Ex-Police-Officer Allowed to Proceed Pseudonymously with Due Process and Libel Claim Against City

From Doe v. Town of Lisbon, decided Thursday by Judge Joseph Laplante (D.N.H.):

Through this lawsuit, the plaintiff—a former police officer for the Town of Lisbon—seeks removal from New Hampshire’s “Exculpatory Evidence Schedule.” Broadly speaking, the EES is “a list of police officers who have engaged in misconduct reflecting negatively on their credibility or trustworthiness.” The New Hampshire Department of Justice maintains the EES and, subject to the provisions of a recently enacted New Hampshire statute … the EES “shall be a public record” under New Hampshire’s right-to-know laws. The NHDOJ publishes the EES on its website.

If an officer files a timely challenge to his or her placement on the EES, however, the officer’s name and corresponding information will be non-public and not subject to disclosure under the right-to-know law until the challenge is complete and all appeals are exhausted. If the officer’s challenge is successful, his or her name and corresponding information will remain non-public. See generally RSA 105:13-d. As a result, on the current EES, officers with pending challenges have their names and corresponding information (such as the reporting police department, date of incident, date of notification, and category of infraction), as well as their case information, redacted. If the officer loses his challenge to placement on the EES, his name and corresponding information are made public. It is unclear from the statute, the parties’ submissions, and other publicly available information whether the NHDOJ maintains an unredacted version of the EES (including the names and information of officers with pending challenges) and if so, who has access to it within the agency.

The plaintiff initially sued the Town in New Hampshire Superior Court, but after the Town timely and properly removed the case to this court, the plaintiff amended his complaint to add the NHDOJ as a defendant. The plaintiff contends that the Town lacked a factual basis to place him on the EES, violated his procedural and substantive due process rights when investigating the underlying conduct that led to his placement on the EES, and, even if the factual findings that led to his placement on the EES were sustained, his alleged behavior was not potentially exculpatory and did not justify placement on the EES.

Following the NHDOJ’s motion to dismiss, the plaintiff’s motion for voluntary dismissal, a potential consolidation order, and oral argument on these preliminary motions and issues, the parties filed a stipulation addressing how they wished to proceed. The court approved the stipulation, effectuating remand of all claims against the NHDOJ and certain claims for injunctive relief against the Town, as well as consolidation with the plaintiff’s related case.

After remand, the following claims for damages against the Town remain before this court: (1) violation of the plaintiff’s procedural due process rights under the United States Constitution and New Hampshire Constitution; (2) violation of his substantive due process rights under both constitutions; and (3) “libel, slander, and damage to reputation” and an award of attorneys’ fees. {The aspects of the procedural and substantive due process claims seeking injunctive relief against the Town and NHDOJ have been remanded to state court by agreement of the parties.}

The parties agreed to allow the plaintiff to proceed pseudonymously, both in state court and in this court. While Grafton County Superior Court Judge MacLeod granted the plaintiff’s motion to seal the docket and all pleadings in the state court matter, the state court record is not sealed on this court’s docket. Nor is this court’s docket or any of the operative pleadings sealed. The only document that is currently sealed is a prior version of a complaint that inadvertently included the plaintiff’s last name on one page….

Because, as noted above, the sealed records in this case are limited to one document, the heart of Professor Volokh’s request is his opposition to pseudonymity. Professor Volokh opposes continued pseudonymous litigation based on the presumption of open court records and his common law and First Amendment rights of access to court records.

The parties appear to have agreed at the state court level to let the plaintiff proceed pseudonymously and continued that agreement once the case was removed to this court. As Professor Volokh correctly points out, however, this court is not bound by state court orders when ruling on a procedural motion governed by federal law, and it may dissolve or modify such state court orders. Accordingly, the state court sealing order does not control here and the court independently analyzes whether the plaintiff should be allowed to continue pseudonymously.

Federal cases must ordinarily proceed in the names of the parties. See Fed. R. Civ. P. 10(a) & 17(a)(1). The Federal Rules of Civil Procedure do not provide a means for proceeding anonymously or through a pseudonym. Nevertheless, while “the public’s right of access to such materials is vibrant, it is not unfettered. Important countervailing interests can, in given instances, overwhelm the usual presumption and defeat access.” To that end, “courts have permitted parties to proceed under a pseudonym and to seal documents that reveal their true identities when extraordinary circumstances justify that restriction.” The court “must carefully balance the competing interests that are at stake in the particular case” when deciding whether to allow pseudonymous litigation and “enjoys considerable leeway in making decisions of this sort.” …

RSA 105:3-d … is not dispositive of the pseudonymity question, but the court also cannot ignore it….

The first factor—the extent to which the plaintiff’s identity has been kept confidential—favors pseudonymity. The plaintiff has maintained anonymity from the outset of this case and his identifying information is redacted on the publicly available version of the EES, as required by RSA 105:13-d. Moreover, nothing in the record suggests that the plaintiff’s identity, as it relates to his presence on the EES, is otherwise publicly known.

The second factor—the bases upon which disclosure is feared or sought to be avoided—also favors pseudonymity. While the “mere fact that judicial records may reveal potentially embarrassing information is not in itself sufficient reason to block public access,” here the plaintiff contends that he will suffer more than embarrassment if his identity is disclosed. Specifically, the plaintiff argues that if he must reveal his identity, he will experience severe reputational damage and impairment of future career prospects, regardless of the outcome of the litigation. The plaintiff’s concerns are well founded.

“[W]here the injury litigated against would be incurred as a result of the disclosure of the plaintiff’s identity,” pseudonymity may be appropriate. If the plaintiff must challenge his placement on the EES in his own name and he ultimately prevails and is removed from the EES, the public will still know that he was placed on the EES initially. The public could suspect, or conclude, that he deserved to be on the list, even if he ultimately proves otherwise. Simply being listed among other dishonest or untrustworthy police officers risks potential, irreversible harms to a person’s career prospects, whether that person wants to work in law enforcement again (as the plaintiff here does) or in other fields of employment. Accordingly, … the plaintiff has a “reasonable fear that, whatever the outcome of the action, public identification will subject him to severe reputational harm … and will defeat the very purpose of this litigation.”

{[And] “the litigant [in this case will likely] sacrifice a potentially valid claim simply to preserve [his] anonymity,” [which] favors pseudonymity. Plaintiff’s counsel indicated at oral argument that his client likely would not prosecute this lawsuit in this court if he must do so in his own name.}

Professor Volokh argues that allowing pseudonymous litigation here would create an exception that could swallow the rule of open litigation because this case resembles a “garden-variety” employment dispute or libel claim. Although Professor Volokh is correct that the plaintiff asserts a libel claim against his former employer and certain aspects of his other claims resemble a dispute between employer and former employee, the plaintiff is not so much challenging his termination as he is his placement on the EES. He also does not seek job reinstatement, back pay, front pay, or other remedies typically associated with employment cases. This litigation (both the federal and state court aspects) derives from RSA 105:13-d, a unique New Hampshire statute establishing a process and remedy for challenging placement on the EES.

