Anti-BDS Laws’ Certification Requirement

Michael Dorf, Andrew Koppelman, and I have written elsewhere about why we think laws banning government contractors from refusing to deal with Israeli companies are generally constitutional. In this respect, we think such bans are like the government barring universities that get government funds from excluding military recruiters from recruitment fairs, or barring businesses that get government funds (and even ones that don’t) from discriminating based on race, religion, etc. Refusals to deal are unprotected conduct, not protected speech. (The long version is here.)

Some people, however, have objected to a different provision of the laws: that contractors certify that they aren’t boycotting Israeli companies through such refusals to deal. This certification, some have argued, is itself an impermissible speech compulsion.

I think that’s mistaken; these requirements are like any other contractual provisions on which the government insists (in particular, like contractual warranties). The Arkansas anti-BDS law, for instance, provides,

a public entity shall not … [e]nter into a contract with a company … unless the contract includes a written certification that the person or company is not currently engaged in, and agrees for the duration of the contract not to engage in, a boycott of Israel.

This is just like a contract in which the company certifies that it’s paying prevailing wage to its employees, or that it’s using some fraction of American-made goods, or is using only organically farmed products, or that it will comply with antidiscrimination rules, or what have you. It’s true that entering into a contract involves communication (e.g., “I accept your offer” or “I agree to this contract”), but that doesn’t mean that government insistence on particular contractual provisions is generally subject to First Amendment scrutiny. Indeed, the formation of contracts is generally regulated by a wide range of laws that are not seen as subject to First Amendment scrutiny.

To be sure, requiring promises not to speak in a contract may violate the First Amendment, as would requiring assurances that the contracting party adheres to some ideological views. But requiring a promise not to act in a particular way is not itself an impermissible speech compulsion.

The Eighth Circuit en banc court in Arkansas Times, Inc. v. Waldrip was thus generally right when it held:

Arkansas Times also argues that the statute unconstitutionally compels speech by requiring it to include a certification that the company will not “boycott” Israel for the duration of the contract. The First Amendment protects “both the right to speak freely and the right to refrain from speaking at all.” The compelled speech doctrine prohibits the government from making someone disseminate a political or ideological message.

“Compelled statements of fact … like compelled statements of opinion, are subject to First Amendment scrutiny.” But the certification requirement here is markedly different from other compelled speech cases. Although it requires contractors to agree to a contract provision they would otherwise not include, it does not require them to publicly endorse or disseminate a message. Instead, the certification targets the noncommunicative aspect of the contractors’ conduct—unexpressive commercial choices. The “speech” aspect— signing the certification—is incidental to the regulation of conduct [the conduct presumably being the entry into a contract -EV].

We are not aware of any cases where a court has held that a certification requirement concerning unprotected, nondiscriminatory conduct is unconstitutionally compelled speech. A factual disclosure of this kind, aimed at verifying compliance with unexpressive conduct-based regulations, is not the kind of compelled speech prohibited by the First Amendment.

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The Federal Student Loan Program Was Supposed To Pay for Itself. Now, It’ll Cost Taxpayers $197 Billion


Silhouettes of students wearing caps. The students are made out of money.

The Federal Student Loan Program is often criticized as a source of revenue for the federal government. But a new report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) shows that the present situation can’t be further from the truth. 

When the Federal Direct Student Loan Program began in 1994, the Department of Education estimated that it would generate $114 billion in revenue for the federal government. Almost 30 years later, the program is estimated to cost the government $197 billion, a staggering difference of over $300 billion. The Federal Student Loan Program has failed, and the cost of its failures will be shouldered by the American public.     

The largest contributor to the increased cost of the Direct Loan Program is the ongoing pause on student loan payments initiated during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to GAO, previous forms of government spending only increased the cost of the program by around $14 billion. COVID-19 relief, on the other hand, cost the government almost $108 billion in revenue. Even more concerning, the cost of the COVID-19 student loan pause is likely even higher, as the GAO did not include 2022 data in its estimates.

The other sources of the massive cost of the program are more complicated. The GAO notes that the Direct Loan Program has undergone a series of programmatic changes over the years, most notably the creation of the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program and the Income-Based Repayment Plan. While these programs added billions to the cost of the Direct Loan program, 61 percent of the program’s increased estimated cost has come from complicated changes in the economy and the behavior of borrowers.

Income-Driven Repayment plans, such as the 2007 Income-Based Repayment Plan and the 2015 Pay As You Earn Plan, were created to allow students with low-paying jobs to get an indefinite reduction on their student loans. These programs limit the monthly loan payment to an “affordable amount,” which is 10 percent or 15 percent of the borrower’s discretionary income, depending on the program enrollment date.

47 percent of all borrowers are enrolled in an Income-Driven Repayment plan, a percentage that has grown steadily over time. These borrowers tend to earn less and borrow more than other students, highlighting a fundamental failing of the Direct Loan Program: If student borrowers were receiving a valuable return on their investment when they took out student loans, so many of them would not be making so little money that they can only afford to pay small amounts each month.

