Stagflation Threat Soars As Manufacturing Surveys Show Soaring Costs, Weaker Jobs

Stagflation Threat Soars As Manufacturing Surveys Show Soaring Costs, Weaker Jobs

With US Macro Surprise data in freefall throughout May, expectations were for Manufacturing sentiment surveys to slide (ISM extending its weakness and PMI confirming its flash dip).

  • S&P Global US Manufacturing missed, falling from 59.2 in April to 57.5 in preliminary May to 57.0 final for May – the lowest since January 2022

  • US ISM Manufacturing beat, bouncing from 55.4 in April to 56.1 in May, better than the expected drop to 54.5.

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood of the PMI report, things were even worse with the smell of stagflation in the air as cost inflation soaring at its fastest since Nov 2021’s all-time high and production and new orders slowing. Additionally, backlogs dropped to their lowest since Feb 2021.

Inventory additions appeared to provide support for ISM’s surprise gains…

But, the ISM report added to the pain with prices remaining at near extreme highs (and printing hotter than expected), while ISM Employment tumbled to 49.4 (in contraction for the first time since Nov 2020)…

Source: Bloomberg

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“A solid expansion of manufacturing output in May should help drive an increase in GDP during the second quarter, with production growth running well above the average seen over the past decade. However, the rate of growth has slowed as producers report ongoing issues with supply chain delays and labor shortages, as well as slower demand growth.

A cooling in new orders growth was in part linked to customers pushing back on high prices, though also reflected shortages and growing concern about the outlook.

Input cost pressures meanwhile intensified further during the month. Although delivery delays were the least widespread for 16 months, pricing power remained firmly in the hands of the supplier, with rising energy, wage and transportation costs adding to firms’ cost burdens. The result was the steepest rise in costs since November, feeding through to yet another near-record factory gate price increase and serving as a reminder that inflationary pressures remain worryingly elevated.”

These reports are not what The Fed wanted to see – yes, it appears the economy is slowing (perhaps on Fed hikes and jawboning), but slower growth is NOT leading to slower price acceleration.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 10:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/yrfSIT9 Tyler Durden

The Death of Walt Disney’s Private Dream City?


v6

Once upon a time, a man named Walt wanted to build a city—nay, a kingdom—in Florida swampland.

In 1964, the Disney company began secretly purchasing 27,400 acres in small parcels and stitching them together to form a landmass roughly the size of Manhattan. Walt Disney wanted plenty of space to keep the type of tacky tourist shops that encircled Disneyland—plopped in the middle of Anaheim, California—from encroaching on his new kingdom.

“There’s enough land here [in Central Florida] to hold all the ideas and plans we could possibly imagine,” Disney said in a filmed presentation that was aired for local lawmakers as part of a bid to convince them that his extraordinary dream required extraordinary powers: Total control over the land so that politics couldn’t interfere with Disney World’s development.

The centerpiece of Disney’s pitch was EPCOT, the Experimental Prototype City of Tomorrow, which a narrator in the presentation describes as a “dynamic, urban center” featuring a “variety of activities found only in metropolitan cities,” which would eventually be home to 20,000 residents.

Though he passed away in 1966 before the plan came to fruition, Walt Disney got his wish. The year following his death, local lawmakers approved the creation of the Reedy Creek Improvement District, a remarkable experiment in private governance that has thrived for the past 55 years.

Enter Republican Governor Ron DeSantis.

“Disney should not run its own government,” Florida’s governor said at an April 25 press conference. 

In March, Disney CEO Bob Chapek issued an internal memo stating that the company opposed a law that was recently passed in Florida banning public school classroom discussion or instruction about sexual orientation and gender identity in grades K-3.

DeSantis, whose office didn’t respond to our interview request, reacted by dissolving the Reedy Creek Improvement District as of June 1, 2023, which would bring this half-century experiment in semi-privatized governance to an end.

Walt Disney’s project in Florida was in part inspired by the futuristic vision of the 1964 World’s Fair, overseen by his personal friend, Robert Moses. The company had showcased future EPCOT attractions there, such as the People Mover and Carousel of Progress. It later hired the executive vice president of the World’s Fair to oversee the construction of Disney World.

Disneyland California became “a social center, a center of national and international tourism,” according to Austrian-born L.A.-based urban designer Victor Gruen, who was also the visionary behind the indoor shopping mall. He called it a prime example of cellular urbanism, where a dense pedestrian-friendly central business district is the “heart” of the city, with arteries running into it from the outer residential and recreational areas.

Walt Disney, who reportedly kept a copy of Gruen’s book The Heart of Our Cities on hand, wanted his Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow to be a showcase of the first true cellular city.

“EPCOT will always be a showcase to the world or the ingenuity and imagination of American free enterprise,” said Disney in his filmed presentation. 

While EPCOT never became the functional city of 20,000 residents that the company had promised, the free rein that the Reedy Creek Improvement District gave Disney over the development of its land resulted in a city-sized network of attractions that have had a profound influence on urban planning.

Disney has inspired planned communities, not to mention competing theme parks, throughout Florida, which has more than 1,200 special governance districts.

The company built and maintains a vast transportation infrastructure, including a monorail system that carries about 150,000 guests a day connecting with a network of buses, shuttles, trams, cable cars, and boats to move guests between its four theme parks, two water parks, shopping and recreation centers, sports complex, campground, and more than 25 resort hotels.

Disney World’s governance model was also influential as a strategy for dealing with the red tape endemic to local planning boards. Moses exemplified one model of circumventing local politics: He never held elected office, yet remade the landscape of New York through his control of the state’s powerful public agencies, empowered to borrow money and seize land through eminent domain. And Moses had little accountability, so he bulldozed neighborhoods and nearly flattened Manhattan’s SoHo with an expressway.

While Moses ran roughshod over established communities, Disney opted to build a new economy in Central Florida on mostly undeveloped land with his strategic real estate purchases and special district exempting him from the politics of zoning and land use regulation.

“We think the need is for starting from scratch on virgin land and building a special kind of new community,” Walt Disney told Florida lawmakers in his presentation. 

The result was a more effective model of governing land use: Because the Reedy Creek board is appointed and funded by a company with an incentive to create a highly functional design, the project met the needs of its customers, i.e., hundreds of thousands of daily guests visiting and lodging at the property while keeping costs in line.

“Disney has benefited from the Reedy Creek improvement district because it gets to control everything, says Richard Foglesong, author of Married to the Mouse: Walt Disney World and Orlando, the definitive history of the Disney corporation’s relationship with Florida’s government. “I call it ‘the Vatican with mouse ears.'”

He says that the company’s special jurisdiction insulated it from county planning department interference, which is what made Disney World’s distinctive architecture possible.

“They were building Cinderella’s castle 278 feet high made of fiberglass,” says Foglesong. “You wouldn’t find a provision for that…in a building code.

But creating unique building codes didn’t mean skimping on safety. Disney hired a nationally recognized building code expert as well as a former general in the Army Corps of Engineers to oversee Disney World’s construction.

“They wanted to make sure that the tourists who come here are safe. Otherwise, they might sue,” says Foglesong. “So there was a financial incentive for the Disney company to conduct its inspections honorably and responsibly. And they weren’t sure they would get that from a municipal government.”

