase price for sanctioned barrels could be much lower—China’s $30/bbl tax on “diluted bitumen” enacted last year makes an even steeper discount on Venezuelan crude likely. Brent-$30 for Urals may be as much as Russia could reasonably expect to receive for its crude for the foreseeable future. Overall, Russia’s pricing power in the global oil market would be virtually eliminated.

And confirming that JPM’s “worst case” scenario is in the cards, on Tuesday an unknown trader wagered almost $8 million that WTI will soar. Specifically, the June 2023 WTI $150 and $200 calls traded about 4.35k times in a call spread strategy in multiple block trades.

The $150 calls traded at $2.76 and the $200 calls at $0.98, costing approx $7.7 million in premium.

According to Bloomberg, the trade is hedged with futures, and has a delta of 10. The largest trade in terms of aggregate size was a WTI butterfly call spread trading 2.4k times for August $140, $150, and $160 calls.

A little over a month after the Fed’s April Beige Book found that the US economy was growing at a “moderate pace”, and spotted the first instances of demand destruction and slowing wage growth, things have gone from medicore at best to simply dire.

Not that one would necessarily get that sense reading the summary of overall economic activity which was relatively cheerful, with the Fed noting that all twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported “continued economic growth since the prior Beige Book period, with a majority indicating slight or modest growth” and four Districts indicated moderate growth. To be sure, it is notable that the Fed admitted that four Districts explicitly noted that the pace of growth had slowed since the prior period, even as contacts in most Districts reported ongoing growth in manufacturing.

On the other hand, a glimpse of the real underlying weakness emerged when the Fed warned that “some softening as consumers faced higher prices, and residential real estate contacts observed weakness as buyers faced high prices and rising interest rates.” Still, contacts tended to cite “labor market difficulties as their greatest challenge, followed by supply chain disruptions” in other words, the covid/China legacy bottlenecks remain, even though soaring inflation is finally destroying the most demand in years. And indeed, “rising interest rates, general inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and disruptions from COVID-19 cases (especially in the Northeast) round out the key concerns impacting household and business plans.”

Most ominous of all, whereas eight Districts reported that expectations of future growth among their contacts had diminished; “contacts in three Districts specifically expressed concerns about a recession.” And if the Fed will state that publicly, it means that all 12 Fed districts are starting to freak out.

Some more details from the reports, starting with Labor Markets

• Most Districts reported that employment rose modestly or moderately in a labor market that all Districts described as tight.
• One District explicitly reported that the pace of job growth had slowed, but some firms in most of the coastal Districts noted hiring freezes or other signs that market tightness had begun to ease.
• However, worker shortages continued to force many firms to operate below capacity. In response, firms continued to deploy automation, offer greater job flexibility, and raise wages.
• In a majority of Districts, firms reported strong wage growth, whereas most others reported moderate growth.
• However, in a few Districts, firms noted that wage rate increases were leveling off or edging down.
• Moreover, while firms throughout the country generally anticipate wages to rise further over the next year, one District indicated that its firms’ expected rate of wage growth has fallen for two consecutive quarters.

And moving on to prices, where demand destruction is starting to really ramp up:

• Most Districts noted that their contacts had reported strong or robust price increases – especially for input prices.
• Two Districts noted that this rapid inflation was a continuation of trend; however, three Districts observed that price increases for their own goods or services had moderated somewhat – across the board (among Philadelphia firms) or for some segments (used cars in Boston and manufacturing in Richmond).
• About half of the Districts observed that many contacts maintained pricing power – passing costs on to clients and consumers, often with fuel surcharges. However, more than half of the Districts cited some customer pushback, such as smaller volume purchases or substitution of less expensive brands.
• Surveys in two Districts pegged year-ahead increases of their selling prices as ranging from 4 to 5 percent; moreover, one District noted that its firms’ price expectations have edged down for two consecutive quarters.

Elsewhere, several months of improvement (i.e. reduction) in mentions of shortages, recall that the March Beige Book saw a modest deterioration, with “mentions” of shortage rising from 55 in January to 60 in March. Well, in April the word “shortage” was used just 52 times, the fewest since April of 2021, and that number dropped again in June to just 41. It appears that supply-chains, at least from the Fed’s perspective, are no longer broken.

However, while the easing in shortages was more than offset by another month of sharply higher mentions of the word “rising”, which was used no less than 55 times, almost double the 32 times in March and just shy of the record 57 recorded last month – – usually in the context of prices or joblessness…

… it was a new word that caught our attention in June. As shown below, instances of the word “slow” and its variants exploded to 62, more than doubling from 27 in April, and surpassing the economic collapse levels observed in Q1 2022.