This particular failing highlights how miserably the Direct Loan Program has failed to achieve its promise of accessible college education and the middle-class quality of life which comes with it. Instead of helping more students access a college education, the Direct Loan Program has incentivized schools to dramatically increase tuition prices, bringing the prospect of affordable education even further out of reach for American students.

Rather than providing students with the skills to obtain high-paying jobs—jobs that make it fairly painless to repay a modest student loan balance—students are increasingly borrowing staggering sums to obtain degrees that barely help them achieve gainful employment. The staggering cost of the Direct Loan Program is yet another reason to retire it. While the program’s contribution to the dramatic increase in college tuition prices should be enough to raise concerns, the fact that the program is running hundreds of billions of dollars over budget is even more cause for alarm.

 

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The Federal Student Loan Program Was Supposed To Pay for Itself. Now, It’ll Cost Taxpayers $197 Billion


Silhouettes of students wearing caps. The students are made out of money.

The Federal Student Loan Program is often criticized as a source of revenue for the federal government. But a new report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) shows that the present situation can’t be further from the truth. 

When the Federal Direct Student Loan Program began in 1994, the Department of Education estimated that it would generate $114 billion in revenue for the federal government. Almost 30 years later, the program is estimated to cost the government $197 billion, a staggering difference of over $300 billion. The Federal Student Loan Program has failed, and the cost of its failures will be shouldered by the American public.     

The largest contributor to the increased cost of the Direct Loan Program is the ongoing pause on student loan payments initiated during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to GAO, previous forms of government spending only increased the cost of the program by around $14 billion. COVID-19 relief, on the other hand, cost the government almost $108 billion in revenue. Even more concerning, the cost of the COVID-19 student loan pause is likely even higher, as the GAO did not include 2022 data in its estimates.

The other sources of the massive cost of the program are more complicated. The GAO notes that the Direct Loan Program has undergone a series of programmatic changes over the years, most notably the creation of the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program and the Income-Based Repayment Plan. While these programs added billions to the cost of the Direct Loan program, 61 percent of the program’s increased estimated cost has come from complicated changes in the economy and the behavior of borrowers.

Income-Driven Repayment plans, such as the 2007 Income-Based Repayment Plan and the 2015 Pay As You Earn Plan, were created to allow students with low-paying jobs to get an indefinite reduction on their student loans. These programs limit the monthly loan payment to an “affordable amount,” which is 10 percent or 15 percent of the borrower’s discretionary income, depending on the program enrollment date.

47 percent of all borrowers are enrolled in an Income-Driven Repayment plan, a percentage that has grown steadily over time. These borrowers tend to earn less and borrow more than other students, highlighting a fundamental failing of the Direct Loan Program: If student borrowers were receiving a valuable return on their investment when they took out student loans, so many of them would not be making so little money that they can only afford to pay small amounts each month.

This particular failing highlights how miserably the Direct Loan Program has failed to achieve its promise of accessible college education and the middle-class quality of life which comes with it. Instead of helping more students access a college education, the Direct Loan Program has incentivized schools to dramatically increase tuition prices, bringing the prospect of affordable education even further out of reach for American students.

Rather than providing students with the skills to obtain high-paying jobs—jobs that make it fairly painless to repay a modest student loan balance—students are increasingly borrowing staggering sums to obtain degrees that barely help them achieve gainful employment. The staggering cost of the Direct Loan Program is yet another reason to retire it. While the program’s contribution to the dramatic increase in college tuition prices should be enough to raise concerns, the fact that the program is running hundreds of billions of dollars over budget is even more cause for alarm.

 

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“Black Women Who Once Hated Guns Are Embracing Them as Crime Soars”

From today’s article in the Washington Post (Peter Jamison) (reprinted, without a paywall, in the Philadelphia Tribune), documenting a trend that I generally very much favor:

Like many Black women in [the D.C. area] …, [Patrice Parker had] viewed guns for most of her life as the root of the violence that had wrecked countless lives in her community.

That changed, paradoxically, after her son was shot to death in a parking lot not far from her home. Exasperated with the police response and in despair over the sheer number of weapons on the streets, Parker decided there was only one way to protect what remained of her family. And that was to pick up a gun herself.

“I always felt like you needed to take the guns off the street. But the way things are now …. I don’t feel safe anymore,” she said. “You can’t trust nobody.”

Across America, Black women are taking up arms in unprecedented numbers…. Scarred—sometimes literally—by the firsthand consequences of gun violence and disenchanted with decades of urban gun-control policies that they regard as largely ineffective, some Black women in D.C. and other cities are embracing a view long espoused by Second Amendment activists: that only guns will make them safer….

As a child growing up in Southeast Washington during that era, Keeon Johnson learned to fear the weapons that routinely ended the lives of her neighbors.

