Why The US Is Desperate For A Russian Oil Price Cap

Why The US Is Desperate For A Russian Oil Price Cap

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

  • International oil prices are set to spike later this year when the EU ban on providing insurance for the transportation of Russian oil takes effect.

  • In order to stop pricing spiking, the United States is attempting to get major oil importers to endorse a plan to cap the price of Russian oil.

  • While China and India may be tempted to agree to an oil price cap, Russia could retaliate by stopping the export of oil.

The United States is looking to convince major oil importers, including Russia’s key buyers these days, China and India, to endorse a plan to cap the price of Russian oil they are buying.  The U.S. and other major developed Western economies are wary of letting international crude oil prices spike later this year when the EU ban on providing insurance and financing for seaborne transportation of Russian oil takes effect in December.   

Russia will be effectively shut out of more than 90% of the global oil shipment insurance market as most of the ports do not allow tankers to dock unless they have full insurance coverage, including insurance from the UK-based International Group of P&I Clubs, which handles 95% of the global tanker insurance market and consists mostly of UK, U.S., and European insurers.

This would severely cripple the flow of Russian oil globally, potentially leading to record-high oil prices, which the Biden Administration simply cannot afford to have right now, especially after boasting just a few days ago that “Gas prices are declining at one of the fastest rates we have seen in over a decade – we’re not letting up on our work to lower costs even further.” 

In addition, soaring fuel prices would further stoke already four-decade high inflation and further complicate the Fed’s efforts to tame that inflation with aggressive key interest rate hikes.  

So, the G7 group of leading industrialized nations, led by the U.S., is considering waiving the ban on insurance and all services enabling transportation of Russian oil if that oil is bought at or below a certain price, yet to be decided.  

The Biden Administration and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have been pushing for weeks to have as many oil buyers as possible agree to a price cap plan. The alternative – choking off a large part of Russian exports by denying altogether maritime transportation services – would send oil prices to never-seen highs, tanking the global economy with enormous fuel and energy costs and sending rampant inflation even higher. 

The U.S. Administration is holding talks on a possible price cap with major oil importers, including China and India, officials have told the Financial Times

China and India have stepped up purchases of heavily discounted Russian oil in recent months, while European buyers are retreating and winding down imports ahead of the EU embargo on imports of Russian seaborne crude and refined products set to kick in at the end of this year. 

“Russian production is going to fall when the services ban fully kicks in, unless we use the price cap to allow exports to continue,” an official close to the talks told FT, adding, “It is the one way of preventing a significant rise in prices.” 

The U.S. Administration believes that the insurance ban on Russian oil exports could severely cripple Moscow’s supply to the market, pushing up oil prices. Russian crude and products exports are too big as a share of the global oil market to not have access to tankers and insurance, U.S. officials tell FT. 

Therefore, the U.S. is trying to rally major oil importers around the idea that they would pay less for Russian oil under a price cap mechanism, while at the same time looking not to stifle 7-8% of the daily global oil and product flows. 

Cutting off most of Russia’s exports via the insurance ban without exemptions with a price cap would result in soaring oil prices which will negate any efforts to cut Putin’s revenues from oil, U.S. officials argue.  

“We want to keep it being sold somewhere in the global economy to hold down global oil prices generally, but we want to ensure that Russia doesn’t make undue profit from those sales,” Treasury Secretary Yellen told NPR last week.   

“And a price cap is the answer we’ve come up with to serve both of those objectives.” 

While negotiations are ongoing, an agreement is still a way away. 

“We’re trying to perfect the mechanism of how that would actually look and how it would work. We’re not at a point where we have an agreement,” Amos Hochstein, the special U.S. presidential coordinator for international energy affairs, told Yahoo Finance this weekend.   

“We have an agreement in principle with the major economies of the G7, but not an actual agreement,” Hochstein added. 

The implementation of a price cap would be a challenging undertaking and would ideally need China and India on board to have a real impact. The two large Asian importers could be inclined to entertain the idea of a price cap as this would reduce their energy import bills, a senior G7 official told Reuters this week.

Russian Retaliation?

Some analysts warn that a price cap would not only be difficult to implement, but it could also prompt Russia to retaliate by stopping the export of oil. 

Last week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia would not supply oil to the global markets if the price cap being discussed was set at a level below Russia’s cost of production.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has repeatedly said that the price cap would not be set below Russia’s cost of production. 

But last Friday, Russia issued a not-so-veiled warning to the countries considering joining a price cap mechanism. 

Russia’s Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina told Russian reporters on Friday that “as far as I understand, we will not supply oil to countries that will have imposed a price cap.” 

Russia will redirect its crude and refined products exports to those countries that “are ready to cooperate with us,” Nabiullina added.    

Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/29/2022 – 15:25

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SF Bay Area Housing Prices Suffer Largest One-Month Drop On Record

SF Bay Area Housing Prices Suffer Largest One-Month Drop On Record

Thanks to a combination of rising interest rates and economic uncertainty, Real Estate in the San Francisco Bay Area have begun to chill, sharply.

In fact, housing prices in the nine-county region suffered their largest one-month drop on record, falling 7% from May to June, with median prices of existing single-family houses dropping from $1.5 million to $1.4 million, according to the San Jose Mercury News, citing the California Association of Realtors.

“From this point on we probably won’t see another record price, at least for this year, for either the Bay Area or for the state,” said Oscar Wei, deputy chief economist with the California Association of Realtors, who noted that it’s uncommon to see such a sharp decline in June – which is typically the busy summer home-buying season.

In the core Bay Area, Alameda County saw the largest monthly price drop of 8% to $1.42 million. That was followed by San Francisco County with a 6% decline to $1.9 million, Santa Clara County with a 6% drop to $1.82 million, Contra Costa County with a 5% dip to $976,940 and San Mateo County with a 3% drop to $2.16 million.