That’s right: while the Fed won’t openly admit it – after all doing so would be tantamount to losing all credibility and seeing stocks explode at a time when Biden is pressuring Powell to crash stocks and spark deflation – the central bank is openly freaking out about the coming recession. One just has to read between the lines, or rather the lines, to figure it out. We expect the broader market will do so shortly.

Source: Beige Book

Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

If you listen to economists and those watching the wave of inflation that is sweeping over us you will hear many of these people predicting it will soon abate. A huge part of their argument being the best cure for high prices is high prices. This is because high prices bring about demand destruction. Taking this to the next level some are looking towards an economic slowdown, a recession, or worse.

Still, with so much money stashed away and so few real tangible assets there is no guarantee inflation will slow or that we will see deflation. For years, central banks across the world claimed the lack of inflation was the key that allowed them to adopt and deploy their QE policy. It was central to their ability to stimulate. The moment inflation began to take root much of their flexibility was lost. Already a great deal of inflation has been baked into our future.

We should not be deceived or led to believe that lower oil and commodity prices will in themselves bring about deflation. Often falling prices in both commodities and goods reflect a lack of demand or temporary supply imbalance that will correct itself. When that happens prices tend to rapidly adjust to reflect the “new reality of the day.” In this case, it is very likely that higher prices are here to stay and even move higher. While inflation is painful, it could be argued that stagflation is even worse.

Inflation Is Not Limited To Manufactured Goods

Inflation is not limited to manufactured consumer goods. Currently, prices are surging in the service sector as well as fees, tolls, and taxes. People tend to forget just how much government spending is done at the local and state level. For these entities simply printing more money is not an option for eliminating revenue shortfalls. This translates into a slew of revenue-driven schemes originating on the local level that come back around to drive up the cost of living.

The huge number of people that work for the government or in quasi-government positions that will never agree to a wage cut create a floor under incomes. Throw in supply chain disruptions that are causing productivity to drop and a troubled energy sector and you have a recipe for soaring prices. Of course, a great deal will depend on where the wealth that escapes the meltdown expected in the stock market flows. I expect that amount will be substantial.

A number of people are predicting this money will flow into bonds causing bond yields to drop. While this could happen it is possible a lot of this money could flow into tangible goods that increase in value during times of inflation. It is important to remember inflation is not all about interest rates. A huge part of Fed policy is rooted in quantitative easing and tightening. Asset valuation growth is greatly dependent on the liquidity resulting from the unfettered flow of new money and credit. When all is said and done liquidity and money supply matter far more than interest rates.

Circling back to the idea there is no guarantee a slowing economy will slow inflation, part of the problem is fees, tolls, and taxes could surge higher. When we look at where inflation has occurred during the last decade or so we find it centered in areas where the government has expanded its influence. Inflation is not just prevalent in manufactured consumer goods. Two areas where inflation has run rampant that rapidly come to mind are healthcare and education. A less often noticed area that carries massive implications over time is the broken legal system but that is its own story.

Other sectors where the government is moving prices higher are utility bills, new construction, and the cost of providing local services such as police and fire protection. This is why the next surge in inflation or higher cost to consumers, regardless of the pace of economic growth, might well come from huge increases in fees and taxes. An example I have used in the past of surging tolls was highlighted in a Philadelphia Inquirer op-ed. In 2008, it cost just $15.25 to travel across the state from New Jersey to Ohio, over the years this has jumped to $61.20.

State And Local Governments Need Revenue

People tend to forget just how much government spending is done on the local and state level where simply printing more money is not an option for eliminating revenue shortfalls. The theory is based on the fact local and state governments have hidden and masked the size of their growth and financial promises from the public. A factor many people fail to grasp is just how much government has expanded over the years. Governments mask growth by “outsourcing” a great deal of the work their workers had been doing. Another place this sneaks under the radar is in the huge growth of “quasi-government ” entities such as airport authorities and downtown improvement districts which are able to levy special taxes.

Since state and local governments lack the federal government’s ability to print money and buy back their own debt they must pay higher interest based on their credit rating. As a state or local government’s debt rises so does the amount of interest they must offer to sell their bonds. The damage this can cause is becoming evident in Illinois which is the poster child for dysfunctional state and local governance.

The average Joe or Jo may not see many of these increases in fees and taxes aimed at increasing revenue because they are not assessed against them personally. Still, they do directly affect businesses and landlords which are forced to eventually pass on the added cost to consumers. Often this is through higher prices. Another way to do this is by transferring responsibilities, limiting warranties, or reducing goods and services that had been previously provided.