Legally, the Reedy Creek Improvement District started as a special drainage district so that the company would have municipal authority to empty the swamp that it planned to build over. But, with approval from the state legislature, it morphed into a full-fledged government with its own fire department, hospital, water, and power systems, and even the right—though never exercised—to form its own police department. It had the authority to build a nuclear power plant within the district, which it never pursued, perhaps because that would have invited onerous federal regulation.

What’s remarkable is how fast Disney’s dream came together: The company transformed 2,500 acres of undeveloped swampland into the Disney World complex in just four years.

The Magic Kingdom opened to the public on October 1, 1971.

Disney World also inspired future experiments in private governance, including a variety of attempts to build charter cities run by private corporations in Central America and African countries with the goal of spurring economic growth by preserving personal liberty.

“Disney World in some ways has a lot of similarities with charter cities,” said Mark Lutter, president of the Charter Cities Institute on a podcast, also noting that Disney did fall short of its stated goal to build a revolutionary charter city. “Disney World does show this mechanism of devolving authority and market mechanisms being reasonably effective.”

Internal documents that Foglesong discovered in the Disney archives in Burbank, California, show that Walt Disney was adamant in the early stages of development that no permanent citizens reside in the Reedy Creek Improvement District, which was a way of keeping a democratically elected government at bay.

“They were afraid of democracy,” says Foglesong. “They well understood that if people actually lived in the district…they would be able to vote there. And Walt didn’t want that. They wanted planning and zoning authority, but not at the cost of having real residents who could vote there.” 

Disney did create two adjacent residential cities, Bay Lake and Lake Buena Vista, with a combined population of little more than 50 permanent residents who get to elect the local government officials. Voters must own an acre of land in the district to participate in the Reedy Creek elections. Those voting-eligible residents, says Foglesong, are all trusted, long-term Disney employees.

“So those are like company towns,” says Fogelsong. “[The arrangement] makes it possible to do things that would not be possible in the real world.” 

Disney was so protective of Reedy Creek’s autonomy that when former CEO Michael Eisner created the residential city of Celebration on the property in 1996, he actually de-annexed it from the Reedy Creek Improvement District prior to residents moving into their homes so as not to risk the intrusion of politics.

Such intrusion of politics into semi-autonomous zones was on display earlier this year in Honduras, a country hobbled by bureaucracy, corruption, and weak property rights. In 2013, Honduras had passed a national law authorizing autonomous zones that could be run by private companies, which paved the way for several attempts to build charter cities protected from local politics. But after the election of the Democratic Socialist Xiomara Castro earlier this year, the government repealed that law, undermining the charter city movement.

And this underscores one of the hazards of building private cities: Their autonomy is vulnerable to the whims of populist politicians from the left and the right.

When DeSantis signed the Parental Rights in Education bill into law in March 2022, a national media firestorm ensued. Critics had dubbed the bill the “Don’t Say Gay” law, arguing that it would potentially punish school staff who even acknowledged the existence of gay or transgender identities.

The text of the law says that “classroom instruction by school personnel or third parties on sexual orientation or gender identity may not occur” in grades K-3 and that school personnel may only broach the subject in older grades in a manner “age-appropriate or developmentally appropriate” as determined by standards that the Florida Department of Education will set.

Disney, a famously LGBT-friendly company, responded to employee complaints with a letter from Chapek issuing an apology for the company’s silence during the debate over the bill, calling the new law a “challenge to human rights,” promising to donate corporate funds to “combat similar legislation in other states” and pause “all political donations in the state of Florida.”

DeSantis and his allies in the state legislature then targeted Reedy Creek.

“Reedy Creek gives [Disney] a competitive advantage that their competitors do not have,” says state Rep. Randy Fine, a Republican, who introduced the bill dissolving Reedy Creek in the Florida House. Disney announced they were going to use the special privileges that the state had given them to make it a priority to repeal a bill that we never passed: The supposed ‘Don’t Say Gay’ bill. We thought that was a little bit out of line, and that created this groundswell of support to start to take a look at things like this.”

Reedy Creek does grant Disney some advantages beyond streamlining zoning and building codes: The district can issue tax-exempt bonds to finance infrastructure improvements on the property, and Disney doesn’t incur the same improvement fees when it develops its land that other companies operating under more traditional governance structures in Florida do.

But the company covers the cost of its own municipal services by paying, as of 2022, $164 million in annual taxes to Reedy Creek on top of the property taxes it pays the counties, and it reimburses the local sheriff’s department for its presence on the property.

Foglesong says Walt Disney wasn’t after tax breaks.

“Through the [Reedy Creek Improvement District] the Disney Company, believe it or not, taxes itself to be able to produce particular public services and build particular infrastructure that are specific to its own needs,” says Foglesong. “The company clearly wants to retain those powers… not because it’s money-saving for them, but rather because it produces efficiency for them.”

Fine tells Reason that he rejects “the premise that [dissolving Reedy Creek] was retaliation” by Florida’s GOP-controlled government against Disney but that “when you kick the hornet’s nest, sometimes issues pop up.”

“What has been going on here is, I believe…woke leftists have just simply bullied [large corporations], screamed and yelled and thrown temper tantrums. And so companies go, ‘What’s the path of least resistance? Fine, fine, fine. We’ll throw you a bone,'” says Fine. “Well, they’re now learning in Florida, there’s a cost to doing that.”

He also says that Florida will look like a more attractive state for investors when Disney gets the same treatment as all its competitors and that it’s irresponsible to allow a company to accrue what he calls “government debt.”

But unlike normal municipal bond debt that’s typically repaid through taxation of local residents, Reedy Creek’s bonds have been backed by the revenue of the Disney company, though that could change if the district is dissolved.

Florida’s Orange County tax collector estimates the dissolution could lead to a 15-20 percent property tax increase in the county to compensate bondholders for Reedy Creek’s more than $1 billion debt and cover the millions of dollars of annual expenses in maintaining the property’s infrastructure.

“I don’t see how the governor and the state legislature…are going to be able to finalize this step to dissolve the Reedy Creek Improvement District and not leave taxpayers and voters having to compensate the Disney company,” says Foglesong. 

Fine says that Orange and Osceola counties could set up their own special taxing districts to target Disney and make up for the shortfall. DeSantis has suggested absorbing Reedy Creek into the state government to continue extracting Disney’s money.

But Foglesong expects that Disney and the state of Florida will reach a compromise to save Reedy Creek before the June 2023 deadline.

“There are…too many children for this divorce to occur. The Reedy Creek Improvement District, in my opinion, is something like a prenuptial agreement that protected Disney’s powers into the future,” says Foglesong. 

But Fine says the fact that Disney never turned EPCOT into a city of 20,000 residents as promised means that “the marriage was created on false pretenses.”

“We’re not interested in getting in the way of free speech, but when a visitor to our state says, we’re going to use special privileges that we’ve been given to retaliate…That’s a slap in the face to the people of Florida, and we’re not going to put up with it,” says Fine.