Still, Bay Area home prices were up 5% in June compared to the same time a year ago. But some counties did see year-over-year drops, including San Mateo (-5%), San Francisco (-3%) and Contra Costa (-1%). -Mercury News

The sharp reversal comes after Bay Area housing prices soared amid the pandemic, as house hunters with remote work capabilities took advantage of record-low interest rates to engage in intense bidding wars

Now that mortgage rates are hovering around 5.5% for both jumbo and conforming 30-year fixed home loans, and not the 3% one could obtain during the height of the pandemic, the bottom looks to be dropping out of the market.

According to South Bay Realtor Mary Pope-Handy, the reduced demand for homes has caused houses to sit on the market longer as buyers and sellers play a game of chicken.

“It’s a lot of everybody waiting for the market to go up or go down,” she said, adding “At some point the logjam will break because people still need to buy and sell.”

That dynamic has likely contributed to home inventory increasing throughout the region. In Alameda County, the number of available listings has nearly doubled since last year.

Paddy Kehoe, a real estate agent with Compass in the East Bay, said active sellers now have to be more thoughtful about how they put homes on the market.

“If it is marginally overpriced it’s not going to sell,” Kehoe said. “Today, you have to know 100% what the price should be.” -Mercury News

“Going forward,” said Wei, the CAR economist , “we will continue to see some slowdown, but it’ll be in line with the traditional seasonal slowdown rather than the sudden dip in that price shift.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/29/2022 – 15:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/OdvNtQH Tyler Durden

“Black Women Who Once Hated Guns Are Embracing Them as Crime Soars”

From today’s article in the Washington Post (Peter Jamison) (reprinted, without a paywall, in the Philadelphia Tribune), documenting a trend that I generally very much favor:

Like many Black women in [the D.C. area] …, [Patrice Parker had] viewed guns for most of her life as the root of the violence that had wrecked countless lives in her community.

That changed, paradoxically, after her son was shot to death in a parking lot not far from her home. Exasperated with the police response and in despair over the sheer number of weapons on the streets, Parker decided there was only one way to protect what remained of her family. And that was to pick up a gun herself.

“I always felt like you needed to take the guns off the street. But the way things are now …. I don’t feel safe anymore,” she said. “You can’t trust nobody.”

Across America, Black women are taking up arms in unprecedented numbers…. Scarred—sometimes literally—by the firsthand consequences of gun violence and disenchanted with decades of urban gun-control policies that they regard as largely ineffective, some Black women in D.C. and other cities are embracing a view long espoused by Second Amendment activists: that only guns will make them safer….

As a child growing up in Southeast Washington during that era, Keeon Johnson learned to fear the weapons that routinely ended the lives of her neighbors.

“I wasn’t into guns at all,” Johnson said, “because we were told that guns were bad.”

Decades later, serving as the Democratic chairwoman of an Advisory Neighborhood Commission in Ward 8, Johnson began to wonder whether her faith in her party’s repeated promises of stricter gun control was misplaced…. [Eventually, s]he and her husband, Frenchie Johnson, … became NRA-certified instructors last year. Now they teach classes, catering specifically to Black people from D.C. and Prince George’s, out of their home in White Plains, Md….

One of their first students was Janae Hammett, 37, who had gone to elementary school with Johnson in D.C. and whose children’s father was shot to death in 2010. Given that history, Hammett said she was initially “on eggshells” around guns. But her comfort level increased the more she shot, and eventually she joined Johnson in forming the Second Amendment Sista Society, a club for Black women in the Washington region who are interested in guns.

Hammett said her transformation was driven, fundamentally, by desperation. Illegal guns, it seemed, were everywhere. If she couldn’t count on anyone else to protect her, why shouldn’t she legally own a gun to protect herself?

“I don’t think the government, police or anybody will ever get a hold of the illegal guns,” she said….

As a woman in a dangerous place, she had always feared she would be unable to defend her family. Her son’s killers were still out there. But with a gun, Parker felt less vulnerable, especially with the knowledge she had gained at the Choppa Community [a local gun range].

“They took the fear out of me,” she said.

Parker was waiting for the paperwork to come through on her concealed-carry license, and in the meantime she was trying to share her revelation with others….

The article cites two experts who argue that gun possession undermines safety rather than promoting it, but none who argues the contrary (and there certainly are prominent criminologists, such as Gary Kleck, who have indeed argued that gun possession generally tends to make the possessor safer). But in any case, I thought it was noteworthy that the article documented this thread, and took a generally positive tone on it.

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John Cleese: Wokeism Is the Enemy of Comedy—and Creativity


john-cleese

In a career that has spanned seven decades—and included classic shows and movies such as Monty Python’s Flying Circus, Fawlty Towers, Life of Brian, and A Fish Called Wanda—the comedian John Cleese has uproariously and relentlessly satirized politics and religion while stretching the boundaries of decorum and good taste like so many silly walks.

Now 82, Cleese—who studied law at Cambridge—has recently set his sights on political correctness and wokeism, which he says are the enemy not only of humor but of creative thinking in all areas of human activity.

I caught up with him at FreedomFest, the annual July gathering of libertarians in Las Vegas. Cleese was the keynote speaker, there to discuss creativity, which was the subject of his 2020 book of the same title. It’s a quick and excellent read, summarizing a wide range of psychological research on the topic and drawing from his own experiences.

It’s a myth “that creativity is something you have to be born with,” he argues. “Anyone can be creative.” He also contends that “you can teach creativity,” writing, “you can teach people how to create circumstances in which they will become creative.”

After giving a talk on the attitudes and habits of mind he believes are necessary for creativity to 2,500 attendees at FreedomFest, I interviewed Cleese from the main stage about the importance of freedom of thought and expression when it comes to being creative, why wokeism is the enemy of that, and why creativity is so important to progress and civilization.