In the end, tolls, taxes, increased cost for permits, dropping productivity, and fines flow back into society and our economy in a complex way with intricate ramifications to America’s ability to compete going forward. Inefficient and wasteful government does have a cost and it must be paid. It will as I have outlined above come in many forms. Do not be surprised if these extra costs really begin to hammer brick and mortar retailers as well as commercial real estate across America. If so, we will all be forced to pay the price of this “cost-shifting” through inflation and a lower standard of living.

Hunter Biden, who dated his late brother’s wife Hallie, had an obsession with ‘MILF crack cocaine porn,’ lonely widows, and incest fantasies, according to his internet search history covering just six days before his laptop broke in March 2019.

According to the Daily Mail, Hunter also loved filming himself banging prostitutes and then uploading them to his own Pornhub account, “RHEast,” none of which showed Hunter’s face.

In one instance, Hunter texted a Pornhub page to a phone number saved in his contacts as “Dad” on Oct. 22, 2018 – however the Mail points out that Hunter and Joe Biden used each other’s phone numbers at various times – so it’s unclear if Joe was the intended recipient.

Then we get to widow porn…

Hunter, who had a controversial relationship with his brother’s widow, also repeatedly searched Pornhub for videos involving widows, including ‘Homemade widow porn‘, ‘Homemade lonely widow porn’ and ‘Lonely widow porn‘.

The Biden son, who was 49 at the time, searched for porn videos involving teenagers according to his browsing history.

Videos he visited included ‘18 Yrs old and really Good at Riding D***’, ‘TEENFIDELITY Country Girl Raylin Ann C****pie’ and ‘Lucky Foreign Student Stripped & F***ed by Horny Teen Pals’. -Daily Mail

And Hunter’s seven searches for “Washington DC Milf Crack Cocaine” right before he dropped the laptop off for repair.

Hunter’s Pornhub stats show he’s watched 3,361 videos, had 24 subscribers and 66 ‘friends’ on the site. He went under the name “Harper,” a 45-year-old single, heterosexual male living in Paris.

According to the report, Hunter may have also been spying on his lover Hallie – accusing her at one point of sleeping with a family friend. Hunter kept spreadsheets full of text messages from Hallie’s phone, along with call logs.

In one testy exchange on February 6, 2017, Hunter texted Hallie and a family friend what appears to be a transcript of private texts between the man and Hallie.

‘If you can possibly explain this as something innocent and – [the man] is just such a food friend then I will apologize,’ Hunter wrote to them.

Hunter wrote to the family friend ‘…if I sent this to your girlfriend when you were away (I went to CA for Rehab) AND 87 other texts just in march would you be OK with that?’

In the text transcript, [the man] texts Hallie on March 3, 2016: ‘Come pls. Need you here. One drink and I’ll fill you in when you get here. For real. I need you.’

Hallie replies: ‘Feel free to stay here I’m in bed’ and [the friend] responds ‘I probably will’.

After Hunter sent them the transcript, [the friend] responded angrily denying any romantic involvement with Hallie.

‘I’ve blocked all of you on my phone. The idea that I lied to you about Hallie is so f***ing laughable,’ he wrote.

‘I will never talk to Hallie ever again until she tells you I never gave her any idea that I was interested in her. It’s f***ing so pathetic. -Daily Mail

Hunter was also a huge fan of sex cam sites according to his search history, including the site Glasscams.com. Recordings of interactions between a naked Hunter and camgirls were also found.

The aristocrats!

Hunter Biden shared porn links with father Joe Biden.

Remember this family is “Restoring the soul of America”
https://t.co/u9tSozmAST

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) June 1, 2022

Amid a wall of relatively hawkish Fed Speak today (all pronouncing the economy’s ‘underlying strength’), this morning’s Manufacturing survey data raised the threat level for stagflation and prompted The Atlanta Fed to slash its forecast for Q2 GDP growth from +1.9% to +1.3%… getting ever closer to recession (after Q1’s contraction).

As The Atlanta Fed writes, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on June 1, down from 1.9 percent on May 27.

After this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, and this morning’s construction spending report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 4.7 percent and -6.4 percent, respectively, to 4.4 percent and -8.2 percent, respectively.

This makes some sense given the recent collapse in macro data relative to expectations…

And longer-term, the trend towards stagflation could not be clearer…

And thus increasingly problematic for The Fed, as the jawboning is driving rate-hike expectations higher once again…

Meaning The Fed is hiking rates into a recession.