Indeed, the plaintiff’s very reason for bringing this suit is to challenge his placement on the EES and ultimately attain removal therefrom. The plaintiff’s status on the EES therefore makes this an atypical case. And while the aspect of the plaintiff’s claims which seek the equitable remedy of removal from the EES have been remanded to state court, the state court case and this case are operating in tandem. Thus, the impact of disclosing the plaintiff’s identity in this case will be felt just as strongly in the state court case and could have the same damaging consequences the statute was enacted to prevent….

[T]he magnitude of the public interest in maintaining the confidentiality of the plaintiff’s identity—similarly favors pseudonymity…. “[I]f this litigant is forced to reveal his or her name, … other similarly situated litigants [will] be deterred from litigating claims that the public would like to have litigated ….” If law enforcement officers know that the statutorily afforded confidentiality can be easily overridden, such that they must litigate cases challenging placement on the EES in their real name, it logically follows that fewer are likely to file such cases and expend resources attempting to clear their names.

In addition, RSA 105:13-d evidences a strong public interest within New Hampshire in maintaining the confidentiality of police officers’ identities during pending legal challenges to placement on the EES. The statute provides that the individual officer’s name and “corresponding information on” the EES shall be published to the public, “except for any individual with a pending legal action regarding the officer’s placement on the” Once the court issues a final order in the case, and the parties exhaust their appellate rights, the officer’s name and corresponding information will become public unless the court finds that “the underlying misconduct is not potentially exculpatory” or “that the law enforcement agency erred in recommending that the officer be placed on the” EES.

The statute also provides that if “the court issues an order finding that an officer did not receive adequate due process and remands the matter back to the law enforcement agency for further due process proceedings, then the officer’s name shall not be publicly disclosed until the due process ordered is finally exhausted.” In other words, if the officer prevails, his identity is never disclosed. Furthermore, the statute provides that nothing therein “shall preclude the court from taking any necessary steps to protect the anonymity of the officer before entry of a final order.” The statute therefore reflects the public’s interest in protecting the anonymity of officers with pending EES challenges, like the plaintiff here. {Indeed, as of April 1, 2022, this lawsuit appears to be the only EES challenge pending in Federal Court and the dozens of other pending challenges in state court are “entirely under seal.”}

To hold otherwise and allow disclosure of the plaintiff’s identity would render many of the statute’s key provisions meaningless. If any interested third party could intervene in an EES challenge and demand disclosure of the affected officer’s name, the anonymity provisions would have no effect and the statute as a whole would be severely weakened. {Without an anonymous challenge procedure, police department leadership may be incentivized to place disgruntled or whistleblowing officers on the EES for inappropriate or even frivolous reasons because of the damaging reputational effects that result from being publicly named on the list.}

Professor Volokh’s interest in learning the plaintiff’s real name so he can, in his words, “effectively” research the plaintiff’s “past cases or controversies” and gain “important context” about the case therefore does not outweigh the strong public interest in preserving at least temporary anonymity reflected in RSA 105:13-d. {Professor Volokh’s effective reporting concerns are somewhat alleviated by the fact that the docket and all of the operative pleadings (which detail the underlying dispute) are publicly available.}

Professor Volokh cites no decisions where a court required disclosure under similar circumstances. The case he considers the closest to this one—Coe v. U.S. Dist. Ct. for Dist. of Colorado (10th Cir. 1982)—is readily distinguishable. There, the plaintiff moved for an injunction requiring the Colorado Board of Medicine to conduct his disciplinary hearing in secret. The court denied the motion. Importantly, Colorado, unlike New Hampshire, had not enacted a directly applicable statutory anonymity provision to protect petitioners. The court observed that “[n]o licensee has a ‘right’ to a secret, closed nonpublic hearing before the Board.” It was instead a “matter within the Board’s statutory authority, subject to its sound discretion in the balancing of public and private interests.” Here, by contrast, the statute requires that those challenging placement on the EES are permitted to remain anonymous during their challenge….

[Moreover, w]hile the court agrees that there is a strong interest in holding public officials like police officers accountable, this is not a suit to hold the plaintiff accountable. The plaintiff has already been held accountable; Lisbon PD terminated him and placed him on the EES. Also, if his challenge fails, he will remain on the EES and the public will learn his identity, resulting in further public accountability. If anything, in an EES challenge, the plaintiff is seeking to hold his former department accountable for potentially placing him on the EES without justification. Contrast that to a § 1983 suit where a citizen seeks to hold a police officer accountable for some unconstitutional conduct. In such a suit, unlike here, the interest in publicly identifying the officer-defendant is especially strong.

The balance of factors thus weighs in favor of allowing the plaintiff to continue proceeding under a pseudonym. The above-described considerations—in particular, the plaintiff’s reasonable concern that he will be subjected to severe reputational damage absent anonymity, regardless of the outcome of this litigation, and the strong public interest (as reflected in RSA 105:13-d) that officers challenging placement on the EES should be allowed to maintain their anonymity during such challenges—outweigh the interests favoring public identification and the presumption of open court proceedings.

This ruling is without prejudice to Professor Volokh, any other party, or the court revisiting the propriety of pseudonymous litigation at a later stage in the litigation. The court’s order is therefore “limited to pretrial proceedings.”

I appreciate the detail and care in the opinion (and appreciate the court’s granting my motion to intervene), but I still disagree, and have filed a notice of appeal. To note just one item, this case is not a challenge under the New Hampshire statute any more: The claims under that statute were remanded to state court. The only claims still proceeding in federal court are allegations that the city violated the state and federal Due Process Clauses, and that it libeled Doe. This makes it, in my view, just like the normal employment case and libel case, and those are litigated in the party’s actual name, even when such litigation would expose allegedly false and damaging accusations against the party (as is common in employment cases and is the norm in libel cases). We’ll see what the First Circuit says.

The post Ex-Police-Officer Allowed to Proceed Pseudonymously with Due Process and Libel Claim Against City appeared first on Reason.com.

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I anticipated Chief Justice Roberts’s Lonely, Failed Saving Construction of Roe

On April 27, 2022, the Wall Street Journal editorial page worried that Chief Justice Roberts was “trying to turn another Justice.” At the time, I speculated on the blog that the WSJ received a leak from the Court, and was trying to affect internal deliberations. But internally, I had an inkling what could be going on. No, I did not have a leak. Rather, I know Chief Justice Roberts–and his attempts to save things–extremely well.