“I wasn’t into guns at all,” Johnson said, “because we were told that guns were bad.”

Decades later, serving as the Democratic chairwoman of an Advisory Neighborhood Commission in Ward 8, Johnson began to wonder whether her faith in her party’s repeated promises of stricter gun control was misplaced…. [Eventually, s]he and her husband, Frenchie Johnson, … became NRA-certified instructors last year. Now they teach classes, catering specifically to Black people from D.C. and Prince George’s, out of their home in White Plains, Md….

One of their first students was Janae Hammett, 37, who had gone to elementary school with Johnson in D.C. and whose children’s father was shot to death in 2010. Given that history, Hammett said she was initially “on eggshells” around guns. But her comfort level increased the more she shot, and eventually she joined Johnson in forming the Second Amendment Sista Society, a club for Black women in the Washington region who are interested in guns.

Hammett said her transformation was driven, fundamentally, by desperation. Illegal guns, it seemed, were everywhere. If she couldn’t count on anyone else to protect her, why shouldn’t she legally own a gun to protect herself?

“I don’t think the government, police or anybody will ever get a hold of the illegal guns,” she said….

As a woman in a dangerous place, she had always feared she would be unable to defend her family. Her son’s killers were still out there. But with a gun, Parker felt less vulnerable, especially with the knowledge she had gained at the Choppa Community [a local gun range].

“They took the fear out of me,” she said.

Parker was waiting for the paperwork to come through on her concealed-carry license, and in the meantime she was trying to share her revelation with others….

The article cites two experts who argue that gun possession undermines safety rather than promoting it, but none who argues the contrary (and there certainly are prominent criminologists, such as Gary Kleck, who have indeed argued that gun possession generally tends to make the possessor safer). But in any case, I thought it was noteworthy that the article documented this thread, and took a generally positive tone on it.

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John Cleese: Wokeism Is the Enemy of Comedy—and Creativity


john-cleese

In a career that has spanned seven decades—and included classic shows and movies such as Monty Python’s Flying Circus, Fawlty Towers, Life of Brian, and A Fish Called Wanda—the comedian John Cleese has uproariously and relentlessly satirized politics and religion while stretching the boundaries of decorum and good taste like so many silly walks.

Now 82, Cleese—who studied law at Cambridge—has recently set his sights on political correctness and wokeism, which he says are the enemy not only of humor but of creative thinking in all areas of human activity.

I caught up with him at FreedomFest, the annual July gathering of libertarians in Las Vegas. Cleese was the keynote speaker, there to discuss creativity, which was the subject of his 2020 book of the same title. It’s a quick and excellent read, summarizing a wide range of psychological research on the topic and drawing from his own experiences.

It’s a myth “that creativity is something you have to be born with,” he argues. “Anyone can be creative.” He also contends that “you can teach creativity,” writing, “you can teach people how to create circumstances in which they will become creative.”

After giving a talk on the attitudes and habits of mind he believes are necessary for creativity to 2,500 attendees at FreedomFest, I interviewed Cleese from the main stage about the importance of freedom of thought and expression when it comes to being creative, why wokeism is the enemy of that, and why creativity is so important to progress and civilization.

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In Iowa, You No Longer Need a Permit To Sell Guns Across the Road from the Governor’s Mansion


Gun sales receipt

A new law signed by Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds limiting local governments’ power to regulate home businesses is letting her neighbors open a home-based gun dealership without the need for a city permit.

This past Wednesday, the Des Moines Register reports, the Des Moines Zoning Board of Adjustment was supposed to hold a public hearing to vet an application from homeowners Travis and Elizabeth Aslin to set up a home-based business that would sell firearms online and allow for on-site pickups.

The Aslins’ plan for their home-based business—which would be located just across the street from the Iowa governor’s mansion—set off a storm of controversy from the neighbors, who argued it could lead to an increase in crime and reduction in property values.

“There is a potential for weapons that can be purchased and fired from this property to have a range of nearly 2000 [feet]—this affect hundreds of houses, businesses, daycares, domestic violence shelters, a school, and the governor’s mansion,” reads the petition, which was signed some 170 people.

This kind of organized public opposition is often enough to sink conditional use applications. But not in this case.

The day before the Zoning Board of Adjustment was supposed to hold its public hearing on the Aslins permit, the board abruptly took it off the agenda.

Erik Lundy, a city zoning enforcement officer, issued a letter explaining that the Aslins’ proposed firearm selling business qualified as a “no-impact home-based business” under the new home-based business bill signed into law by Reynolds in June.

Travis Aslin also told Axios that his business was more of a hobby and that he’s sold only two guns in the last five years from his previous home.

The new law prohibits local governments from banning no-impact businesses, provided they don’t generate off-street parking and the business activity takes place inside the house and can’t be viewed by the neighbors. The law also prevents local governments from requiring no-impact home businesses to obtain permits, licenses, or other permissions.