If Disney is indeed a visitor to Florida, it’s made the kind of long visit that lasts more than half a century. Fine maintains that the company was “acting like a visitor” by demanding that Floridians “accept [their] California values in the state of Florida.”

“A Florida company wouldn’t have done this,” says Fine. 

So, if Reedy Creek is dissolved, what’s the legacy of Walt Disney’s dream city built from scratch on a Florida swamp?

It’s true that no other company was ever able to secure the kind of autonomy that Disney did in Florida, though special districts proliferate throughout the state, and a more libertarian state legislature might even consider giving the “Disney deal” to other landowners.

Disney has created a world-class destination, contributing to Florida’s status as the top international tourist destination in the United States, as DeSantis’ press secretary recently boasted. Disney World has also served as a model of land use studied worldwide by businesses and governments.

Even though handing control over a large swath of land to a private company may annoy local politicians resentful of relinquishing even a micron of power, the results speak for themselves. The Reedy Creek Improvement District, in its half-century of life so far, has offered a glimpse of what’s possible when land development is governed by a private company with a long-term stake rather than the political whims and interests of elected officials.

“Disney World is in many ways the city dedicated to free enterprise,” says Fogelsong. “Without residents, true. Without democracy. But with a reliance on a private corporation to efficiently provide public services. So it is kind of amazing that self-described conservatives now would want to take away from a well-known and pretty beloved company the ability to privatize public services and to deregulate.”

Or, as Walt Disney put it in his closing remarks in the presentation aired for Florida lawmakers in 1967:

“We can create right here in Disney World, a showcase to the world of the American free enterprise system. I believe we can build a community that more people will talk about and come to look at than any other area in the world.”

Produced by Zach Weissmueller; edited by Danielle Thompson and Weissmueller. 

Photo credits: Paul Hennessy/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Douglas R. Clifford/ZUMA Press/Newscom; https://www.flickr.com/photos/8363028@N08/; Paul Hennessy/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Oliver Tsang/SCMP/Newscom;  Inti Oncon/dpa/picture-alliance/Newscom; Pietro Recchia/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Douglas R. Clifford/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Splash News / Duke Energy/Newscom; Orlando Sentinel File/TNS/Newscom; Paul Hennessy / SOPA Images/Sipa/Newscom; Douglas R. Clifford/ZUMA Press/Newscom.

Music: “Aquarium” by Wolf Samuels via Artlist; “Ganymede” by Yehezkel Raz via Artlist; “Morning Sunbeams” by Yehezkel Raz via Artlist; “Lost on Earth” by Marek Jakubowicz via Artlist; “Ripples” by Tamuz Dekel via Artlist; “Machina” by Jameson Nathan Jones via Artlist; “Signals” by Jameson Nathan Jones via Artlist; “High” by Audiopanther via Artlist; “Distant Worlds” by Theatre of Delays via Artlist; “Leopard’s Stalk” by Hans Johnson via Artlist

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Texas Can’t Start Enforcing Social Media Law, Says SCOTUS


george-pagan-iii-f-PH16nZHKI-unsplash

The Supreme Court has temporarily blocked enforcement of a Texas tech law. The law treats large social media platforms like common carriers and prohibits them from making independent decisions about content moderation.

Specifically, the law bans large tech companies from viewpoint-based blocking, restricting, or editorializing about social media content—a purview large enough to prevent platforms from moderating even the types of content that few would object to a private company limiting. It also requires them to set up an appeal system for users whose content is removed.

The U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas held last December that the Texas social media law was unconstitutional. But the law recently scored a win with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, which in May issued a stay on the district court’s decision.

That meant Texas was free to start enforcing the law.

In response, tech industry groups NetChoice and the Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA) asked the Supreme Court to intervene and vacate the 5th Circuit’s stay.

And now it has, in a 5-4 decision issued Tuesday.

The majority—a conservative-liberal mix that included Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett—did not offer reasoning for their ruling.

A dissent penned by Justice Samuel Alito, joined by Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch, can be found here. Justice Elena Kagan also dissented.

SCOTUS’ decision means that Texas cannot start trying to treat large internet platforms like common carriers while the case plays out. But the 5th Circuit is still mulling the merits of the NetChoice and CCIA case against the law.


FREE MINDS

Data on fentanyl seizures at the Southern border challenges the conservative narrative:


FREE MARKETS

Will the city of Austin defy a potential Texas law criminalizing abortion? The state law—which makes it a felony to perform an abortion—will go into effect if Roe v. Wade is overturned. Some believe the law’s language is loose enough that it would criminalize not just abortion doctors but women who try to self-induce an abortion with medication.
But in Austin, “Councilmember Chito Vela is proposing a resolution that would direct the city’s police department to make criminal enforcement, arrest and investigation of abortions its lowest priority and restrict city funds and city staff from being used to investigate, catalogue or report suspected abortions,” notes Politico.

“This is not an academic conversation,” Vela told Politico. “This is a very real conversation where people’s lives could be destroyed by these criminal prosecutions. In Texas, you’re an adult at 17. We are looking at the prospect of a 17-year-old girl who has an unplanned pregnancy and is seeking an abortion [being] subjected to first-degree felony charges — up to 99 years in jail — and that’s just absolutely unacceptable.”


FOLLOWUP

• News that the Uvalde, Texas, shooter entered Robb Elementary School through a door a teacher left propped open turns out to be false. Video footage shows the teacher shutting the door, which was supposed to lock automatically when closed but for some reason did not.

• “The Uvalde Police Department and the Uvalde Independent School District police force are no longer cooperating with the Texas Department of Public Safety’s investigation into the massacre at Robb Elementary School and the state’s review of the law enforcement response,” reports ABC News.

• The first funerals for victims of the Uvalde shooting were held on Tuesday for 10-year-old Amerie Joe Garza and for Ellie Garcia, who would have turned 10 on Saturday. “This week alone there will be 11 funerals,” The Texas Tribune reports.


QUICK HITS

• The Department of Justice is appealing the court ruling ending the federal mask mandate on airplanes and other transit.

• A new Gallup poll on economic confidence finds “the lowest reading in Gallup’s trend during the coronavirus pandemic, and likely the lowest confidence has been since the tail end of the Great Recession in early 2009.”

• “The good news is that there are some promising technical solutions for making plastics infinitely recyclable on the horizon,” writes Reason‘s Ron Bailey in response to a recent Atlantic article that said plastics recycling will never work so single-use plastics should be banned.

• Are Democrats souring on Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D–Minn.) antitrust bill?

• A reminder that J.D. Vance wants to ban porn.

• What?

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Free PACER! (Or At Least Free PACER Docket Searches)

The Judicial Conference of the United States has endorsed ending fees for online docket searches through PACER, at least for noncommercial users. Charges may continue for downloading documents, however.