Back in October 2021, I wrote a draft blog post about what the Chief’s preferred middle ground in Dobbs could look like. I understood that this approach would be pure sophistry, but I take that premise as a given for the Chief. Here is an excerpt from the draft post, which should look familiar. I only made slight alterations for readability:

With rational basis review the relevant line would not be based on the viability of the fetus or some arbitrary trimester framework. Rather the line will be drawn based on whether the woman knows or reasonably should have known she was pregnant. At that point, she would have had a meaningful opportunity to terminate the pregnancy. But that notice doesn’t need to be the full nine months of the pregnancy. According to a 2017 study, “gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness was 5.5 weeks (standard error = 0.04) and the prevalence of late pregnancy awareness was 23% (standard error = 1 %).” And the “average gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness has not changed over the last two decades.” Given these numbers, under S.B. 8 women may have an exceedingly short period of time to actually obtain the abortion. Moreover, cardiac activity may be detected before six-week mark. Or a woman may learn about her pregnancy after the six-week mark. The Texas six-week limit would not be sufficient because many women do not even know they’re pregnant at that point. But the 15-week Mississippi ban would afford women the opportunity to learn of their pregnancy.

Here is what Roberts wrote in Dobbs:

I agree with the Court that the viability line established by Roe and Casey should be discarded under a straightforward stare decisis analysis. That line never made any sense. Our abortion precedents describe the right at issue as a woman’s right to choose to terminate her pregnancy. That right should therefore extend far enough to ensure a reasonable opportunity to choose, but need not extend any further—certainly not all the way to viability. Mississippi’s law allows a woman three months to obtain an abortion, well beyond the point at which it is considered “late” to discover a pregnancy. See A. Ayoola, Late Recognition of Unintended Pregnancies, 32 Pub. Health Nursing 462 (2015) (pregnancy is discoverable and ordinarily discovered by six weeks of gestation). I see no sound basis for questioning the adequacy of that opportunity.

Yes, I anticipated–almost to a tee–what the Chief was cooking up. You’re welcome. So whenever I wrote about the “blue-plate special” over the past few months, this was precisely what I had in mind. No party advanced this argument, but I deduced it based on every Roberts opinion I’ve ever read. I knew Roberts would have to use some line other than viability. The only somewhat objective rule would be when women learn of their pregnancies. This tweet comes to mind:

The Chief’s moves are entirely predictable.

Consider this passage:

To be sure, in reaffirming the right to an abortion, Casey termed the viability rule Roe‘s “central holding.” Other cases of ours have repeated that language. But simply declaring it does not make it so.

It doesn’t matter if Congress labelled Section 5000A as a penalty. “Simply declaring it does not make it so.” Ditto in NFIB:

No one would doubt that this law imposed a tax, and was within Congress’s power to tax. That conclusion should not change simply because Congress used the word “penalty” to describe the payment.

Indeed, Roberts actually “excised” the viability line from Roe and Casey:

Applying principles of stare decisis, I would excise that additional rule—and only that rule—from our jurisprudence.

Just like he eliminated the requirement to purchase insurance from Section 5000A, and made the Medicaid expansion optional. Same script, different cast. But unlike with NFIB, the Chief garnered zero other votes. In Dobbs, we were left with the lonely, failed saving construction of Roe.

If you doubt me, I shared this proposal with several people who can attest that it is authentic. I held the essay in reserve, waiting to see what would happen in oral arguments, but I decided not to use it. On some level, I was afraid to write it, lest it become true. I didn’t want to jinx it. Thankfully, no other Justice took the bait.

I’ll discuss the Roberts concurrence further in another post.

The post I anticipated Chief Justice Roberts's Lonely, Failed Saving Construction of <i>Roe</i> appeared first on Reason.com.

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COVID Falls From G7 Agenda – Focus Now On Russia, Russia, Russia

COVID Falls From G7 Agenda – Focus Now On Russia, Russia, Russia

Remember at the beginning of this year when you could not turn on the TV or log on to the web without being bombarded by a non-stop wave of covid fear mongering? 

Remember when you couldn’t even ask questions about the validity of the claims made by Anthony Fauci, the CDC and others without getting booted from social media? 

Remember the insanity and the zealotry of the devout covid cult sitting in their cars with masks on, walking around outside with their masks on, and then getting right in people’s faces when they didn’t have a mask on?

The covid pandemic event was a near perfect combination of induced fear in the minds of cowards, along with induced authoritarianism in the minds of people who, deep down, desperately want to control everyone else around them.

Where did all the hype go?  It disappeared in a matter of weeks once the corporate media gave up on the narrative.  There were a few reasons for this…

First, the Infection Fatality Rate of covid was far too small to warrant all the doom mongering.  With an average IFR of only 0.27% (recently adjusted to 0.23%), the vast majority of people have nothing to worry about from the virus.  Second, the lie of the “pandemic of the unvaccinated was exposed.  In fact, states and countries that actually tracked “breakthrough infections” showed that the vaccinated were far more likely to get infected than people who were not vaccinated and had natural immunity.  Third, the vaccine passport efforts failed in the US at the federal level and in red states, and thus, the rest of the world saw that half the country could function perfectly fine without medical tyranny.

Once there is a working example that defies the medical tyranny model, other countries are going to demand answers for why they have to remain in lockdown while some people can be free?  Only a few nations with the most extreme authoritarianism (like China) continue to enforce lockdowns and vax controls.  

All the excuses for lockdowns and forced vaccinations fell apart in the US, and any further push for vax passports was inspiring millions of Americans to potentially take up arms.  So, the establishment walked away from the plan.  It was as simple as that.

This abandonment of the precious covid program has been made evident in the latest G7 summit, which does not seem to have covid listed as a topic of discussion, and the pandemic has so far been completely overshadowed by other concerns.  World leaders have clearly moved on and are not even wearing masks for show anymore (If the vaccines actually work, what do you need a mask for?  If they don’t work, then why take one?).  Instead, the subject of Russia and the war in Ukraine is dominating G7.  Secondary topics include climate change and “gender equality.”

The notion of covid as a nothing-burger issue seems to fall in line with shifts in public focus.  Inflation is currently on the top of the list of biggest problems facing the US (and most other countries), followed by violent crime.  Covid rates at the very bottom of the list in polling.  

The G7 summit will surely touch on inflation and other economic issues, but they appear intent on doing so only as a way to blame Russia for our economic decline.  To reiterate a fact that Joe Biden and many other world leader refuse to admit to:  The inflation crisis started WAY before Russia invaded Ukraine.  While sanctions against Russia will definitely expound on supply chain problems, the bigger issue is central bank fiat printing and too many dollars chasing too few goods.  