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In Iowa, You No Longer Need a Permit To Sell Guns Across the Road from the Governor’s Mansion


Gun sales receipt

A new law signed by Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds limiting local governments’ power to regulate home businesses is letting her neighbors open a home-based gun dealership without the need for a city permit.

This past Wednesday, the Des Moines Register reports, the Des Moines Zoning Board of Adjustment was supposed to hold a public hearing to vet an application from homeowners Travis and Elizabeth Aslin to set up a home-based business that would sell firearms online and allow for on-site pickups.

The Aslins’ plan for their home-based business—which would be located just across the street from the Iowa governor’s mansion—set off a storm of controversy from the neighbors, who argued it could lead to an increase in crime and reduction in property values.

“There is a potential for weapons that can be purchased and fired from this property to have a range of nearly 2000 [feet]—this affect hundreds of houses, businesses, daycares, domestic violence shelters, a school, and the governor’s mansion,” reads the petition, which was signed some 170 people.

This kind of organized public opposition is often enough to sink conditional use applications. But not in this case.

The day before the Zoning Board of Adjustment was supposed to hold its public hearing on the Aslins permit, the board abruptly took it off the agenda.

Erik Lundy, a city zoning enforcement officer, issued a letter explaining that the Aslins’ proposed firearm selling business qualified as a “no-impact home-based business” under the new home-based business bill signed into law by Reynolds in June.

Travis Aslin also told Axios that his business was more of a hobby and that he’s sold only two guns in the last five years from his previous home.

The new law prohibits local governments from banning no-impact businesses, provided they don’t generate off-street parking and the business activity takes place inside the house and can’t be viewed by the neighbors. The law also prevents local governments from requiring no-impact home businesses to obtain permits, licenses, or other permissions.

Lundy said the state law prevented the city from requiring the Aslins to get a permit. His letter notes that Travis Aslin’s firearm business is already regulated by the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, which can conduct yearly unannounced inspections.

Lundy’s letter means the couple can now go ahead with their business. Some of the neighborhood opponents told the Des Moines Register they were planning on appealing the zoning board’s decision and will take it all the way to the local district court if necessary.

The typical conditional use permit controversy normally goes the other way: The property owner is forced to file endless appeals trying to convince the neighbors and city officials that they should be allowed to do what they want with their property.

Iowa’s new protections for home-based businesses have turned that dynamic on its head. It’s now local NIMBYs that have to spin their wheels and spend their money, arguing a new home-based business will be a detriment to the neighborhood that should be stopped.

Fortunately, Iowa’s new home-based business law forces local authorities to focus on the actual impacts of businesses on their neighbors. That pushes local government regulation toward its proper role of combating legitimate nuisances, while otherwise leaving people free to use their property as they see fit.

And if that means a gun dealer can set up shop next to the governor’s house, all the better.

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Short Circuit: A Roundup of Recent Federal Court Decisions

Please enjoy the latest edition of Short Circuit, a weekly feature written by a bunch of people at the Institute for Justice.

New on the Short Circuit podcast: Atlanta criminal defense attorney Andrew Fleischman joins the panel to talk absolute prosecutorial immunity and why the Fulton County DA’s hotly anticipated prosecution of Donald Trump would almost certainly be removed to federal court (where a jury pool would have slightly different leanings than one from Atlanta). Big spoiler: It’s because of the War of 1812.