Here is the relevant language from the Judicial Conference’s report on the Conference’s March proceedings:

The judiciary provides electronic public access to court documents primarily through the Public Access to Court Electronic Records (PACER) service, which, pursuant to Public Law No. 102-140, is funded by electronic public access (EPA) user fees set by the judiciary. Congress does not appropriate funds for the operation of the PACER service. Except in limited circumstances, PACER users are charged a per page fee for searches, with no fee owed unless a PACER account holder accrues charges of more than $30.00 in a quarterly billing cycle (JCUS-SEP 2019, p. 9). The Committee on Court Administration and Case Management considered feedback from the Administrative Office’s EPA Working Group on the feasibility of the Committee’s proposal to make PACER searches free for non-commercial users. Noting that making searches free would require extensive development work to the current PACER system and all operational versions of the Case Management/Electronic Case Files system (currently 17) and impact several aspects of the EPA program, including fee revenue, program requirements, and system performance, the Working Group recommended that the Committee endorse making searches free for non-commercial users in any future modernized systems. After considering this feedback, the Committee on Court Administration and Case Management recommended that the Conference endorse making all searches free of charge for all non-commercial users of any future new modernized case management, electronic filing, and public access systems implemented by the judiciary. The Conference endorsed the proposal.

This change has been a long time in coming. As Reuters reports, the move comes as Congress is considering even more far-reaching reforms to increase access to federal court filings and materials.

The plan to eliminate some, though not all, of those fees and modernize PACER came as Congress considers whether to pass the Open Courts Act, a bill that would require the judiciary to update PACER and make downloading filings free for the public.

The Senate Judiciary Committee in a bipartisan vote in December advanced the bill to the full Senate for its consideration. The U.S. House of Representatives during the last Congress passed a similar bill in 2020.

The judiciary has raised concerns about the bill’s impact on its own efforts to modernize PACER and how eliminating user fees would affect revenue to support it. The judiciary projects it will collect about $142 million in fees this fiscal year.

A cynical read would be that the Judicial Conference is acting so as to forestall more sweeping legislative reforms. Whether this is the cause or not, eliminating fees for PACER docket searches is a positive and long overdue step.

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The Death of Walt Disney’s Private Dream City?


v6

Once upon a time, a man named Walt wanted to build a city—nay, a kingdom—in Florida swampland.

In 1964, the Disney company began secretly purchasing 27,400 acres in small parcels and stitching them together to form a landmass roughly the size of Manhattan. Walt Disney wanted plenty of space to keep the type of tacky tourist shops that encircled Disneyland—plopped in the middle of Anaheim, California—from encroaching on his new kingdom.

“There’s enough land here [in Central Florida] to hold all the ideas and plans we could possibly imagine,” Disney said in a filmed presentation that was aired for local lawmakers as part of a bid to convince them that his extraordinary dream required extraordinary powers: Total control over the land so that politics couldn’t interfere with Disney World’s development.

The centerpiece of Disney’s pitch was EPCOT, the Experimental Prototype City of Tomorrow, which a narrator in the presentation describes as a “dynamic, urban center” featuring a “variety of activities found only in metropolitan cities,” which would eventually be home to 20,000 residents.

Though he passed away in 1966 before the plan came to fruition, Walt Disney got his wish. The year following his death, local lawmakers approved the creation of the Reedy Creek Improvement District, a remarkable experiment in private governance that has thrived for the past 55 years.

Enter Republican Governor Ron DeSantis.

“Disney should not run its own government,” Florida’s governor said at an April 25 press conference. 

In March, Disney CEO Bob Chapek issued an internal memo stating that the company opposed a law that was recently passed in Florida banning public school classroom discussion or instruction about sexual orientation and gender identity in grades K-3.

DeSantis, whose office didn’t respond to our interview request, reacted by dissolving the Reedy Creek Improvement District as of June 1, 2023, which would bring this half-century experiment in semi-privatized governance to an end.

Walt Disney’s project in Florida was in part inspired by the futuristic vision of the 1964 World’s Fair, overseen by his personal friend, Robert Moses. The company had showcased future EPCOT attractions there, such as the People Mover and Carousel of Progress. It later hired the executive vice president of the World’s Fair to oversee the construction of Disney World.

Disneyland California became “a social center, a center of national and international tourism,” according to Austrian-born L.A.-based urban designer Victor Gruen, who was also the visionary behind the indoor shopping mall. He called it a prime example of cellular urbanism, where a dense pedestrian-friendly central business district is the “heart” of the city, with arteries running into it from the outer residential and recreational areas.

Walt Disney, who reportedly kept a copy of Gruen’s book The Heart of Our Cities on hand, wanted his Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow to be a showcase of the first true cellular city.

“EPCOT will always be a showcase to the world or the ingenuity and imagination of American free enterprise,” said Disney in his filmed presentation. 

While EPCOT never became the functional city of 20,000 residents that the company had promised, the free rein that the Reedy Creek Improvement District gave Disney over the development of its land resulted in a city-sized network of attractions that have had a profound influence on urban planning.

Disney has inspired planned communities, not to mention competing theme parks, throughout Florida, which has more than 1,200 special governance districts.

The company built and maintains a vast transportation infrastructure, including a monorail system that carries about 150,000 guests a day connecting with a network of buses, shuttles, trams, cable cars, and boats to move guests between its four theme parks, two water parks, shopping and recreation centers, sports complex, campground, and more than 25 resort hotels.

Disney World’s governance model was also influential as a strategy for dealing with the red tape endemic to local planning boards. Moses exemplified one model of circumventing local politics: He never held elected office, yet remade the landscape of New York through his control of the state’s powerful public agencies, empowered to borrow money and seize land through eminent domain. And Moses had little accountability, so he bulldozed neighborhoods and nearly flattened Manhattan’s SoHo with an expressway.

While Moses ran roughshod over established communities, Disney opted to build a new economy in Central Florida on mostly undeveloped land with his strategic real estate purchases and special district exempting him from the politics of zoning and land use regulation.

“We think the need is for starting from scratch on virgin land and building a special kind of new community,” Walt Disney told Florida lawmakers in his presentation. 

The result was a more effective model of governing land use: Because the Reedy Creek board is appointed and funded by a company with an incentive to create a highly functional design, the project met the needs of its customers, i.e., hundreds of thousands of daily guests visiting and lodging at the property while keeping costs in line.

“Disney has benefited from the Reedy Creek improvement district because it gets to control everything, says Richard Foglesong, author of Married to the Mouse: Walt Disney World and Orlando, the definitive history of the Disney corporation’s relationship with Florida’s government. “I call it ‘the Vatican with mouse ears.'”

He says that the company’s special jurisdiction insulated it from county planning department interference, which is what made Disney World’s distinctive architecture possible.

“They were building Cinderella’s castle 278 feet high made of fiberglass,” says Foglesong. “You wouldn’t find a provision for that…in a building code.

But creating unique building codes didn’t mean skimping on safety. Disney hired a nationally recognized building code expert as well as a former general in the Army Corps of Engineers to oversee Disney World’s construction.

“They wanted to make sure that the tourists who come here are safe. Otherwise, they might sue,” says Foglesong. “So there was a financial incentive for the Disney company to conduct its inspections honorably and responsibly. And they weren’t sure they would get that from a municipal government.”

Legally, the Reedy Creek Improvement District started as a special drainage district so that the company would have municipal authority to empty the swamp that it planned to build over. But, with approval from the state legislature, it morphed into a full-fledged government with its own fire department, hospital, water, and power systems, and even the right—though never exercised—to form its own police department. It had the authority to build a nuclear power plant within the district, which it never pursued, perhaps because that would have invited onerous federal regulation.