Lundy said the state law prevented the city from requiring the Aslins to get a permit. His letter notes that Travis Aslin’s firearm business is already regulated by the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, which can conduct yearly unannounced inspections.

Lundy’s letter means the couple can now go ahead with their business. Some of the neighborhood opponents told the Des Moines Register they were planning on appealing the zoning board’s decision and will take it all the way to the local district court if necessary.

The typical conditional use permit controversy normally goes the other way: The property owner is forced to file endless appeals trying to convince the neighbors and city officials that they should be allowed to do what they want with their property.

Iowa’s new protections for home-based businesses have turned that dynamic on its head. It’s now local NIMBYs that have to spin their wheels and spend their money, arguing a new home-based business will be a detriment to the neighborhood that should be stopped.

Fortunately, Iowa’s new home-based business law forces local authorities to focus on the actual impacts of businesses on their neighbors. That pushes local government regulation toward its proper role of combating legitimate nuisances, while otherwise leaving people free to use their property as they see fit.

And if that means a gun dealer can set up shop next to the governor’s house, all the better.

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Short Circuit: A Roundup of Recent Federal Court Decisions

Please enjoy the latest edition of Short Circuit, a weekly feature written by a bunch of people at the Institute for Justice.

New on the Short Circuit podcast: Atlanta criminal defense attorney Andrew Fleischman joins the panel to talk absolute prosecutorial immunity and why the Fulton County DA’s hotly anticipated prosecution of Donald Trump would almost certainly be removed to federal court (where a jury pool would have slightly different leanings than one from Atlanta). Big spoiler: It’s because of the War of 1812.