  • After a jury convicts Libyan man on four counts for his role in 2012 Benghazi terrorist attack (acquitting on another 14 counts), the district court sentences him to 22 years—despite sentencing guidelines that suggest life plus 10 years. D.C. Circuit: It’s okay that the judge didn’t sentence him based on the conduct he was acquitted of, but even setting that aside the downward departure from the guidelines is unreasonable. Judge Millett, concurring: It’s still kind of crazy we add years to people’s sentences for conduct they were acquitted of.
  • Before a federal agency issues a rule, it must go through the lengthy notice and comment process. And if an agency wants to repeal a rule it must do the same thing. But what if just before a new president takes office, an agency says it’s issuing a final rule that will become final in a few weeks, and the new administration repeals the rule before that time comes (as apparently happened in 2017, 2009, 2001, and 1993—to name just a few). Should the agency have gone through notice and comment before repealing? The majority of a D.C. Circuit panel says yes and characterizes the gov’t’s argument to the contrary to be that such a rule “exists in a state of superposition like Schrödinger’s cat—simultaneously law and not law until the agency publishes or withdraws it.”
  • Another week, another federal circuit opinion—this time from the D.C. Circuit—affirming the FDA’s decision to deny pre-market approval to thousands of vaping products.
  • Man out front of the Bronx County Hall of Justice—with a sign that reads “Jury Info” and pamphlets that say “Google Jury Nullification”—is arrested under a statute prohibiting disseminating information within 200 feet of a courthouse “concerning the conduct of a trial being held in such courthouse.” After being released, he sues under the First Amendment, winning an injunction in district court. Second Circuit: Well, first of all, the guy has standing. I mean, he was arrested. And the statute’s definitely bad as applied to what he was doing and others doing similar stuff. But it probably isn’t unconstitutional as a facial matter. Injunction vacated and case remanded. Partial dissent: The statute’s so bad it’s facially overbroad in a couple of different ways.
  • Groups managing nursing homes and assisted living facilities throughout the Northeast clash with unions representing employees at the facilities. Unions allege that the facilities engaged in a slew of unfair labor practices, such as improperly terminating employees and suppressing union communications. The facilities allege that the unions vandalized the facilities, brought on an HHS audit, and engaged in other extortionate behavior amounting to a RICO violation. District court: It’s never RICO. Third Circuit: It actually might be here.
  • Wise County, Va. prison guards and inmate get into a physical altercation following a dispute over an empty peanut-butter jar. Inmate promptly and repeatedly seeks videos of the encounter. Zoinks! Some of the videos weren’t preserved. Spoliation? District court: Don’t worry about it. The videos that exist supports the officers’ testimony. Fourth Circuit: We’re worried about it.
  • Following a trial on whether Virginia Beach’s system of at-large voting districts violated the Voting Rights Act—but before judgment—the Virginia Assembly outlawed the system. Fourth Circuit: So the case is moot. But since you’ve done most of the work you would do to challenge the new system, we’ll remand and the trial court can decide whether you can amend your complaint. Dissent: The new law didn’t fix everything, so the case is not moot.
  • For over two months and without a warrant, DHS agents constantly surveil the front and back of Houston home by means of cameras placed on poles outside. A Fourth Amendment violation? The Fifth Circuit says no; anyone strolling by could take in the same view. No need to suppress the evidence; defendant’s 18-year sentence for his part in a marijuana-growing operation is affirmed, as is the forfeiture of his home, boat, weapons, and $7.2 mil. (N.B.: For an opposing view, might we recommend this IJ amicus brief?)
  • Sabine County, Tex. deputy sheriff conducting welfare check allegedly makes a series of sexually charged comments and sexually assaults woman. She files a complaint (at least the fourth filed against him) for sexual misconduct with the Texas Rangers, he’s indicted, and she sues. District court: No constitutional violation here. Sheriff: Qualified immunity. Fifth Circuit: Both of you are very, very wrong.
  • “1-1-1!” No, that isn’t an emergency number or a Herman Cain campaign promise. It’s the breakdown of this Fifth Circuit case brought by disabled students who wanted to enjoin the Texas Attorney General’s order forbidding schools from issuing mask mandates. One judge has a lot to say about how masks didn’t give the plaintiffs standing, one judge dissents, and one judge oddly only concurs on the facts and the redressability prong of standing.
  • Guards at a Louisiana private prison empty a can of pepper spray on a prisoner and repeatedly drop him on his head before taking him to the “Four-Way,” the one corner of the prison that cameras don’t reach, for two hours. The man later dies of a skull fracture. District court: No one’s liable for nothin’. Fifth Circuit (over dissent): We review the facts in the plaintiffs’ favor. The officers used excessive force and they worked in concert to cause the injuries that killed this man. Also, both the city and corporation knew about these cruel practices, and they did nothing to stop it, so those claims survive too.
  • District court: It’s obvious that jail officers shouldn’t throw scalding water on detainees, and here are some prior cases (about chaining a prisoner to a post and choking a restrained detainee unconscious and leaving him to die) that clearly establish the law on that. Sixth Circuit (unpublished): And since there’s no video or anything that shows otherwise, we have to treat the detainee’s allegations as fact. No qualified immunity for this Grayson County, Ky, jail officer.
  • Plaintiffs: Columbus, Ohio’s Historic Preservation Code lets a small band of private citizens dictate what we do with our own property in arbitrary ways. Sixth Circuit: Actually, Columbus’s Historic Preservation Code lets a duly-appointed commission (which may—may!—even include lawyers or bankers) issue totally cool commands that you jerkwads should have just obeyed.
  • When Peninsula Township, Mich. wineries challenge local ordinances that restrict wine sales and prohibit hosting weddings, among other things, a local NIMBY group seeks to intervene in the lawsuit. The district court tosses their motion and rules that the ordinances are either unconstitutional or preempted by state law. Sixth Circuit: Not so fast. Even though the township strenuously fought the lawsuit, the NIMBYs’ interests (property values, quiet enjoyment of their homes, viability of their farms) are different from the township’s (preserving the public fisc). Let them in.
  • Can Loyola Chicago undergrad students get a refund on tuition because they were deprived “of in-person instruction and access to on-campus facilities” while COVID-19 had shut everything down? Seventh Circuit: Some of their breach of contract claims are cognizable under Illinois law and may proceed.
  • In 2021, the feds put a stop to what had been a regular July 4th fireworks display at Mt. Rushmore, denying South Dakota officials’ request for a permit due to COVID-19, wildfire risks, and tribal opposition, among other things. (And in 2022, the feds deny the permit again.) Was the denial arbitrary and capricious? We’d need a time machine to let you do the fireworks now, says the Eighth Circuit, and who’s to say whether the permit will be denied in 2023 and why? This case is moot.
  • St. Louis man guffaws at rally by then-presidential candidate Donald Trump, leading Trump to command the crowd to “Get him out of here!” He’s arrested and charged with disturbing the peace but acquitted at trial. The man then sues the police for arresting him without probable cause. Eighth Circuit: Even if they didn’t have actual probable cause, they did have arguable probable cause, and that’s enough to give everyone involved qualified immunity.
  • Allegation: 7-year-old with bruises and abrasions tells school that her father beat her with a belt. When Des Moines, Iowa detectives come to her home with a social worker, her mother declines to let them in or bring her out. After six minutes of arguing, the mother is arrested for “interference with official acts.” Eighth Circuit: The officers could either go get a warrant or look for an exigent circumstance to enter the home without one, but what they couldn’t do was arrest her. Her “passive failure to cooperate” did not even create arguable probable cause that she was interfering with an official act. No qualified immunity.
  • The Eighth Circuit‘s said it before, and it’s sayin’ it again: The St. Louis officers who rounded up scores of allegedly peaceful protestors using a kettling technique are not entitled to qualified immunity for seizing the protestors. But since the plaintiffs did not adequately allege excessive force, QI will preclude those claims. Dissent: The complaint here is almost identical to the last case, where we said no QI for excessive force. So the conclusion should be the same here.
  • Allegation: Property owner overhears Honolulu building inspector say that he’s causing costly delays to renovation project because the owner hired non-Hawaiian contractors. Unconstitutional interference with his right to make contracts? Could be, says the Ninth Circuit. Even if the delays were justifiable, the right to be free from racial animus in public decisions is clearly established. No qualified immunity. (N.B.: Interested readers might note that the suit proceeds under Section 1981, and that at least 10 other circuits say that Section 1981 provides no private right of action for damages against state actors.)
  • Washington law prohibits displaying a weapon in a manner that “warrants alarm for the safety of other persons.” So did police have probable cause to arrest a Yakima County man after receiving reports that the man displayed a firearm? Ninth Circuit: Not in an open-carry state like Washington. The officers should have confirmed whether he displayed the weapon threateningly or alarmingly. All evidence found after the arrest (including an IED in the man’s car) are suppressed.
  • Are Twitter or Facebook pages maintained by public officials public fora under the First Amendment? The Ninth Circuit weighs in on this fast-growing doctrinal area (the answer is “sometimes”) but fails to acknowledge the really thorny question: the brewing circuit split over whether they’re “public fora” or “public forums.”
  • Allegation: Man convicted of sex offense at retrial is sentenced to a minimum of 10 years, which he has already served. Which means that under Washington state law, he’s to receive a parole hearing within 120 days. But parole board members blow that deadline by nine months. (The hearing ultimately results in his release.) Negligence? False imprisonment? Ninth Circuit: Can’t say. Parole board members are quasi-judges and thus protected by absolute immunity.
  • Allegation: Man forgets to remove belt, sets off Jackson Hole, Wyo. airport body scanner. TSA agents refuse to let him take off the belt and go through again, insisting instead on a groin pat, which the man equally insists he does not consent to. He’s arrested by local police, one of whom says that his stay in jail (which ultimately lasted three hours) is being prolonged because he keeps asking for a lawyer. Tenth Circuit: Drawing all factual inferences in favor of the plaintiff, as we must at this stage of the case, the gov’t says that’s not why his stay was prolonged. Case dismissed. And furthermore, his claims against the municipality (which he pursued without amending to the district court’s satisfaction) are so meritless that $55k sanctions against him and his attorneys are merited. (IJ filed an amicus brief arguing the sanctions aren’t merited.)
  • Moreover, holds the Tenth Circuit (same case as above), there is no prior case clearly establishing that an officer wrenching a handcuffed person’s wrist, injuring it, without provocation and in retaliation for their speech, would “chill a person of ordinary firmness” from continuing to engage in protected speech. (Nor is there such a case now.)
  • In response to a shooting spree that injured several children, Ocala, Fla. police chief—along with volunteer police chaplains—help to organize and sponsor a prayer vigil in the town square. Humanists and atheists attend the vigil and then sue, alleging Establishment Clause violations. Eleventh Circuit: And they have standing. But while this case was on appeal the Supreme Court killed the Lemon test that previously governed, so we’ll send this back down for reconsideration.