What’s remarkable is how fast Disney’s dream came together: The company transformed 2,500 acres of undeveloped swampland into the Disney World complex in just four years.

The Magic Kingdom opened to the public on October 1, 1971.

Disney World also inspired future experiments in private governance, including a variety of attempts to build charter cities run by private corporations in Central America and African countries with the goal of spurring economic growth by preserving personal liberty.

“Disney World in some ways has a lot of similarities with charter cities,” said Mark Lutter, president of the Charter Cities Institute on a podcast, also noting that Disney did fall short of its stated goal to build a revolutionary charter city. “Disney World does show this mechanism of devolving authority and market mechanisms being reasonably effective.”

Internal documents that Foglesong discovered in the Disney archives in Burbank, California, show that Walt Disney was adamant in the early stages of development that no permanent citizens reside in the Reedy Creek Improvement District, which was a way of keeping a democratically elected government at bay.

“They were afraid of democracy,” says Foglesong. “They well understood that if people actually lived in the district…they would be able to vote there. And Walt didn’t want that. They wanted planning and zoning authority, but not at the cost of having real residents who could vote there.” 

Disney did create two adjacent residential cities, Bay Lake and Lake Buena Vista, with a combined population of little more than 50 permanent residents who get to elect the local government officials. Voters must own an acre of land in the district to participate in the Reedy Creek elections. Those voting-eligible residents, says Foglesong, are all trusted, long-term Disney employees.

“So those are like company towns,” says Fogelsong. “[The arrangement] makes it possible to do things that would not be possible in the real world.” 

Disney was so protective of Reedy Creek’s autonomy that when former CEO Michael Eisner created the residential city of Celebration on the property in 1996, he actually de-annexed it from the Reedy Creek Improvement District prior to residents moving into their homes so as not to risk the intrusion of politics.

Such intrusion of politics into semi-autonomous zones was on display earlier this year in Honduras, a country hobbled by bureaucracy, corruption, and weak property rights. In 2013, Honduras had passed a national law authorizing autonomous zones that could be run by private companies, which paved the way for several attempts to build charter cities protected from local politics. But after the election of the Democratic Socialist Xiomara Castro earlier this year, the government repealed that law, undermining the charter city movement.

And this underscores one of the hazards of building private cities: Their autonomy is vulnerable to the whims of populist politicians from the left and the right.

When DeSantis signed the Parental Rights in Education bill into law in March 2022, a national media firestorm ensued. Critics had dubbed the bill the “Don’t Say Gay” law, arguing that it would potentially punish school staff who even acknowledged the existence of gay or transgender identities.

The text of the law says that “classroom instruction by school personnel or third parties on sexual orientation or gender identity may not occur” in grades K-3 and that school personnel may only broach the subject in older grades in a manner “age-appropriate or developmentally appropriate” as determined by standards that the Florida Department of Education will set.

Disney, a famously LGBT-friendly company, responded to employee complaints with a letter from Chapek issuing an apology for the company’s silence during the debate over the bill, calling the new law a “challenge to human rights,” promising to donate corporate funds to “combat similar legislation in other states” and pause “all political donations in the state of Florida.”

DeSantis and his allies in the state legislature then targeted Reedy Creek.

“Reedy Creek gives [Disney] a competitive advantage that their competitors do not have,” says state Rep. Randy Fine, a Republican, who introduced the bill dissolving Reedy Creek in the Florida House. Disney announced they were going to use the special privileges that the state had given them to make it a priority to repeal a bill that we never passed: The supposed ‘Don’t Say Gay’ bill. We thought that was a little bit out of line, and that created this groundswell of support to start to take a look at things like this.”

Reedy Creek does grant Disney some advantages beyond streamlining zoning and building codes: The district can issue tax-exempt bonds to finance infrastructure improvements on the property, and Disney doesn’t incur the same improvement fees when it develops its land that other companies operating under more traditional governance structures in Florida do.

But the company covers the cost of its own municipal services by paying, as of 2022, $164 million in annual taxes to Reedy Creek on top of the property taxes it pays the counties, and it reimburses the local sheriff’s department for its presence on the property.

Foglesong says Walt Disney wasn’t after tax breaks.

“Through the [Reedy Creek Improvement District] the Disney Company, believe it or not, taxes itself to be able to produce particular public services and build particular infrastructure that are specific to its own needs,” says Foglesong. “The company clearly wants to retain those powers… not because it’s money-saving for them, but rather because it produces efficiency for them.”

Fine tells Reason that he rejects “the premise that [dissolving Reedy Creek] was retaliation” by Florida’s GOP-controlled government against Disney but that “when you kick the hornet’s nest, sometimes issues pop up.”

“What has been going on here is, I believe…woke leftists have just simply bullied [large corporations], screamed and yelled and thrown temper tantrums. And so companies go, ‘What’s the path of least resistance? Fine, fine, fine. We’ll throw you a bone,'” says Fine. “Well, they’re now learning in Florida, there’s a cost to doing that.”

He also says that Florida will look like a more attractive state for investors when Disney gets the same treatment as all its competitors and that it’s irresponsible to allow a company to accrue what he calls “government debt.”

But unlike normal municipal bond debt that’s typically repaid through taxation of local residents, Reedy Creek’s bonds have been backed by the revenue of the Disney company, though that could change if the district is dissolved.

Florida’s Orange County tax collector estimates the dissolution could lead to a 15-20 percent property tax increase in the county to compensate bondholders for Reedy Creek’s more than $1 billion debt and cover the millions of dollars of annual expenses in maintaining the property’s infrastructure.

“I don’t see how the governor and the state legislature…are going to be able to finalize this step to dissolve the Reedy Creek Improvement District and not leave taxpayers and voters having to compensate the Disney company,” says Foglesong. 

Fine says that Orange and Osceola counties could set up their own special taxing districts to target Disney and make up for the shortfall. DeSantis has suggested absorbing Reedy Creek into the state government to continue extracting Disney’s money.

But Foglesong expects that Disney and the state of Florida will reach a compromise to save Reedy Creek before the June 2023 deadline.

“There are…too many children for this divorce to occur. The Reedy Creek Improvement District, in my opinion, is something like a prenuptial agreement that protected Disney’s powers into the future,” says Foglesong. 

But Fine says the fact that Disney never turned EPCOT into a city of 20,000 residents as promised means that “the marriage was created on false pretenses.”

“We’re not interested in getting in the way of free speech, but when a visitor to our state says, we’re going to use special privileges that we’ve been given to retaliate…That’s a slap in the face to the people of Florida, and we’re not going to put up with it,” says Fine.

If Disney is indeed a visitor to Florida, it’s made the kind of long visit that lasts more than half a century. Fine maintains that the company was “acting like a visitor” by demanding that Floridians “accept [their] California values in the state of Florida.”

“A Florida company wouldn’t have done this,” says Fine. 

So, if Reedy Creek is dissolved, what’s the legacy of Walt Disney’s dream city built from scratch on a Florida swamp?