The Ukraine situation is also fading as a subject of widespread outrage among Americans.  Europe is more immediately affected because of their dependency on Russian oil and natural gas, but questions are rising about why we should be so focused on Ukraine when there are much bigger problems closer to home.  Overall, establishment politicians continue to ignore the one issue that the majority of the world wants answers and solutions for, which is economic decline.  But, in order to offer answers, they would first have to acknowledge the true gravity of the threat, and they’re not going to do that until it’s far too late to do anything about it. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/28/2022 – 08:47

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Ex-Police-Officer Allowed to Proceed Pseudonymously with Due Process and Libel Claim Against City

From Doe v. Town of Lisbon, decided Thursday by Judge Joseph Laplante (D.N.H.):

Through this lawsuit, the plaintiff—a former police officer for the Town of Lisbon—seeks removal from New Hampshire’s “Exculpatory Evidence Schedule.” Broadly speaking, the EES is “a list of police officers who have engaged in misconduct reflecting negatively on their credibility or trustworthiness.” The New Hampshire Department of Justice maintains the EES and, subject to the provisions of a recently enacted New Hampshire statute … the EES “shall be a public record” under New Hampshire’s right-to-know laws. The NHDOJ publishes the EES on its website.

If an officer files a timely challenge to his or her placement on the EES, however, the officer’s name and corresponding information will be non-public and not subject to disclosure under the right-to-know law until the challenge is complete and all appeals are exhausted. If the officer’s challenge is successful, his or her name and corresponding information will remain non-public. See generally RSA 105:13-d. As a result, on the current EES, officers with pending challenges have their names and corresponding information (such as the reporting police department, date of incident, date of notification, and category of infraction), as well as their case information, redacted. If the officer loses his challenge to placement on the EES, his name and corresponding information are made public. It is unclear from the statute, the parties’ submissions, and other publicly available information whether the NHDOJ maintains an unredacted version of the EES (including the names and information of officers with pending challenges) and if so, who has access to it within the agency.

The plaintiff initially sued the Town in New Hampshire Superior Court, but after the Town timely and properly removed the case to this court, the plaintiff amended his complaint to add the NHDOJ as a defendant. The plaintiff contends that the Town lacked a factual basis to place him on the EES, violated his procedural and substantive due process rights when investigating the underlying conduct that led to his placement on the EES, and, even if the factual findings that led to his placement on the EES were sustained, his alleged behavior was not potentially exculpatory and did not justify placement on the EES.

Following the NHDOJ’s motion to dismiss, the plaintiff’s motion for voluntary dismissal, a potential consolidation order, and oral argument on these preliminary motions and issues, the parties filed a stipulation addressing how they wished to proceed. The court approved the stipulation, effectuating remand of all claims against the NHDOJ and certain claims for injunctive relief against the Town, as well as consolidation with the plaintiff’s related case.

After remand, the following claims for damages against the Town remain before this court: (1) violation of the plaintiff’s procedural due process rights under the United States Constitution and New Hampshire Constitution; (2) violation of his substantive due process rights under both constitutions; and (3) “libel, slander, and damage to reputation” and an award of attorneys’ fees. {The aspects of the procedural and substantive due process claims seeking injunctive relief against the Town and NHDOJ have been remanded to state court by agreement of the parties.}

The parties agreed to allow the plaintiff to proceed pseudonymously, both in state court and in this court. While Grafton County Superior Court Judge MacLeod granted the plaintiff’s motion to seal the docket and all pleadings in the state court matter, the state court record is not sealed on this court’s docket. Nor is this court’s docket or any of the operative pleadings sealed. The only document that is currently sealed is a prior version of a complaint that inadvertently included the plaintiff’s last name on one page….

Because, as noted above, the sealed records in this case are limited to one document, the heart of Professor Volokh’s request is his opposition to pseudonymity. Professor Volokh opposes continued pseudonymous litigation based on the presumption of open court records and his common law and First Amendment rights of access to court records.

The parties appear to have agreed at the state court level to let the plaintiff proceed pseudonymously and continued that agreement once the case was removed to this court. As Professor Volokh correctly points out, however, this court is not bound by state court orders when ruling on a procedural motion governed by federal law, and it may dissolve or modify such state court orders. Accordingly, the state court sealing order does not control here and the court independently analyzes whether the plaintiff should be allowed to continue pseudonymously.

Federal cases must ordinarily proceed in the names of the parties. See Fed. R. Civ. P. 10(a) & 17(a)(1). The Federal Rules of Civil Procedure do not provide a means for proceeding anonymously or through a pseudonym. Nevertheless, while “the public’s right of access to such materials is vibrant, it is not unfettered. Important countervailing interests can, in given instances, overwhelm the usual presumption and defeat access.” To that end, “courts have permitted parties to proceed under a pseudonym and to seal documents that reveal their true identities when extraordinary circumstances justify that restriction.” The court “must carefully balance the competing interests that are at stake in the particular case” when deciding whether to allow pseudonymous litigation and “enjoys considerable leeway in making decisions of this sort.” …

RSA 105:3-d … is not dispositive of the pseudonymity question, but the court also cannot ignore it….

The first factor—the extent to which the plaintiff’s identity has been kept confidential—favors pseudonymity. The plaintiff has maintained anonymity from the outset of this case and his identifying information is redacted on the publicly available version of the EES, as required by RSA 105:13-d. Moreover, nothing in the record suggests that the plaintiff’s identity, as it relates to his presence on the EES, is otherwise publicly known.

The second factor—the bases upon which disclosure is feared or sought to be avoided—also favors pseudonymity. While the “mere fact that judicial records may reveal potentially embarrassing information is not in itself sufficient reason to block public access,” here the plaintiff contends that he will suffer more than embarrassment if his identity is disclosed. Specifically, the plaintiff argues that if he must reveal his identity, he will experience severe reputational damage and impairment of future career prospects, regardless of the outcome of the litigation. The plaintiff’s concerns are well founded.

“[W]here the injury litigated against would be incurred as a result of the disclosure of the plaintiff’s identity,” pseudonymity may be appropriate. If the plaintiff must challenge his placement on the EES in his own name and he ultimately prevails and is removed from the EES, the public will still know that he was placed on the EES initially. The public could suspect, or conclude, that he deserved to be on the list, even if he ultimately proves otherwise. Simply being listed among other dishonest or untrustworthy police officers risks potential, irreversible harms to a person’s career prospects, whether that person wants to work in law enforcement again (as the plaintiff here does) or in other fields of employment. Accordingly, … the plaintiff has a “reasonable fear that, whatever the outcome of the action, public identification will subject him to severe reputational harm … and will defeat the very purpose of this litigation.”