“He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance.” Anyway, apropos of nothing, we really can’t recommend this longform article on abusive code enforcement by Radley Balko in the Nashville Scene enough. Nashville is bad. Memphis is bad. Lots of other places are bad. It is bad to eat out people’s substance.

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The Dark Knight Rises Was a Cautionary Tale About Populism


Batman

In the weeks after the release of The Dark Knight Rises, which was dominating the American box office 10 years ago this month, director Christopher Nolan steadfastly denied that he’d embedded a political perspective in the final film of his massively successful Batman trilogy.

“What we’re really trying to do is show the cracks of society, show the conflicts that somebody would try to wedge open,” he told Rolling Stone in a response to a question about whether the film’s villain, Bane, leading an uprising against Gotham City’s 1 percent was explicitly mirroring (and criticizing) the then-relevant Occupy Wall Street movement. “We’re going to get wildly different interpretations of what the film is supporting and not supporting, but it’s not doing any of those things. It’s just telling a story.”

That story, however, is undeniably imbued with political symbolism. Nolan’s final Batman film builds on themes that were central to both Batman Begins and The Dark Knight—the blurry line between heroic individualism and chaotic vigilantism and questions about the nature of justice—but the movie’s fulcrum is a parable about the dark places that populism can lead.

Or, rather, where it can be led. “If the populist movement is manipulated by somebody who is evil, that surely is a criticism of the evil person,” Nolan said in that same Rolling Stone interview, tipping his hand ever so slightly. “That has happened to other societies throughout history, many times, so why not here? Why not Gotham?”

Indeed, The Dark Knight Rises is not a narrowly drawn critique of the Occupy movement but is better understood as a full-blown critique of populism in general—and, more accurately, of the ways that populist movements are cynically used by leaders who seek power for themselves rather than as genuine expressions of the will of the people. In that regard, the movie is perhaps even more relevant now than when it was released.

It’s no accident, surely, that Bane’s revolution begins with a fiery speech encouraging the people of Gotham to storm a prison. Nor that the revolution soon devolves into show trials and public executions. The French Revolution, perhaps the ultimate historical example of populism gone awry, is a recurring motif throughout the film—near the end, Police Commissioner Jim Gordon eulogizes Batman by quoting from A Tale of Two Cities, just in case you hadn’t already gotten the point.

At first blush, that parallel might lend a sort of old-school conservative ethos to the movie. “What passes for a right-wing movie these days is The Dark Knight Rises, which submits the rather modest premise that, irritating though the rich may be, actually killing them and taking all their stuff might be excessive,” quipped New York magazine’s Jonathan Chait in his review of the movie.

But it’s overly simplistic to view The Dark Knight Rises as a warning about the chaos that could descend if the institutions running society—the prisons, the political leaders, the police—are torn down.

After all, Nolan spent the first two films in the franchise highlighting various ways in which the institutions at the center of Gotham’s society are nearly hopelessly corrupt. Bruce Wayne is initially motivated to take on the cowl and cape in Batman Begins in order to confront a criminal mob that’s untouchable by law enforcement. That corruption is personified in the fall of reform-minded District Attorney Harvey Dent in The Dark Knight. Those with the power to make a difference are either gone (like Wayne’s parents) or indifferent, Rachel Dawes explains to Bruce in the first film. Gotham, we are repeatedly told by various characters throughout the trilogy, is beyond saving.