It’s true that no other company was ever able to secure the kind of autonomy that Disney did in Florida, though special districts proliferate throughout the state, and a more libertarian state legislature might even consider giving the “Disney deal” to other landowners.

Disney has created a world-class destination, contributing to Florida’s status as the top international tourist destination in the United States, as DeSantis’ press secretary recently boasted. Disney World has also served as a model of land use studied worldwide by businesses and governments.

Even though handing control over a large swath of land to a private company may annoy local politicians resentful of relinquishing even a micron of power, the results speak for themselves. The Reedy Creek Improvement District, in its half-century of life so far, has offered a glimpse of what’s possible when land development is governed by a private company with a long-term stake rather than the political whims and interests of elected officials.

“Disney World is in many ways the city dedicated to free enterprise,” says Fogelsong. “Without residents, true. Without democracy. But with a reliance on a private corporation to efficiently provide public services. So it is kind of amazing that self-described conservatives now would want to take away from a well-known and pretty beloved company the ability to privatize public services and to deregulate.”

Or, as Walt Disney put it in his closing remarks in the presentation aired for Florida lawmakers in 1967:

“We can create right here in Disney World, a showcase to the world of the American free enterprise system. I believe we can build a community that more people will talk about and come to look at than any other area in the world.”

Produced by Zach Weissmueller; edited by Danielle Thompson and Weissmueller. 

Photo credits: Paul Hennessy/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Douglas R. Clifford/ZUMA Press/Newscom; https://www.flickr.com/photos/8363028@N08/; Paul Hennessy/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Oliver Tsang/SCMP/Newscom;  Inti Oncon/dpa/picture-alliance/Newscom; Pietro Recchia/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Douglas R. Clifford/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Splash News / Duke Energy/Newscom; Orlando Sentinel File/TNS/Newscom; Paul Hennessy / SOPA Images/Sipa/Newscom; Douglas R. Clifford/ZUMA Press/Newscom.

Music: “Aquarium” by Wolf Samuels via Artlist; “Ganymede” by Yehezkel Raz via Artlist; “Morning Sunbeams” by Yehezkel Raz via Artlist; “Lost on Earth” by Marek Jakubowicz via Artlist; “Ripples” by Tamuz Dekel via Artlist; “Machina” by Jameson Nathan Jones via Artlist; “Signals” by Jameson Nathan Jones via Artlist; “High” by Audiopanther via Artlist; “Distant Worlds” by Theatre of Delays via Artlist; “Leopard’s Stalk” by Hans Johnson via Artlist

The post The Death of Walt Disney's Private Dream City? appeared first on Reason.com.

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Bank of Canada Preview: Another 50bps Rate Hike To 1.5%

Bank of Canada Preview: Another 50bps Rate Hike To 1.5%

Submitted by Newsquawk

SUMMARY:

  • The decision will be a statement only affair and there is no press conference with Governor Macklem after, although BoC Deputy governor Schembri will be speaking the following day at 16:00BST/11:00EDT for the Economic Progress report.
  • The BoC is expected to hike rates by 50bps to 1.50%. Attention in the statement will be to any clues on forward guidance to gauge the size of future rate hikes, alongside any commentary about going above neutral (seen between 2-3%) or moving in a “forceful” way to tackle inflation after the hot April CPI prints and recent commentary from Governor Macklem.
  • On QT, the Bank will likely reiterate that maturing bonds will continue to roll off the balance sheet.
  • It will also likely acknowledge above-target inflation, and the hot housing market, but reiterate it expects it to moderate, while also stressing the ongoing economic uncertainty.

RATE OUTLOOK: The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hike rates by 50bps once again in June, taking its key rate to 1.50%. A survey by Reuters found that all 30 economists expect this to be the case, in line with market pricing. The poll median showed rates at 2.25% in Q3 and 2.50% in Q4 and is expected to hike to 2.75% in Q1 23, before staying put until the end of 2023. 25 of those surveyed expect rates to rise to 2.50% or more in Q4 22, where six expect rates at 2.75% and another six see the BoC Overnight Target Rate at 3.00%, but four expect rates at 2.25%, and one sees it at 1.75%. Currently, markets are pricing in rates at 2.75% by year-end. A poll a month earlier, saw analysts expect a 25bp hike from the BoC in June, so expectations have leant hawkish in wake  of hot CPI prints and hawkish commentary.

Canadian bank RBC wrote that “the BoC is laser-focussed on taming inflation, but once the overnight rate reaches a more neutral level, it will be conscious of the potential trade-off between returning inflation expediently to target and prolonging the economic cycle”; RBC does not expect the BoC to take policy into restrictive territory (the neutral rate is estimated to be between 2-3%) unless inflation dynamics were compelling it to do so, and RBC warns that if it did, it would “amplify recession risk.” On the flip side, however, ING expects the BoC to hike above neutral to 3.5% in early 2023, but the bank will not be surprised to see the BoC mulling reversing course in late 2023 as the harder and faster it tries to tame inflation, the greater chance of an adverse reaction to the economy. Note, a Reuters poll of fourteen economists revealed a split on views on whether the current tightening would lead to an economic recession.

RECENT DATA: Canada’s CPI was hot, rising above expectations for both Y/Y and M/M rates on the core metrics and headline, while the average of the BoC measures rose to 4.23% from 3.77%, moving further away from the Central Bank’s 2% target. Employment continues to be strong and is outperforming the US labour market, although there was a slight cooling in April. Q1 GDP disappointed expectations, slowing to 3.1%, although the April MPR noted economic growth is expected to pick up to about 6% in Q2. However, any signs of growth cooldowns will be key as it could steer the BoC away from “forceful” tightening and may limit how far they go above neutral, particularly if inflation starts to cool. However, it is clear that inflation is the top priority, especially with inflation above the top end of the target range, and the Bank’s primary focus is to return this to target.

RECENT COMMENTARY: Governor Macklem said another 50bps in June is to be expected and that he will not rule out hikes of more than 50bps, although it would be very unusual for this to occur. Macklem stated the Bank is committed to using interest rates to return inflation back to target and will do so forcefully if required, adding the Bank may have to increase rates above neutral to “a bit above 2 or 3%”. Meanwhile, Senior Deputy Governor Rogers noted they cannot let demand get too far ahead of supply for the risk of adding further to inflation, calling for rates to move higher, but added they are not on autopilot and gave no mention of the word “forcefully”, unlike Governor Macklem. Deputy Governor Gravelle noted the BoC will likely increase its near-term inflation forecasts further and the current policy rate of 1% is too stimulative when inflation is running above the top of the control range. Gravelle also noted it is possible the Bank may have to raise rates above neutral as parts of the economy might be less sensitive to hikes than in the past, while stronger housing activity is another reason for rates to rise above neutral. However, he did caveat that the BoC might pause hikes as rates re-enter the neutral range. Gravelle added the broadening of price pressures is a big concern, but they are not seeing a repeat of the 1970’s style stagflation.