  • After a jury convicts Libyan man on four counts for his role in 2012 Benghazi terrorist attack (acquitting on another 14 counts), the district court sentences him to 22 years—despite sentencing guidelines that suggest life plus 10 years. D.C. Circuit: It’s okay that the judge didn’t sentence him based on the conduct he was acquitted of, but even setting that aside the downward departure from the guidelines is unreasonable. Judge Millett, concurring: It’s still kind of crazy we add years to people’s sentences for conduct they were acquitted of.
  • Before a federal agency issues a rule, it must go through the lengthy notice and comment process. And if an agency wants to repeal a rule it must do the same thing. But what if just before a new president takes office, an agency says it’s issuing a final rule that will become final in a few weeks, and the new administration repeals the rule before that time comes (as apparently happened in 2017, 2009, 2001, and 1993—to name just a few). Should the agency have gone through notice and comment before repealing? The majority of a D.C. Circuit panel says yes and characterizes the gov’t’s argument to the contrary to be that such a rule “exists in a state of superposition like Schrödinger’s cat—simultaneously law and not law until the agency publishes or withdraws it.”
  • Another week, another federal circuit opinion—this time from the D.C. Circuit—affirming the FDA’s decision to deny pre-market approval to thousands of vaping products.
  • Man out front of the Bronx County Hall of Justice—with a sign that reads “Jury Info” and pamphlets that say “Google Jury Nullification”—is arrested under a statute prohibiting disseminating information within 200 feet of a courthouse “concerning the conduct of a trial being held in such courthouse.” After being released, he sues under the First Amendment, winning an injunction in district court. Second Circuit: Well, first of all, the guy has standing. I mean, he was arrested. And the statute’s definitely bad as applied to what he was doing and others doing similar stuff. But it probably isn’t unconstitutional as a facial matter. Injunction vacated and case remanded. Partial dissent: The statute’s so bad it’s facially overbroad in a couple of different ways.
  • Groups managing nursing homes and assisted living facilities throughout the Northeast clash with unions representing employees at the facilities. Unions allege that the facilities engaged in a slew of unfair labor practices, such as improperly terminating employees and suppressing union communications. The facilities allege that the unions vandalized the facilities, brought on an HHS audit, and engaged in other extortionate behavior amounting to a RICO violation. District court: It’s never RICO. Third Circuit: It actually might be here.
  • Wise County, Va. prison guards and inmate get into a physical altercation following a dispute over an empty peanut-butter jar. Inmate promptly and repeatedly seeks videos of the encounter. Zoinks! Some of the videos weren’t preserved. Spoliation? District court: Don’t worry about it. The videos that exist supports the officers’ testimony. Fourth Circuit: We’re worried about it.
  • Following a trial on whether Virginia Beach’s system of at-large voting districts violated the Voting Rights Act—but before judgment—the Virginia Assembly outlawed the system. Fourth Circuit: So the case is moot. But since you’ve done most of the work you would do to challenge the new system, we’ll remand and the trial court can decide whether you can amend your complaint. Dissent: The new law didn’t fix everything, so the case is not moot.
  • For over two months and without a warrant, DHS agents constantly surveil the front and back of Houston home by means of cameras placed on poles outside. A Fourth Amendment violation? The Fifth Circuit says no; anyone strolling by could take in the same view. No need to suppress the evidence; defendant’s 18-year sentence for his part in a marijuana-growing operation is affirmed, as is the forfeiture of his home, boat, weapons, and $7.2 mil. (N.B.: For an opposing view, might we recommend this IJ amicus brief?)
  • Sabine County, Tex. deputy sheriff conducting welfare check allegedly makes a series of sexually charged comments and sexually assaults woman. She files a complaint (at least the fourth filed against him) for sexual misconduct with the Texas Rangers, he’s indicted, and she sues. District court: No constitutional violation here. Sheriff: Qualified immunity. Fifth Circuit: Both of you are very, very wrong.
  • “1-1-1!” No, that isn’t an emergency number or a Herman Cain campaign promise. It’s the breakdown of this Fifth Circuit case brought by disabled students who wanted to enjoin the Texas Attorney General’s order forbidding schools from issuing mask mandates. One judge has a lot to say about how masks didn’t give the plaintiffs standing, one judge dissents, and one judge oddly only concurs on the facts and the redressability prong of standing.
  • Guards at a Louisiana private prison empty a can of pepper spray on a prisoner and repeatedly drop him on his head before taking him to the “Four-Way,” the one corner of the prison that cameras don’t reach, for two hours. The man later dies of a skull fracture. District court: No one’s liable for nothin’. Fifth Circuit (over dissent): We review the facts in the plaintiffs’ favor. The officers used excessive force and they worked in concert to cause the injuries that killed this man. Also, both the city and corporation knew about these cruel practices, and they did nothing to stop it, so those claims survive too.
  • District court: It’s obvious that jail officers shouldn’t throw scalding water on detainees, and here are some prior cases (about chaining a prisoner to a post and choking a restrained detainee unconscious and leaving him to die) that clearly establish the law on that. Sixth Circuit (unpublished): And since there’s no video or anything that shows otherwise, we have to treat the detainee’s allegations as fact. No qualified immunity for this Grayson County, Ky, jail officer.
  • Plaintiffs: Columbus, Ohio’s Historic Preservation Code lets a small band of private citizens dictate what we do with our own property in arbitrary ways. Sixth Circuit: Actually, Columbus’s Historic Preservation Code lets a duly-appointed commission (which may—may!—even include lawyers or bankers) issue totally cool commands that you jerkwads should have just obeyed.
  • When Peninsula Township, Mich. wineries challenge local ordinances that restrict wine sales and prohibit hosting weddings, among other things, a local NIMBY group seeks to intervene in the lawsuit. The district court tosses their motion and rules that the ordinances are either unconstitutional or preempted by state law. Sixth Circuit: Not so fast. Even though the township strenuously fought the lawsuit, the NIMBYs’ interests (property values, quiet enjoyment of their homes, viability of their farms) are different from the township’s (preserving the public fisc). Let them in.
  • Can Loyola Chicago undergrad students get a refund on tuition because they were deprived “of in-person instruction and access to on-campus facilities” while COVID-19 had shut everything down? Seventh Circuit: Some of their breach of contract claims are cognizable under Illinois law and may proceed.
  • In 2021, the feds put a stop to what had been a regular July 4th fireworks display at Mt. Rushmore, denying South Dakota officials’ request for a permit due to COVID-19, wildfire risks, and tribal opposition, among other things. (And in 2022, the feds deny the permit again.) Was the denial arbitrary and capricious? We’d need a time machine to let you do the fireworks now, says the Eighth Circuit, and who’s to say whether the permit will be denied in 2023 and why? This case is moot.
  • St. Louis man guffaws at rally by then-presidential candidate Donald Trump, leading Trump to command the crowd to “Get him out of here!” He’s arrested and charged with disturbing the peace but acquitted at trial. The man then sues the police for arresting him without probable cause. Eighth Circuit: Even if they didn’t have actual probable cause, they did have arguable probable cause, and that’s enough to give everyone involved qualified immunity.
  • Allegation: 7-year-old with bruises and abrasions tells school that her father beat her with a belt. When Des Moines, Iowa detectives come to her home with a social worker, her mother declines to let them in or bring her out. After six minutes of arguing, the mother is arrested for “interference with official acts.” Eighth Circuit: The officers could either go get a warrant or look for an exigent circumstance to enter the home without one, but what they couldn’t do was arrest her. Her “passive failure to cooperate” did not even create arguable probable cause that she was interfering with an official act. No qualified immunity.
  • The Eighth Circuit‘s said it before, and it’s sayin’ it again: The St. Louis officers who rounded up scores of allegedly peaceful protestors using a kettling technique are not entitled to qualified immunity for seizing the protestors. But since the plaintiffs did not adequately allege excessive force, QI will preclude those claims. Dissent: The complaint here is almost identical to the last case, where we said no QI for excessive force. So the conclusion should be the same here.
  • Allegation: Property owner overhears Honolulu building inspector say that he’s causing costly delays to renovation project because the owner hired non-Hawaiian contractors. Unconstitutional interference with his right to make contracts? Could be, says the Ninth Circuit. Even if the delays were justifiable, the right to be free from racial animus in public decisions is clearly established. No qualified immunity. (N.B.: Interested readers might note that the suit proceeds under Section 1981, and that at least 10 other circuits say that Section 1981 provides no private right of action for damages against state actors.)
  • Washington law prohibits displaying a weapon in a manner that “warrants alarm for the safety of other persons.” So did police have probable cause to arrest a Yakima County man after receiving reports that the man displayed a firearm? Ninth Circuit: Not in an open-carry state like Washington. The officers should have confirmed whether he displayed the weapon threateningly or alarmingly. All evidence found after the arrest (including an IED in the man’s car) are suppressed.
  • Are Twitter or Facebook pages maintained by public officials public fora under the First Amendment? The Ninth Circuit weighs in on this fast-growing doctrinal area (the answer is “sometimes”) but fails to acknowledge the really thorny question: the brewing circuit split over whether they’re “public fora” or “public forums.”
  • Allegation: Man convicted of sex offense at retrial is sentenced to a minimum of 10 years, which he has already served. Which means that under Washington state law, he’s to receive a parole hearing within 120 days. But parole board members blow that deadline by nine months. (The hearing ultimately results in his release.) Negligence? False imprisonment? Ninth Circuit: Can’t say. Parole board members are quasi-judges and thus protected by absolute immunity.
  • Allegation: Man forgets to remove belt, sets off Jackson Hole, Wyo. airport body scanner. TSA agents refuse to let him take off the belt and go through again, insisting instead on a groin pat, which the man equally insists he does not consent to. He’s arrested by local police, one of whom says that his stay in jail (which ultimately lasted three hours) is being prolonged because he keeps asking for a lawyer. Tenth Circuit: Drawing all factual inferences in favor of the plaintiff, as we must at this stage of the case, the gov’t says that’s not why his stay was prolonged. Case dismissed. And furthermore, his claims against the municipality (which he pursued without amending to the district court’s satisfaction) are so meritless that $55k sanctions against him and his attorneys are merited. (IJ filed an amicus brief arguing the sanctions aren’t merited.)
  • Moreover, holds the Tenth Circuit (same case as above), there is no prior case clearly establishing that an officer wrenching a handcuffed person’s wrist, injuring it, without provocation and in retaliation for their speech, would “chill a person of ordinary firmness” from continuing to engage in protected speech. (Nor is there such a case now.)
  • In response to a shooting spree that injured several children, Ocala, Fla. police chief—along with volunteer police chaplains—help to organize and sponsor a prayer vigil in the town square. Humanists and atheists attend the vigil and then sue, alleging Establishment Clause violations. Eleventh Circuit: And they have standing. But while this case was on appeal the Supreme Court killed the Lemon test that previously governed, so we’ll send this back down for reconsideration.