At the same time, we’re shown that the people of Gotham are fundamentally good. The most memorable example: When given the chance by the Joker to blow up a ferry full of convicted criminals in order to save themselves from the same fate, a group of random Gotham civilians refuses to do so.

To read The Dark Knight Rises as a conservative warning about the importance of institutions and the dangers of mobs would require throwing out much of the moral framework that Nolan built into the trilogy. Something more subtle is afoot.

In fact, it’s the institutional corruption that invites Bane’s and Talia al-Ghul’s plot to destroy the city in the third film. That the villains have chosen a populist uprising as the form of Gotham’s destruction is a cruel joke perpetrated on both Batman (who insists on the fundamental virtue of the people, despite the mob violence) and the people of the city themselves, who only believe they’re seizing power but will actually be obliterated. “As I terrorize Gotham, I will feed its people hope to poison their souls,” Bane explains at one point.

To put it all together, then, the movie is a warning about populism and about the ways in which corrupt, failing institutions invite populist takeovers that are little more than cover for authoritarians. In the end, it’s not the police, the banks, or the military that can be trusted to stand against such a threat. It’s actually just people, motivated to do what’s right even without a governmental structure around them. It’s not just Batman who thwarts Bane’s and al-Ghul’s plot; it’s an entire resistance movement that slowly rises from within Gotham (notably, this happens without Batman’s help, as he is detained elsewhere for much of the movie’s second act).

“He may not be a hero of the Randian variety, but Bruce Wayne’s willingness to sacrifice for the good of others is a cinematic depiction of the best that free humans are capable of,” Reason‘s Stephanie Slade wrote for U.S. News & World Report shortly after the film was released a decade ago. “His heroics underscore one of the foundational precepts of the libertarian movement. It doesn’t take big government to make the world a better place—it takes people choosing to do the right thing.”

Of course, having a flying Batmobile never hurts.

In the 10 years since The Dark Knight Rises hit theaters, Batman has already been rebooted on the big screen twice—as a brooding, warped loner with a vendetta against Superman and as a…brooding, warped loner with a vendetta against criminals. With his wealth, cool gadgets, and penchant for vigilantism, Bruce Wayne is always going to be something of a reactionary figure, and the newer films have (as Nolan’s did, though to a lesser degree) questioned whether Batman should be seen as a hero or problematic billionaire with a mental disorder.

But Nolan’s version of the caped crusader has staying power that other iterations of the character lack, in no small part because of how his Batman films grappled with questions about what makes society work—and what could make it fail.

In the first two movies, Batman’s foes fail in their efforts to use fear and chaos to destroy Gotham. In the third, they try politics—and for a while, it succeeds.

The post <em>The Dark Knight Rises</em> Was a Cautionary Tale About Populism appeared first on Reason.com.

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The Dark Knight Rises Was a Cautionary Tale About Populism


Batman

In the weeks after the release of The Dark Knight Rises, which was dominating the American box office 10 years ago this month, director Christopher Nolan steadfastly denied that he’d embedded a political perspective in the final film of his massively successful Batman trilogy.

“What we’re really trying to do is show the cracks of society, show the conflicts that somebody would try to wedge open,” he told Rolling Stone in a response to a question about whether the film’s villain, Bane, leading an uprising against Gotham City’s 1 percent was explicitly mirroring (and criticizing) the then-relevant Occupy Wall Street movement. “We’re going to get wildly different interpretations of what the film is supporting and not supporting, but it’s not doing any of those things. It’s just telling a story.”

That story, however, is undeniably imbued with political symbolism. Nolan’s final Batman film builds on themes that were central to both Batman Begins and The Dark Knight—the blurry line between heroic individualism and chaotic vigilantism and questions about the nature of justice—but the movie’s fulcrum is a parable about the dark places that populism can lead.

Or, rather, where it can be led. “If the populist movement is manipulated by somebody who is evil, that surely is a criticism of the evil person,” Nolan said in that same Rolling Stone interview, tipping his hand ever so slightly. “That has happened to other societies throughout history, many times, so why not here? Why not Gotham?”

Indeed, The Dark Knight Rises is not a narrowly drawn critique of the Occupy movement but is better understood as a full-blown critique of populism in general—and, more accurately, of the ways that populist movements are cynically used by leaders who seek power for themselves rather than as genuine expressions of the will of the people. In that regard, the movie is perhaps even more relevant now than when it was released.

It’s no accident, surely, that Bane’s revolution begins with a fiery speech encouraging the people of Gotham to storm a prison. Nor that the revolution soon devolves into show trials and public executions. The French Revolution, perhaps the ultimate historical example of populism gone awry, is a recurring motif throughout the film—near the end, Police Commissioner Jim Gordon eulogizes Batman by quoting from A Tale of Two Cities, just in case you hadn’t already gotten the point.

At first blush, that parallel might lend a sort of old-school conservative ethos to the movie. “What passes for a right-wing movie these days is The Dark Knight Rises, which submits the rather modest premise that, irritating though the rich may be, actually killing them and taking all their stuff might be excessive,” quipped New York magazine’s Jonathan Chait in his review of the movie.

But it’s overly simplistic to view The Dark Knight Rises as a warning about the chaos that could descend if the institutions running society—the prisons, the political leaders, the police—are torn down.

After all, Nolan spent the first two films in the franchise highlighting various ways in which the institutions at the center of Gotham’s society are nearly hopelessly corrupt. Bruce Wayne is initially motivated to take on the cowl and cape in Batman Begins in order to confront a criminal mob that’s untouchable by law enforcement. That corruption is personified in the fall of reform-minded District Attorney Harvey Dent in The Dark Knight. Those with the power to make a difference are either gone (like Wayne’s parents) or indifferent, Rachel Dawes explains to Bruce in the first film. Gotham, we are repeatedly told by various characters throughout the trilogy, is beyond saving.