{[And] “the litigant [in this case will likely] sacrifice a potentially valid claim simply to preserve [his] anonymity,” [which] favors pseudonymity. Plaintiff’s counsel indicated at oral argument that his client likely would not prosecute this lawsuit in this court if he must do so in his own name.}

Professor Volokh argues that allowing pseudonymous litigation here would create an exception that could swallow the rule of open litigation because this case resembles a “garden-variety” employment dispute or libel claim. Although Professor Volokh is correct that the plaintiff asserts a libel claim against his former employer and certain aspects of his other claims resemble a dispute between employer and former employee, the plaintiff is not so much challenging his termination as he is his placement on the EES. He also does not seek job reinstatement, back pay, front pay, or other remedies typically associated with employment cases. This litigation (both the federal and state court aspects) derives from RSA 105:13-d, a unique New Hampshire statute establishing a process and remedy for challenging placement on the EES.

Indeed, the plaintiff’s very reason for bringing this suit is to challenge his placement on the EES and ultimately attain removal therefrom. The plaintiff’s status on the EES therefore makes this an atypical case. And while the aspect of the plaintiff’s claims which seek the equitable remedy of removal from the EES have been remanded to state court, the state court case and this case are operating in tandem. Thus, the impact of disclosing the plaintiff’s identity in this case will be felt just as strongly in the state court case and could have the same damaging consequences the statute was enacted to prevent….

[T]he magnitude of the public interest in maintaining the confidentiality of the plaintiff’s identity—similarly favors pseudonymity…. “[I]f this litigant is forced to reveal his or her name, … other similarly situated litigants [will] be deterred from litigating claims that the public would like to have litigated ….” If law enforcement officers know that the statutorily afforded confidentiality can be easily overridden, such that they must litigate cases challenging placement on the EES in their real name, it logically follows that fewer are likely to file such cases and expend resources attempting to clear their names.

In addition, RSA 105:13-d evidences a strong public interest within New Hampshire in maintaining the confidentiality of police officers’ identities during pending legal challenges to placement on the EES. The statute provides that the individual officer’s name and “corresponding information on” the EES shall be published to the public, “except for any individual with a pending legal action regarding the officer’s placement on the” Once the court issues a final order in the case, and the parties exhaust their appellate rights, the officer’s name and corresponding information will become public unless the court finds that “the underlying misconduct is not potentially exculpatory” or “that the law enforcement agency erred in recommending that the officer be placed on the” EES.

The statute also provides that if “the court issues an order finding that an officer did not receive adequate due process and remands the matter back to the law enforcement agency for further due process proceedings, then the officer’s name shall not be publicly disclosed until the due process ordered is finally exhausted.” In other words, if the officer prevails, his identity is never disclosed. Furthermore, the statute provides that nothing therein “shall preclude the court from taking any necessary steps to protect the anonymity of the officer before entry of a final order.” The statute therefore reflects the public’s interest in protecting the anonymity of officers with pending EES challenges, like the plaintiff here. {Indeed, as of April 1, 2022, this lawsuit appears to be the only EES challenge pending in Federal Court and the dozens of other pending challenges in state court are “entirely under seal.”}

To hold otherwise and allow disclosure of the plaintiff’s identity would render many of the statute’s key provisions meaningless. If any interested third party could intervene in an EES challenge and demand disclosure of the affected officer’s name, the anonymity provisions would have no effect and the statute as a whole would be severely weakened. {Without an anonymous challenge procedure, police department leadership may be incentivized to place disgruntled or whistleblowing officers on the EES for inappropriate or even frivolous reasons because of the damaging reputational effects that result from being publicly named on the list.}

Professor Volokh’s interest in learning the plaintiff’s real name so he can, in his words, “effectively” research the plaintiff’s “past cases or controversies” and gain “important context” about the case therefore does not outweigh the strong public interest in preserving at least temporary anonymity reflected in RSA 105:13-d. {Professor Volokh’s effective reporting concerns are somewhat alleviated by the fact that the docket and all of the operative pleadings (which detail the underlying dispute) are publicly available.}

Professor Volokh cites no decisions where a court required disclosure under similar circumstances. The case he considers the closest to this one—Coe v. U.S. Dist. Ct. for Dist. of Colorado (10th Cir. 1982)—is readily distinguishable. There, the plaintiff moved for an injunction requiring the Colorado Board of Medicine to conduct his disciplinary hearing in secret. The court denied the motion. Importantly, Colorado, unlike New Hampshire, had not enacted a directly applicable statutory anonymity provision to protect petitioners. The court observed that “[n]o licensee has a ‘right’ to a secret, closed nonpublic hearing before the Board.” It was instead a “matter within the Board’s statutory authority, subject to its sound discretion in the balancing of public and private interests.” Here, by contrast, the statute requires that those challenging placement on the EES are permitted to remain anonymous during their challenge….

[Moreover, w]hile the court agrees that there is a strong interest in holding public officials like police officers accountable, this is not a suit to hold the plaintiff accountable. The plaintiff has already been held accountable; Lisbon PD terminated him and placed him on the EES. Also, if his challenge fails, he will remain on the EES and the public will learn his identity, resulting in further public accountability. If anything, in an EES challenge, the plaintiff is seeking to hold his former department accountable for potentially placing him on the EES without justification. Contrast that to a § 1983 suit where a citizen seeks to hold a police officer accountable for some unconstitutional conduct. In such a suit, unlike here, the interest in publicly identifying the officer-defendant is especially strong.

The balance of factors thus weighs in favor of allowing the plaintiff to continue proceeding under a pseudonym. The above-described considerations—in particular, the plaintiff’s reasonable concern that he will be subjected to severe reputational damage absent anonymity, regardless of the outcome of this litigation, and the strong public interest (as reflected in RSA 105:13-d) that officers challenging placement on the EES should be allowed to maintain their anonymity during such challenges—outweigh the interests favoring public identification and the presumption of open court proceedings.

This ruling is without prejudice to Professor Volokh, any other party, or the court revisiting the propriety of pseudonymous litigation at a later stage in the litigation. The court’s order is therefore “limited to pretrial proceedings.”

I appreciate the detail and care in the opinion (and appreciate the court’s granting my motion to intervene), but I still disagree, and have filed a notice of appeal. To note just one item, this case is not a challenge under the New Hampshire statute any more: The claims under that statute were remanded to state court. The only claims still proceeding in federal court are allegations that the city violated the state and federal Due Process Clauses, and that it libeled Doe. This makes it, in my view, just like the normal employment case and libel case, and those are litigated in the party’s actual name, even when such litigation would expose allegedly false and damaging accusations against the party (as is common in employment cases and is the norm in libel cases). We’ll see what the First Circuit says.

The post Ex-Police-Officer Allowed to Proceed Pseudonymously with Due Process and Libel Claim Against City appeared first on Reason.com.

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Earnings Recession Coming As Fed Hikes Rates

Earnings Recession Coming As Fed Hikes Rates

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

An earnings recession is coming as the Fed hikes rates which accelerates an economic recession. Such should be no surprise given earnings are derived from economic activity.

However, despite economic growth already showing signs of weakness, inflation running at the highest level in 40-years, and the Fed moving aggressively to tighten monetary policy, Wall Street analysts continue to suggest strong profit margins and rising earnings into 2023.