“He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance.” Anyway, apropos of nothing, we really can’t recommend this longform article on abusive code enforcement by Radley Balko in the Nashville Scene enough. Nashville is bad. Memphis is bad. Lots of other places are bad. It is bad to eat out people’s substance.

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Biden Admin To Complete More Of Trump’s Border Wall Project, Closing 4 Gaps

Biden Admin To Complete More Of Trump’s Border Wall Project, Closing 4 Gaps

Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Biden administration is set to close four wide gaps in the U.S.-Mexico border wall in an open area of southern Arizona near Yuma, to “address operational impacts” and “immediate life and safety risks.”

Illegal immigrants near a gap in the U.S.-Mexico border barrier, awaiting processing by the U.S. Border Patrol in Yuma, Arizona, on May 20, 2022. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

The four gaps are within an incomplete border barrier project—the former Yuma 6 project area near the Morelos Dam, according to a press release from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). 

The area has become one of the busiest corridors for illegal crossings.

The border barrier project, which was operational under the Trump administration, was left incomplete after President Joe Biden in 2021 sent back $2.2 billion in border wall funds to the Department of Defense to be used for overseas defense construction projects. The funds had previously been diverted by President Donald Trump to build the border wall, which at one time was going up at the pace of one mile a day. Completing the border wall was among Trump’s top campaign promises.

“Due to the proximity to the Morelos Dam and the swift moving Colorado River, this area presents safety and life hazard risks for migrants attempting to cross into the United States where there is a risk of drownings and injuries from falls,” the DHS stated on July 28. “This area also poses a life and safety risk to first responders and agents responding to incidents in this area.

A U.S. Customs and Border Protection Border Patrol agent patrols after sunset along a gap in the border wall at the Morelos Dam between the U.S. and Mexico in Yuma, Arizona, on May 31, 2022. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images)

Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas authorized the project’s completion, which will be paid for out of the DHS’s fiscal year 2021 budget.

“Prior to construction, DHS will engage in standard environmental planning and conduct stakeholder outreach and consultation. DHS will move as expeditiously as possible, while still maintaining environmental stewardship,” the statement continued. “This project supports CBP’s and DHS’s priority to deploy modern, effective border measures and also improving safety and security along the Southwest Border.”