At the same time, we’re shown that the people of Gotham are fundamentally good. The most memorable example: When given the chance by the Joker to blow up a ferry full of convicted criminals in order to save themselves from the same fate, a group of random Gotham civilians refuses to do so.

To read The Dark Knight Rises as a conservative warning about the importance of institutions and the dangers of mobs would require throwing out much of the moral framework that Nolan built into the trilogy. Something more subtle is afoot.

In fact, it’s the institutional corruption that invites Bane’s and Talia al-Ghul’s plot to destroy the city in the third film. That the villains have chosen a populist uprising as the form of Gotham’s destruction is a cruel joke perpetrated on both Batman (who insists on the fundamental virtue of the people, despite the mob violence) and the people of the city themselves, who only believe they’re seizing power but will actually be obliterated. “As I terrorize Gotham, I will feed its people hope to poison their souls,” Bane explains at one point.

To put it all together, then, the movie is a warning about populism and about the ways in which corrupt, failing institutions invite populist takeovers that are little more than cover for authoritarians. In the end, it’s not the police, the banks, or the military that can be trusted to stand against such a threat. It’s actually just people, motivated to do what’s right even without a governmental structure around them. It’s not just Batman who thwarts Bane’s and al-Ghul’s plot; it’s an entire resistance movement that slowly rises from within Gotham (notably, this happens without Batman’s help, as he is detained elsewhere for much of the movie’s second act).

“He may not be a hero of the Randian variety, but Bruce Wayne’s willingness to sacrifice for the good of others is a cinematic depiction of the best that free humans are capable of,” Reason‘s Stephanie Slade wrote for U.S. News & World Report shortly after the film was released a decade ago. “His heroics underscore one of the foundational precepts of the libertarian movement. It doesn’t take big government to make the world a better place—it takes people choosing to do the right thing.”

Of course, having a flying Batmobile never hurts.

In the 10 years since The Dark Knight Rises hit theaters, Batman has already been rebooted on the big screen twice—as a brooding, warped loner with a vendetta against Superman and as a…brooding, warped loner with a vendetta against criminals. With his wealth, cool gadgets, and penchant for vigilantism, Bruce Wayne is always going to be something of a reactionary figure, and the newer films have (as Nolan’s did, though to a lesser degree) questioned whether Batman should be seen as a hero or problematic billionaire with a mental disorder.

But Nolan’s version of the caped crusader has staying power that other iterations of the character lack, in no small part because of how his Batman films grappled with questions about what makes society work—and what could make it fail.

In the first two movies, Batman’s foes fail in their efforts to use fear and chaos to destroy Gotham. In the third, they try politics—and for a while, it succeeds.

The post <em>The Dark Knight Rises</em> Was a Cautionary Tale About Populism appeared first on Reason.com.

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Shakira Going to Trial in Spanish Tax Evasion Case


A blonde-haired woman with curly hair speaks to a reporter holding a red microphone

Despite receiving a plea deal offer to settle allegations of tax evasion, Colombian superstar Shakira has told a Spanish investigating judge that she wants to go to trial, affirming her innocence in the face of a tax evasion inquiry that has clouded the performer for over four years.

The singer, best known for her crossover English hits like “Whenever, Wherever,” “Hips Don’t Lie,” and “She Wolf,” and a prolific Spanish-language discography recorded across three decades, has been under investigation by Spanish tax authorities since her name appeared in the Paradise Papers in 2017. Prosecutors have alleged that she claimed residence in the Bahamas while living in Spain from 2012 to 2014. In 2021, a Spanish judge found “evidence of criminality,” allowing the case to proceed to trial. Repeated attempts by the pop star to have the case dismissed have all failed.

Prosecutors offered her a deal back in 2021, but she turned it down, alleging that they were “uncompromising” and applied “improper methods” to pressure her into accepting a deal. After months of failed negotiations, she opted for a jury trial, asserting that the truth will prevail. She “trusts her innocence and chooses to leave the issue in the hands of the law,” her P.R. firm, Llorente y Cuenca, said in a statement.

Shakira isn’t the first Spanish celebrity to find herself in hot water with Spanish tax authorities. Over the last two decades, many Spanish singers and actors have found themselves embroiled in financial crimes investigations initiated by zealous prosecutors. Spanish singer Isabel Pantoja famously went to prison for two years over her then-boyfriend’s money laundering schemes. Julio Iglesias has also found himself under investigation repeatedly as Spanish officials have scrutinized his vast personal fortune. These investigations have increased as Spain has beefed up its tax evasion laws and enforcement mechanisms in recent years.

Even Spain’s royal family has been subject to aggressive tax investigations. In 2014, King Felipe VI’s sister Princess Cristina was put under investigation for tax evasion, causing her to lose her noble titles. Former King Juan Carlos I, who restored Spain’s democracy following the death of fascist dictator Francisco Franco in 1975, was subjected to a judicial investigation over unpaid taxes, paying 4.4 million euros in back taxes in 2021.

Shakira’s decision to go to trial, rather than take a settlement or deal, has also upped the stakes. Prosecutors are now seeking an eight-year prison sentence against the singer, as well as a 23 million euro fine, in addition, of course, to the amount of taxes she allegedly failed to pay. Like in the United States, pursuing a jury trial, despite it being a constitutional right in Spain, often punishes Spanish defendants by increasing possible sanctions against them.

The post Shakira Going to Trial in Spanish Tax Evasion Case appeared first on Reason.com.