QT: In April, the BoC confirmed it is ending its reinvestment phase and started QT on April 25th. Little else was said other than Bank’s balance sheet will shrink over time, with roughly 40% of the Bank’s GoC bond holdings maturing within the next two years. Although a statement was released which reiterated it is not actively considering selling bonds as part of its QT process, as it will  continue to implement monetary policy via a floor system that will remain in place even after QT is over. Therefore, any further details will be eyed in this meeting, if any, although as it is a statement only affair we may not see too much and analysts expect the Bank to reiterate that maturing bonds will continue to roll off the balance sheet.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 09:50

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Biden Unveils Longer Range Rockets For Ukraine, Stresses ‘We Don’t Seek NATO-Russia War’

Biden Unveils Longer Range Rockets For Ukraine, Stresses ‘We Don’t Seek NATO-Russia War’

President Biden in an op-ed for The New York Times published Tuesday night sought to clarify his Ukraine policy amid what appears to much of the public as constant incremental escalation. Crucially, he argued the US is not seeking regime change targeting Putin, nor is Washington seeking to escalate toward war with Russia.

“We do not seek a war between NATO and Russia. As much as I disagree with Mr. Putin, and find his actions an outrage, the United States will not try to bring about his ouster in Moscow,” Biden wrote. “So long as the United States or our allies are not attacked, we will not be directly engaged in this conflict, either by sending American troops to fight in Ukraine or by attacking Russian forces,” he added.

“HIMAR” system, US Navy Image

Now in the fourth month of war since the Feb. invasion, it’s very telling that Biden would himself have to take pains to clarify this, suggesting that Moscow would perhaps be fully rational and justified seeing in Washington’s economic war and (indirect) military participation in the form of training and unprecedented arms transfers aid a commitment to fighting Russia.

It’s also no wonder than many observers might look upon America’s Ukraine policy and be “confused,” to say the least. While declaring that he doesn’t want to fight Russia, Biden in the same NY Times op-ed unveiled he’ll be sending “more advanced rocket systems and munitions” to Ukraine, which will “enable them to more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield.”

He wrote that arms already going to the Ukrainians will continue, while also pledging “billions more” in US aid. He said:

We will continue providing Ukraine with advanced weaponry, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger antiaircraft missiles, powerful artillery and precision rocket systems, radars, unmanned aerial vehicles, Mi-17 helicopters and ammunition. We will also send billions more in financial assistance, as authorized by Congress.

Biden stressed, “We have moved quickly to send Ukraine a significant amount of weaponry and ammunition so it can fight on the battlefield and be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.” However, it remains that Ukraine-Russia negotiations toward a ceasefire have been essentially non-existent over the last month, having collapsed amid accusations and mistrust following the last Istanbul talks.

Despite pledging the more advanced rocket systems, Biden suggested these will not be capable of ranges that make it easy to strike within Russia’s borders. “We are not encouraging or enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its borders,” he said in the op-ed.

He additionally claimed Washington policy is not to see a prolonged war in order “inflict pain on Russia” – but in a somewhat contradictory turn, he quickly emphasized Moscow must sill pay a “heavy price” for its aggression, in rhetoric that echoes Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s prior “weakened” Russia comments.

There’s been much speculation of late that the US could be poised to give the Ukrainians Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). However, given these have a long range of up to 190 miles, easily capable of reaching Russian territory from some frontline positions, it’s believed the US is opting for the lighter version: the HIMARS.

“Senior US administration officials confirmed to reporters on Tuesday that the United States will be sending Ukraine US-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, known as HIMARS, as part of the country’s 11th package of security assistance to Ukraine,” CNN reports Wednesday. “The officials said the HIMARS will be equipped with munitions that will allow Ukraine to launch rockets about 80 kilometers (49 miles).”

This comes after the White House appeared to reject the possibility of sending long-range rockets, fearing things could spiral toward rapid escalation with Russia, after the Kremlin declared “red lines” concerning this type of major West-supplied weaponry. The Kremlin is meanwhile issuing new warnings over the US moves to supply longer range rocket systems…

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV SAYS THERE ARE RISKS THAT A THIRD COUNTRY COULD BECOME INVOLVED IN UKRAINE CONFLICT DUE TO SUPPLIES OF ROCKET LAUNCHERS

Also of note in Biden’s Tuesday op-ed is his stating he doesn’t believe Russia intends to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. “I know many people around the world are concerned about the use of nuclear weapons,” he began on this point.

We currently see no indication that Russia has intent to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, though Russia’s occasional rhetoric to rattle the nuclear saber is itself dangerous and extremely irresponsible. Let me be clear: Any use of nuclear weapons in this conflict on any scale would be completely unacceptable to us as well as the rest of the world and would entail severe consequences,” the president concluded.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 09:45

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Texas Can’t Start Enforcing Social Media Law, Says SCOTUS


george-pagan-iii-f-PH16nZHKI-unsplash

The Supreme Court has temporarily blocked enforcement of a Texas tech law. The law treats large social media platforms like common carriers and prohibits them from making independent decisions about content moderation.

Specifically, the law bans large tech companies from viewpoint-based blocking, restricting, or editorializing about social media content—a purview large enough to prevent platforms from moderating even the types of content that few would object to a private company limiting. It also requires them to set up an appeal system for users whose content is removed.

The U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas held last December that the Texas social media law was unconstitutional. But the law recently scored a win with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, which in May issued a stay on the district court’s decision.

That meant Texas was free to start enforcing the law.

In response, tech industry groups NetChoice and the Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA) asked the Supreme Court to intervene and vacate the 5th Circuit’s stay.

And now it has, in a 5-4 decision issued Tuesday.

The majority—a conservative-liberal mix that included Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett—did not offer reasoning for their ruling.

A dissent penned by Justice Samuel Alito, joined by Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch, can be found here. Justice Elena Kagan also dissented.

SCOTUS’ decision means that Texas cannot start trying to treat large internet platforms like common carriers while the case plays out. But the 5th Circuit is still mulling the merits of the NetChoice and CCIA case against the law.


FREE MINDS

Data on fentanyl seizures at the Southern border challenges the conservative narrative:


FREE MARKETS

Will the city of Austin defy a potential Texas law criminalizing abortion? The state law—which makes it a felony to perform an abortion—will go into effect if Roe v. Wade is overturned. Some believe the law’s language is loose enough that it would criminalize not just abortion doctors but women who try to self-induce an abortion with medication.
But in Austin, “Councilmember Chito Vela is proposing a resolution that would direct the city’s police department to make criminal enforcement, arrest and investigation of abortions its lowest priority and restrict city funds and city staff from being used to investigate, catalogue or report suspected abortions,” notes Politico.

“This is not an academic conversation,” Vela told Politico. “This is a very real conversation where people’s lives could be destroyed by these criminal prosecutions. In Texas, you’re an adult at 17. We are looking at the prospect of a 17-year-old girl who has an unplanned pregnancy and is seeking an abortion [being] subjected to first-degree felony charges — up to 99 years in jail — and that’s just absolutely unacceptable.”


FOLLOWUP

• News that the Uvalde, Texas, shooter entered Robb Elementary School through a door a teacher left propped open turns out to be false. Video footage shows the teacher shutting the door, which was supposed to lock automatically when closed but for some reason did not.

• “The Uvalde Police Department and the Uvalde Independent School District police force are no longer cooperating with the Texas Department of Public Safety’s investigation into the massacre at Robb Elementary School and the state’s review of the law enforcement response,” reports ABC News.