Illegal immigrants wait in line to be processed by the U.S. Border Patrol after crossing through a gap in the U.S.-Mexico border barrier in Yuma, Ariz., on May 21, 2022. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

The U.S. Border Patrol’s Yuma Sector has quickly emerged as the third busiest of nine sectors along the border, with much of the traffic funneling through the Morelos Dam. Illegal immigrants arrive in the small town of Algodones and walk unencumbered across a concrete ledge on the dam to the United States, where they wait for U.S. Border Patrol agents to take them into custody.

In the Yuma sector alone, U.S. border agents stopped illegal immigrants 160,482 times from January through June, a figure nearly four times that of the same period in 2021, according to CBP data. The only other sectors with more traffic were Del Rio and Rio Grande Valley in South Texas.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/29/2022 – 17:00

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‘Powell-Pivot’ Hope Sends Stocks To Best Month Since April 2020, Crypto & Credit Soar

‘Powell-Pivot’ Hope Sends Stocks To Best Month Since April 2020, Crypto & Credit Soar

The ‘most hated’ rally ever was sparked by a belief in ‘peak inflation’, and desperate faith that Powell will ‘pivot’ from his hawkish course sooner rather than later – reigniting a ‘bad news is great news’ trading mantra once again. Powell and his pals went full ‘Leeroy Jenkins’ on global macro traders having been browbeaten by the Biden admin into easing up (or appearing to)…

July saw The Fed’s rate-hike trajectory curtailed and the market priced in a dramatic rate-cutting cycle starting in Q1 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

This sent stocks, bonds, and crypto (and financial conditions) all soaring on the month.

The rally in everything has ‘eased’ financial conditions again – almost exactly the same amplitude of easing we have seen 4 other times during this tightening cycle. We have pointed this cyclical shift before with lower highs (tighter peaks to each easing sub-cycle) and lower lows (tighter tights)…suggesting perhaps The Fed is well aware that tightenig aggressively in one big batch will crush the market (and the economy), so perhaps a ‘gently does it’ approach is more palatable… and judging by the emplitude of this ‘easing sub-cycle’, we could be facing another tightening leg down…

Source: Bloomberg

As Nomura’s Charlie McElligott notes:

“The trick here is this next few weeks window, where the resumption of Fed-speak could begin to lean back into the market’s impulse EASING of FCI following the Fed meeting and Powell’s comments.”

Nasdaq was the biggest gainer (longest duration) in the US Majors, with its best monthly gain since April 2020 (S&P’s best month since Nov 2020)…

On the week, stocks dumped and pumped early in the week and then exploded higher after the FOMC statement and Powell’s presser. Nasdaq is up almost 5% from right before the FOMC statement…

The rip in stocks should not be a total shock, as we noted right after Powell’s presser:

it is quite likely that we will now see unprecedented chasing by funds and even L/Os into a ramping market, at least until such time as Powell realizes what he has done and trapdoors stocks again, sending the S&P to new 2022 lows next time, at which point the real “ugly bear” recession can begin, and setting the Fed on course to not just rate cuts but negative rates and trillions more in QE.”

Goldman’s Chris Hussey sees three potential ways investors may be looking at markets and the data today – and any of these three have the potential to be sustained beyond July.

1. Recovery now. The economy may be eroding but markets just seem to be pricing in the future sooner and faster than ever before. Perhaps stocks are already looking through the economic downturn ahead of us and pricing in the recovery to come — a recovery that might be aided by an eventual Fed funds cutting cycle as soon as 2023.

2. Behind us. We learned this week that real 2Q22 GDP growth declined by almost 1%. This comes on the back of a 1.5% decline in GDP growth in 1Q22. Traditionally, a recession has been defined by (or at least taken place alongside) consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. So by that precedent, the recession may have already occurred. Some may consider it to be silly to fear something you already went through. Time to move on and buy stocks.

3. Never happened. If the first half of 2022 was a recession, then I have no idea what I was so worried about. Alongside this ‘recession’ we also experienced one of the lowest unemployment rates in US history and EPS for the S&P 500 is on pace to have grown ~10%. Full employment and double digit EPS growth should make for a better environment for stocks than the 20% ytd decline we experienced going into July.

And on the ‘things-can’t-get-any-worse’ front, after a period that included 2 Covid spikes, a Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a notable growth slowdown alongside a spike in inflation, the fundamental outlook from here may indeed be on pace to only get better.

But – he adds – to be sure, a couple of bad days of trading and a few words from the Fed may reverse the gains we’ve seen in July and shift market sentiment on a dime — as we’ve seen at times earlier this year.

But for now, you also can’t fault the market for trying to look beyond the ‘here & now’ to a better future.