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Will The Fed Bring Back That 70’s Show? Stay Tuned

Will The Fed Bring Back That 70’s Show? Stay Tuned

Authored by Nicholas Baum via The Mises Institute,

Those who don’t learn from the past, as the old adage goes, are doomed to repeat it. Even in the realm of something as seemingly abstract and technical as economic policy, this saying holds true. Prices are soaring in all areas of consumption, from the grocery store aisle to the pump, with the United States experiencing its highest rate of inflation since 1981.

Yet this, in turn, brings up the question of what caused inflation to be even higher over forty years ago. The reason why inflation was so high back then is the same reason behind why we’re experiencing similar levels of it today. That is, an incredibly loose monetary policy employed by the Fed, often as the result of political pressures from the White House.

As we’ll see, however, history also provides a solution to the problem of inflation, but it will require a sense of bravery and resilience particularly in Fed Chairman Jay Powell in a manner that has not been seen in forty years, under then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker.

Paul Volcker and The Great Inflation

If today’s inflation seems bad, consider the years between 1965 and 1982, a period when inflation averaged 6.7% a year and became so unbearable that the era became known as “The Great Inflation.” This nearly two-decade long spell of soaring prices was certainly the product of many factors, yet the first and most prominent undoubtedly being an excessively loose, and misguided, monetary policy.

Consider the graph below, taken from the Federal Reserve Economic Database:

The blue line shows percent growth in the money supply while the red line shows the rate of inflation, measured every half-year. Clearly, there’s a general correlation where changes in inflation follow changes in the money supply. The correlation may not be very tight at times, but keep in mind that economists believe that it takes up to six months for inflation to reflect changes in the money supply.

Given this information, it’s clear that the Great Inflation was largely motivated by monetary policy, reflecting both the incompetence and flawed incentives of central banking. Take the beginning of the crisis for example; future Fed Chair Alan Greenspan writes:

In 1964, (President Lyndon B. Johnson) bullied the Federal Reserve into keeping interest rates as low as possible at the same time as delivering a powerful fiscal stimulus by signing tax cuts into law… the combination of tax cuts and low interest rates began to produce inflationary pressure.

Indeed, inflation grew from 4.77 percent annually between 1960 and 1963 to 7.82 percent from 1964 to the end of the decade, yet the outlook only worsened. The large spike in money supply growth starting around 1970 was largely due to President Richard Nixon’s similar tactics of pressuring the Fed into cutting interest rates, especially in the buildup to his re-election in 1972.

The Nixon tapes record several conversations of the President with then-Fed Chair Arthur Burns. These recordings include the President laughing about Burns’ claim that the Fed is independent and exclaiming that “(many elections) have been lost on the issue of unemployment. None has been lost on the issue of inflation.”

Matters were made worse when Nixon readied a series of anonymous leaks about the Fed, including plans to increase White House control over the central bank and even a false story that Burns wanted a pay raise when he actually suggested a pay cut.

Burns caved into this pressure. Interest rates fell from 9 percent at the start of 1970 to 3.8 percent by the first Presidential primary in March 1972, and the money supply grew at an average of 9.7 percent per year. Of course, while Nixon and Burns neglected it, inflation grew from 7.13 percent in 1970 to 10.6 percent in 1973.

As the 1970’s progressed, inflation worsened as it continued to mirror high money supply growth, as the graph confirms, with its height towards the end of the decade reflecting nervous incompetence at the Fed. By 1978, the Fed Chair was G. William Miller, widely regarded to be the worst Fed Chair in history, who barely moved interest rates and allowed money supply growth to continue around 8 percent annually while inflation reached around a staggering 11.5 percent during his tenure.

By the turn of the 1980’s, it had become evident that soaring inflation was both caused and continued by a loose monetary policy, and that something had to have been done to address the situation. Against this backdrop came the revolutionary Fed Chair Paul Volcker, who would provide the ultimate solution to the inflationary problem.

The solution, of course, was rather simple; raise interest rates and decrease the money supply.

This piece of Econ 101 logic was certainly known to Volcker’s predecessors at the Fed, but they simply couldn’t go through with it because of sheer political pressure to keep interest rates low.

The previous Fed Chairs, fearing for their jobs and the future of their agency, were essentially forced into neglecting inflation.

Soaring prices, of course, is a huge problem to the average voter, but as Nixon reminded Burns, many elections “have been lost on the issue of unemployment. None has been lost on the issue of inflation.”

Volcker resisted, however, and even as President Jimmy Carter publicly criticized his tight policy and President Ronald Raegan’s Chief of Staff James Baker privately pressured Volcker into giving up, the Fed Chair tightened interest rates from 10.94 percent at his arrival in August 1979 to an unprecedented 19 percent by the turn of 1981.

Volcker demonstrated a sense of bravery and commitment never before seen at the Fed, resisting political pressures and nerves to address rampant inflation. Consequently, inflation began its gradual decline, by some estimates reaching healthy levels of around 3 percent by 1983.

Jay Powell and Inflation Today

In the words of famed economist Milton Friedman, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” What the brief history lesson of the US’s last encounter with high inflation shows is that the primary culprit behind soaring prices is the Fed itself, and not necessarily because Fed officials don’t care about inflation or don’t know how to fix it, but because they fear the political repercussions of addressing it.

All it took was one brave Fed Chairman, Paul Volcker, to finally put an end to the dilemma, but since then inflation has obviously reappeared. The Fed’s response to the brief recession triggered by government lockdowns saw the injection of over $4 trillion in additional money into the economy, and an almost 20 percent increase in the money supply in 2020 alone. High levels of inflation have, of course, followed this.

Now, it’s up to Fed Chair Jay Powell to right the wrongs of his leadership two years ago. Although the logic is simple, raising interest rates and choking inflation is no easy task, and Powell will certainly be on the receiving end of pressure both from Biden and Congress.

This makes the present moment all the more critical as the US faces the possibility of an inflation-induced recession. Jay Powell will need to replicate the bravery found in Paul Volcker forty years ago.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/29/2022 – 14:44

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