The Fed raised interest rates last week by 75 basis points, the biggest increase since the mid-1990s, to curb inflation. The central bank indicated it would keep lifting rates, a strategy that will inevitably hurt the economy and the jobs market.

For the purposes of this article, we are defining an earnings recession as a period in which corporate earnings, or profits, are below the year-earlier level for two consecutive quarters. Using this measure, there have been 19 earnings recessions since 1948, with at least three instances in the past 10 years.

Over the long term, the economy grows at about 6%. Therefore, earnings growth also runs at roughly ~6% on a peak-to-peak basis. However, analysts suggest that earnings growth into 2023 will run well above the historical growth rate despite forecasts of much slower economic activity.

To put that into perspective, analysts’ estimates are currently at the most significant deviation above that 6% earnings growth trend.

The only two previous periods with similar deviations are the “Financial Crisis” and the “Dot.com” bubble.

While Wall Street analysts currently remain exuberant about earnings growth, an economic reversion resulting from tighter monetary policy will lead to an earnings recession.

As noted, with inflation already running at 40-year highs, the risk of an economic recession has risen markedly in 2022. Historically, when inflation rises by more than 5% annually, such has triggered an economic contraction.

As shown, inflation tends to be its cure as “high prices cure high prices” by slowing economic demand. However, as the Fed hikes rates to slow economic growth, thereby reducing inflation, they risk pushing the economy into a contraction. Given consumers’ dependence on low rates to support economic growth, the risk of a policy mistake remains elevated.

Of course, since earnings are highly correlated to economic growth, earnings don’t survive rate hikes. As the arrows show, Fed rate increases consistently lead to an earnings recession.

The Fed is in a difficult position. Producer prices, as shown below, have risen substantially faster than consumer prices. Such suggests that companies are absorbing input costs they can’t pass on to consumers. Eventually, the absorption of higher costs impairs profitability and reduces earnings.

When the inflation spread rises enough to impair profitability, corporations take defensive measures to reduce costs (layoffs, cost cuts, automation.) As job losses increase, consumers contract spending, which pushes the economy towards a recession.

The economy slows even faster if the Fed hikes rates to slow inflation. While no one currently expects an earnings recession, few tailwinds are supporting economic growth. The combination of geopolitical events and Fed policy will make continued growth even more challenging.

The Market Is Sending A Signal

Many analysts hope the Fed can engineer a “soft landing” for the economy. Such is an outcome where the economy slows, and inflation comes down but avoids a recession. Given that the surge in economic growth and inflation resulted from the massive liquidity injections in 2020-2021, the “reversion” will be just as significant.

Our composite economic indicator closely tracks the economy using more than 100 data points. Not surprisingly, the surge in the composite from the 2020 lows has already reversed along with earnings growth rates. As noted, the economic and earnings correlation should be no surprise.

The market is also confirming the same. Historically, the stock market leads economic recessions by 6 to 9 months. When the National Bureau of Economic Research announces a recession, it is much too late to matter.

Lastly, during the previous four recessions and subsequent bear markets, the typical revision to consensus EPS estimates before the onset of a recession ranged from -6% to -18%, with a median of 10%. Coming out of recession, analysts start to increase estimates markedly.

Notably, while forward P/E ratios have declined, much of that is due to the decline in the “P” and not the “E.” Therefore, if an earnings recession is coming, as the data suggests, then the current “bear market” cycle still has more work to do.

The realignment of market prices and valuations is always a brutal process. While many believed the Fed had eliminated bear markets and economic recessions, the business cycle can only be delayed but never repealed.

We are just starting the negative revision phase which makes risk management in portfolios a key priority for now. However, the reversal of those earnings trends will be key in identifying the bear market end and the beginning of the next investible bull market cycle.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/28/2022 – 08:32

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I anticipated Chief Justice Roberts’s Lonely, Failed Saving Construction of Roe

On April 27, 2022, the Wall Street Journal editorial page worried that Chief Justice Roberts was “trying to turn another Justice.” At the time, I speculated on the blog that the WSJ received a leak from the Court, and was trying to affect internal deliberations. But internally, I had an inkling what could be going on. No, I did not have a leak. Rather, I know Chief Justice Roberts–and his attempts to save things–extremely well.

Back in October 2021, I wrote a draft blog post about what the Chief’s preferred middle ground in Dobbs could look like. I understood that this approach would be pure sophistry, but I take that premise as a given for the Chief. Here is an excerpt from the draft post, which should look familiar. I only made slight alterations for readability:

With rational basis review the relevant line would not be based on the viability of the fetus or some arbitrary trimester framework. Rather the line will be drawn based on whether the woman knows or reasonably should have known she was pregnant. At that point, she would have had a meaningful opportunity to terminate the pregnancy. But that notice doesn’t need to be the full nine months of the pregnancy. According to a 2017 study, “gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness was 5.5 weeks (standard error = 0.04) and the prevalence of late pregnancy awareness was 23% (standard error = 1 %).” And the “average gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness has not changed over the last two decades.” Given these numbers, under S.B. 8 women may have an exceedingly short period of time to actually obtain the abortion. Moreover, cardiac activity may be detected before six-week mark. Or a woman may learn about her pregnancy after the six-week mark. The Texas six-week limit would not be sufficient because many women do not even know they’re pregnant at that point. But the 15-week Mississippi ban would afford women the opportunity to learn of their pregnancy.

Here is what Roberts wrote in Dobbs:

I agree with the Court that the viability line established by Roe and Casey should be discarded under a straightforward stare decisis analysis. That line never made any sense. Our abortion precedents describe the right at issue as a woman’s right to choose to terminate her pregnancy. That right should therefore extend far enough to ensure a reasonable opportunity to choose, but need not extend any further—certainly not all the way to viability. Mississippi’s law allows a woman three months to obtain an abortion, well beyond the point at which it is considered “late” to discover a pregnancy. See A. Ayoola, Late Recognition of Unintended Pregnancies, 32 Pub. Health Nursing 462 (2015) (pregnancy is discoverable and ordinarily discovered by six weeks of gestation). I see no sound basis for questioning the adequacy of that opportunity.

Yes, I anticipated–almost to a tee–what the Chief was cooking up. You’re welcome. So whenever I wrote about the “blue-plate special” over the past few months, this was precisely what I had in mind. No party advanced this argument, but I deduced it based on every Roberts opinion I’ve ever read. I knew Roberts would have to use some line other than viability. The only somewhat objective rule would be when women learn of their pregnancies. This tweet comes to mind:

The Chief’s moves are entirely predictable.

Consider this passage:

To be sure, in reaffirming the right to an abortion, Casey termed the viability rule Roe‘s “central holding.” Other cases of ours have repeated that language. But simply declaring it does not make it so.