Thanks to last night’s earnings-driven surge, Amazon was up a stunning 27% in July – its best month since Oct 2009 (note that it merely filled the gap from Q1 earnings)

Credit markets soared in July, with HYG (US HY Bond ETF) having its best month since Oct 2011. Notably HYG found support near the 2020 crash lows before The Fed stepped in…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit spreads compressed dramatically in July

Source: Bloomberg

However, Goldman’s Lofti Karoui warns spreads have come “too far too soon” – fade the rally and recommend using it as opportunity to cut risk and rotate further up in quality.

Treasuries were aggressively bid this month with the belly the massive outperformer (7Y -40bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

For context, July saw the 2nd best combined US bond and stock monthly return since March 2000 (April 2020 was the best). Globally, bond and stock market value has risen a stunning $7 trillion in the last two weeks.

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos exploded higher after mid-month dovish narrative shift with Ethereum soaring over 70% and Bitcoin up around 28% in July – its best month since Jan 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum is back at around $1700, notably outperforming Bitcoin in this latest ramp (which managed to get back to $24,000)….

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended only marginally higher on the month after early gains were erased on the dovish hopes…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities – broadly speaking – rollercoastered on the month like everything else. Weakness in the first half amid global growth fears were swamped by a rally in the second on – you guessed it – global growth scares… the difference was the narrative that recessions (yep we said the r word) are a buying opportunity because The Fed will cut rates sooner and unleash more QE etc. Silver actually made it back to unchanged on the month while copper and crude lagged (but were well off their mid-month lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices have rebounded notably with WTI back above $100 today…

Gold traded (briefly) below $1700 during the month but has since rallied back above $1780…

One commodity was dramatically higher in July – US NatGas exploded higher to 14 year highs…

Which is not good news for President Biden (or anyone who drives a non-EV) as gas prices are about turn back up…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we hate to steal the jam out of the market’s donut but we have seen this pattern twice before in this rate-hiking cycle as ‘peak inflation’ or ‘Fed pivot’ hype sparked a short-squeeze decoupling between stocks (higher) and the market-implied expectations of The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

The trouble for ‘bad news is good news’ dip-buyers is simple – it’s path-dependent! You have to cross the tightening cycle rubicon into recession before The Fed will step back in and save the world. How many of these dip-buyers have the stones to face that path?

Oh and one more thing, if everything’s so awesome in the labor market (as the Biden admin likes to keep reminding us when faced with any call about a recession), why are record numbers buying lottery tickets to escape the ugliness

Is this the new American Dream?

Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/29/2022 – 16:01

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Enough With The Focus On Jobs: They Will Tell You Nothing About The Recession

Enough With The Focus On Jobs: They Will Tell You Nothing About The Recession

Yesterday we joked that the same economists who a year ago were droning on that inflation was transitory are the same ones who now claim that there is no recession.

And while this topic has become absurdly comical…

… it’s dead serious to those millions who are about to lose their jobs.

So playing devil’s advocate for a second, what is the overarching argument of the perpetually optimistic “team transitory no-recession”? Well, in a nutshell it is that jobs are nowhere near low enough to justify a recession, and while that may be accurate at the establishment survey level, it is certainly not the case at the Household survey as we first pointed out several weeks ago…

… and as Goldman subsequently piggybacked.

But there is a much simpler reason why the “jobs, jobs, jobs” defense is silly to the point of being amateur hour. And that is that jobs are a lagging indicator. Deeply lagging. Furthermore, as we pointed out recently, the median payroll 10 months before a recession is the same as the final month before a recession with little sign of a trend in the months between!

In other words, jobs have precisely ZERO signaling power ahead of a recession.

But while we felt like we were taking crazy pills there for a while, where supposedly all the “smart experts” were supposed to realize that jobs are lagging and have zero bearing at all on recession timing, on Friday afternoon Bloomberg Markets Live commentator Vincent Cignarella reassured us of our sanity when he wrote an article titled “Enough with the focus on jobs. They’re a lagging indicator… It’s econ 101.”

And yet, it appears that nobody has taken Econ 101, especially the so-called experts. As Cignarella points out “from the Fed to the Treasury Secretary to just about every analyst on the Street, there seems to be a consensus about a tight labor market necessitating monetary tightening. That’s like wishing you were still back in high school.” We couldn’t have said it better ourselves, so we give the mic to Vincent for the balance of this post:

Don’t buy the jobs hype. JOLTS began to decline on a year-over-basis some five months after the economy started losing steam and will continue to lag, offering no real clues for changes in monetary policy.

The University of Michigan expectations index is a much better leading indicator of where the state of the economy is headed. It leads the drop in GDP by some seven months and is still falling, according to Cignarella.

So what does that say for risk assets?

For Vincent, it means the Fed is going to overshoot the runway and pull back on rate hikes much sooner than markets are pricing in. That’s very bullish for stocks and bonds. A continued flattish-to-lower expectations index will likely lead to a risk rally from now until at least year end.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/29/2022 – 15:45

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