• The first funerals for victims of the Uvalde shooting were held on Tuesday for 10-year-old Amerie Joe Garza and for Ellie Garcia, who would have turned 10 on Saturday. “This week alone there will be 11 funerals,” The Texas Tribune reports.


QUICK HITS

• The Department of Justice is appealing the court ruling ending the federal mask mandate on airplanes and other transit.

• A new Gallup poll on economic confidence finds “the lowest reading in Gallup’s trend during the coronavirus pandemic, and likely the lowest confidence has been since the tail end of the Great Recession in early 2009.”

• “The good news is that there are some promising technical solutions for making plastics infinitely recyclable on the horizon,” writes Reason‘s Ron Bailey in response to a recent Atlantic article that said plastics recycling will never work so single-use plastics should be banned.

• Are Democrats souring on Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D–Minn.) antitrust bill?

• A reminder that J.D. Vance wants to ban porn.

• What?

The post Texas Can't Start Enforcing Social Media Law, Says SCOTUS appeared first on Reason.com.

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No, OPEC+ Isn’t About To Break Up And No, Saudis Aren’t About To Pump More Crude

No, OPEC+ Isn’t About To Break Up And No, Saudis Aren’t About To Pump More Crude

Yesterday oil tumbled because, as Bloomberg put it, among the many reverberations from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine another might be an early end to OPEC+’s oil supply pact. The 23-nation alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is due to finish restoring production halted during the pandemic by the end of September, but the Wall Street Journal reported – in a report that has not been confirmed anywhere else – that OPEC is contemplating suspending Russia from the coalition’s quota system, as sanctions prevent Moscow from increasing output. The Saudis and the United Arab Emirates might fill the resulting supply gap, the WSJ said, potentially setting in motion a breakdown of the alliance.

And even though oil prices slumped following the report, ignoring Europe’s all too real (if rather delayed) embargo on Russian oil and focusing on hope that we may get a few hundred thousand extra barrels of Saudi oil supply, none of what the WSJ reported is going to happen, and as Bloomberg’s Grant Smith writes this morning, when OPEC+ gathers tomorrow, the agenda will more likely be business as usual.
 
For those who missed it, the WSJ reported that Saudi Arabia and the UAE could fill Russia’s unused quotas, helping to tame inflation and earning President Biden’s appreciation in the process.

Well, don’t hold your breath: as Smith correctly notes, such a move would be a grave step, rupturing ties between the Gulf nations and the Kremlin and risking the disintegration of the whole OPEC+ network. Delegates across the group don’t consider that imminent… or even realistic.

Yes, there are some – such as RBC’s Helima Croft – who point out that the Biden administration has been intensifying its diplomatic push to get Riyadh to open the taps, and one option we could see in coming weeks or months is that the kingdom speeds up the return of barrels still offline since the pandemic. But even if such an improbable deal is struck — and there’s no guarantee it will be, after all the last time Biden called the Saudis, nobody picked up the phone — it’s too far off to affect deliberations when the OPEC and its partners meet tomorrow. As a result, they’re likely to stick with the script and rubber-stamp another modest supply increase for July.

Meanwhile, cementing ties between Moscow and Riyadh, on Wednesday, Russia said Saudi Arabia hailed their oil-market cooperation in the OPEC+ alliance as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited the kingdom for talks with Gulf officials.

The trip comes as Moscow faces growing pressure from the US and its allies over its invasion of Ukraine. Yet despite western pressure, oil-exporting Gulf nations have maintained close ties with Moscow and have ignored sanctions imposed by the US and its allies.

Lavrov and his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, “praised the level of cooperation in the OPEC+ format,” the Foreign Ministry in Moscow said in a statement. “They noted the stabilizing effect that tight coordination between Russia and Saudi Arabia in this strategically important area has on the global hydrocarbon market.”

Which is not to say that Saudi Arabia will never try to take advantage of the situation – after all, OPEC+ did collapse (briefly) in March 2020. Still, as Bloomberg’s Paul Wallace writes, there are plenty of hurdles to overcome before Riyadh and allies such as Abu Dhabi would be willing to isolate Russia by accelerating their oil output increases or pumping above their OPEC+ quotas.

Most are political in nature. Saudi Arabia and the UAE want greater security commitments from the US, especially to allay fears about Iran and its proxy groups in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also wants President Joe Biden to treat him as the kingdom’s de facto leader that he is, which however does not look realistic with all the residual bad blood – no pun intended – over the Jamal Khashoggi murder.. 

The US has made overtures to the Saudis and Emiratis in recent months in a bid to improve its strained relations with them. But so far they have stuck to their slow crude-production increases and insisted Russia’s inclusion in OPEC+ is vital for their interests.   Still, if Biden’s mooted trip to Saudi Arabia goes ahead –it’d be the first of his presidency — it may pave the way for a deal. For now, however, the only direction oil will trade in the coming weeks and months, is up.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 09:32

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The Year’s Worst Month Awaits Shaky Equity Markets

The Year’s Worst Month Awaits Shaky Equity Markets

By Sagarika Jaisinghani, Bloomberg Markets Live analyst and reporter

Investors hoping for a rally in European stocks this month may be disappointed, if history is any guide.

June has been the worst month of the year for the Stoxx 600 Index over the last two decades, showing an average decline of 1.1% and rising just eight times out of 20, the least of any month.

With the gauge having fallen in four of the first five months of the year, investors enter the new one in cautious mood. The European benchmark has tried to bounce back in recent weeks, as cheaper valuations tempted some, but with inflation hitting a record high, the European Central Bank turning hawkish and fears of a recession abounding, nerves remain frayed.

“This market is still weak and financial conditions will most likely continue to tighten, which could turn this summer into a nail-biter,” says Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Many of Wall Street’s top strategists also see more downside for stock markets. Bank of America projects that the Stoxx 600 will trade around 410 by the fourth quarter — more than 7% below current levels — amid slower growth and declining bond yields. And BlackRock Investment Institute recently cut its rating on developed-market equities, including Europe, to neutral.

According to Barclays strategists, a full capitulation from real money is still elusive while the consumer outlook remains weak, meaning there is now more scope for shares to fall rather than rise.

Additionally, historically important technical indicators suggest European stocks have room to decline further before hitting key support levels. The Stoxx 600 is still about 6% above its 200-week moving average, a level that the index crossed during all major bear markets.

A further challenge this month may come from a shift in sectoral trading style as value stocks lose favor with strategists following recent outperformance. Energy and bank stocks posted solid gains in May, outshining all other European sectors, as rising interest rates dented appetite for so-called growth shares. But strategists including those at Bank of America and Credit Suisse recently cut their ratings on the group, with the latter saying cheaper equities are “very overbought” right now.

On the other hand, Liberum’s Joachim Klement sees value in European cyclical sectors, particularly in industrials and consumer stocks.

“Investors have priced in an immediate recession,” Klement says. “We think this is too pessimistic and has led to large selloffs in cyclical sectors. These are the stocks and sectors that we would expect to bounce the most as investor sentiment normalizes.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 09:25

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