It doesn’t matter if Congress labelled Section 5000A as a penalty. “Simply declaring it does not make it so.” Ditto in NFIB:

No one would doubt that this law imposed a tax, and was within Congress’s power to tax. That conclusion should not change simply because Congress used the word “penalty” to describe the payment.

Indeed, Roberts actually “excised” the viability line from Roe and Casey:

Applying principles of stare decisis, I would excise that additional rule—and only that rule—from our jurisprudence.

Just like he eliminated the requirement to purchase insurance from Section 5000A, and made the Medicaid expansion optional. Same script, different cast. But unlike with NFIB, the Chief garnered zero other votes. In Dobbs, we were left with the lonely, failed saving construction of Roe.

If you doubt me, I shared this proposal with several people who can attest that it is authentic. I held the essay in reserve, waiting to see what would happen in oral arguments, but I decided not to use it. On some level, I was afraid to write it, lest it become true. I didn’t want to jinx it. Thankfully, no other Justice took the bait.

I’ll discuss the Roberts concurrence further in another post.

The post I anticipated Chief Justice Roberts's Lonely, Failed Saving Construction of <i>Roe</i> appeared first on Reason.com.

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Biden To Press Erdogan On Finland & Sweden As Turkey Seeks F-16s At Madrid Meeting

Biden To Press Erdogan On Finland & Sweden As Turkey Seeks F-16s At Madrid Meeting

Looming heavily over the Tuesday through Thursday NATO summit in Madrid will be Turkey’s vehement rejection of Finland and Sweden’s membership bids, but it now appears President Joe Biden will use the opportunity of his trip to Europe, where’s he’s currently attending the G7 in Germany, to intervene with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan personally.

“US President Joe Biden will meet Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan at this week’s NATO summit in Madrid where the alliance will discuss the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” the White House announced in a statement on Tuesday. The statement underscored the summit will take “historic decisions to strengthen the alliance’s collective defense and security.”

This after the Turkish side said that the two leaders held a Tuesday morning phone call ahead of the planned meeting on the sidelines of the Madrid-hosted summit. 

Going into the week’s annual NATO event, where the Ukraine war will be top of the agenda, US officials said they don’t expected Turkey’s concerns over Sweden and Finland’s membership bids to be allayed anytime soon. But the White House has stated that at this point it hopes to “boost” the Scandinavian countries’ candidacies.

On Monday national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters that the administration will seek to “create as much positive momentum” as possible among allies.

I’m not sitting here today suggesting that all issues will be resolved by Madrid, but we’re going to try and resolve as many of them as possible so that Madrid gives a boost to their candidacies, even if there remains some concerns on the part of Turkey that need to be worked out,” Sullivan said while briefing reporters at the G7 summit in Germany.

One European diplomatic official told CNN that there’s hope of “last moment” Turkish concessions in previewing the anticipated Biden-Erdogan meeting: “My best projection based on what I’ve seen is that they will run this to the wire at Madrid. They also always prefer if they’re going to make concessions to do it at the leader level, they believe that enhances that status,” the unnamed official said. “It is Turkey’s standard operating procedure not to give concessions till the last possible moment. And that last possible moment is usually defined as a bilateral with the US president, followed by a leaders meeting.”

Ankara has emphasized that despite pressure from Western allies, it doesn’t at all see the Madrid summit as a “deadline”. This as Turkish media has confirmed Erdogan will attend talks with the leaders of Sweden and Finland just ahead of the NATO meeting this week.

Erdogan’s government has been consistent in denouncing Swedish and Finish “support” for Kurdish “terrorist” groups, namely the outlawed PKK and its affiliates, for example in northern Syria. Erdogan has gone so far as to demand the Nordic countries extradite wanted members of the organization.

While Ankara is pledging that it will not back down, there’s growing anticipation that it will take nothing less than significant concessions from Biden visa-a-vis Turkey in order for Ankara to budge on the NATO membership questions. This could come in a variety of forms – from Washington readmitting Turkey to the F-35 stealth program, to the US pressing the EU to drop a 2019 arms embargo that stemmed from Erdogan’s anti-Kurdish military operations in northern Syria. But the most pressing and timely matter from Ankara’s point of view remains a stalled deal to acquire new F-16 fighter jets, which was also lately a source of soaring tensions with Greece.

F-16, US Air Force file image

According to Reuters:

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday he would meet U.S. President Joe Biden at a NATO leaders’ summit this week and discuss what he said was Washington’s “stalling” of Ankara’s request to purchase new F-16 fighter jets.

“Speaking before departing for the summit in Madrid, Erdogan said he had spoken to Biden on Tuesday morning and that Biden asked to meet him on later the same day or Wednesday,” the report continued. The meeting could come as early as Tuesday.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/28/2022 – 08:14

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Small Change Tolerance Slippery Slopes and the Desire to Avoid Seeming Extremist or Petty


slippery

[This month, I’m serializing my 2003 Harvard Law Review article, The Mechanisms of the Slippery Slope.]

Say you care little about the .50-caliber rifle ban, but your neighbor strongly supports or opposes it. His vote in the election, he says, will be influenced by the candidates’ views on the ban, and he has donated time and money to pro- or anti-ban groups.

If you don’t think the law will tend to lead to broader laws, you might think this fellow is a bit extremist. Some people might enjoy being perceived as rigid on such matters: “Extremism in the defense of liberty,” they might say, echoing Barry Goldwater, “is no vice.” But people who like to see themselves and to be seen by others as “moderate” might not want such a reputation, and might therefore adopt a small change tolerance heuristic. And this may apply to legislators as well as voters—though some legislators cultivate a reputation for never budging on some issues, others might want to avoid looking like “rigid ideologues” to their constituents, or alienating colleagues with whom they’ll have to work again.

Small change tolerance slippery slopes can therefore happen when a law’s opponents don’t want to seem extremist but the law’s supporters don’t mind appearing this way, either because they’re extremist by temperament or because the status quo looks so bad to them that they feel a strong “don’t just stand there, do something” effect. Supporters will push for small changes, and opponents won’t push back much. {Of course, if a law’s supporters don’t want to insistently press their case, but the law’s opponents don’t mind seeming insistent, the law will more easily be blocked, and the slippery slope likely won’t happen. The small change tolerance slippery slope, like the other slippery slopes, happens under particular political circumstances; it is a plausible phenomenon, but far from a certain one.}

Small change tolerance slippery slopes can also interact with other slippery slopes, for instance when step A ends up being easily evaded and then a small extension B is promoted as a “loophole-closing measure.” The combination of some people’s opposition to situations where a law is being evaded (an enforcement need slippery slope), A‘s enactment changing others’ minds about B‘s merits (an attitude-altering slippery slope), and the tendency of still others not to care much about small loophole-closing proposals (a small change tolerance slippery slope) can facilitate decision B once A is enacted, even if B would have been rejected at the outset had it been initially proposed instead of A.

Finally, small change tolerance can also be reinforced by the need to compromise. Legislators and appellate judges often have to give up something on one issue to get what they want on another, and such compromise is naturally more common on small matters than on big ones. {Few judges will explicitly offer to change their votes on one case in exchange for a colleague’s vote on another, but judges routinely compromise on an opinion’s wording (either when an authoring judge changes the wording or when another judge doesn’t insist on a change) to persuade another judge to join, to increase the chances of the authoring judge changing the opinion on another point, or to earn the authoring judge’s goodwill on a future case.} Decisionmakers might thus be more willing to compromise on a small step A, then small extension B, and then small extension C than they would have been had the larger extension C been proposed up front.

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Utah Democrats Endorse Non-Democrat Evan McMullin To Face Mike Lee


Mike Lee and Evan McMullin, Utah candidates for Senate

Five states are running primaries today to choose candidates for the November midterms. In Utah, Republicans will go to the polls to decide whether to renominate Sen. Mike Lee or choose one of his two challengers.

Notably, Democrats do not face the same task. Even with a declared candidate, Kael Weston, Utah Democrats voted not to put forward a nominee. Instead they are endorsing independent candidate Evan McMullin. (Interestingly, Weston contributed $200 to one of Lee’s Republican challengers.)

McMullin, a former CIA analyst and investment banker, ran a quixotic 2016 campaign for president that attracted the support of some neoconservatives and NeverTrump Republicans. McMullin got onto the ballot in only 11 states, finishing third or below in all of them—but he received more than 20 percent of the vote in his native Utah.

Given Utah’s electorate, the Democrats’ choice not to field a candidate makes sense: The state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in over 50 years. And McMullin is part of a new trend of anti-Trump conservatives looking to form a third party “dedicated to our founding ideals.”

According to recent polling, Lee is the only Republican candidate who would beat McMullin comfortably in a head-to-head match-up. (One candidate, former state Rep. Becky Edwards, had a narrow 29–28 lead over McMullin, but with 37 percent still undecided.) For libertarian Utahns, a Lee victory would probably be preferable to a McMullin win.

To be clear, Lee is by no means perfect. He has joined several dubious Republican crusades, as when he endorsed stronger regulation of the tech industry. And as President Donald Trump flailed for ways to subvert his 2020 election loss, Lee asked the White House for talking points, texting Chief of Staff Mark Meadows to ask: “Please tell me what I should be saying.”

But McMullin has shown no indication that he would be any better at constraining the size and scope of the federal government, especially in foreign affairs. In 2016, McMullin contended that while he had opposed the war in Iraq from its outset, he also bemoaned “the costs of retreating into passivity” by not aggressively pursuing the Islamic State across both Iraq and Syria. He said the U.S. should impose a no-fly zone in Syria and establish U.S.-protected “humanitarian safe zones” in neighboring countries.

Earlier this year, when Russia invaded Ukraine, McMullin tweeted that the U.S. should “bolster our presence in Eastern Europe.” Why the U.S. should double down on its continued involvement in the military affairs of European nations wealthy enough to provide for their each other’s collective defense was left unsaid.

Lee, by contrast, has been a voice against foreign intervention, often bucking his own party. He supported a Senate resolution blocking U.S. funding for further involvement in the Saudi/United Arab Emirates bombings of Yemen. Last year he cosponsored a bill that would return some of the president’s war powers to Congress, in keeping with how the roles were constitutionally envisioned. After Lee made a similar plea in 2020, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R–S.C.) accused the Utah senator of “empowering the enemy.”

Besides the ongoing Ukraine crisis, the Biden administration recently authorized the re-deployment of troops into Somalia—and the U.S. is still involved in the war in Yemen. Washington needs all the war skeptics it can get.

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Small Change Tolerance Slippery Slopes and the Desire to Avoid Seeming Extremist or Petty


slippery

[This month, I’m serializing my 2003 Harvard Law Review article, The Mechanisms of the Slippery Slope.]

Say you care little about the .50-caliber rifle ban, but your neighbor strongly supports or opposes it. His vote in the election, he says, will be influenced by the candidates’ views on the ban, and he has donated time and money to pro- or anti-ban groups.

If you don’t think the law will tend to lead to broader laws, you might think this fellow is a bit extremist. Some people might enjoy being perceived as rigid on such matters: “Extremism in the defense of liberty,” they might say, echoing Barry Goldwater, “is no vice.” But people who like to see themselves and to be seen by others as “moderate” might not want such a reputation, and might therefore adopt a small change tolerance heuristic. And this may apply to legislators as well as voters—though some legislators cultivate a reputation for never budging on some issues, others might want to avoid looking like “rigid ideologues” to their constituents, or alienating colleagues with whom they’ll have to work again.

Small change tolerance slippery slopes can therefore happen when a law’s opponents don’t want to seem extremist but the law’s supporters don’t mind appearing this way, either because they’re extremist by temperament or because the status quo looks so bad to them that they feel a strong “don’t just stand there, do something” effect. Supporters will push for small changes, and opponents won’t push back much. {Of course, if a law’s supporters don’t want to insistently press their case, but the law’s opponents don’t mind seeming insistent, the law will more easily be blocked, and the slippery slope likely won’t happen. The small change tolerance slippery slope, like the other slippery slopes, happens under particular political circumstances; it is a plausible phenomenon, but far from a certain one.}

Small change tolerance slippery slopes can also interact with other slippery slopes, for instance when step A ends up being easily evaded and then a small extension B is promoted as a “loophole-closing measure.” The combination of some people’s opposition to situations where a law is being evaded (an enforcement need slippery slope), A‘s enactment changing others’ minds about B‘s merits (an attitude-altering slippery slope), and the tendency of still others not to care much about small loophole-closing proposals (a small change tolerance slippery slope) can facilitate decision B once A is enacted, even if B would have been rejected at the outset had it been initially proposed instead of A.

Finally, small change tolerance can also be reinforced by the need to compromise. Legislators and appellate judges often have to give up something on one issue to get what they want on another, and such compromise is naturally more common on small matters than on big ones. {Few judges will explicitly offer to change their votes on one case in exchange for a colleague’s vote on another, but judges routinely compromise on an opinion’s wording (either when an authoring judge changes the wording or when another judge doesn’t insist on a change) to persuade another judge to join, to increase the chances of the authoring judge changing the opinion on another point, or to earn the authoring judge’s goodwill on a future case.} Decisionmakers might thus be more willing to compromise on a small step A, then small extension B, and then small extension C than they would have been had the larger extension C been proposed up front.

The post Small Change Tolerance Slippery Slopes and the Desire to Avoid Seeming Extremist or Petty appeared first on Reason.com.

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